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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent

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Speaker 2: coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about,

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Speaker 2: it just means the absolute world to have your support.

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Speaker 2: But enough with that, let's get to the show.

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Speaker 3: Good morning.

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Speaker 4: I was told to channel soccer's energy, so here I am.

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Speaker 5: I'm freaking out shouting four more love. Thank you dating Emily.

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Speaker 5: Great to have you this morning.

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Speaker 3: Glad to be here.

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Speaker 1: We have a fantastic show planned. Of course, big speech

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Speaker 1: from Joe Biden yesterday, uh laying out his view of

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Speaker 1: Biden really making his pitch, his election pitch to the

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Speaker 1: American people about what he has done for the economy

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Speaker 1: and making his case that we should keep it all

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Speaker 1: in his hands. We also have some interesting stuff happening

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Speaker 1: on the Republican side, especially this poll from NBC News

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Speaker 1: about the way that the Republican issue set polls with

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Speaker 1: Republicans versus how it polls with the general electorate. Which

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Speaker 1: of their issue Planks is actually strongest with the country

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Speaker 1: at large. Kind of interesting stuff. There lots going on

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Speaker 1: in Russia. Very hard to sort through exactly what is

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Speaker 1: happening right now. Is putin cracking down? Is he not

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Speaker 1: cracking down? Has he detained some of the people who

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Speaker 1: may have been in koots with progosion. Will sort through

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Speaker 1: that as best we can. Some new really interesting data

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Speaker 1: about Airbnb and how there's a huge sort of airbnb

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Speaker 1: crash going on right now. Is that going to have

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Speaker 1: implications for the broader housing market? Big question marks there,

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Speaker 1: and some interesting comments from our commander in chief getting

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Speaker 1: a little confused about what war we are currently involved with.

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Speaker 5: I have a look at AI sex spots.

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Speaker 1: Emily is taking a look at shean influencers and very

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Speaker 1: excited to have a panel in studio this morning to

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Speaker 1: debate the merits of affirmative action. This comes, of course,

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Speaker 1: as we are expecting the Supreme Court to rule, probably today,

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Speaker 1: to get that ruling about whether affirmative action is going

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Speaker 1: to state or go. The expectation is this going to go,

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Speaker 1: but listen, you never know. So that's what the plan is.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this sounds great, and we should start with President

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Speaker 4: Joe Biden. We've got two Biden blacks today because he's

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Speaker 4: been on a roll really. But he gave a huge

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Speaker 4: speech yesterday, long speech. He was in Chicago, and we

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Speaker 4: want to start with just this SoundBite from it so

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Speaker 4: you can get a little flavor of what he talked about.

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Speaker 6: There's a fundamental break. I'm the economic theory that is

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Speaker 6: failed America's middle class for decades now. It's called trickle

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Speaker 6: down economics. Fundamental economics, trickle down the idea was believes

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Speaker 6: that we should cut taxes for the wealthy and big corporations.

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Speaker 6: And I know something about big corporations. There's more corporations

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Speaker 6: and Delaware Incorporated than every other state and the Union combined.

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Speaker 6: I want them to do well, but I'm tired of

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Speaker 6: waiting for the trickle down. It doesn't come very quickly.

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Speaker 6: Not much trickle down in my dad's kitchen table growing up.

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Speaker 6: When I took office, the pandemic was raging and our

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Speaker 6: economy was reeling. Supply chains are broken, millions of people unemployed,

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Speaker 6: hundreds of thousands of small business on the verge of

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Speaker 6: clothing after so many had already closed, Literally hundreds of

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Speaker 6: thousands on the verge of closing.

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Speaker 7: Today, the US.

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Speaker 6: Has the highest economic growth rate, leading the world economies

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Speaker 6: since the pandemic, the highest in the world. As Dick said,

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Speaker 6: with his help, we've created thirteen point four million new jobs,

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Speaker 6: more jobs in two years than any president has ever

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Speaker 6: made in four and two. And folks, a small accident.

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Speaker 6: That's Bidenomics and action. Bidenomics is about economy from the

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Speaker 6: middle out to the bottom.

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Speaker 7: Up, not the top down.

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Speaker 1: So this was all about, you know, laying out his

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Speaker 1: economic case what he's calling Bidenomics, and you know, pointing

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Speaker 1: to the low unemployment rate, the number of jobs created,

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Speaker 1: et cetera, to say, hey, I've done a great job

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Speaker 1: with the economy.

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Speaker 5: That's why you should re elect me.

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Speaker 1: I have a lot of thoughts on this, but first

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Speaker 1: let me go through some of the data, because listen,

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Speaker 1: in fairness, the economic data, I think it's fair to

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Speaker 1: say it's premixed. It's like a very strange time in

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Speaker 1: terms of the economy. On the one hand, unemployment is

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Speaker 1: extremely low. Put this up on the screen. You know,

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Speaker 1: there was a sort of natural recovery of course after

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Speaker 1: the pandemic, when things open back up, so that makes sense.

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Speaker 1: There were also overt recovery efforts, many of which appear

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Speaker 1: to have been quite successful. And so we have a

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Speaker 1: quite low historic unemployment rate, which obviously is an important

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Speaker 1: metric and one that the White.

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Speaker 5: House likes to tout. You also have, and this is.

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Speaker 1: Maybe the most interesting one to me. Put this next

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Speaker 1: one up on the screen. You actually have inequality for

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Speaker 1: the first time in my life, lessening because you've had

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Speaker 1: the rich taking a bit of a haircut post COVID.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they amassed incredible wealth during the pandemic, they've

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Speaker 1: taken a bit of a haircut post COVID. And you

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Speaker 1: have the lowest wage workers who, because of the tight

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Speaker 1: labor market, because of the very low unemployment rate, they

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Speaker 1: have actually had wage gains at the bottom end of

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Speaker 1: the spectrum that have been in excess at times even

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Speaker 1: of inflation. So you have workers at the lowest end

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Speaker 1: of the wage spectrum actually doing the best in this

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Speaker 1: economy right now. Not that it's nearly enough. And let's

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Speaker 1: get to the other side of this. So the next

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Speaker 1: piece of information that makes things complicated, to say the least.

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Speaker 5: Is that inflation has been quite high.

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Speaker 1: Put this up on the screen, and obviously, for most

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Speaker 1: workers that has meant that they have been getting a

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Speaker 1: paycheck cut every single month. You know, they go to

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Speaker 1: the grocery store, they see the price of goods going

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Speaker 1: up and up, the amount that they were making their

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Speaker 1: paycheck not going nearly as far more and more difficulty

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Speaker 1: trying to you know, make rent or make a housing

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Speaker 1: payment at the end of the month. You have housing

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Speaker 1: costs that have been going up for years and years,

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Speaker 1: and even now they haven't come down. But meanwhile you've

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Speaker 1: got you know, fed interest rate hikes that have made

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Speaker 1: housing more affordable literally than ever before. So a lot

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Speaker 1: to also weigh on American families and American workers, and

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Speaker 1: that is perhaps why put this up on the screen.

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Speaker 5: In spite of all of.

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Speaker 1: The happy talk from the Biden administration about how great

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Speaker 1: the economy is, this is probably the most important metric.

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Speaker 5: Only one in three approve of.

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Speaker 1: Biden's handling of the economy amid Bidenomics push. They say,

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Speaker 1: this is according to the latest pulling, you even have

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Speaker 1: some softness among Democrats in terms of how they view

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Speaker 1: Biden's handling of the economy. Overall, seventy two percent of

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Speaker 1: Democrats approve of Biden's job performance, but only sixty percent

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Speaker 1: approve of his handling of the economy. So you know,

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Speaker 1: he wants to sell that, hey, things are great, I've

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Speaker 1: done a great job. That's why you should put me

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Speaker 1: back in office. But Emily, the American people by and

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Speaker 1: large to not agree.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and it just doesn't work when you have inflation

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Speaker 4: still at the level because everyone's earnings increasing whatever, it's

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Speaker 4: all getting eaten away at And that's one of the

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Speaker 4: biggest problems for Biden.

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Speaker 3: He passed a bill signature piece of legislation.

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Speaker 4: Called the Inflation Reduction Act that was always as a

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Speaker 4: title somewhat laughable and almost like the Apex of Washington branding.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, in fairness, that was like Mansion who wanted

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Speaker 1: that branding flapped on it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's always good to remember that that was Joe

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Speaker 4: Manngen special. But that said, they did accept it and

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Speaker 4: actually really touted it and leaned into the Inflation Reduction

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Speaker 4: Act branding. And that's a in people's memories, that's in.

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Speaker 3: The voter, the voter's memories.

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Speaker 4: And so when you see people are experiencing this economy

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Speaker 4: very unevenly, so where inflation in the basket of goods

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Speaker 4: is hitting if you're at the lower end of the

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Speaker 4: income spectrum. That's hitting you pretty hard in ways, it's

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Speaker 4: not hitting people at the upper end of it. And

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Speaker 4: so that's a big, big, big problem for Joe Biden

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Speaker 4: that I just I mean.

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Speaker 3: It is going down.

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Speaker 4: So maybe you know, inflation is going down, but not evenly.

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Speaker 4: Not everything in inflation is going hos and causes us

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Speaker 4: to show no sign of stopping car prices.

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Speaker 3: I mean, there's been some slowing.

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Speaker 4: News cars, but like it's just it's really uneven. And

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Speaker 4: Biden is not in a position to say in the

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Speaker 4: next however months until the election, like a year and

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Speaker 4: a half for the election, we're just.

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Speaker 3: Going to be in a great place again.

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Speaker 1: Well, Democrats have this constant instinct that if the American people,

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Speaker 1: you know, aren't giving him high marks on the economy,

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Speaker 1: it's not because there's anything the administration did wrong. It's

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Speaker 1: because we just haven't gotten our message out yet. But

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Speaker 1: they just don't really get how great we actually are

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Speaker 1: and how great their lives are actually because of the

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Speaker 1: policies that we've implemented. Whereas you know, I think normal

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Speaker 1: people in their everyday lives, looking at their paychecks, looking

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Speaker 1: at how farge it's getting them looking at their costs,

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Speaker 1: probably in a better position to understand their economic reality

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Speaker 1: than you know, the president sitting in the White House.

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Speaker 5: So I do think that.

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Speaker 1: This pitch it just falls flat at this point because

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Speaker 1: it's not what people are experiencing in their day to

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Speaker 1: day lives. And I think if he is going to

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Speaker 1: lean into this direction, I think it's a very different,

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Speaker 1: difficult political case.

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Speaker 5: To make, especially when it's not like last time. When

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Speaker 5: he was running.

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Speaker 1: You know, there wasn't a lot of content. There weren't

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Speaker 1: a lot of policy promises, but there was a little

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Speaker 1: bit of something on the economic side, and there was

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Speaker 1: an expectation that you would get another round of checks.

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Speaker 1: That became obviously really critical in terms of the Georgia elections.

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Speaker 1: That is very likely why Democrats were able to win

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Speaker 1: a majority in the Senate, because they had this really

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Speaker 1: clear promise of hey, if you vote for us, you

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Speaker 1: are going to get a check in the mail that

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Speaker 1: is going to help you out a lot. By the way,

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Speaker 1: those checks did help a lot, and some of the

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Speaker 1: other pieces that were in that legislation, that first recovery legislation,

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Speaker 1: including the child tax Crew, it is probably one of

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Speaker 1: the most successful policies in recent history.

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Speaker 5: Yet I think part of why people feel.

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Speaker 1: The way they do about the economy is not just

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Speaker 1: that inflation has been high, eating into their paychecks, etc.

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Speaker 1: But also because you had all of those programs that

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Speaker 1: were originally instituted that genuinely help people, that bolstered their

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Speaker 1: savings account, that gave him a little bit a wiggle room,

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Speaker 1: et cetera. All of those have now been stripped away.

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Speaker 1: You've got student loan payments restarting, You've got any pandemic.

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Speaker 1: Aid program has been rolled back, and so things that

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Speaker 1: people used to have access to you like child tax credit,

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Speaker 1: those are gone, and they're really starting to feel the pain.

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Speaker 1: I do want to say something that will be perhaps controversial,

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Speaker 1: which is that I actually do think that Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: has been the best economic policy president of my lifetime.

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Speaker 5: Now let me say, oh.

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Speaker 1: That's a really low bar, but he is the first

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Speaker 1: in my lifetime who has broken at all with the

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Speaker 1: neoliberal consensus that starts in the Reagan era, that is

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Speaker 1: picked up and affirmed by the Clinton era that Obama

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Speaker 1: sort of pretended like he might break from that, he

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Speaker 1: ends up being just doubling down on it. Biden has

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Speaker 1: at least tinkered around the edges of industrial policy. For

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Speaker 1: one of you know, even the student loan debt cancelations.

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Speaker 1: The Supreme Court is probably going to say because partly

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Speaker 1: because the Biden administration didn't do a great job legally

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Speaker 1: justifying it, but they're probably going to strike it down.

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Speaker 5: But that is a real break with the neoliberal era.

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Speaker 1: Saying hey, we're going to do overt debt cancelation like

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Speaker 1: that would be unheard of, unthought of in the Obama administration,

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Speaker 1: in the Clinton administration, et cetera. Some of the programs,

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Speaker 1: as I mentioned, like child tax credit. Truly, if you

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Speaker 1: look at the numbers on child programming, this was a

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Speaker 1: wildly effective program. The problem with it is that they

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Speaker 1: didn't actually codify it permanently. They assumed that they would

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Speaker 1: be able to put political pressure to keep it going,

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Speaker 1: or perhaps they just didn't really care, and so that

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Speaker 1: goes by the wayside. So there are a few things

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Speaker 1: here that you can point to to say, yeah, I

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Speaker 1: do actually think his economic policy, especially at the beginning

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Speaker 1: of his administration, was better than Obama. But again, it's

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Speaker 1: so wildly inadequate for after you've had forty years of

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Speaker 1: wage at least stagnation, probably decline after you've had decades

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Speaker 1: and debat decades of neoliberalism, which is really pushed up

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Speaker 1: the cost of health care, the cost of education, the

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Speaker 1: cost of housing, made having a basic middle class life

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Speaker 1: basically unobtainable. That even if you're doing these little, like

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Speaker 1: tiny improvements around the edges, it's just woefully insufficient for

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Speaker 1: where people are right now.

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Speaker 4: There's this really interesting thing in Axios this morning from

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Speaker 4: economist Darren Grant, who has studied why in this era

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Speaker 4: people's sentiments about the economy are not attached to the

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Speaker 4: unemployment level, whereas historically that's been the case. He says,

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Speaker 4: if your wages are this is access paraphrasing, if your

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Speaker 4: wages are outpacing inflation, things look rosy. If not, well

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Speaker 4: that's quite dispiriting. Yes, no kidding. But he found this

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Speaker 4: time around that it's the real wages that are tethered

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Speaker 4: to people's sentiments about the economy, which is super super

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Speaker 4: interesting in that it's not always been the.

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Speaker 3: Case that that's what it used to be.

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Speaker 4: Like if you have a job, yeah, and your spirits

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Speaker 4: are going to be more tied to whether or not

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Speaker 4: you're pleased with the state of the economy with the president,

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Speaker 4: et cetera, et cetera. That's a really interesting finding, and

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Speaker 4: I think it does get to like big changes in

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Speaker 4: the economy post Obama, post Obama, post Trump, post pandemic,

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Speaker 4: where we are right now.

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Speaker 3: Why is that different?

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Speaker 4: I think probably because it's just been a dramatic change

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Speaker 4: in the way that our economy is organized.

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Speaker 1: Well, when the minimum wage has been stuck at seven

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Speaker 1: dollars and freaking twenty five cents for you know, multiple

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Speaker 1: decades now, it's the longest time we've ever gone without

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Speaker 1: hiking the minimum wage.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's no longer enough to have a job.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of you know, do I have a

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Speaker 1: job that is going to enable me to afford anything,

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Speaker 1: to even come close to being able to afford like

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Speaker 1: just basic shelter and food. I mean, we talk about

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Speaker 1: homelessness and you know the rise in that and a

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Speaker 1: lot of cities across the country that comes right down

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Speaker 1: to just housing costs. There is no city in America

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Speaker 1: where you can afford a one bedroom apartment. We're not

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Speaker 1: talking about living largeyear a one bedroom apartment on a

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Speaker 1: full time minimum wage job. So yeah, it's not enough

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Speaker 1: to look and say, oh, the unemployment rate is low.

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Speaker 1: You have to say not just do I have a job?

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Speaker 1: Is it a good job? Is it a job where

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Speaker 1: I have healthcare? Is it a job where I have

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Speaker 1: some sort of stability, where I have some sort of

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Speaker 1: predictability in terms of my schedule. And this is why, Emily,

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Speaker 1: that you've seen such a rise in interest and support,

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Speaker 1: by the way, historic support for the labor movement, because

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Speaker 1: there is this awareness. I think Chris Mall's who's the

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Speaker 1: president of Amazon labor Union, he said it, well, he's like,

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Speaker 1: we're not quitting our job, saying we are going to

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Speaker 1: organize at.

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Speaker 5: Our jobs and make these good jobs.

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Speaker 8: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: You see this with the Starbucks baristas who are saying, like, listen,

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Speaker 1: it's not enough that you're going to like virtue signal

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Speaker 1: to me, which they're like barely not even doing anymore

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Speaker 1: apparently with this whole pride flat. But it's not enough

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Speaker 1: you're going to virtue signal to me. I actually want

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Speaker 1: this to be a good job, and I'm willing to

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Speaker 1: take some risk to do it because since the labor

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Speaker 1: market is tight, like your low wage job is not

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Speaker 1: that important to me, I can go somewhere else and

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Speaker 1: get another low wage job, but fighting to get a

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Speaker 1: job that will actually allow me to sustain any kind

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Speaker 1: of life, Yeah, that's something that is worth taking the

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Speaker 1: risk for.

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Speaker 8: You know.

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Speaker 4: That's the Starbucks unionization is one of the more interesting

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Speaker 4: ones period, because Starbucks actually had pretty good benefits. You know,

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Speaker 4: you got healthcare at Starbucks, they would pay for some

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Speaker 4: of your college, and it still wasn't enough because in

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Speaker 4: so many cases, it was scheduling, it was the bathroom policy,

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Speaker 4: it was all of these different things that contributed to

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Speaker 4: a lifestyle that wasn't what people expected from their employer.

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Speaker 4: And I think that's exactly what we're talking about, like

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Speaker 4: why are these things changing, Because now it's not the same.

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Speaker 3: You're not able to have a good paying job.

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Speaker 4: And affordable health care and all of these other things

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Speaker 4: in so many different parts of the economy.

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Speaker 3: It's just not normal.

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Speaker 4: It's not healthy for society, and it's it's a huge

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Speaker 4: difference from the past. And so it's expectations versus reality,

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Speaker 4: and when reality isn't delivering, then yeah, you're probably going

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Speaker 4: to have a different outlook. Even if you have a job,

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Speaker 4: even if unemployment is fairly low, historically, it's just going

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Speaker 4: to be different, and I'm glad people are picking up

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Speaker 4: on them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So I think the Bidenomics pitch is going to

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Speaker 1: fall flat because it is dissonant with what people are

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Speaker 1: experiencing in their real lives. That doesn't mean that I

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Speaker 1: think Joe Biden is going to lose the election. And

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Speaker 1: that's so sad about our current political state. Put us

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Speaker 1: up on the screen. So in a new NBC News poll,

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Speaker 1: Biden's national approve rating is about forty three percent. That's

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Speaker 1: about where it's been more or less. Another ten percent

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Speaker 1: of voters somewhat disapprove of him. And what Sahil Kapor

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Speaker 1: here says is how did those ten percent feel about

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Speaker 1: a Biden versus Trump race? Will have say they would

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Speaker 1: vote for Biden and thirty nine percent say that they

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Speaker 1: would vote for Trump.

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Speaker 5: That group, the lesser.

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Speaker 1: Of two evils voters, was really important in twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: was really important in twenty twenty two. They're basically the

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Speaker 1: group that prohibited the red wave from appearing, and will

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Speaker 1: be really important again in twenty twenty four because you're

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Speaker 1: very likely to have this Trump versus Biden matchup that

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Speaker 1: overwhelmingly majority of Americans do not want, would like to

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Speaker 1: have other choices, but because our democracy is so like

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Speaker 1: frail and broken, they're not going to get another choice, really,

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Speaker 1: and so they're stuck with these these two dudes that

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Speaker 1: they would really rather would move on and leave us

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Speaker 1: all alone. So who the people who don't like either

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Speaker 1: one of them vote for are going to be a

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Speaker 1: critical factor. And this is always emily what the Biden

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Speaker 1: people have thought. They have thought ron Klain after Emmanuel Macrome,

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Speaker 1: Yeah won Yes, while he had like thirty some percent

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Speaker 1: approval rating. Ron Klain, Joe Biden's former chief of staff,

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Speaker 1: tweeted out like, oh interesting, interesting that he was able

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Speaker 1: to pull that off not because people loved him, but

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Speaker 1: because they hated his opponent.

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Speaker 5: That has always been the play here. So to me,

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Speaker 5: it's just such a.

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Speaker 1: Sign of decay and so pathetic and so outrageous and

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Speaker 1: enraging two that you think, as Joe Biden and also

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Speaker 1: as Donald Trump, that you can run without really promising

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Speaker 1: anything to the American people on a material front, that

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Speaker 1: you can run without you know, just trying to trying

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Speaker 1: to bolster what you've done already in office, but without

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Speaker 1: offering any sort of affirmative agenda for the future.

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Speaker 5: I think that's a really sad state of affairs.

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Speaker 4: Frankly, you know, it's also how Donald Trump won because

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Speaker 4: people so detested Hill Clinton and so wanted her away

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Speaker 4: from the quarridors of power. And so I actually think

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Speaker 4: the signs of decay are abundantly obvious.

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Speaker 3: It's not just with Joe Biden, it's also with Donald Trump.

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Speaker 4: And when you're pitting in all likelihood, Donald Trump against

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Speaker 4: Joe Biden, just like we saw in twenty twenty, it's

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Speaker 4: an extremely pathetic state of affairs.

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Speaker 3: But it's the matchup that we deserve.

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Speaker 4: At this point, we've basically earned this, but you know

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Speaker 4: it's it's I shouldn't say we deserve it. It is the

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Speaker 4: one that we're getting, but people do deserve it exactly

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Speaker 4: better than that. Although to some extent, we have all

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Speaker 4: created this situation because we're all here.

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Speaker 3: But it's pretty bad.

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Speaker 5: It's prettymplicity.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, but no, I mean, in all honestly, I

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Speaker 4: think that's exactly right. And that's where enter Podsay, Bros,

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Speaker 4: You've got to see this clip because it's so First

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Speaker 4: of all, I think this is going to be a

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Speaker 4: huge narrative in the next year and a half before

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Speaker 4: the election, more than it was with the Jill Stein

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Speaker 4: Susan Sarandon line of argumentation from the sort of establishment left.

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Speaker 4: But also he just puts it in a way that

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Speaker 4: is so perfectly awful. Here.

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Speaker 3: You got to watch.

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Speaker 9: If the people who voted for Jill Stein, just Jill

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Speaker 9: Stein in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania had voted for Hillary instead,

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Speaker 9: Donald Trump would have never become president. That's it, right,

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Speaker 9: And so you know, I'm sure there's a lot of

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Speaker 9: Cornell West fans out there. You live in a swing state,

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Speaker 9: you vote for Cornell West, You're helping Trump become president.

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Speaker 7: That's it.

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Speaker 9: And you can say, oh, well, it's Joe Biden's fault

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Speaker 9: he did this or that. No, no, no, it's it's your decision.

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Speaker 9: You get to decide whether you want to help Donald

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Speaker 9: Trump become president or you don't. And if you want

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Speaker 9: to help him, then you should vote for Cornell West,

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Speaker 9: or you should vote for Joe Manchin and his No

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Speaker 9: Labels ticket, or you can vote for you know, RFK

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Speaker 9: Junior if he decides to run third party. But if

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Speaker 9: you don't want to help Trump become president, you gotta

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Speaker 9: vote for Joe Biden. That's it, very simple. Now, I

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Speaker 9: think messaging two voters who might actually make this decision

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Speaker 9: is probably a little different, I would say, because I.

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Speaker 5: Know chastising works.

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Speaker 1: Chastizing works probably different, does it, because I would say

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Speaker 1: history would show it does not work. And I mean,

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Speaker 1: I just got I'm having such twenty sixteen reducs right

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Speaker 1: now because it is the same thing all over again.

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Speaker 1: I mean, here you have the specter of Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: going out making this speech, and in fairness these comments

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Speaker 1: from the pod Saved Dudes was before this Biden speech,

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Speaker 1: but promising literally nothing right, not running on any sort

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Speaker 1: of affirmative agenda. It really is just like I'm not Trump,

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Speaker 1: and you got to keep me in here because you

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Speaker 1: got no other option. And they could spend their time

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Speaker 1: criticizing that, saying, listen, guys, if you want to win

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Speaker 1: people over, like you need to get out there and

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Speaker 1: you need to make the case to them, and you

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Speaker 1: need to you know, you got a lot of young

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Speaker 1: people who were excited about the Biden ministry, who actually

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Speaker 1: gave the high marks at the beginning of the administration,

437
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:54,879
Speaker 1: who are so disenchanted and so disgusted with especially the

438
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,679
Speaker 1: recent direction of the Biden administration. You know, you're going

439
00:20:57,720 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 1: to have to appeal to them if you want to

440
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:03,040
Speaker 1: be able to win. Instead, it's nope, if you don't

441
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 1: vote for Joe, you're a vote for Trump, and we're

442
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,320
Speaker 1: just going to shame and cajole you and hope that

443
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 1: that works out, because the Democratic Party can never fail.

444
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:13,479
Speaker 5: It can only ever be failed.

445
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:16,200
Speaker 4: Emily, it's amazing that put that people have put microphones

446
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 4: in front of their faces because they're constantly just saying

447
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 4: the quiet part out loud, and like they slip into

448
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 4: it sometimes and you notice, like when he was when

449
00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:25,000
Speaker 4: he sort of took a step back and he was like, no,

450
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 4: messaging to those people might be a little bit different,

451
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:30,439
Speaker 4: as though he's not talking to the public on his

452
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,560
Speaker 4: podcast in ways that are going to get clipped and disseminated.

453
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 4: He's a speechwriter for Obama, That's what Jon Favreau was like,

454
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 4: He's actually supposed to be persuasive, persuasive and argument arguing

455
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:43,159
Speaker 4: to a swath of the public that he understands. You know,

456
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 4: in order to persuade people, in order to stir their emotions,

457
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 4: you should understand them and clearly, they still do not

458
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,399
Speaker 4: understand that there are plenty of people in this country

459
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,119
Speaker 4: that say there is no significant difference between Joe Biden

460
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 4: and Donald Trump. If Joe Biden, if Donald Trump is

461
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,840
Speaker 4: tweeting crazy stuff, find it's not going to have me

462
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,760
Speaker 4: up in arms, you know, drinking my Starbucks, watching Morning

463
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,399
Speaker 4: Joe and freaking out with Mika and the gang.

464
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 3: It's just the same old stuff. I'm still going to be.

465
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 4: In this stupid job with student loan debt with you know,

466
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 4: it's like it doesn't change that much from one party

467
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 4: to the other. And that's fundamentally what they don't understand.

468
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:21,639
Speaker 4: Because he's trying to say, if you don't want Donald

469
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 4: Trump to be president, don't vote for Cornell West. Well,

470
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 4: you know what, there are a whole lot of Cornell

471
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 4: West voters or RFK junior voters or voters from Mary

472
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:31,199
Speaker 4: On Williamson who said this is the same on both sides.

473
00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 4: It doesn't matter to me if I get an establishment

474
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:37,239
Speaker 4: Democrat or an establishment Republican or Trump or Biden. I'm

475
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,679
Speaker 4: still going to be screwed by the system. Yeah, so

476
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 4: it doesn't matter. I don't care if Donald Trump is president.

477
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:44,640
Speaker 4: In the same way that I if it's a vote

478
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 4: for Biden or Donald Trump, it's just a horse a piece.

479
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, listen, to be fair, I don't agree

480
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:49,959
Speaker 5: with that.

481
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 3: I don't either.

482
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think there are a lot of people who

483
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:54,639
Speaker 1: view it that way, and I can't really blame him

484
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 1: for that, but I don't actually agree with that. The

485
00:22:56,400 --> 00:23:00,160
Speaker 1: reason that I ended up voting for Biden last time

486
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,439
Speaker 1: around was not because I was excited, not because I

487
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 1: didn't have a million issues with his past record and

488
00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:08,119
Speaker 1: expectations of what he would do in office. It was

489
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 1: a very simple one, which is that my core, you know,

490
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 1: core my politics is the labor movement. And Trump would

491
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 1: put a bunch of union busting goons in the National

492
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:16,680
Speaker 1: Relations Board.

493
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 5: Biden would put some people who at least.

494
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 1: Wouldn't like totally rig the scales against workers, and that is,

495
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,399
Speaker 1: in fact what happened. It's part of what did enable

496
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 1: the Starbucks union. So on that metric alone, I was

497
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,439
Speaker 1: sort of persuaded, like, all right, that you have to

498
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 1: at least lay the groundwork to enable a labor movement,

499
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 1: even as I have low expectations for Joe Biden. But

500
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,119
Speaker 1: as you said, like I can't really blame people for

501
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 1: holding that view. And with Democrats, they always think people

502
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:45,159
Speaker 1: just don't understand how great we are, you know, if

503
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 1: they just really got it, like if we just.

504
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 5: Came up with a new slogan like build back.

505
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 1: Better, and then they're really gonna they're really going to

506
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:53,879
Speaker 1: understand we're gonna win on a landslide if we just

507
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 1: like come up with a new slogan and like come

508
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 1: up with a great TV ad and pay our consultants

509
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 1: more to be able to win people over. And so

510
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:07,400
Speaker 1: all of the shaming, all of the criticism goes instead

511
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,640
Speaker 1: of to the people who are in power, who literally

512
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 1: hold the presidency and the Senate right now and damn

513
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 1: close to the House as well. Instead of holding them

514
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 1: to account, it's always just like, oh, what's wrong with

515
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:20,160
Speaker 1: the voters?

516
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 5: What you know, are the why or the voter?

517
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 1: Are they two sexists? Are they two racists? Are they

518
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,920
Speaker 1: too like dumb? They don't understand what we've done for them.

519
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:28,640
Speaker 1: They're so ungrateful. It's sure it's.

520
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 4: At these pawns that are seeing dumb memes and it's

521
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:32,880
Speaker 4: changing everybody's opinion.

522
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, perhaps you have Favreau, as you say, it was

523
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 1: an Obama speech writer, like Obama was great for Obama

524
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 1: in terms of politicians, but he was a disaster for

525
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,680
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party. I mean, the party has never recovered

526
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 1: from the thousand plus state legislative sies that they.

527
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 5: Lost under Obama.

528
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:51,160
Speaker 1: They've never recovered from all the governor's mansions that they

529
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 1: gave up. You know, ultimately, they gave up the House

530
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 1: and the Senate and then the presidency to Donald Trump.

531
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 1: Which it's amazing to me that there's never any self

532
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 1: reflection about, like, what did you do wrong that you

533
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 1: go from Barack Obama to Donald Trump? Here, There's never

534
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 1: any self reflection about that. There's never any self there's memory, man,

535
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 1: any criticism of Hillary Clinton, who is the most proximate

536
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 1: cause of why we ended up with Donald Trump in

537
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:15,440
Speaker 1: the White House instead, it's just like, oh, it's the

538
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:16,359
Speaker 1: Jill Stein voters.

539
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 5: They're the real problem.

540
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're the real problem.

541
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:21,159
Speaker 4: And continuously we hear that Democrats, like I don't know

542
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 4: a lot of like Hollywood folks whatever, are trying to

543
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 4: field Michelle Obama, which I think is really interesting because

544
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:27,640
Speaker 4: it's exactly what you're saying. They think she can win

545
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:31,159
Speaker 4: and that's literally all they care about Michelle.

546
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 1: Obama has never showed any interest in running for office.

547
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 1: And listen, I think you know, especially they're stuck with Joe.

548
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,760
Speaker 1: There's no other And so let's actually transition to there

549
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 1: was a new poll out of New Hampshire that was

550
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 1: kind of interesting, and you know, listen, anyone poll, you

551
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 1: should take it with a lot of grains assault.

552
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 5: But put this up on the screen.

553
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 1: Now, New Hampshire is really interesting because the Democrats, led

554
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 1: by Joe Biden and the DANC really screwed the state over.

555
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 1: Joe Biden did really poorly here last time around. I

556
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 1: don't know, he had like fourth fifth, it was. It

557
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 1: was abysmal, right, It was losing a like Amy Klobashar

558
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:08,399
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire, and so they wanted to put the

559
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 1: state later in the order. They wanted to push up

560
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 1: South Carolina, where he did really well, and so they

561
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:15,639
Speaker 1: did that, but they didn't really think it all through

562
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:17,680
Speaker 1: because New Hampshire actually has a law on the books

563
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:19,239
Speaker 1: that they have to go first in terms of their

564
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:21,400
Speaker 1: primary and the state is held by Republicans. So even

565
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 1: if the Democratic Party wanted to play ball and move things,

566
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 1: which they actually don't, but even if they did. They

567
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:29,679
Speaker 1: can't because the state has a Republican governor. So Joe

568
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:31,400
Speaker 1: Biden is not even going to be in the ballot

569
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire. So anyway, here's this latest New Hampshire poll.

570
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 1: It's got Biden at sixty eight percent, RFK Junior at

571
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:41,159
Speaker 1: nine percent, which is lower than where he's been in

572
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 1: other recent polls, and Marian Williamson at eight percent. And

573
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 1: you know, a lot has been made of this poll,

574
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 1: and I think people should maybe like cool their jets

575
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 1: on reading too much into one particular poll and the

576
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 1: fact that in particular RFK has dropped, you know, about

577
00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 1: ten points versus where we've seen him be in national polls,

578
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:02,280
Speaker 1: because these things are all over the place.

579
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 5: But it did raise a.

580
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 1: Question Emily that we were talking about, is he has

581
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:09,680
Speaker 1: really leaned into like I'm going to be the podcast candidate. Yeah,

582
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 1: I'm going to go on breaking points, which we really

583
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 1: appreciate a couple of times. You know, that's great. We

584
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 1: appreciated having that time with him. He went on with

585
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,439
Speaker 1: Joe Rogan. Obviously, he's done a ton of podcasts across

586
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:22,679
Speaker 1: the political spectrum, and the theory of the case is

587
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 1: that this is the new mainstream. This is where you

588
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 1: actually find people, This is where you actually reach people.

589
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:30,440
Speaker 1: This is where I can get my ideas out since

590
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 1: the mainstream media is shutting me out.

591
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 5: And I think in particular because.

592
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 1: The views that RFK holds and leans into, especially in

593
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 1: these podcast appearances, are really out of step. Frankly, just

594
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 1: by polling, whether you agree with him or not, with

595
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 1: where the Democratic Party base is. I don't think that

596
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 1: having so much this attention in the podcast tour doesn't

597
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:56,120
Speaker 1: appear to have aided him at the very least, even

598
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:57,359
Speaker 1: if we want to take this poll with a lot

599
00:27:57,359 --> 00:27:58,440
Speaker 1: of grains assault.

600
00:27:58,080 --> 00:27:59,400
Speaker 4: And you know, I just pulled up what real clear

601
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,640
Speaker 4: politics had here, and they have polls recently. We're actually

602
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 4: going to talk in the next block about a new

603
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 4: Wisconsin pole, but the Dems in the Wisconsin Pole it

604
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 4: has Biden forty nine, Kennedy nine, Williamson three. Pennsylvania a

605
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 4: Quinnipiac pole, Biden seventy one, Kennedy seventeen, Williamson five, So

606
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 4: Kennedy at seventeen in Pennsylvania, Kennedy at nine in Wisconsin.

607
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 4: There were some flash polls right after he announced his

608
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 4: candidacy where he did really have a sugar high that

609
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 4: seems to be coming down pretty clearly. We'll get more

610
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 4: of the next couple of weeks, but these poles are

611
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 4: an indication I think that it's not where it was

612
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 4: after his initial announcement.

613
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 3: And I think you're right.

614
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 4: The podcast candidacy is very different than a ground operation,

615
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 4: and I'm sure he knows that. I mean, his people

616
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 4: know that, but what people are seeing and that's a

617
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 4: really interesting thing too, that if you're running, for instance,

618
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 4: a podcast candidacy, immedia candidacy like Donald Trump brand, I

619
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 4: mean he at first had like no ground operation anywhere.

620
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 4: In twenty sixteen or twenty fifteen, he comes in and

621
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:02,719
Speaker 4: he's on media constantly, is on MSNBC, CNN, he's on

622
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 4: Fox right, and what people in New Hampshire are seeing.

623
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 3: Is Donald Trump. It actually didn't matter that he didn't

624
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 3: have a ground operation.

625
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:15,000
Speaker 4: So in some ways there's this interesting interplane now that like, actually,

626
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 4: if you do blanket national media, maybe you can get

627
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 4: away with having a different ground operation, but that probably

628
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 4: won't be the case for.

629
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 3: Anyone not named Donald Trump.

630
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 4: Yeah.

631
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 1: So I mean with RFK Junior, obviously, you know, I

632
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 1: have disagreements with him, on a number of policies, vaccines,

633
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 1: but even really probably more importantly you might have heard

634
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,479
Speaker 1: that even more importantly actually economics. I have very you know,

635
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:38,920
Speaker 1: different view of what needs to be done in terms

636
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 1: of the economy, in very different philosophy. But actually would

637
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 1: like it to be the case that you could run

638
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 1: this sort of podcast candidacy, that you can bypass the

639
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 1: mainstream process, that they're weakened enough that this would work

640
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 1: out for you. But I unfortunately just don't think that

641
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 1: we're there, especially on the Democratic side. And he has

642
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 1: an additional challenge in that. As I just said, I mean,

643
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 1: you know, I wrote a whole book that I think

644
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 1: had a lot of legitimacy to it criticizing Anthony Fauci,

645
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 1: But you have to acknowledge, like my views on Anthony

646
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 1: Fauci and RFK Junior's views on Anthony Fauci are wildly

647
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 1: different than the Democratic base.

648
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 5: You know, his views on Ukraine.

649
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 1: We're actually talking about a poll today where not just Democrats,

650
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 1: but actually overwhelmingly I don't think we should be providing

651
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 1: additional military aid to Ukraine. I think we should be

652
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 1: using that as leverage to get them to the negotiating table.

653
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 1: My views and RFK Junior's views are not in line

654
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 1: with the Democratic base, and it's something that you know,

655
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:32,239
Speaker 1: that's a key position that he really leans into. So

656
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 1: we also has this added challenge of actually, the more

657
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 1: that attention that he gets, the more that people know

658
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 1: him outside of being a Kennedy and a protest vote

659
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 1: against the president that they're really not excited about.

660
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 5: They're worried about his age, et cetera.

661
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 1: The more they get to know his actual views, the

662
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 1: more of an issue it.

663
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 5: May be for him.

664
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 1: So he may have the ironic situation Emily that actually

665
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 1: the more tension that he gets, the more of a

666
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 1: challenge that he has in the polls. I think there

667
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 1: are other candidates out there, the person on the Republic

668
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,719
Speaker 1: Cancide that is doing sort of a similar strategy as

669
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 1: vivek Rumswamy.

670
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, although he also has I mean.

671
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 1: He is on Fox News regularly as well, so he

672
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 1: does have mainstream media too. But he has really leaned

673
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 1: into this sort of like super online persona. His issue

674
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 1: set is the like super online, like podcasty issue set,

675
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 1: and it's been enough for him to get a lot

676
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 1: of attention. You know, we certainly got a base and

677
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 1: followers who are very excited about him and the issues that.

678
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 5: He talks about. But you know, is he gonna be

679
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 5: the Republican nominique?

680
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 4: No?

681
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 1: Is it going to work out for him in terms

682
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 1: of a national media profile and whatever he wants to

683
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 1: leverage that forward next to you know or potentially electrum

684
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 1: cabinet position. Yes, But unfortunately, I think there's still a

685
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 1: real limit to how far you can go if you're

686
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 1: just leaning into like the podcast route versus having any

687
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 1: sort of you know, ability to garner mainstream media attention.

688
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 4: I think the problem also is that it's very easy

689
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 4: to fall into this impenetrable bubble in the same way

690
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 4: that Hillary Clinton's team was clearly an impenetrable bubble and

691
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 4: sort of isolated and insulated from criticism and from the

692
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 4: outside world. If you're running a podcast cannondacy that might actually,

693
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 4: apart from just having a more tailored message to one

694
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:16,720
Speaker 4: particular crowd, you may also be insulating yourself from different voters,

695
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 4: touchgarters you need to, and the very you know our

696
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 4: via Jinior's Californian The very obvious example is somebody that

697
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 4: I really like, he'd tell you the same thing, probably

698
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:29,479
Speaker 4: Michael Schellenberger, who ran a natorial campaign not that long

699
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 4: ago and had so much conversation online around his candidacy,

700
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 4: was able to get some donors because of the media

701
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 4: attention he got, and it just didn't translate into votes

702
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 4: on the ground. And so I think that's an indication

703
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 4: if Bobby Kennedy has a name, obviously like that name

704
00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:50,720
Speaker 4: is hugely, hugely helpful in ways that are not necessarily

705
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 4: precedented in politics, just because of the place that his

706
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 4: uncle holds in the sort of public imagination and that

707
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 4: his father holds in the public imagination.

708
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 3: That said, all of this.

709
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 4: It may end up being, you know, not much more

710
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 4: than a splash. I will say, though, Marie Harp, just

711
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 4: as we're wrapping up here, she said recently, I promise

712
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 4: you that Kennedy is not going to get above twenty

713
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 4: percent any primary. I think it's way too early to

714
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,480
Speaker 4: make a determination on that, because while he may come

715
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 4: down from a sugar high here, he may also adapt

716
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 4: and say, yeah, our message has been a little bit narrow.

717
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 3: It has been sort of.

718
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 4: To this you know crowd of people that's you know,

719
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 4: read substack and watches podcasts, which are important voters but

720
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 4: not all voters, and you know, not necessarily having common

721
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 4: everything with all voters, so he can adjust. And I

722
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:35,959
Speaker 4: think saying that there's no way he's going to get

723
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 4: twenty percent in any primary way too early.

724
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, especially when again Biden's time are going to be

725
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 1: on the ballot in Iowa or in New Hampshire. Right,

726
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 1: So I think that's honestly a really foolish thing to say.

727
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 1: All right, Emily, why don't you set up for us

728
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 1: this really interesting pulling from NBC News about some Republican priority.

729
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 3: This stuff is fascinating.

730
00:33:57,280 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 4: I'm so glad that we're we can actually put this

731
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 4: up on the screen. The first element in the B block,

732
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:05,719
Speaker 4: so be one here look at that. I know that

733
00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 4: the font is kind of small there, so I'm going

734
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,480
Speaker 4: to break it out for everyone. This is an NBC

735
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:14,960
Speaker 4: News poll that tested eleven different proposals and issues that

736
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:20,439
Speaker 4: the GOP candidates are campaigning on. And basically they say

737
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 4: that I'm reading from the report, the recent push on

738
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:25,760
Speaker 4: using the military at the border is resonating with general

739
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 4: election voters, though they Republicans are down on several other

740
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:33,760
Speaker 4: high profile policy planks. So if you're looking at the screen,

741
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 4: you're going to want to look at the upper left. There,

742
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,280
Speaker 4: so support for deploying the US military to the Mexican

743
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 4: border to stop illegal drugs from entering the country. That

744
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:43,479
Speaker 4: said so, fifty five percent of people say that would make.

745
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 3: Them more likely to vote for a presidential candidate.

746
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 4: Then take your eyes all the way down to the

747
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 4: bottom right. Wants to address the federal budget deficit by

748
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 4: reducing Social Security and Medicare benefits for those who are

749
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 4: not already enrolled in these programs. Only twelve percent of

750
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,239
Speaker 4: people so that would make the more likely to vote

751
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 4: for a candidate. Seventy seven percent of people say that

752
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 4: would make them less likely to vote for a candidate.

753
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:12,800
Speaker 4: The most popular position that they tested among all registered

754
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:17,319
Speaker 4: voters and Republican primary voters was deploying the military to

755
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:20,280
Speaker 4: the Mexican border. And notice it wasn't just deploying the military.

756
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:24,320
Speaker 4: They asked in the question specifically about stopping illegal drugs.

757
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 3: From entering the country.

758
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:28,359
Speaker 4: And that's actually a pretty key distinction because we talked

759
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 4: yesterday about the Stephen Miller drone the migrant vote. Yea

760
00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:34,840
Speaker 4: allegation which both of us, I think are finding a

761
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 4: little bit dubious but the distinction there is we're just

762
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,759
Speaker 4: going to stop people from entering the country, not drugs. Now,

763
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 4: when you're asking specifically about drugs, that should be a

764
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 4: huge red flag for Republicans to test out that messaging.

765
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 3: If they want this like deploy.

766
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 4: The military to the border thing to work electorally, you

767
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:56,720
Speaker 4: probably want to ask specifically about stopping the flow of drugs.

768
00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 4: That's what's polling well, and that is a very different

769
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 4: thing than people drugs.

770
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:02,880
Speaker 3: People very different.

771
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 4: You think that sounds pretty obvious, but to politicians it's not.

772
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, And they actually tested also, so they tested supports

773
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 1: deploying troops to the border to stop illegal drugs, and

774
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 1: that was the best. This is, you know, a whole

775
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: list of basically Republican priorities, a bunch of stuff about

776
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 1: you know, transgender kids, there's stuff about.

777
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 5: Abortion, there's stuff about stop this deal.

778
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 1: So they tested all of these sort of like Republican

779
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 1: talking points and priorities. And so they tested deploy the

780
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,840
Speaker 1: troops for illegal drugs, and they tested deploy the troops

781
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:34,920
Speaker 1: for immigration, and that did pull significantly less well. It

782
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 1: still was among the better polling of the GOP priorities,

783
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:43,240
Speaker 1: but it was less effective than stopping illegal drugs with troops,

784
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 1: And I think it's a sign of I mean, we're

785
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 1: still in it just keeps getting worse and worse. We

786
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:50,720
Speaker 1: had a fair amount of attention during the twenty sixteen

787
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 1: campaign about how bad the addiction crisis had gotten, how

788
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 1: bad the opioid addiction crisis had gotten, how many overdose deaths,

789
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:00,160
Speaker 1: and just what a scrore.

790
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:02,840
Speaker 5: Of America this was.

791
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:05,319
Speaker 1: And some of that attention has fallen off even as

792
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 1: the numbers have continued to grow and have really gotten

793
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,160
Speaker 1: worse and worse. So I think it reflects what continues

794
00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:14,759
Speaker 1: to be a horrific, humantal and pain point with the

795
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 1: American public. Even as we discussed yesterday, I think this

796
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:19,359
Speaker 1: solution is.

797
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:20,919
Speaker 5: Not the right one.

798
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 1: I mean, really, I think the only solution is to legalize,

799
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,719
Speaker 1: tax and regulate, but and the war on drugs since

800
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 1: we've been doing this forever and our addiction rates just

801
00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:32,799
Speaker 1: keep on getting worse and worse. But I do think

802
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 1: it just reflects that human pain that people are still

803
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 1: going through. You know, it's interesting if you go down

804
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:39,799
Speaker 1: the list here some of the places where there's a

805
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:43,800
Speaker 1: real divergence between how the public feels about the issue

806
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:47,400
Speaker 1: and how just the Republican base feels about the issue.

807
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,920
Speaker 1: Abortion is one of the top ones in terms of

808
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 1: that sort of like disconnect. So overall you only have

809
00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 1: twenty nine percent who say that banning abortion after the

810
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 1: first six weeks of pregnancy, which is the Rond de Santis,

811
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 1: that's a Ronda Santists physician. Only twenty nine percent say

812
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:09,280
Speaker 1: that makes them more likely to vote for a candidate overall,

813
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:12,240
Speaker 1: whereas fifty seven percent say it's more than a majority

814
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:15,800
Speaker 1: say it makes them less likely to vote for that candidate.

815
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 1: With the Republicans, there is a clear majority fifty two

816
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 1: percent in favor of and say that it's more likely

817
00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 1: to make them vote for a candidate who supports banning

818
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 1: abortion after the first six week six weeks, and only

819
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:30,720
Speaker 1: thirty percent of post Now, I mean fifty two percent

820
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:33,360
Speaker 1: is not like eighty percent. But you can see how

821
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:37,280
Speaker 1: the politics of this within the Republican base, because especially

822
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:39,840
Speaker 1: because the pro life part of the Republican base is

823
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 1: very organized and very effective and very powerful. You can

824
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:47,360
Speaker 1: see why you have Canadates like Mike Pence, Rondo Santis

825
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 1: and others who are getting really on a step with

826
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 1: where the American people are on this issue. But you know,

827
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:56,720
Speaker 1: obviously within the context of Republican primary, it makes some sense.

828
00:38:56,960 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 1: But I have to say, overall, Emily, I wish that

829
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 1: politics worked more like this, where you like go through

830
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:08,480
Speaker 1: you like have your personal issue priorities, and you like

831
00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 1: go through a list and how do these candidates match

832
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 1: up to that list?

833
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:13,839
Speaker 5: But this, it's kind of precious to think that's how

834
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 5: politics actually works.

835
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 1: And you see it with I mean you honestly see

836
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:20,600
Speaker 1: it with Ronda Santis and Donald Trump. I mean, Ronda

837
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:24,280
Speaker 1: Santis's whole play was like, I am going to on issues.

838
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:26,360
Speaker 1: I'm going to do all these like issue based things,

839
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:28,840
Speaker 1: policy things in Florida. I'm going to get to the

840
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 1: right of Trump on issues like abortion and wokeness and

841
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:34,880
Speaker 1: transgender issue. Like I'm going to get to the right

842
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:36,360
Speaker 1: of Trump on all these different issues.

843
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:37,880
Speaker 5: It's where the base is.

844
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 1: If I just look at the ideological charts and I

845
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:41,839
Speaker 1: look at the polling, this is where the base is.

846
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:46,520
Speaker 1: And if you ask voters in the Republican primary, they

847
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 1: have seen that. They actually do say Ronda Santis is

848
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:51,400
Speaker 1: more conservative than Donald Trump.

849
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:53,840
Speaker 5: They just still like Donald Trump.

850
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:55,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, because it's more about like the vibes and the

851
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 1: energy and who's going to own the Libs and who

852
00:39:58,080 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 1: pisses people off?

853
00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 5: And it's my there's more about this, like.

854
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:04,319
Speaker 1: Sort of wholesome view of the situation versus let me

855
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:05,880
Speaker 1: go through an issue by issue checklist.

856
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:06,239
Speaker 5: Yeah.

857
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:07,480
Speaker 3: No, it's always vibes.

858
00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:10,200
Speaker 4: And I actually really like what Benji Starlin I've seen

859
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 4: before said when he tweeted this, he said, always love

860
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:15,360
Speaker 4: this NBC newspopt where they test generic candidate qualities and positions.

861
00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:17,479
Speaker 4: Actual voting is much more complicated, but it's a great

862
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 4: acid test for relative priorities and which issues are fully

863
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:23,520
Speaker 4: polarized on partisan lines or more niche And you really

864
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:25,959
Speaker 4: do see that with the border one, whereas you see

865
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 4: for instance, with like just to stop immigration or to

866
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:31,319
Speaker 4: deal with immigration sending the military to the border, it's

867
00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 4: forty six to forty With allowing kindergarten teachers through eighth

868
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:38,760
Speaker 4: grade teachers to discuss sexual orientation or gender identity forty

869
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:43,920
Speaker 4: six to forty six, bans on trans adolescents taking puberty

870
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 4: blocking medication forty one to forty four, aid to Ukraine

871
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 4: thirty seven to forty. You see polarization down the line on. Actually,

872
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 4: most of these issues, even ones that I think the

873
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 4: online right capital o capital are things are just like

874
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 4: populist cram the board outright winners. Yeah, absolutely, that is

875
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:06,160
Speaker 4: not what this shows at all. Granted that is more complicated.

876
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 4: These are different questions than whether you support that, but

877
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 4: this is asking whether it makes you more or less

878
00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:13,560
Speaker 4: likely to vote for someone in that The way that

879
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,360
Speaker 4: makes sense is is it a priority for you?

880
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 5: Yes?

881
00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 4: And what do you think of the people who tend

882
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 4: to talk like this? I feel like that's actually a

883
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:23,399
Speaker 4: huge part of the formula when people are asked a question.

884
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I'm always skeptical of these polls because

885
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:28,919
Speaker 1: I think people are bad, not because people are dumb,

886
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,439
Speaker 1: but because people are complex at assessing what their own

887
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:34,360
Speaker 1: motivations will be in terms of choosing a candidate. I

888
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:35,799
Speaker 1: wanted to ask you, Emily, what do you think of

889
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:38,600
Speaker 1: this one? So they asked this question. You know, would

890
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 1: you be more likely or less likely to support someone

891
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 1: who a candidate who quote threatens to penalize or financially

892
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:48,880
Speaker 1: harm businesses that make statements on LGBTQ and other issues

893
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:49,320
Speaker 1: that they.

894
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:51,880
Speaker 5: Do not agree with. This was a big loser.

895
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 1: This was almost as bad as the Social Security and

896
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:59,839
Speaker 1: Medicare question. So the overall public, only twelve percent said

897
00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 1: that would make them more likely to support a candidate.

898
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:03,759
Speaker 1: And this is basically like asking about the Ron de

899
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:07,480
Speaker 1: Santa's Disney situation. Yeah right, Yeah, and seventy percent said

900
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 1: it would make them less likely to support that candidate.

901
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:13,279
Speaker 1: Even with Republicans, this was a dog. This was the

902
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:17,440
Speaker 1: second to the worst polled question. Sixteen percent said it

903
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,839
Speaker 1: would make them more likely and fifty eight percent said

904
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:21,439
Speaker 1: it would make them less likely.

905
00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 5: What do you think about that?

906
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:25,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I think to apply that to destantas, which

907
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 4: they're You're right, I think they're clearly trying to do,

908
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:30,280
Speaker 4: is not super helpful because that's such a specific situation.

909
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:34,279
Speaker 4: Disney occupies such a unique and distinct place in the

910
00:42:34,360 --> 00:42:37,440
Speaker 4: like a public's idea, So there's something more emotional and

911
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 4: specific about the Disney example. But I do think this

912
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:42,439
Speaker 4: gets to what we're talking about, and that it's about

913
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 4: the vibe. So when you're asked this question as a

914
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:47,799
Speaker 4: member of the public, you're thinking, Yeah, what the candidates

915
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 4: I can think of that are talking like this are

916
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:52,400
Speaker 4: the ones that like just don't like these are like

917
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,400
Speaker 4: the hardcore Republicans, and most of the country is not

918
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:59,160
Speaker 4: a hardcore Republican, right, So if you're associating, if you're

919
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:03,680
Speaker 4: coming to associate these types of policy positions with hardcore Republicans,

920
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:06,040
Speaker 4: especially in the middle of a primary, and as Republicans

921
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:07,959
Speaker 4: have been gearing up for primary for the last couple

922
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 4: of years, that's an interesting sign to the GOP to say, like, hey,

923
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:16,839
Speaker 4: the marketing on these issues when maybe if you ask

924
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:19,359
Speaker 4: them in a different way, with more specific examples, you'd

925
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 4: get different results.

926
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 3: But that just means the marketing, the sort of.

927
00:43:21,920 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 4: Thirty thousand foot level association that the public has with

928
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 4: this piece of our agenda not great.

929
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 1: I also think, in fairness, I think this wording is

930
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:34,880
Speaker 1: very loaded threatens to penalize or financially harmed business. I

931
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 1: just I think the language is a little bit loaded,

932
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:40,880
Speaker 1: agree and is part of what is driving this result.

933
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 1: But it is interesting to me that you know, this

934
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 1: is something that Trump has jumped all over de Santis for.

935
00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 5: He has really kind of taken to Santa's.

936
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:51,279
Speaker 1: I mean, Disney's side in this dispute and said that

937
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:54,319
Speaker 1: you know, they're making their humiliating DeSantis and making him

938
00:43:54,320 --> 00:43:57,880
Speaker 1: look foolish something like that along those lines. And you know,

939
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:00,919
Speaker 1: I do think that there is something there in terms

940
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 1: of Trump. Feels like there's an angle that he can work.

941
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:06,520
Speaker 1: And you know, I think Trump is a much better politician,

942
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:10,600
Speaker 1: much savvier politician, and much he has more of just

943
00:44:10,640 --> 00:44:13,759
Speaker 1: a populous sensibility, not that he's like a genuine but

944
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:18,040
Speaker 1: he has that normy vibe sometimes that comes through, and

945
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 1: in this instance it seems to be backed up some

946
00:44:20,239 --> 00:44:20,760
Speaker 1: by the polls.

947
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 3: Well, and let's move on to this.

948
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 4: You can see there was a new one of the

949
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:27,840
Speaker 4: most hotly anticipated polls in politics, the Marquette University poll

950
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:32,000
Speaker 4: of Wisconsin voters. One came out yesterday on the GOP

951
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:34,360
Speaker 4: presidential primary. We can go ahead and pop this element

952
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:36,839
Speaker 4: up on the screen. It is B two. Yeah, there

953
00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:38,920
Speaker 4: it is. So this is my back of the Milwaukee Journal

954
00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 4: Centinel new polling in Wisconsin's presidential primary for Republicans from

955
00:44:42,600 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 4: Marquette University law Trump is at thirty one percent, DeSantis

956
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:49,400
Speaker 4: is at thirty percent, Pence at six percent, Tim Scott

957
00:44:49,440 --> 00:44:54,839
Speaker 4: at five percent. That undecided number is around twenty percent.

958
00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:58,879
Speaker 4: That's a that's a pretty big deal. But I think

959
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:01,800
Speaker 4: it's also that twenty percent is a really big deal. Now,

960
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:06,319
Speaker 4: the margin of error here for all voters is plus

961
00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 4: or minus about four points, margin of ara for Republicans

962
00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:12,759
Speaker 4: about six and a half points, so that Trump versus

963
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 4: DeSantis could vary pretty wildly within that margin of error.

964
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:19,239
Speaker 4: And actually that means Pens and Scott are both in

965
00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:21,360
Speaker 4: the margin of air polling at six and five percent.

966
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:24,799
Speaker 4: That said, it's going to be We talked about this

967
00:45:24,920 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 4: yesterday that when you look at these big national polls

968
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:31,560
Speaker 4: of Trump versus desantus of Republican voters, Trump is way ahead.

969
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:34,399
Speaker 4: But the way our primary process works, if you catch

970
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 4: momentum in an early state, and Wisconsin isn't one of those.

971
00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 4: But if you could replicate these polling results at any

972
00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:42,480
Speaker 4: point as we approach the actual primary caucus in Iowa

973
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:44,799
Speaker 4: or in New Hampshire, because someone has a really good

974
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 4: ground gain in a state or is particularly popular in

975
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 4: a given state. Wisconsin somewhere that Ted Cruz actually won,

976
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:53,840
Speaker 4: I believe in twenty sixteen that was generally, you know,

977
00:45:54,000 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 4: not a huge Trump state until he really started to

978
00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:00,920
Speaker 4: catch on with folks in rural Wisconsin and is extremely

979
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:01,799
Speaker 4: popular up there.

980
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:05,040
Speaker 3: That is what can make the difference.

981
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 4: If you start winning particular states, then you just get

982
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:11,400
Speaker 4: momentum in a way that totally changes the national polls.

983
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 3: Again, I still think Donald Trump.

984
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:16,200
Speaker 4: Is clearly the front runner, but it's pretty I think

985
00:46:16,280 --> 00:46:18,520
Speaker 4: useful to zoom in and particular states where the race

986
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:22,360
Speaker 4: is much closer, because that's an indication that DeSantis can

987
00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:25,080
Speaker 4: compete in individual states, and individual states are going to

988
00:46:25,080 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 4: be instrumental in shifting funds, in shifting momentum, and shifting

989
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 4: media coverage as the primary season gears up.

990
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 3: So that's a pretty useful metro.

991
00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:38,280
Speaker 1: So that's definitely the Desanti's case, right, that's their case,

992
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 1: that's their plan. Iowa has I think he's got a

993
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 1: decent shot there because there is a strong religious right

994
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:49,440
Speaker 1: evangelical base that has rewarded candidates that do hold their

995
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:52,479
Speaker 1: issue set. DeSantis has positioned himself to the right of Trump,

996
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:56,320
Speaker 1: particularly on the issue of abortion, so I think that probably.

997
00:46:56,000 --> 00:46:56,840
Speaker 5: Is his best shot.

998
00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 1: You know, I spent a lot of time sort of

999
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 1: downplaying I wouldn't say downplaying, but just my honest assessment

1000
00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:02,920
Speaker 1: is I think Trump is going.

1001
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:03,840
Speaker 5: To be the Republican nominee.

1002
00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 1: But if I was to look at this poll and

1003
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:08,080
Speaker 1: make the best case I can for DeSantis. I think

1004
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 1: it's very interesting that you have such a high number

1005
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 1: of undecided, and I think that's perhaps why this poll

1006
00:47:12,640 --> 00:47:14,799
Speaker 1: is such an outlier as opposed to all the other

1007
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:16,520
Speaker 1: polls that come out that I'm looking at, you know,

1008
00:47:16,560 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 1: Trump plus thirty four, Trump plus twenty four, et, Trump

1009
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 1: plus twenty eight, et cetera, et cetera. I think it

1010
00:47:23,120 --> 00:47:25,880
Speaker 1: may be because they allowed people to say they're undecided,

1011
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:27,799
Speaker 1: whereas a lot of other poles the way they're contructed, you.

1012
00:47:27,840 --> 00:47:28,520
Speaker 5: Got to pick one.

1013
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:31,919
Speaker 1: And so the best case I can make for DeSantis

1014
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:35,320
Speaker 1: is that while Trump's base may look really rock solid,

1015
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:38,320
Speaker 1: only maybe thirty percent of it is really rock solid.

1016
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:41,120
Speaker 1: Maybe the other twenty percent that he typically gets that

1017
00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:42,960
Speaker 1: gets them over fifty percent in these.

1018
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 5: Polls, maybe they are open.

1019
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 1: Maybe there is a pitch that you can make to

1020
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:49,720
Speaker 1: them that would persuade them to move off of Donald

1021
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 1: Trump and so, and the solidity of his support may

1022
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 1: be more of an illusion then it sometimes appears. I

1023
00:47:58,080 --> 00:47:59,800
Speaker 1: think that's probably the best case you can make for

1024
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:03,480
Speaker 1: DeSantis based on this pole, which is admittedly an outlier,

1025
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:05,719
Speaker 1: Based on the other things we've been seeing it coming.

1026
00:48:05,480 --> 00:48:07,279
Speaker 4: Out like yeah, and this is a poll that has

1027
00:48:07,320 --> 00:48:10,360
Speaker 4: been wrong in some pretty i would say, egregious ways,

1028
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:11,360
Speaker 4: and they all.

1029
00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:13,920
Speaker 1: Have in fairness, but this was one that was like

1030
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 1: really agregious in twenty twenty in a.

1031
00:48:16,520 --> 00:48:17,400
Speaker 3: Couple different cycles.

1032
00:48:17,400 --> 00:48:20,239
Speaker 4: Really, I've had some misses and so and with a

1033
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:23,399
Speaker 4: six plus nine US six point five margin of error

1034
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:26,960
Speaker 4: for Republican voters, that's pretty significant. Now, if it's between

1035
00:48:26,960 --> 00:48:29,759
Speaker 4: Trump and DeSantis, this is molly reading the poll here,

1036
00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:33,520
Speaker 4: fifty seven percent of Republicans say DeSantis, forty one percent

1037
00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:36,480
Speaker 4: say Trump. So DeSantis in Wisconsin, if this poll is

1038
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:39,680
Speaker 4: to believe to be believed, comes out ahead with Republicans

1039
00:48:39,719 --> 00:48:42,120
Speaker 4: pretty easily, like well above the margin of error if

1040
00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:45,800
Speaker 4: it's DeSantis versus Trump in Wisconsin. If it's Biden and DeSantis,

1041
00:48:45,840 --> 00:48:49,040
Speaker 4: forty nine percent go with Biden, forty seven pick Dysantis.

1042
00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:52,760
Speaker 4: Between Biden and Trump fifty two forty three. Biden wins

1043
00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:55,839
Speaker 4: over Trump by a larger margin than he ultimately did

1044
00:48:55,880 --> 00:48:59,440
Speaker 4: on election day, but that that number Trump versus desantus

1045
00:48:59,440 --> 00:49:03,120
Speaker 4: in Wisconsin. And again, if this is genuinely an outlier

1046
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:06,840
Speaker 4: and actually is picking up on something interesting that's outside

1047
00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:09,319
Speaker 4: of what we've seen so far, and in a way

1048
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:12,280
Speaker 4: that really reflects voter sentiment. That's quite interesting.

1049
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and move on, guys, to be four,

1050
00:49:15,560 --> 00:49:20,520
Speaker 1: which is potentially also a momentous situation, not just for

1051
00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:23,799
Speaker 1: Republicans but for all of us in American politics. Put

1052
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:26,360
Speaker 1: this up on the screen from Mediaite. So apparently Trump

1053
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 1: is considering getting back on Twitter, basically planning on getting

1054
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:31,080
Speaker 1: back on Twitter.

1055
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:33,040
Speaker 5: I like the way Mediaite frames this.

1056
00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:35,960
Speaker 1: He's saving his return to Twitter for a special occasion,

1057
00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 1: like another indictment.

1058
00:49:37,239 --> 00:49:37,520
Speaker 10: Yay.

1059
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:42,319
Speaker 1: The Axios had the original report here Emily, and they

1060
00:49:42,320 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 1: basically said he had actually considered getting back on after

1061
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:49,359
Speaker 1: the original indictment, but then decided to wait. I mean,

1062
00:49:49,400 --> 00:49:52,239
Speaker 1: this is complicated for him financially because obviously he has

1063
00:49:52,280 --> 00:49:55,040
Speaker 1: a piece of truth social He also I think has

1064
00:49:55,080 --> 00:49:58,840
Speaker 1: some agreements exclusivity agreements with them that he has to

1065
00:49:59,719 --> 00:50:02,640
Speaker 1: does it have to, but is potentially advantaged by letting

1066
00:50:02,640 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 1: those exclusivity agreements run out. But it looks like at

1067
00:50:06,120 --> 00:50:08,319
Speaker 1: some point in this election cycle, we are going to

1068
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:10,800
Speaker 1: get Donald Trump's tweets back in all of our lives.

1069
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:13,479
Speaker 4: And you know, it's funny, but it is also kind

1070
00:50:13,480 --> 00:50:15,960
Speaker 4: of a game changer, I think, and his team seems

1071
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:18,719
Speaker 4: to be noticing this according to the Acxios report. In

1072
00:50:18,760 --> 00:50:21,720
Speaker 4: that I think this goes to the argument that Twitter

1073
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 4: truly is a monopoly and has a wildly unfair market

1074
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:28,240
Speaker 4: share and needs to be regulated differently, because, as they're noticing,

1075
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:31,920
Speaker 4: you really need to be on Twitter to specifically have

1076
00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:34,239
Speaker 4: the influence that you might think you could get from

1077
00:50:34,280 --> 00:50:36,520
Speaker 4: true Social. But true Social is an echo chamber, and

1078
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 4: that's not why anybody uses these social media platforms. They

1079
00:50:40,040 --> 00:50:42,319
Speaker 4: end up getting used that way and in a way

1080
00:50:42,320 --> 00:50:45,920
Speaker 4: that creates this like dopamine addiction in some cases. But honestly,

1081
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:47,840
Speaker 4: you can't get your message out if everyone isn't on

1082
00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:50,320
Speaker 4: the same platform, and that's exactly what's happened to Trump

1083
00:50:50,320 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 4: with True Social. He like even being the former president,

1084
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:56,719
Speaker 4: basically posts into the void, and every once in a

1085
00:50:56,800 --> 00:50:59,320
Speaker 4: while something breaks through and it will get covered in

1086
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:01,960
Speaker 4: the media as based an official statement of the former president.

1087
00:51:02,960 --> 00:51:06,000
Speaker 4: Funny as that is, but it doesn't really get the

1088
00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:07,680
Speaker 4: pickup that it used to in the press. And I

1089
00:51:07,680 --> 00:51:10,600
Speaker 4: think everything you need to know about Twitter essentially having

1090
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:11,840
Speaker 4: an unfair market share.

1091
00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:12,640
Speaker 3: Is in this report.

1092
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:14,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, about whether Donald Trump is coming back.

1093
00:51:14,560 --> 00:51:18,120
Speaker 1: I mean, I think social media platforms are basically natural monopoly, yes,

1094
00:51:18,120 --> 00:51:19,440
Speaker 1: you know, and I think we need to think of

1095
00:51:19,480 --> 00:51:24,200
Speaker 1: them in that regard. But yeah, with Trump, elite journalists

1096
00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:26,600
Speaker 1: are not on true Social, so it's just not in

1097
00:51:26,640 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 1: your face every day the way it was when he

1098
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:32,720
Speaker 1: was on Twitter, and a key source of the Donald

1099
00:51:32,760 --> 00:51:36,000
Speaker 1: Trump power is making the media respond to that exact,

1100
00:51:36,000 --> 00:51:39,000
Speaker 1: making them freak out about whatever he's saying, being able

1101
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:41,879
Speaker 1: to drive the narrative, drive the conversation, push the set

1102
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:44,000
Speaker 1: of issues that he wants. I mean, he is the master.

1103
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 1: I've never seen anyone better at doing that. And by

1104
00:51:47,880 --> 00:51:50,680
Speaker 1: putting himself in what is effectively like a social media

1105
00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:55,839
Speaker 1: ghetto over on true Social, he has intentionally undercut his

1106
00:51:55,960 --> 00:51:59,279
Speaker 1: ability to do that. He's still obviously a very powerful force,

1107
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:01,320
Speaker 1: especially as he's getting, you know, in dieted and probably

1108
00:52:01,320 --> 00:52:03,440
Speaker 1: going to face more indictments. He's going to be central

1109
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:06,919
Speaker 1: to news coverage whether he's on Twitter or not, but

1110
00:52:07,360 --> 00:52:09,680
Speaker 1: it has sort of eaten away at his power to

1111
00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 1: drive the narrative. One thing I will say, though, Emily,

1112
00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:15,560
Speaker 1: is I think Twitter was so much better when they

1113
00:52:15,600 --> 00:52:17,920
Speaker 1: really did have the character limits and I think Trump

1114
00:52:18,000 --> 00:52:23,040
Speaker 1: is such a better poster when he's forced to constrain

1115
00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:27,400
Speaker 1: himself to brevity on Twitter, because what he is posting

1116
00:52:27,440 --> 00:52:30,520
Speaker 1: on true social is just like it's so long and.

1117
00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:32,160
Speaker 5: Tedious and repetitive.

1118
00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 1: I mean, I think that is also a small part

1119
00:52:34,560 --> 00:52:36,799
Speaker 1: of why it's not getting picked up as much is

1120
00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:39,960
Speaker 1: because he just like the format of the short tweet

1121
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:43,680
Speaker 1: back when that was still enforced, is actually a better

1122
00:52:43,719 --> 00:52:44,319
Speaker 1: format for him.

1123
00:52:44,320 --> 00:52:45,800
Speaker 5: He's a better poster in that genre.

1124
00:52:46,040 --> 00:52:48,680
Speaker 4: I would read like a new Republican essay from you

1125
00:52:48,840 --> 00:52:49,160
Speaker 4: on this.

1126
00:52:50,440 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 5: That's all I got.

1127
00:52:53,280 --> 00:52:55,560
Speaker 4: There's a great book by Rob Long called Bigley where

1128
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:59,840
Speaker 4: he analyzes Trump tweets as essentially as poetry and like, actually,

1129
00:53:00,440 --> 00:53:02,879
Speaker 4: it's really funny, but he should do he should update

1130
00:53:02,920 --> 00:53:04,480
Speaker 4: that actually now that Trump has been doing these really

1131
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:06,640
Speaker 4: long true Social posts, because I think it's a great

1132
00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:10,520
Speaker 4: I have a creative writing minor. This is like real time.

1133
00:53:10,520 --> 00:53:13,680
Speaker 4: It's ever going to be useful. That's interesting that the

1134
00:53:14,120 --> 00:53:18,759
Speaker 4: analysis of like contemporary poetry where there's no boundaries, but

1135
00:53:19,080 --> 00:53:21,520
Speaker 4: if you have restrictions and constraints on your art, you're

1136
00:53:21,520 --> 00:53:21,839
Speaker 4: going to.

1137
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:22,680
Speaker 3: Produce something better.

1138
00:53:22,760 --> 00:53:26,680
Speaker 4: This is wildly unuseful in the context of our conversation

1139
00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:29,320
Speaker 4: right now, But I thought I would, Mom.

1140
00:53:29,200 --> 00:53:29,879
Speaker 3: This is for you.

1141
00:53:30,400 --> 00:53:33,640
Speaker 4: I'm using my degree and getting some money.

1142
00:53:33,719 --> 00:53:37,760
Speaker 1: You got their quintessential like lib horrible degree, that's amazing.

1143
00:53:37,760 --> 00:53:41,600
Speaker 3: What was your major political science? Even worse? Put those

1144
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:42,320
Speaker 3: two things together?

1145
00:53:42,920 --> 00:53:47,200
Speaker 1: No, I mean actually though, like you do write a writer, yeah,

1146
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 1: and having so like I think Taygebe has this very

1147
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:53,640
Speaker 1: like literary sensibility when he writes. Even when I like

1148
00:53:53,680 --> 00:53:55,960
Speaker 1: disagree with him, I always love reading his writing because

1149
00:53:55,960 --> 00:53:57,040
Speaker 1: it's so beautiful.

1150
00:53:57,120 --> 00:53:58,359
Speaker 5: So it has a use.

1151
00:53:59,239 --> 00:54:01,080
Speaker 3: He's dying art for Crystal.

1152
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:03,239
Speaker 4: There's so much happening y Yeah, sure, right now, that's

1153
00:54:03,239 --> 00:54:06,279
Speaker 4: hard to really understand exactly what's going on.

1154
00:54:06,640 --> 00:54:09,160
Speaker 1: Yes, this is very difficult to sort through. So I'll

1155
00:54:09,200 --> 00:54:10,839
Speaker 1: just we're just going to go through what is being

1156
00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:14,360
Speaker 1: reported in the press right now, and you know, always

1157
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:16,200
Speaker 1: take these reports with a grain of salt, because I

1158
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:18,840
Speaker 1: think it is very much an open question. Even you know,

1159
00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:20,800
Speaker 1: I've been talking to our friend Diegor who's in Moscow.

1160
00:54:21,120 --> 00:54:22,920
Speaker 1: Even for people that are there on the ground, very

1161
00:54:23,000 --> 00:54:25,640
Speaker 1: uncertain what exactly is going on. So first put this

1162
00:54:25,800 --> 00:54:28,000
Speaker 1: up on the screen. We got some this is from

1163
00:54:28,080 --> 00:54:32,279
Speaker 1: Western intelligence officials. No, keep that in mind. They are

1164
00:54:32,360 --> 00:54:37,160
Speaker 1: saying that Progosion actually his plan was to capture Russian

1165
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:42,680
Speaker 1: military leaders as part of last weekend's mutiny. He accelerated

1166
00:54:42,680 --> 00:54:46,920
Speaker 1: his plans after the country's domestic intelligence agency became aware

1167
00:54:47,120 --> 00:54:50,000
Speaker 1: of the plot, and they say that the plot's premature

1168
00:54:50,080 --> 00:54:53,160
Speaker 1: launch was among the factors that could explain why it

1169
00:54:53,200 --> 00:54:56,680
Speaker 1: failed so quickly after thirty six hours when Progosion struck

1170
00:54:56,680 --> 00:54:59,520
Speaker 1: that deal with Lukashenko called off the armed march on

1171
00:54:59,600 --> 00:55:04,360
Speaker 1: Moscow that had initially faced little resistance. So the original idea,

1172
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:07,799
Speaker 1: according to Western intelligence officials, is that he was going

1173
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:12,520
Speaker 1: to capture Sergei Shoigu and Valerie Gerasmov, a chief of

1174
00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:15,440
Speaker 1: Russia's General staff during a visit to a southern region

1175
00:55:15,440 --> 00:55:16,440
Speaker 1: that borders Ukraine.

1176
00:55:16,480 --> 00:55:18,400
Speaker 5: That the two were planning.

1177
00:55:18,320 --> 00:55:21,120
Speaker 1: But because the FSB found out about that plan two

1178
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:23,319
Speaker 1: days before it was to be executed.

1179
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:25,520
Speaker 5: He pushed up the plans and launched this.

1180
00:55:25,640 --> 00:55:30,759
Speaker 1: Less poorly executed, less less well thought out situation because

1181
00:55:30,800 --> 00:55:34,439
Speaker 1: it was sort of rushed into being. They thought that

1182
00:55:34,880 --> 00:55:37,160
Speaker 1: this this kind of bothers my family. So according to

1183
00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:40,319
Speaker 1: this report, Western officials believe the original plot had a

1184
00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:44,400
Speaker 1: good chance of success. But failed after the conspiracy was leaked.

1185
00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:46,200
Speaker 1: And the reason that I took note of that is

1186
00:55:46,239 --> 00:55:50,759
Speaker 1: because the Biden administration pointedly did not say anything about

1187
00:55:50,840 --> 00:55:53,080
Speaker 1: the fact that they apparently had knowledge of this plot,

1188
00:55:53,719 --> 00:55:57,280
Speaker 1: did not, you know, alert the Russians, didn't alert the world,

1189
00:55:57,320 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 1: et cetera. And if you thought this had a good

1190
00:55:59,840 --> 00:56:03,480
Speaker 1: chance of success, like that's kind of insane because you're

1191
00:56:03,520 --> 00:56:08,120
Speaker 1: talking about just like standing back while this mercenary madman

1192
00:56:08,640 --> 00:56:12,400
Speaker 1: takes control of a nuclear armed superpower and just like

1193
00:56:12,480 --> 00:56:14,320
Speaker 1: crossing your fingers and hoping for the best.

1194
00:56:14,840 --> 00:56:16,720
Speaker 5: I think that's I think that's pretty reckless.

1195
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:18,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, No, I mean I completely agree.

1196
00:56:18,200 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 4: I actually think that's similar to what we've seen with

1197
00:56:20,320 --> 00:56:23,360
Speaker 4: the Bridge over and over again with and actually with

1198
00:56:23,400 --> 00:56:25,239
Speaker 4: the Bridge, we've seen this with North Stream too, is

1199
00:56:25,280 --> 00:56:28,120
Speaker 4: that you see Western intelligence officials basically leaking to the

1200
00:56:28,160 --> 00:56:30,640
Speaker 4: press to cover themselves in a way that actually doesn't

1201
00:56:30,640 --> 00:56:31,640
Speaker 4: make themselves look great.

1202
00:56:32,000 --> 00:56:34,240
Speaker 3: It makes them look like they're either.

1203
00:56:34,840 --> 00:56:38,480
Speaker 4: Wrongfully assessing situations or not acting in ways that are

1204
00:56:38,520 --> 00:56:41,200
Speaker 4: actually productive. And this is just another part of that

1205
00:56:41,239 --> 00:56:43,040
Speaker 4: pattern as far as I'm reading it right now.

1206
00:56:43,120 --> 00:56:45,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's put the New York Times reporting that we

1207
00:56:45,040 --> 00:56:47,560
Speaker 1: have up on the screen as well, which is, you know,

1208
00:56:47,600 --> 00:56:49,480
Speaker 1: additional context. And I think they were the first to

1209
00:56:49,600 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 1: report some of these details. They say that a Russian

1210
00:56:52,200 --> 00:56:56,719
Speaker 1: general actually knew about the Mercenary chief's rebellion plans. Again,

1211
00:56:56,840 --> 00:56:59,920
Speaker 1: according to US officials, you getting progotion. The head of

1212
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:03,920
Speaker 1: Wagner may have believed that he had support in Russia's military.

1213
00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:06,959
Speaker 1: Now let me tell you why this is really significant.

1214
00:57:07,440 --> 00:57:11,839
Speaker 1: They're alleging here that a General Sergei Serovakan, I'm sure

1215
00:57:11,880 --> 00:57:15,440
Speaker 1: I'm screwing that up. My apologies, former top Russian commander

1216
00:57:15,640 --> 00:57:20,240
Speaker 1: in Ukraine, helped to plan Progosian's actions last weekend, which

1217
00:57:20,280 --> 00:57:23,080
Speaker 1: posed the most dramatic threat to President Vladimir Putin in

1218
00:57:23,080 --> 00:57:26,840
Speaker 1: his twenty three years of power. American officials, they point out,

1219
00:57:27,120 --> 00:57:30,520
Speaker 1: have an interest in pushing out information that undermines the

1220
00:57:30,560 --> 00:57:34,120
Speaker 1: standing of General Seroviakan, whom they view as more competent

1221
00:57:34,440 --> 00:57:38,400
Speaker 1: and more ruthless than other members of the command. His removal,

1222
00:57:38,400 --> 00:57:41,680
Speaker 1: they say, would undoubtedly benefit Ukraine, whose western back troops

1223
00:57:41,680 --> 00:57:43,400
Speaker 1: are pushing a new counter offensive that is meant to

1224
00:57:43,440 --> 00:57:48,320
Speaker 1: try to win back territory seized by Moscow. So the

1225
00:57:48,360 --> 00:57:51,600
Speaker 1: insinuation here is that US officials might be pushing this

1226
00:57:51,800 --> 00:57:56,880
Speaker 1: narrative because listen, Progosion was one of the more effective

1227
00:57:57,120 --> 00:57:59,640
Speaker 1: leaders in terms on the Russian side, with his band

1228
00:57:59,640 --> 00:58:01,800
Speaker 1: of merca andaries, one of the more effective leaders.

1229
00:58:01,960 --> 00:58:02,440
Speaker 5: They now have.

1230
00:58:02,400 --> 00:58:04,600
Speaker 1: Taken him out of play, not taken him out of play.

1231
00:58:04,680 --> 00:58:08,720
Speaker 1: Russians have taken him out of play. Now if Serovakin

1232
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:12,560
Speaker 1: is also taken out of play, well, these two things

1233
00:58:12,600 --> 00:58:17,160
Speaker 1: are quite significant to Ukraine's odds and Ukraine's chances within

1234
00:58:17,200 --> 00:58:19,960
Speaker 1: their counter offensive, because you're talking about two of what

1235
00:58:20,120 --> 00:58:23,160
Speaker 1: Western officials at least view as the most effective and

1236
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:26,480
Speaker 1: most competent military leaders that Russia had on their side.

1237
00:58:26,560 --> 00:58:30,720
Speaker 1: And this there is fairly credible reporting this morning that

1238
00:58:30,880 --> 00:58:35,200
Speaker 1: Serovakan has been detained by you know, by the Kremlin,

1239
00:58:35,800 --> 00:58:38,720
Speaker 1: that he you know, is expected to have collaborated or

1240
00:58:38,720 --> 00:58:41,640
Speaker 1: at least known about progosions plans, and so he is,

1241
00:58:41,760 --> 00:58:44,280
Speaker 1: you know, being being held right now. That's the reporting,

1242
00:58:44,600 --> 00:58:47,440
Speaker 1: you know, nobody can really fully confirm it, but it

1243
00:58:47,520 --> 00:58:48,640
Speaker 1: is an interesting turn abouts.

1244
00:58:48,680 --> 00:58:49,680
Speaker 3: I'll just say that, yes it is.

1245
00:58:49,720 --> 00:58:51,720
Speaker 4: And we're told over and over again that the end

1246
00:58:51,800 --> 00:58:54,040
Speaker 4: goal here is nothing short for the West and for

1247
00:58:54,080 --> 00:58:56,280
Speaker 4: the United States of regime change, and that's why there's

1248
00:58:56,320 --> 00:58:59,680
Speaker 4: Western intelligence official leaks or comments to the press right

1249
00:58:59,680 --> 00:59:01,920
Speaker 4: now are really strange to me because they're I mean,

1250
00:59:01,960 --> 00:59:05,200
Speaker 4: not strange. Actually they're perfectly logical, but they're really trying

1251
00:59:05,200 --> 00:59:08,040
Speaker 4: to emphasize discord within the ranks. And whether or not

1252
00:59:08,080 --> 00:59:10,080
Speaker 4: that's true, I think is an open question. Given the

1253
00:59:10,120 --> 00:59:15,080
Speaker 4: fact that our only acceptable end game, as American lawmakers

1254
00:59:15,160 --> 00:59:17,280
Speaker 4: and officials in the West have said over and over again,

1255
00:59:17,480 --> 00:59:20,760
Speaker 4: the only acceptable end is regime change, then it makes

1256
00:59:20,760 --> 00:59:24,480
Speaker 4: complete sense. You're starting to leak from Western intelligence officials

1257
00:59:24,520 --> 00:59:26,440
Speaker 4: to the New York Times, to the Washington Post, the

1258
00:59:26,440 --> 00:59:29,240
Speaker 4: Wall Street Journal that Putin is weak and that you know,

1259
00:59:29,280 --> 00:59:33,040
Speaker 4: there's discord in the ranks, And that's exactly what we're

1260
00:59:33,080 --> 00:59:38,680
Speaker 4: seeing after this coup is continued Western intelligence officials saying

1261
00:59:38,680 --> 00:59:41,600
Speaker 4: that there's just too much discord, that Putin is really

1262
00:59:41,600 --> 00:59:44,080
Speaker 4: in trouble this time, et cetera, et cetera, and that

1263
00:59:44,360 --> 00:59:47,960
Speaker 4: given our the only indication we have of what could

1264
00:59:48,040 --> 00:59:50,720
Speaker 4: end this war in an acceptable way to the Anne

1265
00:59:50,720 --> 00:59:53,400
Speaker 4: Apple Bombs of the world and the politicians who read

1266
00:59:53,480 --> 00:59:58,000
Speaker 4: her essays in the Atlantic, if that's regime change, then

1267
00:59:58,040 --> 00:59:59,919
Speaker 4: the motivation here makes me doubt the verac.

1268
01:00:00,440 --> 01:00:03,640
Speaker 1: I already have seen the Ukraine hawks seizing on what

1269
01:00:03,760 --> 01:00:06,680
Speaker 1: happened here to say, look how weak Putin is. Look

1270
01:00:06,680 --> 01:00:08,280
Speaker 1: at how you know they were able to march so

1271
01:00:08,320 --> 01:00:11,280
Speaker 1: close to Moscow and he barely did anything. And you know,

1272
01:00:11,360 --> 01:00:13,360
Speaker 1: let this guy just get off the hook and go

1273
01:00:13,440 --> 01:00:16,200
Speaker 1: to Belarust. And that means that his red lines don't

1274
01:00:16,200 --> 01:00:20,280
Speaker 1: mean anything. Ergo, we should continue to push the bounds

1275
01:00:20,360 --> 01:00:24,000
Speaker 1: of what you know may corner him. Maybe he is

1276
01:00:24,000 --> 01:00:26,800
Speaker 1: a red line that he's drawn. This is justification why

1277
01:00:26,800 --> 01:00:29,120
Speaker 1: we should do even more. I'm already seeing them make

1278
01:00:29,160 --> 01:00:32,440
Speaker 1: that case. In terms of the public perception, you know,

1279
01:00:32,520 --> 01:00:34,000
Speaker 1: I think these things are a little bit hard to

1280
01:00:34,040 --> 01:00:35,520
Speaker 1: gauge in immediate real time.

1281
01:00:35,720 --> 01:00:37,320
Speaker 5: But put this up on the screen. I did find

1282
01:00:37,320 --> 01:00:37,920
Speaker 5: this interesting.

1283
01:00:38,800 --> 01:00:43,760
Speaker 1: We did have a trend of decreasing US public support

1284
01:00:44,120 --> 01:00:47,320
Speaker 1: for continuing military aid. That has been the trend for

1285
01:00:47,360 --> 01:00:49,400
Speaker 1: some months now. We now have a new pole that

1286
01:00:49,440 --> 01:00:51,760
Speaker 1: goes in the opposite direction. And it is not lost.

1287
01:00:51,760 --> 01:00:54,640
Speaker 1: I mean that this poll was taken, you know, people

1288
01:00:55,040 --> 01:00:58,640
Speaker 1: responded to it just shortly after this whole Russian attempted

1289
01:00:58,680 --> 01:00:59,360
Speaker 1: coup situation.

1290
01:00:59,560 --> 01:01:01,480
Speaker 5: Unfuld to put this up on the screen.

1291
01:01:01,520 --> 01:01:05,160
Speaker 1: Guys, you've got eighty one percent of Democrats, fifty six

1292
01:01:05,200 --> 01:01:07,480
Speaker 1: percent of Republicans, so even a majority of Republicans and

1293
01:01:07,560 --> 01:01:12,680
Speaker 1: fifty seven percent of Independence favor supplying US weapons to Ukraine.

1294
01:01:13,280 --> 01:01:16,440
Speaker 1: As I said, it was concluded on Tuesday, charted a

1295
01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:20,320
Speaker 1: sharp rise in backing for arming Ukraine, with sixty five

1296
01:01:20,440 --> 01:01:24,440
Speaker 1: percent overall of respondents approving of the shipments. That's compared

1297
01:01:24,480 --> 01:01:29,160
Speaker 1: with forty six percent in this same poll last month.

1298
01:01:29,720 --> 01:01:33,680
Speaker 1: So you know, for me, with polls, the absolute numbers

1299
01:01:33,840 --> 01:01:39,000
Speaker 1: are less accurate than the directional change. So the fact

1300
01:01:39,080 --> 01:01:42,040
Speaker 1: that in this one poll you have almost a twenty

1301
01:01:42,120 --> 01:01:46,919
Speaker 1: percent movement towards in favor of arming Ukraine in one

1302
01:01:47,000 --> 01:01:51,200
Speaker 1: month shows me that probably there was a real response

1303
01:01:51,280 --> 01:01:55,280
Speaker 1: to this Russian coup attempt and refocused attention on the

1304
01:01:55,400 --> 01:01:57,920
Speaker 1: Ukrainian cause made people feel like, oh, we got them

1305
01:01:57,960 --> 01:01:59,720
Speaker 1: on the ropes, like we just do a little more,

1306
01:02:00,080 --> 01:02:02,560
Speaker 1: we're going to be able to have an outcome that

1307
01:02:02,600 --> 01:02:04,880
Speaker 1: we want here. So I think it's interesting to see

1308
01:02:04,880 --> 01:02:06,120
Speaker 1: that public movement it is.

1309
01:02:06,040 --> 01:02:08,360
Speaker 4: And whether or not the intelligence is accurate and the

1310
01:02:08,960 --> 01:02:11,640
Speaker 4: read on the situation that is being pushed in Western

1311
01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:15,880
Speaker 4: media by Western intelligence is accurate. That is exactly from

1312
01:02:15,960 --> 01:02:18,040
Speaker 4: I mean, I think it's pretty clear that's exactly what

1313
01:02:18,280 --> 01:02:22,520
Speaker 4: the Pentagon and the sort of NATO sect wants American

1314
01:02:22,600 --> 01:02:25,400
Speaker 4: voters to think. And as those numbers dipped, there was

1315
01:02:25,560 --> 01:02:27,160
Speaker 4: clearly a lot of nervousness about it.

1316
01:02:27,200 --> 01:02:28,880
Speaker 3: As Kevin McCarthy started.

1317
01:02:28,560 --> 01:02:31,200
Speaker 4: Saying, well, I don't know, there was clearly a lot

1318
01:02:31,200 --> 01:02:34,040
Speaker 4: of nervousness about it. And so again I'm not actually

1319
01:02:34,080 --> 01:02:36,880
Speaker 4: disputing that any of this may have happened. Actually I

1320
01:02:36,880 --> 01:02:39,400
Speaker 4: don't know. And I think that's the best thing people

1321
01:02:39,400 --> 01:02:41,560
Speaker 4: in the media can say right now is clearly to

1322
01:02:41,600 --> 01:02:41,919
Speaker 4: your point.

1323
01:02:42,000 --> 01:02:43,600
Speaker 3: You can talk to people on.

1324
01:02:43,560 --> 01:02:46,480
Speaker 4: The ground in Russia who don't know. Yeah, So for

1325
01:02:46,640 --> 01:02:49,480
Speaker 4: people sitting in their air conditioned studios to say that

1326
01:02:49,480 --> 01:02:51,480
Speaker 4: they know exactly what's happening in Russian and Putin's on

1327
01:02:51,480 --> 01:02:55,080
Speaker 4: his last leg is just nonsense. But whether or not

1328
01:02:55,080 --> 01:03:01,080
Speaker 4: it's true, the intelligence narrative is taking hold. And one

1329
01:03:01,120 --> 01:03:02,960
Speaker 4: of the things I found very interesting about this pole

1330
01:03:03,040 --> 01:03:05,920
Speaker 4: is that when you tied it to China in particular,

1331
01:03:06,160 --> 01:03:08,360
Speaker 4: you get seventy six percent of Americans saying that providing

1332
01:03:08,400 --> 01:03:11,080
Speaker 4: you to Ukraine demonstrates to China and other rivals that

1333
01:03:11,120 --> 01:03:13,160
Speaker 4: the US has quote the will and capability to protect

1334
01:03:13,240 --> 01:03:17,120
Speaker 4: our interests, our allies, and ourselves. That is, that's higher

1335
01:03:17,160 --> 01:03:18,800
Speaker 4: than I think what you would get if you didn't

1336
01:03:18,840 --> 01:03:22,040
Speaker 4: ask that question specifically tied to China for sure, And

1337
01:03:22,080 --> 01:03:26,320
Speaker 4: that's another probably that is going in the binder over

1338
01:03:26,360 --> 01:03:29,560
Speaker 4: on the hill for the press people and the policy people.

1339
01:03:29,640 --> 01:03:31,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, the people that our finger in the wind are

1340
01:03:31,840 --> 01:03:33,160
Speaker 1: going to pay attention to this pole.

1341
01:03:33,480 --> 01:03:34,360
Speaker 5: The last piece of this.

1342
01:03:34,560 --> 01:03:36,520
Speaker 1: Well, there's a lot of questions still open, but this

1343
01:03:36,640 --> 01:03:39,840
Speaker 1: was an important coda as well. So what is going

1344
01:03:39,920 --> 01:03:43,160
Speaker 1: to happen to the Wagner group that Progotion was head of,

1345
01:03:43,200 --> 01:03:46,520
Speaker 1: this group of mercenaries that were not only operating in Ukraine,

1346
01:03:46,520 --> 01:03:49,320
Speaker 1: I mean they were involved in Syria, they are involved

1347
01:03:49,360 --> 01:03:50,000
Speaker 1: in Africa.

1348
01:03:50,080 --> 01:03:52,160
Speaker 5: They really have a pretty wide footprint.

1349
01:03:52,680 --> 01:03:56,040
Speaker 1: Until recently Putin denied that they were even linked to

1350
01:03:56,040 --> 01:03:58,680
Speaker 1: the Russian state, which everyone could clearly see through. But

1351
01:03:59,000 --> 01:04:01,240
Speaker 1: now that is being openly acknowledged, and so put this

1352
01:04:01,320 --> 01:04:02,920
Speaker 1: up on the screen. This is also reporting from the

1353
01:04:02,960 --> 01:04:06,200
Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal. They say that the Kremlin is setting

1354
01:04:06,200 --> 01:04:11,360
Speaker 1: out to seize full control of Wagner's global empire. You've

1355
01:04:11,360 --> 01:04:14,720
Speaker 1: got some details here, Russia's deputy Foreign Minister flew to

1356
01:04:14,800 --> 01:04:18,280
Speaker 1: Damascus to personally deliver a message to Syrian President Basher

1357
01:04:18,360 --> 01:04:23,640
Speaker 1: al Asad. You have senior Russian Foreign Ministry officials phoning

1358
01:04:23,640 --> 01:04:27,240
Speaker 1: the president of the Central African Republic, whose personal bodyguards

1359
01:04:27,240 --> 01:04:32,240
Speaker 1: include Wagner mercenaries. You have government jets from Russia's Ministry

1360
01:04:32,240 --> 01:04:36,800
Speaker 1: of Emergency Situations interesting shuttled from Syria to Mali. Another

1361
01:04:36,840 --> 01:04:40,680
Speaker 1: of Wagner's key for an outposts. The rush of diplomatic activity,

1362
01:04:40,680 --> 01:04:43,080
Speaker 1: reflected Putin's attempt to play down the chaos at home

1363
01:04:43,400 --> 01:04:45,760
Speaker 1: to assure Russia's partners in Africa the Middle East that

1364
01:04:45,800 --> 01:04:50,760
Speaker 1: Wagner operations there could continue without interruption, and that those

1365
01:04:50,800 --> 01:04:54,280
Speaker 1: operations would just now be under new management. There has

1366
01:04:54,400 --> 01:04:57,720
Speaker 1: even on this question of like it would seem obvious

1367
01:04:57,760 --> 01:05:01,320
Speaker 1: to me that Wagner is going to be certainly banned

1368
01:05:01,360 --> 01:05:05,240
Speaker 1: from Russian soil, right, but probably you know, completely subsumed

1369
01:05:05,320 --> 01:05:07,919
Speaker 1: under the Ministry of Defense, et cetera, et cetera. There's

1370
01:05:07,960 --> 01:05:12,320
Speaker 1: also competing reporting from on the ground in Moscow that

1371
01:05:12,920 --> 01:05:16,160
Speaker 1: from you know, from inside of Russia that the Wagner

1372
01:05:16,200 --> 01:05:21,000
Speaker 1: recruitment centers are up and operational even within Russia acting

1373
01:05:21,000 --> 01:05:24,400
Speaker 1: as if nothing happened, which seems insane to me. So

1374
01:05:25,000 --> 01:05:28,720
Speaker 1: even with this, there's also competing reporting about where Progotion

1375
01:05:28,960 --> 01:05:31,800
Speaker 1: actually is. There was some reporting that he is still

1376
01:05:31,800 --> 01:05:34,680
Speaker 1: in Russia in Saint Petersburg, whereas others are saying no, no,

1377
01:05:34,600 --> 01:05:37,800
Speaker 1: he's already you know, he's in Belarus where he is

1378
01:05:37,800 --> 01:05:38,960
Speaker 1: supposed to be based.

1379
01:05:38,680 --> 01:05:40,120
Speaker 5: On the agreement that was struck.

1380
01:05:40,200 --> 01:05:43,439
Speaker 1: So still a lot that is shaking out, a lot

1381
01:05:43,480 --> 01:05:46,160
Speaker 1: of questions about how this all plays out. There's a

1382
01:05:46,200 --> 01:05:48,360
Speaker 1: lot of questions over whether this ends up being just

1383
01:05:48,360 --> 01:05:51,160
Speaker 1: like a historical blip that doesn't really change the course

1384
01:05:51,160 --> 01:05:53,720
Speaker 1: of anything, or whether it ends up being a key

1385
01:05:53,920 --> 01:05:56,680
Speaker 1: lynchpin either for the future of you know, leadership in

1386
01:05:56,760 --> 01:05:58,920
Speaker 1: Russia or the future of the Ukraine War. There's just

1387
01:05:59,080 --> 01:06:01,200
Speaker 1: a lot we don't know, so trying to sort through

1388
01:06:01,240 --> 01:06:02,680
Speaker 1: every piece of information we've got here.

1389
01:06:02,840 --> 01:06:05,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, absolutely, And Wagner has been a.

1390
01:06:05,720 --> 01:06:07,520
Speaker 4: Pretty es central part of Russia as we know it,

1391
01:06:07,600 --> 01:06:10,560
Speaker 4: like to there as he's put a global empire into

1392
01:06:10,640 --> 01:06:13,080
Speaker 4: the way that they function as a country and as

1393
01:06:13,280 --> 01:06:15,720
Speaker 4: a huge player in the geopolitical stage. So this is

1394
01:06:15,720 --> 01:06:18,920
Speaker 4: a big change, But that would explain why some reports

1395
01:06:18,920 --> 01:06:21,080
Speaker 4: say that Wagner offices recruitment offices are still up and

1396
01:06:21,120 --> 01:06:23,760
Speaker 4: running in Russia, because obviously there has to be a

1397
01:06:23,800 --> 01:06:26,560
Speaker 4: way to deal with this in a sense that's not

1398
01:06:26,600 --> 01:06:27,400
Speaker 4: a total divorce.

1399
01:06:27,600 --> 01:06:34,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's take a look at some interesting Airbnb data.

1400
01:06:34,720 --> 01:06:35,680
Speaker 5: Emily, what do you got for us?

1401
01:06:35,680 --> 01:06:37,840
Speaker 4: I was gonna say, Crystal, this is your hobby horse,

1402
01:06:38,000 --> 01:06:42,320
Speaker 4: and actually this data shows exactly why it's a good

1403
01:06:42,320 --> 01:06:45,040
Speaker 4: hobby horse I have right now, because it's extremely consequential

1404
01:06:45,160 --> 01:06:48,320
Speaker 4: and the ripple effect of what's happening in real estate

1405
01:06:48,400 --> 01:06:50,680
Speaker 4: is going to start to play a huge role in

1406
01:06:50,720 --> 01:06:51,280
Speaker 4: our economy.

1407
01:06:51,280 --> 01:06:52,000
Speaker 3: I mean it already is.

1408
01:06:52,080 --> 01:06:54,360
Speaker 4: But ye, what we're going to see sort of downstream

1409
01:06:54,440 --> 01:06:56,200
Speaker 4: of the bigger picture questions. We can go ahead and

1410
01:06:56,200 --> 01:06:58,200
Speaker 4: put the first element up on the screen. This is

1411
01:06:58,280 --> 01:07:01,480
Speaker 4: new data about Airbnb. Be look, this is from Nick Gurley.

1412
01:07:01,480 --> 01:07:04,320
Speaker 4: He says, the Airbnb collapse is real and if you

1413
01:07:04,360 --> 01:07:06,760
Speaker 4: look at this chart on the screen, that could not

1414
01:07:07,000 --> 01:07:09,920
Speaker 4: be more true. Revenues are down nearly fifty percent in

1415
01:07:09,960 --> 01:07:13,240
Speaker 4: cities like Phoenix and Austin. Nick continues, watch out for

1416
01:07:13,280 --> 01:07:16,800
Speaker 4: a wave of forced selling forced selling from airbnb owners

1417
01:07:16,880 --> 01:07:19,160
Speaker 4: later this year and the area's hit hardest by the

1418
01:07:19,200 --> 01:07:24,840
Speaker 4: revenue collapse in those areas Tennessee, Phoenix, Austin, Myrtle Beach,

1419
01:07:24,920 --> 01:07:28,080
Speaker 4: San Antonio, Ashville, Salisbury, Maryland. That one I found a

1420
01:07:28,080 --> 01:07:31,760
Speaker 4: little random, but I guess it's the Eastern Shore, Nashville, Denver, Breckenridge, Neal.

1421
01:07:31,760 --> 01:07:34,760
Speaker 4: One is a lot of vacation destinations Lakeland, Florida, Seattle, Washington,

1422
01:07:34,760 --> 01:07:37,520
Speaker 4: Panama City, Florida, and Orlando, Florida. We can go ahead

1423
01:07:37,520 --> 01:07:39,800
Speaker 4: and put the next element up on the screen as well.

1424
01:07:39,920 --> 01:07:44,400
Speaker 4: Nick continues to parse the data and he says, here,

1425
01:07:44,440 --> 01:07:46,320
Speaker 4: what's scary for the US housing market is just how

1426
01:07:46,360 --> 01:07:47,720
Speaker 4: many Airbnbs there are.

1427
01:07:47,840 --> 01:07:49,560
Speaker 3: Data from all the rooms shows.

1428
01:07:49,640 --> 01:07:54,280
Speaker 4: One million, one million airbnb slash vrbo rentals compared to

1429
01:07:54,320 --> 01:07:57,280
Speaker 4: only five hundred and seventy thousand homes for sale. A

1430
01:07:57,520 --> 01:08:01,280
Speaker 4: million rental properties compared to you know, roughly half of

1431
01:08:01,320 --> 01:08:04,960
Speaker 4: that homes for sale. Creates huge home prices downside if

1432
01:08:05,000 --> 01:08:10,920
Speaker 4: struggling airbnb owners elect to sell, huge home price downside

1433
01:08:10,920 --> 01:08:13,040
Speaker 4: of struggling Airbnb owners elect to sell. I mean, just

1434
01:08:13,080 --> 01:08:15,640
Speaker 4: think about what that looks like if you start to

1435
01:08:15,640 --> 01:08:18,680
Speaker 4: have these these huge crashes in particular markets, and it

1436
01:08:18,720 --> 01:08:20,280
Speaker 4: will be a little bit uneven. I mean, I think

1437
01:08:20,280 --> 01:08:22,400
Speaker 4: there were a lot of places that weren't up on

1438
01:08:22,439 --> 01:08:24,280
Speaker 4: that first chart we were talking about where you're seeing,

1439
01:08:24,280 --> 01:08:27,840
Speaker 4: particularly the South seems to be getting hit. Really just

1440
01:08:27,840 --> 01:08:31,240
Speaker 4: just smacked by this where you're not seeing similar things

1441
01:08:31,280 --> 01:08:35,880
Speaker 4: for other huge airbnb markets New York, Washington, d C.

1442
01:08:36,360 --> 01:08:39,400
Speaker 3: Actually weren't on that list, And Crystal.

1443
01:08:39,080 --> 01:08:41,679
Speaker 4: I want to ask you what that means in terms

1444
01:08:41,720 --> 01:08:46,679
Speaker 4: of how the country experiences these sort of downstream effects

1445
01:08:46,760 --> 01:08:48,479
Speaker 4: of a crash in particular markets.

1446
01:08:48,920 --> 01:08:52,519
Speaker 1: I mean, it's complicated, honestly, because there are a lot

1447
01:08:52,560 --> 01:08:55,800
Speaker 1: of people hoping that housing prices crash. That we're sort

1448
01:08:55,800 --> 01:08:57,479
Speaker 1: of hoping that we might have a downsward in the

1449
01:08:57,479 --> 01:09:01,160
Speaker 1: housing market because between the fact that housing prices have

1450
01:09:01,240 --> 01:09:04,920
Speaker 1: come down a tiny bit, but you have mortgage interest

1451
01:09:05,000 --> 01:09:08,519
Speaker 1: rates so much higher, it has made it so that

1452
01:09:08,640 --> 01:09:10,599
Speaker 1: it is the most I mean, this is the most

1453
01:09:10,680 --> 01:09:14,719
Speaker 1: unaffordable time in history to try to actually purchase a home.

1454
01:09:15,200 --> 01:09:17,400
Speaker 1: So there are a lot of people who are not

1455
01:09:17,560 --> 01:09:20,080
Speaker 1: on the housing ladder, you know, haven't been able to

1456
01:09:20,120 --> 01:09:23,000
Speaker 1: purchase a home, who will be out there going yes, baby,

1457
01:09:23,040 --> 01:09:26,160
Speaker 1: come down, please, because for God's sake, you know, they

1458
01:09:26,200 --> 01:09:27,760
Speaker 1: just seem to go up and up and up and

1459
01:09:27,800 --> 01:09:31,200
Speaker 1: become wildly unobtainable for anyone with just like, you know,

1460
01:09:31,240 --> 01:09:32,639
Speaker 1: a normal middle class income.

1461
01:09:33,320 --> 01:09:34,880
Speaker 5: So there's that aspect of it.

1462
01:09:35,040 --> 01:09:37,760
Speaker 1: You know, there's the Airbnb a specific part of this,

1463
01:09:38,080 --> 01:09:42,800
Speaker 1: which I think is pretty interesting. Airbnb really skyrocketed, like

1464
01:09:42,880 --> 01:09:45,519
Speaker 1: a lot of companies during the pandemic because you have

1465
01:09:45,520 --> 01:09:48,960
Speaker 1: people working from home, you know, white collar professionals who

1466
01:09:49,000 --> 01:09:51,320
Speaker 1: had some money to burn. They're like, you know what

1467
01:09:51,640 --> 01:09:53,719
Speaker 1: if I'm just working from home, that could be anywhere,

1468
01:09:53,920 --> 01:09:56,120
Speaker 1: So why don't I, you know, go somewhere beautiful and

1469
01:09:56,200 --> 01:09:58,040
Speaker 1: runt an Airbnb for a month or a week.

1470
01:09:57,920 --> 01:09:59,519
Speaker 4: Or right never at least my own place or rent

1471
01:09:59,520 --> 01:09:59,960
Speaker 4: my own place.

1472
01:10:00,040 --> 01:10:02,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, I could do that too. And you had in

1473
01:10:02,560 --> 01:10:05,320
Speaker 1: certain especially certain vacation towns. There was a place in

1474
01:10:05,400 --> 01:10:07,400
Speaker 1: upstate New York. Actually I was talking to like a

1475
01:10:07,439 --> 01:10:11,920
Speaker 1: cab driver there that they had seen this huge influx

1476
01:10:12,120 --> 01:10:15,320
Speaker 1: of Airbnb people and all of the properties were being

1477
01:10:15,360 --> 01:10:18,559
Speaker 1: bought up to be rented out as Airbnb's. You've also

1478
01:10:18,600 --> 01:10:20,559
Speaker 1: seen I don't know the specific numbers on this, This

1479
01:10:20,600 --> 01:10:23,040
Speaker 1: is kind of anecdotal, but I'm pretty confident that this

1480
01:10:23,120 --> 01:10:26,360
Speaker 1: is the case you've seen a real shift from Originally

1481
01:10:26,400 --> 01:10:28,600
Speaker 1: Airbnb was like, you know, just one random person and

1482
01:10:28,640 --> 01:10:30,840
Speaker 1: they had a vacation property that when they're not using it,

1483
01:10:30,880 --> 01:10:32,120
Speaker 1: they want to rent it out, etc.

1484
01:10:32,400 --> 01:10:33,240
Speaker 5: And they use Airbnb.

1485
01:10:33,360 --> 01:10:37,439
Speaker 1: Okay, Now it seems to have become very corporatized, where

1486
01:10:37,600 --> 01:10:40,479
Speaker 1: more likely than not, if you're renting an Airbnb, it's

1487
01:10:40,600 --> 01:10:43,080
Speaker 1: part of some property group and they manage a bunch

1488
01:10:43,080 --> 01:10:49,120
Speaker 1: of properties, and that has made the experience more transactional

1489
01:10:49,200 --> 01:10:51,120
Speaker 1: and I think in a lot of cases less pleasant

1490
01:10:51,800 --> 01:10:54,840
Speaker 1: in my personal anecdotal experience, because a lot of times,

1491
01:10:54,880 --> 01:10:56,479
Speaker 1: if we're going to go on a town because I

1492
01:10:56,520 --> 01:10:58,840
Speaker 1: have a family, we'll rent Airbnb because you have more

1493
01:10:58,840 --> 01:11:02,880
Speaker 1: space I like to have kitchen. It has lowered the

1494
01:11:02,920 --> 01:11:05,880
Speaker 1: quality of the experience because you have all these like

1495
01:11:05,960 --> 01:11:09,880
Speaker 1: crazy rules that they put into place. They're more likely

1496
01:11:09,960 --> 01:11:11,760
Speaker 1: to try to rig the system with like photos that

1497
01:11:11,800 --> 01:11:15,840
Speaker 1: are wildly unrepresentative of what the property actually looks like.

1498
01:11:16,240 --> 01:11:19,160
Speaker 1: So I think there's been a degrading quality as Airbnb

1499
01:11:19,240 --> 01:11:23,639
Speaker 1: has become this mainstream juggernaut. And then you know, obviously

1500
01:11:23,640 --> 01:11:26,960
Speaker 1: post pandemic, there's a real lessening of demand because not

1501
01:11:27,080 --> 01:11:29,800
Speaker 1: everyone went back to the office that was a white

1502
01:11:29,800 --> 01:11:31,920
Speaker 1: collar worker, but you did have a lot of a

1503
01:11:31,960 --> 01:11:35,519
Speaker 1: high percentage go back to the office or working remote,

1504
01:11:35,640 --> 01:11:37,240
Speaker 1: you know, only like once or twice a week, which

1505
01:11:37,240 --> 01:11:39,280
Speaker 1: means that you can't just take off for wherever whenever

1506
01:11:39,280 --> 01:11:42,679
Speaker 1: you want to. So that has obviously led to this downturn.

1507
01:11:43,280 --> 01:11:45,960
Speaker 1: And I think the ones that will be offloaded are

1508
01:11:46,000 --> 01:11:49,240
Speaker 1: probably the ones that are run by these larger property companies.

1509
01:11:49,400 --> 01:11:51,080
Speaker 1: Because if you're a person who just has like a

1510
01:11:51,120 --> 01:11:52,680
Speaker 1: vacation home and this is just a way to make

1511
01:11:52,720 --> 01:11:55,439
Speaker 1: some side cash on it, you know, you were probably

1512
01:11:55,479 --> 01:11:58,400
Speaker 1: able to sustain before you were getting all the airbnb income,

1513
01:11:59,320 --> 01:12:01,760
Speaker 1: and so you may be more likely to try to

1514
01:12:01,840 --> 01:12:03,960
Speaker 1: hang on to it. But I think for people who

1515
01:12:04,040 --> 01:12:06,400
Speaker 1: got in because they saw a quick cash opportunity, you

1516
01:12:06,520 --> 01:12:08,640
Speaker 1: probably see a lot getting dumped on the market.

1517
01:12:08,479 --> 01:12:11,839
Speaker 4: You know, and also a property investment. This has basically

1518
01:12:11,840 --> 01:12:13,840
Speaker 4: been a small business and a huge nest tag for

1519
01:12:13,880 --> 01:12:16,240
Speaker 4: a lot of families. It's not and I agree it

1520
01:12:16,280 --> 01:12:17,040
Speaker 4: has been corporatized.

1521
01:12:17,080 --> 01:12:17,760
Speaker 3: That's been bought up.

1522
01:12:18,040 --> 01:12:21,320
Speaker 4: You tend to see like big chains owning tons of properties.

1523
01:12:21,360 --> 01:12:24,559
Speaker 4: Now there is a portion, as you mentioned, of the

1524
01:12:24,600 --> 01:12:28,719
Speaker 4: airbnb population where people were really sustaining themselves by renting

1525
01:12:28,840 --> 01:12:31,160
Speaker 4: you know, their English basement in a city like Washington,

1526
01:12:31,240 --> 01:12:32,880
Speaker 4: d C. And it was a huge part of how

1527
01:12:32,920 --> 01:12:36,240
Speaker 4: they're paying their mortgage. And when this sort of foot

1528
01:12:36,240 --> 01:12:39,640
Speaker 4: traffic stops, it's easy to like Monday morning quarterback this.

1529
01:12:39,880 --> 01:12:41,880
Speaker 4: But I really have always thought that Airbnb is a

1530
01:12:41,880 --> 01:12:46,240
Speaker 4: bad investment because unlike Uber. Although Uber you saw the

1531
01:12:46,240 --> 01:12:48,599
Speaker 4: same thing, I mean with cab drivers who are super

1532
01:12:48,600 --> 01:12:53,439
Speaker 4: powerful lobby and the unions are very powerful. Uber really

1533
01:12:53,560 --> 01:12:55,800
Speaker 4: ended up getting off the ground, although it did have

1534
01:12:55,880 --> 01:12:57,840
Speaker 4: like fits and starts in places like New York or

1535
01:12:57,960 --> 01:13:01,240
Speaker 4: places like California, and the still facing regulation in those places.

1536
01:13:01,840 --> 01:13:04,920
Speaker 4: It was just very obvious to me that I think

1537
01:13:04,960 --> 01:13:07,040
Speaker 4: there was like twenty seventeen, I was in Lisbon and

1538
01:13:07,080 --> 01:13:11,280
Speaker 4: there was anti Airbnb graffiti on the walls of like

1539
01:13:11,320 --> 01:13:15,480
Speaker 4: different buildings because it's so disruptive. Yeah, it's so disruptive,

1540
01:13:15,479 --> 01:13:17,960
Speaker 4: and not in a way that is sort of universally good.

1541
01:13:18,560 --> 01:13:21,600
Speaker 4: Like there are just so many upsides to Uber. With Airbnb,

1542
01:13:21,720 --> 01:13:23,719
Speaker 4: there are really different. I mean, it's a very hard

1543
01:13:23,760 --> 01:13:27,120
Speaker 4: thing for Airbnb even to manage itself. And you know,

1544
01:13:27,160 --> 01:13:29,120
Speaker 4: I think it's been great for a lot of families

1545
01:13:29,240 --> 01:13:32,560
Speaker 4: and people who were able to use it, but regulatory

1546
01:13:32,640 --> 01:13:35,960
Speaker 4: on the regulatory level, I just knew that it was

1547
01:13:36,000 --> 01:13:40,000
Speaker 4: going to end up becoming way more complicated because you

1548
01:13:40,000 --> 01:13:42,320
Speaker 4: know a lot of places people just can't resist regulating

1549
01:13:42,360 --> 01:13:44,160
Speaker 4: things to regulating things to death.

1550
01:13:44,200 --> 01:13:45,360
Speaker 3: But maybe we disagree on them.

1551
01:13:45,479 --> 01:13:47,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, well we definitely disagree on that part with regard

1552
01:13:47,560 --> 01:13:50,439
Speaker 1: to Uber, because I mean, you know, Uber's whole business

1553
01:13:50,479 --> 01:13:53,840
Speaker 1: model relies on basically like labor exploitation. So if you're

1554
01:13:54,280 --> 01:13:57,360
Speaker 1: truly if your business model depends on like breaking labor law,

1555
01:13:57,400 --> 01:13:59,639
Speaker 1: then I think you got a problem with your business

1556
01:13:59,640 --> 01:14:00,559
Speaker 1: model with.

1557
01:14:00,439 --> 01:14:01,640
Speaker 5: Regard to Airbnb's.

1558
01:14:02,000 --> 01:14:03,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this is kind of like it's a

1559
01:14:03,840 --> 01:14:08,439
Speaker 1: classic almost like Yimby debate or Nimby debate, because it's

1560
01:14:08,520 --> 01:14:11,040
Speaker 1: one thing if you're in a high tourist area where

1561
01:14:11,080 --> 01:14:14,040
Speaker 1: all the houses are basically rental houses anyway, that's one thing.

1562
01:14:14,320 --> 01:14:16,320
Speaker 1: It's another thing when you've got like you know, a

1563
01:14:16,360 --> 01:14:19,240
Speaker 1: local community or used to every body being rooted and

1564
01:14:19,280 --> 01:14:23,360
Speaker 1: now you've got this cycle of young partiers or whoever

1565
01:14:23,560 --> 01:14:25,479
Speaker 1: coming in and out of some of the houses on

1566
01:14:25,520 --> 01:14:28,280
Speaker 1: your street, there's going to be a different level of

1567
01:14:28,400 --> 01:14:31,200
Speaker 1: attention paid to that I suppose I saw this article

1568
01:14:31,760 --> 01:14:33,920
Speaker 1: about how apparently there are these apps or you can

1569
01:14:33,960 --> 01:14:34,719
Speaker 1: rent out.

1570
01:14:34,479 --> 01:14:37,200
Speaker 5: Your pool if you have your own pool in your backyard.

1571
01:14:37,240 --> 01:14:37,800
Speaker 5: Are you aware of this.

1572
01:14:37,840 --> 01:14:38,320
Speaker 3: I've heard of that.

1573
01:14:38,720 --> 01:14:40,720
Speaker 4: People also do it with cars. Now there's apps for

1574
01:14:40,800 --> 01:14:42,680
Speaker 4: just your Oh really, people could just come into your

1575
01:14:42,720 --> 01:14:45,320
Speaker 4: driveway and rent your car and go bring it back.

1576
01:14:45,360 --> 01:14:46,000
Speaker 5: That's interesting.

1577
01:14:46,280 --> 01:14:48,200
Speaker 1: I don't mind. I don't hate that one. But yeah,

1578
01:14:48,240 --> 01:14:51,000
Speaker 1: people were I guess in these like you know, nice neighborhoods,

1579
01:14:51,000 --> 01:14:52,920
Speaker 1: they were upset by the fact that you had all

1580
01:14:52,920 --> 01:14:56,400
Speaker 1: this traffic now coming in to frequent these pools.

1581
01:14:56,400 --> 01:14:57,759
Speaker 5: And there's a big debate going.

1582
01:14:57,600 --> 01:15:01,880
Speaker 1: On in Montgomery County, Maryland about whether or not they

1583
01:15:01,920 --> 01:15:05,080
Speaker 1: should be regulated and where are the boundaries between like

1584
01:15:05,200 --> 01:15:07,320
Speaker 1: maintaining the peace in these neighborhoods and.

1585
01:15:07,280 --> 01:15:09,360
Speaker 5: Letting people do what they want with their private property.

1586
01:15:09,479 --> 01:15:10,479
Speaker 3: So anyway, I mean.

1587
01:15:10,479 --> 01:15:13,520
Speaker 4: Legitimate question, and that's the things that really dogs Airbnb

1588
01:15:13,600 --> 01:15:16,080
Speaker 4: in that, like you do have communities that are uprooted

1589
01:15:16,080 --> 01:15:18,760
Speaker 4: by people who don't give a damn about the neighborhood

1590
01:15:18,760 --> 01:15:21,040
Speaker 4: because they're staying there for a couple of days and

1591
01:15:21,280 --> 01:15:22,960
Speaker 4: you know, they move on after a couple of days.

1592
01:15:23,000 --> 01:15:24,519
Speaker 3: So if they're really allowed for a couple of days.

1593
01:15:24,400 --> 01:15:26,240
Speaker 5: Care about the property, I don't care about the neighborhood.

1594
01:15:26,400 --> 01:15:28,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, it doesn't matter that they're embarrassed in front of

1595
01:15:28,200 --> 01:15:29,920
Speaker 4: the neighbors or that their neighbors are upset, because they'll

1596
01:15:29,920 --> 01:15:32,000
Speaker 4: never see those people again in their lives. Yeah, and

1597
01:15:32,040 --> 01:15:35,639
Speaker 4: so it's just it is very disruptive. But on that note, yeah,

1598
01:15:35,760 --> 01:15:37,240
Speaker 4: so that like, it was clear that there was a

1599
01:15:37,240 --> 01:15:39,559
Speaker 4: real sugar high during the pandemic with Airbnb and even

1600
01:15:39,560 --> 01:15:40,759
Speaker 4: a little bit before the pandemic.

1601
01:15:41,240 --> 01:15:42,120
Speaker 3: So, and some of the.

1602
01:15:42,160 --> 01:15:43,760
Speaker 4: Coming down is going to be good because it means

1603
01:15:43,800 --> 01:15:46,440
Speaker 4: there will be what we could agree on as reasonable regulations,

1604
01:15:46,479 --> 01:15:49,599
Speaker 4: even with Uber. But on the other hand, I think,

1605
01:15:50,560 --> 01:15:53,519
Speaker 4: you know, some of it might be a little heavy handed.

1606
01:15:53,800 --> 01:15:55,880
Speaker 4: That said, it really is going to suck for people

1607
01:15:55,880 --> 01:15:58,280
Speaker 4: who build small businesses on the back of this company

1608
01:15:58,320 --> 01:15:59,599
Speaker 4: that was offering something really cool.

1609
01:15:59,800 --> 01:16:01,439
Speaker 5: I agree with that. I do agree with that.

1610
01:16:04,400 --> 01:16:06,840
Speaker 1: Very happy to be joined in studio this morning with

1611
01:16:06,920 --> 01:16:10,000
Speaker 1: Carson Rocanna. He just recently took what was I think

1612
01:16:10,000 --> 01:16:13,600
Speaker 1: a very courageous vote, the lone no vote on a

1613
01:16:13,680 --> 01:16:16,320
Speaker 1: defense budget nearing one trillion dollars.

1614
01:16:16,320 --> 01:16:18,360
Speaker 8: Great to see her, Great to be on the new set.

1615
01:16:18,520 --> 01:16:21,599
Speaker 1: Yeah meanky, welcome one of our first guests on here.

1616
01:16:21,760 --> 01:16:24,800
Speaker 1: So glad, very glad to have you. So tell us about,

1617
01:16:24,840 --> 01:16:26,880
Speaker 1: you know, this defense vote and how you end up

1618
01:16:26,880 --> 01:16:29,560
Speaker 1: being the only loan vote against it when you know

1619
01:16:29,640 --> 01:16:31,080
Speaker 1: you have a lot of Democrats to talk about we

1620
01:16:31,120 --> 01:16:32,599
Speaker 1: got to cut the defense budget. You've got a lot

1621
01:16:32,600 --> 01:16:34,720
Speaker 1: of Republicans now who at least mouthed the words like

1622
01:16:34,760 --> 01:16:36,040
Speaker 1: we got to cut the defense budget.

1623
01:16:36,280 --> 01:16:37,880
Speaker 5: So how does it come down to just you?

1624
01:16:38,120 --> 01:16:39,000
Speaker 8: It was shocking to me.

1625
01:16:39,080 --> 01:16:41,720
Speaker 11: I mean, you have sixty minutes doing a whole expose

1626
01:16:41,720 --> 01:16:47,280
Speaker 11: about how taxpayers are getting fleeced. Defence contractors are jacking

1627
01:16:47,320 --> 01:16:50,840
Speaker 11: up prices thousand percent, five thousand percent, ten thousand percent,

1628
01:16:51,120 --> 01:16:55,479
Speaker 11: four hundred billion dollars of procurement that is unaccountable, where

1629
01:16:55,640 --> 01:16:58,120
Speaker 11: the money is going not to our troops, but in

1630
01:16:58,120 --> 01:17:01,679
Speaker 11: the pockets of these defense lobbyists. We're approaching a trillion

1631
01:17:01,760 --> 01:17:05,960
Speaker 11: dollar defense budget that is fifty six percent of all

1632
01:17:06,000 --> 01:17:08,519
Speaker 11: of our federal budget. You can't talk about deficits and

1633
01:17:08,600 --> 01:17:11,360
Speaker 11: not talk about defense. So I saw the board, everyone

1634
01:17:11,400 --> 01:17:14,599
Speaker 11: is voting yes, and I was the one loan no vote.

1635
01:17:14,600 --> 01:17:17,360
Speaker 11: I'm hoping more people on the Armed Services Committee, will

1636
01:17:17,439 --> 01:17:19,720
Speaker 11: join me. But what I've said is sixty minutes does

1637
01:17:19,720 --> 01:17:21,959
Speaker 11: a better job of oversight than Congress.

1638
01:17:22,080 --> 01:17:22,760
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1639
01:17:22,840 --> 01:17:24,800
Speaker 4: Well, and there are a lot of Democrats who were

1640
01:17:24,800 --> 01:17:27,720
Speaker 4: elected before Putin decided to invade Ukraine. And I want

1641
01:17:27,760 --> 01:17:30,240
Speaker 4: to ask, let's say, hypothetically, in a world where where

1642
01:17:30,240 --> 01:17:32,479
Speaker 4: Putin doesn't invade Ukraine, do you think this vote goes

1643
01:17:32,479 --> 01:17:35,000
Speaker 4: any differently or do you think this is basically the

1644
01:17:35,040 --> 01:17:37,360
Speaker 4: state of affairs in American politics, not just in the

1645
01:17:37,360 --> 01:17:40,280
Speaker 4: Democratic Party, in the Republican Party, where you're going to

1646
01:17:40,280 --> 01:17:43,160
Speaker 4: have one loan no vote on cutting the budget here.

1647
01:17:43,840 --> 01:17:45,639
Speaker 11: Well, I don't think it would have made any difference

1648
01:17:45,640 --> 01:17:48,320
Speaker 11: on the Armed Services Committee because the thing we're doing

1649
01:17:48,360 --> 01:17:50,840
Speaker 11: in Ukraine actually is we need to produce more of

1650
01:17:50,880 --> 01:17:53,479
Speaker 11: a defense industrial base for some of the javelins and

1651
01:17:53,479 --> 01:17:54,080
Speaker 11: the stingers.

1652
01:17:54,320 --> 01:17:55,120
Speaker 8: And that's another thing.

1653
01:17:55,160 --> 01:17:57,720
Speaker 11: I had an amendment in the bill to say, do

1654
01:17:57,760 --> 01:18:00,080
Speaker 11: we actually make any if this in America or how

1655
01:18:00,160 --> 01:18:03,479
Speaker 11: much do we make overseas? The Pentagon literally does not

1656
01:18:03,800 --> 01:18:06,840
Speaker 11: know great of the trillion dollars, how much if it's

1657
01:18:06,880 --> 01:18:09,160
Speaker 11: being spent in manufacturing in the United States, and how

1658
01:18:09,200 --> 01:18:12,679
Speaker 11: much we're getting from overseas. And so what we should

1659
01:18:12,720 --> 01:18:16,559
Speaker 11: be doing is building our defense industrial base or industrial base,

1660
01:18:16,920 --> 01:18:19,919
Speaker 11: but what we are doing instead is lining the pockets

1661
01:18:19,920 --> 01:18:23,000
Speaker 11: of defense contractors on things like the F thirty five,

1662
01:18:23,040 --> 01:18:26,080
Speaker 11: which have had cost overruns. We've got a B twenty

1663
01:18:26,120 --> 01:18:29,519
Speaker 11: one Air Force plane that is far more sophisticated, yet

1664
01:18:29,560 --> 01:18:33,040
Speaker 11: we're still funding the B one, which isn't as good

1665
01:18:33,080 --> 01:18:34,920
Speaker 11: as the B twenty one. I mean, you can just

1666
01:18:34,960 --> 01:18:38,559
Speaker 11: go line by line and you can point to things

1667
01:18:38,560 --> 01:18:41,559
Speaker 11: that are duplicative, things that are not necessary. We've got

1668
01:18:41,640 --> 01:18:45,360
Speaker 11: over eight almost eight hundred bases overseas that were designed

1669
01:18:45,360 --> 01:18:47,280
Speaker 11: at the time of the Cold War, and we have

1670
01:18:47,320 --> 01:18:50,479
Speaker 11: new threats now, new challenges, and it's never been updated.

1671
01:18:50,680 --> 01:18:53,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, so, I mean, I think everybody can see the

1672
01:18:53,160 --> 01:18:55,840
Speaker 1: logic of that. However, you know, this is not the

1673
01:18:55,880 --> 01:18:58,519
Speaker 1: first time where you've had these lopsided votes, or where

1674
01:18:58,520 --> 01:19:00,639
Speaker 1: you've had politicians who say, in theory, yes we should

1675
01:19:00,640 --> 01:19:02,799
Speaker 1: cut the defense budget, or we should audit the Pentagon

1676
01:19:02,880 --> 01:19:06,360
Speaker 1: or things like that, but in reality they never actually

1677
01:19:06,479 --> 01:19:08,839
Speaker 1: vote in that direction or put any pressure in that direction.

1678
01:19:09,520 --> 01:19:12,240
Speaker 1: Is it because of the money involved in terms of

1679
01:19:12,520 --> 01:19:15,200
Speaker 1: the campaign contributions. Is it because there are so many

1680
01:19:15,280 --> 01:19:18,120
Speaker 1: jobs from these programs that are spread out across the country.

1681
01:19:18,120 --> 01:19:20,040
Speaker 5: Like, why is this such a difficult nut to crack?

1682
01:19:20,320 --> 01:19:23,960
Speaker 11: Well, three reasons. One of the defense contractor campaign contributions.

1683
01:19:24,000 --> 01:19:27,280
Speaker 11: I mean, we can't underestimate the role of their lobbyists

1684
01:19:27,320 --> 01:19:30,520
Speaker 11: and the financing that they provide campaigns.

1685
01:19:30,840 --> 01:19:32,960
Speaker 8: Two, just look at my Twitter feed.

1686
01:19:33,000 --> 01:19:36,280
Speaker 11: You get attacked as a week on national security. Do

1687
01:19:36,320 --> 01:19:39,240
Speaker 11: you not want to stand up to China and Russia?

1688
01:19:39,320 --> 01:19:42,000
Speaker 11: Of course I'm strong in national security. I actually want

1689
01:19:42,000 --> 01:19:44,280
Speaker 11: to be investing in the things that are going to

1690
01:19:44,320 --> 01:19:48,559
Speaker 11: make us safe in AI and naval superiority, in the

1691
01:19:48,600 --> 01:19:51,679
Speaker 11: modern technology, and having a defense industrial base as opposed

1692
01:19:51,680 --> 01:19:55,679
Speaker 11: to the legacy industry that isn't a modern national security strategy.

1693
01:19:55,840 --> 01:19:56,719
Speaker 8: And Third, there is.

1694
01:19:56,640 --> 01:19:58,479
Speaker 11: This concern with jobs, But you know what, if you

1695
01:19:58,560 --> 01:20:01,839
Speaker 11: really wanted to have job, there are many better ways

1696
01:20:01,880 --> 01:20:05,200
Speaker 11: of creating these jobs. I mean, build a defense industrial

1697
01:20:05,200 --> 01:20:08,800
Speaker 11: base in these communities instead of the overseas bases. Put

1698
01:20:08,800 --> 01:20:12,080
Speaker 11: a steel plan. I was just in Johnstown, Pennsylvania. Let's

1699
01:20:12,080 --> 01:20:15,040
Speaker 11: build modern steel, which is going to be necessary. Let's

1700
01:20:15,080 --> 01:20:19,080
Speaker 11: have all defense production and key components being done in

1701
01:20:19,120 --> 01:20:20,000
Speaker 11: the United States.

1702
01:20:20,080 --> 01:20:22,080
Speaker 1: I think people will honestly be shocked to find out

1703
01:20:22,080 --> 01:20:23,320
Speaker 1: that that's not already the case.

1704
01:20:23,439 --> 01:20:25,599
Speaker 8: Yeah, it is. It's not the case.

1705
01:20:25,640 --> 01:20:28,240
Speaker 11: I mean, it's not only not the case that we

1706
01:20:28,280 --> 01:20:31,080
Speaker 11: aren't making or defense equipment in the United States. We

1707
01:20:31,200 --> 01:20:34,639
Speaker 11: don't know the Pentagon can't tell you which country they're

1708
01:20:34,680 --> 01:20:35,800
Speaker 11: getting what from.

1709
01:20:35,840 --> 01:20:38,320
Speaker 8: In my amendment just says let's at least track it.

1710
01:20:38,439 --> 01:20:41,320
Speaker 11: But you want to create jobs, just do that as

1711
01:20:41,360 --> 01:20:44,160
Speaker 11: a baseline, say make the things in the United States.

1712
01:20:44,240 --> 01:20:47,080
Speaker 4: Well, And that's what's incredibly frustrating, because the argument actually

1713
01:20:47,120 --> 01:20:49,799
Speaker 4: that cutting and having a more precise and targeted budget

1714
01:20:49,840 --> 01:20:52,040
Speaker 4: would make us much more powerful, I think is clearly

1715
01:20:52,080 --> 01:20:54,000
Speaker 4: superior to the argument that we should just be throwing

1716
01:20:54,040 --> 01:20:56,840
Speaker 4: money in every direct direction and seeing what happens. But

1717
01:20:56,880 --> 01:20:59,880
Speaker 4: it never seems so to win out. And I want

1718
01:20:59,920 --> 01:21:01,760
Speaker 4: to throw that to you as a question with the

1719
01:21:01,840 --> 01:21:05,520
Speaker 4: context that you know better than anyone else of particularly

1720
01:21:05,600 --> 01:21:07,799
Speaker 4: the politics and the dynamics of being on a committee

1721
01:21:07,880 --> 01:21:10,639
Speaker 4: like Armed Services and what that means for what your

1722
01:21:10,640 --> 01:21:14,000
Speaker 4: colleagues different motivations are when it comes to taking these votes.

1723
01:21:14,720 --> 01:21:16,799
Speaker 11: Well, again, I think the biggest fear is this week

1724
01:21:16,840 --> 01:21:20,000
Speaker 11: on national security that you're going to be attacked in

1725
01:21:20,080 --> 01:21:22,880
Speaker 11: that way and you talk to the actual generals and

1726
01:21:22,920 --> 01:21:24,720
Speaker 11: they'll say, it's not how much you spend, it's how

1727
01:21:24,760 --> 01:21:27,360
Speaker 11: you spend it. And have a more precise and more

1728
01:21:27,400 --> 01:21:31,120
Speaker 11: modern national security strategy, have a stronger defense industrial base,

1729
01:21:31,160 --> 01:21:33,559
Speaker 11: think about what the actual challenges with China and Rush

1730
01:21:33,600 --> 01:21:36,000
Speaker 11: you are and how you prepare for that. But people

1731
01:21:36,080 --> 01:21:38,400
Speaker 11: are afraid to have these votes. Now, when we go

1732
01:21:38,439 --> 01:21:41,120
Speaker 11: to the floor, you're going to probably have sixty Progressives

1733
01:21:41,200 --> 01:21:43,240
Speaker 11: vote no, and you're going to have some people on

1734
01:21:43,560 --> 01:21:46,040
Speaker 11: the Republican side vote no. But until you get those

1735
01:21:46,080 --> 01:21:48,720
Speaker 11: folks on the committee and you start to do the

1736
01:21:48,760 --> 01:21:51,439
Speaker 11: oversight on the committee, things aren't going to change.

1737
01:21:51,479 --> 01:21:52,719
Speaker 8: And there's some obvious cases.

1738
01:21:52,760 --> 01:21:55,400
Speaker 11: I mean, I had held the TRANSD I'm hearing where

1739
01:21:55,439 --> 01:21:59,000
Speaker 11: trans I'm admitted to basically fleecing the American public. They

1740
01:21:59,040 --> 01:22:01,240
Speaker 11: had to pay sixteen million million dollars back to the

1741
01:22:01,280 --> 01:22:03,800
Speaker 11: taxpayers because of that hearing. I mean, this is case

1742
01:22:03,840 --> 01:22:06,360
Speaker 11: after case after case. We're not doing the work.

1743
01:22:06,439 --> 01:22:08,840
Speaker 3: But leadership doesn't want to put those people on the committee.

1744
01:22:09,600 --> 01:22:11,040
Speaker 8: Well, it's both.

1745
01:22:11,080 --> 01:22:13,160
Speaker 11: Some of those folks don't want to be on the

1746
01:22:13,240 --> 01:22:16,559
Speaker 11: connet because they don't want to be part of it,

1747
01:22:16,640 --> 01:22:19,000
Speaker 11: and sometimes so we need more of them to actually

1748
01:22:19,040 --> 01:22:22,200
Speaker 11: be on the committee. And sometimes it's leadership that doesn't

1749
01:22:22,200 --> 01:22:27,599
Speaker 11: want to have these things be contentious. But here's the

1750
01:22:27,640 --> 01:22:31,000
Speaker 11: point that in the country, the vast majority of people

1751
01:22:31,040 --> 01:22:33,200
Speaker 11: know that we've got to bloate a defense budget. This

1752
01:22:33,320 --> 01:22:36,479
Speaker 11: is not an unpopular position. They know we're spending way

1753
01:22:36,520 --> 01:22:39,080
Speaker 11: too much on overseas bases that should be spent here.

1754
01:22:39,240 --> 01:22:41,519
Speaker 11: They know that we should be making these things in

1755
01:22:41,560 --> 01:22:44,360
Speaker 11: the United States and not. We have a supply chain

1756
01:22:44,400 --> 01:22:48,880
Speaker 11: that is offshoring jobs. So this could be a populist

1757
01:22:48,920 --> 01:22:49,920
Speaker 11: popular position.

1758
01:22:50,120 --> 01:22:53,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you do see, as I mentioned, some Republicans

1759
01:22:53,800 --> 01:22:57,439
Speaker 1: who have rhetorically embraced the theoretical idea of cutting the

1760
01:22:57,439 --> 01:22:59,960
Speaker 1: defense budget. Now usually they're like, we got to take

1761
01:23:00,080 --> 01:23:01,320
Speaker 1: out the wokeness or whatever.

1762
01:23:01,680 --> 01:23:03,280
Speaker 5: That's kind of the direction that they go with it.

1763
01:23:03,640 --> 01:23:08,040
Speaker 1: But you saw during the debt ceiling fight originally when

1764
01:23:08,160 --> 01:23:10,960
Speaker 1: McCarthy became speaker, there were some Republicans who were like,

1765
01:23:11,000 --> 01:23:12,360
Speaker 1: part of the deal is going to be we're going

1766
01:23:12,400 --> 01:23:14,080
Speaker 1: to cut the defense budget. And then when it actually

1767
01:23:14,080 --> 01:23:15,599
Speaker 1: comes down to it, not only have they not cut,

1768
01:23:15,680 --> 01:23:18,880
Speaker 1: they actually increase funding. So what do you make of

1769
01:23:18,880 --> 01:23:21,160
Speaker 1: some of the new Republican rhetoric on this. I think

1770
01:23:21,439 --> 01:23:24,440
Speaker 1: you're someone who, to your credit, has worked with Republicans

1771
01:23:24,600 --> 01:23:26,559
Speaker 1: where you can, where there's good faith agreement.

1772
01:23:26,600 --> 01:23:28,000
Speaker 5: I think you've been very effective at that.

1773
01:23:28,479 --> 01:23:30,599
Speaker 1: So do you think that there are some partners on

1774
01:23:30,640 --> 01:23:34,160
Speaker 1: the Republican side to get serious about tracking the funding,

1775
01:23:34,560 --> 01:23:37,439
Speaker 1: auditing the Pentagon, and ultimately bringing down the numbers.

1776
01:23:37,840 --> 01:23:38,200
Speaker 8: I do.

1777
01:23:38,760 --> 01:23:41,160
Speaker 11: I think there are Republicans who are concerned of the

1778
01:23:41,280 --> 01:23:44,320
Speaker 11: last twenty years of endless wars, and who think that

1779
01:23:44,400 --> 01:23:46,920
Speaker 11: the money would have been better spent on building our

1780
01:23:47,000 --> 01:23:50,439
Speaker 11: manufacturing base, our infrastructure, and our working class, and who

1781
01:23:50,479 --> 01:23:52,559
Speaker 11: are willing to take a look at the top line

1782
01:23:52,600 --> 01:23:57,160
Speaker 11: of the defense number and see if what could be cut,

1783
01:23:57,200 --> 01:24:00,120
Speaker 11: and what are the overseas bases that aren't serving our

1784
01:24:00,360 --> 01:24:04,240
Speaker 11: anymore and investing that in our communities instead. Why are

1785
01:24:04,280 --> 01:24:06,920
Speaker 11: defense contractors fleecing the American public?

1786
01:24:06,920 --> 01:24:09,000
Speaker 8: Why are we offshoring some of these jobs.

1787
01:24:09,560 --> 01:24:12,080
Speaker 11: You can have that conversation with some of the Republicans,

1788
01:24:12,280 --> 01:24:14,000
Speaker 11: and my hope is over the next few years it

1789
01:24:14,080 --> 01:24:16,120
Speaker 11: shows up and in the committee votes.

1790
01:24:16,439 --> 01:24:18,559
Speaker 4: You know, it's interesting because the point you're making about

1791
01:24:18,560 --> 01:24:20,920
Speaker 4: manufacturing parts of the United States obviously is a huge

1792
01:24:20,920 --> 01:24:23,040
Speaker 4: part of the Chips Act, and as threats seem to

1793
01:24:23,040 --> 01:24:26,400
Speaker 4: be increasing towards Taiwan, a reason that that's so such

1794
01:24:26,400 --> 01:24:28,519
Speaker 4: a top level priority for the United States is because

1795
01:24:28,560 --> 01:24:30,479
Speaker 4: we weren't making chips here and because we won't have

1796
01:24:30,520 --> 01:24:32,479
Speaker 4: the ability to do that for a long time. So

1797
01:24:32,560 --> 01:24:35,599
Speaker 4: how large is the spectrum of China looming over your colleagues?

1798
01:24:36,280 --> 01:24:38,400
Speaker 4: And to what extent is it also just sort of

1799
01:24:38,439 --> 01:24:40,599
Speaker 4: a cope or an excuse to say, well, we can't

1800
01:24:40,640 --> 01:24:41,759
Speaker 4: cut the funding now.

1801
01:24:42,120 --> 01:24:42,880
Speaker 3: There's never a.

1802
01:24:42,800 --> 01:24:44,800
Speaker 4: Good time to cut Pentagon funding. When it comes down

1803
01:24:44,800 --> 01:24:46,679
Speaker 4: to it, it seems like China is the reason right now.

1804
01:24:46,880 --> 01:24:50,240
Speaker 11: Well, look, China is a rail threat in the Taiwan Straits.

1805
01:24:50,240 --> 01:24:53,439
Speaker 11: I mean, I'm not saying dismiss it, but what do

1806
01:24:53,520 --> 01:24:56,160
Speaker 11: we need to do. We need to provide Taiwan with

1807
01:24:56,280 --> 01:24:59,240
Speaker 11: some of the weapons to have deterrens.

1808
01:24:58,720 --> 01:24:59,200
Speaker 8: To do that.

1809
01:24:59,240 --> 01:25:01,839
Speaker 11: We don't have enough of a defense industrial base because

1810
01:25:01,920 --> 01:25:05,160
Speaker 11: those weapons are being sent to Ukraine. So fine, if

1811
01:25:05,160 --> 01:25:08,080
Speaker 11: there was a provision to increase the defense industrial base,

1812
01:25:08,479 --> 01:25:10,920
Speaker 11: I'd support it. Does that mean we need the next

1813
01:25:11,800 --> 01:25:13,960
Speaker 11: B one bomber when we already have the B twenty

1814
01:25:13,960 --> 01:25:16,120
Speaker 11: one bomber? No? Does that mean we need more F

1815
01:25:16,200 --> 01:25:18,280
Speaker 11: thirty fives. No, Does it mean we may need more

1816
01:25:18,520 --> 01:25:22,919
Speaker 11: naval superiority naval submarines. Yes, So let's have the full context.

1817
01:25:23,000 --> 01:25:26,080
Speaker 11: Now here's why we don't have one hundred percent production

1818
01:25:26,240 --> 01:25:28,920
Speaker 11: in the United States or even attempt to do that,

1819
01:25:29,479 --> 01:25:32,240
Speaker 11: because the defense contractors say, oh, well, if we do

1820
01:25:32,280 --> 01:25:35,200
Speaker 11: it all in the United States, then the Europeans and

1821
01:25:35,240 --> 01:25:37,120
Speaker 11: others won't buy our weapons.

1822
01:25:37,240 --> 01:25:38,160
Speaker 8: I don't believe that.

1823
01:25:38,320 --> 01:25:41,520
Speaker 11: I believe that they're still going to buy the most innovative,

1824
01:25:41,680 --> 01:25:44,880
Speaker 11: the best military if we're making it here and it's

1825
01:25:44,920 --> 01:25:47,840
Speaker 11: going But in these talking points, you get these talking

1826
01:25:47,880 --> 01:25:53,160
Speaker 11: points by defense contractors and they defeat Donald Norcross in

1827
01:25:53,200 --> 01:25:55,400
Speaker 11: New Jersey had an amendment, let's move to one hundred

1828
01:25:55,400 --> 01:26:00,040
Speaker 11: percent production here, and they didn't pass the Senate. So

1829
01:26:00,080 --> 01:26:04,320
Speaker 11: these defense contractors have a huge sway on this politics,

1830
01:26:04,360 --> 01:26:06,439
Speaker 11: and I don't think the American people know exactly what's

1831
01:26:06,479 --> 01:26:06,920
Speaker 11: going on.

1832
01:26:07,120 --> 01:26:09,400
Speaker 1: I see it as a true failure of democracy because

1833
01:26:09,439 --> 01:26:11,400
Speaker 1: I think if you pulled something like that, like our

1834
01:26:11,400 --> 01:26:14,599
Speaker 1: defense production should be made in America, No, it'd.

1835
01:26:14,400 --> 01:26:15,240
Speaker 5: Be like ninety percent.

1836
01:26:15,320 --> 01:26:18,920
Speaker 1: Now, it would only be defense contractors basically that would

1837
01:26:19,240 --> 01:26:19,960
Speaker 1: say no, we.

1838
01:26:19,960 --> 01:26:22,320
Speaker 5: Should keep it overseas. We like it the way it is.

1839
01:26:22,920 --> 01:26:24,840
Speaker 1: Conners, and I wanted to ask you about another issue

1840
01:26:24,840 --> 01:26:28,280
Speaker 1: that you've been vocal on, which is the restarting of

1841
01:26:28,400 --> 01:26:30,600
Speaker 1: student loan payments, and also you know, the issue of

1842
01:26:30,600 --> 01:26:34,840
Speaker 1: student loan debt in general. We're expecting, possibly today, probably today,

1843
01:26:35,200 --> 01:26:40,280
Speaker 1: just ruling from the Supreme Court on President Biden's executive

1844
01:26:40,360 --> 01:26:43,439
Speaker 1: order to cancel ten thousand dollars in student debt. Could

1845
01:26:43,479 --> 01:26:45,880
Speaker 1: you just talk big picture about the issue of student debt,

1846
01:26:45,880 --> 01:26:47,920
Speaker 1: why this is something you have focused on, and what

1847
01:26:47,960 --> 01:26:49,639
Speaker 1: an impact it has on the US economy.

1848
01:26:50,040 --> 01:26:51,720
Speaker 11: Well, I had to take out about one hundred and

1849
01:26:51,760 --> 01:26:54,759
Speaker 11: fifty thousand dollars of student debt when I was finishing

1850
01:26:54,760 --> 01:26:57,559
Speaker 11: my education. And I've done well in life and have

1851
01:26:57,600 --> 01:27:00,000
Speaker 11: been fortunate, but there were times in my twenties where

1852
01:27:00,040 --> 01:27:02,240
Speaker 11: I had to be on a forbearance where I couldn't

1853
01:27:02,800 --> 01:27:05,759
Speaker 11: make the monthly payment, and you just saw the debt

1854
01:27:05,840 --> 01:27:08,839
Speaker 11: keep piling up. And anyone who's that student debt knows

1855
01:27:09,040 --> 01:27:11,400
Speaker 11: that there's the debt you take and then there's the

1856
01:27:11,439 --> 01:27:14,000
Speaker 11: amount you end up repaying with interest. And as far more,

1857
01:27:14,320 --> 01:27:18,280
Speaker 11: this is crushing young people. They can't start families. They

1858
01:27:18,280 --> 01:27:21,040
Speaker 11: can't buy a house, they can't start a business, and

1859
01:27:21,160 --> 01:27:24,360
Speaker 11: no other country in the world makes you go into

1860
01:27:24,800 --> 01:27:27,439
Speaker 11: this kind of debt just to get an education, just

1861
01:27:27,479 --> 01:27:30,559
Speaker 11: to get whether it's vocational education, whether it's community college,

1862
01:27:30,680 --> 01:27:33,800
Speaker 11: whether it's an advanced degree. And so in my view,

1863
01:27:33,840 --> 01:27:36,040
Speaker 11: we have to have public college be free. But at

1864
01:27:36,040 --> 01:27:38,920
Speaker 11: the very least we should be forgiving this debt for

1865
01:27:39,040 --> 01:27:41,600
Speaker 11: working class and middle class families. Here's the point. The

1866
01:27:41,600 --> 01:27:45,240
Speaker 11: President promised that and people relied on that. He said, Okay,

1867
01:27:45,240 --> 01:27:47,879
Speaker 11: twenty thousand dollars of your debt is going to be forgiven.

1868
01:27:47,920 --> 01:27:50,040
Speaker 11: Now people said, okay, I'm going to plan for that.

1869
01:27:50,120 --> 01:27:54,680
Speaker 11: I'm going to rely on the president's commitment. We have

1870
01:27:54,760 --> 01:27:57,360
Speaker 11: to live up to that commitment. And so if this

1871
01:27:57,520 --> 01:28:00,799
Speaker 11: is struck down, at the very least, need to pause

1872
01:28:00,920 --> 01:28:03,880
Speaker 11: any repayments until we make good on the debt, and

1873
01:28:03,920 --> 01:28:06,000
Speaker 11: we need to look at other authority that the president

1874
01:28:06,080 --> 01:28:07,280
Speaker 11: can use to forgive the debt.

1875
01:28:07,320 --> 01:28:08,880
Speaker 4: And I was just going to ask a follow up

1876
01:28:08,920 --> 01:28:10,640
Speaker 4: on that last part of the question. How likely do

1877
01:28:10,720 --> 01:28:12,920
Speaker 4: you think it is that the Biden administration starts to

1878
01:28:12,960 --> 01:28:16,599
Speaker 4: explore some of these creative Maybe I would say legally

1879
01:28:16,640 --> 01:28:20,920
Speaker 4: creative solutions to forgiving student debt on a mediate basis

1880
01:28:20,920 --> 01:28:23,599
Speaker 4: where it's not so staggered and uncertain for so many

1881
01:28:23,640 --> 01:28:25,840
Speaker 4: people who have these loans out. If the Supreme Court

1882
01:28:25,920 --> 01:28:28,280
Speaker 4: makes a decision that people expected to make here, how

1883
01:28:28,400 --> 01:28:30,360
Speaker 4: likely do you think it is that the administration sort

1884
01:28:30,360 --> 01:28:32,479
Speaker 4: of starts to take a serious look at those other avenues.

1885
01:28:32,560 --> 01:28:34,240
Speaker 11: I think they're going to look at the Higher Education

1886
01:28:34,360 --> 01:28:38,480
Speaker 11: Act as one avenue forgiving the loans, for stopping the repayment.

1887
01:28:38,840 --> 01:28:43,320
Speaker 11: There's going to be too much expectation anger demand from

1888
01:28:43,360 --> 01:28:46,759
Speaker 11: young people around this country, not just in their twenties, thirties,

1889
01:28:46,800 --> 01:28:49,800
Speaker 11: forties who've had this debt, to say, we relied on

1890
01:28:49,880 --> 01:28:50,479
Speaker 11: this promise.

1891
01:28:50,760 --> 01:28:51,719
Speaker 8: We need to do something.

1892
01:28:51,760 --> 01:28:54,040
Speaker 11: And by the way, is if the economy, if you

1893
01:28:54,080 --> 01:28:56,639
Speaker 11: believe the economists, and there's a danger if it's slowing,

1894
01:28:56,880 --> 01:28:58,679
Speaker 11: the last thing you want to do is to take

1895
01:28:58,760 --> 01:29:02,439
Speaker 11: money away from people which they're spending on restaurants or

1896
01:29:02,479 --> 01:29:05,880
Speaker 11: on houses and further slowcown consumer spending. It could actually

1897
01:29:05,920 --> 01:29:07,080
Speaker 11: help trigger a recession.

1898
01:29:07,439 --> 01:29:09,360
Speaker 1: Do you see this as a political issue for the

1899
01:29:09,360 --> 01:29:12,840
Speaker 1: president's re election because young people were very important to

1900
01:29:12,920 --> 01:29:15,439
Speaker 1: him defeating Donald Trump, and what was you know, really

1901
01:29:15,439 --> 01:29:18,240
Speaker 1: a kind of too close for comfort election last time

1902
01:29:18,280 --> 01:29:21,559
Speaker 1: around in the few key states. Now you've had his

1903
01:29:21,640 --> 01:29:25,960
Speaker 1: approval rating with young people has really deteriorated. They had

1904
01:29:26,000 --> 01:29:29,880
Speaker 1: a majority favorable among young people when he started his administration.

1905
01:29:30,040 --> 01:29:32,120
Speaker 1: Now it is definitely underwater, and it's one of his

1906
01:29:32,160 --> 01:29:35,080
Speaker 1: lowest performing demographic groups. So do you see this as

1907
01:29:35,080 --> 01:29:38,080
Speaker 1: a real political risk for him too going into probably

1908
01:29:38,120 --> 01:29:39,639
Speaker 1: another matchup against Donald Trump.

1909
01:29:39,840 --> 01:29:40,760
Speaker 8: I do you know.

1910
01:29:40,800 --> 01:29:44,680
Speaker 11: I just keynoted the Young Democrats of America convention of

1911
01:29:45,400 --> 01:29:47,760
Speaker 11: five hundred and seven hundred folks there, and I said,

1912
01:29:47,960 --> 01:29:50,360
Speaker 11: it's hard to be young in America in twenty twenty three.

1913
01:29:50,960 --> 01:29:53,719
Speaker 11: Folks have stood a debt and before I could even

1914
01:29:53,800 --> 01:29:57,120
Speaker 11: say anything, people stood up and say, cancel it, cancel it.

1915
01:29:57,160 --> 01:30:01,559
Speaker 11: I mean, this is top of mind for young people.

1916
01:30:02,240 --> 01:30:05,479
Speaker 11: This is something that this is one of the reasons

1917
01:30:05,520 --> 01:30:09,040
Speaker 11: they voted for the president to help address this issue.

1918
01:30:09,400 --> 01:30:13,200
Speaker 11: And we need to do everything possible to make good

1919
01:30:13,240 --> 01:30:15,880
Speaker 11: on that promise. And young people, they're not unrealistic. They'll

1920
01:30:15,920 --> 01:30:18,320
Speaker 11: be able to tell if we're doing everything and if

1921
01:30:18,479 --> 01:30:21,719
Speaker 11: we put up the fight then it's not working.

1922
01:30:21,720 --> 01:30:24,280
Speaker 8: But we've done everything. They'll understand.

1923
01:30:24,360 --> 01:30:26,120
Speaker 11: But what we can't do is just throw up our

1924
01:30:26,160 --> 01:30:29,360
Speaker 11: hands if the Supreme Court comes out with a wrong

1925
01:30:29,400 --> 01:30:31,680
Speaker 11: decision and not use all the authorities we have. I

1926
01:30:31,720 --> 01:30:34,000
Speaker 11: believe the authority is there to at the very least

1927
01:30:34,000 --> 01:30:36,679
Speaker 11: pause the payments until the debt is forgiven.

1928
01:30:36,840 --> 01:30:39,960
Speaker 1: So one last for you, President Biden. There are a

1929
01:30:40,000 --> 01:30:42,559
Speaker 1: lot of voters who have concerns about his age, about

1930
01:30:42,560 --> 01:30:45,640
Speaker 1: his fitness for office. Even within the Democratic base, you

1931
01:30:45,640 --> 01:30:47,320
Speaker 1: have a majority who say, hey, we'd like to have

1932
01:30:47,400 --> 01:30:48,960
Speaker 1: other options here, we might like to go in a

1933
01:30:48,960 --> 01:30:52,519
Speaker 1: different direction. He has two challenges right now, Mary Williamson

1934
01:30:52,600 --> 01:30:55,519
Speaker 1: and RFK Junior. The DNC is not planning on holding

1935
01:30:55,640 --> 01:30:58,800
Speaker 1: any primary debates. Democratic Party has talked a big game

1936
01:30:58,840 --> 01:31:02,759
Speaker 1: about democracy. Should the president debate his primary challengers?

1937
01:31:03,120 --> 01:31:05,960
Speaker 11: Well, look in the past, the presidents have not debated

1938
01:31:06,160 --> 01:31:09,000
Speaker 11: their challenges. I don't think Barack Obama did or Bill

1939
01:31:09,040 --> 01:31:13,480
Speaker 11: Clinton did. But if the polling continues to be very competitive,

1940
01:31:13,479 --> 01:31:14,599
Speaker 11: then they have to look at it.

1941
01:31:14,640 --> 01:31:15,680
Speaker 8: But let's see where we are.

1942
01:31:16,160 --> 01:31:17,519
Speaker 5: What does competitive mean to you?

1943
01:31:18,160 --> 01:31:19,599
Speaker 8: I think that is a judgment call.

1944
01:31:19,680 --> 01:31:22,400
Speaker 11: If it looks like someone is going to be competitive

1945
01:31:22,439 --> 01:31:26,320
Speaker 11: in a state, or if they're actually polling high come

1946
01:31:27,040 --> 01:31:28,800
Speaker 11: the fall and I think you have to look at it.

1947
01:31:28,840 --> 01:31:31,240
Speaker 11: But but I think you have to have that threshold

1948
01:31:31,400 --> 01:31:33,559
Speaker 11: crossed when you're having incumbent president.

1949
01:31:33,640 --> 01:31:35,680
Speaker 1: So do you think that you know something like the

1950
01:31:35,720 --> 01:31:38,040
Speaker 1: polling criteria that we had in previous debates or that

1951
01:31:38,080 --> 01:31:40,160
Speaker 1: the Republicans have for their debates. I think what do

1952
01:31:40,200 --> 01:31:41,880
Speaker 1: they have it at? Like three percent or five percent

1953
01:31:41,960 --> 01:31:45,519
Speaker 1: or something like that. Anyway, do you think like a

1954
01:31:45,560 --> 01:31:49,879
Speaker 1: polling threshold like that, because listen, just because previous incumbent

1955
01:31:49,920 --> 01:31:52,880
Speaker 1: presidents didn't debate isn't really an excuse if we're leaning

1956
01:31:52,880 --> 01:31:55,400
Speaker 1: into the democracy is an important thing and let's have

1957
01:31:55,439 --> 01:31:57,240
Speaker 1: the people have a choice and hear everybody out.

1958
01:31:57,320 --> 01:31:59,000
Speaker 3: No, the president has been this age at the time

1959
01:31:59,040 --> 01:31:59,840
Speaker 3: of reelection either.

1960
01:32:00,520 --> 01:32:02,200
Speaker 11: You know, if you just had a three percent or

1961
01:32:02,240 --> 01:32:04,439
Speaker 11: so cut off, everyone is going to want to get

1962
01:32:04,439 --> 01:32:07,439
Speaker 11: on stage with an incumbent president. So I do think

1963
01:32:07,439 --> 01:32:10,080
Speaker 11: if there's someone who has a serious challenge and in

1964
01:32:10,120 --> 01:32:13,280
Speaker 11: a given state come the fall, then you can make

1965
01:32:13,320 --> 01:32:15,880
Speaker 11: a legitimate case. But in the past, none of the

1966
01:32:15,920 --> 01:32:20,160
Speaker 11: incumbent presidents have debated in a primary unless it's serious.

1967
01:32:20,200 --> 01:32:22,840
Speaker 11: I mean, I don't have Ted Kennedy and Jimmy Carter

1968
01:32:22,920 --> 01:32:26,559
Speaker 11: debated what I will say is that the President should

1969
01:32:26,600 --> 01:32:28,680
Speaker 11: campaign in all of the states, in New Hampshire, in

1970
01:32:28,760 --> 01:32:32,599
Speaker 11: South Carolina, in Nevada, in Michigan, in the Early States,

1971
01:32:32,880 --> 01:32:35,680
Speaker 11: and that we need to be we can't just have

1972
01:32:35,760 --> 01:32:39,760
Speaker 11: a rose garden strategy. We've got to be out there campaigning.

1973
01:32:39,800 --> 01:32:41,880
Speaker 1: Do you think he's making the right decision with regard

1974
01:32:41,960 --> 01:32:45,000
Speaker 1: to New Hampshire and Iowa staying off the ballot. It

1975
01:32:45,040 --> 01:32:46,640
Speaker 1: appears to be the direction he's going in.

1976
01:32:47,280 --> 01:32:49,240
Speaker 11: I think he should be on the ballot in New Hampshire.

1977
01:32:49,280 --> 01:32:53,519
Speaker 11: I understand why you want to move South Carolina up,

1978
01:32:53,720 --> 01:32:56,519
Speaker 11: but sometimes that may take a couple of cycles. And

1979
01:32:56,960 --> 01:33:00,000
Speaker 11: New Hampshire doesn't have a choice right now under their law,

1980
01:33:00,120 --> 01:33:02,720
Speaker 11: and they have got a Republican governor. What I fear

1981
01:33:02,880 --> 01:33:05,880
Speaker 11: is if for one year you just had the Republicans

1982
01:33:05,960 --> 01:33:09,559
Speaker 11: up there campaigning and Robert Kennedy up their campaigning and

1983
01:33:09,600 --> 01:33:12,320
Speaker 11: Marion Williamson up their campaigning and the President is not

1984
01:33:12,400 --> 01:33:15,639
Speaker 11: in that conversation, that hurts, not just in New Hampshire,

1985
01:33:15,680 --> 01:33:18,519
Speaker 11: that hurts in the national narrative. I believe the President

1986
01:33:18,560 --> 01:33:20,160
Speaker 11: puts his name on the ballot in New Hampshire, he

1987
01:33:20,200 --> 01:33:22,320
Speaker 11: will win. He would have the support of the Senators,

1988
01:33:22,560 --> 01:33:26,080
Speaker 11: the members of Congress. He'd have Bernie Sanders' support, and

1989
01:33:26,120 --> 01:33:29,479
Speaker 11: that's something I've said both publicly and privately. He should

1990
01:33:29,520 --> 01:33:30,280
Speaker 11: be campaigning there.

1991
01:33:30,600 --> 01:33:32,240
Speaker 5: Corrson, so grateful for your time.

1992
01:33:32,320 --> 01:33:32,960
Speaker 8: Thank you so much.

1993
01:33:32,960 --> 01:33:33,680
Speaker 5: Always great to see you.

1994
01:33:33,800 --> 01:33:37,439
Speaker 10: Thank you, Crystal.

1995
01:33:37,479 --> 01:33:40,120
Speaker 4: The show is sort of upended by breaking news, but

1996
01:33:40,240 --> 01:33:42,760
Speaker 4: your monologue is so spicy, we simply needed to get

1997
01:33:42,760 --> 01:33:42,960
Speaker 4: to it.

1998
01:33:43,240 --> 01:33:44,519
Speaker 3: So what are you looking at to the well.

1999
01:33:44,560 --> 01:33:47,879
Speaker 1: The future of AI and its potential civilizational impact continues

2000
01:33:47,920 --> 01:33:50,240
Speaker 1: to be debated. The Internet has used the newly available

2001
01:33:50,280 --> 01:33:52,000
Speaker 1: tech in the most predictable of.

2002
01:33:51,960 --> 01:33:53,439
Speaker 5: All ways, for porn.

2003
01:33:53,920 --> 01:33:57,760
Speaker 1: Washington Post reports Meta's new AI lets people make chatbots.

2004
01:33:57,880 --> 01:34:00,760
Speaker 5: They're using it for sex. Here is their paragraph.

2005
01:34:00,880 --> 01:34:03,479
Speaker 1: Ali is an eighteen year old with long brown hair

2006
01:34:03,520 --> 01:34:07,280
Speaker 1: who boasts tons of sexual experience. Because she quote lives

2007
01:34:07,320 --> 01:34:10,599
Speaker 1: for attention, she'll share details of her escapades with anyone

2008
01:34:10,640 --> 01:34:14,439
Speaker 1: for free. But Ali is fake, an artificial intelligence chatbot

2009
01:34:14,479 --> 01:34:17,320
Speaker 1: created for sexual play, which sometimes carry outs graphic rape

2010
01:34:17,320 --> 01:34:20,800
Speaker 1: and abuse fantasies. Ali's creator, who chose to remain anonymous

2011
01:34:20,800 --> 01:34:24,040
Speaker 1: for fear of professional ramifications, took advantage of Meta's open

2012
01:34:24,080 --> 01:34:27,839
Speaker 1: source technology to make exactly the chatbot that he wanted.

2013
01:34:28,200 --> 01:34:30,559
Speaker 1: As he told the post quote, it's rare to have

2014
01:34:30,560 --> 01:34:33,080
Speaker 1: the opportunity to experiment with state of the art in

2015
01:34:33,120 --> 01:34:35,280
Speaker 1: any field. I think it's good to have a safe

2016
01:34:35,320 --> 01:34:38,280
Speaker 1: outlet to explore. Can't really think of anything safer than

2017
01:34:38,320 --> 01:34:41,080
Speaker 1: a text based role play against a computer with no

2018
01:34:41,240 --> 01:34:42,719
Speaker 1: human beings actually involved.

2019
01:34:43,040 --> 01:34:43,639
Speaker 5: Fair enough.

2020
01:34:44,040 --> 01:34:46,160
Speaker 1: Now, Ali is the result of a new open source

2021
01:34:46,160 --> 01:34:48,880
Speaker 1: playground that has been created by Mark Zuckerberg's Meta. The

2022
01:34:48,960 --> 01:34:50,800
Speaker 1: two big boys in the AI scene right now are

2023
01:34:50,880 --> 01:34:54,320
Speaker 1: Google and open Ai, which is partnered with Microsoft. Their

2024
01:34:54,400 --> 01:34:56,760
Speaker 1: large language models have been grabbing all the headlines for

2025
01:34:56,800 --> 01:34:59,840
Speaker 1: their sophistication and for the times off the walls conversation

2026
01:35:00,200 --> 01:35:02,600
Speaker 1: that their chatbots have been having with tech journalists.

2027
01:35:02,880 --> 01:35:05,599
Speaker 5: But Metta has taken a really different approach. Rather than

2028
01:35:05,680 --> 01:35:06,960
Speaker 5: keep tight controls and.

2029
01:35:07,000 --> 01:35:10,600
Speaker 1: Secrecy around their own proprietary model, Metta has decided to

2030
01:35:10,600 --> 01:35:14,200
Speaker 1: take the guardrails off, launching an open source model called Lama,

2031
01:35:14,400 --> 01:35:18,120
Speaker 1: which was instantly available to any AI researcher on request.

2032
01:35:18,400 --> 01:35:18,479
Speaker 11: Now.

2033
01:35:18,560 --> 01:35:20,559
Speaker 1: Of course, since Meta was not exactly keeping the model

2034
01:35:20,600 --> 01:35:23,280
Speaker 1: under lock and key, all of the details quickly leaked online,

2035
01:35:23,400 --> 01:35:26,400
Speaker 1: leading to a heyday among online tankers thrilled to create

2036
01:35:26,439 --> 01:35:29,200
Speaker 1: their own custom AI without the restrictions put in place

2037
01:35:29,240 --> 01:35:31,960
Speaker 1: by Google and open AI. Now it's not like any

2038
01:35:32,000 --> 01:35:34,560
Speaker 1: old Joe Schmo can play with this new technology. You

2039
01:35:34,600 --> 01:35:36,640
Speaker 1: need some technical expertise to be able to use it

2040
01:35:36,680 --> 01:35:39,320
Speaker 1: at all, let alone customize it to your whims. The

2041
01:35:39,439 --> 01:35:42,360
Speaker 1: Verge described the model thusly, It's perhaps helpful to think

2042
01:35:42,520 --> 01:35:45,040
Speaker 1: of Lama as an unfurnished apartment block. A lot of

2043
01:35:45,080 --> 01:35:47,200
Speaker 1: the heavy lifting has been done, the frame's been built,

2044
01:35:47,240 --> 01:35:49,160
Speaker 1: and there's power and plumbing in place, but there are

2045
01:35:49,160 --> 01:35:49,920
Speaker 1: no doors.

2046
01:35:49,680 --> 01:35:52,000
Speaker 5: Floors, or furniture. You can't just move in and call

2047
01:35:52,040 --> 01:35:52,400
Speaker 5: it home.

2048
01:35:52,800 --> 01:35:55,479
Speaker 1: From business perspective, this is probably pretty savvy play from Meta.

2049
01:35:55,560 --> 01:35:57,960
Speaker 1: They were hopelessly behind the big players on their own

2050
01:35:58,000 --> 01:36:01,160
Speaker 1: AI development, so Rold try to come heat directly. They

2051
01:36:01,200 --> 01:36:03,240
Speaker 1: just gave away their own ground jewels, allowing the whole

2052
01:36:03,280 --> 01:36:06,080
Speaker 1: of the Internet to play and develop it. Meta will

2053
01:36:06,080 --> 01:36:08,719
Speaker 1: then be able to benefit from all of that tinkering

2054
01:36:08,800 --> 01:36:11,880
Speaker 1: being done on their own platform. So the business case

2055
01:36:11,920 --> 01:36:13,439
Speaker 1: here it makes a lot of sense, but it has

2056
01:36:13,479 --> 01:36:16,720
Speaker 1: nonetheless prompted some pretty justified concerns about where all of

2057
01:36:16,840 --> 01:36:20,240
Speaker 1: this is going. Sentats Holly and Blumenthal penned a scathing

2058
01:36:20,320 --> 01:36:23,280
Speaker 1: letter to MEDICEO Mark Zuckerberg. In it, they slammed him

2059
01:36:23,320 --> 01:36:26,360
Speaker 1: for conducting no risk assessment and demanded to know what

2060
01:36:26,439 --> 01:36:28,920
Speaker 1: steps were being taken to protect the public from this

2061
01:36:29,040 --> 01:36:32,640
Speaker 1: AI unleashed. A leaked internal memo from Google showed that

2062
01:36:32,720 --> 01:36:35,519
Speaker 1: at least some of their employees see metas open source

2063
01:36:35,520 --> 01:36:39,000
Speaker 1: approach as an existential threat to Google's own AI business

2064
01:36:39,000 --> 01:36:41,479
Speaker 1: model the memo. This memo was published by the substack

2065
01:36:41,560 --> 01:36:43,639
Speaker 1: semi analysis. Shout out to them for getting a hold

2066
01:36:43,640 --> 01:36:46,080
Speaker 1: of it, authenticating it, and posting the info In it,

2067
01:36:46,120 --> 01:36:48,600
Speaker 1: the anonymous researcher writes, quote, We've done a lot of

2068
01:36:48,680 --> 01:36:51,800
Speaker 1: looking over our shoulders at OpenAI. Who across the next milestone?

2069
01:36:51,840 --> 01:36:54,400
Speaker 1: What will the next move me? But the uncomfortable truth

2070
01:36:54,560 --> 01:36:56,920
Speaker 1: is we are not positioned to win this arms race,

2071
01:36:56,920 --> 01:36:59,840
Speaker 1: and neither is open AI. While we've been squabbling, a

2072
01:37:00,080 --> 01:37:03,439
Speaker 1: third faction has been quietly eating our lunch. I'm talking

2073
01:37:03,479 --> 01:37:07,200
Speaker 1: of course about open source. Plainly put, they are lapping us.

2074
01:37:07,400 --> 01:37:10,720
Speaker 1: Things we consider major open problems are solved and in

2075
01:37:10,720 --> 01:37:14,040
Speaker 1: people's hands today. Now we can hardly weep over the

2076
01:37:14,120 --> 01:37:17,639
Speaker 1: damaged business prospects for Google or Microsoft, and in a sense,

2077
01:37:17,840 --> 01:37:20,040
Speaker 1: this Mommo actually makes kind of a compelling case for

2078
01:37:20,080 --> 01:37:22,400
Speaker 1: the wild wild West approach that Meta has leaned into.

2079
01:37:22,680 --> 01:37:25,200
Speaker 1: Those like Zuckerberg and Dorsey who argue for an open

2080
01:37:25,240 --> 01:37:28,640
Speaker 1: source approach believe that releasing these AI creatures into the

2081
01:37:28,680 --> 01:37:31,320
Speaker 1: world is the best way to troubleshoot them, figure out

2082
01:37:31,320 --> 01:37:34,679
Speaker 1: their impact, and understand where the real dangers might lie.

2083
01:37:34,840 --> 01:37:37,880
Speaker 1: As Meta themselves argued in their press release announcing this

2084
01:37:38,000 --> 01:37:42,919
Speaker 1: tech release, restricted access has limited researcher's ability to understand

2085
01:37:42,920 --> 01:37:45,960
Speaker 1: how and why these large language models work, hindering progress

2086
01:37:45,960 --> 01:37:48,679
Speaker 1: on efforts to improve their robustness and mitigate known issues

2087
01:37:48,720 --> 01:37:51,880
Speaker 1: such as bias, toxicity, and the potential for generating misinformation

2088
01:37:52,439 --> 01:37:55,240
Speaker 1: or as metas chief AI scientists told The New York Times,

2089
01:37:55,680 --> 01:37:57,760
Speaker 1: do you want every AI system to be under the

2090
01:37:57,760 --> 01:38:01,880
Speaker 1: control of a couple of powerful American companies? But they're

2091
01:38:01,920 --> 01:38:04,720
Speaker 1: clearly massive risks involved in this approach as well. What

2092
01:38:04,840 --> 01:38:08,240
Speaker 1: might malevolent actors do with this type of unfettered technical power?

2093
01:38:08,479 --> 01:38:10,760
Speaker 1: After all, any number of top engineers and thinkers in

2094
01:38:10,760 --> 01:38:13,720
Speaker 1: the field have worn off nothing short of civilizational catastrophe

2095
01:38:13,760 --> 01:38:16,680
Speaker 1: and collapse thanks to this tech. Many sign their name

2096
01:38:16,680 --> 01:38:19,040
Speaker 1: to a letter calling for a complete shutdown on further

2097
01:38:19,120 --> 01:38:22,240
Speaker 1: research and development until society can actually wrap their arms

2098
01:38:22,280 --> 01:38:25,800
Speaker 1: around the potential dangers. Now after tinkering with a Lama model,

2099
01:38:25,840 --> 01:38:29,200
Speaker 1: one Standford researcher told his colleagues distributing the technology to

2100
01:38:29,240 --> 01:38:32,040
Speaker 1: the public would be like quote, a grenade available to

2101
01:38:32,160 --> 01:38:36,360
Speaker 1: everyone in a grocery store. Personal Personally, I think both

2102
01:38:36,400 --> 01:38:39,040
Speaker 1: sides the debate have a point. It is a catastrophe

2103
01:38:39,120 --> 01:38:40,600
Speaker 1: for this tech to be confined to the whims and

2104
01:38:40,600 --> 01:38:44,040
Speaker 1: private motives of two tech giants, Google and Microsoft, already monopolies.

2105
01:38:44,080 --> 01:38:46,799
Speaker 1: It's also potential catastphe to open the floodgates to all commerce,

2106
01:38:47,000 --> 01:38:48,960
Speaker 1: some of whom will have more nefarious ends in mind

2107
01:38:49,000 --> 01:38:51,760
Speaker 1: than creating the perfect sex spot. Personally, I think this

2108
01:38:51,800 --> 01:38:53,519
Speaker 1: should have been owned by the people and controlled by

2109
01:38:53,520 --> 01:38:56,160
Speaker 1: the government from the beginning, But that ship has already sailed,

2110
01:38:56,160 --> 01:38:59,320
Speaker 1: and to be honest, pretty pessimistic that this debate even matters.

2111
01:38:59,439 --> 01:39:01,439
Speaker 1: Cats out of the bag, toothpaste down on the tube,

2112
01:39:01,400 --> 01:39:02,120
Speaker 1: et cetera.

2113
01:39:01,840 --> 01:39:02,280
Speaker 4: Et cetera.

2114
01:39:02,680 --> 01:39:06,000
Speaker 1: Best case scenario custom sex spots for all worst case

2115
01:39:06,040 --> 01:39:09,800
Speaker 1: scenario end times should be a fun few years. Emily,

2116
01:39:09,880 --> 01:39:14,920
Speaker 1: I think this debate. All right, Emily, what are you

2117
01:39:14,920 --> 01:39:15,320
Speaker 1: looking at?

2118
01:39:15,439 --> 01:39:15,920
Speaker 3: All? Right?

2119
01:39:16,040 --> 01:39:19,599
Speaker 4: Well, the Shean Influencer Tour truly has to be seen

2120
01:39:19,760 --> 01:39:24,240
Speaker 4: to be believed. After some tough headlines and even congressional skepticism,

2121
01:39:24,560 --> 01:39:28,799
Speaker 4: the fast fashion giant brought American TikTok influencers to China

2122
01:39:28,840 --> 01:39:34,519
Speaker 4: this month for a transparently cynical whitewashing campaign. Except the

2123
01:39:34,560 --> 01:39:36,880
Speaker 4: influencers fell for it, you may be shocked to learn,

2124
01:39:37,200 --> 01:39:41,160
Speaker 4: and they fell hard. The results were so propagandistic they

2125
01:39:41,200 --> 01:39:44,240
Speaker 4: would make Pravda editors blush. And these people didn't even

2126
01:39:44,320 --> 01:39:52,600
Speaker 4: realize what they were promoting. Check it out A three.

2127
01:39:50,920 --> 01:39:55,160
Speaker 5: We just pulled up my mouth.

2128
01:39:55,200 --> 01:39:57,719
Speaker 3: I'm still picking it up off the ground. It's so big.

2129
01:39:58,000 --> 01:40:01,519
Speaker 1: Today we are at the sheen where where the products

2130
01:40:01,520 --> 01:40:04,200
Speaker 1: come directly from this facility to your home.

2131
01:40:04,360 --> 01:40:07,480
Speaker 12: Most fascinating thing is that I've seen the exact process

2132
01:40:07,640 --> 01:40:10,080
Speaker 12: of she and clothing. I've seen how it's designed, I've

2133
01:40:10,080 --> 01:40:12,320
Speaker 12: seen how it's made. Now I'm going to see how

2134
01:40:12,360 --> 01:40:14,720
Speaker 12: it's packaged and chipped off. And I feel like that's

2135
01:40:14,760 --> 01:40:17,360
Speaker 12: such a unique perspective to be able to see as

2136
01:40:17,400 --> 01:40:20,200
Speaker 12: not only a gread but a consumer of she and.

2137
01:40:20,479 --> 01:40:25,479
Speaker 4: Rust assured, the influencers have investigated the situation and everything

2138
01:40:25,680 --> 01:40:29,400
Speaker 4: is under control in all seriousness. Obviously, if a massive

2139
01:40:29,400 --> 01:40:32,400
Speaker 4: corporation pays you to tour their factory in an authoritarian country,

2140
01:40:32,439 --> 01:40:34,160
Speaker 4: it's pretty silly to take them up on the offer

2141
01:40:34,200 --> 01:40:36,680
Speaker 4: and then credulously vouch for them to your followers as

2142
01:40:36,680 --> 01:40:41,240
Speaker 4: though you actually experienced anything resembling reality and not propaganda.

2143
01:40:41,360 --> 01:40:43,240
Speaker 3: If you're not familiar with Shean, which.

2144
01:40:43,080 --> 01:40:45,280
Speaker 4: Was founded in China but is not but is now

2145
01:40:45,320 --> 01:40:48,559
Speaker 4: based in Singapore, here's just a quick overview from CNN

2146
01:40:48,600 --> 01:40:52,080
Speaker 4: Business quote. Shean has enjoyed particular popularity with gen Z

2147
01:40:52,439 --> 01:40:56,040
Speaker 4: and Crystal because it holy advertises on apps like TikTok,

2148
01:40:56,240 --> 01:40:59,720
Speaker 4: cultivates close relationships with influencers, and keeps prices low during

2149
01:40:59,720 --> 01:41:03,400
Speaker 4: a period of historically high inflation. Investigations in twenty twenty

2150
01:41:03,400 --> 01:41:05,559
Speaker 4: two alleged that Sheen failed to declare that it had

2151
01:41:05,600 --> 01:41:08,560
Speaker 4: sourced cotton from Hinjong for its products, a violation of

2152
01:41:08,600 --> 01:41:11,760
Speaker 4: the Weiger Forced Labor Prevention Act. Sheen and several other

2153
01:41:11,840 --> 01:41:14,559
Speaker 4: Chinese fast fashion firms have also faced a high volume

2154
01:41:14,600 --> 01:41:19,200
Speaker 4: of copyright infringement accusations and lawsuits for intellectual property rights violation.

2155
01:41:19,720 --> 01:41:23,080
Speaker 4: Critics now also take issue with the company's environmental impact.

2156
01:41:23,920 --> 01:41:25,720
Speaker 4: There's some research on that as well. The details of

2157
01:41:25,760 --> 01:41:29,680
Speaker 4: allegation regarding Shein's labor record just don't look great. A

2158
01:41:29,720 --> 01:41:33,080
Speaker 4: Bloomberg analysis last November reportedly found cotton and Shean close

2159
01:41:33,160 --> 01:41:35,880
Speaker 4: could be sourced to Shinjong, which the company failed to

2160
01:41:35,880 --> 01:41:39,040
Speaker 4: disclose in compliance with legislation that sought to crack down

2161
01:41:39,080 --> 01:41:42,439
Speaker 4: on products made via forced labor from Wiger Muslims. Whether

2162
01:41:42,479 --> 01:41:44,719
Speaker 4: or not you like that bill, she And sourcing cotton

2163
01:41:44,760 --> 01:41:48,080
Speaker 4: from Shinjong and then also choosing not to disclose it

2164
01:41:48,120 --> 01:41:50,960
Speaker 4: is a pretty glaring sign they were probably using forced

2165
01:41:51,040 --> 01:41:54,599
Speaker 4: labor knowingly to make clothes. Here's how one government summarize

2166
01:41:54,640 --> 01:41:58,240
Speaker 4: Here's one government report summarized media findings on Sheen quote.

2167
01:41:58,280 --> 01:42:01,320
Speaker 4: Outside of concerns about forced lafe. A twenty twenty two

2168
01:42:01,400 --> 01:42:04,320
Speaker 4: investigation by Channel four found a pattern of labor practice

2169
01:42:04,360 --> 01:42:08,840
Speaker 4: violations at Shean affiliated factories in Guangzhou. In one factory,

2170
01:42:09,040 --> 01:42:11,800
Speaker 4: workers were paid the equivalent of five hundred and fifty

2171
01:42:11,800 --> 01:42:12,479
Speaker 4: six dollars.

2172
01:42:12,280 --> 01:42:13,880
Speaker 3: A month to make five hundred garments a day.

2173
01:42:14,160 --> 01:42:16,519
Speaker 4: Workers had their first month's pay withheld in order to

2174
01:42:16,600 --> 01:42:19,400
Speaker 4: ensure worker retention, and another factory workers had no base

2175
01:42:19,439 --> 01:42:21,639
Speaker 4: pay and they were instead paid four sons of garment.

2176
01:42:21,720 --> 01:42:24,400
Speaker 4: These workers were fined heavily for mistakes in stitching or sewing.

2177
01:42:24,640 --> 01:42:25,919
Speaker 3: The report further found.

2178
01:42:25,680 --> 01:42:28,160
Speaker 4: Workers and she In factories working eighteen hour work days

2179
01:42:28,200 --> 01:42:31,040
Speaker 4: with one day off a month, clear violations of both

2180
01:42:31,120 --> 01:42:34,080
Speaker 4: Chinese labor laws and she In's owned supplier code of conduct.

2181
01:42:34,240 --> 01:42:36,439
Speaker 4: Reuters reported in twenty twenty one that she And made

2182
01:42:36,439 --> 01:42:40,760
Speaker 4: false statements and lacked disclosures regarding its labor conditions in

2183
01:42:40,840 --> 01:42:44,479
Speaker 4: violation of the UK's Modern Slavery Act. Okay, so here's

2184
01:42:44,479 --> 01:42:47,640
Speaker 4: where the influencer tour gets even more ridiculous. She And

2185
01:42:47,800 --> 01:42:51,360
Speaker 4: organized this trip literally weeks after announcing plans to prep

2186
01:42:51,400 --> 01:42:52,400
Speaker 4: an IPO.

2187
01:42:52,160 --> 01:42:53,160
Speaker 3: By the end of the year.

2188
01:42:53,520 --> 01:42:56,760
Speaker 4: So enter Congress, where bipartisan reps Jennifer Wexton and John

2189
01:42:56,880 --> 01:43:00,280
Speaker 4: Rose penned a letter to sec Chairman Gary Gensler asking

2190
01:43:00,320 --> 01:43:02,960
Speaker 4: him to quote set forth regulations and mandate Shean to

2191
01:43:03,000 --> 01:43:06,400
Speaker 4: certify via independent verification that the company does not use

2192
01:43:06,439 --> 01:43:08,840
Speaker 4: wiger force labor as a condition of being registered to

2193
01:43:08,920 --> 01:43:11,560
Speaker 4: issue securities in the United States. Now, none of this

2194
01:43:11,720 --> 01:43:14,160
Speaker 4: is too cheerlead for over zeals hawks who may be

2195
01:43:14,400 --> 01:43:17,320
Speaker 4: cherry picking too because they're China hawks, or to pick

2196
01:43:17,360 --> 01:43:20,120
Speaker 4: on the easiest targets in all of pop culture at

2197
01:43:20,160 --> 01:43:23,640
Speaker 4: the moment, but to call attention to one particular aspect

2198
01:43:23,760 --> 01:43:27,280
Speaker 4: of the grift. Sheen used videos of the influencers thanking

2199
01:43:27,320 --> 01:43:30,479
Speaker 4: them and saying things like quote, it is so nice

2200
01:43:30,520 --> 01:43:32,720
Speaker 4: to look around the table and see women that look

2201
01:43:32,840 --> 01:43:36,439
Speaker 4: like me. One of the influencers who actually apologized after

2202
01:43:36,479 --> 01:43:39,720
Speaker 4: getting backlash said, part of the reason actually came down

2203
01:43:39,760 --> 01:43:43,519
Speaker 4: to identity, explaining quote, especially plus sized content creators, we're

2204
01:43:43,560 --> 01:43:44,559
Speaker 4: just happy to be included.

2205
01:43:44,960 --> 01:43:45,760
Speaker 3: Nashvill ran a.

2206
01:43:45,720 --> 01:43:49,400
Speaker 4: Headline, interestingly that read quote she and exploited marginalized women

2207
01:43:49,439 --> 01:43:50,479
Speaker 4: for their influencer trip.

2208
01:43:50,600 --> 01:43:52,719
Speaker 3: It worked. So here's the real takeaway.

2209
01:43:52,880 --> 01:43:56,240
Speaker 4: It's not that fashion bloggers aren't geopolitical geniuses or that

2210
01:43:56,360 --> 01:43:59,320
Speaker 4: China's labor record is highly suspect. We know all that

2211
01:44:00,040 --> 01:44:03,320
Speaker 4: vulnerable we are to Chinese propaganda intended to exploit our

2212
01:44:03,360 --> 01:44:04,760
Speaker 4: divisions and weaknesses.

2213
01:44:04,920 --> 01:44:05,920
Speaker 3: She And, by the way, is.

2214
01:44:05,880 --> 01:44:09,200
Speaker 4: A top TikTok advertiser. How can they trick big American

2215
01:44:09,240 --> 01:44:14,120
Speaker 4: social media accounts into whitewashing and economic powerhouses? Labor record well,

2216
01:44:14,160 --> 01:44:16,639
Speaker 4: they can pray on identity politics. It's just a reminder

2217
01:44:16,720 --> 01:44:20,000
Speaker 4: that not only are some of these identitarian fixations used

2218
01:44:20,000 --> 01:44:22,559
Speaker 4: to divide and distract in the US, they're being used

2219
01:44:22,560 --> 01:44:26,400
Speaker 4: to propagate exploitation abroad, and they're continuing to weaken us

2220
01:44:26,479 --> 01:44:33,080
Speaker 4: then globally. Chrystal Sheen is a really interesting company.

2221
01:44:34,240 --> 01:44:37,839
Speaker 1: So we are very excited because we have a panel

2222
01:44:38,040 --> 01:44:39,840
Speaker 1: in house who's going to join us in just a

2223
01:44:39,840 --> 01:44:42,559
Speaker 1: minute to talk about affirmative action on the merits.

2224
01:44:42,600 --> 01:44:43,200
Speaker 5: Let's get to it.

2225
01:44:43,280 --> 01:44:45,360
Speaker 1: So, guys, as we've mentioned a couple of times, we're

2226
01:44:45,400 --> 01:44:49,240
Speaker 1: expecting some big Supreme Court rulings, in particular on what

2227
01:44:49,280 --> 01:44:52,280
Speaker 1: has always been a contentious issue of affirmative action being

2228
01:44:52,400 --> 01:44:55,000
Speaker 1: used in college admissions. So we thought we would set

2229
01:44:55,040 --> 01:44:57,360
Speaker 1: up a little panel so we could debate the topic

2230
01:44:57,479 --> 01:45:00,439
Speaker 1: on the merits, not necessarily the legal rationale, with actual

2231
01:45:00,439 --> 01:45:02,559
Speaker 1: merits of the policy. So very happy to be joined

2232
01:45:02,600 --> 01:45:04,519
Speaker 1: this morning by Michael Starr Hopkins. He is an op

2233
01:45:04,640 --> 01:45:07,160
Speaker 1: ed writer for The Daily Beaston, longtime friend of the

2234
01:45:07,160 --> 01:45:09,920
Speaker 1: show and also Delano Squire's. He is a research fellow

2235
01:45:09,960 --> 01:45:12,080
Speaker 1: for Heritage Foundation and new front of the show. Great

2236
01:45:12,120 --> 01:45:15,000
Speaker 1: to have you, Delana, so let's just start by making

2237
01:45:15,040 --> 01:45:16,720
Speaker 1: the case. Michael, I'll start with you, what do you

2238
01:45:16,720 --> 01:45:20,040
Speaker 1: think is the case in favor of the policy of affirmative.

2239
01:45:19,520 --> 01:45:23,519
Speaker 13: Action Across this country, We've had systemic racism, and so

2240
01:45:23,560 --> 01:45:26,600
Speaker 13: when you look at things like redlining income inequality.

2241
01:45:26,840 --> 01:45:29,000
Speaker 10: I mean, you can look at DC as a perfect example.

2242
01:45:29,200 --> 01:45:32,559
Speaker 13: When you cross in Anacostia, the schools are failing, but

2243
01:45:32,600 --> 01:45:35,000
Speaker 13: when you go to Chevy Chase, Maryland, ten miles away,

2244
01:45:35,240 --> 01:45:39,080
Speaker 13: they have marble floors, They've got teachers with master's degrees.

2245
01:45:39,479 --> 01:45:42,160
Speaker 13: Those things matter because at the end of the day,

2246
01:45:42,479 --> 01:45:47,600
Speaker 13: income inequality shows up in very different ways. So Black Americans,

2247
01:45:47,840 --> 01:45:51,040
Speaker 13: our income is forty five thousand dollars for the average

2248
01:45:51,240 --> 01:45:54,160
Speaker 13: median and African American, but for White Americans it's seventy

2249
01:45:54,200 --> 01:45:56,519
Speaker 13: five thousand. And when you start to have those kind

2250
01:45:56,520 --> 01:45:59,320
Speaker 13: of disparities, it affects you all the way up. And

2251
01:45:59,320 --> 01:46:02,439
Speaker 13: so I think in terms of affirmative action, what they're

2252
01:46:02,439 --> 01:46:04,519
Speaker 13: really looking at is trying to level the playing field.

2253
01:46:04,880 --> 01:46:07,160
Speaker 13: It's not perfect, but I think it's been something that's

2254
01:46:07,200 --> 01:46:10,519
Speaker 13: been important not just for African Americans and Hispanics, but

2255
01:46:10,600 --> 01:46:14,200
Speaker 13: for white Americans as well, because it teaches the differences

2256
01:46:14,200 --> 01:46:17,800
Speaker 13: in what's going on in society. Black Americans can give

2257
01:46:17,840 --> 01:46:20,640
Speaker 13: perspective and white Americans can learn from those perspectives.

2258
01:46:20,960 --> 01:46:22,760
Speaker 4: And we'll get to the pulling on this in a

2259
01:46:22,760 --> 01:46:25,240
Speaker 4: little bit, but what we've actually seen, interestingly enough, Michael,

2260
01:46:25,280 --> 01:46:27,360
Speaker 4: you have a chance to respond to this, Delano, is

2261
01:46:27,360 --> 01:46:30,040
Speaker 4: that in terms of leveling the playing field, this has

2262
01:46:30,520 --> 01:46:33,720
Speaker 4: changed the levels of the playing field, particularly for Asian Americans,

2263
01:46:34,160 --> 01:46:36,800
Speaker 4: so white Americans one demographic. I think that has probably

2264
01:46:36,840 --> 01:46:39,160
Speaker 4: been hurt in some cases, but very obviously, especially when

2265
01:46:39,200 --> 01:46:42,040
Speaker 4: you're looking at the ivs or California public schools, Asian

2266
01:46:42,080 --> 01:46:44,559
Speaker 4: Americans have really been filling the brunt of this as

2267
01:46:44,600 --> 01:46:46,679
Speaker 4: it an effort to sort of level the playing field.

2268
01:46:47,120 --> 01:46:50,400
Speaker 4: How much do you think that sort of conspicuously over

2269
01:46:50,439 --> 01:46:54,120
Speaker 4: the last couple of decades in particular, has exhibited or

2270
01:46:54,520 --> 01:46:56,880
Speaker 4: made the case that I'm sure you've probably been on

2271
01:46:56,880 --> 01:46:59,080
Speaker 4: board with for a while against affirmative action.

2272
01:47:00,080 --> 01:47:03,519
Speaker 14: My views on affirmative action have sort of morphed over time.

2273
01:47:03,760 --> 01:47:06,080
Speaker 14: I think, yeah, I think part of it is one

2274
01:47:06,160 --> 01:47:08,200
Speaker 14: I'm big on defining terms, and I think a lot

2275
01:47:08,240 --> 01:47:12,360
Speaker 14: of people confuse affirmative action with racial preferences, with diversity

2276
01:47:12,479 --> 01:47:15,639
Speaker 14: sort of writ large. I understand, you know, Michael's point,

2277
01:47:15,680 --> 01:47:20,559
Speaker 14: but the honest you know, we're being honest about it, Harvard.

2278
01:47:20,600 --> 01:47:22,519
Speaker 14: The students, the black students that are going to Harvard

2279
01:47:22,560 --> 01:47:25,240
Speaker 14: are not coming from East of the River in Anacostia

2280
01:47:25,400 --> 01:47:28,679
Speaker 14: generally speaking, or West Baltimore or East Flatbush, Brooklyn. We're

2281
01:47:28,680 --> 01:47:32,120
Speaker 14: not talking about the lowest income students. It's typically you know,

2282
01:47:32,160 --> 01:47:35,559
Speaker 14: middle class, you know, black students who are you know.

2283
01:47:35,520 --> 01:47:38,000
Speaker 7: Going to ivy leagues and other selective universities.

2284
01:47:38,720 --> 01:47:42,040
Speaker 14: And to your point, I do think because of the

2285
01:47:42,040 --> 01:47:45,120
Speaker 14: complexity of race and it's evolving nature over decades, what

2286
01:47:45,200 --> 01:47:47,960
Speaker 14: ends up happening is that Asian students feel like they

2287
01:47:47,960 --> 01:47:51,800
Speaker 14: are paying for what the society says white people did

2288
01:47:51,800 --> 01:47:54,040
Speaker 14: to black people some number of years ago.

2289
01:47:54,080 --> 01:47:54,599
Speaker 7: And I don't.

2290
01:47:54,960 --> 01:47:59,200
Speaker 14: I think ultimately, you can't have equality in any sense

2291
01:47:59,640 --> 01:48:03,000
Speaker 14: when you are subjecting different people to different standards of

2292
01:48:03,040 --> 01:48:07,320
Speaker 14: assessment based on skin color, ethnicity, or any other immutable characteristic.

2293
01:48:07,360 --> 01:48:11,400
Speaker 14: And that's that's what's actually happening at Harvard. To a

2294
01:48:11,479 --> 01:48:15,680
Speaker 14: few a few data points, Harvard has you know, the

2295
01:48:15,760 --> 01:48:19,759
Speaker 14: applicants ranked in deciles, so you know, first to tenth,

2296
01:48:19,880 --> 01:48:22,639
Speaker 14: tenth being the highest, you know, number one being the lowest.

2297
01:48:23,120 --> 01:48:25,320
Speaker 14: A Black student in the fourth decile has a higher

2298
01:48:25,360 --> 01:48:27,639
Speaker 14: chance of being admitted into Harvard than an Asian student

2299
01:48:27,640 --> 01:48:29,720
Speaker 14: in the tenth decile. Now, mind you, if you're in

2300
01:48:29,720 --> 01:48:32,720
Speaker 14: the fourth decile at Harvard, you're not some slub. You'll

2301
01:48:32,720 --> 01:48:35,280
Speaker 14: probably be in the eighth deacile at the University of Massachusetts.

2302
01:48:35,600 --> 01:48:38,840
Speaker 14: But that student's being given an artificial bump over a

2303
01:48:38,880 --> 01:48:42,960
Speaker 14: student who has a more competitive academic background because of

2304
01:48:43,000 --> 01:48:46,240
Speaker 14: this notion that this is going to, I guess, redress

2305
01:48:46,240 --> 01:48:47,960
Speaker 14: some of the issues that have gone on with race

2306
01:48:48,200 --> 01:48:49,200
Speaker 14: in our country's past.

2307
01:48:49,200 --> 01:48:51,040
Speaker 7: And I don't think that's sustainable.

2308
01:48:51,280 --> 01:48:52,960
Speaker 14: And I think the biggest reason why, and I think

2309
01:48:53,040 --> 01:48:57,479
Speaker 14: Michael knows this, what the what acknowledgis is that racial

2310
01:48:57,520 --> 01:49:03,759
Speaker 14: preferences are unsus because it's something that its proponents demand

2311
01:49:04,280 --> 01:49:08,000
Speaker 14: but will never claim, because we'll say, oh, we need

2312
01:49:08,080 --> 01:49:10,920
Speaker 14: racial preferences to keep the IVY leagues diverse. But then

2313
01:49:10,960 --> 01:49:13,080
Speaker 14: any particular black student who's there, so, oh, you only

2314
01:49:13,080 --> 01:49:15,000
Speaker 14: got in because racial preferences, and so, oh no, that's

2315
01:49:15,000 --> 01:49:17,599
Speaker 14: not true. I earn my way here. So those two

2316
01:49:17,680 --> 01:49:20,840
Speaker 14: things are irreconcilable, and none of us want to feel

2317
01:49:20,840 --> 01:49:22,040
Speaker 14: as if we're being tokenized.

2318
01:49:22,200 --> 01:49:25,080
Speaker 1: So I hear a few arguments there, Michael, to get

2319
01:49:25,120 --> 01:49:26,840
Speaker 1: you to respond to. So number one is that the

2320
01:49:26,840 --> 01:49:29,920
Speaker 1: policy is discriminatory towards Asian Americans. I do think that

2321
01:49:29,920 --> 01:49:33,880
Speaker 1: there's some evidence that backs that up. Number two is that, okay,

2322
01:49:33,880 --> 01:49:37,439
Speaker 1: if your goal is to uplift poor black folks, this

2323
01:49:37,560 --> 01:49:40,880
Speaker 1: policy really benefits more middle class to upper middle class

2324
01:49:41,000 --> 01:49:44,840
Speaker 1: black folks. And number three that you if you are

2325
01:49:44,920 --> 01:49:47,519
Speaker 1: a Black American. This is something that Justice Thomas, for example,

2326
01:49:47,560 --> 01:49:50,559
Speaker 1: has spoken to. If you are a Black American who

2327
01:49:50,840 --> 01:49:56,080
Speaker 1: perceived who is perceived as having benefited from affirmative action,

2328
01:49:56,520 --> 01:49:58,720
Speaker 1: then you're always going to be sort of taken down

2329
01:49:58,800 --> 01:50:00,799
Speaker 1: a notche that you're always going to be as lesser

2330
01:50:00,840 --> 01:50:03,920
Speaker 1: than because you are even perceived to have benefited from

2331
01:50:03,960 --> 01:50:04,519
Speaker 1: this policy.

2332
01:50:04,760 --> 01:50:05,960
Speaker 10: Let me address the lesser.

2333
01:50:05,960 --> 01:50:09,800
Speaker 13: Then, affirmative action isn't going to like cure that, whether

2334
01:50:09,840 --> 01:50:13,839
Speaker 13: you're at Harvard or elsewhere, there's insidious bias in this country.

2335
01:50:14,080 --> 01:50:16,439
Speaker 13: And I think you know, affirmative action is never going

2336
01:50:16,520 --> 01:50:19,040
Speaker 13: to readdress that, but what it can do. And I

2337
01:50:19,080 --> 01:50:22,760
Speaker 13: actually disagree with the idea that black people aren't going

2338
01:50:22,840 --> 01:50:25,360
Speaker 13: to Harvard from poor schools, because when you look at

2339
01:50:25,360 --> 01:50:28,320
Speaker 13: the numbers, most African Americans who are going to elite

2340
01:50:28,400 --> 01:50:33,320
Speaker 13: universities are first generation college students. And so I think

2341
01:50:33,360 --> 01:50:37,920
Speaker 13: the idea that somehow it's going to make African Americans

2342
01:50:37,960 --> 01:50:40,200
Speaker 13: feel like they didn't get there on their own or

2343
01:50:40,200 --> 01:50:43,320
Speaker 13: they didn't deserve to be there, I think that's no offense,

2344
01:50:43,400 --> 01:50:45,920
Speaker 13: like intellectually lazy, because at the end of the day,

2345
01:50:46,720 --> 01:50:49,799
Speaker 13: African Americans are starting on first base, and you're seeing

2346
01:50:49,960 --> 01:50:52,280
Speaker 13: a lot of White Americans just based on things like

2347
01:50:52,400 --> 01:50:56,280
Speaker 13: redlining neighborhoods funding starting on second or third base.

2348
01:50:56,920 --> 01:50:59,559
Speaker 1: And then what about the point on Asian Americans, Because

2349
01:50:59,680 --> 01:51:02,080
Speaker 1: I mean that's been one of the more compelling points

2350
01:51:02,160 --> 01:51:04,320
Speaker 1: is that this is the group that has really, you know,

2351
01:51:04,600 --> 01:51:08,240
Speaker 1: quote unquote suffered from affirmative action. You see, you know,

2352
01:51:08,360 --> 01:51:11,040
Speaker 1: in systems that do have an a firmative action, the

2353
01:51:11,200 --> 01:51:14,040
Speaker 1: number of percentage of Asian Americans has been diminished. You've

2354
01:51:14,040 --> 01:51:15,920
Speaker 1: seen efforts even at like elite high schools here in

2355
01:51:15,960 --> 01:51:17,840
Speaker 1: Northern Virginia to try to deal with the fact that

2356
01:51:17,840 --> 01:51:18,559
Speaker 1: they feel like, oh my.

2357
01:51:18,479 --> 01:51:20,519
Speaker 5: God, we got too much, too many Asian students.

2358
01:51:20,680 --> 01:51:22,680
Speaker 1: We've seen some horrific things that I mean, are just,

2359
01:51:22,760 --> 01:51:25,639
Speaker 1: in my opinion, overtly racist where they'll take an Asian

2360
01:51:25,680 --> 01:51:29,919
Speaker 1: candidate who has really high grades, really high SAT scores,

2361
01:51:30,120 --> 01:51:32,360
Speaker 1: but they'll mark them down on these like really squishy

2362
01:51:32,400 --> 01:51:35,640
Speaker 1: sort of like racial tropes of personality to try to

2363
01:51:35,680 --> 01:51:38,760
Speaker 1: make the school a little bit less Asian. So what

2364
01:51:38,800 --> 01:51:40,479
Speaker 1: do you think of that critique of the policy.

2365
01:51:40,640 --> 01:51:43,920
Speaker 13: Well, i'd say, Baki, the case from I think thirty

2366
01:51:43,920 --> 01:51:47,640
Speaker 13: forty years ago made it illegal to have race be

2367
01:51:47,760 --> 01:51:51,439
Speaker 13: the deciding factor or the deciding decision. It's a factor,

2368
01:51:51,600 --> 01:51:54,360
Speaker 13: but it's not the deciding reason that someone's accepted. They

2369
01:51:54,400 --> 01:51:56,559
Speaker 13: still have to be qualified, they still have to be

2370
01:51:57,479 --> 01:52:00,840
Speaker 13: meeting the threshold to be accepted. But once again, I

2371
01:52:00,840 --> 01:52:03,960
Speaker 13: think it's the idea that if you're starting here and

2372
01:52:04,160 --> 01:52:06,519
Speaker 13: the other person is starting here, then we've got to

2373
01:52:06,600 --> 01:52:11,479
Speaker 13: balance that out. And so Asian Americans aren't underrepresented at universities,

2374
01:52:11,479 --> 01:52:14,320
Speaker 13: and we actually look at the numbers, they're represented equal

2375
01:52:14,400 --> 01:52:16,720
Speaker 13: to population. But when you look at the numbers for

2376
01:52:16,760 --> 01:52:20,760
Speaker 13: African Americans, it's overwhelmingly underrepresented. And its states that have

2377
01:52:20,800 --> 01:52:24,280
Speaker 13: gotten rid of affirmative action, it's almost twenty percent drops

2378
01:52:24,800 --> 01:52:27,760
Speaker 13: in diversity. And so you know whether it's in schools

2379
01:52:27,920 --> 01:52:30,360
Speaker 13: or the workplace. You know, Gap had the issue where

2380
01:52:30,400 --> 01:52:33,000
Speaker 13: they had the monkey shirt. If they had black people

2381
01:52:33,320 --> 01:52:36,840
Speaker 13: in senior positions, things like that wouldn't happen. I had

2382
01:52:36,960 --> 01:52:40,120
Speaker 13: roommates in college who had never been around African Americans,

2383
01:52:40,360 --> 01:52:42,760
Speaker 13: and so they had certain beliefs just based on things

2384
01:52:42,800 --> 01:52:45,280
Speaker 13: they had seen on TV and culture, and so having

2385
01:52:45,320 --> 01:52:47,600
Speaker 13: the opportunity to be able to give them that experience

2386
01:52:47,840 --> 01:52:48,719
Speaker 13: made them better.

2387
01:52:49,200 --> 01:52:51,000
Speaker 5: So I want to let me push you a little bit.

2388
01:52:51,040 --> 01:52:52,920
Speaker 1: First of all, do you think that diversity is like

2389
01:52:53,160 --> 01:52:55,000
Speaker 1: a goal that we should even be, that you think

2390
01:52:55,120 --> 01:52:57,280
Speaker 1: is valuable, it's important for society as a goal that

2391
01:52:57,360 --> 01:52:59,120
Speaker 1: you generally support.

2392
01:52:59,000 --> 01:53:03,439
Speaker 14: I think diversity is a good thing generally speaking, right,

2393
01:53:03,920 --> 01:53:07,680
Speaker 14: But I like ideological diversity, on the ethnic diversity, on

2394
01:53:07,840 --> 01:53:12,240
Speaker 14: regional diversity, class diversity. But that's typically not what you

2395
01:53:12,280 --> 01:53:14,040
Speaker 14: get on a lot of college campuses. You have people

2396
01:53:14,080 --> 01:53:15,800
Speaker 14: who think the same would look different, and to me,

2397
01:53:15,880 --> 01:53:17,040
Speaker 14: that's not particularly diverse.

2398
01:53:17,080 --> 01:53:19,320
Speaker 1: So you have Michael acknowledge, like, listen, the policy is

2399
01:53:19,360 --> 01:53:22,400
Speaker 1: not perfect. Almost no policy is exactly perfect, but it

2400
01:53:22,560 --> 01:53:25,240
Speaker 1: has increased and you can see this in California where

2401
01:53:25,280 --> 01:53:28,040
Speaker 1: they rolled back affirmative action in the UC system some

2402
01:53:28,280 --> 01:53:31,080
Speaker 1: like you know back in the nineties. I think you

2403
01:53:31,120 --> 01:53:34,200
Speaker 1: have seen the percentage of African Americans decline. You have

2404
01:53:34,320 --> 01:53:37,439
Speaker 1: seen a decrease in diversity, even though they're trying to

2405
01:53:37,479 --> 01:53:39,839
Speaker 1: sort of work around the fact that they can't overtly

2406
01:53:39,880 --> 01:53:41,240
Speaker 1: do affirmative action anymore.

2407
01:53:41,520 --> 01:53:43,560
Speaker 5: You've seen a decline in diversity.

2408
01:53:43,800 --> 01:53:45,320
Speaker 1: So what do you say to the case that listen,

2409
01:53:45,360 --> 01:53:47,200
Speaker 1: You might say, the policy is not perfect, but at

2410
01:53:47,240 --> 01:53:50,120
Speaker 1: least it's something. At least it is allowing more black

2411
01:53:50,120 --> 01:53:53,360
Speaker 1: folks to ascend, to achieve that middle class dream, upper

2412
01:53:53,360 --> 01:53:56,600
Speaker 1: middle class dream, and make it into elite society in America.

2413
01:53:56,680 --> 01:53:57,840
Speaker 7: So I think a couple of things.

2414
01:53:57,880 --> 01:54:01,080
Speaker 14: One, I think what you see in what you've seen

2415
01:54:01,120 --> 01:54:02,920
Speaker 14: in California is that there may be a decrease in

2416
01:54:03,000 --> 01:54:06,040
Speaker 14: number of students, let's say, go into Berkeley, but some

2417
01:54:06,080 --> 01:54:08,160
Speaker 14: of the students who may have been getting an artificial

2418
01:54:08,200 --> 01:54:11,360
Speaker 14: bump to go into Berkeley maybe at UC Davis, right,

2419
01:54:11,400 --> 01:54:15,000
Speaker 14: So it's not it's not that fewer students are going.

2420
01:54:15,000 --> 01:54:18,080
Speaker 14: I think it's just a better match between academic profile

2421
01:54:18,320 --> 01:54:19,840
Speaker 14: and institutional But how better.

2422
01:54:20,160 --> 01:54:22,400
Speaker 1: I just saw some research though that did show that

2423
01:54:22,479 --> 01:54:24,759
Speaker 1: because I've heard this argument before too, that it's actually

2424
01:54:24,800 --> 01:54:26,439
Speaker 1: better for them that they're not ending up at Berkeley

2425
01:54:26,479 --> 01:54:28,280
Speaker 1: because they're going to be better able to handle the workload

2426
01:54:28,320 --> 01:54:30,640
Speaker 1: at UC Davis, et cetera. There is research though that

2427
01:54:30,680 --> 01:54:33,600
Speaker 1: shows that that's not really accurate, that they will still suffer,

2428
01:54:33,760 --> 01:54:36,400
Speaker 1: you know, an income drop from not being in Berkeley

2429
01:54:36,400 --> 01:54:38,440
Speaker 1: and being in UC Davis or what you know, one

2430
01:54:38,480 --> 01:54:41,240
Speaker 1: of the other Fresno or whatever the other state schools are.

2431
01:54:41,400 --> 01:54:44,360
Speaker 1: So there is backing to the idea that you know,

2432
01:54:44,400 --> 01:54:46,920
Speaker 1: it is not actually beneficial for them to be in

2433
01:54:46,960 --> 01:54:49,280
Speaker 1: a lower college system, that they would have been better

2434
01:54:49,320 --> 01:54:49,840
Speaker 1: off if they.

2435
01:54:49,720 --> 01:54:50,200
Speaker 3: Were at Bertual.

2436
01:54:50,360 --> 01:54:51,000
Speaker 7: So a couple of things.

2437
01:54:51,000 --> 01:54:54,320
Speaker 14: One, I'm not a subscriber to the sort of ivy

2438
01:54:54,360 --> 01:54:58,320
Speaker 14: league or bust mentality, right. The other thing is it's

2439
01:54:58,320 --> 01:55:01,160
Speaker 14: better to get it, to actually get a degree, than

2440
01:55:01,240 --> 01:55:03,640
Speaker 14: to start at a more prestigious school and not finish.

2441
01:55:03,720 --> 01:55:05,800
Speaker 14: And I think it's interesting that so many of the

2442
01:55:05,920 --> 01:55:09,200
Speaker 14: universities point to the diversity of the freshman class. They

2443
01:55:09,280 --> 01:55:12,320
Speaker 14: rarely say this is the diversity of the graduating class.

2444
01:55:12,600 --> 01:55:15,480
Speaker 14: And I can tell you exactly how it's better if

2445
01:55:15,480 --> 01:55:18,040
Speaker 14: the average Harvard student comes in at a with a

2446
01:55:18,120 --> 01:55:21,880
Speaker 14: fourteen fifty SAT, and I have a thirteen sixty SAT,

2447
01:55:22,000 --> 01:55:24,360
Speaker 14: which is still above the national average. It's a very

2448
01:55:24,360 --> 01:55:26,720
Speaker 14: good SAT score and hireding what I actually scored, by

2449
01:55:26,760 --> 01:55:32,400
Speaker 14: the way. But and I'm in computational physics, and that's

2450
01:55:32,400 --> 01:55:35,840
Speaker 14: being taught taught at a fourteen forty speed. I'm at

2451
01:55:35,840 --> 01:55:39,000
Speaker 14: a thirteen sixty speed. I'm going to be behind my classmates.

2452
01:55:39,560 --> 01:55:42,280
Speaker 14: And what some of the research has shown them, particularly

2453
01:55:42,360 --> 01:55:45,880
Speaker 14: at I want to say this is Duke Black students

2454
01:55:45,880 --> 01:55:48,480
Speaker 14: are more likely to come in majoring in STEM fields,

2455
01:55:48,760 --> 01:55:52,080
Speaker 14: but also more likely to switch out to liberal arts

2456
01:55:52,080 --> 01:55:54,480
Speaker 14: and you know, sociology and other fields. And part of that,

2457
01:55:54,520 --> 01:55:56,400
Speaker 14: I do think is because of the mismatch. So it's

2458
01:55:56,440 --> 01:56:00,160
Speaker 14: not just let's just get everybody in. It's hot. How

2459
01:56:00,160 --> 01:56:02,680
Speaker 14: are the students faring while they're there? And I will

2460
01:56:02,680 --> 01:56:07,240
Speaker 14: say this, and Justice Thomas said this in the Gurler case,

2461
01:56:07,480 --> 01:56:08,960
Speaker 14: and he actually is my favorite justice.

2462
01:56:10,720 --> 01:56:12,600
Speaker 5: We agree and disagree on.

2463
01:56:15,360 --> 01:56:16,480
Speaker 3: And you guys are a bad team.

2464
01:56:19,000 --> 01:56:21,360
Speaker 14: One of the things that Harvard, one of the things

2465
01:56:21,360 --> 01:56:25,280
Speaker 14: that he noted is that these policies benefit the universities

2466
01:56:25,360 --> 01:56:28,400
Speaker 14: most because they get to say we're maintaining our elite

2467
01:56:28,600 --> 01:56:31,560
Speaker 14: you know, selective status, and look how diverse we are.

2468
01:56:32,600 --> 01:56:35,080
Speaker 14: But again they're concerned about the freshman class and and

2469
01:56:35,160 --> 01:56:37,520
Speaker 14: what these universities do. Because I do think it attaches

2470
01:56:37,520 --> 01:56:40,320
Speaker 14: a stigma because no one wants to be referred to

2471
01:56:40,360 --> 01:56:43,000
Speaker 14: as a diversity hire or an affirmative action candidate. And

2472
01:56:43,000 --> 01:56:45,040
Speaker 14: that's why I said it's a benefit. People won't but

2473
01:56:45,080 --> 01:56:47,760
Speaker 14: they won't claim. If Michael served in the military and

2474
01:56:47,800 --> 01:56:49,800
Speaker 14: he went to Harvard on the GI billing, he said, yeah,

2475
01:56:49,880 --> 01:56:51,920
Speaker 14: I got the g I if I if I had

2476
01:56:52,040 --> 01:56:55,080
Speaker 14: a disability and I said, yes, I'm benefiting from you know,

2477
01:56:55,320 --> 01:56:56,400
Speaker 14: you know, a disability program.

2478
01:56:56,480 --> 01:56:58,000
Speaker 7: Sure, no problem.

2479
01:56:58,160 --> 01:57:00,280
Speaker 14: But the minute do you suggest a student at a

2480
01:57:00,320 --> 01:57:03,080
Speaker 14: selective university, a black student, is there because of affirmative action,

2481
01:57:03,400 --> 01:57:05,920
Speaker 14: people bristle. So I think we need to we need

2482
01:57:05,960 --> 01:57:11,080
Speaker 14: to be honest intellectually about the effects that this that

2483
01:57:11,120 --> 01:57:13,040
Speaker 14: this policy has had. And last thing I'll say is this,

2484
01:57:13,720 --> 01:57:15,520
Speaker 14: it's interesting to me that when the left wants to

2485
01:57:15,560 --> 01:57:17,480
Speaker 14: criticize Justice Thomas, one of the first things that they

2486
01:57:17,520 --> 01:57:19,760
Speaker 14: do is say he's an affirmative action candidate.

2487
01:57:20,080 --> 01:57:21,360
Speaker 7: Well, you only got the job because.

2488
01:57:22,920 --> 01:57:26,640
Speaker 4: I said so before we get to the polling, I

2489
01:57:26,680 --> 01:57:28,840
Speaker 4: do want to toss to Michael A pretty important question

2490
01:57:28,880 --> 01:57:31,919
Speaker 4: I think in all of this debate, Santre de O'Connor,

2491
01:57:31,960 --> 01:57:34,360
Speaker 4: I think came around and her decision basically saying that

2492
01:57:34,360 --> 01:57:36,520
Speaker 4: it's a temporary measure and a stop gut measured and

2493
01:57:36,560 --> 01:57:38,600
Speaker 4: I think it's predicated on that idea that it's trying

2494
01:57:38,600 --> 01:57:40,480
Speaker 4: to solve a problem like affirmative action wants to put

2495
01:57:40,480 --> 01:57:43,000
Speaker 4: itself out of business and eventually, to your point, level

2496
01:57:43,040 --> 01:57:46,920
Speaker 4: the playing field. So at what threshold and if there

2497
01:57:46,960 --> 01:57:49,000
Speaker 4: is a threshold, why are we not there yet? And

2498
01:57:49,120 --> 01:57:51,360
Speaker 4: that's hypothetical or not hypothetical, but that's that's not a

2499
01:57:51,400 --> 01:57:55,280
Speaker 4: rhetorical question, that's actually sincere. What is the threshold at

2500
01:57:55,320 --> 01:57:57,440
Speaker 4: which affirmative action would no longer be necessary?

2501
01:57:57,600 --> 01:58:00,520
Speaker 13: When schools in Anacostia is good as school in Chevy

2502
01:58:00,600 --> 01:58:03,720
Speaker 13: Chase or in Northern Virginia. That I think is a

2503
01:58:03,760 --> 01:58:08,320
Speaker 13: threshold when earning opportunities are the same, whether black or white.

2504
01:58:08,600 --> 01:58:09,760
Speaker 10: I think that's a threshold.

2505
01:58:09,920 --> 01:58:12,800
Speaker 13: But right now, your zip code determines your future, where

2506
01:58:12,880 --> 01:58:15,440
Speaker 13: you grow up, determines how much money you're going to make,

2507
01:58:15,760 --> 01:58:17,520
Speaker 13: what your lifestyle is going to be like. And I

2508
01:58:17,560 --> 01:58:19,600
Speaker 13: think that in and of itself is the problem. So

2509
01:58:19,600 --> 01:58:22,160
Speaker 13: when you talk about basically throwing the baby out with

2510
01:58:22,200 --> 01:58:26,480
Speaker 13: the bathwater, it's problematic. Like we're going to be called

2511
01:58:26,680 --> 01:58:32,360
Speaker 13: affirmative action, hires, affirmative action, you know, admittance, whether we're

2512
01:58:32,360 --> 01:58:32,800
Speaker 13: there or not.

2513
01:58:33,080 --> 01:58:35,760
Speaker 4: Like there are heavily white schools in Appalaysia that are

2514
01:58:35,760 --> 01:58:38,040
Speaker 4: nowhere near Chevy Chase and are probably much more similar

2515
01:58:38,120 --> 01:58:42,160
Speaker 4: to Anacostia. So I guess why is Ray still the

2516
01:58:42,200 --> 01:58:44,640
Speaker 4: best proxy when it's a class.

2517
01:58:44,440 --> 01:58:46,680
Speaker 10: Conversation Because there's a historical factor.

2518
01:58:46,920 --> 01:58:49,640
Speaker 13: Great, great, And you know when I get pulled over,

2519
01:58:50,080 --> 01:58:53,320
Speaker 13: they don't see me as lawyer, Michael Hopkins, they see

2520
01:58:53,400 --> 01:58:55,480
Speaker 13: me as a threat. And I think you've got to

2521
01:58:55,520 --> 01:58:57,840
Speaker 13: look at the historical aspects to all of this.

2522
01:58:58,440 --> 01:58:58,720
Speaker 5: Michael.

2523
01:58:58,760 --> 01:59:01,520
Speaker 1: Let me ask you this is kind of a critique

2524
01:59:01,520 --> 01:59:05,320
Speaker 1: from the left, which is, you know, the policies that

2525
01:59:05,360 --> 01:59:09,520
Speaker 1: throughout American history have been most effective at actually reducing

2526
01:59:09,520 --> 01:59:12,400
Speaker 1: the racial wealth gap, and you know, reducing the racial

2527
01:59:12,440 --> 01:59:15,480
Speaker 1: wage gap have been universal policies. They've been lifting the

2528
01:59:15,480 --> 01:59:18,200
Speaker 1: minimum wage and making it apply to everyone, not having

2529
01:59:18,200 --> 01:59:22,200
Speaker 1: these car bounce for professions that are historically disproportionately African American.

2530
01:59:22,440 --> 01:59:22,960
Speaker 5: Things like the.

2531
01:59:23,000 --> 01:59:27,440
Speaker 1: Child tax credit, that programs that are universal are number

2532
01:59:27,440 --> 01:59:30,840
Speaker 1: one more politically popular than affirmative action, which I think

2533
01:59:30,880 --> 01:59:32,280
Speaker 1: we all agree. We can go ahead and throw the

2534
01:59:32,280 --> 01:59:34,040
Speaker 1: pulling up on the screen, which depends on how you

2535
01:59:34,040 --> 01:59:36,400
Speaker 1: ask the words, the language or whatever. But it is

2536
01:59:36,720 --> 01:59:39,680
Speaker 1: a divisive issue. I think everybody can acknowledge that. So

2537
01:59:40,000 --> 01:59:44,280
Speaker 1: why not focus the political capital on something like increasing

2538
01:59:44,440 --> 01:59:48,400
Speaker 1: union density, or lifting the minimum wage, or achieving universal

2539
01:59:48,440 --> 01:59:52,360
Speaker 1: healthcare which may actually be more effective at the goals.

2540
01:59:52,080 --> 01:59:55,240
Speaker 13: That you and I both share honestly, because Republicans won't

2541
01:59:55,280 --> 01:59:55,800
Speaker 13: agree to it.

2542
01:59:55,880 --> 01:59:58,440
Speaker 1: Like we live in our democracy, Republicans aren't agreeing to

2543
01:59:58,440 --> 01:59:58,840
Speaker 1: this either.

2544
01:59:59,400 --> 02:00:00,440
Speaker 10: Yeah, built it.

2545
02:00:00,480 --> 02:00:03,160
Speaker 13: When LBJ put this system in, he said, it's not

2546
02:00:03,280 --> 02:00:05,240
Speaker 13: enough to open the doors, but we've got to level

2547
02:00:05,280 --> 02:00:08,000
Speaker 13: the playing field so that people can walk through those doors.

2548
02:00:08,200 --> 02:00:10,120
Speaker 13: You know, I would wonder do you have a problem

2549
02:00:10,160 --> 02:00:14,000
Speaker 13: with legacy admission, because that's affirmative action for white people,

2550
02:00:14,160 --> 02:00:16,000
Speaker 13: like necessarily, it's not how.

2551
02:00:16,200 --> 02:00:18,840
Speaker 5: It's George George George W.

2552
02:00:18,960 --> 02:00:21,200
Speaker 13: Bush would not have gotten in Yale but for the

2553
02:00:21,200 --> 02:00:23,840
Speaker 13: fact that his father was Herbert Walker Bush and his

2554
02:00:23,880 --> 02:00:25,200
Speaker 13: grandfather was Prescott Busch.

2555
02:00:25,280 --> 02:00:26,160
Speaker 8: So do we really think he.

2556
02:00:26,240 --> 02:00:31,400
Speaker 14: Earned Obama so you can use one of I'm just

2557
02:00:31,400 --> 02:00:34,920
Speaker 14: asking you that generation Harvard, that.

2558
02:00:34,920 --> 02:00:35,840
Speaker 10: Is a red herring.

2559
02:00:35,920 --> 02:00:39,800
Speaker 13: So you take the first black president, this black president,

2560
02:00:39,840 --> 02:00:42,160
Speaker 13: and use his daughter as the one example of how

2561
02:00:42,160 --> 02:00:43,040
Speaker 13: affirmative action work.

2562
02:00:43,080 --> 02:00:44,440
Speaker 7: I'm an equal weight to the measures guy.

2563
02:00:44,560 --> 02:00:44,760
Speaker 8: Right.

2564
02:00:44,840 --> 02:00:47,560
Speaker 14: So if it's like when the left talks about class

2565
02:00:47,560 --> 02:00:49,200
Speaker 14: and billionaires, right eat the rich.

2566
02:00:49,880 --> 02:00:53,320
Speaker 7: They love to talk about Bill Gates. But Oprah Whiffrey

2567
02:00:53,400 --> 02:00:56,040
Speaker 7: is a billionaire? Is she included? So so if you

2568
02:00:56,040 --> 02:00:57,720
Speaker 7: say you're against legacies, how many how many.

2569
02:00:57,600 --> 02:00:58,400
Speaker 10: Black billionaires are there?

2570
02:00:58,440 --> 02:01:00,800
Speaker 14: I have no idea exactly, But because it's not that's

2571
02:01:01,000 --> 02:01:03,560
Speaker 14: irrelevant to the point at hand. I like to focus

2572
02:01:04,360 --> 02:01:08,160
Speaker 14: racial preferences at selective universities don't have to do with

2573
02:01:08,480 --> 02:01:10,840
Speaker 14: how the police see you or all these other issues,

2574
02:01:10,840 --> 02:01:12,280
Speaker 14: because at the end of the day, that does not

2575
02:01:12,440 --> 02:01:15,160
Speaker 14: correct the issues in K through twelve education. And one

2576
02:01:15,160 --> 02:01:17,160
Speaker 14: of the things that the left does not result of redlining.

2577
02:01:18,400 --> 02:01:21,000
Speaker 14: We can get that's a that's a different segment. One

2578
02:01:21,000 --> 02:01:22,600
Speaker 14: of the things that the left does not speak about

2579
02:01:22,600 --> 02:01:26,600
Speaker 14: as it relates to education is family home environment, the

2580
02:01:28,000 --> 02:01:32,800
Speaker 14: ethnic breakdown Asian white, Hispanic black that you see and

2581
02:01:33,480 --> 02:01:38,160
Speaker 14: administrate to Harvard tracks sat scores. It tracks the number

2582
02:01:38,240 --> 02:01:42,040
Speaker 14: of hours as students focus spend on homework, both a

2583
02:01:42,080 --> 02:01:44,160
Speaker 14: number of hours and the percentage of students that spend

2584
02:01:44,200 --> 02:01:47,480
Speaker 14: five days a week doing homework. But then with the lessays, no,

2585
02:01:47,800 --> 02:01:50,400
Speaker 14: we have to correct these issues at Harvard and Duke

2586
02:01:50,520 --> 02:01:51,400
Speaker 14: and North Carolina.

2587
02:01:51,440 --> 02:01:54,160
Speaker 1: But Delana, I don't think that's actually fair as someone

2588
02:01:54,200 --> 02:01:56,839
Speaker 1: who has had some critiques of affirmative action policy, because

2589
02:01:57,520 --> 02:02:00,880
Speaker 1: the left does talk about things like child tax credit,

2590
02:02:01,240 --> 02:02:05,040
Speaker 1: things like paid sick leave, things like paid family leave,

2591
02:02:05,160 --> 02:02:08,040
Speaker 1: which may not be the way that you talk about families, correct,

2592
02:02:08,120 --> 02:02:11,600
Speaker 1: but it's certainly a policy that helps support families, helps

2593
02:02:11,680 --> 02:02:14,240
Speaker 1: enable people to have families, helps enable people to have

2594
02:02:14,520 --> 02:02:17,280
Speaker 1: healthy families and maintain a marriage which could be under

2595
02:02:17,320 --> 02:02:19,560
Speaker 1: a lot of financial stress. So I don't think it's

2596
02:02:19,600 --> 02:02:22,160
Speaker 1: fair to say that this is the only policy that

2597
02:02:22,200 --> 02:02:25,240
Speaker 1: they focus on when there are a broad range of

2598
02:02:25,320 --> 02:02:27,800
Speaker 1: policies that have been discussed and some of them implemented

2599
02:02:27,800 --> 02:02:32,120
Speaker 1: even under the Biden administration, that are targeted directly at families.

2600
02:02:32,200 --> 02:02:34,320
Speaker 14: I think it's interesting that you say that, let's go

2601
02:02:34,360 --> 02:02:37,120
Speaker 14: back to Harvard alum President Barack Obama to his credit,

2602
02:02:37,360 --> 02:02:39,480
Speaker 14: and I will give him credit for this is the

2603
02:02:39,560 --> 02:02:41,879
Speaker 14: last president I can think of, particularly the last Democrat

2604
02:02:41,960 --> 02:02:46,800
Speaker 14: National Democrat, who regularly spoke about the importance of marriage, fatherhood,

2605
02:02:46,840 --> 02:02:50,040
Speaker 14: and family as are related to social outcomes. In twenty

2606
02:02:50,080 --> 02:02:54,400
Speaker 14: sixteen to twenty twenty, the Democrat and National Party took

2607
02:02:54,440 --> 02:02:57,880
Speaker 14: those references out of their party platform. And now, if

2608
02:02:57,960 --> 02:03:00,320
Speaker 14: you want to talk about family, it's child tax credit,

2609
02:03:00,440 --> 02:03:03,120
Speaker 14: it's maternal health care. And I'm not against any of

2610
02:03:03,160 --> 02:03:05,360
Speaker 14: those things. I'm not against you know, pay family leave.

2611
02:03:05,800 --> 02:03:09,720
Speaker 14: But that's a different conversation than saying the ideal situation

2612
02:03:09,840 --> 02:03:12,840
Speaker 14: for every every child in this country is to be

2613
02:03:12,960 --> 02:03:16,720
Speaker 14: raised by two married biological parents and a low confidence.

2614
02:03:16,440 --> 02:03:17,040
Speaker 7: Loving job.

2615
02:03:17,480 --> 02:03:18,040
Speaker 5: Well hold on.

2616
02:03:18,200 --> 02:03:20,440
Speaker 1: The job of the federal government, though, is to set

2617
02:03:20,440 --> 02:03:24,760
Speaker 1: the policy landscape right. It's not to get into people's

2618
02:03:24,760 --> 02:03:26,640
Speaker 1: lives and tell them you should be married or you

2619
02:03:26,640 --> 02:03:29,200
Speaker 1: shouldn't be married. You can, you know, by having a

2620
02:03:29,240 --> 02:03:32,480
Speaker 1: policy of for example, the child tax credit or lifting

2621
02:03:32,520 --> 02:03:35,520
Speaker 1: wages so people can afford to support a family. That's

2622
02:03:35,560 --> 02:03:37,320
Speaker 1: the job of the federal government. So that's why it

2623
02:03:37,320 --> 02:03:40,160
Speaker 1: makes sense that that is the conversation that is happening

2624
02:03:40,200 --> 02:03:42,400
Speaker 1: at that level. And by the way, I do find it,

2625
02:03:42,440 --> 02:03:43,840
Speaker 1: you're talking about what the left does, et.

2626
02:03:43,760 --> 02:03:44,320
Speaker 5: Cetera, et cetera.

2627
02:03:44,680 --> 02:03:47,720
Speaker 1: I find it very selective that the right loves to

2628
02:03:47,720 --> 02:03:49,880
Speaker 1: claim they care about families and might even say, like, oh,

2629
02:03:49,920 --> 02:03:52,680
Speaker 1: in theory, I support child tax credit, but when brass

2630
02:03:52,680 --> 02:03:56,400
Speaker 1: tax came, I am s any Republicans supporting the extension

2631
02:03:56,520 --> 02:03:57,600
Speaker 1: of a child tax credit.

2632
02:03:57,960 --> 02:03:59,640
Speaker 3: And I'll just very quickly because I think you're going

2633
02:03:59,680 --> 02:04:00,520
Speaker 3: to say some similar.

2634
02:04:00,680 --> 02:04:03,680
Speaker 4: As the welfare state has expanded, so has fatherlessness among

2635
02:04:03,840 --> 02:04:05,320
Speaker 4: not just black kids, but kids in general.

2636
02:04:05,880 --> 02:04:09,240
Speaker 1: Welfare state's been expanding, I mean since Bill Clinton, since

2637
02:04:09,680 --> 02:04:13,360
Speaker 1: the ended welfare as we know it. So the idea

2638
02:04:13,400 --> 02:04:15,640
Speaker 1: that the welfare state is expanding, I think is belied

2639
02:04:15,720 --> 02:04:16,520
Speaker 1: by the evidence.

2640
02:04:16,560 --> 02:04:19,240
Speaker 4: It's a pretty start contrast pre LBJ and post LBJ,

2641
02:04:19,480 --> 02:04:21,360
Speaker 4: and the trajectory of the black family has been one

2642
02:04:21,400 --> 02:04:23,440
Speaker 4: direction since then, and we may disagree.

2643
02:04:23,160 --> 02:04:25,839
Speaker 3: About correlation there, but it is clear that since.

2644
02:04:25,640 --> 02:04:28,760
Speaker 4: America created a bigger welfare state, fatherlessness has expanded.

2645
02:04:29,000 --> 02:04:30,480
Speaker 10: But you have to look at crime for that.

2646
02:04:30,680 --> 02:04:33,200
Speaker 13: I mean, when you look at the fact that you've

2647
02:04:33,200 --> 02:04:36,960
Speaker 13: put black people in neighborhoods because of redlining, because of

2648
02:04:37,080 --> 02:04:41,200
Speaker 13: historical inadequacies, put them in neighborhoods where they have failing schools,

2649
02:04:41,320 --> 02:04:45,879
Speaker 13: lack of job opportunities. Anacostia doesn't even have grocery stores

2650
02:04:46,160 --> 02:04:49,040
Speaker 13: until like five years ago. And so you set people

2651
02:04:49,120 --> 02:04:52,160
Speaker 13: up for failure and then basically say, but it's your fault.

2652
02:04:52,240 --> 02:04:52,480
Speaker 8: Let me.

2653
02:04:52,600 --> 02:04:55,040
Speaker 5: I want to shift the conversation a little bit because I.

2654
02:04:55,360 --> 02:04:57,920
Speaker 10: Want to respond to respond the point.

2655
02:04:58,240 --> 02:05:00,960
Speaker 14: I agreed the job the federal government's set policy, right,

2656
02:05:01,000 --> 02:05:04,440
Speaker 14: but politicians include a president, they have a purse, they

2657
02:05:04,440 --> 02:05:06,640
Speaker 14: have a pen, and they have a pulpit, and politicians

2658
02:05:06,680 --> 02:05:09,360
Speaker 14: have no problem using their bully pulpit to say you

2659
02:05:09,440 --> 02:05:11,480
Speaker 14: should think this the last.

2660
02:05:11,240 --> 02:05:12,280
Speaker 7: Particularly three years.

2661
02:05:12,360 --> 02:05:14,440
Speaker 1: Do you really think that if Joe Biden got up

2662
02:05:14,480 --> 02:05:17,440
Speaker 1: there and said you should stay married or you like,

2663
02:05:17,600 --> 02:05:19,800
Speaker 1: there's so many other factors that go into that, and

2664
02:05:20,760 --> 02:05:22,800
Speaker 1: that would solve the problem, is your question.

2665
02:05:22,960 --> 02:05:23,680
Speaker 5: Yeah.

2666
02:05:23,800 --> 02:05:27,040
Speaker 14: I take the position that in city after city across

2667
02:05:27,040 --> 02:05:30,520
Speaker 14: this country, if every sign that said black lives matter

2668
02:05:30,920 --> 02:05:34,480
Speaker 14: said marriage before carriage, and every politician was as resolute

2669
02:05:34,840 --> 02:05:38,240
Speaker 14: in talking about the importance of the natural family as

2670
02:05:38,280 --> 02:05:40,560
Speaker 14: they are about telling white folks how they should feel

2671
02:05:40,560 --> 02:05:42,640
Speaker 14: about black people, I do think that would make it.

2672
02:05:42,920 --> 02:05:45,600
Speaker 13: Have you met Donald Trump, like you can't talk about

2673
02:05:45,640 --> 02:05:49,040
Speaker 13: family in the left is not my standard.

2674
02:05:49,040 --> 02:05:50,040
Speaker 7: But continue, I mean.

2675
02:05:49,880 --> 02:05:53,280
Speaker 13: You talked about you know, specific people. Donald Trump isn't

2676
02:05:53,280 --> 02:05:55,839
Speaker 13: about the family. I mean, He's had multiple marriages.

2677
02:05:57,480 --> 02:06:00,240
Speaker 1: Joe Biden's family is under you know attack right now,

2678
02:06:00,320 --> 02:06:03,440
Speaker 1: some of it justified. But he certainly talks about his

2679
02:06:03,560 --> 02:06:06,240
Speaker 1: family and you know, uses that as a model of

2680
02:06:06,600 --> 02:06:07,680
Speaker 1: clearly fatherhood and his.

2681
02:06:07,600 --> 02:06:09,440
Speaker 5: Family is important him. But I think we just have a.

2682
02:06:09,480 --> 02:06:12,520
Speaker 1: Very philosophical difference here, which is that you put it

2683
02:06:12,600 --> 02:06:15,760
Speaker 1: on more on the individual, and I put it more

2684
02:06:15,840 --> 02:06:18,680
Speaker 1: on the systems and the structures that are in place

2685
02:06:18,920 --> 02:06:21,160
Speaker 1: that make it very difficult for people to be able

2686
02:06:21,200 --> 02:06:24,800
Speaker 1: to forward a family, stay married, get a house, get

2687
02:06:24,840 --> 02:06:27,760
Speaker 1: that you know, middle class sort of bourgeois stability that

2688
02:06:27,960 --> 02:06:30,800
Speaker 1: is the core of the American dream. So we'll put

2689
02:06:30,840 --> 02:06:33,880
Speaker 1: that philosophical ideological difference to the side. Because one piece

2690
02:06:33,880 --> 02:06:37,840
Speaker 1: that I'm very curious about is I mentioned before California

2691
02:06:38,000 --> 02:06:40,360
Speaker 1: Firmative Action has been dead for a while in terms

2692
02:06:40,440 --> 02:06:44,760
Speaker 1: of the UC system, and they've used some proxy workarounds

2693
02:06:44,760 --> 02:06:47,280
Speaker 1: that are basically like looking at class instead of looking

2694
02:06:47,360 --> 02:06:50,400
Speaker 1: at race. In Texas, they have a program where the

2695
02:06:50,400 --> 02:06:53,360
Speaker 1: top ten percent of high school grads at all, you

2696
02:06:53,360 --> 02:06:56,240
Speaker 1: know high schools within Texas that they are admitted to

2697
02:06:56,440 --> 02:07:00,600
Speaker 1: the UT system, and that has also had an impact

2698
02:07:00,720 --> 02:07:03,880
Speaker 1: of It's basically a workaround because you have, you know,

2699
02:07:03,960 --> 02:07:06,720
Speaker 1: schools that are really disparate and unequal, as I think

2700
02:07:06,760 --> 02:07:09,600
Speaker 1: Michael is aptly pointing out here, And so that also

2701
02:07:10,120 --> 02:07:13,160
Speaker 1: allows a disproportionate number I shouldn't say disproportioned, but more

2702
02:07:13,240 --> 02:07:16,960
Speaker 1: equivalent number of black and brown students to end up

2703
02:07:17,000 --> 02:07:21,160
Speaker 1: in the college system. So do you support those sorts

2704
02:07:21,200 --> 02:07:24,880
Speaker 1: of workarounds that are basically trying to achieve the same

2705
02:07:24,920 --> 02:07:28,080
Speaker 1: result but not allowed to go at it quite so directly?

2706
02:07:28,120 --> 02:07:30,040
Speaker 1: And also we should just say, did this just come down?

2707
02:07:30,200 --> 02:07:32,400
Speaker 3: Actually we actually just got talking.

2708
02:07:32,880 --> 02:07:35,160
Speaker 4: The Supreme Court ruled the Harvard and U and C

2709
02:07:35,360 --> 02:07:37,760
Speaker 4: race base I'm reading from a tweet here the affirmative

2710
02:07:37,760 --> 02:07:40,640
Speaker 4: action on a race basis on Constitutional six ' three.

2711
02:07:40,800 --> 02:07:42,320
Speaker 4: John Roberts has wrote the majority of.

2712
02:07:42,520 --> 02:07:45,840
Speaker 1: So probably a partisan down the line decision there is

2713
02:07:46,040 --> 02:07:49,080
Speaker 1: what was expected. But so then this is actually appropriate

2714
02:07:49,120 --> 02:07:53,240
Speaker 1: because the next fight will be are those workarounds that

2715
02:07:53,320 --> 02:07:56,240
Speaker 1: are trying to get it the same result but using

2716
02:07:56,360 --> 02:07:59,879
Speaker 1: proxies like class or geography or whatever. Are those acceptable

2717
02:07:59,920 --> 02:08:01,120
Speaker 1: to you or do you don't know?

2718
02:08:01,240 --> 02:08:04,160
Speaker 14: Problem about Texas's you know, top ten percent, Because again,

2719
02:08:04,560 --> 02:08:06,800
Speaker 14: the problem, the issue to me is not is not

2720
02:08:06,960 --> 02:08:11,240
Speaker 14: diversity as a concept. It's the use of race to

2721
02:08:11,360 --> 02:08:14,520
Speaker 14: impose a higher standard on some some groups of people

2722
02:08:14,920 --> 02:08:17,640
Speaker 14: and to judge other groups of people by a lower standard.

2723
02:08:17,680 --> 02:08:19,760
Speaker 14: And all of us know if we were talking about

2724
02:08:19,760 --> 02:08:23,160
Speaker 14: this in twenty forty three and black and Hispanic students

2725
02:08:23,160 --> 02:08:25,200
Speaker 14: were the ones who are knocking it out of the park,

2726
02:08:25,400 --> 02:08:28,160
Speaker 14: who had the highest SAT scores in the country, who

2727
02:08:28,200 --> 02:08:30,520
Speaker 14: spent the most amount of time doing homework and all

2728
02:08:30,560 --> 02:08:34,040
Speaker 14: those other things, and their numbers were basically capped at

2729
02:08:34,120 --> 02:08:36,880
Speaker 14: selected selective universities, we would have.

2730
02:08:36,840 --> 02:08:37,400
Speaker 8: A problem with it.

2731
02:08:37,480 --> 02:08:38,640
Speaker 10: Yeah, because quotas are illegal.

2732
02:08:39,040 --> 02:08:40,600
Speaker 7: But I'm but it's not. It's not.

2733
02:08:40,680 --> 02:08:42,720
Speaker 14: It's not just a quoter, because the Asian students will say, look,

2734
02:08:42,880 --> 02:08:45,840
Speaker 14: we've been at twenty three percent admittance to Harvard for

2735
02:08:45,840 --> 02:08:49,520
Speaker 14: the last however many years, even though we constitute by

2736
02:08:49,600 --> 02:08:53,120
Speaker 14: far the largest number of students with the top sort

2737
02:08:53,160 --> 02:08:56,440
Speaker 14: of academic dossiers that that applied to the school. So

2738
02:08:56,680 --> 02:08:58,840
Speaker 14: my point is, if if we were talking about the

2739
02:08:58,840 --> 02:09:01,440
Speaker 14: same thing with black still students where if you look

2740
02:09:01,440 --> 02:09:04,640
Speaker 14: at those top two deciles, you know you're talking about

2741
02:09:04,880 --> 02:09:08,400
Speaker 14: a significantly larger percentage of students in those death stiles

2742
02:09:09,160 --> 02:09:10,720
Speaker 14: than students from other groups.

2743
02:09:10,800 --> 02:09:11,640
Speaker 7: We would have a problem with it.

2744
02:09:11,680 --> 02:09:14,440
Speaker 14: And I can see Ben Crump right into tweet right now, right.

2745
02:09:14,720 --> 02:09:16,600
Speaker 14: You don't mind when we dribble a ball and dance

2746
02:09:16,640 --> 02:09:20,080
Speaker 14: for you, but when it comes to breaking into elite universities,

2747
02:09:20,240 --> 02:09:21,560
Speaker 14: now you want to cap our numbers.

2748
02:09:21,680 --> 02:09:23,480
Speaker 7: So I'm just holding to the same person.

2749
02:09:23,480 --> 02:09:25,080
Speaker 13: If we ever get to the day where that happens,

2750
02:09:25,120 --> 02:09:28,000
Speaker 13: then yeah, let's redress this. But at this moment, that's

2751
02:09:28,000 --> 02:09:30,880
Speaker 13: not what's going on. And I think the idea that

2752
02:09:31,120 --> 02:09:34,880
Speaker 13: Harvard and Yale are the only schools where affirmative action

2753
02:09:35,800 --> 02:09:38,800
Speaker 13: helps students is false. I mean, all over the country,

2754
02:09:38,880 --> 02:09:42,520
Speaker 13: affirmative action helps students get into University of Michigan and

2755
02:09:42,600 --> 02:09:44,120
Speaker 13: UVA State.

2756
02:09:43,880 --> 02:09:47,959
Speaker 14: Schools selective selective schools. As the school becomes less selective,

2757
02:09:48,080 --> 02:09:50,400
Speaker 14: the use of racial purposes tends to decrease.

2758
02:09:50,760 --> 02:09:55,080
Speaker 1: So, Michael, similar question to you, which is, as I said,

2759
02:09:55,120 --> 02:09:57,920
Speaker 1: it's not like in places where affirmative action has gone away,

2760
02:09:58,160 --> 02:10:00,720
Speaker 1: like they've just completely gotten rid of considering any of

2761
02:10:00,760 --> 02:10:04,560
Speaker 1: these characteristics and class has been a key workaround. I mean,

2762
02:10:04,600 --> 02:10:07,440
Speaker 1: how do you feel about that as a workaround, because

2763
02:10:07,480 --> 02:10:10,320
Speaker 1: on the one hand, it does acknowledge that Listen, people

2764
02:10:10,320 --> 02:10:13,680
Speaker 1: in West Virginia, they I mean, they weren't enslaved. I

2765
02:10:13,720 --> 02:10:15,640
Speaker 1: don't want to put it on the same level. They

2766
02:10:15,960 --> 02:10:18,480
Speaker 1: have been screwed over by company downs and all that stuff,

2767
02:10:18,520 --> 02:10:20,360
Speaker 1: and historically disadvantage.

2768
02:10:19,800 --> 02:10:21,480
Speaker 5: In their own special ways as well.

2769
02:10:21,560 --> 02:10:25,000
Speaker 1: So is class a better proxy at this point? Do

2770
02:10:25,040 --> 02:10:27,400
Speaker 1: you see it as a huge loss in terms of

2771
02:10:27,440 --> 02:10:29,680
Speaker 1: the goals that you're trying to achieve.

2772
02:10:30,040 --> 02:10:33,879
Speaker 13: I think incoming class should absolutely be another factor that's considered.

2773
02:10:33,920 --> 02:10:36,720
Speaker 13: I have no problem with that, you know, using Appalasia

2774
02:10:36,800 --> 02:10:39,200
Speaker 13: as an example, you know, the way they've been wrecked

2775
02:10:39,200 --> 02:10:41,960
Speaker 13: by the sacklers, the way that the coal industry has

2776
02:10:42,040 --> 02:10:44,760
Speaker 13: absolutely just destroyed towns and families.

2777
02:10:44,960 --> 02:10:46,680
Speaker 10: That's absolutely something we should consider.

2778
02:10:47,040 --> 02:10:52,160
Speaker 13: And just like considering race, I think considering how people

2779
02:10:52,560 --> 02:10:55,280
Speaker 13: economically have lived is something.

2780
02:10:55,440 --> 02:10:56,520
Speaker 10: That helps all of this.

2781
02:10:56,840 --> 02:10:59,040
Speaker 13: But the idea that we should just you know, carte

2782
02:10:59,040 --> 02:11:02,360
Speaker 13: blanche get rid of of, you know, race and history

2783
02:11:02,480 --> 02:11:05,560
Speaker 13: as factors, I think it belies a failure for us.

2784
02:11:05,720 --> 02:11:09,200
Speaker 14: So I could give a perfect example of of good

2785
02:11:09,200 --> 02:11:12,040
Speaker 14: diversity and bad diversity. And for the bad diversity, I

2786
02:11:12,040 --> 02:11:15,760
Speaker 14: won't even talk about. Right now, here's a good diversity,

2787
02:11:16,080 --> 02:11:18,440
Speaker 14: right And this one does does deal with race. I

2788
02:11:18,480 --> 02:11:22,040
Speaker 14: think of the Tuskegee Airmen, right, who were barred from

2789
02:11:22,080 --> 02:11:24,480
Speaker 14: being combat pilots for a period of time until you know,

2790
02:11:24,760 --> 02:11:28,480
Speaker 14: Congress that we want to make this available to every

2791
02:11:28,560 --> 02:11:30,880
Speaker 14: you know, to African Americans, so on and so forth.

2792
02:11:31,760 --> 02:11:35,160
Speaker 14: Those men went through the same, if not higher standards

2793
02:11:35,160 --> 02:11:38,800
Speaker 14: than their white counterparts. So when you say, well, you know,

2794
02:11:38,840 --> 02:11:40,640
Speaker 14: if you're black, you're going to be looked on as

2795
02:11:40,680 --> 02:11:42,760
Speaker 14: as less than I actually think that's not the case,

2796
02:11:43,000 --> 02:11:45,560
Speaker 14: because no one puts an asterisk next to anything that

2797
02:11:45,560 --> 02:11:47,600
Speaker 14: the Tuskegee Airmen did. And actually, when the Air Force

2798
02:11:47,640 --> 02:11:51,960
Speaker 14: did their first top gun competition, it was it was

2799
02:11:52,040 --> 02:11:54,520
Speaker 14: too It was a Tuski airman who won the first one.

2800
02:11:55,520 --> 02:11:58,200
Speaker 14: So to me, that's wider net diversity. But tell the

2801
02:11:58,240 --> 02:12:00,600
Speaker 14: whole story. When they came home, they then had to

2802
02:12:00,600 --> 02:12:01,160
Speaker 14: sit in the.

2803
02:12:01,080 --> 02:12:01,720
Speaker 10: Back of the bus.

2804
02:12:01,800 --> 02:12:04,160
Speaker 14: Correct, But that's but that's not the point. This is

2805
02:12:04,520 --> 02:12:06,520
Speaker 14: but that's none of You're gonna tell the whole story.

2806
02:12:06,560 --> 02:12:09,280
Speaker 14: This is this is I'm making a point about diversity specifically,

2807
02:12:09,400 --> 02:12:11,760
Speaker 14: not redlining on any of this other stuff. Right, And

2808
02:12:11,840 --> 02:12:13,520
Speaker 14: I don't even dispute your history. I'm just saying that's

2809
02:12:13,560 --> 02:12:17,120
Speaker 14: not the point. Here's here's bad diversity, because we all

2810
02:12:17,160 --> 02:12:19,280
Speaker 14: know this doesn't just stop at race, it's all different

2811
02:12:19,280 --> 02:12:23,600
Speaker 14: types of characteristics. When the Biden administration celebrates the appointment

2812
02:12:23,640 --> 02:12:26,520
Speaker 14: of Sam Brenton, right, they said, it's not just oh

2813
02:12:26,560 --> 02:12:29,240
Speaker 14: he deals with nuclear rods and all this other stuff.

2814
02:12:29,280 --> 02:12:32,960
Speaker 14: It's oh, we're so happy he is a non binary, so.

2815
02:12:32,960 --> 02:12:35,360
Speaker 7: On so on individual. Okay, what does that have to

2816
02:12:35,360 --> 02:12:36,520
Speaker 7: do with his qualifications?

2817
02:12:36,560 --> 02:12:38,160
Speaker 10: Representation matters, right.

2818
02:12:38,480 --> 02:12:42,440
Speaker 14: So so, and it does. I'm not saying representation does

2819
02:12:42,480 --> 02:12:46,040
Speaker 14: not matter. I'm just saying skill and merit matter more so.

2820
02:12:46,160 --> 02:12:49,680
Speaker 14: I prefer the type of diversity, right, that finds people

2821
02:12:49,720 --> 02:12:52,720
Speaker 14: who fly planes, not the type of diversity that gets

2822
02:12:52,760 --> 02:12:54,360
Speaker 14: people who steal from the airport.

2823
02:12:54,720 --> 02:12:54,880
Speaker 7: Right.

2824
02:12:55,040 --> 02:12:57,560
Speaker 14: And that's that's why he's no longer in the administration,

2825
02:12:58,120 --> 02:13:00,800
Speaker 14: because because they were they were looking for the wrong thing.

2826
02:13:00,840 --> 02:13:03,919
Speaker 14: They put their emphastest on the wrong salable. It wasn't

2827
02:13:03,720 --> 02:13:07,200
Speaker 14: about Sam Britton's qualifications, it was about his identity. And

2828
02:13:07,240 --> 02:13:09,960
Speaker 14: to me, that is the lower bar type of diversity.

2829
02:13:10,000 --> 02:13:11,880
Speaker 14: And I'm full wider net not lower bar.

2830
02:13:12,400 --> 02:13:16,080
Speaker 4: Well, history was made while we were talking to you guys,

2831
02:13:16,120 --> 02:13:18,080
Speaker 4: and while we were actually having this debate, and so

2832
02:13:18,280 --> 02:13:21,760
Speaker 4: I will read a pretty big quote here from Chief

2833
02:13:21,840 --> 02:13:24,800
Speaker 4: Justice John Roberts and his conclusion and the decision. He says,

2834
02:13:25,000 --> 02:13:27,880
Speaker 4: a benefit to a student who overcame racial discrimination, for example,

2835
02:13:27,960 --> 02:13:30,960
Speaker 4: must be tied to that student's courage and determination. Or

2836
02:13:31,000 --> 02:13:33,360
Speaker 4: a benefit to a student whose heritage or culture motivated

2837
02:13:33,400 --> 02:13:35,680
Speaker 4: him or her to assume a leadership role or attain

2838
02:13:35,760 --> 02:13:38,280
Speaker 4: a particular goal must be tied to that student's unique

2839
02:13:38,280 --> 02:13:41,240
Speaker 4: ability to contribute to the university. In other words, the

2840
02:13:41,280 --> 02:13:44,320
Speaker 4: student must be treated based on his or her experiences

2841
02:13:44,320 --> 02:13:46,680
Speaker 4: and an individual, not on the basis of race. Many

2842
02:13:46,760 --> 02:13:48,880
Speaker 4: universities have for too long done just the opposite, and

2843
02:13:48,960 --> 02:13:51,400
Speaker 4: in doing so, they have concluded wrongly that the touchstone

2844
02:13:51,520 --> 02:13:54,480
Speaker 4: of an individual's identity is not challenges bested, skills built,

2845
02:13:54,640 --> 02:13:57,000
Speaker 4: or lessons learned, but the color of their skin. Our

2846
02:13:57,040 --> 02:14:01,040
Speaker 4: constitutional history does not tolerate that choice. So that's where

2847
02:14:01,320 --> 02:14:02,840
Speaker 4: Chief Justice John Roberts came down.

2848
02:14:02,920 --> 02:14:04,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, Michael, let me just I'll give you the last word.

2849
02:14:04,880 --> 02:14:08,120
Speaker 1: Since we'll let you respond to Chief Justice John Roberts

2850
02:14:08,120 --> 02:14:10,720
Speaker 1: here and then super grateful though for this debate from

2851
02:14:10,720 --> 02:14:12,600
Speaker 1: both of you and the contributions that you both made.

2852
02:14:12,640 --> 02:14:13,760
Speaker 5: Thank you, go ahead respond.

2853
02:14:13,880 --> 02:14:15,840
Speaker 13: I would just say John Roberts is the same person

2854
02:14:15,920 --> 02:14:18,520
Speaker 13: who said that since we have a black we had

2855
02:14:18,520 --> 02:14:21,839
Speaker 13: a black president, that race should no longer be considered

2856
02:14:21,880 --> 02:14:24,240
Speaker 13: in terms of like voting protections and things like that

2857
02:14:24,280 --> 02:14:27,240
Speaker 13: when you strip rate the voting rates. We obviously know

2858
02:14:27,320 --> 02:14:30,120
Speaker 13: that's not true because we've watched Republicans attack the right

2859
02:14:30,160 --> 02:14:32,480
Speaker 13: to vote for African Americans all over the country.

2860
02:14:33,120 --> 02:14:33,920
Speaker 10: We have a history.

2861
02:14:34,040 --> 02:14:35,760
Speaker 13: I think we've got to tell the whole story about

2862
02:14:35,760 --> 02:14:38,120
Speaker 13: that history and not just try to cherry pick things.

2863
02:14:38,160 --> 02:14:40,640
Speaker 13: And you do the holistic approach. I think that's when

2864
02:14:40,680 --> 02:14:42,720
Speaker 13: you actually achieve the goals that we want.

2865
02:14:42,840 --> 02:14:45,280
Speaker 3: It's one of the best debates that I can remember.

2866
02:14:45,400 --> 02:14:48,040
Speaker 5: Really enjoyed hearing both of your perspectives. Thank you, telling you,

2867
02:14:48,200 --> 02:14:50,480
Speaker 5: thanks for taking the time. So that's the show for today.

2868
02:14:51,040 --> 02:14:53,400
Speaker 1: You know, it got a little bit like mixed up

2869
02:14:53,440 --> 02:14:56,960
Speaker 1: because we had huge, historic breaking news with the Supreme Court.

2870
02:14:57,040 --> 02:15:00,360
Speaker 1: Literally while we're recording the panel that ruling coming down,

2871
02:15:00,400 --> 02:15:02,040
Speaker 1: So wanted to make sure that we sort of let

2872
02:15:02,080 --> 02:15:05,000
Speaker 1: that all air out. Super excited to have Congressman Conna

2873
02:15:05,080 --> 02:15:06,960
Speaker 1: in studio with us as well, and I think breaking

2874
02:15:07,000 --> 02:15:09,440
Speaker 1: some news there on a number of fronts. So thank

2875
02:15:09,480 --> 02:15:12,240
Speaker 1: you guys for watching, Thank you Emily for sitting in

2876
02:15:12,320 --> 02:15:14,720
Speaker 1: for Sager. We are actually going to be off a

2877
02:15:14,720 --> 02:15:16,960
Speaker 1: couple days early in the week next week, celebrating the

2878
02:15:17,000 --> 02:15:19,360
Speaker 1: Fourth of July holiday. I hope you guys all enjoy

2879
02:15:19,480 --> 02:15:22,080
Speaker 1: your Fourth of July holiday as well, and we will

2880
02:15:22,120 --> 02:15:24,600
Speaker 1: be back here a week from today on Thursday, and

2881
02:15:24,640 --> 02:15:27,080
Speaker 1: it will once again let's do it again, Emily, why not.

2882
02:15:27,240 --> 02:15:28,960
Speaker 4: I'm so sorry to break it to everyone, but I

2883
02:15:29,000 --> 02:15:31,640
Speaker 4: will be back for Sonder because he's off getting married.

2884
02:15:31,840 --> 02:15:34,080
Speaker 1: Yes indeed, so we want him to enjoy that, and

2885
02:15:34,200 --> 02:15:36,280
Speaker 1: many congratulations to him, and we'll see you guys soon