Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,
Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of
Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.
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Speaker 2: let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday.
Speaker 2: We have an amazing show for everybody today.
Speaker 1: We have personal indeed, we do lots of interesting news
Speaker 1: breaking this morning. We are going to be taking a
Speaker 1: look at this blockbuster New York Times.
Speaker 4: Poll that woof yikes bad for Joe.
Speaker 1: Biden, really bad for Joe Biden. I mean, like down
Speaker 1: double digits in Nevada bad for Joe Biden. So we'll
Speaker 1: dig into that because there are a lot of other
Speaker 1: interesting numbers besides those top lines. We also, in light
Speaker 1: of those that news, we're going to show you Biden's
Speaker 1: favorite news anchor basically pushing the alarm button and saying, hey,
Speaker 1: you are on a path to defeat right now. So
Speaker 1: there is a lot of freak out totally justified on
Speaker 1: the Democratic side of the aisle right now. We also
Speaker 1: had Trump back in the courtroom yesterday and what was
Speaker 1: probably the most essential testimony in this hush money case
Speaker 1: of Michael Cohen. Will tell you what he said and
Speaker 1: what it could mean. Also, GameStop is back, Raring, Kitty
Speaker 1: is back, He's back.
Speaker 2: What was the percentage in place yes as of this morning,
Speaker 2: game stop up about seventy five percent AMC stock up
Speaker 2: one all thanks to mister Keith Gill himself.
Speaker 1: Very interesting times we're living in, Yes. Indeed, at the
Speaker 1: same time, we've got some major developments with regard to
Speaker 1: Ukraine that we did not want to lose sight of,
Speaker 1: both on the Russian side and on the Ukrainian side,
Speaker 1: So we'll break those down for you.
Speaker 4: A lot going on in.
Speaker 1: Israel, of course, We're going to bring you a CNN
Speaker 1: report about detainees being tortured by the Israelis, an Israeli
Speaker 1: whistleblowerre actually bringing them these allegations.
Speaker 4: Quite stunning. There.
Speaker 1: We also have IDF generals revolting against BB their reasons
Speaker 1: really interesting. What this says about the divide in Israeli society.
Speaker 1: And we have Senator Lindsay Graham suggesting, hey, how about
Speaker 1: we just knew Gaza? How about that, joining a growing
Speaker 1: list of politicians who are suggesting just out and out
Speaker 1: atrost genicidal atrocities against Palestinians. We also are very excited
Speaker 1: to talk to Arjun Singh. He's a producer for lever
Speaker 1: News's new Revamp podcast, which I have to tell you
Speaker 1: guys is excellent. I've been seeing as Praises Sager can vouch,
Speaker 1: they have really up their game, and he's done some
Speaker 1: fantastic reporting looking inside the Biden administration's unconditional support for Israel.
Speaker 1: And this comes at a time when we have yet
Speaker 1: another significant official in the State Department resigning over his
Speaker 1: moral objections to the policy viz. A vi Israel and
Speaker 1: the unconditional support, the flouting of American laws in order
Speaker 1: to support Israel. And it's a Jewish man who resigned too.
Speaker 1: So it's quite an interesting role position that he is
Speaker 1: taking and worth taking a look at that as well.
Speaker 2: He's the active duty US Army major. I mean, it's
Speaker 2: not something you just throw away, right, you know. I mean,
Speaker 2: this is an entire career. Somebody who's already reached that
Speaker 2: rank is spend a long time in the military, probably
Speaker 2: on a career track. That's not something that you just
Speaker 2: do lightly. We had similar resignations that happened in the past.
Speaker 2: It used to get a lot of attention here. I
Speaker 2: seem to recall whenever it was under Trump.
Speaker 3: Under Biden.
Speaker 2: You may be able to hear about it on a
Speaker 2: show like Hours, Yeah about it maybe if you're on Twitter,
Speaker 2: if you're on the right Twitter. But anyways, as Crystal said,
Speaker 2: we've got a great show for everybody today. Thank you
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Speaker 2: Com And as we continue to tease, we do have
Speaker 2: a major, major announcement that is coming. That's all I
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Speaker 2: a massive upgrade in our premium service. We're always thinking
Speaker 2: about everybody, especially on the heels. We've only got two
Speaker 2: weeks to go a three year anniversary, which is pretty crazy.
Speaker 2: Was really reflecting on it yesterday. We finally got our
Speaker 2: personal YouTube one million plaques and I put it up
Speaker 2: in my office and I was.
Speaker 3: Like, Wow, that's that's pretty cool. That actually meant something.
Speaker 4: How were we it rising?
Speaker 3: I think it was about two years so.
Speaker 1: We've significantly surpassed.
Speaker 4: The time we had together.
Speaker 3: At oh absolutely Rising.
Speaker 5: Yes.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so it was to June of twenty nineteen when
Speaker 2: I officially started hosting Rising with you. I think that's
Speaker 2: like the official jump off point. And yeah, we left
Speaker 2: exactly two years later.
Speaker 3: So there you go. Wow, twenty twenty one, so very
Speaker 3: very end.
Speaker 1: So it's crazy three years to me, because to me
Speaker 1: it still feels like new, like gretty yesterday. Yeah, like
Speaker 1: you're still baby show, getting our legs under as et cetera.
Speaker 4: So it's definitely flown by.
Speaker 2: You're the ones that made it possible. Thank we love you,
Speaker 2: and we thank you. All right, let's begin with Biden.
Speaker 2: As Crystal said, I mean, this is something that came
Speaker 2: out yesterday would tease a little bit in our show,
Speaker 2: but we wanted to spend a lot of time here
Speaker 2: because I mean, this is the biggest flashing red sign
Speaker 2: that you could possibly have for Joe Biden. The polls
Speaker 2: have basically been steady now and steadily declining for him.
Speaker 2: Let's go and put this up there on the screen.
Speaker 2: I mean, this is just stunning stuff. So here we
Speaker 2: have in the five key states, quote, young and non
Speaker 2: white voters expressing discontent with Biden, and the overall top
Speaker 2: line numbers here are absolutely brutal. So we have Donald
Speaker 2: Trump only behind Joe Biden in one swing state, and
Speaker 2: that's the state of Wisconsin, and that's actually inside the
Speaker 2: margin of error, so forty five percent for Donald Trump
Speaker 2: and Joe Biden at forty seven. But everywhere else in Pennsylvania,
Speaker 2: Trump is up by three. In Arizona, Trump is up
Speaker 2: by seven, In Michigan, Trump is up by seven. In
Speaker 2: Georgia you have Trump up by ten points. And in
Speaker 2: Nevada you have him up by twelve. Oh so, I
Speaker 2: mean so massively outside the margin of error that there's
Speaker 2: basically only two options Biden is on track for like
Speaker 2: catastrophic loss or the polls are totally wrong again. And
Speaker 2: by the way, I do not want to discount that possibility,
Speaker 2: because it's not like the New York Times cien pol
Speaker 2: was all that correct.
Speaker 3: I'll put that at the top.
Speaker 4: In the past, it was off in the other direction.
Speaker 1: It overstated in the last election. The last New York
Speaker 1: Times Siena Pol going into election date significantly overstated Joe
Speaker 1: Biden's support, including I think they had him winning Wisconsin
Speaker 1: by like ten points or something like that. It was
Speaker 1: barely Yeah, so who knows, like you have to hold
Speaker 1: that possibility out there actually given Democratic Party results, which
Speaker 1: have performed polls in a lot of these special elections,
Speaker 1: but twelve points in Nevada, that is way outside of
Speaker 1: the margin of error. And also soccer, It's not like
Speaker 1: these poll numbers are you know, the only ones out.
Speaker 4: They're not a big outlier.
Speaker 1: We've been seeing even at the times when Joe Biden
Speaker 1: seemed like he was doing a little better in the
Speaker 1: national head to heads, the battleground polls that would come out,
Speaker 1: they've always looked terrible. But you know, this is considered
Speaker 1: really a like gold standard pole. They invest a lot
Speaker 1: of money, there's a lot of credence put into these polls,
Speaker 1: especially in Democratic circles, and for it to be this
Speaker 1: disastrous is really something.
Speaker 3: Absolutely.
Speaker 2: What's even more interesting, and of course counter narrative is
Speaker 2: where are these gains coming from? So I will read
Speaker 2: mister Trump's strength is largely things to gains amongst young
Speaker 2: black and Hispanic voters. Actually, Biden's doing pretty damn well
Speaker 2: amongst white folks, and even better if you want to
Speaker 2: consider suburban ladies. Now, it says here the sense mister
Speaker 2: Biden would do little to improve the nation's fortunes has
Speaker 2: eroded his standing amongst the young, black, and Hispanic voters,
Speaker 2: who have usually represented the foundation of the Democratic Party.
Speaker 2: They found that the three groups want fundamental changes to
Speaker 2: American society, not just a return to normalcy. Few believe
Speaker 2: mister Biden would make even minor changes that would be
Speaker 2: good for the country. I can't say that they're wrong
Speaker 2: given what we've had for four years. Right now, it
Speaker 2: says that amongst eighteen to twenty nine year olds, Trump
Speaker 2: is actually tied with Joe Biden. Amongst young voters and
Speaker 2: Hispanic voters, these are groups which previously would vote for
Speaker 2: Biden at what sixties almost seventy percent margins. I only
Speaker 2: have to go back to twenty sixteen to see Donald
Speaker 2: Trump only win some thirty percent of the Latino vote.
Speaker 2: I mean, right now he's on track to win fifty
Speaker 2: and if you segregate that out and make it just men,
Speaker 2: it's probably on track to win.
Speaker 3: A pretty large majority of those votes.
Speaker 2: I mean, that's a massive realignment that's happened just in
Speaker 2: the last eight years. Now Here, also amongst black voters.
Speaker 2: It says that Trump is currently winning about twenty percent
Speaker 2: of black voters. That would be the highest level of
Speaker 2: Black support for a Republican presidential candidate since the enactment
Speaker 2: of the Civil Rights Act of nineteen sixty four. And Gaza,
Speaker 2: of course, is one that we can't erase. Inside of this,
Speaker 2: we see significant dissatisfaction from President Biden's left on the
Speaker 2: issue of Gaza. But Chrystal, I'll let you go on this,
Speaker 2: because what you flagged is that Gaza is the only
Speaker 2: thing where left voters are really abandoning. It's actually a
Speaker 2: lot of very centrist types who are like, I'm done
Speaker 2: with this guy, I can't do with it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I'll read you what at their ride up
Speaker 1: and then we can talk about a little bit more.
Speaker 1: They say, mister Biden's losses are concentrated among moderate and
Speaker 1: conservative Democratic leaning voters who nonetheless think that the system
Speaker 1: needs major changes or to be torn down altogether. There's
Speaker 1: so many things in there that, in your language, sagas
Speaker 1: counter narrative.
Speaker 4: First of all, the fact.
Speaker 1: That these quote unquote centrist voters just want like, don't
Speaker 1: mess with the status quot very much. Actually, these voters
Speaker 1: are like, man, screw this whole systems doesn't serve anybody
Speaker 1: like I hate this, dude. I don't care if you're
Speaker 1: threatening you with Trump. It's a radical view of the country,
Speaker 1: even from people who are self described as moderate or
Speaker 1: conservative Democratic leaning voters. Trump wins just two percent of
Speaker 1: mister Biden's very liberal twenty twenty voters who think the
Speaker 1: system at least needs maje or changes, compared with sixteen
Speaker 1: percent of those who are moditor or conservative. However, so
Speaker 1: most of the losses from Biden's twenty twenty coalition are
Speaker 1: coming among those more centrist or more conservative Democratic leaning voters. However,
Speaker 1: the one exception is on Gaza, where you do have
Speaker 1: erosion among Biden's support with young and more progressive voters.
Speaker 4: That's what they say.
Speaker 1: One exception is Israel's war in Gaza, an issue on
Speaker 1: which most of mister Biden's challenge appears to come from.
Speaker 3: Is left.
Speaker 1: Around thirteen percent of the voters who say they voted
Speaker 1: for Biden last time but do not plan to do
Speaker 1: so again say that his foreign policy or the war
Speaker 1: in Gaza was the most important issue to their vote.
Speaker 1: Just seventeen percent of those voters reported sympathizing with Israel
Speaker 1: over the Palestinians. So if you take the pool of
Speaker 1: voters who say I voted for Biden last time, I'm
Speaker 1: not doing it again, thirteen percent of them it's over
Speaker 1: his policy Visa vi Gaza, and overwhelmingly it's because they
Speaker 1: find him to be too too support of Israel, too
Speaker 1: ambivalent to the humanitarian concerns of Palestinians. So just problems
Speaker 1: really across the board for Biden and Sacer, you know,
Speaker 1: is zooming out because you're right to point out that
Speaker 1: much of his erosion, if not all, of his erosion,
Speaker 1: comes among the young and among non white voters. You know,
Speaker 1: thinking about young people in particular. Not only do you
Speaker 1: have obviously Isra's Warren Gaza, which we've talked a lot
Speaker 1: about and political impact of that as well. But you know,
Speaker 1: the real case that the Democrats make is you got
Speaker 1: to vote for us to be a bulwark against Trump.
Speaker 1: Trump is going to fix your public life for nearly
Speaker 1: a decade now in term of political public life. And
Speaker 1: so if you think about people who were coming of
Speaker 1: age when Donald Trump was, you know, running his campaign
Speaker 1: and assending to the presidency like he doesn't feel abnormal
Speaker 1: to them. This has been their adult life. So this
Speaker 1: idea of like, oh this is you know, this is
Speaker 1: extremely abnormal and we have to do everything we can
Speaker 1: to forestall this potential result of Donald Trump is sending
Speaker 1: again to the presidency. It just doesn't carry the water
Speaker 1: with them that it may with older voters who have
Speaker 1: a different conception of what the American president should see
Speaker 1: should be like in a much longer you know, personal
Speaker 1: history and experience of what that office looks like. Where
Speaker 1: Donald Trump still feels like this giant abnormality in American politics,
Speaker 1: and so I think that's part of the generational divide
Speaker 1: here as well. And then look obviously Biden being old
Speaker 1: and enfeebled and the people feeling really bad about the economy,
Speaker 1: these are terrible things for him that you know, maybe
Speaker 1: he should think about potentially running on an actual plan
Speaker 1: to deliver from people on the economy versus what is
Speaker 1: clearly not working, which is just saying abortion and Trump
Speaker 1: is bad.
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, you're right.
Speaker 2: I mean literally all you have to do is look
Speaker 2: at any of the signs that matter most, and I
Speaker 2: think that's the ability to make it. You have huge
Speaker 2: problems with wages. They always brag about their unemployment rate.
Speaker 2: Unemployment rate doesn't matter when you have millions of people
Speaker 2: who've even dropped out of the workforce, underemployed, not making
Speaker 2: enough wages to keep up with inflation. I've got it
Speaker 2: right here in front of me. Even the front page
Speaker 2: of the New York Times this morning is high interest
Speaker 2: rates are hitting poorer American's hardest. Yeah, you think, you know,
Speaker 2: imagine having to explain that to your New York Times
Speaker 2: subscriber audience, like, Wow, I had no idea that it
Speaker 2: was so difficult out there that, Oh, it turns out
Speaker 2: if you're twenty eight or twenty nine. Great point, which is,
Speaker 2: if you're twenty eight or twenty nine, only a couple
Speaker 2: of years younger than me and basically.
Speaker 3: Your entire adult life.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump really became a true political figure with birth rhythm.
Speaker 3: That was twenty eleven.
Speaker 2: That's been more than a decade now, it's thirteen years
Speaker 2: of your entire political life that you've known about this guy.
Speaker 2: You've seen all the I mean, look as somebody was there,
Speaker 2: you know, young and coming up in the business. Seeing
Speaker 2: what he did in twenty sixteen, that was crazy. This
Speaker 2: time around it just doesn't feel crazy anymore because it's not.
Speaker 2: We live through the presidency. I know what it was like.
Speaker 2: Wasn't that bad a lot of people for especially when
Speaker 2: you compare the economic data, You're like, listen, it was unambiguous.
Speaker 2: I definitely was better off under Trump. Now, there's a
Speaker 2: lot of factors. But you know, I'm here.
Speaker 3: The Biden administration basically wants to sit there and.
Speaker 2: Let you explain to them why it's not their fault
Speaker 2: it's actually Trump's fault and democracy and abortion and all that.
Speaker 2: And I won't discount that. I think it is very important.
Speaker 2: But the truth is, is it just not landing, And
Speaker 2: I don't think it should. Let's put this up there
Speaker 2: as well on the screen, because we, of course were
Speaker 2: leaving out RFK Junior in some of this analysis. They
Speaker 2: also included RFK Junior in the three way or actually
Speaker 2: in a five way race. So here's what we have
Speaker 2: in Nevada, and this is with RFK Junior, Jill Stein
Speaker 2: and all of them who are included. In Nevada, Trump
Speaker 2: is up fourteen percent with RFK Junior on the ballot.
Speaker 2: In Georgia, Trump is up eight percent with RFK Junior
Speaker 2: on the ballot. In Wisconsin, Trump is up, it's up
Speaker 2: by one percent. With RFK Junior. Michigan, Biden is only
Speaker 2: up by three. Pennsylvania, Trump is up by four. Arizona,
Speaker 2: Trump is up by nine. Now keep in mind that
Speaker 2: you might be tempted to say, oh, this means that
Speaker 2: RFK Junior is taking more away from Trump or from Biden.
Speaker 2: It's actually not true. He draws equally according to these
Speaker 2: cross tabs, both from Joe Biden and from Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: It's just that the lead for Trump gets exacerbated when
Speaker 2: you also include Jill Stein in some of these, where
Speaker 2: you see both the libertarian candidate and Jill Stein draw
Speaker 2: significantly more away from Joe Biden. So it is clear
Speaker 2: now too why Joe Biden has been so undemocratic in
Speaker 2: the Democratic primary and others, because it is very obvious
Speaker 2: that any any third party ballot is just devastating for
Speaker 2: him because it gives people options. The less options that
Speaker 2: people can have, they're gonna be bad for him. Trump too,
Speaker 2: by the way, I mean, even though he is leading
Speaker 2: in this, it's not like he isn't winning in these cases.
Speaker 2: He's winning only a plurality, not nearly. You know, any
Speaker 2: sort of outright majority in any of these states.
Speaker 1: Can we put those numbers back up on the screen,
Speaker 1: because I just want to emphasize the Nevada numbers, which
Speaker 1: are stunning. Okay, look at this Trump forty four, Biden
Speaker 1: thirty thirty percent of the vote in a state that
Speaker 1: you won pretty handily. It wasn't all that close in
Speaker 1: the end. Last time around, RFK Junior pulling eleven percent.
Speaker 1: Map said, who's I guess anticipated to be the Libertarian candidate?
Speaker 4: Their convention is what this weekend?
Speaker 1: Something like that in any case pulling two percent and
Speaker 1: Jill Stein pulling one percent. Thirty percent of the vote.
Speaker 1: Zejilani floated on Twitter, which I think is an interesting
Speaker 1: theory that part of why Biden is doing particularly bad
Speaker 1: in a place like Nevada is, I mean, for one thing,
Speaker 1: you have this younger, more working class, and more diverse
Speaker 1: electorate where you know, they're looking at the interest rate phenomenon,
Speaker 1: the fact like I'm never going to be able to
Speaker 1: afford a house and now am I ever going to
Speaker 1: send my kids to college? And young people are looking
Speaker 1: like what future do I possibly have? And you know
Speaker 1: it's directly downstream of that that you see these huge
Speaker 1: gulf emerge in favor of Donald Trump. It's really I mean,
Speaker 1: it's really astonishing if these polls are anywhere close to correct,
Speaker 1: like it's.
Speaker 4: Something dramatic, dramatic.
Speaker 1: Would really have to change in favor of Joe Biden.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 1: The one other thing that I just want to point
Speaker 1: out because it's a particular annoyance for me, is I
Speaker 1: saw all kinds of you know, centrist types on Twitter,
Speaker 1: like scolding the lad dare you criticized Biden over Israel
Speaker 1: and your gosslame the election?
Speaker 4: Blah blah blah.
Speaker 1: Just first of all, people have a right to criticize
Speaker 1: the president, especially when he's enabling with our tax dollars atrocities.
Speaker 1: So just from a moral perspective, that position, to me
Speaker 1: is completely bankrupt. But second of all, it's not even
Speaker 1: consistent with where the biggest problems are for Joe Biden.
Speaker 1: Where's the scolding of the moderates and the centrists in
Speaker 1: the conservative leaning Democrats who are fleeing him over a
Speaker 1: variety of issues, but I think economic issues in particular,
Speaker 1: and just their sense that he's too frick and old
Speaker 1: as well. Where's that scolding and freak out and you know,
Speaker 1: preparing to blame them and throw them under the bus
Speaker 1: for handing the election or being secret Trump supporters or whatever.
Speaker 1: So there's a lot in here that really does dispel
Speaker 1: some of the media narratives about the contours of this election.
Speaker 1: But given how close it was last time around, it
Speaker 1: is true that any one piece of this coalition eroding
Speaker 1: away from Joe Biden, any one piece, could be fatal
Speaker 1: for his reelection chances.
Speaker 4: And when you have multiple piece.
Speaker 1: Basically the only people who are really strong with him
Speaker 1: and been consistent are like old white people.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's pretty much it, right, And.
Speaker 1: So when you have erosion everywhere else, what do you
Speaker 1: think the picture is going.
Speaker 4: To look like?
Speaker 3: Absolutely?
Speaker 2: You know, I would be remiss too important about Nevada.
Speaker 2: You know, the gas price in Nevada is still four
Speaker 2: dollars and forty cents a gallon, and actually it's five
Speaker 2: twenty in California. I don't know how you wow out there,
Speaker 2: that's crazy, But Nevada, I mean, the economy in Nevada
Speaker 2: has always been very, very sensitive not only to gas prices, tourism,
Speaker 2: high inflation. That's going to affect people who are coming
Speaker 2: in lower overall consumer spending. That's what they're particularly vulnerable to.
Speaker 2: So it would make sense to me also that they're
Speaker 2: very attuned. Their housing market has also always been crazy,
Speaker 2: basically see since two thousand and eight. So all of
Speaker 2: that comes back to the actual fundamentals.
Speaker 3: Here you have.
Speaker 2: Again we'll play CNN's Harry End and it's just always
Speaker 2: amusing to see people in mainstream spaces.
Speaker 3: Have to grapple with what's going on. And here's what
Speaker 3: he had to say.
Speaker 6: I think it's essentially saying that we have a divide
Speaker 6: between the Sumbout and Great Lake battleground states. All Right,
Speaker 6: you know, these are all six states that Joe Biden
Speaker 6: won last time around. They won by the closest margin
Speaker 6: of enery states. He wont look these sumbout battleground states.
Speaker 6: Frankly for the Joe Biden campaign. These numbers are an
Speaker 6: absolute disaster. The smallest leaders in Arizona for Donald Trump,
Speaker 6: He's up six. Look at this nine in Georgia, thirteen
Speaker 6: in Nevada. My goodness, gracious, my god, that is a
Speaker 6: huge lead. No Democrat has lost that state since John
Speaker 6: Kerry lost it back in two thousand and four. About
Speaker 6: these Great Lake battleground states. This is something that the
Speaker 6: Joe Biden campaign can work with. Look, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump
Speaker 6: up three, but that's well within the margin of error. Wisconsin,
Speaker 6: donald Trump up one, well within the margin of error.
Speaker 6: And actually a Joe Biden lead well within the margin
Speaker 6: of error up a point here. This they can work
Speaker 6: with the Joe Biden campaign. This the Donald campaign. Donald
Speaker 6: Trump campaign absolutely loves and it looks like a lot
Speaker 6: of the other polling out of the Sunbelt battle and
Speaker 6: the Trump coalition is changing. That's basically what's cooking here.
Speaker 6: This is at least one of the big reasons why
Speaker 6: so this is among likely voters in these in all
Speaker 6: these battleground states we just spoke about. Back in twenty twenty,
Speaker 6: eighty four percent of the Trump campaigns, the Trump coalition
Speaker 6: was white. Look where it is now, it's seventy eight percent.
Speaker 6: The non white portion of the Trump coalition. It was
Speaker 6: thirteen percent in twenty twenty. Look at this now it's
Speaker 6: nineteen percent.
Speaker 3: Yep.
Speaker 2: I mean, he's laying out exactly and it's just the
Speaker 2: stunning nature that comes to him is amazing. You also,
Speaker 2: we have some of the quotes just from people it's
Speaker 2: always good to hear actual anecdotal Why exactly I am
Speaker 2: the way I am right now, let's put this up
Speaker 2: there on the screen. This is, for example, somebody who's
Speaker 2: voting split ticket and Brian Dickinson. He's a twenty five
Speaker 2: year old registered Democrat. He says, Jackie Rosen has been
Speaker 2: around a long time. He said he was considering splitting
Speaker 2: his ticket and voting for Trump. I think she's a
Speaker 2: very good Democrat. Let's go to the next one.
Speaker 3: I love people now.
Speaker 2: This guy, Terry Crabtree. He is a disabled, fifty two
Speaker 2: year old from Maricopa County. He says, I'm not a
Speaker 2: party person. I am more for the state, and Diego
Speaker 2: has done a good job for the state.
Speaker 4: I cannot democrat Bay.
Speaker 2: He's a Democrat, and he says I cannot stand Biden.
Speaker 2: I think he ought to be in prison. I think
Speaker 2: Trump should be in prison as well. I hate being
Speaker 2: given those two choices.
Speaker 4: Relatable sentiment.
Speaker 2: Next one, this is Joseph Gonzalez. He is a sixty
Speaker 2: year old Hispanic truck driver in Milwaukee. This is of
Speaker 2: Tammy Baldwin. He says, I think I like what she's
Speaker 2: basically doing. But on Biden, he says, I do not
Speaker 2: like what Biden is doing. He's failing for the United
Speaker 2: States one please. And what you see in all of
Speaker 2: these is that you basically have a lot of people
Speaker 2: who are willing to split tickets. Because what we didn't
Speaker 2: show you is that in the same poll that had
Speaker 2: Trump winning every single swing state, the Democrats are up
Speaker 2: in every Senate state. Bob Casey beating Dave McCormick. You
Speaker 2: have Jackie Rosen, She's up over her opponent in Nevada.
Speaker 2: I mean, you actually have a case where, I.
Speaker 3: Mean, this would be nuts.
Speaker 2: So let's say this is correct, where Trump would win
Speaker 2: not only the popular vote with the electoral college, but
Speaker 2: the Democrats would actually be actually win every single contested
Speaker 2: election and keep the US Senate.
Speaker 3: That's totally within the possibility with.
Speaker 4: Am absolutely is and I think it's another.
Speaker 1: So the Democratic cope, which is with some basis right,
Speaker 1: is that Okay, yeah, we've been seeing these poles that
Speaker 1: are bad for a while, including before the midterms when
Speaker 1: we outperformed. Let's not forget that. But you know, when
Speaker 1: it comes to voters actually going to the polls, they
Speaker 1: are backing Democrats, and the polls are understating Democratic support go,
Speaker 1: we don't buy these polls. There's just an Axios piece
Speaker 1: this morning about how the Biden team genuinely doesn't believe
Speaker 1: the polls. They think it's all well and good. They
Speaker 1: think they're perfectly fine, and that is the basis for
Speaker 1: their reasoning. Well, what you see in these polls is
Speaker 1: that no, no, no. The fact that we're voting for
Speaker 1: Democrats at the state level, for Congress, even for Senate,
Speaker 1: that has nothing to do with Joe Biden. Joe Biden
Speaker 1: is a different matter altogether, and there's a different sentiment
Speaker 1: when it comes to him. And so that's why it's
Speaker 1: so interesting to hear these swing state voters who are saying, no, Actually,
Speaker 1: I like Ruben Gag, I like Jackie Rose. I think
Speaker 1: she's a good Democrat. I think she's doing good job.
Speaker 1: Tam Baldwin, I'm good with these sort of like more
Speaker 1: generic Democrats, but I have a specific negative sentiment about
Speaker 1: Joe Biden. And so at least according to these polls,
Speaker 1: you could see some remarkable levels of ticket splitting that
Speaker 1: we haven't seen in years. I mean, the whole trend
Speaker 1: has been in the opposite direction, where people are party
Speaker 1: line voters, and it's all tribal, and it's all just
Speaker 1: divided by what your party affiliation is, and so there's
Speaker 1: very little splitting of the ticket between you know, presidential
Speaker 1: Canada Senate candidate or on down the line. These poles say, no,
Speaker 1: Joe Biden is performing uniquely badly among all voters. And
Speaker 1: so you could very well see, if again these polls
Speaker 1: are accurate, a situation where the rest of the Democratic
Speaker 1: Party ticket does great. The ballot initiative, abortion ballot initiatives
Speaker 1: for you know, on the pro choice side do fantastic.
Speaker 1: The congressional people running for Congress, for the House, for
Speaker 1: the Senate, etc. Do great on the Democratic side, and
Speaker 1: Joe Biden gets his butt handed to him. That is
Speaker 1: a real scenario that is on the table right now.
Speaker 1: I just want to go back and make one comment
Speaker 1: about the Harry Enton analysis there where he had you know,
Speaker 1: the sun Belt States versus the what used to be
Speaker 1: called the blue Wall States piled you know, industrial Midwest,
Speaker 1: and it's very clear why Biden is kind of hanging
Speaker 1: in there in the Blue Wall States versus getting obliterated
Speaker 1: in the sun Belt States, which he won last time
Speaker 1: with much fanfare. And this was the new Democratic Coalition,
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. It's because those Sun Belt states
Speaker 1: are younger and more diverse, and the industrial Midwestern states
Speaker 1: have more older white people, and that's who Joe Biden
Speaker 1: is continuing to.
Speaker 4: Do well with. So that's why you see that divide.
Speaker 1: And I think that Harry Enton is right to say, listen,
Speaker 1: if you're going to make a stand and you're going
Speaker 1: to try to eke out your narrow path to two seventy,
Speaker 1: the place to really place your bets is, you know, Wisconsin, Michigan,
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania versus Nevada, Arizona, Georgia.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: No, I think you're absolutely right. And look, let's not
Speaker 2: erase it's still you know, it's only May. There're several
Speaker 2: months ago. Abortion has scrambled everything. Recent evidence suggests that
Speaker 2: we should not undercount Democratic support. Further, recent evidence says
Speaker 2: we should not underestimate Trump support in all of these
Speaker 2: So we genuinely have no idea. But just to underscore
Speaker 2: how big of a problem this is, let's put this
Speaker 2: up there on the screen.
Speaker 3: This is what the elector College would look like if
Speaker 3: there were no toss ups.
Speaker 2: According to the RCP, polling average, Joe Biden would win
Speaker 2: two hundred and twenty six electoral votes. Trump would win
Speaker 2: a stunning three hundred and twelve. I mean, we have
Speaker 2: not actually seen an electoral college victory like that in
Speaker 2: a long time in this country, so that would certainly
Speaker 2: be something to wake up on. Whatever in what is
Speaker 2: it November fifth, twenty twenty four, Please don't prosecute me
Speaker 2: for election missing.
Speaker 3: I'm just speculating.
Speaker 2: I'm not putting it out there, but let's put the
Speaker 2: next one there up on the screen. This is also
Speaker 2: important to highlight because this is from an anonymous Twitter account.
Speaker 2: You miss voted a great guy, by the way he says,
Speaker 2: or know who it is. We are back to twenty sixteen.
Speaker 2: People want to tear down the system entirely or want
Speaker 2: major changes. This highlights what you said. Most Americans think
Speaker 2: that the system needs to change. The system needs to
Speaker 2: be torn down entirely fourteen percent, Major changes fifty five percent,
Speaker 2: no change twenty seven percent. And I think really what
Speaker 2: you see too, is with Trump support about who they
Speaker 2: think is going to bring more change.
Speaker 3: This has always been Trump's fundamental strength.
Speaker 2: Twenty five percent of people think it's going to tear
Speaker 2: down the system entirely, and a major forty five percent
Speaker 2: of people think he will bring major changes. Trump was
Speaker 2: the chaos, shake things up candidate, and this gets right
Speaker 2: as he aptletely correct. Twenty sixteen is the correct metaphor
Speaker 2: because twenty sixteen was a status quo or a change election.
Speaker 2: Twenty twenty was kind of It was a change election,
Speaker 2: but I guess change away from the chaos, and this
Speaker 2: kind of validates a theory of politics that basically posts
Speaker 2: nineteen ninety six. Every election, almost for the last twenty
Speaker 2: something years has been a quote unquote change election. It's
Speaker 2: just that who and what we think of change in
Speaker 2: that time is what really motivates people to come to
Speaker 2: the ballot box. This is a totally different switch from
Speaker 2: the early center. I'm reading a book right now called
Speaker 2: crand Expectations, which is all about the United States from
Speaker 2: nineteen forty five to nineteen seventy two.
Speaker 3: It is fascinating for me to.
Speaker 2: Think and put my head in a space where Americans
Speaker 2: not only had faith, but a deep love and affection
Speaker 2: for the institutions and for the status quo. We don't
Speaker 2: live in that time anymore. It is we're really living
Speaker 2: through nineteen thirties again or in nineteen twenties, like complete
Speaker 2: just dissatisfaction, chaos, not just from protests and others. We
Speaker 2: had a brief period in the nineteen sixties, but this
Speaker 2: is a sustained period of people wanting change now for
Speaker 2: so long that it is it is very reminiscent of
Speaker 2: a very long time ago in American history.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this theory of recent politics is that you have
Speaker 1: this yo yo effect between almost even like presidential personality.
Speaker 1: So you have you know, George W. Bush, who presents
Speaker 1: us this sort of like sider you know, yeah, low
Speaker 1: iq relative, you know, plain spoken whatever, and then the
Speaker 1: backlash to that brings you Obama, the professorial error diite
Speaker 1: like you know, incredibly rhetorically gifted, et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 1: Then from Obama you go to you know, the populist
Speaker 1: rabble rouser at least that's his affect, Donald try tr so,
Speaker 1: you know, told, whereas Obama is this picture of sort
Speaker 1: of like civilized sophistication, Trump is this you know, rude,
Speaker 1: crude reality TV star. Then you go to Biden. So
Speaker 1: from the chaos of Trump, then it's like, ah, can
Speaker 1: we just have things be like a little bit normal
Speaker 1: and like not crazy every single friking day. Joe Biden
Speaker 1: the picture of like boring standard normalcy in Washington, d C. That, especially,
Speaker 1: you know, coming as he did among like COVID and
Speaker 1: the chaos that was going on there and the incredible
Speaker 1: dissatisfaction with you know, the state of affairs during COVID,
Speaker 1: he's able to come in. And then what these polls
Speaker 1: point to and why they're significant, is the landscape's really
Speaker 1: different from twenty twenty, right, And by the way, you know,
Speaker 1: the sense of like normalcy and the back to brunch
Speaker 1: pitch it.
Speaker 4: Didn't really work out. Still a lot of chaos.
Speaker 1: World still feels incredibly unsettled, maybe more so than ever.
Speaker 1: So what is the Biden pitch this time? Like, what
Speaker 1: is he really selling other than just I'm not Trump
Speaker 1: and you know, abortion, that's it. So according to these polls,
Speaker 1: that's not going to be sufficient for a group of
Speaker 1: voters that overwhelmingly are like, now, we got to do
Speaker 1: some things that are really different at this point because
Speaker 1: this direction we're going on is an absolute disaster. And
Speaker 1: you know, if you're thinking about who's going to overturn
Speaker 1: the apple cart it's not Joe Biden, it's Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: And I think you know, plenty would argue like, Okay,
Speaker 1: we'll change for change sake is not good and chaos
Speaker 1: is not, you know, just inherently a good thing. But
Speaker 1: if you look at the number of people who say
Speaker 1: we want major change or to tear the whole system down,
Speaker 1: those people are overwhelmingly going for Trump, and they make
Speaker 1: up the bulk of American voters at this point. So
Speaker 1: in some ways I think that that those numbers are
Speaker 1: almost the most insightful into what the political climate is
Speaker 1: right now and why it is really not a political
Speaker 1: climate that is conducive to the re election of Joseph Robinette.
Speaker 3: Biden well said, you don't have to take it from
Speaker 3: us here.
Speaker 2: You've got Joe Biden's favorite political commentator, which is always
Speaker 2: very difficult for me to say. Farid with Zakaria over
Speaker 2: at CNN on Saturday giving a monologue that Biden almost
Speaker 2: certainly saw, in which he sounds a very dire warning.
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 7: None of this is playing out as I thought it would.
Speaker 7: Trump is now leading in almost all the swing states,
Speaker 7: But behind those numbers lie even more troubling details. As
Speaker 7: someone worried about the prospects of a second Trump term,
Speaker 7: I think it's best to be honest about reality. I
Speaker 7: understand that polls are not always accurate, but in general
Speaker 7: they have tended to underestimate Donald Trump's support, not overestimated.
Speaker 7: I doubt that there are many shy Biden voters in
Speaker 7: the country. Perhaps the most worrying new trend for the
Speaker 7: Democrats is that far from being the more unified party,
Speaker 7: they are now bitterly divided over the Warren Gazo. Bernie
Speaker 7: Sanders has said the eruption of pro Palestinian protests could
Speaker 7: be Biden's Vietnam, and even invoked the specter of Lyndon
Speaker 7: Johnson choosing not to run for re election in nineteen
Speaker 7: sixty eight, because with the opposition to that war, the
Speaker 7: analogy is far fetched. America then was itself sending hundreds
Speaker 7: of thousands of troops to Vietnam, with more being recruited
Speaker 7: from college campuses every week. But there's no denying that
Speaker 7: the party seems more openly divided than it has been
Speaker 7: in decades. Only thirty three percent of Americans said they
Speaker 7: approved of Biden's handling of the Israel Hamas War, which
Speaker 7: is now opposed both by people who think he is
Speaker 7: too soft and people who think he is too hard
Speaker 7: on Israel. Meanwhile, Republicans seem to be uniting behind Trump.
Speaker 7: Whatever opposition he faced in the primaries has largely melted away.
Speaker 7: The one that troubles me the most is on the
Speaker 7: question of who was the more competent. Joe Biden led
Speaker 7: Donald Trump by nine points in twenty twenty, but Trump
Speaker 7: now leads by sixteen points in January twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: Look, can't really dispute a single word of what he says.
Speaker 2: We also have an interesting interview with Charlemagne, the God.
Speaker 3: Who did for The New York Times, interestingly.
Speaker 2: Enough, which perhaps represents some of the sentiment that we
Speaker 2: saw the bleeding way of black voters for Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: This is for what he had to say about why
Speaker 2: he won't be endorsing Biden again.
Speaker 8: I'm not endorsedon because I just feel like I've been
Speaker 8: burned with that before. You know, because you put your
Speaker 8: name on the line, you endorse somebody, You tell your
Speaker 8: audience this is who you should go out there and
Speaker 8: vote for, and your audience goes and does it. And
Speaker 8: then when they don't see these things that they thought
Speaker 8: were going to get pushed through, they don't understand civics.
Speaker 3: They're not thinking about that.
Speaker 8: They're like, all they know is Charlemagne told me to
Speaker 8: vote for this person because this was going to happen,
Speaker 8: and this didn't happen. I think they said the numbers
Speaker 8: like twenty two percent. I don't think that twenty two
Speaker 8: percent of black people are going vote for Donald Trump.
Speaker 8: I think the biggest thing that people are going to
Speaker 8: have to fight against this year is the couch. And
Speaker 8: that's what I've been saying. I keep saying it over
Speaker 8: and over, like this election is three options. Republicans who
Speaker 8: are to crooks, Democrats who would have couch because they
Speaker 8: don't fight enough for nothing in the couch, and the
Speaker 8: couch is voter apathy.
Speaker 1: Crooks versus the cowards versus the couch. That's what pres due,
Speaker 1: to be honest.
Speaker 3: With you, He's right.
Speaker 2: I mean, look, we've had the problem is is that
Speaker 2: I actually think a low turnout election plays out in
Speaker 2: Biden's favor because it just means that the people who
Speaker 2: love to vote and who vote in every election, boomers
Speaker 2: and white suburban ladies, those are the people who are
Speaker 2: going to vote for Biden. Whereas I think, as we
Speaker 2: showed back in twenty twenty, high turnout election generally meet.
Speaker 2: In twenty sixteen two twenty sixteen, millions of people who had.
Speaker 3: Not voted as the nineteen eighties came out and voted
Speaker 3: for Trump.
Speaker 2: It's part of the reason when the polls were so off,
Speaker 2: they've not only came back to the polls, they brought
Speaker 2: even more people who had never voted before in twenty twenty.
Speaker 2: If we have a lower turnout election, lest it was
Speaker 2: a forties or fifty percent this time around as opposed
Speaker 2: to two thirds last time, I think it plays out
Speaker 2: in Joe Biden's favor.
Speaker 3: But look, you never know, right, Yeah, there's a lot
Speaker 3: of confounding.
Speaker 1: Stuff, and Charlamagne doesn't bring up any specific issues there,
Speaker 1: but I know in the past he's talked about, you know,
Speaker 1: great disappointment over the promises that were made over voting
Speaker 1: rights in particular, and then there's just you know, they
Speaker 1: said that during the election because they wanted to make
Speaker 1: sure that black voters turn out to the poll and
Speaker 1: signal that you know, we're on your side, et cetera.
Speaker 1: And then to his point about them being cowards not
Speaker 1: just on this issue, but on any number of.
Speaker 4: Issues that you could take a look at. Let me
Speaker 4: get there.
Speaker 1: There's just nothing but excuses for why we can't do this.
Speaker 1: We can't do that. Sorry, we tried, We want to,
Speaker 1: but we're with you, but we just it's just too hard.
Speaker 1: Except when it comes to funding worse then you know,
Speaker 1: then it happens. Then the bipartisan magic comes together and
Speaker 1: whatever needs to pass comes to pass. So you know,
Speaker 1: you can't blame him for feeling like I was made
Speaker 1: a set of promises I used, I trusted that I
Speaker 1: made a set of promises and effect to my audience
Speaker 1: saying like, I think this is the person who can
Speaker 1: deliver these things that you're interested in, and I'm just
Speaker 1: not going to put myself in that position. Again, you
Speaker 1: really can't blame them. Just quickly going back to Free
Speaker 1: Zakaria and his commentary about the Israel's assault on Gaza,
Speaker 1: there were some interesting numbers in this poll as well.
Speaker 1: They asked the question about who do you sympathize more
Speaker 1: with the Israelis or the Palestinians. Democrats Now a plurality
Speaker 1: sympathized with the Palestinians, which is an extraordinary shift from
Speaker 1: previous years. Up to this point, you have thirty five
Speaker 1: percent who say they sympathize with the Palestinians, over twenty
Speaker 1: four percent who say they sympathize with the Israelis. The
Speaker 1: remainders say don't know or both equally. Republicans very one sided.
Speaker 1: It's seventy two percent sympathize more with Israel, six percent
Speaker 1: to sympathize more with the Palestinians. And the other thing
Speaker 1: is huge h divide, which won't surprise you, guys if
Speaker 1: you've been watching this coverage eighteen to twenty nine, you
Speaker 1: got forty seven percent who say we sympathize more with
Speaker 1: the Palestine, so very close to a majority. Owned twenty
Speaker 1: three percent say they're with the Israelis sixty five plus
Speaker 1: opposite majority. Fifty five percent were with Israel, only fourteen
Speaker 1: percent were with the Palestinians.
Speaker 4: So you see.
Speaker 1: Huge both partisan and generational divides in terms of how
Speaker 1: they're viewing this conflict. And to Frei Zakaria's accurate point,
Speaker 1: this has really Joe Biden's policy here is not popular
Speaker 1: with the Democratic base and has really divided the Democratic
Speaker 1: coalition and created not just apathy but utter disgust among
Speaker 1: some certain portion of that Democratic base.
Speaker 4: So you know, these are.
Speaker 1: When you look at who's fleeing the Biden camp. As
Speaker 1: we said before, most of those people are actually more
Speaker 1: on the moderate to conservative side. But of the lefties
Speaker 1: and progressives who voted for him in twenty twenty and
Speaker 1: who have left the Biden camp, it is overwhelmingly over
Speaker 1: this one issue.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's Look, he's got coalitional problems all over the map.
Speaker 2: He can't really afford any of them, not really inspiring
Speaker 2: or speaking to the wants and the needs of concerns
Speaker 2: of any and so you get basically a total collapse.
Speaker 3: I mean more and more.
Speaker 2: This just looks a lot like Jimmy Carter that I've
Speaker 2: said previously. His only saving grace is some sort of
Speaker 2: hidden abortion you know phenomenon, which is a hell of
Speaker 2: a thing to you know, to bet your entire political
Speaker 2: future on. That's stunning. But that's that is the choice
Speaker 2: that he has decided to make. Yah, It's the most
Speaker 2: apathetic choice you could possibly make. But it makes sense
Speaker 2: for what some an eighty two year old man who
Speaker 2: would be if he were to be reelected.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're they're opting for just running on abortion and
Speaker 1: Trump is bad, and really avoiding campaigning anywhere where they
Speaker 1: can see this descent, including as we covered yesterday, very
Speaker 1: possibly moving the entire DNC online to avoid recriminations from
Speaker 1: their own voter base. I just listen for people who
Speaker 1: are a little younger. I don't know if you could understand,
Speaker 1: like Obama was the candidate of like the College. The
Speaker 1: whole idea was these younger generations are going to be
Speaker 1: firmly in the Democratic camp, like it's done as they
Speaker 1: come of age. Republicans are totally screwed. There were books
Speaker 1: that were I think it was what James Carvell wrote
Speaker 1: this book forty more years based on this concept of
Speaker 1: you know, these young people are growing up and there'll
Speaker 1: be a bulk of a voting population and then it's
Speaker 1: over for the Republicans. So the idea that a Democratic
Speaker 1: president cannot even go to a college campus disaster, utter
Speaker 1: and complete disaster. All right on the other side of
Speaker 1: a ledger, we have one Donald Trump who's spending his
Speaker 1: week in a Manhattan courtroom, and as I teased earlier,
Speaker 1: the prosecution had their star witness on the stand yesterday.
Speaker 1: That would be former Trump fixer Michael Cohen, who was
Speaker 1: at the center of these quote unquote hush money payments.
Speaker 1: You know, he was the one who interfaced with them
Speaker 1: and facilitated them.
Speaker 4: He actually actually he had a mo I forgot this.
Speaker 4: He mortgaged his house to be.
Speaker 1: Able to make the payment, and then Trump pays him back.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 1: The legal question here is were those payments properly recorded
Speaker 1: and should they have been logged instead as a campaign
Speaker 1: finance expenditure. And the key legal question there is whether
Speaker 1: they were exclusively to benefit the campaign or whether there
Speaker 1: were other reasons along with it could also have a
Speaker 1: campaign benefit, But were there other reasons for making these payments?
Speaker 1: For example, wanting your wanting to avoid your wife finding
Speaker 1: out about your affair with a porn star. Alleged affair
Speaker 1: with a porn star. He still denies it. Okay, let's
Speaker 1: put this up on the screen. In terms of what
Speaker 1: Michael Cohen had to say, he says Trump was primarily
Speaker 1: concerned about presidential election when he sought to bury Stormy
Speaker 1: Daniel's testimony. He says that Cohen testified after he told
Speaker 1: Trump Daniels claims might resurface that fall. Trump grew angry
Speaker 1: with him, told him to quote, just take care of it.
Speaker 1: He said to me, this is a disaster, total disaster.
Speaker 1: Women are going to hate This is really a disaster.
Speaker 4: Women will hate me.
Speaker 1: Guys may think it's cool, but this is going to
Speaker 1: be a disaster for the campaign. At the time, Cohen explained,
Speaker 1: mister Trump was pulling very, very low with women. He
Speaker 1: was pulling very poorly with women, and this coupled with
Speaker 1: the previous Access Hollywood tape. So that's an important piece
Speaker 1: of context. Here is this Stormy Daniels you know story
Speaker 1: potentially coming out happened in the wake of Access Hollywood
Speaker 1: when there was real concern about it, how women voters
Speaker 1: were going to view them and whether they, you know,
Speaker 1: would totally take his campaign. When Cohen asked how Stormy
Speaker 1: Daniels claims might impact Trump's relationship with Milania, Trump told him, quote,
Speaker 1: don't worry, He goes, how long do you think I'll
Speaker 1: be on the market for?
Speaker 4: Not long?
Speaker 1: Cohen recounted, So basically the implication they're like, if Millennia
Speaker 1: leaves me, like, I'm not going to be on the
Speaker 1: market for long. Some woman is going to snatch me
Speaker 1: up right away. It's not going to be any issue
Speaker 1: she divorces me, is you know, allegedly allegedly what I
Speaker 1: have been here? And Cohen concludes he wasn't thinking about millenia.
Speaker 1: This was all about the campaign. So that's his side
Speaker 1: of the story. The defense is going to talk and
Speaker 1: already has talked a lot about you know, Michael Cohen
Speaker 1: is a convicted felin for it wasn't convicted for lying liar,
Speaker 1: So that's a challenge. And you also have listen. There
Speaker 1: was a tape that Cohen has that relates to Susan
Speaker 1: McDougall's she used the other Karen mccaron McDougal.
Speaker 4: I always get that wrong.
Speaker 1: I don't want to call her Susan, but anyway, sorry
Speaker 1: Karen Karen mc Karen McDougall, and the payments that he
Speaker 1: facilitated with David Packer in National Choir or whatever. But
Speaker 1: he doesn't have any direct documentation of these conversations. And
Speaker 1: these conversations are really really critical because they do get
Speaker 1: at that question of whether this was directly a campaign
Speaker 1: expenditure or whether it had to do with the campaign,
Speaker 1: but also with I want to hide this from my wife,
Speaker 1: So it becomes kind of a he said, he said,
Speaker 1: and who the jury believes wants to believe, et cetera.
Speaker 1: So in any case, this is you know, this was
Speaker 1: this case from the prosecution was really building to this
Speaker 1: moment with Michael Cohen, and this is the story.
Speaker 4: He had to say.
Speaker 2: That's right, and right ahead of the testimony, Crystal Trump
Speaker 2: had this to say.
Speaker 3: This help comes from Biden in the White House.
Speaker 7: By the way, and they have the top equal here
Speaker 7: because he can't when he can't win two sentences together.
Speaker 9: He's the worst president in the history of our country.
Speaker 7: Can't speak, can't walk off a helicopter, can't walk off
Speaker 7: a play, can't walk off a sage.
Speaker 9: And the only way they think they can win is that.
Speaker 5: They can do something with trub because we have.
Speaker 7: An incompetent, the worst president in the history of the
Speaker 7: United States.
Speaker 2: Trump has been really enjoying doing these press conferences in
Speaker 2: the trial. He seems to think that it makes him
Speaker 2: look strong. I actually think, though, the more that we
Speaker 2: continue to look at a lot of the polling, Crystal
Speaker 2: that if anything, it's either a.
Speaker 3: Distraction or as long as Biden is.
Speaker 2: At the center of attention, and people are feeling macroeconomic conditions,
Speaker 2: not thinking about Trump in general. Most people don't give
Speaker 2: a shit about his political about his court appearances or whatever.
Speaker 3: If he's convicted, maybe, you know, it be another story.
Speaker 2: But the more consequential legal cases, the ones that people
Speaker 2: really care about, trial is not likely to happen before
Speaker 2: the election. The Trump people seem to think is a
Speaker 2: net good for him.
Speaker 3: I don't. I'm not going to go that far.
Speaker 2: I don't think it's a good thing to be on
Speaker 2: trial or to have people talk about affairs or even
Speaker 2: the thing is with Michael Cohen too. With Michael Cohen,
Speaker 2: the only reason he turned on Trump is because Trump
Speaker 2: refused to pay him. Trump didn't want to continue to
Speaker 2: pay his legal expenses. That was it. It was that
Speaker 2: petty of a manner. And after that he flips on him.
Speaker 2: He starts pleading guilty, cooperating as a federal witness, and
Speaker 2: now you know, turning and embracing like the diaper Don
Speaker 2: conspiracy and all this other stuff.
Speaker 4: But what doesn't besmirch the diaper Don considracy.
Speaker 2: But what's important to remember is that up until twenty eighteen,
Speaker 2: whenever he flipped, he was the most ardent Trump defender.
Speaker 3: It was on television. I used to deal with him.
Speaker 2: I was a White House course, But I want to
Speaker 2: see this idio walking around the White House grounds consultly.
Speaker 3: Mister Trump is the greatest businessman of all time.
Speaker 2: These are just you know, the classic hangar honors of politics,
Speaker 2: of people who surround the super rich and the wealthy.
Speaker 2: So it's very difficult to take him as a serious person,
Speaker 2: especially with so many of his utterances.
Speaker 1: It's actually, it's actually interesting. He talks some about how
Speaker 1: much he loved and worshiped.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: I've he talked some about that in this courtroom appearance,
Speaker 1: and how his fondest wish and desire was just to
Speaker 1: make Trump happy. And if he did something that was
Speaker 1: good and Trump praised him, man, that.
Speaker 4: Just lit up his whole life.
Speaker 1: Which is how you end up, I guess, taking the
Speaker 1: mortgage out on your house in order to pay a
Speaker 1: billionaire's hush money payments. And then yeah, he's like, he's
Speaker 1: sort of like the jilted lover. You know, Trump refuses
Speaker 1: to back him after all of his loyalty and won't
Speaker 1: pay his legal bills and whatever. And now it's a
Speaker 1: it's a total one to eighty in terms of his
Speaker 1: views of Donald Trump, and you know, becoming this star
Speaker 1: witness for the prosecution. It is a wild situation given
Speaker 1: that of all the cases that are out there, many
Speaker 1: with much more serious allegation, all of the other ones
Speaker 1: with much more serious allegations than this one, this is it.
Speaker 1: I mean the other ones, it's there. They're not happening
Speaker 1: before election day. Now that doesn't mean that they're over.
Speaker 1: If Trump loses, He's still an incredible legal jeopardy from
Speaker 1: all of those cases. So it's not like they're dead dead,
Speaker 1: but in terms of electoral concern, for all intents and purposes,
Speaker 1: they are. This is the This is the whole ball game.
Speaker 1: One other thing to note about the thought that we
Speaker 1: showed you of Trump, you had behind him a number
Speaker 1: of Republican officials, including Senators Tommy Teverville and Jade Vance
Speaker 1: and Congresswoman Nicole mally Takis.
Speaker 4: Is that her name?
Speaker 3: Yes? Okay?
Speaker 1: In any case, you've now got like the new way
Speaker 1: to kiss the Trump ring is to show up and
Speaker 1: be there at the courtroom with him and give your
Speaker 1: own little press conference about what a which hunted is
Speaker 1: blah blah, blah, and JD obviously is like, you know,
Speaker 1: trying to position himself to hopefully be the Trump VP pick.
Speaker 1: Kind of doubtful that he'll get the nod, but you
Speaker 1: never know. So he was he, you know, was making
Speaker 1: his moves to get into the Trump's best possible graces.
Speaker 2: That's right, JD was there. Vivike Ramaswami will be there today.
Speaker 2: Oh for real, Yes, Vecas on site as we speak.
Speaker 3: Courthouse. Oh, here we go, okay, here, I have a
Speaker 3: full list.
Speaker 2: Like an exclusively not exclusively everybody speaker. Mike Johnson will
Speaker 2: be there. Doug Burgham will be big Doug representative, Byron Donalds,
Speaker 2: vivike Ramaswami and Corey Mills. So Byron actually one of
Speaker 2: the Byron and Doug Bergham the only two people on
Speaker 2: that list who are prospective VP candidates.
Speaker 3: I wouldn't put too much stock in either of them.
Speaker 4: A lot of Doug Burgham chatter right now.
Speaker 3: That's what they say.
Speaker 2: I firmly believe that I think the best odds are
Speaker 2: a woman. I think Trump e last dephonic. You can
Speaker 2: you know I've been saying it here from I think
Speaker 2: he loves her, he loves how spirited here defense is
Speaker 2: I think she's also not a big enough star that
Speaker 2: she would ever eclipse him, so I would put my
Speaker 2: money on her. I also think that the race card
Speaker 2: is one that Trump just loves a bit too much.
Speaker 2: Tim Scott, you know very clear, Tim has been all
Speaker 2: over cable TV kissing Trump's ass as well. Only if
Speaker 2: Trump feels totally electorally secure, I think will he pick
Speaker 2: somebody like Doug Burgham or jd Vance. But that's one
Speaker 2: where you know, given the nature of the election, it
Speaker 2: would be very difficult. Now it's certainly possible. Like, don't
Speaker 2: get me wrong, but he loved that man. I loves
Speaker 2: identy politics and he loves a media narrative more than anything,
Speaker 2: and a woman or a black person is just one
Speaker 2: that he couldn't get away from.
Speaker 1: I mean, how did he make his pick last time around?
Speaker 1: He did it based on very naked monkey Vellyan political calculation.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he was right, and he was right.
Speaker 1: I mean it was Mike Pence was a good choice
Speaker 1: for him in that moment. It was a very wise
Speaker 1: political choice, and I think he will make a very
Speaker 1: similar choice this time around, because he has a lot
Speaker 1: more to lose this time than he did last time.
Speaker 1: I mean, his freedom is really at stake hinged on
Speaker 1: the results of this election. So whatever he can be
Speaker 1: persuaded of in terms of it's the best electoral calculus
Speaker 1: for him. I think that's the direction he's likely to
Speaker 1: go on based on his history and also what is
Speaker 1: really at stake for him. Last saying just about the
Speaker 1: Cohen testimony, I mentioned this before. CNN actually had this
Speaker 1: audio a number of years ago, but Cohen recorded this
Speaker 1: one conversation with Trump with in regards to these Karen
Speaker 1: McDougall payments. Now this one the structures a little different.
Speaker 1: National Inquirer bought her story to. It was the whole
Speaker 1: catch and kill scenario, and Cohen was worried that David Packer,
Speaker 1: who's head of the National Inquirer, wouldn't believe him that
Speaker 1: Trump was going to reimburse him for these payments that
Speaker 1: he was going to make. So he surreptitiously recorded the
Speaker 1: conversation with Trump to play for David Packer to look,
Speaker 1: he's serious about this, He's going to repay you. I
Speaker 1: don't think he actually ever did, but in any case,
Speaker 1: that was the purpose of the recording. So let's take
Speaker 1: a listen to this audio which was played in court.
Speaker 9: I need to open up a company for the transfer
Speaker 9: of all of that info regarding our friend David, you know,
Speaker 9: so that I'm going to do that right away. I've
Speaker 9: actually come up and spoke to me and I've spoken
Speaker 9: to Alan Weiseelberg about how to set the whole thing
Speaker 9: up with so whatere we were funding. Yes, and it's
Speaker 9: all the stuff, all the stuff because you know, you
Speaker 9: never know where that company, you never know where he's
Speaker 9: going to be, It's correct. So I'm all over that,
Speaker 9: and I spoke to Alan about it. When it comes
Speaker 9: time to the financing, which will be listening, answer you
Speaker 9: will have to pay you, I'll no, no, no, no,
Speaker 9: no no, I got no no.
Speaker 1: So there you go. That's, you know, clearly talking about
Speaker 1: David Backer. He's talking about how we Weiselberg setting up
Speaker 1: these payments, et cetera, et cetera. That's the one piece
Speaker 1: of audio evidence that they have that was able to
Speaker 1: bolster his testimony to the jury.
Speaker 4: And yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 1: Which way this case is going to go. I could
Speaker 1: really see either direction. I think it just depends a
Speaker 1: lot on who this jury is and how they're processing
Speaker 1: these various claims.
Speaker 3: No, I think you're right. It's all going to come
Speaker 3: down to a level of reasonable doubt. I do.
Speaker 2: And this is the problem with the prosecution's case from
Speaker 2: the very beginning. The plausibility of I just didn't want
Speaker 2: my wife to find out is enough and believable that
Speaker 2: you only need a single person who is there not
Speaker 2: only to buy the reasonable doubt, but also not to
Speaker 2: co sign the prosecution's extraordinary interpretation of New York finance
Speaker 2: business accounting law. Remember that's what's actually at stake here.
Speaker 2: So anyways, we will see what's happened. Let's get to
Speaker 2: game Stop. So major breaking news. Roaring Kitty aka Keith Gill,
Speaker 2: the man behind the original meme stop craze on game stock,
Speaker 2: is officially back. Let's go and put this up there
Speaker 2: on the screen. Roaring Kitty Keith gil tweeting for the
Speaker 2: very first time I'm in three years on his account,
Speaker 2: which then immediately sparks a seventy four percent increase in
Speaker 2: a single day on game stop stock. On top of that,
Speaker 2: AMC another so called meme stock is up over one
Speaker 2: hundred percent. They say that game Stop shares actually had
Speaker 2: to be halted several times on the trading exchange because
Speaker 2: of how high it was going, and ever and continues
Speaker 2: actually to do so. Now Gil it appears, has not
Speaker 2: yet done a video on YouTube. We're all awaiting that.
Speaker 2: He recently was portrayed in the movie Dumb Money. Not
Speaker 2: a particularly great movie, but it's if you're on an airplane,
Speaker 2: you should watch it.
Speaker 3: That's the way I would put it.
Speaker 2: Dumb Money recently came out and kind of showed him
Speaker 2: as this endearing nerd, you know, in his basement who
Speaker 2: turned you know, what was it like, fifty thousand dollars
Speaker 2: into forty eight million dollars on paper. Eventually sells, gets out,
Speaker 2: subject of lawsuits, of congressional testimony. Most people thought they
Speaker 2: would never see him again, but for some reason he
Speaker 2: is officially back and back enough that it's always just
Speaker 2: amusing watching CNBC and all these business anchors actually grapple
Speaker 2: with this. So here's how they handle the news of
Speaker 2: the return of Rooring Kitty.
Speaker 5: Yeah, so this is Keith Gill's first online post we've
Speaker 5: seen in three years. Roaring Kitty, as he's also known,
Speaker 5: was if you remember really the pied Piper of the
Speaker 5: Memestock frenzy. In twenty twenty one, he led those online
Speaker 5: traders to the infamous Game Stop short squeeze this morning,
Speaker 5: posting kind of cryptic photo of somebody just leaning forward,
Speaker 5: excuse me, in a chair, and that was enough to
Speaker 5: send game Stop up. As you said, more than one
Speaker 5: hundred percent. It has been halted for volagility. A Robert
Speaker 5: Hu'm just sent out a note explaining this trading activity
Speaker 5: for GM has been only ten minutes. The rest of
Speaker 5: the day has been halted, and even with just ten
Speaker 5: minutes of trading, the stock did three and a half
Speaker 5: times the normal volume. But it's not just GM me guys.
Speaker 5: Other so called memestocks like AMC are also catching a bit.
Speaker 5: It is one sign of overall appetite increasing. You'll also
Speaker 5: see that showing up in the options market, especially for
Speaker 5: the most volatile corner of that ultra short maturities, once
Speaker 5: really reserved for professional traders zero days to expire options
Speaker 5: have climbed in popularity among every day investors. These are
Speaker 5: one day bets on the direction of the market, which
Speaker 5: can offer outsize returns rewards and also outsize risk.
Speaker 2: So you just got to love to see the translation
Speaker 2: of risk appetite. There ain't no risk appetite. Okay, everyone's
Speaker 2: just logging back into their robin Hood accounts and they're
Speaker 2: having fun, which was the entire point of the game
Speaker 2: stop craze. But I mean, look, I guess it just
Speaker 2: does show the power is still there, Crystal, if you
Speaker 2: want it to be.
Speaker 3: For the Internet.
Speaker 2: It was such a fun story at the time, the
Speaker 2: short squeeze getting the big investors getting screwed inspired the
Speaker 2: movie made Ken Griffin became a household name. There is
Speaker 2: still some h really shady stuff that went on with
Speaker 2: robin Hood.
Speaker 4: All of that.
Speaker 3: I think it was very.
Speaker 2: Illuminating episode for everyone because you're like, oh man, the
Speaker 2: system really is rigged.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, those are the pieces of it that made the
Speaker 1: story so compelling and so like illustrative of the realities
Speaker 1: of our economy. So first of all, let's just reflect
Speaker 1: on the power of this one random dude who can
Speaker 1: post a meme and move markets to this extent, Like
Speaker 1: that's incredible, and especially because listen, we're used to like
Speaker 1: you know, the Fed or like Titans of Wall Street
Speaker 1: being able to do this, our Elon Musk, you know,
Speaker 1: a billionaire being able to do the same but here
Speaker 1: you have this guy who just through the force of
Speaker 1: his like persistence, basically was able to persuade people like,
Speaker 1: we're doing this, You're coming along, screw what they say,
Speaker 1: We're all in, We're going to make this happen.
Speaker 4: We're going to screw the shorts.
Speaker 1: And you know, through just basically like his force and
Speaker 1: persistence being able to move markets in this way. And
Speaker 1: there's a few things that I always found really interesting
Speaker 1: about the story. First of all, it really revealed something
Speaker 1: that I think a lot of people intuitively know, which
Speaker 1: is how fake the stock market is to begin with.
Speaker 1: So the fact that you could have this on line
Speaker 1: movement and really you know, take it to big Wall
Speaker 1: Street players in a significant way, that was interesting and,
Speaker 1: as I said.
Speaker 4: Sort of revealed how fake a lot of.
Speaker 1: This Wall Street shenanigans really are in stock market prices,
Speaker 1: et cetera. But then you also had the other side
Speaker 1: of it, which was listen, right when they're on the
Speaker 1: verge of a real victory, the collusion that occurred, and
Speaker 1: the you know, top down crushing of this movement, and
Speaker 1: you know, they they made it so that on the
Speaker 1: robin Hood platform you can no longer buy the stock,
Speaker 1: you could only sell the stock, and that effectively, at
Speaker 1: least for the time, really, you know, crushed the movement
Speaker 1: and ended it. So it was this Dave and Goliath story.
Speaker 1: David looked like he had the upper hand and then
Speaker 1: Goliath comes in and then you know, we'reing. Kitty himself
Speaker 1: as you were poorting to soccer, became the subject of all.
Speaker 1: I mean, he was really aggressively. They dragged him in
Speaker 1: front of Congress and lost. I mean, they went after
Speaker 1: him like crazy. You would think he was the you know,
Speaker 1: a villain of the central et cetera for his promotion
Speaker 1: of the game stop stocks. So interesting to see he's
Speaker 1: still got it apparently.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean, his employer, mass Mutual was actually fine, like
Speaker 2: four million dollars because he was working for them and
Speaker 2: doing this stuff. On this side, he was a shit poster.
Speaker 2: It's not even really fair, to be honest. I mean,
Speaker 2: let's be real, like it's an amazing feat. He leveraged
Speaker 2: his Internet personality. His YouTube videos and Reddit posts turned
Speaker 2: fifty thousand dollars into some fifties. Nobody really knows how
Speaker 2: much of a profit, but tens of millions and millions
Speaker 2: of millions of dollars for him and for his family.
Speaker 3: I mean, that's that's the American dream.
Speaker 2: To me, somebody like that, that's the best of online influencer.
Speaker 2: And he did it specifically by going after and beating
Speaker 2: these hedge fund managers, who, as the movie accurately portrays,
Speaker 2: are just the most like just the most the worst
Speaker 2: people in the US. They create nothing, they do nothing,
Speaker 2: made tens of billions of dollars betting and defeating and
Speaker 2: trying to destroy companies. I mean, Ken griff entire innovation
Speaker 2: is high frequency trading and basically getting an edge by
Speaker 2: trading something three microseconds ahead of somebody else. Sorry, I
Speaker 2: don't think you're adding all that much, you know, to
Speaker 2: a value to the United States. But this man is
Speaker 2: worth what thirty forty billion dollars, one of the richest
Speaker 2: men in the United States. That's exactly why Gil became
Speaker 2: such a popular figure in his own right. And every
Speaker 2: time something like this happens, it does show you Again,
Speaker 2: let's get to the communitarian aspect of what happened back
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one is where we just come out
Speaker 2: of COVID. I'm sure you remember this too, Crystal. This
Speaker 2: was right after January sixth, so things were tense. I
Speaker 2: remember covering this and just being like, man, this is
Speaker 2: the first fun story I've covered in years. It was
Speaker 2: just it was great to just get wrapped up on it.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 2: Not great for a lot of people out there. And
Speaker 2: let's be honest, you did lose a lot of money,
Speaker 2: but you know you're an adult. You know you should
Speaker 2: at least know what you're doing. And by Keith's own admission,
Speaker 2: you never told anybody to buy the stock per se.
Speaker 2: Let's put this up there on the screen just to reiterate,
Speaker 2: this is literally the meme that made it all happen.
Speaker 2: Appears to show a guy who is gaming leaning forward.
Speaker 2: He has since tweeted out like twenty five different of
Speaker 2: his signature memes, which are like clips from movies and
Speaker 2: other things inspirational. Wolverine coming out of the tank and
Speaker 2: killing somebody, So maybe he's back. I would really love
Speaker 2: to see him actually do a YouTube video. We have
Speaker 2: one of those, we can put here on this green.
Speaker 2: So here you've got Wolverine in the tank coming out,
Speaker 2: you're seeing the god.
Speaker 3: What is the metal?
Speaker 4: The metal? I don't remember either.
Speaker 3: Totally blanking on the name right now, Griffin.
Speaker 4: You want to tell about the Wolverine origin story basically,
Speaker 4: right or is that?
Speaker 3: I think that one's from Logan.
Speaker 4: No, I don't think so.
Speaker 1: I think that was an accident because I never watched
Speaker 1: Logan and I definitely have seen that.
Speaker 4: Got it.
Speaker 3: Uh, Okay, that was X two.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that makes sense, that makes sense. I actually loved
Speaker 4: those movies.
Speaker 2: The X Men movies were gat yeah, big mag Anyways,
Speaker 2: I think they're coming back actually, or there's some fusion
Speaker 2: of the universe with Deadpool. That's X Men origins Wolverine.
Speaker 2: That's according to our junior guy in the control room thing.
Speaker 8: There we go.
Speaker 3: We appreciate you, Ian.
Speaker 2: So it's one of those where the memes are back,
Speaker 2: the stocks are back.
Speaker 3: This will be a fun story.
Speaker 2: Hopefully, maybe this time around they can crush somebody else
Speaker 2: Wall Street Person's dreams.
Speaker 3: But we'll see.
Speaker 2: And we want to give everybody an update and get
Speaker 2: some of the fun stuff into the show as well.