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Speaker 1: Well, joining me now is somebody who's going to become

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Speaker 1: a candidate for the eventual tododcast Hall of Fame of guests,

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Speaker 1: because he now joins Mark Zandy and Jake Sherman in

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Speaker 1: this iteration of becoming a repeat guest of the Chuck Podcast.

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Speaker 1: He's actually a three time I don't know how we're

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Speaker 1: going to you know, it's like, do you account laugh

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Speaker 1: in appearances with your SNL appearances back in the day,

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Speaker 1: but many of you. Bruce is just one of my

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Speaker 1: favorite smart people to talk to, pure and simple. He's

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Speaker 1: sort of a Washington smart guy. Works in Washington the

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Speaker 1: business of Washington. Yes, that means representing corporate interests, sometimes

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Speaker 1: dealing with Congress. I think there was a time he

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Speaker 1: had a political party. I don't know if he does

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Speaker 1: any more, but it doesn't matter whether he does or not.

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Speaker 1: His analysis is always database. His substack. He took what

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Speaker 1: we've loved his quarterly reports, he started into a weekly substack.

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Speaker 1: You get Sunday Morning charts from him. He's just, uh,

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Speaker 1: it's just good every once in a while to have

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Speaker 1: a smart guy on this podcast. We don't have enough

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Speaker 1: of them. I am on TV.

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Speaker 2: You're Martin short, Chuck, Well, there you go.

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Speaker 1: I think it was Martin Martin Short. That's a you're right.

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Speaker 1: I mean Martin Short. By the way, he's one of

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Speaker 1: those comedians. Comedian everybody in the business like holds him

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Speaker 1: up higher than everybody else, even though the public doesn't

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Speaker 1: always for whatever reason.

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Speaker 2: Well, I was just going for the frequency of guests,

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Speaker 2: figuring I don't deserve to call myself Steve Martin. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's what I was going for.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's it. Yeah, that's it. Well, welcome, good to

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Speaker 1: see you.

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Speaker 2: Great to see you as well. I love the sort

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Speaker 2: of the Chuck Todd unchained now that you are an entrepreneurial,

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Speaker 2: not tied to any particular media property that has to

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Speaker 2: negotiate public spectrum licenses.

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Speaker 1: You say what you want, you do what.

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Speaker 2: You want, and it's, you know, sort of like our

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Speaker 2: mutual buddy Solisa. It's it's it is fun to see

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Speaker 2: somebody who has been as successful at you going to

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Speaker 2: traditional route, going totally off menu and just every night

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Speaker 2: whipping up really cool, interesting recipes.

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Speaker 1: So here's the question I have for you, because I

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Speaker 1: you know, i'd like to think that when I was

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Speaker 1: at Cable Town and the network that's owned by Cabletown. Figure,

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Speaker 1: I might as well use a little thirty Rock reference

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Speaker 1: there is I never thought I was. You know what

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Speaker 1: I would say is I never thought I was holding

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Speaker 1: things back, but I might have rounded the edges in

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Speaker 1: order to sort of keep the peace right. You had

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Speaker 1: to keep the peace sometimes internally, keep the peace with

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Speaker 1: you know, if if I got in a booking problem,

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Speaker 1: that could hurt the morning show, it could hurt an

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Speaker 1: evening show. You know, all sorts of issues. And yet

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Speaker 1: you know that description you just made, You know, I

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Speaker 1: both appreciate it, but it's also an indictment on traditional meat.

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Speaker 1: You Right now, we're in a tough spot where, Look,

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Speaker 1: I know the individual journalists want to do more, and

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Speaker 1: they do feel as if they're being held back. Not

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Speaker 1: maybe sometimes it's even not specifically, it's just more the

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Speaker 1: climates holding them back. Why do you think so many

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Speaker 1: of them are struggling to break out of it?

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Speaker 2: I think there are a couple of things going on.

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Speaker 2: I mean, first, the Internet broke politics and it broke media,

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Speaker 2: and we are still in an era of trying to

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Speaker 2: figure out what are the ways to operate? What are

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Speaker 2: the rules? You know, from in politics, how do you

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Speaker 2: run primary elections? How do you draw district lines? But

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Speaker 2: in media, the old model of advertising got demonetized. Then

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Speaker 2: you can currently have this technological tsunami where one of

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Speaker 2: the reasons Walter Cronkite was the most trusted person in

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Speaker 2: America in nineteen seventies there were only three networks, so

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Speaker 2: there was no competition. Nobody was beating them with a

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Speaker 2: tweet to some weirdo fact. There weren't, you know, Joe

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Speaker 2: Rogan and Splinter competition things.

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Speaker 1: You might add Dick Caviott and Tom Schneider right, well,

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Speaker 1: they were the closest thing we had to some cultural critics,

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Speaker 1: at least on the telep.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but at six thirty PM, you and your family

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Speaker 2: were watching one of three networks, and so the instinct

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Speaker 2: for a network at that point is appeal to the

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Speaker 2: whole nation, play it down the middle of the fairway,

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Speaker 2: go slow, and kind of enforce the norms. And subsequently,

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Speaker 2: people who didn't want to watch news wanted to just

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Speaker 2: watch sports. All right, we lost them to ESPN, and

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Speaker 2: people who felt that either Fox was less biased or

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Speaker 2: frankly more likely to affirm their beliefs went there, and

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Speaker 2: the media used to inform us and we would accept

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Speaker 2: the set of facts. Now we go where the facts

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Speaker 2: are what we want them to be. And so I think,

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Speaker 2: if I look at you, you kind of came of

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Speaker 2: greatness just at the time when the cronkite Russer opportunity

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Speaker 2: was was being foreclosed by a combination of technology of

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Speaker 2: the Internet, of the way politics were changing. Where I

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Speaker 2: see the extraordinary opportunity now is in the sub stack,

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Speaker 2: is in the podcasters, the people who were kind of

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Speaker 2: building their own audiences, and the viewers like me and

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Speaker 2: you who are who were putting together our own you know,

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Speaker 2: the the Bruce Daily News is, you know, Noah Smith

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Speaker 2: and you and Derek tom True all over the place.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's funny I find the substack feed. I

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Speaker 1: had this conversation with Brad Todd. You know we're not related,

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Speaker 1: but if you told me, if we go back seven

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Speaker 1: or eight generations, I think we both have the Scotch Irish,

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Speaker 1: at least on my Todd's side of things. He was

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Speaker 1: talking about how you know here he is a conservative,

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Speaker 1: and he even admits he goes Substack feels like at

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Speaker 1: times quote unquote leans left. But but it's but it's

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Speaker 1: it's not an ideological lean right, if anything, and if anything, though,

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Speaker 1: it's a robust howalth the forum for debate, that's substack

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Speaker 1: feed where people occasionally post their stuff and react. It's uh,

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Speaker 1: it was like it's like a flashback to like the

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Speaker 1: first two years of Twitter.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. You look, if you if you feel like your

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Speaker 2: substack is leaning left or right, it's because you've curated

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Speaker 2: it to lean left or right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: When I do a lot of public speaking, I know

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Speaker 2: you do too, And kind of towards the end, often

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Speaker 2: people ask, well, what's your advice? And you know, my

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Speaker 2: two biggest pieces of advice. One you know, this one

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Speaker 2: is read history. Yeah, because we all have this recency bias.

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Speaker 2: It's never been this bad, but that's what they said

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Speaker 2: in the nineties, they said that in the seventies it's.

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Speaker 1: Been really very Yeah.

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Speaker 2: But the other one is balance your media diet. Take

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Speaker 2: a look who you know. If you are only reading

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Speaker 2: people you agree with and watching people you agree with,

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Speaker 2: you're not doing it right. Find people not who are

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Speaker 2: shrill and horrible, but who you think maybe get it wrong,

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Speaker 2: but boy are they thought provoking and occasionally they make

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Speaker 2: you realize you get it roll in some and that

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Speaker 2: takes that takes intentionality a lot of It's just a

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Speaker 2: lot easier to just turn on the network and it's

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Speaker 2: all right, it's all left. But I think that leads

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Speaker 2: to a much less healthy democratic dialogue.

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Speaker 1: Well, I guess the reason it's funny you say that

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Speaker 1: on the curation because I've done that. I curate very

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Speaker 1: I think. I here's what I've found it fascinating with

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Speaker 1: my different feeds is I did the same thing on Twitter.

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Speaker 1: That Twitter feed feels very right leaning. Now now I

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Speaker 1: don't know it's whether people I followed on the left

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Speaker 1: have just left right and they don't contribute, so my

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Speaker 1: feed goes that way. And you know, I feel like

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Speaker 1: a fairly I have a fairly even feed and substack

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Speaker 1: and maybe the lefties just stack more or what do

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Speaker 1: we call it restacking and that or whatever it is. So,

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Speaker 1: but it is interesting how you I will just say

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Speaker 1: there's there's a better intellectual conversation taking place in substack

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Speaker 1: than there is an other social media outlets.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think that's right, And look, let's be honest.

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Speaker 2: I mean Twitter got bought by Elon who start. Number

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Speaker 2: one thing is to make sure that his own tweets

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Speaker 2: are most visible and most seen, and at the end

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Speaker 2: of the day, you know, he paid for the microphone,

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Speaker 2: so I guess he has the right to do that.

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Speaker 2: It's definitely gone very hard to the right. I do

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Speaker 2: think some of it is the kind of left flight,

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Speaker 2: but I think some of it is the algorithm. The

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Speaker 2: algorithm's prioritization schemes make it voices on the right, which

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Speaker 2: if you go back ten years, were fewer and more

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Speaker 2: likely to be, you know, hard pressed to get through,

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Speaker 2: and now the opposite is true.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, that's for sure. Before I get into sort

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Speaker 1: of where we are, and I've got a couple of

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Speaker 1: ideas I want to throw at you get your reaction to.

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Speaker 1: But you know, look, you understand sort of the business

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Speaker 1: of Washington, and you know, when you look at the

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Speaker 1: last six months and we've seen, I guess I find

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Speaker 1: it remarkable how many titans of industry have decided buy

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Speaker 1: house is in DC. It's a stop right. Whether it's

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Speaker 1: Peter Tielmark Zuckerberg, these guys, it is in the same

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Speaker 1: way twenty years ago, it felt as if those rich

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Speaker 1: guys needed a place in New York, at place in

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Speaker 1: LA and their place in Silicon Valley. Now Washington is

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Speaker 1: a ten pole right for this. What is that meant

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Speaker 1: for the business side of Washington? What does that meant

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Speaker 1: for K Street? And are we in a situation now

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Speaker 1: where success at a firm is not bipartisan clients?

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Speaker 2: Well, I'm not sure how many clients are bipartisan in

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Speaker 2: terms of you know, one of my longest clients, one

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Speaker 2: of my favorite clients is Walmart.

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Speaker 1: They're not a partisan entity. We're by fighting. They try

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Speaker 1: really hard not to be right. Well, I guess my

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Speaker 1: better question was bipartisan firm. How hard is it to

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Speaker 1: be a bipartisan firm these days? In Washington? They used

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Speaker 1: to be the killer. That was the goal of every

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Speaker 1: successful lobbyist was the minute if it was somebody in

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Speaker 1: the right, you know, like and I saw Brian and

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Speaker 1: ballor do this a couple of years ago he went

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Speaker 1: and hired a bunch of Democrats, like I want to

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Speaker 1: own it all just in case, my guy, my side

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Speaker 1: isn't empower You saw the same thing with the Tony

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Speaker 1: Pedestas of the world. On the left side of the arm.

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Speaker 1: He was like, I got to go find me some Republicans.

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Speaker 1: Is that I feel like that's an out It feels

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Speaker 1: a tad outdated because of the way Trump operates. But

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Speaker 1: I'm curious how you read the lay of the industry

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Speaker 1: land here inside the business of DC.

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Speaker 2: Look, we're twenty we're in year twenty two of our firm.

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Speaker 2: We have eleven Republicans and eleven Democrats. We've always been

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Speaker 2: plus or minus one. It's intentional and design and we're

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Speaker 2: more effective because of it. Start with, as you know,

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Speaker 2: the pendulum swings back and forth. You know, Karl Rove

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Speaker 2: didn't say permanent majorable majority. He's a durable majority. In

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Speaker 2: two thousand and four, and two years later, the House

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Speaker 2: and the Senate had already both gone the other direction.

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Speaker 2: Obama had sixty Senate Democratic votes. They lost the House

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Speaker 2: two years later, and by twenty fourteen Republicans were controlling

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Speaker 2: the Senate. So long term, if you don't want to

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Speaker 2: feast and then famine, go back and forth, you want

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Speaker 2: to be by partisan is thought number one. Number two,

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Speaker 2: It depends who you are as a firm and as people.

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Speaker 2: I don't want ideologues at my shop. I want people.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the Republicans and Democrats have as much in

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Speaker 2: common with each other in terms of you know, some

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Speaker 2: of us are parents of three kids, and you know,

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Speaker 2: with kids, their empty nests, and it's we all like

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Speaker 2: working together. You know, with all due respect, I don't

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Speaker 2: want ideologues. I want If you're that ideological, you're probably

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Speaker 2: not going to be good in a consulting job because

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Speaker 2: you won't like half your clients because of what they

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Speaker 2: make or you know, or the their views on climate

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Speaker 2: one way or the other. We have the I think

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Speaker 2: the book was entitled the No Asshole Rule. We have

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Speaker 2: a policy of higher nice people who like working with

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Speaker 2: each other. The last thing I'd say, and I think

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Speaker 2: you probably see this too. I bet sometimes you get

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Speaker 2: some of your best Trump insights from your Democratic friends,

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Speaker 2: and sometimes you get some of your best insights on

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Speaker 2: what's happening among Democrats from Republicans. We definitely find that

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Speaker 2: when we are offering Republican insights. Yet we know these guys,

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Speaker 2: we talk to these guys, but there's a group think

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Speaker 2: and every now and then. My favorite story ever is

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Speaker 2: one of my old buddies. I know, you know David

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Speaker 2: Castignetti too. He used to be you know, he was

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Speaker 2: an early partner of mine, and there was we were

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Speaker 2: in a meeting one day, and this it was a

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Speaker 2: killer room of really you know, former staff directors, chiefs

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Speaker 2: of staff, the leadership, and Castignetti says, I think Bayer

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Speaker 2: is going to resign. And the whole room is all

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Speaker 2: these Republican royalty like, what are you talking about, dude,

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Speaker 2: And he's like, you know, he's a Catholic guy. He

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Speaker 2: just had the pope like it's no fun anymore for him.

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Speaker 2: Literally in that meeting, everybody's back. Then BlackBerry goes off.

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Speaker 2: Baier has announced he's retiring. I mean, it never happens.

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Speaker 2: That would happened ten minutes after, like a movie. And

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Speaker 2: the only problem Castignetti failed to pull a Costanza. You

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Speaker 2: need to at that point stand up, button coat, turn

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Speaker 2: around and just leave, just simply walk out.

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Speaker 1: It's truly said the mind.

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Speaker 2: I'm out right, you know, because he was looking through

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Speaker 2: a different lens. He had an insight that the rest

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Speaker 2: of us missed. So I think our clients, I mean,

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Speaker 2: right now, there's there's leaning heavier on. Who knows the

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Speaker 2: new teams, who can get in front of these guys.

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Speaker 2: It is an our, our our town house, senate, white

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Speaker 2: house that never lasts forever. And so by partisan. I

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Speaker 2: think remains both easy enough to operate. It's easier to

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Speaker 2: be an R now than a D. But it's it's

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Speaker 2: you know, we stick together.

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Speaker 1: There was the so called K Street project back in

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Speaker 1: the day that was an attempt to try to you know,

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Speaker 1: some would argue right size K Street that it had

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Speaker 1: a left lean certainly in the early oughts because of

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Speaker 1: the Clinton years, you could, I guess you could have

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Speaker 1: made that case. We see the purge taking place in

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Speaker 1: other operations. Have you felt pressure in Trump world when

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Speaker 1: it comes to to that, and if not, you have

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Speaker 1: you seen other uh vendors in this space sort of

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Speaker 1: not take a client or take a client in a

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Speaker 1: way that tries to curry favor with Trump.

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Speaker 2: Well, I certainly think everyone is mindful of whatever you

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Speaker 2: do publicly and how it may be received. I've seen

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Speaker 2: that more, you know, unlike in twenty seventeen when there

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Speaker 2: were no Trump firms or magafirms. You know, he was

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Speaker 2: he surprised the world. That's when Ballard moved up, wisely

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Speaker 2: perceiving that Ballard was really just sort of a regional guy.

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Speaker 2: You know, he's a glassy guy, you know. So that's

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Speaker 2: changed radically there's Ballard, there's Miller, there's Continental. There's a

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Speaker 2: lot of Trump firms, and there are a lot of

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Speaker 2: firms with Trump one point zero or Trump fundraiser types.

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Speaker 2: So what's really different this time is you have an

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Speaker 2: entire set of sort of swamp creatures who are very

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Speaker 2: much all Trump all the time. Now, you know, Ballard

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Speaker 2: took Harvard, so I don't see them necessarily looking away clients.

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Speaker 2: What I hear from the mar it is, first, those

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Speaker 2: guys are asking extraordinary prices, you know, just crazy numbers

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Speaker 2: and stuff that I would blush and I you know,

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Speaker 2: I'd like high numbers if I can get them, but

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Speaker 2: but numbers that are massively out of market, and their

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Speaker 2: theory is they can get they'll name check.

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Speaker 1: Somebody selling well, they're selling access. That's what they're what

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Speaker 1: basically what they're selling. Right, Hey, we can get inside

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Speaker 1: that West Wing. We'll get you a meeting with with super.

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Speaker 2: Success and a claim of knowledge. But but you know,

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Speaker 2: as you see, I forget the I forget the name

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Speaker 2: of that new club where best and just threatened to

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Speaker 2: punch the faulty in the face.

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Speaker 1: Right see the near it's near seventeen eighty nine in

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Speaker 1: the restaurant right executive briefing or whatever it is, like

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Speaker 1: five hundred thousand dollars to join that.

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Speaker 2: There is kind of a new What I've seen in

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Speaker 2: near one of Trump two point zero is, you know,

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Speaker 2: there is now this whole group quick to say we

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Speaker 2: are uniquely capable of getting folks in. They're charging huge

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Speaker 2: amounts of rates. You know, as judged by Harvard, I

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Speaker 2: don't believe you hire these guys. And I don't know

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Speaker 2: anybody who hired them and somehow got an exemption from

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Speaker 2: taxes tariffs. There are no exemptions from tariffs. But given

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Speaker 2: that right now, the Republicans in Congress are so subservient

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Speaker 2: to the president, they are so whatever, you know how

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Speaker 2: high mister President, I'm finding that those with long standing,

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Speaker 2: deep Hill relationships maybe have a little bit less that

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Speaker 2: you can offer in the short term because they're not

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Speaker 2: passing laws, they're declaring emergencies, they're putting out executive orders,

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Speaker 2: they're doing tariffs. We found when the one big beautiful

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Speaker 2: bill came out, the big tax reconciliation, we were super

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Speaker 2: busy and a lot of the newer firms, or a

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Speaker 2: lot of the only Trump administration firms didn't have the experience,

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Speaker 2: the knowledge, the reach whatever to be as effective. And

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Speaker 2: I tend to think again the pendulum swings that we

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Speaker 2: were not going to be in a unitary executive four

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Speaker 2: year Congress.

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Speaker 1: Doesn't matter.

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Speaker 2: It comes and it goes. But the first six months

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Speaker 2: were pretty heavy duty out of the gate executive ranch.

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Speaker 1: You brought up Miller in there, Jeff Miller, who was

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Speaker 1: in some ways, you know, he had he was close

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Speaker 1: to the former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Does Mike Johnson. You know,

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Speaker 1: most speakers have sort of you know, former staffers that

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Speaker 1: that become players on K Street and it's you know,

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Speaker 1: there might be some people listening to this going good God,

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Speaker 1: is this how it works? Yes, this is exactly how

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Speaker 1: it works, folks. Mike Johnson does he have a is

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Speaker 1: there a is does he have a K Street go to? Yet?

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Speaker 1: Is there people that sell themselves as hey, we're the

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Speaker 1: Mike Johnson firm.

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Speaker 2: Well, look, I'm sure there are. There are folks who

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Speaker 2: worked for Speaker Johnson in the past or even as

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Speaker 2: speaker and have rolled out now back downtown. Mister Miller

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Speaker 2: did an effective job kind of transitioning over. There's not

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Speaker 2: so much of a of a Johnson diaspora yet just

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Speaker 2: because he's kind of been newer, and it's it's still

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Speaker 2: still in the truntump era. But look at the end

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Speaker 2: of the day, it's I think often people unfairly suggest

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Speaker 2: somehow that's unique to lobbying. I mean, how many media

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Speaker 2: guys do you know who go into pr firms?

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Speaker 1: Why?

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Speaker 2: Because they know how it works on the other side,

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Speaker 2: because they've developed relationships of trust. They understand, Hey, if

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Speaker 2: you want to talk to Chuck Todd at NBC, like,

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Speaker 2: what what are the things that resonate with him? How

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Speaker 2: does he think?

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Speaker 1: You know?

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Speaker 2: In the same way that lots of the regulator types

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Speaker 2: end up going to law firms. It's you know who flies.

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Speaker 2: You're in my United Airlines flight to the West Coast,

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Speaker 2: probably an ex air Force pilot. Experience matters, and it

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Speaker 2: does on K Street just like it does in every

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Speaker 2: other walk of life.

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Speaker 1: What you do well is trend spot and we've got

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Speaker 1: some interesting trends that I want to dig into some

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Speaker 1: of them. Actually, by the time this airs, I'll have

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Speaker 1: put out a substack and the focus of my weekly substack,

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Speaker 1: and mine this week is is sort of on it's

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Speaker 1: picking up on yet again more global instability. We've seen

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Speaker 1: what happened in Japan, We've seen what happened in France,

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Speaker 1: and I guess I put it all back at Bregsit

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Speaker 1: right that breaks. It was the shot heard around the

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Speaker 1: world that breaks. It was the moment. And I'm curious

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Speaker 1: if you agree with this statement as I've made it,

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Speaker 1: and it's I bring you on here to disagree smartly

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Speaker 1: trust me, Well you know smart I'm kidding, which is

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Speaker 1: it's pro David Cameron probably made the most catastrophic era

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Speaker 1: of a modern leader that didn't have to do with

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Speaker 1: war in the last fifty years.

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Speaker 2: So I tend to see Bregsit along with Trump, as

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Speaker 2: actually downstream. And to me, the upstream is the great

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Speaker 2: financial collapse. And to me still to you goes back

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Speaker 2: to nine. I go back to that when all of

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Speaker 2: a sudden it's like, oh wow, you know, the elites,

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Speaker 2: the experts, just like with the post nine to eleven

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Speaker 2: Iraq war. Okay, we thought they had figured it all

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Speaker 2: out because the first Iraq War went pretty well for

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Speaker 2: the United States. But it's not going so well this time.

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Speaker 2: So we no longer have unlimited confidence in war and

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Speaker 2: peace on those guys, suddenly we have you know, we

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Speaker 2: thought that the regulators were keeping an eye on things,

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Speaker 2: but all of a sudden that were nearly going to

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Speaker 2: a great depression, and we have to bail out Wall Street,

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Speaker 2: but we're not taking care of people. That to me,

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Speaker 2: you saw populism kind of cut in both directions. You

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Speaker 2: had the occupy movement get born, and you had the

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Speaker 2: Tea Party movement get more born. Now you and I

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Speaker 2: know all of those are You could argue you go

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Speaker 2: back to Ross Perrot, and you could go to Pat

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Speaker 2: Buchanan and Howard Dean. But to me, the global event

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Speaker 2: in the twenty first century that really began, the major

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Speaker 2: break in people's confidence with the rules and the parties

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Speaker 2: and the systems, including leading to the populism that said

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Speaker 2: let's break up Brexit was GFC.

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Speaker 1: There's a reason results matter more than promises, just like

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Speaker 1: there's a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury

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Speaker 1: law firm. For the last thirty five years, they've recovered

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Speaker 1: twenty five billion dollars for more than half a million clients.

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Speaker 1: It includes cases where insurance companies offered next to nothing

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Speaker 1: just hoping to get away with paying as little as possible.

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Speaker 1: Morgan and Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact,

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Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, one client was awarded twenty six million dollars,

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Speaker 1: which was a staggering forty times the amount that the

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Speaker 1: insurance company originally offered. That original offer six hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty thousand dollars twenty six million, six hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars. So with more than one thousand lawyers across

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Speaker 1: the country, they know how to deliver for everyday people.

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Speaker 1: If you're injured, you need a lawyer, you need somebody

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Speaker 1: to get your back. Check out for the People dot com,

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Speaker 1: Slash podcast or dial pound law, pound five to nine

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Speaker 1: law on your cell phone. And remember all law firms

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Speaker 1: are not the same. So check out Morgan and Morgan.

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Speaker 1: Their fee is free unless they win. Look, I think

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Speaker 1: that's a that's a compelling case. And what you're arguing

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Speaker 1: then is so at Cameron didn't have to make the referendum, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean, had he not done the referendum, then we

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Speaker 1: just postponed the break. You know that the that the

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Speaker 1: that the that the opportunity for the revolt would have

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Speaker 1: come somewhere else.

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Speaker 2: And whether it would have been technically as a Brexit

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Speaker 2: or not. We're seeing populism, and we've been seeing populism

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Speaker 2: for the last fifteen years all around the world. Rising.

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Speaker 2: People don't trust the parties, the institutions, the establishment. They

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Speaker 2: don't think that the institutional players have their back. They

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Speaker 2: think the institutional players are self dealing. Free markets, well,

433
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,439
Speaker 2: who's that help? Free trade, well, who's that help? I

434
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 2: used to believe, even I still tend to believe it

435
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 2: ultimately helps more people. But the winter circles were getting smaller.

436
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 2: And if free trade benefits everybody, but you really concentrate

437
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 2: the winners, but you then socialize the losers, as we

438
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,680
Speaker 2: saw after GFC, you get populism.

439
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 1: You know, it's I feel like we don't fully appreciate

440
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 1: how good global free trade has been, and I think

441
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 1: then we're going to realize what we've lost in the

442
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:32,960
Speaker 1: next year. You know, sometimes it's as simple as you're

443
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 1: not going to be able to get a peach anytime

444
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 1: you want it, right, You're not gonna be able to

445
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:38,959
Speaker 1: get certain fruit and vegetables anytime you want it. And

446
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 1: you know, when we were kids, there were certain things

447
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:43,879
Speaker 1: you just didn't get certain times a year at the

448
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 1: grocery store because there's no way to the time of year, right,

449
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,160
Speaker 1: there's no way they could get it there. With global

450
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 1: free trade and with the speed of travel and all

451
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 1: of those things, we don't realize how lucky we've gotten it.

452
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:00,119
Speaker 1: It's sort of like I feel this way about the

453
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:05,760
Speaker 1: vaccine movement, the anti vax movement, which is we've lost

454
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 1: the people that there's a lost memory of what quarantines were. Like,

455
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 1: you know, my dad would tell me stories he was

456
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 1: one of these kids that got everything, the measles and

457
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 1: the mumps, so his house was always they were always quarantined,

458
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:23,639
Speaker 1: and like that was just a that happened in communities

459
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 1: all over the So it is also why there was

460
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 1: such a eighty twenty and I still think it's an

461
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 1: eighty twenty issue on vacs, but it is our long

462
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 1: term memory. We don't we forget what we didn't have.

463
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 1: And you know, I hate sounding like the old man,

464
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 1: you don't realize how good you have it now. But

465
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 1: I really think when it comes to access to just

466
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 1: whether it's fruits and vegetables or cheap technology, that's what

467
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:56,119
Speaker 1: we've gotten and we don't fully appreciate it, or we

468
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 1: didn't fully understand why it was cheap. I think that's

469
00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 1: a riddle that I haven't solved.

470
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:03,719
Speaker 2: Well, here's the door number three for you. Because I

471
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 2: agree with you the benefits for consumers and producers of

472
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:12,120
Speaker 2: free trade, the benefits of vaccines are overwhelming and obvious.

473
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 2: At the same time, I do tend to think that

474
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:22,680
Speaker 2: we tend to also overseell virtues and underappreciate sort of

475
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 2: the frictions or the externalities of things. So free trade

476
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:28,359
Speaker 2: is great. But if you and I were from a

477
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 2: town where the factory got moved to China or Mexico

478
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 2: and nothing got moved in but a dollar store and fentanyl,

479
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 2: we wouldn't you know, and then the problem would happen.

480
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:41,439
Speaker 2: Chuck and you and I know this.

481
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 1: We know these people.

482
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 2: They were always dying to get on your show. Is

483
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:47,479
Speaker 2: they'd come on and they would cite some AEI study

484
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 2: that is substantively correct about how the GDP grows. But

485
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 2: at the macro level, we're seeing a lot of winning.

486
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 2: At the micro level, there's a lot of losing. And

487
00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,679
Speaker 2: people ignored those folks and told them they just didn't understand.

488
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:04,400
Speaker 2: He can even on hesitant vaccine because I tend to think,

489
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 2: you know, vaccines are so overwhelmingly powerful, but in a

490
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 2: lot of ways. Read Marty McCarry, the new head of

491
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 2: the FDA's book called Blind Spots. It's a wonderful book

492
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 2: a year or two ago. He's not a magahead, he's

493
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 2: a legit doctor. But he points out that the health

494
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 2: establishment routinely will overseell like, for example, the way to

495
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 2: avoid allergies is total abstinence from peanuts. We did that

496
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 2: in the UK, did that, and here you need an

497
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 2: epipan and the rest of the world you don't. Why

498
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 2: because that was the exact wrong advice. We over prescribed antibiotics.

499
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,320
Speaker 2: A whole generation of women got screwed out of really

500
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 2: important hormone replacement therapy because of one wrong you know,

501
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 2: or overread study. But what happens is if you question, hey,

502
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 2: are we sure we saw that with the pandemic? Are

503
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 2: we sure there aren't a lot of false positives? Maybe

504
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:58,119
Speaker 2: it's not as deadly as as some of the people

505
00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:01,160
Speaker 2: in the news are saying. Those people, Well, suddenly we're told, well,

506
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:05,719
Speaker 2: you don't believe in science, and we so vilify our opponents,

507
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 2: who often are asking very important and very legitimate questions,

508
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:12,160
Speaker 2: and we so want things to be one hundred percent right,

509
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 2: that we've lost a tolerance and a space for the

510
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 2: fact that things can be overwhelmingly good but not universally good.

511
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,399
Speaker 2: And if we don't deal with the things that aren't

512
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 2: great about it, we're going to grow those who are

513
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: skeptical of us and of our institutions.

514
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 1: What do you make that nobody's gotten this right? You know,

515
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 1: it's not just our country. There's a lot of successful

516
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 1: Western countries that have just not gotten this right either

517
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 1: not able to help those that have been displaced, Like,

518
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 1: nobody seems to have gotten this right.

519
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 2: Well, you mean trade, let's start with trade. Yeah, it's

520
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 2: so there again, it's it's nobody's got it perfect. I

521
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,639
Speaker 2: think you know, look at Singapore. It's a tiny little

522
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:57,919
Speaker 2: island with no natural resources.

523
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 1: That lands are different to me, island mentalities like you

524
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 1: know Australia and New Zealand. I mean, when you're in Singapore,

525
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:07,639
Speaker 1: you know whether it's big island or small island. I

526
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:12,120
Speaker 1: don't know. I I island the island mentality. You don't

527
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 1: live on an island if you're not willing to people

528
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 1: that live on some sort of island nation understand that

529
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:22,199
Speaker 1: they're kind of in this together. That's always been my

530
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 1: sense that there's a slight difference.

531
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 2: But yeah, I guess I'm not sure I'm going to

532
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:30,879
Speaker 2: agree totally. My mind's starting to go to, like, how

533
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,680
Speaker 2: but Japan and you know, how about creeks and I don't.

534
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 1: Know enoughing about don't know how big of a country

535
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:37,160
Speaker 1: do you get before it's not an island mentality, which

536
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 1: would be Australia for instance, but anyway geographically meaning but anyway,

537
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 1: go ahead.

538
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 2: So I guess I nobody's gotten it perfect overall. I mean,

539
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 2: you know, here's kind of a thought experiment. Go find

540
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 2: anybody who hates trade or whatever, and say, if I'm

541
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 2: going to have you, you're you're going to be reborn

542
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 2: fifty years ago, one hundred years ago. I'm not going

543
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 2: to tell you whether you're a man or woman, what race,

544
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 2: or whatever. I can't think of anybody on the planet

545
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 2: who wouldn't want to be reborn today. I'd like to

546
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 2: think that everybody would like to be re you know,

547
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 2: start again right here in the United States. I do

548
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 2: worry sometimes, Chuck that while fifty years ago, I think

549
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 2: anybody on the planet would say, well, I would love

550
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 2: to be there, you know, some of our internal divisions,

551
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 2: some of the nastiness, some of our inability to get

552
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:25,959
Speaker 2: out of our own way to try to find the

553
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:29,239
Speaker 2: common ground that is required under the constitution created by

554
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 2: the Founders to solve problems. It's it's feeling a little frustrating.

555
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 2: But then again, go back to read history. It's recency biased, chuck, go,

556
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 2: but you want to live in the seventies, knock yourself out, buddy.

557
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 2: You think it was better then, no way. The economy

558
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 2: was rougher. Then we were going through stagflation, God willing,

559
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 2: We're not about to go through that again. That looks

560
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 2: a little troublesome. Well, let's let's keep our figures crossed

561
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 2: on that one. But you know, the threat of nuclear

562
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 2: war with the Soviet Union, the murder of George Floyd

563
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 2: was scary. Read about the murder of doctor King and

564
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 2: Bobby Kennedy. Vietnam's more divisive than anything we're dealing with today.

565
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 1: You know.

566
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 2: And even like you know, for gay lesbian Americans, the

567
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 2: anti trans stuff I find nasty and I find just

568
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 2: unnecessarily harsh and cruel. But fifty years ago, we were

569
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 2: debating the right to marry someone you love. There were

570
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 2: some states that made it illegal to be gay or lesbian,

571
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 2: and thank god, we're only debating now who gets to

572
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 2: play in which sports and use which bathrooms. And it's

573
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 2: you know, it's not where I want it to be,

574
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:36,000
Speaker 2: and it's not where you want it to be, but

575
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 2: it's a lot better than where it was.

576
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 1: Let's talk about sort of a few things. Because you're

577
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 1: really good, I have a sense that you're going to

578
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 1: be read how soon before I get one of your

579
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 1: risk you know, the six charts on the various risks

580
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 1: that are out there, because I feel like we're getting

581
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 1: close to that, and so let's talk about recession risks.

582
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 1: It feels like there's a lot of flashing yellow lights.

583
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 1: I'm not going to say there's a flashing red light

584
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 1: anywhere yet, but there's a lot of flashing yellow lights.

585
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 1: Turns out, for instance, let's talk about this read the

586
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 1: correction of the jobs numbers. First, it turns out the

587
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 1: vibes were more accurate than the data in twenty twenty four.

588
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:18,479
Speaker 1: And this is a sense always trust the public. The

589
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 1: perception of the economy is what the economy is. Because

590
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 1: perception especially in the economy.

591
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 2: Is reality, Well, that's the wisdom of the crowd ultimately.

592
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 1: I mean, the the.

593
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:38,960
Speaker 2: Market is the ultimate weighing in of everything and everyone,

594
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 2: and the hype, the hype cycle people and the people

595
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 2: who are just looking for good copy and all get

596
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 2: ultimately blended into the giant blender that is the market.

597
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 2: You know you mentioned when am I going to do

598
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 2: one old risks. I actually have my list and maybe

599
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 2: two weeks ago, and I found it such a list,

600
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 2: such a doomer read that I've threw it aside and

601
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 2: I decided because it was towards the end of the

602
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,480
Speaker 2: August recess and I instead just wanted to do one

603
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 2: on sort of I call it no regrets, But what

604
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 2: are things people regret?

605
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 1: Because if you know what you're going to regret, I

606
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 1: like you no regrets one right by age? You know

607
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 1: what you quoted Charlie Munger who said I want to

608
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 1: know where I'm going to die so I can avoid

609
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 1: it for a location or whatever.

610
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, So in that regard, if you know what you're

611
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 2: going to regret, twenty years from now, we'll start doing

612
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 2: the things so that you don't end up in the

613
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 2: position where you have to regret it on the economy,

614
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,800
Speaker 2: it's a great question. I've successfully called ten of the

615
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:44,720
Speaker 2: last two recessions. I definitely don't know. I have had

616
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 2: success investing every month into an index fund, the Well

617
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 2: Diversified s and P five hundred index fund, and doing

618
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 2: it every single month since I got married, So that's

619
00:32:56,480 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 2: a long time. Every other investment has not been as successful.

620
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 1: Is that.

621
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 2: Sometimes I guess right, sometimes I guess wrong, But it's

622
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 2: it's really hard to know. You could see a scenario

623
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 2: where the tariffs are slowing things down and the immigration

624
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 2: is driving up prices, and you know, and boy, there's

625
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 2: plenty of folks, whether they're rooting against the president or

626
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,640
Speaker 2: they're always rooting against a president, there's just a lot

627
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 2: of you know, I read a great sociological study. People

628
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 2: who propose a doom are seen as smarter and more

629
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 2: likely to be read than people who are kind of

630
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:35,719
Speaker 2: more calm.

631
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 1: And whether whether the facts back them up or.

632
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 2: Not, it's right. And the some the evolution type people say,

633
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 2: well that the evolutionary thinker people, by the way, I

634
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 2: believe in evolution. For the people who point to evolutionary

635
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 2: theories say humans are wired to look for danger, because

636
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 2: if you don't pay attention to lion eat you, and

637
00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 2: you're less likely to react as viscerally to something that

638
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 2: doesn't seem threatening. And so, as you know, in the

639
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 2: media business, you need people to watch, need people listening to,

640
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:09,879
Speaker 2: people to click, and if you give them kind of hey,

641
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:12,439
Speaker 2: things are probably fine. Well, I'm not going to read

642
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 2: that story.

643
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 1: If you are three.

644
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:16,839
Speaker 2: Things you need to do before the next stagflation, you're

645
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 2: totally going to click on that because it you know,

646
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:19,600
Speaker 2: it's a risk.

647
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:24,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, another plane lands safely at National News at eleven. Right.

648
00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 1: You know, it's not something that's ever in the uh,

649
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 1: that's ever ever in the promo. But look, you you

650
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 1: are looking at this for a living. I mean, it

651
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 1: does feel as if, well, here's the ultimate uncertainty, what

652
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:42,880
Speaker 1: are the future of the tariffs. I assume that if

653
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:49,319
Speaker 1: he loses in court, a Republican Congress gives him the

654
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:52,359
Speaker 1: whatever whatever. If he does lose at the Supreme Court,

655
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:56,480
Speaker 1: Roberts's rationale is going to be that it, you know,

656
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:59,320
Speaker 1: Congress has to do this, which means if Congress essentially

657
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 1: give see him the authority to do this, then he

658
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:04,879
Speaker 1: can sort of keep these in place. Is that the

659
00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 1: most likely way where we're headed in your mind, you know,

660
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:13,439
Speaker 1: assuming the Supreme Court upholds all these other lower court

661
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:15,400
Speaker 1: ruling on the legality of the tariffs.

662
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 2: Well, I think it's even easier than that, Chuck, There's

663
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 2: lots IEPA was never used for tariffs before there is

664
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 2: a Congress has for decades and decades been passing legislation

665
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:33,400
Speaker 2: giving tariff and trade regulatory authorities to the executive branch.

666
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 2: There's section two thirty two. There's section three oh one.

667
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 2: Those are the ones Trump used in his first term.

668
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:40,800
Speaker 2: There's section one twenty two and three thirty eight and

669
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:44,239
Speaker 2: two oh one, like, it's all there. What he loved

670
00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:47,800
Speaker 2: about IEPA was it didn't require doing work, it didn't

671
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 2: require a process. You could just say, I hereby claims

672
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:54,360
Speaker 2: there's an emergency, and here's what we're going to do

673
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 2: in response to it. So my macro takeaway is there

674
00:35:57,520 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 2: will be tariffs. Whether Congress does anything or not doesn't matter.

675
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:04,279
Speaker 2: He's got the president has all the tools, and he's

676
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 2: got all the conviction. Tariffs are his ginsu knife. They

677
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 2: are the solution to every problem if you want to

678
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 2: raise revenue, because deficits are high, tariffs raise revenue if

679
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 2: you want to reindustrialized manufacturing because we're over dependent on

680
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:20,279
Speaker 2: Chinese manufacturing. That's what he says tariffs will do. They're

681
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:23,600
Speaker 2: getting industrial Investmenty're getting investment in the Midwest. They're helping.

682
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 2: They got in Mexico to get some religion on fentanyl

683
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:28,799
Speaker 2: to some degree, and on the southern border to a

684
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 2: significant degree. Brazil's prosecuting his boy Bolsonaro, and he's like,

685
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 2: we're going to hit those guys with tariffs. He threatened

686
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:40,919
Speaker 2: to putin with more tariffs, and India for that matter too.

687
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 2: Vis A Viv purchases a secondary oil, but he hasn't

688
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 2: ultimately pulled the trigger on that. He's got all the

689
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:50,759
Speaker 2: authorities he needs, and regardless of what the Supreme Court

690
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:55,160
Speaker 2: says about this one statute he's been using, he'll just

691
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:57,360
Speaker 2: pivot and he'll shift if he's got a cops.

692
00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:00,120
Speaker 1: What you're saying is there are other ways he can

693
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:04,759
Speaker 1: essentially pull a lever and essentially then okay, now me

694
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 1: sue me over using this Emergency Act essentially.

695
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:12,279
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, but he doesn't. There are several trade statutes

696
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 2: where the lawsuits have happened. They just require the executive

697
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 2: branch to do a little bit more work in advance.

698
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:21,359
Speaker 2: Trump liked the fact that by the end of Q

699
00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 2: one he could, you know, liberation Day everywhere. He thought

700
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:28,799
Speaker 2: it was a shortcut, and it's you know, we'll see

701
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:31,840
Speaker 2: what the Supreme Court says. Remember too, Chuck, Remember President

702
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:35,280
Speaker 2: Biden was going to relieve a half a trillion dollars

703
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:39,360
Speaker 2: of student debt based upon some emergency powers relating to COVID.

704
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 2: Now the Court said, no, Well, you got to take

705
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 2: your mind all the way back. This is ancient history

706
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:47,920
Speaker 2: when Republicans believed that the power of the purse resided

707
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 2: with Congress. So last year and Biden law, he said,

708
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:53,920
Speaker 2: you don't think I could do it? Sue me. They

709
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:54,399
Speaker 2: sued him.

710
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:54,840
Speaker 1: He lost.

711
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 2: Biden didn't have the power to do it. But after

712
00:37:57,120 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 2: that day he still forgave a hundred eighty four billion

713
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:04,879
Speaker 2: dollars of student debt. How other laws, you know, a

714
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,360
Speaker 2: piecemeal here and there. He couldn't do the one big

715
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:10,759
Speaker 2: massive debt relief that he had kind of had structured.

716
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 2: I think when Trump loses in court, you know, if

717
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:15,719
Speaker 2: he loses, because he was trying to use a law

718
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 2: from seventeen ninety eight he'll just use a different law.

719
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 2: His team will continue to flex and pivot. The one

720
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 2: where I see least ability to move is impellment. And

721
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:29,280
Speaker 2: maybe these pocket recisions that I think are are are

722
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:32,880
Speaker 2: well they have been launched that could lead to a shutdown.

723
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 2: I'm assuming that law is so black and white that

724
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 2: they're going to say the administration can't refuse to spend

725
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:42,279
Speaker 2: because the law that says a president's not allowed to

726
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:44,960
Speaker 2: refuse to spend. And I don't know of a different

727
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:48,439
Speaker 2: law that they can use to impound.

728
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 1: I can't remember the last time we had a Democratic

729
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:56,440
Speaker 1: minority sort of leaning into the idea of forcing the shutdown,

730
00:38:58,800 --> 00:38:59,400
Speaker 1: can you uh?

731
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, so there was a shutdown recall at

732
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:07,400
Speaker 2: after the mid terms in twenty eighteen.

733
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 1: Trump was sure, but he was fighting with his own

734
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:11,800
Speaker 1: party over it. It was his own party. It wasn't

735
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 1: the test he was but.

736
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 2: The Dems were certainly and they shouldn't have been, but

737
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 2: they weren't there looking to bail him out.

738
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 1: No, I mean, obviously with both, you know, but that

739
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:22,760
Speaker 1: was that he couldn't agree with his own party.

740
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 2: Well, so what's fascinating to me on this one is

741
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:29,760
Speaker 2: Deam's first believe in government. Dems don't want the government

742
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 2: to be shut down. They're unhappy that they cut a

743
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 2: deal with the Republicans, and then through impowment, the administration says, yeah,

744
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 2: we're not going to follow that deal. So if I'm

745
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 2: a Democrat, why would I ever cut a deal.

746
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 1: Oh, I don't see any incentive for them to cut

747
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:45,319
Speaker 1: a deal with these guys, considering because of recisions.

748
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 2: Well, but here's the question. So if you don't cut

749
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 2: a deal and they just you don't do a cr

750
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:55,879
Speaker 2: so you don't continue as spending as is. And Trump says,

751
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:59,279
Speaker 2: we've decided these are the non essential workers. And to

752
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 2: the non essential workers, let me say here's what we suggest.

753
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 2: Find a new job. The taxpayers shouldn't be paying people

754
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 2: who are doing non essential work. Government should be a

755
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:13,000
Speaker 2: business of essentialism. And that's it. So if you don't

756
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:16,239
Speaker 2: do something essential, go find a job somewhere else that's

757
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 2: essential to somebody else. And then Trump will say, and

758
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:21,719
Speaker 2: we're going to pay essential workers. We're going to pay

759
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:24,960
Speaker 2: the military, we're gonna pay ice. You might say, well,

760
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:26,800
Speaker 2: you're not allowed to pay them. And that's the reason

761
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:29,280
Speaker 2: you're not allowed to pay them, because in nineteen eighty.

762
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 2: Jimmy Carter's Attorney General, Ben Siveletti said, if you pay,

763
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:37,920
Speaker 2: if you pay anyone during a shutdown, that would violate

764
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 2: the Anti Impellment Act. Well, we know what the administration

765
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:44,080
Speaker 2: thinks of the Anti Impellment Act. So I think there's

766
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 2: a little bit of a worry that if you're the

767
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 2: Dems and you stand up, it's those two point zero

768
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 2: They're like, great, we don't need to ever reopen fill

769
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:56,400
Speaker 2: in the blank, hut or Department of Education.

770
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:00,319
Speaker 1: That's the I get it. I know that was the

771
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:04,359
Speaker 1: worry in March. I wonder if that is as big

772
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 1: of a worry this time because they've just been just

773
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:10,360
Speaker 1: so routed, if you will, and so many and sobody,

774
00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 1: you know, look at the re redistrict thing, look at

775
00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 1: you know, on some of these other things with ice.

776
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 1: I mean, I I don't and that's do. I think

777
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:22,799
Speaker 1: there are seven senators who will not want to do this.

778
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 1: I do. Eventually they may have the stomach for it

779
00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 1: for a week or two, but they won't have the

780
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:28,319
Speaker 1: stomach for it for more than that.

781
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, Look as always, I mean, what it would take

782
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 2: is it'll take some small number of Republicans and Frankly,

783
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:37,440
Speaker 2: you and I could identify them who would agree with

784
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 2: the Democrats to cut a deal of no pocket recisions.

785
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:42,760
Speaker 2: That's thing rule. But that would be enough.

786
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 1: And I think that in the Obamacare subsidies, which a

787
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:49,839
Speaker 1: bunch of Republicans secretly really actually went back. Now after

788
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:52,760
Speaker 1: the Medicaid, I mean, the one big beautiful bill's already

789
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 1: done some damage. They don't want a second punch in

790
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:55,800
Speaker 1: the gut.

791
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:58,759
Speaker 2: Brizzio says, that's the single biggest risk, as you know.

792
00:41:58,840 --> 00:41:59,959
Speaker 1: To Republicans holding.

793
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 2: So there's a deal to be had, but the administration

794
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 2: has to give permission otherwise how do we get it

795
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 2: voted on. That's one reform, by the way, i'd love

796
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:13,920
Speaker 2: to have. I don't know that it's necessarily an Internet

797
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 2: era reform needed that that the need for it is

798
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 2: occasioned by the existence of the Internet, like some other

799
00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 2: things I was talking about. But in my opinion, things

800
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:26,360
Speaker 2: ought to get votes that you ought to be something

801
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 2: that has the potential to get a majority vote, ought

802
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:32,360
Speaker 2: to have an uproar down. You know, let's have a

803
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:35,839
Speaker 2: democratic process if you're allowed to vote no. But to

804
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:38,319
Speaker 2: not have to vote on something that, particularly if it's

805
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:40,719
Speaker 2: past the other chamber, for example, you ought to be

806
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 2: required to vote on it.

807
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:53,480
Speaker 1: No, I mean, this is what drives me crazy. And tariffs.

808
00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:56,400
Speaker 1: I want to see everybody. I want everybody on the

809
00:42:56,440 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 1: record you're going to raise taxes on every consumer good

810
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 1: we imported to this country. I want to see you

811
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:02,319
Speaker 1: vote on the record in this.

812
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:05,160
Speaker 2: What's funny about that, chuck, though, is the reason past

813
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:07,680
Speaker 2: congresses gave this authority to the administration.

814
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 1: We know why they did, Yeah, go ahead.

815
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:13,800
Speaker 2: To cut tariffs because you know, there's so many narrower

816
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:16,839
Speaker 2: constituencies that a lot of these guys would kind of

817
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:20,239
Speaker 2: hope yes on the trade deal, would vote no. No.

818
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 1: This was the joke that the idea was, well, we

819
00:43:22,600 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 1: gave it to the president because we figured the freest

820
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:27,759
Speaker 1: trader among all three branches of government would be the

821
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:28,920
Speaker 1: office of the Presidency.

822
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 2: Oops, well that that was true until it wasn't right.

823
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:39,279
Speaker 1: Let's do you're so good at unintended consequences? This rate

824
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:43,480
Speaker 1: of the factory in Georgia with the South Korean workers,

825
00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:53,920
Speaker 1: and this feels like a a something that let's just say,

826
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:56,759
Speaker 1: an action happened before there was any thought behind it.

827
00:43:57,400 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 1: This feels like this is going to do. We already

828
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 1: have a South Korean government that's a mess right now.

829
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 1: They have their own internal issues. They've speaking of instability

830
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 1: in Western democracies. South Korea is right there with Japan

831
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:13,840
Speaker 1: and the UK, France, you know, all these countries that

832
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 1: are suffering right now with sort of a form of

833
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:23,000
Speaker 1: polarization that we have. But what's the aunttended consequence of that,

834
00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:25,839
Speaker 1: Because I look at this, here's here's the president going

835
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 1: around begging for foreign companies to bring their manufacturing into

836
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 1: the United States, and he'll lighten up on some of

837
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:35,040
Speaker 1: the tariffs, he'll lighten up on some of the on

838
00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:39,799
Speaker 1: some of those things. And here Hyundai's doing that, and

839
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:42,840
Speaker 1: now you may get a rise of anti americanism in

840
00:44:42,840 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 1: South Korea that could really harm us in ways we

841
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 1: haven't fully appreciated.

842
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, look, what I think Vice President Vance would say

843
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:55,360
Speaker 2: is that, you know, it's not complicated. They want big

844
00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:59,600
Speaker 2: investments in the United States where American workers are running

845
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:02,799
Speaker 2: the fact are manning the machines, and that's you know,

846
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:04,560
Speaker 2: you don't have a lot of Americans work in the

847
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:08,839
Speaker 2: machines in soul or in other countries around the world.

848
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 2: That's their theory of the case. But everything's a trade

849
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 2: off to your point. The one the substeck I did

850
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 2: this past weekend was taking a look at housing and construction.

851
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:20,360
Speaker 2: And you know, if we the best in the secretary

852
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:23,279
Speaker 2: best and said they made declare a housing emergency, well

853
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 2: what could they do? Well, if you really want to

854
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:27,239
Speaker 2: have more housing built, you could lower the tariffs on

855
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:29,640
Speaker 2: things you're importing which are making it more expensive to

856
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 2: build homes.

857
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:31,480
Speaker 1: You could.

858
00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 2: Narrow your immigration enforcement because the construction workforce is, you know,

859
00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 2: is very significantly non US born, and you're driving up

860
00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:44,600
Speaker 2: labor prices and you're making labor more scarce, you know.

861
00:45:45,040 --> 00:45:48,120
Speaker 2: But there also was was a desire to secure the

862
00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:50,840
Speaker 2: southern border, which they did, and now there's a desire

863
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 2: because he campaign on this, to have some amount of

864
00:45:55,120 --> 00:45:57,840
Speaker 2: the millions of people who came here inconsistent with laws

865
00:45:58,000 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 2: be sent back somewhere. But what I keep thinking about

866
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:06,120
Speaker 2: when I look at the president is the why versus

867
00:46:06,160 --> 00:46:09,359
Speaker 2: the how. There's a lot of support for a lot

868
00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:11,400
Speaker 2: of what why Trump's doing things.

869
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:13,960
Speaker 1: And I've always said that. I've always said that, and

870
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:17,080
Speaker 1: this is the the danger the Democrats have. They see

871
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:20,840
Speaker 1: the unpopularity of sending the National Guard into the cities

872
00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:22,600
Speaker 1: and say, aha, we can fight them on this, and

873
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 1: it's like no, no, no, the tactics they don't like

874
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 1: the end goal they still want.

875
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 2: You're one hundred percent right, you know. On trade, you know,

876
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 2: majorities say that we shouldn't be running such massive trade

877
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:41,920
Speaker 2: deficits every year, but tariffs are a majority unpopular. You

878
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:44,239
Speaker 2: see the same thing in crime. You see the same

879
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:49,360
Speaker 2: thing with with you know, deportation of undocumented people. You

880
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 2: see the same thing with a lot of the political correctness.

881
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 1: Well right, like you quoted last week, I think it

882
00:46:54,719 --> 00:46:56,719
Speaker 1: was in your last sub stack where you know you

883
00:46:56,760 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 1: want deep dark at parties that you don't want me at.

884
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:04,200
Speaker 1: You know what, you know the whole Jack Nicholson point.

885
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:06,920
Speaker 1: You want me on that wall. You may you may

886
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:09,799
Speaker 1: sneer at me, you may not like you know this

887
00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 1: or that. I'm totally mangling it because I haven't rewatched

888
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:15,880
Speaker 1: that movie in a long time, because I don't stumble

889
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:18,719
Speaker 1: upon movies anymore in our era of streaming. But sorry,

890
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 1: that's a rant, Like that's the one thing I miss

891
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 1: right watching pieces of movies like in the old days.

892
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:26,719
Speaker 1: I think our friend Bill Simmons, the entire rewatchable. So

893
00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:30,080
Speaker 1: it's probably gonna have to become the Rebingeables because nobody

894
00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 1: watches pieces of movies anymore because of because of how

895
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:38,960
Speaker 1: we consume content. But Nicholson was that person, right, Nicholson

896
00:47:39,080 --> 00:47:42,959
Speaker 1: is the I don't want to know the tactics you're doing,

897
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:46,879
Speaker 1: and if I do, I will condemn them, but please

898
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:48,080
Speaker 1: keep the streets clean.

899
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 2: Right and you you absolutely have that, You're right.

900
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:51,919
Speaker 1: I did.

901
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:55,080
Speaker 2: I did include that, and it was in a reference

902
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 2: to Canada, which was kind of funny because ended up

903
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:02,759
Speaker 2: getting about four or five email from Canadian readers, you know,

904
00:48:02,880 --> 00:48:09,399
Speaker 2: who didn't appreciate us well to the point I made

905
00:48:10,520 --> 00:48:12,399
Speaker 2: both when I was up there at a speaking thing

906
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:14,399
Speaker 2: or I was the only American man that they come

907
00:48:14,440 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 2: after me. But I said, look, if you're Donald Trump,

908
00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:22,160
Speaker 2: you know you have you again the how well you know,

909
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:25,399
Speaker 2: fifty first state and just kind of offensive to one

910
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:28,000
Speaker 2: of our great allies and neighbors and friends up north.

911
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 2: But if your team Trump, You're like, okay, fine, but

912
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 2: you know what we got. We got a guy who

913
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:36,280
Speaker 2: ran who said he was going to massively increase Canada's

914
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:38,400
Speaker 2: defense spending, which we've been building begging them to do

915
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:41,200
Speaker 2: for years and years and years. Now all of a sudden,

916
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:43,359
Speaker 2: mad at me, they're going to do it. They ended

917
00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:45,600
Speaker 2: their carbon tax, they're going to reduce their immigration, and

918
00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:48,840
Speaker 2: they're going to quote, build, baby, build, according to Carney.

919
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:51,759
Speaker 2: So if you're the president, you're President Trump, maybe they're

920
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:53,920
Speaker 2: not going to put you on a Canadian postage stamp.

921
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:57,880
Speaker 2: But the why all of these things they weren't doing?

922
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:01,840
Speaker 2: You know, could there be a kinder and gentler and

923
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:04,400
Speaker 2: less jerky way to do it? I think so when

924
00:49:04,480 --> 00:49:08,400
Speaker 2: you think so, But the administration would say every president

925
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:11,120
Speaker 2: prior to Trump was begging our NATO allies to meet

926
00:49:11,160 --> 00:49:15,160
Speaker 2: their two percent commitment to defense. Trump comes in makes

927
00:49:15,200 --> 00:49:17,200
Speaker 2: some question whether we're still committed to NATO and now

928
00:49:17,239 --> 00:49:20,200
Speaker 2: they're all going to five percent with a big assist

929
00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:21,480
Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin.

930
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:23,960
Speaker 1: Let's go to the crime Way because I find it

931
00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 1: interesting we have Wes Moore and JB. Pritzker who are

932
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 1: handling this completely differently. JB. Pritzker is touring Chicago touting

933
00:49:33,760 --> 00:49:36,879
Speaker 1: how safe it is. Wes Moore is saying stay out

934
00:49:36,880 --> 00:49:41,000
Speaker 1: of Baltimore. We're making progress, and I'm going to surge

935
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:44,799
Speaker 1: my own resources. Into the city to help them out,

936
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 1: but you stay out federal government. Which one is got

937
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:53,720
Speaker 1: is building the better profile for twenty twenty eight.

938
00:49:54,440 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 2: Well, i'd say Muriel Bowser, but the mayor of DC

939
00:49:57,800 --> 00:49:59,480
Speaker 2: who says great feedj You want to.

940
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:02,800
Speaker 1: Ask Trapp, you know, I always Yeah, she's got handcuffs

941
00:50:02,800 --> 00:50:07,600
Speaker 1: on her literally I'm not literally, but sorry, policy handcuffs

942
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:08,440
Speaker 1: on her a little bit.

943
00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:14,040
Speaker 2: Look, it's uh More is a fascinating guy, you know,

944
00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:18,279
Speaker 2: it's it's I'm hoping as a Marylander, I'm hoping he

945
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:21,239
Speaker 2: is wildly successful as governor because that's good for those

946
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:23,600
Speaker 2: of us who live here in the Old Bay State.

947
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:27,919
Speaker 2: And he's having met him a few times, he's a charismatic,

948
00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:34,560
Speaker 2: interesting guy. If Pritzker a billionaire, you know, although he's

949
00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:37,960
Speaker 2: he's he's getting in shape if you notice, he's a big,

950
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:40,560
Speaker 2: heavy set fellow, and and he's slimming down, which is

951
00:50:41,040 --> 00:50:43,359
Speaker 2: what folks who want to run for president do. And

952
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 2: it's also a way to be healthy, which is good.

953
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:49,480
Speaker 2: The idea the Dems are going to pick even a

954
00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:54,680
Speaker 2: progressive billionaire just feels so. I don't see how you

955
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:58,880
Speaker 2: make it through the primaries. He's obviously very smart, you know,

956
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:01,359
Speaker 2: he's saying, stay out of my state. But over the

957
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:04,759
Speaker 2: Labor Day weekend there were what fifty seven shootings and

958
00:51:04,800 --> 00:51:12,359
Speaker 2: thirty deaths, and Chicago's tough. I'm not sure to your

959
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:15,480
Speaker 2: point you made a moment ago. I'm not sure I

960
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:19,880
Speaker 2: see a Democratic governor or mayor right now that I

961
00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:22,360
Speaker 2: think has cracked the code on how to play Trump

962
00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:27,120
Speaker 2: on crime, because too many Democrats are saying, look at

963
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:30,520
Speaker 2: the statistics, but crime is a visceral, emotional issue.

964
00:51:30,840 --> 00:51:33,160
Speaker 1: We're all afraid of it. Just like the economy. It

965
00:51:33,760 --> 00:51:37,279
Speaker 1: is a vibe. Vibes do matter because the perception is

966
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:39,920
Speaker 1: the reality as far as it is far. You know,

967
00:51:39,920 --> 00:51:41,880
Speaker 1: if people think a city is unsafe, they're not going

968
00:51:41,920 --> 00:51:45,279
Speaker 1: to travel into that city hard stop. And look, is

969
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:47,480
Speaker 1: it true that I think some of the caricatures have

970
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 1: gone haywire? I mean, I know this firsthand. I had

971
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:58,600
Speaker 1: a friend visit recently recently and expected mayhem and came

972
00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:01,439
Speaker 1: to go see Springsteen. Okay, it was at National's Park,

973
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:03,640
Speaker 1: so it's probably six months ago. You know, I want

974
00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:06,839
Speaker 1: to say, like it's six or eight months ago, and

975
00:52:07,440 --> 00:52:10,600
Speaker 1: oh my god, everything I thought it was good. Everything

976
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:13,160
Speaker 1: was great. The city was great. Et cetera, et cetera.

977
00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:16,680
Speaker 1: But you know that perception can turn into reality because

978
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:17,720
Speaker 1: it does drive people away.

979
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:23,080
Speaker 2: And there is the perception reality and reality reality. You know,

980
00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:25,600
Speaker 2: whether it's carjacking or otherwise.

981
00:52:25,719 --> 00:52:27,799
Speaker 1: DC is not.

982
00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:31,280
Speaker 2: You and I know go to some number of European

983
00:52:31,360 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 2: or other cities. American cities feel a lot less safe,

984
00:52:34,600 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 2: a lot less often. The idea of the nation's capital,

985
00:52:38,200 --> 00:52:40,280
Speaker 2: you know, is a place you need to watch yourself.

986
00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:42,920
Speaker 2: You need to be really careful, you know, I mean

987
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:45,880
Speaker 2: a single event is an anecdote as opposed to the data.

988
00:52:45,920 --> 00:52:49,640
Speaker 2: But my daughter's boyfriend who just graduated and moved here

989
00:52:49,680 --> 00:52:53,760
Speaker 2: to town two days before Trump announces the federal moving

990
00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:57,600
Speaker 2: in ten am, three blocks from the US capital, car

991
00:52:57,680 --> 00:52:59,960
Speaker 2: rolls up, dude walks and pulls, you know, pulls a gun.

992
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:06,480
Speaker 2: Is like just takes his wallet. And people worry about crime,

993
00:53:06,680 --> 00:53:10,200
Speaker 2: and you desperately don't want to be in politic making

994
00:53:10,239 --> 00:53:13,239
Speaker 2: crime political. But if you're in a political fight over crime,

995
00:53:13,280 --> 00:53:15,040
Speaker 2: you don't want to be on the side of crime.

996
00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:18,040
Speaker 2: Is not a problem because it's hard to win that one.

997
00:53:18,239 --> 00:53:20,880
Speaker 1: You know, you and I were saw a Democratic Party

998
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:24,000
Speaker 1: in the nineties respond to you know, I remember three

999
00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:27,200
Speaker 1: strikes in You're out. Got a lot of Republican governors

1000
00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:30,440
Speaker 1: elected and re elected in nineteen ninety four, Pete Wilson

1001
00:53:31,160 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 1: and Pete Wilson in California, a Republican governor, Jim Edgar

1002
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:39,439
Speaker 1: in Illinois, a Republican governor, George Pataki in New York

1003
00:53:39,480 --> 00:53:42,320
Speaker 1: a Republican governor. And how did the Democrats respond to

1004
00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:45,880
Speaker 1: ninety five and ninety six the infamous crime bill with

1005
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:49,440
Speaker 1: a Republican Congress and a guy named Joe Biden as

1006
00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:52,799
Speaker 1: the face of it in the Senate, hiring one hundred

1007
00:53:52,840 --> 00:53:56,640
Speaker 1: thousand more cops. I don't see that Democratic Party right now.

1008
00:53:58,120 --> 00:54:01,560
Speaker 2: Look, it's not your father Democratic Party or the one

1009
00:54:01,600 --> 00:54:04,160
Speaker 2: that you and I, you know, came to town and

1010
00:54:04,200 --> 00:54:07,000
Speaker 2: started dealing with. I'm sure you saw yesterday the new

1011
00:54:07,040 --> 00:54:13,000
Speaker 2: Gallup data where not socialism? Yeah, or you know, Republican

1012
00:54:13,280 --> 00:54:16,120
Speaker 2: support for capitalism between twenty ten and twenty twenty five

1013
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:19,000
Speaker 2: went up three points to seventy four percent, But it's

1014
00:54:19,080 --> 00:54:21,640
Speaker 2: less than half of the Democrats right now supported as

1015
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:24,720
Speaker 2: it keeps falling, and support for socialism is near fifty

1016
00:54:24,760 --> 00:54:29,160
Speaker 2: percent among Democrats. So you take that issue, you take

1017
00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:32,600
Speaker 2: the crime issue again, I'd say it's a combination of

1018
00:54:32,880 --> 00:54:37,520
Speaker 2: the Trump effect push DEM's left, but POSTGFC, you have

1019
00:54:37,600 --> 00:54:42,080
Speaker 2: a huge part of the liberal party that says, hey,

1020
00:54:42,440 --> 00:54:45,399
Speaker 2: we're not being listened to. You know, the Hillary's given

1021
00:54:45,440 --> 00:54:47,479
Speaker 2: these speeches, the Goldman Sachs for a lot of money,

1022
00:54:47,520 --> 00:54:49,160
Speaker 2: and we're gonna let's go vote for this Trump guy.

1023
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:49,920
Speaker 1: You know.

1024
00:54:50,080 --> 00:54:52,720
Speaker 2: The Bernie is that Bernie is the populism now AOC

1025
00:54:52,880 --> 00:54:55,279
Speaker 2: the populism on the left, just like Trump is the

1026
00:54:55,280 --> 00:54:59,880
Speaker 2: populism on the right. And both establishment parties are struggling.

1027
00:55:00,200 --> 00:55:02,360
Speaker 2: The Dems are in an epic civil war right now.

1028
00:55:02,840 --> 00:55:06,560
Speaker 2: Who's going to be their standard bearer and where are

1029
00:55:06,600 --> 00:55:09,440
Speaker 2: they going to go? I know you and Solisa on

1030
00:55:09,480 --> 00:55:12,320
Speaker 2: your wonderful I don't know if it's weekly talks together

1031
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:15,439
Speaker 2: and talk to some about this. I found, by the way, Chuck,

1032
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:18,120
Speaker 2: one of my secrets now I've decided for my sub

1033
00:55:18,160 --> 00:55:20,840
Speaker 2: stack is since I'm never going to be as visible

1034
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:23,319
Speaker 2: or as smart as you sort of guys, but I

1035
00:55:23,360 --> 00:55:26,000
Speaker 2: can be first. So I did my look at twenty

1036
00:55:26,040 --> 00:55:28,879
Speaker 2: twenty eight field like three months ago. I'm like, I'll

1037
00:55:28,920 --> 00:55:31,759
Speaker 2: just hit stuff before everybody else does, because I'm never

1038
00:55:31,760 --> 00:55:33,480
Speaker 2: going to if I go after you, I'm never going

1039
00:55:33,480 --> 00:55:34,040
Speaker 2: to be as good.

1040
00:55:34,440 --> 00:55:37,319
Speaker 1: Oh you're funny on that. Speaking of twenty twenty eight,

1041
00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:39,319
Speaker 1: I actually want to jump to twenty thirty two because

1042
00:55:39,360 --> 00:55:41,400
Speaker 1: it's a piece of mind. But it gets that to

1043
00:55:41,600 --> 00:55:45,000
Speaker 1: why I do it as a roundabout way to say

1044
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:48,759
Speaker 1: that two most important states I think now for the

1045
00:55:48,800 --> 00:55:52,160
Speaker 1: next decade are Georgia and North Carolina. And let me

1046
00:55:52,239 --> 00:55:54,320
Speaker 1: lay out the case as to why what Florida and

1047
00:55:54,400 --> 00:55:57,759
Speaker 1: Ohio were in the first decade, what Michigan, Wisconsin, and

1048
00:55:57,800 --> 00:56:01,960
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania have been for basically the last ten years, that

1049
00:56:02,040 --> 00:56:03,840
Speaker 1: now it's going to be Georgia and North Carolina. And

1050
00:56:03,880 --> 00:56:06,840
Speaker 1: let me explain by twenty thirty two, if the current

1051
00:56:06,960 --> 00:56:14,160
Speaker 1: estimates hold on reapportionment. Kamala Harris believe it or not,

1052
00:56:14,200 --> 00:56:17,600
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, had she only one of the

1053
00:56:17,640 --> 00:56:23,359
Speaker 1: swing states Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, she'd gotten to write

1054
00:56:23,360 --> 00:56:26,680
Speaker 1: at two seventy. In twenty thirty two, that same map

1055
00:56:26,800 --> 00:56:29,160
Speaker 1: leaves her eleven electoral votes short. She'd be sitting at

1056
00:56:29,160 --> 00:56:33,760
Speaker 1: two fifty nine, which means a Sun Belt state Arizona, Georgia,

1057
00:56:34,239 --> 00:56:37,479
Speaker 1: or North Carolina, and that they are really the New

1058
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:40,360
Speaker 1: so I throw you probably have to throw Arizona in there.

1059
00:56:39,719 --> 00:56:43,200
Speaker 1: That those three states now the big ten is out

1060
00:56:43,640 --> 00:56:48,959
Speaker 1: right and the acc SEC big twelve states. Since there's

1061
00:56:49,000 --> 00:56:50,840
Speaker 1: no Big ten yet in the South, there will be,

1062
00:56:50,880 --> 00:56:54,960
Speaker 1: I'm guessing, but there isn't yet of those states that

1063
00:56:55,000 --> 00:56:56,880
Speaker 1: they are super important. And when you start to do

1064
00:56:56,920 --> 00:57:01,160
Speaker 1: the Democratic math on Senate seats right now, if the

1065
00:57:01,239 --> 00:57:06,480
Speaker 1: Democrats win every Senate seat in every consistent blue state

1066
00:57:06,560 --> 00:57:10,719
Speaker 1: plus the seven swing states, the ceiling for a Democratic

1067
00:57:10,719 --> 00:57:16,240
Speaker 1: Senate is fifty two seats fifty two max. Republicans are

1068
00:57:16,240 --> 00:57:17,960
Speaker 1: at fifty three right now in case you're wondering, and

1069
00:57:18,000 --> 00:57:21,240
Speaker 1: they have and they're underperforming in the swing states, and

1070
00:57:21,280 --> 00:57:24,200
Speaker 1: they've underperformed in a few of their own states, so

1071
00:57:24,600 --> 00:57:30,040
Speaker 1: their ceiling is already higher. But that means holding Georgia

1072
00:57:30,120 --> 00:57:33,479
Speaker 1: Senate and winning North Carolina Senate, and then of course

1073
00:57:33,520 --> 00:57:36,400
Speaker 1: those states have to become If they don't win them,

1074
00:57:36,440 --> 00:57:39,920
Speaker 1: they won't win the presidency. Who wins Georgia North Carolina

1075
00:57:40,640 --> 00:57:43,640
Speaker 1: will decide who wins the presidency, and I think that

1076
00:57:43,640 --> 00:57:46,760
Speaker 1: that is in the twenty thirties, and frankly, we're getting

1077
00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:51,120
Speaker 1: a taste of it now that those are probably the

1078
00:57:51,160 --> 00:57:53,440
Speaker 1: two most important states for the next decade.

1079
00:57:54,920 --> 00:57:58,840
Speaker 2: Thoughts, I agree with you, I wouldn't disagree with you

1080
00:57:58,880 --> 00:58:01,280
Speaker 2: first because like this is literally what you cut your

1081
00:58:01,320 --> 00:58:03,360
Speaker 2: teeth going and learning and studying.

1082
00:58:03,480 --> 00:58:05,960
Speaker 1: Well, it's more of me just trying to like get

1083
00:58:06,040 --> 00:58:08,520
Speaker 1: you to I know it makes your brain stir too

1084
00:58:08,560 --> 00:58:10,720
Speaker 1: when you start thinking about these things. I think you're right.

1085
00:58:11,160 --> 00:58:13,720
Speaker 2: Is it David Brooks or is it maybe Ron Brownstein

1086
00:58:13,720 --> 00:58:18,080
Speaker 2: who's been talking about the Sunbelt rustmelt transition for a while.

1087
00:58:19,640 --> 00:58:22,600
Speaker 2: You're I think you're one hundred percent right. And that's

1088
00:58:23,000 --> 00:58:26,760
Speaker 2: that is not based upon tariffs or the economy or

1089
00:58:26,760 --> 00:58:29,800
Speaker 2: anything else. That's where people are choosing to live where

1090
00:58:29,840 --> 00:58:32,560
Speaker 2: the economy is stronger and where the economy is weaker,

1091
00:58:32,560 --> 00:58:35,440
Speaker 2: and all those indications are.

1092
00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:38,520
Speaker 1: You're right well, and it ties into the socialism issue

1093
00:58:38,560 --> 00:58:42,560
Speaker 1: in this way. Go look at that Gallup poll and

1094
00:58:42,600 --> 00:58:46,320
Speaker 1: go look at where socialism is sort of most popular

1095
00:58:46,720 --> 00:58:51,240
Speaker 1: and where socialism is least popular. And this is where

1096
00:58:51,280 --> 00:58:54,000
Speaker 1: I think the Bernie Sanders crowd and the AOC and

1097
00:58:54,040 --> 00:58:58,439
Speaker 1: the Mom Donnies just don't understand the country. If you're

1098
00:58:58,440 --> 00:59:02,480
Speaker 1: in the north, and this includes your Wisconsin's your Michigan's

1099
00:59:02,480 --> 00:59:07,240
Speaker 1: This is why progressives can win statewide a fetterman. They

1100
00:59:07,280 --> 00:59:10,760
Speaker 1: can win statewide in the North. Is when you say socialism,

1101
00:59:11,440 --> 00:59:14,760
Speaker 1: they think the European socialism. When you go to the

1102
00:59:14,800 --> 00:59:19,480
Speaker 1: Sun Belt, the influx of Latino voters over multiple generations,

1103
00:59:19,480 --> 00:59:22,680
Speaker 1: now it is created. And I say this as a

1104
00:59:22,680 --> 00:59:25,480
Speaker 1: South Floridian somebody grew up in Miami who understands the

1105
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:30,840
Speaker 1: S word, and the S word is synonymous with authoritarianism

1106
00:59:31,480 --> 00:59:33,560
Speaker 1: to a lot of Latinos in the South. And it's

1107
00:59:33,680 --> 00:59:37,000
Speaker 1: not just Cubans, It's not just Venezuelans. It is all

1108
00:59:37,040 --> 00:59:39,640
Speaker 1: over Latin America. Even when you see trust, may have

1109
00:59:39,720 --> 00:59:43,200
Speaker 1: a lot of Mexican friends who don't like Amlow or

1110
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:46,840
Speaker 1: shine Bomb and the hard turn to the left because

1111
00:59:46,880 --> 00:59:50,200
Speaker 1: they view that as sort of following this path in

1112
00:59:50,400 --> 00:59:55,880
Speaker 1: Latin America where socialism and authoritarianism blur in the same way. Frankly,

1113
00:59:55,920 --> 00:59:59,800
Speaker 1: that populism blurs with the version of authoritarianism in Europe,

1114
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:03,320
Speaker 1: in Eastern Europe. And we've seen that. But it is

1115
01:00:03,600 --> 01:00:06,120
Speaker 1: it almost I look at it. It to me makes

1116
01:00:06,160 --> 01:00:08,560
Speaker 1: it And I don't think the Democrats fully understand this

1117
01:00:08,680 --> 01:00:14,080
Speaker 1: yet because most most of their progressive activists are from

1118
01:00:14,120 --> 01:00:18,240
Speaker 1: the North and therefore don't fully appreciate how toxic the

1119
01:00:18,320 --> 01:00:18,800
Speaker 1: S word is.

1120
01:00:20,400 --> 01:00:24,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I haven't seen the Galloper others break it down.

1121
01:00:24,600 --> 01:00:29,440
Speaker 2: My instinct would be it's certainly in cities and among

1122
01:00:29,560 --> 01:00:35,480
Speaker 2: younger people, there's a higher embrace of the idea you

1123
01:00:35,480 --> 01:00:39,920
Speaker 2: know you're right, rather than some heavy ideological thing, more

1124
01:00:39,920 --> 01:00:43,160
Speaker 2: of an idea that that there ought to be stronger

1125
01:00:43,160 --> 01:00:46,360
Speaker 2: safety nets, that you know that whether it's and the

1126
01:00:46,360 --> 01:00:49,720
Speaker 2: individual ideas do poll well right like as you know

1127
01:00:49,920 --> 01:00:52,800
Speaker 2: what I would you know, maybe at a minimum.

1128
01:00:52,360 --> 01:00:54,960
Speaker 1: They could still pursue some of these ideas, but they

1129
01:00:55,000 --> 01:00:58,200
Speaker 1: need to radically fight the idea that it's socialism and

1130
01:00:58,240 --> 01:01:00,880
Speaker 1: in fact just say no, no, no, no. Investing in

1131
01:01:00,880 --> 01:01:04,040
Speaker 1: intel is socialism? Well, that sort of mindset.

1132
01:01:04,280 --> 01:01:06,680
Speaker 2: I think that's smart politics. But I totally agree, I

1133
01:01:06,680 --> 01:01:10,600
Speaker 2: think it's I tend to think socialism is an unrehabilitatable

1134
01:01:10,680 --> 01:01:13,600
Speaker 2: brand in an American election, right, And.

1135
01:01:13,560 --> 01:01:17,240
Speaker 1: I don't think that everybody in the Democratic movement sees that. Yet.

1136
01:01:18,360 --> 01:01:21,280
Speaker 2: If you're AOC, you're raising the most money, you have

1137
01:01:21,520 --> 01:01:27,280
Speaker 2: incredibly huge adoring crowds everywhere you go. You know, all

1138
01:01:27,320 --> 01:01:31,800
Speaker 2: of your actual experience is you're tapping into something that's

1139
01:01:31,840 --> 01:01:35,400
Speaker 2: real and that's meaningful. The challenge for the Democratic Party

1140
01:01:35,680 --> 01:01:38,000
Speaker 2: large is that can't be the entirety of the party.

1141
01:01:38,480 --> 01:01:40,480
Speaker 2: And if you have a candidate as weak as Biden

1142
01:01:40,600 --> 01:01:43,400
Speaker 2: proved to be, then you have to pander in a

1143
01:01:43,400 --> 01:01:46,120
Speaker 2: way where a great Bill Clinton type candidate or even

1144
01:01:46,160 --> 01:01:50,200
Speaker 2: a Barack Obama figures out, here's how we're going to win,

1145
01:01:50,760 --> 01:01:52,440
Speaker 2: and I'm going to channel I know you want me

1146
01:01:52,480 --> 01:01:53,800
Speaker 2: to go more left, and I know you want me

1147
01:01:53,840 --> 01:01:56,360
Speaker 2: to go more right. I'm going to put it all together.

1148
01:01:56,720 --> 01:01:58,680
Speaker 2: And I think part of the problem with Biden is,

1149
01:01:59,040 --> 01:02:01,080
Speaker 2: rather than being a strong Canada, he was more like

1150
01:02:01,120 --> 01:02:05,360
Speaker 2: the US under the America under the Confederation, where it

1151
01:02:05,400 --> 01:02:08,040
Speaker 2: was just the states were strong and the leadership was

1152
01:02:08,080 --> 01:02:10,360
Speaker 2: weak and you can't win nationally.

1153
01:02:10,520 --> 01:02:11,920
Speaker 1: Let me get you out of here on this. The

1154
01:02:12,000 --> 01:02:17,440
Speaker 1: redistricting wars. If we have more competitive Senate seats than

1155
01:02:17,520 --> 01:02:18,760
Speaker 1: House seats, what does that mean.

1156
01:02:20,640 --> 01:02:22,880
Speaker 2: Well, the first thing you could argue it means is

1157
01:02:22,920 --> 01:02:27,240
Speaker 2: that the politicians, the Republicans in Texas were so pathetic

1158
01:02:27,640 --> 01:02:30,080
Speaker 2: when they did the redistricting in twenty twenty one. They

1159
01:02:30,080 --> 01:02:33,040
Speaker 2: could have done this. The reason they didn't is because

1160
01:02:33,080 --> 01:02:36,479
Speaker 2: guys didn't want to have a plus eight Republican seat

1161
01:02:36,840 --> 01:02:38,640
Speaker 2: because that'd be a lot more work than a plus

1162
01:02:38,680 --> 01:02:43,080
Speaker 2: twenty Republican seat. And so in some ways this is

1163
01:02:43,080 --> 01:02:47,480
Speaker 2: a This is only a problem because incumbents had decided

1164
01:02:47,520 --> 01:02:49,760
Speaker 2: to keep it simple. Ironically, Chuck and I put this

1165
01:02:49,800 --> 01:02:53,360
Speaker 2: in one of my AI ones. If you put AI

1166
01:02:53,520 --> 01:02:56,320
Speaker 2: in terms, you'd think, well, AI drawing seats, I mean

1167
01:02:56,360 --> 01:02:57,640
Speaker 2: it will be it can.

1168
01:02:57,560 --> 01:03:01,960
Speaker 1: Come up with the most perfect Oh, whatever you tell

1169
01:03:02,040 --> 01:03:03,440
Speaker 1: it to do, yeah, you can get it too.

1170
01:03:03,560 --> 01:03:06,680
Speaker 2: So they can you know, they can carve them. They

1171
01:03:06,680 --> 01:03:09,800
Speaker 2: can test everything, and they can carve every But if

1172
01:03:09,800 --> 01:03:13,720
Speaker 2: you told NAI maximize the number of seats that Republicans

1173
01:03:13,920 --> 01:03:17,880
Speaker 2: could win, you also increase the number of seats Democrats

1174
01:03:17,880 --> 01:03:21,080
Speaker 2: could win. You make for more competitive seats. What humans

1175
01:03:21,120 --> 01:03:24,120
Speaker 2: do is say I want a seat I can't lose,

1176
01:03:24,960 --> 01:03:27,040
Speaker 2: and so as a result you end up drawing, well, well,

1177
01:03:27,080 --> 01:03:29,160
Speaker 2: the Dems will get these seats and we'll get these seats.

1178
01:03:29,520 --> 01:03:31,600
Speaker 2: So first, there is an irony that some of the

1179
01:03:31,760 --> 01:03:35,960
Speaker 2: districting wars are just that people were too self dealing

1180
01:03:36,080 --> 01:03:39,240
Speaker 2: to and didn't prioritize the party. And now Trump's coming

1181
01:03:39,240 --> 01:03:42,040
Speaker 2: and smacking everybody in the head saying, screw your seat.

1182
01:03:42,080 --> 01:03:44,560
Speaker 2: I care about my presidency, So go back and do

1183
01:03:44,640 --> 01:03:47,800
Speaker 2: what you should do if you're thinking about me. But

1184
01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:52,320
Speaker 2: it's obviously it's unhealthy that we're now in this environment

1185
01:03:52,400 --> 01:03:56,160
Speaker 2: where the if you're in a red state, they carve

1186
01:03:56,240 --> 01:03:58,280
Speaker 2: out all the blues so that you maybe forty five

1187
01:03:58,280 --> 01:03:59,960
Speaker 2: percent of the electorate and you're going to get ten

1188
01:04:00,080 --> 01:04:02,880
Speaker 2: percent of the seats. And I'm in Maryland and you know,

1189
01:04:02,920 --> 01:04:04,880
Speaker 2: I don't know what are we forty percent, thirty five

1190
01:04:04,920 --> 01:04:07,440
Speaker 2: percent of the voter, I'll probably forty two forty We're

1191
01:04:07,440 --> 01:04:10,080
Speaker 2: going to get maybe blanked or maybe get one seat.

1192
01:04:10,480 --> 01:04:13,160
Speaker 2: That just doesn't feel like a representative democracy to me.

1193
01:04:13,760 --> 01:04:16,120
Speaker 2: Of course, if you wanted to fix this to me,

1194
01:04:16,280 --> 01:04:18,200
Speaker 2: one of the first things you'd do is you'd say,

1195
01:04:18,480 --> 01:04:20,600
Speaker 2: how many seats are there in the House? Four hundred

1196
01:04:20,600 --> 01:04:21,120
Speaker 2: and thirty five?

1197
01:04:21,280 --> 01:04:22,640
Speaker 1: Not enough? Is how long?

1198
01:04:22,720 --> 01:04:25,520
Speaker 2: Has that been true? Since nineteen eleven when they passed

1199
01:04:25,520 --> 01:04:27,600
Speaker 2: the law. What'd they do from the founding of the

1200
01:04:27,600 --> 01:04:30,760
Speaker 2: Republic till nineteen eleven? They grew the House as the

1201
01:04:30,760 --> 01:04:34,520
Speaker 2: population grew so that it could be an actually representative body.

1202
01:04:34,840 --> 01:04:37,160
Speaker 2: They stop doing that, and now you make it much

1203
01:04:37,240 --> 01:04:41,400
Speaker 2: easier to do these ridiculous jerrymanders where people get here.

1204
01:04:42,040 --> 01:04:44,000
Speaker 1: I bet you didn't know this, but you're echoing. I

1205
01:04:44,000 --> 01:04:47,600
Speaker 1: did a Ted talk on uncapped the House if you

1206
01:04:47,640 --> 01:04:50,720
Speaker 1: want to solve so many problems. It's now live on

1207
01:04:50,760 --> 01:04:55,080
Speaker 1: the Ted talk machine. But this would fix those that don't.

1208
01:04:55,120 --> 01:04:58,000
Speaker 1: Let you know a wit. If you increase the size

1209
01:04:58,000 --> 01:05:00,320
Speaker 1: of the House, you increase the electoral college number, which

1210
01:05:00,360 --> 01:05:04,880
Speaker 1: means you minimize the split decision of popular vote and

1211
01:05:05,800 --> 01:05:11,320
Speaker 1: electoral college. You you end up perhaps creating making redistricting

1212
01:05:11,760 --> 01:05:15,560
Speaker 1: issue me jerry mandering less relevant, not to say it

1213
01:05:15,560 --> 01:05:18,480
Speaker 1: won't happen, but sort of less relevant. If you did this,

1214
01:05:18,640 --> 01:05:21,760
Speaker 1: and oh my word, we might diversify the types of

1215
01:05:21,760 --> 01:05:24,640
Speaker 1: people that make because you would, in theory shrink the

1216
01:05:24,720 --> 01:05:28,160
Speaker 1: number strength the physical size of congressional districts, which would

1217
01:05:28,240 --> 01:05:31,320
Speaker 1: make it which would open it up to people without

1218
01:05:31,360 --> 01:05:33,840
Speaker 1: big dollars to go run for it.

1219
01:05:33,800 --> 01:05:36,440
Speaker 2: It's and it's consistent with what the founders had designed.

1220
01:05:36,440 --> 01:05:37,640
Speaker 2: You're exactly what the right.

1221
01:05:37,920 --> 01:05:40,439
Speaker 1: No, and my fear is we're literally flipping it where

1222
01:05:40,480 --> 01:05:44,840
Speaker 1: the people's House is now the Senate and the body

1223
01:05:44,960 --> 01:05:49,080
Speaker 1: that is controlled by state legislatures, which originally was elected.

1224
01:05:49,120 --> 01:05:54,440
Speaker 1: The Senate is now essentially electing the House. I look

1225
01:05:54,480 --> 01:05:59,040
Speaker 1: forward to listening to the Ted Talk. Hey Bruce Melman,

1226
01:05:59,160 --> 01:06:01,520
Speaker 1: this was always a plague. I went over an hour.

1227
01:06:01,560 --> 01:06:03,320
Speaker 1: I didn't mean to, so my apologies.

1228
01:06:03,720 --> 01:06:06,240
Speaker 2: I appreciate the invitation. Always Chuck could to see you.