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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside

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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring

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Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

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Speaker 1: on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Another thing we gotta

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Speaker 1: keep our eye on is the currency picture. Some weakness

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Speaker 1: in the dollar today. A lot of that story is

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Speaker 1: coming from Assia actually, and some stimulations coming from Asia.

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Speaker 1: We'll start there and then we're gonna migrate over to Europe.

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Speaker 1: But to do that we bring in Christine A. Tino.

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Speaker 1: She is the head of our FX rates and e

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Speaker 1: M coverage at Bloomberg News, sitting in the heart of

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Speaker 1: the f S base little city of London. Of course, Christine,

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Speaker 1: thank you as always for joining us. The currency picture

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Speaker 1: has been wild this week, and I really want to know,

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Speaker 1: just in your professional opinion, what is really standing out

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Speaker 1: to you. Well, pretty I think it really is just

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Speaker 1: the play look of previous years really doesn't work anymore

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Speaker 1: when it comes to the currency markets, because, as you say,

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Speaker 1: on a day like today, when there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: risk aversion. You would expect the dollar to be up,

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Speaker 1: but clearly it is not, and that has been a

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Speaker 1: function more of just how much dollar has risen over

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Speaker 1: the past week that today seemed like, as you say,

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Speaker 1: a good time to take some money off the table.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I think it's really you know, I've been

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Speaker 1: looking at these markets for the last ten years, aging

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Speaker 1: myself here a little bit, but it's it's it's written

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Speaker 1: really a wild time and even I myself am having

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Speaker 1: to rethink just how to look at these markets because

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Speaker 1: it's really nothing that we've seen before. It's definitely the

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Speaker 1: post pandemic, post uh stagsflation risk sort of environment now

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Speaker 1: that is really quite unique. You know, I'm curious Christine

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Speaker 1: about Russia for a moment here, because they owe the

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Speaker 1: world to money and for now they can still in

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Speaker 1: theory pay creditors back. And we have news out that

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Speaker 1: said Russia moves to dodge to default with a new

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Speaker 1: claim on a dollar payment made. What are the ramifications here?

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Speaker 1: How much longer can they keep making these payments in theory. Well, Sally,

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Speaker 1: I think this development is really important to pay attention

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Speaker 1: to because up until today, when we got this news.

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Speaker 1: It was actually difficult for Russia to UM make those

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Speaker 1: payments because of the various stipulations from the U. S

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Speaker 1: Government as well as other governments around the world, essentially

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Speaker 1: stopping them from making these payments in dollars. And this

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Speaker 1: is a crucial distinction because uh they had previously tried

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Speaker 1: to make this payment in roubles, but of course these

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Speaker 1: bonds specifically, it's in the legal documents of the bond

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Speaker 1: saying that they cannot do that. And we've had um

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Speaker 1: a several committee, several ratings companies weighing in saying that

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Speaker 1: potentially that brings them closer to default. So this is

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Speaker 1: a bit of a game changer that they are claiming

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Speaker 1: they have made these dollar payments. Of course we need

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Speaker 1: to find out from the very as other stakeholders, the

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Speaker 1: bond holders themselves, the banks involved in this process, and

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Speaker 1: of course the government is watching to see whether this

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Speaker 1: is actually possible. Very crucial day to watch is made

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Speaker 1: the fourth, that was meant to be the end of

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Speaker 1: the grace period for these big bonds that Russia is

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Speaker 1: trying to make payments on. Incidently, that is also a

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Speaker 1: Star Wars day for any of the Star Wars fans

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Speaker 1: out there, I need to watch that movie. Um So.

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Speaker 1: The other thing about this, though, is that listen, So

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Speaker 1: Russian bonds, right, certain sovereign bonds, so foreign denominated bonds,

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Speaker 1: So the dollar denominated bonds had really sold off earlier

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Speaker 1: this year, and some of them have bounced back a

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Speaker 1: little bit. There's a really controversial thing happening in the market, Christine,

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Speaker 1: where some people are saying, do we buy in because

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Speaker 1: Russia is making its payments? Ay, how controversial is that?

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Speaker 1: And be uh you know again, how long can they

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Speaker 1: keep making these payments for given that Russia is saying

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Speaker 1: the US is trying to force it into a default. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of controversy, of course, just

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Speaker 1: as an investor and being out there saying that, yes,

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Speaker 1: I'd happily buy Russian bonds just from uh, I suppose

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Speaker 1: a pr standpoint. But um also, the mechanics of it

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Speaker 1: is quite difficult, because getting ahold of these bonds without

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Speaker 1: breaching sanctions is incredibly difficult at the moment, and also

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Speaker 1: liquidity is very very thin. Of course, you know, when

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Speaker 1: Russia was cut off from the global financial um uh

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Speaker 1: markets with all of these sanctions, it became incredibly difficult

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Speaker 1: to just trade these securities. It was for a time

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Speaker 1: very very difficult to find any buyers for them when

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Speaker 1: holders of these bonds originally we're trying to offload them.

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Speaker 1: So it's a question of both mechanics and also just

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Speaker 1: uh I suppose pr Um standpoint. And now in terms

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Speaker 1: of making these payments again, there's a lot of mechanics

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Speaker 1: involved in this and and a lot of confusion still over.

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Speaker 1: You know, even if Russia attempts to make these payments,

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Speaker 1: will these actually be accepted as legitimate payments? Again, because

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Speaker 1: of the complexity of the whole sanctions regime, and there

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Speaker 1: are many, many lawyers involved who are all trying to

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Speaker 1: figure out what is actually legitimate what would be considered

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Speaker 1: a default. I think May the fourth will be very

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Speaker 1: interesting to watch for sure. May fourth, I believe also

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Speaker 1: the f o MC meeting. And remember, on top of

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Speaker 1: that you have these gas flows. A lot going on

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Speaker 1: here when it comes to the rule payments, and of

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Speaker 1: course we will keep you on that. We're looking at

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Speaker 1: a stronger ruble today, but of course a lot of

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Speaker 1: that coming down from the market. Christina Kino, head of

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Speaker 1: f FX Rates and E M coming out in London.

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Speaker 1: Thank you m these markets. I mean, is it inflation?

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Speaker 1: To Holly, I can't really tell what's driving this because

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Speaker 1: the companies that are driving the sell off are also

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Speaker 1: the company's best positioned to weather some of these issues.

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Speaker 1: So I'm confused. Yeah, I mean, and also you look

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Speaker 1: at kind of the flattening of the yield's curve and

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Speaker 1: end this week, and you wonder what investors are thinking.

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Speaker 1: Are they how worried are they about slowing growth? Is

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Speaker 1: its stagflation? And how much is the our word recession

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Speaker 1: really coming up in conversations in the background. Lots of

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Speaker 1: questions here, yeah, a lot of growth scares and and

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Speaker 1: you know, there's really no one better to break this

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Speaker 1: down with than Mark Stogel, our next guest here, CEO

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Speaker 1: and portfolio manager of Adams Funds. He of course gonna

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Speaker 1: know everything about investing economy, uh the Fed in two Mark,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciated.

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Speaker 1: Basically you were sold to us as a no all

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Speaker 1: seen all markets gurus. That's where we're going to start

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Speaker 1: with intro. I mean, he's a good he's a good guest.

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Speaker 1: I'm just trying to prepare our audience mark, Why are

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Speaker 1: the markets selling off? What's the problem here? I think

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Speaker 1: it's a couple of things. The first in you in

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Speaker 1: your in your intro, you uh you hit on it UM.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of uncertainty, and we we've known for

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Speaker 1: forever that the market doesn't like uncertainty. And I think

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Speaker 1: that people have systematically been taking risk off of the table.

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Speaker 1: And part of that is represented in the tech stocks

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Speaker 1: that have that that have gotten hit, and part of

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Speaker 1: that isn't many of the other stocks that have gotten

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Speaker 1: hit UM. And I think that in a in an

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Speaker 1: in an environment where uh, there is there is unknown,

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Speaker 1: and the people are going to take risk off. And

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Speaker 1: I do think that there was a lot made about

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Speaker 1: the tech um tech earnings. I think tech came through it,

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Speaker 1: big tech, big quality tech came through it. UM I

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Speaker 1: think pretty well. I think the challenges now that we've

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Speaker 1: gotten through that, there was I think you you both

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Speaker 1: probably heard the collective side of relief when Avanzade didn't

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Speaker 1: spit it yesterday. I think that was a good thing

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Speaker 1: for the market. But we're gonna roll into next week

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Speaker 1: and the FED is going to be front and center again,

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Speaker 1: and so we go from concerns about technology, about about stocks,

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Speaker 1: about the third year, about about inflation, and then we're

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Speaker 1: going to pivot over next week into the FED. Are

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Speaker 1: they going to raise fifty what are they going to

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Speaker 1: say about next month the June meeting. So there's a

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Speaker 1: significant amount of uncertainty, and in those environments, people are

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Speaker 1: very happy to take some money off the table, and

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Speaker 1: I think that a lot of what you're seeing, it's

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Speaker 1: a lot of money off the table. Really. I mean

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Speaker 1: the fact that we mean, Katty, have been talking about

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Speaker 1: the fact that the monthly decline you're going to see

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Speaker 1: is the worst you've seen since March, that's when COVID

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Speaker 1: came around the US. So you know, that's a really

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Speaker 1: big it's a significant that's a significant move that you're seeing.

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Speaker 1: And to the point you made on technology, I mean Amazon,

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Speaker 1: Amazon is down the most since at least and so

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Speaker 1: what what is going on here? I mean, is this

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Speaker 1: a rerating? Well, I I think it's I think it's

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Speaker 1: a couple of things. And I'm sure both of you

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Speaker 1: have have have seen this study that was done and

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Speaker 1: I and I like to talk. I like to bring

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Speaker 1: it up in situations like this, The average investor that

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Speaker 1: invests in an S and P five hundred index fund

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Speaker 1: never gets that return because they trade it. And I

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Speaker 1: think that's one of the challenges for investors is they

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Speaker 1: do jump out at about the wrong time. And I

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Speaker 1: think that's if you're a long term investor, unless you're

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Speaker 1: a trader. And there's nothing wrong with being a trader.

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Speaker 1: I think that, you know, a lot of people can

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Speaker 1: make money being there. I'm getting them, giving them the

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Speaker 1: benefit of the doubt. But I will tell you most

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Speaker 1: of us are not traders, and we shouldn't be traders.

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Speaker 1: Were not set up to do that. What we are

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Speaker 1: set up to do. We should be able to do

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Speaker 1: is invest with a longer term horizon. And but but

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Speaker 1: a lot of investors are having a hard time do that.

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Speaker 1: They get emotional, they say, wow, you know the FEDS

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Speaker 1: inflation is going to do this. I I know it

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Speaker 1: in my coffee, I know it in my fride lunches

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Speaker 1: that I get, I know it all of these places

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Speaker 1: that that I that that that I've seen, I can

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Speaker 1: see it. So that must be a really bad thing,

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Speaker 1: and it not. It isn't necessarily if you have a

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Speaker 1: one or two or three year horizon, you shouldn't be you.

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Speaker 1: We shouldn't see the redemptions and the outflows as much

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Speaker 1: as we have been. But it's human nature. As much

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Speaker 1: as I like to talk about it and try to

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Speaker 1: convince people that they need to have longer horizons, it's

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Speaker 1: a hard thing to do. Now. Do I think that

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Speaker 1: Amazon had a difficult quarter? I do. I talked about

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Speaker 1: that a lot this morning and earlier, and I think that.

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Speaker 1: But if I was, if I didn't own it, and

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Speaker 1: I was a long term investor, would I begin to

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Speaker 1: buy some Amazon here? I probably would, you know, in

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Speaker 1: this general area, I probably would. And we'll we'll see

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Speaker 1: if other people share that view. Mark Socle, We're always

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Speaker 1: short on time with you, but we really appreciate you

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Speaker 1: joining us CEO and portfolio manager of Adams Funds, talking

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Speaker 1: of course about all things tech and how we sell it.

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Speaker 1: Next week a huge, huge week for markets, the f

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Speaker 1: o MC meeting and the OPAC meeting not getting enough

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Speaker 1: attention in my view that we are coming up on

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Speaker 1: another OPAC meeting at a time when commandity prices remain high,

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Speaker 1: inflation is still high, and a lot of red on

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Speaker 1: the screen coming from growth worries. It's amazing. Uh, energy

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Speaker 1: has politicized, energy is weaponized. It is certainly the story

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Speaker 1: of the year, and and a lot of uncertainty on

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Speaker 1: where oil and gas prices will go. Yeah, and then

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Speaker 1: let's bring it full circle right back here to the

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Speaker 1: equity picture and the earnings picture in particular EXN Mobile,

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Speaker 1: Chevron both reporting some pretty blockbuster profits. I believe the

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Speaker 1: biggest profits going back to I want to over a

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Speaker 1: decade um when it comes to these oil companies, no surprise,

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Speaker 1: able to really take advantage of these higher prices. Let's

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Speaker 1: break it all down with a true expert, Simon Casey,

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Speaker 1: the deputy managing editor of our Bloomberg coverage of our

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Speaker 1: energy commodities coverage. Simon, thank you as always for joining us.

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Speaker 1: We were at Sarah Week a couple of months ago,

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Speaker 1: two months ago, ish um and to our audience, Sarah

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Speaker 1: Week is the largest energy conference I believe in the

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Speaker 1: world's hosted in Houston. All the big wigs from so

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Speaker 1: on to Chevron to OPEC really go there and talk

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Speaker 1: about what's going on. And Simon, from what I remember,

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Speaker 1: the biggest issue there was at a time when we

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Speaker 1: need there was there's all these calls to ramp up production.

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Speaker 1: The energy space in the US or the energy industry

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Speaker 1: in the US are saying, well, we don't have the

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Speaker 1: capacity to do that, just given the legacy of the pandemic.

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Speaker 1: Where are we on that, Oh, that's right. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's like they said, we can't and in case, we're

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Speaker 1: not really sure we want to, and we're not even

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Speaker 1: sure we're going to be allowed to because investors are

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Speaker 1: going to punish us essentially for for for reacting to

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Speaker 1: to higher prices. You know, two months down the line

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Speaker 1: from that conference, not one has changed any sort of

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Speaker 1: production increases we've seen so far this earning season, I

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Speaker 1: mean pretty sort of incremental. Chevron x On this morning

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Speaker 1: come out with, you know, some pretty impressive results on

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Speaker 1: the whole that they did miss the consensus f for

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Speaker 1: for earnings to share both of them, there are some

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Speaker 1: slight issues there on their refining business, various cost issues,

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Speaker 1: timing issues. I mean, if you can see past that,

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Speaker 1: you know, these are very robust earnings. But they both

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Speaker 1: companies have come out and said we're not planning to

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Speaker 1: spend increased spending at all, and in fact, x On

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Speaker 1: I think is likely down on a on a run

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Speaker 1: rate so far for the first quarter, it's on course

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Speaker 1: to spend below what it was forecasting for the full year.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sure might speed up towards the end

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Speaker 1: of the year. Um Chevron is keeping, you know, keeping

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Speaker 1: spending tight. Um. There's the big scene this morning with

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Speaker 1: our story. We'll be going with us the share buy

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Speaker 1: backs that both companies have have given updates on. XN

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Speaker 1: is tripling its plans shared by back to billion dollars.

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Speaker 1: They have a lot of cash. They are giving no

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Speaker 1: indication they're going to go out and do any deals

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Speaker 1: that would be a surprise, and they're not spending it

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Speaker 1: on capex. They are spending it on buy backs at

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Speaker 1: the moment, and Excells earnings called just ended, and big

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Speaker 1: message from that was also that they are being very

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Speaker 1: conservative on that cash management, that building up reserves. They

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Speaker 1: been through a very difficult to an off your period

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Speaker 1: and they some some valuable lessons for that. I think

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Speaker 1: what's fascinating here and and for our radio listeners worldwide,

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Speaker 1: we want to really emphasize what Simon just brought up there,

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Speaker 1: the idea that this caution in spending really is a

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Speaker 1: byproduct of history, The idea that this is a sector

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Speaker 1: that has been lagging for so long that have investors

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Speaker 1: have really been hesitant to hop into an equity market

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Speaker 1: and the bond market. I might add the energy sector

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Speaker 1: making up I believe a good chunk of the high

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Speaker 1: yield market as well. And this really comes from this

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Speaker 1: idea of drill, baby, drill, and and and this legacy

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Speaker 1: of that. They don't want to go through that because

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Speaker 1: then you get cut off from these funding streams, from

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Speaker 1: these capital markets, and then you can't pay your workers,

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Speaker 1: you can't expand you can't grow, and naturally you get

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Speaker 1: punished for it in the stock market. Simon, Let's talk

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Speaker 1: about the other side of the equation. UM generally at

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Speaker 1: the top of this block said that oil is politicized

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Speaker 1: very often. The Biden administration very vocal about ramping up production.

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Speaker 1: I feel like we've just discussed the internal dynamics of

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Speaker 1: the shale industry. Let's talk about this from the global perspective.

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Speaker 1: An OPEC meeting coming next week. But it seems like

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Speaker 1: this is a problem, This ramp up, this caution is

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Speaker 1: a problem worldwide, from OPEC to Europe to Russia, UM

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Speaker 1: and even the Biden administration. Yeah, I mean, we got

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Speaker 1: that we've we've we're now kind of got used to

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Speaker 1: monthly MOPEC meetings, which is nuts. Then the one next week,

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Speaker 1: um that we expect it will be another routine in

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Speaker 1: production increase in line with what you know, over a

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Speaker 1: year now they've been doing these production increases about four

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Speaker 1: barrels of oil per day extra more or less as

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Speaker 1: OPEC gradually manages this production recovery from the massive cuts

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Speaker 1: they implemented during the early days of pandemic um OPEQ

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Speaker 1: and you know, ope, we largely read Saudi Arabia here

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Speaker 1: the superpower. You know, OPEC has been and eaves continue

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Speaker 1: to be very resistant to demands from from administration to

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Speaker 1: increase production. And you know, the lesson the impact on

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Speaker 1: on the consumers and lower gasoline prices combat inflation. They

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Speaker 1: don't want to hear it. The Saudies are very happy

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Speaker 1: and why wouldn't they be. And we've got a crew

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Speaker 1: prices you around about a hundred dollars right now. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know, Grant is trading up with around a hundred

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Speaker 1: and ten h This this suit Saudi. The Saudi is

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Speaker 1: fantastically because of course, you know, the economy is doing

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Speaker 1: very well. They're no longer having to fund any kind

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Speaker 1: of deficits where compared with all where prices were a

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Speaker 1: year ago. And you know, you're sitting up really well,

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Speaker 1: and I'm wondering if you'll set us up a little

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Speaker 1: more next week ahead of opaque meeting And just thirty

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Speaker 1: seconds here, what are you watching for? The don't fact

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Speaker 1: meeting is going to be pretty perfunctory. I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: always the chance that we can see a surprise, but honestly,

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Speaker 1: it'll be like if the last year has been any guide,

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Speaker 1: It'll be very short, still announced the decision. It's like

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Speaker 1: a rubber stamp essentially. I mean, look beyond that, what

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Speaker 1: we're looking at is really Chinese demand. The lockdown in China,

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Speaker 1: the world's second largest oil market, that's undoubtitely having a

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Speaker 1: major impact on demand. That's God's trade is extremely worried.

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Speaker 1: And then we're looking for further developments in situation regarding

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Speaker 1: Europe and possible sanctions on oil oil Russian oil. I

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Speaker 1: think that that could be really big, fascinating stuff. Simon Caseley,

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Speaker 1: a true expert on the energy and commanding space and

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Speaker 1: deputy managing editor of our energy coverage here in the States.

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Speaker 1: We thank you so much for your time. There's a

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Speaker 1: very special guest here as we talk about the war

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Speaker 1: in Ukraine, as we talk about what the United States

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Speaker 1: can actually do, we have no better guests than James Stravites.

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Speaker 1: Admiral James Trevis, I should say of the United States Navy.

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Speaker 1: He's retired after having spent thirty seven years with them,

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Speaker 1: also a contributor to Bloomberg Opinion. Admiral, thank you as

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Speaker 1: always for joining us. Let's take this conversation very seriously.

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Speaker 1: Is the United States doing everything it can do? Almost

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Speaker 1: We have provided billions of dollars of aid, We have

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Speaker 1: put highly advanced weapons in the hands of the Ukrainians. Um,

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Speaker 1: we have done just about everything we can to. Remaining

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Speaker 1: things that I think you'll see the administration move on

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Speaker 1: fairly soon are providing longer range anti ship missiles. And

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Speaker 1: this is because the Black Sea is important to Russian

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Speaker 1: warships dominated Ukrainians sank one a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 1: the flagship. They need more weapons to reach out and

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Speaker 1: touch those worships in the Black Sea. And secondly, they

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Speaker 1: still need high performance combat aircraft so they can control

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Speaker 1: the skies over Ukraine. These will come in the form

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Speaker 1: of mid twenty nine, which will be provided by UM

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Speaker 1: NATO allies, and then we the United States will backfill

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Speaker 1: those two processes I believe are in motion. Um. Other

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Speaker 1: than that, we have done everything we can to put

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Speaker 1: the tools in the hands of the Ukrainians so they

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Speaker 1: can finish the job. You know. Pretty recently you've also written,

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Speaker 1: in addition to kind of you know, speaking about the

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Speaker 1: actual weapons themselves, you've written that the deadliest weapon in

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Speaker 1: Ukraine is a cell phone. What exactly do you mean

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Speaker 1: when this comes to information warfare? Yeah, we are engaged

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Speaker 1: in a real battle for the truth. And what I

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Speaker 1: mean by that is, uh, the war crimes that are

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Speaker 1: being committed every single day by the Russian military, and

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Speaker 1: we've seen powerful evidence of this from places like Busha

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Speaker 1: on the outskirts of Kiev. Where did we get that evidence.

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Speaker 1: We got it from cell phones, from videos taken by

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Speaker 1: ordinary Ukrainians who then used those supercomputers not only to

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Speaker 1: record these crimes, but to upbload them into the Internet

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Speaker 1: move them forward. And we've got to get that information

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Speaker 1: out in the broader world, because although we are convinced

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Speaker 1: in the United States and in NATO and in the

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Speaker 1: Western democracies. There are still big parts of the world

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Speaker 1: in Sub Saharan Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, South Asia

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Speaker 1: that are as yet not completely convinced about the awful

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Speaker 1: actions of Russia. We need to make that case with

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Speaker 1: those swing voters in that part of the world as well.

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Speaker 1: The cell phone and video can help us do that. Admiral,

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Speaker 1: you also have quite the resume when it comes to

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Speaker 1: NATO as well. We know Sweden Finland looking to join

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Speaker 1: NATO in particular, what kind of reaction can we expect

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Speaker 1: from Russia and arguably from China as well? As we

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Speaker 1: see the NATO presence in the NATO membership growing um.

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Speaker 1: Sweden and Finland have highly, highly capable militaries. They are

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Speaker 1: very advanced economies. These are techno democracies of the first order.

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Speaker 1: I commanded Swedish and Finnish troops. They were under my

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Speaker 1: command in Afghanistan. They were part of the NATO mission

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Speaker 1: to Afghanistan. So the quality of those nations, who also

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Speaker 1: spend a great deal on defense. If you add up

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Speaker 1: the defense budgets of Sweden and Finland, they are about

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Speaker 1: one fourth the budget of Russia. So this would be

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Speaker 1: a significant addition to NATO. In terms of Russian reaction, Uh,

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Speaker 1: the Russians will hate it. And that's a good thing.

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Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin needs to reap what he has sown, and

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Speaker 1: the consequences of evading a democracy like Ukraine are going

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Speaker 1: to be that other. Uh, democracies like Sweden and Finland

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Speaker 1: look at what happened to Ukraine and say, I think

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Speaker 1: I would like a NATO membership card. We had to

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Speaker 1: bring him aboard. I think it'll deter Putin. He'll be angry.

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Speaker 1: There's very little he can do about it. Yeah, I'm

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Speaker 1: wondering if you can, Admiral, give us a little bit

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Speaker 1: of understanding an analysis here about who are actually dealing with?

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Speaker 1: Who is Ukraine dealing with? When it comes to Russia's

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Speaker 1: new commander who had led brutal attacks in Syria before. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is General Alexander Nikolaev and he is well known

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Speaker 1: to Western intelligence. His file is stamped on it the

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Speaker 1: Butcher of Syria. He also committed war crimes in Chechnia

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Speaker 1: during the wars there and a previous decade. He is

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Speaker 1: someone who is unfortunately undeterred by international law. He will

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Speaker 1: attack civilian populations, will encourage war criminal behavior, and we

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Speaker 1: don't have to speculate on that because we saw him

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Speaker 1: do it in Syria and he's been hand picked by

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Speaker 1: Putin to continue to attempt to terrorize the Ukrainian population.

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Speaker 1: One more reason we need to stand with the Ukrainians

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Speaker 1: in this fight. Admiral, I want to ask about simply

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Speaker 1: what Putin's thinking is here and the timeline that we're

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Speaker 1: expecting from this war thirty seconds. How long is this

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Speaker 1: warre gonna last? I think it will last months, but

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Speaker 1: not years. Putin is bleeding cash war as hell. It's

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Speaker 1: also expensive. I think in the two to four months range,

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Speaker 1: both parties are going to start looking for a negotiation.

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Speaker 1: Couldn't go longer than that, sure, but I think we're

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Speaker 1: looking at some form of negotiation in the by the

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Speaker 1: end of the summer into the fall. Let's hope for

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Speaker 1: Admiral James Stravitas of Bloomberg opinion columnist and formerly of

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Speaker 1: the Navy, the U. S. Navy and of NATO as well.

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Speaker 1: We appreciate your insight in your analysis. Thanks for listening

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Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen

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Speaker 1: to interviews of Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer.

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Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three.

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Speaker 1: On Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney Before

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Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Radio