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Speaker 1: I'm West Kasova today on the Big Take. Bloomberg's Rosalind

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Speaker 1: mathieson on the Hamasa attack against Israel, the Israeli response,

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Speaker 1: and concerns about possible escalating conflict in the Middle East

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Speaker 1: and beyond.

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Speaker 2: Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip began shooting thousands of

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Speaker 2: rockets at Israel and also infiltrating with their militans across

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Speaker 2: the fence.

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Speaker 3: Israel and Halas at war.

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Speaker 4: The death toll TOMPs eleven one hundred as fighting enters

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Speaker 4: a third day.

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Speaker 1: In the US says it's sending military support to Israel,

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Speaker 1: while Saudi Arabia calls for de escalation. Ros days after

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Speaker 1: this attack, it's still hard to comprehend the scale of

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Speaker 1: what is happening in Israel. Can you give us a

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Speaker 1: picture of the latest on the ground there.

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Speaker 5: Well, yes, days later, the fighting is still going on.

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Speaker 5: I mean, Israel has unleashed severe Italia against the Hamas

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Speaker 5: forces who've made their incursion into Israel. They've been striking

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Speaker 5: back heavily in the Gaza Strip, which is of course

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Speaker 5: that small bit of land Palestine and territory very close

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Speaker 5: to Israel. But we know that incursions are still going on.

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Speaker 5: They're also coming from the north of Israel, from Lebanon,

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Speaker 5: in small numbers, but certainly some fighting going on there.

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Speaker 5: And as Israeli a government says itself and the defense officials,

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Speaker 5: they don't yet have the situation under control. The idea

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Speaker 5: that Hamas and its militants could make inroads so far

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Speaker 5: into Israel in such broad measure without any advanced warning

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Speaker 5: from Israel this was going to happen remains really still

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Speaker 5: the most shocking aspect of this to some extent of all.

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Speaker 1: Can you tell us about the hostages who've been taken,

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Speaker 1: because that seems to be one of the most urgent

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Speaker 1: questions is where they are and what will happen to them?

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Speaker 4: Well, that's right, and there's quite a bit about that.

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Speaker 4: We simply don't know.

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Speaker 5: We do know that some of them have been taken

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Speaker 5: in to the Gaza Strip by Hamas militants.

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Speaker 4: The purpose of that is.

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Speaker 5: Not exactly clear, but not that difficult to imagine, potentially

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Speaker 5: with all the talk at some point about a full

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Speaker 5: scale ground invasion of Gaza and what those people might

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Speaker 5: be used for in that event. We know they number

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Speaker 5: at least in their hundred one hundreds potentially that they've

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Speaker 5: been taken from various towns and villages in the south

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Speaker 5: of Israel, most of them seem to be now inside

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Speaker 5: the Gaza Strip, are making it very difficult to get

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Speaker 5: them back, and that's why we're seeing a lot of

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Speaker 5: conversation already about negotiations for some kind of prisoners. What

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Speaker 5: we're seeing countries in the region seemingly offering their services

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Speaker 5: to try and mediate because you can see these hostages

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Speaker 5: becoming really that the major flash point here and sort

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Speaker 5: of forcing Israel's hands to take further action against Hamas

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Speaker 5: inside the Gaza Strip.

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Speaker 1: And the way Hamas did this, which was to come

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Speaker 1: in and just kill villions in their homes around their

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Speaker 1: homes at this music festival and take hostage those they

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Speaker 1: didn't kill, has really galvanized Israel's population in a way.

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Speaker 1: The country has not been united in a long time,

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Speaker 1: well certainly.

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Speaker 5: I mean Israel's been famous for its fractious politics for

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Speaker 5: years now, frequent elections in stable kind of governments, short

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Speaker 5: term coalitions, and of late, under the latest administration of

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Speaker 5: Benjamin Netanyahu, of course, widespread protests against his efforts which

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Speaker 5: are seen to be to diminish the independence of the

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Speaker 5: judiciary of the court system, and we've seen mass protests

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Speaker 5: for months over that, including army reservists saying that they're

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Speaker 5: not going to sort of do their job as reservists

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Speaker 5: as part of it. That's all washed away in an instant.

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Speaker 5: All you can see is unity inside Israel. The business

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Speaker 5: leaders who were sort of funding some of the protest

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Speaker 5: movement against Benjamin Netanyahu are now fire enhancing some of

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Speaker 5: the support for Israel's conflict here against Hamas. Reservists are

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Speaker 5: all signed up in doing their job, they're mobilizing more

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Speaker 5: of them. So all the air for now at least

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Speaker 5: has come out of that protest movement.

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Speaker 1: And unlike in previous conflicts, which we've seen many of

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Speaker 1: over the years, Netanyahu came out and said Israel is

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Speaker 1: at war, and that really does seem to be more

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Speaker 1: than rhetoric. Israel is mounting a huge counter offensive to

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Speaker 1: quell this attack. What exactly are they doing.

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Speaker 5: Well, certainly they're retaliating via air, so you're seeing air

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Speaker 5: strikes into the Gaza strip. We're now seeing border skirmishes

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Speaker 5: with Lebanon helicopter gunships engaging in some fighting there. That

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Speaker 5: seems to be fairly small elements in the north, but

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Speaker 5: still there is fighting going on there. But certainly calling

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Speaker 5: up those large number of reserves sends the signal as

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Speaker 5: you say, that they are serious about this. This is

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Speaker 5: not one of those previous episodes where you saw a

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Speaker 5: couple of days of a violence between Israel and Hamas

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Speaker 5: and then things subsided again.

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Speaker 4: Just the sheer number of casualties for Israel.

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Speaker 5: The civilians, those scenes of militants going into people's houses,

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Speaker 5: of killing innocent people, of taking others back into the

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Speaker 5: Gaza Strip. That's going to force who's hand. He can't

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Speaker 5: just sit back in this moment. He does need to

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Speaker 5: do something, and so when he talks about war, he

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Speaker 5: really does seem to mean it.

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Speaker 4: What we could be seeing.

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Speaker 5: There is really that full throated ground war against the

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Speaker 5: Gaza Strip and Hamas in particular in the Gaza Strip,

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Speaker 5: and he's warning that'll be months. This is not something

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Speaker 5: that's going to disappear again in a week or two

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Speaker 5: in subside as it has previously. We are talking about

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Speaker 5: weeks and months of conflict, and then of course the

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Speaker 5: risk of course that extends further into the region and

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Speaker 5: draws in other countries as a result.

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Speaker 1: And ros what is the situation like right now in Gaza.

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Speaker 5: Well, certainly it's extremely difficult. I mean, it's a very

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Speaker 5: small strip of land that's highly densely populated and has

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Speaker 5: been for many years. These are people who moved into

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Speaker 5: the Gaza strip decades ago due to conflicts elsewhere in

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Speaker 5: the region, and over the years they've lived in quite

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Speaker 5: difficult circumstances, as I said, high population density, not a

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Speaker 5: lot of prospects for employment, difficult in terms of sometimes

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Speaker 5: even accessing basic necessities, and reliant really on external financial

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Speaker 5: aid to stay afloat. And so life has been very

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Speaker 5: difficult there for many years. And with the sort of

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Speaker 5: the frequent rocket attacks back and forth obviously dangerous also,

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Speaker 5: and so for the people in Gaza, this moment.

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Speaker 4: Is particularly fraught.

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Speaker 5: The Israeli administrations say that they're going to ensure there's

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Speaker 5: no water, there's no electricity, They're going to make life

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Speaker 5: as difficult as they can the people are in Gaza,

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Speaker 5: and the hope that that sort of transcends into pressure

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Speaker 5: on Hamas to give in. Essentially, they're hoping that that

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Speaker 5: might mean that there's pressure within the people living inside Gaza.

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Speaker 5: I mean, obviously there are militants operating in there, but

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Speaker 5: there are also just ordinary people who've been trying to

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Speaker 5: live their lives, blocked from going into Israel to work

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Speaker 5: and to earn money, and so you can imagine that

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Speaker 5: the situation on the ground there is particularly difficult at

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Speaker 5: the moment. Of course, in the longer term, there's this

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Speaker 5: discussion for many years around Gaza and the role of

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Speaker 5: Israel in essentially locking off Gaza from.

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Speaker 4: The rest of the world.

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Speaker 5: Israel says that it needs to do so to protect

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Speaker 5: its citizens from Hamas. It argues, it's it's avoided exactly

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Speaker 5: the situation that we're now seeing up until now, and

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Speaker 5: it's had to do that out of necessity. There are

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Speaker 5: other countries and human rights organizations that have argued in

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Speaker 5: essence that Israel has sort of suppressed the people who

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Speaker 5: are residing in Gaza, has worsened their quality of life,

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Speaker 5: has given them very few options again in terms of

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Speaker 5: the ability to earn money, freedom of movement, and so on.

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Speaker 5: So these are very sort of fundamental, deep issues that

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Speaker 5: have gone on for many years, and a level of

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Speaker 5: resentment amongst those living in Gaza about their.

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Speaker 1: Situation ras one of the big questions is something you've

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Speaker 1: referred to earlier, which is how Israel could have been

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Speaker 1: caught off guard by this. Israel's intelligence is known to

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Speaker 1: be some of the finest in the world. How is

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Speaker 1: it that Israel had no apparent advanced warning of this attack?

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Speaker 5: Well, that is the big question, and there are no

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Speaker 5: easy answers, and we may not have any for some time.

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Speaker 5: The Defense Force in Israel says they are mounting inquiries

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Speaker 5: about this, but they will go on for weeks and months,

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Speaker 5: and meantime they are in the middle of now fighting

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Speaker 5: a conflict as well, which they're focusing on. But certainly

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Speaker 5: it is just startling that this could have happened in

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Speaker 5: the early hours of Saturday morning with no warning. Again,

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Speaker 5: a campaign that must have been in the planning for months,

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Speaker 5: and Israeli intelligence is very highly regarded in general. They're

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Speaker 5: certainly seen as sort of providing key intel to the

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Speaker 5: US over the years. They're famous for it. And how

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Speaker 5: on earth they had no idea this was coming is

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Speaker 5: just startling, especially when they've spent so much money on

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Speaker 5: their military, on their defense, high levels of training, very

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Speaker 5: high capacity air defense system.

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Speaker 1: As Another concern that's come up is that this conflict

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Speaker 1: could spread beyond Hamas and the Gaza strip to Hesbalah

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Speaker 1: fighters in Lebanon launching an attack at the same time.

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Speaker 1: Do we know anything more about that?

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Speaker 5: Well, certainly that is the concern that's got to be

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Speaker 5: quite real for the US as a key ally of

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Speaker 5: Israel and other nations in the region. Is that question

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Speaker 5: of contagion and whether Israel feels obliged to mount some

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Speaker 5: kind of wider reprisal, especially if they do trace and

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Speaker 5: of this back to Iran as having supported Hamas either

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Speaker 5: in the planning or the execution, or even just knowing

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Speaker 5: about it in advance of this attack. And so you've

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Speaker 5: got these sort of Iranian supported proxies in the region

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Speaker 5: that have long been in tussles with Israel. You mentioned

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Speaker 5: Hasbella in that as well, and so you've got this

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Speaker 5: sort of like complex soup of actors in the region

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Speaker 5: with different kinds of alliances and sometimes acting on behalf

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Speaker 5: of bigger countries these smaller proxy outfits, And that's ripe

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Speaker 5: for some kind of contagion. Really, if Israel again feels

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Speaker 5: that it wants to retaliate, does it push hard against Hasbela,

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Speaker 5: Does that bring in Lebanon. Does that bring in Iran

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Speaker 5: through the back door? For example? What about some of

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Speaker 5: the other big nations in the region who are obviously

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Speaker 5: looking upon this with great concern because there's been this

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Speaker 5: sort of climate, this push to really normalize ties between

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Speaker 5: Saudi Arabia and Israel and to really set that region

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Speaker 5: on a longer term, more stable footing, focused on sort

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Speaker 5: of common goals economic growth.

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Speaker 4: Train investment. It's all gone out the window.

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Speaker 5: And so now, of course the concern is that this

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Speaker 5: does spread to Iran, it draws in other countries militarily,

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Speaker 5: it affects things like the supply of oil, and suddenly

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Speaker 5: you've got a very, very widespread and deep conflict.

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Speaker 1: After the break, Israel's allies respond to.

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Speaker 3: The attacks.

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Speaker 1: Ruse. In recent months, Israel and Saudi Arabia have been

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Speaker 1: circling around each other about a possible thaw in their relationship.

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Speaker 1: Does this attack have anything to do with possibly trying

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Speaker 1: to stop that from happening.

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Speaker 5: Well, certainly that's one aspect of it. You can imagine

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Speaker 5: that whether that was the entail or not, it has

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Speaker 5: to put that thaw off the table for now, if

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Speaker 5: not indefinitely, because this is not an environment where Israel

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Speaker 5: can now pursue a normalization.

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Speaker 4: With Saudi Arabia or Saudi Arabia.

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Speaker 5: In turn, those conversations were exceptionally delicate from the outset.

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Speaker 5: They progressed very carefully, very slowly. The US has had

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Speaker 5: a hand in that also, of course, wanting to facilitate

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Speaker 5: that kind of agreement and set up that greater stability

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Speaker 5: in the Middle East for the longer term. So that's

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Speaker 5: been a very careful and delicate process, and it's been

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Speaker 5: completely thrown off kilter by this either way. So that

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Speaker 5: is one of the things that people are talking about.

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Speaker 5: Was it deliberate to basically torpedo that process once and

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Speaker 5: for all? Is that a reason that Hamas did it

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Speaker 5: because they knew this would be a knock on effect?

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Speaker 5: Or is it just an unintended but for them probably welcome.

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Speaker 4: Side effect of it.

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Speaker 5: Whatever was the intention, it's certainly going to be the

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Speaker 5: result because with Israel embroiled in a conflict for months

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Speaker 5: or even longer, there's just no way that that country

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Speaker 5: is going to be in a position to have those

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Speaker 5: of conversations.

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Speaker 1: How has the US responded, along with its European.

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Speaker 5: Allies, well, certainly very strong statements of support for Israel.

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Speaker 2: People viser under attack orchestrated by a terrorist organization Hamas

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Speaker 2: in this moment of tragedy. I want to say to

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Speaker 2: them and to the world and a terrorists everywhere, if

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Speaker 2: the United States stands with Israel, we will not ever

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Speaker 2: fail to have their back.

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Speaker 5: The US is a key ally of Israel, has for

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Speaker 5: many many years supported it militarily, had to role obviously

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Speaker 5: in the development and even now the maintenance of the

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Speaker 5: Iron Dome Air defense shield over Israel. So very much

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Speaker 5: strong statements of support. They're moving some of their military

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Speaker 5: assets closer to the region, some of their warships and

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Speaker 5: so on, and that's to send a very clear signal also,

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Speaker 5: we're here where President, we're involved, We're watching. We don't

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Speaker 5: want this to escalate, but we could act if needed.

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Speaker 5: And you can imagine, you know, in the back channel

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Speaker 5: sense very much urging caution on the part of everybody here,

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Speaker 5: not wanting it to extend to other countries, but also

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Speaker 5: for the US the difficult question of not wanting to

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Speaker 5: get drawn in directly militarily if it can help it.

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Speaker 5: We've seen very much in recent years a high allergy

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Speaker 5: by the US to have its own military assets involved

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Speaker 5: around the world. We saw that with the invasion of Ukraine,

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Speaker 5: where the US has strongly supported Ukraine, sent a lot

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Speaker 5: of military kit, but not wanted its own boots on

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Speaker 5: the ground. We've seen it in the chaotic withdrawal of

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Speaker 5: US troops from Afghanistan. Also in recent years. There's no

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Speaker 5: appetite in the US politically to get involved militarily in

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Speaker 5: another conflict around the world. So it's a very delicate

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Speaker 5: dance for the US here. They need to show strong

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Speaker 5: support for Israel. They need to potentially bulk up some

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Speaker 5: of the military and financial aid that might be coming

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Speaker 5: to Israel in this moment, but they probably don't want

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Speaker 5: to be drawn in directly in terms of their own

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Speaker 5: military assets.

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Speaker 1: When we come back. Could the attacks ultimately cause Netanyahu

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Speaker 1: his job? Ras Eliam talked about how difficult life is

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Speaker 1: in Gaza. Netan Yahoo has urged civilians to leave Gaza,

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Speaker 1: but can they just leave? Is that even possible?

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Speaker 4: It's extremely difficult.

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Speaker 5: Movement in and out of Gaza has been restricted for years.

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Speaker 5: There were times when people could go into Israel and back,

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Speaker 5: for example, to work, but that's all being cut off,

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Speaker 5: and so the ability to go anywhere from that tiny

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Speaker 5: strip of land is very difficult. Do you attempt some

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Speaker 5: kind of journey outward by sea? Where do you escape

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Speaker 5: to even if you could, And that's been one of

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Speaker 5: the reasons that that quality of life there is deteriorate

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Speaker 5: it because it's just people packed in amongst each other

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Speaker 5: in high density housing with nowhere else to go. And

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Speaker 5: so while he's urging people to leave, they frankly just

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Speaker 5: don't have very many options.

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Speaker 1: You said at the start of our conversation that Israelis

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Speaker 1: were setting aside their differences and coming together to face

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Speaker 1: this attack. But this also poses real danger for Netanyahu

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Speaker 1: and his government in the future, doesn't it.

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Speaker 4: Well, it does, as you say.

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Speaker 5: Right now, HiT's a moment of high unity inside Israel.

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Speaker 5: They're talking about even forming a unity government, which is

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Speaker 5: something they've not managed to achieve through many, many fraud elections.

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Speaker 5: And the mood is just very much were one in this.

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Speaker 5: But of course there are those big questions again around

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Speaker 5: such a fundamental failure of defense, no advance warning, the

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Speaker 5: high level of civilian casualties in this, and there are

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Speaker 5: going to be a lot of question asked about that

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Speaker 5: as time goes on, and there were big divisions inside Israel,

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Speaker 5: as we talked about before this moment, big protests against

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Speaker 5: Netanyahu and some of the legal changes he was trying

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Speaker 5: to make. So the question is does this become his

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Speaker 5: goldimere moment?

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Speaker 4: In essence, of.

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Speaker 5: Course, she was the leader of Israel from nineteen sixty

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Speaker 5: nine to nineteen seventy four, when, of course you had

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Speaker 5: another war, the Young Kipill War in nineteen seventy three,

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Speaker 5: when Israel was also caught by surprise. In that case

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Speaker 5: it was Syria and Egypt, and there are a lot

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Speaker 5: of recriminations for that.

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Speaker 4: In the end, it's cost her her job.

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Speaker 5: And so that is sort of some of the parallels

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Speaker 5: that may inevitably be drawn at some point down the track.

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Speaker 5: Is this going to be a similar moment for Netanyahu?

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Speaker 5: Will his position be seen as untenable in the longer run?

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Speaker 5: Simply again because of the way that this happened for Israel,

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Speaker 5: an extent to which the country was caught by surprise.

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Speaker 5: One thing that Benjamin Nettnawhu stressed frequently in all his campaigning,

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Speaker 5: in all his rhetoric, was that Israel was very much

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Speaker 5: safer under his watch. He talked about it endlessly. He

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Speaker 5: talked about the money that was being spent on the military.

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Speaker 5: It really was his manner and his promise to the

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Speaker 5: Israeli people. And so as the dust settles on this,

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Speaker 5: you can imagine that some of that blamed directly will

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Speaker 5: come back to him simply because of the comments that

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Speaker 5: he made.

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Speaker 3: Ras.

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Speaker 1: The situation in Israel is moving pretty rapidly. But when

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Speaker 1: you look ahead in really the days and weeks to come,

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Speaker 1: what are you watching for.

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Speaker 5: We're watching for the potential that it does morph into

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Speaker 5: a ground war against the Gaza Strip and Hamas. There

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Speaker 5: the potential for it to spread in the region and

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Speaker 5: take in either Iran or some of the proxies of Iran.

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Speaker 5: Those are sort of the biggest immediate concerns that you know,

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Speaker 5: the world in general must have about this moment. Does

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Speaker 5: this morph into a broader conflict in a very complex

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Speaker 5: region of the world, And do we see Israeli barking

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Speaker 5: on a long and complex ground wall in the Garzastrip

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Speaker 5: area and really try and crush the mass once and

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Speaker 5: for all. Those have to be the two sort of

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Speaker 5: biggest immediate questions about where this might go.

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Speaker 1: Rouz, thanks for taking the time to speak with me.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, thanks for listening to us here at the

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Speaker 1: Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio.

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Speaker 1: Email us questions or comments to Big Take at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot net. Our senior producer Katherine Fink produced this episode.

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Speaker 1: It was engineered by our supervising producer Vicky Virgalina. Our

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Speaker 1: original music was composed by Leo Sidron. I'm wes Kasova.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back tomorrow with another Big Take.