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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Thomas Boyola, and it is time for

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Speaker 1: Week five of the NFL season. So we're gonna be

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Speaker 1: talking about the slate picking out our favorite games today,

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Speaker 1: and to help us do that, of course, as always,

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Speaker 1: the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman joins us, and today we

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Speaker 1: are joined by a very special guest. Ben Brown, head

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Speaker 1: of predictive Analysis at PFF, joins the show. Ben, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for coming on today. How are you doing.

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Speaker 2: I'm doing well, guys. You know I enjoy you know,

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Speaker 2: the Betting Pros Content podcast. I definitely appreciate you guys

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Speaker 2: having me on to chat up a little sports.

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Speaker 3: Betting in action for week five. So appreciate you guys

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Speaker 3: having me have here.

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Speaker 1: I'm excited. We're gonna have plenty of games to get

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Speaker 1: to here. We're gonna have some interesting disagreements, some interesting agreements,

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Speaker 1: and some good takes. But first I want to talk

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Speaker 1: to you a little bit about what it is that

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Speaker 1: you do. What is the day in the life of

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Speaker 1: someone running predictive analysis here, especially for a group like PFF.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it is uh. I would say every single day

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Speaker 2: is different of course, we have you know, off season

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Speaker 2: and in season I do think probably changes you know,

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Speaker 2: dramatically for you guys as well. But a lot of

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Speaker 2: like our research type projects tools that we're trying to build,

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Speaker 2: everything else kind of happens in the off season and

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Speaker 2: then we basically you know, kind of try and keep

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Speaker 2: the lights on. So like every Monday morning, I'll wake up.

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Speaker 2: We have like this what we call like a metrics

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Speaker 2: metrics package, which essentially takes all of PFF data and

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Speaker 2: kind of MUSHes it together and does a lot of

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Speaker 2: our output top down models that we kind of use

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Speaker 2: in a lot of our prediction based models, so things

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Speaker 2: like you know PFF Green Line, NCA green Line or

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Speaker 2: player Props tool. We all we train all those models

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Speaker 2: on the on the latest data every single week and

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Speaker 2: then kind of have you know, a prediction basis for

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Speaker 2: when you know, bets and player props and all these

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Speaker 2: other sorts of things kind of come in. So that's

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Speaker 2: you know, in season is much more a reaction. I do,

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Speaker 2: you know, write some content as well, do do podcast.

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Speaker 2: Then the off season is honestly the time that I

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Speaker 2: enjoy and it's when we get to kind of you know, innovate,

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Speaker 2: look at new you know, product offerings and those sorts

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Speaker 2: of things, see what the market is, you know, directly

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Speaker 2: moving like to actually try and make and improve our

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Speaker 2: processes and our predictions. So I like that we have

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Speaker 2: come up with this sort of like play by play

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Speaker 2: simulation that we are don't fully have one percent out

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Speaker 2: there for public facing folks, but I am doing a

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Speaker 2: lot of like accuracy type metrics on that through the

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Speaker 2: first four weeks of the season at least, seeing like

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Speaker 2: how close we are to betting market expectation, how close

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Speaker 2: we are to results, and how well we're actually performing

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Speaker 2: in some back testing characteristics for that particular model that

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Speaker 2: we're kind of trying to bring to the public. So

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Speaker 2: it's it's it's it's changing every single day. It's very

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Speaker 2: fast paced. But I, you know, I enjoy it and

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Speaker 2: I love it. I you know, obviously love to be,

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Speaker 2: you know, involved in the sportspinning community. I do think

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Speaker 2: that it's, you know, exactly where I do and want

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Speaker 2: to be and belong. So yeah, it's it's it's fun,

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Speaker 2: that's for sure.

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Speaker 1: Now, we certainly do know that there are so many

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Speaker 1: practical applications for sports betters who want to be able

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Speaker 1: to use PFF data when it comes to building their

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Speaker 1: own models out. And there was that whole Twitter kerfuffle

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Speaker 1: a week or so ago where with the accusation I

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Speaker 1: don't remember who it was, there was many, but someone

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Speaker 1: talking about how agents will pay for PFF grades. Now,

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Speaker 1: we're not going to talk about that because obviously its BS.

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Speaker 1: What I want to talk to you about with it

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Speaker 1: is the fact that teams do pay for PFF information

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Speaker 1: and data. What can you tell us anything about some

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Speaker 1: of the ways that NFL teams are using what you

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Speaker 1: guys do and using these models in their evaluation of players.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, no, I mean I'm totally fine speaking to it.

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Speaker 2: It was Jason Kelly Kelsey and the Travis Kelsey podcast.

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Speaker 2: It was something to do with you know, agents, you know,

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Speaker 2: paying PFF in order to kind of boost the guys

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Speaker 2: guys great, and you know, it's obviously like that's just

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Speaker 2: not how the process would ever work or anything like that.

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Speaker 3: But we do have kind.

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Speaker 2: Of separate business units now, so I am very much

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Speaker 2: on the consumer side of PFF, you know, the public bacing,

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Speaker 2: front facing, the website and everything else. And then we

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Speaker 2: have a soccer vertical as well, where we're kind of

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Speaker 2: trying to do some of these advanced stats data gathering,

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Speaker 2: you know, the play by play type data for clubs,

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Speaker 2: specifically in like the Premier League Premier League, but.

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Speaker 3: Also the MLS.

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Speaker 2: And then we have like this B to B side

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Speaker 2: of PFF and they are very much focused on, you know,

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Speaker 2: helping NFL teams make correct decisions and basically every facet

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Speaker 2: that we can possibly think of. So we have you know,

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Speaker 2: a product called Ultimate, which you know is like a

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Speaker 2: kind of behind the scenes way of querying and looking

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Speaker 2: up various PFF type stats. And then we also have

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Speaker 2: what's called this like iq IQ component of it, which

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Speaker 2: is specific to teams that does a lot of things

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Speaker 2: with our PFF war metric and kind of trying to understand,

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Speaker 2: you know, what is the what is the best way

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Speaker 2: for teams to allocate their salary dollars correctly to what positions,

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Speaker 2: what guys can kind of, you know, maybe take on

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Speaker 2: similar approaches from a team building perspective. If they do

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Speaker 2: lose one guy in free agency, maybe who would be

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Speaker 2: somebody that can at least fill that role? What should

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Speaker 2: his and what should his actual cost be? So we

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Speaker 2: do have you know, I think at least some sort

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Speaker 2: of contract with all thirty two NFL teams. A lot

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Speaker 2: of the value I think we provide now is especially

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Speaker 2: at the college football level with teams specifically they just

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Speaker 2: don't you know, at the NCAA level, they just don't

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Speaker 2: have I would say, in some of the ways the

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Speaker 2: resources or there's just probably not enough data science type

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Speaker 2: people to really build out, you know, the analytics components

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Speaker 2: for every single NCAA team. So I think we get

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Speaker 2: you know, a lot of those teams that maybe then

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Speaker 2: don't really need to have a really strong analytics staff

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Speaker 2: or multiple staff people. They can just go in use

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Speaker 2: you know, the PFF ultimate information use the iqmation kind

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Speaker 2: of try and look at some similarities between players for

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Speaker 2: things that they you know, have available and like the

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Speaker 2: transfer portal and everything else. And that is kind of

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Speaker 2: you know, definitely probably I don't know if it's the

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Speaker 2: bigger revenue driver for PFF, but it's definitely the spot

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Speaker 2: where you know, that was kind of where we first

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Speaker 2: started off as far as a focus, and it is

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Speaker 2: very much the focus of you know that specific B

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Speaker 2: to B side still which I have I have no

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Speaker 2: real a part in whatsoever. I actually haven't really doing

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Speaker 2: my entire time at PFF, but it definitely is like

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Speaker 2: an interesting component of you know, the overall structure in

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Speaker 2: which we work.

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Speaker 4: Under Ben you mentioned earlier PFF green Line and you

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Speaker 4: know we're going to talk about some of these week

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Speaker 4: five games and and just a little bit. But my

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Speaker 4: question is, when PFF green Line is wrong, is it

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Speaker 4: your fault? Is it George to Herr, I'm trying to

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Speaker 4: figure out who to blame. Kevin Cole, I'm sure could

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Speaker 4: take some of the blame too, But what goes into

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Speaker 4: to some of the projections that that you guys come

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Speaker 4: up with four games?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, And it is a great question.

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Speaker 2: I think at this time I would unfortunately be the

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Speaker 2: most responsible for every uh, every output that Greenline has,

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Speaker 2: which you know it's it's I and I know you

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Speaker 2: know you guys both face this as well, but it

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Speaker 2: is I would say, like I bet, you know, a

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Speaker 2: certain amount of dollars on every single you know, every

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Speaker 2: single bet that I make throughout the week. I care

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Speaker 2: so much more about like our model predictions and my

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Speaker 2: front facing content to do well more so than any

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Speaker 2: dollar amount that I bet on the on the actual

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Speaker 2: games because like it's more so like you're I don't,

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Speaker 2: I don't know what's exactly word.

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Speaker 3: I'm kind of losing it. But it's like it's very

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Speaker 3: much like who you are in a way, are your

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Speaker 3: fix and it's it's and it's it's kind of tough

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Speaker 3: to separate.

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Speaker 2: But going back to the initial question, like we very

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Speaker 2: much have you know, PFF focused uh play by play

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Speaker 2: type grades folded in? I know, we you know this

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Speaker 2: is probably another you know, sensitive area that PFF has

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Speaker 2: dealt with this year, but like you know, specifically our

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Speaker 2: zero to one hundred grades and how we kind of

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Speaker 2: transform that play by play data to this zero to

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Speaker 2: one hundred scale every single week can can occasionally be

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Speaker 2: you know a little bit often like you know, the

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Speaker 2: public perception or whatever. But we take certain ways of

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Speaker 2: you know, trans adjusting for like context, adjusting for opponent

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Speaker 2: strength and everything else, and we arrive at kind of

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Speaker 2: a unique view of every single facet that an NFL

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Speaker 2: team has. We fold that in. We fold in various

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Speaker 2: like rest we rest considerations, some overall team strength type

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Speaker 2: metrics as well, and then you know a few other

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Speaker 2: factors coaching sort of situations, how well that coach has

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Speaker 2: been performing previously. We do a fold in you know,

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Speaker 2: some continuity aspects as far as you know, is is

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Speaker 2: it a new head coach, is it a new offensive coordinator?

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Speaker 2: What is the offensive line situation like? And all those things.

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Speaker 2: So we kind of trying and take that all together

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Speaker 2: and then you know, essentially do a prediction for how

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Speaker 2: well that's going to perform against you know, the spread

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Speaker 2: total and money on that, and we do you know,

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Speaker 2: I'll do a little bit of regression to the market

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Speaker 2: once we actually have those numbers, uh, just to kind

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Speaker 2: of you know, align everything together. But that's that's our

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Speaker 2: current approach from a greenline perspective, is kind of taking

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Speaker 2: that you know, top down method, uh and applying a

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Speaker 2: lot of the things that we think are at least

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Speaker 2: valuable and are helpful and kind of like predicting where

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Speaker 2: the spread should actually be. So that's that's generally the

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Speaker 2: approach we haven't you know, it's been it's been okay.

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Speaker 2: I think we do better at a college level for sure,

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Speaker 2: but that is you know, one of the reasons why

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Speaker 2: we are continuing to try to develop new products that

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Speaker 2: are going to be you know, more successful at predicting

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Speaker 2: just how these games are actually going to play out.

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Speaker 1: Now, guys, let's head on into some of the NFL

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Speaker 1: games and actually predict how some of them we're going

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Speaker 1: to play out for this weekend. And before we do that,

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Speaker 1: I want to remind you real quick you can head

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Speaker 1: on over to bet mgm right now betmgm dot com.

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Speaker 1: on your first game?

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Speaker 3: Here?

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Speaker 1: And that is the Washington Commanders getting two and a half.

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Speaker 1: Although really now our friends at betmgm have this game

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Speaker 1: down to one and a half. You can still find

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Speaker 1: it two and a half somewhere if you like the

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Speaker 1: Commander's side of this. But the Titans on the road

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Speaker 1: here laying one and a half points right now, what

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Speaker 1: are you thinking in this one? Matt?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a disgusting game. I first bet this at

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Speaker 4: plus three. Shout out me. With the sweet closing line

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Speaker 4: value of Titans are winning now yeah, no, I know,

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Speaker 4: I know guarantee that they were winning anyway. This is

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Speaker 4: this is such a disgusting bet to make, but you

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Speaker 4: know I do have this, you know, just based on

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Speaker 4: my numbers, I do have this at point twenty five,

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Speaker 4: you know. And so for the for the Commanders to

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Speaker 4: be getting two and a half, you can still get

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Speaker 4: the two and a half a fan duel one and

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Speaker 4: a half everywhere else, you know, for them still to

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Speaker 4: be getting that, I think there's value there. And you know,

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Speaker 4: if you look at some of the trends, Mike Rabel

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Speaker 4: as a head coach fifteen twenty one and one against

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Speaker 4: the spread as a favorite, nine and fourteen against the

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Speaker 4: spread following multiple wins in a row, and the Commanders,

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Speaker 4: I think they are in a generally good spot, and

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Speaker 4: that home underdogs are eighty two forty seven and seven

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Speaker 4: against the spread off of a three game losing streak,

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Speaker 4: and the teams that happen to go one in three

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Speaker 4: to open the year who are home underdogs in Week five,

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Speaker 4: they are sixteen ten and one against the spread. But

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Speaker 4: you know, looking at kind of the the big picture matchups,

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Speaker 4: for this game, I think it comes down to the

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Speaker 4: Commander's defensive line against the Titans offensive line. And even

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Speaker 4: though the Commanders haven't had edge, Chase Young, who I think,

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Speaker 4: you know, even with the injuries, will still end up

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Speaker 4: being a very good addition to this team when he

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Speaker 4: comes back. The Commander's defense is open the season. They're

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Speaker 4: number nine and adjusted sack and they are top eight

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Speaker 4: in every key rushing efficiency metric rush, EPA, rush success rate,

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Speaker 4: rush DVOA, adjusted lineyards their top eight and all of them.

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Speaker 4: And you compare that to the Titans offense, which is

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Speaker 4: not even average an adjusted sack rate or any rushing

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Speaker 4: efficiency metric. And in the Fantasy pros Unit power rankings,

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Speaker 4: we see the Commander's defensive line as having a significant

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Speaker 4: edge over the Titans offensive line. We have this defensive

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Speaker 4: line at number fourteen. That feels, honestly, I think that's

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Speaker 4: a little bit low, but I think that that's fine,

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Speaker 4: Like that's within the range. We have the Titans offensive

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Speaker 4: line at number twenty seven, you know, like they are

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Speaker 4: dealing with significant injuries, and you know, for the uh,

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Speaker 4: you know, I just I think for the Titans, you

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Speaker 4: could have Ryan Tannehill under pressure for a lot of

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Speaker 4: the game, Derrick Henry, I think you could struggle to

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Speaker 4: find open running lanes just because of the inefficiency of

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Speaker 4: that offensive line. So and in the preseason market, this

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Speaker 4: was Commanders favored by half a point, and my actually

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Speaker 4: is still pretty close to that. I don't think they

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Speaker 4: should be favored, but I don't think they should be

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Speaker 4: close to a field goal in terms of being an

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Speaker 4: underdog here. So I do see value on this, even

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Speaker 4: though like it's a disgusting bet. I freely admit that.

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Speaker 1: Well, I mean, that's your favorite kind of game, is

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Speaker 1: the what like a disgusting kind of game, So of

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Speaker 1: course this is what you're thinking. Ben. Are you with

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Speaker 1: Matt or are you in some disagreement here?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm a lot more convinced of the of

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Speaker 2: Washington's side now that I listen to Matt, But I

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Speaker 2: have been painfully betting Washington the past two weeks, kind

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Speaker 2: of after their Week one impressive performance, and I promise

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Speaker 2: myself this was at least one spot where I could

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Speaker 2: knock get on Washington's side. I mean, I definitely agree

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Speaker 2: with Matt. We from PFI's perspective, we have tennesseee with

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Speaker 2: like the twenty ninth best pass blocking grade to start

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Speaker 2: this season. Washington's like eighth overall in our pressure rate

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Speaker 2: percentage per dropback, So that specific matchup is going to

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Speaker 2: be kind of deciding the game, now, my, my. The

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Speaker 2: other side of the coin that I kind of see

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Speaker 2: is Tennessee has been really good from an EPA perspective.

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Speaker 2: When they've had scripted plays kind of to start the game,

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Speaker 2: They've got off to really good starting points. So I

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Speaker 2: do expect them to potentially be playing from ahead here.

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Speaker 2: I'm hoping for, you know, an early touchdown type situation,

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Speaker 2: and if that happens, I do think they could ride

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Speaker 2: Derek Henry to the point where they are going to

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Speaker 2: get this victory and maybe cover the spread. But I'm

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Speaker 2: with Matt, I think, you know, the plus three for

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Speaker 2: Washington was definitely the correct part price. I do think

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Speaker 2: moving underfield goal differential, I probably still lean at Tennessee side.

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Speaker 2: I would like to see, you know, the injury situation

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Speaker 2: with Washington wide receivers. I think John Dottson is probably

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Speaker 2: on the wrong side of questionable right now. It sounds

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Speaker 2: like Kurtis Seam is probably going to be on the

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00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:47,040
Speaker 2: right side of questionable. So I do think if you

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Speaker 2: know one of them is able to go, that obviously

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Speaker 2: helps a little bit. But if both those guys are out,

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Speaker 2: I think it's going to be you know, it could

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Speaker 2: be a pretty convincing win for Tennessee. So I'm either

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Speaker 2: avoiding it or riding with Tennessee on this one. So

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Speaker 2: this will be the only time I go opposite matth

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Speaker 2: though I promise.

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Speaker 1: You goes above three and a half, I'm with you.

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Speaker 1: Then I'm not looking to lay Tennessee three and a half.

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Speaker 1: But now that it's down to one and a half,

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Speaker 1: and if I can continue to drop here, obviously we've

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Speaker 1: already hit past that, we've already crossed the three, we're

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Speaker 1: good for me. As Kelly Stewart said on the show,

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Speaker 1: quoting Todd Furman a few weeks ago, you don't get

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Speaker 1: rich laying points on the road. But I think I

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Speaker 1: have to lay one and a half here. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the massive Peabody ratings have Tennessee a full six points

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Speaker 1: better than Washington here ninth versus twenty ninth in their

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Speaker 1: ratings for the season. I think this is just a

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Speaker 1: case of good football, bad football. And Carson Wentz and

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Speaker 1: calculated risk. Taker Ron are still bad football, and I

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Speaker 1: think the Titans can at least you at least have

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Speaker 1: Derrick Henry, but you also just have a better team overall.

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Speaker 1: I don't have much faith in the Commanders at this

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Speaker 1: point in the season. One and a half is the

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Speaker 1: right price for me to take the Titans here, guys.

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Speaker 1: But the next game up, this one is probably my

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Speaker 1: favorite game of the week. Here the Jets are taking

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Speaker 1: on the Dolphins and Teddy Bridgewater filling in for Tua

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Speaker 1: Tagovailoa at quarterback.

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Speaker 3: Here.

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Speaker 1: The Jets, of course, coming off the win over Kenny

337
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Speaker 1: Pickett and the Steelers last week. They go home now

338
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Speaker 1: and I feel like this is the second time in

339
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Speaker 1: a row that we've seen this now where the Jets

340
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Speaker 1: get a good win, good win on the road at

341
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Speaker 1: the last minute. Now they come home and the Dolphins

342
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Speaker 1: with Teddy b are laying three to three and a

343
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Speaker 1: half depending on where you look at. MGM has it

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Speaker 1: at three right now, especially now that I don't have

345
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Speaker 1: to pay the hook on it. Give me the Dolphins

346
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Speaker 1: all the way here. I'm a Jets fan. This is

347
00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:43,840
Speaker 1: a Jets disappointment spot. Always bet against two good things

348
00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:45,800
Speaker 1: happening to the Jets in a row. What do you

349
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Speaker 1: think in this one, Ben.

350
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm definitely with you on that.

351
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Speaker 2: I think, you know, Teddy's been a little bit of

352
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Speaker 2: a cover machine, I would say, throughout his entire career,

353
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Speaker 2: so I love backing him.

354
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Speaker 3: You know, especially you know, on the road.

355
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Speaker 2: I do think that it's not going to be as

356
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Speaker 2: bad of a drop off from what the betting markets

357
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Speaker 2: currently projected going from to Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. I

358
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Speaker 2: think a lot of the early season success that Tua

359
00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:10,480
Speaker 2: saw was kind of because you know, Mike McDaniel was

360
00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:12,240
Speaker 2: definitely pushing a lot of the right buttons.

361
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Speaker 3: I do think, you know, with with with with.

362
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Speaker 2: The ten days of preparation, Teddy is going to be

363
00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:19,880
Speaker 2: in a very similar spot to that. The preseason number,

364
00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:21,679
Speaker 2: I want to say, was at like, uh, you know,

365
00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:23,680
Speaker 2: plus three and a half, which is basically where we're

366
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Speaker 2: at now. I think if you were on the look

367
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Speaker 2: aheadline last week, that was all we up to minus

368
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Speaker 2: six and a half.

369
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Speaker 3: So I do think, you know, moving from six and a.

370
00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:31,960
Speaker 2: Half back all the way down to where we were

371
00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:36,160
Speaker 2: at in the preseason is a pretty drastic, uh, pretty

372
00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:40,240
Speaker 2: drastic over over over emphasizing of, you know, both the

373
00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:41,480
Speaker 2: tu injury.

374
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Speaker 3: And what the New York Jets put forth last week.

375
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Speaker 3: So I'm with you.

376
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:47,320
Speaker 2: I think you know, anytime you can bet the second

377
00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:50,040
Speaker 2: time for you know, the Jets to potentially fumble the

378
00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:50,880
Speaker 2: bag a little bit there.

379
00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:53,119
Speaker 3: Like you mentioned, I do think it is probably the

380
00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:55,120
Speaker 3: correct bet. So I'm on, I'm on, I'm on.

381
00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:57,600
Speaker 2: Miami here, and if I can get minus three, all

382
00:17:57,640 --> 00:17:59,520
Speaker 2: the better, I would say, for sure. I do.

383
00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:02,040
Speaker 1: Also, the over in this one forty six points feels

384
00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:04,000
Speaker 1: a little low to maybe, as the Jets with Zach

385
00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:06,640
Speaker 1: Wilson can actually kind of move the football. He his

386
00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:10,679
Speaker 1: mobility disguises the fact that this offensive line is about

387
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:12,919
Speaker 1: one injury away from calling me up and asking me

388
00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,520
Speaker 1: to play left tackle. Matt, what do you think here?

389
00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:19,399
Speaker 4: I would I would like to So I'll say I

390
00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:24,600
Speaker 4: have this exactly at three, But I will say I

391
00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:27,879
Speaker 4: know that what's going into my numbers here might be

392
00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:32,399
Speaker 4: wrong in that my assumption, and this is where I

393
00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:35,639
Speaker 4: could be very wrong. My assumption is that Tua is

394
00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:40,320
Speaker 4: one and a half points better than Teddy Bridgewater. But

395
00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:42,879
Speaker 4: I don't know if I actually believe that. Like I

396
00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:45,480
Speaker 4: and that's not to take anything away from Tua, who's

397
00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:47,880
Speaker 4: looked really good this year, but you know, he's had

398
00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:51,320
Speaker 4: the weapons around him. I think Mike McDaniel has used

399
00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:53,960
Speaker 4: him in a really intelligent way. And too, Bin's point

400
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:56,760
Speaker 4: with the Dolphins coming off of Thursday Night football, they

401
00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,160
Speaker 4: have extra time, and you know they've known this whole

402
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:02,159
Speaker 4: time that Bridgewater was going to be the starter, and

403
00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:06,600
Speaker 4: so what they have done for Tua, I think they

404
00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 4: can kind of adapt for Teddy, and so I feel

405
00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:15,160
Speaker 4: I am probably discounting too much with the drop from

406
00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:17,240
Speaker 4: from Tua to Teddy. But Ben, I'm wondering if you

407
00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:20,520
Speaker 4: can talk a little bit more about how you how

408
00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:23,760
Speaker 4: you see that gap, exactly what you think that gap

409
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 4: might be.

410
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:27,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a good question because I do think it

411
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,520
Speaker 2: very much depends on where you have to a rated

412
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,280
Speaker 2: or whatever. And I think you know, from our perspective,

413
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,240
Speaker 2: we have them right around, you know, three three points

414
00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:39,119
Speaker 2: basically if you were kind of looking at like a

415
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,640
Speaker 2: spread differential drop off. But I also think Teddy Bridgewar

416
00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:45,760
Speaker 2: is probably the best backup quarterback in the NFL. If

417
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,679
Speaker 2: he's not, he's really close to it. Has been successful

418
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:52,359
Speaker 2: kind of stepping into that role in previous situations, So

419
00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:56,320
Speaker 2: I really, you know, uh, put it more closer to like,

420
00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:58,479
Speaker 2: you know, a point and a half differential between those

421
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:00,480
Speaker 2: two guys. I think that is basically what you but

422
00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:05,080
Speaker 2: moving between or you know, dropping two three, I think,

423
00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,200
Speaker 2: you know, has a much higher probability of even landing

424
00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:10,040
Speaker 2: on that out come. I do think it's worth you know,

425
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:12,760
Speaker 2: a lot more than you know, just saying like it's

426
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:14,520
Speaker 2: you know, it's a point and a half differential between

427
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:16,720
Speaker 2: these two teams, So I think are between these two quarterbacks.

428
00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:20,320
Speaker 2: So I think, you know, getting down to three is

429
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:23,439
Speaker 2: more than enough to kind of say Teddy can definitely

430
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,520
Speaker 2: handle this in this particular spot, I would say.

431
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,320
Speaker 1: Take the Dolphins here. Just just trust me on this.

432
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:31,520
Speaker 1: I've seen this movie way too many times. Take the Dolphins.

433
00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 1: That's my favorite player of the week. Matt. You're going

434
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:38,840
Speaker 1: with one that There are so many different things that

435
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:41,399
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about in this game here, So I'm eager

436
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 1: to hear your thoughts on Detroit versus New England. Is

437
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:48,040
Speaker 1: it gonna be Zappy hour again here? This Detroit defense

438
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 1: is bad, but they are getting three points here in

439
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 1: this spot. This line's still yep. Three, three and a

440
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,199
Speaker 1: half depending on where you look at MGMs three and

441
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:01,160
Speaker 1: a half? Are you going with Detroit in this one?

442
00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 1: Are are you going with the Patriots and their quarterback

443
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 1: that yet to be named here?

444
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:09,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going with Detroit. And I mean three and

445
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:13,159
Speaker 4: a half feels like such a great number to be

446
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 4: able to get in this spot. You know, Dan Campbell

447
00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:20,360
Speaker 4: just perpetual underdog fourteen and six against the spread as

448
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:24,879
Speaker 4: an underdog and road dogs off a loss since twenty eighteen.

449
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 4: And I'll just say the reason why I'm picking twenty

450
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:31,880
Speaker 4: and eighteen is because that's when PASPA was pulled back.

451
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 4: So I feel like that's when you started seeing just

452
00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:37,440
Speaker 4: more more dumb money, for lack of a better way

453
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,399
Speaker 4: of putting it, entering the sports betting market. So, like,

454
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,880
Speaker 4: what is the squarest thing that someone could do. They

455
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,959
Speaker 4: could bet, They could bet on someone at home, they

456
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:50,960
Speaker 4: could bet on a favorite, and like they could bet

457
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 4: against a team that was coming off of a loss.

458
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 4: So if you look at road underdogs off of a loss,

459
00:21:56,800 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 4: they're one seventy nine ten against this bread since twenty eighteen,

460
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,439
Speaker 4: and so like that's like that's a pretty large sample.

461
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 4: And so that's something going towards the Lions, and the

462
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:13,679
Speaker 4: spot in home favorites home favorites of no more of

463
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,600
Speaker 4: with a spread of no more than minus three for

464
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 4: twenty one four seventy one and fifty against the spread. So,

465
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 4: like the bigger picture, trends are kind of pointing in

466
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 4: opposite directions for these two teams and pointing towards the Lions.

467
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 4: And then you take into account the fact that we

468
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 4: really don't know who is starting for the Patriots in

469
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:36,920
Speaker 4: this spot. I do not think it is mac Jones,

470
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 4: even though he has been practicing on a limited basis.

471
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 4: You know, the severity of the injury that he suffered

472
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 4: in week three, the reporting was that expectations were for

473
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 4: him to be sidelined multiple weeks. I'm very skeptical he

474
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 4: starts in this spot. So that goes to back up

475
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 4: Brian Hoyer, who was concussed. So maybe he's able to start.

476
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 4: You know, quarterbacks is within the timeframe of when it's

477
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:05,640
Speaker 4: realistic to think that a guy has a real chance

478
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:08,199
Speaker 4: to come back, but maybe not. You never know with concussions.

479
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:13,439
Speaker 4: Hoyer I think is as bad as he might be.

480
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 4: In reality, he's still like an NFL veteran who knows

481
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 4: the system. ZAPPI. Maybe. I mean he feels like Mike White,

482
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 4: except without like without like the game of sexiness to

483
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 4: make you think he actually might be something. So I

484
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:36,119
Speaker 4: am very skeptical of whatever is happening with the quarterback

485
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 4: situation for the Patriots, and then just big pictures. Stepping

486
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 4: away from that, this Lion's rush offense against the Patriots

487
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 4: rush defense, I think is going to just destroy. Even

488
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 4: even though there's no you know, number one running back

489
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 4: DeAndre Swift, I still think that they're going to run

490
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 4: the ball really well. The Patriots defense ranks number thirty

491
00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:00,640
Speaker 4: one in both rush DVOA and rush success rate. And

492
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 4: you have censer Frank rag Noow. He's dealing with a

493
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 4: foot injury, but I'm not really worried about that. He

494
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,360
Speaker 4: didn't practice yesterday, but that's kind of keeping in pattern

495
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 4: with his practice habits from last week when he played

496
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 4: and wasn't at all on the injury boards, so I'm

497
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,959
Speaker 4: not worried about him. You got left guard Jonah Jackson

498
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:21,119
Speaker 4: who's dealing with a finger injury, but he returned to

499
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 4: practice on Wednesday, which is a positive development, So he's

500
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 4: got a shot to play this week. And then on

501
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:28,959
Speaker 4: the other side, you have the Patriots. Last week, they

502
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 4: were without defensive tackle Lawrence Guy, who was dealing with

503
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:35,440
Speaker 4: the shoulder injury. He's one of their main interior run stoppers.

504
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,479
Speaker 4: He didn't practice at all last week. He didn't practice

505
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 4: on Wednesday, so I'm kind of skeptical that he's playing.

506
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:44,400
Speaker 4: In our Fantasy Pro's Unit power rankings, the Lions offensive

507
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 4: line has a massive edge over the Patriots defensive line.

508
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 4: We have them ranked number three, the Patriots defensive line

509
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,120
Speaker 4: at number twenty six, so significant edge, and I think

510
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 4: with that we're going to see the Lions just push

511
00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 4: the Patriots around and control the ball with their grand

512
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 4: their ground attack, and I think that keeps this game close.

513
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 4: This number was Lions plus one in the look ahead market.

514
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 4: That's where I have it projected. Now, maybe the market

515
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 4: believes with the move from plus one to plus three

516
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:16,439
Speaker 4: plus three and a half, maybe the market beliefs that

517
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 4: mac Jones actually has a real shot to play this week.

518
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,400
Speaker 4: That to me is like the only explanation for why

519
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:25,200
Speaker 4: this line has moved to two and a half points

520
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 4: in the past week. But I'm skeptical that mac Jones plays,

521
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 4: So I am very happy to be taking the three

522
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 4: to three and a half currently out there.

523
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:37,120
Speaker 1: I'm looking around right here for some injury updates. Mac

524
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 1: Jones was on the practice field listed as a limited participant.

525
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 1: Hoyer definitely still in concussion protocol. I think tomorrow will

526
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,159
Speaker 1: be the day where we really figure it out and

527
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 1: see what's going to happen here. I am, of course

528
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:54,680
Speaker 1: always looking to the over in a Lions game now

529
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 1: because you combine their ability to play offense with their

530
00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:00,199
Speaker 1: complete lack of ability to play defense. I mean, you

531
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 1: turned the game with the Seattle Seahawks into a shootout.

532
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,679
Speaker 1: You're not stopping anybody right now. But Ben, what are

533
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 1: you thinking on this one?

534
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm definitely in agreement with Matt. I think, you know,

535
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 2: the line movement specifically just like doesn't add up whatsoever

536
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:17,199
Speaker 2: right now, both because you know it's very much in

537
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 2: question whether mac Jones is going to play, but also

538
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 2: you know, kind of what we just talked about with

539
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:25,360
Speaker 2: Tua and Teddy, right like, the we don't from PFS perspective,

540
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 2: we don't really you know, think mac Jones is all

541
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,199
Speaker 2: that much better than Brian Hoyer, so for him to

542
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 2: be worth you know, a full three points while also

543
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:36,879
Speaker 2: moving through you know, the most important number that is

544
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 2: there and betting on football and three actually, like it

545
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 2: just seems like a lot. The injury situation for Detroit

546
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 2: specifically is I would say a little concerned. Youate it

547
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 2: sounds like Deandrew Swift, like you said on the questional

548
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 2: side of doubtful. If Amon Ross Brown is back in,

549
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,920
Speaker 2: I think that's a pretty big boon to a Detroit

550
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,120
Speaker 2: passing offense that has been much better than expected.

551
00:26:57,600 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 1: I will cut you off real quick. I don't think

552
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 1: that he's playing this week.

553
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I doubt he plays, so he's questionable.

554
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 2: And then yeah, Josh Reynolds I think is also up

555
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 2: on the injury report. He's another guy that I think

556
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 2: is also you know, borderline what's going to happen with

557
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 2: him as well. So I am concerned about Detroit. But

558
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 2: I think the weakness from Detroit's defense especially is it

559
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:25,120
Speaker 2: doesn't really play into the strengths of the Patriots offense,

560
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 2: especially with Brian Horry at quarterback regularly, He's not going

561
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 2: to be able to, you know, beat even the worst

562
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 2: coverage unit in the NFL deep downfield consistently. We might

563
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 2: see one or two lucky plays, but I don't firmly

564
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 2: really believe in the Patriots past catching unit to kind

565
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 2: of make those contestant throws or contested catches downfield, So

566
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,439
Speaker 2: I'm concerned about that as well. So I think, you know,

567
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 2: plus three and a half, even with you know, Detroit's

568
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 2: skill position injury situation, I still think they're definitely the

569
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 2: correct side here.

570
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:56,640
Speaker 1: I'm just excited that for the first time since two

571
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 1: hundred PC, people might actually be afraid to play against

572
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 1: the Lions. So it's a it's a great time to

573
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 1: be alive right now, as we move on to our

574
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 1: next game, here the Bengals and the Ravens in a

575
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 1: showdown that at the preseason we were definitely all circling

576
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 1: the calendar for saying this was going to be a

577
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 1: good game. And then the Bengals came out and didn't

578
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 1: look so good through the first several weeks. But are

579
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 1: they back on track now? Ben we're seeing them in

580
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:25,719
Speaker 1: this spot here they are the Sunday night game and

581
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 1: right now Bengals getting three on the road in this

582
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 1: one three and a half If you can find it

583
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 1: around town, bet MGM and points Bett.

584
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm willing to be wrong on this one,

585
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 2: but you know, from PFF's perspective, we still the Bengals,

586
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 2: as you know, a better team overall and in basically

587
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 2: all of our power rankings metric better offense. I do

588
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 2: think that, you know, the Mark Jackson obviously builds up

589
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 2: the Ravens offense to a point where he is definitely

590
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 2: like an MVP type candidate, but you know, outside of

591
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 2: him and Mark Andrews, there's there's definitely concerns, I would say,

592
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 2: for them actually being productive. Now. You know, the Bengals

593
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 2: front has been pretty good from a pressure situation, so

594
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 2: I do think they're going to be at least somewhat

595
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:06,959
Speaker 2: successful if they can kind of hold their gaps in

596
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 2: keeping la Mar Jackson contained. And I do think that

597
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 2: they have, you know, enough going up against what I

598
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 2: would consider to be one of the worst secretaries in

599
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 2: the NFL right now, in the Baltimore Ravens really beat up.

600
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 2: It seems like, you know, the Week two game against

601
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 2: Miami kind of highlighted just how poor they're playing, especially

602
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:27,040
Speaker 2: on deep balls. I think that's you know, the one

603
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 2: real strength from Cincinnati that we haven't really seen Carrie

604
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 2: forward into twenty twenty two yet, So I think we're

605
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 2: going to see a few big chunk plays. I think

606
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 2: they're you know, going to be right there at the end.

607
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 2: So if I lose, you know, if I lose because

608
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 2: the Ravens score a touchdown, I think to win this

609
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 2: game out right, I'm definitely willing to take that because

610
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 2: I think in the majority of situations this game is

611
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 2: going to be settled by a field goal or less.

612
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,240
Speaker 2: So Bengals plus three and a half Sunday Night, I

613
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 2: think is you know, probably my favorite spread that you

614
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 2: can bet in Week five.

615
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 1: Matt, what are you thinking in this one?

616
00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 4: Yeah? I like this. I got at plus three and

617
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 4: a half. Definitely like it at three. Sorry, at three

618
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 4: and a half much more than three because of the

619
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 4: key number there. I haven't projected for two point twenty five,

620
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 4: and so I think to be able to get it

621
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 4: through the three. And you said that this was one

622
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 4: of your favorite bets, I was gonna ask this is

623
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 4: one that I am really eyeing for different contests, you

624
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 4: know where you have to pick five, especially the contests

625
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 4: have locked it in at plus three and a half.

626
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 4: I think there's there's significant value there, and so this

627
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 4: is one of the ones that I think I will

628
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:36,840
Speaker 4: probably have there. And you know you said earlier that pff.

629
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 4: Still with everything that you put into your your power ratings,

630
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 4: you guys still have Cincinnati a little bit ahead of Baltimore.

631
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 4: I have them at exactly the same spot in my

632
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:53,520
Speaker 4: power ratings. So yeah, I do think that you know, yeah, sure,

633
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 4: homefield advantage, but you have two divisional rivals. I think

634
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 4: that counts for something. I think it should make the

635
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 4: spread tighter. And so yeah, I think if you can

636
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 4: get this at three or above, you're getting pretty good

637
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 4: value there. Because this I don't think there should be

638
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 4: a field goal.

639
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 1: Guys, real quick, I want to talk to you about Sleeper.

640
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 1: Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions

641
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 1: of players. You probably already have a fantasy league on there.

642
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 1: My friends and I changed over this year and I

643
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 1: absolutely love it. It's a game changing product unlike anything

644
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 1: else in the industry, and now you can win on

645
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 1: Sleeper by playing their new over undergame. It's super simple. First,

646
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 1: in any sport, choose two or more players that you

647
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 1: like and pick the over under. For example, rushing yards

648
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 1: in a football game or number of points in a

649
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 1: basketball game. Then choose the amount of money you want

650
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 1: to enter into the contest. If you pick correctly, you

651
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,480
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652
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:47,920
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653
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,040
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654
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:52,719
Speaker 1: app where I can join my friends contests and play together.

655
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 1: It's got a built in group chat where I can

656
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 1: see and copy my group's picks with the tap of

657
00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:00,000
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658
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 1: it's itself. It's insanely fun to ride it out together.

659
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 1: So stop what you're doing and download Sleeper now to

660
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 1: play their new over undergame. Have fun with your friends

661
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 1: and make some money. Use the promo code Betting Pros

662
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 1: when you sign up for a Sleeper account today, and

663
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:17,640
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664
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 1: get you started. In terms of conditions apply see Sleeper

665
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 1: dot comforty tis Now, how about this next game?

666
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 2: Here?

667
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:28,840
Speaker 1: We got Carolina and San Francisco. Always a dicey proposition

668
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 1: when you've got West going east and SF coming off

669
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 1: of their big Monday night football win over the Rams

670
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:39,840
Speaker 1: minus six and a half over Baker and the Panthers here.

671
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 1: I mean, on the one hand, it's Matt Ruhle and

672
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 1: the Panthers. On the other hand, it's Kyle Shanahan and

673
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers as road favorites.

674
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 3: Man, where are you going here? Via Is?

675
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 1: As much as I want to be against you on

676
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 1: this one, I really don't think I can be.

677
00:32:56,360 --> 00:33:00,040
Speaker 4: I know, I hate myself for this. I mean, no,

678
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 4: I love to bet against Kyle Shahan anytime. He's a

679
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 4: favorite of one of the joys in my life. But

680
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 4: I don't want to do that with Baker Mayfield, or

681
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 4: with Matt Ruhle, or with their offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo

682
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 4: for that matter, None of those three guys I want

683
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 4: to have any part of. But I really do think

684
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 4: that this is the right side here. Kyle Shanahan sixteen

685
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 4: twenty six and one against the spread As a favorite,

686
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 4: I mean, there's just there's something about the way that

687
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 4: he calls games. He's great as an underdog, horrible as

688
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 4: a favorite. I think he just gets a little too

689
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 4: conservative with the play calling when they are in certain

690
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 4: game scripts, and that allows teams, you know, pretty routinely

691
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 4: to be able to get the spread. And for me,

692
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 4: this comes down to the Panthers rush defense against the

693
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 4: forty nine Ers rush offense. You know, again, the Panthers,

694
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:55,239
Speaker 4: they're easy to make fun of because of everything they

695
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:57,479
Speaker 4: have going on with the coaching staff and on the

696
00:33:57,520 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 4: offensive side of the ball, but you know, the defense

697
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 4: is actually pretty good. They're they're top twelve against both

698
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 4: the pass and the run in EPA. Their run defense especially,

699
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 4: I think should help them keep this contest close. The

700
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 4: forty nine Ers offense is number six in rush rate.

701
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 4: Like they want to run the ball. Their offense is

702
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,759
Speaker 4: heavily predicated on the running game, but they haven't been

703
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:21,480
Speaker 4: able to do it that well. They've been no better

704
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:24,960
Speaker 4: than number twenty in any of the key rushing efficiency metrics,

705
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 4: whether it's EPA success rate, DVOA. Right, They're just they're

706
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 4: not running as well as they have previously. And you know,

707
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 4: the forty nine ers running game, it's especially hampered with

708
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:37,000
Speaker 4: their injuries. They're without their number one running back, they're

709
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 4: without one of their key backup running backs, and Terry

710
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 4: and Davis Price they're without obviously like they're running quarterback

711
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:44,920
Speaker 4: in Trey lance. They're also missing their starting left tackle

712
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 4: Trent Williams, who is easily the best offensive lineman that

713
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 4: they have, and now they're probably going to be without

714
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 4: backup left tackle Colton mckibbittz, who seems very certain to

715
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 4: be missing this game with a knee injury. So you

716
00:34:57,719 --> 00:34:59,799
Speaker 4: put all that together, and the thing that the forty

717
00:34:59,880 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 4: nine want to do the best, I don't think they're

718
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:04,399
Speaker 4: really going to be able to do all that well

719
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,440
Speaker 4: in this game. This number was Panthers plus three in

720
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 4: the look ahead market just a week ago. Uh six

721
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 4: six and a half. Now, Like, I don't think enough

722
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:15,359
Speaker 4: has changed from then to now to justify the line

723
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 4: movement that we've seen. So I hate myself for doing it,

724
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 4: but I will be betting the Panthers at six and

725
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 4: a half.

726
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 1: Then what are you thinking here? Because you got me convinced, Matt,

727
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,359
Speaker 1: I mean I would. I will say this.

728
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,759
Speaker 2: I do think the Panthers are the only correct side

729
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:33,439
Speaker 2: to bet on into this game. I just can't bring

730
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:37,359
Speaker 2: myself to do it. I think I've said week zero,

731
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:39,240
Speaker 2: week one that they are the worst team in the NFL.

732
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 2: I think when you factor in, you know, the coaching situation,

733
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:45,840
Speaker 2: the quarterback situation, everything else, like They're just they're a

734
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 2: complete cluster. It seems like in so many situations on

735
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:51,840
Speaker 2: the flip side of that, like San Francisco has this weird,

736
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:55,920
Speaker 2: like almost Kyle Shanahan type tax in the betting market

737
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 2: where it seems like they are kind of overvaluing him

738
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 2: every single week. So I'll find myself on the other

739
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 2: side of San Francisco when they're playing it, and I

740
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:07,360
Speaker 2: think it's a similar, you know, mindset with New England

741
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 2: Patriots as well. I do think that, you know, for

742
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 2: some reason, the betting market does something with their coaching

743
00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 2: rankings or something else that kind of seems like those

744
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 2: two teams are always overvalued compared to what I'm looking at.

745
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:19,880
Speaker 2: I'm not quite sure how they do that or what

746
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 2: they're exactly looking at, but it's just a spot where

747
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 2: I think they probably overvalue those two guys specifically, And

748
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 2: so I'm going to find myself against San Francisco again.

749
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 2: Like you said, I think that Trent Williams injury has

750
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 2: kind of changed their offense right, forced George Kittle to

751
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 2: kind of stay in and at least Chip if not

752
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:39,720
Speaker 2: you know, past block to the point where they aren't

753
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 2: really getting to him out in as many routes as

754
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 2: he should be. So that kind of forces, you know,

755
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:47,399
Speaker 2: Deebo Samuel to be a pretty big playmaker after the catch,

756
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 2: and that worked out well in their Los Angeles Rams game.

757
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 2: But I don't really think it's a sustainable, long term

758
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 2: effective offense. So if I was betting a game, or

759
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 2: if I was betting the side on this, I would

760
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:00,839
Speaker 2: definitely be on the Panthers. But I just can't bring

761
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 2: myself to be on that side with Matt Rule anytime

762
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 2: soon here. So I'm waiting for, you know, the coaching

763
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 2: firing chair or something that happen before I can really

764
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:13,759
Speaker 2: get on board with Carolina reviving anything for the twenty

765
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 2: twenty two season.

766
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:17,879
Speaker 1: I'm sure there are plenty of Calcutta Carolina owners who

767
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:20,399
Speaker 1: are very much banking on just that to get that

768
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 1: first coach fired bonus. But this next game that we

769
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 1: have up here, the Cardinals going up against the Eagles.

770
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 1: We got the Eagles laying five and a half right

771
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 1: now on the road in Arizona against Cliff Kingsbury. Ben,

772
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:39,760
Speaker 1: I need you to tell me here what is PFF seeing?

773
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:41,320
Speaker 1: Are the Birds real?

774
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:44,359
Speaker 2: I mean, I think the Eagles very much are for real.

775
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 2: I think if you're you know, trying to rank powering

776
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:49,920
Speaker 2: teams right now, mainly based on twenty twenty two performance,

777
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 2: it's it's kind of the Bills, but even their jury situation,

778
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:55,320
Speaker 2: I would say, knock them down a little bit. And

779
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:57,399
Speaker 2: then it's really the Philadelphia Eagles. You know, heading into

780
00:37:57,440 --> 00:37:59,760
Speaker 2: the season, I would say, you know, two through fifty

781
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 2: three or whatever. On Philadelphia side, we're probably the best

782
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 2: that you could find. Right, offensive line, best best in

783
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,520
Speaker 2: the NFL, you know, either secondary, I would say it

784
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 2: has played better than expected. I think Darius Slay has

785
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:15,680
Speaker 2: at point's been you know, a shutdown type cornerback at

786
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:17,560
Speaker 2: the NFL level. It seems like he is, you know,

787
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 2: finally really doing that week in and week on. I

788
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:23,359
Speaker 2: think that helps them immensely. And then of course Jalen Hurts, right,

789
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 2: he was probably the one question mark for Philadelphia. I

790
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:29,759
Speaker 2: would say, no matter how high your expectations were in

791
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, he's probably exceeded those already, just based

792
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:34,960
Speaker 2: on the fact that he's doing it by delivering the

793
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:38,880
Speaker 2: football downfield accurately to his playmakers and they're you know,

794
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 2: winning at the top of routes. And I do think that,

795
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 2: you know, there was probably a consideration that he could

796
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 2: do it rushing the football a lot, taking off on

797
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 2: some of these you know, broken down type plays. But

798
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:50,920
Speaker 2: the thing that's impressed me in most is his ability

799
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 2: and his willingness to continue looking downfield even when he

800
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 2: kind of breaks contained breaks out of the pocket, and

801
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 2: those have kind of been, you know, some of their

802
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:00,279
Speaker 2: biggest chunk plays of the season. So I think if

803
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 2: that continues, you know, they're going to be really hard out.

804
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:06,920
Speaker 2: But in saying all that, I am on the Cardinals

805
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 2: side once again. I think they're a team that I'm

806
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 2: back basically for the last three weeks. I don't really

807
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 2: feel overly confident about that particular you know idea, but

808
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:19,360
Speaker 2: I think, you know, the Cardinals were kind of a

809
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 2: team that was just, you know, much maligned. I would

810
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 2: say in the off season the Kyler Murray situation. Does

811
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 2: he study plays Cliff Kingsbury. I think everyone you know

812
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,399
Speaker 2: at this point is pretty wise to you know, how

813
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 2: in some ways defective he is as a head coach.

814
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,799
Speaker 2: But I still think that you know, with where this

815
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:40,239
Speaker 2: where this number has moved home dog all things considered,

816
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 2: I would take Cardinals plus five and a half, and

817
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 2: it there's a spot that I'm betting and probably locking

818
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 2: into some of those pick up contests as well.

819
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:51,120
Speaker 1: Matt, what are you thinking here in this one? Are

820
00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 1: you going with the Eagles or are you taking Arizona?

821
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:55,759
Speaker 1: We do have three more weeks before the new.

822
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 3: Call of duty.

823
00:39:56,719 --> 00:39:59,120
Speaker 4: I know it's it's a great bird matchup that we

824
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 4: have here, and this line has actually moved to to

825
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:04,880
Speaker 4: five at a couple of books, until you know, maybe

826
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 4: there's still some lingering value there in the five and

827
00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 4: a half that we see. But yeah, I mean, it's

828
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 4: just it's a disgusting slate for me, I think in general,

829
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:16,319
Speaker 4: and I'm on a whole bunch of underdogs that I

830
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 4: really don't want to be on. But you know, I'm

831
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:21,280
Speaker 4: just kind of betting the numbers here and I'm going

832
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 4: with the Cardinals. Cliff Kingsbury horrible as a head coach.

833
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 4: Horrible is a favorite, but pretty good as an underdog

834
00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 4: twenty nine and two against the spread as an underdog

835
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:35,359
Speaker 4: and on the money line uh sixteen fourteen and one

836
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 4: as an underdog, which is good for a forty three

837
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:40,920
Speaker 4: point six percent return on investment. Like he's he has

838
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 4: been good in this spot. And you know, maybe it's

839
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:46,080
Speaker 4: not so much him. It's probably not so much him.

840
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:49,319
Speaker 4: It's probably just hey, Kyler, go do something. But I

841
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 4: do think in this game, even though it's a it's

842
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 4: a tough matchup. And I have been impressed by the

843
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 4: Eagles defense, their secondary in particular, but they haven't been

844
00:40:57,520 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 4: that good un rushed defense. And you know, the car

845
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 4: again something of a joke. They're horizontal raid passing attack,

846
00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:07,200
Speaker 4: but their running game has always been pretty good. You know,

847
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 4: I think it's just something of a function of how

848
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:12,040
Speaker 4: they play their offense. They force defenses to spread out,

849
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:15,360
Speaker 4: and the Eagles defense, you know, even though they tried

850
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:19,360
Speaker 4: to make additions this offseason to bolster the run defense,

851
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:22,799
Speaker 4: you know, defensive tackle Jordan Davis, through the draft, they

852
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:27,879
Speaker 4: signed in free agency, edge Hassan Reddick, linebacker Becazeer White,

853
00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:30,759
Speaker 4: and free agency they drafted linebacker na Kobe Dean. They've

854
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 4: they've made moves to try to improve against the run.

855
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:38,279
Speaker 4: It still hasn't done anything right. The Cardinals they have

856
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:42,120
Speaker 4: outperformed the Eagles defense in every key rushing efficiency metric.

857
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 4: And you know, and none of these rushing efficiency metrics

858
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:48,279
Speaker 4: is the Eagles defense in the top twenty. So if

859
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:51,440
Speaker 4: a home team can run the ball with success, it

860
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 4: has a good chance to cover, whether it's a favorite

861
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,839
Speaker 4: or an underdog. And in the offseason market we talked

862
00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 4: about this on the Tuesday Show with Drew Denzik and

863
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 4: the offense season market, this line was Cardinals minus two

864
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:07,840
Speaker 4: and a half. I mean, yes, they have underperformed expectations

865
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:10,920
Speaker 4: to open the year and the Eagles have outperformed, but

866
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 4: not enough for this line to move eight points in

867
00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 4: just four games. So again, hate myself for doing it.

868
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:20,960
Speaker 4: I will be taking the Cardinals at plus five and

869
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 4: a half.

870
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:24,760
Speaker 1: The last game that we have here on the slate

871
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 1: that we want to talk about right now. The autumn

872
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,840
Speaker 1: wind may be a pirate, but the Raiders head into

873
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:34,800
Speaker 1: Kansas City this weekend to seven point dogs in this one.

874
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 1: An old boy, it's Monday night football in Kansas City.

875
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 1: You got the Chiefs buzzing on all cylinders right now.

876
00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 1: I don't know. On the one side, you have the

877
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:48,319
Speaker 1: fact that the Raiders do always like to play this

878
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 1: team tough, and you do have the fact that we

879
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:53,719
Speaker 1: have plenty of times before seeing the Chiefs look absolutely

880
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 1: invincible one week and then come out and lay an

881
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 1: egg the next But Matt, where are you going in

882
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:01,799
Speaker 1: this one? Are you taking the Chiefs and laying the

883
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 1: points or are you riding with the Raiders?

884
00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 4: Yeah? I will be very square, very fishy here. Just

885
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 4: tell me it's Andy Reid playing a divisional opponent, Okay,

886
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 4: I'm going with the Chiefs. Or tell me it's Patrick

887
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:16,720
Speaker 4: Mahomes in primetime. Okay, I will bet on that side.

888
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:18,799
Speaker 4: Andy Reid is thirty three to twenty one and one

889
00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 4: against the spread with the Chiefs against divisional opponents. Patrick

890
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 4: Mahomes fourteen nine and one against the spread in primetime.

891
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 4: And for me, this really does come down to Patrick

892
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:33,359
Speaker 4: Mahomes going against a Raiders pass defense that I think

893
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:35,279
Speaker 4: is really bad. And for a team to cover a

894
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 4: big spread, it needs to be able to move the

895
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 4: ball through the air so they can score a lot

896
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:42,520
Speaker 4: of points quickly, and obviously with Patrick Mahomes the Chiefs

897
00:43:42,560 --> 00:43:45,359
Speaker 4: can do that. Even without Tyreek Hill, they're top eight

898
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 4: and all the key passing efficiency metrics this year, and

899
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 4: the Raiders defense very much is not. This is one

900
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 4: of the worst pass defense units in the league. In

901
00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:58,640
Speaker 4: our Fantasy Pros unit power rankings, I see Mahomes as

902
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:01,400
Speaker 4: having a massive edge over the Raiders defense and the

903
00:44:01,440 --> 00:44:04,640
Speaker 4: secondary in particular. I personally think Mahomes is still the

904
00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:06,840
Speaker 4: best quarterback in the league. But as a staff, we

905
00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:10,439
Speaker 4: have him ranked number two. Fine, he's top two. He's

906
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:12,919
Speaker 4: going against the defense that we have ranked number twenty

907
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 4: five and a secondary that we have ranked number twenty nine.

908
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:19,040
Speaker 4: This is just a massive edge advantage that he has,

909
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:21,640
Speaker 4: and I think the Chiefs will be able to score

910
00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:24,400
Speaker 4: at will. And I do not think that on the

911
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:28,200
Speaker 4: other side of this, the Raiders offense will be able

912
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:32,640
Speaker 4: to keep up enough against a Chiefs defense that isn't great,

913
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:34,080
Speaker 4: but is good enough.

914
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:38,799
Speaker 1: I'm curious here when you say he's not the number

915
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:41,440
Speaker 1: two quarterback on your rankings. That's behind Bailey's appy right,

916
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:47,240
Speaker 1: almost very close, very close. He's number three. All right, Ben,

917
00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:52,919
Speaker 1: what are you thinking in this game? I would say,

918
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:54,719
Speaker 1: you know, I'm pretty much with Matt, right. I think

919
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:57,720
Speaker 1: we don't really have a strong lean in one direction.

920
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 1: I don't think this is the rate, you know, even

921
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:01,480
Speaker 1: close to the.

922
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:04,320
Speaker 2: Same Raiders team that beat you know, the Chiefs outright basically,

923
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:06,520
Speaker 2: you know, was the last year two years, God, in

924
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:10,880
Speaker 2: my years run them? Yeah, so it's but it's you know,

925
00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:13,319
Speaker 2: obviously things have turned over with the Raiders. I would

926
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:16,799
Speaker 2: say Josh McDaniels has been very lackluster to start. It

927
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:20,360
Speaker 2: seems like they're just not really utilizing Devonte Adams in

928
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:22,839
Speaker 2: a role that I would have even expected to kind

929
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:25,840
Speaker 2: of start the season. So with that in disarray a

930
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 2: little bit, you know, I think this is probably closer

931
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 2: to like an eight point differential based on PFS power

932
00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 2: rankings numbers only. So if you fold in you know,

933
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:38,600
Speaker 2: a little bit of expectation for home field advantage as well,

934
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 2: you can easily see why the Chiefs might be the

935
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:44,239
Speaker 2: correct side in this particular matchup. But yeah, what it

936
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:45,799
Speaker 2: comes down to with me and the Chiefs is if

937
00:45:45,840 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 2: I knew when Andy Reid was motivated to call and

938
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 2: like unveil his you know, arsenal of creative plays and

939
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:55,360
Speaker 2: everything else, I would bet them every single week. The

940
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 2: problem is sometimes he he seems to almost you know,

941
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 2: not really willing or not really wanting to show or

942
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:03,839
Speaker 2: put his best plays on tape. But I do think

943
00:46:03,880 --> 00:46:07,600
Speaker 2: that you know, in primetime Division rival a spot where

944
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:10,000
Speaker 2: they can you know, kind of you know, very Las

945
00:46:10,080 --> 00:46:12,080
Speaker 2: Vegas Raiders for all intents and purposes and have no

946
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 2: shot of really winning or competing for a playoff spot,

947
00:46:15,080 --> 00:46:17,640
Speaker 2: much less the AFC West crowd. I think we're going

948
00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:19,839
Speaker 2: to see probably the best version of the kingsc cate

949
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 2: Chiefs one more week, so they're the only side I

950
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 2: would bet. I've not bet them yet, but I think

951
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 2: at minus seven or whatever, its Chiefs or Busts.

952
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:30,800
Speaker 1: In my opinion, if I have to lay seven points

953
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:33,480
Speaker 1: with any team in the league, especially this week, and

954
00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:36,880
Speaker 1: this slate has a lot of those options, it's got

955
00:46:37,080 --> 00:46:39,920
Speaker 1: to be the Chiefs. I mean, last week I was

956
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:43,360
Speaker 1: on the Raiders, but that was against Denver. This is

957
00:46:43,400 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 1: a whole different story here. And we're talking about this

958
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:50,760
Speaker 1: Chiefs team last year. They outscored the Raiders eighty nine

959
00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:55,640
Speaker 1: to twenty three in both of their matchups last season. Yeah,

960
00:46:55,719 --> 00:46:57,840
Speaker 1: the Raiders almost got the best of them the year before,

961
00:46:57,920 --> 00:47:02,400
Speaker 1: winning one and losing one by four. But this is

962
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:04,959
Speaker 1: just an I texted Matt right after the right after

963
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 1: the Raider game last week, and I just said Chiefs

964
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 1: by forty this week that this team is this is

965
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:14,440
Speaker 1: not going to be good for the Raiders in prime time. Now, guys,

966
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 1: before we get you out of here. I want to

967
00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:19,800
Speaker 1: ask the end of every show, if you had to

968
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:23,000
Speaker 1: pick a team for your Survivor pick this week, Chiefs

969
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:25,000
Speaker 1: do seem like an enticing option at home, but that

970
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 1: is a divisional game. I was looking at Jacksonville against Houston,

971
00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:33,760
Speaker 1: but Jacksonville has actually lost to Houston the last four

972
00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:36,760
Speaker 1: times that they've played. But this is a very different

973
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 1: Jags team here. Matt, what are you thinking? Would Jacksonville

974
00:47:40,040 --> 00:47:41,680
Speaker 1: be your pick or would you go somewhere else? And

975
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:42,240
Speaker 1: the Survivor.

976
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:46,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I always forget that you're going to mention this,

977
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 4: and so every time you start wrapping, Yeah, I'm sure

978
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 4: it is in the rundown. You know, it would have

979
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:55,879
Speaker 4: to be something that I actually pay attention to. But yes,

980
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:58,279
Speaker 4: you are right, it is in the rundown. And so

981
00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:00,879
Speaker 4: the team that immediately caught my eye was Jacksonville here

982
00:48:01,600 --> 00:48:04,799
Speaker 4: because you probably haven't used them yet. I mean, you

983
00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:07,879
Speaker 4: just want to pick on Houston when you have the opportunity,

984
00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:11,320
Speaker 4: and some of these other teams I think you probably

985
00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:15,920
Speaker 4: want to save. So I think Jacksonville is a decent

986
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:18,359
Speaker 4: play here. That said, this is coming from a guy

987
00:48:18,400 --> 00:48:22,000
Speaker 4: who died in Survivor in week one, so don't listen

988
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:23,120
Speaker 4: to anything. I have to say.

989
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:25,880
Speaker 1: I have two picks, and I use one to go

990
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:27,839
Speaker 1: with like a chalkier team where I'm using up all

991
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:29,680
Speaker 1: the good teams early, and one where I've been taking

992
00:48:29,719 --> 00:48:32,200
Speaker 1: a couple more risks. This feels like a good spot

993
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:33,759
Speaker 1: for Jacksonville on the risk is when are you going

994
00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 1: to use them again? But Ben, what do you think?

995
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 1: Do you have an alternative for us? Or are you

996
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:38,960
Speaker 1: saying ride with the Jags.

997
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:41,040
Speaker 2: I mean I would say if you didn't use the

998
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:44,719
Speaker 2: Vikings last week, I think this week is probably one

999
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 2: of the best options to take them. I don't have

1000
00:48:47,160 --> 00:48:49,279
Speaker 2: their full schedule in front of me, but seven and

1001
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:51,200
Speaker 2: a half point favorites at home. I know you're backing

1002
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:55,040
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins after you know, long traveled everything else, but

1003
00:48:56,040 --> 00:48:57,840
Speaker 2: I think they're a pretty good spot. I don't know

1004
00:48:57,880 --> 00:49:00,920
Speaker 2: if you're gonna feel, you know, any more carveord picking

1005
00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:03,080
Speaker 2: them at any other point in time. So I would

1006
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 2: say the Vikings might be an ulterior option if you

1007
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:07,200
Speaker 2: don't want to, you know, use up one of the

1008
00:49:07,200 --> 00:49:09,720
Speaker 2: best teams in the NFL or the Jacksonville Jake. Whereas

1009
00:49:09,719 --> 00:49:11,839
Speaker 2: at the stage, well, there we go.

1010
00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:14,000
Speaker 1: That's going to do it for us here today, Ben,

1011
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:15,920
Speaker 1: Where can people find you and all the great your

1012
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:18,000
Speaker 1: work you're doing around the internet and for PFF.

1013
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely. So PFF does have a you know, new

1014
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:23,840
Speaker 2: mobile app that's still i think technically in Beata or whatever.

1015
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:26,760
Speaker 2: You can download that if you're an iPhone user within

1016
00:49:26,880 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 2: the continent or within the United States I shouldn't say

1017
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:31,279
Speaker 2: content of the United States. So you can definitely check

1018
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:33,600
Speaker 2: that out. Check me out at PFF Underscore Ben Brown

1019
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:39,239
Speaker 2: on Twitter. I'm also somewhat infrequently on TikTok, but trying

1020
00:49:39,239 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 2: to step my game up a little bit more, so

1021
00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:43,319
Speaker 2: you can follow me on there as well, same user name,

1022
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:45,720
Speaker 2: and yeah, you know, I'd love to, you know, connect

1023
00:49:45,719 --> 00:49:48,280
Speaker 2: with some users where people that listened to this podcast

1024
00:49:48,280 --> 00:49:51,320
Speaker 2: if they have any feedback specifically about PFF products or

1025
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 2: tools or anything you want to see, definitely hit me

1026
00:49:53,719 --> 00:49:54,600
Speaker 2: up from the DMS for.

1027
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:57,839
Speaker 1: Sure, Matt Matt is going to do it for us

1028
00:49:57,920 --> 00:50:03,400
Speaker 1: one more time here, Ben Brown at PFF Underscore.

1029
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 2: Ben Brown, Ben Brown, Ben bro There's way too many

1030
00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:09,240
Speaker 2: bends out there for me to get the PFF Underscore

1031
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:11,520
Speaker 2: Ben Moniker or whatever.

1032
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:14,120
Speaker 3: It is, I'm rolling with the last name as well.

1033
00:50:15,280 --> 00:50:17,359
Speaker 1: And of course you can find Matt on Twitter at

1034
00:50:17,360 --> 00:50:19,719
Speaker 1: Matt f the Oracle, catch me at TV at work,

1035
00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:21,840
Speaker 1: and don't forget head on over to Betting Pros today

1036
00:50:21,920 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 1: at betting Pros on any social media app if you

1037
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:26,399
Speaker 1: want to find them. Actually that's not true. They're betting

1038
00:50:26,440 --> 00:50:27,960
Speaker 1: Pros NFL on everywhere but Twitter.

1039
00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:29,200
Speaker 3: But still, you know what.

1040
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:32,080
Speaker 1: I'm talking about here. Go to Bettingpros dot com slash chat,

1041
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:35,760
Speaker 1: sign up for the Discord today, and guys, that's gonna

1042
00:50:35,760 --> 00:50:38,479
Speaker 1: do it. Best of luck this weekend, and let's cash

1043
00:50:38,520 --> 00:50:39,120
Speaker 1: some tickets.