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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: Yes it is.

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Speaker 1: It's good without further ado.

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Speaker 3: That's what the game is all about. A sudden you

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Speaker 3: feel like you can't miss.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna up there.

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Speaker 2: Could you make that? If you try that again? Absolutely

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Speaker 2: trying to.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast NBA Playoff Edition. I

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Speaker 1: am your host, Matt Moore, Senior NBA Writer, joined as

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Speaker 1: always by Raheem Palmer and Brandon Anderson. A reminder that

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Speaker 1: all the odds today are brought to you by bet MGM,

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Speaker 1: the official odds provider of the Action Network podcast, and

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Speaker 1: that you can get all of our analysis as well

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Speaker 1: as the numbers that we talk about in the Action

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Speaker 1: Network app, which is the absolute best way to track

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Speaker 1: your bets all of our analysis. I've got a piece

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Speaker 1: up on Ben Simmons and the best odds to bet

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Speaker 1: on for Ben Simmons. Next low cation over at DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: I've got analysis coming up on DeAndre Ayton. We're going

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Speaker 1: to talk about the lottery after a while. We got

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Speaker 1: articles up from Brandon Anderson about the Lottery and a

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Speaker 1: lot more to come on that. And you could do

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Speaker 1: things like track Brandon Anderson is he attempts to hit

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Speaker 1: a was it seven or ten on the parlay that you,

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Speaker 1: for some reason attempted to go for the old You

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Speaker 1: realize if you would have hit that parlay, Brandon, that

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Speaker 1: the amount of smug that you would have put out

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Speaker 1: on this podcast would have literally caused a black hole

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Speaker 1: that imploded the planets. I am so grateful the Hawks

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Speaker 1: won that game, not just because I had Hawks plus

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Speaker 1: seven and a half, but because and by the way

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Speaker 1: I sprinkled money line too well Victor lap of my own,

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Speaker 1: but because if you would hit that, I genuinely fear

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Speaker 1: for the state of our planet.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I uh to be honest what I was thinking

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Speaker 4: going into the game, and it clearly didn't play out

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Speaker 4: this way, But my thinking was, these are two exhausted

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Speaker 4: teams coming up with Game seven. We know how rahiem

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Speaker 4: hates teams coming off of Game seven, So I was

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Speaker 4: ready for just this slog, this slow defensive game on

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Speaker 4: our props tool, which you gotta get. If you're not

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Speaker 4: using the props tool, I don't know what you're doing.

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Speaker 4: Our props tool was all over all these defensive props,

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Speaker 4: like every player that you could go over, steals, blocks, anything.

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Speaker 4: So I was like, well, what if I just try

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Speaker 4: to make a single parlay with a whole bunch of

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Speaker 4: steals and blocks. So then I started putting together in

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Speaker 4: my parlay, and you can't put steels and blocks in

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Speaker 4: the parlays, and so I just started to get creative, like, Okay,

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Speaker 4: well if we get this slow, slog, boring, awful game,

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Speaker 4: what's it going to look like? Well, it's gonna be

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Speaker 4: a little scoring, so let's let's take the under. But

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Speaker 4: let's really take the under and go with the alt under.

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Speaker 4: So I started shooting that down getting get a lot

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Speaker 4: of rebounds. I started grabbing the capella and the honest rebounds.

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Speaker 4: Just started kind of build the narrative, what's the game

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Speaker 4: look like? I thought the Bucks would win. I think

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Speaker 4: we all thought the Bucks would win. But if it's

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Speaker 4: gonna be a low scoring game, you need a close game. YadA, YadA, YadA.

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Speaker 4: Send him up to two hundred and fifty to one,

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Speaker 4: and it came out of exactly two fifty one. I

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Speaker 4: was like, that's a sign it's got to play twound

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Speaker 4: and fifty to one even. And uh, you know, we

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Speaker 4: had a shot. We had a shot with with about

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Speaker 4: four and a half minutes left. What we needed was

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Speaker 4: teams to go absolutely ice cold, and not the Trey

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Speaker 4: Young kind of ice cold where you're just shimmy and

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Speaker 4: shoot all over people. What I needed was four more

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Speaker 4: points two from each team, and one of them had

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Speaker 4: to be a bucket from Clint Cappella and that's it,

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Speaker 4: and then we would have won. A twohundred fifty one parlay.

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Speaker 4: Didn't quite happen, and you know the high.

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Speaker 1: Keep Look look these look these these single game parlays,

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Speaker 1: which you can also do a bet MGM. By the way,

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Speaker 1: the official OWS provider of the actual OW podcast. They're

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Speaker 1: not like if you're doing like major like we're not

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Speaker 1: a that we talked about these. It's just like weird

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Speaker 1: degenerates and having fun like that is it? Because like

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Speaker 1: as much as I want to criticize Brandon, I may

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Speaker 1: may have seen him do that. And then over at

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Speaker 1: bet MGM, put a fifteen to one on Hawks win

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Speaker 1: the Capella double double from Brandon, Hawks to score first,

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Speaker 1: lost on that because of Brooke Laypez Herder two plus

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Speaker 1: assists again followed Brandon. That was painful, and then a

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Speaker 1: Giannis triple double which was one off on the Like

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Speaker 1: this is the thing, is the problem with the with

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Speaker 1: the parlays is you will look at it and you'll

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Speaker 1: like I would look at that and go like, I

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Speaker 1: was so close. Yeah it was fifteen to one, and

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Speaker 1: just look how close I would. But that that that's

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Speaker 1: the point, that's that's why, that's why Raheem Palmer plays

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Speaker 1: totals and sides and live bets and puts big bets

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Speaker 1: on very tight bets.

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Speaker 2: Am I right? Right?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: I actually actually started out my betting career with parlayds

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Speaker 5: because in two thousand and nine, Delaware Park was the

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Speaker 5: first US operator that allowed you to bet, So I

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Speaker 5: was betting like football parlays, and I did this for

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Speaker 5: so long, and I like, I mean, I was fortunate

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Speaker 5: because I was playing steale numbers, so the parlay cards

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Speaker 5: would lock on Wednesday.

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Speaker 2: You'd have three other days where you have line movements,

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Speaker 2: so it would be.

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Speaker 5: Me and like there would be shark groups coming down

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Speaker 5: there who specifically just would fill out a million cards

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Speaker 5: playing the stale numbers, but otherwise I just I can't

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Speaker 5: do it, just because it's so difficult and you're always

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Speaker 5: gonna have that frustration.

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Speaker 2: I'll show you.

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Speaker 5: I'll show you a parleague that I had where I

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Speaker 5: had a ten team parlay and I had two hundred

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Speaker 5: dollars on it and it was gonna pay me like

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Speaker 5: two hundred thousand one game loss.

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Speaker 4: When you're batting, you gotta have fun. Sometimes you gotta

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Speaker 4: be responsibly have fun. Rahiem has fun by winning a

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Speaker 4: bunch of money and then going courtside to back to

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Speaker 4: back Game seven.

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Speaker 3: I have fun by.

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Speaker 4: Putting a little bit of money on a crazy two

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Speaker 4: hundred fifty to one parlay to each of their own.

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Speaker 1: So let's start with that game. Though I had Hawks

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Speaker 1: plus seven and a half, I got an eight and

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Speaker 1: a half yesterday when the line eaked up for a

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Speaker 1: brief period of time, I did dabble on the money line.

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Speaker 1: I took Hawks on heat Check, which you can check

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Speaker 1: out Tuesdays and Thursdays on Action Network, including the day

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Speaker 1: that you're gonna this podcast comes out, you'd be able

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Speaker 1: to catch it at seven pm Eastern before Game three

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Speaker 1: of the Western Conference Finals, going over bets for both

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Speaker 1: today and tomorrow, and make sure to check that out

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Speaker 1: at Action Network, HQ on Twitter. So I was pretty

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Speaker 1: confident in the like I went back and forth. There

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Speaker 1: was a promo yesterday had a book that Brandon put

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Speaker 1: out that they had actually lowered the ohs of plus

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Speaker 1: one hundred on the on the Bucks money line, and

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Speaker 1: I looked very seriously at it. It's like it's capped

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Speaker 1: for a very small amount. But I was still like,

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Speaker 1: all right, maybe that's like just free money, because like

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Speaker 1: I do you know, I was like, well, I like

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Speaker 1: the Hawks. The numbers too big, you know. I took

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Speaker 1: him on the money line because I do believe that

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Speaker 1: if you're gonna take I think this is especially true

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs, some one bounces off both of you.

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Speaker 1: I think if you're I think more so than in

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Speaker 1: the regular season, if you're gonna take the spread, you

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Speaker 1: might as well take the money line. I don't think

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Speaker 1: now in the NFL, like Simon Hunter that does the

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Speaker 1: favorites with Chad and is a really sharp professional better

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Speaker 1: he always says on NFL, if you look if you're

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Speaker 1: gonna take the points, but you can put a little

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Speaker 1: bit on the money line. I think it's different in

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Speaker 1: NBA regular season. I think there's more value in probably

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Speaker 1: playing just the points in the NBA regular season, But

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs, I do believe that if you think

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Speaker 1: that you're getting that this number is too wide. That

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Speaker 1: means that you do think they're going to outperform expectations,

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Speaker 1: and once you're into that range, I do think that

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Speaker 1: there's there's more value on betting the money line on

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Speaker 1: the dog than there is in the regular season. What

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Speaker 1: do you think about that, Ringing?

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Speaker 2: I agree with you one hundred percent.

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Speaker 5: I think there's only been one scenario in which probably

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Speaker 5: two that I can think of over the top of

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Speaker 5: my head, over like the last month, where a team

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Speaker 5: is covered and not one, and that was the Brooklyn

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Speaker 5: Nets Game three against the Bucks, when you know, the

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Speaker 5: Nets were up three and they just kind of I mean,

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Speaker 5: the Bucks scored every basket from then on out.

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Speaker 2: And then last night's Clippers Sons game, and the Sons.

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Speaker 5: Were up six points with two minutes to go before

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Speaker 5: Paul George hit a three and then Paul George scored

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Speaker 5: every time in order to give them the league.

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Speaker 2: So I agree with you.

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Speaker 5: Actually, I've been playing a lot of underdog money lines

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Speaker 5: this postseason, so I think you if you're going to

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Speaker 5: play an underdog, play a money line as well, just because.

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Speaker 2: More often than not, the team who covers the spread

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Speaker 2: is gonna win.

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Speaker 4: Well and I think too, that that makes a lot

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Speaker 4: of sense, because like, look, look who are the underdogs

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Speaker 4: that we've been playing, and look who they're playing against,

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Speaker 4: And like, if you think that Milwaukee is going to

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Speaker 4: be in a close game, so if Atlanta's gonna cover,

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Speaker 4: then the game's gonna be close. It has to be

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Speaker 4: within five, six seven points maybe last late Well, now

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Speaker 4: you're inviting into the question all the late game Milwaukee

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Speaker 4: problems that we've been watching all postseason for years now.

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Speaker 4: Same thing with like Philadelphia last series, when when you

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Speaker 4: when you're betting on the underdog, if they're going to cover,

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Speaker 4: then you have a close game. And now you've got

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Speaker 4: the Ben Simmons free throw question, you had the Giannis

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Speaker 4: free throw question, like that immediately came up last night.

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Speaker 4: And so if part of your instinct is I think

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Speaker 4: think the America can keep it close here, then that's

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Speaker 4: probably telling that there's something about the favorite that you

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Speaker 4: don't quite trust late and so if that's the case,

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Speaker 4: then you need to give them a chance to win

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Speaker 4: and really pay off your bet too.

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Speaker 5: So I think it's the nature of my fault that

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Speaker 5: cuts you out. But I think it's the nature of

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Speaker 5: how NBA is played today. Like when you look at

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Speaker 5: that Bucks game last night, Like, what did the Bucks

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Speaker 5: struggle with? They struggled to shoot three pointers. I mean

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Speaker 5: they were like eight of thirty away after from three

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Speaker 5: point range. And if you're eight of thirty from three

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Speaker 5: point range, you're probably gonna lose that game.

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Speaker 1: So here's like a good example of it. And I

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Speaker 1: have to do this for more than a years. Just

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Speaker 1: this season though regular season is minus four point eight

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Speaker 1: percent ROI. This would be a bet Labs on Bet

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Speaker 1: and Dogs. There was a time early in the season

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Speaker 1: when the Dogs were hitting wild and that's obviously, like

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Speaker 1: we have to talk a lot more about this next

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Speaker 1: year when we go into the pod about how you

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Speaker 1: get to focus your betting on that first half of

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Speaker 1: the season before the lines adjust. Like I thought about

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Speaker 1: this with Justin Van and Preston Johnson both on bet streams,

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Speaker 1: and a bunch of other stuff about how after all

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Speaker 1: Star break everything is so sharpened and the team's motivations

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Speaker 1: and exhaustion and injuries get wild. So I'd be interesting

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Speaker 1: to see what those numbers like are like for the

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Speaker 1: Dogs in the first half of the season. But uh,

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Speaker 1: the playoffs are actually worse considerably worse for betting the dogs.

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Speaker 1: But that's only if you factor the first round when

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Speaker 1: the disparities between the two teams are so much greater.

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Speaker 1: Second round and this is a limited number of games,

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Speaker 1: is a small sample size here, But in the second

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Speaker 1: round and on you've actually got a one point one

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Speaker 1: percent return on investment. And that's only that's on all bets.

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Speaker 1: So if we target only the spots that you like,

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Speaker 1: your return is probably going to be better there. But

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Speaker 1: as far as this goes, game goes, let's talk about Hawks.

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Speaker 1: Seth part now talked about this.

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Speaker 2: I think that the.

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Speaker 1: Discussion on the series is fascinating for the reasons that

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Speaker 1: we touched on the other day. There's a couple of

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Speaker 1: things to kind of keep in mind here. Here's what

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Speaker 1: here's my take on what happen. I want to get

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Speaker 1: you all thoughts on this. The first half, the Bucks

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Speaker 1: are like, we're gonna do what we do. We're starting

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Speaker 1: Brook Lopez, We're starting big. We're gonna drop versus Trey.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna give up the floater, we're gonna stay home

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Speaker 1: on the shooters, and we're gonna stop the lob. We're

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Speaker 1: not gonna let a Pella kill us. If Trey wants

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Speaker 1: to go off for forty by shooting floaters, no problem.

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Speaker 1: And Trey killed them with the floater. And this is like,

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Speaker 1: this is a fascinating part of It's not even players

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Speaker 1: in this instance, it's players and coaches. It's the entire

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Speaker 1: at on court organizational unit. It is very difficult to

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Speaker 1: tell players. I know he's killing you. You need to

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Speaker 1: stick with it. I understand how this feels. You cannot adjust.

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Speaker 1: We gotta stick with the game plan because the Bucks

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Speaker 1: outscored the Hawks by five in the first half, and

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Speaker 1: the Bucks at the Hawks offensive rating was lower the

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Speaker 1: first half when they were doing that, then the second

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Speaker 1: half when they started adjusting. I started looking at the numbers.

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Speaker 1: They were definably better when they were playing Drop. The

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Speaker 1: key is, honestly, they need to go this is this

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Speaker 1: is what the data tells us. Okay, this is what

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Speaker 1: the the hard numbers tell us about that game. The

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Speaker 1: Bucks best approach was having Tucker play the five. Have

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Speaker 1: Tucker drop, not prep playing Brook. Because of the floater,

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Speaker 1: Tucker can get up higher and then received a little

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Speaker 1: bit further. Have him play that way. It feels like,

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Speaker 1: because you like I watched that game too and was like, oh,

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Speaker 1: like Yanni is switching on him. That worked because you

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Speaker 1: saw all those contested threes that Trey took. Trey got

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Speaker 1: the assist going in the second half. Though, this is

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Speaker 1: the problem with switch, particularly with Capella, and this goes

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Speaker 1: back to Houston. If you switch pick and roll, the

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Speaker 1: best way to counter that one hundred percent is you

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Speaker 1: slip the pick with the big and that guy gets

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Speaker 1: a free ring to the rim. And as long as

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Speaker 1: you have a passer that can get the ball there,

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Speaker 1: that guy's going to score at a high level. Otherwise

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Speaker 1: they're going to have to bring help, and then your

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Speaker 1: corner shooters are open. And that's what happened in this game,

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Speaker 1: that the Bucks couldn't maintain discipline on letting him take

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Speaker 1: those floaters because of how good he was. Seth partner

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Speaker 1: from The Athletic noted this Trey was one of seven

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Speaker 1: on floaters in the second half. If they kept with

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Speaker 1: game plan discipline and by the way, if Chris Middleton

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Speaker 1: could hit water, if he fell out of a fucking boat,

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Speaker 1: the Bucks win that game that game plan. But here's

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Speaker 1: the thing, if you're a better I do not have

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Speaker 1: an answer for you on whether or not Mike Butenholzer

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Speaker 1: in staff or the Bucks as a team are going

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Speaker 1: to be able to maintain game plan discipline going forward. Brandon,

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Speaker 1: let's start with you and your reaction with that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm on board with basically all of that. I

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Speaker 4: had a friend, a Bucks fan friend who was texting

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Speaker 4: me during the game last night who was like, bought

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Speaker 4: cheeks clenched from the tip off of like, like texting

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Speaker 4: me for the game, are the Hawks within five points?

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Speaker 3: Are they?

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Speaker 4: Are they like less than a five point underdog? That's

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Speaker 4: free money the Bucks. The Bucks can't stay ahead about

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Speaker 4: anyone like you should be betting that.

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Speaker 3: You gotta betting the.

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Speaker 4: Hawks, which I clearly should have listened to him, and

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Speaker 4: he as the game is going on, he's saying, oh, man,

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Speaker 4: like here here we go, here we go. We we

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Speaker 4: have to have the Bucks have to pull through. They

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Speaker 4: need to win this for Bud. They have to win

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Speaker 4: this for Bud. And I said, no, you need the

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Speaker 4: Bucks to lose this for Bud. Like in some ways

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Speaker 4: that they actually lost the game and blew it at

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Speaker 4: the end has to be like like, look what happened

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Speaker 4: after that timeout when when trade dropped the three and

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Speaker 4: stared into the abyss for like twenty seconds and shimmied

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Speaker 4: on them. It it like lit up the Bucks, like

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Speaker 4: Giannis is over there, like yelling at his teammates and

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Speaker 4: getting to try to pay attention. You lose to the

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Speaker 4: Hawks at at home in game one, you got to

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Speaker 4: pay attention. You got to take some of those lessons away.

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Speaker 4: And it's like in some ways Trey was so good

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Speaker 4: that he was almost too good to a detriment. Maybe

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Speaker 4: that it already forced the Bucks to adjust. Bud adjusted

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Speaker 4: at halftime of Game one in a playoff series. That's

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Speaker 4: how good Trey Young was. Bud had to make adjustments

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Speaker 4: like twenty four minutes into a series.

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Speaker 3: So we don't know.

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Speaker 4: Still if those adjustment, like if before Game two tomorrow,

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Speaker 4: if the Bucks announced brook Lopez is not in the

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Speaker 4: starting lineup, well, now you know as a better if

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Speaker 4: they're if they're taking brook Lopez out of the starting

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Speaker 4: lineup from the jump, then you know that this adjustment

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Speaker 4: is coming seriously. And that that to me, Matt, that

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Speaker 4: was my notes too, is that's I don't know whether

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Speaker 4: it's as a starter or not. You know, the closing

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Speaker 4: line matters a lot more. But here here are some

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Speaker 4: of the cascade effects of if you take Brook Lopez

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Speaker 4: more out of the equation and go with PG Tucker

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Speaker 4: and Jannis as the Biggs, do the switching, do the

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Speaker 4: Tucker drop. So Lopez, by the way, played only twenty

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Speaker 4: minutes in game one and he was minus fourteen singing

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Speaker 4: game plus minus doesn't tell us a lot, but that

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Speaker 4: one felt pretty accurate.

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Speaker 3: So here's the thing.

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Speaker 4: Though, Lopez doesn't have to just get totally benched. I

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Speaker 4: want Lopez on my bench unit because I actually felt

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Speaker 4: like Bobby Portis was actually helpful offensively. He was clearly

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Speaker 4: big time trouble defensively. But if you have Brook Lopez

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Speaker 4: paired with Bobby Portis as a bench unit, then you

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Speaker 4: might still get some production out of Portis. Portis had

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Speaker 4: I think eleven and eight in limited time. He was

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Speaker 4: crashing the offensive glass keeping them going. Lopez gives them

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Speaker 4: some protection, gets him that like even up the bench

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Speaker 4: units a little bit. Also, I want Brittan Forbes in

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Speaker 4: my starting lineup or my closing lineup with PJ. Tucker

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Speaker 4: because I like his shooting out there, like I like

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Speaker 4: the way that his spacing opens the floor for them

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Speaker 4: on offense. And if Forbes is defending against like Bogdanovich

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Speaker 4: or Hurder, those aren't Like Bogdanovic is clearly hurt and

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Speaker 4: is not a guy that can really hurt you right now.

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Speaker 4: Hurder is not a guy like it. If Atlanta says,

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Speaker 4: all right, we're gonna get it to hurt her and

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Speaker 4: just let you attack.

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Speaker 2: Did you just watch what he did to Steph Curry

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Speaker 2: in Game seven.

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Speaker 3: I'm not to see it.

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Speaker 4: I'm not if if your plan is you're gonna beat

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Speaker 4: me and go to the finals because Kevin Herder is

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Speaker 4: gonna take you there, I'm gonna have to see it

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Speaker 4: happen compared to my other options, compared to what I

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Speaker 4: just saw Troy Young doing Game one, compared to Collins

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Speaker 4: and Capella what they did. If my options are you

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Speaker 4: want to have Kevin Herder play one on one and

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Speaker 4: we've got Giannis and everyone else doing all of our

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Speaker 4: stuff on the other end, you're gonna have to prove

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Speaker 4: that to me. And Yeah, I just I like Brent

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Speaker 4: Forbes opening the lineup. I feel like it bounces their

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Speaker 4: lineup a little better and puts more defense into the

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Speaker 4: bank with Comton more shooting on the offense.

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Speaker 3: I just feel like that that opens a lot of.

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Speaker 4: Solutions, getting getting Lopez to the bench unit, and evening

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Speaker 4: out the lineups a little bit more.

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Speaker 1: So. Look, I still think the Bucks are live, and

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about that in a second. I still think

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Speaker 1: the Bucks are live in the series for a number

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Speaker 1: of reasons, the biggest being that they lost a very

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Speaker 1: close game in with Chris Middleton. What is it The

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Speaker 1: kids say, oh, yeah, he was cheeks last. Yeah, so

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Speaker 1: they're still very much live in this series. But I

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Speaker 1: want to point this out, he said, like, I want

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Speaker 1: you know, if they're gonna make Kevin Herder beat me

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Speaker 1: one on one, that's not what they'll do, Brandon, They'll move.

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Speaker 1: What they'll do is they'll run hurt her off of screens.

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Speaker 1: And if Herder is running off of screens with Brent

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Speaker 1: Forbes chasing, if I told you, Okay, what do you

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Speaker 1: think about Kevin Herder catching and shooting clean off of screens,

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Speaker 1: now all of a sudden you're like, Okay, yeah, now

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Speaker 1: I'm a little concerned, right, like with Forbes chasing. So

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Speaker 1: now the Bucks can switch those, right, That's why you switch, right,

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Speaker 1: that you can switch those. The problem I think they're though,

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Speaker 1: is if you put Forbes on herder and you switch

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Speaker 1: off ball, what you're gonna wind up with is You're

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Speaker 1: then gonna wind up with with Forbes guarding John Collins.

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Speaker 1: And Collins I do think has the moves to be

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Speaker 1: able to get like he he hasn'teno offensive game to

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Speaker 1: be able to get like I really need to note this.

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Speaker 1: John Collins has been amazing in these playoffs. Like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: everyone like Trey is gonna get the most credit, which

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Speaker 1: he should.

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Speaker 2: He had.

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Speaker 1: He tied to LBJ amongst like six players for scoring

409
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Speaker 1: forty eight or more in a conference finals game. Holy shit.

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Speaker 1: Uh he passed off the backboard to John Collins in

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Speaker 1: a conference finals game and one of the most Like

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Speaker 1: we had back to back oops that were absolutely incredible.

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Speaker 1: It was just amazing. But Collins has like the rebounding

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Speaker 1: late in that game when the Bucks had to go

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Speaker 1: small and switch the like, this is what's the note

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Speaker 1: I will sayd this. I was annoyed by the commentary

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Speaker 1: last night because it was funny. If you watched the timeline,

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Speaker 1: half the people are saying, look, you gotta just you've

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Speaker 1: got to stay home in your base coverage. You can't

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Speaker 1: let the Hawks do everything involved. And then you got

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Speaker 1: other people being like, are you gonna do anything or

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Speaker 1: are you gonna let Trey Young hit fifty floaters on you?

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Speaker 1: And the answer is like, you're probably gonna want try

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Speaker 1: Young to hit fifty floaters on you because it's better

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Speaker 1: than a dunk, and it's better than a corner three pointer,

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Speaker 1: Like the inherent value on a on a on a

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Speaker 1: floater is much better. But then the other half was like,

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Speaker 1: you gotta switch everything. You gotta put Janis on him.

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Speaker 1: Why are they not playing Yannis at five? You gotta

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Speaker 1: switch everything. Everyone acts like this stuff is so simple.

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Speaker 1: The Hawks put pressure on you in a bunch of

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Speaker 1: different ways because Trey Young is fantastic. But if you

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Speaker 1: switch everything and you go small, guess what happened late

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Speaker 1: in that game. The offensive rebounding advantage dissipated because Jannis

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00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,399
Speaker 1: was out in the perimeter. And if your guy, if

436
00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:41,720
Speaker 1: you're if you do not have Brook Lopez in and

437
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:44,440
Speaker 1: you're out on the perimeter, your rebound rate goes down.

438
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:48,760
Speaker 1: Like there's there's all these complicated mechanics of countermatchups. And

439
00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 1: I'll just say this, like if you say like, well,

440
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 1: what can the Bucks do to put pressure on the Hawks.

441
00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:56,600
Speaker 1: The answer is, honestly what they did in Game one.

442
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 1: They got great looks in that game. They got awesome

443
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 1: looks in that game. They got dunks for you, like

444
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,680
Speaker 1: Jihannas had a massive game. Drew Holiday was fantastic. Mids

445
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:09,480
Speaker 1: looks were good, like the corner threes were open. The

446
00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,240
Speaker 1: Hawks defense was not prepared for what the Bucks brought

447
00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:15,600
Speaker 1: to them. The Bucks miss shots. The problem was, and

448
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 1: we talked about this the other day. I said, every

449
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 1: single time that we're in a playoff series with the Bucks,

450
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,879
Speaker 1: they never shoot as well as they should. I'm not

451
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 1: saying the Hawks are gonna win this series yet, I

452
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:29,400
Speaker 1: think they're live. Obviously after winning Game one, like teams

453
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 1: in this spot I think are twenty one and eleven.

454
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 1: We've looked at the other day in this spot, when

455
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 1: they win game one on the road in the conference finals,

456
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 1: they're live. I just think that the idea that there

457
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:46,920
Speaker 1: are all these easy components to try and solve, like, oh,

458
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 1: it's so obvious the Bucks need to do this, there's

459
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,159
Speaker 1: not There are counters to everything the Bucks can do

460
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 1: because the Hawks have really well balanced personnel that are

461
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 1: all playing well, like the answer for everything the Hawks

462
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 1: are doing. If you're asking, well, how do they beat it?

463
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 1: You outscore them. That's how you beat it. Because the

464
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:09,879
Speaker 1: personnel that you need in order to beat the Hawks,

465
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 1: I'm not sure it's not that they're unstoppable. It is

466
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 1: that with the way that they're playing right now, where

467
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:19,440
Speaker 1: you have the shooting component, and you do have Gapella

468
00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 1: that can finish at the rim, and you do have

469
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 1: Tray that's so good at the floater, and you do

470
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 1: have the ability to slip and switch, and you do

471
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 1: have the ability to hit the floater versus like, there

472
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,160
Speaker 1: is not a coverage that I can tell you after

473
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:35,320
Speaker 1: all my years in the NBA where it's like, well,

474
00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 1: if they do this, then the Hawks don't really have

475
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 1: an answer. There's not one. There's just not one. Rahim,

476
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,680
Speaker 1: I want to ask you this. So Brandon and I

477
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 1: both get get caught up on these kind of things

478
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,560
Speaker 1: on the basketball side, which is and this is something

479
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 1: we've talked about on heat check. There's a difference between

480
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 1: as betters. You can get caught into well, the Bucks

481
00:22:56,000 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 1: should do X, and so they'll do and then they'll win.

482
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 1: I think we have to focus a lot more on

483
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,880
Speaker 1: what are the Bucks going to do? What are these

484
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 1: teams going to do? And so from that perspective, what

485
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,639
Speaker 1: do you think is the best value going forward in

486
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:16,159
Speaker 1: this series?

487
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 2: I agree with you.

488
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:20,120
Speaker 5: I think that's something I've like, I've spoken about for years.

489
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 5: It's kind of like the assumption of like rational decision making.

490
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 5: It's like, how many times do you feel like you know,

491
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 5: this guy should play in this this spot, or they

492
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,440
Speaker 5: should make this adjustment, and they're not just gonna do

493
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 5: it for me? I just I've really struggled to see

494
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 5: how the Hawks are going to win this series with

495
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 5: the banged up Bogdanovich and.

496
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 2: No DeAndre Hunter. I just think the I think the

497
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:52,640
Speaker 2: Bucks offense lost that lost that game yesterday. How many

498
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 2: times is Chris Middleton gonna go oh for nine from three,

499
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:56,639
Speaker 2: like I just.

500
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:58,880
Speaker 3: As many times as he feels like aparent?

501
00:23:58,960 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 2: I just don't play that.

502
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:08,359
Speaker 5: Just And then also, I mean, you're basically dependent on

503
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 5: Trey Young to score forty eight points every game, and

504
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 5: I just to me, if that's what's gonna happen, and

505
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 5: I'm willing to bet against that. Like I know, some

506
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 5: sharp betters were all over the Hawks, but I'm really

507
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 5: struggling to see and like, honestly like the Bucks down

508
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 5: the stretch. Defensively, they did a good job of pushing

509
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 5: Trey Young out on the perimeter and making him take.

510
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 2: Like Trey Young took some really tough shots in the

511
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 2: fourth quarter.

512
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, but like you, like you said, with them switching everything,

513
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:37,720
Speaker 5: they gave up a lot of offensive rebounds.

514
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 1: Yep. I mean, look, the two of the biggest players

515
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 1: down the stretch were an offensive rebound by Collins alled

516
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,919
Speaker 1: to a Collins three pointer, and then Clintapella's put back

517
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 1: was the game winner, essentially, like yeah, before free throws.

518
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 1: So this is the so here that is kind of

519
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,679
Speaker 1: the question. Brandon is like, if they don't play Brooke.

520
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, so so that you know, I like to think

521
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 3: about it.

522
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 4: So if you make the adjustment that we're suggesting, then

523
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 4: what's the adjustment to the adjustment. And if you're Atlanta

524
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 4: and Milwaukee's gonna not play Brook, Atlanta already thrives on

525
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 4: offensive rebounding, they're just gonna crash even harder. Capella and

526
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 4: Collins had nine offensive rebounds in that game. Capella and

527
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:25,360
Speaker 4: Collins had thirty five points and thirty four rebounds between them,

528
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:28,439
Speaker 4: and they scored that on seventeen of twenty three shooting.

529
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 4: It was basically just like free rebounds and points anytime

530
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,440
Speaker 4: that they were getting touches because of the way that

531
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 4: Trey was opening things up. So, okay, that's the counter adjustment,

532
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 4: is all right, Well, now the Hawks are crashing the glass. Okay,

533
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 4: Well here's the counter counter adjustment. The Bucks are best

534
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 4: when they run and their best in transition. And if

535
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:52,399
Speaker 4: you're crashing the offensive glass, and you've got Collins and

536
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 4: Capella really crashing the glass, and it's because Giannis is

537
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 4: away from the hoop. Now I need to respond by Okay,

538
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 4: we're gonna give up some of those easy offensive rebound

539
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 4: put back points. That's that's part of what happened here.

540
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:09,200
Speaker 4: If you're playing the Hawks, they're gonna get some of those.

541
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 4: But when you get the rebound, you run, and now

542
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:15,159
Speaker 4: Collins and or Capella are behind the play, and now

543
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 4: you've got Trey Young and Herder Bogdanovic are your only

544
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 4: transition defense, and the Bucks they're going back the other

545
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:23,880
Speaker 4: way getting some of those easier points that you're giving

546
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 4: up these points on offensive glass. So I think like

547
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 4: there are adjustments to the adjustments. I think too, This

548
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 4: is a series. This spot is a series where the

549
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 4: Bucks finally really missed Dante DiVincenzo. Like we're talking before

550
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 4: about well, if you're taking Brook off the floor, who's

551
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 4: the other guy, And the answer shouldn't be Bryn Forbes,

552
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 4: And the answer shouldn't be Pat Conaton, it should be

553
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 4: Devincenzo because he's kind of like your moderate option in

554
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 4: between those guys where he can actually hit some of

555
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 4: those shots. Like think about Pat Conaton had that late

556
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 4: open three pointer, and man, I heard it sucked.

557
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 3: It sucked, but like you don't. If you're Atlanta, you're

558
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 3: okay with that.

559
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 4: If that's the shot Milwaukee's gonna beat you with, and

560
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 4: it's Pat Conaton, You're like, all right, then beat us

561
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 4: with that.

562
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 1: But then Durst Milton also had to like two game

563
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 1: tying or game winning attempts from three just badly miss both.

564
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:21,200
Speaker 4: And well, yeah, I mean the thing too, is we

565
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:23,399
Speaker 4: we We've said this a lot on the podcast. We

566
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 4: can get so caught up in everything being binary. The

567
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 4: Hawks won, the Bucks lost, Oh my god, the sky

568
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:33,159
Speaker 4: is falling, Like the Bucks almost won the game despite

569
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,639
Speaker 4: all the bad things that we're saying that the Bucks

570
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 4: were winning by four with like a minute or two left.

571
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 4: The Hawks had that one possession where they they looked

572
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 4: like they were just getting the panic mode. They were

573
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 4: like trying too hard to get threes up, and they

574
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,400
Speaker 4: fired up a three, got the rebound, fired up another three,

575
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 4: got the rebound again, finally fired up the third three

576
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 4: with Collins in the corner and hit it, and that

577
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 4: was the thing that flipped the switch. And then the

578
00:27:56,760 --> 00:28:00,159
Speaker 4: Bucks switched to panic mode. But even then Middleton HiT's

579
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 4: that three at the end of the game, we go

580
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 4: to overtime. I think we probably all still feel pretty

581
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,200
Speaker 4: good about the Bucks and overtime, and now you're suddenly

582
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:09,879
Speaker 4: coming away with like, oh man, the Bucks are a

583
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,360
Speaker 4: title team. They didn't have anything to go their way.

584
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:15,199
Speaker 4: They didn't hit their shots that all, Trey Young had

585
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 4: the game of his life and the Bucks won. Anyway, like,

586
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 4: we're that close, We're one shot away from that being

587
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 4: the story today. So I don't think it's panic city.

588
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 4: You still have to take things away as Milwaukee. But

589
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 4: we can't just say like, oh, Atlanta, they got this.

590
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 4: Now they hit a shot.

591
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:34,400
Speaker 1: Let me let me reframe the narrative because then, look,

592
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 1: we've I'll say this bet, the narrative has never taken

593
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 1: so many l's in a postseason. I mean, if they

594
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 1: get some l's this postseason.

595
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, it really is, which is great.

596
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 1: I'm excited for that. I would rather be about matchups

597
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 1: and x's and o's. But even then, like even then,

598
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 1: above that, the bet, the greater narrative for the twenty

599
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 1: twenty one season really is wait for the injuries. Like

600
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 1: that's that's really been it. But here's like the narrative

601
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 1: on the Bucks. Okay, Brandon. The Heat were one of

602
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 1: four teams to make the Final Four last year. Three

603
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 1: of those teams went out in the first round. The

604
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 1: fourth team got swept in the second. Okay, so they

605
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 1: faced the Heat, they go out. Okay, we talked about

606
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 1: how the Heat, like Raheem was all over the heater

607
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 1: frauds all year. Second round, no Kyrie, no Harden for

608
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 1: most of the series. Harden comes back, he's a shell

609
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 1: of himself. Okay, the Hawks were without DeAndre Hunter, but

610
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 1: that's it, like everything else. Logdanova just banged up, but

611
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,960
Speaker 1: he's still playing right like hit A three still playing. Yeah, Okay,

612
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 1: and we do have like this is the big thing

613
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 1: is if they had just hit their shots. But this

614
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 1: is the problem is and like somebody noted this, like

615
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 1: their shot making in the first two rounds wasn't good.

616
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 1: Like their shot made I was arguing. I was talk

617
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 1: about the Bucks fan last night that I know, and

618
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 1: he was talking about how like, if we're gonna win

619
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 1: the series, is gonna be our defense. I was like,

620
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 1: it's not. It's not like you have to you are

621
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 1: going to have to outscore the Hawks because their offense

622
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:15,560
Speaker 1: has so many weapons specifically positioned to make you pay

623
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:19,040
Speaker 1: in a playoff setting. I wish I had talked more

624
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 1: about the Hawks in that article I wrote about playoff

625
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 1: teams versus regular season teams, Like I'm kicking myself that

626
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 1: I didn't really note that. You also about transition stuff.

627
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, like, there's two reasons that's really tough.

628
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:36,479
Speaker 1: One coaches. If you just say, hey, we're gonna give

629
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 1: up some offensive rebounds, every single coach is going to

630
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 1: hiss like a cat, like they will like there's and

631
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 1: that's not a bud thing. That's every coach. Every coach

632
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 1: is except for like Mike D'Antoni and like Donnie like

633
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 1: don Nelson right enjoying his time in Hawaii, like every

634
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 1: other coach is gonna be like they can't hit, like

635
00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 1: can't can't just be like, oh yeah, we're gonna give

636
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 1: up some offensive rebounds. They hate that, giving up second

637
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 1: chance points. Second they had. They got some really good

638
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 1: transition opportunities with portis by the way, on court in

639
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 1: that first half, second half, that slows down because guys

640
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 1: get tired because it's really exhausting. And the other thing

641
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 1: is if you're playing switch, it gets even more exhausting.

642
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 1: Switch is exhausting. It's tiring. It's tiring for the offense

643
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 1: trying to get around guys, and it's tiring for the defense.

644
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 1: So I'm not sure that transition is the way to go.

645
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 1: All right, let's look at the odds here before we

646
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:36,239
Speaker 1: move on. We've got the Hawks moved to plus one

647
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 1: sixty five to win the series. The spread is now

648
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 1: Bucks minus two and a half is four to twenty five.

649
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 1: Bucks minus one and a half is minus is plus

650
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 1: one thirty five Hawks plus one and a half, So

651
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 1: to win or force it to seven is now minus

652
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:56,479
Speaker 1: one sixty Do we have any thoughts on the value

653
00:31:56,840 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 1: on this, and here's the other one. Uh, five and

654
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 1: a half is now minus two to seventy five. Under

655
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 1: five and a half games is plus two thirty Brandon,

656
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 1: do you do you think this is a time you've

657
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 1: got the Bucks now down to on the series price

658
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 1: at minus two hundred? Is it now? Or do you

659
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 1: want to wait for the Hawks to take another game

660
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 1: before you bet the Bucks?

661
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 3: Yeah?

662
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 4: I was looking at those just before we hopped on here,

663
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 4: and I think I'm gonna at least think pretty hard

664
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 4: about taking that Bucks minus one point five at plus

665
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 4: one thirty five. That's the one that's got my attention here.

666
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 4: My big takeaway right now is I'm definitely not in

667
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:42,479
Speaker 4: panic mode for the Bucks, but you have my attention.

668
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 4: I can't say I don't know how many times on

669
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 4: our podcast over the last few weeks we've got into

670
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 4: whatever the Hawks series was and done it in like

671
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 4: four minutes, when we've gone like twenty minutes, and all

672
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 4: the other ones like, oh the Hawks, they're they're hanging around. Yeah,

673
00:32:57,320 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 4: but Philly is better, so they're gonna like we all

674
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 4: have just collectively continue to shrug off Atlanta over and

675
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:06,760
Speaker 4: over again. I think finally we can't anymore. They I

676
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 4: think they they're only the third team in NBA history

677
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 4: to win three game ones of a playoff series. They

678
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 4: just keep showing up, and so they're they're here for this,

679
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 4: They're here for the fight. I think I still feel

680
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 4: pretty good about about the Bucks.

681
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:23,719
Speaker 3: Winning the series.

682
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 4: I don't know that they're gonna have to go to seven,

683
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 4: and so Bucks minus one point five at plus odds

684
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 4: like that's a chance to get the Bucks to like

685
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 4: I think there's a scenario where the Bucks make enough

686
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 4: adjustments and are enough the better team still that they

687
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 4: could just win the rest of the series. I think

688
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 4: that that wouldn't shock me. That would be in play.

689
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 4: To me, the Bucks winning in six is winning four

690
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 4: to the next five. I still think the Bucks are

691
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 4: the better enough team. My feel coming away from last

692
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 4: night is I'm not ready to just give up on

693
00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 4: the Bucks yet. However, I no longer necessarily feel like

694
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 4: the Bucks are a clear title.

695
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 3: Favorite to me from what we saw last night.

696
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 4: I don't know if that means that the Hawks are

697
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 4: going to beat the Bucks, but BOYD doesn't make me

698
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,239
Speaker 4: not feel great about the Sons playing the Bucks into

699
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,279
Speaker 4: the finals. And so the other one that I'm looking

700
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 4: at is so after last night at bet mgm our

701
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 4: official odds sponsor Bocks, Sun's Finals is now minus one

702
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 4: fifty five, and I think we all feel like the

703
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 4: Suns are going to close that series out. You never know,

704
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 4: it's only two zero and the Clippers YadA YadA, We'll

705
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:37,120
Speaker 4: get back to them a second. But minus one fifty

706
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:42,520
Speaker 4: five is giving you not long juice on what is

707
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 4: a likely Sun's close out and then the Bucks winning it.

708
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:47,440
Speaker 4: The other thing, too, is if you feel like you

709
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 4: have a read on how that series plays out, either

710
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:53,280
Speaker 4: one over the other. So Bucks over Sons or Suns

711
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 4: over Bucks are now exactly the same. They're at plus

712
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:59,399
Speaker 4: one seventy five. So if you're looking at last night

713
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:02,440
Speaker 4: and you're like, look, okay, I think that the Bucks

714
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 4: can still win this series. But if if Trey Young

715
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 4: is slicing and dicing, and if if Herder and Buckdanovich

716
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 4: and Collins are hitting these open jumpers, what's gonna happen

717
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 4: when it's Chris Paul and when it's Devin Booker doing

718
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 4: the slicing and dicing all game? And what's gonna happen

719
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 4: when it's Mkale and Jay Crowder and all these other

720
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 4: guys hitting the shots, was gonna happen when it's down

721
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 4: Ray eighton in the inside. If that's the takeaway and

722
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 4: suddenly you're thinking about Suns over Bucks at plus one

723
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 4: seventy five, I think that could be an interesting play

724
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:32,839
Speaker 4: as well.

725
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 1: Rahim, What do you like for the series?

726
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 5: I think this series. I think this series is the

727
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:43,880
Speaker 5: two thousand and one Finals. Like Trey Young had his

728
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:47,759
Speaker 5: Alan iverson game, and I think it was a cute

729
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 5: story and everything like that. But I think the Bucks

730
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 5: are gonna win this series. I just think that all

731
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 5: I can't like when we look at the Bucks, their

732
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 5: worst game throughout the entire postseason was in game once,

733
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:00,879
Speaker 5: like they had a ninety seven. He had a ninety

734
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,360
Speaker 5: eight offense ratting in Game one against the Heat before

735
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:08,920
Speaker 5: you know, finally clicking offensively they like, I mean, Games

736
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 5: one and two against the Nets were just horrible offensively

737
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 5: and then they finally found something. So I'm expecting more

738
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:19,399
Speaker 5: the same, and I just think I think they're gonna

739
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 5: figure out something with the pick and roll coverages with

740
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 5: Trey Young. I don't think Trey Young is gonna play

741
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:27,360
Speaker 5: as well as he did. I mean honestly, like they

742
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 5: kind of really got lucky with those offensive rebounds at the.

743
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 2: End of the game.

744
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,439
Speaker 5: So I'm a probably like I'm kind of a safe better,

745
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 5: Like I want to give myself some margin for error.

746
00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 2: So I wouldn't lay, you know, minus one and a.

747
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 5: Half or Bucks four one, just because the Hawks could

748
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:44,799
Speaker 5: easily win one of those games at home.

749
00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 2: But I would take the Bucks minus two hundred. I

750
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 2: think it's a good number.

751
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:51,399
Speaker 5: I mean, they're gonna be seven and a half point

752
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:54,719
Speaker 5: favorites in Game two, and they're probably gonna be short

753
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:58,439
Speaker 5: favorites on the road. So if Trey Young is gonna

754
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 5: drop forty eight points on me every year every night,

755
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:04,560
Speaker 5: then to only win by three or so, I gotta take.

756
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 1: It becauead of going. Now say this, I don't like

757
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:08,319
Speaker 1: one and a half a plus one thirty five at all,

758
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,040
Speaker 1: because I don't like it at all. The reason, Brandon

759
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 1: is you have to say, then the Bucks are gonna

760
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 1: win four of the next five, right, that's new, new, new, new, new, new,

761
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:22,279
Speaker 1: new new new new. The Hawks are gonna get at

762
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 1: least one more now, like I think the Hawks are

763
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 1: alive in the series. I also don't care at this

764
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 1: point because I got Suns Bucks a plus twenty five

765
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 1: hundred earlier in the month. That's on June second, and

766
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:35,560
Speaker 1: so I've hedged with Hawks Clippers and Hawks Suns and

767
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 1: I'm in a good spot. I'm fine. I'm fine. I'm

768
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:41,759
Speaker 1: just gonna be playing a game by game. I think

769
00:37:41,800 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 1: the series is very dangerous just based off of a

770
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 1: lot of this is well, if the Bucks just shoot,

771
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:51,000
Speaker 1: I can't trust them. Let's go to the Western Conference.

772
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:54,440
Speaker 1: Two great games, two phenomenal games. The narrative is absolutely

773
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 1: out of control right now, though, I will tell you

774
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:57,759
Speaker 1: guys this, I'm gonna go ahead and start this. We're

775
00:37:57,760 --> 00:37:59,360
Speaker 1: gonna start this on the other side, and just go

776
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:05,480
Speaker 1: this way. Right off the bat, the Los Angeles Clippers

777
00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 1: a plus five fifty to win the series. The Sons

778
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:09,319
Speaker 1: are minus eight hundred. Chris Paul is going to play

779
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:11,839
Speaker 1: in Game three, it was reported the issued by Chris Haynes.

780
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 1: The Sun's followed up by making him probable for Game three.

781
00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 1: If he's listened as probable, there is zero chance in

782
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:18,840
Speaker 1: my mind that he will actually not play in a

783
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:24,359
Speaker 1: playoff game. You can get right now, theoretically, you can

784
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:27,760
Speaker 1: get Clippers plus two and a half at plus money

785
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:31,359
Speaker 1: at plus one twenty five. Rahee wants to just start

786
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,879
Speaker 1: with you. I've got Clippers tonight on the money line

787
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:38,880
Speaker 1: as dogs at home. Love this bet, like the Clippers here,

788
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 1: love the Clippers here. There's a billion reasons why am

789
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:43,399
Speaker 1: I wrong?

790
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:48,319
Speaker 5: I was thinking Clippers first quarter, in first half, I think,

791
00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 5: you know, playing that spot with the team down oh two,

792
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 5: I think it's a really great spot. I'm a little

793
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:58,360
Speaker 5: concerned for the Clippers if the biggest concern I have

794
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 5: for the Clippers is they're bigs, but their three point

795
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 5: shooting is like totally overcoming that. Like, I mean, they

796
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:07,239
Speaker 5: have thirty three three's in this series compared to the

797
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 5: Suns nineteen, and I just think they're shooting so well

798
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:13,640
Speaker 5: that it's keeping them in games. And then also I

799
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 5: was really impressed with their defense on Devin Booker in

800
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 5: Game two. Like to me, it was the best defense

801
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:23,319
Speaker 5: they played the entire postseason other than you know, when

802
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 5: Donovan Mitchell start to get banged up. But they've really

803
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:29,760
Speaker 5: they've really like I like the way they played defense

804
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 5: in Game two, so I think they kind of found something.

805
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:35,839
Speaker 5: And with them being at home, I do think they

806
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:37,440
Speaker 5: have an extra boost. So I agree with you, but

807
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:40,800
Speaker 5: I'm looking probably first quarter in first half, just because

808
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 5: I think that that desperation effects should have should should

809
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 5: really have an impact. And then also I think Tyron

810
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:51,120
Speaker 5: lou Is really gonna find like he's been slow to

811
00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:55,879
Speaker 5: adjusting this postseason. Like Game one he played Cousins way

812
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 5: too much with the starting lineups of the Suns, he

813
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:01,279
Speaker 5: played Zubac way too much. I think he knows what

814
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 5: he has to do now, like Goman Small. So I

815
00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 5: think one of the things that you have to do

816
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:07,440
Speaker 5: with Tyron lewis you kind of have to play him

817
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:10,840
Speaker 5: later in series just because he's so slow to adjust.

818
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:12,239
Speaker 2: So I agree with you.

819
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:17,520
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850
00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 1: This is a number I want to throw you guys,

851
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:45,480
Speaker 1: because I'm kind of wrestling with this, all right. DeAndre

852
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 1: Aiden has been fantastic. I'm running by him right now

853
00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:50,800
Speaker 1: for action on the floor versus a Eata Zoobach. In

854
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 1: the series, the Clippers have outscored the Suns by three

855
00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:01,359
Speaker 1: point four points per one hundred possessions. Oh wow, Yeah,

856
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 1: they have a The Clippers have a one sixteen offensive

857
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 1: rating with Aiden on the floor versus Zubotch. This is

858
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:12,280
Speaker 1: the kicker, like this is and this is honestly pretty wild.

859
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:15,800
Speaker 1: So the Clippers have that one sixteen offensive rating with

860
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:19,280
Speaker 1: Zubach on the floor versus eighten. And in those minutes,

861
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 1: Marcus Morris is three of thirteen and Paul George is

862
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:30,320
Speaker 1: eleven of twenty nine. So the Morris and George have

863
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:35,160
Speaker 1: shot terribly in what should be a bad matchup for

864
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 1: the Clippers with Zubac up against eighten because you have

865
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:42,240
Speaker 1: to play drop and the Clippers have won those minutes

866
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 1: by three points per hundred posessions, which is a considerable margin,

867
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:49,279
Speaker 1: especially in the playoff series with a one sixteen offensive rating. Now, now,

868
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:53,000
Speaker 1: the key on this is as good as Campaign has been.

869
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:56,800
Speaker 1: Cam's good at three pointers, and Cam's good at attacking

870
00:42:56,840 --> 00:43:00,520
Speaker 1: the basket on closeouts. Cam can't actually run the there

871
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:05,279
Speaker 1: are limitations to what Campaign can do. The numbers they

872
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:09,720
Speaker 1: are scoring less than one point per possession nine actually

873
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:14,760
Speaker 1: point nine to zero six with Campaign versus drop coverage

874
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 1: in this series. Chris Paul returns for Game three, So

875
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 1: if Zubotch drops, Chris is going to get to that

876
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:26,919
Speaker 1: mid range every single time. So your bet on Game three,

877
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:30,160
Speaker 1: I am telling you, whether it's the total or whether

878
00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 1: it is the side needs to be predicated on what

879
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 1: you think Chris Paul is going to do in this game,

880
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:39,880
Speaker 1: specifically from a scoring perspective. That is that to me

881
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 1: is literally going to be the difference in whether this

882
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 1: is a win or a loss for the Clippers.

883
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:48,880
Speaker 4: Brandon, I think the Clippers defense is in big trouble

884
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:51,880
Speaker 4: right now because here here's what's happened. Both games of

885
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:55,279
Speaker 4: this series. The Suns have shot sixty three percent on

886
00:43:55,400 --> 00:43:59,120
Speaker 4: two pointers. In Game two, the Sons worth thirty five

887
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 4: out of fifty on twos. And don't forget that was

888
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:06,320
Speaker 4: the game when Devin Booker couldn't make anything. Take Booker

889
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:09,720
Speaker 4: out of that equation. The rest of the Sons outside

890
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:12,400
Speaker 4: of Booker were thirty one of forty three on two pointers.

891
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,279
Speaker 4: That's seventy two percent, and that's a lot. That's a

892
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 4: lot of two pointers. Those are like, I know it's

893
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:20,279
Speaker 4: three is greater than two, and I know that the

894
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:22,200
Speaker 4: like the Clippers are hitting their shots and they're closing

895
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:24,200
Speaker 4: the gap. But if you're gonna keep giving up that

896
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 4: many automatic twos over and over again, and that percentage

897
00:44:28,040 --> 00:44:30,360
Speaker 4: can really only go up if Chris Paul is in

898
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:34,080
Speaker 4: and creating even better looks, because it's Chris Paul creating

899
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:38,480
Speaker 4: the looks instead of campaign Now, like that defense, it's

900
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 4: not holding up, and like we we saw the small

901
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 4: ball thing and suddenly it's like Morris is down to

902
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 4: twenty four minutes, but Toom didn't even play in the

903
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 4: first quarter and only played fifteen minutes. Like that, the

904
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:52,520
Speaker 4: Clippers are run out of bodies a little bit right here,

905
00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 4: and so I actually so game two, it looked like

906
00:44:57,160 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 4: the Clippers are gonna steal that game if you watch SI,

907
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 4: there's a term called a run of play, where where

908
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:04,839
Speaker 4: like when you're watching the game, even though it can

909
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:06,879
Speaker 4: be like zero zero and it's just tied and it's

910
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:09,439
Speaker 4: going back and forth, but like, you know who's winning

911
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:12,040
Speaker 4: the game right now. It hasn't happened yet. The goal

912
00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 4: hasn't come yet. But the way they're coming into waves,

913
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:18,279
Speaker 4: they're just coming, they're coming after coming, and they're getting

914
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:22,160
Speaker 4: attacks on, they're getting the shots on, and sometimes the

915
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:23,880
Speaker 4: run of play, the team that's winning the run of

916
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:24,879
Speaker 4: play doesn't win the game.

917
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:28,360
Speaker 3: That's what was going to happen. In Game two. The

918
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:30,880
Speaker 3: Sons were winning that game. The Sons felt like they

919
00:45:30,920 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 3: were in control.

920
00:45:32,200 --> 00:45:34,720
Speaker 4: Suddenly for like four minutes at the end, the Clippers

921
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:36,880
Speaker 4: had staged just close enough, suddenly hit a bunch of

922
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:38,640
Speaker 4: shots and they look like they're gonna steal a game.

923
00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 4: We know that can happen, but so far, through two games,

924
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:44,800
Speaker 4: the Sons have controlled the run of play. The Sons

925
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:48,000
Speaker 4: have felt perfectly comfortable and in control for two games.

926
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:52,440
Speaker 4: And now they're getting Chris Paul back, and so I

927
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:54,359
Speaker 4: just feel like, like I look at tonight, I don't

928
00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:57,319
Speaker 4: think it's gonna be easy. But I'm going the other

929
00:45:57,360 --> 00:45:57,840
Speaker 4: way from.

930
00:45:57,719 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 3: You, guys.

931
00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 4: I'm playing with Sons to sweep. And here's why, Because

932
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 4: I think tonight is is gonna be a tough game.

933
00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:07,759
Speaker 4: I think tonight is something close to a coin flip.

934
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:09,719
Speaker 4: That's about where the books are pricing it. I think

935
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:13,200
Speaker 4: that's about right. We know how good teams are when

936
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:15,400
Speaker 4: they're down. Now too, they're playing at home with the

937
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 4: first score, the first half thing on the Clippers. It's

938
00:46:17,640 --> 00:46:20,200
Speaker 4: gonna be a hard, hard game to pull. But look

939
00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 4: at the Clippers. If the Suns can win tonight, and

940
00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:26,120
Speaker 4: if they're fifty to fifty, then the Suns can win tonight.

941
00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:29,960
Speaker 4: Now you're the Clippers, You're down, oh three, Chris Paul

942
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:32,959
Speaker 4: just came back, Kawhi Leonnard ain't walking through that door.

943
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:35,839
Speaker 4: The rest of your guys are getting banged up. You're

944
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 4: down oh three. You just come off of back to

945
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:42,760
Speaker 4: back seven game series. Like, if the Suns win tonight,

946
00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:46,880
Speaker 4: it's done and the Clippers aren't coming back and putting

947
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 4: up a big fight. And we've seen how good the

948
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:51,719
Speaker 4: Suns are and closeout games so far this this postseason. Two,

949
00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 4: So Sons to sweep at bet MGM right now is

950
00:46:56,400 --> 00:47:00,759
Speaker 4: plus two sixty, and I think, to me, that's giving

951
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:03,839
Speaker 4: me something akin to a plus two sixty money line

952
00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:06,520
Speaker 4: for Phoenix to win tonight, because if they get the

953
00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 4: job done tonight and go up three to zero, I

954
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 4: think it's a wrap. And I don't think that the

955
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 4: Clippers mentally are going to come back out for the

956
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:14,399
Speaker 4: fight in Game four.

957
00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:16,759
Speaker 2: So the question I have for you is what do

958
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:19,640
Speaker 2: you make of Chris Paul not playing in a week

959
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 2: and a half. Yeah, I mean, I don't How does

960
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:24,359
Speaker 2: that factor int you hate Ken?

961
00:47:26,320 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, So one of the props today, one of our

962
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 4: props that are up already is I'm actually taking the

963
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:35,520
Speaker 4: Chris Paul under on points. His scoring hasn't been huge

964
00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:37,840
Speaker 4: in a lot of posting games anyway. Obviously part of

965
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 4: that is that shoulder injury that was happening earlier. He

966
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:42,879
Speaker 4: was huge against Denver, he was not scoring against LA.

967
00:47:44,600 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 4: I don't think that Chris Paul is going to play

968
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:48,560
Speaker 4: huge minutes. When we've seen guys come back from these

969
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 4: extended absences of these seasons, they're usually kind of eased

970
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 4: back into things. So I'm not expecting like vintage Chris

971
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:56,960
Speaker 4: Paul to show up and take over the game. But

972
00:47:57,680 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 4: what I am expecting is Chris Paul, whatever version of

973
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:03,759
Speaker 4: him we're getting for however many minutes we're getting, is

974
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:07,360
Speaker 4: playing instead of etwe more and is playing instead of

975
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:09,719
Speaker 4: like a few more campaign minutes. And like that's the

976
00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 4: trade that we're making, is getting Chris Paul into those minutes,

977
00:48:13,640 --> 00:48:17,440
Speaker 4: and like he you know, he doesn't forget to play basketball.

978
00:48:17,600 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 4: Like the conditioning maybe is going to take a little

979
00:48:19,680 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 4: bit to come back into play. But I think two

980
00:48:23,200 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 4: it's gonna be interesting. You talked about that the Tylu

981
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:29,120
Speaker 4: adjustments that are coming, and I think it's very fascinating

982
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:32,200
Speaker 4: that like this, this is when Tyler's adjustments have kicked

983
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:34,600
Speaker 4: in the last two series. The clips go down oh two,

984
00:48:35,160 --> 00:48:37,160
Speaker 4: and then the adjustments start coming and we see it

985
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:39,400
Speaker 4: kind of peak through in game three, and then it

986
00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:40,440
Speaker 4: just keeps getting.

987
00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:40,920
Speaker 3: Bigger and bigger.

988
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 4: Well, the Sons are accidentally making a huge adjustment right

989
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:46,440
Speaker 4: now because they're just putting Chris Paul back into the

990
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:47,120
Speaker 4: mix of things.

991
00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:48,880
Speaker 3: So it'll be really interesting to.

992
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:52,320
Speaker 4: Me to see what does TYLERU have up his sleeve

993
00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:54,280
Speaker 4: to try to adjust to what the Sons have already

994
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:56,200
Speaker 4: been doing. Well, if they've already been winning the run

995
00:48:56,280 --> 00:49:00,239
Speaker 4: of play, But now, how do the Sons already just

996
00:49:00,400 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 4: for that by by Chris Paul going back into the equation.

997
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 4: So I only think Chris Paul is like the panacea

998
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:08,919
Speaker 4: to fix everything for the Suns. But I also don't

999
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:11,360
Speaker 4: think the Sons have had all those many things to fix.

1000
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:13,960
Speaker 4: They shot six of twenty six on threes last game

1001
00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:18,320
Speaker 4: twenty three percent and won the game. Like Devin Booker

1002
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:20,960
Speaker 4: couldn't anything. They didn't hit their threes, Mikhale and Jay

1003
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 4: Crowder like stopped shooting when they missed early, but they won,

1004
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:24,839
Speaker 4: won the game.

1005
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:27,279
Speaker 1: But they won because of Paul George's missed free throws

1006
00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:29,360
Speaker 1: and one of the best inbound plays in NBA history.

1007
00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:31,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, but they also won.

1008
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:33,719
Speaker 1: No that like we gotta we gotta just that's like

1009
00:49:33,840 --> 00:49:38,440
Speaker 1: it like they did win, right, but they won because

1010
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 1: of a very weird because like this goes back to

1011
00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:41,719
Speaker 1: your earlier point where you're like, it felt like the

1012
00:49:41,800 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 1: Sons controlled the run and play. So why didn't they cover?

1013
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:49,879
Speaker 1: They're at home, The Clippers didn't shoot well either, Paul

1014
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:52,520
Speaker 1: Georgian have a great game. Why didn't they cover?

1015
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:57,200
Speaker 4: Because the because the Clippers made a bunch of shots

1016
00:49:57,239 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 4: and the like the last four minutes, like the Sons

1017
00:49:59,719 --> 00:50:02,319
Speaker 4: won for forty four minutes and then the Clippers made

1018
00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:04,120
Speaker 4: shots late and then it was but.

1019
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:06,279
Speaker 1: They never kicked them off. They never kecked them off

1020
00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:06,879
Speaker 1: the rope.

1021
00:50:07,239 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 4: You're absolutely right, But they were missing Chris Paul. They're

1022
00:50:09,960 --> 00:50:12,759
Speaker 4: missing their best player. And so like to play that

1023
00:50:13,000 --> 00:50:15,840
Speaker 4: poorly of a game with all those misshots and with

1024
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 4: so many of your guys not showing up and with

1025
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:22,040
Speaker 4: Chris Paul not out there and still controlling the game

1026
00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:25,760
Speaker 4: and putting yourself in a great position to win somewhat comfortably.

1027
00:50:25,840 --> 00:50:28,080
Speaker 3: Anyway, that's good. That's a good thing.

1028
00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:30,480
Speaker 4: You can do that, even if you blow the somewhat late.

1029
00:50:31,040 --> 00:50:34,600
Speaker 4: And like Paul George did, miss the free throws. Paul

1030
00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:36,600
Speaker 4: George shouldn't have had the free throws. That was like

1031
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:38,759
Speaker 4: one of the biggest bald on live free throws I've

1032
00:50:38,760 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 4: ever seen before. And let's talk to you about uh,

1033
00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:45,360
Speaker 4: let's mention the odds on this, Matt, because you you

1034
00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:48,160
Speaker 4: contacted the books about this yesterday and we wrote about

1035
00:50:48,160 --> 00:50:51,960
Speaker 4: this up at Action Network. So the Value, which is

1036
00:50:52,040 --> 00:50:53,960
Speaker 4: an awesome name for a play, and that is a

1037
00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 4: play that we are gonna remember for a very long time.

1038
00:50:58,000 --> 00:51:02,160
Speaker 4: So Matt talked a book and bet MGM. So right

1039
00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:04,040
Speaker 4: now the Suns are minus eight hundred to win a series.

1040
00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:08,280
Speaker 4: Bet MGM told Matt that if that elliot goes awry,

1041
00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:10,880
Speaker 4: they miss it. You know, the passes off, goes off

1042
00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:13,319
Speaker 4: the back of the backboard, whatever happens, there's one hundred

1043
00:51:13,360 --> 00:51:14,960
Speaker 4: things that could have gone wrong. They don't get a

1044
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:17,840
Speaker 4: time out for free off of the seven hundred threeplay

1045
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:18,480
Speaker 4: to set it up.

1046
00:51:18,560 --> 00:51:19,120
Speaker 3: Whatever it is.

1047
00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:22,520
Speaker 4: Suddenly the Suns are only minus one sixty five to

1048
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:25,120
Speaker 4: win the series instead, So right now the Suns are

1049
00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:28,279
Speaker 4: implied eighty nine percent to win the series. Instead, they

1050
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:30,800
Speaker 4: would have been at sixty two percent. So that is

1051
00:51:31,160 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 4: almost a thirty percent swing in how likely the Suns

1052
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:34,880
Speaker 4: are to win the series.

1053
00:51:35,000 --> 00:51:36,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, but that's so That's what was interesting, I think

1054
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:39,920
Speaker 1: is if you're betting the series and you want to

1055
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:41,960
Speaker 1: know like how to factor it that, I think that's

1056
00:51:41,960 --> 00:51:44,000
Speaker 1: actually a great way to put it. Do you think

1057
00:51:44,160 --> 00:51:48,640
Speaker 1: that the Sun's winning that game was worth seven hundred

1058
00:51:48,640 --> 00:51:53,960
Speaker 1: and fifty points of value like that? That's really what

1059
00:51:54,040 --> 00:51:55,320
Speaker 1: comes down to if you look at that and you go,

1060
00:51:55,760 --> 00:51:57,120
Speaker 1: like I look at that and they go, you know what,

1061
00:51:57,239 --> 00:51:59,800
Speaker 1: great win. That's like maybe the difference in the series.

1062
00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:01,360
Speaker 1: Do think it's gonna be the difference in the series.

1063
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:05,000
Speaker 1: But I also think that because they need everything to

1064
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:06,800
Speaker 1: go that way, the Clippers are live in the series.

1065
00:52:07,040 --> 00:52:07,759
Speaker 2: I do not like.

1066
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:10,400
Speaker 1: I I will say I do not like the Suns

1067
00:52:10,480 --> 00:52:13,160
Speaker 1: to sweep bet Now I'm willing to be wrong, like

1068
00:52:13,239 --> 00:52:13,839
Speaker 1: we'll see tonight.

1069
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:14,520
Speaker 2: I do agree with you.

1070
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:17,040
Speaker 1: If they lose tonight, it's done. So I'm basically saying,

1071
00:52:17,120 --> 00:52:19,399
Speaker 1: like the Clippers have to look to win tonight. There's

1072
00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:22,279
Speaker 1: no way the Clippers win tonight. And I can't necessarily

1073
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:24,480
Speaker 1: say that like things can go awry, that's just something

1074
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:28,480
Speaker 1: that happens. I do think you mentioned like that the

1075
00:52:28,520 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 1: matchup stuff and like the what's the adjustment? A lot

1076
00:52:31,120 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 1: of it. Here's what it is. But Toom has the

1077
00:52:33,640 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 1: best on court net rating of any Clipper in this series.

1078
00:52:36,680 --> 00:52:38,960
Speaker 1: That's gonna be the adjustment is. But Tom's gonna play more.

1079
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:40,000
Speaker 1: They're gonna play and.

1080
00:52:40,120 --> 00:52:43,399
Speaker 3: He's been last game like why why why did why

1081
00:52:43,440 --> 00:52:44,400
Speaker 3: did he be because Tyler?

1082
00:52:44,800 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 1: Because Tyler takes until Game three to make the adjustments.

1083
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:50,319
Speaker 1: Brandon like he's gonna play, He's gonna play but two

1084
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 1: more and Ragon Rondo less. That's been the adjustment in

1085
00:52:52,600 --> 00:52:55,239
Speaker 1: each of the in the last two series has been

1086
00:52:55,800 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 1: he plays Rondo because it's Rondo, and Rondo's gonna do

1087
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:01,239
Speaker 1: Rondo things, and then run of doesn't do run now

1088
00:53:01,280 --> 00:53:03,400
Speaker 1: things like oh, we should actually play the good players. Okay, now,

1089
00:53:03,800 --> 00:53:06,239
Speaker 1: now we'll just play the good players instead. Here's the

1090
00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:08,479
Speaker 1: other thing. I do think Marcus Morris, Well, Marcus Morris

1091
00:53:08,520 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 1: has knee soreness. That's there's been no discussion of a strain,

1092
00:53:14,400 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 1: of a terror, of anything like that. Maybe he's got it,

1093
00:53:17,760 --> 00:53:20,040
Speaker 1: that's possible, but I think it's entirely also possible that

1094
00:53:20,120 --> 00:53:22,560
Speaker 1: Marcus Morris just feels better today and that would help them.

1095
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:26,359
Speaker 4: That's just called like being in your thirties. I'm also

1096
00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:28,480
Speaker 4: questionable with that waking.

1097
00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:32,960
Speaker 1: All right, let's go over a couple of things real

1098
00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:35,319
Speaker 1: quick while we're on this podcast. Actually, Rick Carlisle got

1099
00:53:35,400 --> 00:53:37,360
Speaker 1: hired as a coach of the Indiana Pacers.

1100
00:53:38,120 --> 00:53:39,479
Speaker 3: Oh my, big deal.

1101
00:53:40,040 --> 00:53:42,000
Speaker 1: So I will just say that I like to move.

1102
00:53:42,560 --> 00:53:45,160
Speaker 1: I also think this probably indicates that Carlisle got word

1103
00:53:45,239 --> 00:53:47,719
Speaker 1: that the Bucks are not going to fire Mike Budenholzer

1104
00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:50,040
Speaker 1: no matter what. So I'm very sorry Bucks fans because

1105
00:53:50,280 --> 00:53:52,000
Speaker 1: I would presume that Carlisle was going to wait for

1106
00:53:52,040 --> 00:53:55,320
Speaker 1: that job to become available. Carlisle, I think we'll do

1107
00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:57,640
Speaker 1: good with the Pacers. I also think this increases the

1108
00:53:57,640 --> 00:53:59,959
Speaker 1: odds of a Malcolm Brogden trade by about seven hundred

1109
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:03,440
Speaker 1: percent because Rick Carlyle does not get along with point guards,

1110
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:07,239
Speaker 1: never has, never will. He fought, he fought with He

1111
00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:11,040
Speaker 1: fought with Jason Kidd, he fought with Darren Collison, he

1112
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:14,239
Speaker 1: fought with oj Mayo wasn't even a point guard. He fought.

1113
00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:18,719
Speaker 1: He clearly had battles with Luca. He doesn't get along

1114
00:54:18,719 --> 00:54:20,719
Speaker 1: with his guards. He just does not get along with

1115
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:22,960
Speaker 1: his guards. That's a thing. So I'll just tell you,

1116
00:54:23,080 --> 00:54:24,960
Speaker 1: like this is not based off of the intel. I'm

1117
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:27,960
Speaker 1: just saying like after they go through public, maybe a season,

1118
00:54:28,120 --> 00:54:31,160
Speaker 1: maybe he'll be two, there's gonna be problems between Rick

1119
00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:33,719
Speaker 1: Carlisle and Malcolm Brogden unless that is the one guy

1120
00:54:33,840 --> 00:54:36,680
Speaker 1: who is who is just so cerebral that he and

1121
00:54:36,800 --> 00:54:40,280
Speaker 1: Carlisle get it wrong. But I don't necessarily see Carlisle,

1122
00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:44,400
Speaker 1: like Carlisle's is a very smart guy but like Brogden

1123
00:54:44,520 --> 00:54:46,840
Speaker 1: is a true intellectual, like he's gonna do amazing things

1124
00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:49,600
Speaker 1: in public health policy after he gets out of the NBA,

1125
00:54:50,160 --> 00:54:53,920
Speaker 1: Like he's already doing great work off the court. Different

1126
00:54:54,040 --> 00:54:57,200
Speaker 1: kinds of approaches, and so I think that there's gonna

1127
00:54:57,200 --> 00:54:59,280
Speaker 1: be tension there, but I think the Pacers will overall

1128
00:54:59,320 --> 00:55:01,560
Speaker 1: be better and then wind up being good. I still

1129
00:55:01,600 --> 00:55:02,920
Speaker 1: kind of want to see if they're gonna trade one

1130
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:05,839
Speaker 1: of the biggest summer but that's the deal that happened.

1131
00:55:05,880 --> 00:55:06,160
Speaker 2: You got it.

1132
00:55:06,239 --> 00:55:08,520
Speaker 1: Do either of you have reactions to Carlisle getting hard.

1133
00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:11,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I think that's I love it. I

1134
00:55:11,760 --> 00:55:14,480
Speaker 4: love it Fordiana. Anytime you can bring in Rick Carlisle

1135
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:17,600
Speaker 4: like that. That is a team that I was really

1136
00:55:17,600 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 4: excited about this season because if this past season, if

1137
00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:24,000
Speaker 4: they're starting five had actually ever played together, like even

1138
00:55:24,120 --> 00:55:26,200
Speaker 4: for a second, I was excited to see what that

1139
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:29,280
Speaker 4: was gonna look like because it's a very good five,

1140
00:55:29,480 --> 00:55:32,759
Speaker 4: Like it's just five good players to be able to

1141
00:55:33,040 --> 00:55:34,640
Speaker 4: roll that lineup out, and we never really got to

1142
00:55:34,680 --> 00:55:37,880
Speaker 4: see it. So I think to give that to Carlisle.

1143
00:55:38,080 --> 00:55:42,440
Speaker 4: We saw Indiana's bench come through, like TJ McConnell win

1144
00:55:42,600 --> 00:55:44,360
Speaker 4: for TJ. He's gonna be playing a lot. We know

1145
00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:47,400
Speaker 4: how Carlile loves to play those undersized point guards, like

1146
00:55:47,480 --> 00:55:49,080
Speaker 4: TJ is gonna be out there in like a three

1147
00:55:49,120 --> 00:55:54,160
Speaker 4: point guard lineup some of these games justin Holliday developed. Well, yeah,

1148
00:55:54,200 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 4: I think that Indiana's gonna be really good. Like I

1149
00:55:56,239 --> 00:56:01,360
Speaker 4: can see that team if they're healthy and with Rick Carlisle,

1150
00:56:01,480 --> 00:56:03,919
Speaker 4: like that's an over I'm definitely looking at now coming

1151
00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:06,000
Speaker 4: the next season, and that's a team that I can

1152
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:08,759
Speaker 4: easily see like bumping up into that like three four

1153
00:56:08,800 --> 00:56:10,839
Speaker 4: seed range because the talent has already been.

1154
00:56:10,800 --> 00:56:13,279
Speaker 3: There and Carlisle, like the thing that he does.

1155
00:56:13,920 --> 00:56:16,160
Speaker 4: There are some of the personnel things we know about that,

1156
00:56:16,560 --> 00:56:19,680
Speaker 4: but he's so good at figuring out, Okay, these guys

1157
00:56:19,719 --> 00:56:20,759
Speaker 4: on my team, what do they.

1158
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:22,719
Speaker 3: Do well, well, I'm gonna have them do that. Now,

1159
00:56:23,239 --> 00:56:25,600
Speaker 3: I'm gonna have them succeed at the things they do well.

1160
00:56:25,719 --> 00:56:27,400
Speaker 3: I'm going to hide the things they don't do well.

1161
00:56:27,480 --> 00:56:29,239
Speaker 3: And I know that seems obvious, but we've just been

1162
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:31,160
Speaker 3: saying coaches don't always do that.

1163
00:56:31,719 --> 00:56:35,640
Speaker 4: And Carlisle is so good at taking limited guys and

1164
00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:38,000
Speaker 4: letting them do the thing that they're awesome at and

1165
00:56:38,200 --> 00:56:41,880
Speaker 4: he's He's got a lot of talent here. No superstar necessarily,

1166
00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:45,440
Speaker 4: sorry to Demonese the Bonus fans, but a lot of

1167
00:56:45,520 --> 00:56:48,800
Speaker 4: talent at five positions. I'm excited for what Miles Turner

1168
00:56:48,800 --> 00:56:52,520
Speaker 4: will look like because I think that that's a player

1169
00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:55,560
Speaker 4: with a very specific skill set that could be a

1170
00:56:55,640 --> 00:56:58,160
Speaker 4: limited skill set or a very good one if you

1171
00:56:58,200 --> 00:56:59,960
Speaker 4: have a coach like Carlisle who knows how to unlo

1172
00:57:00,480 --> 00:57:02,480
Speaker 4: So I think it's a great move for them.

1173
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:04,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, without a doubt.

1174
00:57:04,520 --> 00:57:05,799
Speaker 5: I mean, anytime you can get one of the best

1175
00:57:05,840 --> 00:57:09,040
Speaker 5: coaches in the league and you can replace Nate York

1176
00:57:09,080 --> 00:57:10,439
Speaker 5: and I think you come out.

1177
00:57:10,320 --> 00:57:10,719
Speaker 1: With a win.

1178
00:57:11,120 --> 00:57:13,399
Speaker 5: And then you're also getting TJ. Warren back. This year,

1179
00:57:14,120 --> 00:57:16,320
Speaker 5: you're getting Miles Turner back. So it's just like this

1180
00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:18,919
Speaker 5: team hasn't been healthy the whole year. They didn't really

1181
00:57:19,040 --> 00:57:21,600
Speaker 5: enjoy their coach. So I think, you know, they're easily

1182
00:57:21,640 --> 00:57:23,600
Speaker 5: a playoff team, and you know they could be a

1183
00:57:23,640 --> 00:57:25,520
Speaker 5: team that's gonna, you know, challenge the team.

1184
00:57:25,400 --> 00:57:25,960
Speaker 2: In the playoffs.

1185
00:57:27,520 --> 00:57:30,240
Speaker 5: I just wish the Sixers could have got carl out

1186
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:32,920
Speaker 5: for Doc, but I saw I'm a little I'm a

1187
00:57:32,960 --> 00:57:33,760
Speaker 5: little sorry about that.

1188
00:57:33,920 --> 00:57:36,040
Speaker 1: But hey, I just want to congratulate you, Raheem, because

1189
00:57:36,040 --> 00:57:37,920
Speaker 1: we had news dropped on during the podcast and it

1190
00:57:37,960 --> 00:57:39,320
Speaker 1: didn't take you three hours to come up with a

1191
00:57:39,360 --> 00:57:39,800
Speaker 1: position on it.

1192
00:57:39,880 --> 00:57:40,280
Speaker 2: So a good job.

1193
00:57:40,320 --> 00:57:42,760
Speaker 1: I'm just wanted like, good job like you were you

1194
00:57:42,800 --> 00:57:44,520
Speaker 1: were quick to if you only you were as quick

1195
00:57:44,560 --> 00:57:47,160
Speaker 1: with your takes on your feet as you are with

1196
00:57:47,240 --> 00:57:50,640
Speaker 1: your bets. But I think one's more profitable for you. Morego.

1197
00:57:50,760 --> 00:57:54,880
Speaker 1: Let's talk real quick about the NBA lottery. Obviously you're

1198
00:57:54,920 --> 00:57:56,520
Speaker 1: listening to this, you know the results of the lottery.

1199
00:57:56,920 --> 00:57:59,400
Speaker 1: We have a lot of content up on Action Network

1200
00:57:59,720 --> 00:58:03,080
Speaker 1: all ready branded a breakdown of kaid. You can do

1201
00:58:04,440 --> 00:58:06,880
Speaker 1: all sorts of stuff there. Read stuff about that. I

1202
00:58:07,000 --> 00:58:09,200
Speaker 1: am seeing that there are books starting to put out

1203
00:58:09,320 --> 00:58:12,479
Speaker 1: draft position props. You can get first, second, third, and fourth,

1204
00:58:12,600 --> 00:58:14,640
Speaker 1: and you can get player draft position on some of them.

1205
00:58:15,200 --> 00:58:16,840
Speaker 1: I will go ahead and put out put this out there.

1206
00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:20,600
Speaker 1: My number one is going to be cominga over so

1207
00:58:20,720 --> 00:58:23,240
Speaker 1: for him to go later in the draft, I think

1208
00:58:23,280 --> 00:58:24,960
Speaker 1: that there's a very good chance that he's just simply

1209
00:58:25,360 --> 00:58:29,640
Speaker 1: I am my Brandon. My my target is going to

1210
00:58:29,720 --> 00:58:32,960
Speaker 1: be going for guys. I think that teams have shifted

1211
00:58:33,080 --> 00:58:36,280
Speaker 1: and no longer take raw guys as soon. I think

1212
00:58:36,320 --> 00:58:40,439
Speaker 1: they want more polished skill sets with where the play

1213
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:41,680
Speaker 1: of the game is at right now.

1214
00:58:41,960 --> 00:58:43,720
Speaker 4: To me, that makes sense, except that I think it's

1215
00:58:43,760 --> 00:58:45,680
Speaker 4: going to depend a lot on who the team is

1216
00:58:45,720 --> 00:58:49,640
Speaker 4: it's making the peck because you look like some of

1217
00:58:49,680 --> 00:58:55,120
Speaker 4: the teams, like the Houston Rockets, like Orlando Oklahoma City.

1218
00:58:56,000 --> 00:58:58,840
Speaker 4: First of all, Orlando in Oklahoma City not exactly known

1219
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:02,480
Speaker 4: for taking polish play in the draft. Like, find me

1220
00:59:02,600 --> 00:59:05,120
Speaker 4: someone who's like a hyper athlete like Keon Johnson just

1221
00:59:05,280 --> 00:59:08,120
Speaker 4: had a forty eight inch vertical leap. Sign him up

1222
00:59:08,160 --> 00:59:10,560
Speaker 4: for Orlando or Oklahoma City. You got a hyper athletic

1223
00:59:10,600 --> 00:59:13,080
Speaker 4: wing that does not a shoot yet, Like we got

1224
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:16,200
Speaker 4: GMS drooling over bringing those guys to one of those teams.

1225
00:59:16,720 --> 00:59:21,160
Speaker 4: But I think, to me, is it's an interesting draft

1226
00:59:21,240 --> 00:59:24,680
Speaker 4: this year because Toronto picks at four, Golden State picks

1227
00:59:24,720 --> 00:59:27,760
Speaker 4: at seven. These are teams that certainly the fans are

1228
00:59:27,840 --> 00:59:30,800
Speaker 4: clamoring for polish. I want the guy who's ready now.

1229
00:59:30,960 --> 00:59:32,720
Speaker 4: I want someone to come in and play right now,

1230
00:59:32,880 --> 00:59:35,240
Speaker 4: not the guy who might play five years from now

1231
00:59:35,360 --> 00:59:37,520
Speaker 4: after he develops two years in the G League and

1232
00:59:37,600 --> 00:59:39,600
Speaker 4: then like cost Us a bunch of games and then

1233
00:59:39,640 --> 00:59:43,400
Speaker 4: eventually gets good. I think that the divide is where's

1234
00:59:43,480 --> 00:59:46,040
Speaker 4: your team at. If you're the Rockets, if you're the Thunder,

1235
00:59:46,080 --> 00:59:48,320
Speaker 4: if you're the Magic, you got to take swings. You

1236
00:59:48,360 --> 00:59:50,520
Speaker 4: can't necessarily take the polish. You've got to take the

1237
00:59:50,600 --> 00:59:53,800
Speaker 4: long term plan. And some of those cases that's that's good.

1238
00:59:54,320 --> 00:59:56,080
Speaker 4: You don't want the polish. You want the long term

1239
00:59:56,080 --> 00:59:58,240
Speaker 4: plan that actually makes you lose more now and keeps

1240
00:59:58,240 --> 00:59:59,520
Speaker 4: your picks high for the next year.

1241
01:00:00,120 --> 01:00:03,040
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think I think it'll be interesting to

1242
01:00:03,080 --> 01:00:04,000
Speaker 3: see how it plays out.

1243
01:00:04,480 --> 01:00:06,600
Speaker 4: The Raptors moving up to four is huge for them

1244
01:00:06,720 --> 01:00:09,920
Speaker 4: for their franchise, to get like that one step back

1245
01:00:10,000 --> 01:00:11,760
Speaker 4: for one year and even a half a year. Like

1246
01:00:12,240 --> 01:00:13,680
Speaker 4: I think we all thought if they had tried, they

1247
01:00:13,680 --> 01:00:15,800
Speaker 4: probably could have made the play in tournament this year

1248
01:00:16,200 --> 01:00:18,520
Speaker 4: and made a push, and instead they took a little

1249
01:00:18,520 --> 01:00:20,080
Speaker 4: bit of a step back and they get a big

1250
01:00:20,160 --> 01:00:22,320
Speaker 4: pick now, so to be able to add like a

1251
01:00:22,400 --> 01:00:25,000
Speaker 4: Jalen Suggs or Jalen Green to that core or be

1252
01:00:25,080 --> 01:00:28,040
Speaker 4: able to use that as a valuable trade chip. I

1253
01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:31,480
Speaker 4: think it's a big spot for Toronto. So Toronto and

1254
01:00:31,520 --> 01:00:33,960
Speaker 4: Golden state. I think if you're looking at how's impact

1255
01:00:34,080 --> 01:00:36,840
Speaker 4: next year's NBA, those two teams are the teams that

1256
01:00:36,920 --> 01:00:39,840
Speaker 4: I think have have a spot now to really add

1257
01:00:39,880 --> 01:00:42,280
Speaker 4: a key piece or to use that pick to add

1258
01:00:42,320 --> 01:00:46,080
Speaker 4: a key player piece and like affect the contender picture

1259
01:00:46,600 --> 01:00:46,880
Speaker 4: right here.

1260
01:00:46,880 --> 01:00:48,280
Speaker 1: Are you gonna bet the end the draft?

1261
01:00:48,280 --> 01:00:50,080
Speaker 2: At all? Not at all?

1262
01:00:50,920 --> 01:00:53,200
Speaker 3: Nothing a single a single thing.

1263
01:00:53,440 --> 01:00:55,560
Speaker 1: We're not going to talk you into one one prop

1264
01:00:55,640 --> 01:00:57,200
Speaker 1: on it unless.

1265
01:00:56,920 --> 01:00:59,760
Speaker 2: I get like a tip from somebody who's like really sharp,

1266
01:01:00,120 --> 01:01:01,160
Speaker 2: like one of you two, I.

1267
01:01:01,280 --> 01:01:04,840
Speaker 1: Like, how one of us how you saved yourself there?

1268
01:01:05,080 --> 01:01:10,520
Speaker 1: Unless I get a tip from somebody who's really sharp, including.

1269
01:01:10,000 --> 01:01:12,160
Speaker 2: You, No, including one of you too. I mean, you

1270
01:01:12,160 --> 01:01:12,600
Speaker 2: know what it is.

1271
01:01:12,720 --> 01:01:15,320
Speaker 5: I just I don't watch any college basketball. That's the

1272
01:01:15,400 --> 01:01:18,080
Speaker 5: disadvantage that I have. Or when it comes to like

1273
01:01:18,200 --> 01:01:20,000
Speaker 5: the draft, so it's just like I feel like I'm

1274
01:01:20,040 --> 01:01:22,480
Speaker 5: literally gambling. So it's just like I'm probably gonna be

1275
01:01:22,520 --> 01:01:24,920
Speaker 5: hitting YouTube up and seeing what you guys are on

1276
01:01:25,600 --> 01:01:27,520
Speaker 5: or you know, talking to some other gambles and see

1277
01:01:27,560 --> 01:01:29,720
Speaker 5: if it's anything there. But otherwise I'm not gonna have

1278
01:01:29,760 --> 01:01:30,280
Speaker 5: anything on it.

1279
01:01:30,840 --> 01:01:34,200
Speaker 4: We're gonna have some profiles coming out on the top five,

1280
01:01:34,320 --> 01:01:38,520
Speaker 4: so Evan Mobley, Jalen Green, Jalen Suggs, and Jonathan Kuminga

1281
01:01:38,520 --> 01:01:41,400
Speaker 4: will have profiles coming on them. Have shorter profiles on

1282
01:01:41,520 --> 01:01:43,439
Speaker 4: some of the international guys, and some of the guys

1283
01:01:43,440 --> 01:01:45,640
Speaker 4: a little bit deeper down the draft, and some sleepers

1284
01:01:45,680 --> 01:01:48,160
Speaker 4: to watch for. Uh, we're gonna be writing about some

1285
01:01:48,240 --> 01:01:51,040
Speaker 4: trends coming in the draft. So we're about one month

1286
01:01:51,120 --> 01:01:54,080
Speaker 4: out right now, so pay attention, keep keep an eye

1287
01:01:54,120 --> 01:01:55,880
Speaker 4: on the Action app, make sure you've got that, make

1288
01:01:55,920 --> 01:01:59,080
Speaker 4: sure on the site. Lots of draft content coming. We're

1289
01:01:59,120 --> 01:02:01,480
Speaker 4: down only one and NBA Game of Day and we

1290
01:02:01,600 --> 01:02:03,800
Speaker 4: may only have like thirteen or fourteen games left on

1291
01:02:03,840 --> 01:02:06,480
Speaker 4: the season, so as the games start to thin out

1292
01:02:06,480 --> 01:02:09,240
Speaker 4: a little bit, we're moving towards some draft coverage, so

1293
01:02:09,320 --> 01:02:10,760
Speaker 4: make sure to keep an eye out for that stuff.

1294
01:02:11,560 --> 01:02:13,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'll have stuffup based off of intel from

1295
01:02:13,360 --> 01:02:15,200
Speaker 1: what I hear in the league and some of the things.

1296
01:02:15,280 --> 01:02:17,520
Speaker 1: The number one thing I'll tell you is do not

1297
01:02:18,320 --> 01:02:21,520
Speaker 1: do not do not look at the major mock drafts

1298
01:02:22,600 --> 01:02:24,200
Speaker 1: and place your best based off of those.

1299
01:02:24,400 --> 01:02:28,840
Speaker 2: Oh oh wow, Okay, And the biggest.

1300
01:02:28,440 --> 01:02:31,160
Speaker 1: Reason it's not that those guys are not plugged in.

1301
01:02:31,720 --> 01:02:33,720
Speaker 1: They are more plugged in than I am plugged in.

1302
01:02:35,760 --> 01:02:42,600
Speaker 1: There are there are influencers on those drafts that sometimes

1303
01:02:42,720 --> 01:02:48,040
Speaker 1: will ignore the context of the teams in selection position,

1304
01:02:49,240 --> 01:02:57,720
Speaker 1: and oftentimes decisions are influenced by scouting departments more than

1305
01:02:57,960 --> 01:03:00,240
Speaker 1: some of the political stuff at the top. It's a

1306
01:03:00,520 --> 01:03:04,080
Speaker 1: complicated process. Those in the analysis on those picks are

1307
01:03:04,080 --> 01:03:07,120
Speaker 1: always really great. I'm just telling you from a betting perspective,

1308
01:03:08,800 --> 01:03:12,280
Speaker 1: don't take don't look at the at at don't look

1309
01:03:12,400 --> 01:03:17,720
Speaker 1: at the major mocks from the major companies and go ooh,

1310
01:03:17,840 --> 01:03:21,360
Speaker 1: they've got this guy as four. He's four, he's four,

1311
01:03:21,480 --> 01:03:23,720
Speaker 1: five and six, and his propose is six and a half.

1312
01:03:26,200 --> 01:03:29,640
Speaker 1: Do you got to have better more singular, very selective

1313
01:03:29,680 --> 01:03:34,400
Speaker 1: approaches on that stuff. Killian Hayes is a great example

1314
01:03:34,440 --> 01:03:38,080
Speaker 1: of this. Killian Hayes was projected way lower on most

1315
01:03:38,120 --> 01:03:41,200
Speaker 1: of the major mocks last year, but the guys that

1316
01:03:41,320 --> 01:03:44,640
Speaker 1: do in depth draft work for teams had him much higher,

1317
01:03:45,400 --> 01:03:47,760
Speaker 1: and him going top ten was a pretty easy bet

1318
01:03:47,800 --> 01:03:50,080
Speaker 1: that we catched on last season. All right, Le's go

1319
01:03:50,200 --> 01:03:52,120
Speaker 1: wrap it up for the Action Network podcast. Thanks for

1320
01:03:52,240 --> 01:03:55,080
Speaker 1: joining us. Make sure to rate, review, and subscribe. Check

1321
01:03:55,080 --> 01:03:57,160
Speaker 1: out all the great shows on the Action Network Podcast.

1322
01:03:57,200 --> 01:03:59,320
Speaker 1: Also make sure check out the Favorites twice a week,

1323
01:03:59,480 --> 01:04:01,600
Speaker 1: which had Helman and Simon Hunter. It's a great show.

1324
01:04:02,360 --> 01:04:04,760
Speaker 1: Download the Action Network app on your mobile device right

1325
01:04:04,840 --> 01:04:08,440
Speaker 1: now for Raheem Palmer, Brandon Anderson, I'm Matt Moore. Thanks

1326
01:04:08,480 --> 01:04:11,040
Speaker 1: for joining us on the Action Network NBA podcast.

1327
01:04:15,520 --> 01:04:16,560
Speaker 2: We're finished talking