1 00:00:12,480 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Thursday morning 2 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 1: edition of the Deal Juice Podcast. My name is Matt Parolt. 3 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 1: You guys can follow me on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 1: Betting Pros on Twitter at Betting Pros. Always YouTube for 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: the video Betting Pros YouTube channel, and we're here wherever 6 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:28,440 Speaker 1: you get your audio podcasts. With the offer from BETMGM, 7 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 1: as always our sponsor for the Daily Juice ten dollars 8 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 1: to win one hundred and fifty dollars if you are 9 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 1: a new user, new account you sign up for it, 10 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 1: use that promo Codejuice one fifty. If you forget it. 11 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 1: It's always above me on YouTube here at BETMGM or 12 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 1: betmgm dot com. All right, so we head to Thursday. 13 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 1: Oh in one night last night that was a bad bet, 14 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: and well I did not know that pretty much the 15 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:51,760 Speaker 1: whole starting five was going to be out for Houston. 16 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: But this is kind of the way we're going to 17 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: have to roll with the news. Now. It wasn't COVID related, 18 00:00:57,600 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 1: but it's just the way things are going this week 19 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 1: and the end, who's in, who's out. It's very very difficult. 20 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 1: So I'm just sticking with football today. Right, and I 21 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:08,959 Speaker 1: had a couple of plays that were given to me 22 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 1: that I got into yesterday. I'm thinking if the Ducks, 23 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 1: if the Anaheim Ducks hold on here on the puck line, 24 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:16,960 Speaker 1: it's three to one going into the third period, I'll 25 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 1: actually have an okay day. But I had the Lakers 26 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 1: minus two and I had the money of the puck line. 27 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:26,400 Speaker 1: My new co host gave me that to take Anaheim 28 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:28,480 Speaker 1: against the Kraken on the puck line, so I did. 29 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 1: So we'll see what happens with that. I don't know 30 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:31,479 Speaker 1: if that's going to come in or not, but we'll 31 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:33,960 Speaker 1: we'll see how that goes. But if that happens, then 32 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 1: I will wind up up for the day personally, but 33 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:38,679 Speaker 1: not up. I gave those plays out in the Discord 34 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 1: channel before the games went off with Lakers minus two 35 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: and the Anaheim Ducks the puck line, but officially down 36 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,039 Speaker 1: the half of unit on the Houston Rockets who did 37 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 1: not cover and got crushed by the Cavaliers thirteen consecutive covers. 38 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: Now for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Hello, they are a wagon 39 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 1: crushing people. So down to half unit here on a 40 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 1: Wednesday in into a Thursday morning. Okay, I've already given 41 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 1: you one unit on this game, Chiefs and the Chargers 42 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football. I'm on Chargers money line and I'm 43 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: on Chargers plus three. The number has not moved. It's 44 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 1: kind of interesting, right, we haven't seen any movement. Now 45 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 1: we know the most expensive move in the book is 46 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:18,640 Speaker 1: either three to two and a half or three to 47 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 1: three and a half, so not that big of a surprize. 48 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 1: The total has gone from fifty one up to fifty 49 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:25,359 Speaker 1: two and a half. I agree. I think there's going 50 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 1: to be scoring in this game. I think I do 51 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:29,360 Speaker 1: think it's gonna be an up tempo football game going 52 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 1: back and forth. And I'm just going to fade the 53 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 1: general philosophy that the Chiefs are going to win this game. 54 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,079 Speaker 1: I'm just I think the majority of people are taking 55 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 1: the Chiefs laying the three points. I know home dogs 56 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 1: have not fared very well this year. I know home 57 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 1: dogs in primetime have not fared all that well this year. 58 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:49,799 Speaker 1: I just think much like on Monday Night, we had 59 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 1: a home dog I'm sorry, home favorite Monday Night, but 60 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:53,919 Speaker 1: we had a team in the Rams with their backs 61 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:56,520 Speaker 1: against the wall who had to win. I think the 62 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 1: same thing that's going on here with the Chargers, and 63 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: I think Justin Herbert's gonna have a really big night. 64 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 1: So I like Herbert a lot. I like this offense. 65 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:05,239 Speaker 1: Now here are the questions going into this game that 66 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:07,079 Speaker 1: definitely have to be paid attention to, and you got 67 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 1: to look at who's going to play and who may not. 68 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 1: Austin Eckler is questionable with an ankle, Derwin James is 69 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 1: questionable with a hamstring. Santa Samuel Junior is questionable with 70 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 1: a concussion. Now those three are all game time decisions. 71 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 1: Now we know that Willy Gay is not going to 72 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:25,240 Speaker 1: play in this game, the star cornerback or the cornerback 73 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 1: for the Chiefs, due to the death of his brother. 74 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:32,640 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Excuse me. Yeah no, that Willy 75 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 1: Gave is gonna be out because of COVID. Sorry, Willie 76 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 1: Gay's out for COVID. Chris Jones is out for COVID, 77 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 1: and it looks like Andrew Wiley, the offensive guard, is 78 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 1: going to be He's questionable with a knee, but he 79 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 1: he is questionable. And le Jerious Snead the cornerback is out. 80 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 1: That's who's out for the brother death. The brother excuse me, 81 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 1: so snead out for the death of his brother. So 82 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 1: there are some notable absences here for both teams going 83 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 1: into this game. But I'm going to stay away from 84 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 1: the Austin Eckler props just because and in case he's 85 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 1: not full strength or not a go here, it would 86 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 1: be a pretty big blow. I think the guy plays, Okay, 87 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 1: he's a workout Maven, He's a physical specimen. I'd be 88 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 1: very surprised if Austin Eckler does not play in this 89 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 1: really really big football game. But Derwin James is a 90 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:17,160 Speaker 1: pretty big part of the defense as well, in particular 91 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 1: against this passing attack. You really hope both those two 92 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,560 Speaker 1: guys play. The pros might be waiting to find out 93 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 1: about Eckler in James. Maybe that's why the number had 94 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 1: in the moved, but I am surprised we haven't seen 95 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 1: any movement here. But I'm taking charges money line because 96 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 1: I don't buy that Chiefs defense. Okay, I just I'm 97 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 1: not buying that Chiefs defense at all. I get the 98 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 1: defense for the charges isn't that great. But what I'm 99 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 1: doing here today, I got one unit in play Chiefs 100 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 1: money line. Sorry, charges money line at plus one forty 101 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:44,880 Speaker 1: five and the Chargers plus three against the Chiefs at 102 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:47,800 Speaker 1: minus won ten for one unit. I'm gonna put four 103 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 1: player props in play. Never done this before, Okay, I 104 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 1: do this on the weekend on Sundays during the live stream, 105 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 1: we do four player props. But that's across the entire 106 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:02,480 Speaker 1: spectrum of a sun. This is one game. But because 107 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 1: I hate the NBA right now, and I hate the 108 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 1: NHL right now, and the college basketball slate is disgusting, 109 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 1: this is where I'm in do today to put one 110 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:13,400 Speaker 1: more unit in play and he give you four plays. Okay, 111 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:17,359 Speaker 1: So let's start talking here about Clyde Edwards Hilaire. This 112 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,480 Speaker 1: is a guy who, to me, I have been very 113 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 1: impressed the Chiefs when they run the football, Okay, when 114 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:27,360 Speaker 1: they're able to move the ball on the ground, their 115 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:30,600 Speaker 1: offense is so much better. And him being out I 116 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 1: think was a significant deal to me. It was really 117 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 1: really big. So against the Cowboys twelve carries sixty three 118 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:42,360 Speaker 1: yards for c. E. H. Against the Broncos fourteen carries 119 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 1: for fifty four yards, and against the Raiders ten carries 120 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 1: for thirty seven yards, but he scored two touchdowns. Game 121 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 1: was a route. They didn't need him to run the football. 122 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:56,719 Speaker 1: The thing is, the Chargers are absolutely awful at stopping 123 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 1: the run. Everybody knows this. They cannot stop the run. 124 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:03,599 Speaker 1: They get run on. They are the second to last 125 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 1: worst rush defense in the NFL. They give up one 126 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 1: hundred and forty point seven yards per game on the ground, 127 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 1: four point seven yards per rush. That's twenty ninth. It's 128 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 1: not good. They get run on thirty point two rushes 129 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:19,719 Speaker 1: per game. Teams no, they can run on this guy, 130 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 1: So they're gonna run on this guy as much as 131 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:25,040 Speaker 1: possible in the game. Back in September, Clyde Edwards Hilaire 132 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 1: ran the ball seventeen times for one hundred yards against 133 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 1: this defense. This defense has not gotten better. Okay, in fact, 134 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 1: maybe they got a little worse here. I think Clyde 135 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 1: Edwards Hilaire gets a huge number of carries. I think 136 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:42,479 Speaker 1: he's getting fourteen to fifteen sixteen carries. Just go by 137 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 1: the average. Here the number for Clyde Edwards Hilaire fifty 138 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 1: six and a half yards rushing. That is widely available, 139 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:54,359 Speaker 1: by the way, that's available. It's available at bet MGM 140 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:58,479 Speaker 1: right now. It is available at DraftKings right now minus 141 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 1: one fifteen, minus one ten and Clyde Edwards Hilayer over 142 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 1: fifty six and a half yards rushing is a surprisingly 143 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 1: low number for how bad this rush defense is. I 144 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 1: don't really understand it, but we're gonna jump on it. 145 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 1: For a quarter unit. Ceh over fifty six and a 146 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 1: half yards rushing for the Casey Chiefs tonight on Thursday 147 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 1: Night football prop number one, prop number two. So let's 148 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 1: just hypothetically say that we're not going to get Austin Eckler, 149 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 1: and Austin Heckler is not going to play Justin Herbert's 150 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 1: rushing total fortnight. His rushing number is fifteen and a half. Okay. 151 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 1: In games that have been high scoring blowouts for the Chargers, 152 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:46,560 Speaker 1: Justin Herbert will run the football when it's an up tempo, 153 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 1: lots of possessions, opportunities to run. This team sees their 154 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 1: quarterback say I'll do it myself if I have to. 155 00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 1: So last game against the Giants for carries nineteen yards 156 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 1: again Cincinnati, it was a high scoring game. One carry 157 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:06,240 Speaker 1: for six yards didn't get it. But against the Denver 158 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 1: Broncos four carries thirty six yards against Pittsburgh nine carries 159 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 1: for ninety yards for Justin Herbert. That's incredible. Against Minnesota 160 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 1: two carries for twenty two yards. In the last five games, 161 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: Justin Herbert has gone over fifteen and a half rushing yards. 162 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 1: That's his number tonight, fifteen and a half rushing yards. 163 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 1: I do think this is going to be a high 164 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 1: scoring game. I think this is back and forth. I 165 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 1: think Justin Herbert's going to tuck the ball, and I 166 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 1: think Justin Herbert's going to go to pick up first 167 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:43,079 Speaker 1: downs on his own because he has to, in particular 168 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 1: if Austin Ekler is not going to be available for him. 169 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:48,680 Speaker 1: I think the Chiefs are going to be very wary 170 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:51,920 Speaker 1: and concerned about the running backs in the screen game 171 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 1: and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who should be good 172 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 1: to go. Keenan's back off of the COVID list, so 173 00:08:56,920 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: he got his two star wideouts there. I think the 174 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 1: Chiefs are going to be very very cognizant of those 175 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 1: guys and maybe play some more mandaman than the normal 176 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:08,960 Speaker 1: turn their backs. Herbert goes he can get this in 177 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:12,680 Speaker 1: one run, okay, fifteen and a half yards over fifteen 178 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:15,240 Speaker 1: and a half yards at minus one twenty for Justin 179 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 1: Herbert rushing. And by the way, there's a theme here 180 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:21,440 Speaker 1: in terms of where we're betting for props. Okay, high 181 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:23,839 Speaker 1: scoring game meaning lots of overs for the props. We're 182 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:27,120 Speaker 1: gonna correlate that together. So the first prop is Clyde 183 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 1: vertson layer over fifty six and a half yards rushing. 184 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:34,680 Speaker 1: Second prop is Justin Herbert over fifteen and a half 185 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 1: yards rushing, and I got two receiving props for you. 186 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: This is a little bit boring, it's a little bit 187 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 1: I don't know, kind of chalky. But have you guys 188 00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:48,840 Speaker 1: seen the numbers that these Chargers give up to tight ends. 189 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:52,559 Speaker 1: Have you seen what Travis Kelsey's number is fortnight? It's 190 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 1: sixty six and a half yards receiving. I almost did 191 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 1: like a double take at this. I was like, wait, 192 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:04,200 Speaker 1: what sixty six and a half. Wow, that's really really low, 193 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 1: in particular because of the numbers that we've seen from 194 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:11,720 Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey this season now last game out in the 195 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:14,200 Speaker 1: game before that against the Broncos, he wasn't needed, right, 196 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 1: three catches for twenty seven yards in both those games. Okay, 197 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 1: against the Cowboys five catches for seventy four yards. Against 198 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:22,719 Speaker 1: the Raiders, he had eight catches for one hundred and 199 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 1: nineteen yards. Some people with speculating that he might be 200 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 1: a little bit banged up, but the last time he 201 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 1: played the Chargers back in September, Travis Kelce seven catches 202 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 1: for one hundred and four yards. This defense gives up yards, 203 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:39,199 Speaker 1: this defense gets thrown on. We know this Chargers defense 204 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:42,839 Speaker 1: is better against the pass than they are against the run, 205 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 1: but they're still not outstanding. I mean they're good. If 206 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:49,360 Speaker 1: Derwin James is playing, they will be even better. But 207 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 1: if he's out, I like this prop even more for 208 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 1: Travis Kelce. But this team does well against wideouts, not 209 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 1: great against tight ends. Travis Kelce over sixty six and 210 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:03,040 Speaker 1: a half yard receiving. Don't overthink that. Let's just take 211 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 1: Travis kelcey number one receiving weapon for the Casey Chiefs. 212 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 1: I know he hasn't been great last couple of weeks, 213 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 1: but seventy four against the Cowboys, one hundred and nineteen 214 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 1: against the Raiders, sixty eight against the Packers in the 215 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 1: three games before the little two games swoon here with 216 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 1: the Broncos and the Raiders with three catches for twenty 217 00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 1: seven yards in each of those games. I think Kelsey 218 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 1: has a big game here against in a high flying, 219 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:30,079 Speaker 1: prime time environment, Kelsey over sixty six and a half 220 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 1: yards receiving. And the last bet here is off the 221 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 1: prop bet cheat sheet. All right. The prop bet cheat 222 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 1: sheet is projecting Donald Pardam to have thirty point eight 223 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 1: receiving yards tonight against this chief defense. Okay, his number 224 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 1: is ten and a half. Now you might go, wow, 225 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 1: that's crazy, and I do think that's that projection is 226 00:11:56,320 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 1: a little bit out there to me. However, take a 227 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 1: look at some of the games that Donald Parnum has had, Iowa, 228 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna go for that many. I 229 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 1: don't think he's going for thirty. But he has gone 230 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 1: for thirty. Against the Steelers, he had four catches for 231 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 1: thirty eight yards. Against the Eagles, he had three catches 232 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:18,680 Speaker 1: for thirty nine yards against excuse me, against the Chiefs, 233 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 1: he had one catch for nineteen yards. All right, So 234 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:26,079 Speaker 1: here we are dating back to that game against the Chiefs. 235 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 1: Ten and a half is the number Chiefs over Raiders 236 00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 1: over Browns over Ravens ten to ten and a half. 237 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 1: So close. Eagles over Vikings over Steelers, over Broncos, Bengals 238 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:45,560 Speaker 1: under five and three, and then Giants last week thirteen 239 00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 1: yards over the vast majority of Donald Parnum's game so 240 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 1: far this year, he's been over ten and a half 241 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 1: yards receiving. He basically needs one catch, right, he needs 242 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:01,080 Speaker 1: one second down and eight catch for twelve yards and 243 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:04,440 Speaker 1: we get there, or one red zone touchdown catch and 244 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 1: we get there. Right, He's a big target. It's a 245 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 1: defense that's not great against the pass, like we know, 246 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 1: okay they are. Casey is ranked twenty fourth in opposing 247 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 1: yards per pass place seven point one, twenty sixth in 248 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:23,040 Speaker 1: overall yards per game two hundred and fifty two. All right, 249 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 1: I know, I was talking about yesterday last night, saying, 250 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:28,839 Speaker 1: let's take the Justin Herbert over passing props. But it's 251 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 1: a little bit inflated, and so it's two hundred and 252 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 1: eighty seven and a half yards for Justin Herbert. I mean, 253 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: I think he could throw for three hundred, but you know, 254 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, it depends on how the 255 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 1: game flow goes, and I'm not positive he gets that 256 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:44,040 Speaker 1: many yards and they may run the ball more, and 257 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:47,680 Speaker 1: so I'm not entirely sure. Again, the props aren't out 258 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 1: for Austin Eckler because he's questionable. So if he does 259 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:53,920 Speaker 1: wind up playing, let's see what the stat adjustment might be. 260 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 1: Maybe that number goes down for Herbert, or maybe he 261 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:59,319 Speaker 1: goes up. I don't know, but I am more inclined 262 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:02,120 Speaker 1: to stay away from the Eckler and the Herbert passing 263 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 1: and receiving props because we don't know about him just 264 00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 1: about yet. I know Pardon's playing, and I'm gonna get 265 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:10,200 Speaker 1: a one to two catch night from him to go 266 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 1: over ten and a half at minus one fifteen. I 267 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: just think I'm gonna follow the prop bet cheat sheet 268 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 1: here on bettingpros dot com, and I think there's some 269 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 1: real value there. There's some real logic you can get 270 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 1: into this here, because I mean, again that run I 271 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 1: just gave you getting back to the last game against 272 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Every game except three of them and one 273 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:30,720 Speaker 1: was ten to a ten and a half, So he 274 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 1: just say that was a push. Epathetically every game but two, 275 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:37,720 Speaker 1: he's had double digit yards receiving for this offense. They 276 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 1: think Donald Parnum goes for over ten and a half. 277 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:42,960 Speaker 1: On the prop bet cheat sheet, they think he goes 278 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 1: for thirty tonight, all right, I'll follow it. Donald Partum 279 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:48,320 Speaker 1: over ten and a half receiving guards here at minus 280 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 1: one fifteen. All right, all four player props one quarter 281 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 1: unit to go along with the plays coming up here 282 00:14:55,800 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 1: for us tonight Chargers plus three one line. Okay, two 283 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 1: units in play on this one game, because I can't 284 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:06,240 Speaker 1: stand the other. If this is a low scoring game, 285 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 1: I'm gonna cry. Like if this is like a ten 286 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:10,480 Speaker 1: to seven game, I might be in big trouble. But 287 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 1: that's why I'm not doing any time touchdowns. I do 288 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 1: think both teams are gonna throw the ball a lot 289 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 1: and move the ball quite a bit. So okay, So 290 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 1: here four player props, quarter unit, one unit in play here, 291 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 1: as long as as well as the Chargers gate bets 292 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 1: for this game. Clyde Edwards Hilaire over fifty six and 293 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 1: a half yards rushing, Travis Kelce over sixty six and 294 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 1: a half yards receiving, Justin Herbert over fifteen and a 295 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 1: half yards rushing, Donald Parnum over ten and a half 296 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 1: yards receiving here at minus one fifteen mins one twenty. 297 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:42,360 Speaker 1: I'm not Herbert. Prop other two are minus one ten 298 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,560 Speaker 1: for us here on a Thursday, I'll be in the 299 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:49,240 Speaker 1: Discord channel, bettingpros dot com, slash Chat, or the link 300 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 1: is underneath me here on YouTube to get in. Let's 301 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 1: have some fun watching a Thursday night football game. I'm 302 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 1: gonna be making some wings and hanging out and drinking 303 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 1: and having some good time. So let's hang out in 304 00:15:57,480 --> 00:15:59,880 Speaker 1: the Discord channel together and let's watch this game and 305 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:02,920 Speaker 1: forget that basketball is going on and hockey's being played, 306 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 1: and just watch some football on a Thursday night. My 307 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 1: na's Matt Parotz. Follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt. 308 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 1: Each In the morning, it's the Deli Juices Podcast, always 309 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 1: being brought to you by bet MGM