Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Thomas Boyola, and it is time for
Speaker 1: Week five of the NFL season. So we're gonna be
Speaker 1: talking about the slate picking out our favorite games today,
Speaker 1: and to help us do that, of course, as always,
Speaker 1: the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman joins us, and today we
Speaker 1: are joined by a very special guest. Ben Brown, head
Speaker 1: of predictive Analysis at PFF, joins the show. Ben, thank
Speaker 1: you so much for coming on today. How are you doing.
Speaker 2: I'm doing well, guys. You know I enjoy you know,
Speaker 2: the Betting Pros Content podcast. I definitely appreciate you guys
Speaker 2: having me on to chat up a little sports.
Speaker 3: Betting in action for week five. So appreciate you guys
Speaker 3: having me have here.
Speaker 1: I'm excited. We're gonna have plenty of games to get
Speaker 1: to here. We're gonna have some interesting disagreements, some interesting agreements,
Speaker 1: and some good takes. But first I want to talk
Speaker 1: to you a little bit about what it is that
Speaker 1: you do. What is the day in the life of
Speaker 1: someone running predictive analysis here, especially for a group like PFF.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is uh. I would say every single day
Speaker 2: is different of course, we have you know, off season
Speaker 2: and in season I do think probably changes you know,
Speaker 2: dramatically for you guys as well. But a lot of
Speaker 2: like our research type projects tools that we're trying to build,
Speaker 2: everything else kind of happens in the off season and
Speaker 2: then we basically you know, kind of try and keep
Speaker 2: the lights on. So like every Monday morning, I'll wake up.
Speaker 2: We have like this what we call like a metrics
Speaker 2: metrics package, which essentially takes all of PFF data and
Speaker 2: kind of MUSHes it together and does a lot of
Speaker 2: our output top down models that we kind of use
Speaker 2: in a lot of our prediction based models, so things
Speaker 2: like you know PFF Green Line, NCA green Line or
Speaker 2: player Props tool. We all we train all those models
Speaker 2: on the on the latest data every single week and
Speaker 2: then kind of have you know, a prediction basis for
Speaker 2: when you know, bets and player props and all these
Speaker 2: other sorts of things kind of come in. So that's
Speaker 2: you know, in season is much more a reaction. I do,
Speaker 2: you know, write some content as well, do do podcast.
Speaker 2: Then the off season is honestly the time that I
Speaker 2: enjoy and it's when we get to kind of you know, innovate,
Speaker 2: look at new you know, product offerings and those sorts
Speaker 2: of things, see what the market is, you know, directly
Speaker 2: moving like to actually try and make and improve our
Speaker 2: processes and our predictions. So I like that we have
Speaker 2: come up with this sort of like play by play
Speaker 2: simulation that we are don't fully have one percent out
Speaker 2: there for public facing folks, but I am doing a
Speaker 2: lot of like accuracy type metrics on that through the
Speaker 2: first four weeks of the season at least, seeing like
Speaker 2: how close we are to betting market expectation, how close
Speaker 2: we are to results, and how well we're actually performing
Speaker 2: in some back testing characteristics for that particular model that
Speaker 2: we're kind of trying to bring to the public. So
Speaker 2: it's it's it's it's changing every single day. It's very
Speaker 2: fast paced. But I, you know, I enjoy it and
Speaker 2: I love it. I you know, obviously love to be,
Speaker 2: you know, involved in the sportspinning community. I do think
Speaker 2: that it's, you know, exactly where I do and want
Speaker 2: to be and belong. So yeah, it's it's it's fun,
Speaker 2: that's for sure.
Speaker 1: Now, we certainly do know that there are so many
Speaker 1: practical applications for sports betters who want to be able
Speaker 1: to use PFF data when it comes to building their
Speaker 1: own models out. And there was that whole Twitter kerfuffle
Speaker 1: a week or so ago where with the accusation I
Speaker 1: don't remember who it was, there was many, but someone
Speaker 1: talking about how agents will pay for PFF grades. Now,
Speaker 1: we're not going to talk about that because obviously its BS.
Speaker 1: What I want to talk to you about with it
Speaker 1: is the fact that teams do pay for PFF information
Speaker 1: and data. What can you tell us anything about some
Speaker 1: of the ways that NFL teams are using what you
Speaker 1: guys do and using these models in their evaluation of players.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, no, I mean I'm totally fine speaking to it.
Speaker 2: It was Jason Kelly Kelsey and the Travis Kelsey podcast.
Speaker 2: It was something to do with you know, agents, you know,
Speaker 2: paying PFF in order to kind of boost the guys
Speaker 2: guys great, and you know, it's obviously like that's just
Speaker 2: not how the process would ever work or anything like that.
Speaker 3: But we do have kind.
Speaker 2: Of separate business units now, so I am very much
Speaker 2: on the consumer side of PFF, you know, the public bacing,
Speaker 2: front facing, the website and everything else. And then we
Speaker 2: have a soccer vertical as well, where we're kind of
Speaker 2: trying to do some of these advanced stats data gathering,
Speaker 2: you know, the play by play type data for clubs,
Speaker 2: specifically in like the Premier League Premier League, but.
Speaker 3: Also the MLS.
Speaker 2: And then we have like this B to B side
Speaker 2: of PFF and they are very much focused on, you know,
Speaker 2: helping NFL teams make correct decisions and basically every facet
Speaker 2: that we can possibly think of. So we have you know,
Speaker 2: a product called Ultimate, which you know is like a
Speaker 2: kind of behind the scenes way of querying and looking
Speaker 2: up various PFF type stats. And then we also have
Speaker 2: what's called this like iq IQ component of it, which
Speaker 2: is specific to teams that does a lot of things
Speaker 2: with our PFF war metric and kind of trying to understand,
Speaker 2: you know, what is the what is the best way
Speaker 2: for teams to allocate their salary dollars correctly to what positions,
Speaker 2: what guys can kind of, you know, maybe take on
Speaker 2: similar approaches from a team building perspective. If they do
Speaker 2: lose one guy in free agency, maybe who would be
Speaker 2: somebody that can at least fill that role? What should
Speaker 2: his and what should his actual cost be? So we
Speaker 2: do have you know, I think at least some sort
Speaker 2: of contract with all thirty two NFL teams. A lot
Speaker 2: of the value I think we provide now is especially
Speaker 2: at the college football level with teams specifically they just
Speaker 2: don't you know, at the NCAA level, they just don't
Speaker 2: have I would say, in some of the ways the
Speaker 2: resources or there's just probably not enough data science type
Speaker 2: people to really build out, you know, the analytics components
Speaker 2: for every single NCAA team. So I think we get
Speaker 2: you know, a lot of those teams that maybe then
Speaker 2: don't really need to have a really strong analytics staff
Speaker 2: or multiple staff people. They can just go in use
Speaker 2: you know, the PFF ultimate information use the iqmation kind
Speaker 2: of try and look at some similarities between players for
Speaker 2: things that they you know, have available and like the
Speaker 2: transfer portal and everything else. And that is kind of
Speaker 2: you know, definitely probably I don't know if it's the
Speaker 2: bigger revenue driver for PFF, but it's definitely the spot
Speaker 2: where you know, that was kind of where we first
Speaker 2: started off as far as a focus, and it is
Speaker 2: very much the focus of you know that specific B
Speaker 2: to B side still which I have I have no
Speaker 2: real a part in whatsoever. I actually haven't really doing
Speaker 2: my entire time at PFF, but it definitely is like
Speaker 2: an interesting component of you know, the overall structure in
Speaker 2: which we work.
Speaker 4: Under Ben you mentioned earlier PFF green Line and you
Speaker 4: know we're going to talk about some of these week
Speaker 4: five games and and just a little bit. But my
Speaker 4: question is, when PFF green Line is wrong, is it
Speaker 4: your fault? Is it George to Herr, I'm trying to
Speaker 4: figure out who to blame. Kevin Cole, I'm sure could
Speaker 4: take some of the blame too, But what goes into
Speaker 4: to some of the projections that that you guys come
Speaker 4: up with four games?
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, And it is a great question.
Speaker 2: I think at this time I would unfortunately be the
Speaker 2: most responsible for every uh, every output that Greenline has,
Speaker 2: which you know it's it's I and I know you
Speaker 2: know you guys both face this as well, but it
Speaker 2: is I would say, like I bet, you know, a
Speaker 2: certain amount of dollars on every single you know, every
Speaker 2: single bet that I make throughout the week. I care
Speaker 2: so much more about like our model predictions and my
Speaker 2: front facing content to do well more so than any
Speaker 2: dollar amount that I bet on the on the actual
Speaker 2: games because like it's more so like you're I don't,
Speaker 2: I don't know what's exactly word.
Speaker 3: I'm kind of losing it. But it's like it's very
Speaker 3: much like who you are in a way, are your
Speaker 3: fix and it's it's and it's it's kind of tough
Speaker 3: to separate.
Speaker 2: But going back to the initial question, like we very
Speaker 2: much have you know, PFF focused uh play by play
Speaker 2: type grades folded in? I know, we you know this
Speaker 2: is probably another you know, sensitive area that PFF has
Speaker 2: dealt with this year, but like you know, specifically our
Speaker 2: zero to one hundred grades and how we kind of
Speaker 2: transform that play by play data to this zero to
Speaker 2: one hundred scale every single week can can occasionally be
Speaker 2: you know a little bit often like you know, the
Speaker 2: public perception or whatever. But we take certain ways of
Speaker 2: you know, trans adjusting for like context, adjusting for opponent
Speaker 2: strength and everything else, and we arrive at kind of
Speaker 2: a unique view of every single facet that an NFL
Speaker 2: team has. We fold that in. We fold in various
Speaker 2: like rest we rest considerations, some overall team strength type
Speaker 2: metrics as well, and then you know a few other
Speaker 2: factors coaching sort of situations, how well that coach has
Speaker 2: been performing previously. We do a fold in you know,
Speaker 2: some continuity aspects as far as you know, is is
Speaker 2: it a new head coach, is it a new offensive coordinator?
Speaker 2: What is the offensive line situation like? And all those things.
Speaker 2: So we kind of trying and take that all together
Speaker 2: and then you know, essentially do a prediction for how
Speaker 2: well that's going to perform against you know, the spread
Speaker 2: total and money on that, and we do you know,
Speaker 2: I'll do a little bit of regression to the market
Speaker 2: once we actually have those numbers, uh, just to kind
Speaker 2: of you know, align everything together. But that's that's our
Speaker 2: current approach from a greenline perspective, is kind of taking
Speaker 2: that you know, top down method, uh and applying a
Speaker 2: lot of the things that we think are at least
Speaker 2: valuable and are helpful and kind of like predicting where
Speaker 2: the spread should actually be. So that's that's generally the
Speaker 2: approach we haven't you know, it's been it's been okay.
Speaker 2: I think we do better at a college level for sure,
Speaker 2: but that is you know, one of the reasons why
Speaker 2: we are continuing to try to develop new products that
Speaker 2: are going to be you know, more successful at predicting
Speaker 2: just how these games are actually going to play out.
Speaker 1: Now, guys, let's head on into some of the NFL
Speaker 1: games and actually predict how some of them we're going
Speaker 1: to play out for this weekend. And before we do that,
Speaker 1: I want to remind you real quick you can head
Speaker 1: on over to bet mgm right now betmgm dot com.
Speaker 1: Sign up for an account today to make your bets
Speaker 1: and your first bet if you use the promo code
Speaker 1: Betting Pros, you'll get a thousand dollars risk free bet
Speaker 1: to get yourself started off. And Matt, if you wanted
Speaker 1: to enter the promo code Betting Pros and have a
Speaker 1: thousand dollars risk free bet, would you be using it
Speaker 1: on your first game?
Speaker 3: Here?
Speaker 1: And that is the Washington Commanders getting two and a half.
Speaker 1: Although really now our friends at betmgm have this game
Speaker 1: down to one and a half. You can still find
Speaker 1: it two and a half somewhere if you like the
Speaker 1: Commander's side of this. But the Titans on the road
Speaker 1: here laying one and a half points right now, what
Speaker 1: are you thinking in this one? Matt?
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a disgusting game. I first bet this at
Speaker 4: plus three. Shout out me. With the sweet closing line
Speaker 4: value of Titans are winning now yeah, no, I know,
Speaker 4: I know guarantee that they were winning anyway. This is
Speaker 4: this is such a disgusting bet to make, but you
Speaker 4: know I do have this, you know, just based on
Speaker 4: my numbers, I do have this at point twenty five,
Speaker 4: you know. And so for the for the Commanders to
Speaker 4: be getting two and a half, you can still get
Speaker 4: the two and a half a fan duel one and
Speaker 4: a half everywhere else, you know, for them still to
Speaker 4: be getting that, I think there's value there. And you know,
Speaker 4: if you look at some of the trends, Mike Rabel
Speaker 4: as a head coach fifteen twenty one and one against
Speaker 4: the spread as a favorite, nine and fourteen against the
Speaker 4: spread following multiple wins in a row, and the Commanders,
Speaker 4: I think they are in a generally good spot, and
Speaker 4: that home underdogs are eighty two forty seven and seven
Speaker 4: against the spread off of a three game losing streak,
Speaker 4: and the teams that happen to go one in three
Speaker 4: to open the year who are home underdogs in Week five,
Speaker 4: they are sixteen ten and one against the spread. But
Speaker 4: you know, looking at kind of the the big picture matchups,
Speaker 4: for this game, I think it comes down to the
Speaker 4: Commander's defensive line against the Titans offensive line. And even
Speaker 4: though the Commanders haven't had edge, Chase Young, who I think,
Speaker 4: you know, even with the injuries, will still end up
Speaker 4: being a very good addition to this team when he
Speaker 4: comes back. The Commander's defense is open the season. They're
Speaker 4: number nine and adjusted sack and they are top eight
Speaker 4: in every key rushing efficiency metric rush, EPA, rush success rate,
Speaker 4: rush DVOA, adjusted lineyards their top eight and all of them.
Speaker 4: And you compare that to the Titans offense, which is
Speaker 4: not even average an adjusted sack rate or any rushing
Speaker 4: efficiency metric. And in the Fantasy pros Unit power rankings,
Speaker 4: we see the Commander's defensive line as having a significant
Speaker 4: edge over the Titans offensive line. We have this defensive
Speaker 4: line at number fourteen. That feels, honestly, I think that's
Speaker 4: a little bit low, but I think that that's fine,
Speaker 4: Like that's within the range. We have the Titans offensive
Speaker 4: line at number twenty seven, you know, like they are
Speaker 4: dealing with significant injuries, and you know, for the uh,
Speaker 4: you know, I just I think for the Titans, you
Speaker 4: could have Ryan Tannehill under pressure for a lot of
Speaker 4: the game, Derrick Henry, I think you could struggle to
Speaker 4: find open running lanes just because of the inefficiency of
Speaker 4: that offensive line. So and in the preseason market, this
Speaker 4: was Commanders favored by half a point, and my actually
Speaker 4: is still pretty close to that. I don't think they
Speaker 4: should be favored, but I don't think they should be
Speaker 4: close to a field goal in terms of being an
Speaker 4: underdog here. So I do see value on this, even
Speaker 4: though like it's a disgusting bet. I freely admit that.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, that's your favorite kind of game, is
Speaker 1: the what like a disgusting kind of game, So of
Speaker 1: course this is what you're thinking. Ben. Are you with
Speaker 1: Matt or are you in some disagreement here?
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm a lot more convinced of the of
Speaker 2: Washington's side now that I listen to Matt, But I
Speaker 2: have been painfully betting Washington the past two weeks, kind
Speaker 2: of after their Week one impressive performance, and I promise
Speaker 2: myself this was at least one spot where I could
Speaker 2: knock get on Washington's side. I mean, I definitely agree
Speaker 2: with Matt. We from PFI's perspective, we have tennesseee with
Speaker 2: like the twenty ninth best pass blocking grade to start
Speaker 2: this season. Washington's like eighth overall in our pressure rate
Speaker 2: percentage per dropback, So that specific matchup is going to
Speaker 2: be kind of deciding the game, now, my, my. The
Speaker 2: other side of the coin that I kind of see
Speaker 2: is Tennessee has been really good from an EPA perspective.
Speaker 2: When they've had scripted plays kind of to start the game,
Speaker 2: They've got off to really good starting points. So I
Speaker 2: do expect them to potentially be playing from ahead here.
Speaker 2: I'm hoping for, you know, an early touchdown type situation,
Speaker 2: and if that happens, I do think they could ride
Speaker 2: Derek Henry to the point where they are going to
Speaker 2: get this victory and maybe cover the spread. But I'm
Speaker 2: with Matt, I think, you know, the plus three for
Speaker 2: Washington was definitely the correct part price. I do think
Speaker 2: moving underfield goal differential, I probably still lean at Tennessee side.
Speaker 2: I would like to see, you know, the injury situation
Speaker 2: with Washington wide receivers. I think John Dottson is probably
Speaker 2: on the wrong side of questionable right now. It sounds
Speaker 2: like Kurtis Seam is probably going to be on the
Speaker 2: right side of questionable. So I do think if you
Speaker 2: know one of them is able to go, that obviously
Speaker 2: helps a little bit. But if both those guys are out,
Speaker 2: I think it's going to be you know, it could
Speaker 2: be a pretty convincing win for Tennessee. So I'm either
Speaker 2: avoiding it or riding with Tennessee on this one. So
Speaker 2: this will be the only time I go opposite matth
Speaker 2: though I promise.
Speaker 1: You goes above three and a half, I'm with you.
Speaker 1: Then I'm not looking to lay Tennessee three and a half.
Speaker 1: But now that it's down to one and a half,
Speaker 1: and if I can continue to drop here, obviously we've
Speaker 1: already hit past that, we've already crossed the three, we're
Speaker 1: good for me. As Kelly Stewart said on the show,
Speaker 1: quoting Todd Furman a few weeks ago, you don't get
Speaker 1: rich laying points on the road. But I think I
Speaker 1: have to lay one and a half here. I mean,
Speaker 1: the massive Peabody ratings have Tennessee a full six points
Speaker 1: better than Washington here ninth versus twenty ninth in their
Speaker 1: ratings for the season. I think this is just a
Speaker 1: case of good football, bad football. And Carson Wentz and
Speaker 1: calculated risk. Taker Ron are still bad football, and I
Speaker 1: think the Titans can at least you at least have
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry, but you also just have a better team overall.
Speaker 1: I don't have much faith in the Commanders at this
Speaker 1: point in the season. One and a half is the
Speaker 1: right price for me to take the Titans here, guys.
Speaker 1: But the next game up, this one is probably my
Speaker 1: favorite game of the week. Here the Jets are taking
Speaker 1: on the Dolphins and Teddy Bridgewater filling in for Tua
Speaker 1: Tagovailoa at quarterback.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 1: The Jets, of course, coming off the win over Kenny
Speaker 1: Pickett and the Steelers last week. They go home now
Speaker 1: and I feel like this is the second time in
Speaker 1: a row that we've seen this now where the Jets
Speaker 1: get a good win, good win on the road at
Speaker 1: the last minute. Now they come home and the Dolphins
Speaker 1: with Teddy b are laying three to three and a
Speaker 1: half depending on where you look at. MGM has it
Speaker 1: at three right now, especially now that I don't have
Speaker 1: to pay the hook on it. Give me the Dolphins
Speaker 1: all the way here. I'm a Jets fan. This is
Speaker 1: a Jets disappointment spot. Always bet against two good things
Speaker 1: happening to the Jets in a row. What do you
Speaker 1: think in this one, Ben.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm definitely with you on that.
Speaker 2: I think, you know, Teddy's been a little bit of
Speaker 2: a cover machine, I would say, throughout his entire career,
Speaker 2: so I love backing him.
Speaker 3: You know, especially you know, on the road.
Speaker 2: I do think that it's not going to be as
Speaker 2: bad of a drop off from what the betting markets
Speaker 2: currently projected going from to Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. I
Speaker 2: think a lot of the early season success that Tua
Speaker 2: saw was kind of because you know, Mike McDaniel was
Speaker 2: definitely pushing a lot of the right buttons.
Speaker 3: I do think, you know, with with with with.
Speaker 2: The ten days of preparation, Teddy is going to be
Speaker 2: in a very similar spot to that. The preseason number,
Speaker 2: I want to say, was at like, uh, you know,
Speaker 2: plus three and a half, which is basically where we're
Speaker 2: at now. I think if you were on the look
Speaker 2: aheadline last week, that was all we up to minus
Speaker 2: six and a half.
Speaker 3: So I do think, you know, moving from six and a.
Speaker 2: Half back all the way down to where we were
Speaker 2: at in the preseason is a pretty drastic, uh, pretty
Speaker 2: drastic over over over emphasizing of, you know, both the
Speaker 2: tu injury.
Speaker 3: And what the New York Jets put forth last week.
Speaker 3: So I'm with you.
Speaker 2: I think you know, anytime you can bet the second
Speaker 2: time for you know, the Jets to potentially fumble the
Speaker 2: bag a little bit there.
Speaker 3: Like you mentioned, I do think it is probably the
Speaker 3: correct bet. So I'm on, I'm on, I'm on.
Speaker 2: Miami here, and if I can get minus three, all
Speaker 2: the better, I would say, for sure. I do.
Speaker 1: Also, the over in this one forty six points feels
Speaker 1: a little low to maybe, as the Jets with Zach
Speaker 1: Wilson can actually kind of move the football. He his
Speaker 1: mobility disguises the fact that this offensive line is about
Speaker 1: one injury away from calling me up and asking me
Speaker 1: to play left tackle. Matt, what do you think here?
Speaker 4: I would I would like to So I'll say I
Speaker 4: have this exactly at three, But I will say I
Speaker 4: know that what's going into my numbers here might be
Speaker 4: wrong in that my assumption, and this is where I
Speaker 4: could be very wrong. My assumption is that Tua is
Speaker 4: one and a half points better than Teddy Bridgewater. But
Speaker 4: I don't know if I actually believe that. Like I
Speaker 4: and that's not to take anything away from Tua, who's
Speaker 4: looked really good this year, but you know, he's had
Speaker 4: the weapons around him. I think Mike McDaniel has used
Speaker 4: him in a really intelligent way. And too, Bin's point
Speaker 4: with the Dolphins coming off of Thursday Night football, they
Speaker 4: have extra time, and you know they've known this whole
Speaker 4: time that Bridgewater was going to be the starter, and
Speaker 4: so what they have done for Tua, I think they
Speaker 4: can kind of adapt for Teddy, and so I feel
Speaker 4: I am probably discounting too much with the drop from
Speaker 4: from Tua to Teddy. But Ben, I'm wondering if you
Speaker 4: can talk a little bit more about how you how
Speaker 4: you see that gap, exactly what you think that gap
Speaker 4: might be.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a good question because I do think it
Speaker 2: very much depends on where you have to a rated
Speaker 2: or whatever. And I think you know, from our perspective,
Speaker 2: we have them right around, you know, three three points
Speaker 2: basically if you were kind of looking at like a
Speaker 2: spread differential drop off. But I also think Teddy Bridgewar
Speaker 2: is probably the best backup quarterback in the NFL. If
Speaker 2: he's not, he's really close to it. Has been successful
Speaker 2: kind of stepping into that role in previous situations, So
Speaker 2: I really, you know, uh, put it more closer to like,
Speaker 2: you know, a point and a half differential between those
Speaker 2: two guys. I think that is basically what you but
Speaker 2: moving between or you know, dropping two three, I think,
Speaker 2: you know, has a much higher probability of even landing
Speaker 2: on that out come. I do think it's worth you know,
Speaker 2: a lot more than you know, just saying like it's
Speaker 2: you know, it's a point and a half differential between
Speaker 2: these two teams, So I think are between these two quarterbacks.
Speaker 2: So I think, you know, getting down to three is
Speaker 2: more than enough to kind of say Teddy can definitely
Speaker 2: handle this in this particular spot, I would say.
Speaker 1: Take the Dolphins here. Just just trust me on this.
Speaker 1: I've seen this movie way too many times. Take the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: That's my favorite player of the week. Matt. You're going
Speaker 1: with one that There are so many different things that
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about in this game here, So I'm eager
Speaker 1: to hear your thoughts on Detroit versus New England. Is
Speaker 1: it gonna be Zappy hour again here? This Detroit defense
Speaker 1: is bad, but they are getting three points here in
Speaker 1: this spot. This line's still yep. Three, three and a
Speaker 1: half depending on where you look at MGMs three and
Speaker 1: a half? Are you going with Detroit in this one?
Speaker 1: Are are you going with the Patriots and their quarterback
Speaker 1: that yet to be named here?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going with Detroit. And I mean three and
Speaker 4: a half feels like such a great number to be
Speaker 4: able to get in this spot. You know, Dan Campbell
Speaker 4: just perpetual underdog fourteen and six against the spread as
Speaker 4: an underdog and road dogs off a loss since twenty eighteen.
Speaker 4: And I'll just say the reason why I'm picking twenty
Speaker 4: and eighteen is because that's when PASPA was pulled back.
Speaker 4: So I feel like that's when you started seeing just
Speaker 4: more more dumb money, for lack of a better way
Speaker 4: of putting it, entering the sports betting market. So, like,
Speaker 4: what is the squarest thing that someone could do. They
Speaker 4: could bet, They could bet on someone at home, they
Speaker 4: could bet on a favorite, and like they could bet
Speaker 4: against a team that was coming off of a loss.
Speaker 4: So if you look at road underdogs off of a loss,
Speaker 4: they're one seventy nine ten against this bread since twenty eighteen,
Speaker 4: and so like that's like that's a pretty large sample.
Speaker 4: And so that's something going towards the Lions, and the
Speaker 4: spot in home favorites home favorites of no more of
Speaker 4: with a spread of no more than minus three for
Speaker 4: twenty one four seventy one and fifty against the spread. So,
Speaker 4: like the bigger picture, trends are kind of pointing in
Speaker 4: opposite directions for these two teams and pointing towards the Lions.
Speaker 4: And then you take into account the fact that we
Speaker 4: really don't know who is starting for the Patriots in
Speaker 4: this spot. I do not think it is mac Jones,
Speaker 4: even though he has been practicing on a limited basis.
Speaker 4: You know, the severity of the injury that he suffered
Speaker 4: in week three, the reporting was that expectations were for
Speaker 4: him to be sidelined multiple weeks. I'm very skeptical he
Speaker 4: starts in this spot. So that goes to back up
Speaker 4: Brian Hoyer, who was concussed. So maybe he's able to start.
Speaker 4: You know, quarterbacks is within the timeframe of when it's
Speaker 4: realistic to think that a guy has a real chance
Speaker 4: to come back, but maybe not. You never know with concussions.
Speaker 4: Hoyer I think is as bad as he might be.
Speaker 4: In reality, he's still like an NFL veteran who knows
Speaker 4: the system. ZAPPI. Maybe. I mean he feels like Mike White,
Speaker 4: except without like without like the game of sexiness to
Speaker 4: make you think he actually might be something. So I
Speaker 4: am very skeptical of whatever is happening with the quarterback
Speaker 4: situation for the Patriots, and then just big pictures. Stepping
Speaker 4: away from that, this Lion's rush offense against the Patriots
Speaker 4: rush defense, I think is going to just destroy. Even
Speaker 4: even though there's no you know, number one running back
Speaker 4: DeAndre Swift, I still think that they're going to run
Speaker 4: the ball really well. The Patriots defense ranks number thirty
Speaker 4: one in both rush DVOA and rush success rate. And
Speaker 4: you have censer Frank rag Noow. He's dealing with a
Speaker 4: foot injury, but I'm not really worried about that. He
Speaker 4: didn't practice yesterday, but that's kind of keeping in pattern
Speaker 4: with his practice habits from last week when he played
Speaker 4: and wasn't at all on the injury boards, so I'm
Speaker 4: not worried about him. You got left guard Jonah Jackson
Speaker 4: who's dealing with a finger injury, but he returned to
Speaker 4: practice on Wednesday, which is a positive development, So he's
Speaker 4: got a shot to play this week. And then on
Speaker 4: the other side, you have the Patriots. Last week, they
Speaker 4: were without defensive tackle Lawrence Guy, who was dealing with
Speaker 4: the shoulder injury. He's one of their main interior run stoppers.
Speaker 4: He didn't practice at all last week. He didn't practice
Speaker 4: on Wednesday, so I'm kind of skeptical that he's playing.
Speaker 4: In our Fantasy Pro's Unit power rankings, the Lions offensive
Speaker 4: line has a massive edge over the Patriots defensive line.
Speaker 4: We have them ranked number three, the Patriots defensive line
Speaker 4: at number twenty six, so significant edge, and I think
Speaker 4: with that we're going to see the Lions just push
Speaker 4: the Patriots around and control the ball with their grand
Speaker 4: their ground attack, and I think that keeps this game close.
Speaker 4: This number was Lions plus one in the look ahead market.
Speaker 4: That's where I have it projected. Now, maybe the market
Speaker 4: believes with the move from plus one to plus three
Speaker 4: plus three and a half, maybe the market beliefs that
Speaker 4: mac Jones actually has a real shot to play this week.
Speaker 4: That to me is like the only explanation for why
Speaker 4: this line has moved to two and a half points
Speaker 4: in the past week. But I'm skeptical that mac Jones plays,
Speaker 4: So I am very happy to be taking the three
Speaker 4: to three and a half currently out there.
Speaker 1: I'm looking around right here for some injury updates. Mac
Speaker 1: Jones was on the practice field listed as a limited participant.
Speaker 1: Hoyer definitely still in concussion protocol. I think tomorrow will
Speaker 1: be the day where we really figure it out and
Speaker 1: see what's going to happen here. I am, of course
Speaker 1: always looking to the over in a Lions game now
Speaker 1: because you combine their ability to play offense with their
Speaker 1: complete lack of ability to play defense. I mean, you
Speaker 1: turned the game with the Seattle Seahawks into a shootout.
Speaker 1: You're not stopping anybody right now. But Ben, what are
Speaker 1: you thinking on this one?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm definitely in agreement with Matt. I think, you know,
Speaker 2: the line movement specifically just like doesn't add up whatsoever
Speaker 2: right now, both because you know it's very much in
Speaker 2: question whether mac Jones is going to play, but also
Speaker 2: you know, kind of what we just talked about with
Speaker 2: Tua and Teddy, right like, the we don't from PFS perspective,
Speaker 2: we don't really you know, think mac Jones is all
Speaker 2: that much better than Brian Hoyer, so for him to
Speaker 2: be worth you know, a full three points while also
Speaker 2: moving through you know, the most important number that is
Speaker 2: there and betting on football and three actually, like it
Speaker 2: just seems like a lot. The injury situation for Detroit
Speaker 2: specifically is I would say a little concerned. Youate it
Speaker 2: sounds like Deandrew Swift, like you said on the questional
Speaker 2: side of doubtful. If Amon Ross Brown is back in,
Speaker 2: I think that's a pretty big boon to a Detroit
Speaker 2: passing offense that has been much better than expected.
Speaker 1: I will cut you off real quick. I don't think
Speaker 1: that he's playing this week.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I doubt he plays, so he's questionable.
Speaker 2: And then yeah, Josh Reynolds I think is also up
Speaker 2: on the injury report. He's another guy that I think
Speaker 2: is also you know, borderline what's going to happen with
Speaker 2: him as well. So I am concerned about Detroit. But
Speaker 2: I think the weakness from Detroit's defense especially is it
Speaker 2: doesn't really play into the strengths of the Patriots offense,
Speaker 2: especially with Brian Horry at quarterback regularly, He's not going
Speaker 2: to be able to, you know, beat even the worst
Speaker 2: coverage unit in the NFL deep downfield consistently. We might
Speaker 2: see one or two lucky plays, but I don't firmly
Speaker 2: really believe in the Patriots past catching unit to kind
Speaker 2: of make those contestant throws or contested catches downfield, So
Speaker 2: I'm concerned about that as well. So I think, you know,
Speaker 2: plus three and a half, even with you know, Detroit's
Speaker 2: skill position injury situation, I still think they're definitely the
Speaker 2: correct side here.
Speaker 1: I'm just excited that for the first time since two
Speaker 1: hundred PC, people might actually be afraid to play against
Speaker 1: the Lions. So it's a it's a great time to
Speaker 1: be alive right now, as we move on to our
Speaker 1: next game, here the Bengals and the Ravens in a
Speaker 1: showdown that at the preseason we were definitely all circling
Speaker 1: the calendar for saying this was going to be a
Speaker 1: good game. And then the Bengals came out and didn't
Speaker 1: look so good through the first several weeks. But are
Speaker 1: they back on track now? Ben we're seeing them in
Speaker 1: this spot here they are the Sunday night game and
Speaker 1: right now Bengals getting three on the road in this
Speaker 1: one three and a half If you can find it
Speaker 1: around town, bet MGM and points Bett.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm willing to be wrong on this one,
Speaker 2: but you know, from PFF's perspective, we still the Bengals,
Speaker 2: as you know, a better team overall and in basically
Speaker 2: all of our power rankings metric better offense. I do
Speaker 2: think that, you know, the Mark Jackson obviously builds up
Speaker 2: the Ravens offense to a point where he is definitely
Speaker 2: like an MVP type candidate, but you know, outside of
Speaker 2: him and Mark Andrews, there's there's definitely concerns, I would say,
Speaker 2: for them actually being productive. Now. You know, the Bengals
Speaker 2: front has been pretty good from a pressure situation, so
Speaker 2: I do think they're going to be at least somewhat
Speaker 2: successful if they can kind of hold their gaps in
Speaker 2: keeping la Mar Jackson contained. And I do think that
Speaker 2: they have, you know, enough going up against what I
Speaker 2: would consider to be one of the worst secretaries in
Speaker 2: the NFL right now, in the Baltimore Ravens really beat up.
Speaker 2: It seems like, you know, the Week two game against
Speaker 2: Miami kind of highlighted just how poor they're playing, especially
Speaker 2: on deep balls. I think that's you know, the one
Speaker 2: real strength from Cincinnati that we haven't really seen Carrie
Speaker 2: forward into twenty twenty two yet, So I think we're
Speaker 2: going to see a few big chunk plays. I think
Speaker 2: they're you know, going to be right there at the end.
Speaker 2: So if I lose, you know, if I lose because
Speaker 2: the Ravens score a touchdown, I think to win this
Speaker 2: game out right, I'm definitely willing to take that because
Speaker 2: I think in the majority of situations this game is
Speaker 2: going to be settled by a field goal or less.
Speaker 2: So Bengals plus three and a half Sunday Night, I
Speaker 2: think is you know, probably my favorite spread that you
Speaker 2: can bet in Week five.
Speaker 1: Matt, what are you thinking in this one?
Speaker 4: Yeah? I like this. I got at plus three and
Speaker 4: a half. Definitely like it at three. Sorry, at three
Speaker 4: and a half much more than three because of the
Speaker 4: key number there. I haven't projected for two point twenty five,
Speaker 4: and so I think to be able to get it
Speaker 4: through the three. And you said that this was one
Speaker 4: of your favorite bets, I was gonna ask this is
Speaker 4: one that I am really eyeing for different contests, you
Speaker 4: know where you have to pick five, especially the contests
Speaker 4: have locked it in at plus three and a half.
Speaker 4: I think there's there's significant value there, and so this
Speaker 4: is one of the ones that I think I will
Speaker 4: probably have there. And you know you said earlier that pff.
Speaker 4: Still with everything that you put into your your power ratings,
Speaker 4: you guys still have Cincinnati a little bit ahead of Baltimore.
Speaker 4: I have them at exactly the same spot in my
Speaker 4: power ratings. So yeah, I do think that you know, yeah, sure,
Speaker 4: homefield advantage, but you have two divisional rivals. I think
Speaker 4: that counts for something. I think it should make the
Speaker 4: spread tighter. And so yeah, I think if you can
Speaker 4: get this at three or above, you're getting pretty good
Speaker 4: value there. Because this I don't think there should be
Speaker 4: a field goal.
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Speaker 1: dot comforty tis Now, how about this next game?
Speaker 2: Here?
Speaker 1: We got Carolina and San Francisco. Always a dicey proposition
Speaker 1: when you've got West going east and SF coming off
Speaker 1: of their big Monday night football win over the Rams
Speaker 1: minus six and a half over Baker and the Panthers here.
Speaker 1: I mean, on the one hand, it's Matt Ruhle and
Speaker 1: the Panthers. On the other hand, it's Kyle Shanahan and
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers as road favorites.
Speaker 3: Man, where are you going here? Via Is?
Speaker 1: As much as I want to be against you on
Speaker 1: this one, I really don't think I can be.
Speaker 4: I know, I hate myself for this. I mean, no,
Speaker 4: I love to bet against Kyle Shahan anytime. He's a
Speaker 4: favorite of one of the joys in my life. But
Speaker 4: I don't want to do that with Baker Mayfield, or
Speaker 4: with Matt Ruhle, or with their offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo
Speaker 4: for that matter, None of those three guys I want
Speaker 4: to have any part of. But I really do think
Speaker 4: that this is the right side here. Kyle Shanahan sixteen
Speaker 4: twenty six and one against the spread As a favorite,
Speaker 4: I mean, there's just there's something about the way that
Speaker 4: he calls games. He's great as an underdog, horrible as
Speaker 4: a favorite. I think he just gets a little too
Speaker 4: conservative with the play calling when they are in certain
Speaker 4: game scripts, and that allows teams, you know, pretty routinely
Speaker 4: to be able to get the spread. And for me,
Speaker 4: this comes down to the Panthers rush defense against the
Speaker 4: forty nine Ers rush offense. You know, again, the Panthers,
Speaker 4: they're easy to make fun of because of everything they
Speaker 4: have going on with the coaching staff and on the
Speaker 4: offensive side of the ball, but you know, the defense
Speaker 4: is actually pretty good. They're they're top twelve against both
Speaker 4: the pass and the run in EPA. Their run defense especially,
Speaker 4: I think should help them keep this contest close. The
Speaker 4: forty nine Ers offense is number six in rush rate.
Speaker 4: Like they want to run the ball. Their offense is
Speaker 4: heavily predicated on the running game, but they haven't been
Speaker 4: able to do it that well. They've been no better
Speaker 4: than number twenty in any of the key rushing efficiency metrics,
Speaker 4: whether it's EPA success rate, DVOA. Right, They're just they're
Speaker 4: not running as well as they have previously. And you know,
Speaker 4: the forty nine ers running game, it's especially hampered with
Speaker 4: their injuries. They're without their number one running back, they're
Speaker 4: without one of their key backup running backs, and Terry
Speaker 4: and Davis Price they're without obviously like they're running quarterback
Speaker 4: in Trey lance. They're also missing their starting left tackle
Speaker 4: Trent Williams, who is easily the best offensive lineman that
Speaker 4: they have, and now they're probably going to be without
Speaker 4: backup left tackle Colton mckibbittz, who seems very certain to
Speaker 4: be missing this game with a knee injury. So you
Speaker 4: put all that together, and the thing that the forty
Speaker 4: nine want to do the best, I don't think they're
Speaker 4: really going to be able to do all that well
Speaker 4: in this game. This number was Panthers plus three in
Speaker 4: the look ahead market just a week ago. Uh six
Speaker 4: six and a half. Now, Like, I don't think enough
Speaker 4: has changed from then to now to justify the line
Speaker 4: movement that we've seen. So I hate myself for doing it,
Speaker 4: but I will be betting the Panthers at six and
Speaker 4: a half.
Speaker 1: Then what are you thinking here? Because you got me convinced, Matt,
Speaker 1: I mean I would. I will say this.
Speaker 2: I do think the Panthers are the only correct side
Speaker 2: to bet on into this game. I just can't bring
Speaker 2: myself to do it. I think I've said week zero,
Speaker 2: week one that they are the worst team in the NFL.
Speaker 2: I think when you factor in, you know, the coaching situation,
Speaker 2: the quarterback situation, everything else, like They're just they're a
Speaker 2: complete cluster. It seems like in so many situations on
Speaker 2: the flip side of that, like San Francisco has this weird,
Speaker 2: like almost Kyle Shanahan type tax in the betting market
Speaker 2: where it seems like they are kind of overvaluing him
Speaker 2: every single week. So I'll find myself on the other
Speaker 2: side of San Francisco when they're playing it, and I
Speaker 2: think it's a similar, you know, mindset with New England
Speaker 2: Patriots as well. I do think that, you know, for
Speaker 2: some reason, the betting market does something with their coaching
Speaker 2: rankings or something else that kind of seems like those
Speaker 2: two teams are always overvalued compared to what I'm looking at.
Speaker 2: I'm not quite sure how they do that or what
Speaker 2: they're exactly looking at, but it's just a spot where
Speaker 2: I think they probably overvalue those two guys specifically, And
Speaker 2: so I'm going to find myself against San Francisco again.
Speaker 2: Like you said, I think that Trent Williams injury has
Speaker 2: kind of changed their offense right, forced George Kittle to
Speaker 2: kind of stay in and at least Chip if not
Speaker 2: you know, past block to the point where they aren't
Speaker 2: really getting to him out in as many routes as
Speaker 2: he should be. So that kind of forces, you know,
Speaker 2: Deebo Samuel to be a pretty big playmaker after the catch,
Speaker 2: and that worked out well in their Los Angeles Rams game.
Speaker 2: But I don't really think it's a sustainable, long term
Speaker 2: effective offense. So if I was betting a game, or
Speaker 2: if I was betting the side on this, I would
Speaker 2: definitely be on the Panthers. But I just can't bring
Speaker 2: myself to be on that side with Matt Rule anytime
Speaker 2: soon here. So I'm waiting for, you know, the coaching
Speaker 2: firing chair or something that happen before I can really
Speaker 2: get on board with Carolina reviving anything for the twenty
Speaker 2: twenty two season.
Speaker 1: I'm sure there are plenty of Calcutta Carolina owners who
Speaker 1: are very much banking on just that to get that
Speaker 1: first coach fired bonus. But this next game that we
Speaker 1: have up here, the Cardinals going up against the Eagles.
Speaker 1: We got the Eagles laying five and a half right
Speaker 1: now on the road in Arizona against Cliff Kingsbury. Ben,
Speaker 1: I need you to tell me here what is PFF seeing?
Speaker 1: Are the Birds real?
Speaker 2: I mean, I think the Eagles very much are for real.
Speaker 2: I think if you're you know, trying to rank powering
Speaker 2: teams right now, mainly based on twenty twenty two performance,
Speaker 2: it's it's kind of the Bills, but even their jury situation,
Speaker 2: I would say, knock them down a little bit. And
Speaker 2: then it's really the Philadelphia Eagles. You know, heading into
Speaker 2: the season, I would say, you know, two through fifty
Speaker 2: three or whatever. On Philadelphia side, we're probably the best
Speaker 2: that you could find. Right, offensive line, best best in
Speaker 2: the NFL, you know, either secondary, I would say it
Speaker 2: has played better than expected. I think Darius Slay has
Speaker 2: at point's been you know, a shutdown type cornerback at
Speaker 2: the NFL level. It seems like he is, you know,
Speaker 2: finally really doing that week in and week on. I
Speaker 2: think that helps them immensely. And then of course Jalen Hurts, right,
Speaker 2: he was probably the one question mark for Philadelphia. I
Speaker 2: would say, no matter how high your expectations were in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, he's probably exceeded those already, just based
Speaker 2: on the fact that he's doing it by delivering the
Speaker 2: football downfield accurately to his playmakers and they're you know,
Speaker 2: winning at the top of routes. And I do think that,
Speaker 2: you know, there was probably a consideration that he could
Speaker 2: do it rushing the football a lot, taking off on
Speaker 2: some of these you know, broken down type plays. But
Speaker 2: the thing that's impressed me in most is his ability
Speaker 2: and his willingness to continue looking downfield even when he
Speaker 2: kind of breaks contained breaks out of the pocket, and
Speaker 2: those have kind of been, you know, some of their
Speaker 2: biggest chunk plays of the season. So I think if
Speaker 2: that continues, you know, they're going to be really hard out.
Speaker 2: But in saying all that, I am on the Cardinals
Speaker 2: side once again. I think they're a team that I'm
Speaker 2: back basically for the last three weeks. I don't really
Speaker 2: feel overly confident about that particular you know idea, but
Speaker 2: I think, you know, the Cardinals were kind of a
Speaker 2: team that was just, you know, much maligned. I would
Speaker 2: say in the off season the Kyler Murray situation. Does
Speaker 2: he study plays Cliff Kingsbury. I think everyone you know
Speaker 2: at this point is pretty wise to you know, how
Speaker 2: in some ways defective he is as a head coach.
Speaker 2: But I still think that you know, with where this
Speaker 2: where this number has moved home dog all things considered,
Speaker 2: I would take Cardinals plus five and a half, and
Speaker 2: it there's a spot that I'm betting and probably locking
Speaker 2: into some of those pick up contests as well.
Speaker 1: Matt, what are you thinking here in this one? Are
Speaker 1: you going with the Eagles or are you taking Arizona?
Speaker 1: We do have three more weeks before the new.
Speaker 3: Call of duty.
Speaker 4: I know it's it's a great bird matchup that we
Speaker 4: have here, and this line has actually moved to to
Speaker 4: five at a couple of books, until you know, maybe
Speaker 4: there's still some lingering value there in the five and
Speaker 4: a half that we see. But yeah, I mean, it's
Speaker 4: just it's a disgusting slate for me, I think in general,
Speaker 4: and I'm on a whole bunch of underdogs that I
Speaker 4: really don't want to be on. But you know, I'm
Speaker 4: just kind of betting the numbers here and I'm going
Speaker 4: with the Cardinals. Cliff Kingsbury horrible as a head coach.
Speaker 4: Horrible is a favorite, but pretty good as an underdog
Speaker 4: twenty nine and two against the spread as an underdog
Speaker 4: and on the money line uh sixteen fourteen and one
Speaker 4: as an underdog, which is good for a forty three
Speaker 4: point six percent return on investment. Like he's he has
Speaker 4: been good in this spot. And you know, maybe it's
Speaker 4: not so much him. It's probably not so much him.
Speaker 4: It's probably just hey, Kyler, go do something. But I
Speaker 4: do think in this game, even though it's a it's
Speaker 4: a tough matchup. And I have been impressed by the
Speaker 4: Eagles defense, their secondary in particular, but they haven't been
Speaker 4: that good un rushed defense. And you know, the car
Speaker 4: again something of a joke. They're horizontal raid passing attack,
Speaker 4: but their running game has always been pretty good. You know,
Speaker 4: I think it's just something of a function of how
Speaker 4: they play their offense. They force defenses to spread out,
Speaker 4: and the Eagles defense, you know, even though they tried
Speaker 4: to make additions this offseason to bolster the run defense,
Speaker 4: you know, defensive tackle Jordan Davis, through the draft, they
Speaker 4: signed in free agency, edge Hassan Reddick, linebacker Becazeer White,
Speaker 4: and free agency they drafted linebacker na Kobe Dean. They've
Speaker 4: they've made moves to try to improve against the run.
Speaker 4: It still hasn't done anything right. The Cardinals they have
Speaker 4: outperformed the Eagles defense in every key rushing efficiency metric.
Speaker 4: And you know, and none of these rushing efficiency metrics
Speaker 4: is the Eagles defense in the top twenty. So if
Speaker 4: a home team can run the ball with success, it
Speaker 4: has a good chance to cover, whether it's a favorite
Speaker 4: or an underdog. And in the offseason market we talked
Speaker 4: about this on the Tuesday Show with Drew Denzik and
Speaker 4: the offense season market, this line was Cardinals minus two
Speaker 4: and a half. I mean, yes, they have underperformed expectations
Speaker 4: to open the year and the Eagles have outperformed, but
Speaker 4: not enough for this line to move eight points in
Speaker 4: just four games. So again, hate myself for doing it.
Speaker 4: I will be taking the Cardinals at plus five and
Speaker 4: a half.
Speaker 1: The last game that we have here on the slate
Speaker 1: that we want to talk about right now. The autumn
Speaker 1: wind may be a pirate, but the Raiders head into
Speaker 1: Kansas City this weekend to seven point dogs in this one.
Speaker 1: An old boy, it's Monday night football in Kansas City.
Speaker 1: You got the Chiefs buzzing on all cylinders right now.
Speaker 1: I don't know. On the one side, you have the
Speaker 1: fact that the Raiders do always like to play this
Speaker 1: team tough, and you do have the fact that we
Speaker 1: have plenty of times before seeing the Chiefs look absolutely
Speaker 1: invincible one week and then come out and lay an
Speaker 1: egg the next But Matt, where are you going in
Speaker 1: this one? Are you taking the Chiefs and laying the
Speaker 1: points or are you riding with the Raiders?
Speaker 4: Yeah? I will be very square, very fishy here. Just
Speaker 4: tell me it's Andy Reid playing a divisional opponent, Okay,
Speaker 4: I'm going with the Chiefs. Or tell me it's Patrick
Speaker 4: Mahomes in primetime. Okay, I will bet on that side.
Speaker 4: Andy Reid is thirty three to twenty one and one
Speaker 4: against the spread with the Chiefs against divisional opponents. Patrick
Speaker 4: Mahomes fourteen nine and one against the spread in primetime.
Speaker 4: And for me, this really does come down to Patrick
Speaker 4: Mahomes going against a Raiders pass defense that I think
Speaker 4: is really bad. And for a team to cover a
Speaker 4: big spread, it needs to be able to move the
Speaker 4: ball through the air so they can score a lot
Speaker 4: of points quickly, and obviously with Patrick Mahomes the Chiefs
Speaker 4: can do that. Even without Tyreek Hill, they're top eight
Speaker 4: and all the key passing efficiency metrics this year, and
Speaker 4: the Raiders defense very much is not. This is one
Speaker 4: of the worst pass defense units in the league. In
Speaker 4: our Fantasy Pros unit power rankings, I see Mahomes as
Speaker 4: having a massive edge over the Raiders defense and the
Speaker 4: secondary in particular. I personally think Mahomes is still the
Speaker 4: best quarterback in the league. But as a staff, we
Speaker 4: have him ranked number two. Fine, he's top two. He's
Speaker 4: going against the defense that we have ranked number twenty
Speaker 4: five and a secondary that we have ranked number twenty nine.
Speaker 4: This is just a massive edge advantage that he has,
Speaker 4: and I think the Chiefs will be able to score
Speaker 4: at will. And I do not think that on the
Speaker 4: other side of this, the Raiders offense will be able
Speaker 4: to keep up enough against a Chiefs defense that isn't great,
Speaker 4: but is good enough.
Speaker 1: I'm curious here when you say he's not the number
Speaker 1: two quarterback on your rankings. That's behind Bailey's appy right,
Speaker 1: almost very close, very close. He's number three. All right, Ben,
Speaker 1: what are you thinking in this game? I would say,
Speaker 1: you know, I'm pretty much with Matt, right. I think
Speaker 1: we don't really have a strong lean in one direction.
Speaker 1: I don't think this is the rate, you know, even
Speaker 1: close to the.
Speaker 2: Same Raiders team that beat you know, the Chiefs outright basically,
Speaker 2: you know, was the last year two years, God, in
Speaker 2: my years run them? Yeah, so it's but it's you know,
Speaker 2: obviously things have turned over with the Raiders. I would
Speaker 2: say Josh McDaniels has been very lackluster to start. It
Speaker 2: seems like they're just not really utilizing Devonte Adams in
Speaker 2: a role that I would have even expected to kind
Speaker 2: of start the season. So with that in disarray a
Speaker 2: little bit, you know, I think this is probably closer
Speaker 2: to like an eight point differential based on PFS power
Speaker 2: rankings numbers only. So if you fold in you know,
Speaker 2: a little bit of expectation for home field advantage as well,
Speaker 2: you can easily see why the Chiefs might be the
Speaker 2: correct side in this particular matchup. But yeah, what it
Speaker 2: comes down to with me and the Chiefs is if
Speaker 2: I knew when Andy Reid was motivated to call and
Speaker 2: like unveil his you know, arsenal of creative plays and
Speaker 2: everything else, I would bet them every single week. The
Speaker 2: problem is sometimes he he seems to almost you know,
Speaker 2: not really willing or not really wanting to show or
Speaker 2: put his best plays on tape. But I do think
Speaker 2: that you know, in primetime Division rival a spot where
Speaker 2: they can you know, kind of you know, very Las
Speaker 2: Vegas Raiders for all intents and purposes and have no
Speaker 2: shot of really winning or competing for a playoff spot,
Speaker 2: much less the AFC West crowd. I think we're going
Speaker 2: to see probably the best version of the kingsc cate
Speaker 2: Chiefs one more week, so they're the only side I
Speaker 2: would bet. I've not bet them yet, but I think
Speaker 2: at minus seven or whatever, its Chiefs or Busts.
Speaker 1: In my opinion, if I have to lay seven points
Speaker 1: with any team in the league, especially this week, and
Speaker 1: this slate has a lot of those options, it's got
Speaker 1: to be the Chiefs. I mean, last week I was
Speaker 1: on the Raiders, but that was against Denver. This is
Speaker 1: a whole different story here. And we're talking about this
Speaker 1: Chiefs team last year. They outscored the Raiders eighty nine
Speaker 1: to twenty three in both of their matchups last season. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the Raiders almost got the best of them the year before,
Speaker 1: winning one and losing one by four. But this is
Speaker 1: just an I texted Matt right after the right after
Speaker 1: the Raider game last week, and I just said Chiefs
Speaker 1: by forty this week that this team is this is
Speaker 1: not going to be good for the Raiders in prime time. Now, guys,
Speaker 1: before we get you out of here. I want to
Speaker 1: ask the end of every show, if you had to
Speaker 1: pick a team for your Survivor pick this week, Chiefs
Speaker 1: do seem like an enticing option at home, but that
Speaker 1: is a divisional game. I was looking at Jacksonville against Houston,
Speaker 1: but Jacksonville has actually lost to Houston the last four
Speaker 1: times that they've played. But this is a very different
Speaker 1: Jags team here. Matt, what are you thinking? Would Jacksonville
Speaker 1: be your pick or would you go somewhere else? And
Speaker 1: the Survivor.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I always forget that you're going to mention this,
Speaker 4: and so every time you start wrapping, Yeah, I'm sure
Speaker 4: it is in the rundown. You know, it would have
Speaker 4: to be something that I actually pay attention to. But yes,
Speaker 4: you are right, it is in the rundown. And so
Speaker 4: the team that immediately caught my eye was Jacksonville here
Speaker 4: because you probably haven't used them yet. I mean, you
Speaker 4: just want to pick on Houston when you have the opportunity,
Speaker 4: and some of these other teams I think you probably
Speaker 4: want to save. So I think Jacksonville is a decent
Speaker 4: play here. That said, this is coming from a guy
Speaker 4: who died in Survivor in week one, so don't listen
Speaker 4: to anything. I have to say.
Speaker 1: I have two picks, and I use one to go
Speaker 1: with like a chalkier team where I'm using up all
Speaker 1: the good teams early, and one where I've been taking
Speaker 1: a couple more risks. This feels like a good spot
Speaker 1: for Jacksonville on the risk is when are you going
Speaker 1: to use them again? But Ben, what do you think?
Speaker 1: Do you have an alternative for us? Or are you
Speaker 1: saying ride with the Jags.
Speaker 2: I mean I would say if you didn't use the
Speaker 2: Vikings last week, I think this week is probably one
Speaker 2: of the best options to take them. I don't have
Speaker 2: their full schedule in front of me, but seven and
Speaker 2: a half point favorites at home. I know you're backing
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins after you know, long traveled everything else, but
Speaker 2: I think they're a pretty good spot. I don't know
Speaker 2: if you're gonna feel, you know, any more carveord picking
Speaker 2: them at any other point in time. So I would
Speaker 2: say the Vikings might be an ulterior option if you
Speaker 2: don't want to, you know, use up one of the
Speaker 2: best teams in the NFL or the Jacksonville Jake. Whereas
Speaker 2: at the stage, well, there we go.
Speaker 1: That's going to do it for us here today, Ben,
Speaker 1: Where can people find you and all the great your
Speaker 1: work you're doing around the internet and for PFF.
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely. So PFF does have a you know, new
Speaker 2: mobile app that's still i think technically in Beata or whatever.
Speaker 2: You can download that if you're an iPhone user within
Speaker 2: the continent or within the United States I shouldn't say
Speaker 2: content of the United States. So you can definitely check
Speaker 2: that out. Check me out at PFF Underscore Ben Brown
Speaker 2: on Twitter. I'm also somewhat infrequently on TikTok, but trying
Speaker 2: to step my game up a little bit more, so
Speaker 2: you can follow me on there as well, same user name,
Speaker 2: and yeah, you know, I'd love to, you know, connect
Speaker 2: with some users where people that listened to this podcast
Speaker 2: if they have any feedback specifically about PFF products or
Speaker 2: tools or anything you want to see, definitely hit me
Speaker 2: up from the DMS for.
Speaker 1: Sure, Matt Matt is going to do it for us
Speaker 1: one more time here, Ben Brown at PFF Underscore.
Speaker 2: Ben Brown, Ben Brown, Ben bro There's way too many
Speaker 2: bends out there for me to get the PFF Underscore
Speaker 2: Ben Moniker or whatever.
Speaker 3: It is, I'm rolling with the last name as well.
Speaker 1: And of course you can find Matt on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Matt f the Oracle, catch me at TV at work,
Speaker 1: and don't forget head on over to Betting Pros today
Speaker 1: at betting Pros on any social media app if you
Speaker 1: want to find them. Actually that's not true. They're betting
Speaker 1: Pros NFL on everywhere but Twitter.
Speaker 3: But still, you know what.
Speaker 1: I'm talking about here. Go to Bettingpros dot com slash chat,
Speaker 1: sign up for the Discord today, and guys, that's gonna
Speaker 1: do it. Best of luck this weekend, and let's cash
Speaker 1: some tickets.