1 00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:03,240 Speaker 1: What's going on everybody. Scott Bagman here for betting pros 2 00:00:03,279 --> 00:00:05,520 Speaker 1: to give you my favorite picks and props four Week 3 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 1: five of the college football season. Before we dive into 4 00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:11,479 Speaker 1: the action, let me remind you guys that we are 5 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: brought to you by our new presenting sponsors, a hard 6 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:17,320 Speaker 1: Rock Bet app role with hard Rock Bet this season. 7 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:19,239 Speaker 1: It is a lot of fun. You can sign up 8 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:21,440 Speaker 1: today with hard Rock Bet, place your first five dollars 9 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:23,759 Speaker 1: bet and if it wins, you'll score one hundred and 10 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 1: fifty bucks and bonus bets on top of your winnings. 11 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 1: That's just one more reason to check out the hard 12 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: Rock Bet app and see why it gets so many 13 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 1: stars and such great ratings. It's our last show of 14 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:36,520 Speaker 1: the week before Sunday, so if you're looking for more 15 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 1: insights on what you can bet before then just go 16 00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: check the hard Rock Bet stats hub right there in 17 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 1: the app, and look, there's a bunch of information and 18 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: trends are giving us right here. Kansas City has won 19 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: ten straight home games against AFC opponents. Jalen Hurts has 20 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 1: reached the end zone in six consecutive games. Miami has 21 00:00:57,120 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 1: won nine home games in a row against the Jet 22 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 1: Cleveland hasn't covered the spread on the road in six 23 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 1: consecutive games. Kyron Williams has scored the first touchdown in 24 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 1: five consecutive LA home games. That's a crazy streak, and 25 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 1: as you know, first touchdown bets pay even more than 26 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 1: any time touchdown bet plenty more where that came from. 27 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 1: It's all one tap away at any time on the 28 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 1: hard Rock Bet app. On hard Rock Bet, you can 29 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:26,360 Speaker 1: get profit boosts for football parlays every day through Monday, 30 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 1: back to back College profit boost today and Saturday, plus 31 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:33,840 Speaker 1: a profit boost for Sunday games and another on Monday night. 32 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 1: There's new promos every single day, so no matter when 33 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 1: you listen to this, open the app and check out 34 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 1: what you've got, any day of the week. Download the 35 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 1: hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit today. 36 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 2: Payble and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by 37 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 2: the Seminole Tribe of Florida. In Florida, offered by the 38 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 2: Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC. In other states. Must be 39 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 2: twenty one and physically president in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, 40 00:01:57,080 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 2: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play terms and 41 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 2: conditions of play. Concerned about gambling in Florida called one 42 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 2: eight eight eight admit it. In Indiana. If you are 43 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 2: something you know has a gambling problem and wants help, 44 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 2: call one eight hundred and nine with it gambling problem 45 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 2: called one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. 46 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 1: All right, let's go back and look at what happened 47 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:19,799 Speaker 1: in week four. We were five and two. Last week 48 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:22,640 Speaker 1: fifteen and twenty one, so we still have work to do, 49 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 1: but a much better week than last week. The props 50 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 1: were six and three, bring us to twenty six and 51 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 1: eighteen on props. The ones that we did get we 52 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 1: got Miami minus seven, we got Fresno State. On the 53 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:37,959 Speaker 1: money line, we had Oklahoma minus six and a half. 54 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 1: Thank you for that backdoor cover. On the safety, Vandy 55 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 1: won seventy to twenty one over Georgia State, so they 56 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 1: covered the twenty seven and a half and perdue hit 57 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:48,519 Speaker 1: that team total thirteen and a half. They scored thirty points. 58 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 1: The ones we missed I got hooked on Missouri and 59 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 1: South Carolina. That one the kicker missed an extra point 60 00:02:57,040 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: on the first touchdown just aggravating, and then on the 61 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 1: over it was twenty three to twenty one was the final. 62 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:08,920 Speaker 1: Our total was forty seven and a half. Hawaii had 63 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:11,639 Speaker 1: a chance to make a two point conversion going to overtime. 64 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 1: That might have messed with our friendsno state money line, 65 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:18,080 Speaker 1: of course, but we would have got the over either way. 66 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 1: But it did not happen. We had two conditionals. The 67 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 1: conditions didn't make it on either one of them. I 68 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 1: wanted too Laney to get out over fourteen and they 69 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 1: actually shrunk. It was thirteen and a half when we 70 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 1: talked on Friday the morning of, it was eleven and 71 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:34,239 Speaker 1: a half. And then Antonio Williams played in that Clemson game. 72 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 1: Those would have split. This would have been six and 73 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 1: three if we didn't put conditions on him on the props. 74 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 1: Like I said, six and three. So twenty six and eighteen. 75 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 1: Our touchdown calls, got a bunch of them here, and 76 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 1: we hit I believe four or five. Haines King, Cedric Alexander, 77 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 1: Jonah Coleman, Jordan Tyson all scored. Taylor Green did not 78 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: in that Memphis game and Memphis beat Arkansas, which was surprising. 79 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 1: And then on the yardage props or the actual props. 80 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 1: Carson Beck over one and a half a passing touchdowns, 81 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 1: he didn't have any against Florida. There Jeremy Love or 82 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 1: Jeremy I Love, excuse me over one hundred and a 83 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 1: half rushing yards. He had one hundred and fifty seven, 84 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 1: so we got that. Didn't get Emmanuel Henderson. He had 85 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 1: forty three and a half receiving yards. Believe thirty six 86 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:17,480 Speaker 1: was before the half, and then he didn't catch one 87 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 1: in the second half. And then Bret Norfleet over eighteen 88 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards for South Carolina. He had 89 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 1: thirty five and he hit this one. This one ballooned 90 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 1: up to like twenty four and a half yards in 91 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 1: a day, but he got a twenty five yard catch 92 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 1: his first catch. So he hit my prop and any 93 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 1: other prop that you would have seen right before then. 94 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 1: So that was a decent week. We'll take it much 95 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:44,360 Speaker 1: better than the week before, which was probably my worst 96 00:04:44,720 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 1: week picking games. But let's get into week five. You've 97 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 1: heard some of these already on the show, some of 98 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 1: them have been in my article, but I have nine 99 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:56,279 Speaker 1: for you. We're gonna start out with two Rutgers plus 100 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: five and a half at Minnesota and the over fifty 101 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: one and a half here. We just saw Rutgers put 102 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:05,280 Speaker 1: up twenty points against Iowa, right, and they have been 103 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 1: running downhill offensively. They can't stop anything on defense. And 104 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:12,839 Speaker 1: Minnesota does get Darius Taylor their best running back back 105 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 1: this week, presumably, I believe he's probable. So I think 106 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:18,160 Speaker 1: Minnesota is gonna be able to score. But I don't 107 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 1: know that anybody, including Iowa, is going to be able 108 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:24,160 Speaker 1: to slow down Rutgers. And Minnesota's defense is not They 109 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 1: don't have what Iowa has. So I know this is 110 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 1: a road game, it's a tough one, but we're getting 111 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 1: five and a half. I think this is closer to 112 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:33,160 Speaker 1: a field goal game, and I think this is going 113 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 1: to be a lot of points back and forth. So 114 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:37,920 Speaker 1: over fifty one and a half in that one, USC 115 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 1: at Illinois over sixty and a half. And my explanation 116 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 1: for this one on the show this week, and this 117 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:46,839 Speaker 1: is one of my favorite bets, is that Illinois. I 118 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 1: think they got blueprinted a little bit against Indiana, right. 119 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:52,920 Speaker 1: I think USC can see that and see where they 120 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: can take advantage of Illinois a little bit. But even 121 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 1: if not I mean USC on their own merits. Their 122 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:04,839 Speaker 1: offense is outstanding, and Illinois, the strength of their defense 123 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 1: has been in the secondary. Xavi or Scott is out 124 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 1: for the season. They lost I believe three other corners 125 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 1: and safeties in the secondary. These guys are banged up. 126 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 1: They're not definitely ruled out. I think one of them 127 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:20,480 Speaker 1: will miss. I think the other two are gonna play, 128 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 1: but they're all less than one hundred percent. And obviously 129 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,560 Speaker 1: USC throws the ball out. So I think USC is 130 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: going to score a lot of points. You know, I 131 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:29,360 Speaker 1: don't want to I don't want to pick the side 132 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 1: on this one. I like Illinois to bounce back, but 133 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 1: I do think there's gonna be a lot of points scored. 134 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 1: I think USC is going to force Illinois's hand. And 135 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 1: USC has left the back door open two weeks in 136 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:40,280 Speaker 1: a row, and they didn't cover against the spread because 137 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:44,160 Speaker 1: they got back doors. So I think that late Illinois 138 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 1: can score here, specifically if USC is up. But I 139 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 1: think USC is gonna do the heavy lifting on our 140 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 1: total here. We're gonna go Auburn at Texas A and 141 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 1: m over fifty two and a half in this game, 142 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 1: and look this one to me, is all because Texas 143 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:00,599 Speaker 1: A and M has not been slowing anybody down. They've 144 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 1: given up a bunch of points this season, capped a 145 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago against Notre Dame where they gave 146 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:07,359 Speaker 1: up forty right they were on the road. It's a 147 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 1: tough team and everything, but this defense is not the 148 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 1: same as it was last year, specifically against the run. 149 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: So I think Auburn's going to be able to run 150 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 1: the ball. I think Jackson Arnold's going to have a 151 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 1: much better day in this game. Marcel Reid should have 152 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 1: a decent game as well. I think this is a 153 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 1: nice back and forth game, and we hit the over 154 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 1: in this one. We're going to go Indiana minus seven 155 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 1: and a half at Iowa, and I know Seth and 156 00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: I are on the Indiana side, our boy Sorella is 157 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 1: on the Iowa side. Because Iowa traditionally does not lose 158 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 1: games like this at home, and they definitely don't lose 159 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 1: by a touchdown at home in the Kirk Farrens Era. 160 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 1: I understand that, and I just don't believe that this 161 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 1: is the same Iowa team that we've seen traditionally, And 162 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 1: I don't believe that this is anywhere close to the 163 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 1: same Indiana team that we have seen, and Coachetti has 164 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 1: talked a lot about being disrespected at Indiana, and I 165 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:09,280 Speaker 1: think that his motivation in these gigantic wins that they 166 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 1: have when they're putting up seventy and sixty and fifty 167 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 1: points is to make a statement. I think what he 168 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 1: wants at Indiana is for Indiana to be taking at 169 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:23,720 Speaker 1: the same level of Michigan, Penn State, Oregon, Ohio State. 170 00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 1: That's what he wants. I don't know if they'll ever 171 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 1: get there at Indiana right but it's his goal. So 172 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 1: I think every week you have a chance to make 173 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 1: a statement. Iowa as a team that doesn't lose at home, 174 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:38,880 Speaker 1: they don't get blown out at home either. I think 175 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 1: that's the goal for Indiana. I think once you get 176 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:43,280 Speaker 1: the lead, now you keep your foot on the gas. 177 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:46,839 Speaker 1: And they've covered every other time except when I took them. 178 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:50,640 Speaker 1: So maybe I'm the cooler on Indiana, But I know 179 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 1: this is a tough game, but Indiana seems really really 180 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:56,079 Speaker 1: efficient right now, and it's just hard to go against 181 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:58,360 Speaker 1: coach sig where you are going to take an under 182 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 1: here lsu at Ole fifty six and a half is 183 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 1: a total in this one, and Lane Kiffin has talked 184 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:06,760 Speaker 1: about it right. He said that this is the best 185 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 1: defense that LSU's ever had since I've been at ole Miss. 186 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:12,319 Speaker 1: So this LSU defense is legit. They have a lot 187 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:16,439 Speaker 1: of star power ole Miss. The only under that they 188 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 1: I think they played to this year was the one 189 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 1: against Kentucky where you know they played an SEC level 190 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: defense and ole Miss can put up points, but they 191 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 1: are on Shambals's. The backup quarterback Austin Simmons is active. 192 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 1: I wonder if there's anything weird there right, Like if 193 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 1: Shambalass doesn't start, right, does Simmons come in or is 194 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:37,199 Speaker 1: Simmons starting? And then are we mixing? I just think 195 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:39,679 Speaker 1: it's gonna be a little bit weird. We've seen ole 196 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 1: Miss play down at home as well. They did it 197 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 1: to Kentucky last year. This is good LSU team that 198 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:47,360 Speaker 1: hasn't been really moving the ball as efficiently as we'd hoped. 199 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,439 Speaker 1: So I like the under in this game. I think 200 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 1: this one's a little bit tighter. UCLA plus six and 201 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 1: a half at Northwestern. Look, this is just a trends play, 202 00:09:57,400 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 1: which I typically don't have, right, I'm not a big 203 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 1: trend guy, But fifty six percent of teams that fired 204 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:07,839 Speaker 1: their coach the next game they beat the spread and 205 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 1: you're getting You're getting points on the road against the 206 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 1: Northwestern team. That's not very good, right, They're probably better 207 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 1: than what we've seen from UCLA this season. So I 208 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 1: don't want to sit here and shade them specifically because 209 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 1: they're at home. But I think you see the proverbial 210 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 1: dead cat bounce that a lot of these teams when 211 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 1: the coaches fired, they get on their horse and they 212 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:34,320 Speaker 1: go and they play much better because that's what they wanted. 213 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 1: So I think we'll see a better effort out of UCLA. 214 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 1: It's either that or they going to lose by like 215 00:10:39,800 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 1: thirty to Northwestern. So I think we get them to 216 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,720 Speaker 1: play better. This roster is better the Northwestern, not by 217 00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:50,520 Speaker 1: a ton, but enough to make this game a field 218 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 1: goal game, not a touchdown game. So I think UCLA 219 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 1: can stay with them here. We're going to take points 220 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:57,760 Speaker 1: for Mississippi State plus eight and a half. First, Tennessee. 221 00:10:57,760 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: You heard me talk earlier this week if you listen 222 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 1: to the Wednesday show. I kind of like Mississippi State 223 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 1: on a money line sprinkle as well. I think that's 224 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 1: probably a little too bold for a show like this, 225 00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:11,040 Speaker 1: but I'll sprinkle a little bit myself, so if you 226 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:12,960 Speaker 1: want to get in there as well. The thing that 227 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:15,680 Speaker 1: Mississippi State does that I think matches up well with 228 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:18,320 Speaker 1: Tennessee well. Number one, they have home field advantage in 229 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 1: this game, and we saw in the ASU game when 230 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 1: the people show up in Mississippi State, that crowd is 231 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 1: loud and obnoxious and intimidating. So I think you're going 232 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:29,360 Speaker 1: to see people a Mississippi State show up for Tennessee right. 233 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 1: This is a huge game for them, and what they 234 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:35,320 Speaker 1: really do better than Georgia, which is the reason why 235 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 1: Tennessee lost to Georgia, is because they couldn't stop these 236 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:41,679 Speaker 1: big plays. And Missisippi State has done a pretty good 237 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 1: job in the secondary of containing big plays. They don't 238 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:46,720 Speaker 1: have a worst strength to schedule, but they did a 239 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 1: very good job against ASU. I think they could at 240 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 1: least rein in Tennessee a little bit here and make 241 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 1: this a more uncomfortable game than a lot of people expect. 242 00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 1: I also think that they can win this game straight 243 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 1: out with a couple weird bounces. I don't think it's 244 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:04,560 Speaker 1: like a guarantee. I think it's something like a twenty 245 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 1: to thirty percent chance that they win this game, but 246 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 1: I'll take a risk on it. I just like the 247 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:14,960 Speaker 1: way that they're built against Tennessee and then Alabama at Georgia. 248 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:17,199 Speaker 1: We're going over fifty two and a half in this one. 249 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:21,200 Speaker 1: We remember what it was last year and look canned up. 250 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:23,840 Speaker 1: I was dead wrong when I thought I the under 251 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 1: was going to hit in that Georgia Tennessee game. They 252 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:29,079 Speaker 1: had a thousand yards of offense and over eighty point 253 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:32,079 Speaker 1: score right, And I think what we really saw were 254 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 1: two things in that game. Number One, Georgia was not 255 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 1: getting any pressure. They have three sacks this year. They 256 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 1: are one hundred and twenty six out of one hundred 257 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 1: and thirty six teams in pass rush grade according to PFF, 258 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:48,679 Speaker 1: so this has not been an intimidating pass rush at all. 259 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 1: Alabama is the same thing. They get Tim Keenan back, 260 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 1: so maybe it's a little bit better for them, but 261 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 1: it has not been effective this year. They've been getting pressure, 262 00:12:57,559 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 1: but it's been in over three seconds, and if we 263 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:02,199 Speaker 1: cut that down to under three seconds. I heard this 264 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: stat on a PFF earlier this week. They have as 265 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:12,559 Speaker 1: many pressures as UCLA, who just fired their head coach. Right, 266 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 1: So Bama has not been doing a good job at 267 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:19,160 Speaker 1: putting pressure on the quarterback. Neither has Georgia. And if 268 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:22,960 Speaker 1: you give even mediocre quarterbacks time to throw to the 269 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:26,839 Speaker 1: weapons that Alabama and Georgia recruit, this game is going 270 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 1: to be a nice fun shootout. I think that's what 271 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 1: we're going to get. So we're going to go over 272 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:34,559 Speaker 1: the fifty two and a half in that Bama and 273 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 1: Georgia game. All right, Before we go to the props, 274 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:40,320 Speaker 1: let me remind you guys to check out the discord 275 00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 1: if you're looking to up your game in sports betting Joint, 276 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:45,920 Speaker 1: our exclusive sports betting discord community at bettingpros dot com 277 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:49,200 Speaker 1: slash chat. Not only can you connect with expert handicappers 278 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 1: who provide free picks for the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL 279 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 1: player props, live betting, and much more, but now you 280 00:13:55,320 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 1: can also participate in our weekly community picks, cast your vote, 281 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 1: see how your picks stack up against the experts, and 282 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 1: track your success. And also, while you are checking things out, 283 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 1: check out the Betting Pros app track your bets, stay 284 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:11,079 Speaker 1: accountable and level up by downloading the Betting Pros app 285 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 1: with Sportsbooks Sync, Automatically track your bets across all major 286 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 1: sports books in one spot. Easily monitor your best performance 287 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 1: by sport and bet type, including game picks, props, and parlays. 288 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 1: Create custom betting systems to find winning trends and profitable opportunities. 289 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 1: Get a seven day free trial of Betting Pros Premium 290 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 1: by using code Juice and activating your trial on the 291 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 1: upgrade screen. All right, let's get into the props. Only 292 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 1: three touchdown calls for you this week. Just wasn't feeling 293 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 1: very confident on a lot of them, and a lot 294 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 1: of them are bad odds. Some of these are bad odds, 295 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 1: but I just put them all together. I put my 296 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 1: or I mix them. If I have more than three, 297 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 1: typically I mix these three, I'll play together. So we're 298 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 1: gonna start with Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King at Wake Forest. 299 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 1: We're gonna just take this one into the wheels fall off. Right. 300 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 1: He's scoring tons of touchdown I think you know, it's 301 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 1: like minus one sixty or something or one seventy, So 302 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 1: it's it's not good odds, but he's gonna get it 303 00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 1: against Wake Forest. Vanderbilt running backs Cedar calex Andrey has 304 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 1: seven touchdowns for four games. They're playing Utah State. He's 305 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 1: gonna score unless he gets hurt, right. I think that's 306 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 1: that's the thing with this. This one is a little 307 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 1: more maybe shaky. But USC running back Wayman Jordan and 308 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:26,160 Speaker 1: Illinois three touchdowns and four games, fifteen carries in the 309 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:28,360 Speaker 1: last three games. I think he gets in the end zone. 310 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 1: And like I said, I think this is an over 311 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 1: in that USC Illinois game. So just get him down 312 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:35,120 Speaker 1: inside the five and I think it's gonna go to 313 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 1: Wayman Jordan. So getting to the yardage props here, quarterback, 314 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 1: I'm gonna take an under and I'm gonna stick with 315 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:44,240 Speaker 1: the game that I told you about before the LSU 316 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 1: and ole Miss game. The total for Garrett Nesmeier is 317 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 1: two hundred and ninety and a half passing yards at 318 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:52,560 Speaker 1: ol Miss. I just don't think he's gonna get there. 319 00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:55,359 Speaker 1: And I think the problems that we've seen is specifically 320 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:58,760 Speaker 1: in this game. I think that LSU is gonna be 321 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 1: a little bit one dimensional, and they've had problems along 322 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 1: the offensive line as well, losing some starters, right, So 323 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:06,720 Speaker 1: I think that that is going to be an issue 324 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: for Garrett Neusmeyer and Cain Durham being questionable for this game. 325 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 1: They're running back their best running back. I think kind 326 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 1: of makes them a little more one dimensional as well. 327 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 1: So I think I don't think he's going to hit 328 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 1: this total. I'm not very good at unders. I like 329 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 1: to be more positive on these and takeovers, but I 330 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 1: think we're going to take the under on that one. 331 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 1: Rutgers quarterback Athan kliak Manus over two hundred forty five 332 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 1: and a half passing yards at Minnesota. Again, caliak Manus 333 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 1: has been completely unstoppable this season. I think he's going 334 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:41,000 Speaker 1: to be able to pass against Minnesota. I think Iowa's 335 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 1: defense is better than Minnesota's than he was able to 336 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 1: pass against Iowa, So I think he's going to be 337 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 1: able to get it done, even in a road start 338 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:51,160 Speaker 1: at Minnesota. Another road game. Baylor running back Bryson Washington 339 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 1: over one hundred and seven and a half rushing yards 340 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 1: at Okay State. Seventy percent of Baylor's RB carries are 341 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 1: going to Bryson Washington and in this game, look Oklahoma State. 342 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 1: I know I just said the dead cap bounce and 343 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:09,560 Speaker 1: all of the statistics about a team firing their coach 344 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,320 Speaker 1: and the team playing better. Maybe that happens for Oklahoma 345 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:16,400 Speaker 1: State in this game. It definitely could, right, But they 346 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:19,200 Speaker 1: fired him midweek. This isn't like they fired him in 347 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:21,119 Speaker 1: the bye week like de Sean Foster and then they 348 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:23,920 Speaker 1: get two weeks to prep and change things. They fired 349 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:27,240 Speaker 1: him midweek. They told him, you can say that you're 350 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:28,719 Speaker 1: going to retire at the end of the season. We'll 351 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:30,160 Speaker 1: let you finish the rest of the season. He said, 352 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:31,639 Speaker 1: I'm not doing that and they said, okay, well then 353 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:36,120 Speaker 1: you're fired. So weird week. I think Baylor runs all 354 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 1: over Oklahoma State, and I don't think it takes very 355 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 1: long for Bryce and Washington to get this, even though 356 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:44,600 Speaker 1: it is a big total. Three wide receiver receiving totals 357 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:46,760 Speaker 1: here for you, Ohio state wide receiver Carneal Tate over 358 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 1: fifty nine and a half receiving yards at Washington. I 359 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 1: like both receivers here. I think they're going to be 360 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 1: able to get some stuff done. And jeremih Smith is 361 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,200 Speaker 1: like ninety and a half. His hodal is just very high, 362 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 1: that's all. He's had some drops this year. His receptions 363 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:03,879 Speaker 1: was six and a half as well. Cornel takes a 364 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 1: down the field guy. If he gets three catches, I 365 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:07,760 Speaker 1: think he's probably gonna have one big one in there 366 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 1: for thirty plus yards something like that. I think he's 367 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 1: going to get a lot of that in one or 368 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 1: two catches. So I think if he gets the four catches, 369 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:18,360 Speaker 1: I think he sails past this. So I think four 370 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:20,639 Speaker 1: catches is very doable, even against a tough team in 371 00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,440 Speaker 1: Washington on the road. We're gonna go with Cal wide 372 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 1: receiver Jacob DeJesus over four and a half receptions at BC. 373 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 1: He leads all Cal targets by nine. Weird across the 374 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:36,480 Speaker 1: country game here. You know, this is the acc Cal 375 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:39,200 Speaker 1: going to Boston to play a game. It's a little 376 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 1: bit weird here, but you just designed up a bunch 377 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:44,960 Speaker 1: of plays for Jacob de Hayesus. He's a little kick returner, 378 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 1: shifty guy. So you know, I think the I want 379 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,199 Speaker 1: to do the receptions in case he doesn't break a 380 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 1: big one, right, But I think four and a half 381 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:55,640 Speaker 1: is something he can sail over. And then Alabama wide 382 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,240 Speaker 1: receiver Jeremy Bernard over fifty seven and a half receiving 383 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 1: yards at Georgia like I said, I think think this 384 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:01,919 Speaker 1: game is going to be a little bit back and forth. 385 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 1: I think Heym and Ryan Williams are both very good 386 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:05,960 Speaker 1: targets for this team, and I think that's going to 387 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:09,720 Speaker 1: be a high scoring affair. So that is everything for me. 388 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 1: So just to review, going to run through the picks 389 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,160 Speaker 1: and props one more time. We're going Rutgers plus five 390 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 1: and a half at Minnesota plus over fifty one and 391 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:19,920 Speaker 1: a half. We're going to USC at Illinois over sixty 392 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:22,160 Speaker 1: and a half, Auburn and Texas A and M over 393 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:24,200 Speaker 1: fifty two and a half. We're laying seven and a 394 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 1: half for Indiana on the road against Iowa. We're taking 395 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,399 Speaker 1: the under in LSU at Ole, miss fifty six and 396 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 1: a half. Ucla is plus six and a half at Northwestern. 397 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: We're hoping for the dead cap bounce Michigan or excuse me, 398 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 1: Mississippi State plus eight and a half at home against 399 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:44,240 Speaker 1: Tennessee as home dogs and then Alabama. Georgia over fifty 400 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 1: two and a half is the picks, the props, three touchdowns. 401 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:52,440 Speaker 1: Haines King, Cedric Alexander Wayman, Jordan That is the quarterback 402 00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 1: for Georgia Tech. The running back for Vandy and a 403 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:58,680 Speaker 1: running back for USC. Our quarterbacks are Garrett Nsmeyer under 404 00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:02,880 Speaker 1: two ninety and a half, Ethan Kelliakbanis over two hundred 405 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,040 Speaker 1: and forty five and a half, Bryson Washington and running 406 00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:06,520 Speaker 1: back for Baylor over one hundred and seven and a 407 00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,680 Speaker 1: half at Okay State, and then overs on Carnel Tate 408 00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:12,040 Speaker 1: fifty nine and a half, Jacob to Haes who's four 409 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:14,680 Speaker 1: and a half receptions, and Jeremy Bernard fifty seven and 410 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 1: a half receiving yards. So that is everything for me. 411 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 1: Good luck everybody, and I will see you next week. 412 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:21,920 Speaker 1: Take it easy. 413 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,800 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 414 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:27,240 Speaker 3: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 415 00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:30,639 Speaker 3: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 416 00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 3: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 417 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 3: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 418 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 3: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros