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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're up for running a game so

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Speaker 1: smoothe so sweet, slipid sisting, just glorious execution. Guys, all

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Speaker 1: I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four thousand percent

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Speaker 1: of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop with fine bit, buddy, And

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Speaker 2: that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picture them. Shut up. I'm trying again the love

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Speaker 1: it's left to of the wide eyed drill fiffus, How

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Speaker 1: old Earth.

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Speaker 2: Big that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to Wondergold, the soccer betting podcast presented

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Speaker 1: by the Action Network. I am your host today BJ

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Speaker 1: Cunningham Michael leab office off for an episode, but I

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Speaker 1: am joined by my co host and friend Anthony Debundo

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Speaker 1: to break down the final round of World Cup qualifiers

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Speaker 1: across the world. We have two playoff matches in Europe,

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Speaker 1: we have a whole host of Conca calf in South

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Speaker 1: America and Asian matches, and then we have second legs

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Speaker 1: of the African World Cup qualifying. But first we're going

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Speaker 1: to start in Europe, where we have an unlikely playoff,

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Speaker 1: the one that we were not expecting. Portugal survives against

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Speaker 1: Turkey three to one. They get to play North Macedonia,

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Speaker 1: who upset Italy as thirteen to one underdogs in the

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Speaker 1: ninety fourth minutes on a goal from outside the box

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Speaker 1: to win one nothing. Portugal is a minus five hundred

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Speaker 1: favor this They are playing this one at home. North

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Speaker 1: Macedonia is fourteen to one and the draw is six

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Speaker 1: to one, which is pretty much the exact same line

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Speaker 1: that we saw against Italy. Anthony, I'll let you first

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Speaker 1: say your last goodbye to this Italian team and your

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Speaker 1: thoughts on this match.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, as somebody who has followed us since

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Speaker 2: the Euros, if you have followed us, you know that

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Speaker 2: I am a proud Italian if you can tell that

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Speaker 2: by my name as well. It was a devastating moment.

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Speaker 2: It was really a classic example of why soccer is

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Speaker 2: such a beautiful sport and also a cruel sport. Because

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Speaker 2: Italy was not the best team at the Euros, but

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Speaker 2: some variance goes your way. You win a couple of

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Speaker 2: penalty shootouts and you win the Euros and it's this

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Speaker 2: triumphant moment and then you have a miss penalty against Switzerland,

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Speaker 2: you have a couple of unfortunate draws with Northern Ireland

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Speaker 2: and Bulgaria, and then you end up in this playoff

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Speaker 2: and expected goals, we could talk about that. One point

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Speaker 2: nine two point one for Italy and they were the

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Speaker 2: better team obviously, but that's soccer, right. They don't take

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Speaker 2: their chances, and then North Macedonia has a moment that's

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Speaker 2: pretty incredible for their country and historic victy. Devastating for

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Speaker 2: Italy not to go back to the World Cup after

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Speaker 2: they missed in twenty eighteen. They have not won a

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Speaker 2: knockout match at the World Cup since two thousand and six.

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Speaker 2: So devastating for the Italians, but and devastating for me

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Speaker 2: too in the sense that we get robbed of what

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Speaker 2: was going to be a great, great matchup here. I

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Speaker 2: was looking forward to betting Italy in this match. I

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Speaker 2: thought we'd get a good plus a half number. We're

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Speaker 2: not going to obviously get that, now do I go

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Speaker 2: back to the well North Macedonia team total over It

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Speaker 2: was one of my luckier wins of the year, but

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Speaker 2: I'm not I thought about it. They only had five

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Speaker 2: shots against Italy. I think Portugal is weaker defensively, so

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Speaker 2: in some sense there probably is value in the plus

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Speaker 2: one forty and going back to it, because that was

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Speaker 2: the same number we had in the game against Italy

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Speaker 2: plus one to forty five, but five shots off from

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Speaker 2: outside the box point one expected goals. It was a miracle.

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Speaker 2: Miracles can happen twice. Portugal, like I said, a little

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Speaker 2: bit more vulnerable at the back. I talked last week

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Speaker 2: about their issues defensively and why I was backing Turkey

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Speaker 2: plus one and a half and that should have won.

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Speaker 2: But overall, this is just a pass for me. If

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Speaker 2: I had to bet it again, I would go back

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Speaker 2: to the well on North Macedonia team total over a half,

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Speaker 2: because I do think Portugal's defense remains pretty overrated. But

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Speaker 2: there was just no resistance in the North Macedonian defensive

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Speaker 2: midfield of keeping the ball out of their penalty area.

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Speaker 2: And Portugal has better attackers than Italy does in terms

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Speaker 2: of just raw talent. So if you take away Portugal's

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Speaker 2: ball progression issue, you just let them walk into the area.

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Speaker 2: Guys like Rinaldo and h'lta, they should have no problem

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Speaker 2: rolling here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean well here at first, I have a

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Speaker 1: question for you before I give my thoughts. Do you

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Speaker 1: do you trade the euro title for two World Cup qualifications?

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Speaker 2: One hundred percent euro title. I would take that over

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Speaker 2: qualifying and not winning the World Cup, which is probably

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Speaker 2: what would have happened Probaly would have made it out

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Speaker 2: of the group and lost. But yeah, twenty twenty one

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Speaker 2: was worth it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean listen, we uh yeah, and you know

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Speaker 1: for US United States fans as well, we trade a

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Speaker 1: Gold Cup to qualify for the World Cup. Obviously the

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Speaker 1: Euros are way bigger than the gold Cup, but same

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Speaker 1: kind of snarrow. I mean, listen the box score from

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Speaker 1: the North Macedonia only one. It's quite hilarious. Thirty two shots,

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Speaker 1: sixteen of them blocked by North Macedonia. That's crazy. It's

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Speaker 1: just a team that you knew was going to park

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Speaker 1: the bus. They did it and it worked. So that's

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Speaker 1: exactly what they're going to do here against Portugal because

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Speaker 1: they can't play an open game with them. And what's

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Speaker 1: even crazier is that North Macedonia's best player, Elfielmas, who

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Speaker 1: plays for Napoli, he's hurt. He didn't play for them

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Speaker 1: in this match. So again with the line being exactly

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Speaker 1: how it was against Italy and the fact that both

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Speaker 1: of us were pretty much off everything except for you

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Speaker 1: being on North Macedonia team total over. This is absolutely

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Speaker 1: a pass for me. I have this pretty much dead

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Speaker 1: on with what it is. I have port minus five

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Speaker 1: oh seven in the total around three, so the over

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Speaker 1: under two and a half is at minus one forty

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Speaker 1: right now on the over, so just to pass. And

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Speaker 1: I was very close to playing Italy live. I was

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Speaker 1: trying to wait to get at least some type of

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Speaker 1: decent number on them. I would try to do the

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Speaker 1: same here with Portugal, but I don't really think it's

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Speaker 1: going to happen because what you see in kind of

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Speaker 1: the live market is they're still pricing in the fact

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Speaker 1: that Italy is completely dominating the match. I mean zero

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Speaker 1: zero at half, Italy was still minus three to ten

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Speaker 1: on the live money line, so there's just no value

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Speaker 1: in betting that for forty five minutes because anything had

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Speaker 1: happened like we saw, So we both will ultimately just

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Speaker 1: be passing on this one. I mean, Portugal shit cruiz,

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Speaker 1: you know, like Italy should have done. But the way

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Speaker 1: more interesting match the other playoff, Poland is hosting Sweden,

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Speaker 1: who is coming off a one hundred and twenty minute

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Speaker 1: extra time win over the Czech Republic. Poland got a

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Speaker 1: buy due to the suspension of the Russian national team Poland.

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Speaker 1: This game is being played in Poland. Poland is plus

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Speaker 1: one fifty, Sweden is plus two to fifteen. The draws

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Speaker 1: at plus two ten. Poland is minus one forty advance,

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Speaker 1: with Sweden sitting at plus one twenty to advance. Anthony,

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Speaker 1: who do you have for this clash of two teams

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Speaker 1: that are actually quite very similar in terms of their

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Speaker 1: talent level.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a rematch of what was probably one of

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Speaker 2: the best matches of the entire euro Tournament. They played

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Speaker 2: a three to two thriller where Sweden went up to nil,

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Speaker 2: they blew the lead, and then in stoppage times Sweden

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Speaker 2: got the winning goal on the counter to win the group.

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Speaker 2: Against Spain. They actually had the best results of anybody

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Speaker 2: in that group with seven points credit to Swedes. They

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Speaker 2: had a great euros and I like this team a

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Speaker 2: lot more than I like Poland. When you look at it,

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Speaker 2: Sweden is a bad favorite because they don't do a

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Speaker 2: ton in possession. They kind of just sit in a

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Speaker 2: four to four to two. They're very safe. They defend

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Speaker 2: in a low block when they don't have the ball,

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Speaker 2: and then they kind of just let their very good

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Speaker 2: attacking players kind of run wild and try to make

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Speaker 2: something happen. That's a classic international team. You'll see that

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Speaker 2: a lot, and I think it works when you're an

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Speaker 2: underdog in this situation on the road. Sweden's defense still

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Speaker 2: relatively solid numbers across the board. They did concede about

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Speaker 2: one point two expected goals to the Czech Republic without

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Speaker 2: Patrick Schick, which is a little bit concerning, but Sweden

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Speaker 2: controlled large portions of that match. They were the better

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Speaker 2: side over the course of it. They had considerably more

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Speaker 2: shots in the first ninety ish and then ultimately found

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Speaker 2: a late winner. I think this really is a true

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Speaker 2: toss up. I think Sweden's slightly better team Poland home field. Therefore,

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Speaker 2: I'm taking the dog at plus one twenty two advance.

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Speaker 2: I think if we get to penalties, I like, you know,

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Speaker 2: I think this is really just a true toss up match.

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Speaker 2: And when we talk about Poland, they didn't impress me

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Speaker 2: too much in the Euros. I know they ended up

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Speaker 2: coming up a little short, but again, you know, they

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Speaker 2: played a pretty weak group. They were competitive with Spain

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Speaker 2: for some parts of it, but again a lot of

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Speaker 2: that came down to Spain really not taking any chances.

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Speaker 2: And then you look at their performance against Slovakia, incredibly underwhelming.

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Speaker 2: So I don't really love this polling team. I think

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Speaker 2: a lot of times what happens with them is they

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Speaker 2: don't really have good midfield ball progressors. They get stuck

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Speaker 2: trying to go through Lewandowski, which they have to do,

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Speaker 2: but they can't really give him good service and so

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Speaker 2: he ends up having to create everything himself. And even

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Speaker 2: if you go back to that Sweden game, that's exactly

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Speaker 2: what happened. There was two weird counter moments where there

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Speaker 2: was space for Lewandowski to operate and he was able

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Speaker 2: to kind of work some magic and score and create

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Speaker 2: grit goals. I don't think Sweden's going to be as naive.

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Speaker 2: I think they'll sit deep, and I think they're more

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Speaker 2: dangerous on the counter than they are playing with the ball. Anyway,

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Speaker 2: So I like Sweden. I think, to toss up, I'm

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Speaker 2: going to take the plus one twenty.

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Speaker 1: I'm actually in disagree with you. I really like Paul

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Speaker 1: in minus one forty two advance, especially being at home

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Speaker 1: in the fact that Sweden is coming off one hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty minutes against the Czech Republic. Do you go

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Speaker 1: back to that game. I understand that Sweden went up

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Speaker 1: to nothing, and you know, game state obviously matters, but

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Speaker 1: Pauland ended up pointing the expected goals battle one point

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Speaker 1: five to one, held sixty seven percent possession, twenty nine

198
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Speaker 1: chop crateing actions only twelve for Sweden, forty one progressive

199
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Speaker 1: passes just nineteen for Sweden, so pretty resounding dominant performance.

200
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Speaker 1: But again, game state does matter. If Sweden wasn't up

201
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Speaker 1: to nothing, I don't think you would see those type

202
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Speaker 1: of numbers. But overall, for the group stage, I mean

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Speaker 1: Sweden they won the group with a negative expected gold

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Speaker 1: differential and Poland finished in dead last with a petter

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Speaker 1: expect gold differential than Sweden. So the Swedish performance really

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Speaker 1: against the Czech Republic did not impress me at all,

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Speaker 1: especially the fact that they didn't have Chic or sou

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Speaker 1: fall for the Czech public didn't. So, I mean, after

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Speaker 1: nine minutes the expected goals bat I was only point

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Speaker 1: nine two point six and there were a couple of

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Speaker 1: chances that the Zech Republic had that they could have

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Speaker 1: really put away to take that one away. And Poland,

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Speaker 1: you know, they were in a I would call it

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Speaker 1: a very interesting group throughout World Up qualification. They were

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Speaker 1: in a group of England, Albania and Hungary who are

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Speaker 1: too you know, not horrific teams, but at least somewhat decent.

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Speaker 1: And then they had two of the worst teams in Europe,

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Speaker 1: Andorra and San Marino. So their numbers get a little

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Speaker 1: bit inflated, you know, plus seventeen actual goal differentially around

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Speaker 1: a plus eight expected gold. The French League could say

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Speaker 1: they overperformed, but when you play teams like Andorra and

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Speaker 1: San Marino, you're likely not going to create seven expected

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Speaker 1: goals and win seven nothing. It's just not the reality

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Speaker 1: of how things work with those type of teams. But Poland,

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Speaker 1: the fact that they were able to play a friendly

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Speaker 1: against Scotland at least get you know, the legs moving

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Speaker 1: a little bit, play together as a team. The fact

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Speaker 1: that they were actually be able to rest Robert Lewandowski

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Speaker 1: for this match I think is for them great. Sitting

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Speaker 1: here at home, I have them projected at minus one

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Speaker 1: oh five in the regular ninety minutes, So I like

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Speaker 1: them minus one forty two advance because, like you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: Sweden's gonna sit back in a four to four to two.

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Speaker 1: They're going to allow Poland to control the possession, just

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Speaker 1: like they did in that match in the Euros. So

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Speaker 1: I'm actually on Poland to advance at minus one forty

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to conk Calf. We are

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Speaker 1: recording this right after a resounding, resounding five to one

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Speaker 1: win by the Americans over Panama. Congratulations to Canada for

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Speaker 1: beating Jamaica and qualifying for the World Cup for the

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Speaker 1: first time. It's nineteen eighty six. The Mexican national team,

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Speaker 1: congratulations to you as well. Got a late winner against

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Speaker 1: Honduras to get them tied on points with the United States.

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Speaker 1: So as it sits right now, Canada has officially qualified.

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Speaker 1: They're sitting with twenty eight points. The United States is

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Speaker 1: in second with twenty five points in a plus thirteen

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Speaker 1: goal differential. Mexico is one spot below them, still twenty

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Speaker 1: five points with a plus seven goal differential, and Costa

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Speaker 1: Rica is in the fourth spot, which is a playoff

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Speaker 1: spot that will play the winner of the Oceania region.

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Speaker 1: Most likely New Zealand. They sit with twenty two points

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Speaker 1: and a plus three gold differential. So essentially for the

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Speaker 1: United States to qualify for the World Cup, they just

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Speaker 1: need to not lose six nothing in Costa Rica, which

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Speaker 1: I believe is not going to happen or even come close,

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Speaker 1: because I think the US is actually going to win

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Speaker 1: if they actually take this match. Seriously, I talked about

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Speaker 1: it on the last show. With Costa Rica, they are

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Speaker 1: one of the they're driving me crazy, like they're one

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Speaker 1: of the luckiest teams in the world right now. They

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Speaker 1: obviously beat El Salvador two to one to secure that

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Speaker 1: at least secure that fourth spot. They did win the

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Speaker 1: expected goals battle, but they conceded a goal for the

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Speaker 1: first time in five matches. So now in the last

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Speaker 1: five matches they've conceded one goal off of six point

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Speaker 1: five expected goals. Like that's insane, like the over I mean, obviously,

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Speaker 1: they're a team that sits back into four to four

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Speaker 1: to two when they play teams like the United States,

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Speaker 1: Mexico and Canada. But if you watch that match against Canada,

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Speaker 1: Canada got a red card in the thirty fourth minute

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Speaker 1: and they still won the expected goals better like one

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Speaker 1: point five to one point one. Costa Rica just scored

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Speaker 1: ahead or off of a set piece, but Canada hit

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Speaker 1: the bar twice. It's this team drives me crazy because

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Speaker 1: they have very little talent except for Kayler Nabas in goal.

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Speaker 1: And if they actually qualify for the World Cup, they're

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Speaker 1: going to be a team that not only go to

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Speaker 1: betting against every single match, but when you do prop

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Speaker 1: bets like who's gonna like score the least amount of goals?

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna put Costa Rica in that as long as

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Speaker 1: it's not too pricey. But or them not to qualify,

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Speaker 1: depending on whatever group they're in. This team just drives

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Speaker 1: me crazy if they keep costing me money. They did

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Speaker 1: it against Panama, they did it against Canada, they did

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Speaker 1: it today against El Salvador. But I really think if

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Speaker 1: the US decides to actually play a decent lineup, they

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Speaker 1: should be able to dominate Costa Rica like they did

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Speaker 1: the last time they played them. What do you think?

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Speaker 1: What chance do you give the Americans of staving off

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Speaker 1: a six nil defeat in Costa Rica?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll be playing some Costa Rica alt line and

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Speaker 2: I'm kidding. We don't have a market for this, yet

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Speaker 2: we're recording this on Sunday night.

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Speaker 1: We do not have lines.

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Speaker 2: Of course, we don't know who's going to play for

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Speaker 2: the US. But I think you're going to hear this

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Speaker 2: over and over again. And this gets into the club

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Speaker 2: season that we're getting towards the end of here now,

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Speaker 2: and this goes into the international season. These teams don't

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Speaker 2: need to qualify, or they've already qualified, or they're already eliminated.

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Speaker 2: Look at Hondoras, right, and this is a classic example.

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Speaker 2: Hondora's has been horrible, the the worst team in cocka

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Speaker 2: CAF based on the table. They play, Panama, who desperately

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Speaker 2: needs the win, gets overinflated Honduras gets a one to

305
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Speaker 2: one draw. Then today Mexico desperately needs to win, laying

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Speaker 2: two goals against Honduras on the road, doesn't come close

307
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Speaker 2: to scoring two goals, only gets one. They win one. Note,

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Speaker 2: but they don't cover and you're gonna see this a

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Speaker 2: lot here. I think too. We don't have a market. Again,

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Speaker 2: I don't even know what the line is going to be.

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Speaker 2: I'm interested to see what it is. I'll be leaning

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Speaker 2: towards the US as well. I know the history, the

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Speaker 2: US has never ever won in San Jose, who work

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Speaker 2: up qualifying seven trips, zero wins. They've had some embarrassing

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Speaker 2: defeats in eighteen it was the famous four nail defeat

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Speaker 2: that got Clint's been fired. And they lost there in

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Speaker 2: twenty fourteen as well when they did qualify for the

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Speaker 2: World Cup. So they've had their problems there and that's

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Speaker 2: noted and Costa Rica. Part of the reason for the

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Speaker 2: over performance is Navas, who's great in goal. But I

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00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:49,400
Speaker 2: mean at some point they're going to regress defensively quite

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Speaker 2: a bit. And these players the US are going to

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Speaker 2: be playing, let's not pretend they're just scrubs. I mean,

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Speaker 2: these are guys who are trying to get on the roster.

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Speaker 2: So even if POOLI Stick and Raina and and Weya

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Speaker 2: aren't playing, we're gonna see guys like Roldan or Ariola,

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Speaker 2: guys who are trying to get Jordan Morris, guys who

328
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Speaker 2: are trying to get into this team shock more, even

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Speaker 2: who are gonna give a good effort. De la Torre

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Speaker 2: I think we'll see, and he was great in the

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Speaker 2: win tonight. I'm absolutely excited, as you can tell my

332
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Speaker 2: voice by the win, and I think it was probably

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Speaker 2: the best performance the US has had. It with the

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Speaker 2: second half against Mexico in the first Africans Panama the

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Speaker 2: two best performances I've seen the US have probably since

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Speaker 2: twenty fourteen. But anyway, these guys are playing for spots,

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00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:34,400
Speaker 2: they're playing for minutes, and I think you're gonna see

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Speaker 2: an inspired effort. And so everybody's gonna make jokes, Oh

339
00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:40,040
Speaker 2: they should forfeit, lose three now intentionally, Oh the US

340
00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:42,480
Speaker 2: could lose by six, all these jokes. I don't care.

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Speaker 2: I'll be looking to back the US hopefully Costa Rica's.

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Speaker 1: Like odds on, Oh that'll be great.

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Speaker 2: They won't be. But like you know, even if they're favored,

344
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Speaker 2: if you.

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Speaker 1: See like minus one ten or better, Like I'll be honest,

346
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Speaker 1: I have the US projected like minus two forty on

347
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Speaker 1: the road. Like that's how crazy the Coasta Reque overperformance

348
00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:00,000
Speaker 1: has been. So I'm my guess.

349
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Speaker 2: I still think the US is overdue to concede a

350
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Speaker 2: little bit. And we saw it tonight, even like Panama

351
00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:07,119
Speaker 2: did get did get a goal late, but there were

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Speaker 2: chances before that that you could argue Panama I really

353
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Speaker 2: could have gotten one or two. But yeah, this US team,

354
00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:15,200
Speaker 2: there's not a huge gap between their best players and

355
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Speaker 2: their mediocre players, especially once you get past Poolistick Raina

356
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:22,720
Speaker 2: McKenny Adams. Then it's just kind of like a lot

357
00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:26,000
Speaker 2: of upper tier MLS guys and they're all in that

358
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Speaker 2: mix to compete for these spots. So I do think

359
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Speaker 2: you're gonna get a good effort from the US. I

360
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:31,520
Speaker 2: don't think they're just going to roll over and quit

361
00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:35,600
Speaker 2: and just roll over and plus Costa Rica, you know,

362
00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:37,720
Speaker 2: we keep talking about like, oh, Costa Rica win by six,

363
00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:40,399
Speaker 2: they're locked into the playoff, Like what's you know? They

364
00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,520
Speaker 2: obviously could win by six or could win by four

365
00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:45,879
Speaker 2: and take Mexico's spot. But in all likelihood, this is

366
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Speaker 2: probably going to be a very dead game. It's probably

367
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:50,359
Speaker 2: not going to be a ton in it, and I

368
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Speaker 2: think the US will probably be undervalued.

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Speaker 1: The other thing I want to mention is that I

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Speaker 1: agree with you that yes, some of these players who

371
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Speaker 1: are getting into the squad, who are wanting to prove

372
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Speaker 1: themselves so that I can actually make the squad then

373
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Speaker 1: goes to guitar for the World Cup. But think about

374
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Speaker 1: it this way, and this isn't just apply to the US.

375
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Speaker 1: This applies to all these other teams who have already

376
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Speaker 1: qualified for the World Cup, and you can say all

377
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Speaker 1: these matches don't matter. So I'm talking like Brazil, Argentina,

378
00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,000
Speaker 1: like South Korea, like Iran. You know, these teams who

379
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Speaker 1: have already qualified these this is the last competitive match

380
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Speaker 1: that they're probably gonna have before the World Cup. Like

381
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Speaker 1: this is really important for them to work out the

382
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Speaker 1: kinks and really just try to hone their squad and

383
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Speaker 1: hone what their tactics are going to be. I understand

384
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Speaker 1: when you play better teams, it's going to be a

385
00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:32,040
Speaker 1: little bit different, but this is basically it. I mean,

386
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:34,359
Speaker 1: these teams, we talked about it a lot, but they

387
00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:36,760
Speaker 1: don't get many training sessions together before they go out

388
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:38,600
Speaker 1: and play these World Cup qualifiers because they're with their

389
00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:42,000
Speaker 1: club teams pretty much year round, so they will have

390
00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:43,520
Speaker 1: some time during the summer, but none of it's going

391
00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:45,199
Speaker 1: to be competitive. Now they have a finally have a

392
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Speaker 1: match where they get a team who's actually going to

393
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Speaker 1: try against them. This is really important for them. So

394
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Speaker 1: I agree with you that I'm interested to the line

395
00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:54,199
Speaker 1: is because Canada was plus one forty on the road

396
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Speaker 1: against Costa Rica. My guess is that they'll probably obviously,

397
00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,879
Speaker 1: you know, in US markets, the US gets taed over sometimes,

398
00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:03,959
Speaker 1: So could we see the US at plus one twenty,

399
00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:06,040
Speaker 1: at plus one ten, even if it's somewhere in there,

400
00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,639
Speaker 1: I think I'll yeah, I might be a little bit

401
00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:11,719
Speaker 1: more than that, but we'll see, because they obviously discount

402
00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:14,200
Speaker 1: a lot of these teams who have already basically already

403
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:16,040
Speaker 1: qualified for a Cup. I know the US actually has

404
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:20,000
Speaker 1: technically qualified, but yeah, it's it's gonna be hard for

405
00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:21,400
Speaker 1: me to stay away from the US on this and

406
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:25,119
Speaker 1: just try in the Costa Rican luckbox. Now, I'll tell

407
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:28,120
Speaker 1: you this much Anthony. New Zealand's playing the Solomon Islands,

408
00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:31,639
Speaker 1: I believe on Wednesday to secure their spot in the

409
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:34,960
Speaker 1: playoff in June, and guitar. If it's against Costa Rica,

410
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,000
Speaker 1: which is most likely it will, I will be betting

411
00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:40,680
Speaker 1: New Zealand no matter what, depending on me, matter what,

412
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:42,880
Speaker 1: no matter what, unless they're like minus one fifty, which

413
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:46,320
Speaker 1: they're not going to be. But this team, it has

414
00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,080
Speaker 1: to end at some point like this is crazy, and

415
00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:50,439
Speaker 1: we'll get to another team that has been an absolute

416
00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:52,200
Speaker 1: luck box where it has to end. But I mean,

417
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,440
Speaker 1: this costa Rican team. I just can't. I can't get

418
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:56,520
Speaker 1: over because there's been so many matches where they've just

419
00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:00,159
Speaker 1: parked the bus and it's worked, you know, and we

420
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 1: got to I mean, the same thing happened North Macedonia.

421
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,920
Speaker 1: But when it happens over and over and over again,

422
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Speaker 1: it starts to drive you a little bit in sane.

423
00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:09,760
Speaker 1: As you can hear my voice, I'm starting to go

424
00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 1: a little bit sane with this team. So that'll be that.

425
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 1: On the US well, obviously that's the only match that

426
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:18,480
Speaker 1: really needs anything other than you know, the Mexico match

427
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,560
Speaker 1: against El Salvador, which they should cruise by.

428
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:23,640
Speaker 2: I don't hate it. I mean we again, we don't

429
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:27,040
Speaker 2: have a line yet. Mexico's off. I mean, another dead

430
00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:30,600
Speaker 2: performance today against Honduras. Ro Jimenez looks like he's aged

431
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,359
Speaker 2: three years in the last year. They're not creating the

432
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 2: chances that I'd expected to create. They had a draw

433
00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 2: Panama that was very bizarre or mean, they had a

434
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:43,200
Speaker 2: late win against Panama on a lucky penalty that really

435
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 2: didn't deserve to win. They had a very lackluster show,

436
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:49,639
Speaker 2: and when they went to Canada they got embarrassed by

437
00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,639
Speaker 2: the US in America. They were very flat against the

438
00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:54,960
Speaker 2: US at home and then they play you know, a

439
00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 2: dead Hondoora's team and barely beat them. So if we

440
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,840
Speaker 2: can get like two and a half on El Salvador,

441
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:02,800
Speaker 2: I'll be looking. I'll be looking to fire maybe in

442
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:06,640
Speaker 2: Mexico team total under because again they don't really care either.

443
00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 2: I mean, they're kind of just cruising here to qualification.

444
00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 2: So that's a look for me maybe, But we'll see

445
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:14,480
Speaker 2: what the number is once we get a market on it.

446
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:18,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, that'll be interesting as well. It'll always be interesting

447
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 1: to see what group. Obviously, for those who don't know,

448
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 1: the World Cup draws this Friday, April first, so we'll see.

449
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,520
Speaker 1: It'll be interesting to see what group the US is

450
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 1: put against and everything, but we'll move on. There are

451
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 1: other World Cup qualifications going on around the world, especially

452
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 1: and probably most interestingly, outside of Europe. In Africa, the

453
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,879
Speaker 1: second leg of the African World Cup Playoffs as it

454
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 1: currently stands, the Democratic Republic of Congo drew Morocco in

455
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:50,200
Speaker 1: the Democratic Republica at the Congo Cameroon lost one nothing

456
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:54,200
Speaker 1: at home to Algeria. Malli lost one nothing at home

457
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:58,520
Speaker 1: to Tunisia Egypt one one nothing at home over Senegal,

458
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 1: and Ghana drew Nigeria zero zero at home. So that

459
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 1: is how it stands going into the second leg of

460
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:10,360
Speaker 1: all of these matches. The winner of the two legs

461
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,960
Speaker 1: goes to the World Cup. So Anthony, I believe we

462
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 1: are both on the same game here. What do you

463
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:19,640
Speaker 1: have for us in Africa?

464
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:21,679
Speaker 2: Yeah? I had them in the first leg. I know

465
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:23,119
Speaker 2: you did as well. We took them drawn a bet

466
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 2: plus one zero five ish against Egypt. It's the return fixture.

467
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,919
Speaker 2: Now Egypt scored an own goal in the fourth minute.

468
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 2: They then were outplayed for large toretches of the match.

469
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 2: It was one point five XG to one point two

470
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 2: for Senegal. I was on the road and we now

471
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,639
Speaker 2: have the data of two games these two teams have

472
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 2: played against each other, and in the last three months

473
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:50,360
Speaker 2: between the AFCAN final which was neutral and then in Egypt,

474
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:52,880
Speaker 2: Senegal was the better team in both games. They were

475
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 2: considerably better on the neutral, they were marginally better on

476
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,399
Speaker 2: the road. Now they're only minus one ten at home.

477
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 2: It's a hammer spot. I think Senegal roles again like

478
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 2: Egypt's defense continues to just never concede anything, and you

479
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:07,439
Speaker 2: can go more into that. I just don't understand how

480
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 2: they keep getting away with it. And look, this gets

481
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:13,640
Speaker 2: into a bigger point about international variants. There are there

482
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 2: are so few games, there are so few goals in

483
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 2: these games. I mean so many of these Africa totals

484
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 2: are one and a half with you know, like minus

485
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:24,679
Speaker 2: one ten one and a half each way. So you

486
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 2: have to understand that one game state is more important

487
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:30,560
Speaker 2: in international than it is in club one hundred percent

488
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,199
Speaker 2: because of these games are there's so few games that

489
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 2: each game means more, that each goal means more, and

490
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:39,400
Speaker 2: they tend to change a lot how teams play. And

491
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 2: you know, BJ and I had a good Euros. There's

492
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 2: a lot of variants that goes into those Euros as well.

493
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,199
Speaker 2: You know, who scores early, who scores late, all that

494
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 2: kind of stuff too. So when you have these international

495
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 2: teams who don't play together that much, who come together

496
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,640
Speaker 2: for these brief tournaments or these brief qualifying periods over

497
00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 2: two weeks, you have to expect just absurd variants. And

498
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 2: I think, really this, you know, you've got one to

499
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 2: identified certain bet on and bet against teams, and Egypt

500
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 2: is the top I know BJ hates Costa Rica.

501
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:10,160
Speaker 1: I hate Egypt to me even more.

502
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 2: They're at the top of my bet against list.

503
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,359
Speaker 1: Oh I hate end two and so.

504
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:21,119
Speaker 2: No disrespect to the Egyptians, no disrespect luckbox. And so

505
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 2: Senegal has a lot of midfield advantages here. They have

506
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,920
Speaker 2: an overall talent advantage considerable one and they're at home.

507
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 2: I think they're the best team arguably on the continent,

508
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:32,360
Speaker 2: and so mine's one ten at home when they need

509
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,160
Speaker 2: to win is where I'm gone.

510
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 1: Listen, I know Game of the years are hot on

511
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 1: the streets these days, Like this is game of the

512
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 1: year right here, this is line in the sand, this

513
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 1: is everything because for those who don't know, I know

514
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:44,679
Speaker 1: Anthony knows this, but like I have, I have a

515
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,359
Speaker 1: five hundred to one ticket on Senegal to win the

516
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 1: World Cup, and I don't want this bet to die

517
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 1: right now. I wanted to die in the fall because

518
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 1: I know it's going to die, I know, but not

519
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:54,640
Speaker 1: winning the right.

520
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:57,400
Speaker 2: No, they're only probably what forty percent to advance here, Yeah,

521
00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 2: make it.

522
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:01,400
Speaker 1: I know. And that's what's driving me crazy because Egypt,

523
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 1: like you said, as the luckiest team in the world

524
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 1: since the since the afchon started, they have around a

525
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 1: minus two point four expected goal of the frontal. They

526
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 1: went to extra time three times in the afghan to

527
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 1: a lookout stage and they finally got knocked out by

528
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 1: Senegal and penalties on penalties on penalties. The Egypt defense

529
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 1: is so overdue to concede it's it's not even funny anymore.

530
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,160
Speaker 1: It's just starting to get insane. Since the start of AFCAN,

531
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 1: Egypt has allowed two goals off of nine expected goals.

532
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:37,400
Speaker 1: Like that's insane, and obviously there's variants in these international things,

533
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:41,360
Speaker 1: but that type of variance is a little insane. Additionally,

534
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 1: their offense, even though they have one of the best

535
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 1: attacking players in the world, Mosala, they've created over one

536
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 1: expected goal. One time since the start of Afcon was

537
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 1: against Sudan, they only created one point two expected goals.

538
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 1: There's just nothing to really get excited about this team.

539
00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 1: It's just a team that just sits back and just

540
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 1: gets lucky because they don't press very well. They were

541
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 1: sixteenth in the tournament in pass per defensive actually twelve

542
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 1: point two, which is really not that good. In Senegal,

543
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 1: they are the best team in Africa. I mean, they

544
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:11,919
Speaker 1: showed that they went in one af Con, they had

545
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:14,200
Speaker 1: a plus seven expected goal devential in eight matches, their

546
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:16,960
Speaker 1: defense only conceining around point five expected goals for match.

547
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,360
Speaker 1: They have the best center back in Africa in Kubali.

548
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 1: They have the best goalkeeper in Africa and Edward Mendi.

549
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 1: And they have probably the best attacking player outside of

550
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,880
Speaker 1: Mosala in Saudi Amani. Like this team is incredibly talented.

551
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 1: They have solid midfielders who for whatever reason just can't

552
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 1: control the ball and can't press Egypt effectively to get

553
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,679
Speaker 1: the ball up to Saudiomane. But this is just a

554
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:40,680
Speaker 1: line in the sand game. I mean this. First of all,

555
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,880
Speaker 1: take Senegal at minus one ten in regular time instead

556
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 1: of their two advanced line to take away that variance

557
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 1: and extra time because Senegal is going to have to

558
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:50,640
Speaker 1: win in regular time to actually send this extra time.

559
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:55,959
Speaker 1: So I have them projected at minus two fifty against Egypt.

560
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 1: I mean Egypt. I do for those who don't know,

561
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 1: or haven't seen it, or maybe hasn't seen it, I

562
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:04,400
Speaker 1: have World soccer rankings on the Action network dot com

563
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 1: that you can go read and you can go look at.

564
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 2: Denmark is too low on those rankings by the way

565
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 2: they should be number one.

566
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 1: They're eleventh. They actually are just surpassed the United States,

567
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 1: I believe. Anyway, Egypt, when I did this, I went

568
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 1: through and I basically went through every single expected goals

569
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 1: results for pretty much every single team in the world,

570
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 1: and Egypt through World Cup qualifying, AFCON, AFCON qualifying, they

571
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:32,400
Speaker 1: have a minus three point three expected gold of French.

572
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:36,159
Speaker 1: They're playing teams like Togo and Libya and cabone in

573
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 1: these qualification type deals, like it is not murderer's row

574
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 1: that they are facing, and they consistently just get these

575
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 1: results that they don't deserve. I mean, it's insane. It's

576
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 1: got to end at some point. So this is game

577
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 1: of the year, lie in the sand, hammer time, I

578
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 1: don't care what you call it, Like this is it

579
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 1: Senegal has to go through if there's any sort of

580
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 1: justification world or any type of justice like this is

581
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:08,440
Speaker 1: getting crazy at this point. So Senegal minus one ten. Obviously,

582
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:12,119
Speaker 1: gamble responsibly, don't bet above your means, but this is

583
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 1: hammer time. This is this is absolutely hammer time. So

584
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 1: Senegal minus one ten. Also, I'll just say Nigeria plus

585
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 1: one ten also to move on. Let's move on. To

586
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 1: South America. There's a couple interesting scenarios in South America. Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador,

587
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,640
Speaker 1: and Uruguay have already automatically qualified for the World Cup.

588
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 1: But the fifth and final spot, which is a playoff

589
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 1: who faces the winner of the third place playoff in Asia,

590
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 1: which we'll get to in a second. Peru is sitting

591
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 1: with twenty one points and a minus five gold differential,

592
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: Colombia is sitting with twenty points in an even gold differential,

593
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 1: and Chile is sitting with nineteen points and a minus

594
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 1: five gold differential. So there's a bunch of scenarios that

595
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 1: can happen here. Obviously, Peru is playing Paraguay, Chile is

596
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 1: playing Uruguay, and Colombia is playing on the road against Venezuela. Anthony,

597
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 1: what do you have in South America?

598
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 2: And I'm going back to my Paraguay boys. You know,

599
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 2: we talked about this last week. Paraguay was a team

600
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 2: who was expected to be in the middle of the

601
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 2: pack for the qualification. You go back to the Copa

602
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 2: America from last summer. They were a solid team who

603
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 2: was really competitive with some of the bigger teams in

604
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 2: the group. Like they caused problems for Argentina when they

605
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 2: played them, and they were a team who ended up

606
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 2: going out on penns and be that what it may.

607
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 2: Paraguay underrated team who had a really bad qualifying cycle

608
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 2: and now is just undervalued in the market, and they

609
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 2: end up going out and thrashing Ecuador at home. Now

610
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 2: they're going on the road, and it's a classic situation.

611
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 2: I just talked about this. The team who's eliminated is

612
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 2: now very undervalued against the team who quote unquote needs

613
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 2: to win. And le Peru has a legitimate gripe here.

614
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 2: They should have had a goal against Uruguay. It was

615
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,239
Speaker 2: wrongly ruled out. I don't know what's going on with

616
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 2: the var situation there and why that wasn't overturned, but

617
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 2: pretty shoddy refereeing may end up costing them a spot.

618
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 2: But I do think they're overvalued here in this game now.

619
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 2: Minus won a full goal in a game where perum

620
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 2: Paraguay played at the Copa America, which was a neutral site,

621
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 2: and it was a pick them, And that was in

622
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 2: July and now we're in March. Not that much has

623
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 2: changed for these two teams. So I'm taking the plus

624
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 2: one on Paraguay. It's a chance to play spoiler, So

625
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 2: give me the Paraguayans plus one minus one ten.

626
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you. I think Paraguay's been undervalued

627
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 1: pretty much throughout all of qualifying. It's kind of a

628
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 1: shame they're not in the mixt heere to get that

629
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 1: fifth spot. But I'm actually going with Brazil minus one

630
00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 1: at minus one ten on the road against Bolivia. This

631
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 1: match means absolutely nothing to me either team, because Brazils

632
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 1: already qualified for the World Cup and Bolivia has been eliminated. However,

633
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 1: given the lineup that Brazil played against Chile, which featured Neymar,

634
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 1: Venicius Junior, Casan Birero Marquinos, it was pretty much an

635
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 1: a lineup that Brazil played if they play anything like that.

636
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 1: And Brazil is also one of these type of teams

637
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 1: that I put England in Spain in this type of

638
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 1: region where they just have so much talent and depth

639
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 1: that it really doesn't matter what type of lineup you

640
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 1: try to play against some of these smaller teams, they're

641
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 1: just going to smash them. I highly doubt that Brazil,

642
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 1: even if they decide to rest neymar and Venezia Junior,

643
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 1: that they're not gonna be able to be effective with.

644
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 1: They're definitely be able to effective with guys like Charlson

645
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 1: and Gabrielle Martinelli or whoever Antony, whoever they decide to

646
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 1: put out there. Bolivia is by far and away the

647
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 1: worst team in South America over World Cup qualifying. In

648
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 1: Copa America, they have a minus one point three to

649
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 1: three expected goal differential per match, They're conceding two point

650
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 1: four to six expected goals per match, and their offense

651
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 1: is only are one point one expected goals for match,

652
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 1: which is dead last in South America. And even their

653
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 1: last match against Columbia they had two shots and point

654
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 1: zero five expected goals. So what do you think the

655
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 1: best team in South America is going to do to them?

656
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:16,560
Speaker 1: These two met once. It was the very first World

657
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:20,680
Speaker 1: Cup qualification match. Brazil completely blew out Bolivia five nothing.

658
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 1: Shots were nineteen to three, sixty five percent possessions. So

659
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 1: even though this match means absolutely nothing, like we always

660
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, Brazil is one of these teams that has

661
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 1: so much depth that they're secondary players. There's really not much.

662
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 1: I mean, there's obviously a drop off from Neymar to Charlesson,

663
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 1: but these guys are also still you know, playing at

664
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 1: some of the top clubs in the world and they

665
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 1: want to make the team. You know, guys like Gabrielle

666
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: Martinelli got their first call call up. Gabrielle defender for

667
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 1: Rashenmo He got his first call up to the national team.

668
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 1: These guys are fighting for a spot to actually go

669
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 1: to Qatar to play for their country. So I think

670
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 1: you're going to get a really really good effort from

671
00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:00,240
Speaker 1: the Brazilians here and they're just gonna smash the worst

672
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 1: team in South America. So I think you're going to

673
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 1: really discounted price on them at a minus one ten

674
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 1: on the road.

675
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 2: EJ calling Everton one of the best clubs in the world.

676
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 2: Michael would be proud to hear that well. Also, Arsenal

677
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 2: one of the best clubs in the world.

678
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 1: Absolutely, thank you, ye, thank you, yes, I mean very

679
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 1: well deserved that all these Arsenal players are getting called

680
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 1: up to their national teams. Very well deserved, thank you, Anthony.

681
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 1: All Right, I'll finish this off here in Asia. So

682
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 1: there's really only one thing in Asia in terms of

683
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 1: a still up in the year. It's the third place

684
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 1: spot in Group A between Iraq and United Arab Emirates.

685
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 1: Iraq beat the United Arab Emirates to come within one

686
00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 1: point of them, so essentially, whoever finishes with a higher

687
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 1: point total. Basically Iraq needs to win and they need

688
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 1: the United Arab Emirates to drop points. Is essentially the

689
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 1: scenario that we are in. Iraq is playing Syria and

690
00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 1: the United Arab Emirates is playing South Korea at home.

691
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 1: I actually like South Korea getting a nice discounted price

692
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 1: here at minus one ten. Obviously, South Korea has nothing

693
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 1: to play for, They've already qualified for the World Cup,

694
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 1: but defending on the lineup if they play he On

695
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,920
Speaker 1: Minsun and he Chen Huang and I Joe Wang. I

696
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:14,239
Speaker 1: think this is a great price on South Korea. I

697
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 1: mentioned it last time. United Arab Emirates is a really

698
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 1: really overrated team. They've allowed eight goals in this third

699
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 1: round of qualifying off of thirteen point three expected Their

700
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 1: offense is averaging under one expected goal per match. South

701
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:32,840
Speaker 1: Korea actually a very impressive team and one team that

702
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 1: when we get to the World Cup I'll be very

703
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:36,760
Speaker 1: itched to see what group they're in, and a potential

704
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 1: team to advance to the next round plus ten expected

705
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 1: goal differential in nine matches, averaging one point seventy five

706
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 1: expected goals for match. When these two teams met the

707
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 1: first time in South Korea, South Korea won won nothing,

708
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 1: but it was a very resounding win one the expected

709
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 1: goals battle two point three to point one, held sixty

710
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:56,760
Speaker 1: four percent possession and outshot the United Arab Emirates twenty

711
00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 1: to one. So United Arab Emorts can I really just

712
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:03,240
Speaker 1: sit back and play for a point and just scoreboard

713
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 1: watch and hope that Iraq doesn't beat Syria. So I

714
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 1: think they're going to be forced to potentially play an

715
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 1: open game with South Korea, which is absolutely a nightmare

716
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 1: matchup for them and one that they will lose if

717
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 1: South Korea plays their best players. So I love the

718
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 1: South Korea at minus one ten, but it is contingent

719
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 1: on if Jon Vin Son, He Chen Wang, and I

720
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 1: Joe Wang all play. So let's move on to our

721
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 1: best bets of the World Cup qualification. Anthony, what is

722
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 1: your best bet for this round of World Cup qualifiers?

723
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 2: I just said it. I like Paraguay plus one on

724
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:41,359
Speaker 2: the road at Peru. These two teams just played at

725
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 2: the Copa America last summer it was a pick them

726
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 2: each way minus one ten on a neutral site. Now,

727
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 2: I understand you have to factor in home advantage, but

728
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:54,840
Speaker 2: it doesn't really get you to a full goal difference here.

729
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 2: And the reason Paraguay has been deflated. They're expected goals

730
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 2: numbers are not nearly as bad as their actual results.

731
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 2: They're at the bottom of the table in South America.

732
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:06,399
Speaker 2: They've underperformed their talent level considerably. It wasn't that long

733
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 2: ago that many were expecting this team to be in fifth, sixth, seventh,

734
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 2: competing on the final day for those World Cup places.

735
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:15,640
Speaker 2: They're a team who likes to press a little bit.

736
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 2: They play a little differently than most of South America,

737
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 2: but I think they can cause some problems for Peru here.

738
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 2: Really it just comes down to the price. Peru in

739
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 2: the classic must win spot very overpriced. So I'm going

740
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:30,279
Speaker 2: to take Paraguay plus one at minus one ten.

741
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 1: I love Senegal minus one ten at home against Egypt.

742
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:36,840
Speaker 1: I know Game of the years are hot in the

743
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 1: streets on the twitter s field these days. You want

744
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:41,839
Speaker 1: to call it line and sand a hammer time, whatever

745
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 1: you want to call it. This is an all in

746
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 1: desperation spot not only for Senegal but for me as well,

747
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 1: because this Egypt team is the luckiest team in the world.

748
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 1: Since the start of the africump Nations which started in January,

749
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 1: they have allowed two goals off of eight point nine

750
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 1: expected goals. I understand there's a lot of variance in

751
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 1: international soccer, but that is insane. They have a minus

752
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 1: two point four expected goal differential since the start of

753
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:10,799
Speaker 1: the Africa couple of Nations. This Senegal team is the

754
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 1: best team in Africa and they proved that during Afcon

755
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:17,439
Speaker 1: plus seven expect a goal differential in eight matches. Their

756
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,720
Speaker 1: defense is outstanding. They're only lying around point five expect

757
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:23,280
Speaker 1: goals per match. They have the best center back in

758
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:26,720
Speaker 1: Africa and Kubali. They have the best goalkeeper in Africa

759
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 1: and Edward Mendi. They have one of the best attacking

760
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 1: players outside of Masala in Saudi Almane. There is no

761
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 1: reason why Senegal should only be minus one ten at

762
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:40,160
Speaker 1: home to beat Egypt. Egypt is up one nothing on aggregate,

763
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 1: but Senegal needs to win in regular time to at

764
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,960
Speaker 1: least send us to extra time. So I have Senegal

765
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,400
Speaker 1: projected at minus two forty. So I think you're getting

766
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:51,760
Speaker 1: a ton of value on the Senate the Leiu's national

767
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 1: team to at least get this into extra time. That'll

768
00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:58,239
Speaker 1: do it for this episode of Wonder Goal. Thank you

769
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 1: all for listening. We will be bad on Thursday morning

770
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 1: with the club calendar getting back underway, breaking down the

771
00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 1: entire weekend slate. If you can, please, wherever you are

772
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 1: listening to this podcast, please leave us a five star review,

773
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 1: write whatever you like about us, even if it is negative,

774
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:18,280
Speaker 1: and please subscribe or wherever also where you get these podcasts.

775
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:20,719
Speaker 1: It really helps us out and we will see you

776
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 1: with Michael Ebof back in the host chair on Thursday morning. Cheers,