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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: Right all right, here we go, Pat throwing in show.

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Speaker 2: I'm saying it's a cash.

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Speaker 1: To see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win. Oh god, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kaba.

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Speaker 4: You want to pull.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Hello everyone, Welcome to the Super Bowl fifty four Fantasy

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Speaker 3: Flex on the Action Network Podcast. I'm Matthew Freeman, the

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Speaker 3: editor in chief of Fantasy Lapse, part of the Action Network.

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Speaker 3: In this episode, we're breaking down the Super Bowl fifty

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Speaker 3: four slate from a daily fantasy perspective, and we are

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Speaker 3: diving into those Super Bowl fifty four player prop bets.

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Speaker 3: It is Propapalooza with me as always, our Shawn Corner

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Speaker 3: and Chris raybell On. Shawn is our director of predictive

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Speaker 3: Analytics in one of the top end season fantasy football

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Speaker 3: rankers for the past half decade, and Chris is a

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Speaker 3: senior editor and analyst at the Action Network, a co

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Speaker 3: host of the Action Network show on Sirius XM Fantasy

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Speaker 3: Sports Radio, and a top five fantasy football ranker for

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Speaker 3: the twenty nineteen twenty NFL season. Gentlemen, we were looking

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Speaker 3: good and we are ready to bet on some Super

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Speaker 3: Bowl fifty four props. How are you guys doing?

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Speaker 4: I'm doing good man. I tried to get a haircut

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Speaker 4: before the show. My barber was not there yet. That's

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Speaker 4: typical New York barber fair. I guess it's like, oh noon,

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Speaker 4: too early for me.

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Speaker 1: I'll come in it like two. So thanks a lot, Bobby.

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Speaker 3: You got your haircut last week. You keep it sleek,

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Speaker 3: you keep it tight. Sean and I, like, we haven't

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Speaker 3: gotten haircuts in a long time, so I don't even

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Speaker 3: want to hear this barber talk from you.

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Speaker 4: Shampoo that was a new thing for me. Like, but

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Speaker 4: when I moved to with my girlfriend, Like, I was like,

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Speaker 4: you know, like water, isn't that good for your hair?

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Speaker 4: She's like, no, you gotta use shampoo every day. I

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Speaker 4: was like every day. So, like we do it in

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Speaker 4: different ways. You know, I slack on the shampoo. You

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Speaker 4: guys go weeks of that haircuts.

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Speaker 3: You know you take a shower every day. I do,

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Speaker 3: bet you.

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Speaker 2: Know I didn't.

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Speaker 3: I didn't think I would.

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Speaker 1: I didn't plan to.

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Speaker 4: But you know, it's just life happens, and sometimes you

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Speaker 4: got to leave your house.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, unfortunately.

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Speaker 3: You're so clean, Sean, how's it going over there with you?

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Speaker 1: No hair takes for me. I mean, we have a game,

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Speaker 1: a rare game where we have player props two weeks

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Speaker 1: in advance, so I've been a little more worried about

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Speaker 1: that than my hair.

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Speaker 3: Now, this is a fantastic game. If you look in

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Speaker 3: the Action Network app right now, you see that the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs are anywhere from one to two point favorites, the

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Speaker 3: total anywhere from fifty four to fifty five. We're expecting

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Speaker 3: a tight game, a high scoring game, which means that

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Speaker 3: there could be a lot of fun prop action to

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Speaker 3: bet on. And let's jump into it. I want to

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Speaker 3: get your thoughts first from the DFS perspective of how

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Speaker 3: to approach these smaller slates, especially one like this where

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Speaker 3: there's going to be a lot of action on it,

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Speaker 3: and you know, so higher prize pools, maybe more benefit

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Speaker 3: to being contrarian. Want to get your big picture takes

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Speaker 3: on that, Sean. Start with you, how do you approach

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Speaker 3: a Showdown slate like this?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so you know, every Showdown slate's unique in itself

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Speaker 1: and we're fortunate to have this just amazing matchup. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there's so much talent in this game, so there's a

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Speaker 1: lot you could do. I'm not going to say any

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Speaker 1: specific players you should have, but just when you make

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Speaker 1: your team, you know the captain slot. I'm sure Ray

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Speaker 1: Bond will touch on this, but the captain slot is

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Speaker 1: obviously important. I typically have you know, a wide receiver there,

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Speaker 1: or in this game, you could have a tight end.

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Speaker 1: I like having a guy that will get receptions on

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Speaker 1: a side like DK one point per reception. That's typically

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Speaker 1: the way to win these tournaments. But mostly you're going

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Speaker 1: to want to just have a team that correlates well

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Speaker 1: with itself. This game, there's some interesting correlations you could do.

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Speaker 1: You have the Mikol Hardman Chiefs defense stack, so if

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Speaker 1: he returned kick off or punt for a touchdown, you get,

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Speaker 1: you know, two touchdowns for one big slate like this.

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Speaker 1: Obviously you know him raturing touchdowns not likely, but it's

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Speaker 1: also not likely that you're gonna, you know, take down

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Speaker 1: a four hundred thousand entry tournament. So you just have

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Speaker 1: to you have to compare the odds of something happening

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Speaker 1: versus you know, being able to take down tournament like this,

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Speaker 1: So I'll have some hard man Chiefs defense stacks. I

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Speaker 1: also think, you know, Mahomes as a captain, you'll want

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Speaker 1: you know, say three players he'll be throwing the ball to.

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Speaker 1: So so just thinking about things like that correlation wise,

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Speaker 1: I think is the key to slights like this Rayball.

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Speaker 3: What are your thoughts on approaching a showdown slate? Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I you.

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Speaker 4: Know, totally agree about the you know, in tournaments you

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Speaker 4: definitely want receivers in the captain spot. And I think

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Speaker 4: the most important point that Sean probably hit on is

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Speaker 4: one out kind of underscore is you know, your lineup

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Speaker 4: has to essentially tell a story, like everything has to

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Speaker 4: be correlated. You have six spots or five spots on

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Speaker 4: FANDUL and you know, for example, if I'm going to

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Speaker 4: put somebody like Damian Williams in the captain spot, then

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Speaker 4: I'm probably going to fade Mahomes. I'm probably going to

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Speaker 4: go with only one other Chiefs pass catcher and kind

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Speaker 4: of say, okay, well, how could a lineup hit with

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Speaker 4: Damian Williams And let's say Tyreek Kal was the top

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Speaker 4: two scorers where Mahomes was was not or he was

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Speaker 4: just too expensive to be, you know, and then kind

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Speaker 4: of go from there.

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Speaker 1: So I think that's really important.

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Speaker 4: And I think, you know, in cash games, it's really

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Speaker 4: you know, it's always kind of the goal is the same.

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Speaker 1: At the outset.

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Speaker 4: You're always trying to get both quarterbacks and both top

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Speaker 4: running backs into your line up one way or another.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes you have to end up fading.

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Speaker 4: At least one of those four, but but the goal

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Speaker 4: is always the same. I think in this late you know,

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Speaker 4: it's it's you know, a lot of people, I think

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Speaker 4: in cash games make the mistake of like they want

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Speaker 4: to throw in like all of the stud receivers, and

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Speaker 4: a lot of times, no, try to get the quarterback

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Speaker 4: in first, and then if you can fit a receiver

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Speaker 4: or whatever not like you know, some some teams you

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Speaker 4: can I think in this late like you want to

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Speaker 4: get Mahomes and you want to get Garoppolo and and

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Speaker 4: then like Williams and and most of the other priorities

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Speaker 4: rather than like a Hill at Kelsey Advo guys like

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Speaker 4: that who seem maybe like they're better values, but you

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Speaker 4: just want to try to capture as much of the

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Speaker 4: rushing and passing touchdowns as you possibly can cash and

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Speaker 4: in the tournament. Yeah, it's it's it's it's receivers in

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Speaker 4: the captain spot or the running back.

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Speaker 1: But if the running back is.

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Speaker 4: There, just make sure that the rest of the lineup

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Speaker 4: kind of you know, there can't be too much going

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Speaker 4: on with the other team with your own pass catchers

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Speaker 4: on that team. If you're going to put the running

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Speaker 4: back in a captain spot, you've got to hope he

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Speaker 4: gets two three touchdowns kind of like last the championship

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Speaker 4: game where he mosted in the captain spot. You can't

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Speaker 4: really have like a Jimmy Garoppolo stack and that hit you.

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Speaker 4: I mean, it could hit in this game, but like

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Speaker 4: just pricing wise, it's going to be highly unlikely because

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Speaker 4: there's so much talent, as Sean mentioned, that you're.

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Speaker 1: Gonna have to kind of hit it perfectly.

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Speaker 4: And the guys at the bottom become extremely important, like

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Speaker 4: a guy like a Blake Bell or you know, Hardman,

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Speaker 4: DeMarcus Robinson, Kendrick Bourne, guys like that, they are going

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Speaker 4: to kind of play a key role because they could

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Speaker 4: decide a slate like this with so many expensive players.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so that's some DFS talk. We're going to get

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Speaker 3: into the players and structure. Most of our conversation around

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Speaker 3: player props, but if we have some DFS takes that

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Speaker 3: we want to talk about as we're running through the

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Speaker 3: different position groups, we can hit those. And obviously Raymond

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Speaker 3: will have his showdown slate for the Super Bowl, his

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Speaker 3: strategy piece coming out later on Fantasy Labs. Check that out. Guys,

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Speaker 3: let's get into the quarterback position. We've got Patrick Mahomes,

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Speaker 3: Jimmy Garoppolo. I want to get your thoughts on the

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Speaker 3: yardish props, but then any props that you like outside

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Speaker 3: of those for these guys. Mahomes has a yardish prop

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Speaker 3: right now of around three hundred and five point five. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: caveat if you have a lot of books at your disposal,

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Speaker 3: and it's a great idea to do that. It's a

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Speaker 3: best practice line shop for you know, the best possible

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Speaker 3: value out there. But right now, three hundred and five

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Speaker 3: point five yards for Patrick Mahomes, around two hundred and

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Speaker 3: forty point five for Jimmy Garoppolo. Sean, what are your

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Speaker 3: thoughts on those props? Any other props you like for

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Speaker 3: these guys?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so the I think the yards props are spot on.

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Speaker 1: I have their meeting right around there, and you know,

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Speaker 1: we could talk about it. You know, I think wide

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Speaker 1: receivers there are some opportunities for guys with lower projected

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Speaker 1: totals like that, that's where the value is. But with

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Speaker 1: passing yards, it takes a good like fifteen yards of

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Speaker 1: the off for to meet the threshold where I'm in

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Speaker 1: a bet. So these I'm staying away from. I think

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Speaker 1: they're they're pretty much on par. But for each quarterback,

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Speaker 1: I think they're rushing props are you know, favoring the

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Speaker 1: under a bit with Jimmy G. You know, books do

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Speaker 1: you usually offer four and a half yards for him

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Speaker 1: and usually just you know, pound the under usually have

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Speaker 1: fifty eight to sixty percent chance and he'll go under.

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Speaker 1: But this this game in particular, he's around fifty five percent.

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Speaker 1: And the reason that is I have for quarterback rushing yards,

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Speaker 1: I simulate out how they're going to rush, you know,

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Speaker 1: in the first fifty nine minutes of the game, and

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Speaker 1: then the opportunity for kneel downs at the end. So

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Speaker 1: a guy like Jimmy G, you know, they've won what

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Speaker 1: fourteen games, fifteen games total this year. His rushing stats

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Speaker 1: are going to have you know, Neil downs at the

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Speaker 1: end of the game. So typically he's gonna his meeting's

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Speaker 1: gonna be around two and a half. But this game,

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Speaker 1: you know, the Niners being you know, plus one plus

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Speaker 1: one and a half, it actually helps out his rushing prop.

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Speaker 1: So I'm probably gonna avoid it this game. But this

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Speaker 1: is usually a prop I attack, but that's why I'm

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Speaker 1: avoiding it this game. And then on the other side,

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Speaker 1: Patrick Maholmes, I mean, he's just been incredible rushing lately,

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Speaker 1: so you know, we have a really high total. I

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Speaker 1: think some books are up to thirty. Now, what's the

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Speaker 1: highest total you've seen for mahomes rushing prop right now

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Speaker 1: and a half at thirty two and a half. Okay, yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's so. Yeah. So if I get thirty two and

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Speaker 1: a half, that's now sixty three point nine percent, and

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Speaker 1: I've factored it. You know, he had the knee injury,

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Speaker 1: you know, halfway through the season, so I sort of

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Speaker 1: ignored his rushing stats in that range. So I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, the recent rushing boom for him, I think

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Speaker 1: we'll see that's still over, but that's still a high

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Speaker 1: projection for him. I think he's gonna stand in the

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Speaker 1: pocket and throw a lot in this game, So you know,

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Speaker 1: under thirty two and a half will be one of

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Speaker 1: my favorite plays I have that. Like I said, around

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Speaker 1: sixty three percent just goes to show you need to

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Speaker 1: line shop. If you have access to multiple books, make

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Speaker 1: sure you get the best numbers. So anything over twenty

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Speaker 1: nine a half for Mahomes rushing yards, I think I'll

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Speaker 1: be hitting the under.

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Speaker 3: All right, Raybo, what about you? Any props for these

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Speaker 3: two quarterbacks that you have your eye on.

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Speaker 4: I think the rushing for Mahomes is probably my favorite

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Speaker 4: one at this point. Jimmy g I'd probably still take

230
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Speaker 4: the under. I don't expect him to do much on

231
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Speaker 4: the ground either way. And like the passing attempts and

232
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Speaker 4: completions for Mahomes, the books have kind of inflated it

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Speaker 4: by like maybe a half of an attempt and a

234
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Speaker 4: half of a completion.

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Speaker 1: But people seem to be.

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Speaker 4: Betting me over so much that at a lot of

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Speaker 4: books you can find the unders at very favorable odds

238
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Speaker 4: for his attempts and completions, and the medians are twenty

239
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Speaker 4: three thirty five for Mahomes and in the last three

240
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Speaker 4: playoff games, you know they've fallen behind. You know, so

241
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Speaker 4: in the AFC Championship last year, fourteen nothing they fell behind,

242
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Speaker 4: and then in the in the playoff games this year,

243
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Speaker 4: they fell behind twenty four nothing, and then they fell.

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Speaker 1: Behind ten nothing to Tennessee.

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Speaker 4: And yet Mahomes didn't go over those numbers in any

246
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Speaker 4: of those three playoff games. So even if they fall behind,

247
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Speaker 4: especially against the defense, is good. I think there's still

248
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Speaker 4: a chance that those are pretty close to as true medians.

249
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Speaker 4: And when you're getting extremely favorable odds to bet the under,

250
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Speaker 4: you know, twenty three and a half or the under

251
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Speaker 4: thirty six and a half, I think you take it

252
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Speaker 4: there with Mahomes as well.

253
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Speaker 3: And very much with both of you guys. I really

254
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Speaker 3: like the Mahomes rushing under. I've put that in the

255
00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:47,160
Speaker 3: Action Network app is one of my my prop bets

256
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Speaker 3: for the game. And Raymond, I'm also with you on

257
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Speaker 3: under four completions and pass attempts for Mahomes to put

258
00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:58,679
Speaker 3: some numbers on it. If you look at DraftKings sportsbook

259
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Speaker 3: right now, the under thirty five and a half is

260
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Speaker 3: plus one fifteen for pass attempts, the under four twenty

261
00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:10,720
Speaker 3: three and a half completions is plus one twenty five,

262
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Speaker 3: So I like that you're getting positive numbers for both

263
00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:17,880
Speaker 3: of those. I like those quite a bit. Raybon, I'm

264
00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:24,040
Speaker 3: gonna have Sean mediate our touchdown prop conversation for Mahomes,

265
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Speaker 3: because Sean, we are split on this. I think at

266
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Speaker 3: one and a half as the over under for Mahomes

267
00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:34,280
Speaker 3: with a juice of minus two thirty five to the over,

268
00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:37,760
Speaker 3: which is heavy juice. I acknowledge that, and I originally

269
00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:40,599
Speaker 3: bet it at two fifteen, But even a juice of

270
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Speaker 3: two thirty five to the over, I still think that

271
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Speaker 3: there is some value there for Mahomes because in his

272
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Speaker 3: I understand he has a tough matchup, but in his

273
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Speaker 3: twenty seven career games with Tyreek Hill, he has a

274
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Speaker 3: median of three and he's hit the over in twenty

275
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Speaker 3: one of the twenty seven game, so he's done it

276
00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:03,559
Speaker 3: at close to seventy eight percent clip. So I still

277
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Speaker 3: think there's a little bit of value there on the over.

278
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Speaker 3: But I'm sure you think I am a fool, as

279
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Speaker 3: I can see by the smile on your face.

280
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Speaker 1: Now, I was going to ask in that sample size,

281
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Speaker 1: how many times did they face the forty nine ers.

282
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Speaker 3: I believe they did it once last year in the

283
00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:23,920
Speaker 3: Jimmy Garoppolo getting injured game.

284
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Speaker 1: Oh really, how many did Mahomes thrown that one?

285
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Speaker 3: It was three three hundred and fourteen yards, three touchdowns Losers.

286
00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:33,720
Speaker 4: I'm gonna lose this argument either way, because I'm looking

287
00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:36,160
Speaker 4: in the props too, and there's a bet quality of

288
00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:39,600
Speaker 4: ten to the over. But like so from my from

289
00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:42,400
Speaker 4: my perspective, so you take out the game, you look

290
00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:45,000
Speaker 4: at the games where Mahomes played, you know, this year,

291
00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:50,360
Speaker 4: and it's sixty percent essentially that he throws multiple touchdowns,

292
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Speaker 4: so about a forty percent chance that he doesn't. And

293
00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:54,440
Speaker 4: I get that, Like, okay, going back putting in the

294
00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:57,679
Speaker 4: you know, last year's numbers, it makes sense, but like

295
00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:00,920
Speaker 4: there was a big drop off, you know, in touchdowns

296
00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:01,959
Speaker 4: from this year to last year.

297
00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:04,640
Speaker 1: And then you know, looking at the San Francisco forty nine.

298
00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:07,400
Speaker 4: Ers, uh, fifty percent of the quarterbacks went over their

299
00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:08,040
Speaker 4: touchdown prop.

300
00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:10,920
Speaker 1: Fifty percent went under. You know.

301
00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:13,120
Speaker 4: To me, it's just I just don't see the value

302
00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:15,360
Speaker 4: at plut at minus two thirty five, Like I think

303
00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:18,319
Speaker 4: that's that's heavy. Like I mean, usually you see quarterback

304
00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:20,960
Speaker 4: touchdown props you know at the one and a half mark,

305
00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:24,000
Speaker 4: you know, well under two hundred. I get that it's Mahomes,

306
00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:27,040
Speaker 4: but especially because he has been running a little bit more.

307
00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:29,920
Speaker 4: Damian Williams has been, you know, scoring on the ground

308
00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,640
Speaker 4: quite a bit, and this is essentially the toughest defense

309
00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,880
Speaker 4: they faced all year outside the Patriots game, where they

310
00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:38,280
Speaker 4: only I think scored two touchdowns in that game.

311
00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:41,160
Speaker 1: I believe it was in the twenty three to sixteen win.

312
00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:43,880
Speaker 4: It's not something I would bet like, even if the

313
00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:46,320
Speaker 4: math says, even if the math were to say, okay,

314
00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:49,920
Speaker 4: the percentages say there's like a slight value on the over,

315
00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:52,120
Speaker 4: it's just not something I would bet on the over

316
00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:54,440
Speaker 4: at minus two thirty five, and I would rather just

317
00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:56,440
Speaker 4: take a chance on the under because there's more avenues

318
00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:59,080
Speaker 4: for it to hit, even if the Chiefs still give a.

319
00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:00,320
Speaker 1: Normal perform Rormans.

320
00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:03,000
Speaker 4: Why score three or four touchdowns again, you know, Damian

321
00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:04,960
Speaker 4: Williams could get a couple of Mahomes, could run one in.

322
00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:07,000
Speaker 4: They're just a lot more I think ways for that

323
00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:09,520
Speaker 4: to hit than Wayne two thirty five.

324
00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:14,760
Speaker 3: Okay, Sean's going to say something. I know he's gonna intervene.

325
00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:17,040
Speaker 3: It's gonna be on your behalf. So I'm just gonna

326
00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:19,680
Speaker 3: say before that, I know that the forty nine ers

327
00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:24,520
Speaker 3: have this unbelievable pass defense and it is really good.

328
00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:27,040
Speaker 3: But one thing that makes it good is that it's

329
00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:30,120
Speaker 3: sort of like a bend don't break where they don't

330
00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:33,440
Speaker 3: allow a lot of deep passes. But you know, they've

331
00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:37,440
Speaker 3: allowed twenty three passing touchdowns this year during the regular season.

332
00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:40,680
Speaker 3: It's not as if that is a Patriots level number.

333
00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:44,520
Speaker 3: The Patriots allowed only thirteen passing touchdowns this year. The

334
00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:49,360
Speaker 3: forty nine ers still allow decent quarterbacks, even if they're

335
00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:52,080
Speaker 3: not throwing the ball all the way down the field.

336
00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:56,040
Speaker 3: They still allow decent quarterbacks to throw touchdowns. And Patrick

337
00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:58,239
Speaker 3: Mahomes is better than a decent quarterback.

338
00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:00,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's steel like a one point four one point

339
00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:03,920
Speaker 4: four five or something. Twenty three and sixteen games like

340
00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:05,840
Speaker 4: that's that's not a lot of touchdowns.

341
00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:09,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, but that's also counting some of the horrible quarterbacks

342
00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:12,160
Speaker 3: that they were playing against, like guys who aren't like

343
00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:16,960
Speaker 3: league average, Mason Rudolph, Kyle Allen, Andy Dalton, Case Keenelm Like,

344
00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:19,560
Speaker 3: you take those out and the number gets even higher.

345
00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:22,480
Speaker 1: I can't split the Tiger because I was just gonna say,

346
00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:24,600
Speaker 1: I think the line spot on you. What was the

347
00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:27,080
Speaker 1: under price for that? Is it plus two hundred or

348
00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:28,280
Speaker 1: it should be.

349
00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:32,000
Speaker 4: I think there's just so much.

350
00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:34,840
Speaker 1: Juice on that. That's so the fair line I have

351
00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:37,880
Speaker 1: is like minus two ten for the over hat. So

352
00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:41,560
Speaker 1: I mean, bang both right and wrong at the same time.

353
00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:42,840
Speaker 1: I just I think it's a pass.

354
00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:48,160
Speaker 3: Friedman love was the over I'm just like, if Sean

355
00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:51,440
Speaker 3: sending the line at too ten, Raymond's right. I don't

356
00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:53,680
Speaker 3: have a problem saying that. I like, I I know,

357
00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:55,560
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna say Odds maker.

358
00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:59,960
Speaker 1: I feel I see how it is. One other point,

359
00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:01,920
Speaker 1: I mean, it seems like the Super Bowl we see

360
00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:04,119
Speaker 1: a lot more trickery. Also, I know on the fore

361
00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:07,359
Speaker 1: an Iner side we could see Emmanuel Sanders attempt to pass.

362
00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:09,840
Speaker 1: They always have a prop for a number of players

363
00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:11,960
Speaker 1: with an attempt to pass. Is there anybody on the

364
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:14,520
Speaker 1: Chiefs that you guys think like, does Tyreek Hill have

365
00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:17,120
Speaker 1: the ability to you know, roll out and throw the ball?

366
00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:20,080
Speaker 3: I don't think so. I don't think they're going to

367
00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:21,760
Speaker 3: take the ball out of Mahomes hands.

368
00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:23,960
Speaker 1: Right, That's what I'm thinking. Yeah, Andy ree would get

369
00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:24,760
Speaker 1: shitted on.

370
00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:26,720
Speaker 4: For days, like even if it was just like an

371
00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:30,800
Speaker 4: incompletion or like on a drive like much ass something

372
00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:32,080
Speaker 4: worse like it would get just.

373
00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:36,600
Speaker 1: For Sammy Watkins throwing an interception, like right, but I

374
00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:40,240
Speaker 1: think we're we're definitely going to see Emmanuel Sanders pass attempt. Yeah,

375
00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:41,960
Speaker 1: I could see that, like any one of those guys.

376
00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:46,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I like I think Shanahan's a little more

377
00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:49,280
Speaker 3: interested in the trickery, so I can see it. All right,

378
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:52,199
Speaker 3: Let's talk about these running backs, the two big guys,

379
00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:55,480
Speaker 3: Damian Williams, Raheem Mostert, the guys who are really standing out,

380
00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:58,240
Speaker 3: because at this point we really don't know what's happening

381
00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:01,240
Speaker 3: with Tevin Coleman yet to prack. You know, he seems

382
00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:03,320
Speaker 3: like he might play, but you know, we don't have

383
00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:05,720
Speaker 3: confirmation on that, and if he does play, he certainly

384
00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,800
Speaker 3: won't be one hundred percent the lines that we see

385
00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:13,080
Speaker 3: right now for Damian Williams fifty fifty one and a

386
00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:16,639
Speaker 3: half yards rushing three and a half to four and

387
00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:21,320
Speaker 3: a half receptions. Obviously, check your book to get the

388
00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:24,119
Speaker 3: best line there. I really like over three and a

389
00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:27,200
Speaker 3: half for the receptions, but depending on where you find

390
00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:31,120
Speaker 3: that thirty and a half yards receiving for Damian Williams

391
00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:33,960
Speaker 3: and then Raheem moster are I mean, this is obscene,

392
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:37,360
Speaker 3: but anywhere from sixty point five on the low end

393
00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:41,560
Speaker 3: to eighty point five on the high end. The rushing

394
00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:45,600
Speaker 3: yardage for Raheem most are a receptions prop of one

395
00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:49,960
Speaker 3: and a half and eleven point five yards receiving Sean.

396
00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:52,919
Speaker 3: Any thoughts on these guys and their props?

397
00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:56,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I have Mozart sort of TVD. Right now,

398
00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,359
Speaker 1: we're still waiting to find out exactly what's up with Coleman.

399
00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:03,000
Speaker 1: You know, his rushing prop if you see eighty, I

400
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:05,560
Speaker 1: would try to lock in the under on that. But still,

401
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,760
Speaker 1: you know, if Coleman's rolled out, you know he could

402
00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,560
Speaker 1: have a pretty beef projection on my end. So right

403
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,399
Speaker 1: now he's TBD. But Damian Williams I think offers a

404
00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:16,440
Speaker 1: ton of potential on a few props. Last week I

405
00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:19,240
Speaker 1: actually bet on the over twelve and a half rush

406
00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:23,200
Speaker 1: attempts and the under fifty seven and a half rushing yards.

407
00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,760
Speaker 1: His yards per carry on the air was pretty misleading.

408
00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:30,120
Speaker 1: He has a ninety one yard run and an eighty

409
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,080
Speaker 1: four yard run if you were to remove those two,

410
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:34,240
Speaker 1: you know, let's be fair, let's also remove his two

411
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:36,840
Speaker 1: shortest runs, which is like minus seven am. I say,

412
00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:39,000
Speaker 1: his yards per carr would be two point nine to

413
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,640
Speaker 1: eight or something like that. So he was a very

414
00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,720
Speaker 1: you know, low yard per carry kind of guy. You know,

415
00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,040
Speaker 1: over a large sample, you see you'll see big runs

416
00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:50,720
Speaker 1: like that. But my stimulator, you know, stimulates the entire game,

417
00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:53,159
Speaker 1: and it just showed, you know, his his meeting it

418
00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:55,760
Speaker 1: was closer to like forty nine fifty, and I thought

419
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,199
Speaker 1: his rush attempts would be around fourteen to fifteen. And

420
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 1: it's pretty much the same thing this week. So his

421
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,199
Speaker 1: rusher attempt at twelve and a half on FanDuel, the

422
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:06,320
Speaker 1: overs only minus one twenty six. I have that hitting

423
00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:08,600
Speaker 1: over sixty percent of the time. So that's one of

424
00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:12,320
Speaker 1: my favorite bets. That's a pretty stable stat you know,

425
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,119
Speaker 1: someone's volume in that regard. So so I love the

426
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 1: over there. I'm pretty much neutral. I think the rushing

427
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:19,960
Speaker 1: yard prop is pretty much spot on at fifty and

428
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:21,960
Speaker 1: a half. And then like you said, I think the

429
00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:24,399
Speaker 1: over three and a half our receptions, I'm showing a

430
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,119
Speaker 1: little value on that. I have that being closer to

431
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:31,359
Speaker 1: a fifty five percent hit rate, So there's some edge there.

432
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,000
Speaker 1: You know, it's not you know, bet the entire mortgage

433
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:35,880
Speaker 1: on it kind of bet. But he has some some

434
00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 1: opportunity in the volume markets. But I'll stay away on

435
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,439
Speaker 1: his yards markets. I think they're pretty much spot on Ramon.

436
00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 3: What do you think?

437
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I feel like the overrun is catchy, just because

438
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,600
Speaker 4: I did some research on this. And when a team

439
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:53,680
Speaker 4: like they're forty nine ers on defense, when they don't blitz,

440
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,200
Speaker 4: that is when you see an increase in running back

441
00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 4: target rate because what a blitz does, obviously it brings

442
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:01,600
Speaker 4: extra rushers and you have to kind of count for

443
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:03,680
Speaker 4: them with a running back more so than it's harder

444
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:05,200
Speaker 4: to do it with a tight end unless you kind

445
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:06,440
Speaker 4: of motion them into the backfield.

446
00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:09,200
Speaker 1: So sometimes teams blitz specifically.

447
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 4: To take running backs out of the pass game, and

448
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:13,080
Speaker 4: so the Niners, on the other hand, they get out

449
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 4: of pressure. But they're not a high percentage bwitz team,

450
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 4: fourth lowest rate. So you could use a guy like

451
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 4: a Blake Bell and he as that fifth skill player

452
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:23,159
Speaker 4: and weave him in to block if you need to

453
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:25,680
Speaker 4: on pass down. So I think Williams and the forty

454
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 4: nine is also allowed the lowest average up to target

455
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:31,159
Speaker 4: six point eight. I think they're going to force a

456
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,959
Speaker 4: lot of passes underneath, and I think Mahomes will kind

457
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 4: of take those in this game. That's not something you

458
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:37,480
Speaker 4: always see from the Chiefs, but that's just how they're

459
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 4: going to have to play against his defense.

460
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 1: So I like the over on Williams.

461
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,199
Speaker 4: I don't think the yards is as good of a

462
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:45,159
Speaker 4: bet in terms of receiving because the Niners have been

463
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 4: one of the best in terms of their yards per

464
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 4: catch allowed, yards per attempt allowed, and all that in

465
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 4: the pass game. But as far as there rushing, yeah,

466
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:54,439
Speaker 4: I'm in the same boat as Sean. I think that

467
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 4: the yards per Carrie has a danger to be low.

468
00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 4: I like the attempts more because I think San Francisco

469
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:01,479
Speaker 4: they shown that they can kind of take backs out

470
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 4: of the game. The last two running backs, Dalvin Cook

471
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,120
Speaker 4: and Aaron Jones both went under their rushing yard prop,

472
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,479
Speaker 4: but they both went over their reception prop, and then

473
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 4: I think they split the receiving yardage. So I think yeah,

474
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 4: over on receptions for Williams, under on on the Russian

475
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,120
Speaker 4: and then for most of yeah, it's too early to tell.

476
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 4: I mean I did walk in and under eighty and

477
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 4: a half. Kind of a speculative thing, but yeah, if

478
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 4: Coleman's ruled out, I don't know if they have any

479
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 4: confidence in Brita. So this is more of a speculative

480
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 4: thing because I think Coleman says he's gonna play. I

481
00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:36,359
Speaker 4: think it'll be out there, but you know, I can't

482
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 4: can't recommend that without knowing the full, you know, scope

483
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:41,400
Speaker 4: of the information.

484
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 1: And do you guys like, what's up with Sean McCoy.

485
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:46,399
Speaker 1: I guess I figured he's going to be, you know,

486
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 1: pretty much irrelevant, maybe get a carry, but I guess

487
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 1: he had some illness, so he was an active last week.

488
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:53,879
Speaker 1: Do you guys think he'll get any touches here?

489
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:58,000
Speaker 3: His illness sideline this?

490
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:03,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I remember seeing a play. I think

491
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 1: it was just out in the flat and Mahomes threw

492
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 1: it and it hit him in the ass. Like Darwin Thompson,

493
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 1: they probably will just have Damian Williams on the field

494
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 1: the entire game. Why would you even incorporate Thompson in

495
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 1: this game? So yeah, I think just Damian Williams could play,

496
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 1: you know, ninety plus percent of steps, especially if we

497
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:21,480
Speaker 1: think that McCoy is basically, you know, a healthy scratch

498
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 1: again this week.

499
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, sean kind of dove telling me with what you said.

500
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:28,919
Speaker 3: That's why I am pretty pretty bullish on Williams in

501
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 3: a variety of ways. Even though I tend to prefer

502
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 3: unders for player props, I think Williams is the one

503
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 3: guy where I'm really looking for the overs with him.

504
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 3: So I already bet early last week over fifty and

505
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 3: a half for him. And maybe that's not the best number,

506
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 3: but I don't mind it. In the the ten games

507
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 3: where he's had at least a sixty percent snap rate

508
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,479
Speaker 3: with the with the Chiefs, so going back to last season,

509
00:23:56,280 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 3: his median outcome has been sixty three rushing yard. But

510
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 3: I really like his capability as a receiver, and so

511
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 3: that's why I'm so optimistic on what he can do there.

512
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 3: In those ten games, he had five receptions and thirty

513
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 3: four point five receiving yards, and so you put all

514
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:19,400
Speaker 3: that together, there's a prop out there his total rushing

515
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 3: and receiving yards at DraftKings, it's eighty two point five,

516
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 3: and I like the over for that. That just seems

517
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 3: a little bit too low for me. I would put

518
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 3: the number a little bit higher than ninety. But I'm

519
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:36,959
Speaker 3: probably being a little too optimistic on Williams. But I

520
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 3: just think with how much he's going to be out there,

521
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 3: the potential that the Chiefs have to go away a

522
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 3: little bit from Travis Kelcey, have to go away a

523
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 3: little bit from Tyreek Hill because the forty nine ers,

524
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 3: I'm imagining those are the two players that they're really

525
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 3: going to seek to lock down. I think that could

526
00:24:55,640 --> 00:25:00,160
Speaker 3: amplify the opportunities that Williams gets. And as it is,

527
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 3: if he's out there for ninety percent of the snaps,

528
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 3: he's going to get a lot of opportunity anyway. So

529
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 3: I'm pretty optimistic on him. When it comes to moster,

530
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 3: seventy seven and a half as one of the numbers

531
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:16,159
Speaker 3: that's out there is just obscene. I'm shooting for the middle.

532
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 3: I took over sixty and a half early last week.

533
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 3: That number is still actually available at bet MGM, but

534
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 3: it has been juiced up to the over so that

535
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 3: they haven't actually moved the line. They've just juiced the over,

536
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:33,919
Speaker 3: so now it's at minus one eighty five. But you

537
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:38,879
Speaker 3: can still obviously find unders for seventy seven and a

538
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:40,880
Speaker 3: half and even eighty and a half, So I am

539
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 3: shooting for the middle. I have over sixty and a

540
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 3: half and under seventy seven and a half and hoping

541
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:49,399
Speaker 3: that we land in that sweet middle. Let's get to

542
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 3: some of these wide receivers. This is I think a

543
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:56,120
Speaker 3: really interesting group of guys here, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins,

544
00:25:56,119 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 3: Mikole Hardman, DeMarcus Robinson for the Chief and then on

545
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:04,439
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers Deebo, Samuel MAYNLD Sanders, and that

546
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:09,159
Speaker 3: sweet Kendrick Bourne, who, according to Chris Raybon, is the

547
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 3: greatest wide receiver in the history of not I would

548
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 3: say just the NFL, but any game ever in the

549
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 3: universe that involves any position designated wide receiver. Raymond, talk

550
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 3: to us about why you like Kendrick Bourne so so much?

551
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 4: All right, Like you've painted me into such a corner

552
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 4: and he's gonna get zero catches for zero yards and

553
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,159
Speaker 4: it's gonna suck. But no, So the reason I like

554
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 4: Born in the context of prop betting for this game

555
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 4: is and it's more to do with his touchdown props.

556
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 1: Really, So, there's I think a prop out there.

557
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 3: What is it?

558
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 4: Like something like twenty to one or even more than that.

559
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 4: I think it was like twenty four to one.

560
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it was first touchdown.

561
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,639
Speaker 4: So yeah, And I think thirty three percent of his

562
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:51,879
Speaker 4: touchdowns have come in the first quarter this year. He

563
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 4: did score the first touchdown of the game in Minnesota,

564
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:57,359
Speaker 4: but he has six touchdowns over his last eleven games.

565
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 4: He scored in five of those eleven, so I think

566
00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 4: there is some value on him.

567
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 1: He's going to kind of be the guy that.

568
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:05,880
Speaker 4: You know, we talk always about when people are betting

569
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 4: these props, they're hitting the overs.

570
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:08,360
Speaker 1: Well, no one's really.

571
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 4: Betting Kendrick Bourne, so you're not really going to see

572
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:13,359
Speaker 4: these lines like shoot up to where there is like

573
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:16,440
Speaker 4: the value is lost on these Kendrick Bourne touchdown props.

574
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 4: So he's had a multiple touchdown game over his last eleven,

575
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 4: he's had a couple of He's had again, six touchdowns

576
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 4: in his last eleven games. I think there's value on

577
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 4: all of his touchdown props, whether it's any time touchdown,

578
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 4: multiple touchdowns, or first touchdown for yardage.

579
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 1: I love the DeMarcus Robinson under.

580
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 4: I think you can get it as high as twenty

581
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:36,880
Speaker 4: six and a half at some books, I would bet

582
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 4: it as well as actually.

583
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:38,640
Speaker 1: Sixteen and a half.

584
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,200
Speaker 4: His median of targets with Tyreek Hill in the fourteen

585
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 4: games that they have both played is two targets. His

586
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 4: medium yardage in that game in those games is nine

587
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:50,919
Speaker 4: receiving yards. Now, forget the nine receiving yards, but two targets,

588
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:53,479
Speaker 4: he averages about just under eight yards of target, So

589
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:57,119
Speaker 4: that's about sixteen yards before you factor in the like

590
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,880
Speaker 4: how good the Niner defenses at limiting big ways down

591
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 4: the field. So I think there's a ton of value

592
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:04,920
Speaker 4: here because I think books are just kind of looking

593
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 4: at his season long numbers and fifty eight percent, fifty

594
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,919
Speaker 4: eight percent of DeMarcus Robinson's receiving yardage came in the

595
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:16,439
Speaker 4: four games that Tyreek Hill missed completely. So love the

596
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 4: under at his yardage prop all the way down to

597
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:20,680
Speaker 4: sixteen and a half.

598
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:24,879
Speaker 3: Okay, Sean, Two things, One, where are you on the

599
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 3: Kendrick Bourne controversy? And then two, any of the props

600
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 3: stand out for these guys.

601
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 1: Neutral and Kendrick Bourne. I mean, I always have him

602
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 1: two catches for twenty yards, So that's where the props

603
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 1: are right now. So that's a pass for me. But

604
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 1: you know, I do love the you know, something like

605
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 1: the first touchdown market. Guys like him can offer value,

606
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 1: so that that sharp that makes sense. I would say

607
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 1: Born and Mikole Hartmon for a first touchdown, Mikol Harman's

608
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 1: around seventeen to one. You know, like I said, he's

609
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 1: returning kickoffs, he'll be the first player to touch the ball.

610
00:28:58,200 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 1: Now it might be a meal down, but just think

611
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 1: like that. Little things like that, you can find a

612
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 1: little edge in those markets. Those are more just for

613
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 1: fun in my opinion. But yeah, the DeMarcus Robinson receiving yards,

614
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 1: that's one of my favorite bets as well. Right now,

615
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 1: you know, twenty and a half is you know, the

616
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 1: worst number I've seen, and I still have that fifty

617
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 1: eight point three percent going under. I have a median

618
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 1: being sixteen exactly. But you know, if you can get

619
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 1: twenty two and a half, you see the odds jump

620
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 1: up to sixty two and a half percent. So it's

621
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 1: just critical guys with these like lower receiving props, every

622
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 1: yard matter, so just make sure you're getting the best

623
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 1: number or you know, as we get closer to the

624
00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:36,719
Speaker 1: game time, these props might go up because you know,

625
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 1: they take a lot of overaction on these, so prop

626
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 1: like that, I would try to get twenty two or

627
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 1: over if you can get it, and that's over sixty

628
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 1: percent on chance I think it will hit. You know.

629
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 1: I'm just tearing at like sixty seven different receiving props

630
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 1: right now. And the other one that I found stood

631
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 1: out a little bit was Emmanuel Sanders' longest reception. I've

632
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 1: seen seventeen and a half out there. I have that

633
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 1: hitting over, you know, close to six the time, and

634
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:03,479
Speaker 1: it's interesting if you look back. I kind of went

635
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 1: through his game log and I think he's gone under

636
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:09,239
Speaker 1: that total in more than fifty percent of games. But

637
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 1: my simulator tries to take out that luck involved with

638
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 1: the prop like this, and he's you've seen a lot

639
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 1: of his long receptions sort of stacked in the same game,

640
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 1: so something like that has been a little bit fluky

641
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 1: with him. So I think especially in this game. You know,

642
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 1: the foreign ares have gone away with running the crap

643
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 1: out of all the past couple of games, but this

644
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 1: game they'll probably have to throw to keep up with

645
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. So a guy like Sanders I think has

646
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 1: potential for at least one catch over seventeen and a

647
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 1: half yards, so I would agree with my sim there

648
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:42,719
Speaker 1: another prop. I haven't seen any Kyle Yuschek receiving reception prompts,

649
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 1: but a guy like him, I'm typically betting the under.

650
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 1: So his receiving yards at twelve and a half, he

651
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 1: essentially is going to have to catch two balls to

652
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:54,239
Speaker 1: go over that. So I've spotted some value on use

653
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 1: check under twelve and a half receiving yards, and then

654
00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:58,280
Speaker 1: I guess the only other one I wanted to touch

655
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 1: on would be kill all of his receiving props. I'm

656
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 1: showing about a fifty six percent chance still go under.

657
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 1: He's a guy where his medium is going to be

658
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 1: a little bit lower. I'm going to be targeting heavily,

659
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 1: and you know, DFS tournaments and things like that. His

660
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 1: upside is phenomenal, but when it comes to these kind

661
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 1: of markets where we're betting on his median, it's always

662
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 1: a little bit skewed to the under here. So you know,

663
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:23,400
Speaker 1: tyre kill under seventy six Now for receiving yards, I

664
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 1: have that hitting fifty five percent of the time, So

665
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 1: those those will be some of the bets that will

666
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 1: be chipping off as well.

667
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, and Hardman I should have mention for DFS on DraftKings.

668
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 4: I think Hardman is one of those guys after you

669
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 4: get in you know, Mahomes, you're getting Garoppolo, and you

670
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 4: get in Damian Williams and you get in Rahee Moster,

671
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 4: you have some salary about just under four k to

672
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 4: play with their if you go Mahomes in the captain spot.

673
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 4: And so I think Hardman is crucial at twenty two

674
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 4: hundred as a guy that you can kind of round

675
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 4: out your lineups with. He's actually, you know so DeMarcus Robinson.

676
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 4: Another reason I like his unders is because you know,

677
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 4: we played thirty seven percent of the snatch last week,

678
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 4: that was a season low.

679
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 1: You know, Hardman he could benefit from that.

680
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 4: He's he played forty percent, so three percent more than

681
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 4: Dan Robinson.

682
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 1: So he's kind of on the up and up.

683
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 4: As far as the STASCO, I think he's a guy

684
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 4: that with the return, with the added benefit of getting

685
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 4: returns and potentially an increased work quote, you need to

686
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 4: get him in as kind of a punt play to

687
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 4: round out cash game lineups.

688
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 3: And I like Hardman quite a bit. On the Shawn

689
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 3: you mentioned this odds to score first touchdown. Obviously shop

690
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 3: around a little bit, but you can find him at

691
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 3: twenty two to one, which I think provides some pretty

692
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 3: decent value there. And you mentioned Kyle Yustchek, someone I'm

693
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 3: also interested in as a potential to catch the first pass.

694
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 3: You can find that at like ten to one, I

695
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 3: think twelve to one in some books.

696
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can definitely see Shanahan, you know, writing up

697
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 1: a play for use check first play the game, I

698
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 1: would bet, yeah, first catch of the game. Anything, what

699
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 1: thirty to one? What are you going to have? And

700
00:32:57,280 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 1: then still bet his under receiving yards total the half.

701
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 1: I think you could hit both. But yeah, I haven't

702
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 1: seen those props yet, but yeah, ued check first catches

703
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 1: pretty sharp.

704
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:09,720
Speaker 3: Okay, let's go to tight end, and there's obviously the

705
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 3: two best tight ends in the game, Travis Kelce George Kittle.

706
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 3: Both of these guys have remarkably similar props. You can

707
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 3: find their receiving totals anywhere from five and a half

708
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 3: to six receptions and seventy three and a half for

709
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:28,240
Speaker 3: Kittle seventy five and a half on the receiving yardage

710
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 3: for Travis Kelcey, and then there's a great head to

711
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 3: head prop which one is going to have more receiving

712
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 3: yards in this game? Kelsey is favored, I believe minus

713
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 3: one thirty and you can find Kittle as the underdog

714
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 3: at plus one oh five. Sean, where are you thinking

715
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 3: you want to invest for these two guys?

716
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, so, I mean I pretty much have them projected

717
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 1: the same, you know, six catches for around seventy three

718
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 1: yards as their median. I actually found some value on

719
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 1: George Kittle, so they have pretty much the same same props,

720
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 1: but the longest reception Kelsey's at twenty one and a

721
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 1: half and Kittle's at twenty four and a half. You know,

722
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 1: I kind of have them both hovering around like twenty

723
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 1: two and a half for their median. On that I

724
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 1: mean those I think those markets you can find quite

725
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 1: a bit of value if line is you know, one

726
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 1: to two off even so I'm going to look more

727
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 1: in a kill, but right now I have him at

728
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 1: fifty nine percent going under longest reception twenty four and

729
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 1: a half. I haven't personally vetted, you know, looking at

730
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,760
Speaker 1: his game a logs to see what might cause sports

731
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 1: books to set a line a little bit higher than

732
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 1: Kelsey here, but I'll look into that. But like I

733
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:37,000
Speaker 1: said with Emmanuel Sanders, I think a lot of his

734
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:39,720
Speaker 1: long receptions were kind of clustered in the same games,

735
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,480
Speaker 1: so he's been you know, he hasn't gotten over that

736
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:44,319
Speaker 1: number of more than fifty percent of the games. But

737
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 1: you know, regression and math have a way of evening

738
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 1: itself out. So I think Kitt'll I'll look into that.

739
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:51,759
Speaker 1: I'll write it up in my player prop guide, But

740
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:53,760
Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be value on his long reception

741
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 1: being under twenty four and a half. As as painful

742
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 1: as that might be to bet on kittle under, I

743
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 1: think that might be the market I'll be attacking.

744
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 3: Right To circle around to a couple of the props

745
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 3: we were mentioning earlier with the full backs. If you

746
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 3: want to bet on Anthony Sherman as the first Chiefs

747
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 3: player to have a reception, you can get that at

748
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 3: eighty to one. And if you want to bet on

749
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 3: Kyle ust Check to be the first forty nine Ers

750
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,839
Speaker 3: player with a reception, you can get that at ten

751
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 3: to one. So it's not as ye, yeah, at all,

752
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:26,240
Speaker 3: not as tasty.

753
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:28,920
Speaker 4: Man, I feel like I feel like because we were

754
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 4: so we recorded the Serious Show a couple of hours ago,

755
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 4: and we were like really excited about, like like irrationally

756
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 4: excited about Kyle ust check. I feel like somebody, like

757
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:40,840
Speaker 4: somebody out there put like a thousand bucks on it

758
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 4: and like just drove out because I think you. I

759
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,400
Speaker 4: swear you said twenty to one Friedman on the show

760
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 4: and now it's ten.

761
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 3: Now for use check, it was. It was definitely ten

762
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:49,319
Speaker 3: to one.

763
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 1: It was sure. I don't I don't think that.

764
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 3: Maybe I'm wrong, Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm thinking it was.

765
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 3: It was ten to one. But Sherman eighty to one

766
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:00,319
Speaker 3: is kind of interesting. And if you want to bet

767
00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 3: on player to have the first reception, Sherman is one

768
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:08,280
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty to one. And you checked just first

769
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:10,919
Speaker 3: reception in the game is twenty two to one.

770
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 1: Now Sherman would have he would have to be over

771
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 1: three hundred to one to even get me to even

772
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:17,840
Speaker 1: consider it. This isn't the Pro Bowl here.

773
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:21,879
Speaker 3: Well, by the way, the four pieces for the Pro

774
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 3: Bowl no.

775
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 1: Tight ends are good and Roberts. I didn't see Andre

776
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 1: Roberts coming. I hadn't projected for point two receptions. Just

777
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 1: in case. But yeah, that was a bit surprising.

778
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 3: All right, Rayvon, Where are you on these tight ends

779
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 3: Kelsey and Kittle.

780
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 1: I'm kind of the same, you know.

781
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 4: I think that they have similar medians. I think so

782
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 4: if I'm betting this, I think Kelsey is a guy

783
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 4: who I would feel more comfortable betting the under on

784
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 4: his yardage because I think again, the forty nine Ers

785
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 4: the way they play, they drop guys back in the

786
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 4: coverage and they allow a low average up to target.

787
00:36:57,960 --> 00:36:59,560
Speaker 1: They make quarterbacks get rid of the ball quick.

788
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 4: He could end up getting more receptions and going and

789
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 4: hitting like the six or going over just because it's

790
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:07,799
Speaker 4: taking the Chiefs longer to get down the field. They

791
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 4: have to dink and dunk a little more than usual

792
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:12,000
Speaker 4: in this game, So I could see him going over

793
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,560
Speaker 4: his receptions or at least pushing it if it's six

794
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:16,840
Speaker 4: and uh and still going under the yards.

795
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 1: With Kittle, it's a bit trickier.

796
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:22,319
Speaker 4: I think I would be more comfortable betting the under

797
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 4: on his receptions uh than his yards because Kittle is,

798
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 4: you know, has been a guy that can can turn

799
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 4: some big plays, and you know, the Niners are really

800
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 4: good at eliminating explosive plays a Chiefs not quite as good,

801
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 4: and the way Shanahan kind of schemes with with play

802
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:41,720
Speaker 4: action and because they're still run heavy, I could see

803
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:45,360
Speaker 4: a Kittle And that's probably why the longest reception market

804
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:47,319
Speaker 4: is what it is. That you know, it's probably just

805
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:49,800
Speaker 4: kind of a little bit of the Niners defense and

806
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 4: a little bit of you know, Kittle in the play action.

807
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 4: I could see him getting a big play off that.

808
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:57,880
Speaker 4: Uh so, I think his yard to trop like they

809
00:37:57,960 --> 00:37:59,879
Speaker 4: probably still would go under at most of the numbers

810
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 4: seeing out there, But if I had to pick one

811
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:04,840
Speaker 4: that I felt better about, it would be Kittle under

812
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 4: his receptions at six or five and a half juiced

813
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:10,799
Speaker 4: up and then and then Kelsey under his yardage at

814
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:13,320
Speaker 4: seventy looks like seventy four and a half.

815
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:16,360
Speaker 3: All right. If you look at the history of Super

816
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:22,840
Speaker 3: Bowl MVPs, we have running backs, quarterbacks, wide receivers, you know, linebackers.

817
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 3: One point we even had was like kick.

818
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 1: Returner, kick returner.

819
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 4: We had definitely, I mean, he's a wide receiver, but

820
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 4: he's listed I think as kick returner in the official.

821
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,799
Speaker 3: We've had We've had a cornerback with Larry Brown, We've

822
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 3: had a safety with Dexter Jackson, We've never had a

823
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 3: tight end. What do you think the odds are if

824
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 3: you look at Draft Kings sportsbook right now, we have

825
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:47,760
Speaker 3: Travis Kelcey at twenty to one, George Kittle at sixteen

826
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 3: to one odds maker, what do you think the chances

827
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:53,960
Speaker 3: are that one of those guys actually wins MVP?

828
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:54,919
Speaker 1: Ten?

829
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,680
Speaker 3: Are you just shooting from the hip? Are you shooting

830
00:38:58,680 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 3: from the hip?

831
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:01,640
Speaker 1: I mean, the thing with them, it's such a subjective

832
00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:04,240
Speaker 1: thing that you know, I don't have like a model

833
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:07,319
Speaker 1: for that. I would say about ten percent. So you know,

834
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:09,839
Speaker 1: I think if they have some prop like that, like

835
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 1: will a tight end when MVP set at ten to

836
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:15,319
Speaker 1: one odds? Yeah, Blake Bella in that.

837
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:19,359
Speaker 3: So I mean, yeah, so DraftKings actually does have play

838
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 3: DraftKings does have a prop on this and they have

839
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:25,279
Speaker 3: tight end at nine to one.

840
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, all right, I wouldn't bet it, but yeah,

841
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 1: that's a good line.

842
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:32,719
Speaker 3: Any more props that you guys are just hankering to

843
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:34,759
Speaker 3: talk about for Super Bowl fifty four?

844
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 4: Well, I think going back to that that the tight

845
00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 4: end MVP thing. So the issue with Kelsey is that

846
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:44,719
Speaker 4: he's he has the strongest correlation to Mahomes. If you

847
00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:48,879
Speaker 4: look at the Fantasy Labs, you know, showdown, you click

848
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 4: the player card, you can see the correlations for Fantasy.

849
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:53,319
Speaker 4: If Kelsey and Mahomes they have a point five to

850
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,759
Speaker 4: two correlation. It would just be tough for Kelsey to

851
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:57,879
Speaker 4: win it with such a high correlation because that means

852
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 4: Mahomes probably did throw for you know, two three scores

853
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:03,759
Speaker 4: and whatnot. So I think Kittle for me would still

854
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 4: be the better bet. And I really like Deebo Samuel

855
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 4: as a as a kind of long shot bet because

856
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:14,359
Speaker 4: he's he's had thirty nine percent of the forty nine

857
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:17,799
Speaker 4: ers receiving yardage over the last three games, he has

858
00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:20,320
Speaker 4: had twenty or more rushing yards, and five of the

859
00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 4: last seven a couple you know, he's popping big plays

860
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:25,360
Speaker 4: in the run game pretty much almost every time he

861
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 4: gets ah you know, every other handoff essentially, and he's

862
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:32,440
Speaker 4: gotten that we won, you know, in each of those games. So, uh,

863
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:35,960
Speaker 4: there's a scenario where Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't throw a ton

864
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 4: of yards, but Samuel gets a high percentage of them,

865
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 4: and then Samuel could conceivably score in both facets like

866
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:45,239
Speaker 4: he could score in the past game, he could score

867
00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:48,360
Speaker 4: in the run game. So if let's say the Niners

868
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 4: committee backfield somewhat does return to where Moster doesn't go

869
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 4: completely nuts, and Coleman or Brita don't either, Like I

870
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 4: just see, there's like a whole confluence of factors kind

871
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:00,839
Speaker 4: of adding up to if the forty nine Ers win.

872
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:04,839
Speaker 4: Deebo Samuel, I think has a decent bet at being

873
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 4: that player that stands out, and I think you can

874
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 4: get him at anywhere from twenty to twenty four to one.

875
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:13,680
Speaker 4: So I like that one as a long shot MVP bet,

876
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:17,759
Speaker 4: and I love him as a captain in DFS.

877
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:19,279
Speaker 3: Sean any other props you want to hit on.

878
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:22,400
Speaker 1: There is one other prop that's not a player prompt,

879
00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:24,799
Speaker 1: but it's a probably can only bet on the Seri Bowl.

880
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:28,359
Speaker 1: It's the total touchdown yardage market. I actually similar that

881
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:29,880
Speaker 1: out and I have it around one eleven and a

882
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 1: half and you can get it one oh two and

883
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 1: a half to one oh four at places, and I

884
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:37,279
Speaker 1: have that being around fifty six percent chance of going over,

885
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 1: and I think it just speaks to, you know, the

886
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:41,320
Speaker 1: explosive players we have in this game. We have Tyrak

887
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:44,800
Speaker 1: Hill Mosert can have a long touchdown run Deebo Samuel

888
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 1: as Raybaund just mentioned. So I think this game, well,

889
00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 1: you know, the forty Niners defense could limit the Chiefs somewhat.

890
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:52,479
Speaker 1: I think this market is a good way to sort

891
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 1: of invest in the explosiveness of the individual players in

892
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 1: this game. So I like the over basically any number

893
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:02,920
Speaker 1: seen out there for the total touchdown yarders in this game.

894
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 3: That's interesting. And if there's a kick return that counts

895
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 3: for it as well.

896
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, so I mean Emikol Harbon one hundred and

897
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:15,480
Speaker 1: four yard. Yeah, return touchdowns are already a hit, so yea, yeah.

898
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, A lots of like there two props that we've

899
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 3: talked about on The Serious Show looks at the market

900
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:27,360
Speaker 3: for scoring multiple touchdowns, and you can find I believe

901
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 3: Damian Williams out there for around three fifty. I want

902
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:34,200
Speaker 3: to make sure I'm kind of looking at some of

903
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:36,719
Speaker 3: the right numbers, and Raheem Moster out there for I

904
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:39,760
Speaker 3: think a similar number. Both guys actually have a pretty

905
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:43,840
Speaker 3: decent chance to score multiple touchdowns, and both of the teams,

906
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 3: especially the forty nine ers this year, I believe in

907
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 3: eight of their eighteen games, they've given multiple touchdowns to

908
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:53,279
Speaker 3: one of their running backs. And then Damian Williams in

909
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:57,560
Speaker 3: his ten games really as the lead back for the Chiefs,

910
00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:01,360
Speaker 3: he has scored multiple touchdowns in four of those games.

911
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:04,319
Speaker 3: So I think that there's some value there. But yeah,

912
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 3: Raybond take it away on the research there.

913
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:10,360
Speaker 4: Oh no, And and you also have with Sean McCoy

914
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:13,080
Speaker 4: and Darrel Williams each had a multi touchdown game. Yeah,

915
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 4: you want to kind of include that if you're kind

916
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:19,240
Speaker 4: of factoring it out. So yeah, I think those running backs,

917
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:21,560
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't know how great, like if you

918
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:23,400
Speaker 4: I mean, Sean could probably speak to this more, but

919
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:25,000
Speaker 4: I don't know how great the value is at like

920
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:26,719
Speaker 4: plus three fifty, But I mean I think it's like

921
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:28,880
Speaker 4: good enough to especially if you're a casual better and

922
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 4: you just want to get something that's like reasonable, you know,

923
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:32,880
Speaker 4: to happen.

924
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:34,080
Speaker 1: I think that's that's solid.

925
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:37,440
Speaker 4: And again I think the third receivers on both teams

926
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:40,360
Speaker 4: also offer value in the multi touchdown market. So Kendrick

927
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 4: Bourne for the Niners of course, and am By Coole

928
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:46,399
Speaker 4: Hartman for the Chiefs, especially because again he can get those,

929
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:49,440
Speaker 4: he can get those returns and those count as touchdown

930
00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:49,839
Speaker 4: as well.

931
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 3: All Right, that was gonna do it. For this episode

932
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:54,839
Speaker 3: of the Action Network podcast. You can follow Sean, Chris

933
00:43:54,840 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 3: and Me and the Action Network app at the Underscore Oddsmaker, Chris,

934
00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 3: Raybond and Matt at the Oorgle. Use the app to

935
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:02,840
Speaker 3: get real time odds and track your bets for free.

936
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 3: Check out the rest of our episodes and live shows

937
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:07,319
Speaker 3: this week. Please subscribe to and rate and review the

938
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 3: show on Apple Podcasts Radio dot com or wherever you

939
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 3: get your podcasts and don't forget. You can listen and

940
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:26,080
Speaker 3: download on Spotify. See you again next episode. We're finished

941
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:26,440
Speaker 3: talking