WEBVTT - Who Will Win the Trade War?  Ian Bremmer talks to Armstrong & Getty

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<v Speaker 1>The topic is the trade war with China. Two very

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<v Speaker 1>simple questions for our guest, Ian Bremer, When will it end?

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<v Speaker 1>And who will be the winner? And as soon as

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<v Speaker 1>the answers as will move on with our lives. Ian

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<v Speaker 1>Bremer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group. That

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<v Speaker 1>would be a waste of the brilliance of Ian Bremer. Please, Ian,

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<v Speaker 1>how are you very well? Sir? How are you guys?

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<v Speaker 1>When will it end? And who will win? Uh? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean we will win because we are bigger, and

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<v Speaker 1>it will impact I mean, whether we end it or not,

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to have a lot more impact on China

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<v Speaker 1>than it will us. But there'll be some you know,

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<v Speaker 1>broken ceramics uh in the interim and uh. And we're

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<v Speaker 1>already starting to feel that. Um. There's definitely been marked

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<v Speaker 1>impact in the US and it will definitely affect some

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<v Speaker 1>consumers pockets. UM. I don't expect that the remaining three

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<v Speaker 1>billion um that Trump is threatening of tariffs, I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think that's going to hit because those are on consumer

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<v Speaker 1>products that will be very visible to Trump voters and

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<v Speaker 1>will be immediately visible to the media. I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>he wants to do that, So I do believe that

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<v Speaker 1>both sides are incented pretty heavily to UM. Now find

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<v Speaker 1>a way to get closer to yes before Trump and

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<v Speaker 1>Cheese and Thing meet directly next month at the G

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<v Speaker 1>twenty meetings in Osaka, Japan. Uh. We have a friend

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<v Speaker 1>of the show who has worked and lived in China

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<v Speaker 1>for decades and studies Chinese economics. He's saying that there

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<v Speaker 1>is a growing sense in China, at least among some

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<v Speaker 1>fairly powerful people, that hey, look, bringing ourselves up to

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<v Speaker 1>the rest of the world standards in trade is a

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<v Speaker 1>good idea that would be good for China long term.

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<v Speaker 1>How significant is that group of folks in China do

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<v Speaker 1>you think it's growing? Uh? You know, China used to

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<v Speaker 1>be a technological power purely because they stole stuff from

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<v Speaker 1>the Americans. And if that's the way you build your technology,

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<v Speaker 1>then you don't want to get to our standards. But

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<v Speaker 1>today China is the world leader in some areas of technology.

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<v Speaker 1>They're better at voice recognition and facial recognition than we are. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>They're better at ride sharing UM than we are, in

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<v Speaker 1>part because they just have so much more data. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we have eight hundred million people on smartphones and fifty

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<v Speaker 1>times as much digital commerce as the Americans five zero.

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<v Speaker 1>Then then you're just going to get better at this stuff,

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<v Speaker 1>right And and in that regard, you've got a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of Chinese companies that are nominally private sector but very

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<v Speaker 1>aligned with the Chinese government, not like our private sector companies,

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<v Speaker 1>that actually want to make sure that their own patents

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<v Speaker 1>are protected, their own intellectual property doesn't get stolen by anybody,

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<v Speaker 1>by Chinese competitors, by Western competitors. So there is a

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<v Speaker 1>growing demand for improved standards in China, and there are

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<v Speaker 1>many that appreciate a push from the Trump administration to

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<v Speaker 1>get there, but they don't want to be embarrassed publicly,

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<v Speaker 1>and they also want to have their take and eat

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<v Speaker 1>it too. They don't want to open their economy to

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<v Speaker 1>the Americans. They want to prefer the Chinese companies. So

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<v Speaker 1>there it's not as if they want to become a

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<v Speaker 1>free market economy. That is cruely not true. I was

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<v Speaker 1>because I was going to ask, how much do you

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<v Speaker 1>buy this idea that this isn't just the trade war

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<v Speaker 1>around the specifics being discussed. This is a battle of

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<v Speaker 1>two systems to see which one is better. Uh, it's

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit I mean, Trump and Cheese and King

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<v Speaker 1>have had their teams negotiating around trade and around issues

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<v Speaker 1>that complicate trade. I mean, there are a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>places that we really disagree with the Chinese, and they're

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<v Speaker 1>not being negotiated at all. For example, just yesterday, the

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<v Speaker 1>Americans put some significantly harder line policies in place that

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<v Speaker 1>are going to hurt Huawei, the telecom company aligned with

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<v Speaker 1>the Chinese government, and five G their effort to dominate

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<v Speaker 1>the rollout of what will be the backbone of the

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<v Speaker 1>entire Internet of Things. So, I mean, the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>the Americans and Chinese have been talking on trade hasn't

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<v Speaker 1>had in any impact on our fight with them on technology,

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<v Speaker 1>or on Taiwan or Hong Kong or the South China

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<v Speaker 1>see you know, or the weakers for example, a million

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<v Speaker 1>of whom are being held in detention camps um inside China.

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<v Speaker 1>None of that is coming up in the negotiations that

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<v Speaker 1>we're having with them on trade. But what that also

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<v Speaker 1>means is that if we do get a deal on

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<v Speaker 1>trade and on balance, I'm more optimistic than than pestimistic.

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<v Speaker 1>I still think that the level of trust between our

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<v Speaker 1>system and their system is near zero and the likelihood

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<v Speaker 1>of conflict that we will have on all those other

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<v Speaker 1>issues doesn't get reduced. Um in the aftermath of a

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<v Speaker 1>big announced deal. Really, how interesting. Ian Bremer, President, founder

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<v Speaker 1>of Eurasia Group on the line. Uh, you know, use

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<v Speaker 1>a percentage, use a letter, grade, lease whatever you want. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>how optimistic are you that this gets resolved stay within

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<v Speaker 1>the next two months? Two months? Uh, probably by the

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<v Speaker 1>end of the year, north of fifty. But even if

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<v Speaker 1>it doesn't get resolved, I would be surprised if we see, um,

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<v Speaker 1>the tariffs hit the entirety of Chinese imports into the

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<v Speaker 1>United States. Really, in the context of the markets, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>more optimistic than not. You know, you look at where

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<v Speaker 1>the average American market participant is right now. I'm probably

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<v Speaker 1>on the bullish side, right. Ian Bremer, President and founder

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<v Speaker 1>of Eurasia Group. Ian, Uh, really enjoy it. We know

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<v Speaker 1>how busy you are. Look forward to a longer chat

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<v Speaker 1>down the road. But thanks a million talking to That

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<v Speaker 1>was the best thing I've heard on the China trade things.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's not Trump's trade war is hurting that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I know? Oh my god, can we talk about the

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<v Speaker 1>bigger picture? Please remember the stock market going into the

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<v Speaker 1>tanker on Monday Trump's crash, it's pretty much back to

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<v Speaker 1>where it was on Friday's close exactly. Yeah, and I

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<v Speaker 1>saw shows that I like with hosts. I like talking

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<v Speaker 1>about that with serious tunes. Let's go to our correspondent

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<v Speaker 1>on the floor of the of Wall Street here at

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<v Speaker 1>the down. What does this mean to people in their

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<v Speaker 1>four one k It doesn't mean freaking anything. Well, if

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<v Speaker 1>you dash out completely today at noon, that's been your

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<v Speaker 1>plans since you were a wee lad or lass. Okay, great,

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<v Speaker 1>then you've got a problem because you just lost three

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<v Speaker 1>or you could wait two days, or it was an

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<v Speaker 1>opportunity to strengthen your positions and things. The big brain

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<v Speaker 1>positive sean of the investing class, Hi, Hi so high?

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<v Speaker 1>Is that it? But Ian Bremer right there, who's no

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<v Speaker 1>Trump fan follow his Twitter feed, Who's gonna win this war?

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<v Speaker 1>We are no hesitation whatsoever. So there you go, there

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<v Speaker 1>you go, there you I go. I tell you what.

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<v Speaker 1>I am so mad at America's media today. If there

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<v Speaker 1>are a number of issues that they are just wildly

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<v Speaker 1>out of line in the way they they're such a

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<v Speaker 1>distorted lens of the way America really feels and is

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<v Speaker 1>just makes me nuts. But I was kind of surprised

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<v Speaker 1>that in two months, I'm above fifty by the end

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<v Speaker 1>of the year. By the end of the year, you

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<v Speaker 1>just get over this is gonna end. That surprised me.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a lot longer term than I was expecting. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>Ian Bremer with more bombshells than the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a little geo political The Weaker sounds like a

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<v Speaker 1>sitcom Meet the Weakers, But that's the the Muslim group.

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<v Speaker 1>They're holding concentration camps there, and yeah, at least a million,

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<v Speaker 1>a million. It's amazing how little coverage that gets. Some

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<v Speaker 1>people say, it's three million, three million people in concentration.

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<v Speaker 1>Keep voting for socialism, it'll be great. They just just

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<v Speaker 1>it's bad people who won't cooperate who end up in

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<v Speaker 1>concentration camps, not good people who follow the government's orders.