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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Running in the court, ten seconds remaining, so he just

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Speaker 1: goes throw un to the basket. Under the basket.

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Speaker 2: It's the true for the wind God, a miracle.

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Speaker 1: It's water hit that.

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Speaker 2: One from the parking lot.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Big Bets on Campus Podcast. I'm Mike Calvary's

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Speaker 1: joined by my Action and we're co host Duck Duck.

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Speaker 1: It's just a two man game. In today's episode, Christian

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Speaker 1: is gonna be out for the next few weeks. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna have Tanner McGrath hitting this up as our sub

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Speaker 1: He's gonna essentially be running point in the next episode.

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Speaker 1: Love having Tanner in there. No one knows more about

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Speaker 1: x's and o's really, I mean, anyone I've ever met.

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Speaker 1: The guy did a breakdown two years ago of you know,

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Speaker 1: Hurley's offense with Yukon. It's still something that is worth

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Speaker 1: your time. If you want to understand half court sets,

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Speaker 1: kind of get inside of the whiteboard, understand what mixed

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Speaker 1: teams so good in the half court. Tanner is all

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Speaker 1: over it. He did a great job earlier this year

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Speaker 1: during Feast week being our point guard, setting us up

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Speaker 1: for picks. So he's gonna be back next episode and

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Speaker 1: then before you know it, Christian will be back in

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Speaker 1: the fold. But for today's episode, it's a little two

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Speaker 1: man game, little stock to him alone. I'm gonna start

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Speaker 1: there for you. Did you ever play NBA Jam? Was

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Speaker 1: that something on you know, the arcade console that you played,

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Speaker 1: you know, the cabinet or maybe you had it on

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Speaker 1: the Sega. Was that something that was a part of

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Speaker 1: your childhood? He's eating up.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I played an NBA Jam on Supernintendo.

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Speaker 1: All right, what was your team back then?

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Speaker 2: Sonics?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Sonics, tramp Sonics are a great answer.

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Speaker 1: You got you got the Glove, you got the rain Man,

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Speaker 1: you got Debt Lift. I mean just excellent Camp.

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Speaker 2: Yeah yeah.

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Speaker 1: Camp was just absolutely ridiculous in that game, just from

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Speaker 1: a nineties and stalagea factor. I love the Charlotte Hornets

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Speaker 1: because you could go Bogues for the speed with Morning

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Speaker 1: or LJ, or go with the big man lineup LJ

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Speaker 1: and Zo and they both could get to the ten

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Speaker 1: anytime they want to just l and dunkin over people.

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Speaker 1: Just I hope that gen Z behind us doesn't lose

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Speaker 1: out on you know, NBAGM. I know there's like kind

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Speaker 1: of a nostalgia wave for a little bit, and there's

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Speaker 1: still bars basically in every major city to have like

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Speaker 1: that video game Elements Arcade bar Barcade in New York City.

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Speaker 1: It's still just an incredible product. I think that should

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Speaker 1: live on absolutely forever. But that being said, you went

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Speaker 1: with Seattle, I went with Charlotte. It's a two man

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Speaker 1: game in this episode. So we're gonna hop in with

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Speaker 1: our looks high level on the sport, a little bit

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Speaker 1: of our rants, and then we're gonna get into our

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Speaker 1: best bets for the weekend. We're gonna give out picks

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Speaker 1: for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday with some look ahead lines,

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Speaker 1: with some lines that are based on projections. I know

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Speaker 1: it's not the most idea, but we will want to

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Speaker 1: give you things that are actionable, try to give you

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Speaker 1: a window in terms of a spread or a total

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Speaker 1: that we're looking at. As I've said earlier in the season,

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Speaker 1: the b end of the year projections not really worth

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Speaker 1: a dam, to be honest, even when you're looking at

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Speaker 1: Torvik Evan mia Ken Palm. But the later we get

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Speaker 1: into the season, the more those numbers get refined the

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Speaker 1: closer they are within a point nine half two points,

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Speaker 1: you know, on both the total and the sides. I've

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Speaker 1: seen this kind of tighten up, particularly in conference season

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Speaker 1: as well. I think these projections are pretty sharp, so

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Speaker 1: we're given out numbers that you're going to be able

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Speaker 1: to play. That being said, let's get started with your

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Speaker 1: high level take here before we get to our picks.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, it's a team that we talked about

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Speaker 2: that had gone through some transition earlier in the season.

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Speaker 2: But I've been really impressed with Texas Tech about the

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Speaker 2: last four or five games, and when I looked this

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Speaker 2: morning at the futures market, the Red Raiders are thirty

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Speaker 2: five to one to win it all. Just seems a

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Speaker 2: little bit steep. These guys went toe to toe with Houston,

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Speaker 2: they've already defeated Duke, and it's just a team that

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Speaker 2: could go on a deep run here the second half

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Speaker 2: of the conference schedule. Maybe they pick off Houston again

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Speaker 2: or Arizona or Iowa State down the stretch and they're

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Speaker 2: able to maintain their position as a projected four seed.

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Speaker 2: I think we could be looking at are I mean,

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Speaker 2: you get into a one and done scenario. And you

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Speaker 2: get Grant mccaslan and that defense some time to really

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Speaker 2: hone in on the first two opponents that they have

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Speaker 2: to play. I won't be surprised at all if these

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Speaker 2: guys get to the second weekend.

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Speaker 1: JT.

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Speaker 2: Toppin is still a force. You've got Christian Anderson Watts

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Speaker 2: at well. These guys, they're healthy for the most part.

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Speaker 2: They're maybe just flying a little under the radar respective

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Speaker 2: to the rest of the major players in the futures market,

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Speaker 2: and I just feel like this is a team that

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Speaker 2: should not be forgotten. They probably not the best team

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Speaker 2: in college basketball, but at thirty five to one, you

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Speaker 2: get them into the one and done situations as a four.

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Speaker 2: Possibly take a little bit to get them to the

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Speaker 2: three line, but as a four, you know, if they

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Speaker 2: get get into the right matchups. I wouldn't be surprised

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Speaker 2: at all if Texas Tech is one of those teams

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Speaker 2: that we're talking about even into the Elite eight sort

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Speaker 2: of category. So I'm going to be pushing across a

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Speaker 2: future here on Texas Tech. That's not anything to take

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Speaker 2: away from our Houston future that we talked about a

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Speaker 2: couple of weeks back. As I love what the Cougars

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Speaker 2: are doing. They're probably my favorite team to watch in

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Speaker 2: college hoops. But I just feel like this one here

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Speaker 2: is a a little bit long for pricing, and so

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Speaker 2: I'm going to be diving in here.

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Speaker 1: With Texas Tech, I think the Big Twelve, this is

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Speaker 1: one of those years you can go back to the

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Speaker 1: nineties with the acc being so deep, all the great

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Speaker 1: years of Biggies basketball. You could be the fourth or

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Speaker 1: fifth best team in the Big Twelve and win the

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Speaker 1: national championship. That would not blow me away at all,

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Speaker 1: because on a given night, the high end offensive talent,

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Speaker 1: and specifically what Texas Tech has faced this year I

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Speaker 1: think prepares them for a deeper run in March. We've

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Speaker 1: talked about this defense taking a step back. It was

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Speaker 1: a little bit surprising earlier in the year because you know,

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Speaker 1: this coaching staff they're calling card has been defense year

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Speaker 1: over year. They faced the number two power rated offensive

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Speaker 1: strength of schedule in the entire country. So I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, when you look at what they've done just

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Speaker 1: in recent history against BYU, against Baylor, they thumped both

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Speaker 1: of those teams. Those teams can heat you up and

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Speaker 1: score ninety points in the blink of an eye and

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Speaker 1: they were able to limit them for forty minutes. And

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Speaker 1: I agree JT. Toppen is playing like a Conference player

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Speaker 1: of the year. It's just that the Big twelve is

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Speaker 1: so deep. They're superstars all over the place. I think

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech is getting lost in the shuffle here. Thirty

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Speaker 1: five to one is a great number, and if they

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Speaker 1: continue this hot streak, that number is not going to

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Speaker 1: last long. I could see them entering the tournament closer

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Speaker 1: to a twenty to one play And a lot of

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Speaker 1: it is just the luck of the draw. As you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: you know, selection Sunday comes out if they are in

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Speaker 1: a nice situation in terms of getting to the second

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Speaker 1: weekend against a one seed that they want to play

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Speaker 1: out of the fore line, then all of a sudden

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Speaker 1: they look a lot more attractive. So it's a bit

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Speaker 1: random in terms of the luck in terms of your path,

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Speaker 1: but it's all about price. You know your play prices.

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Speaker 1: You don't play teams and thirty five to one, I

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Speaker 1: think people would be making a big mistake not adding

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Speaker 1: that to their portfolio. All right, In terms of my

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Speaker 1: rants or my high level look, I should say, duck,

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Speaker 1: we did it. You me. Christian we said it for

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Speaker 1: what a month, rank Saint Louis ranked Miami of Ohio.

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Speaker 1: We absolutely dunked on all the AP voters who had

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Speaker 1: their head up their behinds and we're ranking teams at

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Speaker 1: you know, power conferences with five or six losses already.

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Speaker 1: They finally took the bait. They went ahead. They said,

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Speaker 1: all right, we're just gonna put them in the back

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Speaker 1: of the rankings twenty four to twenty five. Give it

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Speaker 1: to the Billikins, give it to the RedHawks. We did

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Speaker 1: it so mission accomplished. Gonna fly the flag. And I'm

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Speaker 1: always nervous by the way of these teams finally breaking

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Speaker 1: through and then immediately losing. I played it was like

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Speaker 1: a three leg money line parlay last night between I

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Speaker 1: think it was Michigan State, Iowa State, and Slew. Slew.

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Speaker 1: You know, they gave me some pause against Dukane. They

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Speaker 1: ended up pulling it out of the fire, went in

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Speaker 1: by four, but a wins win. They continue on and

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Speaker 1: then Miami of Ohio. That was one of their last

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Speaker 1: major hurdles of the entire season. That scene at Kent,

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Speaker 1: by the way, the fact that it was on ESPN

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Speaker 1: Plus was absolutely criminal. That game should have been on

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Speaker 1: national television. It would have been an incredible showcase. The

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Speaker 1: place was packed for a midweek game. The atmosphere was electric.

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Speaker 1: A huge comeback by Kent, then Miamu Ohio in the

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Speaker 1: final ninety seconds getting into overtime, an incredible shot, you know,

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Speaker 1: bank shot to get into ot I'm just super impressed

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Speaker 1: with MAC basketball this year when you look at Kent,

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Speaker 1: when you even Buffalo for that matter, and then obviously

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Speaker 1: the top two teams in ACRON in Miami Ohio. It's

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Speaker 1: going to be a phenomenal conference tournament in Cleveland in March.

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Speaker 1: So really a mid major league to get very excited about.

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Speaker 1: But I'm just happy for us that we you know,

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Speaker 1: we're the G five guys for football, we're certainly the

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Speaker 1: low and mid major guys for basketball. We want to

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Speaker 1: see these guys get their flowers and people who can

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Speaker 1: plain like stick a sock in it, Like who cares

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Speaker 1: what you think? In terms of oh, these teams with

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Speaker 1: their schedule, Yeah, everyone knows Miami Ohio's schedule sucks. No

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Speaker 1: one's ducking that, no one's hiding. They need to win

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Speaker 1: basically every game to stay in the top twenty five.

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Speaker 1: And I think for their at large hopes, they probably

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Speaker 1: can drop one, maybe two, if it's the right kind

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Speaker 1: of loss, if they lose to Bowling Green, if maybe

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Speaker 1: they lose a game to Akron in the conference tournament,

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Speaker 1: I still think they'll get in. But I think that's

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Speaker 1: the right threshold. You should have to win that many

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Speaker 1: games when you have a schedule deep in the three

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Speaker 1: hundreds in terms of strength of schedule. And then for SLEW,

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Speaker 1: I think the A ten is just a better league

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Speaker 1: this year. What are your thoughts on the A tens

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Speaker 1: overall depth. I think there's a lot of teams that

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Speaker 1: can play. I think it would be a mistake by

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Speaker 1: the committee if we don't get two or three teams

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Speaker 1: out of this league. Obviously, a big part of it

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Speaker 1: is conference tournaments, variants and who makes it to the

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Speaker 1: championship game, who gets the automatic berth et cetera, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: But I think this is a really good league. There's

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Speaker 1: some very good guard play and kind of a variety

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Speaker 1: of basketball being played there in the Atlantic ten.

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Speaker 2: I think the Atlantic ten is very deep. You've got

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Speaker 2: teams that are not being talked about and probably shouldn't be.

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Speaker 2: Like George Washington, Davidson, Saint Joe's even VCU, but the

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Speaker 2: top three Dayton, and when Dayton gets healthy, we'll see

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Speaker 2: them go on a stretch where they put together the wins.

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Speaker 2: Saint Louis, George Mason, and I'm telling you right now

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Speaker 2: that last game of the season between the Patriots and

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Speaker 2: Billikins is going to be must watch television and will

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Speaker 2: probably be pretty critically important for both those teams to

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Speaker 2: decide who gets the one in the A ten. But

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Speaker 2: absolutely it's a two bid league. Absolutely, George Mason and

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Speaker 2: Saint Louis belong in the NCAA Tournament. I mean, we

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Speaker 2: don't need another seventeen and fifteen SEC team to take

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Speaker 2: the position of one of these two teams. I think

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Speaker 2: the A ten is deep. I think there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of good basketball. I think we'll see that play out

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Speaker 2: down the stretch. And it's just interesting how the schedule

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Speaker 2: concludes with those top two teams squaring off for the

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Speaker 2: only time this season in A ten play.

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Speaker 1: Kellen Thames, by the way, shout out to Jim Roots,

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Speaker 1: a part of our BBOC family. The three man we've

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Speaker 1: a six man having. I think he threw out was

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Speaker 1: it six or seven? Game MVPs this year. Let me

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Speaker 1: check this. Seven MVPs off the bench. You rarely see

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Speaker 1: that at the mid major level. You know, you generally

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Speaker 1: want to start your best players, but it gives them

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Speaker 1: the kind of consistency where they don't go through those

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Speaker 1: scoring roles. And having someone that impactful not only able

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Speaker 1: to score, but to impact the game on the glass

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Speaker 1: and defensively really makes the Billikin special. Anyone who hasn't

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Speaker 1: watched them play yet this year, you're missing out on

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Speaker 1: a special brand of basketball. All right, let's transition now

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Speaker 1: to any rants, anything you want to get off of

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Speaker 1: your chest. I know that sometimes a big part of

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Speaker 1: this is bad breaks. You've listed off how many games

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Speaker 1: that you've nailed the first half under and then just

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Speaker 1: scoring bonanza in the second half. Let's put that aside

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Speaker 1: for a moment. Anything else that you want to talk

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Speaker 1: about before we get into best bets. I remember this

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Speaker 1: is a safe space. You know what pisses me off

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Speaker 1: most of all. Okay, you're randing now, baby, I ran

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Speaker 1: why not? You've got to let it out somehow.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know that's just part of the variance too

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Speaker 2: of college basketball. It is the most volatile sport in America.

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Speaker 2: In my opinion, it's just sometimes the slate is filled

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Speaker 2: with those land mines and you can have a total

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Speaker 2: pegged perfectly for thirty five or thirty eight minutes, and

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Speaker 2: then you get some goofy stuff and it's all it

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Speaker 2: takes to ruin it. But I wonder is it time

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Speaker 2: for Vandy to hit the panic button? The losers are

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Speaker 2: three straight, They've got two remaining games yet against Kentucky

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Speaker 2: and Tennessee. They've got roadies against Maszoo Old miss Auburn,

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Speaker 2: and there's just been some recent struggles on the road

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Speaker 2: the last couple of outings. The shooting output has been

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Speaker 2: diminished on the road. And I still think this is

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Speaker 2: a good team, a dangerous team, but we've seen a

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Speaker 2: little bit of a slide from Vandy in my opinion.

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Speaker 2: Their next game on the road against Mississippi State on

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Speaker 2: Saturday will be a huge indicator for where the doors

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Speaker 2: are going the rest of this season. So I'm interested

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Speaker 2: to hear your take on what the heck is going

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Speaker 2: on with Fandy the last two weeks.

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Speaker 1: I think for a bit they were a bit overrated,

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Speaker 1: Not that I don't think that they're a quality team,

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Speaker 1: with incredible guard play and the coaching staff, everything you know.

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Speaker 1: In terms of him being a national story, I think

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Speaker 1: was deserved. But I think the market over corrected a

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Speaker 1: little bit. And now the question is how much does

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Speaker 1: this side in the opposite direction where people want to

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Speaker 1: fade them the recency bias of multiple losses. They're on

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Speaker 1: the road. I believe what at Mississippi State on Saturday

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Speaker 1: not the easiest place to win. The projections right now,

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Speaker 1: are you know the doors laying nine? I don't want

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Speaker 1: to lay nine with this team at this moment. When

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Speaker 1: you look at their shooting splits home and away, you

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Speaker 1: know they go down by about three percent in terms

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Speaker 1: of effective field goal percentage on the road. Do they

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Speaker 1: stop living and dying with the three? Can they get

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Speaker 1: a little bit more consistent? They killed themselves with a

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Speaker 1: slow start against Arkansas. That's a team athletically you know

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Speaker 1: that you don't want to dig yourself a deep hole early,

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Speaker 1: and they did just that. So early success I think

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Speaker 1: is a big part psychologically for them. But this is

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Speaker 1: a team that this isn't a buyer self for me,

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Speaker 1: This as a hold right now. I just need to

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Speaker 1: to see what it looks like to kind of right

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Speaker 1: the ship. But this is kind of the part of

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Speaker 1: gambling where you have to trust your numbers, you have

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Speaker 1: to trust your evaluation of a team overall. You know

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Speaker 1: that Christian was very high on this team early, he

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Speaker 1: rode that wave. You know, we're gonna go ahead and

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Speaker 1: track his bets in the Action Network app as well.

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Speaker 1: He's someone to follow. He's had his finger on the

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Speaker 1: pulse of Vandy this entire season. So I'll probably just

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Speaker 1: you know, in some cases, we have different people here

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Speaker 1: at the network who have specialties and different conferences, different teams.

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Speaker 1: If he's in on them, I'm going to ride with them.

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Speaker 1: If not, I'm just gonna do it wait and see situation.

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Speaker 1: Because if they beat Mississippi State by double digits, quality, win,

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Speaker 1: game control, all those things going in their favor, I

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Speaker 1: think it kind of takes the panic out of this situation.

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Speaker 1: But they're right on the verge of things slipping away.

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Speaker 1: And because the SEC is so deep and there's so

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Speaker 1: many elite teams, you know, one through four on the

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Speaker 1: lines right now, if you start to take you know,

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Speaker 1: four or five losses in a month, you can slide

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Speaker 1: down that seed line really really fast. So things could

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Speaker 1: get hairy for the doors. That's just my overall take

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Speaker 1: on it. I'm kind of, you know, piggybacking on this

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Speaker 1: in terms of my rants for this week, and it's

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Speaker 1: that x'es and o's coaches I think are a dying

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Speaker 1: breed in college basketball. I mean, you can look at

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Speaker 1: a conference like the Big Ten that's chock full of them,

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Speaker 1: whether it's Painter or Izzo McCollum now at Iowa, Guys

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Speaker 1: that can clearly, you know, whiteboard up something out of

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Speaker 1: timeouts half court basketball. They can be you know, coaches

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Speaker 1: that put together a game plan and then have counter

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Speaker 1: punches to anything that anyone does defensively. But there's so

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Speaker 1: many coaches in Division one basketball that just have a

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Speaker 1: style of play and they just want to dial that up.

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Speaker 1: Whether it's they want to run, they want to go tempo,

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Speaker 1: they want to fire up thirty triples, they want to

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Speaker 1: crash the glass, and if those things aren't going in

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Speaker 1: their favor, they kind of just throw up the shrug

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Speaker 1: emoji and they don't know exactly what to do. And

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Speaker 1: I think it's one of the reasons Christian brought us

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Speaker 1: up on the last show that it's so difficult to

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Speaker 1: win on the road because a lot of these teams

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Speaker 1: that threes aren't falling, they don't know how to manufacture

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Speaker 1: points in the half court if they you know, the

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Speaker 1: tempo kind of battle. There's certain games where you can

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Speaker 1: take it a slow team out of their comfort zone.

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Speaker 1: That's great. What if you're playing another team that's happy

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Speaker 1: to play quickly. These are the kind of things that

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Speaker 1: I think come up time and time again, and as

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Speaker 1: we inch closer to March, this is kind of the

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Speaker 1: way that I start to think about teams that I

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Speaker 1: want to back. Because, as we know NCAA tournament, it's

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Speaker 1: guard driven. It's also a tournament where a lot more

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Speaker 1: games are played in the half court. There's more reviews,

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Speaker 1: there's more stoppages. Can you be efficient out of timeouts?

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Speaker 1: Can you be efficient in the half court? And also

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Speaker 1: you add into the facts, you know, from a three

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Speaker 1: point perspective, We've seen it multiple times. The NCAA quite

356
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Speaker 1: literally rolls out different basketballs and instead of shooting forty

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Speaker 1: percent from three, you're shooting twenty two percent from three.

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Speaker 1: Can you survive a night like that? So when I

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Speaker 1: dig into some of the advanced stats and a shout

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Speaker 1: out to Tanner for pulling these numbers for me. I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at half court master executors from a head coaching

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Speaker 1: perspective and out of timeouts. When you look at low

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Speaker 1: and mid majors right now, Liberty, Miami, Ohio, Yale, Akron

364
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Speaker 1: all top ten in the half court. The big Boys Vandy, Purdue, Duke,

365
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Speaker 1: Michigan all incredible from a points per possession perspective, and

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Speaker 1: out of timeouts. Mid and low majors Miami Again, Belmont, Murray, Idaho,

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Speaker 1: and then big boys like Ohio State, Georgetown, Purdue and

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Speaker 1: the Zags. All of them really good out of timeouts.

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Speaker 1: So it's little surprised that Miami Ohio has been so

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Speaker 1: good on the road this year. Same with Duke, same

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Speaker 1: with Akron. They've been ATMs there. These are teams that

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Speaker 1: they don't necessarily need that home cooking, that familiarity with

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Speaker 1: your home court, the dimensions, you know, playing in larger arenas,

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Speaker 1: all those things that can impact perimeter shooting. They're fine

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Speaker 1: because they're running actual sets and they have coaches that

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Speaker 1: can basically squeeze out some offensive efficiency on nights when

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Speaker 1: things aren't always going their way. What are your thoughts

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Speaker 1: on this. I mean, generally speaking, it's already baked into

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Speaker 1: the lines in terms of teams playing on the road.

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Speaker 1: I'm actually going to be a team in your home

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Speaker 1: state that is going on the road on Thursday night.

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Speaker 1: A big part of it is you're getting these huge

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Speaker 1: discounts because odds makers are saying these teams are just

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Speaker 1: not going to shoot well on the road, and a

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Speaker 1: lot of them really don't have any other recourse. They're

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Speaker 1: playing through two or three offensive players and they're just

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Speaker 1: hoping for ten or fifteen threes. What are your thoughts on,

388
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Speaker 1: you know, kind of backing coaches as we get deeper

389
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Speaker 1: into the season as opposed to backing some of these

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Speaker 1: offensive stats.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think it's the for to play. Remember there

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Speaker 2: was a time in college basketball where coaches were adamant

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Speaker 2: about getting into the bonus early and getting players into

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Speaker 2: foul trouble, designing the offense, about getting a certain amount

395
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Speaker 2: of paint touches, and if we can do some of

396
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Speaker 2: these certain things and stress the opponent's bigs, we're going

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Speaker 2: to have a chance to win the game late. And

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Speaker 2: you saw some of that x's and o's coaching really

399
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Speaker 2: play out in game. Now you've got the positionless basketball,

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Speaker 2: free flowing. The rules have been legislated to create more

401
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Speaker 2: freedom of movement, and they want guys getting up and

402
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Speaker 2: down the floor, shooting threes early in the possession, or

403
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Speaker 2: getting to the rim. Right, it's a rim and three

404
00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:08,600
Speaker 2: type of game that we're watching now. I think you

405
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Speaker 2: still have a group of coaches that really dive into

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Speaker 2: the granular and really try to put their teams in

407
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Speaker 2: positions where on a night tonight basis, they can really

408
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Speaker 2: put some of that stress on their opponents. And I

409
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Speaker 2: think that is especially as we get into conference championship settings,

410
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Speaker 2: that will really see some fruit for those teams that

411
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Speaker 2: are able to scheme it up out of timeouts, great

412
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Speaker 2: inbound plays, out of half You get these sort of

413
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Speaker 2: situations where you can create momentum because basketball is such

414
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Speaker 2: a game of runs, and there are these little mini

415
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Speaker 2: runs that these teams go on, up and down, and

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Speaker 2: at the end of it, you got a two minute

417
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Speaker 2: stretch at the end where how many runs did we

418
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Speaker 2: go on, how many runs do we prevent? Where are

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Speaker 2: we at name or time and score, and how's our

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Speaker 2: team going to perform in the last two minutes? And

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Speaker 2: so I think that that sort of coaching is one

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Speaker 2: that is dying, but I like to hone in on that,

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Speaker 2: especially come conference championship season.

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Speaker 1: Now, before we get into our best bets, just a

425
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Speaker 1: quick reminder, if you want to get the best bets

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00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:12,119
Speaker 1: at the best prices, you have to sign up for

427
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:14,800
Speaker 1: action Pro. Action Pro users get real time alerts as

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00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:18,240
Speaker 1: soon as experts like Duck Stucky myself track picks in

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00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,440
Speaker 1: the app. You're also going to get real time money

430
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 1: percentages to see where the smart money is flowing, and

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00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:26,160
Speaker 1: access to NFL player prop projections from Sean Kerner AND's

432
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:29,679
Speaker 1: predictive analytics team. Soon, Doctor Nick, by the way, is

433
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:32,400
Speaker 1: going to start upping the volume of his college basketball

434
00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:34,000
Speaker 1: player props as well, so you're going to want to

435
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,639
Speaker 1: take advantage of that with Action Pro. Just go to

436
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,080
Speaker 1: actionework dot com slash pro to get started and use

437
00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:42,760
Speaker 1: promo code pod twenty for twenty dollars off in annual subscription.

438
00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:46,360
Speaker 1: That's promo code Pod twenty for twenty dollars off over

439
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:50,480
Speaker 1: at actionework dot com slash Pro. Now time for the

440
00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:53,399
Speaker 1: best bets. We're going to go through Thursday, Friday, Saturday Slate.

441
00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:55,720
Speaker 1: We got picks across the board. We're going to start

442
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,000
Speaker 1: on Thursday, and I'm going to jump ahead a little bit.

443
00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:00,040
Speaker 1: I know it's not your first pick on Thursday, but

444
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:03,000
Speaker 1: we talked off air about Sacramento State, and I also

445
00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:05,160
Speaker 1: talked about Idaho one of those teams that's really good

446
00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:08,520
Speaker 1: out of timeouts. They can be a team to rely upon,

447
00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:12,240
Speaker 1: to have exquisite, to use a phrase of yours coaching

448
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 1: in those situational moments, and be able to really hurt

449
00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:19,879
Speaker 1: people from points per possession situation out of timeouts. This

450
00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:23,440
Speaker 1: is a rare over for you. You like the Hornets and

451
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,040
Speaker 1: the Vandals to go over what one hundred and fifty eight?

452
00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 1: What's the threshold? How high would you go for the

453
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:29,200
Speaker 1: over here?

454
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's projected about one fifty seven, one fifty eight.

455
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:34,399
Speaker 2: I think we're good all the way to one sixty

456
00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:36,840
Speaker 2: one here. Sacramento State has really started to figure out

457
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,640
Speaker 2: their offense a little bit here, and back to back

458
00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:43,600
Speaker 2: wins over Northern Arizona and Northern Colorado.

459
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:44,640
Speaker 1: Starting to just.

460
00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:46,720
Speaker 2: Turn the corner a bit here with what Mike Bibbie

461
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 2: wants to do offensively. The defense is still atrocious and

462
00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:53,280
Speaker 2: they've been shredded routinely on the road. Should be a

463
00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:56,720
Speaker 2: spot here where Idaho can capitalize and score ninety at home.

464
00:20:56,760 --> 00:21:00,600
Speaker 2: They did that against North Dakota, Eastern Washington, Montana State,

465
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 2: and some school called Evergreen State. But you look at Colton, Mitchell, Jackson,

466
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,920
Speaker 2: Rasmus and Beko Johnson, they're all viable options for the Vandals,

467
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:11,879
Speaker 2: who they don't play with a ton of pace, but

468
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:14,880
Speaker 2: they will run when the opportunity presents itself, and they'll

469
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:17,680
Speaker 2: be able to run with Sacramento State here. Both these times,

470
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 2: both these teams get to the line a ton, and

471
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 2: both of these defenses foul often. I project that there

472
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:27,240
Speaker 2: could be up to seventy combined foul shots attempted in

473
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:29,880
Speaker 2: this one. And this is a game that I project

474
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:32,399
Speaker 2: closer to eighty possessions than what many of the others have.

475
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,200
Speaker 2: Seventy one seventy two. You're gonna want to play over

476
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:36,919
Speaker 2: here in this one. I think we'll see both these

477
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 2: teams in the eighties.

478
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:42,760
Speaker 1: Prophet Johnson for Sacramento State is an absolute menace and

479
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:45,640
Speaker 1: a rarity in that he can go for thirty points

480
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 1: without shooting ten three pointers. See somebody that, just as

481
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:50,359
Speaker 1: you pointed out, he gets a lot of steals, he

482
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 1: gets transition buckets, and he gets to the line. So

483
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 1: I like that look a lot. Now let's get back

484
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 1: to your bread and butter. It's a quick detour with

485
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 1: an over. Let's hit it under. Let's go to the belt.

486
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:01,679
Speaker 1: South Alabama and James Manson.

487
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's look at that one, and the projected total

488
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:06,680
Speaker 2: is one forty two and a half or thereabouts. I

489
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:08,239
Speaker 2: think we're good all the way to one thirty nine

490
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 2: and a half. South Alabama plays at the three hundred

491
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:15,480
Speaker 2: and twenty sixth fastest tempo in college basketball. That's slow.

492
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 2: They're two forty ninth and three point shooting, and they're

493
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,360
Speaker 2: really not equipped with elite scores. Even at the Sun

494
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:22,720
Speaker 2: Belt level. Chas Harris and Adam Olson are really the

495
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,960
Speaker 2: go to guys, but with Peyton Law out of the fold,

496
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 2: it's really thrown a little bit of a wrench into

497
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 2: their offensive game plan. Beyond that, despite some recent high

498
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 2: scoring games against Arkansas State and Georgia Southern, Richie Riley

499
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,680
Speaker 2: and the Jaguars bunch do not want to run. They

500
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:40,879
Speaker 2: want to play slow. I'm talking like fifty eight to

501
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 2: sixty two possessions type of slow. The defense has been

502
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 2: near the top of the conference in contesting shots, forcing turnovers,

503
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 2: and these guys are number one or number two, depending

504
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 2: on whose metrics you look at, best in the country

505
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 2: at defending without fouling. It's going to be tough for

506
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 2: JMU to really get a lot going offensively. In my opinion,

507
00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 2: the Duke's offense has been so servisable, but they were

508
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:04,920
Speaker 2: slowed against Appy State Old Dominion and they played Marshall

509
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:08,080
Speaker 2: to a game that finished sixty two total possessions. You

510
00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 2: look at shooting threes, penetrating the lane, it's all going

511
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 2: to be much more difficult against South Alabama. This is,

512
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 2: in my opinion, a dead under game.

513
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:19,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, when you look at what South Alabama can do defensively,

514
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,200
Speaker 1: and I'm just you know, pulling up their defensive stats,

515
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 1: there's a team that can pressure you into some turnovers

516
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 1: and sometimes that can be a double edged sword in

517
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,680
Speaker 1: terms of runouts and get some easy looks. But what's

518
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:33,400
Speaker 1: interesting is James Madison in terms of you know, passes

519
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 1: that go out of bounds not leading to runouts, they're

520
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 1: outside of the top two fifty in the entire country.

521
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of situations where it's a dead ball.

522
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:44,200
Speaker 1: You know, it's a bad pass, it's an offensive foul

523
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 1: going the other clock, violation, jocolock value. These are really

524
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 1: good opportunities to aid in and under and just some

525
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,239
Speaker 1: stats that you should consider over there at Kenpom. All Right,

526
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,679
Speaker 1: I'm going to focus in on a Thursday play. I

527
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 1: mentioned it in your home state at least a home

528
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 1: state team. They're traveling you and see Wilmington that they're

529
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 1: going to be a slight dog at William and Mary.

530
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,880
Speaker 1: And there's a huge tempo discrepancy. The Seahawks three hundred

531
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 1: and fourteenth in the country in terms of their preferred tempo,

532
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:13,679
Speaker 1: the tribe fifth in the entire nation. And you know

533
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 1: what's interesting when we talk a lot about these mid

534
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 1: and low major darlings, you know, in a lot of

535
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 1: cases you start to list off all the things they

536
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,479
Speaker 1: do incredibly Well, they're top twenty in this metric, you know,

537
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 1: they're top fifty in that. Well, you know, Wilmington maybe

538
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 1: seventeen and two. But if you just peruse their resume

539
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 1: really quickly, you're gonna come away unimpressed. Below average offensive numbers.

540
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 1: They never turn you over, So like, what exactly is

541
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 1: there to get excited about. Here's the thing to get

542
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:42,679
Speaker 1: excited about when it comes to UNCW. They're tremendous in

543
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 1: the half court. Defensively, they rarely turn it over so

544
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 1: you can't run on them, and they're one of the

545
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 1: very best rebounding teams in mid major basketball. Patrick Westler

546
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 1: is an anchor in that middle. But this team is

547
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 1: big everywhere. They're eighth in height in all of Division One.

548
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 1: It's so rare for a mid major to have this

549
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 1: kind of size and be able to use it deficients efficiently.

550
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 1: There's not just a bunch of you know, duds and

551
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:07,639
Speaker 1: zombies in the front court for them. These guys are active,

552
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 1: They box out, they make shots really difficult inside of

553
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 1: the arc, and I think that's why it's difficult to

554
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,440
Speaker 1: beat them, because they're playing that plotting style and even

555
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 1: though they have shooting, you know, limitations, I think all

556
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:20,640
Speaker 1: that means is that I don't want to play them

557
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:22,399
Speaker 1: as a favorite. I want to play them as a dog,

558
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 1: and that's been the wise choice throughout the season. They're

559
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 1: seventeen and two straight up, as I mentioned, yet they

560
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:30,439
Speaker 1: are one eight and two against the spread in their

561
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 1: last eleven games, which is nuts. But in those eleven games,

562
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 1: they've been favored in all of them. So now we

563
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:38,719
Speaker 1: get to flip it around. They get to catch points.

564
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:40,439
Speaker 1: Even if this goes off at a pick them. I

565
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 1: like them because the other part of it is I'm

566
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 1: looking for apples to apples. You know, is anyone else

567
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,280
Speaker 1: this quick in the CIA? And they just played an

568
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:51,160
Speaker 1: up tempo team in Campbell. They erased a four point

569
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,720
Speaker 1: halftime deficit, They score forty five points in the second half,

570
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 1: really rev up their offensive efficiency. Win that game by three.

571
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 1: Greedy Williams, you know, is starting to come on. Need

572
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 1: probably fifteen points from him here to feel comfortable about

573
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 1: a win. Last piece, Bill and Mary one of the

574
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 1: most consistent mid majors. I know what I'm getting with them,

575
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 1: and what I'm getting is a team that has to

576
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,199
Speaker 1: play fast to win. Sometimes it's as simple when you

577
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:18,160
Speaker 1: have this huge discrepancy in tempo. If UNC Wilmington Cots

578
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 1: soil this thing down, I think William and Mary is

579
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 1: gonna really struggle to get going offensively because they have

580
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 1: two wins this entire season where they've scored fewer than

581
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:29,160
Speaker 1: eighty points, and those wins came against Stonybrook and UTEP

582
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 1: who both stink. So I'm going to go with the

583
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 1: Seahawks here at plus money. I'm going to take plus

584
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 1: the point and a half also on the money line.

585
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 1: Either way, I think that's a good play. Let's now

586
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 1: switch over to Friday, another game even further down the board,

587
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:47,160
Speaker 1: gonna look at Wagner at Lemoyne, always exciting to give

588
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,879
Speaker 1: out a first team. Ever here on the BBOC show

589
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:52,919
Speaker 1: another Jesuit edition to D one basketball where all the

590
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 1: way up to sixteen teams that can be eligible for

591
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 1: March MADISONO Lamoy's gonna have to wait another year. In transition,

592
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 1: I still think in early season MTE needs to exist

593
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,360
Speaker 1: between all the Jesuit schools because I think it would

594
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 1: be very fun. You got heavyweights like you know, the Zags,

595
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 1: you got SLEW, Santa Clair's no joke, Seattle now joining

596
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 1: the WCC. You know they have a win already this

597
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 1: season over Mark Fu's team. So I think in early

598
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,880
Speaker 1: season MTE, with all the Jesuit schools, there's sixteen. It's

599
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:20,400
Speaker 1: perfect for a bracket. I think it would be fun.

600
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,439
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk a little bit about Lemoyne. If

601
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 1: you don't know them. Another college in Syracuse, New York.

602
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 1: They're nicknamed the Dolphins. I know when you're thinking Upstate

603
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 1: New York, you're of course thinking of Dolphins. They play

604
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,440
Speaker 1: small ball, They rely heavily on Shiloh Jackson. They build

605
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 1: everything around them, both offensively and particularly defensively, does all

606
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 1: the work on the glass. He's averaging fourteen and eight

607
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 1: two point three stocks per game, and defensively. What's interesting

608
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 1: year over year. Nate Champion in the offseason said, we

609
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 1: just got shredded defensively last year, So what can we

610
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 1: do about it. We're gonna pack it in. If you

611
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,159
Speaker 1: want to beat us on the perimeter, you can. We

612
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:54,400
Speaker 1: are just not giving up easy looks inside of ten feet,

613
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 1: and so far that's working. They have a top twenty

614
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:59,359
Speaker 1: two point percentage defense, but they're giving up lots of

615
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 1: open threes. So teams that are comfortable shooting at volume

616
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 1: from three point range, they can go ahead and make them.

617
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 1: Opponents of Lamoy this year have made nine triples per

618
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 1: game on thirty eight percent shooting this deep in the season.

619
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,200
Speaker 1: That's not just luck. It's the fact that they're not rotating.

620
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:15,119
Speaker 1: They're not getting out to shooters They're not defending a

621
00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 1: three point arc all that well, So if they're playing

622
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 1: a team that wants to shoot a lot of them,

623
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 1: I would be concerned. That is not Wagner. They are

624
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 1: really good from deep from a percentage perspective, but they

625
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:26,840
Speaker 1: don't like to play that way. They barely take twenty

626
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 1: threes per game, which is very low, and they prefer

627
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:31,880
Speaker 1: to play through Nick Jones, their guard, and they want

628
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 1: him to attack the rim. I think that plays right

629
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,160
Speaker 1: into the Dolphin's hands. This one and two more things

630
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 1: to consider from Evan Mia. Lemoyne plays much better when

631
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,920
Speaker 1: they're playing against crappy teams. Whenever they have to play up,

632
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 1: that's a struggle for them. When they're playing down among

633
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 1: low and mid major teams. They're tenth in the country

634
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 1: in that ranking. They're also better against slower teams, and

635
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 1: Wagner sometimes can play at a full on crawl. So

636
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 1: I'd lay up to eight here. I'm hoping to get

637
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 1: six and a half from their projections. Any thoughts of

638
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 1: the NEC in general. I know there are two teams

639
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 1: that are not going to come be dancing later this year.

640
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 1: Lemoyne because of eligibility and also Wagner's is not that good.

641
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 1: But any thoughts here on this, anyc matchup a.

642
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 2: Little bit of a pace for I think Lemoyne will

643
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 2: be able to have an advantage over Wagner's defense is

644
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 2: just atrocious. They can't defend without fouling, they can't guard

645
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 2: the three point line. They can't really do much of

646
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 2: anything to really stop their opponent. And I think it's

647
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 2: interesting the schematics as well. Right, you're going to pack

648
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 2: it in on defense, You're going to force teams to

649
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 2: shoot over the top, and Wagner has a good three

650
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 2: point shooting percentage at thirty nine percent over the course

651
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 2: of the season. They don't shoot a lot of threes.

652
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 2: That's really not their game, and I think if they

653
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 2: get into a situation where they have to shoot thirty threes,

654
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 2: you're going to see that percentage go down because it's

655
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 2: just really not their game. And you look at prior

656
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 2: results for lemoy And against teams like Niagara, Lafayette, Monmouth, Binghamton,

657
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 2: teams that are real comparable with skill level to Wagner,

658
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 2: I think this is probably one of those You're going

659
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 2: to look at this point spread and say, my gosh,

660
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 2: why are they laying six and a half. So but

661
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 2: I think it's the right play here and it should

662
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 2: be a fun game for those that have money on

663
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 2: the line here. But I would only look LeMoyne's way

664
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 2: in this one. I really like the CAA play that

665
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:14,040
Speaker 2: you had with Wilmington too. I think when you look

666
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 2: at UNC Wilmington in their size and the players that

667
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 2: they went out and got in the portal and took

668
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 2: some of the pieces away from fellow CIA members. They

669
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 2: took a guy from Monmouth, they took a guy from Towson.

670
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 2: But they can just make you struggle so badly on

671
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 2: the offensive end. And William and Mary plays at a

672
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,239
Speaker 2: blazing fast tempo. But you know what else they do.

673
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 2: They turn the ball over, They're sloppy, they get a

674
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,000
Speaker 2: lot of shots blocked. At times, William and Mary can

675
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 2: play out of control. I think it's a good look

676
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 2: on the Seahawks.

677
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 1: There one final piece on the Moyne. By the way,

678
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 1: if you just want to get excited by one player,

679
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 1: you know, name drop when you're out of the bar.

680
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 1: Tennessee Rainwater has been a player who's all of a sudden,

681
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 1: He's been a microwave for Lemoyne. Five of the last

682
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 1: seven games he's gone for double digits. I think he's

683
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:00,360
Speaker 1: somebody who could be the difference maker in this one.

684
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 1: All right, let's go back to your plays. Turn to

685
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 1: Friday night mercy Hurst versus New Haven. I promise listeners

686
00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 1: do not turn off the podcast. I have a huge

687
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 1: national game coming up next, but this one. Duck's really

688
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 1: excited to get into it because this is stinky, this

689
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 1: is ugly, and this is an under talk me through it, and.

690
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 2: It's going to be a one pm Eastern tip, so

691
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 2: you'll get a little afternoon basketball on Friday. Mercyhurst and

692
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 2: New Haven. It is the most disgusting game on the slate.

693
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 2: You talk about two teams that are absolute slow paced.

694
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 2: They do not seek transition. It's going to be one

695
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 2: hundred percent half court set up with sloppy execution, turnovers,

696
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 2: poor play. This is the game that you're gonna want

697
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 2: to look at. Mercy Hurst is three hundred and sixty

698
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 2: fifth nationally in adjusted offensive tempo, Mike, how many teams

699
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 2: are there in college basketball?

700
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 1: Three hundred and sixty five? Is that right?

701
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 2: Three sixty five dead last? New Haven not far behind

702
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 2: three fifty eighth. Then operating tempo, slow, slow, slow offensive

703
00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 2: efficiency if you want to look at that, three hundred

704
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 2: and thirty six offensively. As far as offensive efficiency for

705
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 2: mercy Hurst, three point fifty third for new Haven. New

706
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 2: Haven is just not equipped at this level yet with

707
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 2: the roster. They're a transition team that moved up. They're

708
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 2: not a Division one roster. They don't have shooters, they

709
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 2: don't have size in the post. They just don't have

710
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 2: a lot of effective offensive play here. Neither one of

711
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 2: these teams really does much well offensively. You're not going

712
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 2: to see either one of these groups get to the line.

713
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 2: They don't make free throws. Even when they do get

714
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 2: to the line. It's bottom three hundred level in slash shooting,

715
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 2: two point three point file shooting for both. There's not

716
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 2: going to be a lot to get excited about here,

717
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 2: if I'm being honest with you. But with the projections

718
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 2: having this one at one twenty three and a half

719
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 2: or so, this is a game that could see somewhere

720
00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 2: in the realm of fifty five to fifty eight total

721
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 2: possessions and it could be one of those twenty one

722
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 2: to nineteen games. At the half. It's gonna be gross.

723
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 2: I would expect the winning team to likely not surpass

724
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 2: six points. So anything over one twenty here and I'm

725
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 2: going in on the under, all.

726
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 1: Right, That under is the shot. Here comes the chaser. Saturday,

727
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 1: really the best game on the entire slate, Houston traveling

728
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 1: to Lubbick to take on the Red Raiders. Red Raiders

729
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 1: should be a short favorite. Plus one one and a

730
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 1: half money line's also good. If you can get you know,

731
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 1: plus money plus one oh five, that would be phenomenal. Listen,

732
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 1: the Red Raiders have won eight of nine, including a

733
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,719
Speaker 1: neutral site win over Duke. They thumped BYU and Baylor.

734
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 1: Their lone loss, of course, in that stretch, was a

735
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 1: four point defeat to this very same Houston team at

736
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 1: you know, their home place was the Fertida Center. They

737
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 1: led with three thirty to go. Flemings just took over.

738
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 1: He went ballistic at the end of that game. They

739
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 1: end up letting it slip away. I think these two

740
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,640
Speaker 1: teams are very close, and I respect the Red Raiders

741
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 1: on their home floor under McCastle, and they're forty and

742
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:51,239
Speaker 1: five straight up at the United Supermarkets Arena. They need

743
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 1: a new nickname for that one. Top fifteen in offensive efficiency,

744
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 1: top thirty in defensive efficiency. You know, this is about

745
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 1: the time of the year when people start tweeting out.

746
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 1: You know, the last twenty five national champions have been

747
00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 1: in this ranking window that puts them in the conversation.

748
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 1: Have balance on both ends of the floor. They also

749
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 1: have a pro player, at least one in JT. Toppin.

750
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 1: He has played incredibly well. He has that confidence that

751
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 1: the offense can run through him. He can get them

752
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 1: really tough Buggets last three games, twenty seven points per game,

753
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 1: ten rebounds, three and a half stocks on sixty one

754
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 1: percent shooting. And when he went up against this Houston defense,

755
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 1: who they can make a lot of people look foolish.

756
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 1: They can get people off of their spots taking bad

757
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 1: shots on a nightly basis, he went for eighteen to

758
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 1: eleven with five blocks on nine for fourteen shooting from

759
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:35,399
Speaker 1: the floor. That kind of efficiency is why they built

760
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 1: out a lead deep in the second half against this

761
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 1: Cougar team. Anytime, though you're playing Houston, it really comes

762
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 1: down to can you limit turnovers. Sampson's teams are fourth

763
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 1: and turnover percentage in terms of forcing teams to give

764
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 1: away the basketball more than twenty percent of opponent possessions

765
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 1: and in turnovers, which is just a bananas statistic, particularly

766
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:54,839
Speaker 1: when you consider the schedule that they played this year.

767
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:58,240
Speaker 1: Tech isn't perfect with their forty second in rock protection.

768
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 1: So I think at the end of the day, if

769
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,440
Speaker 1: this goes off as a pick them, or certainly if

770
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:04,839
Speaker 1: you get any points, this is the right side here.

771
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 1: I think Houston is a tremendous team. I already got

772
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 1: my seventeen to one for them to win the Natty.

773
00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 1: But this Texas Tech team is starting to ascend. They're

774
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 1: starting to assert their dominance on the defensive end. As

775
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 1: we talked about at the top, they had to put

776
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 1: together a few pieces. I think they traded off some

777
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:23,479
Speaker 1: offensive efficiency for a little bit of a step half

778
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 1: step backwards on the defensive end. But a big part

779
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 1: of that was they've just been playing really good offensive

780
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 1: teams for three straight months. And now when you look

781
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 1: at the masterclass they put on tape against Byu, who

782
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 1: can make anyone look foolish on the offensive ends, they

783
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:40,840
Speaker 1: can score ninety points against just about anybody. They struggled

784
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 1: to get into the mid seventies, and Baylor was absolutely

785
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 1: out of their elements against Texas Tech. So in terms

786
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 1: of a team playing their best basketball at this moment,

787
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 1: the Big twelve is an absolute grind. You know, Houston's

788
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 1: not going to go one or two losses throughout this

789
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 1: entire conference run. They're going to drop some games. This

790
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 1: is a tough place to go and win. What are

791
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 1: your thoughts on this matchup? I think this could be

792
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 1: kind of an Elite eight preview. That's a level play

793
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:06,720
Speaker 1: we're gonna see between these two teams on Saturday.

794
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's game of the day. We saw

795
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 2: the first meeting a four point contest, and I would

796
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:14,240
Speaker 2: expect this one to be absolutely super tight. You're gonna

797
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 2: have grinded out defensive possessions, You're gonna have some turnovers,

798
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 2: You're gonna have physical play in the paint, and it's

799
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:26,880
Speaker 2: gonna be must watch television. I absolutely wouldn't miss it.

800
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 2: And it's gonna be a real fun I think it'll

801
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 2: have that sort of Elite eight sort of magnitude or

802
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 2: gravitas to the game. And I think that this is

803
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:39,359
Speaker 2: going to be a real good indicator for Texas Tech

804
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 2: on what this team is truly capable of. If they

805
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,200
Speaker 2: can avenge the loss that they had a couple of

806
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 2: weeks back and really keep this momentum going. I mean,

807
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:51,640
Speaker 2: that'll carry them through the rest of the season. Houston,

808
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:54,080
Speaker 2: they don't have to go undefeated in Big Twelve play.

809
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:54,920
Speaker 1: If they lose a.

810
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 2: Game or two and they finish the year with twenty

811
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 2: nine wins and three losses, I mean, that's gonna be

812
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:05,279
Speaker 2: an elite level campaign. You look at some of the

813
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 2: teams though that Houston has played in recent and it

814
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 2: has not been the exquisite upper echelon Big Twelve. This

815
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 2: is gonna be a real test on the road. I

816
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 2: think Texas Tech is absolutely gonna bring their a game here.

817
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 2: It's gonna be fun television to watch.

818
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 1: A little quick pop quiz for you in the Big

819
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:29,440
Speaker 1: Twelve this year, which team has the most kill shot

820
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:30,880
Speaker 1: ten oh runs go in their favor?

821
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 2: Well, I would, I would. I would guess it's Houston,

822
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:39,440
Speaker 2: and those runs generally start defensively, But I mean maybe Arizona.

823
00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:42,799
Speaker 1: Arizona is number three, Houston is number one. And I

824
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:45,799
Speaker 1: bring that up because usually when you think about kill shot,

825
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 1: it's like all of a sudden, four possessions, bucketbucket, bucket, fucket,

826
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:51,080
Speaker 1: and then you know all of a sudden, you're behind

827
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 1: the eight ball. To your point, though, Houston's more like

828
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 1: we're gonna put you in the deep freezer for four

829
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:58,759
Speaker 1: minutes and you know, have some empty possessions of our own,

830
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:00,919
Speaker 1: but we're gonna get to that ten ot run. I

831
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 1: think in a game like this, there's also an opportunity,

832
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 1: because it's on Texas Texom floor, if they have a

833
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 1: bit of an early loll and there's a live betting

834
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 1: opportunity to catch them plus four and a half five

835
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 1: and a half. You gotta pounce on it because Houston,

836
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:17,400
Speaker 1: as you brought up, there only bugaboo when Kingston Flemings

837
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 1: is not being a flame thrower from deep and making

838
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 1: contested shots. They can go through long stretches. And I

839
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,439
Speaker 1: think it's the only part of their makeup right now

840
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:29,440
Speaker 1: offensively that concerns me, just the tiniest bit of the

841
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 1: difference between them being an Elite eight team and being

842
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 1: a national champion. It's they have the pieces, you know,

843
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 1: when you look at the talent, you zan when you

844
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 1: look at Sharp Flemings like it should be a team

845
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 1: offensively that's not quite at you know, the Arizona or

846
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 1: Byu kind of level, but they shouldn't be that far

847
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 1: away because from a personnel standpoint, they shouldn't necessarily have

848
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 1: those issues. I think there's a little bit of who's

849
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 1: the alpha, who's controlling the situation. The deeper again the season,

850
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,439
Speaker 1: the more it's clear that it's Flemings. But that being said,

851
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:00,319
Speaker 1: I still think you can count on Houston and kind

852
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:02,359
Speaker 1: of being a little bit discombobulated for two or three

853
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:04,919
Speaker 1: minute stretches. So if you do get an opportunity, let's

854
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 1: say they open up this game ten two something like that,

855
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 1: you get a really nice number, get some nice points.

856
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 1: This to me screams a one possession game one way

857
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 1: or the other. So if you can get above one

858
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:18,680
Speaker 1: possession on a live number, I'm interested in doing that.

859
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 1: And just from a pure watching standpoint, I can't wait

860
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 1: to sit down and watch this game end to end

861
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 1: because their first one was an absolute classic. Any other

862
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:27,880
Speaker 1: thoughts on this game and kind of the overall ceilings

863
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 1: for these two.

864
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 2: Teams, Yeah, I think from a live betting perspective, Houston

865
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:35,279
Speaker 2: is so great. And I wrote this up when I

866
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 2: had written up a guide for Action Network, and it

867
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:42,200
Speaker 2: broke down about five different games in a row where

868
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:45,480
Speaker 2: Houston forced their opponents into the deep end and just

869
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:49,240
Speaker 2: would not let them out for eight, ten, twelve minute

870
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 2: stretches where they're holding these opponents to six or eight

871
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:56,800
Speaker 2: points during that stretch. Just incredible defensive performance. The projected

872
00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,279
Speaker 2: total on this one is one forty three, and it

873
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 2: wouldn't surprise me at all to see Houston. Maybe they

874
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 2: come out hot and they start ten two, you force

875
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 2: a quick time out and then Texas tech rallies back

876
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 2: and you look up and there's only been five or

877
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 2: six minutes played and it's fourteen to thirteen, And I'm

878
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:17,279
Speaker 2: going to jump in live. If I get a live

879
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 2: total of one p fifty or higher, I'm going to

880
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 2: dive in on the under there. Because the stretch is

881
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:23,879
Speaker 2: coming for both. McCaslin is going to have these guys

882
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:27,040
Speaker 2: ready to go defensively. Both these teams are good at

883
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 2: forcing long stretches where the opponent just struggles, and Houston,

884
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:36,480
Speaker 2: they're an absolute top tier team. They have struggled and

885
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:38,480
Speaker 2: it's been a problem. It hasn't been a problem in

886
00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:43,280
Speaker 2: the win lost column because these situations have manifested themselves

887
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 2: while they've played Jackson State, New Orleans, Middle Tennessee. You know, YadA, YadA, YadA.

888
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:52,959
Speaker 2: But Houston has gone through numerous situations where they can't

889
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 2: make open jumpers. They miss wide open and these are

890
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:59,440
Speaker 2: wide open looks, and that's what Houston needs to start

891
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 2: to do because they're finding in their offensive system that

892
00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 2: their guards are penetrating into the lane and they're kicking

893
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:08,800
Speaker 2: it out to the corner. Guys need to start making

894
00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 2: shots and Houston will be very, very dangerous. And I'll

895
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 2: be glad that I have that seventeen to one Natty

896
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:16,400
Speaker 2: ticket Texas Tech. I think if they can put it

897
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 2: all together and they can really keep the momentum going

898
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:21,839
Speaker 2: and play consistent on both ends of the floor. They've

899
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 2: got playmakers that can create offensively, They've got guys that

900
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 2: have an impact offensively. I think it wouldn't surprise me

901
00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:30,359
Speaker 2: at all of these two teams end up playing each other,

902
00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:35,800
Speaker 2: certainly in the Big twelve Championship tournament, but also in March.

903
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 2: I think these two teams can really be in the

904
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:40,680
Speaker 2: mix to make a deep postseason run. It wouldn't surprise

905
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 2: me if either one of these teams are one of

906
00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 2: the last aid standing.

907
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:45,160
Speaker 1: Now before we get out of here, we're going to

908
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:47,759
Speaker 1: put together our two favorite plays in a little two

909
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,400
Speaker 1: light parlay. I'm gonna go with Texas Tech. I'm going

910
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 1: to say the money line get us closer to let's

911
00:41:53,200 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 1: call it plus two seventy. What is going to be

912
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:56,880
Speaker 1: your edition here from your slate?

913
00:41:57,920 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I just I really like South Hall

914
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 2: Obama unders, and I just like the way that Ritchie

915
00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 2: Riley has this team playing defensively. They do not get

916
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:09,799
Speaker 2: sped up, they don't make a lot of mistakes defensively,

917
00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:12,439
Speaker 2: and they don't put their opponents in situations where it's

918
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:14,759
Speaker 2: going to be easy to operate offensively. And I don't

919
00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 2: think James Madison is going to be able to exploit that.

920
00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 2: So let's go South Alabama James Madison under projected totals

921
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:24,360
Speaker 2: one forty two and a half, but anything one thirty

922
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 2: nine and a half or higher, we're going to dive

923
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 2: in on the under my favorite play of the ones

924
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 2: we've talked about that.

925
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 1: I'll do it for today's episode of The Big Bets

926
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:33,960
Speaker 1: on Campus Podcasts. Special shout out to my man Detlift

927
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 1: shrip Aka Duck. You know, we really need those five

928
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 1: star reviews. I'm updating the you know, Apple Reviews, we're

929
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,280
Speaker 1: trying to give away a future ticket here. It could

930
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:46,719
Speaker 1: be a Texas Tech, it could be a Houston. Throw

931
00:42:46,760 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 1: us a five star rating interview, and we're going to

932
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:51,760
Speaker 1: give out a free parlay or parlay or future ticket,

933
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 1: either one your choice. Just go ahead and give us

934
00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:56,520
Speaker 1: a little bit of love there in the ratings community.

935
00:42:56,800 --> 00:42:59,160
Speaker 1: We've also got some big news. BBOC is bringing back

936
00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 1: our weekend previous series that's going to be a Stucky

937
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:04,160
Speaker 1: hosting Greg Wadell and Jim Roots. So those are going

938
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:06,759
Speaker 1: to hit your podcast feed on Friday mornings with a

939
00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:09,880
Speaker 1: closer look at the full Saturday slate. We're also going

940
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:12,480
Speaker 1: to have our live Saturday show coming back to YouTube

941
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 1: in the coming weeks, so we're gonna have you covered

942
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:17,959
Speaker 1: all week long with College Hoops episodes three episodes looking

943
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 1: at the early, mid and weekend slates. As always, best

944
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 1: of luck with all your bets. Another special thanks to

945
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 1: my man Duck, and we'll catch you next time here

946
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:27,760
Speaker 1: at the Big Bets on Campus podcast.

947
00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:49,759
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

948
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, Help is

949
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:55,760
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler