1
00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:08,960
Speaker 1: Hello, everybody, Welcome into the cycle. I am Ryan Warmley,

2
00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:11,840
Speaker 1: joined as always by Mike Mayor. We are fresh off

3
00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:15,760
Speaker 1: Fantasy Fest twenty twenty five MLB edition, so be sure

4
00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:18,480
Speaker 1: to check out the Fantasy Pros MLB page on YouTube

5
00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,120
Speaker 1: and go check that out. If you missed it live.

6
00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:24,480
Speaker 1: We did four hours yesterday. Joey p and the Welch

7
00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:26,560
Speaker 1: started off. They did most of it. Mayor and I

8
00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:28,400
Speaker 1: hopped on for the final hour, had a couple of

9
00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:32,280
Speaker 1: good segments talking with Eric Cross, George Bissel, Scott Pianowski.

10
00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:34,320
Speaker 1: It was a great time. I know everybody hit a

11
00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:36,160
Speaker 1: great time, so shouts out again. I kind of thanked

12
00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:38,640
Speaker 1: everybody yesterday at the end of that stream, but shots

13
00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:41,839
Speaker 1: to everybody who had any involvement in that. It was awesome. So,

14
00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:44,000
Speaker 1: like I said, if you missed it, definitely go to

15
00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:45,920
Speaker 1: our YouTube page and check it out. We've got some

16
00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:48,680
Speaker 1: best of segments on there. We're gonna cut up a

17
00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:50,360
Speaker 1: lot of the individual segments, or you could watch the

18
00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:52,839
Speaker 1: whole stream front to back if you'd really like. It

19
00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:56,520
Speaker 1: was a fun time as always. Are you tired after that,

20
00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:59,120
Speaker 1: Mayor are you feeling excited to talk a little more baseball?

21
00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:01,440
Speaker 1: With me after we just an hour yesterday. How are

22
00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:01,840
Speaker 1: you feeling.

23
00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:04,759
Speaker 2: I'm a little tired, not necessarily because of Fantasy Fest,

24
00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:06,880
Speaker 2: but from you know, I was up late preparing for

25
00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:09,520
Speaker 2: this show, making sure we were as prepared as possible.

26
00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:11,800
Speaker 2: So don't have a ton of sleep in me the

27
00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:14,920
Speaker 2: last forty eight hours, but still excited and ready to go.

28
00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:17,479
Speaker 1: I would like to get everybody's opinion in the comments

29
00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:21,319
Speaker 1: on Mayor's outfit here. We decided to wear our Fantasy

30
00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:24,040
Speaker 1: Pros baseball jerseys because we meant to wear them for

31
00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:25,560
Speaker 1: the fest and forgot, so we're like, oh, we'll wear

32
00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:27,160
Speaker 1: them for the cycle. So if you're watching on YouTube,

33
00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:28,960
Speaker 1: you could check that out. We got these at a

34
00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,160
Speaker 1: team trip a couple of years ago. They were kind

35
00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:33,559
Speaker 1: of regionally done. That's why mine is a different color

36
00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:35,560
Speaker 1: than his. I think they're awesome. They're super comfortable and

37
00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:37,880
Speaker 1: look good. Mayor's is blue and white, and for some

38
00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:40,640
Speaker 1: reason decided to wear a red undershirt. He says it's

39
00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,199
Speaker 1: to look like the Blue Jays. I think it looks terrible.

40
00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:44,920
Speaker 1: I would love to get everybody else's opinion.

41
00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:47,080
Speaker 2: I would too, and I would also say I intention

42
00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:49,440
Speaker 2: this wasn't like an accidental red. I intentionally. I was

43
00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,040
Speaker 2: wearing a navy blue shirt and I intentionally went and

44
00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:53,440
Speaker 2: put a red one on because I was like, you know,

45
00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:57,120
Speaker 2: what's gonna look really good red underneath this blue jersey.

46
00:01:57,240 --> 00:01:59,200
Speaker 2: And I will say, despite the fact that I'm a

47
00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,360
Speaker 2: Red Sox fan, I actually kind of grew up when

48
00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:04,600
Speaker 2: I was really young as more of an anti Yankees fan.

49
00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:06,240
Speaker 2: I grew up in New Jersey. It was just like

50
00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:09,240
Speaker 2: a Yankees hater. And when I was really little, I

51
00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:11,680
Speaker 2: was actually a Blue Jays fan and a Red Sox fan,

52
00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:14,760
Speaker 2: which is kind of blasphemous to, you know, say out

53
00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:16,520
Speaker 2: loud and like admit that to people. But I was

54
00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:18,920
Speaker 2: just like a kid who only had the Yankees on

55
00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:21,480
Speaker 2: TV locally, and so every night I would just root

56
00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:23,320
Speaker 2: against the Yankees. So I just cheered for whoever they

57
00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:25,079
Speaker 2: were playing, So that meant cheering for a lot of

58
00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:26,760
Speaker 2: the Orioles, cheering for a lot of the Blue Jays

59
00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:28,960
Speaker 2: and the Red Sox because they played so often. And

60
00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:30,639
Speaker 2: then I was kind of trying to decide do I

61
00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:31,880
Speaker 2: want to be a Red Sox fan or a Blue

62
00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:33,639
Speaker 2: Jays fan, And for a while I was leaning Blue Jays,

63
00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,320
Speaker 2: and I really liked when they wore the red shirt

64
00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:38,680
Speaker 2: under the blue jersey. And it wasn't until I went

65
00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:40,120
Speaker 2: to Fenway because I have family there. Then I was like,

66
00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:41,760
Speaker 2: all right, I'm walking in on the red sox. But

67
00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:44,800
Speaker 2: that's where the red shirt history comes from. Fully approve

68
00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:46,880
Speaker 2: of the red shirt and the comments I know will

69
00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:47,680
Speaker 2: justify me.

70
00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:51,880
Speaker 1: They looks terrible. I managed to find I managed to

71
00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:54,840
Speaker 1: find a yellow undershirt that actually matches the yellow on

72
00:02:55,919 --> 00:03:01,760
Speaker 1: it's it's like yellow. I think it's pretty darn close.

73
00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:04,440
Speaker 1: Maybe I'm colorblind, but I think it looks pretty good.

74
00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:08,880
Speaker 1: That's enough jersey talk for this episode. I know. Before

75
00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:10,639
Speaker 1: we jump into today's episode, which is going to be

76
00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:13,639
Speaker 1: about some bold predictions, we're calling it our bold predictions

77
00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:15,360
Speaker 1: that you can't hold us to. We are trying to

78
00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:17,200
Speaker 1: be bold so if we get it wrong, you're not

79
00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:18,839
Speaker 1: allowed to make fun of us later in the year.

80
00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:21,080
Speaker 1: We are we're I mean, there are predictions, but they're

81
00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:23,400
Speaker 1: intentionally pretty bold, at least minor. I haven't actually been

82
00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:24,799
Speaker 1: really looked at what mayors are, so I can't wait

83
00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:28,359
Speaker 1: to be surprised by how tame they are. I know

84
00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:31,080
Speaker 1: you before we jump into the episode, wanted to talk

85
00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:34,440
Speaker 1: about last week's episode and some of the comments that

86
00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:36,720
Speaker 1: we were getting and maybe some of the comments that

87
00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:40,960
Speaker 1: were struggling a little with the definition of some certain words.

88
00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:44,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, so first off, we like fully we'll own the

89
00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:47,360
Speaker 2: l here that, like our all regression team was a

90
00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:51,000
Speaker 2: little confusing because we chose like the exact definition of

91
00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,480
Speaker 2: aggression in that you can regress up or down. A

92
00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:55,040
Speaker 2: lot of people in the comments last.

93
00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:57,080
Speaker 1: Week, it's not up or down, it's to the mean,

94
00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:00,520
Speaker 1: so it can go. You could think of it spatially

95
00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:03,280
Speaker 1: is other direction, but it's it's just to the mean.

96
00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:04,880
Speaker 1: That's all regression means.

97
00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:07,320
Speaker 2: Right up or down to the mean. If you're below

98
00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:09,280
Speaker 2: the mean or above the mean, you can regress in

99
00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:09,880
Speaker 2: either direction.

100
00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:13,080
Speaker 1: But like you're thinking about it just as like a

101
00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:15,200
Speaker 1: physical space. This is going to confuse people. Actually, so

102
00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:15,720
Speaker 1: I get.

103
00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:19,080
Speaker 2: Out to get out your blackboard and started to continue. Well,

104
00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:20,400
Speaker 2: the one thing I wanted to mention is that there

105
00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:22,080
Speaker 2: were a lot of people, a lot of people thought

106
00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:23,919
Speaker 2: that regression is only a bad thing, which is not

107
00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:26,040
Speaker 2: like you said, it's regression to the mean in either direction.

108
00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:28,160
Speaker 2: And so there are a lot of people in the

109
00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:30,360
Speaker 2: comments really confused by that they were confused by our

110
00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:32,360
Speaker 2: team because we had, you know, different kinds of regression,

111
00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:35,640
Speaker 2: and then a few other people saying that positive regression

112
00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:38,159
Speaker 2: is actually progression, which is not progression means you're actively

113
00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:41,320
Speaker 2: getting better. Regression just means regressing to the mean. So

114
00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:43,680
Speaker 2: I wanted to go on there do a mini rant

115
00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:46,400
Speaker 2: about that. There were a lot of people justifying the

116
00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:48,680
Speaker 2: use of positive regression in the comments, So I'm just

117
00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:51,040
Speaker 2: gonna roll with that and continue to use that phrase,

118
00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:52,840
Speaker 2: and a lot of people, you know.

119
00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:54,799
Speaker 1: And you wonder why people were confused.

120
00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:56,720
Speaker 2: Explaining Well, a lot of people were like, you know what,

121
00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:58,840
Speaker 2: it's just super easy to say positive negative regression. Just

122
00:04:58,920 --> 00:04:59,960
Speaker 2: keep saying that. And I was like, you know what, here,

123
00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,440
Speaker 2: all right, let's just do that. But progression different thing,

124
00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:03,240
Speaker 2: not the same thing.

125
00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:05,159
Speaker 1: Let's go I mean, the best way I think about

126
00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:08,920
Speaker 1: it is, if your bata ball profile suggests that you're

127
00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:12,680
Speaker 1: expected batting averages three hundred and two guys both have

128
00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:16,360
Speaker 1: the same exact BATA ball profile, one of them bat's

129
00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:19,360
Speaker 1: three twenty, one of them bat's two eighty. The next

130
00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:22,200
Speaker 1: year they both bat three hundred. Again that both those

131
00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:26,520
Speaker 1: scenarios are regression. They are regressing to the expected outcome

132
00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:30,080
Speaker 1: that it was a statistical outlier that they weren't there.

133
00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:32,560
Speaker 1: It could go either direction. I don't even know if

134
00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:34,520
Speaker 1: it's a grammar. That's just like a definition of the word.

135
00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:38,440
Speaker 2: Sure, bold prediction. Not the last time I say positive regression.

136
00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,320
Speaker 1: Bold predictions. Who we're jumping into here, Like I said,

137
00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:43,400
Speaker 1: bold predictions, you can't hold us too. We're gonna do

138
00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:46,440
Speaker 1: three each and then we are going to look at

139
00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:48,560
Speaker 1: some of the ones that some of the listeners throughout

140
00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:51,120
Speaker 1: there in discord and in the comment section. So we

141
00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:53,360
Speaker 1: appreciate everybody kind of chipping in with some of their

142
00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:55,159
Speaker 1: own ideas, and we'll let you know what we think

143
00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:57,280
Speaker 1: of those. I do want to let everybody know that

144
00:05:57,320 --> 00:06:00,640
Speaker 1: we are now giving away a John Smoltz sign Braves

145
00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:04,120
Speaker 1: jersey courtesy of our friends at Pristineauction dot com. All

146
00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:06,320
Speaker 1: you have to do to enter is subscribe to the

147
00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:10,000
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros MLB YouTube channel right now, drop a comment

148
00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:12,200
Speaker 1: below on any video, and that's it. We will be

149
00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:15,200
Speaker 1: announcing one lucky winner right here on the channel, So

150
00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:17,480
Speaker 1: make sure to turn on those notifications so you can

151
00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:21,920
Speaker 1: know when new videos are up and claim your prize. Okay,

152
00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:23,480
Speaker 1: do you want to go first or second? Here?

153
00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:25,760
Speaker 2: I'll go Second's let's start off for the years.

154
00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:28,200
Speaker 1: I'll go first. It actually is kind of fitting the

155
00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:31,120
Speaker 1: jersey I'm wearing, because while I'm not necessarily a Brewers fan,

156
00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:33,840
Speaker 1: it's kind of Brewers colored. And my first prediction is

157
00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:37,120
Speaker 1: about Jackson Curio. And by the way, I'm kind of

158
00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:41,200
Speaker 1: intentionally going three two one, Like the last bold prediction

159
00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:43,600
Speaker 1: I have in my mind is kind of the boldest.

160
00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:45,440
Speaker 1: Maybe you will disagree with the order I have that,

161
00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:47,680
Speaker 1: but that's kind of what I'm going for here. So

162
00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:49,880
Speaker 1: my first bold prediction is on Jackson Curio. This is

163
00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:51,880
Speaker 1: already a guy who was going like in the second

164
00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:54,720
Speaker 1: round of drafts. I think he's ECRs like nineteenth or

165
00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:57,200
Speaker 1: something like that. So it's not like I'm going on

166
00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:58,919
Speaker 1: on a limb saying he's going to be good. I

167
00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:00,560
Speaker 1: think he's going to be a lot more more than good.

168
00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,040
Speaker 1: I'm saying he has a thirty thirty season this year

169
00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:06,800
Speaker 1: with a three hundred batting average and is a consensus

170
00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:12,520
Speaker 1: top three pick in twenty twenty six redraft leagues. Obviously,

171
00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:15,920
Speaker 1: he's somebody who was a very highly touted prospect. He's

172
00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:18,160
Speaker 1: the type of power speed prospect that you would think

173
00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:22,040
Speaker 1: would be really intriguing for fantasy. I have him in

174
00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:24,600
Speaker 1: you know, some Dynasty deep keeper formats where I'm really

175
00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:27,600
Speaker 1: excited about. Started off really slow last year, which he

176
00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:29,640
Speaker 1: actually had done in the minors the year before as well,

177
00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:32,360
Speaker 1: so not too unheard of, you know, April and May

178
00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:35,920
Speaker 1: really poor. He's really young, obviously adjusting to the league

179
00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:38,320
Speaker 1: for the first time. It's the kind of slow start

180
00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:40,920
Speaker 1: that you can pretty comfortably toss out. By the way,

181
00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:43,320
Speaker 1: he was twenty years old all last season. His birthday

182
00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:45,080
Speaker 1: was actually two days ago from the day were recording.

183
00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:49,080
Speaker 1: He just turned twenty one now, so super super young.

184
00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:52,040
Speaker 1: And he still ended up with a twenty twenty season

185
00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:54,680
Speaker 1: a batting average of two seventy five on the strength

186
00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:56,880
Speaker 1: of how well he finished the year. From June second

187
00:07:57,040 --> 00:08:01,600
Speaker 1: on he played ninety seven games, so in that two

188
00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:04,280
Speaker 1: thirds ish range of the season a little under than that,

189
00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:08,040
Speaker 1: and he had sixteen home runs, fifteen stolen bases, and

190
00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:10,680
Speaker 1: a three zero five batting averages ops was just a

191
00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:13,600
Speaker 1: little under nine hundred. From June second on there was

192
00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:17,440
Speaker 1: almost four hundred played appearances in that time frame. This

193
00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:19,600
Speaker 1: is somebody who we saw take a step forward in

194
00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:22,440
Speaker 1: the second half of the year, who I think will

195
00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:25,720
Speaker 1: take he will progress, talk about progression to an even

196
00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:29,640
Speaker 1: higher level in his second full season. I would anticipate,

197
00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:31,480
Speaker 1: and we know this is a team that's going to

198
00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:33,040
Speaker 1: allow you to run. I think the Brewers finished with

199
00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:35,720
Speaker 1: the second most stolen bases last season, so I think

200
00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:38,520
Speaker 1: thirty stolen bases assuming he bats three hundred. His OVP

201
00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:41,040
Speaker 1: was three to sixty in that stretch last year from

202
00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:45,040
Speaker 1: June on. If he matches that this year, he's easily

203
00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:48,000
Speaker 1: getting thirty stale bases. I would anticipate, and I think

204
00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:49,960
Speaker 1: he takes enough of a step forward into power as

205
00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:52,800
Speaker 1: well to hit to that thirty mark. So I'm all

206
00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:56,320
Speaker 1: in on Surio this year. He's right now my favorite

207
00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:58,680
Speaker 1: pick you can make in that middle of the second

208
00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:01,760
Speaker 1: round range, and I think a year from now we're

209
00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:03,679
Speaker 1: talking about him. I'm not saying he's gonna be the

210
00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:05,560
Speaker 1: number one pick next year because I still, you know,

211
00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:08,480
Speaker 1: expect big things out of Bobby Witt and maybe maybe

212
00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:10,559
Speaker 1: Judge hits another sixty home run. You know, there's other

213
00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:12,440
Speaker 1: really good players, but I think he's in that top

214
00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,319
Speaker 1: three clear tier one type of player as a guy

215
00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:16,800
Speaker 1: coming off his age twenty one season.

216
00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, for like my own purposes, I kind of hope

217
00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:23,079
Speaker 2: this doesn't come to fruition because not that I've been

218
00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:25,520
Speaker 2: like hating on Jackson Trio in the last couple episodes,

219
00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:27,520
Speaker 2: but if you if you go back and watch Fantasy Fest,

220
00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:30,920
Speaker 2: one of you know, my rookies I wanted to target

221
00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:34,520
Speaker 2: it was Jason Domingez, with the idea being that Jackson

222
00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:36,800
Speaker 2: Tiro could maybe you know, we're getting very excited about him.

223
00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:39,080
Speaker 2: We're seeing a lot of Jackson TiO steam and the

224
00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:43,040
Speaker 2: ADP I mentioned also that like in an NFBC main event,

225
00:09:43,040 --> 00:09:44,839
Speaker 2: we saw Jackson Tiro go in the first round. I

226
00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:46,400
Speaker 2: think he was like the eighth or ninth overall pick,

227
00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:48,319
Speaker 2: which is like, you know, you got to be really

228
00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,000
Speaker 2: in that person must be predicting the same thing you're

229
00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:54,760
Speaker 2: predicting to take him that early. But I was saying, like,

230
00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:58,160
Speaker 2: what if he underperforms based on his projections, which are

231
00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:01,600
Speaker 2: you know, consensus projections, which we talked about before. They're

232
00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,240
Speaker 2: often conservative, but like between like twenty and twenty at

233
00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:07,320
Speaker 2: home runs and like twenty four twenty seven stolen bases,

234
00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:10,240
Speaker 2: batting average much lower to not like low, but like

235
00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:13,320
Speaker 2: lower than what you're protecting or predicting, like two sixty eight,

236
00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:15,199
Speaker 2: two seventy And I was saying, like, and if he

237
00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:18,959
Speaker 2: kind of underperforms that Jason Dominguez overperformed, so you could

238
00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:23,240
Speaker 2: potentially get a really good similar profile, you know, several

239
00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:25,640
Speaker 2: rounds later. So it would not be a great look

240
00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:28,920
Speaker 2: for me and my preseason predictions if this comes to fruition.

241
00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:32,559
Speaker 2: But I mean, this is the hope, right, like everyone,

242
00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:35,640
Speaker 2: he's really young hitter. We've seen the flashes. This is

243
00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:37,520
Speaker 2: the next step. So last year in one hundred and

244
00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:40,680
Speaker 2: forty eight games, twenty one and twenty two, not really

245
00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:43,160
Speaker 2: that crazy of a jump to go thirty thirty, although

246
00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:45,920
Speaker 2: you throw the three hundred bating average because he batted

247
00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:48,160
Speaker 2: you know, a respectable two seventy five and it looks

248
00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:50,240
Speaker 2: like it earned two seventy five too. It's expected batting

249
00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:53,439
Speaker 2: average to seventy four. And as you said, twenty years

250
00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:55,680
Speaker 2: old last year, Like, that's a twenty year old doing that, And.

251
00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:58,520
Speaker 1: Again that's dragged down by the first two months. Also,

252
00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:01,520
Speaker 1: his batting average was over three hundred from June on,

253
00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:03,000
Speaker 1: which is two thirds of the year.

254
00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:04,640
Speaker 2: I did not know that until you said that, and

255
00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:06,240
Speaker 2: I looked it up while you were talking. He beat

256
00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:08,280
Speaker 2: it three ten in the second half that I did

257
00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:09,240
Speaker 2: not know he hit that high.

258
00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:12,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, he I mean, the reason this is my third

259
00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:15,600
Speaker 1: most bold prediction is that I don't think it's that

260
00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:17,400
Speaker 1: much of a jump. I think I think the idea

261
00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:19,520
Speaker 1: of him being a consensus top three pick next year

262
00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:21,960
Speaker 1: is what makes this bold because it's not really that

263
00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:24,040
Speaker 1: much of a leap. The pace he was on from

264
00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:28,120
Speaker 1: June on last year was something like twenty seven twenty

265
00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:31,400
Speaker 1: eight home runs and twenty seven or twenty eight stolen bases,

266
00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:33,760
Speaker 1: again with a batting average over three hundred, with an

267
00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:36,559
Speaker 1: ops just under nine hundred like he was doing it

268
00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:40,720
Speaker 1: last year. Essentially, it would not take a big step

269
00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:42,440
Speaker 1: forward to get to that thirty thirty mark.

270
00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:44,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, And that's the thing, people, He's already going in

271
00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:46,400
Speaker 2: the second round and you know, in some sharp league

272
00:11:46,520 --> 00:11:49,080
Speaker 2: first round, So in that sense, people are already kind

273
00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:50,320
Speaker 2: of baking in this jump.

274
00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:52,400
Speaker 1: Where is he ranked for you? I know you talked

275
00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,439
Speaker 1: about the idea of him maybe falling short of projections

276
00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:57,719
Speaker 1: a bit that we'd discuss on the fest. But when

277
00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:00,600
Speaker 1: push comes to shove. At what point are you drafting him?

278
00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:03,319
Speaker 1: Is it or is it late second? Is it mid second?

279
00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:03,679
Speaker 2: Is it?

280
00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:06,199
Speaker 1: Is it into the third if you're actually low on him?

281
00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:08,440
Speaker 2: And that's why I want to be careful of because

282
00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:10,079
Speaker 2: I'm not actually low on him, like I do like it.

283
00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:14,680
Speaker 2: I do get concerned drafting him like a little too high,

284
00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:16,600
Speaker 2: Like I'm not going to do first round this year

285
00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:19,320
Speaker 2: just because you know, you're kind of like hoping that

286
00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:21,400
Speaker 2: for that jump. I haven't met nineteen overall right now,

287
00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:23,920
Speaker 2: so kind of the mid to late second round.

288
00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:27,679
Speaker 1: And ultimately, like I'll just put a boone it by

289
00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:29,360
Speaker 1: saying this, like, I think last year was kind of

290
00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:32,960
Speaker 1: the floor, right like because again so young, first year

291
00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:36,000
Speaker 1: in the big leagues and was dragged down by you know,

292
00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:38,479
Speaker 1: a third of the season was really really you know, struggling,

293
00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:40,800
Speaker 1: and he still went twenty twenty with a two seventy

294
00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:43,160
Speaker 1: five average. Like as a twenty twenty year old, I

295
00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:45,520
Speaker 1: just the floor is there, and I think the ceiling,

296
00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:47,679
Speaker 1: obviously I'm not going on a limb by saying is

297
00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:50,960
Speaker 1: also there. So I'm super super all in on Surio

298
00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:54,120
Speaker 1: this year. That's my first Bowl prediction. What is your

299
00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:56,760
Speaker 1: first ball prediction. Also, did you go kind of three

300
00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:58,599
Speaker 1: two one will put this together? Or is yours? Not

301
00:12:58,679 --> 00:12:59,440
Speaker 1: really in any order?

302
00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,040
Speaker 2: Not necessarily, I tried to because you got to the

303
00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:04,560
Speaker 2: sheet first and put him in, you know, not to

304
00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:06,400
Speaker 2: give everyone a behind the scenes look of like how

305
00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:09,560
Speaker 2: this went. But you you gave your bold predictions first,

306
00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:12,360
Speaker 2: So I tried to kind of pair mine in a

307
00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:14,720
Speaker 2: similar way to yours, like you know, based on like

308
00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:17,760
Speaker 2: the themes, except for the last one, which is very different.

309
00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:19,240
Speaker 2: But the first two I just tried to, Like I

310
00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:24,000
Speaker 2: had some other bold predictions. I feel like my second

311
00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:27,240
Speaker 2: one is probably the baldest one, so this one is

312
00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:29,319
Speaker 2: not my boldest one, depending on how you look at it.

313
00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:32,200
Speaker 2: But I have Elie Day, like Cruiz produces one hundred

314
00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:35,560
Speaker 2: combined home runs on stolen bases, and so he went

315
00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:38,160
Speaker 2: twenty five m runs sixty seven stolen bases last year,

316
00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:40,000
Speaker 2: so it's not really a huge jump like that. I

317
00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:43,720
Speaker 2: think my quick napkin math is that's ninety two, so

318
00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:47,320
Speaker 2: only eight more. But early projections have him for significantly less.

319
00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:51,000
Speaker 2: They have him with stolen bases in the fifties and

320
00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:53,240
Speaker 2: hitting twenty five home runs, so they have him like

321
00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:57,079
Speaker 2: you know seventy five eighty combined home runs and stolen bases,

322
00:13:57,559 --> 00:13:59,719
Speaker 2: and I think we're you know, he did this last

323
00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:02,600
Speaker 2: year while batting two fifty nine with a strikeout rate

324
00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:05,439
Speaker 2: of thirty one point three percent. So even despite striking

325
00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:08,040
Speaker 2: out almost a third of the time, he still got

326
00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:09,599
Speaker 2: on base a bunch. He struck out two hundred and

327
00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:11,880
Speaker 2: eighteen times and still managed to hit twenty five home

328
00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:14,800
Speaker 2: runs and steal sixty seven bases. I think we can

329
00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:18,080
Speaker 2: see him jump up to thirty thirty five home runs

330
00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:20,920
Speaker 2: and steal another seventy bases and get over one hundred.

331
00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:26,440
Speaker 1: If you asked me to pick the one player not

332
00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:30,720
Speaker 1: named Bobby wit Junior, Shoheotani or Aaron Judge who was

333
00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:33,800
Speaker 1: going to be the number one pick in next year's draft,

334
00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:38,080
Speaker 1: I might give some credence to the history of Akunya

335
00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:40,480
Speaker 1: and say him, But my second choice might be Ellie,

336
00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:44,400
Speaker 1: Like I think the same pure ceiling of what he

337
00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:47,200
Speaker 1: could do. What you're describing here is just different than

338
00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:49,120
Speaker 1: everybody else, Like a guy like Churia, who I just

339
00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:51,920
Speaker 1: spoke up included, Like it's a different level with if

340
00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:54,520
Speaker 1: he puts it together, and obviously guy's still really young.

341
00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,920
Speaker 1: The impact he can make in fantasy with that kind

342
00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:00,880
Speaker 1: of stolen base number to go with the power is

343
00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:03,400
Speaker 1: like remarkable, And we have a note on the site

344
00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:07,040
Speaker 1: on his page, I think from Kelly that he hit

345
00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:09,440
Speaker 1: more home runs on the road last season, so like

346
00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:13,360
Speaker 1: he's not even fully taking advantage of his awesome home

347
00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:16,920
Speaker 1: ballpark in Cincinnati yet for power. So if he starts

348
00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:20,320
Speaker 1: taking advantage of that even more, then I mean, sky's

349
00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:20,720
Speaker 1: the limit.

350
00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:23,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny you say that too talking about next year,

351
00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:26,520
Speaker 2: because I've kind of been just like toying with the

352
00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:29,440
Speaker 2: idea of looking at the rankings and like you know,

353
00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:32,800
Speaker 2: looking at like the top five and ADP and looking

354
00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:34,560
Speaker 2: at you know, you see like Otani, Bobby wood J

355
00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:36,440
Speaker 2: and your Aaron Judge and then Ellie de la Cruz,

356
00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:40,200
Speaker 2: and I've kind of had like passing thoughts of thinking,

357
00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:43,840
Speaker 2: are we sure Ellie da la Cruz might not finish

358
00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:46,520
Speaker 2: as like the most valuable player in Fantasy baseball this year?

359
00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:50,480
Speaker 2: Because like he's already top five and there are enough

360
00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:52,800
Speaker 2: concerns about the players above him, and I think he

361
00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:55,640
Speaker 2: has a high enough floor because, like I said, last year,

362
00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:58,760
Speaker 2: he struck out over thirty one percent of the time,

363
00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:01,600
Speaker 2: and I think, think, like what if that improves just

364
00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:04,840
Speaker 2: a little bit and those numbers get even better? Like

365
00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:07,400
Speaker 2: I feel like there's a really high floor there, and

366
00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:10,600
Speaker 2: you could you could make the argument I haven't been

367
00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:12,160
Speaker 2: bold enough to do it. You could make the argument

368
00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:14,040
Speaker 2: that he could be the one on one pick this year.

369
00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:17,400
Speaker 1: That might be a bridge. I think you could make

370
00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,000
Speaker 1: the argument we talked about Otani on the Fest two

371
00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,840
Speaker 1: for if you were to knock Atani down just because

372
00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:26,360
Speaker 1: he's pitching again, like are they gonna let him run

373
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,840
Speaker 1: as much like the Dodgers don't need him to play

374
00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,280
Speaker 1: every day to make the playoffs? Like, I know you

375
00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:32,240
Speaker 1: can make that argument for not.

376
00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:33,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you want to be scared about Shoe Tani,

377
00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:35,560
Speaker 2: go back to the Fantasy Fest and listen to Scott

378
00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:37,920
Speaker 2: pian ASKI talked about him. He don't come y nervous.

379
00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:41,120
Speaker 1: Yes, he makes a great case. I'm not knocking Otani down,

380
00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:43,240
Speaker 1: but like I could see the case for that. I

381
00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:45,480
Speaker 1: could maybe even see the case for Judge. Like, again,

382
00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:47,800
Speaker 1: I wouldn't do that. I would pretty clearly have Judge

383
00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:49,760
Speaker 1: ahead of Ellie. But if you just want to talk

384
00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,400
Speaker 1: about those steals, I can see the argument for it.

385
00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,960
Speaker 1: Bobby wit Junior, I really struggle, Like, to me, he's

386
00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,240
Speaker 1: like such an easy one, oh one, like I would,

387
00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:00,680
Speaker 1: I would really struggle to put it ahead of him.

388
00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:02,840
Speaker 1: But I think it's interesting to me. The really interesting

389
00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,760
Speaker 1: one is Jose Ramirez versus Ellie da Leila Cruz because

390
00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:09,399
Speaker 1: an ECR. Ramirez is four and Ellie is five, and

391
00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:12,280
Speaker 1: I am very willing to hear that argument for them

392
00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:12,920
Speaker 1: being switched.

393
00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:15,439
Speaker 2: I just really struggle with him because he said, like

394
00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:17,639
Speaker 2: you see the flaws in his game, and he's just

395
00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:19,600
Speaker 2: he's still so young, and you know, you were just

396
00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:23,600
Speaker 2: assuming he gets like even just like incrementally better, he

397
00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:25,280
Speaker 2: could be the most valuable player in Fantasy.

398
00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:27,920
Speaker 1: I think you're spout out. These are obviously. I mean,

399
00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:30,440
Speaker 1: Jackson Cherier is the second round pick, Ellie Hiller crew

400
00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:32,600
Speaker 1: is the top five pick. It's not like we're going

401
00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:34,359
Speaker 1: on a limb in terms of saying these guys are

402
00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:36,080
Speaker 1: going to be really good. But I think the level

403
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,280
Speaker 1: to which they could hit these ceilings, it's like how

404
00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:42,960
Speaker 1: high their ceilings are is is something that could really

405
00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:45,479
Speaker 1: be reflected in next year's drafts and could make them

406
00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:49,240
Speaker 1: league winners. I mean, imagine if your draft in let's see,

407
00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:51,640
Speaker 1: have the fifth pick and imagine your first two picks

408
00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:56,160
Speaker 1: are Ellie and in Cherio. That's that's doable the way

409
00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:57,400
Speaker 1: ADP is right now.

410
00:17:57,560 --> 00:17:59,439
Speaker 2: I know, like spring training stats don't really matter. We

411
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:01,880
Speaker 2: only payctually. Tweeted out this morning that like, spring training

412
00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,399
Speaker 2: stats don't matter unless they're really good, really bad, or

413
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:06,840
Speaker 2: confirm your priors. That's only only three times that spring

414
00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:08,520
Speaker 2: training stats matter. But have you seen what he's doing

415
00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:11,720
Speaker 2: in spring right now? He's batting forty one with three

416
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:13,919
Speaker 2: home runs and five stone bases in eleven games.

417
00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:19,840
Speaker 1: So like, yeah, I I I don't even look at

418
00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:22,840
Speaker 1: spring training stats. The only time I see them is

419
00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:26,639
Speaker 1: if they're so extreme that somebody's tweeting out about them

420
00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:28,360
Speaker 1: and I notice it on there. Like I will never

421
00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:30,200
Speaker 1: go up and look up a spring training stat. I've

422
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:33,560
Speaker 1: just it feels pretty useless to me. Like what I

423
00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:36,120
Speaker 1: what I care about spring training is how healthy guys

424
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:40,640
Speaker 1: are if they're coming off an injury, you know, A yeah, yes,

425
00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:42,919
Speaker 1: philosophy for a picture is a picture working on a

426
00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:44,600
Speaker 1: new pitch. That's what it's. I don't care about the

427
00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:45,760
Speaker 1: stats like really at all.

428
00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:47,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't go out of my way to look

429
00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:48,679
Speaker 2: at him. I see him like you said, like if

430
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:50,560
Speaker 2: people someone's tweeting about him, or when I go to

431
00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:52,240
Speaker 2: his you know, one of his stat pages and it's

432
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:53,560
Speaker 2: like one of the lines at the bottom, I'm like, oh,

433
00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,040
Speaker 2: that's pretty sweet. Forty one.

434
00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:58,960
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, I want to remind everybody about our MLB

435
00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:01,840
Speaker 1: Draft Kit. You can dominate your fantasy baseball draft with

436
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:05,120
Speaker 1: the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. View expert cheat

437
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:08,040
Speaker 1: sheets and rankings to build your perfect team. Access up

438
00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:11,680
Speaker 1: to date projections and expert recommendations on sleepers, bus must

439
00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:15,479
Speaker 1: have players, and more. Premium subscribers gain access to our

440
00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 1: entire discord where they can interact directly with our analysts

441
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:22,719
Speaker 1: through AMAS and other hardcore fantasy baseball fanatics. Bookmark our

442
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:26,440
Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit at fantasypros dot com slash Draftkit

443
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:29,600
Speaker 1: for new fantasy baseball advice every single day throughout the

444
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:35,160
Speaker 1: fantasy baseball draft season. Okay, we're onto bold prediction number two,

445
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:38,200
Speaker 1: where I will go first to them, because you clearly

446
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,280
Speaker 1: just copied my same idea for this one with you here.

447
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:43,679
Speaker 2: When we get to yours, if you threw it to me,

448
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:45,879
Speaker 2: I was going to decline and ask you to please

449
00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:46,280
Speaker 2: go first.

450
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 1: Yes, because I want it clear that I put mine

451
00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:51,119
Speaker 1: in first. I am predicting and again trying to be

452
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:52,840
Speaker 1: a little bit bolder than the last one. That Devin

453
00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:58,440
Speaker 1: Williams receives multiple top three cy Young votes this season,

454
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,399
Speaker 1: obviously playing for the Yankees, you know you're going to

455
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,720
Speaker 1: get kind of just that added, you know, media attention.

456
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:08,240
Speaker 1: He's awesome, you know, clearly was hurt last year, so

457
00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:11,399
Speaker 1: only through twenty one and two thirds innings, but was

458
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:14,120
Speaker 1: his usual excellent self. In that twenty one and two

459
00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:16,560
Speaker 1: thirds innings. He still had a war of one point four,

460
00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:19,359
Speaker 1: which is wild. He had thirty eight strikeouts, his whip

461
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 1: was under one, his ERA was under two for the

462
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 1: third straight season. I don't need to tell you that

463
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,920
Speaker 1: Devin Williams is one of the premier strikeout relief pitchers

464
00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:31,080
Speaker 1: in baseball. I don't really think there's any competition in

465
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:34,200
Speaker 1: New York for him, you know, in that closer role.

466
00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:36,480
Speaker 1: I'm very confident if he's healthy, he's going to be

467
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,200
Speaker 1: in that spot all year. I know there's some injury

468
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:41,280
Speaker 1: stuff going on with the Yankees, but I still anticipate

469
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,960
Speaker 1: them winning a lot of games. I'm not worried about

470
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:45,680
Speaker 1: the ballpark because he's going to strike out a lot

471
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 1: of guys. I just think he's an awesome, awesome pitcher.

472
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:52,879
Speaker 1: His RI plus just you know, I'm not saying it's

473
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:54,480
Speaker 1: a perfect stat, but it's just fun to read out

474
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,480
Speaker 1: in sane is well. Remember, one hundred is league average

475
00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 1: in his career every season one point fifteen one, three

476
00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:04,119
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy five, one sixty six, two oh nine,

477
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:08,680
Speaker 1: two eighty two, three forty one. He's just always always excellent.

478
00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 1: He has received silent votes in the past. He finished

479
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:14,119
Speaker 1: seventh as a rookie in twenty twenty in that voting

480
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,880
Speaker 1: again twenty twenty a little bit different seasons, so that

481
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 1: that kind of helps early pitcher. But the other thing

482
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:21,920
Speaker 1: to think about is there's not a ton of great

483
00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:26,040
Speaker 1: cy young options in the American League. Obviously, schoo Ball

484
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,680
Speaker 1: is the favorite. I'm actually just assuming he's a favorite.

485
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:30,320
Speaker 1: I didn't look up the odds, so I can't imagine

486
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 1: it's anybody else. I'm assume he's a favorite by a

487
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 1: wide gap. He won it unanimously last year, but other

488
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 1: relief pictures were receiving votes last year because there wasn't

489
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:42,120
Speaker 1: a ton of great starting pitching talent in the American League.

490
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:44,679
Speaker 1: So now that he's in the AL with a you know,

491
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:46,720
Speaker 1: very premier team that people are going to be watching

492
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 1: a lot, He's going to strike out a lot of guys.

493
00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:49,960
Speaker 1: He's gonna win a lot of big games playing for

494
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 1: the Yankees, closing out a lot of game big games.

495
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 1: I should say, I think he's not just get a

496
00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,119
Speaker 1: couple of like down ballot cy Young votes. I think

497
00:21:57,160 --> 00:22:00,840
Speaker 1: he's going to get multiple top three cy Young votes,

498
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,359
Speaker 1: although none of them will be number one, would be

499
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:04,879
Speaker 1: my prediction. What do you think about that?

500
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 2: I think you didn't clarify that none of them would

501
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 2: be number one when you put this in the sheet.

502
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:10,440
Speaker 2: You did right, top three in the sheet.

503
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:14,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's gonna get he might get one second place vote.

504
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,119
Speaker 1: He might get one in your third place or a

505
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,880
Speaker 1: couple third places. I'm not saying he's gonna nobody's gonna

506
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 1: go in and say he's he is the cy Young,

507
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:22,440
Speaker 1: but I think he's gonna get votes. I didn't want

508
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:24,439
Speaker 1: to just say down ballot because like you can just

509
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 1: get like a fifth place one to the best reliever

510
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 1: or whatever. That happens a lot of years. I think

511
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:29,439
Speaker 1: he gets multiple in the top three.

512
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 2: Do you think he has a real stick shot of

513
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 2: winning it?

514
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 1: I think I think Scooball is too good.

515
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 2: Because I was gonna say, I just pulled up the

516
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:40,119
Speaker 2: cy Young odds for the American League on betting Pros,

517
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 2: and you usually chicken out when I try to toss

518
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:45,160
Speaker 2: this stuff to you. But do you want to take

519
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 2: a guess if what his odds are? Or are you

520
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:47,640
Speaker 2: gonna chicken out like usual?

521
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 1: What his odds are? I don't know? Plus six thousand.

522
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 2: Oh, we gotta go way higher than that, way higher

523
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:58,040
Speaker 2: in that this is this is so high it's worth

524
00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 2: putting one hundred bucks on it because it would be

525
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:02,959
Speaker 2: life changing money. He's plus thirty thousand.

526
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:07,679
Speaker 1: No, really, Uh, you're right, I shulgarn Away higher. Well, well,

527
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 1: I was thinking so obviously for this to happen, he

528
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 1: needs to be the best relief pitcher this year, and well,

529
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 1: like last year, didn't Clay finish third. So no idea,

530
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:22,399
Speaker 1: we've seen We've seen a very high level reliever finish.

531
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure.

532
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 2: Do you mean class A? Is that what you're saying, Emmanuel?

533
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 2: Class isn't a, class A, just say.

534
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:30,160
Speaker 1: Clais I used to say class A and somebody wants

535
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:32,719
Speaker 1: corrected me to say it actually is Claise, So I switched.

536
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:34,919
Speaker 1: Did that person screw with me?

537
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 2: I don't know.

538
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:39,439
Speaker 1: I used to say class A and then somebody like

539
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 1: messaged me and they said, hey, like it's clay and

540
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,159
Speaker 1: he looks bad to say it wrong. Now you've got

541
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 1: me thinking I've been I switched to saying it wrong.

542
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 2: I've only ever heard class But I also I spend

543
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 2: so much time reading all these names that like a

544
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 2: lot of times I was just like, how I like,

545
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 2: I say Ragons a lot even though I know it's not,

546
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 2: But like I said it on an episode of The

547
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 2: Second recently, I said, Cole Ragons.

548
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 1: Lugo finished second and Clay Slash class A finished third.

549
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 1: So I mean, if you're telling me that the best

550
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 1: relief pitcher in the league can finish third, then thirty

551
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:16,880
Speaker 1: thousand plus thirty thousand odds is pretty uh pretty enticing. Again,

552
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,479
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't think Devin Williams is going to win. Like,

553
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:21,920
Speaker 1: no part of me is coming on here saying he

554
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 1: is like set to win. Yeah, Baseball references class A.

555
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:27,159
Speaker 1: I don't know what this other guy who corrected me

556
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 1: was thinking. I think it is class.

557
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 2: Say so the youtos, we'll let you know. I'm sure.

558
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, I mean, like I said, that's how i'd

559
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 1: always pronounced it, and then I should have corroborated it

560
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 1: when I got corrected. At any rate, he finished third

561
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 1: last year, So I think that's like on the table

562
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:43,159
Speaker 1: for Devin Williams, the type of year I expect out

563
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 1: of him. I think he's gonna save forty games. I

564
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,399
Speaker 1: think he's gonna have an era of like, you know,

565
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:51,159
Speaker 1: one seventy and he's gonna strike out almost two batters

566
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 1: and it like he's just gonna be his usual self.

567
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:54,919
Speaker 1: But for a big market team's gonna get a lot

568
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 1: of attention.

569
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:57,640
Speaker 2: That's what I was gonna say. The Yankee you you're

570
00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 2: gonna get like the Derek Tutor Yankee booth, like just

571
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 2: being a Yankee as opposed to if you were a royal.

572
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:06,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, like it's that shouldn't matter, but it does.

573
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 1: And so yeah, that's why I'm going with Devin Williams

574
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 1: sticking with the Brewers esque theme because where it used

575
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,000
Speaker 1: to be wearing this jersey. All right, So who are

576
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 1: you going to give your cy Young prediction too? This year?

577
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 2: So I will say I already had this bold prediction

578
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 2: Q up and ready to go, because you know, we

579
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:28,360
Speaker 2: had to do some bold prediction research for Fantasy Fast

580
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:30,200
Speaker 2: and this is one of the ones I considered using

581
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 2: that I ended up coming with my Mike Drop bold

582
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 2: prediction for that segment. But I have pretty much the

583
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 2: same kind of bold prediction as you. As Devin Williams

584
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:40,160
Speaker 2: receives multiple top three sy Young votes, I think Clay

585
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 2: Holmes in the National League receives multiple sky Young votes.

586
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:48,640
Speaker 2: And one of the main reasons is we've seen this

587
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 2: trend recently of you know, good to average relievers making

588
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 2: the switch to full time starters and really taking off,

589
00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 2: and I think Clay Holmes could be the next to

590
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 2: do that. It's clear that he was a target for

591
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 2: the Mets. The Mets saw something in him. They signed

592
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 2: him like pretty immediately, and we're just like, he's a starter.

593
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 2: By the way, I know, we signed Clay Holmes, but

594
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 2: he's not a reliever. He's a starter for us. And

595
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 2: so I'm really intrigued by the profile there. I know

596
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:16,919
Speaker 2: you said you don't like to look at spring training stats,

597
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 2: but he could not have started spring training any better.

598
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 2: Nine and two thirds innings, thirteen strikeouts, zero runs allowed.

599
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 2: So he's off to a great start to obviously, like

600
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:26,920
Speaker 2: he's not pitching full games. He's pitching like two or

601
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,640
Speaker 2: three innings at a time. But I think he could

602
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 2: be the next pitcher where we see, you know, maybe

603
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 2: he jumps up to like one hundred and seventy one

604
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 2: hundred and seventy five innings, maybe a strikeout per inning.

605
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,440
Speaker 2: You know, he's his ERA last year was a little

606
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:43,719
Speaker 2: bit inflated compared to years before, but like pitching out

607
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:45,640
Speaker 2: of the bullpen, two point five four ERA in twenty

608
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 2: twenty two, twenty twenty three is two point eighty six.

609
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 2: I think we can kind of see him stretch out

610
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 2: and have the same kind of success. Because I don't

611
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 2: really have any scientific backing to back this, but like

612
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,399
Speaker 2: watching him, like as a believer, he felt kind of

613
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 2: like a starting pitcher who was relieving as opposed to

614
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 2: like someone like Edwin Diaz. It was like born to close.

615
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:05,679
Speaker 2: And I don't know, I feel like I can just

616
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 2: see it. I can see the transition going really well,

617
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 2: and he can be in like that Seth Lugo mold

618
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 2: where he just becomes a starter and it just clicks

619
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 2: and this is like the best fit for him.

620
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:17,919
Speaker 1: Have you looked up his odds, because I have it

621
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 1: up here. If you haven't looked it up, I had not.

622
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 2: I had the page open, but I imagine it's is

623
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 2: it plus thirty thousand?

624
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:29,640
Speaker 1: No, that's where it's actually drastically lower shorter odds. To clarify,

625
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:31,879
Speaker 1: it's half of it's plus fifteen thousand.

626
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 2: Oh, there you go. It's gotten the starter jump.

627
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 1: Still, you know, a reasonable that I would think.

628
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 2: But after such names as Matthew Boyd, Nick Pivetta and

629
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 2: edwardore Rutter.

630
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:44,679
Speaker 1: I guess I know I'm looking. I'm like, I just

631
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 1: scrolled down a bit and I'm seeing, like, you know,

632
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 1: Class A is plus twenty thousand. Because I'm just still

633
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 1: thinking about like the relievers. I know they're like very

634
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:56,640
Speaker 1: likely to not win, but considering he just finished third

635
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 1: last year, that just seems really like really long odds.

636
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:02,719
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe I'm thinking about it the wrong way. This

637
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 1: is obviously more of a fantasy show than betting, but

638
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:05,640
Speaker 1: it's interesting to look at.

639
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:08,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you can if you do your research right,

640
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:13,400
Speaker 2: you can use betting odds to help a fantasy, especially

641
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 2: for like daily lineups, so you can look at, you know,

642
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:17,399
Speaker 2: stats for the day and odds for the day, because

643
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 2: sports books don't exist because they lose money.

644
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 1: Definitely not what would you rather bet Devin Williams plus

645
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 1: switch say.

646
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:31,640
Speaker 2: I'd rather bet Devin Liams at those odds plus thirty

647
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,320
Speaker 2: thousand consensus odds. On top of it, I might, I might

648
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 2: actually bet that.

649
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 1: Where where is Williams ranked for you amongst relievers this year?

650
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 2: Let's see. I gotta imagine I have him pretty high.

651
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 1: And where is Holmes ranked for you amongst pictures? That

652
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 1: I think is an interesting.

653
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 2: One I have. I have him too behind Class A,

654
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:52,200
Speaker 2: and I feel like you can you can kind of

655
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 2: go either way with that one. I feel like the

656
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 2: tiebreaker there would be that Class A is just the

657
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 2: same picture, the same situation. Whereas you know Devin Williams

658
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 2: is going to New York, going to Yankee Stadium. That

659
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 2: is not insignificant to me, you know. So if you're

660
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 2: you're looking at the variables, I'd rather have the guy

661
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 2: who we've seen, you know, unchanged homes I have In

662
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 2: terms of relievers, I have him at thirty two, but

663
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 2: it's like trying to value his starting picture value as

664
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:22,720
Speaker 2: a reliever only.

665
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 1: All right, let's do our final bold predictions here. I

666
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 1: went first year two times, so I'll let you go

667
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 1: first in this one.

668
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 2: So my final bold prediction is another player we've talked

669
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 2: about a little bit recently. I know Joe and Welsh

670
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 2: talked about him a little bit, and then Kelly talked

671
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 2: about him on the first episode of the cycle that

672
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 2: we did when you were still recovering from your surgery.

673
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 2: Is that Sandi al Contra is another name I always

674
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 2: say wrong Sandy because I always want to say al Kantara.

675
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 2: Sandi all Contra finishes as a top ten starting pitcher

676
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 2: in fantasy, and he's currently SP fifty seven. If you

677
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 2: don't think that's bold enough as he recovers from his injury,

678
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:56,920
Speaker 2: gut rapid reaction, what do you think of it?

679
00:29:57,120 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 1: I like it. I mean, we've seen what the ceiling

680
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 1: can be from him him in the past went healthy,

681
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 1: and I like it not only in terms of a prediction,

682
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 1: but in terms of like what it can mean for

683
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 1: your draft in that this is a ceiling play that

684
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 1: you should be making where he's going in drafts. You know,

685
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 1: I just look at his page right now and Fanashy Pros,

686
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 1: their manager, said no innings limit is set on him

687
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 1: this year, like, which is why he's just ready to roll.

688
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 1: And if he's gonna be like close to a frontline

689
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 1: ace in terms of the usage, I'm super interested in that.

690
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 1: He's not even thirty years old yet, so it's not

691
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 1: like he's, you know, way past his prime. He just

692
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 1: had to major injury that a lot of pitchers deal with,

693
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 1: and he's back and supposedly not limited somehow. So I

694
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 1: mean twenty twenty two is obviously like the year for him.

695
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 1: I don't think he's going to be that level, but

696
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 1: I like this pick.

697
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 2: Yeah. The interesting thing, you're gonna have to get the

698
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 2: strikeouts from him, that's the that's the concern. But like

699
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 2: we've seen, like I said, twenty twenty too, he threw

700
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 2: two hundred and twenty eight innings in order to get

701
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 2: to two hundred and seven strikeouts of the strikeout rate

702
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 2: of twenty three point four percent last year dipped a

703
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 2: little bit, But you also have to you know, or

704
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 2: not last years ago. Yeah, twenty twenty three, because I

705
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 2: didn't pitch last year, but I don't know. I feel

706
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 2: like if you, you know, if he really truly doesn't

707
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 2: have a limitation, maybe we do see that jump. I

708
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 2: also don't think he's going to be with the Marlins

709
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 2: all year. I think in the second half of the

710
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 2: year he's going to be pitching for a very valuable organization,

711
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 2: you know that needs starting pitching, and he's going to be,

712
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 2: you know, winning a lot of games.

713
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 1: You gave his ranking. What's his ADP. I'm curious if

714
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 1: it's higher than where he's ranked.

715
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 2: I gave his ADP his fifty seven.

716
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 1: Oh oh, I'm sorry, I thought you gave his No,

717
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 1: he's overall ADP. I'm sorry, not not almongst pitchers. Okay,

718
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 1: So in that what is that fourteenth round?

719
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 2: It?

720
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 1: No, thirteenth round, early thirteenth. I could ever do the

721
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 1: math on that quickly.

722
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 2: I'm not even going to try to do the math.

723
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 2: You're not going to catch me with that in the

724
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 2: YouTube comments.

725
00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 1: I believe that would be early thirteenth, right, because twelve

726
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 1: rounds of a twelve team league would be one forty four,

727
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 1: so very beginning of round thirteen. Yeah, at that cost, Again,

728
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 1: if he really doesn't have innings restrictions.

729
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 2: Twelve rounds according to my phone calculator.

730
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 1: How is that possible?

731
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 2: I did one forty five divided by twelve.

732
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 1: That would be twelve point something. It would be twelve

733
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 1: point twelve point two. Yes, so that's early thirteenth round

734
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: because you finished the twelfth round and then it's the

735
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 1: next pick.

736
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 2: Okay. I was thinking it would be like twelve point

737
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 2: oh eight, but I guess there is no zero round.

738
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, I listen, we can't have We just had

739
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 1: a math. We can't now have a math problem.

740
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 2: Well, let's just count these one by one, so you

741
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 2: have the one oh one and then you got the

742
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 2: one o two.

743
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 1: I am positive, I am right. Twelve rounds is one

744
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 1: hundred and forty four picks in a twelve team league.

745
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 1: I have no doubt that I'm correct.

746
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 2: About this YouTube YouTube is it? Don't need to let

747
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 2: us know is a thirteenth round.

748
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 1: Let's no, there's no confusion. It's like the first pick

749
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 1: the thirteenth round. Okay. Anything else in him or anyone

750
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 1: moved to my bull prediction, I.

751
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 2: Would say the only other thing we can mention about

752
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 2: him is the something that Joe and Welsh brought up

753
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 2: like a month ago when they were first kind of

754
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:17,959
Speaker 2: talking about him and being excited about him. Is that,

755
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 2: you know, when you're recovering from Tommy John, kind of

756
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 2: the controls the last thing to come. But that's always

757
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 2: been his strength. And so if he can come back

758
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 2: maybe throwing a little bit harder and is quicker to

759
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 2: find that control, you know, that's why he's like someone

760
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 2: you can be like. You know, because like if you

761
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 2: had to pick like one pitcher in the major leagues

762
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 2: who maybe you're not that worried about, like him refinding

763
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 2: is you know, rediscovering his control, it would be uh,

764
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 2: Sandy al Contra, who also zero points zero zero era

765
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 2: in spring training. I know you love spring training stats.

766
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 1: Love it all. Right, let's look at my final prediction.

767
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 1: So I'm going with Chandler Simpson raised prospect to lead

768
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 1: Major League Baseball in store basis. Interestingly, and we keep

769
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 1: referencing the fest because we just recorded it yesterday. In

770
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 1: our segment, we had picks from George Bissel for Victor

771
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 1: Rowis to lead the league in sol bases. Then we

772
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 1: had a pick from Scott Pianowski for was a Xavior

773
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,760
Speaker 1: Edwards was his pick to lead the league in solar bases.

774
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 1: I'm going with Chandler Simpson the raised prospect. If you

775
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,280
Speaker 1: kind of read some of his evaluations as a prospect,

776
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:26,479
Speaker 1: like on MLB Pipeline, one of the lines that comes

777
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 1: up that evaluators have said about him is on the

778
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 1: twenty to eighty scouting scale, his speed is a ninety

779
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 1: and might be closer to one hundred. That is the

780
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 1: way he has talked about in terms of how fast

781
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:41,400
Speaker 1: he is as a player. He also is an excellent

782
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,839
Speaker 1: contact hitter. He has absolutely zero power. I doubt he'll

783
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 1: hit a single home run all season. I think what

784
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 1: the joke is actually is his on the twenty eighty scale,

785
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 1: his speed is a ninety and his powers a ten

786
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,840
Speaker 1: because it's not existent, but he can hit for contact.

787
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:57,359
Speaker 1: I think it's I think he's a sixty maybe even

788
00:34:57,520 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 1: sixty five in some places, hit for average in the

789
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 1: minors in the past. This is, you know, part of

790
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:05,840
Speaker 1: his skill set. But what he does is see steals bases.

791
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:08,279
Speaker 1: You were looking it up before the show because you

792
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 1: hadn't really given him much consideration until I brought this up.

793
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 1: As you told me, he's still one hundred and four

794
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 1: bases last season, and by the way, the year before

795
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 1: he stole ninety four. So in the last two years

796
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 1: he's stole a one hundred and ninety eight bases across

797
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 1: two seasons.

798
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 2: He just let me take that math.

799
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, and that's in two hundred and twenty five games,

800
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 1: so he's like almost getting you with steel every single game.

801
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 1: His batting average last season was three fifty five. His

802
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 1: OBP was over four hundred, so his OBP is higher

803
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 1: than his slugging percentage, which is always funny. This is

804
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 1: the player he is. He's a guy who's going to

805
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 1: get on base. And by the way, he can get

806
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 1: on base with a bouncer to third because he is

807
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 1: so fast he's home to first. I think he was

808
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 1: clocked it. I want to say it was like three

809
00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:56,399
Speaker 1: point eight seconds. You know, when we get stack cast

810
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:58,240
Speaker 1: out of for him, it's going to be the fastest

811
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 1: sprint speed. I guarantee it's over thirty feet per second.

812
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 1: I mean, he the dude can absolutely fly. He gets

813
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:06,399
Speaker 1: on base, and I know he's not currently at least

814
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 1: as of the last time I checked. Didn't seem like

815
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:11,919
Speaker 1: he was maybe set to be breaking camp with the Rays,

816
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 1: which is why I can started. It to be a

817
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:15,640
Speaker 1: bold prediction because if he's not even starting the year,

818
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 1: he's gonna be kind of behind the eight ball in

819
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:20,919
Speaker 1: terms of this race. But I think there's an opportunity

820
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 1: for him in their outfield, Like I don't see why

821
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 1: I don't see anybody in their outfield that's gonna like

822
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:29,439
Speaker 1: prevent him if he's he's blogging exactly, and he's twenty four.

823
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 1: It's not like this dude's twenty you know, they want

824
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 1: to give him more time to you know, a little

825
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:34,799
Speaker 1: more seasoning in the minors. Like he's twenty four years old.

826
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 1: He is elite, elite, elite elite at this one, like

827
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,799
Speaker 1: pretty valuable skill. It's easier to get steals than ever. Like,

828
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna put a number to it. I'm not

829
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 1: gonna say, oh, he's gonna steal ninety bases again or anything,

830
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:47,239
Speaker 1: because again, I don't know when he's gonna be at

831
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 1: the big league level, but I'm gonna say that once

832
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:52,279
Speaker 1: he's there, in like eighty five percent of games, he's

833
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:55,320
Speaker 1: getting you a stolen base, and that's gonna be pretty

834
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 1: darn valuable. And by the way, he's as free as

835
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:01,080
Speaker 1: free gets in a d I want to see if

836
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 1: it's moved at all, but the last time I looked,

837
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 1: it was quite low. Yeah, his ADP's in the five hundreds.

838
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 1: So it's not like he's gonna cost you anything. Now.

839
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 1: I getting the part of that is the fact that he's,

840
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 1: you know, probably gonna be a minor leaguer to start

841
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 1: the year. But if you are in any kind of

842
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 1: league where steels are valuable to you, this is a

843
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:19,799
Speaker 1: guy I'm really interested in and going on a limb,

844
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 1: I'm saying he's gonna lead the league in s soul

845
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:22,239
Speaker 1: bases this year.

846
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:26,319
Speaker 2: I'll add a bonus bullet prediction to Chandler Simpson. He

847
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 2: finishes with three home runs, but two of them are

848
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,880
Speaker 2: inside the park home runs, two.

849
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:34,239
Speaker 1: In the park runs. That's pretty good bold prediction.

850
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 2: Especially you play some games in Fenway. If he can

851
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 2: get one into the triangle of Fenway, he's a lock

852
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 2: for home for inside the run.

853
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:44,800
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, he's one of those guys that makes speed fun.

854
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 1: Like you always hear you chicks dig the long ball

855
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 1: and stuff like we're gonna be digging seeing his home

856
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 1: to first splits, like this dude is so freaking fast,

857
00:37:55,840 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 1: it's gonna be really fun to watch. So yeah, yeah,

858
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 1: I was trying to look up his uh his odds here.

859
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 1: Like I said, it's not not listed. So I can't

860
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 1: currently bet on at least on any of the sites

861
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:09,960
Speaker 1: that we have on bettingpros dot com.

862
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 2: But uh, once another another Simpson question for you. Who

863
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 2: do you think would steal more bases? Bart Simpson or

864
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:15,960
Speaker 2: Lisa Simpson.

865
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 1: I have watched one episode of The Simpsons in my life.

866
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 2: Blasphemous. We'll we'll take into that another episode.

867
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 1: I think we talked about it a little bit last

868
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:29,399
Speaker 1: year when you first used the word cromulent. Oh, yeah,

869
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 1: I've seen I've seen one episode. It's the episode where.

870
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 2: Is a perfectly promulent word.

871
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's when we eats a bunch of donuts. That's

872
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 1: that's the only episode. I well. It's like he's like

873
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 1: they like force feed him donuts.

874
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 2: Oh he's in hell. Yeah, he's in hell getting force

875
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:47,600
Speaker 2: fed donuts. And then he's like they're like torturing him

876
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 2: and he's like just getting bigger and bigger.

877
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:52,399
Speaker 1: Yeah. I had never seen an episode until like three

878
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:54,759
Speaker 1: or four years ago, and my old roommate was like,

879
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:56,799
Speaker 1: we have to watch what you've never seen one. Here's

880
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 1: a great one to watch, and we watch it. I

881
00:38:58,120 --> 00:38:59,760
Speaker 1: was like, that's pretty good, and I've watched another.

882
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 2: I'm the Simpsons like fanatic. I've written like reviews of

883
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 2: the Christmas episodes.

884
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 1: So what's your answer, then, which Simpson steals more basis?

885
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:10,440
Speaker 2: I think it would be sneaky Lisa, because while I

886
00:39:10,520 --> 00:39:14,799
Speaker 2: think Bart is more athletic, he's also really dumb, and

887
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 2: Lisa is the genie.

888
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 1: Rides to the skateboard. That's like, you know, requires some

889
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:21,360
Speaker 1: dexterity in the legs and some balance.

890
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm giving him the athleticism, but I think you

891
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 2: need to be really smart to steal bases, and I

892
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 2: think over the course of a season, Lisa would figure

893
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:31,399
Speaker 2: out a way to be effective doing it.

894
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 1: All right, let us know in the comments, Bart Simpson,

895
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:37,720
Speaker 1: Lisa Simpson, or Chandler Simpson who you like league install

896
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 1: bases this season? All right, let's get to some of

897
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:44,320
Speaker 1: our listener predictions. Go a little quicker on these so

898
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:46,279
Speaker 1: pretty good ones here, Some that I like, some that

899
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 1: I'm less, you know, on board with O'Neil Cruz to

900
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 1: go forty forty and back to sixty. That is a bold,

901
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:56,640
Speaker 1: bold prediction for sure, Where did this one come from? There?

902
00:39:57,160 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 2: That one? So I pulled some of these from YouTube comment,

903
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:04,360
Speaker 2: some of these from Reddit. I found a bold prediction

904
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:06,239
Speaker 2: subreddit that was like just posted like a day or

905
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:07,400
Speaker 2: two ago. So I was like, oh, this is a

906
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:09,600
Speaker 2: cool thread to go through. So shout out to the

907
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 2: Fantasy Baseball subreddit. Great job guys, And some are from

908
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 2: our discord. The only thing is I did not write

909
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 2: down where I pulled any of them from, and I,

910
00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 2: as you saw, I pulled them down at like one

911
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:24,680
Speaker 2: in the morning, and so I don't remember. I think

912
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 2: this one was Reddit.

913
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 1: Well what do you think about this prediction?

914
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 2: I think it's bold. I think it's very bold, and

915
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:35,719
Speaker 2: I don't think I mean, like two sixty is fine

916
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 2: because that's essentially what he badded last year, so I'm

917
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:40,799
Speaker 2: on board with that. But forty forty is pretty much

918
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:43,719
Speaker 2: doubling what he did last year, and that's not going

919
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 2: to happen unless he cuts down that strikeout. Right now,

920
00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 2: maybe I'm being a little bit hypocritical there because on

921
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 2: the other half, I'm already like hoping and projecting that

922
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:54,239
Speaker 2: Ellie day Light Cruiz cuts down his thirty percent strikeout right,

923
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 2: but I don't see it. It's it's bold.

924
00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 1: Do you think thirty three would be super bold?

925
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:05,359
Speaker 2: I think it would be regular bold. But I think

926
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 2: it's you know, it's within his you know, range of

927
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:12,080
Speaker 2: outcomes with the natural progression, and projections are not that

928
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:14,879
Speaker 2: far off like his his top projection for home runs

929
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 2: of twenty six and for stolen bases is twenty three.

930
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:20,160
Speaker 2: And you know, not to sound like a broken record,

931
00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:22,640
Speaker 2: but like I always say, projections are generally conservative, they're

932
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:25,279
Speaker 2: not they're not bold. They're not predicting the breakouts or

933
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:28,440
Speaker 2: you know, the huge jumps, and so I think that's

934
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 2: perfectly within his range of outcomes to go thirty thirty.

935
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:32,200
Speaker 2: I don't think he's going to get forty forty though.

936
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 1: I really he might have been a good fit for

937
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:38,200
Speaker 1: our episode of Guys that I struggle to rank, because I, yeah,

938
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 1: for sure, I struggle a lot with Cruise this year.

939
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:43,120
Speaker 1: I actually end up keeping him in our league that

940
00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 1: we're in with Dan Harris as the commissioner, and I

941
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:48,280
Speaker 1: don't even really know how I feel about that decision,

942
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:50,239
Speaker 1: even though I've already made the decision. It's locked in.

943
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 1: There's like a cost assigned with keeping him, of course

944
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 1: in that league, but it definitely is bold. But he's

945
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 1: also super talented, So I he cruises a guy that

946
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:01,520
Speaker 1: I don't really have much of this year, just because

947
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:03,480
Speaker 1: I kind of throw my hands up and don't really

948
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 1: know what to do with him that much. Next player here,

949
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:09,160
Speaker 1: Michael Confordo, also somebody that I believe Scott Pianowski talked

950
00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:12,240
Speaker 1: about on the Fest yesterday. This prediction here at Confordo

951
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 1: to hit thirty plus home runs and drive in eighty

952
00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 1: five plus runs. I always want to call him Toe

953
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:19,759
Speaker 1: because I used to. I used to work and live

954
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 1: with the guy who had formerly worked in the miners

955
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:26,279
Speaker 1: with the Mets and became good friends with him, and

956
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:28,720
Speaker 1: he just called him Toe. So I always a'm like, oh, yeah,

957
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 1: how's Toe doing? You know though I've never met him,

958
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:31,879
Speaker 1: it just became like the way I referred to him,

959
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 1: but no full name. Michael Conforida, I'll be respectful. Thirty

960
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 1: home runs in eighty five RBI. What do you think

961
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:37,880
Speaker 1: about that?

962
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:40,319
Speaker 2: I just don't know he's going to play enough to

963
00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:42,600
Speaker 2: I know. Scott Pianowski was very excited about this and

964
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:45,319
Speaker 2: the idea that the Dodgers could be resting players, and

965
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:47,279
Speaker 2: he could be in the lineup more. I also know

966
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:49,400
Speaker 2: that Dave Roberts like loves to like Max some match it,

967
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 2: you know his lineups. Confordo has a bit of an

968
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:54,440
Speaker 2: injury history that you kind of want to be aware of.

969
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:56,600
Speaker 2: And he's not the youngest guy anymore. He's thirty two now.

970
00:42:57,239 --> 00:42:58,839
Speaker 2: I just don't know if he's going to be in

971
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:01,680
Speaker 2: there like every single in that lineup in order to

972
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:03,440
Speaker 2: be able to hit home I mean, like the RBI.

973
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:06,480
Speaker 2: If he plays enough, every time he gets up, he's

974
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:08,360
Speaker 2: probably gonna have two people on base in that lineup,

975
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,839
Speaker 2: So RBI seems pretty reasonable. I don't know that he's

976
00:43:11,880 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 2: going to hit thirty home runs. But the other thing

977
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:15,319
Speaker 2: that Scott Pian ask you mentioned is that he spent

978
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 2: the last two years at Oracle Park, which is not

979
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 2: the friendliest confines for hitters unless you know, you look

980
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 2: like Barry Bonds. So in that sense, I can kind

981
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:27,839
Speaker 2: of see it. He's only hit thirty home runs once

982
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:29,799
Speaker 2: in his career, in it twenty nineteen, which is one

983
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 2: of the Super Bowl years, and he played one hundred

984
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:35,399
Speaker 2: fifty one games and hit thirty three home runs that year,

985
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:37,959
Speaker 2: and he was twenty six at the time he's thirty two. Now,

986
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 2: I mean it's bold. I could see it if he

987
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 2: plays enough and stays healthy. I just don't know he's

988
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 2: going to I love.

989
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:48,040
Speaker 1: This next one, Cody Bellinger to hit more home runs

990
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 1: than Aaron Judge. I think this is an ideal bold

991
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 1: prediction because it's very out there, but I can not

992
00:43:56,840 --> 00:43:58,520
Speaker 1: It's not that much of a challenge to squirt my

993
00:43:58,560 --> 00:44:02,360
Speaker 1: eyes and see the where this happens. Obviously, Bellinger is

994
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:04,320
Speaker 1: going to be such a great fit as a lefty

995
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 1: at Yankee Stadium. He's going to get home runs there.

996
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:09,720
Speaker 1: I've always just been a fan of his in general.

997
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:11,879
Speaker 1: I love the idea of him not just in his park,

998
00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 1: but in the Yankees' lineup. Maybe a little more for

999
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:15,799
Speaker 1: what it means for the Yankees than for fantasy, but

1000
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:19,080
Speaker 1: I still do like it for fantasy, and I wouldn't

1001
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 1: be some you know, Judge as dealt with injuries in

1002
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 1: the past, including last year. He's not gonna hit six

1003
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 1: ye home runs every year, right, Like, I think this

1004
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:31,320
Speaker 1: is a really fun bull prediction that I could see happening.

1005
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 2: I think it's a really fun one. I do think

1006
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:37,240
Speaker 2: you need an Aaron Judge injury for it to happen,

1007
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 2: although Cody Balinger should be batting behind Aaron Judge, so

1008
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 2: if they're doing a lot of walking, Aaron Judge and

1009
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:45,360
Speaker 2: Cody Bellinger just refines everything in that ballpark, which is

1010
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:47,440
Speaker 2: a you know, a really nice ballpark to be in

1011
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 2: as a left handed hitter. You know, I could see

1012
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:53,399
Speaker 2: it happening, but you do need Aaron Judge to miss

1013
00:44:53,400 --> 00:44:55,439
Speaker 2: some time for it to happen, just because he's he's

1014
00:44:55,480 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 2: so good, and yeah, unreal power for Aaron Judge.

1015
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:03,440
Speaker 1: How many home runs? Like generally are you expecting to

1016
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:05,919
Speaker 1: see from Belgier this year? Like, what's what's the rough

1017
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:07,600
Speaker 1: range you're looking at?

1018
00:45:07,880 --> 00:45:10,960
Speaker 2: I think if he stays healthy, he's forting thirty for sure.

1019
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 2: But I don't think that's his ceiling, you know. I

1020
00:45:14,080 --> 00:45:15,920
Speaker 2: think if we know.

1021
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 1: The ceiling is as much higher because we've seen it.

1022
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:23,359
Speaker 2: It's been forty seven, it's forty seven. Yeah, also super

1023
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 2: Bowl year, but Super Bowl is also it's essentially the

1024
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 2: same thing as playing in the Yankee Stadium. And maybe

1025
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 2: they'll get some of those Aaron Judge Super Bowls that

1026
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:33,439
Speaker 2: they got caught using.

1027
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:38,280
Speaker 1: Maybe, Yeah, since that year his totals. I mean twenty

1028
00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:41,319
Speaker 1: twenty was just twelve obviously shortened season. The other four

1029
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 1: years were ten, nineteen, twenty six, and eighteen, so thirty

1030
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:49,760
Speaker 1: would be definitively a step up. But again, given the park,

1031
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 1: I like this quite a bit. Actually, I mean again,

1032
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 1: it's bold, right, I'm not saying I'm gonna go bet

1033
00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:59,920
Speaker 1: Cody Belcher to lead the league in homers, but I

1034
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 1: think it's a I think it's a fun one, and

1035
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 1: I would be less surprised by this than I would

1036
00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:09,400
Speaker 1: a like O'Neil Cruz forty forty season with a two

1037
00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:11,280
Speaker 1: sixty average.

1038
00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:14,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, assuming Aaron Judge miss this time. I don't think

1039
00:46:14,719 --> 00:46:16,880
Speaker 2: there's a world where Aaron Judge doesn't miss time and

1040
00:46:16,960 --> 00:46:19,879
Speaker 2: Cody Bounder is still it's more home runs in him.

1041
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 1: What do you think Bellinger is odds to lead baseball.

1042
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:26,920
Speaker 2: In home runs plus thirty thousand.

1043
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:29,240
Speaker 1: Plus eighteen thousand, although some places he's more like plus

1044
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 1: ten thousand. But in kind of that range, Judge is,

1045
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 1: you know, plus two sixty plus four hundred something like that,

1046
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:39,719
Speaker 1: depending where you look. All right, last one earld Is

1047
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 1: Chapman to lead the American League in saves.

1048
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 2: I like it. It's bold. He's not even technically the closer.

1049
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:50,279
Speaker 2: Right now, you're banking on the Red Sox to be

1050
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:54,719
Speaker 2: better than their projections. Although you don't necessarily need to

1051
00:46:54,760 --> 00:46:55,960
Speaker 2: be a really good team to have a ton of,

1052
00:46:56,040 --> 00:46:57,840
Speaker 2: you know, safe opportunities. I think in the law of

1053
00:46:57,840 --> 00:47:00,000
Speaker 2: averages it helps to have a really good team unless

1054
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 2: you're just so good that you're winning by seven every night.

1055
00:47:02,560 --> 00:47:06,799
Speaker 2: But Hendricks Leam Hendricks is struggling a little bit not

1056
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:08,800
Speaker 2: you know, like we said, we don't want to overvalue

1057
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:11,479
Speaker 2: like spring training stats, but this is a picture who

1058
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 2: you know, has dealt with injuries. We haven't really kind

1059
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:16,200
Speaker 2: of seen him bounce all the way back, and so

1060
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:18,840
Speaker 2: in the spring you'd kind of want to see him

1061
00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:22,000
Speaker 2: fully back and like taking on that job. But so

1062
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:24,400
Speaker 2: far it's been Chapman that looks really good and Hendricks

1063
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:26,400
Speaker 2: has kind of been up and down. So I think

1064
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 2: there's a world where Chapman takes that job pretty earlier

1065
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:32,719
Speaker 2: in the year, doesn't relinquish that job, and you know,

1066
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:35,120
Speaker 2: has an outside shot at leading the al and saves

1067
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 2: as a bold but possible prediction.

1068
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:39,759
Speaker 1: I get what they're going for. I don't think it's

1069
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 1: going to happen. I mean part of that is we

1070
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 1: just talked to why it's bold, how much we like

1071
00:47:43,239 --> 00:47:46,839
Speaker 1: Devin Williams or class A. I actually think the less

1072
00:47:46,840 --> 00:47:48,480
Speaker 1: about him. I think the Red Sox are a very

1073
00:47:48,520 --> 00:47:51,680
Speaker 1: good team if they have a clear closer the whole year.

1074
00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:53,600
Speaker 1: For that closer to rack up a ton of saves.

1075
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:55,160
Speaker 1: I think that's because I think they're gonna win a

1076
00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:57,120
Speaker 1: lot of games, but not by so much that there's

1077
00:47:57,160 --> 00:47:58,920
Speaker 1: not a lot of save opportunities is kind of my

1078
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:03,359
Speaker 1: expectation for them. So I actually think aiming for that

1079
00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:08,120
Speaker 1: closer position is a good one. Obviously, we would need

1080
00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:10,440
Speaker 1: to see how it pans out in terms of the

1081
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:14,759
Speaker 1: actual opportunities he's getting as a Lockton closer. But also,

1082
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 1: how do you know how old Chapman is.

1083
00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:17,800
Speaker 2: Now thirty seven?

1084
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:21,279
Speaker 1: He is, He's almost exactly thirty seven. Well done. His

1085
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:24,120
Speaker 1: thirty seventh birthday was like two weeks ago.

1086
00:48:24,719 --> 00:48:28,320
Speaker 2: Sweet to wish my happy birthday. I forgot Lacall.

1087
00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:31,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, we'll wrap it up there on our

1088
00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:33,480
Speaker 1: bold predictions, just a quick reminder of the ones that

1089
00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:35,719
Speaker 1: we threw out there. I guess we can look back

1090
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:36,919
Speaker 1: at the end of the year and see how we did.

1091
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:39,319
Speaker 1: I have Jackson Curio going thirty thirty with a three

1092
00:48:39,400 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 1: hundred average, and he's a consensus top three pick at

1093
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:44,319
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six drafts. So I have Devin Williams to

1094
00:48:44,360 --> 00:48:47,400
Speaker 1: receive multiple top three cy Young votes this year, and

1095
00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 1: Chandler Simpson to lead Major League Baseball in stolen bases.

1096
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:53,719
Speaker 1: Mayor has Elie de la Cruz producing one hundred combined

1097
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:56,920
Speaker 1: home runs and stolen bases. He also is Clay Holmes

1098
00:48:56,920 --> 00:49:00,720
Speaker 1: receiving multiple sy Young votes in Sandy Al Contra finishing

1099
00:49:00,760 --> 00:49:05,200
Speaker 1: as a top ten starting pitcher in Fantasy. Any other

1100
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:06,200
Speaker 1: thoughts before we get out of here.

1101
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:09,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, YouTube comments, don't forget to go in there and

1102
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:13,520
Speaker 2: let worm know that you approve of the red undershirt

1103
00:49:13,840 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 2: under the royal blue jersey. It's royal blue. It's royal blue.

1104
00:49:17,200 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 1: Right, yes, it is royal blue that much, I'm sure.

1105
00:49:20,120 --> 00:49:23,960
Speaker 1: Please don't do that, but do go in the comments

1106
00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:26,240
Speaker 1: and let us know what you think. For next week's episode,

1107
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:29,319
Speaker 1: which is going to be some yearbook superlatives, We're gonna

1108
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:32,440
Speaker 1: make some predictions of you know, most likely to succeed

1109
00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:36,800
Speaker 1: you class clown, those kind of classic eearbook superllets. We

1110
00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:38,360
Speaker 1: haven't decided in all the categories yet. If there's a

1111
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:39,759
Speaker 1: category you want to hear us, say drop it in

1112
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 1: the comments. If there's any players that you think you

1113
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:44,560
Speaker 1: know you already want to kind of assign some of

1114
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:46,840
Speaker 1: these players to certain categories, you could throw those in

1115
00:49:46,840 --> 00:49:48,560
Speaker 1: the comments as well. We'll let you know what we

1116
00:49:48,560 --> 00:49:50,959
Speaker 1: think next week. But yeah, youarbook superlatives for the twenty

1117
00:49:51,000 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 1: twenty five season, kind of predicting that will be next

1118
00:49:53,640 --> 00:49:56,680
Speaker 1: week's episode. Thanks everybody for listening in to the Fast

1119
00:49:56,680 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 1: if you listened yesterday or listening later. Thanks everybody for

1120
00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 1: listening to today's episode on bold Predictions you can't hold

1121
00:50:02,040 --> 00:50:04,839
Speaker 1: us to for mayor, I'm Ryan Warmley. We will see

1122
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:08,280
Speaker 1: you again next week. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy

1123
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:11,520
Speaker 1: Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast. If you love the show, the

1124
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:14,120
Speaker 1: best freeway to support us is by leaving a positive

1125
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:18,600
Speaker 1: review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, Follow us on x, Instagram,

1126
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 1: and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube

1127
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:24,680
Speaker 1: channel at YouTube dot com Slash Fantasy Pros MLB