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Speaker 1: Welcome to the favorites of the podcast from the Volume

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Speaker 1: Podcast Network. I am Chad Mollman, Chief Content Officer of

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Speaker 1: the Action Network, Big Big Show. Today. I am joined

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Speaker 1: as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre from

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Speaker 1: the Fighting City of Philadelphia, professional better Sigmon Hunter. Hello,

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Speaker 1: what's going on? Brother dude? I know you're not feeling great.

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Speaker 1: You're a champ. You and I spoke over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: You were working out, you were running hills, you were

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Speaker 1: in heat condition. One weekend on the shore, you're getting

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Speaker 1: Know that throws you for a loop a little bit.

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Speaker 1: When visited family up in Connecticut, they live on this

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Speaker 1: lovely lake. Was based on a boat day. Drinking all day,

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Speaker 1: I got either some poisoning, I was hungover, and I

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Speaker 1: woke up Sunday morning like I literally couldn't get out

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Speaker 1: of bed. I felt so weak and tired, and then yep,

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Speaker 1: I don't even know how to describe it was just

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Speaker 1: like twenty four hours of hell. I woke up Monday

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Speaker 1: morning and I was like, all right, I gotta get

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Speaker 1: tested for COVID. When it took the test, that's the positive.

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Speaker 1: They got your boy chat again. I got COVID again.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, Luckily it's before football. I'm starting to, you know,

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Speaker 1: dive into football stuff. Anyway, that was kind of my

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Speaker 1: last hurrah. So I don't know. It's kind of perfect

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Speaker 1: time and I'm trying to be positive about it, but

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Speaker 1: yet it sucks. I feel like ship right now. You

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Speaker 1: gotta be positive. You gotta be up to missic the

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Speaker 1: way you're setting positive. You said, Hohorah right there, it

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Speaker 1: sounded like al Pacino from Scent of a Woman. That's

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Speaker 1: what I'm going for. What channelmen? When is it? It's

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Speaker 1: the fan Some guys run and some guys stay. What

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Speaker 1: I share? What kind of a show are you guys

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Speaker 1: putting on here? Today? We've got a couple of things

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Speaker 1: going on today. Two very popular segments are coming back.

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Speaker 1: One the mail Bag. We've done the mail Bag a

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Speaker 1: couple of times. I think the questions have been outstanding,

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Speaker 1: and so people in the past couple of days has

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Speaker 1: sent in a bunch more questions, including some big media

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Speaker 1: moves that have happened in the past forty eight hours.

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Speaker 1: Some player movement. How that's impacting odds? What we should

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Speaker 1: be thinking about it for the NFL Before we do that,

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Speaker 1: We're gonna bring it back one of our brilliant predictive analysts,

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Speaker 1: Nick Giffen, for the favorite segment of the fans, What

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Speaker 1: are the Odds? Hey? Nick, how do you? How's it going?

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Speaker 1: It's good? I will tell you this. This segment has

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Speaker 1: become very popular. So um I was out this weekend

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Speaker 1: on a Saturday night. Is that I was at a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a shin big here in Weeha, West Herford, Connecticut.

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Speaker 1: A buddy of mine came up to me and he's like,

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Speaker 1: I listen to podcast that What are the Odds segment

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Speaker 1: is so good? And then he started talking about the

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Speaker 1: last one we did, about the two golfers who got

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Speaker 1: the hole in one with the same ball at the

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Speaker 1: same course on the same day. He like knew every detail,

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Speaker 1: he remembered every number, he remembered the odds, he remembered

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Speaker 1: the breakdown. Because he was explaining it to another buddy,

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Speaker 1: He's like, dude, you gotta listen to this. You can't

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Speaker 1: believe this segment so I'm excited to bring back Summer's

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Speaker 1: favorite segment of all podcasts, which is what are the Odds?

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Speaker 1: This is great? Oh yeah, I love doing this. How

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Speaker 1: am I to this guy? What am I even doing

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Speaker 1: your chat? Jesus, what do you mean? What about my segments? Oh?

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Speaker 1: My god? Are you serious? Are you serious? Right now?

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Speaker 1: That like you've blown up in two a gambling cultural phenomenon,

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Speaker 1: and we have one segment that you're not the fucking

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Speaker 1: centerpiece of and someone's not talking about you, and they

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Speaker 1: talk about the podcast, and all of a sudden, you're

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Speaker 1: whining about it. Yeah, I got a problem. Where's my

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Speaker 1: story about this guy coming? You're saying I like your

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Speaker 1: partner assignment where than I like you? That's what stories

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Speaker 1: I want to hear from you chat, because those are

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Speaker 1: my favorite stories. That happens like every day, that happens

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Speaker 1: to God, it happens in my own house. I don't

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Speaker 1: need parties I go to No. I agree with the guy.

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Speaker 1: It's my favorite segment we do. I love it because

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Speaker 1: I love I just love the stories. I love the

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Speaker 1: math looks. It was that and it's becoming more and

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Speaker 1: more relevant. Right there was the uh Andrew McCabe and

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Speaker 1: James coney Comey from the FBI both were given these

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Speaker 1: very sort of excruciating colon ascarp be like I R

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Speaker 1: s audits. During the Trump administration, the New York Times

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Speaker 1: Upshot column did a data and analytical examination of what

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Speaker 1: are the odds that these two guys would get this

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Speaker 1: kind of audit? It was like I sent it to

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Speaker 1: Nick and and uh Sean Kroner. I think the odds

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Speaker 1: were something like one and eighty two million, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: just phenomenal odds there. So not impossible, but very improbable.

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Speaker 1: You gotta it's something's fishing about it. I'm just gonna

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Speaker 1: say something very very fishy. All right. So this this

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Speaker 1: uh comes from a listener, a longtime listener named Josh.

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Speaker 1: This is the European vacation addition. Here we go. A

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Speaker 1: few years ago, I took a vacation to Europe by myself.

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Speaker 1: It was the first time outside the US. One of

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Speaker 1: the first stops was the Czech Republic. My first night

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Speaker 1: in Prague, the craziest thing happened to me. I checked

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Speaker 1: into where I was staying in the center of the city,

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Speaker 1: that went out for dinner. Because I only speak English,

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Speaker 1: I didn't bother to ask anyone for a suggestion on

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Speaker 1: where to eat. Instead, I just picked a direction started

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Speaker 1: walking until I saw a crowded restaurant that looked like

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Speaker 1: it had a good menu, and I went inside. The

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Speaker 1: restaurant had a capacity of about seventy people. I ordered

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Speaker 1: a couple of beers some food. While I'm waiting, a

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Speaker 1: group of six people come in sit down to the

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Speaker 1: table next to me. Immediately I can tell their Americans.

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Speaker 1: I started conversation with them. At the time, I was

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Speaker 1: almost thirty and in the group of people, and the

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Speaker 1: group of people were all in their mid fifties. They

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Speaker 1: tell me they just finished a river cruise on the

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Speaker 1: Danube and we're flying home out of Prague. They invite

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Speaker 1: me to sit with them, and they asked me where

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Speaker 1: I'm from. This is where things get a little crazy.

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Speaker 1: Bump bump bum I told him. I told him I

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Speaker 1: grew up in Texas in the late nineteen eighties. One

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Speaker 1: guy asked me where. I told him El Paso. Until

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Speaker 1: I was about ten, the guy tells me he used

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Speaker 1: to live in Texas and had to travel to El

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Speaker 1: Paso for work. I asked what he did for a

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Speaker 1: living and he told me he sold medical equipment for

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Speaker 1: cancer treatments. I was stunned. My mother was the head

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Speaker 1: of radiology at a cancer treatment center in El Paso.

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Speaker 1: We also have an unusual last name. To my knowledge,

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Speaker 1: there are only fifteen people with our last name in America.

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Speaker 1: So I tell him about my mother's job in O Passo.

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Speaker 1: He naturally asked me for my mother's name, and when

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Speaker 1: I tell him, he shouts, I remember Beth butter Wedge.

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Speaker 1: The guy can't believe it, and we proceeded to call

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Speaker 1: my mother from the restaurant and then reconnected right there

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Speaker 1: at the table. It was wild that at the end

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Speaker 1: of the story, Nick, I will ask you for the

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Speaker 1: odds of something like this happening in a moment. Let me,

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Speaker 1: of course bring it back to me just for a second.

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Speaker 1: When I traveled in Europe as a college junior, went

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Speaker 1: to Prague, one of my favorite cities in the world.

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Speaker 1: It was beautiful, great place to travel alone. I gotta

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Speaker 1: say two. I laughed because this guy at the time

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Speaker 1: was in his thirties. Probably saw these people in their

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Speaker 1: fifties coming off a river cruise. And I laughed because

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Speaker 1: I watched a lot of PBS especially loved Downtown Abbey Laura.

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Speaker 1: Lenny would always do a commercial and then a promo,

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Speaker 1: and then there would always be a commercial for river

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Speaker 1: cruises down the Danube. And I always said to my wife,

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Speaker 1: it looks amazing, and she goes, that is for people

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Speaker 1: who are so old, and said, I'm thinking about this guy,

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Speaker 1: Jash butter Wedge, and the way he would perceive me

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Speaker 1: is as a very old person who likes river cruises.

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Speaker 1: M Nick, break it down, brother, alrighty, so uh we Unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw a lot of cold water on this one.

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Speaker 1: It's not going to be as long odds as it

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Speaker 1: may sound. So first of all, let's all this spoils

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Speaker 1: down to, is he ran into somebody that knows his mom.

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Speaker 1: So that's what we need to figure out, right, I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's what we need to figure out. What just sounds

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Speaker 1: like you you meet this guy at a party, he

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Speaker 1: tells you this story, and you're like, yeah, so somebody

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Speaker 1: knows your mom in the world exactly exactly because of

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Speaker 1: the week we had, I really thought were about that

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Speaker 1: was Zack Wilson's story coming here. All right, So here's

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Speaker 1: the thing He's we don't have a ton of details.

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Speaker 1: We know he's in Central Europe in Prague, and this

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Speaker 1: was not the first place he had visited on his trip,

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Speaker 1: so there's some other variables like the length of time

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Speaker 1: he was there, how many cities Z go to, etcetera,

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Speaker 1: that could affect this. But what we're gonna stick with is,

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Speaker 1: first of all, his mom is the head of radiology.

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Speaker 1: That means she probably knows a lot more people than

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Speaker 1: your average American. The average American knows about six hundred

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Speaker 1: and eleven people according to a paper I found, and

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Speaker 1: if she's in the ninety percentile for women, that means

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Speaker 1: she knows probably one thousand, two hundred fifty people. Uh,

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Speaker 1: and that's like knows. There are probably a lot more

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Speaker 1: that she's met or things like that, which would go

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Speaker 1: into the tens of thousands, but we'll stick with people

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Speaker 1: she knows. Of those one thousand, two hundred fifty people,

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Speaker 1: they've probably taken about six trips to Europe in that year.

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Speaker 1: A lot are in the Zeros, but she's also in

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Speaker 1: this demographic that is head of radiology, the skies and sales.

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Speaker 1: These types of people are taking one to three trips

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Speaker 1: to Europe per year, So we actually average a little

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Speaker 1: more than one trip to Europe per year. I should

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Speaker 1: say one trip abroad per year eleven and percent of

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Speaker 1: those trips go to Central Europe. So that gives us

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Speaker 1: about half a person going to Central Europe per day

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Speaker 1: that this person's mom knows. So, uh, let's just say

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Speaker 1: he's in Europe for ten days. That means two and

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Speaker 1: a half uh, mom acquaintances per day will be in

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Speaker 1: Central Europe. So if we take the Central Europe population

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Speaker 1: of a hundred sixty five million, Uh, we can just say,

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Speaker 1: you know, hundreds two point five divide a hundred sixty

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Speaker 1: five million, But that also would be only if you

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Speaker 1: ran into one person. Now he's going around, and you know,

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Speaker 1: it sounds like he was actively seeking out Americans because

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Speaker 1: you know, Americans sat next to me the first one

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Speaker 1: I had seen. I went to talk to them. So

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Speaker 1: let's say he meets I'm just gonna guess about twenty

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Speaker 1: people per day over ten days. That means he's met

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Speaker 1: two hundred people. So we need to take that two

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Speaker 1: point five about a hundred sixty five million, and multiply

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Speaker 1: by two hundred. We get one in three hundred thirty

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Speaker 1: thousand chants that he would run into somebody who knows

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Speaker 1: his mom. But this is like our conservative estimate because

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Speaker 1: if it was his dad, it was his brother, his

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Speaker 1: best friend, his his significant other. We get this story

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Speaker 1: as well. So really the one ind is like our

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Speaker 1: longest estimate. But there's a lot of reasons it's probably

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Speaker 1: even shorter than this. And butter Wedge is a German

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Speaker 1: name and Czech Republic is right next to Germany, so

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Speaker 1: there's probably some underlying chop here, a lot of underlying

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Speaker 1: chop factors going on here that would potentially shorten this

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Speaker 1: even further. Um, you know, just things like being in

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Speaker 1: similar social circles, you're more likely to travel abroad, and

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Speaker 1: you're more likely to, uh, you know, travel to Europe,

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Speaker 1: so that could influence the odds even more to come

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Speaker 1: down from one and thirty thousand. I feel bad for

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Speaker 1: Josh that he was living in this world where he

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Speaker 1: thought this was an amazing, unbelievable coincidence. I feel bad

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Speaker 1: for all of us that every single time we do

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Speaker 1: this segment, I'm both amazed at the math you can

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Speaker 1: put into it. That you've found a paper of how

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Speaker 1: many people the average person knows, and you're able to

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Speaker 1: use that as the lynchpin for the modeling you're doing,

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Speaker 1: and also incredibly disappointed that some of these odds aren't

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Speaker 1: longer and that the serendipity of the world is is

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Speaker 1: ruined by the cold hard facts. Yeah, I'm Dr Buzzkill,

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Speaker 1: as they say, but if you think about it, I

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Speaker 1: think our Rick Flair's story ended up in the tens

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Speaker 1: of thousands, maybe like twenty five thousand, So three thirty

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Speaker 1: thousand for this one kind of makes sense because instead

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Speaker 1: of like going to New York during WrestleMania, this guy

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Speaker 1: is just randomly going to Prague, So we probably expect

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Speaker 1: an order of magnitude ballpark higher chances. So I think

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Speaker 1: this is right in that ballpark. The crazy thing about

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Speaker 1: things that happened so infrequently, like one in a million

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Speaker 1: or one in a billion, is there's still a billion

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Speaker 1: opportunities for them to happen, so eventually they do. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and that is my friends, while we bet big dogs

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Speaker 1: exactly by the way, Nick Giffen, another masterful performance for

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Speaker 1: what are the Odds? Our favorite news segment from the Favorites.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for coming on, brother, thanks for having me. As

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Speaker 1: always looking forward to the next one. Go Yard All

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Speaker 1: as promised, we're going into the mail bag first one

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Speaker 1: number one. A lot to discuss Brian in Charlotte Simon.

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Speaker 1: We've talked about this a lot, but based on their

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Speaker 1: offensive weapons in previous QB situation, is Baker Mayfield an

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Speaker 1: enormously impactful addition to Carolina? Or do I sound hopelessly naive?

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Speaker 1: I have some very specific thoughts on this. I'll keep

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Speaker 1: it quick that I would say, no, that we know

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Speaker 1: how it is. In the NFL, there's might be fifteen

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Speaker 1: really good quarterbacks. The rest are kind of all junk

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Speaker 1: and trying to figure it out. Apparently Baker doesn't work

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Speaker 1: really hard, doesn't study film just a lot. You're in

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Speaker 1: a lot of bad stuff come out of Cleveland about

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Speaker 1: him right now. So to me, Carolina, you're hoping to

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Speaker 1: get a good draft pick next year. It's a really

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Speaker 1: good draft class. Baker's a nice lynchpin, and it's also

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Speaker 1: you have nothing to lose. I think you guys give

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Speaker 1: a fourth round pick pain the five million. Either he

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Speaker 1: gets in the playoffs this year and he earns a job,

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Speaker 1: or who cares, he's terrible, you move on. So my

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Speaker 1: my take on this is that it's not impactful for

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Speaker 1: the offense. But I do think it's impactful for the

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Speaker 1: defense because you are getting a quarterback who is better

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Speaker 1: than Sam Donald, who will likely keep his offense on

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Speaker 1: the field for another series or two per game. That

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Speaker 1: will decrease the number of plays that Carolina's defense is

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Speaker 1: on the field. And to be honest, their stats last

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Speaker 1: year we're not very good. But if you take them

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Speaker 1: out of the context of having to play so many

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Speaker 1: plays and here just for that, their defense was actually

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Speaker 1: much better. So their defense can improve just by virtue

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Speaker 1: of having Baker being an above average quarterback versus Sam Donald.

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Speaker 1: That's my take. I would bet I would bet Carolina

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Speaker 1: over with with Baker Mayfield. That's all I'm saying. Corey

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Speaker 1: and Quincy Illinois did you want to say something. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's too early. I'll get into it once. It's August

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Speaker 1: with you on that one, all right, Corey and Quincy Illinois.

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Speaker 1: It's July and Green Bay's white Oltcors is out, Corpus,

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Speaker 1: Alan Lazar, Christian Wattson, Sammy Watkins, and Randall Cobb washed up.

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Speaker 1: There's still minus one seventy to win a division. Is

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Speaker 1: the NFC North really this bad? Yes? I mean the

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Speaker 1: simple answer, Uh, you think you're looking at Green Bead

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Speaker 1: the wrong way though. They're moving into a position of

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Speaker 1: a very ball dominant team. They're gonna run the ball

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Speaker 1: and they're gonna play amazing defense, and they have one

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Speaker 1: of the most accurate, smart quarterbacks that's ever played football. Like, literally,

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Speaker 1: this man does not turn the ball over. I know

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Speaker 1: we can make it's a big dealy lost Avanta Adams,

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Speaker 1: Like on third downs, that's gonna be a big deal.

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Speaker 1: But I don't know. To to me, it doesn't make

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Speaker 1: It's not that crazy. They're that number with what you're

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Speaker 1: looking at offense. I just think they're moving into a

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Speaker 1: different style. It's a different time in Roger's career. So no,

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Speaker 1: it's a it's a fair number. To me, I think

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Speaker 1: it's a if I put into my model, I might

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Speaker 1: have it at minus one fifty and it's only bump

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Speaker 1: at the minus one seventy just because people have betted

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Speaker 1: up to that number. Would you, I know we've talked

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Speaker 1: about this, uh Vikings value on them to win the

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Speaker 1: division instead of betting the Packers. No, because I mean

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Speaker 1: I think the Vikings do have value, but they won't

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Speaker 1: get a dime for me. I do like what they're

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Speaker 1: what I've read about the Vikings of the news, like

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Speaker 1: the new head coach, plus three and vandal. If you

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Speaker 1: do like the Vikings win this division, I just wouldn't touch.

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Speaker 1: I just think it should be closer, maybe plus four

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Speaker 1: or plus four fifty, just because Kirk, Like I don't

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Speaker 1: care if they had this high flying offense, it's still

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Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins. So to me, we talked about a chat.

355
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Speaker 1: I love the value of Detroit. You could have got them,

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Speaker 1: I think eleven o one. Now they're down to nine

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00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,120
Speaker 1: to one on Vanduel to win this division. I still

358
00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:31,080
Speaker 1: think it's good value on a Detroit team that you

359
00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:32,919
Speaker 1: can look on paper. Guys, they actually have them one

360
00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:35,119
Speaker 1: of the most expensive offenses and all football. I know

361
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:37,400
Speaker 1: it doesn't mean much, but at least you know they've

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00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:39,639
Speaker 1: spent the money and they have the offensive weapons compared

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Speaker 1: to the Screen Bay team that they're putting their money

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00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:45,160
Speaker 1: into that defense after giving Aaron Rodgers fifty million per year,

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Speaker 1: uh Meryl. Matthew Berry yesterday announced that he was leaving ESPN.

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Speaker 1: It has not been announced where he's going yet. Speculation,

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Speaker 1: according to Andrew marsh end in The New York Post,

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Speaker 1: is that he's signing a deal with NBC. Merril eight

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Speaker 1: eight asks, is Matthew Berry leaving ESPN a big deal?

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Speaker 1: Should I be feeling something about this? Are either of you? Simon?

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Speaker 1: Depends what Matthew means to. I mean, I I love

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Speaker 1: Matthew Berry for what he was where you know, I

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Speaker 1: was just really get into fantasy when I was younger,

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Speaker 1: and I think it might have been oh, seven oh eight,

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Speaker 1: when I was like getting out of high school. I

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Speaker 1: found his podcast um with a guy named Nate Rabbits,

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Speaker 1: who um, he's a paper pusher over the ESPN, And

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Speaker 1: I loved that combo of Nate Rabbits just shifting on

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Speaker 1: Matthew Berry because Matthew was such a cocky ship head,

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00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:42,680
Speaker 1: but it was just a really funny combo and Matthew,

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Speaker 1: you know, and his prime was really good at fantasy

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Speaker 1: All these years later. Yeah, I don't know if I'd

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Speaker 1: take all Matthew's fantasy advice, but I think for what

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Speaker 1: he's done for the industry, how can you not say

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Speaker 1: he is the godfather of fantasy football in America. He

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Speaker 1: changed everything, he brought it to the main screen of ESPN.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm I'm a big Matthew Berry fan. Again,

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Speaker 1: not for his advice, but for what he's done for

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Speaker 1: the industry. I just think you can't talk fantasy football

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00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 1: in America dot matt mentioning the magic talented Mr Rhodo

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Speaker 1: Matthew Berry. So it's funny you mentioned Nate, who I've

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Speaker 1: known forever and when I was at ESPN um uh

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Speaker 1: and I first took over ESPN Digital uh, Nate reported

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Speaker 1: to me, and then then he took on other roles

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Speaker 1: and and bigger jobs within the universe. And now he

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00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 1: actually has a lot of the then more. But my

397
00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 1: old job now is nature job plus other stuff that

398
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Speaker 1: he's doing. I said, he is a weasel. He did that.

399
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:48,639
Speaker 1: That was his role on the show. Right. Um, but look,

400
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Speaker 1: Matthew Berry leaving ESPN is a big deal because of

401
00:21:53,720 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 1: everything Simon just said. He created the industry from a

402
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 1: broad point of view. He pushed ESPN further into fantasy

403
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,119
Speaker 1: by force of his personality and by force of the

404
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:10,679
Speaker 1: quality of the content he was doing, and by the

405
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 1: audience he was gaining. Right, Like the reason I mean

406
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 1: it was about him and Joe Rogan, Like, I feel

407
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 1: like there's no podcast and no seven. I just think

408
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:21,880
Speaker 1: back to that time. You download it right off the internet.

409
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 1: There wasn't an app for podcasts, and like, by just

410
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:29,480
Speaker 1: but also digitally, the audience he built forced ESPN to

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00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:32,680
Speaker 1: pay attention to it. Right. ESPN now does fantasy shows

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00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:36,360
Speaker 1: on ESPN two. Matthews got his own show on ESPN plus,

413
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 1: Like his column was one of the biggest things ESPN

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00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:42,719
Speaker 1: would do every single season, his podcast most downloaded podcast

415
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 1: ESPN does. Like, of course, it's a big deal when

416
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Speaker 1: a guy of that caliber of talent decides to leave

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00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 1: what is the biggest brand in sports media? Um, The

418
00:22:56,440 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 1: flip side is the majority of ESPN's fantasy business is

419
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 1: built through its product and people signing up and and

420
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 1: what they're doing in the fantasy app to manage leagues,

421
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,960
Speaker 1: to build teams, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. It's got a really

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00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:16,680
Speaker 1: healthy fantasy business that fifteen years after Matthew is there,

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Speaker 1: he's at the tip of the sphere of I think

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00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 1: the fantasy business will end up being fine. Um, you

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Speaker 1: know the other questions that that that Merrow eighty eight

426
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 1: acts asks or should I be feeling something about this?

427
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,399
Speaker 1: Only if you only want to go to ESPN to

428
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 1: get Matthew Berry content. If you want to go to

429
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 1: ESPN to do other fantasy stuff and you still want

430
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 1: to get Matthew Berry content. Look, it's not like two

431
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:48,959
Speaker 1: thousand seven. You can get Matthew Berry through a newsletter,

432
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 1: his Fantasy Life newsletter. You can get him on Instagram,

433
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 1: you can get him on Twitter. Wherever he ends next,

434
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 1: you will be able to get him. So um, as

435
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 1: a fan, you should be thinking, I'm still gonna get

436
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,479
Speaker 1: Matthew Berry. And he's such a nice guy. Reach out

437
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 1: to him. I mean literally, that guy apparently reaches out

438
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,120
Speaker 1: to all of his fans. He's just a really good guy.

439
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 1: So don't you'll be all right? He's gonna be around.

440
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,359
Speaker 1: Matthew's not going where he's a Hall of Famer. It's true,

441
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:22,760
Speaker 1: totally true. Uh, Tony Hawkeye is Acre Stadium in Pittsburgh

442
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 1: now the worst name for an NFL field? Holy fuck? Yes,

443
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,399
Speaker 1: I don't even know what I'm saying it right, I

444
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 1: don't know what that is. I don't know what this

445
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 1: business does. It almost sounds like something you should see

446
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 1: in The Simpsons or South Park. Yeah, I mean for

447
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 1: someone like me, I feel offended, offended that they're making

448
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 1: people that dyslexy like I do even read that word.

449
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 1: I can't read it. I mean until Chad just pronounced it,

450
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,639
Speaker 1: I had no idea what he even sounded like. It's Hinesfield.

451
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,679
Speaker 1: I'll call it Hinesfield. I mean I probably called the

452
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 1: new Lincoln Financial Field. I probably called it the Vet

453
00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 1: for a good ten years before I started on it.

454
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,239
Speaker 1: The link even that just as lazy. So I just

455
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 1: think as fans were stubborn and it's hard to adjust

456
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:09,399
Speaker 1: to new new names of stadiums. Uh Frank, Frank twenty

457
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 1: Jimmy g will account for twenty seven million dollar salary

458
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 1: cap hit if he's on the Niners roster this season.

459
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 1: Handicap the odds he's cut Trader to their starting or

460
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 1: the starting QB for them this season. Um, I would

461
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 1: say handicap the odds that he's not on the roster

462
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 1: versus on the roster. I'd put it out like minus

463
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 1: five is not on the roster. I mean you traded

464
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 1: away multiple first round picks to move up to take Trey.

465
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 1: Trey has shown you he's a great athlete. Sure, he's

466
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 1: not the most accurate guy. Last year he was a rookie.

467
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 1: Like it's it's really hard to go from D one,

468
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 1: Double A to the NFL. It's a big adjustment. So

469
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:53,160
Speaker 1: to me, they watched tray Lands every day. It's kind

470
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,160
Speaker 1: of a thing where you know, not that I'm saying

471
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 1: this is a John Mtch's job, but it's a big deal.

472
00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 1: Like Jimmy G got him to an NFC championship last year. Again,

473
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:02,879
Speaker 1: that wasn't all because of Jimmy G, but he was

474
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 1: a part of it. He made big throws down the

475
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 1: stretch last year for them. So I am all four

476
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 1: shifting on Jimmy G just because I think he was

477
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 1: always overrated playing one of the best run blocking schemes

478
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 1: of all football. He's a pretty good quarterback. They're making

479
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 1: a big move here. They gotta get him off the roster.

480
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 1: They can't. They can't keep this going. And think Trey

481
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 1: Lance is gonna lead this team where Jimmy is just

482
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 1: gonna be ahead of him right now. Like Jimmy has

483
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:27,880
Speaker 1: been the league a lot longer, he knows this offense

484
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:29,959
Speaker 1: a lot better, like he's been with Kyle Shannon a

485
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,439
Speaker 1: long time. So to me, it just makes sense. Like

486
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,880
Speaker 1: you hear the Seattle rumors, you know, just just anything

487
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 1: would make sense, even my Ami, I know everyone's about

488
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:41,160
Speaker 1: tour right now. Health there. We already read it's it's

489
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 1: a make or break here for twa and that that town.

490
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 1: I don't hate bringing in Jimmy G being in a

491
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 1: backup in that that city for toa. So to me,

492
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:50,160
Speaker 1: I just can't see him lasting on this roster headed

493
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 1: into the season. Yeah, I I think minus five hundred

494
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 1: is actually a little a little short, to be honest.

495
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 1: Uh loves him, That's my whole thing though, Kyle Kyle

496
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,440
Speaker 1: like legit likes Jimmy like yeah, but they're just they're

497
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 1: not going into like they're not going to the season

498
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 1: with Jimmy G as the starting quarterback. They're not going

499
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 1: to go into the season into the season with him

500
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 1: on the roster, they haven't found takers for it yet.

501
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 1: They're trying to avoid sending him to Seattle. So I

502
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 1: think what they're really hoping for is training camp comes.

503
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 1: There's always quarterbacks getting hurt and some team is desperate

504
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 1: and they make it play for Jimmy g once training

505
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:31,359
Speaker 1: camp starts. Um Dan Underscore the Underscore Man ESPN or

506
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,159
Speaker 1: the story this week about the Ravens Calais campbell passion

507
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 1: for poker and his participation in this year's World Series

508
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 1: of Poker based on just their public personas, who do

509
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:43,719
Speaker 1: you think with the would be the best and worst

510
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 1: NFL poker players? Well, we all know the best liar

511
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,480
Speaker 1: is Aaron Rodgers, so I guess you would probably be

512
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 1: the best, right, I mean, that's a lot of poker,

513
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:54,919
Speaker 1: Like you have to have a good poker face. He

514
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:57,439
Speaker 1: got us all like none of us knew, like he

515
00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 1: was so smart with his wording, so quick with what

516
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 1: he said. Again, he got us good for what was

517
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 1: that three months? So yeah, I would say Rogers would

518
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 1: be the best. Um, who do you think the worst liars?

519
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 1: I guess he's at a league. I'd say Antonio Brown though,

520
00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 1: like that man just had no off switch, Like he

521
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:16,879
Speaker 1: just spoke whatever came to his mind at all times,

522
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:20,119
Speaker 1: which is the worst thing to be in poker. Um,

523
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 1: it's hard to say who's left in the league that's

524
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 1: still that crazy, that wouldn't shut up. Um. I was thinking,

525
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 1: I mean, I couldn't think of anybody. Now. I was thinking,

526
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 1: maybe it's funny you went to Liars. I went to

527
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 1: Liars and smart like Rodgers. But my point is, like

528
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 1: I immediately thought emotion in this spot, and so I

529
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 1: watched the match with Brady and Rogers versus Alan and Mahomes,

530
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 1: and Patrick Mahomes was like so cool and relaxed. He

531
00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 1: was popping open beers, having a good time, him never

532
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 1: sweating it, knowing he could just knock the funk out

533
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 1: of the ball when he wanted to. Was making clutch shots,

534
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 1: hitting clutch putts. Um. I also thought Aaron Rodgers, just

535
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:16,719
Speaker 1: because the guy is seems to be unflappable, but there

536
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 1: are moments where he gets too emotional and takes things personally.

537
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,400
Speaker 1: I don't think Mahomes does that, and so from an

538
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 1: emotional makeup point of view, it's hard not to argue

539
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 1: my Homes and obviously we're just talking about quarterbacks, but

540
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 1: in the moment, those are the people that need to

541
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 1: have the ball. Mahomes, I thought about Brady for sure.

542
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 1: Those are the two people that I thought might be

543
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:41,959
Speaker 1: the best the worst. I was also thinking emotion, and

544
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 1: like I was trying to think it for me. When

545
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 1: you're thinking emotion, it always goes to wide receivers or cornerbacks,

546
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 1: right Garrett, Like he's the only guy I could think of,

547
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 1: that bashed guy in the head with a helmet, Like

548
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 1: who would lose their cool? Like that's what like you

549
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 1: were saying, like who's the craziest? But I couldn't get

550
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 1: past a B. Like a B you don't get crazier.

551
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 1: He's the craziest player ever. We've never had a guy

552
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 1: take off their stuff and you jumping jacks and waved

553
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 1: the people out the fields like he did the meadow lands.

554
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 1: So it's just a B is the craziest. I would

555
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 1: also go with like is it Jalen Ramsey or is

556
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 1: it a very sort of emotional cornerback Eli Apple? Dude,

557
00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 1: Eli Apple was clutching and pulling and do whatever you

558
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 1: could when the pressure got at the worst, right yeah,

559
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 1: but I mean France, Dame. He's going against like the

560
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 1: best receivers in the world, so well he might be

561
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 1: going against the best poker players in the world. And

562
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 1: you know Eli Apple versus phill Ivy. Come on, all right,

563
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 1: is there a player worth betting for m v P

564
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 1: right now at higher than fifteen to one odds. Let's

565
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 1: see we're talking about you've kind of missed a boat, buddy.

566
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 1: We're like, you want to bet these things in February,

567
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 1: March April. You want to get our early jump on

568
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 1: the books, and you're you're projecting out so hurts. I

569
00:30:57,680 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 1: think he was eighty to one. I'm looking at Vandal

570
00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 1: right now, he's twenty five to one. That's tough. That

571
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 1: that's really tough. You went from one tray lands a

572
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 1: hundred fift one down to and a lot of books.

573
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 1: Now he's down a forty one on Fandel again, you

574
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 1: miss big numbers on that one. We're just going strict value.

575
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,959
Speaker 1: You know, Lamar Jackson one playing for his contract. He's

576
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: already won an m v P before. That's that's a

577
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 1: fair price for a former m v P and a

578
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 1: guy who had his team as a one seed last

579
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 1: year before he got hurt and his team went one

580
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 1: of four down the stretch. Yeah, that's the kind of

581
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 1: thing you're looking for. You're looking at short odds with

582
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 1: guys who are bumped down a little bit just because

583
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 1: people are lowing them because of what happened last year.

584
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 1: Wats is a really good one for that. Where guys

585
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:42,400
Speaker 1: above him, you're not getting any good value on Justin

586
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 1: Herbert right, like he's been bet up now. He's ten

587
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 1: to one. That's no good. Russell Wilson twelve to one,

588
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,239
Speaker 1: that's that's too much for a guy. It's nuver one

589
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 1: m v P before moved all the way up there.

590
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 1: So you know, I've had a couple of pros talk

591
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 1: about mac Jones. I like the way his body looks

592
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 1: and everything like that. I just don't know if mac

593
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 1: Jones's weapons around him. Again, it's four to one, that's

594
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 1: good odds. He needs weapons, right, Like, who's Mac Jones

595
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 1: throwing fifty touchdowns to when you look at that team, like,

596
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 1: that's what you need to do to win m v

597
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 1: P in this league, Like, you gotta be incredible. So

598
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 1: to me, if I'm just going pure upside, guys, you know,

599
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 1: way down the list me and Chad talked about. I

600
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 1: like Trevor Lawrence. See he's get a whole new offensive scheme,

601
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 1: number one pick, second year leap. I know it sounds crazy.

602
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 1: You saw it happen with Patrick Mahomes, right, We saw

603
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 1: my homes come in and be this incredible kid one

604
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 1: MVP right, he was fifty two one that year he

605
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 1: want to MVP for the Chiefs the year lamore one.

606
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 1: His second year he was fifty to one and that

607
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 1: Ravens offense. So it sounds crazy right now we're talking

608
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 1: in July. That's what you're looking for. You're looking for

609
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 1: a second, third year quarterback to pop. That's a crazy

610
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 1: long odds. We've seen it happen before, so looking for

611
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:50,360
Speaker 1: some craziness. Trevor Lawrence and he had the one. If

612
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 1: you're a Jets fan, I would not put a single

613
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 1: dime on Zack Wilson, but I get it. If you're

614
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 1: a Jets fan, you want to believe in this kid.

615
00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 1: So to me, look at these really long odds because

616
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 1: that's what you want to invest your money. You don't

617
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 1: have these short odds, So the shorts I'd go on

618
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 1: a little more. Twenty one of them. Are the Ravens

619
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 1: still twenty to win the Super Bowl? I know they're

620
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 1: getting a lot of heat, a lot of sort of

621
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 1: smart conversation about them. I like your Jalen Hurts conversation

622
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,719
Speaker 1: as well. That wraps it up for this one, Simon.

623
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 1: This has been the favorites from the Volume podcast network.

624
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 1: I want to thank Nick Giffen for coming on to

625
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 1: talk about what are the odds. I want to thank

626
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter for battling his COVID his son poisoning is hangover.

627
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 1: I want to thank Matt Mitchell as always, download us

628
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 1: from Apple podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast,

629
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 1: rate review, subscribe to give us five stars, say whatever

630
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 1: you want and the feedback. Feedback is a gift. Until

631
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 1: next time. I love you,