1 00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:03,040 Speaker 1: The topic is the trade war with China. Two very 2 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:06,080 Speaker 1: simple questions for our guest, Ian Bremer, When will it end? 3 00:00:06,760 --> 00:00:08,240 Speaker 1: And who will be the winner? And as soon as 4 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: the answers as will move on with our lives. Ian 5 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:12,959 Speaker 1: Bremer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group. That 6 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: would be a waste of the brilliance of Ian Bremer. Please, Ian, 7 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:19,400 Speaker 1: how are you very well? Sir? How are you guys? 8 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:23,000 Speaker 1: When will it end? And who will win? Uh? Well, 9 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: I mean we will win because we are bigger, and 10 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: it will impact I mean, whether we end it or not, 11 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: it's going to have a lot more impact on China 12 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:34,279 Speaker 1: than it will us. But there'll be some you know, 13 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:39,160 Speaker 1: broken ceramics uh in the interim and uh. And we're 14 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 1: already starting to feel that. Um. There's definitely been marked 15 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 1: impact in the US and it will definitely affect some 16 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:49,239 Speaker 1: consumers pockets. UM. I don't expect that the remaining three 17 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 1: billion um that Trump is threatening of tariffs, I don't 18 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 1: think that's going to hit because those are on consumer 19 00:00:56,040 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 1: products that will be very visible to Trump voters and 20 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 1: will be immediately visible to the media. I don't think 21 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: he wants to do that, So I do believe that 22 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:10,160 Speaker 1: both sides are incented pretty heavily to UM. Now find 23 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:12,760 Speaker 1: a way to get closer to yes before Trump and 24 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: Cheese and Thing meet directly next month at the G 25 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 1: twenty meetings in Osaka, Japan. Uh. We have a friend 26 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 1: of the show who has worked and lived in China 27 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:26,200 Speaker 1: for decades and studies Chinese economics. He's saying that there 28 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 1: is a growing sense in China, at least among some 29 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 1: fairly powerful people, that hey, look, bringing ourselves up to 30 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 1: the rest of the world standards in trade is a 31 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 1: good idea that would be good for China long term. 32 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 1: How significant is that group of folks in China do 33 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 1: you think it's growing? Uh? You know, China used to 34 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: be a technological power purely because they stole stuff from 35 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 1: the Americans. And if that's the way you build your technology, 36 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,040 Speaker 1: then you don't want to get to our standards. But 37 00:01:56,240 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 1: today China is the world leader in some areas of technology. 38 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 1: They're better at voice recognition and facial recognition than we are. UM. 39 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 1: They're better at ride sharing UM than we are, in 40 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:10,640 Speaker 1: part because they just have so much more data. I mean, 41 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:13,800 Speaker 1: we have eight hundred million people on smartphones and fifty 42 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:17,079 Speaker 1: times as much digital commerce as the Americans five zero. 43 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 1: Then then you're just going to get better at this stuff, 44 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:23,120 Speaker 1: right And and in that regard, you've got a lot 45 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:27,680 Speaker 1: of Chinese companies that are nominally private sector but very 46 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:30,920 Speaker 1: aligned with the Chinese government, not like our private sector companies, 47 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:34,239 Speaker 1: that actually want to make sure that their own patents 48 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:38,399 Speaker 1: are protected, their own intellectual property doesn't get stolen by anybody, 49 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 1: by Chinese competitors, by Western competitors. So there is a 50 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:47,960 Speaker 1: growing demand for improved standards in China, and there are 51 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 1: many that appreciate a push from the Trump administration to 52 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 1: get there, but they don't want to be embarrassed publicly, 53 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 1: and they also want to have their take and eat 54 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 1: it too. They don't want to open their economy to 55 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 1: the Americans. They want to prefer the Chinese companies. So 56 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 1: there it's not as if they want to become a 57 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 1: free market economy. That is cruely not true. I was 58 00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 1: because I was going to ask, how much do you 59 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 1: buy this idea that this isn't just the trade war 60 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 1: around the specifics being discussed. This is a battle of 61 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:17,079 Speaker 1: two systems to see which one is better. Uh, it's 62 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:20,239 Speaker 1: a little bit I mean, Trump and Cheese and King 63 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 1: have had their teams negotiating around trade and around issues 64 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:28,960 Speaker 1: that complicate trade. I mean, there are a lot of 65 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:32,920 Speaker 1: places that we really disagree with the Chinese, and they're 66 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 1: not being negotiated at all. For example, just yesterday, the 67 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: Americans put some significantly harder line policies in place that 68 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 1: are going to hurt Huawei, the telecom company aligned with 69 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 1: the Chinese government, and five G their effort to dominate 70 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 1: the rollout of what will be the backbone of the 71 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 1: entire Internet of Things. So, I mean, the fact that 72 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 1: the Americans and Chinese have been talking on trade hasn't 73 00:03:56,760 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 1: had in any impact on our fight with them on technology, 74 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 1: or on Taiwan or Hong Kong or the South China 75 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 1: see you know, or the weakers for example, a million 76 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 1: of whom are being held in detention camps um inside China. 77 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 1: None of that is coming up in the negotiations that 78 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 1: we're having with them on trade. But what that also 79 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:17,599 Speaker 1: means is that if we do get a deal on 80 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:21,840 Speaker 1: trade and on balance, I'm more optimistic than than pestimistic. 81 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:25,480 Speaker 1: I still think that the level of trust between our 82 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 1: system and their system is near zero and the likelihood 83 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 1: of conflict that we will have on all those other 84 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 1: issues doesn't get reduced. Um in the aftermath of a 85 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:40,839 Speaker 1: big announced deal. Really, how interesting. Ian Bremer, President, founder 86 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:44,600 Speaker 1: of Eurasia Group on the line. Uh, you know, use 87 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 1: a percentage, use a letter, grade, lease whatever you want. Um, 88 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: how optimistic are you that this gets resolved stay within 89 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 1: the next two months? Two months? Uh, probably by the 90 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 1: end of the year, north of fifty. But even if 91 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 1: it doesn't get resolved, I would be surprised if we see, um, 92 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 1: the tariffs hit the entirety of Chinese imports into the 93 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 1: United States. Really, in the context of the markets, I'm 94 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:18,480 Speaker 1: more optimistic than not. You know, you look at where 95 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 1: the average American market participant is right now. I'm probably 96 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 1: on the bullish side, right. Ian Bremer, President and founder 97 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:27,279 Speaker 1: of Eurasia Group. Ian, Uh, really enjoy it. We know 98 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:29,360 Speaker 1: how busy you are. Look forward to a longer chat 99 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 1: down the road. But thanks a million talking to That 100 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:35,320 Speaker 1: was the best thing I've heard on the China trade things. 101 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:40,039 Speaker 1: And it's not Trump's trade war is hurting that, you know, 102 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 1: I know? Oh my god, can we talk about the 103 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:46,359 Speaker 1: bigger picture? Please remember the stock market going into the 104 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 1: tanker on Monday Trump's crash, it's pretty much back to 105 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:53,359 Speaker 1: where it was on Friday's close exactly. Yeah, and I 106 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 1: saw shows that I like with hosts. I like talking 107 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 1: about that with serious tunes. Let's go to our correspondent 108 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 1: on the floor of the of Wall Street here at 109 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:02,840 Speaker 1: the down. What does this mean to people in their 110 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 1: four one k It doesn't mean freaking anything. Well, if 111 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: you dash out completely today at noon, that's been your 112 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 1: plans since you were a wee lad or lass. Okay, great, 113 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 1: then you've got a problem because you just lost three 114 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:20,040 Speaker 1: or you could wait two days, or it was an 115 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:24,679 Speaker 1: opportunity to strengthen your positions and things. The big brain 116 00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:28,359 Speaker 1: positive sean of the investing class, Hi, Hi so high? 117 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 1: Is that it? But Ian Bremer right there, who's no 118 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 1: Trump fan follow his Twitter feed, Who's gonna win this war? 119 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 1: We are no hesitation whatsoever. So there you go, there 120 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 1: you go, there you I go. I tell you what. 121 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: I am so mad at America's media today. If there 122 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 1: are a number of issues that they are just wildly 123 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:51,839 Speaker 1: out of line in the way they they're such a 124 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 1: distorted lens of the way America really feels and is 125 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:58,599 Speaker 1: just makes me nuts. But I was kind of surprised 126 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 1: that in two months, I'm above fifty by the end 127 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 1: of the year. By the end of the year, you 128 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 1: just get over this is gonna end. That surprised me. 129 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 1: That's a lot longer term than I was expecting. Yeah, 130 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 1: Ian Bremer with more bombshells than the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Hey, 131 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 1: there's a little geo political The Weaker sounds like a 132 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 1: sitcom Meet the Weakers, But that's the the Muslim group. 133 00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 1: They're holding concentration camps there, and yeah, at least a million, 134 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 1: a million. It's amazing how little coverage that gets. Some 135 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 1: people say, it's three million, three million people in concentration. 136 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 1: Keep voting for socialism, it'll be great. They just just 137 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 1: it's bad people who won't cooperate who end up in 138 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 1: concentration camps, not good people who follow the government's orders.