1 00:00:00,480 --> 00:00:03,400 Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Robert Evans here, and you know this is 2 00:00:03,440 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: you're hearing this because this is running during the week 3 00:00:06,440 --> 00:00:10,200 Speaker 1: that everyone in Gooul Zone media takes off. And here's 4 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: the thing. We don't technically have to work during a 5 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:15,240 Speaker 1: week for you to get new episodes of stuff. But 6 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,319 Speaker 1: if we just take a week off and then we 7 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,239 Speaker 1: put out new episodes that week, we have to catch 8 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: up at some point, right, like we like, at some 9 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: point those episodes and extra episodes have to continue being made. 10 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 1: So we're just actually taking this week off. We're not 11 00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:33,479 Speaker 1: going to do anything. We've done this before. This is 12 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: not a new thing for us. There'll be so no 13 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 1: new episode of Bastards or hood Politics or could happen 14 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: here this week. Well, we will be doing as We've 15 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 1: asked everyone on the team to pick their old episodes 16 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:46,640 Speaker 1: of the show that they like and wanted to rehighlight 17 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 1: to people. So we will be dropping, you know, old 18 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 1: episodes with kind of you know, this little bit of 19 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 1: commentary at the start this week. If you think everything's 20 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 1: a rerun, that's because it is. We're in reruns this week, folks. 21 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 1: You remember those If you're not not like an old 22 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 1: piece of shit like me. Maybe you don't remember the 23 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 1: world in which you know reruns. We're a thing, It's 24 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 1: the thing they used to do on TV because of 25 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 1: the same basic reasons. People needing, needing a break, but 26 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:16,959 Speaker 1: something something needing to go out to fill the gaping 27 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:20,560 Speaker 1: maw of content that is the Internet. It's eternal hunger, 28 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:24,600 Speaker 1: the great devour that is that is our collective consciousness 29 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:27,919 Speaker 1: as a species. So anyway, here's an episode I wrote 30 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:31,320 Speaker 1: last year about the tech industry and why it is 31 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: fundamentally a failure despite what would seem to be numerous accomplishments. 32 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 1: So check that out and then, I don't know, maybe 33 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 1: go watch the show Halt and Catch Fire. That'll be 34 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:50,560 Speaker 1: that'll be a good time for you. Here it is. Hey, everybody, 35 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: Robert Evans here and welcome to It could happen here. 36 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 1: You know. When we started the show, when I did 37 00:01:56,800 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 1: the first season of it, you know, the one about 38 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:02,560 Speaker 1: all the civil wars back in twenty nineteen, this was 39 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 1: basically a place for me to write long essays explaining 40 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:08,959 Speaker 1: my vision of the future and the present, and people 41 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:11,160 Speaker 1: seem to like that a lot. We did a little 42 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 1: bit of that at the start of this new Eternal 43 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 1: daily season of the show, but obviously over the last 44 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 1: year or so, it's morphed into something very different and 45 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 1: something wonderful and successful, and that's brought a lot of 46 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 1: new voices, or at least voices people maybe hadn't heard 47 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 1: from as much out in front of the audience, and 48 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 1: I've been really happy about that. But what I also 49 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 1: haven't been doing is writing any more essays about the 50 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 1: world and how fucked up shit is, because you know, 51 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 1: I've been managing a bunch of stuff and there's been 52 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 1: a lot of work to do. But I like doing 53 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:49,760 Speaker 1: that stuff, and I think you people like it, So 54 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 1: I'm going to try to do more of that. And 55 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:54,920 Speaker 1: I wanted to kind of start by talking a little 56 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 1: bit about Silicon Valley, and I'm going to say something 57 00:02:58,400 --> 00:02:59,920 Speaker 1: at the start of this essay that a lot of 58 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 1: people are probably instinctively going to want to disagree with, 59 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 1: which is that Silicon Valley and the tech industry have 60 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 1: been gigantic failures by every metric that matters. They have 61 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 1: made life comprehensively worse for humanity, and there is no 62 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 1: real fact based counter argument to that statement. This is 63 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 1: a hard pill for people to swallow. I'm sure, a 64 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:21,919 Speaker 1: lot of folks are frustrated in me for saying it 65 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:25,360 Speaker 1: right now and are thinking of counter arguments. Most people 66 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:28,640 Speaker 1: today are critical of the tech industry, obviously, particularly major 67 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 1: social media companies, but they still tend to acknowledge the 68 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 1: tremendous wealth created by Silicon Valley, as if there's some 69 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: sort of inherent value to that behind a number on 70 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 1: a spreadsheet. Collectively, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, and Google, the 71 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 1: so called Big Five had a seven point five trillion 72 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 1: dollar market cap in twenty twenty. Every person listening to 73 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 1: this keeps a device in their pocket made by or 74 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 1: using the software of one or more of these companies, 75 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 1: And so when people want to make the counter argument 76 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 1: to what I just said, they'll tend to point out 77 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: some version of this. Yeah, companies like Facebook have done 78 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 1: bad things, but the Internet still a tool for good. 79 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: It connects people, YadA, YadA YadA. Smartphones empower us. You know, 80 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 1: there's all these positive things about the internet, to which 81 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 1: I will say, present me with your fucking evidence that 82 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 1: that has mattered for people really in terms that actually 83 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:21,599 Speaker 1: inaggregate improve their lives. I will show you my arguments 84 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 1: to the contrary. In the period of time from Harry 85 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 1: Truman's election to the end of the Nixon administration, American 86 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 1: productivity on a per capita basis increased at a faster 87 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 1: rate than it did at any other point in history. 88 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 1: But then something happened. From nineteen seventy three to twenty thirteen, 89 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 1: income growth was eighty percent slower than it had been 90 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 1: in the previous three decades. If productivity had continued to 91 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 1: grow at the same rate from nineteen seventy three to 92 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,600 Speaker 1: twenty thirteen as it did from nineteen forty six to 93 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 1: nineteen seventy three, the economy in twenty thirteen would have 94 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:57,160 Speaker 1: been sixty percent larger than it actually was. Now. I'm 95 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 1: gonna guess a decent number of the people listening to 96 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 1: this grew up watching The Jetsons. I know I did, 97 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 1: and for the most part it was a silly, pretty 98 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 1: harmless animated show. But at the center of it was 99 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 1: a dream about the future that seems unfathomable in light 100 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 1: of current events. George Jetson, who is in the show 101 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:15,960 Speaker 1: a pretty normal working class guy, worked three hours a 102 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:17,919 Speaker 1: day for three days a week. One of the running 103 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:20,839 Speaker 1: jokes in the show is that he considered himself overworked 104 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 1: despite this pretty idyllic schedule. Now, this was never particularly 105 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 1: a focus of the show. It was just kind of 106 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:30,279 Speaker 1: something that was mentioned from time to time. And that's 107 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 1: because the idea that a workweek might just be nine 108 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:36,039 Speaker 1: hours in the future wasn't a joke. This was the 109 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 1: direction futurists in the nineteen sixties, looking at that surge 110 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 1: in productivity I just mentioned, and all of the middle 111 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 1: class wealth that had been created from the forties through 112 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:46,920 Speaker 1: the early sixties, this is the direction they saw as 113 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 1: heading in Around a decade ago, in a period that 114 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:53,920 Speaker 1: was still significantly more optimistic than our current age. The Atlantics, 115 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 1: Alexis Madrigal went on a reading spree of some early 116 00:05:56,600 --> 00:06:01,839 Speaker 1: twentieth century futurist novels. His conclusion was this quote. Technological 117 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 1: optimists sold the world on automation by telling people it 118 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:08,159 Speaker 1: would create unimaginable amounts of leisure for them. The big 119 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:10,480 Speaker 1: question for the workers of the twenty first century would 120 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:14,359 Speaker 1: be how to spend their copious amounts of free time. Now, 121 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:17,279 Speaker 1: the future we've actually gotten has given us the opposite 122 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 1: of this stream to try and cover up the rank 123 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:22,919 Speaker 1: and rampant ways modern technology has failed humanity. Think tanks 124 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:26,280 Speaker 1: funded by venture capitalists and tech gurus produce an endless 125 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: stream of identical futurist thinker types who write columns about 126 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 1: how the world is actually better today than it's ever been. 127 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 1: A good example of this would be this June twenty 128 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:39,719 Speaker 1: twenty Forbes column by Rob Asgar titled the World's getting better. 129 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 1: Here's why your brain can't believe it. It opens with 130 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:45,840 Speaker 1: this paragraph, Life has improved for most people around the 131 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 1: world over the past generation temporary pandemics aside. The rub 132 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:51,719 Speaker 1: is that you can't get anyone to believe the good news, 133 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 1: and the result is a toxic political environment and the 134 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 1: potential collapse of timocratic norms if too few people feel 135 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:00,840 Speaker 1: that a stressed system is worth saving. Now, I might 136 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:03,719 Speaker 1: point out, for example, that if people don't actually feel 137 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 1: like the system's good, perhaps it's not really working well. 138 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 1: There's a number of counter arguments you can make to this. Now. 139 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 1: Two years later, this again was written in June of 140 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 1: twenty twenty, we've got a massive war in Europe. People 141 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 1: are worried about nuclear warfare. As a result of that, Again, 142 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 1: we've got a degradation of democracy worldwide that's continued to 143 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 1: pace from where it was in twenty twenty. We've got 144 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 1: soaring inequality, we've got inflation the likes of which a 145 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 1: lot of people alive have never seen, myself included prior 146 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 1: to this point, and we still have a pandemic. So 147 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:37,560 Speaker 1: it's clear that Rob is at least not as smart 148 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 1: as he thinks he is, which is what I would 149 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 1: say about everyone who makes versions of the same claim 150 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: that he was making. Now, this doesn't mean I'm saying 151 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: that life is worse now than it was at some 152 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 1: imagined prelapsarian version of the past. I actually think that's 153 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 1: kind of a useless way to think about the past 154 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: and the future. There's different things people would have preferred. 155 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 1: There's things that are objectively better, there's things that are 156 00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 1: objectively and debatably worse. You know that it's hard to 157 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 1: make those kind of claims about history, especially when they 158 00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 1: often rely on saying, well, x amount more people have 159 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 1: been pulled out of poverty, and the question to that is, well, 160 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 1: I don't know. Before colonization of Africa, would you say 161 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 1: all of those people in what became the colonized parts 162 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 1: of Africa were in poverty or were they simply not 163 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 1: part of a system that measures poverty and anyway whatever. 164 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 1: We can go on and on about that. My point 165 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 1: is that the metrics these people use to claim the 166 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 1: success of our current system to talk about how wonderful 167 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 1: things are today are constantly shifting, and they're widely arbitrary. 168 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 1: The same year Rob wrote his stupid column, a NRC 169 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 1: study showed that Americans self reported being happy at the 170 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:44,160 Speaker 1: lowest levels in fifty years. You can quote juke statistics 171 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 1: about wealthare access to luxury goods all you want. But 172 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 1: the modern world, in the post two thousand and eight 173 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 1: financial crash economy, all of which was built in the 174 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 1: shade of the tech industry, is making people miserable now. 175 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 1: Happiness is obviously not a perfect measure of progress either. 176 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 1: Self reporting always dicey, but things like the consumer price 177 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:05,320 Speaker 1: index and per capita income, which are often used by 178 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 1: folks on the optimist side, are also juked and jiggered 179 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 1: to hell and back. So to provide a bit more 180 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:12,679 Speaker 1: of an international scale, I'm going to quote from the 181 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 1: Berkeley University's Greater Good magazine quote release annually on the 182 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,560 Speaker 1: International Day of Happiness. The World Happiness Report ranks countries 183 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:23,080 Speaker 1: based on their life satisfaction. In the Gallop World Poll, 184 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:25,719 Speaker 1: residents rate how satisfied they are with their lives in 185 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 1: a scale of zero to ten, from the worst possible 186 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 1: life to the best possible life. This year's report also 187 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 1: analyzes how global happiness has changed over time, based on 188 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:36,320 Speaker 1: data stretching back to two thousand and five. One trend 189 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:40,080 Speaker 1: is very clear. Negative feelings, worries, sadness, and anger have 190 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:42,720 Speaker 1: been rising around the world, up by twenty seven percent 191 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: from twenty ten to twenty eighteen. The authors also found 192 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:49,680 Speaker 1: troubling trends and happiness in equality, which is the psychological 193 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 1: parallel to income inequality, how much individuals in society differ 194 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 1: in how satisfied they are with life. Since two thousand 195 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 1: and seven, happiness inequality has been rising within countries, meaning 196 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 1: that the gap between the unhappy and the happy has 197 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:05,319 Speaker 1: been getting wider. This trend is particularly strong in Latin America, 198 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:10,200 Speaker 1: Asia and Sub Saharan Africa. And this is kind of 199 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 1: getting it. I think, what is an incredibly important point, 200 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 1: for one thing, if you want to look at how 201 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 1: people have self reported their unhappiness rising, This massive recent 202 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 1: surge and unhappiness occurs almost at exactly the period of 203 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 1: time that the smartphone takes off and becomes ubiquitous. And 204 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 1: the smartphone is such a bafflingly useful device, I would 205 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:30,360 Speaker 1: never want to give mine up as a thing that 206 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:33,359 Speaker 1: I had access to. And the Internet is an incredibly 207 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 1: powerful tool. I wouldn't want to give the Internet up either. 208 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 1: But the usefulness and the undoubtable brilliance behind these products 209 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:44,839 Speaker 1: makes it seem inconceivable to argue that they haven't made 210 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,199 Speaker 1: us better at accomplishing the things that matter to us. 211 00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:50,480 Speaker 1: But the evidence on this is pretty clear. I want 212 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 1: to quote now from a write up in The Atlantic. 213 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 1: No matter how aggressively you torture the numbers, the computer 214 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 1: age has coincided with a decline in the rate of 215 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 1: economic growth. When Chad Siverson, an economist at the University 216 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 1: of Chicago's Business School, looked at the question of missing growth, 217 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 1: he found that the productivity slowdown has reduced GDP by 218 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:12,640 Speaker 1: two point seven trillion dollars since two thousand four. Americans 219 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 1: may love their smartphones, but all those free apps aren't 220 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 1: worth trillions of dollars. The physical world of the city, 221 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 1: the glow of electric powered lights, the rumble of automobiles, 222 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 1: the roar of airplanes overhead on subways below is a 223 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 1: product of late nineteenth century and early twentieth century invention. 224 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:31,640 Speaker 1: The physical environment feels depressingly finished. The bulk of innovation 225 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 1: has been shunted into the invisible realm of bytes and code. 226 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 1: All of that code, technology advocates argue, has increased human 227 00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 1: ingenuity by allowing individuals to tinker, talk, and trade with 228 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 1: unprecedented ease. This certainly feels true. Who could dispute the 229 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:47,720 Speaker 1: fact that it's easier than ever to record music, market 230 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 1: a video game, or publish an essay. But by most measures, 231 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:54,959 Speaker 1: individual innovation is in decline. In twenty fifteen, Americans were 232 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:56,959 Speaker 1: far less likely to start a company than they were 233 00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 1: in the nineteen eighties. According to the economist Tyler Coha, 234 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 1: the spread of broadband technology has corresponded with a drop 235 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 1: off and entrepreneurial activity in almost every city and in 236 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:18,680 Speaker 1: almost every industry. Now you might think from all this 237 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 1: that I'm mount ahead into some sort of technodoomer, anti 238 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 1: siev primitivist rant. Here I'm not. Perhaps I should, but 239 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 1: I'm not. I am a person who loves technology. I 240 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 1: got my start as a journalist as a tech journalist. 241 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:34,120 Speaker 1: I've joyously traveled the world for years visiting conventions looking 242 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:35,720 Speaker 1: at new gadgets, and a lot of this was in 243 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:39,160 Speaker 1: that pretty wondrous period if you're a gadget nerd from 244 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:41,439 Speaker 1: two thousand and eight to twenty eleven, where there were 245 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:45,200 Speaker 1: there's these amazing, new, weird sci fi gadgets dropping every 246 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:47,800 Speaker 1: single week, stuff that you'd grown up watching in like 247 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:50,559 Speaker 1: Star Trek the next generation suddenly getting mailed to your 248 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 1: door for you to test out. I tested hundreds of 249 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:55,959 Speaker 1: tablets and smart gadgets in that timeframe, and there's some 250 00:12:56,040 --> 00:12:58,959 Speaker 1: really great products that came out from that period. Bluetooth 251 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:01,679 Speaker 1: speakers are wonderful. Lot of people, including me, use them 252 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 1: happily on a daily basis. But when it comes to 253 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:08,320 Speaker 1: legitimately life changing applications of technology that's come to us 254 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:11,200 Speaker 1: in the last fifteen years or so, I can really 255 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 1: only think of three things. Number one is the ability 256 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:17,680 Speaker 1: to navigate by GPS basically everywhere. Number two is the 257 00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 1: ability to be in constant contact with people around the world. 258 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:23,320 Speaker 1: And number three is the ability to store a shitload 259 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 1: of media on a portable device. So I'm not anti technology, 260 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:29,600 Speaker 1: nor am I saying that big tech doesn't make things 261 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:31,880 Speaker 1: that are cool or useful. Nor am I saying we 262 00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 1: should get rid of this stuff. The point I'm making 263 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 1: is that viewed at thirty thousand feet, the tech industry 264 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 1: has produced very little of quantifiable value to the human race, 265 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 1: and it has caused unfathomable harm at the same time. Now, 266 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,400 Speaker 1: in my opinion, this has nothing, or at least fairly 267 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 1: little to do with how the technology inherently works, and 268 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 1: instead has everything to do with the ideology behind the 269 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:58,880 Speaker 1: people who developed and who continue to marshal that technology. 270 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:01,839 Speaker 1: In nineteen ninety five, two of the smartest guys in 271 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 1: the twentieth century by my estimation, Richard Barbrook and Andy Cameron, 272 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 1: wrote an essay about the ideology that animated the men 273 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 1: who had come to dominate the twenty first century tech industry. 274 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:16,120 Speaker 1: They titled their essay the Californian Ideology, and I think 275 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 1: it still counts as one of the three or four 276 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 1: most incisive accurate essays of that century. The gist of 277 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 1: the idea was that as the first wave of the 278 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:26,520 Speaker 1: digital boom started to hit in the mid nineteen nineties, 279 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 1: the thinkers behind it were fueled by a mix of 280 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 1: left wing by a mix of left wing egalitarian, often 281 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: anti statist beliefs that got wetted to right wing free 282 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 1: market fundamentalist libertarian ideology and created this deeply toxic way 283 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 1: of thinking about the future. You can see this in 284 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 1: the story of guys like Steve Wozniak, the inventor of 285 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:50,720 Speaker 1: the personal computer, who was also a former phone freaker. 286 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 1: He committed federal crimes as a kid, hacking the phone 287 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 1: system primarily because fuck the man. But then when he's 288 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 1: a young man, the Waws hooks up with a guy 289 00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 1: named Steve Job, and Jobs is a brilliant but heartless 290 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 1: con man who cares about nothing but market dominance. Jobs 291 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 1: recognizes the naive brilliance of Steve Wosniak, and he turns 292 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 1: it into an engine for wealth creation. At one point, 293 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 1: he steals money that Wosniak was owed for a project 294 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 1: that they took on together, money Wosniak probably would have 295 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 1: just given him if he'd asked, and he used it 296 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 1: secretly to fund their business, which became Apple. In their essay, 297 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:25,440 Speaker 1: Cameron and Barbara, who are much better writers than I, 298 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 1: described the Californian ideology this way. The Californian ideology is 299 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: a mix of cybernetics, free market economics, and counterculture libertarianism, 300 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:37,120 Speaker 1: and is promulgated by magazines such as Wired and Mondo 301 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 1: two thousand and preached in the books of Stuart Brand, 302 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 1: Kevin Kelly, and others. The new faith has been embraced 303 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:46,479 Speaker 1: by computer nerds, slacker students, thirty sethter capitalists, hip academics, 304 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 1: futurist bureaucrats, and even by the President of the USA himself. Now, 305 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 1: the tech industry as we know it got its start 306 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:57,960 Speaker 1: courtesy of government money. Everyone knows that the first version 307 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:00,000 Speaker 1: of the Internet was developed as part of a Defense 308 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 1: Department project, But the entire computer industry, all of the 309 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 1: coders and engineers who would form the first generation of 310 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 1: Sillincon Valley profit engines, all these guys got their start 311 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:13,120 Speaker 1: working for or as defense contractors. When the US pulled 312 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 1: out of Vietnam, thousands of these people were left out 313 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 1: of jobs and they were forced to move into the 314 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 1: private sector. Everything worthwhile that's come out of big tech 315 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 1: has involved a titanic amount of public funding one way 316 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 1: or the other. I'm going to quote from that essay again. 317 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 1: Almost every major technological advance of the last two hundred 318 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 1: years has taken place with the aid of large amounts 319 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 1: of public money and under a good deal of government influence. 320 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,320 Speaker 1: The technologies of the computer in the net were invented 321 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 1: with the aid of massive state subsidies. For example, the 322 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 1: first difference Engine project received a British government grant of 323 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 1: five hundred and seventeen four hundred and seventy pounds a 324 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: small fortune in eighteen thirty four. From Colossus to ed VAC, 325 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 1: from flight simulators to virtual reality, the development of computing 326 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 1: has depended at key moments on public research handouts or 327 00:16:56,320 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 1: fat contracts with public agencies. The IBM Corporation the first 328 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 1: programmable digital computer only after it was requested to do 329 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,400 Speaker 1: so by the US Defense Department during the Korean War. 330 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 1: The result of a lack of state intervention meant that 331 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:12,200 Speaker 1: Nazi Germany lost the opportunity to build the first electronic 332 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:14,800 Speaker 1: computer in the late thirties, when the Wehrmacht refused to 333 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 1: fund Conrad Zus, who had pioneered the use of binary code, 334 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:22,160 Speaker 1: stored programs, and electronic logic gates. One of the weirdest 335 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 1: things about the Californian ideology is that the West Coast 336 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:28,639 Speaker 1: itself was a product of massive state intervention. Government dollars 337 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 1: were used to build the irrigation systems, highways, schools, universities, 338 00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:35,200 Speaker 1: and other infrastructural projects which make the good life possible. 339 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 1: On top of these public subsidies, the West Coast high 340 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 1: tech industrial complex has been feasting off the fattest pork 341 00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 1: barrel in history. For decades, the US government has poured 342 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 1: billions of tax dollars into buying planes, missiles, electronics, and 343 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:50,919 Speaker 1: nuclear bombs from Californian companies. Americans have always had state planning, 344 00:17:51,000 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 1: but they prefer to call it the defense budget. Now 345 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 1: this state of affairs is more or less unchanged today. 346 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 1: Elon Musk is probably the most celebrated modern tech visionary. 347 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 1: Miss Sundry companies have taken nearly five billion dollars in 348 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:19,160 Speaker 1: public funding, subsidies, and government support since twenty fifteen. All 349 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:22,959 Speaker 1: of these libertarian visionaries who push in their political lives 350 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 1: for a world of Los afaire economics and corporate sovereignty, 351 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 1: only produce value with the help of tax payer dollars. Period. 352 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 1: The irrational exuberance of public financing and the narcissism to 353 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,440 Speaker 1: ignore its role in innovation has given us a generation 354 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 1: of tech industry overlords who seem bound and determined to 355 00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 1: destroy their own creations. Steve Jobs represented the most successful, 356 00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:49,120 Speaker 1: and probably the most intelligent manifestation of the Californian ideology. 357 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 1: Every tech industry ghoul currently boiling away fortunes for the 358 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 1: sake of their ego. I'm thinking of Zuckerberg and Musk 359 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:59,480 Speaker 1: most prominently right now is trying to be him. Steve's 360 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 1: skill was being able to perfectly inhabit the form of 361 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:04,720 Speaker 1: a visionary, and he was so good at doing this 362 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 1: that he convinced this generation they could follow in his footsteps. 363 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:12,080 Speaker 1: But Steve Jobs was only ever playing at being a creator, 364 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,600 Speaker 1: at being an inventor. His skill was not in making things. 365 00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:18,639 Speaker 1: He had other people to do the making. Steve was 366 00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:22,360 Speaker 1: an exceptional confidence man, and like all good confidence men, 367 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:25,600 Speaker 1: he was able to make money because he understood on 368 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:29,879 Speaker 1: a deep level what other human beings wanted. This skill 369 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:32,760 Speaker 1: allowed him to lock Apple into spending hundreds of millions 370 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 1: of dollars on R and D for what would become 371 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 1: the first proper smartphone, and for a while he was 372 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:40,159 Speaker 1: just having them toss that money into an apparent chasm 373 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 1: repeatedly turning back iterations of the product that weren't quite 374 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:45,679 Speaker 1: right on the strength of his belief that when they 375 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,639 Speaker 1: got it right, it would be worth it. In the 376 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 1: years sense, we've seen many wanna be Steve's try to 377 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 1: follow in his footsteps, igniting tens of billions of dollars 378 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:57,160 Speaker 1: of venture capital for absolutely nothing. One of the best 379 00:19:57,160 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 1: examples would be Uber. They lost eight point five billion 380 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:03,159 Speaker 1: dollars in twenty nineteen six point eight billion dollars in 381 00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:06,639 Speaker 1: twenty twenty. Once upon a time, the understanding the jobs 382 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:08,920 Speaker 1: and vision of what Uber could be was that all 383 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:12,480 Speaker 1: of this ignited VC cash would be worthwhile because eventually 384 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:16,280 Speaker 1: the company would succeed in replacing human drivers with autonomous cars, 385 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:21,640 Speaker 1: cutting out the primary cost in the entire professional driving industry, 386 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:25,399 Speaker 1: and making the potential for a shitload of profit. But 387 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,359 Speaker 1: after investing more than a billion dollars in self driving cars, 388 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:32,160 Speaker 1: Uber sold their entire autonomous vehicle division off at a loss. 389 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:35,439 Speaker 1: All of that expense had resulted in self driving cars 390 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 1: that averaged one half mile traveled per accident. Despite this, 391 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:43,040 Speaker 1: after a two point six billion dollar loss in August 392 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:47,280 Speaker 1: of twenty twenty two, Uber stocks swared now, the realities 393 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 1: of what generates profit and loss in the tech industry 394 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:53,360 Speaker 1: have been completely divorced from productive reality or value created 395 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 1: for quite some time. The delamination of real value in 396 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 1: big tech happens subtly. It's not howard to see ey Apple, 397 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,159 Speaker 1: who created a device every human being wanted to have 398 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 1: in their pocket, became worth a shitload more money, right, 399 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:09,960 Speaker 1: pretty obvious. The value case for Google's core business search 400 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:13,119 Speaker 1: is also pretty obvious. And as much as I hate Facebook, 401 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:16,680 Speaker 1: it became initially successful because it provided people with something 402 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 1: of real value, a way to stay in touch with 403 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 1: human beings they had met over the course of their lives. 404 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,080 Speaker 1: Younger folks may find this odd because they've grown up 405 00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:27,040 Speaker 1: with the Internet, but as a kid, I can remember 406 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 1: very vividly my parents talking about the friends they'd had 407 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 1: in high school and in college, and how a lifetime 408 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,360 Speaker 1: of moving regularly had severed many of the connections they'd 409 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:38,439 Speaker 1: valued with these people. When I joined Facebook and my 410 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 1: freshman year of college, I found real value and the 411 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 1: ability to maintain and sometimes even build stronger connections with 412 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 1: people I would otherwise have lost touch with Entirely. There 413 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 1: is the core of something good or something at least 414 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:55,200 Speaker 1: valued inherently by people in Facebook, and that's true with most, 415 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,359 Speaker 1: if not all, of the Big five companies. When people 416 00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,240 Speaker 1: reflexively leaped to defend the ten industry is an engine 417 00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 1: of innovation. They can point to these successes, But the 418 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,800 Speaker 1: point that I'm making isn't that no good ideas come 419 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 1: out of Silicon Valley, or that there isn't anything valuable 420 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:12,960 Speaker 1: that is involved in what these companies do. It's that 421 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 1: the endless quest for profit and the narcissism of this 422 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 1: Californian ideology lead inevitably to the destruction of whatever value 423 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,880 Speaker 1: the industry creates. This is why none of these innovations 424 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 1: have actually led to surges in productivity, why none of 425 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,120 Speaker 1: them have made us any happier, which I think might 426 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 1: be more important. Any potential these creations had was smothered 427 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 1: by the ideology that drives Silicon Valley money. Facebook took 428 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,480 Speaker 1: the connections that they'd made with people and used them 429 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 1: to feed those same people rage bait. They destroyed the 430 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:47,920 Speaker 1: open Internet, shuttered countless local news sites, put tons of 431 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 1: people out of business, while algorithmically pushing millions of folks 432 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,640 Speaker 1: around the world towards whatever kept them angriest and most 433 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 1: online Google spent billions on an endless stream of spinoff 434 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,840 Speaker 1: products like Google Plus and Google Glass, which were nearly 435 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:06,399 Speaker 1: all catastrophic failures, at least on a financial sense, and 436 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,680 Speaker 1: all the while they gradually turned the search results they'd 437 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:13,560 Speaker 1: prided themselves on into a sponsored ad feed. Google is 438 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:15,680 Speaker 1: less useful now than it was a couple of years ago. 439 00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:17,920 Speaker 1: You'll notice this immediately if you just get on there 440 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,040 Speaker 1: and start asking it questions. Elon Musk has taken the 441 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:25,240 Speaker 1: visionary technology that underpins the Tesla, all created by other people, 442 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,200 Speaker 1: and used the clout from that to shatter any chance 443 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:32,120 Speaker 1: of California developing a high speed rail system. By the way, 444 00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 1: in June of twenty twenty two, Tesla stock value plunged 445 00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,639 Speaker 1: seventy five billion dollars, which is substantially more money than 446 00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:42,640 Speaker 1: the company has ever actually made. Elucidating the full scale 447 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:46,119 Speaker 1: of the failure of Silicon Valley an American techno optimism 448 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:48,760 Speaker 1: would take more time than I'm able to spend right now, 449 00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 1: So instead, I want to talk about the idea that's 450 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:53,920 Speaker 1: behind so much of the recent big failures that we've 451 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,760 Speaker 1: seen from big tech stuff like meta pissing away ten 452 00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: billion dollars half the budget of NASA in a year 453 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:03,640 Speaker 1: to create a worse version of vr chat. The idea 454 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:07,359 Speaker 1: is called blitz scaling, and it basically means attempting to 455 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,960 Speaker 1: achieve massive scale at breakneck speed. You take big risks 456 00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,040 Speaker 1: and you spend huge amounts of money very quickly to 457 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:15,680 Speaker 1: try and force apps or other products onto the market 458 00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,879 Speaker 1: that are then adopted rapidly by huge numbers of people. 459 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 1: This brings in a shitload of VC money and is 460 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:23,919 Speaker 1: a way that you can make a fortune. In the 461 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,639 Speaker 1: years since Jobs brought the first iPhone out on stage, 462 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:29,960 Speaker 1: this has become the dominant model of Silicon Valley entrepreneurship. 463 00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:33,080 Speaker 1: Everyone is looking for the next iPhone, right, something that 464 00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,440 Speaker 1: can take over an industry, something that can take over 465 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:39,280 Speaker 1: the world that rapidly, that can change human life almost overnight. 466 00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:43,359 Speaker 1: In funding Calls, Mark Zuckerberg says this. In Funding Calls, 467 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 1: Mark Zuckerberg says this very directly, comparing his company's metaverse 468 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:50,400 Speaker 1: dreams to the new smartphone. The thing that Mark misses 469 00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:53,879 Speaker 1: because his ideology renders it invisible, is that Steve Jobs 470 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,919 Speaker 1: didn't make people want the iPhone. He was able to 471 00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,840 Speaker 1: figure out what they wanted already, what they had talked 472 00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:03,320 Speaker 1: to about running for decades, starting with tricorders and communicators 473 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,119 Speaker 1: on Star Trek, and he lashed his dev team until 474 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:09,600 Speaker 1: they built the damn thing. Now, the metaverse has some 475 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:13,120 Speaker 1: analogs in fiction, including the thing that it gets its 476 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 1: name from, but number one, most depictions of the metaverse 477 00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:22,400 Speaker 1: in fiction are not aspirational things people want their dystopian 478 00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:26,119 Speaker 1: There's no evidence that people actually want this thing that 479 00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,600 Speaker 1: he's igniting a fortune to build, or that they'd spend 480 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,240 Speaker 1: meaningful periods of time in it if it existed. There's 481 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:32,880 Speaker 1: not a lot of polling on this data, but one 482 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,800 Speaker 1: in seven but one seventeen thousand person survey I found 483 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:39,880 Speaker 1: showed less than twenty percent of respondents expressing an interest 484 00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,800 Speaker 1: in a metaverse like the Onezuck is trying to build. 485 00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,399 Speaker 1: The last time Facebook provided any kind of information about 486 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:48,760 Speaker 1: how many people are on Horizon Worlds, which is kind 487 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,320 Speaker 1: of the core of their metaverse efforts, it was somewhere 488 00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 1: around three hundred thousand people in the most recent quarter. 489 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,560 Speaker 1: They declined to provide an update to those numbers, which 490 00:25:56,560 --> 00:26:00,199 Speaker 1: suggests the number has not increased, and if you just 491 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,600 Speaker 1: want to look at what happens when people create a 492 00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,840 Speaker 1: digital product that actually has a strong base of interest. 493 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,679 Speaker 1: Look at how quickly a world of warcraft went from, 494 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,000 Speaker 1: you know, a thing that very few people outside of 495 00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 1: nerds would have known much about, to a thing that 496 00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 1: was entirely mainstream, millions of users, regular references to it 497 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 1: on television. You're just not seeing that with any of 498 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,200 Speaker 1: this metaverse shit, because there's nothing in it that people 499 00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:28,719 Speaker 1: actually want. The sheer hollowness of big tech is starting 500 00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:33,000 Speaker 1: to become financially obvious too. Facebook stock has lost fifty 501 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,920 Speaker 1: seven percent of its value in the last year. Amazon 502 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,560 Speaker 1: is down twenty six percent, Google by twenty nine percent, 503 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,560 Speaker 1: and even Apple has fallen by fourteen percent. More to 504 00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:43,760 Speaker 1: the point, I think any honest person has to look 505 00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:46,040 Speaker 1: at the last fifteen years or so in which these 506 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,880 Speaker 1: companies have ruled our economic and social lives and ask 507 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,320 Speaker 1: are we better off now? Over the course of the 508 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:56,520 Speaker 1: nineteenth century, productivity and income rose at unprecedented rates. There 509 00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:58,800 Speaker 1: was a lot of brutality in this process, right. We talk, 510 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,520 Speaker 1: you know, on Behind the Basterds regularly about all of 511 00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:04,280 Speaker 1: the horrible labor things that happened in the nineteenth century. 512 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,160 Speaker 1: It also marked the beginning of the fossil fuel age, 513 00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:09,240 Speaker 1: which may well kill us all. But while all this 514 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,600 Speaker 1: was going on, another thing that happened is wages for 515 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:13,879 Speaker 1: the working class doubled in the first half of the 516 00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:17,800 Speaker 1: nineteenth century, and the second half. Life expectancy rose faster 517 00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:20,680 Speaker 1: than it ever had before as well, and that continued 518 00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,880 Speaker 1: through the first part of the twentieth century. Now, near 519 00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,400 Speaker 1: the end of the first quarter of the twenty first century, 520 00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 1: we're not seeing that kind of movement. The United States 521 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,640 Speaker 1: is now ending its second consecutive year of declining life 522 00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,399 Speaker 1: expectancy for the first time in any of our lifetimes, 523 00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:39,480 Speaker 1: and real average wage, adjusted for inflation, has remained flat 524 00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:44,520 Speaker 1: for almost half a century. Progress has flatlined, and nothing 525 00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:47,760 Speaker 1: about how brilliant the modern tech industry is or how 526 00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:51,040 Speaker 1: cool some of these gadgets and products are can change 527 00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:59,080 Speaker 1: those fundamental facts. It's a failure. It could happen here 528 00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:01,879 Speaker 1: as a production of Zone Media. For more podcasts from 529 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:05,040 Speaker 1: Cool Zone Media, visit our website Coolzonemedia dot com, or 530 00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:07,760 Speaker 1: check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or 531 00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:10,840 Speaker 1: wherever you listen to podcasts. You can find sources for 532 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,200 Speaker 1: it could happen here. Updated monthly at Coolzonmedia dot com 533 00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,120 Speaker 1: Slash Sources, Thanks for listening.