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Speaker 1: welcome to hoops Tonight, presented by fan Duel here at
Speaker 1: the volume. Happy Wednesday, everybody. I hope all of you
Speaker 1: guys are having a great week so far. Real basketball
Speaker 1: is right around the corner, guys. Tomorrow is September one,
Speaker 1: and September the Golden State Warriors play the Washington Wizards
Speaker 1: in a preseason game in Japan. That is how close
Speaker 1: we are to real basketball. So with that in mind,
Speaker 1: I'm ready to stop looking backwards. I'm ready to stop reminiscing,
Speaker 1: and I'm ready to start looking forward. So we're gonna
Speaker 1: be doing our season previews. We're gonna do the power
Speaker 1: Ranking style, covering the top fifteen teams in the league,
Speaker 1: starting with number fifteen today. I spent a lot of
Speaker 1: time in this series, had a lot of fun doing it.
Speaker 1: I really think you guys are going to enjoy it.
Speaker 1: Before we get going, follows right around the corner, and
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Speaker 1: post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply. And
Speaker 1: on that note, we could talk some basketball. So I
Speaker 1: want to give you guys a couple of just precursors
Speaker 1: to kind of let you know the format of this,
Speaker 1: uh this series, so that you're in the loop the
Speaker 1: whole way through. So I split the teams into tears
Speaker 1: um and I considered seventeen teams, but I had to
Speaker 1: pick only fifteen for the sake of the series. So
Speaker 1: the two teams that got squeezed here are the Toronto
Speaker 1: Raptors and the Atlanta Hawks. So Raptors fans and Hawks fans,
Speaker 1: I apologize in advance we won't be doing deep dives
Speaker 1: for them before the season, but I do promise that
Speaker 1: we will get into those teams plenty and into great
Speaker 1: detail during the season. Also, don't pay to too much
Speaker 1: attention to the rankings this far down. It's all splitting hairs,
Speaker 1: and I view them in a tier of what I
Speaker 1: would call non contenders. So I split them into four tiers,
Speaker 1: and the non contenders are the teams that I don't
Speaker 1: think have any chance to win the title regardless of
Speaker 1: what happens during the season. Obviously, I consider the Hawks
Speaker 1: and the Raptors in that group, as well as three
Speaker 1: other teams, including who we're talking about today. After that,
Speaker 1: the next tier up I have is punchers chance contenders.
Speaker 1: These are teams that I don't think have enough talent
Speaker 1: necessarily to hang with the top teams in the league,
Speaker 1: but they've got a crazy talented superstar that could get
Speaker 1: hot and carry them through a series or maybe two superstars,
Speaker 1: or there's something with the team where if they get hot,
Speaker 1: they could potentially knock someone out of something's break right
Speaker 1: above that, I have the if things go right contenders.
Speaker 1: These are teams that have tons of talent. When you
Speaker 1: look at the roster on paper, you're like, man, they're
Speaker 1: just as good as the top teams in the league.
Speaker 1: But there's tons of question marks to go with that.
Speaker 1: Whether that's health question marks, whether that's personality question marks,
Speaker 1: whether it's you don't like or I'm not a huge
Speaker 1: fan of the coach or the system, or what their
Speaker 1: basketball identity is. Those are teams that talents not the issue.
Speaker 1: They just need things to break right for them within
Speaker 1: the locker room and on the court for them to
Speaker 1: win the title. And then, obviously, my top tier is
Speaker 1: gonna be top tier contenders. These are bona fide contenders.
Speaker 1: If anything goes their way during the season, they will
Speaker 1: absolutely be and play, probably playing in the conference finals.
Speaker 1: And these are the teams that i've you most likely
Speaker 1: to win the title. So we'll all kind of as
Speaker 1: we're working our way through the videos, I'll kind of
Speaker 1: inform you which tier the team's landing. Today. We're starting
Speaker 1: with number fifteen, the Chicago Bulls, again a non contender
Speaker 1: in the non contender tier, but we are going to
Speaker 1: dive deep into them on both ends of the floor.
Speaker 1: To give you an idea of how these videos are
Speaker 1: gonna be structured. Will briefly touch on last season and
Speaker 1: what they accomplished, how things finished. We will go through
Speaker 1: their key offseason changes, so who they let go, who
Speaker 1: they signed, who they traded for, who they drafted, so on,
Speaker 1: and so forth, changes to the roster um. Then we're
Speaker 1: gonna go into what they do as in terms of
Speaker 1: their basketball team's identity on both ends of the floor,
Speaker 1: so what they like to do on offense, what they
Speaker 1: like to do on defense. After that, we will go
Speaker 1: into what I believe is the best case scenario for
Speaker 1: this team during that season, and then after that we'll
Speaker 1: go into the worst case scenario for this season, and
Speaker 1: that at the end, we'll go through what I believe
Speaker 1: is the biggest X factor for each team. So, as
Speaker 1: I said, we're gonna be going through all of those
Speaker 1: sections for each team, starting with the Chicago Bulls today.
Speaker 1: So the Chicago Bulls were in offense last year offensive
Speaker 1: rating again per one hundred possessions twenty three in defense
Speaker 1: the ugliest staff for Bulls fans, as they were two
Speaker 1: and twenty one in twenty three games versus the top
Speaker 1: four seeds in both conferences, so when they played the
Speaker 1: best teams, they got handled pretty consistently. They did have
Speaker 1: a lot of health issues during the season, though, involving
Speaker 1: their backcourt with Alex Crusoe and Alonzo Ball. That is
Speaker 1: important context there. They were gentlemen. Swept by Milwaukee went
Speaker 1: exactly as I expected. This is the Chicago Bulls team
Speaker 1: that does not like to operate from the perimeter. They'd
Speaker 1: like to operate close to the basket, and the Bucks
Speaker 1: their defensive structure is built around taking away the paint
Speaker 1: and giving up perimeter shots. This was the team that
Speaker 1: attempted the least threes versus the team that allows the
Speaker 1: most threes. So the Chicago Bulls were a really bad
Speaker 1: matchup for this specific Milwaukee Bucks team and they just
Speaker 1: got killed. And then on the other end of the floor,
Speaker 1: they just got destroyed by Milwaukee size. This is a
Speaker 1: small Chicago Bulls team that they attempted to address this offseason. Milwaukee.
Speaker 1: It was just again a really bad matchup. Aside from
Speaker 1: a hot shooting Damara Rosen game in Milwaukee Game two.
Speaker 1: They didn't really have a chance to compete in any
Speaker 1: of the games, so it's a rough matchup. But at
Speaker 1: the same time, two versus the top seeds thirteenth in
Speaker 1: offense defense, they just weren't good enough to really do
Speaker 1: any damage in that postseason. Key offseason changes they signed
Speaker 1: Andre Drummond to the Mini mid level exception. This was
Speaker 1: a predictable response to them getting destroyed on the interior
Speaker 1: by Milwaukee. They drafted day and Terry, a guy I
Speaker 1: really like. Again. You guys know, I'm born and raised
Speaker 1: in Tussons, still live in Tusson to this day, although
Speaker 1: I've lived in other places. Um day and Terry came
Speaker 1: through the University of Arizona, so obviously watched him a
Speaker 1: lot while he was here. Lanky wing, really good physical tools,
Speaker 1: especially on the defensive Endy six ft seven with a
Speaker 1: seven foot one wing span, he actually made the All
Speaker 1: Defense team this past year for the Pac twelve. He's
Speaker 1: also really really good at making reads with the basketball
Speaker 1: in his hands. He was one of the best assist
Speaker 1: to turnover guys in college this year. That kind of
Speaker 1: all means he will project to a good role player
Speaker 1: wing in the NBA, a guy who can defend multiple
Speaker 1: position asians and can attack close outs. Well. Obviously he's
Speaker 1: gonna have to put on some muscle and become a
Speaker 1: better shooter. He's got a little bit of a hitch
Speaker 1: and his jump shot at this point. But I do
Speaker 1: think he'll be a really interesting player in the future
Speaker 1: on the wing in the NBA. And then they lost
Speaker 1: Tristan Thompson and Troy Brown Jr. Those were the two
Speaker 1: primary rotation guys from their playoff run that that aren't
Speaker 1: around anymore. If you look at the depth chart and
Speaker 1: I'll put it up on the screen here for you guys. Uh,
Speaker 1: these are just guys that I predict will be in
Speaker 1: the rotation. Obviously the roster is deeper than this, but
Speaker 1: Lonzo Ball as a guard, Alex Caruso as a guard,
Speaker 1: Kobe White as a guard and I had assume to
Speaker 1: soon move if I'm pronouncing that correctly. As a guard.
Speaker 1: On the wing, they have Zach Levine, DeMar de Rosen,
Speaker 1: Pat Williams Dale and Terry and Derrick Jones Jr. And
Speaker 1: then the bigs Niko Lavusovic and Andre Drummond in the
Speaker 1: place of Trisian Thompson. So if you look at what
Speaker 1: they do on the offensive end of the floor, this
Speaker 1: is a team that wants Zach Levine and DeMar dear
Speaker 1: Rose and attack, acking with an advantage. This is an
Speaker 1: important detail of offensive structure in the NBA really on
Speaker 1: all levels, that the best teams always do really, really well.
Speaker 1: And uh Billy Donovan has done a good job of
Speaker 1: building an offense that is designed to get their best
Speaker 1: players with an advantage. One of the biggest complaints I
Speaker 1: had with the Lakers last year when because again for
Speaker 1: those of guys who don't know, I covered the Lakers
Speaker 1: for two seasons before I started working for the Volume. Obviously,
Speaker 1: now we covered the entire league. But when I was
Speaker 1: covering the Lakers, they were a bad team in this regard.
Speaker 1: It was not Frank Vogel strength. They did not put
Speaker 1: Russell Westbrook, Lebron James, Anthony Davis, Dennis shrid Er, whoever
Speaker 1: it was during those during that era. They did not
Speaker 1: put them in positions where they had an advantage. They
Speaker 1: were too frequently stagnant and attacking a set defense. Again, guys,
Speaker 1: if if I'm guarding you and I'm up on you
Speaker 1: and I'm in your handle pocket and I'm disrupting you,
Speaker 1: and you try to attack me, It's gonna be a
Speaker 1: lot harder for you to score on me then if
Speaker 1: I'm closing our at you, or if I'm chasing you
Speaker 1: over the top of a screen, so that when you
Speaker 1: first get the basketball, I'm out of position and you
Speaker 1: have an advantage. And basically, the Bulls weaponized Vosovich through
Speaker 1: ball screens, dribble handoffs, and off ball screens to get
Speaker 1: DeMar de Rosen and Zach Lavin coming off of curls,
Speaker 1: primarily so that they can work into the lane and
Speaker 1: get to the shots that they like off the dribble,
Speaker 1: but with an advantage against their defender. Nick Nick Vussevich
Speaker 1: in particular, his skill set makes that work because he's
Speaker 1: a he's perceived as a shooter. Perception is everything in
Speaker 1: the NBA. He actually wasn't a great perimeter shooter. Last year.
Speaker 1: He only shot thirty one from three, just undert on
Speaker 1: catch and shoot three, so in the results it wasn't
Speaker 1: showing up. But he was attempting almost five threes per game.
Speaker 1: So he's a high volume guy and the league perceived
Speaker 1: him and guarded him like he was a shooter. Again,
Speaker 1: I've talked to you about this on the show, but
Speaker 1: that matters way more than actual shot result. For years
Speaker 1: there region Rondo was hitting close to from his three
Speaker 1: from the three point line, but nobody was guarding him
Speaker 1: out there, so all it was really manifesting as is
Speaker 1: on these wide open threes that would disrupt the flow
Speaker 1: of an offense. Kyle Kuzma, on the other end, always
Speaker 1: shot in the low thirties until his last year with
Speaker 1: the Lakers, but he was aggressive, He looked confident. His
Speaker 1: perception around the league was that of a shooter, and
Speaker 1: so teams would guard him as though he was a shooter.
Speaker 1: Nikola Useovich just guarded as a shooter, and that makes
Speaker 1: it really difficult to guard those screening actions. So let's
Speaker 1: just look at off ball screens for instance, because we've
Speaker 1: we spent a ton of time talking about on ball
Speaker 1: actions on this show. But let's say that I've got
Speaker 1: zach Lavine in the left corner and Voussovich is gonna
Speaker 1: go down and set a screen for him. Alex Caruso's
Speaker 1: got the top at the ball at the top of
Speaker 1: the key, and he's gonna hit Zach Lvin coming off
Speaker 1: of that screen. So typically what a screen defender will
Speaker 1: do is they will either hedge, so they will come
Speaker 1: out from the screen to force Zach Levine to come
Speaker 1: further out rather than curling around, or they'll drop to
Speaker 1: stop the curl so that when Zach Levine curls around,
Speaker 1: he's curling right into a defender. That's what you want
Speaker 1: to do in that situation. But nik Lavusevitch will frequently
Speaker 1: slip those screening actions to the three point line and
Speaker 1: the Bulls will hit him in those spots because he's
Speaker 1: a high volume three point shooter. As a result, it
Speaker 1: makes it harder for that screen defender to hedge or
Speaker 1: to drop as the guy's curling around, because he's leaving
Speaker 1: nick Luseovitch wide open for a jump shot. So as
Speaker 1: a result, Levine and de Rozan are frequently coming off
Speaker 1: of these pin downs and dribble handoffs and things like
Speaker 1: that with a lot of space to operate that if
Speaker 1: you watch the Bulls on offense, that's their primary attack,
Speaker 1: whether it's Lonzo when he's healthier, Alex Crusoe ran point
Speaker 1: for most of the end of the season, he'd bring
Speaker 1: the ball up the floor and basically hit DeRozan or
Speaker 1: Levine off of a screening action. That would be how
Speaker 1: things would start. And then as the defense would collapse
Speaker 1: they and get into rotation, they would attack closeouts around
Speaker 1: that to get what they want. The strength of this roster,
Speaker 1: this roster has well, I'll go after we ripped through
Speaker 1: these all kind of briefly um summarize what their strengths
Speaker 1: and weaknesses are. But one of the strengths of this
Speaker 1: roster is with Lonzo Ball, with Alex Crusoe, with Kobe White,
Speaker 1: with Pat Williams, with the Marda Rose and with Zach Levine.
Speaker 1: They have a lot of guys who are really skilled
Speaker 1: from the perimeter. You know, Alex Crusoe is a fantastic cutter,
Speaker 1: and he's a very good passer for the position at
Speaker 1: this point, and he's got good size a Lonzo Ball
Speaker 1: is an excellent passer in open space situations. Kobe White skilled,
Speaker 1: Pat Pat Williams is showing a lot of Polish. I've
Speaker 1: been really interested watching him this summer. That puts them
Speaker 1: in a position where they have a lot of players
Speaker 1: who can extend the advantage. So you can imagine Zach
Speaker 1: Levine comes comes off of that curl. The big doesn't
Speaker 1: help because he's staying home with Vosovic. Levine gets into
Speaker 1: the lane, the team helps, Levine will kick to the corner. Now,
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, you've got three, four or five
Speaker 1: guys on the floor that are great at extending the advantage,
Speaker 1: attacking that close out, further compromising the defense to get
Speaker 1: an extremely high quality shot. You know, uh Alonso. One
Speaker 1: of the reasons why I think it's so important for
Speaker 1: him to get back is when you look at this team,
Speaker 1: they should be a better fast break team. They should
Speaker 1: be a team that plays with more pace. They were
Speaker 1: fourteenth and pace this year in thirteen and fast breakpoints
Speaker 1: scored per one hundred possessions. When you look at their
Speaker 1: roster construction, they're not a big team, right like Vussovitch
Speaker 1: last year was their only competent big They played Tristan Thompson,
Speaker 1: but he wasn't great. Drummond changes that a little bit.
Speaker 1: But what they are is a fast and athletic team.
Speaker 1: You know, Alonso is a good athlete. Alex Cruso is
Speaker 1: a great athlete for the position. Zach Levine is one
Speaker 1: of the best athletes we have in the league. Demard
Speaker 1: Rose an excellent athlete. This is a team that should
Speaker 1: get out in transition. More Lonzo Ball coming back will
Speaker 1: help that a lot, because he's not a traditional point
Speaker 1: guard in the sense that he's not the kind of
Speaker 1: guy that's going to break you down against the set
Speaker 1: defense to get to the looks that you want. But
Speaker 1: he's great in space, so he's one of the best
Speaker 1: guards in the league. Yet pushing the break, he doesn't uh.
Speaker 1: Every time that he sees an outlet pass up the floor,
Speaker 1: a wing running on the left side or on the
Speaker 1: right side, or a big running the floor, he lets
Speaker 1: it fly, knowing that he can get it back to
Speaker 1: run offense if the defense does get back and shut
Speaker 1: down the break. But getting him back in there to
Speaker 1: help them push the break more will help them actually
Speaker 1: take advantage of the strengths of their roster in terms
Speaker 1: of speed and athleticism. Alex Crusoe excellent cutting without the
Speaker 1: basketball um. That was another really interesting thing that showed
Speaker 1: up to me on film, and I remember that a
Speaker 1: lot with the Lakers. He had amazing chemistry with Lebron
Speaker 1: James as a cutter. Again, when it comes to spacing,
Speaker 1: Spacing isn't just about shooting. Spacing isn't just about being
Speaker 1: a threat from the perimeter. Spacing is about being a
Speaker 1: threat so that your defender has to stay attentive to you. Obviously,
Speaker 1: even if you are a great shooter, a good defender
Speaker 1: that has a good amount of athleticism to close out
Speaker 1: can position himself far enough off of you that he
Speaker 1: feels comfortable recovering in case of a pass. But if
Speaker 1: you stay in motion, moving without the basketball, whether that's
Speaker 1: relocating as a shooter or in the case of Alex Crudiso,
Speaker 1: cutting into the basket, it forces the defender to be
Speaker 1: more attentive to you and makes it harder for him
Speaker 1: to be available as a help defender. They the biggest
Speaker 1: weakness of this particular team on the offensive end of
Speaker 1: the floor is they were the only team in the
Speaker 1: league last year that attempted fewer than thirty threes per game.
Speaker 1: That um specifically was the weakness that costs them against Milwaukee.
Speaker 1: But really it's just a it's a it's an inefficiency
Speaker 1: in the analytics of basketball. You guys know how I
Speaker 1: feel about analytics. I don't like catch all metrics. I
Speaker 1: don't like trying to simplify multiply multiple complicated basketball concepts
Speaker 1: into one number. Not only do I think that's blasphemous,
Speaker 1: I think it's impossible, right, But I do believe in
Speaker 1: analytics in isolated situations. So, for instance, if I can
Speaker 1: tell a player like, hey, when you post up on
Speaker 1: the left block, you typically get this amount of points
Speaker 1: per possession versus when you post up on the right block,
Speaker 1: that's helpful analytics. Shot value is helpful analytics. It's a
Speaker 1: simple matter of math. A three point shot is worth
Speaker 1: one and a half times as many points as a
Speaker 1: two point shot. They should, naturally, as a result of that,
Speaker 1: be a consistent part of your diet offensively. For them
Speaker 1: to be last in the NBA and three point attempts
Speaker 1: uh in um uh in three point attempts, that shows
Speaker 1: that they they're they're not taking advantage of the math
Speaker 1: advantage that they should be able to have. And they've
Speaker 1: got they've got enough guys on the team that can
Speaker 1: shoot that they should be taking more than they take.
Speaker 1: What are they take instead? A ton of mid range
Speaker 1: pull up jump shots. They attempted twenty two point six
Speaker 1: mid range shot per game, which led the NBA last year,
Speaker 1: so they attempted more even than the Brooklyn Nets, Kyrie
Speaker 1: Irving and Kevin Durant, without being nearly as good as
Speaker 1: those two players at that particular type of shot. Derosan
Speaker 1: takes ten midrange shots per game, Zach Lavine and nicolabus
Speaker 1: Fitch combined to take an additional seven per game, So
Speaker 1: just between their stars, they're taking seventeen mid range jump
Speaker 1: shots per game, So they take almost as many mid
Speaker 1: range jump shots as they do threes per game. That's
Speaker 1: not that that that's just not good offensive process. With
Speaker 1: that particular type of shot profile, it's going to be difficult,
Speaker 1: difficult to succeed unless you're Kevin Freakin Durant and Kyrie Irving,
Speaker 1: two of the best offensive players that have ever played
Speaker 1: in the NBA. So that's just kind of a brief
Speaker 1: look at what they do on the offensive end of
Speaker 1: the four. They're not good enough defensively to cover for
Speaker 1: those types of offensive limitations. They need to push the
Speaker 1: ball in transition more, they need to hunt more three
Speaker 1: point shots. On the defensive end of the four, they
Speaker 1: are a hard help and recover team. They do this
Speaker 1: because they have physical mismatches at almost every position. Their
Speaker 1: wings that they like to play zac Lavine and Demard
Speaker 1: Rosen are either thin or small. Patrick Williams is an
Speaker 1: interesting player. Will get into him a little bit more later,
Speaker 1: But Nikolavusevich is completely overmatched on the interior. The only
Speaker 1: place where they match up well with teams defensively is
Speaker 1: on the perimeter with Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. So
Speaker 1: as a result, they have to offer a ton of help,
Speaker 1: which is fine. They do a good job in rotation
Speaker 1: because they've got good athletes. They rotate well. The problem
Speaker 1: is is when you live in rotation, when you're constantly
Speaker 1: in rotation, the defense will eventually break you down, and
Speaker 1: they do. That's why they were twenty three defense this year.
Speaker 1: They double team the opponent of the opposing star almost
Speaker 1: every single time. They defend the pick and roll with
Speaker 1: three players. What that What that means is the vast
Speaker 1: majority of pick and roll coverages are designed to try
Speaker 1: to defend two on two so that you don't have
Speaker 1: to offer help. The problem is is nick Lusevich is
Speaker 1: not a great pick and roll defender, so as a result,
Speaker 1: he's just not capable of bring enough ground on the interior.
Speaker 1: To cover a rollman and a guard coming over the
Speaker 1: top of a screen, so they almost always have to
Speaker 1: bring that third defender out of the week side corner
Speaker 1: to help to tag on the roller so that Vosovic
Speaker 1: can be up against the ball handler coming over the
Speaker 1: top of the screen. That just puts them in a
Speaker 1: rotation even more frequently. That's the uh that that just
Speaker 1: as a lack of strong front court defensive personnel, they
Speaker 1: had better front court defenders, they wouldn't have to do
Speaker 1: that as often. Milwaukee in particular, use this to frequently
Speaker 1: generate size mismatches. That was why they were punishing him
Speaker 1: so much on the interior on defense. The one thing
Speaker 1: that I really appreciate about Billy Donovan's scheme is he
Speaker 1: knows that they don't have a strong interior defense. So
Speaker 1: what Analytically the two most valuable shots in basketball are
Speaker 1: layups in threes. So if you're not going to succeed
Speaker 1: guarding the basket, where would be the next best place
Speaker 1: for you to devote your energy and attention the three
Speaker 1: point line. The Chicago Bulls only allowed thirty two point
Speaker 1: three three point attempts per one possessions, which was best
Speaker 1: in the league. Last year, so that's where they make
Speaker 1: up for their week interior defense. They allowed fifty point
Speaker 1: three points in the paint per one hundred possessions, which
Speaker 1: was twenty four in the league this year, So they
Speaker 1: do defend the three point line well at least, which
Speaker 1: is something that's a good foundational piece. They'll need to
Speaker 1: learn to defend the interior or better if they're ever
Speaker 1: going to be a team that can contend, but at
Speaker 1: least that's a decent foundation. The interesting part about this
Speaker 1: Chicago Bulls defense is it's not really fair necessarily to
Speaker 1: evaluate them based on last year's results without long zoo ball,
Speaker 1: because the whole construct of that team was designed to
Speaker 1: make up for Nick Lussovic's problems as an interior defender
Speaker 1: by defending at the point of attack better. So if
Speaker 1: you lack interior size, if you don't have a great
Speaker 1: rim per hector, you can still have an elite defense
Speaker 1: by being a great perimeter contained team. The best example
Speaker 1: of this is the Los Angeles Clippers, a team that
Speaker 1: has never had a dominant interior UH presidents during this
Speaker 1: Kawhi Leonard Era I like a Vika zoobas He's just
Speaker 1: not that guy. He's a good defensive big, but he's
Speaker 1: not a shutdown defensive big, and he doesn't play enough
Speaker 1: minutes for it to matter. They just contain on the perimeter.
Speaker 1: Paul George Kawhi, Leonard Marcus Morris, you know, Reggie Jackson,
Speaker 1: these guys, Nick Patome, these guys sit down in a
Speaker 1: stance and they contain their man and make it difficult
Speaker 1: for them to get to the basket. So the lack
Speaker 1: of a rim protector doesn't actually matter. That was what
Speaker 1: this Bulls team was supposed to be a Lonzo Ball
Speaker 1: is one of the best defensive guards in the league.
Speaker 1: Alex Caruso is one of the best defensive guards in
Speaker 1: the league. With the two of them on the floor,
Speaker 1: they can limit dribble penetration, defend pick and roll really well,
Speaker 1: and make things easier on Vussovitch. And when the two
Speaker 1: of them were on the floor, they did that. They
Speaker 1: had a one oh two point two defensive rating with
Speaker 1: those two on the floor only in four D fifty
Speaker 1: nine minutes, but that's a significant sample size. Where they
Speaker 1: were an excellent defensive team, one or two point two
Speaker 1: would be one of it would be among the better
Speaker 1: defensive lineups. In the league. That's the value of point
Speaker 1: of attack defense. But watch how it drops. Take just
Speaker 1: Lonzo out of the picture, their defensive rating goes from
Speaker 1: one or two point two to one fifteen point one.
Speaker 1: Take Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball out of the picture,
Speaker 1: and it rises to one seven team point one. So
Speaker 1: they can't defend without both of those two guys on
Speaker 1: the floor. That's concerning because Lonzo Ball has had a
Speaker 1: lot of health issues over the years, and who knows
Speaker 1: if that's something that's going to be chronic or something
Speaker 1: that he can get over. The other big thing that
Speaker 1: holds them back on the defensive end of the floor
Speaker 1: is all three of their stars are not defensive minded players.
Speaker 1: DeRozan and Levin are very good athletes, but they they're
Speaker 1: not They're not staunch defensive players. Now, I wanted to
Speaker 1: get into this just for a minute, because there are
Speaker 1: a lot of good athletes in the league that don't
Speaker 1: translate to great defense of players. The best example of
Speaker 1: this was Andrew Wiggetts early in his career, and now
Speaker 1: I think he's one of the better perimeter defenders in
Speaker 1: the entire game, and it's because he's learned the delicate
Speaker 1: balance of of being physical on the defensive end without fouling.
Speaker 1: If you're a good athlete, you can be a good
Speaker 1: defensive player, but you won't be unless you're willing to
Speaker 1: get physical. And so many offensive minded players they shy
Speaker 1: away from contact on the defensive end of the floor
Speaker 1: for good reason. They have big offensive responsibilities. They don't
Speaker 1: want to waste energy getting into a physical melee. Sixty
Speaker 1: possessions a game on the defense and a defensive end
Speaker 1: of the floor. I get that, but that's the difference
Speaker 1: between the greats and the goods. The great stars in
Speaker 1: the NBA, they are willing to devote resources in that direction.
Speaker 1: They're willing to be physically imposing defensive players, and as
Speaker 1: a result, they help their teams on that end, even
Speaker 1: though they have less energy for the offensive end. It
Speaker 1: helps the team and aggregate. You know, zac Lavine is
Speaker 1: very thin, but he can be a little bit more
Speaker 1: physical than he's been. Demarta Rosen is a good, strong athlete.
Speaker 1: He should be a much much better defensive player than
Speaker 1: he is. The best example to kind of give you
Speaker 1: guys an idea is like you drive to the basket
Speaker 1: at me, I can either slide with you, and then
Speaker 1: when you really start to get aggressive, just give ground
Speaker 1: and get into rotation. Or I can choose to hold
Speaker 1: my ground, meaning maybe I stick my hand out there
Speaker 1: and hand check you a little bit. Sometimes they will
Speaker 1: get called a foul A lot of times. It won't
Speaker 1: when you hit my shoulder. Maybe instead of giving ground
Speaker 1: with my shoulder, I hold my ground with my shoulder.
Speaker 1: Sometimes I'll get a foul call. Most of the time
Speaker 1: I won't. Being more willing to hold your ground on
Speaker 1: the perimeter will be so much again, like they're the
Speaker 1: twenty third ranked defense. Alonzo is coming back, but this
Speaker 1: team will never be as good as they need to
Speaker 1: be on the defensive end of the floor until Demarta,
Speaker 1: Rosen and zach Lavin take defensive perimeter, contain more seriously
Speaker 1: on the defensive end of the floor, and then Nick Vusovic,
Speaker 1: it's not really a technique. He's just bad. He's just
Speaker 1: completely overmatched physically at the position. He's not as big
Speaker 1: as the biggest bigs, and he's not as athletic as
Speaker 1: the most athletic bigs. So on a night in, night
Speaker 1: out basis, he's just completely overmatched physically. Andre Drummond look,
Speaker 1: I covered him with the Lakers, I've covered him throughout
Speaker 1: the league over the last few years. He's he has
Speaker 1: his moments defensively, but for the most part, he's not
Speaker 1: a guy you can count on in that regard. The
Speaker 1: only you know, the interesting guy to watch, uh for
Speaker 1: Chicago's development is gonna be Pat Williams. He's there only
Speaker 1: really physically imposing, athletic defensive forward. Now, Janice obliterated him
Speaker 1: in that first round playoff series, but he also was
Speaker 1: toying with Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown in in those
Speaker 1: matchups in the conference semi, so I don't look too
Speaker 1: much into that. But he's the He's the guy to
Speaker 1: watch looking forward. If he can put on a little
Speaker 1: bit more muscle and become the defensive player that he's
Speaker 1: capable of, that will go a long way towards helping them.
Speaker 1: But the bottom line is on the defensive end of
Speaker 1: the or with Nick Vusevic in your lineup, you cannot
Speaker 1: allow dribble penetration. If you do, they will score in
Speaker 1: the paint consistently. You have to be a team that
Speaker 1: embraces dribble contain. Getting Alonzo back will help that, but
Speaker 1: Zach Levine and Demarta Rosen have to embrace that to
Speaker 1: a certain extent so quickly instammation. If I had to
Speaker 1: rip off their strengths and weaknesses, their strengths are they
Speaker 1: have a lot of guys who can dribble, pass and shoot,
Speaker 1: so they could be a great drive and kicked team.
Speaker 1: They have an excellent defensive backcourt. There are a good
Speaker 1: defensive rebounding team by percentage, and that should get even
Speaker 1: better with a Lonzo Ball and Andre Drummond when they
Speaker 1: come back. Their weaknesses their stars don't play any defense.
Speaker 1: They hunt inefficient shots. They shoot way too many midrange
Speaker 1: jump shots for being a team that's not great at
Speaker 1: shooting midrange jump shots. And their best lineup so when
Speaker 1: they play Alex Caruso at the point, guard Vussovich at
Speaker 1: the center, and Demarta Rosen, all three of those guys
Speaker 1: are if he shooters. For one reason or another, Caruso's
Speaker 1: percentages can be inconsistent. He's streaky. Vossovich is a willing shooter,
Speaker 1: he's guarded like a shooter, but he shot a really
Speaker 1: low percentage last year only from three. And then Demarta
Speaker 1: Rosen just doesn't like to take them. So somebody in
Speaker 1: that group, whether it's Alex Crusoe and Vossovic, I think
Speaker 1: that's the most realistic outcome. If Caruso and Vussovitch can
Speaker 1: just shoot better from three, that will go a long
Speaker 1: way towards helping them. Alright, best case scenario, so if Demarta,
Speaker 1: Rosen and zach Lavine make slight alterations to their shot profile,
Speaker 1: hunts more off the dribble threes rather than off the dribble,
Speaker 1: mid range jump shots um and embrace driving and kicking
Speaker 1: rather than driving and pulling up in the mid range,
Speaker 1: so that they can start their driving kick attack with
Speaker 1: all of their skilled perimeter players that they have. That
Speaker 1: should go a long way towards helping them on the
Speaker 1: offensive end of the floor. They need Alonzo Ball and
Speaker 1: Pat Williams to stay healthy. Pat Williams had an injury
Speaker 1: last year. Alonzo Ball has consistently been hurt. I hope
Speaker 1: that's not a consistent thing with him. Uh. Alex Crusoe,
Speaker 1: Nicola Vuseovich had better shooting seasons. Alex Crusoe was thirty
Speaker 1: three percent from three last year. Russovich was they need
Speaker 1: to push a lot more in transition. That will actually
Speaker 1: play towards the strengths of their roster composition. They need
Speaker 1: to become a team that embraces containing the dribble drive
Speaker 1: so that they're less reliant on help with Nick Vussovitch
Speaker 1: on the back line. They need Pat Williams to take
Speaker 1: a leap, particularly on the offensive end of the floor.
Speaker 1: I was watching a lot of footage of him this summer.
Speaker 1: He's got a lot of fluidity. Um he could be
Speaker 1: a scoring wing if he continues to work at it.
Speaker 1: Him taking a leap would go a long way towards
Speaker 1: moving them from a non contender to uh if things
Speaker 1: go right, type of contender. The other thing with Pat
Speaker 1: Williams that will be interesting is by virtue of the
Speaker 1: roster construction. With de Maarda Rosen and Zach Levin on
Speaker 1: the roster, he'll catch a lot of favorable matchups. He's
Speaker 1: gonna get your third best perimeter defender on most nights,
Speaker 1: so if he could figure out some more stuff on
Speaker 1: the offensive end of the floor to be a really
Speaker 1: really interesting match up there and Dree Rummond gives them
Speaker 1: more ability to hang with the massive front lines around
Speaker 1: the league, particularly a Janice team or an MBID team,
Speaker 1: or if they ever ran into uh another big, huge
Speaker 1: front line that can expose their lack of size. But
Speaker 1: even with all of that, even if all of that
Speaker 1: breaks right, in my opinion that they're absolute ceiling is
Speaker 1: a team that, if they stayed healthy, would hang around
Speaker 1: that five or six seed and upset one of the
Speaker 1: better East teams in the first round. But let's let's say,
Speaker 1: for instance, they get the five seed and the Sixers,
Speaker 1: you know, James Harden doesn't take the leap that I
Speaker 1: expect them to, and they fall back to the four seed.
Speaker 1: And I could see the Bulls having a really good
Speaker 1: season where they upset somebody like that, but then they
Speaker 1: would just lose to the Celtics or the Bucks or
Speaker 1: whoever the one seed was. So like, at the end
Speaker 1: of the day, they're absolute ceiling. Is a team that
Speaker 1: wins one playoff series. Their worst case scenario is that
Speaker 1: their shop profile stays the same. They continue to hunt
Speaker 1: mid range shots, and they have an age offense and
Speaker 1: a defense that's nowhere near good enough to cover for it.
Speaker 1: Guys get hurt again, Alex Crusoe, uh Alonzo Ball, Pat Williams.
Speaker 1: Injury issues creep up again, maybe Andre Drummond fixes their
Speaker 1: interior size issues but disrupts their offensive flow. We talked
Speaker 1: earlier about how much their offense depends on Vossovitch's shooting
Speaker 1: threat as a screener to open things up for Levine
Speaker 1: and de Rosen. That goes away with Andre Drummond. He's
Speaker 1: a little bit more of a lob threat, but he
Speaker 1: has bad hands, he doesn't catch the ball well, and
Speaker 1: he's one of the worst rim finishing bigs that we
Speaker 1: have in the league. So I think that he could
Speaker 1: cause some problems on the offensive end of the floor.
Speaker 1: Um And then all of a sudden, you have another
Speaker 1: team that wins forty five games and loses in the
Speaker 1: first round ugly, and has no realistic pathway towards improving
Speaker 1: the roster. That's the That's the worst case scenario for
Speaker 1: this team. If you had to ask me which is
Speaker 1: more likely, I lean closer to the worst case scenario.
Speaker 1: And that's a big part of why they're down at fifteen.
Speaker 1: The biggest X factor for this team, the biggest swing factor,
Speaker 1: the thing that will lead to the largest UH differential
Speaker 1: between one outcome to the next is Lonzo Ball. When
Speaker 1: he's healthy, He's an immensely valuable role player. He's an
Speaker 1: excellent three point shooter in every single way, off the catch,
Speaker 1: coming off of screens, you know, in spot up situations,
Speaker 1: on the move, in transition. He's just a great three
Speaker 1: point shooter, which is really impressive if you think about
Speaker 1: what he looked like as a shooter coming into the league.
Speaker 1: He's also one of the better point of attack defenders
Speaker 1: in the league. He's disruptive. He's in one of those
Speaker 1: aggressive forward facing defenders that tries to disrupt your handle
Speaker 1: and make you feel uncomfortable. He also plays passing lanes
Speaker 1: really well and forces a lot of turnovers on the
Speaker 1: offensive end of the floor. Beyond shooting, he's a good
Speaker 1: playmaker in space, so he's great at starting fast breaks
Speaker 1: with outlet passes. When he's attacking close outs, he makes
Speaker 1: reads really really well. He's just not the guy who
Speaker 1: can create against the set defense. But all of that
Speaker 1: amounts to a really good role player who's struggled to
Speaker 1: stay healthy over the years. He even takes longer to
Speaker 1: recover and abnormally long time to recover from injuries that
Speaker 1: he should come back from faster. It's like, oh, he
Speaker 1: sprained his ankle, with the Lakers. He should be back
Speaker 1: in a month. No, no, no, he's gone two months.
Speaker 1: You know, here's this knee injury. We expect him back
Speaker 1: in six months. Oh here comes you know, or to
Speaker 1: two months or whatever it is. And then the report
Speaker 1: comes out like, oh, well, you know, things are healing
Speaker 1: slower than expected and we're going to reevaluate him in
Speaker 1: two months. Like that kind of thing comes out a lot,
Speaker 1: which scares me in terms of whether or not this
Speaker 1: could be a degenerative health issue. Just it is what
Speaker 1: it is. I don't know what the deal is. Some
Speaker 1: people just struggle more with this than others. I don't
Speaker 1: know the physiology behind it. Alonzo might just be one
Speaker 1: of those guys. Um And so as a result, there's
Speaker 1: a huge variation between what he might bring to the
Speaker 1: Bulls this year and what might happen if things go wrong.
Speaker 1: And that makes him a huge X factor because, like
Speaker 1: we talked about earlier, a hundred and two defensive rating
Speaker 1: with him on the floor, with Alonzo and just taking
Speaker 1: him out of the picture bumps that defensive rating up
Speaker 1: to up to one. So having him on the floor
Speaker 1: to help them be a better fast break team, to
Speaker 1: have them be a better defensive team would go a
Speaker 1: long way towards helping the Bulls reach their actual ceiling.
Speaker 1: All right, that's all I have for the Bulls. We'll
Speaker 1: be back tomorrow with number fourteen. As always, I sincerely
Speaker 1: appreciate your guys a support, and I'll see you tomorrow.
Speaker 1: The volume