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Speaker 1: Joining me now is one of the journalists that I

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Speaker 1: always learned something from when I read her stuff in

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Speaker 1: The Atlantic and Apple Bomb, and in many ways I

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Speaker 1: know what I turned to her for and what I

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Speaker 1: read her most thoroughly about is whenever she's writing about

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Speaker 1: Central and Eastern European and what's going on in that

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Speaker 1: part of the world specifically. I want to timestamp this.

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Speaker 1: We are talking midday, Wednesday, November nineteenth, and it's important

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Speaker 1: to timestamp this because earlier this morning some news leak

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Speaker 1: that there is a supposed potential piece deal of soort

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Speaker 1: it's being circulated that was, I guess negotiated by the

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Speaker 1: President's personal on voice Steve Whitcoff, with an envoy of

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Speaker 1: the Russians, and it is now they are supposedly shopping

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Speaker 1: around to see if, in the words of the Axios reporting,

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Speaker 1: essentially can they jam the Ukrainians to take this deal.

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Speaker 1: Doesn't seem as if many people know about this deal,

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Speaker 1: and if you does have the whiff for what it's

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Speaker 1: worth of a leak in order to try to turn

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Speaker 1: the page on stories perhaps this administration doesn't like on

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Speaker 1: the front page. That's the cynic in me. But I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to make an apple bomb day with that

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Speaker 1: aspect of this story. And is also author of a

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Speaker 1: brand new book, Autocracy inc. Right, it's it's new ish.

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Speaker 2: It came out in paperback this year, and it has

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Speaker 2: a new paper.

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Speaker 1: Yes, yes, well, and I obviously want to talk about that,

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Speaker 1: But let's start with I mean, look, at any given day,

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Speaker 1: I would have asked you this, which is, you know,

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Speaker 1: will I don't feel like the war between Russian and

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Speaker 1: Ukraine is going to end even if there's a cease fire.

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Speaker 1: But I guess that's the question. Are we going to

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Speaker 1: have a period this year where there is no exchange

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Speaker 1: of fire between the Russians and the Ukrainians.

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Speaker 2: So to be clear right now on this, you've just

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Speaker 2: time stamped the date one of the things that's been

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Speaker 2: true about this war since the very very beginning is

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Speaker 2: still true, and that is that Vladimir Putin has never

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Speaker 2: said that he will give up his original war aims,

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Speaker 2: and his original war aims remain the conquest or the

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Speaker 2: occupation or the or just the control of all of

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Speaker 2: Ukraine and the prevention of the existence of a Ukrainian

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Speaker 2: government that would have sovereignty and would be able to

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Speaker 2: make trade deals with the European Union, and would be

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Speaker 2: able to run the country the way they want to

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Speaker 2: run it. And so he's never said that, he's never

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Speaker 2: acknowledged the legitimous legitimacy of President Zelenski. He's never said

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Speaker 2: he wants to stop fighting. He's never acknowledged, as I said,

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Speaker 2: the right of Ukrainians to be Ukrainians. He's continued to

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Speaker 2: talk about them as if they were part of Russia.

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Speaker 2: And it seems to me that until he gives that up,

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Speaker 2: and it's and he would have to do it publicly,

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Speaker 2: I mean, he would have to do it in some

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Speaker 2: way where he says it, then it's very hard to

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Speaker 2: see how we get to the end of the war.

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Speaker 2: The war will end when the Russians stop fighting and

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Speaker 2: when they say we're not going to conquer all of Ukraine,

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Speaker 2: and then we can talk about ceasefires, or we can

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Speaker 2: talk about where the border's going to be, and there

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Speaker 2: are a lot of other things we could negotiate, but

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Speaker 2: we haven't reached that moment. What worries me about the

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Speaker 2: news that we heard today, aside from the piece of

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Speaker 2: it that you mentioned that it feels a little bit

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Speaker 2: like let's haul an old story out of the you know,

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Speaker 2: out of the trash can and put it back on

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Speaker 2: the front pages so that we can distract from stuff

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Speaker 2: we don't want to talk about. I mean, what what

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Speaker 2: worries me is the is the persistence of the two

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Speaker 2: main negotiators, and this is Steve Witkoff and Kirol Dimitriev.

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Speaker 2: We know who Witkof is. He's Trump's friend from the

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Speaker 2: real estate agency, was involved in Gaza. He's someone who

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Speaker 2: doesn't know Russia and Ukraine very well. He doesn't know

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Speaker 2: any of the history or any of the people.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think he would now dispute that.

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Speaker 2: He might he might now dispute it. But his main

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Speaker 2: interlocutor has been Kirol Dimitriev, who's the head important because

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Speaker 2: he's the head of the Russian Sovereign Wealth Fund, and

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Speaker 2: a lot of what Wikoff and Demetria have apparently been

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Speaker 2: talking about is not so much peace in Ukraine but

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Speaker 2: business deals that might be done between the United States

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Speaker 2: and Russia. And that's not really a very good starting

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Speaker 2: point as far as I'm concerned, or as anybody Ukrainians

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Speaker 2: are concerned, or the Europeans are concerned. That's not really

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Speaker 2: a good starting point for talking about how to end

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Speaker 2: the war, because because the thing that will in the

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Speaker 2: war is expressions of American European commitment to Ukraine. Well,

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Speaker 2: you know, Putin has to be persuaded that Ukraine will

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Speaker 2: be able to continue fighting for a long time, and

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Speaker 2: then maybe he will rethink his maynaim. And that's not

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Speaker 2: the role that would Cough is playing.

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Speaker 1: I'm just going to cut to the chase here. If

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Speaker 1: I just think about this as game theory. But if

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Speaker 1: I'm Vladimir Putin, I have the most supportive, malleable American

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Speaker 1: president that I'll ever have, probably right, and he knows

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Speaker 1: he can, and he continues. It feels as if he

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Speaker 1: gets to put he has pushed Trump further closer and

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Speaker 1: closer to him. As this is dragged on, and now

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Speaker 1: they've negotiated without the Europeans and without the Ukrainians. Here

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Speaker 1: is there a point where where where Putin is overreaching

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Speaker 1: Here and even even Trump will realize he's being played.

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Speaker 2: Trump seems to be resistant to the idea that he's

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Speaker 2: being played. He he continually it's it's and it's strange

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Speaker 2: because he's so easily offended by everybody else, by other leaders,

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Speaker 2: by journalists. But there are particular people. Actually, the Saudi

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Speaker 2: crown Prince was one of them. We saw that in

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Speaker 2: Washington also yesterday. Putin is another who seemed to have

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Speaker 2: a special status for him. And my guess is it's

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Speaker 2: because they're very rich, and he thinks that he can

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Speaker 2: do business deals with them, and he doesn't want them insulted,

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Speaker 2: and he doesn't seem to take what he doesn't take

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Speaker 2: their insults as as seriously as he does others. And

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Speaker 2: so it doesn't it doesn't feel like he's close to that.

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Speaker 2: I mean, he may be miscalculating in another way, though,

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Speaker 2: which is that you know, point in the war, the

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Speaker 2: Europeans are supporting the Ukrainians far more than the US is,

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Speaker 2: certainly in sheer monetary terms. They definitely are. And the

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Speaker 2: Ukrainians themselves, also, as the President would have put it,

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Speaker 2: have their own cards, they have their own weapons industry.

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Speaker 2: They made two million drones last year and they're going

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Speaker 2: to make four million drones this year, and they've been

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Speaker 2: using them to effectively hit Russian oil refineries and other

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Speaker 2: targets connected to the oil and gas industry. And you know,

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Speaker 2: it's not clear that Trump has control over this war.

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Speaker 2: In other words, a decision that he makes will end it.

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Speaker 2: So it's a it's an odd moment where we're still

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Speaker 2: playing the game putin talking to Trumpell and the war,

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Speaker 2: but there are so many other factors now that he

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Speaker 2: doesn't seem to be taking into account.

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Speaker 1: According to this report in Xios, there was a sense

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Speaker 1: that and you could hear it that the that certain

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Speaker 1: members of the administration think that Zelenski's politically weak at

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Speaker 1: the moment because of the scandal that just sort of

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Speaker 1: forced out a few of his cabinet ministers, and that

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Speaker 1: they essentially can jam him. I know you've got particular

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Speaker 1: insight on that on the ground domestically with Ukraine. What

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Speaker 1: kind of what kind of political peril is Zelenski in

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Speaker 1: at the moment domestically.

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Speaker 2: So remember that the reason there is a corruption scandal

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Speaker 2: right now in Ukraine is that the Ukrainian state, a

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Speaker 2: state institution, is investigating the operations of the state. In

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Speaker 2: other words, this is the Ukrainian government acting. And although

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Speaker 2: it has identified a couple of ministers who one or

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Speaker 2: two of whom are close to Zelenski, it's doing so

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Speaker 2: within the law. It's not as if, you know, the

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Speaker 2: IMF has come in and said you're corrupt, or even

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Speaker 2: Germans we have or something there or right, or the

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Speaker 2: US has. This is actually internal to the Ukrainian political

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Speaker 2: system and it's part of Ukrainian democracy and it's supported

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Speaker 2: by most Ukrainians. And so assuming that Zelenski you know,

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Speaker 2: doesn't try to block it or stop it, and so

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Speaker 2: far he hasn't. So far, he done nothing like that.

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Speaker 2: He said, you know, let the investigations continue. Assuming that continues,

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Speaker 2: then he may emerge more strongly from this scandal actually

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Speaker 2: because he would then be seen to have presided over

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Speaker 2: something that Ukrainians want, which is a kind of clean government. This,

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Speaker 2: by the way, the nature of the scandal is not

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Speaker 2: to do with US or European AID, so at least

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Speaker 2: not as far as we know so far. It's to

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Speaker 2: do with kickbacks on contracts, which is more which is

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Speaker 2: more internal.

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Speaker 1: I hate to call it this. It felt like running

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Speaker 1: the mill government graft when I read the story, right, like,

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Speaker 1: you're like, oh, well, this happens pretty much everywhere around

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Speaker 1: the world. There's always somebody's skimming something off the top

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Speaker 1: or are getting up.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And also, of course it's something that you can't imagine

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Speaker 2: in cash Betel's FBI doing like you can't imagine this

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Speaker 2: happening now in the United States. So cash Betel's FBI

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Speaker 2: investigating Trump administration deals for example, or or or Trump

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Speaker 2: cabinet members. So this is evidence of the strength of

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Speaker 2: Ukrainian democracy and of transparency and so on. So you

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Speaker 2: have to you have to keep that in mind.

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Speaker 1: Do you think it's a miscalculation that there's a moment

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Speaker 1: to jam Zelensky here that the US may be misreading

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Speaker 1: the situation.

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Speaker 2: So given that we I don't know any of the details,

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Speaker 2: well none of us, right, I mean, the Ukrainians you know,

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Speaker 2: have no interest in ending the war, or I should

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Speaker 2: say that differently, they have they have no interest in

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Speaker 2: how creating a ceasefire for the sake of a ceasefire.

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Speaker 2: In other words, having a ceasefire that will just kick

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Speaker 2: the problem down the road a little while, give the

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Speaker 2: Russians time to rearm h and start the war again.

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Speaker 2: That's not something that they find use. I mean, there's

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Speaker 2: a there's a problem actually with the way wit Coff

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Speaker 2: and Trump negotiate, which is that they want a big headline,

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Speaker 2: just like the same thing has just happened in Gaza,

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Speaker 2: big headline, end of the war, ceasefire, hostages returned forgetting

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Speaker 2: that loss of hostages were returned by the Biden administration

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Speaker 2: as well. And then actually there is no solution, and

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Speaker 2: we don't know how the war is going to end,

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Speaker 2: and actually the fighting is continuing in new ways, and

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Speaker 2: I think the Ukrainians are afraid of that. And there,

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Speaker 2: you know, so there's no you know, there's you know,

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Speaker 2: unless they're going to be offered something that has some substance,

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Speaker 2: in other words, stop fighting right now, which, by the way,

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Speaker 2: they've said they would do, stop fighting right now on

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Speaker 2: the current you know, on the current battle front lines. Uh.

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Speaker 2: And you know, then we will ensure that we reinforce

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Speaker 2: you and then we can begin negotiations with some kind

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Speaker 2: of guarantee that the Russians won't use this uh to

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Speaker 2: to start fighting again. I mean, unless there's something that

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Speaker 2: offers them something real, then I don't see how you

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Speaker 2: can jam them. As I said, they have their own agency,

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Speaker 2: they have their own sources of.

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Speaker 1: Money, and at this point the war itself has changed

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Speaker 1: in that it's not using as many It's a drone

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Speaker 1: war more or less.

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Speaker 2: Right now, this is a really important point, and I

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Speaker 2: don't think it's really understood by most Americans. This is

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Speaker 2: a completely different kind of war from the kind of

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Speaker 2: war it was at the beginning, and it's also a

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Speaker 2: different kind of war from any war in history. So

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Speaker 2: there is a there is a kind of ten twenty

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Speaker 2: miles on either side of the front line which are

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Speaker 2: now completely transparent. Everything can be seen because there's so

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Speaker 2: many drones in the air, and that means that old

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Speaker 2: kinds of military tactics whereby you know you did a

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Speaker 2: secret raid or you've got are all visible. And it's

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Speaker 2: very very hard in that situation to move forward because

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Speaker 2: as soon as any Russian trucks or tanks or people

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Speaker 2: move into this visible zone, the Ukrainians can hit them.

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Speaker 2: And so the tactics of the war have been about

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Speaker 2: electronic warfare, how the drones are being used, and the

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Speaker 2: Ukrainians also now have a system whereby the drone industry

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Speaker 2: is connected directly to the front line, so as the

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Speaker 2: situation changes on the front line, they radio back to

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Speaker 2: the factory not far away, and they change the way

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Speaker 2: the drone is being built, or they change the software

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Speaker 2: whatever needs to be changed. So there's a kind of

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Speaker 2: constant updating of the technology, which I mean is also

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Speaker 2: the speed of it is something that I don't think

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Speaker 2: we've seen anywhere else before.

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Speaker 1: So it's such a strange war. And you're right, I've

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Speaker 1: been trying to get my I had Dexter focus on

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Speaker 1: recently and he was he had just been there trying

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Speaker 1: to explain and how frankly, how the Pentagon now is

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Speaker 1: studying rights, everyone is studying what's happening here, because obviously

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Speaker 1: warfare is going to change with the with the advent

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Speaker 1: of drones. But that so if you if you need

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Speaker 1: fewer human soldiers, but there are now more defenseless civilians,

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Speaker 1: and both the Ukrainians and the Russians are using their

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Speaker 1: drones to go to try to write I assume the

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Speaker 1: new pressure points are civilian population.

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Speaker 2: So what the Russians are doing is hitting civilian cities

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Speaker 2: very very hard. Actually, there was one this morning in Tarnopol.

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Speaker 2: There was a something like seven miss cruise missiles that

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Speaker 2: may not be precise, but a very strong attack hit

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Speaker 2: a Ukrainian city that's pretty far from the front line. Actually,

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Speaker 2: it's kind of in western Ukraine. And that's how the

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Speaker 2: Russians have been seeking to terrorize and demoralize Ukrainians. Ukrainians

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Speaker 2: are doing something different, which is the Ukrainians, as I said,

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Speaker 2: are hitting Russian energy export infrastructure and oil refineries, and

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Speaker 2: they're doing so pretty effectively, so much so that they've

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Speaker 2: taken out about a quarter of Russia's refining capability. In

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Speaker 2: the recent they hit a very important export port on

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Speaker 2: the Black Sea, which is where oil goes through. And

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Speaker 2: so their calculation is that the Russians don't care about men,

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Speaker 2: you know, so they don't care how many people die,

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Speaker 2: they're not bothered by that. But they do care about money,

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Speaker 2: as one put it to me, and so they're trying

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Speaker 2: to you know, their effort to stop the war is

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Speaker 2: going that way. You know, they need to make the

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Speaker 2: cost of the war so high that, as I said,

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Speaker 2: the point being that Putin changes his mind and you know,

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Speaker 2: and begins to think it's unwinnable or it's not worth winning,

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Speaker 2: which is, by the way, how colonial wars, which is

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Speaker 2: what this is, usually end, is that the capital decides

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Speaker 2: that it's not worth it anymore and the colony is

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Speaker 2: allowed to go. If you look at the Algerian French

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Speaker 2: War in Algeria or something like that.

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Speaker 1: Look, you can't go a week without seeing a headline

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Speaker 1: whether it's in the Financial Times, but somewhere in Europe

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Speaker 1: that does try to some reporting out of Russia. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the economy seems to be in just wretched shape in

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Speaker 1: Russia that all of this is finally having is taking

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Speaker 1: a toll. I mean, at what point does domestic pressure

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Speaker 1: play a role here?

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Speaker 2: Well, Putin has constructed his political system so that he

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Speaker 2: feels very little domestic pressure. You know, there isn't a

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Speaker 2: pathway for domestic pressure to express itself.

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Speaker 1: Sure, but if people are not happy with that, the

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Speaker 1: economy they start to get I mean it feels as

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Speaker 1: if they're talking more and more. Put it that way,

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Speaker 1: because there's more reports about this.

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Speaker 2: People are talking more, people are angrier. Actually, there isn't

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Speaker 2: real polling in Russia, but there are some opposition groups

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Speaker 2: who do kind of measuring of sentiment online and that

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Speaker 2: certainly swung against the war. I mean. Another kind of

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Speaker 2: grim statistic is the number of people who commit suicide

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Speaker 2: in the Russian lead mysteriously or fall out of windows

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Speaker 2: or somehow or other disappear. And that number has also

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Speaker 2: been pretty high recently, And so that means that those

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Speaker 2: are people who are expressing in their circles some kind

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Speaker 2: of descent or who are otherwise not going along with

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Speaker 2: the program. And that's evidence that there is that You're right,

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Speaker 2: there is this pressure. I mean, just the question is

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Speaker 2: when at what point it really reaches Putin enforces this.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's actually a political change, a change in

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Speaker 2: language and rhetoric that either he has to make or

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Speaker 2: his successful.

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Speaker 1: There's a reason results matter more than promises, just like

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Speaker 1: there's a reason. Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury

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Speaker 1: twenty five billion dollars for more than half a million clients.

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Speaker 1: It includes cases where insurance companies offered next to nothing

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Speaker 1: just hoping to get away with paying as little as possible.

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Speaker 1: Morgan and Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact,

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Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, client was awarded twenty six million dollars, which

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Speaker 1: was a staggering forty times the amount that the insurance

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Speaker 1: company originally offered. That original offer six hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars twenty six million, six hundred and fifty thousand dollars.

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Speaker 1: So with more than one thousand lawyers across the country,

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Speaker 1: So check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free

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Speaker 1: unless they win the killing off Progosion, I mean Putin

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Speaker 1: was probably saved himself on that because there is nobody

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Speaker 1: that can sort of challenge him internally if someone chose to,

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Speaker 1: but he.

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Speaker 2: Could have well Progosion. Yeah, Progosion had a real constituency

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Speaker 2: and his constituency if you for those who don't remember,

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Speaker 2: he was the lead leader of the Wagner group who

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Speaker 2: staged this extraordinary which was a kind of paramilitary mercenarif

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Speaker 2: that's right. He had originally been a chef. He ran

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Speaker 2: actually he was the one who yeah, he was the

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Speaker 2: one who ran the online influence operations during the twenty

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Speaker 2: sixteen election here so, and he then became the head

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Speaker 2: of this mercenary force and he had a real constituency,

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Speaker 2: so the mercenaries were very devoted to him. So he

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Speaker 2: actually had armed men who were on his side and

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Speaker 2: who were becoming at that time very critical of the

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Speaker 2: war and of why it was being fought and why

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Speaker 2: it had started in a lot I mean speaking of corruption,

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Speaker 2: the enormous amount of corruption around defense in the military there,

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Speaker 2: and so he expressed it by making this critical statements.

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Speaker 2: And then he launched this march on Moscow that he boarded,

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Speaker 2: and then afterwards he had a plane accident. So he

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Speaker 2: was he was an example of someone who had a constituency.

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Speaker 2: And the problem with other opponents of Putin that they

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Speaker 2: don't have that they don't have, you know, a team

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Speaker 2: of armed guys that they can count on who might

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Speaker 2: who might scare the president. But you know, it's also

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Speaker 2: one of the lessons of Russian history, and I have

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Speaker 2: written about it my whole life, almost is that, you know,

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Speaker 2: the regime seems inevitable and eternal until the day it falls.

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Speaker 2: I mean, if you look at the Zaris.

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Speaker 1: You're describing bankruptcy, right, you know, first it's slowly and

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Speaker 1: then all of a sudden it's quickly.

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Speaker 2: But you look at the way the Czarist Revolution happened,

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Speaker 2: you know that was totally unexpected. If you look at

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Speaker 2: the way the Soviet Union fell months before that, nobody

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Speaker 2: thought that was going to happen, you know. And so

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Speaker 2: I'm always hesitant to make predictions about about Putins Russia,

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Speaker 2: to say that it's you know, it's going to last

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Speaker 2: forever or it's going to end next week, because the

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Speaker 2: system is very strong in that he controls all these

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Speaker 2: levers of power, He controls the media, the military, the

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Speaker 2: of me and so on. But it's also very weak

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Speaker 2: in that once his authority is questioned, it's not clear

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Speaker 2: who comes next. So there's no there's no successor there's

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Speaker 2: no succession process. There's no pollt bureau, you know there

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Speaker 2: you know, so as soon as something happens to him

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Speaker 2: or there's lacks of faith in him, then you might

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Speaker 2: get changed very quickly.

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Speaker 1: How much does he need China right now? And is

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Speaker 1: there a point where China is just like it's not

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Speaker 1: worth the cost.

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Speaker 2: He is totally dependent on China. He's dependent on China

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Speaker 2: for trade, He's dependent on China as the market for

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Speaker 2: oil and gas. He's dependent on China politically. The Chinese

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Speaker 2: have stood up for him in various international fora and

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Speaker 2: so on. The Chinese seem to be defending me, even

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Speaker 2: though I think they had They were they were surprised

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Speaker 2: by the invasion of Ukraine, and they were also I

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Speaker 2: think somewhat horrified by it. I mean, they had investments

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Speaker 2: in Ukraine and they'd students there and so on. But

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Speaker 2: they the Chinese have stuck with the Russians, and I

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Speaker 2: think will stick with them because they see the war

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Speaker 2: as a way of weakening the United States. They see

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Speaker 2: it as a tool that they can use to weaken

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Speaker 2: the perception of American power, maybe to weaken the American

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Speaker 2: European Alliance, which actually is happening pretty effectively without them.

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Speaker 1: But I was just going to say President Trump is

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Speaker 1: going on on his own trying to weaken this alliance.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and of course that's also a mistake because the again,

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Speaker 2: the way the war ends is through American European solidarity.

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Speaker 2: You know, make make Putin think it will never crack,

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Speaker 2: stick with the stick with the Ukrainians, and then you know,

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Speaker 2: wait for the moment of wait for the shift. But

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Speaker 2: the you know, this constant movement back and forth, this

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Speaker 2: attempt to do business deals and so on, all of

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Speaker 2: that gives Putin the feeling that if he just keeps going,

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Speaker 2: he'll win. And he has, as I said, as we've

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Speaker 2: just said, he has allies. Not only that, he has

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Speaker 2: North Korean allies. North Koreans have sent troops to Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: He has Iranian allies. They've sent drones to Ukraine. You know,

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Speaker 2: there is a this being the topic of the book

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Speaker 2: we discussed, I mean, this is the this is the

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Speaker 2: there is a kind of network of the autocratic world,

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Speaker 2: and you can see it really most clearly there.

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Speaker 1: I know, you have particular insight into Poland, and there

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Speaker 1: was another sort of there are always these Did Russia

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Speaker 1: do this on purpose? I don't think there's ever been

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Speaker 1: an accidental incursion into Poland during this war. I'm curious,

433
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 1: but what do they think They're accomplishing here, because it

434
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,399
Speaker 1: feels as if the last thing they should want is

435
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 1: to sort of steal the resolve of Eastern Europeans.

436
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:50,359
Speaker 2: Now, well, so you're talking about two things. I mean,

437
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 2: there was this drone incursion into Poland. And also in

438
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 2: the last few.

439
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 1: Days there blew up a train line, right a train track.

440
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 2: There was a train from Warsaw to Lublin that goes to.

441
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 1: And they assume, and I know that the polesy essentially

442
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 1: said they assume it's Russian sabotage, but they hadn't.

443
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 2: I think they know who it is already as far

444
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,160
Speaker 2: as I know. I mean, there's one little nuance which

445
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 2: is interesting, was it looks like what the perpetrators were

446
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 2: Ukrainians originally originally Ukrainian citizens who were employed and paid

447
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,879
Speaker 2: by Russia and seemed to have escaped into Beilarus. And

448
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:27,679
Speaker 2: so I think the purpose of it, the purpose of

449
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 2: this is always to you know, the Russians think a

450
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:34,199
Speaker 2: lot about creating antagonism. You know, they want there to

451
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 2: be antagonism between Warsan Kiev. You know, they want to

452
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:42,360
Speaker 2: create suspicion of Ukrainians in Poland. They may also have

453
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 2: the scary thing about the train story is that they

454
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 2: may have been trying to kill a lot of people

455
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 2: because if the bomb didn't go off the way it

456
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 2: was supposed to go off. It it had done, it

457
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 2: might have knocked a train over an embankment and hundreds

458
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 2: of at least hundreds of people might have died. So

459
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:04,119
Speaker 2: I think they're looking for some kind of spectacular scene.

460
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,199
Speaker 2: And you know, their calculation is that if we do

461
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 2: enough stuff like that will scare people, you know, will

462
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 2: frighten them into not supporting Ukraine, or will make people

463
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,360
Speaker 2: stay home. I mean, as you just observe, the Russians

464
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 2: are good at stuff like that, but they're also not

465
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 2: so good sometimes at understanding how it will affect people.

466
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 2: And I think the impact in Poland is going to

467
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 2: be the opposite. I mean, the more you bring the

468
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 2: war home to people in Poland, or in Germany where

469
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 2: it's similar there have been similar incidents, or in Scandinavia

470
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,879
Speaker 2: where there have been some drone drones who threatened the

471
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 2: Copenhagen airport, the more you do that, the more you

472
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:41,879
Speaker 2: inspire European populations to want to defend Ukraine. And I

473
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:45,920
Speaker 2: should say again, European spending is going up. It's probably

474
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 2: the main conversation in Brussels right now at EU meetings.

475
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 2: Big story in Germany, Scandinavia, Poland, the UK, not everywhere

476
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 2: in Europe, but a lot of European countries are taking

477
00:26:57,960 --> 00:26:58,680
Speaker 2: it really seriously.

478
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:02,040
Speaker 1: Is all the U US aid now to Ukraine indirect?

479
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 1: It all goes through NATO. Basically NATO buys from US

480
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,879
Speaker 1: and then it moves there. What what? How? How is

481
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 1: usaid into Ukraine working these days? What's best?

482
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 2: So I don't I don't know. There there was still

483
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 2: some aid that was purchased under the Biden administration that

484
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:20,400
Speaker 2: was still coming into Ukraine, and I don't know at

485
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 2: this exact second the status of it, whether it's all

486
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:25,879
Speaker 2: finished or whether there's some still going in. There have

487
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 2: been some big European purchases, and the US has two

488
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 2: things that nobody else has. One of them is patriot missiles,

489
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 2: which defend which can be used to defend Ukrainian cities.

490
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,679
Speaker 2: So this is this is about defending civilians from missile attack,

491
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 2: and the US just has more of them and they

492
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 2: work better, and that's something the Ukrainians are trying to buy.

493
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 2: And I think the Europeans have done deals to buy.

494
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 2: And the other thing the US has is intelligence, the

495
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 2: real time satellite intelligence, and that is beginning to be replaced,

496
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 2: but might not be totally. But as I said, the

497
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 2: bulk of money is coming from Europe to pay for

498
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 2: all this.

499
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 1: Because I'll be honest, my assumption that the most likely

500
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 1: scenario here in the regards to this which cough negotiated

501
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 1: proposal to end the war, is that Trump will use

502
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 1: if the Ukrainians say no, right, you know, Europeans sort

503
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 1: of poo poo it that that's what he'll use to

504
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:34,880
Speaker 1: basically say, well, I'm out, I'm walking away, the US

505
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:36,239
Speaker 1: walks away, What does that look like?

506
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 2: So it depends what walk away means walking away, leaving

507
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 2: in place. The intelligence cooperation is bad, but maybe not

508
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 2: that bad, you know. It then puts the Europeans as

509
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:53,040
Speaker 2: the main ally of Ukraine and we can stop having

510
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 2: this pretense that America negotiating with Russia will solve the problem.

511
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 2: Also though, you know, I think this was Trump's goal

512
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 2: before and Zelenski leave, to find an excuse to leave,

513
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 2: and actually it was. It was when Zelenski agreed as

514
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 2: only he said he would accept an immediate ceasefire if

515
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 2: there were.

516
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 1: To be won, and then Trump he knew that Trump

517
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: had to go.

518
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 2: Back, right, And it's it's actually once again, it's the

519
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 2: Russians who don't want to cease fire because the Russians

520
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:24,959
Speaker 2: still think they're going to win, you know. And so

521
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,440
Speaker 2: if Zelensky continues to repeat that that he'll accept a ceasefire,

522
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 2: maybe maybe he can ward this off.

523
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 1: Is it your suspicion, then then that probably what we

524
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 1: haven't seen the deal. But if what the Russians have

525
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 1: agreed to they know the Ukrainians will reject, and that

526
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 1: they they know one of the outcomes could be Trump

527
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 1: just walking away, which is actually they don't care well

528
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 1: that or do they want the Americans still in the loop.

529
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 2: So what the Russians were asking for before was for

530
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 2: Ukrainian territory that they haven't conquered. They were they were

531
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 2: demanding possession of some land that they have never that

532
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 2: they've never managed to uh to occupy. I remember, the

533
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 2: Russians have been fighting in Dunbass and Eastern Ukraine. They've

534
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 2: been fighting for more than ten years, and they still

535
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 2: haven't managed to conquer all the territory they claim. And

536
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 2: so and that of course is unacceptable. Zelenski can't give

537
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 2: away territory for no reason and in exchange for nothing

538
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:27,240
Speaker 2: that they were they weren't the Russians weren't offering any

539
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 2: other kind of concession. Maybe there's some other maybe there's

540
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 2: some twist to it now that that I that I

541
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 2: don't know about. But if that's still what they're saying,

542
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 2: that will you know, we want this extra land and

543
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 2: we want Ukraine to disarm. That was the other piece

544
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 2: of it. We want to we want to demilitarized Ukraine.

545
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 2: Then Ukrainians can accept that, because that's just an invitation

546
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 2: to the Russians to take territory they haven't conquered, and

547
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 2: then to take over Ukraine next year, you know, or

548
00:30:56,920 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 2: the year after and so again. Unless unless there's a

549
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 2: deal that reflects some kind of you know, some kind

550
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 2: of acceptance that Ukraine has a right to exist, Zelensky

551
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 2: can't accept it. And by the way, and I don't

552
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 2: I don't think anybody would be surprised by the in

553
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 2: other words of Putin's I if Trump says I have

554
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 2: this great deal, and you know, Ukrainians are supposed to

555
00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 2: disarm and give away their territory, I don't think that

556
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 2: even that. Most Americans would say, well, that sounds fantastic.

557
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 2: Why aren't the Ukrainians going along with it?

558
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 1: But it's your your your suspicion is is it still

559
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 1: the same as it was before? That Trump's looking for

560
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 1: a way just to walk away from this issue.

561
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 3: I mean, I think he probably authentically wants the thing

562
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 3: he got in Gaza, which is some big announcement that

563
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 3: people think is a peace plan or a piece deal,

564
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 3: which isn't really a peace deal, just as the plan

565
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 3: in Gaza wasn't a peace deal, wasn't a.

566
00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 2: Complete peace deal. He wants. You know, what Trump is

567
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 2: always interested in is winning the moment or whatever moment

568
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 2: he's in, whatever conversation he's in, he wants to emerge.

569
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 1: I would say he's always buying time to whatever it is.

570
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 1: He's always pushing off hard decisions.

571
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 2: But he also doesn't he doesn't have a long term strategy.

572
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 2: He doesn't have an idea for how Ukraine and Russia

573
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,960
Speaker 2: will co exist over the next ten years, or he

574
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 2: doesn't think about what how the rest of the world

575
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 2: would perceive his abandonment of Ukraine, what that would do

576
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 2: to other kinds of American interests. You know, he doesn't

577
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 2: think in that global way. He only thinks like, how

578
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 2: do I win? How do I how do I emerge

579
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 2: from this?

580
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 1: Well, you know, it's funny you say that, because I've

581
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 1: been thinking about the Venezuela issue and sort of how

582
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 1: we're going about this and the message that China is

583
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 1: taking from it, and the message that Russia is taking

584
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 1: from it. Yep, right, this is quote unquote our hemisphere

585
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 1: and we're dealing with what we say is a problem.

586
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 1: So they even make a law enforcement issue, right that

587
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 1: this is a this is a creating a national security

588
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 1: sort of pretext, I guess. But you know what we're

589
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 1: doing with Venezuela, what would Putin say, wouldn't he argue?

590
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 1: It's no different than what he's trying to do in Ukraine.

591
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 2: Of course, it's also almost an exact blueprint of what

592
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 2: the Chinese could do in Taiwan. I mean, it's very

593
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 2: very similar. I mean this is my I even a

594
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 2: lot of qualms about Venezuela, although I think it's you know,

595
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 2: that's a it is a very ugly regime, and I

596
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 2: know lots of people who would like it to fall.

597
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 1: Well, look, I'm a Miami. I grew up in Miami,

598
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 1: and I'm very empathetic. I got a lot of Venezuelan friends,

599
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 1: and I I if the administration we're making a democracy

600
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 1: case what they're doing, I would feel better. But the

601
00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 1: fact that they're not, and they're basically lying about the

602
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 1: situation in order to do this, You're just like, this

603
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 1: is you're going about this the wrong way for an

604
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:13,840
Speaker 1: outcome that maybe many people would like to see, but

605
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 1: this is not the time for an ends justifies the

606
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:17,320
Speaker 1: means moment.

607
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 2: No, And as you say, it sets a terrible example.

608
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 2: You know, it says we get to this country is

609
00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:27,920
Speaker 2: close to us, and so we get to do whatever

610
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:31,000
Speaker 2: we want, and we can do extra judicial murders of

611
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 2: what might be drug traffickers or might be fishermen, and

612
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,840
Speaker 2: we can park lots of boats, you know, big ships

613
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 2: around the coast, and we can threaten you know, we

614
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 2: can issue threats and we do it with impunity because

615
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:48,360
Speaker 2: it's our hemisphere. And this is exactly the argument that

616
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:51,879
Speaker 2: Putin has made about Ukraine. I mean, with nuances. It's

617
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 2: very similar to what the Chinese could start to say

618
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 2: about Taiwan, and Taiwan threatens our national security because we

619
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:04,280
Speaker 2: say so, you know, right, and it's it's really profoundly

620
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 2: undermining too, the the you know, the the idea really

621
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 2: that small countries have rights, that borders have meaning that

622
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 2: you know that there is some kind of international system

623
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 2: that people that people have respect for. I mean, it's

624
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,360
Speaker 2: been deteriorating for a long time, and you can you

625
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 2: can you can find previous American presidents who also undermined it.

626
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 2: But this is, this feels like something new, especially in

627
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 2: the context of the war in Ukraine and of China's

628
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 2: threats to.

629
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:41,759
Speaker 1: Taiwan in your book obviously you were just referring to

630
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 1: it before that there is you know that there now

631
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 1: really is a network of these autocrats. We had the

632
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:57,319
Speaker 1: visit what is Saudi Arabia? Is it an autocracy? I

633
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 1: call you know, I don't believe in any monarchies. I

634
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:03,880
Speaker 1: believe there's either benevolent dictators or malevolent dictators. And the

635
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 1: benevolent ones we call king and the malevolent ones we

636
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 1: call something else. But that's my sort of that's my spin.

637
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,920
Speaker 1: But where do you put Saudi Arabia on this? And

638
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 1: because it feels like we really and this wasn't just

639
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 1: the Trump administration, the Biden administration. I mean, I've had

640
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:25,879
Speaker 1: this conversation with Jake Sullivan everything about we'd be like, look,

641
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 1: we've got to tolerate some of this from the Saudis

642
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:30,919
Speaker 1: because we need them on our side. We don't want

643
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:34,520
Speaker 1: them on China side. What do you put Saudi Arabian?

644
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 1: What is our CosIng back up to them? Do in

645
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 1: your thinking about where autocracy is going?

646
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:47,760
Speaker 2: So Saudi Arabia is Saudi Araba like the other Golf states,

647
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 2: is a little different from the Russia, China, Iran, North

648
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:57,319
Speaker 2: Korea nexus in that, at least for the moment, their

649
00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 2: primary interest isn't undermining US, okay, and that is the

650
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 2: primary interest of Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela Bilarus.

651
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:10,239
Speaker 2: And so they they are different. They are of course

652
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 2: they're an autocracy. Autocracy and monarchy goes under the is

653
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:17,360
Speaker 2: a sub category of autocracy. They're an autocracy in that

654
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:21,640
Speaker 2: it's a state where they rule without the leader's rule,

655
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:25,919
Speaker 2: without checks and balances. There's no transparency, there's no there's

656
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 2: no real opposition, there's you know, people don't have rights

657
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 2: and they're above all. There's no rule of law, there's

658
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 2: rule by law, which means the law is with the

659
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 2: king says laws, and it can change. And at the

660
00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 2: moment he's a little bit more benevolent than he than

661
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 2: some previous Saudi leaders were, but that could change in

662
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 2: a heartbeat if he feels like it. And so it's

663
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 2: it's so, that's the kind of political system it is.

664
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,120
Speaker 2: I mean, it's been one that has been willing to

665
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:55,240
Speaker 2: cooperate with us, and that's you know, there are reasons

666
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:57,799
Speaker 2: why it's useful to talk to them. You know, they

667
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 2: they're they're they're constructive things that the Saudis can do.

668
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 2: And as I said, they don't have a either a

669
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 2: military apparatus or a you know, or a propaganda apparatus

670
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 2: that's aimed at us, which most of the other countries do.

671
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:17,760
Speaker 2: So I don't know, I don't object to American presidents

672
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 2: talking to Saudi leaders. I think what I find troublesome

673
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:27,759
Speaker 2: about Trump's relationships is, first of all, his family's enormous

674
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:31,479
Speaker 2: conflicts of interest there. You know, his sons are doing

675
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 2: deal with Saudi company building hotels.

676
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 1: A hallmark of a budding autocracy is when the family

677
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:42,920
Speaker 1: members of the leader are benefiting financially. I mean, I

678
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 1: don't look, I don't want to go down the road

679
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:46,840
Speaker 1: that we're there. I mean, I think it's the Republican

680
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 1: Party right now that's under this sort of control. It's

681
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 1: not yet spread everywhere in this country, but it's certainly

682
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:54,920
Speaker 1: the beginnings of it.

683
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 2: Oh No, it's it's a it's a hallmark and the

684
00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:01,840
Speaker 2: personalization of power. The fact that you have to offer

685
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:05,280
Speaker 2: a plane or a gold bar, as some Swiss businessman

686
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:07,959
Speaker 2: did a few days ago to the President in order

687
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 2: to work create the atmosphere for your trade deal or

688
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:12,360
Speaker 2: your negotiation.

689
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 1: I mean, let me go back to President, let me

690
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 1: go back to Cotter. They gave a plane, and now

691
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 1: they get non they get they get basically NATO like

692
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 1: security agreement from the United States, I mean, which is

693
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 1: apparently what the Saudis are now asking for. And it

694
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:34,279
Speaker 1: is amazing that we gave Cotter a deal that we

695
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:36,399
Speaker 1: had yet to give the Saudis. And if I were

696
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:39,440
Speaker 1: the Sadi's I feel kind of put off by that,

697
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 1: given given what the Saudis have meant to the United

698
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 1: States over the years versus what Cutter has and hasn't.

699
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:48,839
Speaker 2: I mean, and think, I think when when When the

700
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 2: leader of Saudi Arabia walks into the Oval office and

701
00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 2: seees Donald Trump, what does he think he thinks I

702
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:54,879
Speaker 2: own this guy?

703
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 3: You know, I'm I'm I'm.

704
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 2: Paying for the golf tournament that went on his golf course.

705
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:04,359
Speaker 2: I've given I've put a you know, a billion dollar,

706
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:07,239
Speaker 2: two billion dollar, I think investment into his son in

707
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:11,319
Speaker 2: law's company. I'm doing business with his family all over

708
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:13,920
Speaker 2: the Middle East, and who knows what else. I mean,

709
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:17,439
Speaker 2: a lot of Trump's finances, especially the crypto companies, are

710
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 2: are pretty opaque. We don't really know who's paying into

711
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 2: them and how and he and he does need something

712
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:24,680
Speaker 2: from the United States. I mean, Saudi is a country

713
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:27,040
Speaker 2: that is very wealthy. Obviously they have all this oil,

714
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:30,800
Speaker 2: but it's also very weak, doesn't have much of a military.

715
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 2: It can't really defend itself, and so you know, they're

716
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 2: in they they have a huge interest in buying off

717
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 2: the American president and getting something, and you know, getting

718
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:45,839
Speaker 2: F thirty five's or getting weapons from the insance. I mean,

719
00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:47,839
Speaker 2: the question here, and this is this is you know,

720
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 2: returning to your original point, is what do the American

721
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 2: people get out of it? Why are what do we

722
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:57,239
Speaker 2: get out of this relationship with Saudi Arabia. You know,

723
00:40:57,280 --> 00:41:00,160
Speaker 2: the you know is the when the American president.

724
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:02,279
Speaker 1: They argue stability in the Middle East? I mean, is

725
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 1: that is that the best we can offer the American public?

726
00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:07,880
Speaker 2: I mean, if that's the point, I mean, that's great,

727
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 2: and I would support that point. If the point is

728
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 2: to enrich the president's family, if that's what we're getting

729
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 2: out of it, then I then I'm more worried. So

730
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 2: there's always a question with Donald Trump, and it's exactly

731
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:23,080
Speaker 2: the same as his negotiations with the Russians. Why is

732
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:25,840
Speaker 2: he doing this? Is he doing it for personal benefit,

733
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:29,280
Speaker 2: for his family's benefit, or is it in some broader interests?

734
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 2: And I just for all the flaws of many previous

735
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:36,840
Speaker 2: American presidents, I can't think of one who negotiated abroad,

736
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 2: you know, about whom there was that question is who's

737
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:41,400
Speaker 2: who's benefiting?

738
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 1: And that's that previous president way waited to suck up

739
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 1: to the Saudi's after they left office for library friends, right,

740
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 1: Like I mean, I hate to be that cytical about it,

741
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:53,000
Speaker 1: but it was sort of there was almost like an

742
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 1: agreed upon hey don't don't don't use your contacts there

743
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 1: until after you leave to enrich yourself. I mean, I

744
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:00,920
Speaker 1: hate to be that senecal.

745
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:03,200
Speaker 2: Sure, but you did you know, even the worst I

746
00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:06,400
Speaker 2: don't know, you know, even even the Bush family who

747
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,400
Speaker 2: had oil interests. I mean, when George w or his

748
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 2: father were negotiating with the Saudis, were they thinking about

749
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 2: specific business deals that are that are being negotiated right

750
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:20,799
Speaker 2: now and that I don't think so.

751
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:22,960
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Speaker 1: Where are you today When it comes to the fight

781
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:07,360
Speaker 1: between democracy and autocracy around the world, I know it

782
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:12,040
Speaker 1: feels as if democracy is in retreats, but it's not

783
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:17,960
Speaker 1: as if autocracy is succeeding either. Right. I mean, you

784
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 1: do have a Chinese economy that is not great, that

785
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 1: youth unemployment. So you know this idea that whose system

786
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,359
Speaker 1: is more stable, whose system is better. It's not as

787
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:32,319
Speaker 1: if these autocratic systems are having a golden age themselves.

788
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:36,480
Speaker 2: I would actually describe the contest from the beginning a

789
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:39,279
Speaker 2: little differently in that, Okay, this is not so much

790
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:44,440
Speaker 2: a contest between autocracies and democracies, because there are lots

791
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:46,880
Speaker 2: of different kinds. We just talked about. The Saudis and

792
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:49,480
Speaker 2: the Russians are quite different. It's on. This is really

793
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 2: a contest between This is a war of ideas, of

794
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:59,359
Speaker 2: autocratic ideas against the ideas of liberal democracy, and that

795
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 2: contest is taking place inside every country on the planet,

796
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:06,960
Speaker 2: including ours. So it happened. I mean, most European countries,

797
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 2: even if they're formal democracies, they have autocratic political parties

798
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 2: or movements. And by the same token, a lot of

799
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:20,200
Speaker 2: dictatorships have within them, you know, dissidents or or people

800
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:22,160
Speaker 2: who would like to end.

801
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 1: With the woman who just won the Nobel Peace Prize

802
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 1: in Venezuela. Right, absolutely, she's a great excaple.

803
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, interviewed her several times. Actually, in Venezuela, the Democratic

804
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 2: opposition won an election through this extraordinary feet of organization

805
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:36,840
Speaker 2: and then proved that they want it. So, you know,

806
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 2: so this is a this is a war of ideas.

807
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:40,400
Speaker 2: You know, do we want to live in political systems

808
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:45,920
Speaker 2: where one person or party or family controls you know,

809
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:50,440
Speaker 2: the media with no checks and balances, uh, you know,

810
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:55,359
Speaker 2: decides how the legal system works, doesn't offer people rights?

811
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 2: Or do we want to live in a system where

812
00:45:57,120 --> 00:46:00,440
Speaker 2: there are rights and there are independent institutions in dependent

813
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 2: of the of the of the ruling party or the leader.

814
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,640
Speaker 2: And you know, and it does feel right now, I think,

815
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:08,760
Speaker 2: especially because of what's going on in the United States,

816
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:14,600
Speaker 2: like the democratic arguments are losing. But there's also no

817
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:18,239
Speaker 2: inevitability that you know, history doesn't work like that that

818
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:23,320
Speaker 2: you know, the you know, everything's swinging in one direction,

819
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:25,920
Speaker 2: and that's how it's going to go. You know, the

820
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:28,880
Speaker 2: fight is on, and the fight is inside our country,

821
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:33,839
Speaker 2: it's inside Russia, it's inside Ukraine. You know, the and

822
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:36,720
Speaker 2: the and the and the question is really whose arguments

823
00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:40,080
Speaker 2: are going to win? And how do we and how

824
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:41,720
Speaker 2: do we express that victory.

825
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:44,800
Speaker 1: What do you think about the role that silicon Valley

826
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:48,520
Speaker 1: is now sort of playing a sort of infusing itself

827
00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:52,000
Speaker 1: with this government in ways that we've not seen an

828
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:54,799
Speaker 1: industry do arghiabli in one hundred years, right, not since

829
00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:59,359
Speaker 1: the industrialists of the of the early twentieth century. And

830
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 1: you know, I think about this, you know, the philosophies

831
00:47:02,640 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 1: that we've heard Peter Tiele espouse. I mean, you know,

832
00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:07,440
Speaker 1: this is somebody who does not believe in liberal democracy.

833
00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:11,280
Speaker 1: He's very clear about it, right. I guess we should

834
00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 1: be happy that he's honest about it. But you know,

835
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:15,880
Speaker 1: I think Peter Peter Tiel is one of the most

836
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 1: dangerous Americans in the country with his ideas and wealth

837
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:22,960
Speaker 1: combined and the access to power that he has already purchased.

838
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:28,759
Speaker 1: What should we be concerned? I mean, I sort of

839
00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:31,080
Speaker 1: have faith in our democracy that the pitchforks are coming

840
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 1: for Silicon Valley and they don't fully I don't think

841
00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:36,959
Speaker 1: they fully see it yet, and that you know, we're

842
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:40,719
Speaker 1: going to have a Teddy Roosevelt moment here, But how

843
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 1: do you see the role they're playing in this sort

844
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:47,759
Speaker 1: of competition between democracy and hutocracy.

845
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:51,560
Speaker 2: So Silicon Valley has a kind of power that no

846
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:55,000
Speaker 2: one has had before. And this is the power to

847
00:47:57,000 --> 00:48:01,200
Speaker 2: influence I wouldn't say control, but influence and manipulate feelings

848
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:06,200
Speaker 2: and emotions and information. And they you know, they have

849
00:48:06,320 --> 00:48:09,080
Speaker 2: these tools, you know, the you know, the algorithms that.

850
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:12,759
Speaker 1: Directly at times we're talking about science fiction sometimes with them.

851
00:48:12,920 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 1: But yes, anyway, no, I mean, but but.

852
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:17,520
Speaker 2: You know, most people in America, if you're you know,

853
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:20,080
Speaker 2: if you're not someone who looks for news in other words,

854
00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:22,880
Speaker 2: you click on the New York Times website or or

855
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:25,759
Speaker 2: even the Fox News website. If you're someone who just

856
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 2: passively receives news, which I think is most people, then

857
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:33,719
Speaker 2: they decide what you see. You know, then your your

858
00:48:34,160 --> 00:48:39,040
Speaker 2: preference for one kind of washing powder or one kind

859
00:48:39,040 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 2: of shampoo might lead you to receive a political ad

860
00:48:42,760 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 2: that people who like that kind of washing powder or

861
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:49,440
Speaker 2: shampoo get, or or or a clip or you know,

862
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:53,839
Speaker 2: or somebody expounding something on Instagram. And so we haven't

863
00:48:53,880 --> 00:48:57,480
Speaker 2: never hed so to their their decisions are really shaping

864
00:48:57,560 --> 00:49:00,439
Speaker 2: what it is that people see and perceive. And that

865
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:03,400
Speaker 2: does mean that they have, you know, something that I

866
00:49:03,440 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 2: don't think anybody has had before. And actually in real autocracy,

867
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:11,480
Speaker 2: so in China, that power is controlled by the state,

868
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 2: and the state, you know, they they they own that power.

869
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:16,719
Speaker 2: And in Russia they're seeking to own that power that

870
00:49:16,800 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 2: Russians haven't. Their system is not as sophisticated as to Chinese,

871
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:21,880
Speaker 2: but they are trying to cut people off from Western

872
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:25,840
Speaker 2: Western social media. And in our country, you know, the

873
00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:28,080
Speaker 2: idea was originally that this was a power that would

874
00:49:28,080 --> 00:49:31,320
Speaker 2: be given to private companies and it would be therefore benign,

875
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 2: and it would be divided between several groups, and it

876
00:49:34,920 --> 00:49:37,400
Speaker 2: wouldn't you know, we would we would take care of

877
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 2: it that way. And I think we're failing. I mean,

878
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:42,160
Speaker 2: and it's important that you mentioned Teddy Roosevelt because what

879
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:45,000
Speaker 2: did he do He broke up monopolies or he spoke

880
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:48,319
Speaker 2: about they were called trusts them And we are at

881
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:52,279
Speaker 2: a point where the there is time to ask whether

882
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:58,080
Speaker 2: these companies have too much power and whether they're truly

883
00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:01,840
Speaker 2: patriotic companies. Do they want the he health of American democracy?

884
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:05,239
Speaker 2: Are they dedicated to making sure that we had better

885
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:08,279
Speaker 2: debates and better consensus and better information. I don't think so.

886
00:50:08,840 --> 00:50:13,040
Speaker 1: I had an interesting conversation with a recently retired general

887
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:16,719
Speaker 1: who sort of had a lot of insight in the

888
00:50:16,760 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 1: first Trump term, and he expressed a concern. He says,

889
00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 1: you know, with the development of nuclear power, the government

890
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:30,880
Speaker 1: essentially was infused in the process in many ways. The

891
00:50:30,880 --> 00:50:33,760
Speaker 1: Manhattan Project, right, it was a creation of the government.

892
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:37,960
Speaker 1: The development of the Internet, you know, came out of

893
00:50:37,960 --> 00:50:42,000
Speaker 1: the Defense Department. He said, we're making this massive technological

894
00:50:42,080 --> 00:50:47,160
Speaker 1: shift in our society where we have completely outsourced it

895
00:50:47,200 --> 00:50:49,520
Speaker 1: to the private sector. That is not the way any

896
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:53,840
Speaker 1: of the other major technological shifts that altered the course

897
00:50:54,120 --> 00:50:58,839
Speaker 1: of this country on technology has ever happened. And that

898
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:03,800
Speaker 1: spress like that is the he thought that was such

899
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:08,719
Speaker 1: a higher risk, and we haven't fully appreciated concentrating all

900
00:51:08,719 --> 00:51:10,680
Speaker 1: that power into this private entity.

901
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:14,759
Speaker 2: The Atlantic had a good article recently about NASA and

902
00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:19,799
Speaker 2: the difference between NASA and SpaceX. And NASA, which was our,

903
00:51:20,280 --> 00:51:24,960
Speaker 2: you know, premier space institution in the United States, was

904
00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:27,160
Speaker 2: people want to work for it because they were public

905
00:51:27,200 --> 00:51:29,200
Speaker 2: servants and they were doing something on behalf of the

906
00:51:29,280 --> 00:51:32,760
Speaker 2: United States of America. And SpaceX is a private company

907
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:36,560
Speaker 2: owned by Elon Musk, and people work in it to

908
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 2: make money or there and the primary goal is not

909
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:46,000
Speaker 2: the public interest. The primary goal is to earn money

910
00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:47,440
Speaker 2: for shareholders, and that is different.

911
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:52,799
Speaker 1: What is you know, how much of a how much

912
00:51:52,800 --> 00:51:56,400
Speaker 1: of a danger do you think we are in domestically

913
00:51:57,800 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 1: because of this kind of concentrated power. Looks on the outside,

914
00:52:02,040 --> 00:52:04,960
Speaker 1: like Silicon Valley decided they made a bet and they said, well,

915
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:09,880
Speaker 1: Trump's more malleable than the Democrats on this one, so

916
00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:11,799
Speaker 1: we're going to go all in here, you know. And

917
00:52:11,840 --> 00:52:14,560
Speaker 1: it was the crypto crowd plus the AI crowd and

918
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:18,760
Speaker 1: they and they've pretty much gotten carte blanche from this administration.

919
00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:22,920
Speaker 1: That seems to be step one of a scary development.

920
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:26,440
Speaker 2: Look, I think what they're looking for is not to

921
00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:29,479
Speaker 2: be regulated, you know, they're looking for they don't want

922
00:52:29,520 --> 00:52:33,759
Speaker 2: any any anything cramping their power, any any trust law,

923
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:38,560
Speaker 2: any other kind of law, anything that would question the trust.

924
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:42,279
Speaker 1: Their development of social media really really worked out well

925
00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:45,480
Speaker 1: without regulation. So sure, let's let them do this.

926
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:50,440
Speaker 2: No No, But they know there's backlash, They've heard it,

927
00:52:50,640 --> 00:52:54,240
Speaker 2: and they're what they're now doing is trying to stave

928
00:52:54,360 --> 00:52:56,960
Speaker 2: off the consequences. And it's pretty pernicious. So it's not

929
00:52:57,040 --> 00:53:00,400
Speaker 2: just here. Uh, they're also working pretty hard in Europe

930
00:53:00,440 --> 00:53:03,200
Speaker 2: to make sure that they aren't regulated by the European Union,

931
00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:06,480
Speaker 2: which is probably the only institution left on the planet

932
00:53:06,520 --> 00:53:10,600
Speaker 2: that could regulate them. And they're even to the extent

933
00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:15,680
Speaker 2: of Musk supporting anti European political parties in Germany and elsewhere.

934
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:20,239
Speaker 2: So they're very conscious of this, the coming backlash, and

935
00:53:20,320 --> 00:53:25,080
Speaker 2: they're preparing very hard to prevent anything from hampering their power.

936
00:53:25,120 --> 00:53:26,920
Speaker 2: And I think it's something that would be very useful

937
00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:28,719
Speaker 2: for more Americans to be aware of.

938
00:53:29,480 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, I think I actually have I do believe

939
00:53:32,239 --> 00:53:34,279
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty eight presidential election is going to be

940
00:53:34,360 --> 00:53:37,000
Speaker 1: more centered on this, you know, be or of AI

941
00:53:37,360 --> 00:53:40,000
Speaker 1: job displacement, all of that is going to sort of

942
00:53:40,040 --> 00:53:42,719
Speaker 1: concentrate I think the conversation a little bit on this,

943
00:53:42,800 --> 00:53:45,200
Speaker 1: but let me get you out of here. Actually some

944
00:53:45,719 --> 00:53:49,440
Speaker 1: on Europe, which really sort of would go back the

945
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:57,040
Speaker 1: unintended consequence of Donald Trump's quasi isolationism. I say quasi

946
00:53:57,080 --> 00:54:00,680
Speaker 1: because it's not really it's more transactionalism. But let's say

947
00:54:01,080 --> 00:54:06,359
Speaker 1: the the perception of the pullback, this feels like it's

948
00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:09,239
Speaker 1: made Europe stronger than ever and that the EU is

949
00:54:09,280 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 1: now a thing, and that native that there is that Europe.

950
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:14,920
Speaker 1: You know that that it was this has been a

951
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:17,800
Speaker 1: wake up call to Europe and that there is a

952
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:20,239
Speaker 1: as you said, look, Europe may be able to just

953
00:54:20,680 --> 00:54:23,720
Speaker 1: keep supporting Ukraine regardless of what the United States decides.

954
00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:27,080
Speaker 1: The strengthening of Europe. Can it hold or are we

955
00:54:27,160 --> 00:54:31,799
Speaker 1: going to see cracks because of various you know, domestic

956
00:54:32,120 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 1: you know, right wing movements in Germany, populist movements in

957
00:54:36,080 --> 00:54:37,120
Speaker 1: the UK, et cetera.

958
00:54:38,239 --> 00:54:42,280
Speaker 2: So Europe is under an enormous amount of pressure from

959
00:54:42,560 --> 00:54:48,200
Speaker 2: Russia through not just the war but sabotage propaganda campaigns.

960
00:54:48,600 --> 00:54:52,200
Speaker 2: It's also now under pressure from US, as we've just discussed.

961
00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:56,520
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, from from Elon Musk who wants

962
00:54:56,560 --> 00:55:00,600
Speaker 2: to fund uh anti European parties to some extent from

963
00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:02,680
Speaker 2: the Trump administration. I mean, we'll see where that goes.

964
00:55:03,680 --> 00:55:07,280
Speaker 2: And it's also you know, it's a because it's a

965
00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:10,399
Speaker 2: it's a confederation. It's not a federation like we are.

966
00:55:10,840 --> 00:55:13,920
Speaker 2: It's it's has you know, there has kind of permanent

967
00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:17,160
Speaker 2: problems with getting everybody on board that don't ever really

968
00:55:17,560 --> 00:55:21,160
Speaker 2: go away. Having said that, though, there's something in what

969
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:25,040
Speaker 2: you're saying in that if you're an investor from anywhere

970
00:55:25,040 --> 00:55:27,200
Speaker 2: in the world. Actually, if you're from you know, South

971
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:30,560
Speaker 2: Korea or France or the United States, and you're looking

972
00:55:30,600 --> 00:55:32,480
Speaker 2: around the world and you're looking for a place that's

973
00:55:32,520 --> 00:55:37,960
Speaker 2: stable and safe and has predictable laws and predictable terrif

974
00:55:38,040 --> 00:55:42,560
Speaker 2: rates and you know, respects contracts. I mean, maybe you

975
00:55:42,600 --> 00:55:46,400
Speaker 2: would now start to choose Europe. Europe has a you know,

976
00:55:46,480 --> 00:55:50,040
Speaker 2: Europe has a rule of law culture that is very

977
00:55:50,080 --> 00:55:52,319
Speaker 2: strong and very deep and goes right to the heart

978
00:55:52,400 --> 00:55:54,880
Speaker 2: of what the European Union is and what most modern

979
00:55:54,920 --> 00:55:58,960
Speaker 2: European states are, and you might think this is this

980
00:55:59,000 --> 00:56:01,799
Speaker 2: is the place to go. I mean, in Europe did

981
00:56:02,320 --> 00:56:07,160
Speaker 2: become you know, they were so sure of their relationship

982
00:56:07,160 --> 00:56:09,279
Speaker 2: with America, and they were so sure that America would

983
00:56:09,280 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 2: defend them, and they were so sure that America was

984
00:56:11,080 --> 00:56:12,800
Speaker 2: a friend and that shared their values.

985
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:15,440
Speaker 1: By the way, they were so sure. Weren't you so sure?

986
00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:16,719
Speaker 1: Were it not too?

987
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:19,080
Speaker 2: I mean, actually I'm to European passport, so I should

988
00:56:19,239 --> 00:56:22,680
Speaker 2: should say me too. So, you know, but they let

989
00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:24,920
Speaker 2: a lot of things slide. They didn't develop their own

990
00:56:24,960 --> 00:56:28,239
Speaker 2: tech industry because you know, they were fine with what

991
00:56:28,280 --> 00:56:31,840
Speaker 2: the Americans were doing. They were you know, they have

992
00:56:31,920 --> 00:56:34,520
Speaker 2: a defense industry, but they didn't care as much about it,

993
00:56:34,560 --> 00:56:36,880
Speaker 2: and a lot of that has now shifted. If you

994
00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:39,680
Speaker 2: go to any kind of confidence about anything in Europe,

995
00:56:39,760 --> 00:56:41,839
Speaker 2: now it'll be about how do we build our own

996
00:56:41,880 --> 00:56:44,600
Speaker 2: tech industry, how do we build a new weapons industry?

997
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:48,000
Speaker 2: And so you're about to see that transformation, I think,

998
00:56:48,160 --> 00:56:50,000
Speaker 2: going across every European country.

999
00:56:50,440 --> 00:56:52,800
Speaker 1: All right, let me get you to answer the question

1000
00:56:52,960 --> 00:56:55,040
Speaker 1: I get and I'm sure you get it all the time.

1001
00:56:55,600 --> 00:56:57,759
Speaker 1: What's your level of concern about the state of the

1002
00:56:57,760 --> 00:56:58,879
Speaker 1: American democracy?

1003
00:57:00,440 --> 00:57:04,080
Speaker 2: In my case, it's very high. I'm afraid it's very high.

1004
00:57:04,160 --> 00:57:07,879
Speaker 2: I mean it's not you know, I don't think any

1005
00:57:08,000 --> 00:57:10,680
Speaker 2: story is ever over and nothing is ever too late.

1006
00:57:11,719 --> 00:57:16,240
Speaker 2: But I do think that the combination of the use

1007
00:57:16,320 --> 00:57:19,400
Speaker 2: the way ICE is being used as a pilm paramilitary force,

1008
00:57:20,240 --> 00:57:26,920
Speaker 2: the attacks on you know, the president's constant attacks on journalism,

1009
00:57:27,280 --> 00:57:30,600
Speaker 2: the attacks on research and science and universities, the attempts

1010
00:57:30,600 --> 00:57:34,440
Speaker 2: to capture culture, the firing of the civil service, the

1011
00:57:34,480 --> 00:57:38,200
Speaker 2: attempts to destroy an independent civil service, you know, all

1012
00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:41,439
Speaker 2: those things packaged together. And this is for me, where

1013
00:57:41,440 --> 00:57:44,680
Speaker 2: I've written about these kinds of situations before, this is

1014
00:57:45,240 --> 00:57:48,640
Speaker 2: this looks to me like an assault on a democratic

1015
00:57:48,640 --> 00:57:51,920
Speaker 2: political system. And it also looks to me like it

1016
00:57:51,960 --> 00:57:55,560
Speaker 2: could be their way of preparing for at least to

1017
00:57:55,600 --> 00:57:58,680
Speaker 2: try to shape the midterms and in ways we haven't

1018
00:57:58,720 --> 00:57:59,240
Speaker 2: seen before.

1019
00:57:59,280 --> 00:58:03,360
Speaker 1: And I it's Hungary the closest sort of corollary here,

1020
00:58:03,360 --> 00:58:04,400
Speaker 1: like what happened in Hungary.

1021
00:58:04,440 --> 00:58:07,520
Speaker 2: I mean, actually in Hungary, the Hungry you know, the

1022
00:58:07,880 --> 00:58:10,880
Speaker 2: primetership of Hungary didn't move this fast, and he didn't

1023
00:58:11,880 --> 00:58:15,840
Speaker 2: assault institutions so quickly, and he didn't you know, the

1024
00:58:15,880 --> 00:58:18,760
Speaker 2: speed of change that we've seen here. I think it's

1025
00:58:18,800 --> 00:58:22,480
Speaker 2: pretty unprecedented. And there's some aspects of it that are unprecedented,

1026
00:58:22,640 --> 00:58:25,200
Speaker 2: like for example, the attack on science, on the scientific

1027
00:58:25,240 --> 00:58:29,080
Speaker 2: research system and on the vaccine research. I mean, there's

1028
00:58:29,200 --> 00:58:34,080
Speaker 2: there's no other The Chinese don't attack their own research institutions,

1029
00:58:34,200 --> 00:58:37,040
Speaker 2: you know, they value them. Neither do the Russians. I

1030
00:58:37,080 --> 00:58:39,160
Speaker 2: mean maybe they politicize them in some ways. It's a

1031
00:58:39,160 --> 00:58:42,360
Speaker 2: different subject. But there's some pieces of it that seem

1032
00:58:42,480 --> 00:58:45,520
Speaker 2: pretty radical to me and don't even have an echo

1033
00:58:46,080 --> 00:58:48,200
Speaker 2: in recent in our world history.

1034
00:58:49,400 --> 00:58:52,600
Speaker 1: Well, on that note, with Thanksgiving a week away, there's

1035
00:58:52,720 --> 00:58:54,160
Speaker 1: there's something to give thanks.

1036
00:58:53,920 --> 00:58:56,880
Speaker 2: For well, and you can discuss it with your with

1037
00:58:56,920 --> 00:59:00,360
Speaker 2: your relatives and cheer up the conversation. But let me

1038
00:59:00,560 --> 00:59:03,000
Speaker 2: let me end on that note. Actually, because again the

1039
00:59:03,040 --> 00:59:05,600
Speaker 2: reason I talk about this stuff and I'm sure this

1040
00:59:05,680 --> 00:59:07,800
Speaker 2: is true of you as well, because I want people

1041
00:59:07,880 --> 00:59:10,400
Speaker 2: to be aware of it and understand where it could go.

1042
00:59:10,600 --> 00:59:13,040
Speaker 2: That doesn't mean it has to go that way, but

1043
00:59:13,120 --> 00:59:16,040
Speaker 2: the more people are aware, the more prepared they are

1044
00:59:16,160 --> 00:59:18,200
Speaker 2: to do something about.

1045
00:59:18,440 --> 00:59:20,840
Speaker 1: And the more people that are aware, I mean, that's

1046
00:59:20,880 --> 00:59:24,840
Speaker 1: when I have faith in our in the democracy. Eventually,

1047
00:59:25,120 --> 00:59:27,880
Speaker 1: you know, I'm like Churchill, right, We're going to exhaust

1048
00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:30,640
Speaker 1: all these other and let's just hope the system is

1049
00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:34,680
Speaker 1: still there for us to express our concern when the

1050
00:59:34,720 --> 00:59:37,920
Speaker 1: time I think of all it comes. That's where I

1051
00:59:38,240 --> 00:59:41,000
Speaker 1: where I get my optimism too. And apple bomb this

1052
00:59:41,680 --> 00:59:42,439
Speaker 1: appreciate the time.

1053
00:59:43,040 --> 00:59:47,320
Speaker 2: Thank you,