WEBVTT - 0429FullPodcast 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:15.520 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.560 --> 0:00:18.439 on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:23.200 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Another thing we gotta 0:00:23.239 --> 0:00:25.600 keep our eye on is the currency picture. Some weakness 0:00:25.600 --> 0:00:28.400 in the dollar today. A lot of that story is 0:00:28.440 --> 0:00:32.720 coming from Assia actually, and some stimulations coming from Asia. 0:00:32.760 --> 0:00:34.680 We'll start there and then we're gonna migrate over to Europe. 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:37.360 But to do that we bring in Christine A. Tino. 0:00:37.800 --> 0:00:39.760 She is the head of our FX rates and e 0:00:39.920 --> 0:00:42.920 M coverage at Bloomberg News, sitting in the heart of 0:00:42.960 --> 0:00:45.479 the f S base little city of London. Of course, Christine, 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:48.840 thank you as always for joining us. The currency picture 0:00:48.880 --> 0:00:51.159 has been wild this week, and I really want to know, 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:55.120 just in your professional opinion, what is really standing out 0:00:55.120 --> 0:00:58.480 to you. Well, pretty I think it really is just 0:00:58.840 --> 0:01:03.000 the play look of previous years really doesn't work anymore 0:01:03.040 --> 0:01:05.880 when it comes to the currency markets, because, as you say, 0:01:06.120 --> 0:01:07.760 on a day like today, when there's a lot of 0:01:07.840 --> 0:01:10.520 risk aversion. You would expect the dollar to be up, 0:01:10.560 --> 0:01:12.959 but clearly it is not, and that has been a 0:01:13.000 --> 0:01:16.759 function more of just how much dollar has risen over 0:01:16.800 --> 0:01:19.240 the past week that today seemed like, as you say, 0:01:19.280 --> 0:01:21.679 a good time to take some money off the table. 0:01:21.840 --> 0:01:24.760 But yeah, I think it's really you know, I've been 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:28.160 looking at these markets for the last ten years, aging 0:01:28.200 --> 0:01:31.160 myself here a little bit, but it's it's it's written 0:01:31.200 --> 0:01:35.720 really a wild time and even I myself am having 0:01:35.760 --> 0:01:39.040 to rethink just how to look at these markets because 0:01:39.080 --> 0:01:41.520 it's really nothing that we've seen before. It's definitely the 0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:47.960 post pandemic, post uh stagsflation risk sort of environment now 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:50.800 that is really quite unique. You know, I'm curious Christine 0:01:50.840 --> 0:01:54.720 about Russia for a moment here, because they owe the 0:01:54.760 --> 0:01:57.280 world to money and for now they can still in 0:01:57.360 --> 0:02:00.600 theory pay creditors back. And we have news out that 0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:02.680 said Russia moves to dodge to default with a new 0:02:02.680 --> 0:02:06.000 claim on a dollar payment made. What are the ramifications here? 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:11.560 How much longer can they keep making these payments in theory. Well, Sally, 0:02:11.639 --> 0:02:14.400 I think this development is really important to pay attention 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:18.200 to because up until today, when we got this news. 0:02:18.440 --> 0:02:21.760 It was actually difficult for Russia to UM make those 0:02:21.800 --> 0:02:25.040 payments because of the various stipulations from the U. S 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:28.119 Government as well as other governments around the world, essentially 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:31.440 stopping them from making these payments in dollars. And this 0:02:31.520 --> 0:02:35.359 is a crucial distinction because uh they had previously tried 0:02:35.400 --> 0:02:38.760 to make this payment in roubles, but of course these 0:02:38.800 --> 0:02:41.960 bonds specifically, it's in the legal documents of the bond 0:02:42.000 --> 0:02:44.919 saying that they cannot do that. And we've had um 0:02:45.200 --> 0:02:49.880 a several committee, several ratings companies weighing in saying that 0:02:49.960 --> 0:02:52.880 potentially that brings them closer to default. So this is 0:02:53.040 --> 0:02:55.800 a bit of a game changer that they are claiming 0:02:56.040 --> 0:02:58.640 they have made these dollar payments. Of course we need 0:02:58.680 --> 0:03:01.320 to find out from the very as other stakeholders, the 0:03:01.360 --> 0:03:04.520 bond holders themselves, the banks involved in this process, and 0:03:04.560 --> 0:03:07.400 of course the government is watching to see whether this 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:10.440 is actually possible. Very crucial day to watch is made 0:03:10.480 --> 0:03:13.120 the fourth, that was meant to be the end of 0:03:13.160 --> 0:03:15.799 the grace period for these big bonds that Russia is 0:03:15.800 --> 0:03:18.440 trying to make payments on. Incidently, that is also a 0:03:18.480 --> 0:03:21.040 Star Wars day for any of the Star Wars fans 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:25.320 out there, I need to watch that movie. Um So. 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:29.040 The other thing about this, though, is that listen, So 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:32.880 Russian bonds, right, certain sovereign bonds, so foreign denominated bonds, 0:03:32.919 --> 0:03:36.920 So the dollar denominated bonds had really sold off earlier 0:03:36.960 --> 0:03:40.120 this year, and some of them have bounced back a 0:03:40.120 --> 0:03:43.480 little bit. There's a really controversial thing happening in the market, Christine, 0:03:43.520 --> 0:03:46.400 where some people are saying, do we buy in because 0:03:46.680 --> 0:03:50.080 Russia is making its payments? Ay, how controversial is that? 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:53.960 And be uh you know again, how long can they 0:03:54.080 --> 0:03:56.839 keep making these payments for given that Russia is saying 0:03:56.880 --> 0:04:00.000 the US is trying to force it into a default. Well, 0:04:00.560 --> 0:04:03.160 I think there's a lot of controversy, of course, just 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:06.800 as an investor and being out there saying that, yes, 0:04:06.880 --> 0:04:10.640 I'd happily buy Russian bonds just from uh, I suppose 0:04:10.680 --> 0:04:14.240 a pr standpoint. But um also, the mechanics of it 0:04:14.280 --> 0:04:18.359 is quite difficult, because getting ahold of these bonds without 0:04:18.880 --> 0:04:23.679 breaching sanctions is incredibly difficult at the moment, and also 0:04:23.880 --> 0:04:26.040 liquidity is very very thin. Of course, you know, when 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:30.280 Russia was cut off from the global financial um uh 0:04:30.600 --> 0:04:34.440 markets with all of these sanctions, it became incredibly difficult 0:04:34.440 --> 0:04:37.839 to just trade these securities. It was for a time 0:04:38.320 --> 0:04:41.440 very very difficult to find any buyers for them when 0:04:42.000 --> 0:04:44.680 holders of these bonds originally we're trying to offload them. 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:48.120 So it's a question of both mechanics and also just 0:04:48.440 --> 0:04:53.040 uh I suppose pr Um standpoint. And now in terms 0:04:53.080 --> 0:04:56.880 of making these payments again, there's a lot of mechanics 0:04:56.920 --> 0:04:59.520 involved in this and and a lot of confusion still over. 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:02.880 You know, even if Russia attempts to make these payments, 0:05:02.920 --> 0:05:06.760 will these actually be accepted as legitimate payments? Again, because 0:05:06.760 --> 0:05:12.000 of the complexity of the whole sanctions regime, and there 0:05:12.000 --> 0:05:14.479 are many, many lawyers involved who are all trying to 0:05:14.520 --> 0:05:17.640 figure out what is actually legitimate what would be considered 0:05:17.640 --> 0:05:19.719 a default. I think May the fourth will be very 0:05:19.800 --> 0:05:22.240 interesting to watch for sure. May fourth, I believe also 0:05:22.279 --> 0:05:24.200 the f o MC meeting. And remember, on top of 0:05:24.200 --> 0:05:26.200 that you have these gas flows. A lot going on 0:05:26.320 --> 0:05:28.599 here when it comes to the rule payments, and of 0:05:28.640 --> 0:05:31.080 course we will keep you on that. We're looking at 0:05:31.120 --> 0:05:33.279 a stronger ruble today, but of course a lot of 0:05:33.320 --> 0:05:36.320 that coming down from the market. Christina Kino, head of 0:05:36.360 --> 0:05:38.599 f FX Rates and E M coming out in London. 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:45.880 Thank you m these markets. I mean, is it inflation? 0:05:45.920 --> 0:05:48.480 To Holly, I can't really tell what's driving this because 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:51.040 the companies that are driving the sell off are also 0:05:51.080 --> 0:05:54.680 the company's best positioned to weather some of these issues. 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:58.120 So I'm confused. Yeah, I mean, and also you look 0:05:58.160 --> 0:05:59.920 at kind of the flattening of the yield's curve and 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:02.440 end this week, and you wonder what investors are thinking. 0:06:02.480 --> 0:06:04.919 Are they how worried are they about slowing growth? Is 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:08.040 its stagflation? And how much is the our word recession 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:10.680 really coming up in conversations in the background. Lots of 0:06:10.760 --> 0:06:13.120 questions here, yeah, a lot of growth scares and and 0:06:13.200 --> 0:06:15.279 you know, there's really no one better to break this 0:06:15.400 --> 0:06:18.560 down with than Mark Stogel, our next guest here, CEO 0:06:18.960 --> 0:06:21.960 and portfolio manager of Adams Funds. He of course gonna 0:06:22.000 --> 0:06:28.160 know everything about investing economy, uh the Fed in two Mark, 0:06:28.240 --> 0:06:30.680 thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciated. 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:34.560 Basically you were sold to us as a no all 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:37.720 seen all markets gurus. That's where we're going to start 0:06:38.000 --> 0:06:41.279 with intro. I mean, he's a good he's a good guest. 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:45.360 I'm just trying to prepare our audience mark, Why are 0:06:45.360 --> 0:06:49.200 the markets selling off? What's the problem here? I think 0:06:49.200 --> 0:06:52.280 it's a couple of things. The first in you in 0:06:52.520 --> 0:06:56.000 your in your intro, you uh you hit on it UM. 0:06:56.000 --> 0:06:59.000 There's a lot of uncertainty, and we we've known for 0:06:59.000 --> 0:07:03.240 forever that the market doesn't like uncertainty. And I think 0:07:03.279 --> 0:07:07.320 that people have systematically been taking risk off of the table. 0:07:07.560 --> 0:07:11.400 And part of that is represented in the tech stocks 0:07:11.400 --> 0:07:13.520 that have that that have gotten hit, and part of 0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:15.520 that isn't many of the other stocks that have gotten 0:07:15.600 --> 0:07:18.480 hit UM. And I think that in a in an 0:07:19.040 --> 0:07:23.160 in an environment where uh, there is there is unknown, 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:25.800 and the people are going to take risk off. And 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:28.600 I do think that there was a lot made about 0:07:28.640 --> 0:07:33.200 the tech um tech earnings. I think tech came through it, 0:07:33.280 --> 0:07:36.640 big tech, big quality tech came through it. UM I 0:07:36.680 --> 0:07:39.720 think pretty well. I think the challenges now that we've 0:07:39.720 --> 0:07:41.960 gotten through that, there was I think you you both 0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:44.960 probably heard the collective side of relief when Avanzade didn't 0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:46.880 spit it yesterday. I think that was a good thing 0:07:46.920 --> 0:07:49.640 for the market. But we're gonna roll into next week 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:52.320 and the FED is going to be front and center again, 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:57.120 and so we go from concerns about technology, about about stocks, 0:07:57.840 --> 0:08:00.800 about the third year, about about inflation, and then we're 0:08:00.800 --> 0:08:04.240 going to pivot over next week into the FED. Are 0:08:04.240 --> 0:08:05.840 they going to raise fifty what are they going to 0:08:05.960 --> 0:08:09.480 say about next month the June meeting. So there's a 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:13.960 significant amount of uncertainty, and in those environments, people are 0:08:14.120 --> 0:08:16.720 very happy to take some money off the table, and 0:08:16.760 --> 0:08:19.040 I think that a lot of what you're seeing, it's 0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:21.160 a lot of money off the table. Really. I mean 0:08:21.200 --> 0:08:23.040 the fact that we mean, Katty, have been talking about 0:08:23.040 --> 0:08:25.040 the fact that the monthly decline you're going to see 0:08:25.080 --> 0:08:28.760 is the worst you've seen since March, that's when COVID 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:31.480 came around the US. So you know, that's a really 0:08:31.560 --> 0:08:35.400 big it's a significant that's a significant move that you're seeing. 0:08:35.679 --> 0:08:38.160 And to the point you made on technology, I mean Amazon, 0:08:38.320 --> 0:08:42.959 Amazon is down the most since at least and so 0:08:43.200 --> 0:08:45.080 what what is going on here? I mean, is this 0:08:45.160 --> 0:08:48.520 a rerating? Well, I I think it's I think it's 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:50.880 a couple of things. And I'm sure both of you 0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:54.719 have have have seen this study that was done and 0:08:55.040 --> 0:08:56.720 I and I like to talk. I like to bring 0:08:56.720 --> 0:09:01.240 it up in situations like this, The average investor that 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:04.400 invests in an S and P five hundred index fund 0:09:05.360 --> 0:09:09.720 never gets that return because they trade it. And I 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:13.240 think that's one of the challenges for investors is they 0:09:13.320 --> 0:09:16.520 do jump out at about the wrong time. And I 0:09:16.559 --> 0:09:18.679 think that's if you're a long term investor, unless you're 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:20.880 a trader. And there's nothing wrong with being a trader. 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:22.160 I think that, you know, a lot of people can 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:29.520 make money being there. I'm getting them, giving them the 0:09:29.520 --> 0:09:31.520 benefit of the doubt. But I will tell you most 0:09:31.559 --> 0:09:34.120 of us are not traders, and we shouldn't be traders. 0:09:34.120 --> 0:09:36.120 Were not set up to do that. What we are 0:09:36.160 --> 0:09:38.000 set up to do. We should be able to do 0:09:38.320 --> 0:09:41.839 is invest with a longer term horizon. And but but 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:44.480 a lot of investors are having a hard time do that. 0:09:44.520 --> 0:09:46.920 They get emotional, they say, wow, you know the FEDS 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:49.480 inflation is going to do this. I I know it 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:52.280 in my coffee, I know it in my fride lunches 0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:54.400 that I get, I know it all of these places 0:09:54.440 --> 0:09:56.080 that that I that that that I've seen, I can 0:09:56.120 --> 0:09:58.760 see it. So that must be a really bad thing, 0:09:59.440 --> 0:10:01.959 and it not. It isn't necessarily if you have a 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:05.080 one or two or three year horizon, you shouldn't be you. 0:10:05.160 --> 0:10:08.360 We shouldn't see the redemptions and the outflows as much 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:11.000 as we have been. But it's human nature. As much 0:10:11.040 --> 0:10:12.640 as I like to talk about it and try to 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:15.559 convince people that they need to have longer horizons, it's 0:10:15.600 --> 0:10:17.680 a hard thing to do. Now. Do I think that 0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:21.160 Amazon had a difficult quarter? I do. I talked about 0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:25.000 that a lot this morning and earlier, and I think that. 0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:27.680 But if I was, if I didn't own it, and 0:10:27.760 --> 0:10:30.240 I was a long term investor, would I begin to 0:10:30.280 --> 0:10:32.760 buy some Amazon here? I probably would, you know, in 0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:35.720 this general area, I probably would. And we'll we'll see 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:39.000 if other people share that view. Mark Socle, We're always 0:10:39.000 --> 0:10:40.800 short on time with you, but we really appreciate you 0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:44.560 joining us CEO and portfolio manager of Adams Funds, talking 0:10:44.600 --> 0:10:47.440 of course about all things tech and how we sell it. 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:53.000 Next week a huge, huge week for markets, the f 0:10:53.040 --> 0:10:56.480 o MC meeting and the OPAC meeting not getting enough 0:10:56.520 --> 0:10:58.520 attention in my view that we are coming up on 0:10:58.559 --> 0:11:03.120 another OPAC meeting at a time when commandity prices remain high, 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:06.280 inflation is still high, and a lot of red on 0:11:06.280 --> 0:11:09.680 the screen coming from growth worries. It's amazing. Uh, energy 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:13.240 has politicized, energy is weaponized. It is certainly the story 0:11:13.400 --> 0:11:16.079 of the year, and and a lot of uncertainty on 0:11:16.200 --> 0:11:18.720 where oil and gas prices will go. Yeah, and then 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:20.439 let's bring it full circle right back here to the 0:11:20.480 --> 0:11:24.280 equity picture and the earnings picture in particular EXN Mobile, 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:28.559 Chevron both reporting some pretty blockbuster profits. I believe the 0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:31.120 biggest profits going back to I want to over a 0:11:31.200 --> 0:11:33.960 decade um when it comes to these oil companies, no surprise, 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:37.800 able to really take advantage of these higher prices. Let's 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:40.400 break it all down with a true expert, Simon Casey, 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:43.960 the deputy managing editor of our Bloomberg coverage of our 0:11:44.040 --> 0:11:48.000 energy commodities coverage. Simon, thank you as always for joining us. 0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:51.560 We were at Sarah Week a couple of months ago, 0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:54.720 two months ago, ish um and to our audience, Sarah 0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:57.280 Week is the largest energy conference I believe in the 0:11:57.280 --> 0:12:00.079 world's hosted in Houston. All the big wigs from so 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:02.920 on to Chevron to OPEC really go there and talk 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:05.400 about what's going on. And Simon, from what I remember, 0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:08.719 the biggest issue there was at a time when we 0:12:08.800 --> 0:12:11.520 need there was there's all these calls to ramp up production. 0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:14.520 The energy space in the US or the energy industry 0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:16.640 in the US are saying, well, we don't have the 0:12:16.720 --> 0:12:20.840 capacity to do that, just given the legacy of the pandemic. 0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:24.520 Where are we on that, Oh, that's right. I mean, 0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:27.559 it's like they said, we can't and in case, we're 0:12:27.559 --> 0:12:29.760 not really sure we want to, and we're not even 0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:32.800 sure we're going to be allowed to because investors are 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:37.079 going to punish us essentially for for for reacting to 0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:39.880 to higher prices. You know, two months down the line 0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:44.240 from that conference, not one has changed any sort of 0:12:44.360 --> 0:12:47.040 production increases we've seen so far this earning season, I 0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:50.680 mean pretty sort of incremental. Chevron x On this morning 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:53.720 come out with, you know, some pretty impressive results on 0:12:53.760 --> 0:12:57.840 the whole that they did miss the consensus f for 0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:00.360 for earnings to share both of them, there are some 0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:04.720 slight issues there on their refining business, various cost issues, 0:13:05.120 --> 0:13:07.760 timing issues. I mean, if you can see past that, 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:10.400 you know, these are very robust earnings. But they both 0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:13.920 companies have come out and said we're not planning to 0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:16.559 spend increased spending at all, and in fact, x On 0:13:16.679 --> 0:13:20.439 I think is likely down on a on a run 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:22.760 rate so far for the first quarter, it's on course 0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:26.199 to spend below what it was forecasting for the full year. 0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:28.880 I mean, I'm sure might speed up towards the end 0:13:28.880 --> 0:13:32.320 of the year. Um Chevron is keeping, you know, keeping 0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:36.920 spending tight. Um. There's the big scene this morning with 0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:38.839 our story. We'll be going with us the share buy 0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:42.640 backs that both companies have have given updates on. XN 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:45.959 is tripling its plans shared by back to billion dollars. 0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:48.920 They have a lot of cash. They are giving no 0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:50.760 indication they're going to go out and do any deals 0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:53.520 that would be a surprise, and they're not spending it 0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:57.000 on capex. They are spending it on buy backs at 0:13:57.000 --> 0:14:00.840 the moment, and Excells earnings called just ended, and big 0:14:00.880 --> 0:14:03.040 message from that was also that they are being very 0:14:03.040 --> 0:14:06.959 conservative on that cash management, that building up reserves. They 0:14:07.080 --> 0:14:10.000 been through a very difficult to an off your period 0:14:10.360 --> 0:14:14.160 and they some some valuable lessons for that. I think 0:14:14.160 --> 0:14:18.559 what's fascinating here and and for our radio listeners worldwide, 0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:21.840 we want to really emphasize what Simon just brought up there, 0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:26.160 the idea that this caution in spending really is a 0:14:26.200 --> 0:14:29.480 byproduct of history, The idea that this is a sector 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:32.360 that has been lagging for so long that have investors 0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:35.880 have really been hesitant to hop into an equity market 0:14:35.920 --> 0:14:38.640 and the bond market. I might add the energy sector 0:14:38.680 --> 0:14:40.640 making up I believe a good chunk of the high 0:14:40.720 --> 0:14:43.160 yield market as well. And this really comes from this 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:46.600 idea of drill, baby, drill, and and and this legacy 0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:48.680 of that. They don't want to go through that because 0:14:48.680 --> 0:14:51.480 then you get cut off from these funding streams, from 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:54.280 these capital markets, and then you can't pay your workers, 0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:57.000 you can't expand you can't grow, and naturally you get 0:14:57.040 --> 0:14:59.520 punished for it in the stock market. Simon, Let's talk 0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:02.240 about the other side of the equation. UM generally at 0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:05.240 the top of this block said that oil is politicized 0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:09.800 very often. The Biden administration very vocal about ramping up production. 0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:13.200 I feel like we've just discussed the internal dynamics of 0:15:13.240 --> 0:15:17.240 the shale industry. Let's talk about this from the global perspective. 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:20.640 An OPEC meeting coming next week. But it seems like 0:15:20.720 --> 0:15:22.920 this is a problem, This ramp up, this caution is 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:27.320 a problem worldwide, from OPEC to Europe to Russia, UM 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:30.760 and even the Biden administration. Yeah, I mean, we got 0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:34.080 that we've we've we're now kind of got used to 0:15:34.520 --> 0:15:38.160 monthly MOPEC meetings, which is nuts. Then the one next week, 0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:42.920 um that we expect it will be another routine in 0:15:42.960 --> 0:15:46.960 production increase in line with what you know, over a 0:15:47.040 --> 0:15:49.480 year now they've been doing these production increases about four 0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:55.520 barrels of oil per day extra more or less as 0:15:55.520 --> 0:16:01.800 OPEC gradually manages this production recovery from the massive cuts 0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:06.960 they implemented during the early days of pandemic um OPEQ 0:16:07.200 --> 0:16:10.880 and you know, ope, we largely read Saudi Arabia here 0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:16.320 the superpower. You know, OPEC has been and eaves continue 0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:20.000 to be very resistant to demands from from administration to 0:16:20.200 --> 0:16:24.920 increase production. And you know, the lesson the impact on 0:16:24.280 --> 0:16:29.800 on the consumers and lower gasoline prices combat inflation. They 0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:32.360 don't want to hear it. The Saudies are very happy 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:35.200 and why wouldn't they be. And we've got a crew 0:16:35.240 --> 0:16:38.960 prices you around about a hundred dollars right now. Um. 0:16:39.040 --> 0:16:41.480 You know, Grant is trading up with around a hundred 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:45.360 and ten h This this suit Saudi. The Saudi is 0:16:45.440 --> 0:16:49.240 fantastically because of course, you know, the economy is doing 0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:52.560 very well. They're no longer having to fund any kind 0:16:52.560 --> 0:16:55.320 of deficits where compared with all where prices were a 0:16:55.400 --> 0:16:58.360 year ago. And you know, you're sitting up really well, 0:16:58.400 --> 0:17:00.240 and I'm wondering if you'll set us up a little 0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:03.240 more next week ahead of opaque meeting And just thirty 0:17:03.240 --> 0:17:06.760 seconds here, what are you watching for? The don't fact 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:08.720 meeting is going to be pretty perfunctory. I mean, there's 0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:11.240 always the chance that we can see a surprise, but honestly, 0:17:11.320 --> 0:17:14.280 it'll be like if the last year has been any guide, 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:19.119 It'll be very short, still announced the decision. It's like 0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:22.119 a rubber stamp essentially. I mean, look beyond that, what 0:17:22.240 --> 0:17:27.320 we're looking at is really Chinese demand. The lockdown in China, 0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:30.760 the world's second largest oil market, that's undoubtitely having a 0:17:30.800 --> 0:17:34.159 major impact on demand. That's God's trade is extremely worried. 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:37.920 And then we're looking for further developments in situation regarding 0:17:37.960 --> 0:17:42.399 Europe and possible sanctions on oil oil Russian oil. I 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:46.440 think that that could be really big, fascinating stuff. Simon Caseley, 0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:48.760 a true expert on the energy and commanding space and 0:17:48.800 --> 0:17:52.160 deputy managing editor of our energy coverage here in the States. 0:17:52.240 --> 0:17:58.040 We thank you so much for your time. There's a 0:17:58.119 --> 0:18:01.280 very special guest here as we talk about the war 0:18:01.359 --> 0:18:04.440 in Ukraine, as we talk about what the United States 0:18:04.440 --> 0:18:07.840 can actually do, we have no better guests than James Stravites. 0:18:07.920 --> 0:18:11.320 Admiral James Trevis, I should say of the United States Navy. 0:18:11.359 --> 0:18:14.800 He's retired after having spent thirty seven years with them, 0:18:14.920 --> 0:18:18.439 also a contributor to Bloomberg Opinion. Admiral, thank you as 0:18:18.480 --> 0:18:22.879 always for joining us. Let's take this conversation very seriously. 0:18:23.440 --> 0:18:28.000 Is the United States doing everything it can do? Almost 0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:33.000 We have provided billions of dollars of aid, We have 0:18:33.119 --> 0:18:37.760 put highly advanced weapons in the hands of the Ukrainians. Um, 0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:42.120 we have done just about everything we can to. Remaining 0:18:42.240 --> 0:18:45.560 things that I think you'll see the administration move on 0:18:45.840 --> 0:18:53.159 fairly soon are providing longer range anti ship missiles. And 0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:56.280 this is because the Black Sea is important to Russian 0:18:56.280 --> 0:19:00.440 warships dominated Ukrainians sank one a couple of weeks ago, 0:19:00.520 --> 0:19:03.879 the flagship. They need more weapons to reach out and 0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:08.280 touch those worships in the Black Sea. And secondly, they 0:19:08.400 --> 0:19:12.959 still need high performance combat aircraft so they can control 0:19:13.080 --> 0:19:16.359 the skies over Ukraine. These will come in the form 0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:20.040 of mid twenty nine, which will be provided by UM 0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:24.120 NATO allies, and then we the United States will backfill 0:19:24.400 --> 0:19:28.359 those two processes I believe are in motion. Um. Other 0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:31.000 than that, we have done everything we can to put 0:19:31.000 --> 0:19:33.600 the tools in the hands of the Ukrainians so they 0:19:33.600 --> 0:19:37.200 can finish the job. You know. Pretty recently you've also written, 0:19:37.320 --> 0:19:40.080 in addition to kind of you know, speaking about the 0:19:40.119 --> 0:19:43.320 actual weapons themselves, you've written that the deadliest weapon in 0:19:43.440 --> 0:19:46.800 Ukraine is a cell phone. What exactly do you mean 0:19:47.000 --> 0:19:51.520 when this comes to information warfare? Yeah, we are engaged 0:19:51.560 --> 0:19:54.320 in a real battle for the truth. And what I 0:19:54.359 --> 0:19:57.800 mean by that is, uh, the war crimes that are 0:19:57.800 --> 0:20:01.520 being committed every single day by the Russian military, and 0:20:01.560 --> 0:20:05.640 we've seen powerful evidence of this from places like Busha 0:20:05.720 --> 0:20:09.480 on the outskirts of Kiev. Where did we get that evidence. 0:20:09.920 --> 0:20:13.400 We got it from cell phones, from videos taken by 0:20:13.760 --> 0:20:18.040 ordinary Ukrainians who then used those supercomputers not only to 0:20:18.160 --> 0:20:22.040 record these crimes, but to upbload them into the Internet 0:20:22.440 --> 0:20:26.160 move them forward. And we've got to get that information 0:20:26.240 --> 0:20:30.159 out in the broader world, because although we are convinced 0:20:30.160 --> 0:20:32.320 in the United States and in NATO and in the 0:20:32.359 --> 0:20:36.720 Western democracies. There are still big parts of the world 0:20:36.840 --> 0:20:40.760 in Sub Saharan Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, South Asia 0:20:41.080 --> 0:20:45.800 that are as yet not completely convinced about the awful 0:20:45.880 --> 0:20:49.240 actions of Russia. We need to make that case with 0:20:49.320 --> 0:20:52.760 those swing voters in that part of the world as well. 0:20:52.880 --> 0:20:57.640 The cell phone and video can help us do that. Admiral, 0:20:57.800 --> 0:21:00.600 you also have quite the resume when it comes to 0:21:00.720 --> 0:21:04.840 NATO as well. We know Sweden Finland looking to join 0:21:04.960 --> 0:21:09.720 NATO in particular, what kind of reaction can we expect 0:21:09.760 --> 0:21:13.119 from Russia and arguably from China as well? As we 0:21:13.240 --> 0:21:18.080 see the NATO presence in the NATO membership growing um. 0:21:19.000 --> 0:21:23.879 Sweden and Finland have highly, highly capable militaries. They are 0:21:24.080 --> 0:21:29.320 very advanced economies. These are techno democracies of the first order. 0:21:29.680 --> 0:21:32.960 I commanded Swedish and Finnish troops. They were under my 0:21:33.040 --> 0:21:36.840 command in Afghanistan. They were part of the NATO mission 0:21:36.880 --> 0:21:42.040 to Afghanistan. So the quality of those nations, who also 0:21:42.680 --> 0:21:45.399 spend a great deal on defense. If you add up 0:21:45.440 --> 0:21:49.359 the defense budgets of Sweden and Finland, they are about 0:21:49.359 --> 0:21:52.960 one fourth the budget of Russia. So this would be 0:21:53.160 --> 0:21:58.359 a significant addition to NATO. In terms of Russian reaction, Uh, 0:21:58.640 --> 0:22:01.360 the Russians will hate it. And that's a good thing. 0:22:01.880 --> 0:22:06.160 Vladimir Putin needs to reap what he has sown, and 0:22:06.240 --> 0:22:11.040 the consequences of evading a democracy like Ukraine are going 0:22:11.119 --> 0:22:15.920 to be that other. Uh, democracies like Sweden and Finland 0:22:15.960 --> 0:22:19.800 look at what happened to Ukraine and say, I think 0:22:19.840 --> 0:22:22.720 I would like a NATO membership card. We had to 0:22:22.760 --> 0:22:26.040 bring him aboard. I think it'll deter Putin. He'll be angry. 0:22:26.080 --> 0:22:28.360 There's very little he can do about it. Yeah, I'm 0:22:28.359 --> 0:22:30.680 wondering if you can, Admiral, give us a little bit 0:22:30.720 --> 0:22:34.920 of understanding an analysis here about who are actually dealing with? 0:22:34.960 --> 0:22:37.240