WEBVTT - Josh Marshall & Ron Brownstein

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<v Speaker 1>Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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<v Speaker 1>where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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<v Speaker 1>today's best minds.

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<v Speaker 2>And President Biden called Donald Trump's Madison Square Garden rally

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<v Speaker 2>simply embarrassing.

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<v Speaker 3>Pretty good assessment.

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<v Speaker 2>We have such a great show for you today, Talking

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<v Speaker 2>points memos. Josh Marshall stops by to parse why Trump's

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<v Speaker 2>Madison Square Garden rally was so insane.

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<v Speaker 3>Then we'll talk to.

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<v Speaker 2>CNN political analyst and writer for The Atlantic Ron Brownstein

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<v Speaker 2>about what he is seeing in early voting. But first,

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<v Speaker 2>the news, a lot of news.

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<v Speaker 4>So Molly, what was miss during the Trump rally at

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<v Speaker 4>MSG was actually really important was a CNN interview with

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<v Speaker 4>Tom Holman, who you and I covered in our Project

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<v Speaker 4>twenty twenty five documentary for being one of the architects

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<v Speaker 4>of the immigration policy in the next Trump administration if

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<v Speaker 4>they get in.

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<v Speaker 2>He is the former Ice head and this is his

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<v Speaker 2>plan for mass deportation of a documented immigrants. And let

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<v Speaker 2>me just say, it's not like he hid this. He

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<v Speaker 2>went and said this on sixty eight minutes.

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<v Speaker 5>Why should a child who is an American citizen have

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<v Speaker 5>to pack up and move to a country that.

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<v Speaker 6>They don't know because their parent absolutely into the country

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<v Speaker 6>illegally had a child knowing he was in the country legally.

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<v Speaker 6>So he created that crisis.

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<v Speaker 5>While Homan ran ice.

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<v Speaker 3>In what became one of the most controversial policies of

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<v Speaker 3>the Trump administration, at least five thousand migrant children were forcibly.

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<v Speaker 5>Separated from their parents.

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<v Speaker 3>Who were prosecuted for crossing the border illegally.

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<v Speaker 5>You've been called the.

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<v Speaker 7>Father of Trump's family separation policy.

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<v Speaker 3>How does that sit with you?

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<v Speaker 6>It's not true. I didn't write the memory of a

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<v Speaker 6>separate families. I signed a memo. Why did I sign, am?

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<v Speaker 6>I was hoping to save lives? Why you and I

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<v Speaker 6>are talking right now? Child's going to die on the

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<v Speaker 6>board it so we thought, maybe we prosecute people, they'll

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<v Speaker 6>stop coming.

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<v Speaker 5>Maybe and if Trump wins the second term.

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<v Speaker 6>I don't know of any formal policy, but they're talking

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<v Speaker 6>about family separations.

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<v Speaker 7>Should it be on the table I.

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<v Speaker 6>Think needs to be considered.

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<v Speaker 5>Absolutely so.

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<v Speaker 2>Anyway, the point is they're planning mass deportation, and we

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<v Speaker 2>know this because they're telling us on sixty minutes.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, I think it's very jarring that he's basically

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<v Speaker 4>saying that it doesn't matter if a member or your

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<v Speaker 4>family's here a legal or not, that they're just going

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<v Speaker 4>to rip you apart. And I want to make a

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<v Speaker 4>point too that you know, Trump has said that he

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<v Speaker 4>doesn't know these Project twenty twenty five people. He's repeatedly

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<v Speaker 4>on video said I'm hiring this guy to do this,

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<v Speaker 4>So there's no wiggling around this bullshit.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, he worked in the Trump admin and he

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<v Speaker 2>worked on Project twenty twenty five, and he's planning to

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<v Speaker 2>deport But I think the scariest part of all of

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<v Speaker 2>this is they're deporting boas documented and under documented immigrants.

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<v Speaker 2>So this will mean that if you have a family,

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<v Speaker 2>and we saw a lot of reporting about this, most

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<v Speaker 2>families you'll have one illegal member of the family. Well

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<v Speaker 2>now it will be that everyone else in the family

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<v Speaker 2>will get deported.

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<v Speaker 4>So Molly jd Vance, you know, Charisma King, here's some

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<v Speaker 4>thoughts about how people should feel about the remark from

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<v Speaker 4>Tony Hinchcliff at the Garden saying that Puerto Rico is

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<v Speaker 4>a floating island of garbage.

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<v Speaker 2>So I just want to pause for a second and

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<v Speaker 2>talk about this for one more second. So Republicans from

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<v Speaker 2>Florida and from a lot of states to the Puerto

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<v Speaker 2>Ricans are freaking out right. There are half a million

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<v Speaker 2>Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania, the must win state of Pennsylvania,

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<v Speaker 2>so they are all freaking out. Okay, now listen to

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<v Speaker 2>jd Vance's very sensitive response to Puerto Rican people being

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<v Speaker 2>offended by having their island be called a pile of garbage.

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<v Speaker 8>I've heard about the joke.

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<v Speaker 9>I haven't actually seen the joke that you mentioned, but

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<v Speaker 9>I think that it's telling that Kamala Harris's closing message

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<v Speaker 9>is essentially that all of Donald Trump's voters are Nazis,

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<v Speaker 9>and you should get really pissed off about a comedian

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<v Speaker 9>telling a joke that is not the message of a

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<v Speaker 9>winning campaign, and most importantly, it's not the message of

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<v Speaker 9>a person who's fit to be the president of the

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<v Speaker 9>United States of America. And my own view on this is,

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<v Speaker 9>look again, I haven't seen the joke. You know, maybe

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<v Speaker 9>it's a stupid racist shoke, as you said, maybe it's not.

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<v Speaker 5>I haven't seen it.

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<v Speaker 9>I'm not going to comment on the specifics of the joke,

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<v Speaker 9>but I think that we have to stop getting so

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<v Speaker 9>offended at every little thing in the United States of America.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm just I'm so over it.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>So if you're bad Bunny or j Loo and you're

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<v Speaker 2>offended by the fact that the comedian a Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 2>Broop's rally called Puerto Rico a pile of garbage, well

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<v Speaker 2>Evans has a message for you.

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<v Speaker 3>Get over it.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, we should say Trump only won Pennsylvania by point

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<v Speaker 4>seventy two percent and Biden won by one point seven percent,

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<v Speaker 4>but Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania are three point eight percent

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<v Speaker 4>of the population, so a lot of movement could happen there.

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>And also everyone is in damage control about this comment

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<v Speaker 2>except Jade Evans, who was telling them to get over

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<v Speaker 2>it because they are being two pc and sensitive when

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<v Speaker 2>they're offended that their island was maligned by a racist.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I think we should just say that fifty

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<v Speaker 2>cent the performer was offered three million dollars to perform

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<v Speaker 2>at Donald Trump's rally, and he said, no, three million

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<v Speaker 2>dollars a lot of money. It's a lot of money,

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<v Speaker 2>and it shows how toxic the Trump rallies are because

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<v Speaker 2>he was he was offered three million dollars to perform

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<v Speaker 2>at the Madison Square of Bardon rally and he said no,

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<v Speaker 2>which good on him, and then also good on you know.

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<v Speaker 2>We've been waiting to see if George W. Bush will

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<v Speaker 2>endorse Harris, but we have seen that his daughter Barbara

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<v Speaker 2>is actually canvassing for Harris. Another thing that is really

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<v Speaker 2>shows just how unusual the Trump election is that the

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<v Speaker 2>fact that pretty much both on the left and the

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<v Speaker 2>right have aligned to support Harris.

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<v Speaker 4>Somali in both Washington and Oregon. Drop boxes we're set

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<v Speaker 4>on fire and Phoenix police have the suspected custody. What

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<v Speaker 4>are you seeing here?

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<v Speaker 2>This has happened in a couple states, someone who's unhinged

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<v Speaker 2>setting fire to drop boxes. We're seeing a lot of this,

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<v Speaker 2>and look, we're of course we're seeing this. Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 2>is encouraging it. Here's a guy who's setting fire to

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<v Speaker 2>drop boxes in Arizona, but we saw somebody doing it

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<v Speaker 2>in Washington State, and I'm sure we'll see more of it.

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<v Speaker 2>And that's why we all have to be super vigilant

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<v Speaker 2>and careful. It's really just exactly what we don't want.

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<v Speaker 2>It's exactly what has not happened, and it's the kind

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<v Speaker 2>of thing that only happens once Donald Trump, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump is encouraged his kind of behavior, so none

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<v Speaker 2>of us should be surprised.

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<v Speaker 4>Somali. Mister Trump a man who's known for reading the

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<v Speaker 4>room really well. He said the massive Square Garden rally

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<v Speaker 4>was a LoveFest.

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<v Speaker 2>Funny because you'll remember he said that the January sixth

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<v Speaker 2>insurrection was a love fest. They love him, right, Donald

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<v Speaker 2>Trump calls it a love fest when his people do

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<v Speaker 2>stuff to protect or to elevate him, or to storm

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<v Speaker 2>the capitol. That is Donald Trump's idea of a love fest,

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<v Speaker 2>but it is no one else's idea of a love fest.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, one might think he's only concerned with the reaction

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<v Speaker 4>towards him when they were clapping for him, so he saw.

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<v Speaker 5>It as good enough.

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<v Speaker 2>Right. But you know, he did do this press or

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<v Speaker 2>at mar Lago today as a way of trying to,

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<v Speaker 2>I think, enact a little damage control after the Sunday

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<v Speaker 2>Madison Square Garden rally went so off the rails.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think.

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<v Speaker 2>That that question where he said it was a love fest,

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<v Speaker 2>that's another really good example of how Trump is sort

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<v Speaker 2>of unable to help himself. Like this smart answer there

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<v Speaker 2>would have been like there were some thing's got out

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<v Speaker 2>of hand, but we love the people of Puerto Rico,

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<v Speaker 2>and we know that they're Americans just like everyone else.

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<v Speaker 2>But instead he just was like there were no bad jokes.

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<v Speaker 2>It was a love fest. So I do think like

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<v Speaker 2>this between him and JD. Vans, they really have handled

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<v Speaker 2>this just about as poorly as anyone could handle it.

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<v Speaker 2>And it's hard for me to imagine being a Puerto

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<v Speaker 2>Rican American and not feeling like these people do not

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<v Speaker 2>have my best interests in that sounds right, which of

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<v Speaker 2>course they don't. Josh Marshall is the editor of Talking

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<v Speaker 2>Points Memo. Welcome back to the Fast Politics Josh Marshall.

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<v Speaker 5>Thanks for having me again.

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<v Speaker 3>Here we are six days from.

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<v Speaker 2>The election that will side whether or not we have

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<v Speaker 2>elections anymore discussed.

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<v Speaker 10>I was telling someone I have been trying to embrace

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<v Speaker 10>the uncertainty because I think that's where we are right,

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<v Speaker 10>it's uncertain. I wrote a piece that there's a difference

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<v Speaker 10>between the closest election ever and the most uncertain election ever,

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<v Speaker 10>and I'm not sure it's that close.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, we don't know. I think that's a really good point.

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<v Speaker 10>Yeah, it's high uncertainty, and look at a certain level,

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<v Speaker 10>if it's super close, it's very uncertain. That's kind of

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<v Speaker 10>you know, that's kind of the way it works. But

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<v Speaker 10>I do think and every election, every high stakes election,

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<v Speaker 10>contains a lot of uncertainty. But I do think that

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<v Speaker 10>there are factors that make this one more uncertain, more

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<v Speaker 10>possibilities than usual, and a lot of those have to

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<v Speaker 10>do with polling, with trying to understand what happened in

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<v Speaker 10>the sort of the mechanics of the twenty twenty election,

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<v Speaker 10>in terms of the COVID pandemic, changes in polls.

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<v Speaker 5>All this kind of stuff.

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<v Speaker 10>When we look at these polls that I think, as

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<v Speaker 10>we all know basic say, it is like literally tied

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<v Speaker 10>to the extent that things can be tied. There's a

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<v Speaker 10>lot of assumptions that go into those polls. That's always

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<v Speaker 10>the case with polls, but there's probably even more this time.

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<v Speaker 10>People have had to make assumptions about what the electorate

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<v Speaker 10>looks like and stuff like that, and those could be mistaken,

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<v Speaker 10>and those could end up giving us a result that

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<v Speaker 10>swings a few points in either direction, and obviously, in

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<v Speaker 10>our day and age, a few points is like you know,

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<v Speaker 10>a landslide.

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<v Speaker 5>There's a lot of uncertainty, are real uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, And I think what's really.

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<v Speaker 2>Important here when we talk about this is that Trump

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<v Speaker 2>historically gets at an electorate that is a non voting electorate,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's why he won in twenty sixteen. He was

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<v Speaker 2>able to re summons those people in twenty twenty, though

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<v Speaker 2>he didn't win. And now you know, it's almost a

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<v Speaker 2>decade later, we are all fucking tired.

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<v Speaker 3>The man is still running.

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<v Speaker 2>And again the strat is is still the same, double

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<v Speaker 2>down on the really offensive staff and hope that the

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<v Speaker 2>low propensity ones and twos come.

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<v Speaker 10>Out, right, Yeah, for better or worse, we know at

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<v Speaker 10>many levels, you know, Donald Trump calls the shots. That's

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<v Speaker 10>what the people who love him love about him. I

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<v Speaker 10>think that is real about his campaigns, right. And one

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<v Speaker 10>of the things that you know, it's been a lot

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<v Speaker 10>of talk for the last year that he finally has

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<v Speaker 10>Chris Lasovita and Susie Wiles and there you know, they

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<v Speaker 10>have figured out how to tame him, not tame him

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<v Speaker 10>from being fairal and crazy, but make him seem normal, yes,

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<v Speaker 10>to run a real campaign. I think what we have

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<v Speaker 10>seen in these final weeks is that he's running a

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<v Speaker 10>He's running a Trump campaign there too, but he's going

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<v Speaker 10>to double down. He's not a reach out kind of person.

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<v Speaker 10>He's a double down kind of person. And he's going

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<v Speaker 10>to try to get hold of his people and get

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<v Speaker 10>hold of his people who maybe are ready to be

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<v Speaker 10>his people, but weren't his people yet. You know, this

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<v Speaker 10>whole idea that you know, there are people out there

0:12:04.960 --> 0:12:07.319
<v Speaker 10>who love Trump but they've just never voted before, and

0:12:07.920 --> 0:12:10.280
<v Speaker 10>get them to vote. There's you know, there's more people

0:12:10.480 --> 0:12:14.240
<v Speaker 10>he does that. He wants to, you know, demoralize the opposition.

0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:16.719
<v Speaker 10>A lot of head faking and stuff like that. So

0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:18.720
<v Speaker 10>it's he's a double down kind of guy.

0:12:19.200 --> 0:12:22.760
<v Speaker 2>Right, So Sunday he had this Madison Square Garden rally.

0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:27.360
<v Speaker 2>This is part of these weird rallies he's doing, like

0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:32.280
<v Speaker 2>the one he did in California. He had one in Coulchella, right,

0:12:32.320 --> 0:12:36.119
<v Speaker 2>Couldchella Valley, This one where all these people got stranded.

0:12:36.559 --> 0:12:39.280
<v Speaker 2>He had another one in another blue state. And the

0:12:39.320 --> 0:12:42.960
<v Speaker 2>idea here is that they are control fundraising and they

0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:48.920
<v Speaker 2>create this atmosphere of winning. But this one athlete spare

0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:55.319
<v Speaker 2>of Puerto Ricans endorsing Kama Harris, including Bad Bunny, j

0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:58.120
<v Speaker 2>Lo and Ricky Martin discuss.

0:12:58.160 --> 0:13:00.400
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, it's you know, it's hard, always hard to know,

0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:03.720
<v Speaker 10>you know, what celebrity endorsements mean. I mean, I would

0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:06.440
<v Speaker 10>have been a little surprised if Jlo endorsed Trump. So

0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:09.160
<v Speaker 10>you know, if you had told me she endorsed Harris

0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:12.560
<v Speaker 10>six months ago, I would have been utterly unsurprised. But

0:13:12.880 --> 0:13:17.480
<v Speaker 10>I do think this has broken through in a significant way.

0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:21.360
<v Speaker 10>I think it's clearly broken through with people in the

0:13:21.400 --> 0:13:24.520
<v Speaker 10>Puerto Rican community, which a lot of people think, ah,

0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:26.680
<v Speaker 10>in New York, Puerto Ricans who live in New York. Obviously,

0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:29.600
<v Speaker 10>lots of Puerto Rican Americans. I mean, there's no such

0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:31.880
<v Speaker 10>thing as a Puerto Rican American. Pert Ricans are Americans

0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:35.000
<v Speaker 10>part of the United States. Many live in Florida. A

0:13:35.120 --> 0:13:37.679
<v Speaker 10>significant number live in Pennsylvania.

0:13:37.800 --> 0:13:39.320
<v Speaker 3>So half a million.

0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:43.199
<v Speaker 2>Did you know half a million Puerto Ricans lived in Pennsylvania.

0:13:43.240 --> 0:13:43.640
<v Speaker 3>I did not.

0:13:44.240 --> 0:13:44.720
<v Speaker 5>I did not.

0:13:45.000 --> 0:13:47.360
<v Speaker 10>I don't know how much that's concentrated in the eastern

0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:50.160
<v Speaker 10>part of the state or Pittsburgh or just kind of everywhere.

0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:54.320
<v Speaker 10>Doesn't matter though, right, yeah, exactly, it doesn't matter for

0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:58.120
<v Speaker 10>these purposes. I do think that that is the most

0:13:58.200 --> 0:14:00.160
<v Speaker 10>kind of eye popping remark. There's a lot, a lot

0:14:00.160 --> 0:14:02.960
<v Speaker 10>of things this guy said, everybody knew going in this

0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:05.480
<v Speaker 10>is going to you know, they're setting themselves up for

0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:08.800
<v Speaker 10>sort of a replay of the first go around in

0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:09.840
<v Speaker 10>nineteen thirty nine.

0:14:10.360 --> 0:14:13.120
<v Speaker 5>Right, what they did is sort of a Nazi rally.

0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:16.280
<v Speaker 3>The German American booned yet booned.

0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:19.040
<v Speaker 10>Yes, yes, I think the whole thing has kind of

0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:22.560
<v Speaker 10>broken through a bit, just in the sense that it's

0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:24.920
<v Speaker 10>not a shock to anybody that there are a lot

0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:29.000
<v Speaker 10>of like racists and weird people around Donald Trump, but

0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:31.440
<v Speaker 10>from the perspective of the Trump campaign that you don't

0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:34.040
<v Speaker 10>want that to be your closing argument, right, like, we're

0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:37.640
<v Speaker 10>super racist. And I think this could have some impact

0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:40.440
<v Speaker 10>on the results of the election because it's you know,

0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.600
<v Speaker 10>because it seems to be very close, and you know,

0:14:43.640 --> 0:14:45.440
<v Speaker 10>there's a lot of other things that this and other

0:14:45.480 --> 0:14:49.880
<v Speaker 10>people there said. It's just everything works best for Trump

0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:54.160
<v Speaker 10>when they keep the sort of you know, the really

0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:58.200
<v Speaker 10>fairal degenerates kind of in the back room, you know,

0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:01.840
<v Speaker 10>with a with a direct lawn to the base. But

0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:03.920
<v Speaker 10>when you bring them out in front of normal people,

0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:06.400
<v Speaker 10>things get a little shaky. And it wasn't a great

0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:08.520
<v Speaker 10>time to bring them out in front of normal people.

0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:13.720
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and It's funny because it's like Elon has devoted

0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:17.800
<v Speaker 2>himself to helping the Trump campaign in any way possible.

0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:21.440
<v Speaker 2>You could make the supposition that this might be connected

0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:24.080
<v Speaker 2>to this recent reporting from the Wall Street Journal, which

0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:26.400
<v Speaker 2>on the news side does amazing stuff and has all

0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:30.120
<v Speaker 2>this reporting about how Elon has talked to Vladimir Putin

0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:34.200
<v Speaker 2>more than once, right, which technically is someone who sits

0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:37.120
<v Speaker 2>on a pile of government contract and has very high

0:15:37.320 --> 0:15:39.360
<v Speaker 2>security clears is pretty problematic.

0:15:39.440 --> 0:15:42.440
<v Speaker 3>So you could see where he might have some motivation there.

0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:46.200
<v Speaker 2>But he does seem and he didn't maybe seem this

0:15:46.240 --> 0:15:49.080
<v Speaker 2>way as much four years ago. He does seem to

0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:52.280
<v Speaker 2>be one of that crowd of this sort of deep

0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:55.400
<v Speaker 2>and dark white national I mean, you know, I won't

0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:57.480
<v Speaker 2>say he's a white nationalist, but he certainly does not

0:15:57.840 --> 0:15:59.560
<v Speaker 2>seem uncomfortable with Stephen Miller.

0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:00.240
<v Speaker 5>Yeah.

0:16:00.280 --> 0:16:03.320
<v Speaker 10>I mean, he may not be, but all his friends are, right.

0:16:03.480 --> 0:16:06.960
<v Speaker 10>I mean, you know, maybe in a way it doesn't matter.

0:16:07.240 --> 0:16:09.720
<v Speaker 10>It's what he says and his friends and who he

0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:11.880
<v Speaker 10>gives money to and all that kind of stuff. I mean,

0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:14.640
<v Speaker 10>I think that Elon Musk in general is kind of

0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:20.240
<v Speaker 10>overdetermined in the sense that he's just a weird on

0:16:20.320 --> 0:16:24.920
<v Speaker 10>several levels, guy who's very impulsive, who clearly has some

0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:29.120
<v Speaker 10>issues in his personal life that have driven some of this.

0:16:29.760 --> 0:16:32.680
<v Speaker 10>And I get the sense that he's just you know,

0:16:32.960 --> 0:16:38.240
<v Speaker 10>sometimes people get really into bling, that's their new thing,

0:16:38.840 --> 0:16:43.160
<v Speaker 10>and fascism is Elon's new bling, and he's really into

0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:46.600
<v Speaker 10>it right now. And it wouldn't one hundred percent surprise

0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:50.360
<v Speaker 10>me if it was something he wasn't as into in

0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:52.920
<v Speaker 10>a few years. And again, I'm not like excusing him.

0:16:53.120 --> 0:16:56.920
<v Speaker 10>He's just an impulsive, weird person and he's fixated on this.

0:16:57.400 --> 0:17:00.760
<v Speaker 2>It seems like a celebrity who's got you know, who

0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:03.160
<v Speaker 2>has got a cause that they're sort of interested in

0:17:03.400 --> 0:17:06.240
<v Speaker 2>but might not be interested in a couple of years.

0:17:06.440 --> 0:17:09.200
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I think it's the capricious nature I've been

0:17:09.240 --> 0:17:12.119
<v Speaker 2>so struck by as someone who you know, grew up with,

0:17:12.520 --> 0:17:15.080
<v Speaker 2>you know, not so famous, but a little famous people

0:17:15.119 --> 0:17:18.080
<v Speaker 2>and also a lot of people who had some money.

0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:21.800
<v Speaker 2>Was that what this election shows so deeply is that

0:17:21.920 --> 0:17:26.040
<v Speaker 2>the corrosive facts that wealth and power have on the

0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:30.040
<v Speaker 2>human soul. I mean, I am just stopped by the

0:17:30.119 --> 0:17:32.760
<v Speaker 2>people who come out and you know, they really are

0:17:32.800 --> 0:17:36.320
<v Speaker 2>their tax bracket. Trump ists. Right, they may or may

0:17:36.359 --> 0:17:39.320
<v Speaker 2>not believe, but maybe they believe that, maybe they don't.

0:17:39.359 --> 0:17:42.880
<v Speaker 2>Who cares again, but they have you know, decided that

0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:46.280
<v Speaker 2>the tax brackets, may you know, to pay less taxes,

0:17:46.320 --> 0:17:49.480
<v Speaker 2>they will go along with white nationalism and possibly the

0:17:49.560 --> 0:17:50.600
<v Speaker 2>end of democracy.

0:17:50.840 --> 0:17:54.280
<v Speaker 10>In some ways, it is a very much a thing

0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:59.080
<v Speaker 10>for a certain kind of liberal to think, like, well,

0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:02.400
<v Speaker 10>is he actually white nationalists? Is actually this? Do they

0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:05.200
<v Speaker 10>really believe this? As is often the case in life,

0:18:05.280 --> 0:18:07.400
<v Speaker 10>it doesn't really matter what you believe, it's what you do.

0:18:08.400 --> 0:18:11.560
<v Speaker 10>And clearly these are people who, you know, if someone

0:18:11.960 --> 0:18:16.960
<v Speaker 10>came up to me and said, Hey, we're going to

0:18:17.680 --> 0:18:22.240
<v Speaker 10>go watch alligators have sex and then we're going to

0:18:22.320 --> 0:18:25.520
<v Speaker 10>cut their heads off and put their heads onto our

0:18:25.600 --> 0:18:27.879
<v Speaker 10>heads and dance around in the blood, I would say

0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:31.400
<v Speaker 10>that's so weird. I no matter how cool you are,

0:18:31.440 --> 0:18:35.000
<v Speaker 10>I can't. That's too weird for me. And you have

0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:37.920
<v Speaker 10>these people who it's not too weird for them.

0:18:38.200 --> 0:18:40.439
<v Speaker 3>I'm going to do this annoying thing and bring up

0:18:40.440 --> 0:18:40.959
<v Speaker 3>a tweet.

0:18:41.320 --> 0:18:43.439
<v Speaker 1>I hate it when people interview me and bring up

0:18:43.480 --> 0:18:46.320
<v Speaker 1>a tweet, But this I think is relevant because I

0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:47.720
<v Speaker 1>think it's a really important idea.

0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:50.119
<v Speaker 2>I'm going to read the tweet as very annoying. But

0:18:50.400 --> 0:18:52.400
<v Speaker 2>this is who Trump is, and this is what Trump

0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:52.879
<v Speaker 2>is them is.

0:18:52.920 --> 0:18:53.440
<v Speaker 3>But there's a.

0:18:53.400 --> 0:18:55.919
<v Speaker 2>Part of this that isn't widely known and this is

0:18:56.040 --> 0:18:59.160
<v Speaker 2>absolutely one hundred percent sure to a lot of reporters,

0:18:59.200 --> 0:19:01.120
<v Speaker 2>and that is that there are a lot of these

0:19:01.200 --> 0:19:06.080
<v Speaker 2>pop operatives I'm now you know, speaking stemborraneously and staffers

0:19:06.160 --> 0:19:09.560
<v Speaker 2>under thirty who are in fact to come from for

0:19:10.200 --> 0:19:13.879
<v Speaker 2>fin So explain that to our listeners and maybe with

0:19:13.920 --> 0:19:14.880
<v Speaker 2>a little more clarity.

0:19:15.240 --> 0:19:18.240
<v Speaker 10>So, oh right, So there's a series of online communities

0:19:18.320 --> 0:19:22.440
<v Speaker 10>that go back a number of years, and there places

0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:25.800
<v Speaker 10>where the in cells hang out and the white nationalists

0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:29.480
<v Speaker 10>hang out, and a lot of you know, hardcore racist,

0:19:29.680 --> 0:19:34.159
<v Speaker 10>far right things are just part of the vernacular and

0:19:34.200 --> 0:19:36.919
<v Speaker 10>that's that kind of world. And so they are online

0:19:36.960 --> 0:19:39.800
<v Speaker 10>spaces that have that four chan is one of them.

0:19:39.880 --> 0:19:44.359
<v Speaker 10>There's eight chan. There are used to be certain subreddits.

0:19:44.400 --> 0:19:47.440
<v Speaker 10>There's you know, just all these kind of places out there,

0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:52.040
<v Speaker 10>and there is a whole cadre of young Republican operatives

0:19:52.080 --> 0:19:55.919
<v Speaker 10>and staffers who not only have spent time there, but

0:19:56.320 --> 0:19:59.600
<v Speaker 10>in so many of the cases being there in the

0:19:59.640 --> 0:20:02.879
<v Speaker 10>sort of post game or gate that whole kind of world.

0:20:03.040 --> 0:20:06.600
<v Speaker 10>That's where they decided they were Republicans, or they decided

0:20:06.640 --> 0:20:08.840
<v Speaker 10>they were far right. The point is that that was

0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:13.840
<v Speaker 10>where they had their political awakenings. Basically, this isn't surprising necessarily,

0:20:14.200 --> 0:20:17.040
<v Speaker 10>but this kind of got on my radar because, you know,

0:20:17.160 --> 0:20:21.800
<v Speaker 10>I am in charge of this news publication and I'm

0:20:21.840 --> 0:20:25.760
<v Speaker 10>almost never the reporter. I'm seldom the immediate editor. But

0:20:25.840 --> 0:20:27.919
<v Speaker 10>in our big stories, I'll get brought in just to

0:20:28.000 --> 0:20:31.840
<v Speaker 10>kind of kick the tires and whatever. And in story

0:20:31.880 --> 0:20:35.200
<v Speaker 10>after story, sort of like, okay, the person who got

0:20:35.240 --> 0:20:37.600
<v Speaker 10>who's getting in trouble for their you know, for their

0:20:37.640 --> 0:20:41.160
<v Speaker 10>old tweets. Maybe maybe that person came from four chan,

0:20:41.560 --> 0:20:44.240
<v Speaker 10>but okay, turns out his boss started at four chan

0:20:44.359 --> 0:20:47.480
<v Speaker 10>two and like and and okay, here's the here's the

0:20:47.520 --> 0:20:51.280
<v Speaker 10>guy who is not as bad and he was.

0:20:51.359 --> 0:20:53.680
<v Speaker 5>A source for us. Wow, he's also from four chan.

0:20:53.880 --> 0:20:55.080
<v Speaker 5>Like wait, what's going on here?

0:20:55.520 --> 0:20:58.000
<v Speaker 10>And this would just keep happening again and again and

0:20:58.000 --> 0:21:00.800
<v Speaker 10>again and I and I realized that it was pervasive,

0:21:00.840 --> 0:21:03.480
<v Speaker 10>and not only in sort of like you know, the

0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:06.879
<v Speaker 10>you know, there's always like maybe a dozen members of

0:21:06.880 --> 0:21:09.359
<v Speaker 10>the House GOP Caucus are the ones who are constantly

0:21:09.400 --> 0:21:13.320
<v Speaker 10>getting in trouble, not just those people staffers for relatively

0:21:13.400 --> 0:21:17.280
<v Speaker 10>normal Republicans, you know. Also, and I think a lot

0:21:17.320 --> 0:21:22.240
<v Speaker 10>of people remember that during DeSantis's primary campaign, there were

0:21:22.240 --> 0:21:25.600
<v Speaker 10>a few times where his campaign would drop these these

0:21:26.040 --> 0:21:30.280
<v Speaker 10>you know, kind of viral videos and they had, you

0:21:30.320 --> 0:21:33.920
<v Speaker 10>know a lot of kind of like muscle bound dudes

0:21:34.480 --> 0:21:36.880
<v Speaker 10>in like swim trunks and.

0:21:38.359 --> 0:21:39.560
<v Speaker 5>A lot of stuff that.

0:21:39.440 --> 0:21:42.879
<v Speaker 10>To people outside of that world look pretty home erotic

0:21:43.240 --> 0:21:44.919
<v Speaker 10>and just a lot of kind of crazy stuff. And

0:21:45.119 --> 0:21:49.160
<v Speaker 10>this background of mine being somewhat involved in a lot

0:21:49.200 --> 0:21:52.760
<v Speaker 10>of our investigative stories, I got it immediately because I

0:21:52.840 --> 0:21:54.960
<v Speaker 10>know that like half the people, half the guys under

0:21:55.000 --> 0:21:57.880
<v Speaker 10>thirty on his campaign, they started out like on four

0:21:57.960 --> 0:22:01.000
<v Speaker 10>Chan and then like in cell message board, and that's

0:22:01.040 --> 0:22:03.840
<v Speaker 10>how they communicate. And it's only when you sort of,

0:22:03.960 --> 0:22:07.640
<v Speaker 10>you know, when a campaign drops that and everybody's sees it, like, dude,

0:22:07.640 --> 0:22:10.040
<v Speaker 10>what what is what did I just see? What did

0:22:10.040 --> 0:22:12.000
<v Speaker 10>I just see? So that's it's that whole thing. It's

0:22:12.080 --> 0:22:14.920
<v Speaker 10>very real and something that occurred to me a couple

0:22:15.000 --> 0:22:18.280
<v Speaker 10>days ago. It used to be that you scratch any

0:22:18.600 --> 0:22:22.560
<v Speaker 10>democratic campaign and either the candidate or the top people

0:22:22.840 --> 0:22:25.040
<v Speaker 10>they first met on the McGovern campaign. I mean, I'm

0:22:25.080 --> 0:22:26.800
<v Speaker 10>dating myself here a bit, but you know, back in

0:22:26.800 --> 0:22:30.200
<v Speaker 10>the nineties, the odds okay, and a decade from now

0:22:30.240 --> 0:22:32.600
<v Speaker 10>it's going to in Republican campaigns fortune it's going to

0:22:32.600 --> 0:22:34.680
<v Speaker 10>be oh yeah, yeah. We first worked together at four chan.

0:22:35.000 --> 0:22:37.440
<v Speaker 10>We first created a dank meme at four chan.

0:22:37.800 --> 0:22:40.640
<v Speaker 2>I wanted just interject for a minute because I think

0:22:40.640 --> 0:22:45.920
<v Speaker 2>this an important point that relates, which is JD. Bans

0:22:46.080 --> 0:22:50.520
<v Speaker 2>comes from that world, probably more so even than Ronda Sandis.

0:22:50.720 --> 0:22:53.239
<v Speaker 2>But what I think about I think about this a

0:22:53.280 --> 0:22:57.840
<v Speaker 2>lot because I saw him in that vice presidential debate,

0:22:57.880 --> 0:23:01.520
<v Speaker 2>which he did do better than Trim in that debate.

0:23:02.080 --> 0:23:06.639
<v Speaker 2>He is actually wildly unpopular. His favorability ratings are lower

0:23:06.680 --> 0:23:09.960
<v Speaker 2>than Donald Trump's. He struggles with really the same problem

0:23:09.960 --> 0:23:14.320
<v Speaker 2>that DeSantis does. Trump isn't without Trump brought to you

0:23:14.400 --> 0:23:18.639
<v Speaker 2>by someone who has the charisma of a you know,

0:23:18.880 --> 0:23:22.320
<v Speaker 2>of flat eyed Coke is not a winning message, right, Like.

0:23:22.400 --> 0:23:24.560
<v Speaker 2>Part of why Trump is able to get away with

0:23:24.560 --> 0:23:27.040
<v Speaker 2>this stuff is he was a celebrity for many years.

0:23:27.359 --> 0:23:31.119
<v Speaker 2>He makes it seem funny and not scary, you know,

0:23:31.200 --> 0:23:34.920
<v Speaker 2>whereas Jadie Vance. I mean, for example, the joke the

0:23:35.040 --> 0:23:39.240
<v Speaker 2>floating pile of garbage joke that we heard on Sunday.

0:23:39.440 --> 0:23:41.920
<v Speaker 2>Jad Vance said, why I didn't see it right, which

0:23:41.960 --> 0:23:44.840
<v Speaker 2>of course is ridiculous, and then he said, we should

0:23:44.880 --> 0:23:48.359
<v Speaker 2>be less offended by things. You know, this is obviously

0:23:48.600 --> 0:23:52.080
<v Speaker 2>well and like you tell that to these groups of

0:23:52.359 --> 0:23:55.280
<v Speaker 2>Puerto Ricans who are offended by having their country be

0:23:55.359 --> 0:23:58.800
<v Speaker 2>called garbage, that they should lighten up. I mean, like,

0:23:59.000 --> 0:24:00.879
<v Speaker 2>I don't think that's a wins.

0:24:01.280 --> 0:24:04.119
<v Speaker 10>No, it's not a winning message. And I have to

0:24:04.119 --> 0:24:08.879
<v Speaker 10>imagine that a lot of Democrats or Democratic operatives would say, like, Okay, cool,

0:24:08.960 --> 0:24:11.879
<v Speaker 10>we'll put together a commercial for it, a commercial based

0:24:11.920 --> 0:24:13.639
<v Speaker 10>on it. You dudes can run it, you can have

0:24:13.680 --> 0:24:15.280
<v Speaker 10>the copyright, let's get it everywhere.

0:24:15.400 --> 0:24:16.520
<v Speaker 5>I don't even think it's cynical.

0:24:16.640 --> 0:24:20.879
<v Speaker 10>A lot of Democrats are like, they are not upset.

0:24:21.280 --> 0:24:23.880
<v Speaker 10>They're like, hey, thanks for taking the mask off. It's

0:24:23.960 --> 0:24:24.800
<v Speaker 10>just the right time.

0:24:25.000 --> 0:24:27.159
<v Speaker 2>Let's let every you know, I mean, a week before

0:24:27.200 --> 0:24:28.840
<v Speaker 2>the election, it's a good time to do it.

0:24:29.040 --> 0:24:30.119
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, exactly.

0:24:30.160 --> 0:24:33.040
<v Speaker 10>And the thing is with Trump is that he's horrible,

0:24:33.240 --> 0:24:37.879
<v Speaker 10>but we don't understand him and cannot fight him effectively

0:24:37.960 --> 0:24:41.080
<v Speaker 10>if we don't understand he has a real charisma. It

0:24:41.119 --> 0:24:43.159
<v Speaker 10>may not be your kind of not you, Molly, but

0:24:43.359 --> 0:24:47.040
<v Speaker 10>you know, everybody's charisma. But that is what allows him to,

0:24:47.840 --> 0:24:50.840
<v Speaker 10>you know, kind of do these things and to an extent,

0:24:51.000 --> 0:24:53.159
<v Speaker 10>get away with them. And whereas you have someone like

0:24:53.240 --> 0:24:56.560
<v Speaker 10>JD Vance he says something, Oh yeah, kind of like

0:24:56.760 --> 0:25:00.720
<v Speaker 10>angry lonely cat ladies and just he he'll say something

0:25:00.760 --> 0:25:01.879
<v Speaker 10>and everything's just silent.

0:25:01.960 --> 0:25:04.760
<v Speaker 5>Everybody's like ooh, like no one likes you JD.

0:25:05.359 --> 0:25:08.760
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, No, I think that's right. We're in the home

0:25:08.880 --> 0:25:12.359
<v Speaker 1>stretch of whatever this is. But it does certainly seem

0:25:12.800 --> 0:25:16.000
<v Speaker 1>like a really important data play. Thank you, Josh Marshall.

0:25:16.320 --> 0:25:17.800
<v Speaker 5>All right, talk to you later.

0:25:18.560 --> 0:25:19.920
<v Speaker 7>Are you concerned.

0:25:19.440 --> 0:25:22.600
<v Speaker 1>About Project twenty twenty five and how awful Trump's second

0:25:22.680 --> 0:25:25.880
<v Speaker 1>term could be? Well, so are we, which is why

0:25:25.920 --> 0:25:28.680
<v Speaker 1>we teamed up with iHeart to make a limited series

0:25:28.760 --> 0:25:32.760
<v Speaker 1>with the experts on what a disaster Project twenty twenty

0:25:32.760 --> 0:25:35.760
<v Speaker 1>five would be for America's future. Right now, we have

0:25:36.080 --> 0:25:39.920
<v Speaker 1>just released the final episode of this five episode series.

0:25:40.040 --> 0:25:44.000
<v Speaker 1>They're all available by looking up Molly Jong Fast Project

0:25:44.000 --> 0:25:47.040
<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty five on YouTube, and if you are more

0:25:47.080 --> 0:25:50.840
<v Speaker 1>of a podcast person and not say a YouTuber, you

0:25:50.880 --> 0:25:53.320
<v Speaker 1>can hit play and put your phone in the lock

0:25:53.359 --> 0:25:55.280
<v Speaker 1>screen and it will play back just.

0:25:55.240 --> 0:25:56.120
<v Speaker 7>Like a podcast.

0:25:56.400 --> 0:25:59.720
<v Speaker 1>All five episodes are online. Now we need to educate

0:25:59.720 --> 0:26:02.879
<v Speaker 1>a Maria Workens on what Trump's second term would or

0:26:03.000 --> 0:26:04.360
<v Speaker 1>could do to this country.

0:26:04.480 --> 0:26:06.400
<v Speaker 7>So please watch it and spread the word.

0:26:08.880 --> 0:26:12.520
<v Speaker 2>Ron Brownstein is a senior political analyst for CNN and

0:26:12.640 --> 0:26:15.359
<v Speaker 2>a senior editor at The Atlantic.

0:26:16.240 --> 0:26:20.040
<v Speaker 1>Welcome back to Fast Politics, Ron Brownstein.

0:26:20.840 --> 0:26:22.960
<v Speaker 8>Ay, Molly, anything going on?

0:26:23.160 --> 0:26:25.960
<v Speaker 7>Nothing? Nothing? Not eight days until the election.

0:26:26.440 --> 0:26:26.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:26:26.920 --> 0:26:29.560
<v Speaker 1>So one of the many, many things I like about you,

0:26:29.880 --> 0:26:33.879
<v Speaker 1>besides the fact that you're so smart and so sane,

0:26:34.320 --> 0:26:37.040
<v Speaker 1>is that you also have been doing this for a

0:26:37.080 --> 0:26:40.760
<v Speaker 1>fairly long time, so you really know what this should

0:26:40.800 --> 0:26:41.240
<v Speaker 1>look like.

0:26:41.600 --> 0:26:43.280
<v Speaker 3>Okay, so what the fuck is going on?

0:26:43.400 --> 0:26:43.440
<v Speaker 5>Go?

0:26:45.000 --> 0:26:47.040
<v Speaker 11>Well, look, I mean I think you know, if you

0:26:47.080 --> 0:26:50.800
<v Speaker 11>look at the totality of the polling, clearly Trump gained

0:26:50.800 --> 0:26:54.800
<v Speaker 11>some ground in October. He hurt Harris with the ad

0:26:54.880 --> 0:26:58.200
<v Speaker 11>barrage but portraying her as week on crime, week on immigration,

0:26:58.400 --> 0:27:02.080
<v Speaker 11>and extreme on transgender rights. And you know, even before

0:27:02.119 --> 0:27:06.080
<v Speaker 11>the debate, one Republican said to me the Harris Trump debate,

0:27:06.119 --> 0:27:08.760
<v Speaker 11>one Republican said to me something that I think has

0:27:08.880 --> 0:27:12.199
<v Speaker 11>really borne out when they said, you know, if we

0:27:12.240 --> 0:27:13.960
<v Speaker 11>win this race, we're not going to win it through

0:27:13.960 --> 0:27:16.840
<v Speaker 11>the interactions between Harris and Trump, whether in the debate

0:27:16.920 --> 0:27:19.000
<v Speaker 11>or the daily news cycle, and we were reminded of

0:27:19.000 --> 0:27:21.679
<v Speaker 11>that again on Sunday, this person said, if we win

0:27:21.760 --> 0:27:24.080
<v Speaker 11>the race, it's going to be just by you know,

0:27:24.200 --> 0:27:27.359
<v Speaker 11>doing to her essentially what we do to Democratic candidates

0:27:27.400 --> 0:27:30.640
<v Speaker 11>in the Swing states since time immemorial, portraying them as

0:27:30.680 --> 0:27:33.560
<v Speaker 11>a you know, soft on crime and immigration and out

0:27:33.560 --> 0:27:36.520
<v Speaker 11>of touch liberal. And that campaign has been very powerful

0:27:36.560 --> 0:27:40.280
<v Speaker 11>and very pronounced, and clearly it has had some impact

0:27:40.640 --> 0:27:43.320
<v Speaker 11>on the national polling and even the polling and the

0:27:43.359 --> 0:27:45.520
<v Speaker 11>key swing states. But when it was all, you know,

0:27:45.640 --> 0:27:48.560
<v Speaker 11>now that we are in the final stretch, it's pretty

0:27:48.600 --> 0:27:52.960
<v Speaker 11>clear that even that offensive have not pushed at least

0:27:53.080 --> 0:27:56.200
<v Speaker 11>the former Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin

0:27:56.280 --> 0:27:59.160
<v Speaker 11>out of reach for her. And there are reasons to believe.

0:27:59.480 --> 0:28:03.639
<v Speaker 11>I think that she can still win those states even

0:28:03.680 --> 0:28:06.639
<v Speaker 11>with a smaller margin in the national popular vote than

0:28:06.640 --> 0:28:10.600
<v Speaker 11>Biden had, and maybe only as big a margin or

0:28:10.640 --> 0:28:13.800
<v Speaker 11>even slightly smaller in the national popular vote than Hillary

0:28:13.800 --> 0:28:15.920
<v Speaker 11>Clinton had. And we can talk about that the Sun

0:28:15.960 --> 0:28:19.200
<v Speaker 11>Belt states are murkier for her. Those are states where

0:28:19.560 --> 0:28:22.600
<v Speaker 11>non wide voters people of color are such a large

0:28:22.760 --> 0:28:26.879
<v Speaker 11>portion of the electorate that even marginal gains for Trump

0:28:27.040 --> 0:28:29.280
<v Speaker 11>in them could make all of those states tough. And

0:28:29.320 --> 0:28:34.280
<v Speaker 11>obviously North Carolina has been tougher Democrats anyway, But in Michigan, Pennsylvania,

0:28:34.359 --> 0:28:37.280
<v Speaker 11>and Wisconsin, which have always been in the most plausible

0:28:37.320 --> 0:28:40.560
<v Speaker 11>path to two seventy, not only for Biden but for her,

0:28:40.920 --> 0:28:43.920
<v Speaker 11>I think the race is well within the margin of error.

0:28:43.960 --> 0:28:46.280
<v Speaker 11>And as someone smarter than me said to me, you

0:28:46.320 --> 0:28:48.840
<v Speaker 11>know months ago, that means it is within the margin

0:28:48.880 --> 0:28:50.760
<v Speaker 11>of effort. You know, a lot of people are kind

0:28:50.800 --> 0:28:54.480
<v Speaker 11>of agonizing and you know, doom scrolling and checking polls

0:28:54.560 --> 0:28:58.000
<v Speaker 11>every hour. You know, if poles say that Michigan, Pennsylvania

0:28:58.040 --> 0:29:00.200
<v Speaker 11>with consin are with a point or even two points,

0:29:00.440 --> 0:29:03.720
<v Speaker 11>it really doesn't matter which way the pole says. What

0:29:03.760 --> 0:29:07.680
<v Speaker 11>it's really telling you is that the states will that

0:29:07.800 --> 0:29:10.240
<v Speaker 11>state will be decided by things that have not yet happened,

0:29:10.560 --> 0:29:14.760
<v Speaker 11>either interactions on the campaign trail, or perhaps even more important,

0:29:15.040 --> 0:29:18.520
<v Speaker 11>the quality of the campaign and organization that each side

0:29:18.520 --> 0:29:21.440
<v Speaker 11>can execute in the final days. So the way I

0:29:21.480 --> 0:29:24.120
<v Speaker 11>look at it, whatever happens in the sun belt. This

0:29:24.320 --> 0:29:29.120
<v Speaker 11>race is within reach for her through the rost belt Michigan, Pennsylvanus, Constant,

0:29:29.160 --> 0:29:31.080
<v Speaker 11>the three states Trump knocked out of the blue wall,

0:29:31.360 --> 0:29:34.280
<v Speaker 11>and it really is within the reach of either side

0:29:34.320 --> 0:29:35.080
<v Speaker 11>to bring this home.

0:29:35.360 --> 0:29:38.280
<v Speaker 1>Okay, now I'm going to ask you a question just

0:29:38.400 --> 0:29:41.040
<v Speaker 1>for me because I'm interested in it. This is a

0:29:41.120 --> 0:29:43.760
<v Speaker 1>brain tease. Okay, I'm going to read you a tweet.

0:29:43.960 --> 0:29:46.720
<v Speaker 1>This is something I'm obsessed with. Okay, Pole after poll

0:29:46.800 --> 0:29:51.360
<v Speaker 1>shows Harris leading among those that have already voted, even

0:29:51.480 --> 0:29:54.920
<v Speaker 1>narrowly in Florida. So these are exit polls. This is

0:29:54.920 --> 0:29:58.440
<v Speaker 1>the point this sky says. Unless I'm missing something, either

0:29:58.920 --> 0:30:02.400
<v Speaker 1>A polls are badly misreading this group, so.

0:30:02.280 --> 0:30:04.800
<v Speaker 7>The exit polling is wrong, which is possible.

0:30:04.800 --> 0:30:09.000
<v Speaker 1>Or b early voters are bluer than we think and

0:30:09.160 --> 0:30:12.280
<v Speaker 1>thus party affiliation is not really telling the story.

0:30:12.440 --> 0:30:13.560
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, I saw that too.

0:30:13.880 --> 0:30:19.240
<v Speaker 11>You know, I myself find early voting almost impossibly opaque.

0:30:19.280 --> 0:30:22.360
<v Speaker 1>And that's the conventional wisdom about early voting is that

0:30:22.440 --> 0:30:24.080
<v Speaker 1>it just doesn't tell you anything.

0:30:24.120 --> 0:30:27.520
<v Speaker 11>Really, it's not maybe not exactly that. It's as a

0:30:27.600 --> 0:30:30.760
<v Speaker 11>lay person, you do not have access to the full

0:30:30.880 --> 0:30:34.320
<v Speaker 11>layers of information. You need to see if there's any

0:30:34.360 --> 0:30:36.880
<v Speaker 11>signal in the noise, because you know, the number of

0:30:36.920 --> 0:30:40.200
<v Speaker 11>people from each party who vote early doesn't really tell

0:30:40.240 --> 0:30:44.320
<v Speaker 11>you that much if either or both parties are simply cannibalizing,

0:30:44.400 --> 0:30:47.200
<v Speaker 11>as the saying goes their day of voters and moving

0:30:47.280 --> 0:30:49.800
<v Speaker 11>them to early. You know, what you really need is

0:30:49.880 --> 0:30:54.520
<v Speaker 11>something that tells you how irregular voters, how many irregular

0:30:54.600 --> 0:30:55.560
<v Speaker 11>voters are coming.

0:30:55.360 --> 0:30:56.480
<v Speaker 8>Out for each side.

0:30:57.000 --> 0:31:00.400
<v Speaker 11>And there are people who do that kind of deep dive.

0:31:00.520 --> 0:31:03.280
<v Speaker 11>You know, Tom Bonyer may be more famously than anybody

0:31:03.280 --> 0:31:06.239
<v Speaker 11>else on the Democratic side who feel good about what

0:31:06.280 --> 0:31:09.520
<v Speaker 11>they are seeing in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and not

0:31:09.600 --> 0:31:11.440
<v Speaker 11>as good about what they are seeing in the sun

0:31:11.480 --> 0:31:14.320
<v Speaker 11>Belt a swing stick. So which kind of you know,

0:31:14.320 --> 0:31:18.080
<v Speaker 11>which kind of fits into this general that I'm offering here.

0:31:18.480 --> 0:31:21.040
<v Speaker 11>I also have been struck by that polling. And look,

0:31:21.200 --> 0:31:24.600
<v Speaker 11>I mean, there is reason to believe. I think it

0:31:24.600 --> 0:31:28.360
<v Speaker 11>would not be crazy if Kamala Harris won a higher

0:31:28.400 --> 0:31:34.400
<v Speaker 11>percentage of previously Republican leaning independence, particularly college educated independence,

0:31:34.400 --> 0:31:37.520
<v Speaker 11>than Biden did for two big reasons. January sixth had

0:31:37.560 --> 0:31:40.160
<v Speaker 11>not yet happened, and Dobbs had not yet happened. In

0:31:40.200 --> 0:31:42.800
<v Speaker 11>the twenty twenty election. And you know, as I wrote

0:31:42.840 --> 0:31:46.160
<v Speaker 11>this week, I think it is highly likely that Harris

0:31:46.200 --> 0:31:49.840
<v Speaker 11>not only can, but probably must run better than Biden

0:31:49.880 --> 0:31:55.240
<v Speaker 11>did in these big white collar inner suburbs around Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee,

0:31:55.320 --> 0:31:59.959
<v Speaker 11>but also around Madison, Pittsburgh, and Grand Rapids. I mean,

0:32:00.480 --> 0:32:04.560
<v Speaker 11>there is a metro path for her through the former

0:32:04.600 --> 0:32:07.760
<v Speaker 11>Blue Wall states, and you know that is probably I

0:32:07.760 --> 0:32:09.480
<v Speaker 11>think where there's election is going to be is going

0:32:09.560 --> 0:32:10.240
<v Speaker 11>to be decided.

0:32:10.480 --> 0:32:14.200
<v Speaker 1>So now explain to me kind of what it looks

0:32:14.280 --> 0:32:18.000
<v Speaker 1>like right now, the early voting, it's hard to make

0:32:18.080 --> 0:32:21.760
<v Speaker 1>sense of we have North Carolina, I mean, what should

0:32:21.760 --> 0:32:22.520
<v Speaker 1>she be doing now?

0:32:22.680 --> 0:32:26.320
<v Speaker 11>The big picture is that if you look at polling

0:32:26.840 --> 0:32:30.240
<v Speaker 11>both in the swinging states and nationally, obviously polls differ,

0:32:30.520 --> 0:32:33.200
<v Speaker 11>but the basic story they are telling is very similar,

0:32:33.200 --> 0:32:36.680
<v Speaker 11>which is that Harris has regained a lot of the

0:32:36.720 --> 0:32:40.160
<v Speaker 11>ground Biden lost among voters of color, but she hasn't

0:32:40.200 --> 0:32:44.200
<v Speaker 11>regained all of it, especially among Latinos and especially among

0:32:44.280 --> 0:32:46.680
<v Speaker 11>Latino men. I mean, there are reasons for Democrats to

0:32:46.720 --> 0:32:50.120
<v Speaker 11>hope that the big declines among black men that some

0:32:50.160 --> 0:32:52.440
<v Speaker 11>polls are showing is an illusion that will not pan

0:32:52.520 --> 0:32:56.120
<v Speaker 11>out but it is hard to imagine that everything we're

0:32:56.120 --> 0:32:58.240
<v Speaker 11>seeing among Latino men is not real.

0:32:58.280 --> 0:32:59.960
<v Speaker 8>At least you know, some of it is not real.

0:33:00.200 --> 0:33:02.560
<v Speaker 11>So she has regained a lot of the ground Biden

0:33:02.640 --> 0:33:04.400
<v Speaker 11>loss among people of color, but not all of it.

0:33:04.440 --> 0:33:08.600
<v Speaker 11>On the other hand, like Biden, she is running very

0:33:08.640 --> 0:33:12.320
<v Speaker 11>close to the twenty twenty Democratic level of support among

0:33:12.360 --> 0:33:16.720
<v Speaker 11>white voters, which remember, was enough to win six of

0:33:16.760 --> 0:33:20.240
<v Speaker 11>the seven swing states. Right, so she might be down

0:33:20.640 --> 0:33:23.520
<v Speaker 11>a tick among white voters without a college degree, she

0:33:23.600 --> 0:33:25.920
<v Speaker 11>might be up a little bit among white voters with

0:33:26.040 --> 0:33:26.920
<v Speaker 11>a college degree.

0:33:27.120 --> 0:33:29.800
<v Speaker 8>But the net is that she is very.

0:33:29.440 --> 0:33:33.080
<v Speaker 11>Close in both national and state polling on a consistent

0:33:33.120 --> 0:33:35.280
<v Speaker 11>basis to where Biden was among whites.

0:33:35.360 --> 0:33:36.440
<v Speaker 8>Depending on the data source.

0:33:36.480 --> 0:33:39.280
<v Speaker 11>You used, Biden one between forty one and forty three

0:33:39.280 --> 0:33:41.720
<v Speaker 11>percent of whites, and look at something like the New

0:33:41.800 --> 0:33:44.720
<v Speaker 11>York Times poll was exactly forty three, the CNN national

0:33:44.720 --> 0:33:48.480
<v Speaker 11>poll was forty one. Consistently, she is right CNBC was

0:33:48.520 --> 0:33:50.800
<v Speaker 11>forty one. She's right in there. And so what does

0:33:50.840 --> 0:33:55.160
<v Speaker 11>that mean. That means that even a marginal decline, even

0:33:55.200 --> 0:33:58.560
<v Speaker 11>a slight decline in her support among voters of color

0:33:58.760 --> 0:34:01.840
<v Speaker 11>makes it really hard in the Sun Belt battlegrounds because

0:34:01.960 --> 0:34:04.960
<v Speaker 11>in those states, voters of color are a really big

0:34:05.000 --> 0:34:07.600
<v Speaker 11>portion of the electorate, and even a small change in

0:34:07.640 --> 0:34:09.840
<v Speaker 11>their preference is hard for Democrats to overcome.

0:34:10.080 --> 0:34:11.840
<v Speaker 8>So Arizona, Nevada.

0:34:12.000 --> 0:34:14.720
<v Speaker 11>You know, if Latino men really break away from Democrats

0:34:14.719 --> 0:34:16.320
<v Speaker 11>anywhere near the level we're seeing.

0:34:16.080 --> 0:34:16.640
<v Speaker 8>Hard to win.

0:34:16.800 --> 0:34:21.000
<v Speaker 11>Georgia still seems to be right in play, but even

0:34:21.120 --> 0:34:23.600
<v Speaker 11>a few point erosion with black men might be tough

0:34:23.640 --> 0:34:24.400
<v Speaker 11>to overcome.

0:34:24.440 --> 0:34:26.880
<v Speaker 8>North Carolina has been tough to begin with for Democrats.

0:34:26.960 --> 0:34:30.160
<v Speaker 11>On the other hand, if you are maintaining the national

0:34:30.719 --> 0:34:33.640
<v Speaker 11>the Biden level of support among whites from twenty twenty,

0:34:33.920 --> 0:34:36.880
<v Speaker 11>that leaves you in a much stronger position in Michigan

0:34:37.200 --> 0:34:39.920
<v Speaker 11>and Pennsylvania, where whites were about eighty percent of the

0:34:40.000 --> 0:34:43.080
<v Speaker 11>vote in twenty twenty, and in Wisconsin where they were

0:34:43.280 --> 0:34:46.440
<v Speaker 11>ninety percent. I mean, the paradox that Biden faced is

0:34:46.480 --> 0:34:49.080
<v Speaker 11>still kind of true. Even though Harris has improved a

0:34:49.120 --> 0:34:52.480
<v Speaker 11>lot with non white voters and become much more competitive

0:34:52.480 --> 0:34:54.800
<v Speaker 11>than he was in the Sun Belt, the reality is

0:34:54.800 --> 0:34:57.360
<v Speaker 11>is that her best states are still the ones that

0:34:57.440 --> 0:35:01.719
<v Speaker 11>are older and less diverse. Right, So one last point

0:35:01.719 --> 0:35:06.720
<v Speaker 11>about all this, imagine a world in which Harris doesn't

0:35:06.800 --> 0:35:10.160
<v Speaker 11>run as well among non white voters as Biden did

0:35:10.239 --> 0:35:14.120
<v Speaker 11>and way below what Clinton did in twenty sixteen, because

0:35:14.120 --> 0:35:15.200
<v Speaker 11>she ran even better.

0:35:15.000 --> 0:35:17.200
<v Speaker 8>Among non white voters or does a color than Biden did.

0:35:17.280 --> 0:35:19.879
<v Speaker 11>Imagine where Harris doesn't run as well as Clinton did

0:35:19.920 --> 0:35:23.799
<v Speaker 11>among voters of color, but she runs significantly better among

0:35:23.840 --> 0:35:25.839
<v Speaker 11>white voters, which is what she's backed to do.

0:35:25.960 --> 0:35:27.440
<v Speaker 8>I mean, by holding.

0:35:27.280 --> 0:35:32.319
<v Speaker 11>Biden's support among whites, she is locking in the improvement

0:35:32.360 --> 0:35:36.320
<v Speaker 11>that Biden made over Clinton from sixteen to twenty among whites.

0:35:36.520 --> 0:35:41.320
<v Speaker 11>So if you're down among non whites and up among whitest,

0:35:42.000 --> 0:35:45.240
<v Speaker 11>your net margin follow me here in the national popular

0:35:45.320 --> 0:35:46.720
<v Speaker 11>vote may be about the same.

0:35:46.560 --> 0:35:48.640
<v Speaker 8>As Clinton's, which was only two points.

0:35:48.840 --> 0:35:51.480
<v Speaker 11>Your national popular vote may not be any better than Clinton's,

0:35:51.480 --> 0:35:54.880
<v Speaker 11>but you would be better positioned than her to win Michigan, Pennsylvania,

0:35:55.040 --> 0:35:57.400
<v Speaker 11>and was. As the political scientists say, it is a

0:35:57.480 --> 0:36:01.840
<v Speaker 11>more efficient political coalition. Democrats have become accustomed to the

0:36:01.840 --> 0:36:03.920
<v Speaker 11>idea they have to win the popular vote by a

0:36:04.000 --> 0:36:08.080
<v Speaker 11>lot in order to squeeze out an electoral college majority,

0:36:08.120 --> 0:36:10.920
<v Speaker 11>and no one, no one would prefer to try to

0:36:10.960 --> 0:36:12.759
<v Speaker 11>win as a Democrat with a two point lead in

0:36:12.760 --> 0:36:15.720
<v Speaker 11>the popular vote rather than Biden's four and a half,

0:36:16.080 --> 0:36:18.080
<v Speaker 11>but it is not out of reach for her. She

0:36:18.160 --> 0:36:21.160
<v Speaker 11>may fall short in at least one of those three states,

0:36:21.400 --> 0:36:23.239
<v Speaker 11>but it is not hard for me to imagine a

0:36:23.239 --> 0:36:27.360
<v Speaker 11>world where the same popular vote national margin as Clinton

0:36:27.360 --> 0:36:31.040
<v Speaker 11>had can translate into two hundred and seventy Electoral College

0:36:31.120 --> 0:36:33.759
<v Speaker 11>votes for Harris in a way that it could not

0:36:33.920 --> 0:36:34.440
<v Speaker 11>for Clinton.

0:36:34.760 --> 0:36:36.400
<v Speaker 7>Okay, now I have two questions.

0:36:36.760 --> 0:36:39.720
<v Speaker 1>One is I want you to talk about what happened

0:36:39.800 --> 0:36:43.319
<v Speaker 1>last night at Madison Square Garden. The comedian whose name

0:36:43.360 --> 0:36:46.760
<v Speaker 1>is Tony Hinchcliff made a number of racist jokes.

0:36:46.440 --> 0:36:48.560
<v Speaker 7>And also misogynistics jokes.

0:36:48.600 --> 0:36:51.200
<v Speaker 1>He made a joke about oj Simpson, but the joke

0:36:51.600 --> 0:36:54.600
<v Speaker 1>that may have really cost the campaign the most votes

0:36:54.760 --> 0:36:57.960
<v Speaker 1>was his joke about how Puerto Rico was a floating

0:36:58.040 --> 0:37:00.560
<v Speaker 1>pile of garbage, almost.

0:37:00.360 --> 0:37:01.719
<v Speaker 7>Like a mirror.

0:37:02.239 --> 0:37:05.680
<v Speaker 1>Hour later, we had j Lo, we had bad Bunny,

0:37:06.400 --> 0:37:09.840
<v Speaker 1>Mark Anthony did a video today, but Ricky Martin. So

0:37:09.920 --> 0:37:14.720
<v Speaker 1>we've had a number of Puerto Rican celebrities indors Harris,

0:37:15.160 --> 0:37:18.000
<v Speaker 1>and it reminds me a lot of You'll remember that

0:37:18.280 --> 0:37:21.719
<v Speaker 1>when Donald Trump was tweeting out these or retweeting these

0:37:21.800 --> 0:37:26.840
<v Speaker 1>fake Taylor Swift endorsements. That led to Taylor Swift endorsing Harris.

0:37:26.840 --> 0:37:30.319
<v Speaker 1>And remember when Trump said that Jamie Diamond was going

0:37:30.400 --> 0:37:32.719
<v Speaker 1>to endorse him. That led to Jamie Diamond saying that

0:37:32.800 --> 0:37:37.480
<v Speaker 1>actually he would take a cabinet position in the Harris administration.

0:37:37.600 --> 0:37:40.160
<v Speaker 1>But yes, so Donald Trump helped get a lot of

0:37:40.239 --> 0:37:41.480
<v Speaker 1>endorsements for Harris.

0:37:41.560 --> 0:37:43.439
<v Speaker 7>Is it too late for something like that to move

0:37:43.480 --> 0:37:43.920
<v Speaker 7>the needle?

0:37:44.280 --> 0:37:48.640
<v Speaker 11>Someone showed me a private Democratic poll that had Pennsylvania

0:37:48.680 --> 0:37:51.880
<v Speaker 11>within half a point, you know. So the answer is

0:37:52.239 --> 0:37:55.840
<v Speaker 11>there are five hundred thousand Puerto Rican citizens in Pennsylvania,

0:37:55.840 --> 0:37:57.480
<v Speaker 11>and I believe you. John Fetterman tweeted today that four

0:37:57.560 --> 0:37:59.800
<v Speaker 11>hundred thousand, roughly four hunred thousand of them can vote.

0:38:00.120 --> 0:38:04.239
<v Speaker 11>So Trump was counting on improvements with those voters as

0:38:04.320 --> 0:38:08.040
<v Speaker 11>part of his winning coalition. And first of all, the

0:38:08.080 --> 0:38:11.360
<v Speaker 11>tenor of the overall rally I think was a signal,

0:38:11.520 --> 0:38:14.439
<v Speaker 11>like everything else we're watching, that Trump thinks he has won,

0:38:14.920 --> 0:38:18.960
<v Speaker 11>that America is on board for a full scale kind

0:38:19.000 --> 0:38:22.840
<v Speaker 11>of cultural purge and racial purge, that they can just

0:38:22.920 --> 0:38:25.160
<v Speaker 11>kind of, you know, let it go. And also, I

0:38:25.160 --> 0:38:28.680
<v Speaker 11>mean they also believe that the more extreme and outrageous

0:38:28.719 --> 0:38:31.480
<v Speaker 11>you get, the more likely you are to activate rarely

0:38:31.600 --> 0:38:35.520
<v Speaker 11>voting conservative men, younger men, non college men, all of that.

0:38:35.760 --> 0:38:38.359
<v Speaker 11>So it's it's like they turn up the volume because

0:38:38.360 --> 0:38:40.440
<v Speaker 11>they think that's the only way they can reach these

0:38:40.480 --> 0:38:43.279
<v Speaker 11>people who are disconnected from the political system.

0:38:42.880 --> 0:38:46.000
<v Speaker 1>Right, but that they then very likely take a chance

0:38:46.040 --> 0:38:47.640
<v Speaker 1>to really alienate.

0:38:48.120 --> 0:38:48.719
<v Speaker 8>That's the thing.

0:38:48.960 --> 0:38:51.120
<v Speaker 11>The way I've been phrasing it is that for the

0:38:51.160 --> 0:38:51.880
<v Speaker 11>final week.

0:38:52.000 --> 0:38:54.760
<v Speaker 8>To me, the question is what is the question?

0:38:55.280 --> 0:38:59.200
<v Speaker 11>Like Trump started his speech yesterday, I believe with the

0:38:59.320 --> 0:39:02.000
<v Speaker 11>question that we're Republicans want to be the question are

0:39:02.040 --> 0:39:03.680
<v Speaker 11>you better off than you were four years ago?

0:39:03.920 --> 0:39:05.400
<v Speaker 8>Now? It may not be fair.

0:39:05.200 --> 0:39:07.480
<v Speaker 11>Given all the growth in the job market and all

0:39:07.520 --> 0:39:10.399
<v Speaker 11>the billions of dollars hundreds of abilities osma vet right.

0:39:10.400 --> 0:39:14.239
<v Speaker 1>But a straight economic message you could see delivering for

0:39:14.320 --> 0:39:15.520
<v Speaker 1>a Republican right.

0:39:15.640 --> 0:39:18.200
<v Speaker 11>But you know, most people, because of inflation, say they're

0:39:18.239 --> 0:39:19.880
<v Speaker 11>not better off than they were four years ago. And

0:39:19.960 --> 0:39:22.799
<v Speaker 11>that's especially true among families living paycheck to paycheck, which

0:39:22.800 --> 0:39:24.440
<v Speaker 11>include a lot of you know, in black families.

0:39:24.760 --> 0:39:27.759
<v Speaker 7>The irony, though, is that four years ago we were

0:39:27.800 --> 0:39:28.920
<v Speaker 7>in the middle of a pandemic.

0:39:29.280 --> 0:39:31.960
<v Speaker 11>Right that lead that aside, If that's the question it's

0:39:32.000 --> 0:39:34.839
<v Speaker 11>a hard road for Paris, but there is no reason

0:39:34.960 --> 0:39:36.480
<v Speaker 11>that has to be the question. I mean, the other

0:39:36.560 --> 0:39:39.520
<v Speaker 11>question that America is grappling with, that could be the

0:39:39.640 --> 0:39:42.799
<v Speaker 11>dominant question in the final days, is are you willing

0:39:42.880 --> 0:39:48.160
<v Speaker 11>to risk returning this Donald Trump? Who is this overtly racist, xenophobic,

0:39:48.400 --> 0:39:50.040
<v Speaker 11>misogynist and authoritarian.

0:39:50.160 --> 0:39:52.440
<v Speaker 8>Are you willing to return him to the White House.

0:39:52.480 --> 0:39:54.400
<v Speaker 11>The answer is yes for a lot of people, but

0:39:54.640 --> 0:39:58.480
<v Speaker 11>there are certainly some voters who might be dissatisfied with

0:39:58.560 --> 0:40:01.800
<v Speaker 11>the economy, might trust more on the economy, who simply

0:40:01.880 --> 0:40:02.799
<v Speaker 11>are not willing to.

0:40:02.800 --> 0:40:05.680
<v Speaker 8>Take that risk. And this is not a theoretical proposition.

0:40:05.840 --> 0:40:08.680
<v Speaker 11>We saw it in twenty twenty two when Democrats won

0:40:08.719 --> 0:40:11.360
<v Speaker 11>an unusually high percentage of voters who disapproved of Biden

0:40:11.760 --> 0:40:14.759
<v Speaker 11>or disapproved to the economy and still would not vote

0:40:14.760 --> 0:40:16.960
<v Speaker 11>for Republican alternatives.

0:40:16.560 --> 0:40:18.280
<v Speaker 7>Right than Nicki Haley voters.

0:40:18.680 --> 0:40:21.520
<v Speaker 11>Part of Nicki Haley voters, but you know, even probably

0:40:21.680 --> 0:40:25.960
<v Speaker 11>some blue collar white women and some black and Hispanic men.

0:40:26.200 --> 0:40:29.080
<v Speaker 11>In the end, I mean, I think Trump is trying

0:40:29.120 --> 0:40:31.759
<v Speaker 11>to execute and maybe appropriately enough, after this rally with

0:40:31.800 --> 0:40:34.400
<v Speaker 11>its nineteen thirty nine echoes, he is trying to execute

0:40:34.400 --> 0:40:37.160
<v Speaker 11>a pincer movement. I think it is highly likely, given

0:40:37.200 --> 0:40:39.279
<v Speaker 11>the way they portrayed Harris as his out of touch

0:40:39.320 --> 0:40:42.360
<v Speaker 11>coastal liberal, that he will run even better than he

0:40:42.480 --> 0:40:45.960
<v Speaker 11>did in Trump country, small town, rural e serban America,

0:40:46.480 --> 0:40:49.440
<v Speaker 11>mostly non college white. It's a lot of conservative Christians,

0:40:49.640 --> 0:40:53.000
<v Speaker 11>you know, very resonant with the social issues. And I

0:40:53.120 --> 0:40:56.680
<v Speaker 11>think primarily because of inflation, it's likely that he will

0:40:56.719 --> 0:40:57.759
<v Speaker 11>make at least.

0:40:57.800 --> 0:41:00.600
<v Speaker 8>Some progress at crack these.

0:41:00.520 --> 0:41:05.400
<v Speaker 11>Towering traditional Democratic advantages in the central cities among voters

0:41:05.640 --> 0:41:06.120
<v Speaker 11>of color.

0:41:06.280 --> 0:41:07.920
<v Speaker 8>So where does she go to offset that?

0:41:08.000 --> 0:41:10.560
<v Speaker 11>Well, partially she starts with a cushion because Biden won

0:41:10.640 --> 0:41:12.600
<v Speaker 11>the states that she has to win. But where does

0:41:12.640 --> 0:41:14.680
<v Speaker 11>she go. She goes to the inner suburb. She goes

0:41:14.719 --> 0:41:18.640
<v Speaker 11>to the racially diverse, well educated, generally doing pretty well.

0:41:18.760 --> 0:41:20.480
<v Speaker 11>Like inflation is kind of a pain, but it's not

0:41:20.560 --> 0:41:24.360
<v Speaker 11>really an existential crisis for people in Montgomery and Delaware

0:41:24.440 --> 0:41:27.640
<v Speaker 11>County and Oakland County and Kent County and Gaine and

0:41:28.120 --> 0:41:31.400
<v Speaker 11>the Wow Counties, Waukesha and so forth. And there are

0:41:31.440 --> 0:41:34.719
<v Speaker 11>the voters who could say, yeah, I don't think the

0:41:34.800 --> 0:41:37.000
<v Speaker 11>last four years have worked out that well, but I

0:41:37.160 --> 0:41:39.800
<v Speaker 11>am not willing to take the risk of going to Trump,

0:41:39.880 --> 0:41:43.239
<v Speaker 11>and if you ask me today, she can, and she

0:41:43.440 --> 0:41:47.200
<v Speaker 11>probably must do a little better than Biden did in

0:41:47.320 --> 0:41:49.280
<v Speaker 11>all of the places I just mentioned, the four suburban

0:41:49.320 --> 0:41:52.239
<v Speaker 11>counties outside Philly. Biden won them by two hundred ninety

0:41:52.239 --> 0:41:54.960
<v Speaker 11>thousand votes, which was itself one hundred and fifteen thousand

0:41:55.000 --> 0:41:57.239
<v Speaker 11>more than Hillary. She may have to do better yet

0:41:57.400 --> 0:42:00.400
<v Speaker 11>Oakland County he doubled the margin of Hillary.

0:42:00.640 --> 0:42:01.520
<v Speaker 8>She might have to do it better.

0:42:01.640 --> 0:42:01.759
<v Speaker 2>Yet.

0:42:01.960 --> 0:42:05.400
<v Speaker 11>Dane County, it just keeps growing, turnout keeps going up,

0:42:05.440 --> 0:42:08.520
<v Speaker 11>and the Democratic margins keep going up. She's probably going

0:42:08.600 --> 0:42:11.799
<v Speaker 11>to have to max out there to squeeze out Wisconsin.

0:42:12.239 --> 0:42:14.840
<v Speaker 11>Not a simple path, no guarantee that she can do it,

0:42:14.920 --> 0:42:17.640
<v Speaker 11>but not an impossible one at all. I mean, really

0:42:18.040 --> 0:42:21.200
<v Speaker 11>within the margin of effort, as people say, for her

0:42:21.560 --> 0:42:24.120
<v Speaker 11>to generate enough of the vote she needs in all

0:42:24.239 --> 0:42:27.000
<v Speaker 11>of those three states to squeeze them out, even if

0:42:27.040 --> 0:42:29.400
<v Speaker 11>the national popular vote is much closer than it was

0:42:29.440 --> 0:42:31.920
<v Speaker 11>in twenty twenty, and maybe as close or even closer

0:42:32.080 --> 0:42:33.240
<v Speaker 11>than it was in twenty sixteen.

0:42:33.520 --> 0:42:36.200
<v Speaker 7>All right, so now go along with me on this.

0:42:36.640 --> 0:42:40.200
<v Speaker 1>What if the polls are just wrong, What if she's

0:42:40.320 --> 0:42:45.720
<v Speaker 1>doing better what if they're just waiting them to are heavy,

0:42:46.239 --> 0:42:50.439
<v Speaker 1>to try to not underestimate Trump yet again, could be sure?

0:42:50.719 --> 0:42:52.560
<v Speaker 11>I mean yes, I mean you only find out the

0:42:52.600 --> 0:42:55.520
<v Speaker 11>polls are wrong after I mean, maybe that's right, but

0:42:55.719 --> 0:42:57.719
<v Speaker 11>I kind of feel like, you know, in some ways

0:42:57.719 --> 0:42:59.000
<v Speaker 11>that were like past that question.

0:42:59.200 --> 0:43:01.520
<v Speaker 8>If after all of this, the polls.

0:43:01.280 --> 0:43:03.239
<v Speaker 11>Are telling you it's within one point either way, they're

0:43:03.239 --> 0:43:05.160
<v Speaker 11>telling you that either side can win these states, and

0:43:05.239 --> 0:43:07.800
<v Speaker 11>their polling probably can't predict which one it will be

0:43:07.920 --> 0:43:11.680
<v Speaker 11>because it isn't surgical precision to that extent where you

0:43:11.800 --> 0:43:14.480
<v Speaker 11>can look at it and say, well, you know, she's

0:43:14.560 --> 0:43:16.319
<v Speaker 11>up at half a point in Wisconsin, so she's going

0:43:16.400 --> 0:43:17.239
<v Speaker 11>to win, and you don't know.

0:43:17.440 --> 0:43:17.640
<v Speaker 8>I mean.

0:43:18.160 --> 0:43:20.200
<v Speaker 11>One thing Democrats do have to worry about is that

0:43:20.239 --> 0:43:23.640
<v Speaker 11>in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, the next circle of irregular voters

0:43:24.040 --> 0:43:26.560
<v Speaker 11>does tend to lean more toward non college whites who

0:43:26.600 --> 0:43:28.480
<v Speaker 11>are probably going to vote for Trump, you know, sixty

0:43:28.480 --> 0:43:30.319
<v Speaker 11>to forty. But there are also a lot of high

0:43:30.320 --> 0:43:34.359
<v Speaker 11>propensity Republican leaning voters, women in particular, but maybe even

0:43:34.440 --> 0:43:37.600
<v Speaker 11>some men who are not going to go along with

0:43:37.719 --> 0:43:39.640
<v Speaker 11>him in the way they did last time. Because of

0:43:39.680 --> 0:43:41.200
<v Speaker 11>the two things the two big things that have happened

0:43:41.200 --> 0:43:44.600
<v Speaker 11>since then January sixth and Doc and also just this

0:43:44.960 --> 0:43:48.520
<v Speaker 11>you know, turn toward ever more overt kind of authoritarian

0:43:48.760 --> 0:43:50.480
<v Speaker 11>and racist. By the way, I can I just make

0:43:50.520 --> 0:43:52.920
<v Speaker 11>one point on that it always gets a lot of

0:43:53.000 --> 0:43:58.000
<v Speaker 11>focus when Trump says things that are outrageous or you know,

0:43:58.160 --> 0:44:01.640
<v Speaker 11>just patently offensive. In John Kelly's interviews, we focus on

0:44:01.680 --> 0:44:03.200
<v Speaker 11>the fact that he had praised Hitler and said he

0:44:03.239 --> 0:44:07.279
<v Speaker 11>wanted Hitler's generals from yesterday's rally. We're focusing on these

0:44:07.400 --> 0:44:10.360
<v Speaker 11>remarks about Puerto Rico. But I think it's really important

0:44:10.360 --> 0:44:12.719
<v Speaker 11>for people to understand that it's not just rhetoric. There

0:44:12.800 --> 0:44:15.759
<v Speaker 11>is policy attached to this in each case. I mean

0:44:15.800 --> 0:44:18.640
<v Speaker 11>what John Kelly, The most important part of John Kelly's

0:44:18.680 --> 0:44:21.200
<v Speaker 11>interview was not that Hitler, you know, Trump said ad

0:44:21.239 --> 0:44:23.760
<v Speaker 11>Myron things about Hiller. It's that John Kelly said, Trump

0:44:23.960 --> 0:44:28.360
<v Speaker 11>repeatedly as president wanted to use the military against American

0:44:28.440 --> 0:44:31.680
<v Speaker 11>citizens on US Street, and as I've written, he has

0:44:32.000 --> 0:44:36.279
<v Speaker 11>multiple specific proposals to do that. And similarly, at the

0:44:36.320 --> 0:44:38.640
<v Speaker 11>same time this rally was happening in Madison Square Garden,

0:44:39.400 --> 0:44:43.240
<v Speaker 11>one of Trump's top immigration divisors was on sixty minutes,

0:44:43.560 --> 0:44:47.279
<v Speaker 11>and he said something that was so incendiary that I

0:44:47.320 --> 0:44:48.720
<v Speaker 11>am astonished for we're not talking.

0:44:48.560 --> 0:44:49.080
<v Speaker 8>About it more.

0:44:49.120 --> 0:44:52.080
<v Speaker 11>Today he was asked, how would you avoid family separation

0:44:52.239 --> 0:44:54.960
<v Speaker 11>in madics deportation, He said, no, we want to separate

0:44:54.960 --> 0:44:55.279
<v Speaker 11>them at all.

0:44:55.320 --> 0:44:56.359
<v Speaker 8>We'll deport the kids too.

0:44:56.680 --> 0:45:02.840
<v Speaker 11>There are four million US c citizen children Latino US

0:45:02.960 --> 0:45:07.000
<v Speaker 11>citizen children who have at least one parent who is undocumented.

0:45:07.360 --> 0:45:12.040
<v Speaker 11>So the Trump administration is now openly talking about deporting

0:45:12.160 --> 0:45:17.040
<v Speaker 11>potentially millions of US citizen Latino children as part of

0:45:17.080 --> 0:45:17.880
<v Speaker 11>the mass deportation.

0:45:18.200 --> 0:45:21.600
<v Speaker 8>I have not heard that before yesterday. And maybe the

0:45:21.680 --> 0:45:22.719
<v Speaker 8>courts would stop.

0:45:22.520 --> 0:45:24.680
<v Speaker 11>Them, though I'm not sure John Roberts would stop Donald

0:45:24.719 --> 0:45:27.480
<v Speaker 11>Trump from anything that he wants to do in the end.

0:45:27.640 --> 0:45:30.319
<v Speaker 11>But when you were talking about deporting not only undocumented

0:45:30.320 --> 0:45:33.759
<v Speaker 11>people but millions of citizens, you are starting to veer

0:45:34.080 --> 0:45:37.800
<v Speaker 11>deeper into the realm of ethnic cleansing. And again, you know,

0:45:37.920 --> 0:45:40.600
<v Speaker 11>the paradox and all of this is that Trump is

0:45:40.719 --> 0:45:45.600
<v Speaker 11>not only hoping for he is counting on significantly improved

0:45:45.680 --> 0:45:49.480
<v Speaker 11>performance with Latino voters, especially men, even as they are

0:45:49.560 --> 0:45:54.800
<v Speaker 11>now talking openly about deporting potentially millions of US born

0:45:54.960 --> 0:45:57.759
<v Speaker 11>citizen Latino kids, We just kind of wrap your head

0:45:57.800 --> 0:46:00.839
<v Speaker 11>around that, you know, their expectation that they can get

0:46:00.880 --> 0:46:03.920
<v Speaker 11>away with this, you know, kind of stereo broadcasting that

0:46:04.120 --> 0:46:08.239
<v Speaker 11>kind of message white yes and counting on Latinos to

0:46:08.280 --> 0:46:09.440
<v Speaker 11>move for them on the economy.

0:46:09.560 --> 0:46:11.200
<v Speaker 7>Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you.

0:46:11.360 --> 0:46:18.760
<v Speaker 1>Ron No Moon, Jesse Cannon, Molly.

0:46:18.960 --> 0:46:22.680
<v Speaker 4>The fallout continues from Tony Hinchcliff's really stupid joke about

0:46:22.680 --> 0:46:24.000
<v Speaker 4>Puerto Rico. What are you seeing here?

0:46:24.480 --> 0:46:29.279
<v Speaker 2>So, Puerto Rico's Republican party chairman has threatened to withhold

0:46:29.400 --> 0:46:33.000
<v Speaker 2>his support from Donald Trump unless he issues an apology

0:46:33.080 --> 0:46:37.680
<v Speaker 2>for the offensive remarks that Tony Henchcliff made on Sunday

0:46:38.200 --> 0:46:42.000
<v Speaker 2>at Madison Square Garden. He called the island a floating

0:46:42.080 --> 0:46:45.520
<v Speaker 2>island of garbage. The comments sparked a lot of condemnation,

0:46:46.160 --> 0:46:49.160
<v Speaker 2>but we haven't seen an apology. And if I know

0:46:49.400 --> 0:46:52.799
<v Speaker 2>anything about Trump, and I know a little bit, unfortunately

0:46:52.880 --> 0:46:56.040
<v Speaker 2>for me, it's that I would be very surprised if

0:46:56.080 --> 0:46:58.800
<v Speaker 2>you get an apology for this. You'll remember that Donald

0:46:58.800 --> 0:47:05.160
<v Speaker 2>Trump still hasn't dissape out North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson.

0:47:05.600 --> 0:47:06.799
<v Speaker 3>So I think it's very.

0:47:06.800 --> 0:47:09.920
<v Speaker 2>Unlikely we're going to see an apology here, since what

0:47:10.040 --> 0:47:12.640
<v Speaker 2>we saw in Chady Vance say was that everyone should

0:47:12.880 --> 0:47:17.120
<v Speaker 2>suck it up and be okay with racism because we're

0:47:17.160 --> 0:47:19.200
<v Speaker 2>all too politically correct.

0:47:19.719 --> 0:47:22.560
<v Speaker 3>That, my friends, is our moment of book.

0:47:23.239 --> 0:47:27.400
<v Speaker 1>That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in

0:47:27.920 --> 0:47:33.319
<v Speaker 1>every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday to hear the best

0:47:33.440 --> 0:47:37.719
<v Speaker 1>minds and politics make sense of all this chaos. If

0:47:37.760 --> 0:47:40.760
<v Speaker 1>you enjoy this podcast, please send it to a friend

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<v Speaker 1>and keep the conversation going. Thanks for listening.