WEBVTT - Trump Administration Said to Discuss Taking Stake in Intel 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:10.520 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Bloomberg Business 0:00:10.520 --> 0:00:14.680 Weekdaily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay 0:00:14.720 --> 0:00:18.799 ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping 0:00:18.800 --> 0:00:23.760 today's complex economy. Plus global business finance and tech news 0:00:23.800 --> 0:00:27.800 as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with 0:00:27.920 --> 0:00:31.760 Carol Masser and Tim Stenebek on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:32.440 --> 0:00:34.000 We got to get back though to Intel. 0:00:34.200 --> 0:00:34.400 Yeah. 0:00:34.440 --> 0:00:38.400 Sures for Intel finished up seven point four percent today, 0:00:38.680 --> 0:00:41.879 up one point three percent in the after hours. This 0:00:42.000 --> 0:00:46.160 after Bloomberg reported exclusively that the Trump administration is said 0:00:46.159 --> 0:00:49.440 to discuss taking a steak in Intel, the US government 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:51.760 potentially taking a steak in the chip maker, which would 0:00:51.760 --> 0:00:54.880 help support the company's effort to expand domestic manufacturing. This 0:00:54.920 --> 0:00:57.360 is according to people familiar with the plan. I want 0:00:57.400 --> 0:01:00.200 to bring in Tom Giles, He's senior executive editor for 0:01:00.240 --> 0:01:04.240 Global Technology. Tom can't stop talking about this story. Also 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:07.000 in the context of what happened earlier this week with 0:01:07.240 --> 0:01:10.480 Nvidia and AMD, what's happened with MP Materials and a 0:01:10.520 --> 0:01:13.280 four hundred million dollar investment from the DoD Us steal 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:15.360 as well, it really just feels like We're in a 0:01:15.360 --> 0:01:17.680 new era when it comes to industrial policy. What does 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:19.240 it mean to you? 0:01:19.240 --> 0:01:22.399 You know, the Trump administration is doing some really unconventional 0:01:22.480 --> 0:01:27.120 things when it comes to trying to shape and influence 0:01:28.200 --> 0:01:32.720 industrial policy and US corporations. Not a ton of precedents 0:01:32.760 --> 0:01:35.600 for this, at least not in the US. We've seen 0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:40.199 it in other types of economies where the government leaves 0:01:40.240 --> 0:01:44.039 it to its role to shape industry and shape the 0:01:44.080 --> 0:01:47.920 direction of companies. That doesn't always end well. I'm a 0:01:47.920 --> 0:01:51.400 little surprised that the stock rallied as much as it did. 0:01:51.600 --> 0:01:54.360 To be totally honest with you, I think in the 0:01:54.480 --> 0:01:57.920 near term, investors are looking at hey, look this is 0:01:57.960 --> 0:01:59.840 a bit of money, and think of it maybe as 0:01:59.840 --> 0:02:03.960 a bailout for Intel. The company get its financial house 0:02:04.000 --> 0:02:07.400 in order and accelerate these plans to build a foundry 0:02:07.440 --> 0:02:10.840 in Ohio on a space All of that stuff sounds good. 0:02:11.400 --> 0:02:11.880 Go ahead. 0:02:12.160 --> 0:02:12.800 Well, I'm glad you. 0:02:12.919 --> 0:02:16.360 I'm glad you brought up the term bailout because I 0:02:16.400 --> 0:02:18.239 was talking to Carol about this. It kind of also 0:02:18.280 --> 0:02:20.320 feels reminiscent of you know, we talked about the US 0:02:20.400 --> 0:02:24.000 taking stakes and companies. It's not unprecedented. During the financial crisis. 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:26.800 We saw this happen with rescuing banks. We saw it 0:02:26.800 --> 0:02:30.720 happening with rescuing automakers. The question I have for you, 0:02:30.800 --> 0:02:33.240 and it really sticks to it doesn't always end well, 0:02:34.160 --> 0:02:37.640 is the concern about when you have investment from the 0:02:37.720 --> 0:02:41.880 US government, the government picking winners and losers. When it 0:02:41.880 --> 0:02:44.760 comes to a so called quote unquote free market. 0:02:46.240 --> 0:02:48.600 That's not a really it's not a very free market. 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:50.440 This isn't the principles. 0:02:50.919 --> 0:02:53.160 He's the quotes that I that. 0:02:53.200 --> 0:02:57.680 I studied, certainly in macro and you know, all the 0:02:58.040 --> 0:03:01.320 all the economics courses, all the finance courses that I've taken, 0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:06.280 don't really this doesn't look like the capitalism that we 0:03:06.360 --> 0:03:11.880 learned about growing up. What this is is and there's 0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:15.000 a difference between a bailout per se and a government 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:18.600 taking a financial stake. This is about an ongoing relationship. 0:03:18.639 --> 0:03:21.079 And again, in the short term, I see why the 0:03:21.120 --> 0:03:24.399 stock popped, right, it's seen as like, hey, Intel could 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:27.079 use could get help wherever, you know, wherever it can. 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:31.080 Longer term, do you really want the government? Are the 0:03:31.120 --> 0:03:36.080 government's interests aligned with those of shareholders? The government might 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:40.160 might want to shape things for its own political interests, 0:03:40.400 --> 0:03:42.960 But are those the interests the long term interests of 0:03:43.040 --> 0:03:44.520 the shareholders of the company. 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:47.680 I think that's a really good point. And I would 0:03:47.720 --> 0:03:51.080 also say, Tom, since we're talking about sort of the 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:56.160 philosophical definition of capitalism right now, that one could maybe 0:03:56.200 --> 0:03:58.720 listen to our conversation or watch our conversation and say, 0:03:58.720 --> 0:04:01.640 wait a second, we've never really lived in a free 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:08.800 market when local and federal subsidies power so much of 0:04:08.840 --> 0:04:12.320 this economy. I mean, you look at corn farming, for example, 0:04:12.400 --> 0:04:16.760 agriculture in the US. You look at subsidies that are 0:04:16.800 --> 0:04:20.080 given by states to llure businesses. We all remember what 0:04:20.120 --> 0:04:23.280 happened with Fox Con in Wisconsin for example. That should 0:04:23.279 --> 0:04:26.719 be an entirely different conversation. But any you know, you 0:04:26.880 --> 0:04:29.840 name it. There are Boeing in South Carolina for example. 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:32.640 Those sorts of things. There are different reasons that companies 0:04:32.680 --> 0:04:33.799 go places. 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:37.000 Tax breaks all over the place. Yes, you know, the 0:04:37.040 --> 0:04:40.440 city of San Francisco just down the street incentivized Twitter 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:45.920 to locate its headquarters right in central San Francisco, and 0:04:46.320 --> 0:04:48.920 they have lots of incentives. Think about the corporate tax 0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:53.560 cuts that we've seen in recent administrations. Those are all 0:04:53.680 --> 0:04:59.479 ways that the government is sort of giving financial incentives 0:04:59.520 --> 0:05:03.279 to these companies and incentivizing them to make investments in 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:05.960 a city, in a state, in a county, for example. 0:05:06.440 --> 0:05:10.000 There's a difference between that and taking a long term 0:05:10.160 --> 0:05:13.880 stake in a company. And remember the thing that I 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:17.640 you know, I'm not I'm not an authority on corn farming, 0:05:17.680 --> 0:05:20.400 but I do know Silicon Valley, and if you think 0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:23.400 about how the way things have run here, things have 0:05:23.440 --> 0:05:29.320 gone historically over decades, the precedent is Company X in 0:05:29.360 --> 0:05:33.080 this in Silicon Valley, in the tech industry says to DC, 0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:36.520 stay out of our hair, leave us alone. For the 0:05:36.520 --> 0:05:41.960 most part, will build, will create jobs, will build new 0:05:42.000 --> 0:05:44.720 and innovative technology that's going to change the way you 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:47.600 live and work and the way we do business. And 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:52.120 that has historically been the case. Government has had a 0:05:52.160 --> 0:05:56.240 relatively hands off stance towards Silicon Valley. But that is 0:05:56.360 --> 0:05:59.960 changing dramatically, and it's changing much more quickly under the 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:04.800 Trump administration then it has in recent memory as long 0:06:04.839 --> 0:06:08.480 as I can remember covering this industry. What are the 0:06:08.520 --> 0:06:11.640 long term implications? I don't think people are really thinking 0:06:11.680 --> 0:06:12.720 about that right now. 0:06:13.279 --> 0:06:15.480 It's really good kind of mind boggling. 0:06:15.720 --> 0:06:18.760 We're talking with Tom Giles, Senior executive editor for Global 0:06:18.760 --> 0:06:20.960 Tech out there on the West Coast here in our 0:06:20.960 --> 0:06:23.800 Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Ron Gould just coming back into 0:06:23.839 --> 0:06:27.360 our studio, Bloomberg News Deals reporter. He along with Josh 0:06:27.400 --> 0:06:29.960 Wingrove and Leanna Baker, breaking this story. 0:06:30.000 --> 0:06:31.680 It is our most read on. 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:34.320 The Bloomberg Tom, stay with us, Ron, I want to 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:37.920 roll you into this conversation. Remind everybody what you found out, 0:06:38.040 --> 0:06:41.359 and you know, do we have any insight or do 0:06:41.400 --> 0:06:45.120 you guys have any insight about how much the Trump administration, 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:48.720 which has been called an activist administration, would want to 0:06:48.760 --> 0:06:52.120 be involved on an ongoing basis if it made this investment. 0:06:52.720 --> 0:06:55.320 Carol, We have very few details as to the numbers. 0:06:55.360 --> 0:06:57.320 I mean, it's something we're obviously looking to find out 0:06:57.360 --> 0:06:59.479 at this point. But I think it's just worth recapping 0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:02.520 that just how novel this type of structure would be 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:05.160 or could be. I think i Am came on here 0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:07.640 earlier on and said that they're the very good perils 0:07:07.760 --> 0:07:10.400 parallels to be drawn between MP materials and the DD 0:07:10.640 --> 0:07:12.800 that deal. I think if you just break that down, 0:07:12.840 --> 0:07:14.760 what did that mean for MP materials and what could 0:07:14.800 --> 0:07:17.280 it mean for Intel. I mean, you look at that deal, 0:07:17.320 --> 0:07:21.000 it's something like you know, guaranteed purchases, loans, private financing, 0:07:21.080 --> 0:07:23.920 equity investment. I think these are all types of things 0:07:23.920 --> 0:07:26.760 that the government perhaps feels. And again this is what 0:07:26.800 --> 0:07:28.960 you would think from a sort of outside view looking 0:07:29.000 --> 0:07:32.840 in that if you give confidence capital in this sense, 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:34.520 which I think is a good way to think about 0:07:34.560 --> 0:07:37.080 what this would be for Intel shareholders. If you give 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:39.880 confidence capital to Intel as the you know, the most 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:43.520 credit worthy institution the world, coming in and saying where 0:07:43.560 --> 0:07:47.360 behind you, where we're here for the long term, that's 0:07:47.400 --> 0:07:50.240 a massive drawer, especially if you're Intel and you're looking 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:52.840 to bring in customers like Apple or Qualcomm, which by 0:07:52.840 --> 0:07:54.720 the way, has been its mission for a long long 0:07:54.800 --> 0:07:56.760 time to make its foundery solvent. 0:07:56.960 --> 0:08:00.360 Tom is that what Intel needs? Confidence capital? 0:08:00.600 --> 0:08:01.440 Is that what's. 0:08:01.200 --> 0:08:05.600 Gonna be the turnaround key for this company that's been 0:08:05.680 --> 0:08:06.800 kind of struggling for a while. 0:08:07.840 --> 0:08:10.080 It has been struggling. I mean you think about what 0:08:10.400 --> 0:08:14.720 where they're lacking, right, They have fallen behind technology technologically, 0:08:14.800 --> 0:08:18.480 particularly in an age of AI. They are they have 0:08:18.600 --> 0:08:22.840 lost market share. Lipputan, the CEO has come in and 0:08:22.920 --> 0:08:26.960 he has been cutting jobs and taking some hard steps 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:31.280 financially to shore up them from a financial perspective, but 0:08:31.400 --> 0:08:34.480 in terms of products, in terms of like making themselves attractive, 0:08:34.559 --> 0:08:38.400 making themselves the place that customers around the world want 0:08:38.440 --> 0:08:42.160 to come for their chip making needs. That's something where 0:08:42.160 --> 0:08:46.360 they've fallen desperately behind. And so if you have a foundry, 0:08:46.400 --> 0:08:48.960 I mean, on its face, the idea of building a foundry, 0:08:49.160 --> 0:08:56.000 that's that's an alternative to TSMC. Right this this Taiwan 0:08:56.160 --> 0:09:01.000 based mammoth company that that is making most of the 0:09:01.040 --> 0:09:05.160 most advanced chips in the world. If customers want an 0:09:05.200 --> 0:09:09.280 alternative to that, Ryan mentioned Apple in Nvidia, they all 0:09:09.360 --> 0:09:12.920 would like to have alternatives to TSMC. You want you 0:09:12.960 --> 0:09:15.400 don't want someone to have a monopoly, right So, there 0:09:15.440 --> 0:09:19.400 are certain things about this idea of advancing this chip 0:09:19.440 --> 0:09:23.960 making capabilities for Intel in Ohio on it it makes sense, 0:09:24.800 --> 0:09:27.439 but it's really hard for a company that's struggling financially 0:09:27.520 --> 0:09:30.000 to get that off the ground. So again getting back 0:09:30.000 --> 0:09:33.120 to that near term equation, it makes sense for them 0:09:33.160 --> 0:09:37.520 to get a capital infusion in the near term. Longer term, 0:09:37.840 --> 0:09:40.080 does it make sense for the federal government to be 0:09:40.200 --> 0:09:43.439 making decisions and to be influencing the direction of companies. 0:09:44.200 --> 0:09:47.480 In many instances, the interests of the government and the 0:09:47.520 --> 0:09:50.600 shareholders may be very much aligned, but there will come 0:09:50.640 --> 0:09:53.120 a day where the government may want to politicize things 0:09:53.160 --> 0:09:55.760 in a way that doesn't work to the longer term 0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:58.280 advantages of shareholders. That's the thing that people need to 0:09:58.320 --> 0:10:00.480 be asking hard questions about right now. 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:04.760 Yeah, exactly, Tom Giles, so appreciative, Senior executive editor for 0:10:04.760 --> 0:10:08.440 Global Technology with his view and reporting there. 0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:11.520 Also on Intel, intelstrial is still up about two point 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:12.800 eight percent here in the aftermarket. 0:10:12.920 --> 0:10:14.679 You want to keep Ryan Gould in here as part 0:10:14.679 --> 0:10:16.840 of the team that broke the news that's still moving 0:10:16.920 --> 0:10:19.520 shares of Intel higher once again more than seven percent 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:22.839 to the upside earlier in the session, up another two 0:10:22.880 --> 0:10:26.000 point nine percent as we speak, right. I want to 0:10:26.520 --> 0:10:29.040 go to you off of what Tom just said, the 0:10:29.480 --> 0:10:32.199 difficult questions that need to be asked right now, because 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:36.520 you and the team right about the President and his 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:41.120 administration are adamant about boosting domestic champions and sectors that 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:45.040 it deems critical to combating China on national security grounds. 0:10:45.080 --> 0:10:47.080 I can imagine there are a lot of companies out 0:10:47.080 --> 0:10:50.240 there with executives who are raising their hands and saying, 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:52.920 wait a second, I'm critical, where's my money? 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:53.680 Exactly? 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:55.800 I think Timmy raise a good point because if you're 0:10:56.360 --> 0:10:59.800 any other company that operates in semiconductive manufacturing or even 0:10:59.840 --> 0:11:03.720 so reconductive, you know, chip design, Hey, this isn't fair. Yeah, 0:11:03.760 --> 0:11:05.640 I mean you would be looking on and thinking what 0:11:05.840 --> 0:11:07.200 is the power play here? Yeah? 0:11:07.200 --> 0:11:09.640 I mean a MATS down twenty three percent following its 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:11.640 latest quarterly update. I'm not saying anything is related, but 0:11:11.640 --> 0:11:14.080 it's like, hey, maybe I need as six exactly. 0:11:14.320 --> 0:11:16.480 And you know, if you think back, let's just retrace 0:11:16.520 --> 0:11:19.000 those steps a little bit. Some of these challenges and 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:21.079 some of these questions are being raised a couple of 0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:23.960 months ago, quite a few months ago now, before Lipbouteen 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:26.920 became became the CEO. When Pat left, you know, there 0:11:26.960 --> 0:11:28.640 was a big search that went underway. They used a 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:31.280 head hunter. They spoke to people like Gary Dickison a 0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:33.920 mat about the job. I mean, they spoke to a 0:11:33.920 --> 0:11:36.200 ton of people about the job. There is actually only 0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:39.080 one person who really wanted that job for the challenge 0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:41.319 that is on the table right now, and there's Libu ten. 0:11:41.640 --> 0:11:44.240 Libbhuten is currently in that seat. He turned up with 0:11:44.320 --> 0:11:47.160 the White House earlier this week, cut a fairly you know, 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:50.280 confident figure walking into the White House grounds and is 0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:53.400 now on the face of this coming out with something 0:11:53.440 --> 0:11:56.840 that looks like a potentially very favorable deal, at least 0:11:56.840 --> 0:11:58.760 in the short term, I think to Tom's point earlier on, 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:01.400 at least in the short term for what you know, 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:04.079 Intel is looking to do, which is right size it's 0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:07.680 balance sheet, stems some of those losses and make sorry 0:12:07.760 --> 0:12:09.920 to use the Trump term, but you know, make Intel 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:10.480 grade again. 0:12:12.080 --> 0:12:16.640 It's kind of wild, kind of wild before we get 0:12:16.640 --> 0:12:19.120 caught up in the exuberance. That is very easy to 0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:21.160 get caught up in this environment, especially when you've got 0:12:21.200 --> 0:12:23.760 a stock that pops seven percent in the regular trade, 0:12:23.800 --> 0:12:27.240 another three percent here in the aftermarket. Early stages like 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:28.920 do you have any you guys talk to a lot 0:12:28.960 --> 0:12:30.320 of folks who reported this at it's a. 0:12:30.320 --> 0:12:32.360 Bloomberg exclusive, it's a most red story. 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:34.959 But do you have a feeling of again, I'm going 0:12:34.960 --> 0:12:39.880 to go back to kind of where this process maybe. 0:12:39.640 --> 0:12:41.720 I mean, we actually don't. I mean, that's one of 0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:44.120 the challenges is you know, finding out how big this 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:46.520 is I think, you know where on the case. I'm 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:48.480 sure many of our competitors are now in the case. 0:12:48.520 --> 0:12:50.400 But I think one of the things I point out 0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:52.880 is that the presidents said on truth Social this week 0:12:52.920 --> 0:12:55.120 that these meetings will be happening with Commerce and with 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:58.680 Treasury this week. You can probably assume that there are 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:00.560 a ton of people down in Washington and right now, 0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:02.440 both on the Intel side and the government side, who 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:04.640 are putting minds together to figure out exactly what it 0:13:04.679 --> 0:13:08.480 will require to get Intel into on a stronger footing. 0:13:09.320 --> 0:13:11.080 I think, you know, if you look at what Intel 0:13:11.080 --> 0:13:12.920 has said. It declined to comment I should notes on 0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:16.079 the deal discussions, but it's said in a statement to 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:19.400 Bloomberg that it remains deeply committed to supporting the Trump's 0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:22.680 efforts to strength in US technology and manufacturing leadership. 0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:24.600 Just quickly, we've not heard anything from the White House. 0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:27.360 Not yet. Okay, good to know you. 0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:31.800 Rock again, Ryan gold, Deal's reporter here at Bloomberg News Again. 0:13:31.880 --> 0:13:34.280 Intel shares tim up two point six percent here in 0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:36.640 the aftermarket, after about a seven percent. 0:13:36.440 --> 0:13:38.440 Gain in the regular training session. 0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:42.160 Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming 0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:43.199 up after this. 0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:51.200 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch 0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:53.960 us live weekday afternoons from two to five ees during 0:13:54.160 --> 0:13:58.120 listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, 0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:00.160 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:03.080 Right now, though, we want to stay with what we 0:14:03.200 --> 0:14:06.200 just heard from the President, an array of topics. We've 0:14:06.200 --> 0:14:08.680 got with us our own Jenny Welch, she is with us, 0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:12.120 joining us from our bureau in the nation's capital. 0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:16.520 She is Bloomberg Economics Chief geoeconomics analyst. Jenny. Good to 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:18.120 have you back with us. There was a lot from 0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:18.760 the President. 0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:22.680 I'm always curious because he certainly says things that might 0:14:22.720 --> 0:14:26.800 be Strewda's opinion or thoughts and speculation about things. What 0:14:27.040 --> 0:14:28.880 is it that from what we just heard from the 0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:31.760 President anything in terms of new messaging that is something 0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:34.480 certainly the Bloomberg audience wants to know about well. 0:14:34.360 --> 0:14:36.960 I think in particular as it relates to geopolitics and 0:14:37.040 --> 0:14:40.480 the summit taking place tomorrow between him and President putin that, 0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:43.960 what especially European partners are likely paying attention to is 0:14:43.960 --> 0:14:46.360 the fact that he just once again tried to set 0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:48.680 expectations slow for that meeting. But I think the new 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:51.480 element was indicating he might be open to having European 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:54.680 partners join some sort of subsequent summit that he hopes 0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:58.119 to be able to arrange between Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenski. 0:14:58.640 --> 0:15:00.640 I think we would say the odd of that coming 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:04.600 together or rather low, given Putin's previous opposition to meeting 0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:07.320 with Zelenski. But nevertheless, that seems to be a goal 0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:10.200 that Trump is very much keen to get across the 0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:12.520 finish line in tomorrow's conversation with Putin. 0:15:12.760 --> 0:15:16.120 Jennifer, nobody has a crystal ball here, but we're thinking 0:15:16.120 --> 0:15:20.560 about possible and probable outcomes at this meeting. How are 0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:23.200 you thinking about these? What could end up happening post 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:23.960 meeting tomorrow? 0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:27.200 We see three broad potential pathways for the meeting. As 0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:29.040 you noted, it's hard to say for sure, so we 0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:32.200 developed multiple scenarios and hope that one of them pans out. 0:15:32.400 --> 0:15:34.160 I think the first one, in what we would consider 0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:37.360 to be pretty unlikely, is that talks collapse in such 0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:41.080 a colamous way that Trump actually feels embarrassed and feels 0:15:41.120 --> 0:15:43.200 he needs to follow through on his previous threat of 0:15:43.240 --> 0:15:46.600 sanctions against Russia, which he's been lobbying since he returned 0:15:46.600 --> 0:15:49.800 to office in January, but hasn't actually taken any steps on. 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:53.800 A second potential pathway is that they do make enough 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:56.720 progress for Trump to declare victory of a sort and 0:15:57.000 --> 0:15:59.880 walk back those previous threats, which is probably his prefer 0:16:00.760 --> 0:16:03.320 but we remain rather skeptical that the two sides will 0:16:03.320 --> 0:16:05.520 be able to reach some sort of agreement that leads 0:16:05.520 --> 0:16:07.200 to lasting, sustainable peace. 0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:08.440 A key reason. 0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:10.560 Behind that is that Putin thinks times on his side 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:12.560 and that he's winning on the battlefield, and so his 0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:15.880 incentives to negotiate are pretty low, which means the third 0:16:15.920 --> 0:16:18.960 possibility that they agree to something that will actually put 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:21.760 them on the path towards a full peace deal with Ukraine, 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:24.440 we see, is still relatively low at this point in time. 0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:27.120 Is there any chance, if there is no kind of 0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:30.480 peace deal worked out in a first or even second meeting, 0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:33.200 that what ultimately happens is the US steps up its 0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:35.320 efforts and support of Ukraine. 0:16:35.640 --> 0:16:37.880 I think there's certainly that possibility out there, and that's 0:16:38.120 --> 0:16:40.880 what Zelenski and many of the European partners are hoping 0:16:40.960 --> 0:16:44.480 that certainly that Trump doesn't make any agreements with Putin 0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:48.040 without them being there, and if he doesn't agree to 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:51.200 anything with Putin that will lead them to the negotiating 0:16:51.200 --> 0:16:53.520 table as a sort of a unified force that the 0:16:53.640 --> 0:16:55.840 very least, he'll follow through on his threats to up 0:16:55.880 --> 0:16:59.240 the pressure on Russia while backing Ukraine stronger. I think 0:16:59.280 --> 0:17:01.920 my skeptics is and comes from we've been here multiple 0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:04.720 times since January and have yet to see Trump actually 0:17:04.760 --> 0:17:07.320 follow through on those threats. He certainly has a number 0:17:07.320 --> 0:17:10.320 of sanctions options at his disposal, but they all come 0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:13.399 with additional risks and costs, especially to the global oil 0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:17.600 market and to his relationships with other key countries, namely China, 0:17:17.640 --> 0:17:19.840 which is a major economic partner for Russia. 0:17:20.080 --> 0:17:22.359 It's hard not to think about tomorrow's meeting in the 0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:24.480 context of when we've seen these two leaders meet in 0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:27.720 the past, and Helsinki in the first term certainly comes 0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:30.680 to mind and everything that came along with that. Jennifer, 0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:34.200 what do we know about the relationship between these two 0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:38.040 leaders and what we could see and from a negotiating perspective, 0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:41.160 from a behavioral perspective, from the way that we could 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:44.159 see gifts too or from one another. 0:17:44.800 --> 0:17:48.520 Yeah, the relationship between these two leaders is of high interests, 0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:52.359 especially here domestically in the United States, subject to previous inquiries, 0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:54.480 and I think will continue to be subject to a 0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:58.480 lot of skepticism. They're also have extremely different negotiating styles. 0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:01.520 Putin is a former KGB and intelligence officer that really 0:18:01.560 --> 0:18:05.680 shines through and how he approaches diplomacy, focusing on control, 0:18:05.840 --> 0:18:09.800 psychological manipulation, playing the long game as part of these talks. 0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:13.720 We've seen him, for example, before play out international negotiations 0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:17.160 pretending like he's interested in peace while continuing to make 0:18:17.160 --> 0:18:20.400 games on the battlefield, most notably in Crimean in twenty 0:18:20.480 --> 0:18:23.919 fourteen and twenty fifteen with President Trump. He is a 0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:25.640 deal maker. He comes from New. 0:18:25.600 --> 0:18:26.359 York real estate. 0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:30.040 He's interested in creating some sort of win for himself, 0:18:30.520 --> 0:18:33.680 especially something that he can sell publicly. At the same time, 0:18:33.840 --> 0:18:35.960 he's someone who has shown he's willing to walk away 0:18:36.000 --> 0:18:38.159 from the table if he doesn't get what he wants. 0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:41.359 That was apparent in his first term with negotiations with 0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:43.600 North Korean leader Kim Jung un, and I think that's 0:18:43.640 --> 0:18:45.560 something he's trying to sort of put down a marker 0:18:45.600 --> 0:18:48.280 for he's willing to do tomorrow. I think the question 0:18:48.440 --> 0:18:51.000 is will putin sort of outmatch him and out maneuver 0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:53.720 him on that front and be able to provide him 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:56.760 some sort of tangible win that Trump says is this 0:18:56.840 --> 0:18:59.919 is a victory or play into Trump's at long standings 0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:01.560 skepticism of Ukraine. 0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:04.080 We are living in interesting times. A headline just crossing 0:19:04.119 --> 0:19:07.560 the bloomberg. I have a five point two mag earthquake 0:19:07.560 --> 0:19:11.680 one hundred and thirty two kilometers southwest of Nikolski, Alaska. 0:19:12.080 --> 0:19:14.840 So this is just crossing. It looks like probably from 0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:16.199 the US Geological Service. 0:19:16.240 --> 0:19:19.200 So I'm just putting it out there because it all 0:19:19.320 --> 0:19:21.960 kind of is this big whiteboard, and it all just connects, 0:19:21.960 --> 0:19:25.600 doesn't it. Hey, Jennie, One last question you mentioned about 0:19:26.480 --> 0:19:29.440 I think you know, people moving ahead, forging agreements and 0:19:29.480 --> 0:19:32.680 so on and so forth. The President was asked specifically 0:19:33.440 --> 0:19:38.120 about Latin America and China getting closer, closer and cozier. 0:19:38.160 --> 0:19:41.480 How are you looking at that, continuing to look at 0:19:41.640 --> 0:19:45.440 how things are changing when it comes to important global relationships, 0:19:45.440 --> 0:19:48.320 and is the US increasingly being left out or no? 0:19:48.640 --> 0:19:51.480 Is the President showing that he definitely has strength and 0:19:51.600 --> 0:19:53.119 still has a seat at the big table. 0:19:53.480 --> 0:19:56.720 Well, certainly, China's efforts to court Latin America and other 0:19:56.760 --> 0:19:58.840 Global South countries are long standing. 0:19:58.880 --> 0:20:00.520 I think Beijing is making a. 0:20:00.440 --> 0:20:02.600 Lot of this moment where a lot of those countries, 0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:06.040 in particular Brazil, are facing a heavy weight of US 0:20:06.200 --> 0:20:08.560 terrorists and trying to gain the most that it can 0:20:08.680 --> 0:20:11.960 from those relationships, positioning itself as sort of the rock 0:20:12.000 --> 0:20:15.479 and Trump's storm, I think from the US perspective, and 0:20:15.520 --> 0:20:18.159 really from Trump's perspective in particular, he has kind of 0:20:18.200 --> 0:20:20.879 brought back this theme of almost a Monroe doctor and 0:20:20.960 --> 0:20:24.479 approach to Latin America, where this is considered the US's 0:20:24.560 --> 0:20:27.240 traditional sphere of influence, and he's going to push back 0:20:27.560 --> 0:20:30.560 on China, especially in places like the Panama Canal that 0:20:30.560 --> 0:20:33.440 are regarded as kind of strategic took points. I think 0:20:33.480 --> 0:20:36.800 for many countries in that region, though, the question is 0:20:36.840 --> 0:20:38.960