Speaker 1: The topic is the trade war with China. Two very
Speaker 1: simple questions for our guest, Ian Bremer, When will it end?
Speaker 1: And who will be the winner? And as soon as
Speaker 1: the answers as will move on with our lives. Ian
Speaker 1: Bremer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group. That
Speaker 1: would be a waste of the brilliance of Ian Bremer. Please, Ian,
Speaker 1: how are you very well? Sir? How are you guys?
Speaker 1: When will it end? And who will win? Uh? Well,
Speaker 1: I mean we will win because we are bigger, and
Speaker 1: it will impact I mean, whether we end it or not,
Speaker 1: it's going to have a lot more impact on China
Speaker 1: than it will us. But there'll be some you know,
Speaker 1: broken ceramics uh in the interim and uh. And we're
Speaker 1: already starting to feel that. Um. There's definitely been marked
Speaker 1: impact in the US and it will definitely affect some
Speaker 1: consumers pockets. UM. I don't expect that the remaining three
Speaker 1: billion um that Trump is threatening of tariffs, I don't
Speaker 1: think that's going to hit because those are on consumer
Speaker 1: products that will be very visible to Trump voters and
Speaker 1: will be immediately visible to the media. I don't think
Speaker 1: he wants to do that, So I do believe that
Speaker 1: both sides are incented pretty heavily to UM. Now find
Speaker 1: a way to get closer to yes before Trump and
Speaker 1: Cheese and Thing meet directly next month at the G
Speaker 1: twenty meetings in Osaka, Japan. Uh. We have a friend
Speaker 1: of the show who has worked and lived in China
Speaker 1: for decades and studies Chinese economics. He's saying that there
Speaker 1: is a growing sense in China, at least among some
Speaker 1: fairly powerful people, that hey, look, bringing ourselves up to
Speaker 1: the rest of the world standards in trade is a
Speaker 1: good idea that would be good for China long term.
Speaker 1: How significant is that group of folks in China do
Speaker 1: you think it's growing? Uh? You know, China used to
Speaker 1: be a technological power purely because they stole stuff from
Speaker 1: the Americans. And if that's the way you build your technology,
Speaker 1: then you don't want to get to our standards. But
Speaker 1: today China is the world leader in some areas of technology.
Speaker 1: They're better at voice recognition and facial recognition than we are. UM.
Speaker 1: They're better at ride sharing UM than we are, in
Speaker 1: part because they just have so much more data. I mean,
Speaker 1: we have eight hundred million people on smartphones and fifty
Speaker 1: times as much digital commerce as the Americans five zero.
Speaker 1: Then then you're just going to get better at this stuff,
Speaker 1: right And and in that regard, you've got a lot
Speaker 1: of Chinese companies that are nominally private sector but very
Speaker 1: aligned with the Chinese government, not like our private sector companies,
Speaker 1: that actually want to make sure that their own patents
Speaker 1: are protected, their own intellectual property doesn't get stolen by anybody,
Speaker 1: by Chinese competitors, by Western competitors. So there is a
Speaker 1: growing demand for improved standards in China, and there are
Speaker 1: many that appreciate a push from the Trump administration to
Speaker 1: get there, but they don't want to be embarrassed publicly,
Speaker 1: and they also want to have their take and eat
Speaker 1: it too. They don't want to open their economy to
Speaker 1: the Americans. They want to prefer the Chinese companies. So
Speaker 1: there it's not as if they want to become a
Speaker 1: free market economy. That is cruely not true. I was
Speaker 1: because I was going to ask, how much do you
Speaker 1: buy this idea that this isn't just the trade war
Speaker 1: around the specifics being discussed. This is a battle of
Speaker 1: two systems to see which one is better. Uh, it's
Speaker 1: a little bit I mean, Trump and Cheese and King
Speaker 1: have had their teams negotiating around trade and around issues
Speaker 1: that complicate trade. I mean, there are a lot of
Speaker 1: places that we really disagree with the Chinese, and they're
Speaker 1: not being negotiated at all. For example, just yesterday, the
Speaker 1: Americans put some significantly harder line policies in place that
Speaker 1: are going to hurt Huawei, the telecom company aligned with
Speaker 1: the Chinese government, and five G their effort to dominate
Speaker 1: the rollout of what will be the backbone of the
Speaker 1: entire Internet of Things. So, I mean, the fact that
Speaker 1: the Americans and Chinese have been talking on trade hasn't
Speaker 1: had in any impact on our fight with them on technology,
Speaker 1: or on Taiwan or Hong Kong or the South China
Speaker 1: see you know, or the weakers for example, a million
Speaker 1: of whom are being held in detention camps um inside China.
Speaker 1: None of that is coming up in the negotiations that
Speaker 1: we're having with them on trade. But what that also
Speaker 1: means is that if we do get a deal on
Speaker 1: trade and on balance, I'm more optimistic than than pestimistic.
Speaker 1: I still think that the level of trust between our
Speaker 1: system and their system is near zero and the likelihood
Speaker 1: of conflict that we will have on all those other
Speaker 1: issues doesn't get reduced. Um in the aftermath of a
Speaker 1: big announced deal. Really, how interesting. Ian Bremer, President, founder
Speaker 1: of Eurasia Group on the line. Uh, you know, use
Speaker 1: a percentage, use a letter, grade, lease whatever you want. Um,
Speaker 1: how optimistic are you that this gets resolved stay within
Speaker 1: the next two months? Two months? Uh, probably by the
Speaker 1: end of the year, north of fifty. But even if
Speaker 1: it doesn't get resolved, I would be surprised if we see, um,
Speaker 1: the tariffs hit the entirety of Chinese imports into the
Speaker 1: United States. Really, in the context of the markets, I'm
Speaker 1: more optimistic than not. You know, you look at where
Speaker 1: the average American market participant is right now. I'm probably
Speaker 1: on the bullish side, right. Ian Bremer, President and founder
Speaker 1: of Eurasia Group. Ian, Uh, really enjoy it. We know
Speaker 1: how busy you are. Look forward to a longer chat
Speaker 1: down the road. But thanks a million talking to That
Speaker 1: was the best thing I've heard on the China trade things.
Speaker 1: And it's not Trump's trade war is hurting that, you know,
Speaker 1: I know? Oh my god, can we talk about the
Speaker 1: bigger picture? Please remember the stock market going into the
Speaker 1: tanker on Monday Trump's crash, it's pretty much back to
Speaker 1: where it was on Friday's close exactly. Yeah, and I
Speaker 1: saw shows that I like with hosts. I like talking
Speaker 1: about that with serious tunes. Let's go to our correspondent
Speaker 1: on the floor of the of Wall Street here at
Speaker 1: the down. What does this mean to people in their
Speaker 1: four one k It doesn't mean freaking anything. Well, if
Speaker 1: you dash out completely today at noon, that's been your
Speaker 1: plans since you were a wee lad or lass. Okay, great,
Speaker 1: then you've got a problem because you just lost three
Speaker 1: or you could wait two days, or it was an
Speaker 1: opportunity to strengthen your positions and things. The big brain
Speaker 1: positive sean of the investing class, Hi, Hi so high?
Speaker 1: Is that it? But Ian Bremer right there, who's no
Speaker 1: Trump fan follow his Twitter feed, Who's gonna win this war?
Speaker 1: We are no hesitation whatsoever. So there you go, there
Speaker 1: you go, there you I go. I tell you what.
Speaker 1: I am so mad at America's media today. If there
Speaker 1: are a number of issues that they are just wildly
Speaker 1: out of line in the way they they're such a
Speaker 1: distorted lens of the way America really feels and is
Speaker 1: just makes me nuts. But I was kind of surprised
Speaker 1: that in two months, I'm above fifty by the end
Speaker 1: of the year. By the end of the year, you
Speaker 1: just get over this is gonna end. That surprised me.
Speaker 1: That's a lot longer term than I was expecting. Yeah,
Speaker 1: Ian Bremer with more bombshells than the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Hey,
Speaker 1: there's a little geo political The Weaker sounds like a
Speaker 1: sitcom Meet the Weakers, But that's the the Muslim group.
Speaker 1: They're holding concentration camps there, and yeah, at least a million,
Speaker 1: a million. It's amazing how little coverage that gets. Some
Speaker 1: people say, it's three million, three million people in concentration.
Speaker 1: Keep voting for socialism, it'll be great. They just just
Speaker 1: it's bad people who won't cooperate who end up in
Speaker 1: concentration camps, not good people who follow the government's orders.