WEBVTT - NBA Finals Preview & Prediction 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:06.240 No, no, Come on on this episode of the Heat Check. 0:00:07.120 --> 0:00:10.840 Let's break down on the final, shall we Golden State 0:00:11.200 --> 0:00:16.680 versus Boston Celtics. Where are the mismatches? How do these 0:00:16.720 --> 0:00:20.800 two teams compare and contrast? Who has the final long 0:00:21.000 --> 0:00:24.400 slow edge? Will Rob Williams be able to play in 0:00:24.440 --> 0:00:29.600 this series? And will Steph win the illustrious finals? MVP? 0:00:30.520 --> 0:00:35.000 Cohing around, we're not talking about that part. Let's dig 0:00:35.040 --> 0:00:46.320 into it, Brock, go ahead and drop that house. It's 0:00:46.400 --> 0:00:51.080 every time the same time, got you? I mean, she's 0:00:51.120 --> 0:00:54.720 on a schedule. We got a cleaning lady here. Just 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:57.000 to let you guys in on the background of all this. 0:00:57.160 --> 0:00:59.920 Every time when I record, we have a cleaning late 0:01:00.320 --> 0:01:02.480 that I always get nervous she's gonna come into the 0:01:02.520 --> 0:01:05.479 studio when we're recording, because that's how my anxiety works. 0:01:05.760 --> 0:01:09.119 So I'm like, come in here, and she never does. 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:15.319 Thirty teams start the NBA season and most of them fail. 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:18.160 Most of them fail at the goal that they are 0:01:18.160 --> 0:01:22.480 trying to achieve, except for Oklahoma City Thunder. They have 0:01:22.640 --> 0:01:26.800 completed their mission. I tell you what, probably five to 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:31.040 six teams out of those teams have real championship aspirations. 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:34.039 I'm not talking about fan bases like Laker fans have 0:01:34.080 --> 0:01:38.319 title hopes every single year, but we knew real people 0:01:38.360 --> 0:01:42.720 within the Lakers organization new titles are not coming this year, 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:48.080 no matter how trash they are. There's a sobering feeling 0:01:48.200 --> 0:01:52.360 within the actual organizations themselves. I'm talking about discussions and 0:01:52.440 --> 0:01:56.040 preseason I'm talking about locker rooms. I'm talking about breaking 0:01:56.120 --> 0:02:01.880 down film talks between players, free agents, coaching changes. Like 0:02:01.960 --> 0:02:05.360 there are people who know, like starting of the season, 0:02:05.920 --> 0:02:10.160 after Summer League, after summer training camp, they know like 0:02:10.240 --> 0:02:13.680 we've we've kind of got something. We might mess around 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:16.760 and really do something here. This year, I think it 0:02:16.840 --> 0:02:23.040 was the Bucks, the Suns, the Nets, the heat for them, 0:02:23.160 --> 0:02:27.720 the Warriors, and the Sixers. I don't think anyone, including 0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:31.960 Dallas in the preseason believed they could end up going 0:02:31.960 --> 0:02:35.120 to the Western Conference finals. I don't think they thought 0:02:35.400 --> 0:02:37.840 we're in the conversation for a chip. They hadn't even 0:02:37.840 --> 0:02:40.880 gotten out of the first round with Luca yet and 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:43.359 with the first year head coach in Boston. There is 0:02:43.400 --> 0:02:46.320 a reason this team was forty to one to win 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:49.720 it all before the season began, right, So now we 0:02:49.800 --> 0:02:52.480 have our final set. On one side, we have the Warriors, 0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:56.520 who have recaptured what a lot of people, especially their 0:02:56.520 --> 0:03:00.960 annoying fan base, predicted. They got fully healthy and they 0:03:01.000 --> 0:03:05.360 got back to their greatness. Almost just threw up my mouth. 0:03:05.720 --> 0:03:09.680 And the other a mediocre team that make no sense. 0:03:10.800 --> 0:03:13.320 The roster was janky as fuck. Didn't think it would 0:03:13.400 --> 0:03:17.080 work ever, A team that many felt needed to be 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:21.120 broken up for parts, A team built for disappointments, and 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:25.080 in fact, they did disappoint for most of the season. 0:03:25.360 --> 0:03:28.520 They came together, though, and became the most dominant team 0:03:28.639 --> 0:03:31.040 in the Eastern Conference for most of the second half 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:33.640 of the season. So pretty big turnaround. As we said 0:03:33.760 --> 0:03:37.520 in last episode, a tale of two teams, one desperately 0:03:37.720 --> 0:03:41.680 trying to recapture the old glory like a college quarterback 0:03:41.720 --> 0:03:46.720 coming back from injury. Will Rico Jamison return back. I 0:03:46.760 --> 0:03:50.720 just made that name up return back for Blue Mountain State. 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:55.840 Great show to show their fans we are not delusional. 0:03:56.240 --> 0:03:59.560 Our championship aspirations are real. We went into the luxury 0:03:59.560 --> 0:04:05.480 text for the reason this banners and the other an angry, 0:04:05.600 --> 0:04:09.680 cantankerous fan base with the most amount of banners under 0:04:09.720 --> 0:04:13.680 their belt. But we haven't seen one since the KG era, 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:16.800 and it was only one. They act like they've won 0:04:16.839 --> 0:04:20.200 four titles since the ABA, more than four titles since 0:04:20.200 --> 0:04:24.440 the ABA NBA merger, but they have not. Secretly, they 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:26.960 know it's hard to win a chip in this era. 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:29.680 So I think we got we got a dogfight on 0:04:29.680 --> 0:04:32.640 our fan hands, folks. We got Boston versus Golden State, 0:04:32.680 --> 0:04:36.640 we got Tatum versus Steph And I'm gonna say something 0:04:36.920 --> 0:04:46.320 very sounding hyperbolic. This is a generational defense, a generational 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:53.440 defense versus a transformational offense that changed the game of 0:04:53.520 --> 0:04:57.800 basketball and how it's played forever. So you're gonna say, Tristan, 0:04:57.880 --> 0:05:01.760 do not be hyperbolic. The Celtics have good defense, but 0:05:02.520 --> 0:05:07.960 generational defense. I'm not being hyperbolic, folks, Like this is 0:05:08.080 --> 0:05:10.400 the most interesting part of a chess match for a reason. 0:05:10.880 --> 0:05:14.400 Celtics defense versus the Warriors offense. This is where it clashes. 0:05:14.520 --> 0:05:17.599 This is where the shit goes down in those trenches 0:05:17.760 --> 0:05:20.200 is where the series will get one, I promise you. 0:05:21.880 --> 0:05:24.560 So let's bring it on. Let's bring it on, folks. 0:05:24.640 --> 0:05:27.080 Let's take a look at both teams, talk a little 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:28.680 about them and what it's going to take for them 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:32.159 to win the title. Let's start with Boston. When you 0:05:32.279 --> 0:05:35.400 talk Celtics, you're talking about their defense. Of course, you 0:05:35.480 --> 0:05:37.799 know you've got Tatum. Of course, you know you've got Brown. 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:40.919 They've been able to get buckets on io forever and 0:05:41.000 --> 0:05:45.480 it hasn't works. They're they're changed their offense, They've changed 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:52.599 their their roster around lockdown, smash mouth, smothering, switch everything defense. 0:05:53.200 --> 0:05:55.560 For his magazine, because I do a little reading myself, 0:05:55.720 --> 0:05:59.320 broke down their defensive running the playoffs this year. Are 0:05:59.360 --> 0:06:02.680 you sitting down? Sit down? If you're listening to this 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:06.400 and you're standing up, sit down, ho sit down, because 0:06:06.440 --> 0:06:08.920 I nearly fell to the floor when I read this. 0:06:10.240 --> 0:06:14.520 Boston's half court production doesn't just stack up well with 0:06:14.720 --> 0:06:19.720 great modern defenses, it actually is off the charts, ranking 0:06:19.880 --> 0:06:23.920 first in relative defensive ratings. Since two thousand and four. 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:28.320 Through eighteen playoff games, the Celtics have upheld opponents to 0:06:28.600 --> 0:06:31.599 just eighty six point eight points per one hundred half 0:06:31.640 --> 0:06:36.279 court possessions. Their run to the finals is not built 0:06:36.279 --> 0:06:40.240 on just great defense. It's built on historically great defense. 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:44.440 Eighty six point eight points per one hundred half court possessions? 0:06:44.560 --> 0:06:50.080 Are you serious? What that's like forty four but forty 0:06:50.360 --> 0:06:57.760 three buckets? Excuse me, holy shit? Better than the twenty 0:06:57.800 --> 0:07:01.839 seventeen Warriors, folks, Yes, who many can see consider to 0:07:01.880 --> 0:07:05.640 be the greatest team ever assembled, and they are a 0:07:05.839 --> 0:07:11.120 distant second defensively, Yes, yes, it's true. In this playoffs, 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:15.640 the Celtics swept the Nets, as we know, despite the 0:07:15.640 --> 0:07:19.040 fact that Brooklyn shot fifty four point seven percent from 0:07:19.040 --> 0:07:23.960 two and forty two point two percent from three houseway. 0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:27.880 How how's that possible? Well, they make the nets and 0:07:27.920 --> 0:07:30.400 made the Nets turn the ball over on sixteen point 0:07:30.480 --> 0:07:34.600 one percent of their offensive possessions. Swipe, swipe. That's hours 0:07:34.680 --> 0:07:38.720 we're running out in transition getting buckets. How did they 0:07:38.760 --> 0:07:42.600 stop Giannis? Well, they almost did it. But what they 0:07:42.720 --> 0:07:45.040 did do was they made the Bucks turn the ball 0:07:45.080 --> 0:07:50.480 over fourteen percent of the time. Shitload. What about the heat? 0:07:51.080 --> 0:07:53.680 Jimmy Butler, as we know, almost single handedly ended the 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:58.160 Celtics run, just based on his own greatness alone and 0:07:58.320 --> 0:08:03.000 some bad decision making by Jalen Brown and Marcus Smart 0:08:03.080 --> 0:08:04.920 which could be their Achilles heel, but we'll get to 0:08:04.960 --> 0:08:08.200 that in another time. How did the Celtics win? They 0:08:08.240 --> 0:08:12.280 made Miami turn the ball over fourteen percent of the time. 0:08:13.680 --> 0:08:17.200 So to recap the defensive pressure that this Boston team 0:08:17.240 --> 0:08:23.120 puts on star players. We are talking about Durant, Kyrie, Jannis, Drew, Butler, Tyler, 0:08:23.160 --> 0:08:27.360 hero guys who are professional bucket getters who were turning 0:08:27.360 --> 0:08:31.160 the ball over like crazy. And what we also know 0:08:31.640 --> 0:08:35.280 about this opponent. I had to look this up and 0:08:35.360 --> 0:08:38.880 it was shocking. We all know of it. What Golden 0:08:38.880 --> 0:08:44.120 State does well is this free flowing motion Picasso like 0:08:44.720 --> 0:08:49.640 maybe even more like Jackson Pollock. Just shit everywhere all 0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:54.360 the time, splashes the thing that the thing that is 0:08:54.400 --> 0:08:58.040 the achilles heel of something so creative, something so chaotic, 0:08:58.360 --> 0:09:01.959 is turnovers, lots of them. How many? You might ask, 0:09:02.320 --> 0:09:06.320 how does Golden State rank in the NBA in terms 0:09:06.320 --> 0:09:11.480 of turning the ball over? Are they are they like 0:09:11.960 --> 0:09:17.640 bottom third? No, it's worse than that. Are they twenty second, No, 0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:23.080 it's worse than that. They're twenty ninth, folks, twenty ninth 0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:27.199 out of thirty at turning the ball over. Think to yourself, 0:09:27.760 --> 0:09:31.080 who would be the one team in the NBA that 0:09:31.160 --> 0:09:34.200 could turn the ball over more than the Golden State Warriors? 0:09:34.559 --> 0:09:39.800 Just tick talk, tick talk, you know, it's Houston. You know, 0:09:39.880 --> 0:09:43.240 it's Jalen Green, you know it's Kevin Porter junior. He 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:47.680 throws the ball around more erratically and chaotically than he 0:09:47.720 --> 0:09:52.199 does bowls of soup at his former teammates. That's what 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:56.319 they do. Couple of young bloods, just Chris Crossing, trying 0:09:56.360 --> 0:09:59.720 to vibe out, getting buckets, turning the ball over like 0:10:00.880 --> 0:10:03.400 Golden State back to them. They turned the ball over 0:10:03.400 --> 0:10:08.400 in the regular season fifteen times per game. Uh uh no, no, 0:10:08.720 --> 0:10:11.920 that SIT's not gonna work here, folks. No, no, So 0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:14.280 in some ways, this is a feather in Boston's cap, right. 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:16.480 I think that's the one way, the one thing that 0:10:16.520 --> 0:10:19.160 they can see when they're in their little meetings right now. 0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:21.280 I don't want to mean to diminish it, but like 0:10:21.280 --> 0:10:24.680 they're in their little meetings right now, and they've got 0:10:24.679 --> 0:10:26.680 to be looking at that like that's the thing we 0:10:26.720 --> 0:10:29.520 need to zero in on. That's what Memphis did really well. 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:32.520 Got Golden State to turn the ball over, got out 0:10:32.520 --> 0:10:36.240 into transition, got huge leads, and then tried to milk 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:38.040 the clock out as much as possible for the rest 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:42.280 of the game. Let's break down how their defense works 0:10:42.440 --> 0:10:44.320 and how they want to run it on somebody like 0:10:44.400 --> 0:10:48.520 Golden State because the challenges are immense. So the Celtics 0:10:48.520 --> 0:10:52.640 built their defense in a way, according to eme Udoka, 0:10:52.760 --> 0:10:56.040 in a way to like lull an offense to sleep, 0:10:56.920 --> 0:11:00.959 just in time for them to say, Okay, we're gonna 0:11:00.960 --> 0:11:05.560 get this opposing team to be comfortable and complacent. And 0:11:05.600 --> 0:11:07.640 then as soon as they think that they've got us 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:10.080 and our defense figured out, like this isn't such a 0:11:10.200 --> 0:11:13.000 historic defense, then that's when they turn the beat around, folks. 0:11:13.080 --> 0:11:15.800 They turn the heat up, the flames start to pop 0:11:15.920 --> 0:11:19.920 up in their mouth, and that's that's what Boston. I 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:22.640 don't even know what that means. Boston will have to 0:11:22.679 --> 0:11:25.560 be extremely disciplined though on Golden State in order to 0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:30.360 do this, because not only do they have very specific 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:34.200 defensive schemes, they're gonna need to change those defensive schemes 0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:38.160 on Golden State, like multiple times in one possession. You're 0:11:38.200 --> 0:11:43.200 talking about totally different mentalities on defense changing and a 0:11:43.360 --> 0:11:47.160 meshing in one possession just based on what Golden State does. 0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:49.960 That is a challenge. The communication is gonna need to 0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:52.720 be there, the discipline is gonna be needing to be there, 0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:56.200 and every single player. Every role that you have, you 0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:58.480 need to be locked in on your assignment and how 0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:02.960 that assignment changes. As Golden State does their Jackson Pollock thing. Cause, 0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:06.520 like when you are trying to defend Jackson Pollock, I mean, 0:12:06.559 --> 0:12:11.120 this shit's everywhere. It's everywhere. You got this constant free 0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:16.040 motion offense, a million tiny little wrinkles inside, dribble handoffs, 0:12:16.200 --> 0:12:20.760 fake dribble handoffs, backcut, fake actions, shooters that pull up 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:23.800 from anywhere. If you try to go underneath the screen, 0:12:23.960 --> 0:12:26.520 it's night night sleep mask for you. If you try 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:29.000 to go over the screen, you're on their backside. They 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:31.680 pull up like a like somebody who's on the freeway 0:12:31.880 --> 0:12:35.320 tapping their brakes. You collide. Now they're at the free 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:40.200 throw line. Excuse me, this is a challenge. Even for 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:44.440 a legendary defense, They're gonna need to be locked in. 0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:48.200 The Warriors set would feel like constant screens. I watched 0:12:48.240 --> 0:12:52.840 an eight second clip where there was three screens on 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:55.839 the perimeter that looked like it was dumping off the 0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:58.640 ball to Draymond Green only to get Steph Curry free 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:03.000 for a quarter. Three. Just can't even notice how many 0:13:03.080 --> 0:13:07.280 they run. It's just boom boom boom, boom boom. So 0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:09.440 what you need to do is you need to either 0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:15.280 lull Golden State into this arrogance. That's what Memphis did, carelessness, recklessness, 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:18.240 and then capitalize on those mistakes, whether that's their bad 0:13:18.280 --> 0:13:20.640 shot selection, which they have the propensity to do, because 0:13:20.679 --> 0:13:23.320 again they're vibe and they're creating. They're just painting out there, 0:13:23.400 --> 0:13:27.120 you know what I mean. And then also make them 0:13:27.160 --> 0:13:30.240 turn the ball over. Limit them also to just one 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:34.600 possession if they have those careless, careless threes bad shots. 0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:39.120 You cannot let Kevon Looney get an offensive rebound and 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:41.760 then start the possession all over again. They got a 0:13:41.760 --> 0:13:46.000 new canvas. And now you're tired and you're disheartened and 0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:48.760 your egos diminished, and you're like, god, damn, I gotta 0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:51.880 do this for forty eight minutes. She sh and then 0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:56.800 Chase Center's going crazy, a staff and VP They're like, 0:13:56.840 --> 0:13:59.960 I can't read the assignment. No, you get one possession 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:06.120 and get out into transition. Run run, run, And then 0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:08.800 on offense, when you get the ball back off of 0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:15.000 a make be extremely slow, methodical. Just run your offense, 0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:18.360 make sure you get a good shot. If not a 0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:21.320 good shot, probably a great shot. Make sure that those 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:24.760 guys like Grant Williams and Derek White and especially Marks 0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:27.840 Smart are locked in and no, we're not taking bad 0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:31.920 shots tonight, folks, because that turns into fifteen extra points 0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:37.400 for a Golden State. Also, where their best offensive players out, 0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:40.320 where Golden State's best offensive players out on defense, be 0:14:40.480 --> 0:14:44.960 very physical, try your damnedest from stopping them from getting 0:14:44.960 --> 0:14:49.120 out into transition and creating this deluge a waterfall of threes. 0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:53.320 And I think the thing that's interesting for Boston offensively 0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:56.880 is that they're much bigger and stronger than Golden State. 0:14:57.080 --> 0:14:59.920 Is right, that's not necessarily going to be a fed 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:04.000 They're in their cap defensively because Golden State, I think 0:15:04.000 --> 0:15:07.200 will have ways to mitigate that. But offensively, I think 0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:10.360 this is a strength for them. They should use their strength, 0:15:10.440 --> 0:15:14.640 their athleticism, their size to either pull up over smaller 0:15:14.840 --> 0:15:19.520 defenders like Jordan Poole and nullify him. You need to 0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:23.120 figure out a way to dampen the Golden State offense 0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:26.840 by taking offensive players just completely off the floor. Like 0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:29.200 if you can go at Jordan Poole and make him 0:15:29.200 --> 0:15:32.160 get into foul trouble, make him take bad shots, out 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:36.000 of frustration, make him basically unplayable. Now you've got a 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:38.240 guy who can put up thirty who's now on the 0:15:38.400 --> 0:15:41.680 fucking bench, and another guy like Otto Porter who averages 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:44.800 like four. Okay, so then now we're starting to play 0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:48.000 with Now we're cooking with gas. Now we're cooking with gas. 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:51.040 So they should attack Pool as much as possible the 0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:54.040 same way that they did Luca and isolate him. Make 0:15:54.160 --> 0:15:58.680 Steve Kerr make hard decisions, make his ass play less minutes. 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:02.360 Shane Young from Forbes broke down the biggest problem for 0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:05.880 Boston and why I think Golden State will win, which 0:16:05.920 --> 0:16:07.800 is just gross for me to say. This is what 0:16:07.880 --> 0:16:13.040 he wrote. Golden State's offensive, flow, prowess, and pure intelligence 0:16:13.280 --> 0:16:17.040 are on vastly different levels than Milwaukee and Miami. The 0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:20.440 film session is now dedicated to a sharp shooting phenom 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:23.720 one that never gets tired, doesn't even need the ball 0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:26.880 to tear your defense to shreds, and already has twenty 0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:30.960 eight Finals games under his belt. No other player, no 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:34.000 other player has seen more defensive coverages than Steph Curry. 0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:38.560 Boston won't give him anything new to figure out, but 0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:41.800 they will be the most physical, aggressive, and switchable defense 0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:43.720 that he's ever faced in a series, and I think 0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:46.320 that's true. Much better team than any of those Cleveland 0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:50.880 Cavalier squads, much better team than the Toronto Raptors, even 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:53.920 with Kawhi Leonards. This is the problem that varies. Few 0:16:53.960 --> 0:16:56.680 teams have solved, and Boston needs to figure this out 0:16:57.480 --> 0:17:00.440 very quickly or this might be night night. That would 0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:07.480 be four, you know. So to say that Golden State 0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:10.240 offers a problem to any defense is probably the understatement 0:17:10.320 --> 0:17:13.560 of the year. The team runs eleven deep, sometimes twelve. 0:17:13.760 --> 0:17:16.720 Everybody knows their role. Gary Payton, the second is back. 0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:20.320 He's gonna be big for them. Also, andre Iguidala has 0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:23.320 basically had his entire body on ice all season. For 0:17:23.440 --> 0:17:27.960 this moment. He doesn't need to play basketball anymore. He 0:17:28.040 --> 0:17:30.880 only wants to play in NBA Finals. That's it, that's it, 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:35.760 that's it for him. Everyone knows this. They have superstar guys, 0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:37.679 and they have guys on the cusp of greatness. They 0:17:37.680 --> 0:17:43.000 have role players who have been shunned and discarded from Minnesota. 0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:45.640 They have rookies who are contributing. So depending on how 0:17:45.640 --> 0:17:48.720 you look at it, it's heaven. If you're a Warriors fan, 0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:51.639 you feel like you've got the future, the present, and 0:17:51.680 --> 0:17:55.120 the past all rolled up in one beautiful little team 0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:58.800 that plays beautiful game of basketball. Or it is a 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:01.960 complete unmitigated disaster. If you're the rest of the league 0:18:02.160 --> 0:18:05.760 wondering whether this Golden State team's gonna have another decade 0:18:05.800 --> 0:18:10.480 decade of prominence, right you're email you DONK. I can't 0:18:10.480 --> 0:18:14.480 even imagine how you think about this. I'm trying. I'm 0:18:14.480 --> 0:18:17.000 not doing a great job, but I'm not a basketball coach. 0:18:17.440 --> 0:18:19.879 I think you just think about how Memphis did it 0:18:20.280 --> 0:18:23.040 and just try to find ways like Steven Adams changed 0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:25.320 the game for them, brought Kevon Looney in. I don't 0:18:25.320 --> 0:18:27.320 know what they're gonna do for that, but the fact 0:18:27.359 --> 0:18:31.200 that Memphis held Golden State to an adjusted offensive rating 0:18:31.600 --> 0:18:35.520 of negative point seven is something that you need to 0:18:35.520 --> 0:18:38.200 get into the film room and dig into. They had 0:18:38.200 --> 0:18:43.159 an aor adjusted offensive rating of plus ten or better 0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:48.440 against every other team this playoff run. Negative point seven 0:18:48.480 --> 0:18:52.800 against Memphis, plus ten or better on offense against everyone else. 0:18:54.480 --> 0:18:58.520 That's the stat that the Warriors and Boston needs to watch. 0:18:58.960 --> 0:19:01.560 Like I said, the Warrior turn the ball over a 0:19:01.680 --> 0:19:05.120 ton in the regular season, but they've cut that down 0:19:05.160 --> 0:19:07.600 a lot in the playoffs. What Golden State now has 0:19:07.680 --> 0:19:11.080 going for them boils down to two big things. The 0:19:11.119 --> 0:19:13.879 first is they are nine to zero at home in 0:19:13.920 --> 0:19:19.800 the playoffs. Wow, that's huge. From twenty fifteen to twenty nineteen, 0:19:20.160 --> 0:19:26.320 they averaged six home losses per playoffs. This is that's stupid. 0:19:26.440 --> 0:19:29.840 That's stupid. Like they're better than they were in their reign. 0:19:30.960 --> 0:19:36.920 Why how? I don't know. Second, the fourth quarter, as 0:19:36.960 --> 0:19:41.159 per usual, has belonged to Golden State. They have outscored 0:19:41.200 --> 0:19:45.760 their opponents by twenty five points per one hundred possessions 0:19:45.760 --> 0:19:49.760 in the fourth quarter. That's the best by any team 0:19:49.760 --> 0:19:53.359 in the playoffs in any quarter ever. Like ever, this 0:19:53.560 --> 0:19:58.880 means that they they're like, get up by thirty, Get excited, 0:19:59.440 --> 0:20:02.920 get excited. First quarter, second quarter, third quarter, go up, 0:20:03.160 --> 0:20:06.639 go up on us eighteen twenty All good, Steph Curry. 0:20:06.640 --> 0:20:08.840 You'll watch him. Just watch this. Keep this in your 0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:11.320 mind's eye when you watch this. There will be a 0:20:11.400 --> 0:20:15.520 game where Boston is up like seventeen nineteen points, and 0:20:15.560 --> 0:20:18.920 then they'll cut, they'll cut to the bench and it'll 0:20:18.960 --> 0:20:21.680 be like it'll be like ten thirty in the fourth 0:20:21.720 --> 0:20:26.920 quarter and Mark Jackson or something. He'll be like, well, well, Mike, 0:20:27.280 --> 0:20:30.439 I don't know. We couldn't have seen this coming. And 0:20:30.480 --> 0:20:33.520 then as they're talking about how unprecedented this lead is 0:20:33.520 --> 0:20:36.439 for Boston, they'll show Steph Curry on the bench with 0:20:36.520 --> 0:20:40.480 a towel over his head and his little mouthguard chewing 0:20:40.560 --> 0:20:42.880 on it, and you're like, this little fucker is gonna 0:20:42.880 --> 0:20:46.160 come back in in like two minutes and it's night night, 0:20:46.600 --> 0:20:50.240 and that's what they will do. They're a team and Boston, 0:20:50.280 --> 0:20:53.639 as we know, when they get up, they can get complacent. 0:20:54.119 --> 0:20:58.240 Miami Heat came back multiple times. Milwaukee came back multiple times. 0:20:58.440 --> 0:21:00.919 If you get up on Golden's I don't care if 0:21:00.960 --> 0:21:04.520 it's thirty, keep your boots on their necks until it's 0:21:04.520 --> 0:21:07.439 whooped that trick time and you make Draymond, you know, 0:21:07.640 --> 0:21:10.520 put the towel in the air. Cause it's like, there's 0:21:10.600 --> 0:21:15.280 no insurmountable lead for this team. They are four and 0:21:15.280 --> 0:21:19.720 three when trailing after three and six and four when 0:21:19.720 --> 0:21:22.000 they fall behind by ten or more. They should be 0:21:22.280 --> 0:21:24.840 zero in ten when they fall behind by ten or 0:21:24.840 --> 0:21:26.719 more in the fourth quarter, but they are not. They 0:21:26.760 --> 0:21:29.840 are better than five hundred. No lead is safe. How 0:21:29.840 --> 0:21:32.960 about this? How about this. When they get a lead, 0:21:33.480 --> 0:21:36.280 are they four and six? No, they're eight and zero 0:21:36.359 --> 0:21:39.359 when they're leading after three quarters, So you better make 0:21:39.400 --> 0:21:42.800 sure they're not up after three quarters. They're doing this 0:21:42.880 --> 0:21:44.960 in the playoffs by their passes, as we know the 0:21:44.960 --> 0:21:48.160 beautiful game of basketball. That they play three hundred and 0:21:48.160 --> 0:21:56.520 thirty six passes per twenty four minutes. What a deluge, confusing, annoying, frustrating, tiring, 0:21:56.760 --> 0:22:01.119 and player movements. Of course, eleven point three miles traveled 0:22:01.720 --> 0:22:05.320 per twenty four minutes, both second in the NBA. They've 0:22:05.359 --> 0:22:09.359 also let all playoff teams in assist percentage. It's gonna 0:22:09.359 --> 0:22:12.520 be a challenge, folks. All these little stats, all these 0:22:12.520 --> 0:22:17.119 little nuggets. It doesn't look good for Boston. This is 0:22:17.160 --> 0:22:20.320 also gold This is Golden State's series to lose for 0:22:20.440 --> 0:22:24.800 all those reasons. In my opinion, I think that Boston 0:22:24.880 --> 0:22:28.840 poses problems for Golden State, but I think Golden State 0:22:28.920 --> 0:22:32.200 poses a lot bigger problems for Boston. I'm not saying 0:22:32.200 --> 0:22:34.359 that Boston can't win because I think Memphis could have 0:22:34.400 --> 0:22:36.960 beaten Golden State. They certainly didn't want to go back 0:22:36.960 --> 0:22:40.040 to Memphis in Game seven, and who knows what would 0:22:40.080 --> 0:22:42.600 have happened, if John Moran wouldn't have gotten injured. But 0:22:42.760 --> 0:22:45.840 like if some nuts or candies and nuts, it'd all 0:22:45.840 --> 0:22:49.240 be Christmas morning or whatever the saying is. So Boston's 0:22:49.240 --> 0:22:51.399 gonna need to win in the Bay in order to 0:22:51.440 --> 0:22:53.520 make this thing happen, and that is going to be very, 0:22:53.640 --> 0:22:56.000 very hard to do. Finally, let's talk a little bit 0:22:56.000 --> 0:22:59.080 about X factors for both teams, which is which means 0:22:59.080 --> 0:23:04.480 ancillary piece, peripheral pieces, not star players, not key role players, 0:23:04.640 --> 0:23:07.800 but ancillary players that need to step up. And who 0:23:07.840 --> 0:23:10.159 that could be for Boston. I think that's Derek White. 0:23:10.800 --> 0:23:15.520 Derek White's a very pesky perimeter defender. He's like Marcus Smart. 0:23:15.640 --> 0:23:18.080 He knows emy Udoka's system like the back of his 0:23:18.160 --> 0:23:20.440 hand because he came from San Antonio and that's the 0:23:20.480 --> 0:23:25.600 same San Antonio scheme that emay Udoka is running. He's 0:23:25.640 --> 0:23:28.080 going to be really really big in terms of hitting 0:23:28.080 --> 0:23:31.720 corner threes, hitting three pointers at the top as well. 0:23:32.160 --> 0:23:36.720 If you're open, Derek shoot, like, be confident. They're going 0:23:36.760 --> 0:23:39.040 to sag. Golden State is going to sag off of 0:23:39.119 --> 0:23:43.679 quote unquote lower shooter percentage. Guys like let the Scrub shoot, 0:23:43.880 --> 0:23:46.919 Grant Williams, Derek White. Derek White's gonna need to hit 0:23:46.920 --> 0:23:48.760 a bunch of them in order for that to change 0:23:48.840 --> 0:23:51.399 how Golden State plays their defense. He's a very very 0:23:51.400 --> 0:23:53.960 smart player at understanding angles. He's going to be able 0:23:53.960 --> 0:23:56.600 to cut Steph off instead of chasing Steph around. He's 0:23:56.600 --> 0:23:59.040 gonna be able to like almost cut the corner and 0:23:59.119 --> 0:24:03.080 stop the from coming into Stef's hands, bumping players off 0:24:03.119 --> 0:24:05.680 their spots. And if Derek White can hit those shots, 0:24:05.680 --> 0:24:08.360 I think that's gonna be a really huge factor there. 0:24:08.400 --> 0:24:10.760 That's how Dallas won Game four, by the way, open 0:24:10.760 --> 0:24:14.720 shooters in the corner who hit him night night for 0:24:14.800 --> 0:24:18.199 Golden State, I think we've already seen Andrew Wiggins emerge 0:24:18.200 --> 0:24:21.040 as a key role player. So for me, I think 0:24:21.080 --> 0:24:25.240 the series will hinge on this ancillary player, Kevon Looney. 0:24:25.520 --> 0:24:29.960 If Kevon Looney gets fifteen, sixteen, seventeen boards a game, 0:24:31.680 --> 0:24:34.960 there's just there's that's it. That's that's the key stat 0:24:35.000 --> 0:24:40.920 for me, because he's a six eleven small five who 0:24:40.920 --> 0:24:46.439 has basically played himself out of the beginning of the playoffs. 0:24:46.840 --> 0:24:49.320 They brought him back in solely because Steven Adams was 0:24:49.359 --> 0:24:52.439 playing really well, and now he has re emerged as 0:24:52.480 --> 0:24:55.200 a key cog in this system. He can play good defense, 0:24:55.880 --> 0:24:59.560 and whether he can be solid on switches or he's 0:24:59.560 --> 0:25:02.199 not getting by Tatum and Brown, that's gonna be huge. 0:25:03.000 --> 0:25:06.639 That will be the key stat for me to watch 0:25:06.880 --> 0:25:11.320 is how Kevon Looney gets rebounds offensive rebounds, specifically because 0:25:12.040 --> 0:25:17.920 Golden State getting extra possessions means nothing good for Boston. Conclusion, Boston, 0:25:17.960 --> 0:25:20.000