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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go, throwing show. We're sitting up

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Speaker 2: to cash touchdown.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible. Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate kabak.

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Speaker 3: You want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 3: Chris Raybond, and this is the NFL Week eight betting edition.

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Speaker 3: On today's show, we will be breaking down our top

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Speaker 3: six favorite spread bets in the Sunday six pack, also

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Speaker 3: giving you our favorite total pick of the week, keyser

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Speaker 3: moneyline parlay, and a Survivor pool pick. Of course, we'll

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Speaker 3: start by breaking down Thursday Night Football. But before we

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Speaker 3: get into that, just a reminder download the free Action

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Speaker 3: Network app for real time odds, box scores, and the

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Speaker 3: capability to track every bet that you make. Now, let's

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Speaker 3: get into our Thursday Night football preview.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 3: Tonight's matchup features the one and six Washington Redskins going

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Speaker 3: to Minnesota to face the five and two vikings. The

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Speaker 3: spread is sixteen and a half sixty one percent of

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Speaker 3: the bet, sixty three percent of the money on Minnesota

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Speaker 3: over under currently sitting at forty two sixty five percent

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Speaker 3: of the ticket, sixty percent of the money on the over.

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Speaker 3: Here to help me break down the game, as always

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Speaker 3: the prime minister of Degenerate Nation, My guy's Stucky.

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Speaker 2: Who's bets?

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Speaker 3: You can follow in the Action Network app at Stucky

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Speaker 3: two as well as mine at Chris Raybond. What's good stuff?

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Speaker 2: Hey, what's going on? Brother?

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Speaker 3: The Chargers did me dirty last week, so I'm excited

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Speaker 3: to kind of get back here and retake my lead.

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Speaker 3: But I don't know how excited anyone is about this

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Speaker 3: Washington Minnesota game. So any thoughts here as we go

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Speaker 3: into what seems to be one of these ugly Thursday

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Speaker 3: night affairs.

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Speaker 2: We'll get to our six pack shortly. It's twenty one,

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Speaker 2: twenty one through seven weeks. It's the hell of the

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Speaker 2: contest so far. And the funny thing is my goal

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Speaker 2: was to get like three points every week, and I

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Speaker 2: figure I would and that's what I've I had gotten

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Speaker 2: you you as well, and we're tied so it should

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Speaker 2: be a good finish. Yeah, that's swing on that fumble. Man.

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Speaker 2: The Chargers just charged. But yeah, this My thoughts on

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Speaker 2: the game are there should be a World Series game.

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Speaker 2: At least there's some NHL, there's some NBA now for

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Speaker 2: u NBA peeps. It's one of those games where, look,

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Speaker 2: I always look for a reason to avoid Thursday night football,

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Speaker 2: and I feel like I have it here. You know,

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Speaker 2: like there just tends to be these ugly games where

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Speaker 2: there's so much sloppiness and one team looks completely unprepared.

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Speaker 2: And it's especially the case when there's just it's a

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Speaker 2: complete mismatch, which this is. Now. If I know most

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Speaker 2: of you out there are probably going to want to

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Speaker 2: bet it or will bet it, even if you don't

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Speaker 2: like a side or a total. If I had to

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Speaker 2: bet it, I'd probably look at the under. At forty two.

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Speaker 2: You have Adam Thiel and is out for the Vikings,

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Speaker 2: which it looks like, you know, without him, IRV Smith's

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Speaker 2: gonna get more involved with the Vikings as he did

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Speaker 2: last week when dealing went down. You know, old B C. Johnson,

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Speaker 2: but obviously they're not as dynamic on the outside. So

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Speaker 2: I think It'll probably be an excuse or reason for

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Speaker 2: Zimmer and company to just run the ball a ton,

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Speaker 2: which is what they want to do, and that's also

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Speaker 2: what Callahan wants to do. On the other side with

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Speaker 2: the Redskins. You know, this is a weird game in

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Speaker 2: that you have all these people returning to their old teams.

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Speaker 2: Cousins playing the Skins, Keenum playing the Vikings, Peterson going

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Speaker 2: back to Minnesota. Peterson has a I think sprained ankle,

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Speaker 2: but he's still going to play. Callahan has talked about

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Speaker 2: we'd either run the ball, we needither run the ball

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Speaker 2: old school coach shit. Peterson has carried the ball forty

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Speaker 2: three times last two weeks. One of the games was

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Speaker 2: in a month soon. But I expect the Skins to

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Speaker 2: try and run the ball ton shorten the game, so

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Speaker 2: I would look under Now, the Minnesota is probably, I

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Speaker 2: will say this maybe one of the most underrated teams

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Speaker 2: in the NFL. And you know, they're always the butt

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Speaker 2: of all jokes, and I guess we should throw out

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Speaker 2: there that Kirk Cousins hasn't done two on prime time.

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Speaker 2: But Minnesota, if you look at what they've done, they're

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Speaker 2: the only team in the top six in the NFL

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Speaker 2: in the yards for play on both offense and defense.

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Speaker 2: You know, Cousins has been excellent over the past couple weeks.

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Speaker 2: I mean he's played the Giants, the Eagles, and the Lions,

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Speaker 2: you know, not the Dolphins, but not the hardest schedule

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Speaker 2: in the world. And if you look at their losses,

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Speaker 2: they probably should have won at Green Bay, and I

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Speaker 2: was on Green Bay that game, and you know, they

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Speaker 2: lost sixteen to six against the Bears in a game

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Speaker 2: where just Cousins looked awful. But other than that, they've

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Speaker 2: looked pretty good every week. This team is definitely a

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Speaker 2: contender in the NFC Weird Thursday Night ish. If I

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Speaker 2: had a bet that I'd look under.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually already bet the under at forty two.

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Speaker 3: I think that one will probably drop to about forty

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Speaker 3: one by game time. It just doesn't make much sense

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Speaker 3: for the Vikings to try to pile it on here

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Speaker 3: on a short week. I think they want to keep

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Speaker 3: everybody healthy, and this is a matchup where they had

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Speaker 3: the advantage. As you mentioned, if you look at Mike Zimmer,

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Speaker 3: his defense has usually come prepared to these things no

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Speaker 3: matter what, whether Cousin shows up or not the under

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Speaker 3: when the Vikings are at home since Zimmer took over

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Speaker 3: twenty six and seventeen sixty percent hit rate, so I

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Speaker 3: usually bang the under on most Vikings games. It didn't

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Speaker 3: work out last week. Matthew Stafford Marvin Jones connection kind

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Speaker 3: of ruined that. But you know, at the end of

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Speaker 3: the day, this is this is one where both of

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Speaker 3: these teams want to run. I mean, the Redskins played

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Speaker 3: a nine to nothing game, granted in in bad weather,

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Speaker 3: but they also played a seventeen sixteen game versus Miami

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Speaker 3: where you know that went about a touchdown a little

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Speaker 3: over a touchdown under the total as well, So not

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Speaker 3: much confidence that these teams are going to put up

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Speaker 3: many points. If you're looking at better side, I mean, yeah,

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Speaker 3: I probably stay away here. You don't really want to

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Speaker 3: take the Redskins in this spot. But at the end

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Speaker 3: of the day, it's a ton of points, could be

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Speaker 3: a lost right, and that's that's what kind of leads

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Speaker 3: you there. But then you look at you know, favorites

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Speaker 3: on home, favorites on Thursday night football, you know, per hour,

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Speaker 3: per bet labs, and you could you know, check that

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Speaker 3: out at actually at Betlabsports dot Com no part of

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Speaker 3: the Action Network Home favorites on Thursday Night Football, going back,

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Speaker 3: you know essentially the past two decades seventy one, forty

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Speaker 3: seven and four against the spread sixty percent. The only

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Speaker 3: thing is they haven't done as well this year, just

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Speaker 3: one and four. But when you have a mismatch like

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Speaker 3: this on a short week, the better team tends to

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Speaker 3: show up. So it's a tough one for me. I

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Speaker 3: probably would stay away and just stay with my under bet.

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Speaker 2: So, you know, with Josh Norman out, which I think

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Speaker 2: is addition by subtraction, and then you have Feeling out,

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Speaker 2: you know, Dunbar, you know, it probably get it done

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Speaker 2: if he's matched up with Diggs and it's just a

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Speaker 2: depleted Vikings receiving corpse. So it's not a game where

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Speaker 2: I think they put up forty as we do every week.

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Speaker 3: Let's conclude our Thursday Night Football breakdown with the coaches

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Speaker 3: pep Talk. This week's pep Talk comes to us from

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Speaker 3: General George S. Patten from the Oscar winning at nineteen

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Speaker 3: seventy film Patton, and we're dedicating it to the Washington

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Speaker 3: Redskins because this is going to be an ugly line

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Speaker 3: about the only thing they can hope to do in

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Speaker 3: this one is put up a fight and hope a

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Speaker 3: couple of bounces. It's going to be tough. Hopefully the

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Speaker 3: Dkins put up a fight.

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Speaker 4: Americans traditionally love to fight. All real Americans love the

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Speaker 4: sting of battle. When you were kids, you all admired

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Speaker 4: the champion marble shooter, the fastest runner, big league ball players,

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Speaker 4: the toughest boxers. Americans love a winner and will not

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Speaker 4: tolerate a loser. Americans played a win all the time.

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Speaker 4: I wouldn't give a hoot in hell for a man

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Speaker 4: lost and laughed because the very thought of losing is

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Speaker 4: hateful to America.

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Speaker 3: And before we move on to the main event, let's

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Speaker 3: hear from Action Network animal expert Matthew Friedman.

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Speaker 5: I hope you're enjoying this great Action Network podcast. I

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Speaker 5: want to make sure you know about the Locked On

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Speaker 5: podcast network. Locked On as a daily podcast on your

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Speaker 5: favorite team.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers.

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Speaker 3: You were locked out of the Dallas marriage? Can everybody

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Speaker 3: still Locked on?

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Speaker 2: Lakers?

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Speaker 3: Podcast?

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Speaker 2: Let's Go?

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Speaker 5: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

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Speaker 5: know your team better than anyone and give you the

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Speaker 5: inside scoop, So go to your podcast app and search

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Speaker 5: locked on your favorite team, subscribe to your Locked on podcast.

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Speaker 3: Thank you for that very special message, Matthew. All Right, Stuck,

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Speaker 3: it's time for the main event. Let's get into it,

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Speaker 3: the Sunday six pack. There's stayper action.

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Speaker 1: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: All right, Stuck. As you mentioned at the top, you

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Speaker 3: pulled even with me Bro all tied up at twenty

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Speaker 3: one apiece, which does mean we are both hitting sixty

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Speaker 3: percent of our picks, which I think we'll both take

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Speaker 3: at this point in the season. It's been kind of

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Speaker 3: a wild ride so far. I think some teams were

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Speaker 3: not who we thought they were. They are who we

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Speaker 3: thought they were. Let's get into, you know, our first pick,

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Speaker 3: and for those unfamiliar, we do three picks each every week.

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Speaker 3: We can't be on the same side, but we can

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Speaker 3: be on different sides of the same game. Our top

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Speaker 3: cickets to our others get one, and then we also

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Speaker 3: score our overrun pick that will come up after this segment.

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Speaker 3: At a point each I'm going with my first pick

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Speaker 3: with a team that I think is getting a little underrated.

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Speaker 3: Maybe it's because they're coming off the buy. Maybe it's

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Speaker 3: because everyone's so surprised about how good the Niners have been,

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Speaker 3: and you know, they pulled a shut out even though

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Speaker 3: they didn't cover last week. But I like the Carolina

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Speaker 3: Panthers plus six. You know, I think this team is

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Speaker 3: one of those teams that's, you know, not maybe as

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Speaker 3: surprisingly good as San Francisco, but just as solid. I think,

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Speaker 3: you know, this is a team that they can stop

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Speaker 3: the pass, they can put up points. You know, you

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Speaker 3: called it earlier in the year stuck. You know, Cam

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Speaker 3: Newton and his injuries pretty much additioned by subtraction because

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Speaker 3: in a lot of ways, you know, kind of designing

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Speaker 3: that offense around him and then having to shift it

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Speaker 3: on the fly when you couldn't really do what you

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Speaker 3: expected him to do on the ground. I think that

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Speaker 3: was tough for this team, and you know, the inaccurate

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Speaker 3: passing just kind of compounded matters. But the bottom line

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Speaker 3: is North Turner has done an excellent job otherwise with

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Speaker 3: that offense with Kyle Allen, we've seen the San Francisco

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Speaker 3: team now as good as they are and as good

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Speaker 3: as I think they are on defense, they've had some

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Speaker 3: trouble scoring at times, and you know a lot of

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Speaker 3: their wins have come when you know they've really held

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Speaker 3: the other team down. And in this game, I don't

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Speaker 3: think there's that big of a mismatch. I think Carolina,

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Speaker 3: especially with the extra time to prepare, you know, they

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Speaker 3: have weapons all around Christian McCaffrey, Curtis, Samuel, DJ Moore,

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Speaker 3: Greg Olsen, pretty good tight end as well, and they

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Speaker 3: play their guys like they're playing all their guys, you know,

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Speaker 3: for all the snaps if they need to. So I

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Speaker 3: like Carolina in this spot. I think six is a

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Speaker 3: little bit too much. I would expect that to drop

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Speaker 3: into that dead zone that you know, four and a

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Speaker 3: half five probably by game time. And you know, we

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Speaker 3: tend to underrate Ron Rivera and the Panthers in these spots.

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Speaker 3: He is twenty four and fourteen against the spread as

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Speaker 3: a road underdog, and Kyle Shanahan mentioned it last week

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Speaker 3: with that failure to cover it to the Redskins because

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Speaker 3: they were favored by ten only won by nine. Shanahan

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Speaker 3: now two and seven against the spread as a favorite.

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Speaker 3: So this is the time when I'm willing to go

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Speaker 3: a little bit against the grain with the Carolina Panthers here,

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Speaker 3: I think they actually have a chance to pull off

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Speaker 3: the upset.

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Speaker 2: You know, this is one on the surface that I'm

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Speaker 2: still digging and I have a couple of my plays

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Speaker 2: for the six pack. This is one of the ugliest

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Speaker 2: NFL cards. There's still some injury out there, but that

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Speaker 2: I've seen in a long time. But usually one of

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Speaker 2: these a year one week where I'm like, this is horrendous.

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Speaker 2: And when you went and picked first and you picked Carolina,

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Speaker 2: I was And I didn't tell you this, but I

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Speaker 2: was livid because that was one of the That was

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Speaker 2: one of the plays that I do like. I felt

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Speaker 2: like I had ownership on them. I think they're like

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Speaker 2: four and oh for me in our contest so far

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Speaker 2: this year, I've had them three times with Kyle Allen.

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Speaker 2: They've won four straight. And you want to hear a

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Speaker 2: crazy stat. Teams that have one four straight and this

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Speaker 2: isn't a small simplesis but it's pretty crazy. It doesn't

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Speaker 2: happen often teams that have won four straight and then

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Speaker 2: go on a buy and then their next games on

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Speaker 2: the road. It's only happened nine times. Yeah, since two

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Speaker 2: thousand and three. Those teams are nine to zero against

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Speaker 2: the spread, so good teams benefiting from that, and I

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Speaker 2: think the Panthers will benefit from that. You know, they're

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Speaker 2: getting Trade Turner back at guard and one of the

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Speaker 2: most underrated aspects of the Panthers team this year is

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Speaker 2: their second Andry. You know, they've given up a little

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Speaker 2: bit on the ground, but you know, with Bradbury, you know,

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Speaker 2: and Dante Jackson, who will be back this week, their

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Speaker 2: safeties are playing really well. They just don't give up

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Speaker 2: anything down the field. Now, they're a little vulnerable in

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Speaker 2: the run game, but they have you know, they have

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Speaker 2: great linebackers as well, and keith Ley and Thompson Burns

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Speaker 2: on the outside. They get a ton of pressure too.

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Speaker 2: And the fort Niners are still backed up on the

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Speaker 2: offensive line. I know they've added Emmanuel Sanders. Don't forget

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Speaker 2: about Cockrell too. We'll play in the slot, will probably

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Speaker 2: play on some, play some on Kittle. He played well

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Speaker 2: in Jackson's absence. But they don't really give up anything downfield.

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Speaker 2: And I think Sanders gonna copany. He's gonna help the

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Speaker 2: fort Niners a lot. But he's coming in a couple

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Speaker 2: of days before this game. I mean, there's gonna be

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Speaker 2: some timing issues, and so I don't think that he's

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Speaker 2: going to come in right away and crush it with

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Speaker 2: Jimmy g And I've said this all along. Without uscheck

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Speaker 2: and with their tackles out, their run game just isn't

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Speaker 2: the same. Now. I get it that last week was

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Speaker 2: in a monsoon, but if you look at that Rams game,

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Speaker 2: they had what thirty something carries for forty forty something

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Speaker 2: carries for nine to nine yards. One game is just

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Speaker 2: not the same with use check. Neither is the blitz

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Speaker 2: protection Carolina. I think top two or three both these

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Speaker 2: teams in the adjusted Sakra burns. It looks like we'll play.

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Speaker 2: They can get pressure from all over, they'll bring pressure

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Speaker 2: from the linebackers. I agree. I think the four Niners

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Speaker 2: are a legit team in the NFC, legit contender from

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Speaker 2: everything I've seen ones, especially once they get healthy. But

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Speaker 2: Carolina is also a contender off of a bye. I

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Speaker 2: think it's a little too high. So I agree with

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Speaker 2: you there, yeah, and then I.

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Speaker 3: Just want one more thing. You know, we always I

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Speaker 3: always talk about kind of passing kills me in an

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Speaker 3: either direction when these because these things are close, especially

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Speaker 3: by week eight, a lot of these lines are kind

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Speaker 3: of adjusting in the right direction. But Carolina number two

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Speaker 3: in the league, just four point one adjusted net yards

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Speaker 3: allowed per pass attempt, and that, you know, that is

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Speaker 3: something where the forty nine have been inconsistent in the

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Speaker 3: past game. And you mentioned it, you know, tackles banged

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Speaker 3: up if they have to throw. I still think that

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Speaker 3: favorites Carolina.

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Speaker 2: So yep, all right. So for my first pick, I

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Speaker 2: told you this is an ugly week, you know. For

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Speaker 2: my first pick, I'm going with Matt Moore and the

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Speaker 2: Kansas City Chiefs. I'm going against my beloved Green Bay Packers,

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Speaker 2: and it's for three main reasons, which I'll give one.

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Speaker 2: Andy Reid with extra time to prep he's been excellent.

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Speaker 2: It's Tim Belichick and Harball mentioned that last week on

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Speaker 2: the podcast. They're three of the best. You give him

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Speaker 2: extra time to prepare, which he has here they played

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Speaker 2: on Thursday night. He's gonna come up with this scheme

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Speaker 2: regardless of who his quarterback is. Matt Moore impressed me

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Speaker 2: against Deborah and he was coming into the year one

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Speaker 2: of the top five backup in the NFL. And he's

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Speaker 2: twenty and ten against the spread. So he has overperformed expectations.

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Speaker 2: He's even my expectations in the past. Kansas City is

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Speaker 2: also getting healthier, which is what that long break does. Basically,

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Speaker 2: what this comes down to is this line is just

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Speaker 2: over and played. I played at five. I'll take it

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Speaker 2: a four whatever it's at right now. I basically have

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Speaker 2: Kansas City as a couple points better than Green Bay

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Speaker 2: with one of the home best home fields in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: I make this line four and a half ish with

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Speaker 2: healthy Mahomes. With the healthy team, I don't have Patrick

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Speaker 2: Mahome when you factor in you know, read with extra

335
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Speaker 2: time here and the Green Bay injuries, I don't have

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Speaker 2: the difference between Mahomes and Matt Moore as being ten

337
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Speaker 2: points different. I have a close through about a touchdown,

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Speaker 2: especially now that you know he played last week. It's

339
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Speaker 2: not like this is a fluke thing. He's going to

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Speaker 2: run with the ones for nine days. And also Mahomes.

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Speaker 2: Maybe Mahomes comes in. I don't think he is, but

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Speaker 2: apparently he's practicing today. And then you know this, This

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Speaker 2: Packers team has been running really well and I have

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Speaker 2: they're my only future. I think they're legit in at

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Speaker 2: a wide open NFC. But you know, you know, you

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Speaker 2: look at that Vikings game, you look at even the

347
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Speaker 2: Broncos game at home. You know, there's been a couple

348
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Speaker 2: of games where they've gotten the bounce of the ball,

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Speaker 2: they've got the break. So I think that that's contributing

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Speaker 2: to you know, they're a little over inflation in the

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Speaker 2: market right now. And most importantly, I shit on this

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Speaker 2: Chiefs defense all year and there's still flaws. But last week,

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Speaker 2: what they finally did and Steve Spagnola, you know, after

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Speaker 2: looking into the Chiefs, what I think was happening is

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Speaker 2: they were saying, look, we have mahomes, I don't care,

356
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Speaker 2: we can give yards. Yeah, let's not go to thing.

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Speaker 2: But but he finally brought pressure and he was blitzing

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Speaker 2: from everywhere, you know, in his four to three zone

359
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Speaker 2: blitzing scheme. And the Packers are going to run a

360
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Speaker 2: lot of you know, twelve personnel and we'll be able

361
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Speaker 2: to stay in that and they're gonna bring pressure. Playing

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Speaker 2: Reggie Raglan, they finally played. He was he had a

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Speaker 2: hell of a game. I don't know why he hasn't

364
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Speaker 2: been playing. But Chris Jones will probably be back as well,

365
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Speaker 2: maybe Fuller but he's going to bring pressure. I'm convinced

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Speaker 2: of it. He knows that they have to compensate, you know,

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Speaker 2: for not having Mahomes on the other side. So I

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Speaker 2: love that I saw for that defense. I think speG Nooel,

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Speaker 2: who's known as a blitzing coach. The one thing that

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Speaker 2: gives me pause is the last time that Spegnoela faced Rogers,

371
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Speaker 2: I think was in the playoffs in twenty seventeen, and

372
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Speaker 2: the Giants you probably know better than lost like forty

373
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Speaker 2: three seventeen, but that's when Rogers had really good receivers

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Speaker 2: and his full compliment, you know, a full arsenal at

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Speaker 2: his disposal. He has banged up receivers. Right now, I

376
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Speaker 2: don't know who's going to play, who's out, but I

377
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Speaker 2: love what I saw from Spagnol on that defense. But

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Speaker 2: it's basically just read extra time. The prep Chiefs are

379
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Speaker 2: going to breig pressure, that defense finally has some confidence,

380
00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:07,119
Speaker 2: getting healthier overall, and the line is just over and played.

381
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Speaker 2: I think green Bay should be a three point favorite here,

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Speaker 2: so I'll take the Chiefs plus four or five.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, quick, how do you feel about the money line,

384
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Speaker 3: because I got a crazy stat for you. When you're

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Speaker 3: on the money line and you're an underdog, obviously your

386
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Speaker 3: chances of winning are implied to be less than fifty percent.

387
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Speaker 3: Andy Reid in his career when the Chiefs are an

388
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Speaker 3: underdog on the money line is fourteen and fourteen, So

389
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Speaker 3: essentially he's been winning at a fifty percent clip when

390
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Speaker 3: the Chiefs are supposed to be not the most likely

391
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Speaker 3: team in the game to win. So how do you

392
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Speaker 3: feel about that? If it moves to three and people

393
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Speaker 3: are like, I don't know.

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Speaker 2: It would not shock me in the least if the

395
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Speaker 2: Chiefs win this game. And people were just discounting the

396
00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:45,000
Speaker 2: drop off from Mahomes to more too much, but they're

397
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Speaker 2: not accounting for how much read is worth the extra

398
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Speaker 2: time to repair. I always tell people like, what is

399
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Speaker 2: a by worth? And I always say, well, it depends

400
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Speaker 2: on the team, and it depends on the coach vainly.

401
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Speaker 2: And when you give Reid, when you give Belichick, when

402
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Speaker 2: you give you know, Horball, They've proven over time that

403
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Speaker 2: after a bye week or with extra time to prepare,

404
00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:10,120
Speaker 2: they're going to come up with a game plan that

405
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Speaker 2: is successful on the field. So I think that's being

406
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Speaker 2: discounted here. Yeah, I don't hate the money on it all.

407
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Speaker 3: All right. For my number two pick, I'm gonna go

408
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Speaker 3: and yeah, you mentioned it. This is really just not

409
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Speaker 3: my favorite week, but I'm going with the New York

410
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Speaker 3: Jets here plus six and this is just to play

411
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Speaker 3: based on the fact that I think when you look

412
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Speaker 3: at the Jaguars and and some of the teams they've played,

413
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Speaker 3: they've been able to run the ball. And I think

414
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Speaker 3: the one thing with the Jets, it's kind of gone underrated.

415
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:38,600
Speaker 3: And I think this will happen for most of the year,

416
00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,439
Speaker 3: especially with these AFC East teams. Well not the Dolphins

417
00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:43,160
Speaker 3: as much, but the Bills and the and the Jets

418
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:45,480
Speaker 3: has been when you play New England and then come

419
00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:48,119
Speaker 3: off a game against New England, you look horrible, and

420
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Speaker 3: then and then the next week you probably get a

421
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Speaker 3: little bit underrated. But the New York Jets are number

422
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Speaker 3: six in run defense DVOA and you know, yeah they

423
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Speaker 3: get with the three touchdowns to Michelle with that's because

424
00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:00,119
Speaker 3: you know, the Patriots had the ball all game and

425
00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:03,480
Speaker 3: couldn't The Jets offense really couldn't get going. But I

426
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Speaker 3: think that when you're able to stop the run against

427
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Speaker 3: Jacksonville it's a lot more of an even game. You know,

428
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Speaker 3: the Jaguars aren't gonna not not necessarily gonna be here

429
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Speaker 3: blowing people out. I think six is a few too

430
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Speaker 3: like a little too much for this spread given these

431
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Speaker 3: two teams. You know, the Jets also have had the

432
00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:21,880
Speaker 3: hardest schedule in the league if you look at DVOA,

433
00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:24,560
Speaker 3: so all those things kind of combined. I just think

434
00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:26,800
Speaker 3: this Jets team is, you know, probably a little bit

435
00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:30,480
Speaker 3: below average team, whereas the Jaguars probably an average team

436
00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:32,800
Speaker 3: that's played you know, they played the Bengals and some teams.

437
00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,320
Speaker 3: So I think that when you look at it in totality,

438
00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:37,520
Speaker 3: I think this should be another game that's more in

439
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,960
Speaker 3: that dead zone like that that four to five and

440
00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:43,280
Speaker 3: a half range. So I'm happy to still take the

441
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:44,960
Speaker 3: Jets as at plus six.

442
00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:46,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have no real field there. I mean, if

443
00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,879
Speaker 2: I had a side with either team, I'd probably agree

444
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:51,080
Speaker 2: with you and go with the Jets. I think this

445
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,280
Speaker 2: is a little inflated based on I mean, they do

446
00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:56,119
Speaker 2: have a short week. There's questions about Mosley again, but

447
00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:59,480
Speaker 2: their defense was you know, it wasn't terrible without them,

448
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,080
Speaker 2: and it's not like they've been playing all year with them,

449
00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:04,960
Speaker 2: but I think after that performance where Sam Darnold was

450
00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:08,680
Speaker 2: seeing ghosts exactly, you know, you're getting an extra point

451
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:11,840
Speaker 2: or two here with the Jags, who really haven't looked

452
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:13,639
Speaker 2: great the last couple of weeks. I mean, they just

453
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,080
Speaker 2: got gifts from Cincy and kind of the Minshew magic

454
00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:18,240
Speaker 2: is kind of we're off a little bit, all right.

455
00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:21,040
Speaker 2: For my next couple picks, it's not going to be pretty.

456
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,240
Speaker 2: But you know, I already mentioned I was going to

457
00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:25,760
Speaker 2: go with Carolina, and there's a theme of my week here.

458
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:30,680
Speaker 2: I'm really fading teams that I think are overvalued because

459
00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:35,120
Speaker 2: they've played nobody. And there's you know, three or four

460
00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:37,800
Speaker 2: teams in particular that jump out. So if you look

461
00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:40,280
Speaker 2: at the forty nine ers, their strength of schedule is

462
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:45,240
Speaker 2: two eighty two. Next worst in the NFC is over

463
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:47,680
Speaker 2: four hundred. I think it's the Cowboys. I mean, they

464
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:51,400
Speaker 2: have played nobody that is by far. They're by far

465
00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:55,080
Speaker 2: the easiest schedule in the NFC. And you know, if

466
00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:57,680
Speaker 2: you look in the AFC, the same thing can be

467
00:20:57,680 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 2: said for a couple of teams, and I'm gonna fade

468
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:03,239
Speaker 2: both of them. I'll start with the Bills all right,

469
00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:05,400
Speaker 2: the Bills are five and one. Here are the quarterbacks

470
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 2: that they have beat Mariota by seven, Fitzpatrick by ten,

471
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:16,120
Speaker 2: Darnold by one, Andy Dalton by four, Eli Manning by fourteen.

472
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:19,919
Speaker 2: Those teams have a six and twenty seven record. They

473
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:22,520
Speaker 2: won those games by a total of thirty six points,

474
00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:25,400
Speaker 2: about a touchdown per game. Those five quarterbacks, though they

475
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 2: have three combined wins three out of those five games.

476
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:31,919
Speaker 2: Two of them are now on the bench, and Eli

477
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 2: and Mariota. So you know, I get that the Eagles

478
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 2: are an absolute mess right now, and they have problems

479
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 2: four days and you know they're going to be starting potentially.

480
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:46,760
Speaker 2: You know, their defensive line depth, which is the strength

481
00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 2: of their team, is also in question now. They're probably

482
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 2: gonna be starting. You know, two guys they picked up

483
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,440
Speaker 2: off practice squads this week. I shouldn't say starting, but

484
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 2: they're gonna be getting playing time. Defensive line is still

485
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,639
Speaker 2: a strength, you know, with Graham and Cox and Barnett,

486
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,560
Speaker 2: and they're still going to be formidable against that Bills

487
00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:03,439
Speaker 2: offensive line, which is one of the reasons I like this.

488
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 2: I also don't trust in Josh Allen, whoeveryone wants to

489
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 2: hate on Wentz and he hasn't been great. And you

490
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:10,879
Speaker 2: know their dude, do miss to Sean Jackson, who may

491
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 2: or may not play, didn't practice today, and they really

492
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 2: miss his downfield threat. We've talked about this because the

493
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 2: whole offense will open up once they have a deep Threa.

494
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 2: But Josh Allen what a seven touchdowns and seven picks,

495
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 2: But he's on a five and one team that's played

496
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 2: absolutely nobody. You know the Bills are you know, their

497
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 2: strength the victory is one eighty two, one eighty two.

498
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:32,639
Speaker 2: Their strength to schedule is three twenty five. I mean

499
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,359
Speaker 2: they've played I just should you they played nobody at all.

500
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 2: I'm not buying it. I think that you know, the

501
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 2: Eagles getting blown out the last two weeks, they're not

502
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,520
Speaker 2: as bad as we saw. Everything went wrong in that

503
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,719
Speaker 2: Dallas game. It was fumbles early on key penalties at

504
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:48,160
Speaker 2: the wrong time. I think they had four turnovers. They're

505
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 2: not as bad as they look. And the Bills are

506
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 2: not a five to one team. They're five and one.

507
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 2: But just because they haven't played anybody, Josh Allen doesn't

508
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:58,119
Speaker 2: scare me downfield. Maybe Brown will hit a couple of plays,

509
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,200
Speaker 2: you know, you know, I'm sure he'll get a couple

510
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:02,680
Speaker 2: plays in the past, but this isn't an aerial tack

511
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:07,639
Speaker 2: that can fully exploit the eagles secondary issues. Yes, the

512
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:10,160
Speaker 2: Eagles are playing their third straight game on the road,

513
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 2: which might scare some people off. Doesn't happen often. Teams

514
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 2: that have done that since twenty three, twenty nine, and

515
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 2: twenty nine against the spread, so not really an issue.

516
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:19,679
Speaker 2: The Eagles did it two years ago, went up to

517
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 2: New York and beat the Giants I think by seven

518
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 2: and just a hard home. I'm not a big trends guy,

519
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 2: but just to harp home my buy low here. Teams

520
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,439
Speaker 2: off two straight games of not covering and the last

521
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,360
Speaker 2: one they didn't cover by at least fourteen points. Those

522
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 2: teams are one hundred and fifteen and one hundred and

523
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 2: twelve and nine about fifty eight percent. It's two thousand

524
00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,439
Speaker 2: and three as a dog one hundred and one and

525
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 2: sixty five over close to sixty one percent. It's a

526
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 2: good by low opportunity on the Eagles, who I still

527
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 2: rate better than the Bills. Wait for the three. You know,

528
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,640
Speaker 2: if the three problem taken, yeah, I think there's two

529
00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,399
Speaker 2: and a half, which I'll take for the contest, but

530
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 2: wait for the three as I'm doing. But I'm buying

531
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 2: low on the Eagles. Keep in mind that it's I

532
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,639
Speaker 2: think it'll be low scoring game as well punning. Eagles

533
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:09,400
Speaker 2: have a big punning advantage. I think I'll have advantage

534
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 2: in the special in field position all day. I'm buying

535
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 2: low on the Eagles. They're not as bad as they've looked.

536
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,240
Speaker 2: And you're getting inflation on a Bills team that's five

537
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:19,879
Speaker 2: and one for beating cupcakes.

538
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 3: And just real quick for the people out there that

539
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 3: might not understand the strength of schedule metrics, when you say,

540
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 3: like you know, to eighty two or something like that.

541
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 2: If your strength of schedule is you know, two eighty two,

542
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:33,679
Speaker 2: that's the combined winning percentage of all of the teams

543
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 2: that you face. So if you're a team, if you're

544
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:38,120
Speaker 2: you know, the teams that you face are ten and

545
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 2: thirty out of forty games, they've won ten. They're you know,

546
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 2: your strength of schedule would be two fifty. You know,

547
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 2: they've ten divided by forty, you know, and the Bills

548
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 2: are one of the lowest the forty nine ers or

549
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:51,920
Speaker 2: one of the or the lowest in the NFC, and

550
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 2: I'll be fading the lowest in all of the NFL

551
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 2: coming up next. Yeah.

552
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:00,280
Speaker 3: I love Sean McDermott, but I do it agree. I

553
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 3: think this line is a little coopy. I think it's,

554
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 3: you know, the Eagles coming off with a bad game

555
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 3: in prime time, you know, Rod three straight. People just

556
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,399
Speaker 3: don't really know what to think with this team for

557
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:13,199
Speaker 3: my third pick, and you know you do. You've been

558
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 3: doing it to me, So I'm gonna go back and

559
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 3: do it to you, which is take the opposite side

560
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 3: of a team that I know you want to take,

561
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:22,159
Speaker 3: and it's going to be the New England Patriots minus thirteen. Here. Listen,

562
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 3: I get it. They haven't played a good strength of schedule.

563
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 3: It's bottom five according to DVOA, but DVOA also adjusts

564
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 3: for strength to schedule, and the New England Patriots are

565
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:36,880
Speaker 3: still the best team by DVO in the National Football Weague.

566
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 3: And the reason for that, and the reason I'm comfortable

567
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 3: betting on this team at such a big number, because

568
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 3: I don't. It's pretty much the only team that I

569
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 3: would bet at this kind of number is because there's

570
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 3: certain times where you know everyone's using their power ratings

571
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 3: and their models and you have to be able to

572
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 3: kind of adjust for these these unprecedented kind of outlier

573
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 3: situations here. And I think a lot of people are

574
00:25:58,000 --> 00:25:59,919
Speaker 3: just going to say, hey, the Patriots defense is going

575
00:25:59,960 --> 00:26:02,439
Speaker 3: to regrets or whatnot, and it sure might. But the

576
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 3: bottom line is, we've never seen something like this, and

577
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,679
Speaker 3: I don't I'm not comfortable betting against him, and I'm

578
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,679
Speaker 3: damn sure comfortable betting on them because they've all had

579
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 3: one touchdown pass, eighteen interceptions, five yards per past attempt.

580
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 3: Now they're facing Baker Mayfield, who popping up on an

581
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,679
Speaker 3: injury report. You know, maybe he's been playing hurt, we

582
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 3: don't know, but he leaves the league in interceptions and

583
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 3: they've had their buyer ready. So you know, I was

584
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 3: really high on Mayfield earlier in you know, coming into

585
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 3: the year, I thought he would do really well with

586
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 3: the weapons. I think Freddy Kitchens is in a little

587
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,160
Speaker 3: bit over his head. And you know, there's again, there's

588
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,200
Speaker 3: two things when I'm betting on a side that I

589
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:38,480
Speaker 3: look for, and it's you know, what's the matchup in

590
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,320
Speaker 3: the past game look like, whether it's quarterbacks, whether it's

591
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 3: the defense is whatever, How is that going to play?

592
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:45,679
Speaker 3: Out and then what's the coaching matchup? And to me,

593
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,400
Speaker 3: New England has the advantage in both strength of schedule,

594
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 3: be damned. And if you look at it, Bill Belichick

595
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:54,439
Speaker 3: at home per bet Labs, when the Patriots are minus

596
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:58,399
Speaker 3: seventeen or less seventeen point favorites or less ninety fifty

597
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,880
Speaker 3: three and five against the spread, sixty three percent cover rate.

598
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 3: Belichick versus teams that are below five hundred sixty nine

599
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 3: forty and one against the spread also sixty three percent.

600
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,639
Speaker 3: So not a number that I usually like to get behind,

601
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:13,919
Speaker 3: but I feel good about the Patriots here. Baker Mayfield

602
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 3: just makes too many mistakes.

603
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 2: I'm going against you here. And just to hark from

604
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 2: that point, Yeah, the Patriots everywhere you look, no matter

605
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,640
Speaker 2: what metric you look at, they're going to be dominant.

606
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 2: I mean they're plus fourteen turnover margin through seven games.

607
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 2: Now part of that is lucky. You know, they've had

608
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 2: a couple of block punts and turnovers. There's always going

609
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 2: to be luck involved. And the plus fourteen I think

610
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:37,399
Speaker 2: is the highest through seven weeks since the six or

611
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:41,679
Speaker 2: five Bengals with Delta O'Neil, that team that where Carson

612
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 2: Palmagart Heart in the wildcard game versus Steelers. That's top

613
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 2: twenty five of all time, by the way through seven games.

614
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 2: If I've read a stat somewhere that said, if they

615
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 2: don't if their defense didn't come on the field at all,

616
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 2: I excuse me, if their offense didn't come on the

617
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 2: field at all all year, they'd be three to three

618
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 2: and one. So they just didn't come on the field

619
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 2: in se so, and the Browns are mine a six

620
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,159
Speaker 2: in turnover margin, twenty eighth in the NFL. I expect

621
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:09,239
Speaker 2: both of those to regress. You know, you know if

622
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:11,119
Speaker 2: the Browns, no matter what the base is, gonna have

623
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 2: one of the best turner marchers. They always do. You

624
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:14,399
Speaker 2: can look back since two thousand and one where he

625
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 2: doesn't turn it over, and they scheme very well defensively

626
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,640
Speaker 2: and now have a very talented defense. They're gonna lead

627
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 2: the NFL turner marcher. It's not going to be this great.

628
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 2: And the reason is they played no quarterbacks. They have

629
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 2: seven wins. Here are the seven quarterbacks to finish the games.

630
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 2: Darnald Falk, Daniel Jones with his entire team out on

631
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:35,160
Speaker 2: a short week. Cole McCoy, Ben Roethlisberger.

632
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 3: There you go.

633
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,520
Speaker 2: It is a good one. Josh Rosen and Matt Barkley.

634
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 2: Those quarterbacks that finished the game against the Patriots have

635
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 2: a combined three wins. Seven quarterbacks, three wins. Overall, those

636
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 2: teams are twelve and thirty two. They've played nobody. They've

637
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 2: played nobody with weapons. I saw have major question marks

638
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:55,640
Speaker 2: about this New England offense. They're getting away with it

639
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 2: because they're causing so many turnovers. But you have all

640
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,240
Speaker 2: these you know, they added new It will help eventually,

641
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 2: but it just came in on a short week. You know,

642
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 2: they have all these moving pieces at receiver, they're tight

643
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 2: ends and flux. They've lost a bunch of offensive linemen,

644
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 2: their full back, their running game you know hasn't been

645
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 2: as good as it's been in the past. You know,

646
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 2: you still have Tom Brady. You're still going to score.

647
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 2: But the offense is not an elite Patriots offense. They're

648
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 2: benefiting from the defense. The coaching, I'll give you Freddy Kitchens, Verusui,

649
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 2: a bunch of big as of mismatches you can get.

650
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 2: It is negated by the fact that New England is

651
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 2: on a short week and Cleveland's coming off of a bye, so,

652
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 2: you know, it's not like Bill Belichick has his full

653
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:34,240
Speaker 2: week to prepare for Mayfield. And what they what the

654
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 2: Patriots have been doing is cover zero blitzes. They're just saying, hey,

655
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 2: our three corners who are playing at an elite level grounded.

656
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 2: They played no quarterbacks, you know, mccordy, Jones, Gilmore and

657
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 2: then Harmon and mccordy at safety there, mccordy and Carmon

658
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 2: are coming up and they're just covering on the outside,

659
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 2: no safety help, and they're bringing tons of pressure. I

660
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 2: actually think that Baker Mayfield can have a successful week

661
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 2: against that defense. He needs just not think and get

662
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 2: rid of the fucking ball. That's what he's gonna have

663
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 2: to do this week. He's gonna have to say, I

664
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:07,840
Speaker 2: have one on one coverage with Beckham on the outside.

665
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 2: Hopefully Kitchens decides to play Higgins, you know, and Landry

666
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 2: in the slot. I got to get the ball out.

667
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 2: I gotta get the ball out quick. I gotta let

668
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 2: my receivers, who are by far the best group of

669
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 2: receivers the Patriots have seen this year, and he's got

670
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 2: to get the ball out. I also think that they

671
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 2: can have some success running the ball with Chubb, and

672
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 2: you know with all of these cover zero Blitzer, if

673
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 2: you just get to that second level with the speed

674
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 2: that Chubb has, I think he's going to hit a

675
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 2: couple of big plays. The brown special team has also

676
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 2: been better than the Patriots special teams this year. I

677
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 2: just think this is too many points. Good situational spot

678
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 2: for the Browns. Desperation spot after the buye they lose,

679
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 2: they fall to three games back in the division. The

680
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 2: Patriots haven't played anybody. These turnovers and their defense, they

681
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 2: can't possibly keep this up. This is eighty five Bears,

682
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,520
Speaker 2: two thousand Ravens territory, and this defense is the best

683
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 2: in the NFL. I've been saying it since Week one,

684
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 2: but it's not that good. This is the first quarterback

685
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 2: in group of weapons that they've played. I do think

686
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:02,840
Speaker 2: the Patriots lost some success in short passes and take

687
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 2: advantage of the Browns linebackers. Look the Patriot's going to score.

688
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 2: I just think thirteen is too many. Give me the Browns.

689
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's we'll see how it goes. I

690
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 3: think the Browns probably have a better shot. They need

691
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 3: they need to play good defense because again I just

692
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield. It's just been automatic mistakes. I mean every

693
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:22,479
Speaker 3: game he's thrown a pick. Three games he's thrown multiple picks.

694
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 3: If any team could confuse you and get you to

695
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 3: kind of make a mistake, I think it's the New

696
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 3: England Patriots.

697
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 2: So sure, we'll see.

698
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 3: How that one goes. Those were our against the spread

699
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 3: picks for this week's Sunday six pack. And now let's

700
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 3: jump into our favorite over under. Who you got this week?

701
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 3: We talked about it kind of an ugly swate, but

702
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 3: that usually does favorite some under.

703
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 6: So where you're going, Yeah, for this week, I'm not

704
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 6: going to be scared off last week of going to

705
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 6: you know, I played the Bears Saints under and there

706
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 6: were six you know, I think it was like three

707
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 6: nothing late in the first then there was there were

708
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 6: sixteen the first sixteen points of the game, where as

709
00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 6: a result of special teams plays, there's a kick return

710
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 6: for a touchdown, a punt block, a fumble that was

711
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 6: a field goal, and then the.

712
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 2: Game just got out of hand. And then you have

713
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 2: Trubisky actually driving his team down the field in garbage

714
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 2: time against prevent defense. Oh my god, who cares? Who cares?

715
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 2: But you know, I don't think you're gonna see those

716
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 2: same flukes this week. And if you do, look you

717
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 2: could take my money. I think the total should be

718
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 2: under forty, just like you saw the Bears and Saints

719
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 2: total last week. But because of that Bears game, I

720
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 2: think it's a little inflated here. It's moved up from

721
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,479
Speaker 2: forty to forty one. I liked the under forty one.

722
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 2: I've always said this before. The Chargers are the slowest

723
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 2: team in the NFL. They take absolutely forever to snap

724
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 2: the ball. They're a complete snail. Rivers will wait until

725
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 2: the playlofs down at one and then it'll snap the ball.

726
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 2: I actually believe the Redskins are slower as of right

727
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 2: down neutral seconds for playing the Chargers are second. They're

728
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 2: like thirty three point four to nine, and the Redskins

729
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 2: are like thirty four point seven to one. So you

730
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 2: have that going for you. And then on the other

731
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 2: side of the ball, the Bears offense, they're slow to

732
00:32:57,240 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 2: their bottom six or seven in the NFL.

733
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 3: Mister Brisky can't think fast.

734
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he stinks, and I'm saying all and no

735
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 2: matter what you look at, he's absolutely terrible and were

736
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 2: people were making fun of him. They had four point

737
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 2: seven yards per tenp last week it was at three

738
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 2: point three until like a couple of late garbage drives.

739
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 2: Run the ball. Either they can't run the ball, but

740
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 2: you can run the ball a little bit against the Chargers.

741
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 2: And from everything I read this week, right or wrong,

742
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 2: and I actually think it's right. I'm not one that

743
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:28,720
Speaker 2: says run the ball, run the ball, run the ball

744
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 2: every play, but the Bears might be better off doing

745
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 2: that with Mitch Trubisky, and especially against the Chargers. The Chargers,

746
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 2: you know, they have some injuries in the secondary, but

747
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 2: they're still better against the pass than the run. You also,

748
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 2: I think that they could have some success throw into

749
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 2: their backs, some nice easy throws for Trubisky. The Chargers

750
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 2: really struggle in that aspect as well. But I think

751
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 2: all you heard was Naggie all week say we need

752
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 2: to run. I know we need to run. I mean

753
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 2: last week, I don't care how progressive you are with

754
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 2: Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. If you run the ball five

755
00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 2: times with your backs five times, that's it in the

756
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 2: entire game. And then you let Mitch Trubisky throw fifty

757
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 2: four times and I know it's inflated because of the

758
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 2: last couple of drives, but still was way out of

759
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 2: what So after all the media pressure, right or wrong,

760
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 2: I think Maggie's going to bend to it and you're

761
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:15,959
Speaker 2: going to see a heavy dose of Montgomery. Now. Look,

762
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 2: one of the things that gives me confidence in this

763
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 2: is that in the second half, and everything went wrong

764
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 2: for the Bears that gay, but in the second half

765
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 2: they went two tight ends Montgomery in the backfield for

766
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 2: the first play of the second half, and it was like,

767
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 2: all right, we're going heavy run and then Montgomery fumbled

768
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 2: it and then we never saw him again, and then

769
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:33,319
Speaker 2: you know, then they got out of hand and it

770
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 2: wasn't really a game where you can run the ball.

771
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,799
Speaker 2: That showed that He's like, all right, I can't really

772
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 2: trust Mitch t Bissy can't even make these simple rpo

773
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:42,759
Speaker 2: throws that are too wide open guys. I think they're

774
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 2: going to have to run the ball. I think that

775
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 2: their defense is going to show up. Their defense is

776
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 2: still really good, but their offensive line struggles. There are

777
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:52,319
Speaker 2: run games not going to be explosive. Mitch Trubisky's not

778
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 2: going to be explosive. I think this is just a

779
00:34:55,040 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 2: really really ugly rock fight between two teams that a

780
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:04,280
Speaker 2: loss pretty much ends their season. Now you might say

781
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:07,840
Speaker 2: this Charger season is already over now the Bears. I

782
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:09,840
Speaker 2: think it is because the Bears are in a division

783
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 2: that is that has two elite teams and it's going

784
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:13,440
Speaker 2: to be tough for them if they dropped to three

785
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 2: to four. But you might say with the Chargers, well

786
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:18,320
Speaker 2: they're two and five. Well that doesn't mean any of

787
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:20,759
Speaker 2: the Chargers. The Chargers start two and five a lot,

788
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:23,840
Speaker 2: or you know, two and five, one and four, and

789
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 2: then they all of a sudden, you know, get on

790
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:27,239
Speaker 2: a roll. But if they go to two and six,

791
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,359
Speaker 2: goodnight and you can kiss them good bye. I can't

792
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,879
Speaker 2: really see either offense doing much. I like the under here.

793
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:35,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's the right cause, I mean it's

794
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:38,400
Speaker 3: the Bears. It's scary for them because we say we

795
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 3: can sit here and say they can run the ball.

796
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:41,319
Speaker 3: But I wrote and I wrote about this in our

797
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 3: in our Action Network preview for this game, like, don't

798
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:46,719
Speaker 3: be surprised if the Saints cover or even win the

799
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 3: game again, because the Bears just can't run the ball

800
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:53,840
Speaker 3: because not only because they haven't been giving Montgomery attempts.

801
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 3: But their offensive line it's so bad. I mean it came.

802
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:59,360
Speaker 3: I think they came into that game last and adjusted lineyards,

803
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 3: they only ran three times, so now they're twenty ninth.

804
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 3: But they're running backs averaging three point oh yard to

805
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 3: carry barely over the Mendoza line. I mean, it's like

806
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 3: this side of Cincinnati might be the worst O line

807
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 3: in the league. So I think that that is the

808
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 3: right call there.

809
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 2: I mean, they have a guy named Coward of their

810
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 2: offensive line. How could get off with Plumby. But but

811
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 2: I do think they're going to try to run at

812
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:18,840
Speaker 2: a ton, which is even better, so it'd be a

813
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:19,839
Speaker 2: ton of punts in this game.

814
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 3: Yeah. And speaking of trying to run it a ton

815
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 3: for my underpick, because that's really what you're usually looking

816
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 3: for in these overs tend to be a little bit

817
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 3: inflated because the public tends to bet overs more and

818
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 3: those lines go up half point point whatever or not.

819
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:34,520
Speaker 3: But going with the under forty three and a half

820
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 3: in Denver, Indye, I think this is these are two

821
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:39,279
Speaker 3: teams that do want to run the ball a lot.

822
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:41,440
Speaker 3: We saw Denver. They they you know, they became a

823
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:44,680
Speaker 3: seller at the deadline and shipped off Emmanuel Sanders. I

824
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 3: think that just suggests that they're gonna wan on Royce

825
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,440
Speaker 3: streaming and Philip Wins even more, and the Colts are

826
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 3: happy to kind of do the same as well as

827
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 3: they're you know in positive game script with Marlon Mack

828
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 3: and you know, maybe they work in Wilkins. But I

829
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 3: think this Coat defense a little bit underrated. They've they've

830
00:36:58,200 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 3: had some struggles, but looks like they're gonna get Movie

831
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 3: Hooker back. And this is a well schemed defense that

832
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:06,160
Speaker 3: a little bit similar to Buffalo, not necessarily the scheme itself,

833
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 3: but they don't like to let up plays down the field,

834
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 3: so they'll usually have three defensive backs dropping all the

835
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,880
Speaker 3: way back plays some cover three and they won't give

836
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:15,360
Speaker 3: up big plays. I don't think the Broncos are in

837
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:17,279
Speaker 3: a position to make many big plays. And on the

838
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 3: other end, you know the Broncos, you know, they have

839
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 3: some deficiencies. We saw that come out against Matt Moore,

840
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 3: but that was, you know, all in all, just I

841
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 3: think a more talented supporting cast. I think the Colts

842
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:28,399
Speaker 3: are going to play a little bit different and read

843
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:29,920
Speaker 3: just doesn't run the ball for whatever reason. You know,

844
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:31,439
Speaker 3: even with Matt Moore in there last week, he didn't

845
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 3: run the ball. You know, they were up, you know,

846
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 3: by twenty points, and he's still out there, Matt Moore

847
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 3: throwing it around. I think this game script plays out

848
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 3: totally different. So I think the Colts have the edge

849
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 3: here and I think if the game goes the way

850
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 3: they want it to, which I think it will at home,

851
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 3: I think this game goes under the total right now

852
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:48,240
Speaker 3: for both of our picks. It seems like the money

853
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 3: isn't a direction that we're leaning. For the Chargers and Bears,

854
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 3: fifty five percent of the bets are on the over,

855
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 3: but only twenty seven percent of the money is on

856
00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:01,600
Speaker 3: the over. And then in Denver, in you know, sixty

857
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 3: nine percent of the bets, but eighty nine percent of

858
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 3: the money is on the under. So some pretty big

859
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:08,880
Speaker 3: discrepancies there. Of course, you can check out those percentages

860
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 3: in the Action Network app. And now it's time to

861
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 3: move on to our weekly teaser segment.

862
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:19,120
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

863
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 3: For this segment, we do a standard six point two

864
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 3: team teaser, which essentially means you get six extra points

865
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 3: for each of your picks. So if it's a favorite,

866
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:29,359
Speaker 3: they have to win by six fewer points, and if

867
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:31,480
Speaker 3: it's an underdog, they get to lose but by six

868
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:34,160
Speaker 3: more and you exchange that for a slight We reduced

869
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:37,720
Speaker 3: payout at most sportsbooks, so pretty popular kind of bets.

870
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 3: We've been struggling these last couple weeks. We got to

871
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 3: get back on the right track. Stock who you got

872
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 3: this week?

873
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:44,400
Speaker 2: All right? For my tease, I'm going first. I'm teasing

874
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,160
Speaker 2: the Bucks up from two and a half to eight

875
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 2: and a half, and I'm also teasing the Texans down

876
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 2: from six and a half to a half point. I

877
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:54,919
Speaker 2: don't see how the Texans lose this game at home,

878
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 2: awful loss agains A Raider seems got to be exhausted

879
00:38:57,560 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 2: by now. Just never at home. But more important, I

880
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:02,200
Speaker 2: said this last week with the Packers, and I should

881
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 2: have played the Packers because it doesn't matter if you

882
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:06,800
Speaker 2: can't pressure Aaron Rodgers and the Raiders get no pressure.

883
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 2: They have no one, didn't get pressure at all, Like

884
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:11,839
Speaker 2: it's insane to me. They just there's nobody, and then

885
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:14,839
Speaker 2: they can't really cover on the back end. So if

886
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:17,080
Speaker 2: you do that against de Sean Watson at home, whether

887
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:20,200
Speaker 2: it's those receivers. You can't get pressure and you can't cover.

888
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, the Raiders are doing some

889
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:25,840
Speaker 2: good things against the run. They've been a lot better.

890
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 2: Their offensive line is really underrated, you know, and they've

891
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:31,800
Speaker 2: been run blocking and pass blocking. Trent Brown, who was

892
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 2: out last week, is a hell of a right tackle.

893
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 2: You know, they have a really solid center in Hudson

894
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:41,359
Speaker 2: at Incognito at guard. It's it's a solid offensive line.

895
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:44,160
Speaker 2: Then obviously Jacobs, you know, who got a little banged up.

896
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 2: You know he with him running behind that offensive line.

897
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:52,320
Speaker 2: But now Jacobs is you know, he's not fully healthy.

898
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 2: Trent Brown isn't fully healthy. Uh So, you know, I

899
00:39:56,640 --> 00:40:00,400
Speaker 2: just don't think that the Raiders can keep up with

900
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 2: the Texans, who just you know, Watson's gonna shred them.

901
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:06,919
Speaker 2: You can't get pressure and you can't cover. Good luck

902
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:11,000
Speaker 2: against Hopkins and coutsin Stills and company. It's just it's

903
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:12,840
Speaker 2: not going to work out. So give me them. And

904
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 2: then on the other side, Bucks Titans, probably a lower

905
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 2: scoring game, Bucks off of buy and much needed buy.

906
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:21,959
Speaker 2: What I really like about this matchup is in Todd

907
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:25,359
Speaker 2: Bowles's three to four with his personnel, they shut down

908
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:28,319
Speaker 2: the run right, and they're only going up two point

909
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:31,839
Speaker 2: nine yards per carry that leads the NFL. They also

910
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:34,800
Speaker 2: will get pressure. You can really can't throw to your backs,

911
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:37,839
Speaker 2: but they're vulnerable in the back end. I don't think

912
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:40,680
Speaker 2: Ryan Tannehill and these Titans receivers can take advantage of that.

913
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 2: So and again, I don't see this game being more

914
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:46,440
Speaker 2: than a touchdown either way. So give me the Bucks,

915
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 2: who I think match up well with the Titans offense

916
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 2: obviously had the Winston factor, which is why I feel

917
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 2: safe teasing it. So give me the Bucks plus eight

918
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 2: and a half and then the Texans minus a half

919
00:40:57,040 --> 00:40:58,320
Speaker 2: at home. I don't see them losing at home to

920
00:40:58,360 --> 00:40:59,000
Speaker 2: the Raiders here.

921
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you know. One of the stats that

922
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:04,439
Speaker 3: surprised me NFL next Gen stats, Deshaun Watson is near

923
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 3: you know, the top of the league, well essentially the

924
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 3: bottom of the week in aggressiveness, which essentially means he's

925
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 3: not throwing in the tight windows, which tells me that

926
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:12,719
Speaker 3: he's really seeing the field as well. And if you

927
00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:14,839
Speaker 3: can't pressure him, he's going to find the open guy

928
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:16,759
Speaker 3: and make the right throw, so.

929
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 2: Or he'll be like, all right, I'm taking off here

930
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:20,440
Speaker 2: and running for this first down, and it's not a

931
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 2: good matchup for the Raiders day.

932
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:24,720
Speaker 3: It's not. And yeah, I'm going with the the Bucks

933
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:27,319
Speaker 3: too as well, and I'm going with the Eagles. So

934
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:30,279
Speaker 3: Bucks to eight, five Eagles to you know, seven and

935
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 3: a half. I think he kind of hit most of

936
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 3: the points. The Bucks run defense. That that just screws

937
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 3: with what the Titans want to do. And you know,

938
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:39,360
Speaker 3: you get into eight and a half. So if Winston

939
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:41,400
Speaker 3: happens to throw a pick six or something, as long

940
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:42,799
Speaker 3: as you go to throw five or six of them,

941
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:46,400
Speaker 3: which is always possible, you know, I feel pretty good

942
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:48,279
Speaker 3: about it. I think the Bucks probably have a decent

943
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 3: shot of winning that football game. Titans shouldn't have even

944
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 3: won last week against the Chargers either, and then the Eagles.

945
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:56,440
Speaker 3: Same thing you already hit on it. Just as good

946
00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:58,920
Speaker 3: as Buffalo has been and as bad as Philly has looked,

947
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 3: you look up and Philly is actually still rated the

948
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 3: better overall team in DVOWA, which does adjust excuse me

949
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:07,719
Speaker 3: for strength of schedule. Dallas is a little better than

950
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:09,520
Speaker 3: I expected. I think they were a little healthier than

951
00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 3: I expected. Not trying to overreact too much to that.

952
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 3: Last game, you know, came on primetime. Everyone sees the

953
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 3: Bills five and one record, A lot of respect for

954
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:19,160
Speaker 3: Sean McDermott, but season Philly up to seven and a

955
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:20,879
Speaker 3: half for a Buffalo team that tends to not win

956
00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:22,759
Speaker 3: games big, which is why I think my only hit

957
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:24,400
Speaker 3: last week was betting on the Dolphins. So you know,

958
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 3: it was a weird week for me anyway. But you know,

959
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:29,279
Speaker 3: this Buffalo team just not really built to win big

960
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 3: in a game of teams that are a little more

961
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:33,319
Speaker 3: evenly matched than we think. I feel good with the

962
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 3: Eagles at seven and a half. Now, let's get into

963
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:39,360
Speaker 3: our underdog money line parlay.

964
00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 7: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

965
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:49,479
Speaker 7: money line parlay, all right.

966
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 3: So this segment, we each pick an underdog on the

967
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:56,520
Speaker 3: money line, we combine it into a parlay bet, and

968
00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 3: we look at the odds and hopefully we hit. So

969
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:02,279
Speaker 3: stuck starts, were going with your underdog this week?

970
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we're four to three on the ear,

971
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 2: which is damn good. But like, yeah, well for for

972
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 2: moneyline parlays too, it's really good. But let's get back

973
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:12,759
Speaker 2: when we haven't hit the last couple weeks so yeah,

974
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 2: trying to get back on track here. I don't really

975
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 2: love anything, you know, So I decided to go with old,

976
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:21,920
Speaker 2: reliable and fade Mitch Trubisky and desperation game. That's it.

977
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:22,760
Speaker 2: That's my reasoning.

978
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:25,360
Speaker 3: It's probably the right play. I mean, the Chargers have

979
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:27,399
Speaker 3: just charged, as you mentioned, three weeks in a row,

980
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:30,399
Speaker 3: Philip Rivers in these spots tended to be overrated because

981
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 3: this team always does that, and so underrated excuse me,

982
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 3: so probably a shark call that I don't think many

983
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 3: people will be on after. If anyone bet on the

984
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:40,440
Speaker 3: Chargers of these last few weeks, it's just you're probably

985
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 3: not on it. For me, I'm going with the team

986
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 3: I picked at the top and the six pack, and

987
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 3: that's the Carolina Panthers. They're plus two ten, so I

988
00:43:47,239 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 3: like the number there. I think again, I think they

989
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:52,000
Speaker 3: have a pretty decent shot of not only covering the spread,

990
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 3: but winning this game. I think this game is a

991
00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:55,840
Speaker 3: little bit more evenly matched than we think, and the

992
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:57,480
Speaker 3: forty nine Ers are a little bit banged up. They

993
00:43:57,480 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 3: haven't been blowing teams out of the water these last

994
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 3: couple of weeks, and I think the Browns have just

995
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:03,799
Speaker 3: been screwing with a lot of people, to be honest

996
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 3: in terms of how we look at everyone else, because really,

997
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 3: when everyone started to take note of the forty nine ers,

998
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 3: then they blew out the Browns, and then you know,

999
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 3: they end up covering against the Rams, who also weren't

1000
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 3: as good as we thought, and you know, then they

1001
00:44:15,600 --> 00:44:17,960
Speaker 3: played the kind of low scoring game against Washington. So

1002
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 3: I think this is a spot where you might see

1003
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:22,080
Speaker 3: Sam Franz louse for the first time. Plus two ten

1004
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:24,799
Speaker 3: combined with the Chargers at plus one to eighty that

1005
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,480
Speaker 3: actually would pay out seven hundred and sixty eight dollars

1006
00:44:27,600 --> 00:44:29,600
Speaker 3: on a one hundred dour bet, so one hundred hours

1007
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 3: you'd get eight sixty eight back if this hits. So

1008
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 3: hopefully we get back on the right track for this week.

1009
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:38,439
Speaker 3: Let's quickly jump into the best of the rest, which

1010
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:40,719
Speaker 3: is all the games that didn't make it into any

1011
00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:42,840
Speaker 3: other segment. All right, So we'll start off with the

1012
00:44:42,840 --> 00:44:45,400
Speaker 3: Seattle Seahawks in this line looks like it's off the board.

1013
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 3: Still don't know about the health of Matt Ryan, but

1014
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:51,120
Speaker 3: Seahawks three and a half point favorites in Atlanta. Total

1015
00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:53,960
Speaker 3: of fifty four of the early bets eighty three percent

1016
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 3: were on the Seahawks, but again this nay reopen at

1017
00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:58,799
Speaker 3: a different number. Stuck anything here, Yeah, I mean all

1018
00:44:58,840 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 3: depends on Matt Ryan.

1019
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:02,359
Speaker 2: And even if Ryan does play, I don't want any

1020
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:04,400
Speaker 2: interest in this game. I don't want any interest of

1021
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:07,359
Speaker 2: the on the Falcons. This team looks like it has

1022
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 2: no life. They're sitting at one in six. You know,

1023
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:12,960
Speaker 2: their offense will probably do some things each week, but

1024
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 2: their defense inspires nope confidence. This is a complete pass

1025
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:16,800
Speaker 2: for me this game.

1026
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:19,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I mentioned this last week, but if the

1027
00:45:19,360 --> 00:45:22,640
Speaker 3: line reopens, will probably reopen because Matt Ryan is out

1028
00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:25,120
Speaker 3: and it would be more in favor of Seattle. But

1029
00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 3: something to keep in mind, Dan Quinn, when Atlanta is

1030
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 3: a three or more point underdog, he is five and

1031
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 3: nine all time, but he failed the covers last eight.

1032
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:38,560
Speaker 3: You know, that kind of speaks to the issues going

1033
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:41,359
Speaker 3: on there when they're most Sometimes you talk about teams

1034
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:43,200
Speaker 3: that they can't get up, when you know they kind

1035
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:45,320
Speaker 3: of played down in competition with Atlanta, HiT's like the opposite.

1036
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:47,839
Speaker 3: It's like, oh, we're an underdog, you know, and they

1037
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:50,440
Speaker 3: just don't show up to these games. And so it's

1038
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:53,400
Speaker 3: it's kind of rough for them right now. Cincinnati against

1039
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 3: the Rams in London. Rams thirteen point favorites, seventy seven

1040
00:45:57,239 --> 00:45:59,319
Speaker 3: percent of the bets, ninety six percent of the money

1041
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 3: on the Rams total at forty nine, with sixty nine

1042
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 3: percent of the bets on the over, but sixty four

1043
00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 3: percent of the money on the under. So that's a

1044
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:09,480
Speaker 3: sharp versus square disagreement. What are your thoughts on this one?

1045
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:12,239
Speaker 2: Stuff? Look, I still think the Rams have their flaws,

1046
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:14,399
Speaker 2: but I mean, you want to talk about a flawed team,

1047
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:16,960
Speaker 2: that's the bit's the Bengals. I mean, you saw what

1048
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 2: they did against the Jags oh and six last week,

1049
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:21,839
Speaker 2: and they have so many injuries and their secondary, their

1050
00:46:21,840 --> 00:46:24,920
Speaker 2: offensive line is miserable. I'm not laying their team with

1051
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:26,759
Speaker 2: the Rams here in London, but as sure as hell

1052
00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 2: not back in since the total pass.

1053
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:31,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think the reason that a lot of

1054
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:32,680
Speaker 3: people are on the or at least some of the

1055
00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:35,120
Speaker 3: big money is on the overs. Zach Taylor will play fast.

1056
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 3: That's one thing the Bengals have done. So It's interesting

1057
00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 3: because I think both like they both know how to

1058
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:42,160
Speaker 3: play offense. So it's just the Bengals O line has

1059
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:43,239
Speaker 3: been so bad that I don't know if you can

1060
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:45,399
Speaker 3: bet on an over with this team right now?

1061
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:47,960
Speaker 2: What do you think about the Saints.

1062
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:51,439
Speaker 3: Arizona Cardinals going to New Orleans? Drew Brees questionable to play.

1063
00:46:51,560 --> 00:46:55,759
Speaker 3: Seems like he's leaning towards playing sixty two percent of

1064
00:46:55,800 --> 00:46:58,359
Speaker 3: the bets, fifty eight percent of the money on New

1065
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 3: Orleans as a ten and a half point favor the

1066
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 3: total at forty nine, with fifty six percent of the

1067
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:06,040
Speaker 3: bets but sixty six percent of the money on the

1068
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:07,040
Speaker 3: under in that one.

1069
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it comes down to who's gonna play

1070
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:13,239
Speaker 2: for New Orleans. Look, I can't New Orleans has taking

1071
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 2: all my money this year because now I've almost adjusted

1072
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:18,360
Speaker 2: Teddy Bridgewater to like a point within Drew Brees.

1073
00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 3: I don't know, he's twenty seven against the spread.

1074
00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:23,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know this year as of right now, I'd

1075
00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:26,800
Speaker 2: have the Saints a one point difference if Breeze plays.

1076
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:28,600
Speaker 2: I don't, I don't. I don't even trust my numbers,

1077
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:32,239
Speaker 2: but it's true. I have this line around ten, like

1078
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:34,480
Speaker 2: I have it at like ten and a half if

1079
00:47:34,719 --> 00:47:37,160
Speaker 2: Breeze plays nine and a half of Bridgewater plays, So

1080
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:40,240
Speaker 2: I'm not betting it either way, the Saints have owned

1081
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 2: my soul this year. But yeah, apparently Teddy Bridgewater just

1082
00:47:44,520 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 2: everything I've seen this year, almost close to Drew Brees.

1083
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:48,080
Speaker 2: It makes no sense.

1084
00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:50,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I honestly I took a page out of your

1085
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:52,719
Speaker 3: book last week. I'm sitting here looking, I think, and

1086
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 3: I'm like, you know, Teddy Bridgewater, mitchter Bisky, no offensive

1087
00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:58,480
Speaker 3: line ended up going with the Saints that paid off.

1088
00:47:58,560 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 3: I don't know how Teddy Bridgewater it does not loose

1089
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:02,680
Speaker 3: against the spread, but it seems to be a thing

1090
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:03,359
Speaker 3: we'll see.

1091
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:06,439
Speaker 2: It seems so easy to cover the Saints, especially without Kamara,

1092
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 2: Like you just double Thomas and.

1093
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:11,480
Speaker 3: Then yeah you can't he goes in the spot. It's

1094
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 3: like it's just harder to double guys on the slot

1095
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:15,319
Speaker 3: with the two way go like you can. You can

1096
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:17,359
Speaker 3: do things zone wise like bracket and do all these

1097
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:20,040
Speaker 3: you know, double triple vice. But in reality, if he

1098
00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 3: wants to run like a five yard route in the slot,

1099
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 3: you're not really doubling them, you know what I mean.

1100
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:26,239
Speaker 2: It's sixteen game pace with Bridgewaters one hundred and thirty

1101
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 2: six catches the Saints.

1102
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:29,920
Speaker 3: They've lost what now, four times since the started last year.

1103
00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:31,400
Speaker 3: One of them was in week seventeen and one of

1104
00:48:31,400 --> 00:48:33,480
Speaker 3: them was on a blone call like Sean Payton is

1105
00:48:33,480 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 3: turning into like the poor Like this whole organization is

1106
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:38,960
Speaker 3: just turning into like the poor Man's Patriots, And it

1107
00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:39,680
Speaker 3: was really good.

1108
00:48:39,800 --> 00:48:42,240
Speaker 2: Give them that their defense is playing really well. Another

1109
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 2: aspect I could ever figure out what them is their secondary.

1110
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:46,759
Speaker 2: But their secondary is playing a lot more consistent this

1111
00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:48,520
Speaker 2: year like last year. One week they'd be great, the

1112
00:48:48,560 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 2: other next week, and then their special teams are really

1113
00:48:51,280 --> 00:48:53,719
Speaker 2: good too, So yeah, and then they're coaching. So give

1114
00:48:53,760 --> 00:48:54,800
Speaker 2: credit to the organization.

1115
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:56,839
Speaker 3: Yeah. A lot of points though, So probably a stay

1116
00:48:56,840 --> 00:49:00,239
Speaker 3: away for me. New York Giants going to Detroit eight

1117
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:02,840
Speaker 3: plus seven fifty three percent of the tickets on Detroit,

1118
00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:05,320
Speaker 3: but only thirty one percent of the money. I'd probably

1119
00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 3: wean the Giants here. I think they're gonna go a

1120
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:10,279
Speaker 3: little bit kind of under the radar. They haven't really

1121
00:49:10,280 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 3: had everyone healthy in a while, especially with Daniel Jones, let's.

1122
00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:21,400
Speaker 1: Hear it for Danny Dimes.

1123
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:25,319
Speaker 3: The Lions. You know, they've been better than I think

1124
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:27,959
Speaker 3: their record is too. But if you look at teams

1125
00:49:27,960 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 3: that haven't been covering, like the Giants, a team that's

1126
00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 3: thirty percent or less against the spread versus a team

1127
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:35,560
Speaker 3: that's been better than fifty percent or better against the spread,

1128
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:38,439
Speaker 3: like the Lions. From Week six on, when when people

1129
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:40,680
Speaker 3: start to kind of bet, you know, based on what

1130
00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:42,839
Speaker 3: happened the week before and how their bets turned out.

1131
00:49:42,920 --> 00:49:45,279
Speaker 3: Those teams that haven't been covering aka the Giants are

1132
00:49:45,320 --> 00:49:47,520
Speaker 3: one sixty four, one O four and nine sixty two

1133
00:49:47,520 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 3: percent against the spread. Detroit questions about the run game

1134
00:49:50,760 --> 00:49:54,600
Speaker 3: Giants six hardest schedule. I'd ween Giants here. If I

1135
00:49:54,600 --> 00:49:55,440
Speaker 3: had to make a pick.

1136
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 2: I'd deleen Giants as well. I also look at the

1137
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:01,000
Speaker 2: over over forty nine. I think with out carry On Johnson,

1138
00:50:01,000 --> 00:50:02,680
Speaker 2: who hasn't been able to run the ball anyway, but

1139
00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:04,360
Speaker 2: the Blood Lions can't really run the ball, but especially

1140
00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 2: without carry On Johnson, and against this Giant secondary, I

1141
00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:10,840
Speaker 2: think you're going to see a very heavy pass attack

1142
00:50:11,640 --> 00:50:13,640
Speaker 2: for the Lions. And then the Giants on the other

1143
00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:15,839
Speaker 2: side of the ball, they have what looks like they'll

1144
00:50:15,840 --> 00:50:18,840
Speaker 2: have their full repertoire of offensive weapons, which they haven't

1145
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:22,719
Speaker 2: had in a while. And this Lion's defense, which I love,

1146
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:24,759
Speaker 2: just isn't the same I mean they traded digs. They're

1147
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:27,319
Speaker 2: banged up in the middle, sleighs now banged up, and

1148
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:29,200
Speaker 2: then the Lions don't get any pressure at all. So

1149
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 2: I think Jones will have time and the Giants can

1150
00:50:32,040 --> 00:50:35,520
Speaker 2: score two. So I think you see a shootout of

1151
00:50:35,520 --> 00:50:36,040
Speaker 2: the dome there.

1152
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:38,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's one of those underrated games that probably could

1153
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:40,960
Speaker 3: be profitable in some way if if you dig deeper.

1154
00:50:41,200 --> 00:50:43,400
Speaker 3: So that does it for the best of the rest.

1155
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:46,560
Speaker 3: And now it's time for our Survivor pool Pick of

1156
00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:47,200
Speaker 3: the week.

1157
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 1: One pick, one chance to advance survivor.

1158
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:59,200
Speaker 3: All right, so I am the only survivor in this pool.

1159
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:02,839
Speaker 3: I think dow with thee Oh yeah, I mean I've

1160
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:04,200
Speaker 3: bet on him on the money line, so I feel

1161
00:51:04,239 --> 00:51:09,399
Speaker 3: your paint. But so far I've used the Seahawks, Texans, Cowboys, Chargers, Eagles, Patriots,

1162
00:51:09,440 --> 00:51:11,520
Speaker 3: and the Bills. This week, I'm gonna go with the

1163
00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 3: Minnesota Vikings. They're huge favorites. Thursday Night short week tends

1164
00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:17,839
Speaker 3: to always favor the better team, So feel good about

1165
00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:20,360
Speaker 3: the Vikings. You know, if you couldn't use the Vikings,

1166
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:22,239
Speaker 3: you already use them. Who'd you go with?

1167
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:25,400
Speaker 2: Stuck? I go back to the matchup here, I need

1168
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:27,759
Speaker 2: to just start betting Texans game. Looking here, I think

1169
00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:30,000
Speaker 2: of nine to zero Texans games this year. You know,

1170
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:32,319
Speaker 2: if you look at the I haven't used them on

1171
00:51:32,360 --> 00:51:35,160
Speaker 2: this podcast until I was eliminated. You know, they're at

1172
00:51:35,160 --> 00:51:37,759
Speaker 2: the Jags, but then they're at the Ravens. They're a

1173
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:41,239
Speaker 2: home against the Colts and then the Patriots. You know,

1174
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 2: you could use them against at home against the Broncos late,

1175
00:51:44,120 --> 00:51:47,080
Speaker 2: but I know I would actually maybe go with the

1176
00:51:47,719 --> 00:51:49,640
Speaker 2: if you don't want to go with the real obvious pick.

1177
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 2: I don't see how the Texans lose this game at

1178
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:51,920
Speaker 2: home to the Raiders.

1179
00:51:52,239 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it scares me a little, just because

1180
00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:56,200
Speaker 3: the Raiders, who do they beat the Bears, although that

1181
00:51:56,480 --> 00:51:59,920
Speaker 3: looking in retrospect, probably not as impressive, and they beat somebody,

1182
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 3: didn't they that that we didn't expect them to beat.

1183
00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:04,200
Speaker 2: They beat the Broncos to start the year, and then

1184
00:52:04,200 --> 00:52:05,480
Speaker 2: they beat they one at the Colts.

1185
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 3: That's that's a solid win for them. But yeah, I mean,

1186
00:52:08,239 --> 00:52:08,880
Speaker 3: I just don't.

1187
00:52:08,680 --> 00:52:11,560
Speaker 2: Know why Watson. But even if they're up late, like

1188
00:52:11,640 --> 00:52:13,760
Speaker 2: the Textans are going to score right.

1189
00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:15,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I mean I think, yeah, Minnesota, if you

1190
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:19,080
Speaker 3: have them, use them here Washington, short week. You know

1191
00:52:19,160 --> 00:52:22,439
Speaker 3: should just favors the Vikes, but you need another one.

1192
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:24,759
Speaker 3: I mean, if there's always the Patriots, but you know there,

1193
00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:27,520
Speaker 3: like you said, there's you probably should have used them

1194
00:52:27,560 --> 00:52:29,200
Speaker 3: already and if you haven't, you might want to save

1195
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:31,880
Speaker 3: them with It's another sixteen point favorite on the on

1196
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:35,319
Speaker 3: the sleeve. So that does it for another episode of

1197
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:38,320
Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast. You can follow Stucky on Twitter

1198
00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:42,040
Speaker 3: at Stucky Too, follow me at Chris Raybond, and our

1199
00:52:42,080 --> 00:52:44,080
Speaker 3: handles are the same on the Action Network up so

1200
00:52:44,160 --> 00:52:46,680
Speaker 3: follow us there to get live odds, in game win

1201
00:52:46,800 --> 00:52:50,560
Speaker 3: probabilities and track all your bets for free.

1202
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:51,719
Speaker 2: And we're out.

1203
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:52,920
Speaker 3: Let's get this money.

1204
00:52:53,239 --> 00:53:02,480
Speaker 2: Go nuts, go, I think happen