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Application times may vary and 0:01:41.240 --> 0:01:48.080 rates may vary. Hello there, Welcome to the Wednesday edition 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:51.480 of the Chuck Podcast. If it's Wednesday, it means somebody 0:01:51.600 --> 0:01:56.000 voted somewhere on Tuesday. And you know, for a lot 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:59.520 of Wednesdays between now and November, I'm going to be 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:04.520 leading with the campaign because they'll be an important primary 0:02:04.600 --> 0:02:08.040 night or an important Tuesday election, and you know we've 0:02:08.080 --> 0:02:10.359 only had a couple of important primary nights so far, 0:02:10.639 --> 0:02:12.560 Texas and Illinois being a big one. But we had 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:15.480 a big one, and it was a special election, in 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:20.040 this case, a special referendum. It's in Virginia. I've talked 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:23.239 a lot about this Virginia referendum, those of you who've forwarded, No, 0:02:23.400 --> 0:02:25.239 this is you know the state. I live in the state. 0:02:25.280 --> 0:02:28.640 I'm a resident in the state I'm voting in. I 0:02:28.680 --> 0:02:31.120 still consider myself a Floridian. First, you know where you're 0:02:31.120 --> 0:02:34.919 born and raised, you know always where you're from. Virginia 0:02:35.000 --> 0:02:37.040 is where I live. The irony of courses, I have 0:02:37.360 --> 0:02:40.760 now lived longer in Arlington and in Virginia than I 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:45.760 have any other state in the Union. So and yet 0:02:46.240 --> 0:02:48.520 I still consider myself a Floridian. And I'm probably not 0:02:48.560 --> 0:02:51.840 alone here in northern Virginia. But look the big news, 0:02:52.520 --> 0:02:56.840 and it would have been arguably bigger news had this 0:02:56.919 --> 0:03:00.160 referendum not passed. But I do think we have this 0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:01.960 sort of I do want to lay a few things 0:03:02.000 --> 0:03:06.520 out here. So Look, it's a it's a it's a 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:16.480 big win for Democrats in this respect. Look when Republicans 0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:20.200 started this in Texas and then Indiana and Missouri, and 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:23.720 we saw in some of these places, I think there 0:03:23.720 --> 0:03:27.120 were real question marks about whether you whether Democrats could 0:03:27.200 --> 0:03:30.800 unite enough, even in some of their blue estates to 0:03:30.919 --> 0:03:34.560 do something like this, And they had to create a 0:03:35.240 --> 0:03:38.640 in two of the states actually get referendum on the 0:03:38.680 --> 0:03:43.560 ballot basically to create a constitutional legitimacy in the state 0:03:43.600 --> 0:03:46.720 constitutions of California and Virginia and to pull this off. 0:03:47.280 --> 0:03:50.600 And they did it. Okay, they did it. I mean, 0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:53.880 I think it shows you the power, right, the power 0:03:54.640 --> 0:04:00.760 of of the of the Trump resistance is extraordinary. If 0:04:00.800 --> 0:04:05.920 it wasn't extraordinary, you wouldn't have California and Virginia successfully 0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:13.040 essentially creating special referendum, special elections, constitutional amendments to temporarily 0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:16.200 change how they do things in order to jerry rig 0:04:16.200 --> 0:04:19.520 a map in Democratics favor, in order to balance out 0:04:19.520 --> 0:04:24.960 what happened in Texas. So tactically, for a party that 0:04:25.080 --> 0:04:31.880 regularly brings knives to gunfights, I get that there's a 0:04:31.960 --> 0:04:37.200 feeling of satisfaction among some partisan Democrats this morning that 0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:42.479 like they that they fought fire with fire. Now, what 0:04:42.600 --> 0:04:45.360 I've been warning about, and I still think is a 0:04:45.400 --> 0:04:48.760 medium term issue for the party going forward is. I 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:50.919 do think the strength of the Democratic Party in the 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:53.919 Trump era has been there seen as the party that 0:04:53.960 --> 0:04:55.840 doesn't want to break the rules, that they're seen as 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:58.520 the party that are rule followers, that they're seen as 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:02.240 the party of fair districts. Right. This is a party 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:06.000 that has spent the last fifteen years of which many 0:05:06.080 --> 0:05:08.440 of US Virginia saw plenty of TV ads showing clips 0:05:08.440 --> 0:05:13.640 of Barack Obama lamenting jerrymandering, which the no referendum side 0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:16.839 amplified quite a bit in the last couple of weeks. 0:05:17.640 --> 0:05:19.719 I think it was so successful that the Yes side 0:05:19.720 --> 0:05:25.080 had to sort of redo some of their Obama driven 0:05:25.640 --> 0:05:34.960 at campaigns. And I think the fact that that they 0:05:34.960 --> 0:05:37.880 don't have this benefit of the doubt with the independent 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:41.520 voter right now, right, that's what this is. Where you 0:05:41.560 --> 0:05:44.560 know they're playing partisan games. We know that that's what 0:05:44.600 --> 0:05:47.159 they're doing. Wait a minute, now, you're going to do 0:05:47.200 --> 0:05:52.120 this too. And so while I get the short term benefit, 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:56.360 I get the near term you know help that this 0:05:56.440 --> 0:05:59.080 will give. And you know, I question how helpful this 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:03.880 will be. I think you could argue, and I've made 0:06:03.920 --> 0:06:05.839 this argument, You've heard it here before. I think you 0:06:05.839 --> 0:06:08.400 could argue that if Virginia didn't touch its map there, 0:06:08.440 --> 0:06:10.720 we're going to pick up two congressional districts in this 0:06:10.880 --> 0:06:14.520 the essentially the old first and the old second. The 0:06:14.560 --> 0:06:17.279 second is Virginia Beach. The first is this Northern Neck area, 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:21.400 which is sort of a a as the Northern Virginia 0:06:21.440 --> 0:06:24.560 suburbs continue to grow. Right, this is a place where, 0:06:24.560 --> 0:06:27.920 in some ways it was going to be an uphill campaign. 0:06:28.000 --> 0:06:30.760 But with the wind at the backs of the Democrats, 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:34.440 and particularly in Northern Virginia, I think there was a 0:06:34.440 --> 0:06:38.320 path to them getting an eight to three advantage with 0:06:38.440 --> 0:06:42.920 the with the map pre referendum, and so now they're 0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:44.680 going to have a map that in theory allows them 0:06:44.720 --> 0:06:47.400 to go ten to one. But there is all of 0:06:47.400 --> 0:06:50.560 a sudden now a whole bunch of Democratic primaries, and 0:06:50.640 --> 0:06:54.320 you know, just like what we've seen with the Republicans, 0:06:54.400 --> 0:06:58.320 right Democrats could overperform in Republican leaning districts if the 0:06:58.440 --> 0:07:01.360 quote unquote wrong person won the primary. You know, if 0:07:01.360 --> 0:07:05.359 it was two MAGA or two Tea party ish, that 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:07.479 could happen. But on the left side of the aisle 0:07:07.600 --> 0:07:11.040 right two progressive, two left leaning of a nominee and 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:12.720 then suddenly it opens the door. There are a couple 0:07:12.760 --> 0:07:16.280 of these districts that are you know, democratic advantage, but 0:07:16.320 --> 0:07:18.680 we're talking, you know, under five points when it comes 0:07:18.680 --> 0:07:23.400 to democratic advantage. So I'm not going to sit here 0:07:23.400 --> 0:07:25.520 and say this is a total success for the Democratic 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:29.360 Party unless it is ten to one for sure, or 0:07:30.840 --> 0:07:33.119 if they'd only the only way they win the House 0:07:33.200 --> 0:07:37.120 is on the backs of these remaps in California and Virginia. 0:07:37.200 --> 0:07:38.720 And when you start to just look at the three 0:07:38.760 --> 0:07:42.200 states that have done the most gerrymandering, right, Texas went 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:45.120 to try to find a net of five seats, California 0:07:45.160 --> 0:07:49.720 basically try to erase the five and and Virginia is 0:07:49.760 --> 0:07:53.400 trying to do four. So if the Democratic majority is 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:56.160 in the single digits, they win the control of the House. 0:07:56.200 --> 0:07:58.920 But it's in the single digits, well, then you're going 0:07:59.000 --> 0:08:00.240 to have to you you are going to have to 0:08:00.280 --> 0:08:03.520 point to these referendums in Virginia and in California as 0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:08.240 the difference that without it, it doesn't happen. If Democrats 0:08:08.320 --> 0:08:10.680 win the House and they're up to two hundred and 0:08:10.720 --> 0:08:14.920 thirty five members, which means they've netted somewhere between seventeen 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:17.840 eighteen ninety somewhere in the twenty you know, around basically 0:08:17.880 --> 0:08:24.200 between seventeen and twenty five districts. Then I I'm going 0:08:24.280 --> 0:08:26.280 to look at these maps as sort of wasted money. 0:08:27.280 --> 0:08:29.640 These referendums is wasted money because it means they would 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:33.440 have won the House regardless of these remaps, regardless of 0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:40.600 these referendum changes. And so the lingering question I have 0:08:40.640 --> 0:08:42.559 in my mind about all of this is not whether 0:08:42.720 --> 0:08:46.480 this is going to help them with the House. Look 0:08:46.640 --> 0:08:49.680 it is it is going to help Democrats are closer 0:08:49.720 --> 0:08:52.280 to taking control of the House today than they were yesterday. 0:08:52.440 --> 0:08:57.520 Simply call these referendums. I'm not discounting that, but at 0:08:57.520 --> 0:09:02.040 what cost. Just take in the state of Virginia, you know, 0:09:02.200 --> 0:09:04.920 Governor Abigail Spamberg, after winning by double digits, looking like 0:09:05.000 --> 0:09:10.520 sort of you know what the what the future of 0:09:10.520 --> 0:09:14.400 the Democratic Party could look like, has found herself dragged 0:09:14.400 --> 0:09:19.360 into becoming a very partisan looking governor, very unlike the 0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:24.040 Mark Warner and Tim Kaine and Ralph Northam models of governing. 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:27.360 Even Terry McAuliffe, who you know as a former National 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:29.800 Party chairman, I don't think anybody saw him at first 0:09:29.800 --> 0:09:33.560 as a honor, but he very much governed from the center. 0:09:34.920 --> 0:09:37.000 You know, he was he was you know, he may 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:41.840 be a thought of as a longtime partisan Democrat because 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:44.200 he was the chairman of the DNC, and you know, 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:46.439 and it's so close to the Clintons, and the Clintons 0:09:46.440 --> 0:09:49.880 are certainly synonymous with the Democratic Party, but it is 0:09:49.920 --> 0:09:52.480 of a different wing of the Democratic Party, right, much 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:55.400 more of the quote pro business wing of the Democratic Party. 0:09:55.440 --> 0:09:58.319 So when you look at sort of the four Democratic 0:09:58.360 --> 0:10:03.559 governors that have most recently preceded Abigail Spamberger, Terry mccauliffe, 0:10:03.640 --> 0:10:09.880 Ralph Northam, Mark Warner, and Tim Kaine, they either governed 0:10:10.880 --> 0:10:14.120 they all four tried to govern more from the center. 0:10:15.400 --> 0:10:19.400 I still think Governor Spamberger wants to govern from the center, 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:22.720 but she had to begin her term immediately as a 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:25.440 partisan warrior, right, because the first thing on the agenda 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:29.920 was getting this through the legislature. Then getting this you know, 0:10:30.200 --> 0:10:33.079 and by the way, this is not done done. There 0:10:33.120 --> 0:10:36.000 is still a court case, there's still this is likely 0:10:36.040 --> 0:10:39.400 to reach the State Supreme Court. The assumption is the 0:10:39.440 --> 0:10:43.480 courts will end up ruling in favor of the yes 0:10:43.600 --> 0:10:48.719 side on this, but there's the there's it's not an 0:10:48.840 --> 0:10:55.440 unreasonable ruling if they decide nope, they violated specific pieces 0:10:55.440 --> 0:11:00.240 of how this should get done. You know, perhaps you know, 0:11:00.280 --> 0:11:02.280 you could see a hybrid situation where they say, you 0:11:02.320 --> 0:11:05.719 know these maps, you got to redo this again if 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:09.160 you and you can make this constitutional going into twenty eight, 0:11:09.200 --> 0:11:11.320 but you can't do it for twenty six. Right, there's 0:11:11.360 --> 0:11:14.120 all sorts of scenarios that are still left. But I 0:11:14.120 --> 0:11:16.640 will tell you, like there's a bit of pandemonium now 0:11:16.800 --> 0:11:20.199 in how this election cycle works. So this map passes, 0:11:20.360 --> 0:11:22.880 believe it or not, we have these brand new districts 0:11:22.920 --> 0:11:30.480 that in theory are only now in law starting today, right, 0:11:30.480 --> 0:11:33.160 because the passage of this referendum as soon as it's certified, 0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:40.640 essentially puts these officially, So the new paps take a 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:47.000 fact immediately when this referendum becomes law. So as soon 0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:50.200 as it's certified, and it sometime today, maybe it's tomorrow 0:11:50.200 --> 0:11:52.920 that it's certified. So guess what the filing deadline is 0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:55.720 for the now new August fourth primary. Virginia has never 0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:59.640 had August primaries in recent history. Frankly, primaries are fairly 0:11:59.640 --> 0:12:01.960 new this century. There used to be a state that 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:05.760 did more of its nomination nominating process via conventions and 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:09.280 county caucuses and things like that. The shift towards primaries 0:12:09.280 --> 0:12:12.520 really began in the nineties. So now there's gonna be 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:17.160 an August primary for these federal races, and the filing 0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:22.120 deadline is Friday, as in this coming Friday. So we 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:27.319 may see some Republican incumbents retire. Whitman, the incumbent and 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:31.600 the current first congressional district, he's kind of politically homeless 0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:35.040 in the remap. He may decide not to file, but 0:12:35.880 --> 0:12:38.640 there may be pressure on all of these incumbents to 0:12:38.679 --> 0:12:41.440 go ahead and file if they're thinking about retirement, because 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:44.520 you know they're in theory. There's still this court case 0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:55.360 that that could end up disqualifying this referendum. So the 0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:58.760 nightmare scenario for the state and the Department of Elections 0:12:58.840 --> 0:13:02.920 is if the yes vote, if the state, if the 0:13:02.920 --> 0:13:06.280 Supreme Court later decides that the legislative process to put 0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:11.080 this referendum in place was unconstitution intitutional, then you would 0:13:11.080 --> 0:13:13.000 have candidates who filed for the districts under the new 0:13:13.040 --> 0:13:15.840 map suddenly running in a district that no longer exists. 0:13:17.440 --> 0:13:20.440 You could see the August fourth primary pushback again, you 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:26.200 could see a refiling period, so you know this is 0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:28.960 likely to be what the new map is, but nothing 0:13:29.040 --> 0:13:31.920 is concrete yet. Right the court, there is still a 0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:35.840 challenge to the constitutionality of this referendum and of what's 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:39.840 been done. It is still going through state courts. This 0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:41.680 is not something that would make itself to the US 0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:44.560 Supreme Court. This would be a Virginia decision within the 0:13:44.640 --> 0:13:52.400 Virginia court system. So it's probably you know, going to 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:57.800 get implemented. But even after this vote, we still have 0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:03.360 a bit of uncertainty. But big picture, the price that 0:14:03.400 --> 0:14:07.720 Democrats are paying to essentially stay what they believe is 0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:11.600 stay competitive in this House map, which again I don't 0:14:12.320 --> 0:14:14.480 think this was as dire as the picture that they 0:14:14.480 --> 0:14:18.200 were painting. And yes, we'll probably get another redistricting attempt 0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:21.640 now to counter Virginia in Florida, but there's only so 0:14:21.720 --> 0:14:24.840 much they can do in Florida. They also have a 0:14:24.880 --> 0:14:28.400 referendum that's in the constitution that well, that sort of 0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:31.240 they've got to be careful not to do this via 0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:34.120 partisan gain. If it looks like partisan gain, then they 0:14:34.120 --> 0:14:37.720 have constitutional problems. I think there's only so much they 0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:40.880 can do. Now we saw I'm you know, I'm stunned 0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:43.320 at how this ten to one map looks that they 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:48.800 took essentially northern Virginia and essentially did what Illinois did 0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:53.000 to maximize congressional seats there for Democrats, which is, you know, 0:14:53.120 --> 0:14:57.520 have as many districts touched the Chicago land as possible. Well, 0:14:57.560 --> 0:15:01.520 in Virginias, have as many districts touch northern Virginia as possible, 0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:04.280 and then you sort of sprout out like a like 0:15:04.360 --> 0:15:07.400 sort of a one sided octopus, if you would, on 0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:11.320 that front. Well, in Florida, where they think they can 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:16.720 make gains is to take those southeastern Democratic health districts 0:15:16.760 --> 0:15:19.720 and Broward and Palm Beach and parts of Dade County, 0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:26.120 Miami Dade County and essentially create slices of bacon from 0:15:26.320 --> 0:15:32.680 the Atlantic Coast to the Gulf coast and essentially bring 0:15:32.760 --> 0:15:37.680 in more Republicans into some of these East Coast Broward 0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:40.920 County and Palm Beach congressional districts and get Republicans from 0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:44.440 the southwest part of the state your Naples, your Sarasota, 0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:48.480 is your Fort Myers, etc. And that they can The 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:52.200 problem with that, though, is that they're going to make 0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:56.320 a lot of light red districts, and in a bad 0:15:56.400 --> 0:16:01.640 Republican year, light red districts can get flipped. So the 0:16:01.680 --> 0:16:06.000 possibility of a dummy mander for Florida messing around there 0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:10.160 is probably a bat higher than I think folks fully appreciate. 0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:17.880 But look in the long run, you know, I think 0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:21.800 the biggest loss for Democrats here is this brand issue 0:16:21.840 --> 0:16:27.280 that they're no longer seen as the party of honest reform. 0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:30.880 I think Donald Trump and the Republicans were not seen 0:16:30.920 --> 0:16:34.280 as a party that was interested in fairness or fair elections. 0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:36.800 And who am I speaking with the I'm talking about 0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:41.200 voters that are these independent, these unaffiliated voters that are 0:16:41.240 --> 0:16:45.480 not hard partisans. And when you look at when Democrats 0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:49.400 the successful election cycles for Democrats in the Trump era 0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:56.760 eighteen twenty in particular, they would over index with those 0:16:56.840 --> 0:16:59.760 voters in the middle who saw them as sort of, 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:06.000 you know, that even slightly center right voter. I think 0:17:06.040 --> 0:17:07.879 this is going to linger. I think this is going 0:17:07.920 --> 0:17:09.639 to leave a bad taste. And this is what's going 0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:14.280 to you know, the unintended there's always unintended consequences. I 0:17:14.280 --> 0:17:18.200 think the biggest unintended consequence of all of this gerrymandering 0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:21.000 that we've seen in all of this sort of hard 0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:25.200 partisanship in the States is that I think it only 0:17:25.240 --> 0:17:27.960 is going to increase demand for a third alternative now 0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:30.800 is it an independent, is alternative party, whatever you want 0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:33.080 to look at it. I just think that it only 0:17:33.720 --> 0:17:38.840 increases the appetite for that and it is you know, 0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:41.360 I will say this, I don't think the Democrats are 0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:45.639 improving their brand on this. They may make the base happy, 0:17:45.680 --> 0:17:48.080 it may fire them up, and Donald Trump is an 0:17:48.119 --> 0:17:53.359 amazing elixir here for the Democratic coalition. In fact, you know, 0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:55.639 NOE appeared to have a little bit of momentum. I 0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:57.480 think the worst thing that the No side did in 0:17:57.560 --> 0:18:01.840 Virginia was at Donald Trump to do a teletown hall 0:18:02.160 --> 0:18:03.919 the night before the election. And I get what they 0:18:03.920 --> 0:18:06.320 were trying to do, right, This is the trap of 0:18:06.359 --> 0:18:10.639 Donald Trump swing voters to test them, but base voters 0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:13.840 only get motivated by them. And so you know, the 0:18:14.520 --> 0:18:17.160 more you bring Trump involved in your campaign, the more 0:18:17.200 --> 0:18:21.920 you probably fire up queasy northern Virginia voters who maybe 0:18:21.960 --> 0:18:25.520 don't like this are a little bit uncomfortable with this, 0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:29.040 and then they see Trump and figure it out screw 0:18:29.080 --> 0:18:40.240 that guy. Right, So here we are, and I guess 0:18:40.280 --> 0:18:42.600 at this point, if you know, I already sort of 0:18:42.840 --> 0:18:46.919 believed the cake was already baked with the house, I 0:18:46.920 --> 0:18:50.800 think now Virginia might be icing. But it's all of 0:18:50.840 --> 0:18:54.480 those unintended consequences that that may not rear its head 0:18:54.520 --> 0:18:59.240 here this cycle, but may rear its ugly head in 0:18:59.320 --> 0:19:06.240 twenty twenty eight. And in the meantime, frankly may have 0:19:06.320 --> 0:19:09.120 done some long term you know, it may be that 0:19:09.160 --> 0:19:12.920 an Abigail Spamberger never fully recovers from starting being seen 0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:15.879 by the voting elector at aar in Virginia as seeing 0:19:16.880 --> 0:19:19.880 is more partisan than they expected her to be, and 0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:24.840 does that sort of hover over her term in a 0:19:24.840 --> 0:19:28.320 way that she never gets never gets out of. Look 0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:31.240 still a long way to go, and there may be 0:19:31.320 --> 0:19:33.800 moments where she decides to push back at her party 0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:36.679 in a more high profile ways. Now that this referendums 0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:39.439 out of the way, I'll be curious to see if 0:19:39.480 --> 0:19:42.160 she sort of starts to push back at the speaker, 0:19:42.800 --> 0:19:46.120 Louise Lucas, the sort of the most influential state senator 0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:49.160 there who right now look like they're the ones leading 0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:53.160 the party, while Governor Spamberger is sort of writing Shotgun. 0:19:56.800 --> 0:19:58.879 This episode of the Chuck Toddcast is brought to you 0:19:58.920 --> 0:20:01.200 by Soul. So if you love that end of the 0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:04.800 day unwined, but hate the hangover, Soul's out of Office 0:20:05.400 --> 0:20:08.840 is for you. 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Right now, 0:21:17.160 --> 0:21:20.320 Soul is offering my audience thirty percent off your entire order. 0:21:20.359 --> 0:21:23.359 Go to getsol dot com and use the word todcast. 0:21:23.520 --> 0:21:27.680 That's getsol dot com promo code toodcast for thirty percent off. 0:21:27.680 --> 0:21:34.120 And yes, I too, am a customer. The other big 0:21:34.160 --> 0:21:38.239 news of the day, of course, was something that I 0:21:38.280 --> 0:21:41.520 told you was going to happen here forty eight hours ago, 0:21:42.520 --> 0:21:46.000 that even if they didn't negotiate, that they were going 0:21:46.080 --> 0:21:48.960 to find a way to extend the ceasefire. And Donald 0:21:48.960 --> 0:21:55.800 Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire with iron if he hadn't singled, 0:21:56.680 --> 0:21:59.159 If you needed yet another signal that he does not 0:21:59.240 --> 0:22:03.040 want to restart the wore, we got it in spades 0:22:03.800 --> 0:22:08.920 on Tuesday night. Everything he asked Iran to do, they 0:22:08.920 --> 0:22:12.439 didn't do. And yet he agreed to extend a ceasefire anyway, 0:22:12.440 --> 0:22:15.359 and he called it an indefinite extension. Right. He didn't 0:22:15.359 --> 0:22:17.320 want to He didn't want to have to do this 0:22:17.359 --> 0:22:19.600 in another week, do this in another three days, do 0:22:19.640 --> 0:22:26.800 this in another two weeks. So Iran has essentially won 0:22:26.880 --> 0:22:29.760 the second round of negotiations by not showing up, and 0:22:29.800 --> 0:22:33.600 Donald Trump agreed to extend the ceasefire anyway. That's quite 0:22:33.600 --> 0:22:38.399 the capitulation by him, and it's quite an acknowledgment of 0:22:38.440 --> 0:22:44.080 the current situation. And this gets back to the to 0:22:44.200 --> 0:22:49.560 the trap that he put himself in because he's now 0:22:49.760 --> 0:22:51.679 found a way to start a war with Iran and 0:22:51.760 --> 0:22:56.879 somehow strengthen Iran's position in the region. And that's what 0:22:56.920 --> 0:22:58.600 this looks like at the moment, and the only way 0:22:58.600 --> 0:23:01.000 to undo it is to add and he doesn't have 0:23:01.000 --> 0:23:03.120 the stomach for it. And we know this because he's 0:23:03.200 --> 0:23:06.240 choosing not to do it already. Now. There is one 0:23:06.320 --> 0:23:09.040 thing that I think will eventually get the Iranians back 0:23:09.080 --> 0:23:14.000 to the table, and they's going to be the Chinese, right, 0:23:14.040 --> 0:23:16.600 They're only going to have so much patience for this 0:23:16.640 --> 0:23:19.480 strait of hormones to be closed. They're not going to 0:23:19.520 --> 0:23:22.360 be interested in having a confrontation with the United States. 0:23:22.800 --> 0:23:24.879 They want to have good relations with the United States. 0:23:24.920 --> 0:23:29.679 Their economy needs the United States. So at some point 0:23:29.720 --> 0:23:31.280 I think the Chinese are going to put a lot 0:23:31.280 --> 0:23:33.800 of pressure in the Iranians to get to the table 0:23:33.840 --> 0:23:36.399 and find an exit ramp, you know, get the straight 0:23:36.480 --> 0:23:41.479 open and find an exit ramp here. But think about 0:23:41.600 --> 0:23:44.520 what I just said, right, We're now waiting in the 0:23:44.600 --> 0:23:48.440 Chinese to put pressure in Iran because the United States 0:23:48.440 --> 0:23:52.240 couldn't do it. The United States couldn't make them do this. 0:23:53.000 --> 0:23:57.040 And don't start a war you're not prepared to finish. 0:23:57.440 --> 0:24:01.320 And Donald Trump started a war. He's not prepared to finish. 0:24:01.440 --> 0:24:05.119 He thought he could essentially blow hard his way uh 0:24:05.320 --> 0:24:10.040 and and get the Iranians to do his bidding without 0:24:10.720 --> 0:24:15.359 without without it being difficult. Right. He clearly thought the 0:24:15.440 --> 0:24:18.520 Venezuela example was going to work here, and it didn't. 0:24:19.600 --> 0:24:24.119 And I guess the good news is, if you're worried 0:24:24.119 --> 0:24:29.360 about us getting into a long, years long quagmire, he 0:24:29.400 --> 0:24:32.640 isn't going to do it. That's a I think that's 0:24:32.680 --> 0:24:35.080 a good thing for our troops. I think that's a 0:24:35.119 --> 0:24:38.240 good thing for a lot of Iranians. And so a 0:24:38.280 --> 0:24:41.040 lot of people are going to live instead of die. 0:24:42.119 --> 0:24:46.120 But strategically, this, if this is the scenario we're staring at, 0:24:46.280 --> 0:24:52.760