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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: That's when you have fun when you're kicking somebody's ass

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Speaker 2: and they're.

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Speaker 1: Sucking for when I was good readay go, I'm bounder

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Speaker 1: on the baseline pop yeah, way outside.

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Speaker 3: Possible time.

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Speaker 2: The event.

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Speaker 1: There it is.

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Speaker 4: We Welcome to the Action Network podcast presented by fan Duel.

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Speaker 4: I'm Brendan glas Sheen, joined by Actions Director of Predictive

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Speaker 4: Analytics Sean Kerner and his reliable sidekick, predictive analytics analyst

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Speaker 4: Nick Giffen. Today, March Madness Opening Round Player props. Eighty

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Speaker 4: fourth edition of the Dance is underway with the first four.

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Speaker 4: Check out our pre Madness episodes already up March Madness

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Speaker 4: Betting Trends Mike Calabrese and our director of Research at Action,

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Speaker 4: Evan Abrams. We also have the giff and Guide to

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Speaker 4: March Madness. Yes, this Nick Giffin on this podcast right now.

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Speaker 1: Great stuff from Nick there.

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Speaker 4: If you're looking for deep dives into every game of

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Speaker 4: the first round, of course, check out our Big Bets

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Speaker 4: on Campus podcast everyone contributing this time of year. Extensive

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Speaker 4: breakdowns are also available on actionnetwork dot com and the

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Speaker 4: Action app as well. Jens Let's dive in player props

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Speaker 4: for the dance. Of course, you can track all of

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Speaker 4: these player props in the action app. They've run their models,

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Speaker 4: and I will say now, we will be with you

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Speaker 4: throughout the tournament. So this isn't the only time you'll

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Speaker 4: hear from us. We'll be with you sweet sixteen, so

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Speaker 4: on and so forth. Kerner get to start at my friend,

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Speaker 4: what you got?

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Speaker 3: Let's go. So for my first prop, I'm going with

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Speaker 3: Drew Pembar of unc Ashville under twenty and a half

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Speaker 3: points somber. He's averaged twenty one point two points per

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Speaker 3: game this season, while unc Asheville has averaged seventy five

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Speaker 3: points a game. Now they get to face UCLA, who

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Speaker 3: not only do they play at a slow pace, they

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Speaker 3: ranked first and Ken Palm's defensive efficiency Metric. Unc Ashville's

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Speaker 3: team total is all the way down to fifty eight

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Speaker 3: and a half here. That's seventeen points lower than their

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Speaker 3: season average. So it's gonna be tough for pember to

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Speaker 3: get points here. Plus just based on the matchup, it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be tougher for Pember. He gets a ton of

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Speaker 3: production at the free throw line. He actually led the

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Speaker 3: entire Division one and free throws made this season with

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Speaker 3: two hundred and sixty two. He's a great free throw shooter,

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Speaker 3: shoots eighty three percent. But UCLA sends opposing teams to

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Speaker 3: line at a lower rate than most schools, so he

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Speaker 3: might not get to the line as much this game

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Speaker 3: he's gonna have to face. You know, Ucla is great defense.

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Speaker 3: It's just a really tough matchup. Plus Ashville is also

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Speaker 3: likely going to turn it over a ton here. UCLA

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Speaker 3: has generated the eleventh highest turnover rate in Division One,

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Speaker 3: so that just means there's gonna be fewer possessions where

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Speaker 3: it's gonna end in a shot attempt. So there's a

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Speaker 3: ton of reasons to love is under here. He's a

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Speaker 3: great player, but we're projecting him closer to eighteen and

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Speaker 3: a half points with a sixty one percent chance of

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Speaker 3: staying under twenty and a half.

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Speaker 4: Love it no Jalen Clark for UCLA, But Hawkes is

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Speaker 4: likely the draw as far as the matchup. So Pember's

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Speaker 4: put up numbers, but when you got Hawkes defending you,

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Speaker 4: it could be a long day. Nick Giffen, you're gonna

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Speaker 4: go to the Midwest for your first pick.

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Speaker 1: Hi, everybody, Hi, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: First of all, I am definitely tailing Sean on that pick,

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Speaker 2: and last year when he and I were on the

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Speaker 2: same picks, we hit an over seventy percent rate, so

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Speaker 2: I'm one hundred percent with him on this one. I

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Speaker 2: love that Drew pember under there. So for my first pick,

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Speaker 2: I am going to go with Serjabari Rice of the

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Speaker 2: Texas Longhorns against Colgates. Yeah, I'm gonna take over one

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Speaker 2: and a half assists at minus one twenty five. This

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Speaker 2: one is all about the matchup Colgate. They are slightly

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Speaker 2: up tempo, so that obviously helps overs. They also are

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Speaker 2: a below average shot stopping team, and they're even worse

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Speaker 2: when it's schedule adjusted, right, because they've played a really

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Speaker 2: weak schedule. So if you're below average shots stoppopping team,

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Speaker 2: then more field goals are going to be made against you.

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Speaker 2: So that should help serge Bar's Rice assists because you

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Speaker 2: know his teammates are going to be making more of

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Speaker 2: their shots. Colgate also does not force turnovers, so more

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Speaker 2: of those possessions are going to end in field goal attempts.

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Speaker 2: Also because Colgate doesn't foul, so they're not sending Texas

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Speaker 2: to the line to end a possession. That means again

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Speaker 2: more field goal attempts, and so all those field goal

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Speaker 2: attempts and a really high field goal rate because Colgate

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Speaker 2: doesn't have a great defense in terms of, you know,

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Speaker 2: forcing teams to miss a lot of assists to go around.

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Speaker 2: In fact, only eleven point nine percent of points scored

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Speaker 2: against Colgate come by way of the free throw line,

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Speaker 2: which means the other you know, eighty eight or so

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Speaker 2: percentage of the points are scored via field goals, which

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Speaker 2: is number one in the nation. In other words, Colgate

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Speaker 2: allows the most points of any team in terms of

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Speaker 2: a fraction of the points they allowed by way of

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Speaker 2: field goals. So I love this over on Sergeribari Rice here.

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Speaker 2: Now only do I have him over one and a

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Speaker 2: half assists, but we're projecting two point six. So if

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Speaker 2: you can find plus money on like an over two

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Speaker 2: and a half, I even like that. But over one

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Speaker 2: and a half, we've got a seventy two percent chance

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Speaker 2: of going over here.

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Speaker 4: Colgate played Auburn in the non conference, their loan top

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Speaker 4: one hundred team, and they allowed ninety three points. Four

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Speaker 4: players in that game had at least two assists for

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Speaker 4: Auburn against the Colgate Raiders, so that tempo does farewell,

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Speaker 4: especially if Auburn can impose its will defensively.

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Speaker 1: I like it.

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Speaker 4: Moving on Kerner second pick for us, You're going to

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Speaker 4: the East Region the late night tip featuring Tennessee and Louisiana.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'm going themous folks of Louisiana to not

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Speaker 3: make a three pointer so under a half three made

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Speaker 3: at minus one fifteen, So he's only made a three

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Speaker 3: and six of twenty one conference games. That's a twenty

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Speaker 3: nine percent hit rate. Now he gets to face Tennessee,

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Speaker 3: who has allowed the lowest three point percentage in the

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Speaker 3: country at just twenty six percent. So are you are

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Speaker 3: you kidding me with this prop? So even if you

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Speaker 3: want to go with the theory that he might shoot

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Speaker 3: more threes due to Louisiana likely trailing for most of

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Speaker 3: the game, he only made one three pointer and their

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Speaker 3: seven losses combined this season, So there goes that theory

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Speaker 3: swatted out of here. So we're projecting him with a

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Speaker 3: seventy percent chance of not making a three pointing here.

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Speaker 3: So I love the fact that we're getting this at

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Speaker 3: essentially a coin flip.

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Speaker 1: So it could be a long day.

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Speaker 3: It's up for the fin of heart. He'll probably chuck up.

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Speaker 3: I'd say, like two, we're gonna have to, you know,

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Speaker 3: sweat an attempt or two or maybe three, but just

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Speaker 3: the chances of hitting one or I would say unlikely. Here.

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Speaker 2: I just love Sean, you know, swatting it out of

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Speaker 2: here getting his first rejection of the two A mite.

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Speaker 4: Goes without saying, everybody, when you when you tune in,

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Speaker 4: you want to get on these as fast as possible.

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Speaker 4: The market moves so quickly on the player props, so

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Speaker 4: that juice could be significant if you don't jump in

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Speaker 4: a sap.

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Speaker 1: I don't tell you what to do with your money,

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Speaker 1: don't tell me what to do with mine. Okay, Instantly,

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Speaker 1: I regret saying that. That was a horrible thing to say.

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Speaker 1: I love y'all very much. Back to the Midwest.

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Speaker 4: Nick Giffin's all over the Midwest for our first player

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Speaker 4: prop episode.

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Speaker 1: He got the funk. Giffen, what do you think of

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Speaker 1: Andrew Funk?

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Speaker 2: We are bringing the funk Andrew Funk, And like Sean,

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna take an under this time. I'm going to

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Speaker 2: take under three and a half rebounds for Penn State

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Speaker 2: here against Texas A and M and Funk, He's not

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Speaker 2: a high offensive rebound percentage guy. He grabs just zero

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Speaker 2: point nine percent of offensive rebound opportunity. So I'm not

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Speaker 2: really worried about him on the offensive glass. Where we're

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Speaker 2: really worried about could he crack this three and a

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Speaker 2: half number would be on the defensive glass, where he

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Speaker 2: has a nine percent defensive rebound rate. Well, on the

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Speaker 2: defensive glass, he really gets hurt in this matchup. First

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Speaker 2: of all, Texas A and M just in general, they're

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Speaker 2: a slower paced team, so fewer overall possessions. But Texas

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Speaker 2: AMM is also sixth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage,

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Speaker 2: so that means they're preventing defensive rebounds for their opponents,

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Speaker 2: which you know, Andrew Funk is his opponent, their opponent

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Speaker 2: this week. Even Sean and I, we've even adjusted the

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Speaker 2: offensive rebounding percentage of each team, and so we've taken

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Speaker 2: into account that Texas A and M has played an

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Speaker 2: easy schedule for their offensive rebounding and they're still thirty

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Speaker 2: fourth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage when we

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Speaker 2: schedule adjusted, so that is taken into account there, which

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Speaker 2: is still contributing to Andrew Funk going under here. Texas

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Speaker 2: A and M also they get to the line a

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Speaker 2: whole lot when they're on offense, meaning fewer defensive rebound

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Speaker 2: opportunities because if you're at the line, you're making typically

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Speaker 2: making a bunch of free throws which have a low

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Speaker 2: percent chance of missing. They also are an inside shooting team.

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Speaker 2: They take fifty six point three percent of their field

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Speaker 2: goals from an inside compared to a national average of

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Speaker 2: fifty two point seven, so again a higher percentage of

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Speaker 2: making shots when they do take shots. And Texas A

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Speaker 2: and is sloppy with the ball. They come in fifty

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Speaker 2: fourth out of sixty eight teams in this tournament in

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Speaker 2: turnover percentage, so a lot of their possessions are ending

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Speaker 2: in turnovers instead of ending in shots that could be

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Speaker 2: missed that could go for rebound opportunities here. So all

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Speaker 2: those things together just hurt Funk's defensive rebound opportunities. So

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Speaker 2: we are projecting him for two point eight rebounds with

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Speaker 2: a sixty eight percent chance of staying under three and

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Speaker 2: a half.

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Speaker 1: This Penn State team.

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Speaker 4: I look back at A and M's game against Bama

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Speaker 4: when they won by six at the end of the

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Speaker 4: regular season and conference regular season play.

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Speaker 1: And now Bama didn't have a great night shooting it.

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Speaker 4: But to your point of a volume three point shooting

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Speaker 4: team in A and M, they did have only six

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Speaker 4: offensive rebounds in the game, but their pace of play

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Speaker 4: is what I felt.

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Speaker 1: Kept Bama in check.

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Speaker 4: And also an M top seventy rebounding team in the

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Speaker 4: country this year. Buzz Williams will not allow the funk

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Speaker 4: to continue.

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Speaker 3: That's okay, all.

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Speaker 4: Right, good stuff, looking forward to that one. The funk

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Speaker 4: in the West Region Northwestern and Boise State. We got

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Speaker 4: an overplay from Kerner.

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Speaker 3: Yes, we got an overplay. I'm going Chibuzo Agbo for

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Speaker 3: Boise State over four and a half rebounds at minus

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Speaker 3: one ten. So he's only cleared this and forty percent

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Speaker 3: of conference games. But there are three factors just based

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Speaker 3: on this matchup that should lead to way more rebound

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Speaker 3: chances than he typically sees. So the first reason is,

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Speaker 3: you know, Northwestern is very good at not turning the

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Speaker 3: ball over. They have the twelfth lowest turnover rate in

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Speaker 3: the nation, so you know more of their possessions will

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Speaker 3: result in a shot attempt and potential rebound opportunity. The

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Speaker 3: second is they also tend to get to the free

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Speaker 3: throw line at a lower rate, so again you know

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Speaker 3: they're not gonna be shooting free throws, more likely to

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Speaker 3: have a possession that ends in a field goal attempt

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Speaker 3: in a miss. And third, and probably the most important factor,

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Speaker 3: Northwestern is a awful shooting team. They rank three hundred

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Speaker 3: and twentieth in Division One in effective field goal percentage.

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Speaker 3: I think that far down we should rename it ineffective

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Speaker 3: fie goal percentage. They also shoot threes at a high rate,

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Speaker 3: so we should see a brickfest here. All these factors

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Speaker 3: should lead dogbo seeing more rebound chances, and that's why

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Speaker 3: we're projecting him closer to five point six boards with

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Speaker 3: a sixty five percent chance of clearing four and a half.

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Speaker 4: Again, talk and match up, I guess the only concern

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Speaker 4: here would be Northwestern just having a better shooting night.

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Speaker 2: When you make shots, you can't read the basketball fair point.

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Speaker 3: Boise State has allowed the twenty ninth lowest three point percentage,

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Speaker 3: so maybe that'll help cool them off a bit, But

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Speaker 3: usually it doesn't take much to cool off Northwestern shooting.

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Speaker 4: And they're bottom third of the country in rebounding Northwestern

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Speaker 4: overall minus two rebounding margin for the season. So agbo

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Speaker 4: on the glass for Kerner, that's his third pick. Giffin's

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Speaker 4: got one more for us.

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Speaker 1: What do you have?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're going to a Friday game here, So we

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Speaker 2: turn in the page from Thursday over to Friday, and

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Speaker 2: I'm going to take Logan Johnson for Saint Mary's under

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Speaker 2: seventeen and a half points against VCU. You can get

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Speaker 2: this at minus one twenty and I love this prop

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Speaker 2: much like that Drew pember under. I'm going to take

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Speaker 2: you through a similar math here that Kerner did for

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Speaker 2: this point total under. So if we if we just

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Speaker 2: look at the you know, his his points that he

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Speaker 2: scored this year, and some basic team totals and minute stats,

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Speaker 2: that'll get us to a fourteen point seven point projection.

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Speaker 2: I'll take you through the map there. The Gails have

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Speaker 2: scored seventy one point two points per game this year,

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Speaker 2: but in this game against VCU, a slower paced team,

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Speaker 2: a great defensive team, they have just a sixty three

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Speaker 2: and a half implied team total, so down eight full

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Speaker 2: points almost from their season long average. And then we're

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Speaker 2: being kind of generous here to Logan Johnson, he's played

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Speaker 2: eighty five percent of the minutes this year, we're actually

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Speaker 2: projecting him for ninety five percent of the minutes, So

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Speaker 2: we are bumping up his usage here his overall minutes,

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Speaker 2: and still getting to that fourteen point seven point average

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Speaker 2: projection here from his sixteen point four points per game

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Speaker 2: he has averaged this year. Then we add in some

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Speaker 2: matchup level factors. There's nothing that's like super major here

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Speaker 2: in terms of like very specific things, but a few

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Speaker 2: little things add up to lower it from fourteen point

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Speaker 2: seven to fourteen point five. But most notably, VC's defensive

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Speaker 2: style forces teams to play really slow offensively. They ranked

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Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty second in the nation in defensive

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Speaker 2: pace of play, meaning a bigger number being slower, and

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Speaker 2: Saint Mary's is three hundred and fifty ninth in offensive

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Speaker 2: pace of play. So there's gonna be really long possessions

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Speaker 2: for Saint Mary's. And one other little factor here, I

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Speaker 2: know five thirty eight. They've done some research that east

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Speaker 2: to west travel or west to east travel matters a

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Speaker 2: lot more than north to south travel in the tournament. Well,

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Speaker 2: Saint Mary's coming from the West coast, playing all the

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Speaker 2: way over on the East coast here in Albany and

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Speaker 2: a two pm Eastern time game that's eleven AM for

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Speaker 2: their Pacific time bodyclock, so it could be a little

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Speaker 2: bit of maybe an issue there as well. So that's

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Speaker 2: why we have Logan Johnson projected for fourteen and a

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Speaker 2: half points, which is well under that seventeen and a half.

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Speaker 4: In three of their final five games this regular season,

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Speaker 4: VCU was holding their opponents under sixty points. They've been

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Speaker 4: a popular pick too, just talking and talking money line

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Speaker 4: that their their money line number is shortening throughout the

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Speaker 4: course of the week. That's a twelve five matchup where

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Speaker 4: folks do like the dog and Saint Mary's being exposed

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Speaker 4: by Gonzaga the game at the Zags to close the

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Speaker 4: regular season, the WCC Championship game. Hey, good stuff, VCU

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Speaker 4: taking on Saint Mary's Logan Johnson of the Gales under

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Speaker 4: seventeen and a half points. Fellas, I think it's safe

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Speaker 4: to say that as this first round continues, you may

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Speaker 4: or you may have more.

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Speaker 3: For absolutely have a ton or after they get start.

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Speaker 2: We're one and one on the ones we have played

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Speaker 2: together so far.

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Speaker 4: Yes, tournament, Okay, well that is your opening Round March

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Speaker 4: Madness Player Props episode here on the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 1: We are presented by Fandel.

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Speaker 4: You can find Sean Kerner and Nick Giffen individually, and

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Speaker 4: you can find them both on the Action Network website.

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Speaker 4: Also find them in the app. Don't forget to download

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Speaker 4: the free award winning Action Network cap to follow these

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Speaker 4: guys and their picks throughout the tournament. Best Bluck everybody

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Speaker 4: Enjoy Thursday to Sunday, opening Round round of thirty two

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Speaker 4: Action We will see you next week for sure to

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Speaker 4: get you set.

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Speaker 1: For the Sweet sixteen games.

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Speaker 4: Middle of next week for another player Props episode for

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Speaker 4: Sean Carter, Nick Giffen, Brendan Glaschien.

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Speaker 1: We'll see you next time on the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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