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Speaker 1: It's the most wonderful time. What's up the generation? Welcome

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Speaker 1: to the Big Bets on Campus podcast. This is the

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Speaker 1: College Football Bowl Betting Preview, Part five. I'm stucky in

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Speaker 1: joining me as always my fellow BBOC co host Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 1: Today we will cover twelve bowls. We'll touch on the

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Speaker 1: two we touched on in Part four, the first two

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday very briefly, then get into the next ten,

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Speaker 1: including all four college football playoff quarter final games. Colin, I,

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Speaker 1: then you're coming to us live from Arizona. How goes it?

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Speaker 2: Everything's great here in Arizona. I'm at the Fiesta Bowl,

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Speaker 2: just got my credentials. Got to see what Penn State

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Speaker 2: and Boise State is gonna wearing. More importantly, I have

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Speaker 2: finally handicapped all four of these playoff games. I am

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Speaker 2: so excited to talk about everything that I encovered.

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Speaker 3: Well, I perfectly is don't know.

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Speaker 4: We can finally play the game.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well, without further ado, let's dive right in.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with the two pmso Tuesday we briefly touched on.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure if we have much of an.

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Speaker 5: Update the relya Quest Bowl.

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Speaker 1: RelA Quest Bowl Michigan Alabama albuma thirteen and a half

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Speaker 1: point favorite total forty three and a half New Eastern

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Speaker 1: ESPN in Tampa burns steakhouts. By the way, weather looks nice.

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Speaker 1: The story here is the opt outs looks like everyone

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Speaker 1: of note on offense is going to go for Alabama.

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Speaker 1: They're a bit thin at wide receiver, but the top

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Speaker 1: two are playing. Michigan. Opt outs are just anyone important

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Speaker 1: on their defense is out there, running backs, their tight end,

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Speaker 1: their top receiver, their left tackle. Alabama's weakest in the secondary.

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Speaker 1: They have injuries opt outs. How's Michigan going to attack that?

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure. I think Alabama is motivated. I think

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Speaker 1: they have better depth. We saw that with a game

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Speaker 1: that we both got wrong with Arkansas. There's gonna be

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Speaker 1: some other guys that Alabama has they can turn to.

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Speaker 1: I think this is an Alabama route. I like Alabama

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Speaker 1: anything under two touchdowns. Any quick thoughts there, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I'm just gonna take a different angle. I'm gonna go

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Speaker 2: Alabama in the first quarter because they are the third

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Speaker 2: best in scoring differential all season. The script has always

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Speaker 2: worked out, not like Georgia, who we're gonna talk about later,

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Speaker 2: but Alabama first scored for me.

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Speaker 6: I think it's already in the.

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Speaker 1: Amp YEP like that as well. The Sun Bowl Tony

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Speaker 1: the Tiger Sun Bowl Louisville Washington, Washington two point underdog,

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Speaker 1: total forty nine and a half, two pm Eastern on

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Speaker 1: CBS in al Paso, Texas. Ellen j for tex mex

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Speaker 1: That's what Aaron Jones says. He says that's his favorite

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Speaker 1: spot for what it's worth, been around for almost a

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Speaker 1: hundred years. How about the ACC all win ten against

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Speaker 1: the spread, one and nine straight up, the only win

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Speaker 1: coming against the practice squad of Washington State. Can Louisville

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Speaker 1: buck that trend? Washington hasn't won a game away from

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Speaker 1: home all year. The Washington offensive line still not much

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Speaker 1: portal news from Washington. Their left guard still should play.

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Speaker 1: They're left tackles out, but they get their original left

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Speaker 1: tackle back Louisville opt outs quarterback Tyler Shuck. They're top

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Speaker 1: two receivers defensive end Nationals Lottie that's big. Their top corner,

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Speaker 1: Quincy Riley, that's big. I do think louis will be

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Speaker 1: able to run it with Isaac Brown and Duke Watson

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Speaker 1: because you can run on Washington I don't really think

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to throw it. That's Washington strength.

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Speaker 1: You're gonna have a backup quarterback here, Harrison Vailey, who

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Speaker 1: I don't think is any good. I mean, the ACC

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Speaker 1: is bad. I think it's Washington or nothing here.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, the ACC is bad.

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Speaker 2: But Desmond Williams and quarterback for Washington is not bad.

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Speaker 2: In him and Joanah Coleman playing in tandem doing zone read,

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Speaker 2: I think is the avenue to just dominate them. Louisville's

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Speaker 2: their opt outs a defensive end with the Ashton Gill

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Speaker 2: Loot Fiz fifty nine, pressure is not going to be there.

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Speaker 2: I just I don't see an answer for what Washington

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Speaker 2: wants to do. And everybody has a site idea that

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Speaker 2: there's a certain kind of team on offense. Well, I

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Speaker 2: think it's changed over the last three weeks.

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Speaker 6: Does Williams. So I like Washington and I like the under.

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Speaker 1: Yeah my wins start a quarterback. He more mobile guy,

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Speaker 1: which I think is important with this Washington offensive line.

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Speaker 1: He's had full Bowl practices now. We saw him take

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Speaker 1: over late late late in the season, so I think

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Speaker 1: he'll be more prepared this time around. And look sometimes

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Speaker 1: you just find out late in the year that certain

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Speaker 1: conferences are not good. Looks like the ACC fits that

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Speaker 1: bill this year the cheese at Citrus Bowl.

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Speaker 5: The Citrus Bowl.

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Speaker 1: This game we played Tuesday, December thirty first in Orlando, Florida,

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Speaker 1: between Illinois and South Carolina. South counta ten point favorite,

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Speaker 1: total forty nine and a half three pm Eastern on ESPN.

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Speaker 1: I already mentioned this go to stagger In obviously for

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Speaker 1: the bar Kaya hits. Your Filipino fix beamer has been

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Speaker 1: very good in these spots. Great and Bowls team seems motivated.

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Speaker 1: So does Illinois for what it's worth, and illinois last

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Speaker 1: Bowl win came in twenty eleven. I think this is

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Speaker 1: going to be a pretty good Bowl game as far

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Speaker 1: as who we get playing. Where I think this this

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Speaker 1: game gets decided is in the trenches, where I think

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Speaker 1: South Carolina will have a big advantage, especially on the

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Speaker 1: defensive side of the ball. They will be missing Kyle Knard,

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Speaker 1: their star defensive end, and they will be missing Raheem Sanders.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be Juju McDowell oscar Adaway splitting the carries

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Speaker 1: a running back that there is a bit of a

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Speaker 1: drop off there. Other than that, it looks like everyone

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Speaker 1: else is gonna play for South Carolina Illinois. Looks like

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Speaker 1: everyone's gonna play except for Pat Bryant. That's important. He

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Speaker 1: is such a critical piece to this offense. With him

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Speaker 1: and Franklin on the outside, they're tough to defend. Now

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Speaker 1: it's really just Franklin, they're not really I don't think

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Speaker 1: they're gonna have a ton of success running it on

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Speaker 1: South Carolina. And you can't really throw in South Carolina anyway.

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Speaker 1: And now you don't have Bryant. The offensive line is

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Speaker 1: very questionable. And you look at Luke Altmeyer five interceptions

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Speaker 1: but eighteen turnover worthy plays. He's been lucky, there's turnovers,

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Speaker 1: there's mistakes coming. And look at what he did against

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Speaker 1: the top defenses this year Penn State sixteen to twenty six,

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Speaker 1: one eighty five, Michigan nine of nineteen eighty, Oregon seventeen

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Speaker 1: to thirty five, one sixty nine, Minnesota twenty thirty three,

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Speaker 1: two twenty six overall fifty four percent completion percentage, one

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Speaker 1: hundred and sixty yards on average, three touchdowns, three interceptions,

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Speaker 1: three big time throws, nine turnover worthy plays. I like

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Speaker 1: the Illinois secondary. There's some talent back there with the Scotts.

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Speaker 1: They're solid against the pass, they don't give up explosives.

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Speaker 1: But I think with Sellers' legs and South Carolina's defense

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Speaker 1: dominating the trenches, I like the Cocks.

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Speaker 2: I haven't made a decision whether I won South Carolina

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Speaker 2: or the team total over.

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Speaker 6: And you say team total over.

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Speaker 2: Their defense is excellent, yeah, and Illinois's offense is prone

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Speaker 2: to allowing other teams to have pick six's scoop and scores.

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Speaker 2: Let's look at Illinois one hundred and ninth and havoc

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Speaker 2: allowed ninety ninth and pass blocking. South Carolina is going

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Speaker 2: to be all over this Illinois offense and that can

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Speaker 2: translate into some easy points. And I don't care what's

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Speaker 2: going on who Luke Haultmeyer is throwing to. This is

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Speaker 2: still a South Carolina team that was top thirty five

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Speaker 2: and creating a contested catch.

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Speaker 6: We know what that they can do in the defensive trench.

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Speaker 2: And I haven't even mentioned a guy who we're gonna

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Speaker 2: be in love with next year, Leonora's Sellers. I just

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Speaker 2: don't see an avenue with Illinois being one hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty eighth in defensive rushing success. Rate Rocket Sanders isn't there.

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Speaker 2: I don't think it's a problem. Leonora's Sellers is a

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Speaker 2: series force on the ground of the RPO game, and

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Speaker 2: that is bad news for Illinois. So I'm kind of

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Speaker 2: leaning team total over South Carolina or spread.

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Speaker 6: It'll come in before the game, all right.

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Speaker 1: Moving on to the Kinders Texas Bowl.

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Speaker 5: The Texas Bowl.

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Speaker 1: Kinders, what is that is that? I think that's like

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Speaker 1: just a barbecue seasoning Kinders Texas Bowl between LSU and Baylor.

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Speaker 1: Baylor clipped from underdog to favorite. The out three and

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Speaker 1: a half point favorite total fifty nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: This game's three thirty Eastern ESPN on New Year's Even, Houston,

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Speaker 1: Texas at NRG Stadium. Great diverse food city Houston. By

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Speaker 1: the way, pitt Room Breakfast, get the breakfast, Barbecue, Tacos,

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Speaker 1: barb Blue Dorn, Josephine's Cada Rabata actually really good as well.

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Speaker 1: A couple options there. Why is this line flipped? Well,

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Speaker 1: Baylor looks like they're going to be close to full strength.

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Speaker 1: Everyone's playing. This is the dave A Randa revenge game. Also,

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Speaker 1: it's in Texas. Baylor might also get a couple defenders

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Speaker 1: back healthy. They were seen in practice, cornerback, outside linebackers.

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Speaker 1: They don't really have anyone that impactful in the portal.

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Speaker 1: And then you look at LSU. I mean, you have

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Speaker 1: starting wide receiver CJ. Daniels committed to Miami. They're starting

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Speaker 1: safety Sage Ryan, he's the green dot committed to Ole

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Speaker 1: miss None of these guys are going to play a

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Speaker 1: couple death pieces at wide receiver and tight end. And

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Speaker 1: then you look at who opted out Your left tackle,

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Speaker 1: Will Campbell, your right tackle, Emery Jones, your tight end

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Speaker 1: Mason Taylor, your wide receiver one Kyan Lacy, and you're

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Speaker 1: starting safety Major Burns. You want to both of your

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Speaker 1: starting safeties. So they've had and their offensive line was

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Speaker 1: the strength of their team all season long. And I

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Speaker 1: don't think Garrett Dellinger, their left guard, is going to

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Speaker 1: play either. So what does that mean? Well, in practice recently,

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Speaker 1: here was the starting offensive line for LSU. Left tackle

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Speaker 1: Tyree Adams. He had eleven snaps of left tackle this year,

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Speaker 1: seventy eight total. Left guard Paul Mulinga, he was the

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Speaker 1: regro start at the end of the year. Center DJ Chester,

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Speaker 1: he's their normal starter. Right guard Bob Bortland forty six

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Speaker 1: snaps on the aar and then they're going to kick

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Speaker 1: Miles Fraser out from right guard to right tackle. The

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Speaker 1: wide receivers, they're still okay with Anderson Hilton and Zavion Thomas,

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Speaker 1: but super super murky from a death perspective. If anyone

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Speaker 1: gets hurt, it's bad. There's only one tight scholarship tight

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Speaker 1: end on the roster in Green. The offensive line is

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Speaker 1: taking a big step back, and we know the defense

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Speaker 1: already wasn't very good. This Baylor team, I think all year, well,

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Speaker 1: I should say the second half of the year has

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Speaker 1: been extremely underrated, flying under the radar, arguably the best

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Speaker 1: team in the Big Twelve, right up there with Arizona State.

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Speaker 1: They get that Hail mayor they don't get that Hail

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Speaker 1: Mary against Colorado. They're playing in the Big Twelve championship game,

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Speaker 1: and who knows, maybe they're in the College Foball Playoff.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I really liked what I've seen from this

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Speaker 1: Baylor team on both sides of the ball late in

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Speaker 1: the year. Found a running game that kind of balanced

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Speaker 1: the offense with Washington. This just screams failed to me.

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Speaker 1: They seem all in, not sure how invested LSU is

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Speaker 1: judging from all the opt outs, all the guys still

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Speaker 1: be missing. I still think. I mean, look, Bail's rundy

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Speaker 1: is good. They're vulnerable through the air. I do think

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Speaker 1: nus Meyer is going to play. We'll have some success

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Speaker 1: for the air. They're gonna put up some point here,

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Speaker 1: but I think Baylor can match them and some I

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Speaker 1: think this is a Baylor game. Any thoughts.

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Speaker 2: I think this was what one of the first bets

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Speaker 2: that we made in bolseason when these matchups came out,

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Speaker 2: we knew what LSU was probably going to be missing

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Speaker 2: from a depth perspective, with opt outs, with transfers with

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's this is the roster LSU US either

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Speaker 2: are just some teams that are always have team guys

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Speaker 2: in the portal.

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Speaker 6: And you were right.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Baylor is thirteenth in defensive rushing success rate.

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Speaker 2: So this game all comes down onto nuss's arm, which

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Speaker 2: you know, if you look at some of the coverage concepts,

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Speaker 2: I think they'll have success in at least keeping NUS

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Speaker 2: mid fbs in success rate. Here you go to the

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Speaker 2: offensive side of the ball. I've been very impressed with

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Speaker 2: this Baylor offense. You know, seventeenth and passing success rate

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Speaker 2: the thirteenth and hav a cloud. They don't make a

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Speaker 2: lot of mistakes. David Randa is going to be ultimately

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Speaker 2: motivated here. I don't really want to go down that

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Speaker 2: narrative other than how many points do we put up

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Speaker 2: on our former team. So again, it's one of those

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Speaker 2: things where the head coach is motivated to never take

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Speaker 2: a knee. So you know, Baylor is a side that

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Speaker 2: was put it along Goo number is not there. I

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Speaker 2: would you know, how far do we go six on Baylor?

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Speaker 2: I think at this point you're just looking at the

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Speaker 2: team total over. But I would wait that number has

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Speaker 2: come down. There's a key of fifty nine and a

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Speaker 2: half in the market. I think that could continue to

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Speaker 2: dip with some of these LSU names that may.

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Speaker 6: Be called out. That's going to affect the total to

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Speaker 6: come down.

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Speaker 2: That's going to give you a chance to get an

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Speaker 2: extra point or two value in a Baylor team total over.

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Speaker 6: So I would wait on.

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Speaker 1: That before we get to the Kajo cloff. But does

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Speaker 1: knock the rest of these ball games out quickly because

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of uncertainty in many of these games. Thursday,

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Speaker 1: January second, Ole miss Verus Duke Duke plus seventeen total

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Speaker 1: fifty one and a half seven thirty Eastern ESPN on Thursday,

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Speaker 1: January second, Jacksonville, Florida.

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Speaker 5: The Gator Bowl.

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Speaker 1: I'm really not into drinks.

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Speaker 6: Okay, I'm in nightmares.

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Speaker 1: We're not trying to go to the Gator Bowl.

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Speaker 6: We're trying to go to the super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: And to do that, you got to really try to

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Speaker 1: end somebody's drink. So get into that. Twit's Beestro by

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Speaker 1: the way, I get reservations. Junko King chan Cho King

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Speaker 1: to Ecuadorian food. I went to Ecuador, fell in love

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Speaker 1: with their food. Don't know if they have a local papa,

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Speaker 1: but that's a place to check out. Here's the thing.

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Speaker 1: Ole miss out to a seventeen point favorite. It looks

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Speaker 1: like most of their guys are gonna play like they

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Speaker 1: they have a their starting right tackle, couple defensive backs

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Speaker 1: maybe not. I don't think Trey Harris is gonna play,

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Speaker 1: but their defensive line, Trey Amos, Jackson Dard, looks like

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Speaker 1: they're all gonna play Duke. They're starting running back Star Thomas,

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Speaker 1: He's in the portal, and then obviously Malik Murphy their quarterback,

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Speaker 1: which means Henry Bellen is going to start. Other than that,

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Speaker 1: looks like pretty full rosters here. Does all Miss care right?

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Speaker 1: Disappointed end of the year? Is this the disappointed SEC spot?

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Speaker 1: But it's Duke's backup quarterback. The offense already had its limitations.

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Speaker 1: I can't see them doing much against Ole Miss defense.

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Speaker 1: Can the Duke defensive line keep them in this game?

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Speaker 1: Ole Miss best under team in the country this year?

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Speaker 1: Is this another under? Seven thirty Eastern January two? What

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Speaker 1: do you say?

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Speaker 2: Well, I think, you know, Duke being one of its

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Speaker 2: I wanted to play on this ballseason, Old Miss being

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Speaker 2: one of the teams that I wanted to fade. I

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Speaker 2: immediately grabbed a number out there in the market on

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Speaker 2: Duke and that did not turn out well.

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Speaker 6: When Malik Murphy hit the portal.

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Speaker 2: Didn't know that was gonna happen, right, So I think,

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Speaker 2: really we should talk about what do you do if

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Speaker 2: you have this bad number.

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Speaker 6: I'm sitting on it.

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Speaker 2: I'm not completely convinced that Old Miss is going to

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Speaker 2: have all of their players there, And if they do,

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Speaker 2: how much are they going to play? We saw, you know,

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Speaker 2: Shador Sanders play all the way until the last possession.

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Speaker 2: We saw cam Ward sit out in the second half.

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Speaker 2: I feel Old Miss has enough players that are at

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Speaker 2: that kind of level that maybe they play a quarter,

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Speaker 2: maybe they play a snap, or maybe they play the

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Speaker 2: full game. But for me, if I'm sitting around with

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Speaker 2: a bad ticket on Duke right now, which is not

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Speaker 2: good without mlike Murphy, this team is one hundred and

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Speaker 2: thirtieth in quality drives and that's when they're at full

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Speaker 2: strength on offense.

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Speaker 6: I'm still going to sit.

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Speaker 2: If you can buy out at fourteen, if maybe there's

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Speaker 2: some opt outs, maybe there's somebody missing it Old Miss.

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Speaker 6: You can buy out live during the game.

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Speaker 2: Possibly I would suggest that, but otherwise I just I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna sit with the number and remind myself that I

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Speaker 2: cannot believe the Old Miss team is the one that

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Speaker 2: said that they're going to play and Duke is the

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Speaker 2: one the lost er quarterback. It's just it's just a

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Speaker 2: learning lesson for the future, because I was really shocked

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Speaker 2: by this. But there's no way I think you can

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Speaker 2: play Ole Miss minus seventeen, not not until you're about

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Speaker 2: ninety minutes of work kick and everybody is on the field,

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Speaker 2: and if you start seeing missing pieces, and you see that,

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Speaker 2: and you see that Old Miss line start to drop.

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Speaker 2: The under is the play more than it is saying

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go grab Duke.

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Speaker 1: The under is the play. I think Duke will try

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Speaker 1: to ugly this up. I do think their defense will

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Speaker 1: show up. Many Dieze have a good game plan. Their

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Speaker 1: defensive line I think can win up front against the

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Speaker 1: ole Miss offensive line. So yeah, I mean ole Miss

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Speaker 1: an under team all year. I think it continues in

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Speaker 1: the ballgame. Friday, January third SERF Pro First Responders Bowl

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Speaker 1: in Dallas, Texas at gerald Ford Stadium.

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Speaker 5: The First Responderball.

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Speaker 1: Want some good homemade pasta, go to Lucia, North Texas

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Speaker 1: First Texas State, Texas State thirteen and a half point favorite,

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Speaker 1: total sixteen and a half, four pm Eastern on ESPN

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Speaker 1: this Friday. This game's a mess North Texas. They're gonna

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Speaker 1: be what they're They're gonna go down to their backup quarterback.

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Speaker 1: They're also missing, You're all portal guys, starting wide receiver,

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Speaker 1: starting tight end, starting center, there, left guard, another backup

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Speaker 1: wide receiver, a couple other death pieces. They're gonna be

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Speaker 1: turning to the true freshman Drew Mesta Maker who came

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Speaker 1: in for Morris as the backup this season. And they're

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Speaker 1: gonna have They're gonna have a true freshman at tight

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Speaker 1: end starting, a true freshman at one of the wide

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Speaker 1: receiver spots, and a true freshman that left tackle Texas

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Speaker 1: State starting. They're starting running back, starting right tackle, starting

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Speaker 1: corner who all committed to Power for schools all in

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Speaker 1: the portal. Expect them to be out. They're starting both

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Speaker 1: of their starting defensive tackles, actually all three, all three

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Speaker 1: of their snapcount leaders up front are out. And it

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Speaker 1: just came out overnight that Jordan McLeod is probably not

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Speaker 1: gonna play, gonna see limited snaps. This was the exact quote.

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Speaker 6: Was told.

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Speaker 1: Jordan McCloud is still practicing with the team, but it

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Speaker 1: is unlikely to play significant snaps in the upcoming game

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Speaker 1: against North Texas in the first respond as well as

345
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Speaker 1: preparing the showcases skills at the East West Shrine game

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Speaker 1: as he looks to play at the next level. Who's

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Speaker 1: I mean Brad Jackson, who actually freshman I think has

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Speaker 1: some potential. I like what I saw on some limited

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Speaker 1: snaps from him. This total has come down, this line

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Speaker 1: has gone out I don't know what to make of

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Speaker 1: this game. There's probably gonna be some more news between

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Speaker 1: now and January third. This is a game I probably

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Speaker 1: just wait and see.

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Speaker 2: On any thoughts, Well, yeah, the total is dipping, I

355
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Speaker 2: think for a lot of the reasons that you mentioned,

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Speaker 2: So I think going on the under is the way

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Speaker 2: that I would go. I would project this at sixty

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Speaker 2: four at full strength rosters. But you know, can we

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Speaker 2: remember the fact that North Texas has had a couple

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Speaker 2: of offensive duds throughout the season. I go go back

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Speaker 2: to the Army game, which was one not really sure

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Speaker 2: how that happened, But I think the under is the

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Speaker 2: play here. There's just so much fluidity going on with

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Speaker 2: the rosters, and you know, there are periods of these

365
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Speaker 2: offenses not being able to get things going, or Texas

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Speaker 2: has never been able to run the ball. Texas State

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Speaker 2: is seventy first in offensive finishing drives. I think the

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Speaker 2: under is the only play here.

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Speaker 1: I personally can't get there on the under now that

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Speaker 1: it's come down. This was my favorite over of all

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Speaker 1: the balls. If these offense is about full strength, it's

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Speaker 1: just unfortunate. Probably going to get back up quarterbacks, man,

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Speaker 1: I mean just picture of these two teams at full strength.

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Speaker 1: This is that points bonanza written all over it. But

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Speaker 1: I can't get to the under. But I'm also not

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Speaker 1: playing the over. This might be a rare pass for

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Speaker 1: me in ball season, but we'll see what more news

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Speaker 1: comes out. Keep an eye on the app. By the way,

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Speaker 1: agree we haven't added any do agree? We have Alabama

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Speaker 1: first quarter penning. We're two and two in the Agree

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Speaker 1: in the balls so far head to head g Tech

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Speaker 1: for you? Diego, Diego, Diego. And how about I state?

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Speaker 1: That was sweet Mario didn't learn his lesson kicking up

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Speaker 1: three to go up six in the fourth quarter. It

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Speaker 1: already cost your team a playoff spot. And now you

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Speaker 1: know Pop Tart Bowl, you're not even gonna learn. Unbelievable.

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Speaker 1: Moving on to the other game Friday, January third, Duke's

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Speaker 1: Mail Bowl.

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Speaker 5: The Duke's Male Bowl. Yum Mother News, how good MEALCS

390
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Speaker 5: passes everych.

391
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Speaker 2: Real mayonnaise, always creamy, always fresh.

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't serve.

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Speaker 3: My family anything less.

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Speaker 1: Virginia Tech and Minnesota Minnesota seven and a half point

395
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Speaker 1: favorite are total forty two and a half seven thirty

396
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Speaker 1: Eastern on ESPN and Charlotte North Carolina, go to Lai's

397
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Speaker 1: Sandwiches for a bond me and then now Junta Peruvian,

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Speaker 1: my favorite food in the world. I don't like the

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Speaker 1: acc narrative. You got it, we have to bring it

400
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:01,879
Speaker 1: up again. U. That's David amss and Fleck has been

401
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Speaker 1: great in Bowl games five and er at Minnesota. I

402
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Speaker 1: expect him to get a mayonnaise bath at the end

403
00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 1: of this Minnesota starting right tackle Sigmoth. Ohio State looks

404
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Speaker 1: like everyone else is going to play, although I don't

405
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Speaker 1: think their offensive tackle Ursery or their cornerback Justin Waally,

406
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Speaker 1: they might be out. Wait till we see till we

407
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Speaker 1: get up a final depth chart. Look at Virginia Tech.

408
00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 1: This team is decimated. I mean you're talking starting left tackle,

409
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Speaker 1: starting center, starting corner, starting safety, both linebackers, a running back,

410
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Speaker 1: then their opt out. Those are all the guys in

411
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Speaker 1: the portal I don't expect to play. There are opt outs.

412
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Speaker 1: Defensive end APR is the best pass rusher, defensive tackle Peebles,

413
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Speaker 1: both of their wide receivers Felton and Lane. There are others,

414
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Speaker 1: starting cornerback Dorian Strong, and recently in a practice, they're

415
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:56,120
Speaker 1: starting running back Touton wasn't spotted. Their right guard, Kayden Moore,

416
00:20:56,200 --> 00:21:01,240
Speaker 1: wasn't spotted. Their defensive tackle, other safety all weren't spotted.

417
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Speaker 1: I think they could be down fourteen or fifteen starters

418
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Speaker 1: in total. Doesn't look like Drones is gonna play at quarterback.

419
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Speaker 1: It's either gonna be Collin Slee or Pop Watson. Sean

420
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:16,160
Speaker 1: Quinn will serve as the DC for votech. This team

421
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:19,760
Speaker 1: is a mess. Fleck knows how to row the boat

422
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Speaker 1: get his team ready for bowl games. I like Minnesota.

423
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Speaker 1: I think they win easily.

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Speaker 2: I should have acc stapled on me, you know, and

425
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Speaker 2: walk around with it since Georgia Tech lost that game.

426
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Speaker 2: But these are just two teams that are going in

427
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 2: completely different directions. Virginia Tech lost three of their final

428
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:36,879
Speaker 2: four games. I mean, they're struggling to keep their roster healthy.

429
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Speaker 2: The entire season quarterback depth chart had two quarterbacks going in.

430
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Speaker 2: I mean both Slee and Kyrienn Drones were hurt. I mean,

431
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:46,640
Speaker 2: I'm not sure who's playing for this Virginia Tech team.

432
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 2: And on the other side, you're right, Minnesota's record in

433
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,680
Speaker 2: bowls under row the boat has always been there. I

434
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:53,639
Speaker 2: would have made this game four. Let's say it was

435
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:55,440
Speaker 2: full strength in the middle of the season. On a neutral,

436
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:57,679
Speaker 2: I would have made this game Minnesota minus four. So

437
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,280
Speaker 2: now your question is does this offense have enough use

438
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:03,520
Speaker 2: to cover a spread that's over a touchdown. Not really

439
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:05,919
Speaker 2: great at running the ball, not really great at ne

440
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,399
Speaker 2: yards one hundred and fourteenth. But Max Brosmer has been

441
00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 2: the difference and I think in the second half he

442
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:12,679
Speaker 2: really caught fire. His numbers were much better in the

443
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:14,640
Speaker 2: second half than it was versus maybe the first three

444
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 2: games of the season.

445
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:17,920
Speaker 6: So I think Minnesota is the only way to play.

446
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 2: And if you're not happy with that minus seven and

447
00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:22,399
Speaker 2: a half, play PJ Fleck in the first half.

448
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,160
Speaker 6: That's when they'll have it most motivated.

449
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 2: So if you don't not coverable with it, I would

450
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 2: suggest Minnesota first half.

451
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 1: I ad Minnesota. Anything single digits is fine. Also good

452
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 1: money line parlay piece. All right, let's move on to Saturday,

453
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 1: January fourth, the final non playout ball, the Bahamas Ball.

454
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 1: Doesn't feel right that the Bahamas Bowl is not in

455
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 1: mid December between Liberty and Buffalo. Buffalo two and a

456
00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 1: half point favorite. Here they were an underdog on open

457
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:48,160
Speaker 1: total fifteen and a half. This game is eleven am

458
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 1: on ESPN.

459
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 5: Two The Bahamas Ball.

460
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 1: Disrespect to the Bahamas Bowl, and.

461
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:55,119
Speaker 3: Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

462
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:55,919
Speaker 1: I'm Keith Jackson.

463
00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:58,399
Speaker 3: I'll be calling the play at today's ball game. We

464
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,399
Speaker 3: have an afternoon of what football is all about.

465
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 1: It.

466
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 3: It's the kind of a week that you could really

467
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:05,959
Speaker 3: get yourself a set of white knuckles if you were

468
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 3: a partisan to either one of these teams, because the fever,

469
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 3: if you will, is so fervent it's almost impossible to measure.

470
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:17,160
Speaker 1: This game. We played in Nasal, the New Duff. Check

471
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 1: out that place. I think the doff is add like

472
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 1: their national dessert. It's like a pastry and then just

473
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 1: find plenty of conk and eat all of it. Check

474
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 1: the wind. We're still you know, a few days out.

475
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 1: Wind always can be Let me do a quick check here.

476
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 1: Wind in this bowl game can always be a factor.

477
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:43,160
Speaker 1: Fifteen miles an hour. Yeah, it's all burned on the fringe.

478
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 1: So just make sure you check the poecast. Here's the

479
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 1: thing with this game. Liberty in the Portal are starting

480
00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 1: quarterback Hayton Salter. That's huge. He signed with Colorado. They

481
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:55,719
Speaker 1: have three starting offensive linemen. Their left guard right tackle,

482
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 1: left tackle. All in the portal. Don't think any of

483
00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:01,920
Speaker 1: the are going to play their starting defense, both their

484
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 1: starting defensive linemen. I think they're going to be out

485
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,760
Speaker 1: former app State transfer Ryan Berger, he's going to be

486
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:11,680
Speaker 1: starting at quarterback. Jamie Chadwell said players in the portal

487
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: won't play in the bowl game, and he does expect

488
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 1: more opt outs Buffalo. Their kicker went the portal. He

489
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,120
Speaker 1: committed to Texas Tech. He's still going to play. The

490
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 1: depth charte for Buffalo is the same for the Bowl

491
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:29,679
Speaker 1: as it was in the regular season finale. How refreshing

492
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 1: don't have the track much with Buffalo. Looks like everyone's

493
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 1: gonna play. Buffalo is terrible, one of the worst teams,

494
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 1: if not the worst that made a Bowl. But Liberty,

495
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 1: I mean they're decimated number one. I expect more guys

496
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 1: to be out and do they care? This team is

497
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,919
Speaker 1: had higher expectations. They wanted to go to the collegewall playoff,

498
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 1: and by the way, they weren't very good all year.

499
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 1: Here's a me telling quote Jamie Chadwell on playing in

500
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 1: the Bahamas Ball I told our team, if you want

501
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 1: to complain about it, it's because you lost three times.

502
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 1: It's your fault, it's my fault. We're not going to

503
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 1: complain about anything. We're excited about going. That doesn't sound

504
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 1: like they're really excited I Buffalo anything under a field goal?

505
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, can you believe that Pete Limbo and Kenny Dillingham

506
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 2: have the same perspective on if you get into the portal,

507
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,200
Speaker 2: you can still play for me and Jamie Chadwell over

508
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,199
Speaker 2: there with the Flames and Jerry Folwell or like, if

509
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 2: you get in the portal, forget it, you have nothing

510
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:41,359
Speaker 2: to do with our program. It has a major effect

511
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:44,680
Speaker 2: on this ball. And you know there were already advantages here,

512
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 2: especially for Buffalo. Their saving grace here was the ground

513
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,639
Speaker 2: explosives a top twenty five rank in EPA on the

514
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:53,640
Speaker 2: season with al J. Henderson and the zone read run concept,

515
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 2: and the Flames have struggled with inside zone read all year,

516
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 2: allowing an explosive play rate on sixteen percent attempts and

517
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:02,880
Speaker 2: their success was well below fifty percent and defending inside zones.

518
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 2: So there's just advantages from a roster perspective, there's advantage

519
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 2: from an x's and o's perspective, and I think that's

520
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:09,200
Speaker 2: going to play out here in this bowl, and I

521
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 2: would keep playing it in two and a half.

522
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:14,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, any other three from me, Buffalo is good. All right,

523
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:18,200
Speaker 1: let's move on to the big games, the college football

524
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 1: playoff quarter finals. We will start with the Fiesta Wall.

525
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 1: But before we dive into that, I want to shout

526
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 1: out long time broadcast of Tom Bredeman, who called for

527
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 1: a collegeball playoff eighteen years ago this week during the

528
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 1: legendary two thousand and seven Fiesta Ball between Boise State

529
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:39,920
Speaker 1: and Oklahoma the Statue of Liberty game. Here's that audio, Fellas.

530
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 7: You know what everybody across the country that's watching right

531
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 7: now is saying, it's effort like this, guts like this,

532
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 7: which screams for a playoff in Division one A football.

533
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 7: Why not get Boise State, the shot at Ohio State,

534
00:26:55,800 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 7: the shot at Florida, This game tonight will for They're

535
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 7: the cries of the underdogs of the world wonning a

536
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 7: national championship playoff format.

537
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 1: So we got everyone complaining just because there are blowouts.

538
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 1: I mean, there's been blowouts in the semies for like

539
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:17,919
Speaker 1: ten years. It used to be so much worse. The

540
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 1: good thing is per Brett McMurphy and its sources it

541
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 1: looks like the committee is going to consider not giving

542
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 1: automatic buys next year, which would fix the integrity of

543
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:31,959
Speaker 1: the bracket and I think make for a better overall

544
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 1: college football. Cluff doesn't mean that these teams are the

545
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 1: byes this week can't win, but I just think in general,

546
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 1: you would have a better bracket over the long run

547
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:44,360
Speaker 1: if you don't give the automatic buys.

548
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 4: A If that doesn't whet your appetite, you're watching the

549
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 4: wrong channel.

550
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 1: So let's get to the Fiesta.

551
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 5: Bowl, the Fiesta Bowl, the.

552
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:59,640
Speaker 1: RBO Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, Arizona, where Colin is right now.

553
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 1: New Year's eve'salone playoff game on New Year's Eve, seven

554
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 1: thirty eastern on ESPN, Penn State and eleven and a

555
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:09,679
Speaker 1: half point favorite over Boise State total fifty three and

556
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 1: a half. If you're in Glendale, but what you arek

557
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 1: on A Touch of Europe Cafe is a good place

558
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 1: to check out. It's a Polish place. I'll never forget

559
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 1: the perogis I had. I wish I remember the place

560
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 1: in New York City, like ten fifteen years ago it

561
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 1: was you had Polish menu. I don't even know if

562
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 1: it's still around, but a good spot. Have you had

563
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:32,640
Speaker 1: any have you gone anywhere you want to mention?

564
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, after today's events, we're gonna go to Chicken and Pickle.

565
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 2: I will leave it out there. Everybody Google search it.

566
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 2: There's like pickleball courts, there's ice skating rinks. It's the

567
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 2: biggest bar I've ever seen in my life. It's like

568
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 2: a It's like a mile long warehouse of the coolest

569
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 2: bar you've ever seen, with everything from a two year

570
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 2: old to an eighteen year old to do while adults

571
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 2: can drink and watch sports.

572
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 6: So Chicken and Pickle check it out.

573
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 1: All right, let's break into this game. Look, at this

574
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 1: point in this season, lines are pretty efficient. We know

575
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 1: these teams are. And it's not like the other Bowl

576
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 1: games where if you get information you can kind of

577
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 1: figure out who's try to figure out who's motivated. There

578
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 1: are some opportunities to be had a lot more efficient

579
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 1: in these games where you know everyone's going to play. However,

580
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 1: this is the game I show the most value on

581
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 1: from a pure numbers perspective. I make Penn State a

582
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 1: fourteen point favorite, so I certainly lean the favorite here.

583
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 1: This is all going to come down to what can

584
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 1: Ashton Gentee do amazing year, almost nineteen hundred yards after contact,

585
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 1: and he should be fresh and healthy extended break. Boysey

586
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 1: State should also be healthy overall. They had the tube

587
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 1: and should be back. They had injuries along their offensive

588
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 1: line all season long, and so they should come in

589
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 1: as healthy as they've been all year. But remember how

590
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 1: dominant this Penn State offense looked on turf against Oregon.

591
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 1: They're going to get to do that again. The Boise

592
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 1: State defense, what can they do here? Well? How many

593
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 1: tackles for loss and sacks? Can to get at the

594
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 1: second most sacks in the country. But Penn State doesn't

595
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 1: give up many. Boise State, They're going to sit in

596
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 1: a lot of quarters you don't want to, but they're

597
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 1: going to give up some explosive plays. Their secondary is

598
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 1: kind of weak. Now you could say the weakness of

599
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 1: Penn State is their wide receivers and their offense isn't

600
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 1: overly explosive, so maybe that works in their favor. But

601
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 1: you can attack Boise over the middle of the field,

602
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 1: which I think Aller can do. I think it sets

603
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 1: up for a big day for Warren. I don't know

604
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 1: if you're going to get into some of the run concepts,

605
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 1: but Boisese d is dominant against outside zone. I mean,

606
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 1: I'm number one in the country. But you know, just

607
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 1: when you line up man concepts hat on a hat,

608
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 1: they are very vulnerable, just like power rushing, which I

609
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 1: think Penn State can do here to set up the

610
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 1: pass on the other side of the ball. The Penn

611
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 1: State run defense, they don't really give up explosives. That's

612
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:09,880
Speaker 1: huge against gent They're gonna get some negative plays here.

613
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 1: Mattix Mattson he has been good, but he also has

614
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 1: been very lucky. I mean, but he's got twenty two touchdowns,

615
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 1: three interceptions, but nine big time throws, sixteen turnover worthy plays.

616
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 1: They throw a play action a lot. So again, how

617
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 1: much can genty do? Does that set up the plash

618
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 1: and do they maybe try to throw more on early

619
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 1: downs because if he has to throw on known passing downs,

620
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 1: he's not been good and he's not been good under pressure.

621
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 1: One big time throw, eight turnover worth he plays and

622
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 1: that Penn State pass rush and known passing downs is

623
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 1: gonna get pressure. We'll see how well Casey, he was

624
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 1: a really good left tackle, can do on. Abdu Carter

625
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 1: is one of the best defensive players in the country.

626
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 1: Penn State. I expect they're gonna be a ton of

627
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 1: single high load the box. Let's focus all our efforts

628
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 1: on slowing down Gent. I mean, Penn State under Franklin

629
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:07,640
Speaker 1: usually good as a favorite. I'm afraid of Gents, but

630
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 1: I see too many advantages for Penn State. I actually

631
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 1: like the favorite here. What do you say?

632
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:13,719
Speaker 6: I make it thirteen.

633
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 2: So I agree with you on the number that I

634
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 2: think it is a little bit short, but I think

635
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 2: there is a play on this game. And I'll just

636
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 2: be completely transparent. My largest dollar wager is on this game,

637
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 2: and so let's talk about it. Let's talk about how

638
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 2: I got to that. You know, Boise State's going to

639
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 2: run the ball on first down. They are twelve in

640
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 2: the nation rush rate on first down, They're gonna hit

641
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 2: gent fifty seven percent of snaps go to the run.

642
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 2: And by the way, center Mason Randolph returned after missing

643
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 2: like ten games. He was hurt in the Georgia Southern game.

644
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 2: Their center. Since he has returned in the last two games,

645
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 2: Gent four hundred and thirty yards two tds.

646
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 6: They run a lot of inside zoned.

647
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 2: They're about mid FBS eight percent power sixty eight percent

648
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 2: sixusssiorrate with that. So when Genty is just simply handed

649
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 2: the ball off and the line is doing man blocking

650
00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 2: and they're running power over the gaps, that is when

651
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 2: Genty has been doing his work. When you look at

652
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 2: the Penn State d run concepts, they are solid against

653
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 2: outside zone fifty seven percent. They only allow a big

654
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 2: play on one of every ten attempts and Penn State's

655
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 2: tackling per PFF is about fiftieth and broken tackles allowed

656
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 2: for thirty six. So I see Ashton Genty getting through

657
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 2: to the line and then creating four or five yards

658
00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 2: on his own with people hanging off of him, and

659
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 2: people are going to point to the Brishard Smith and

660
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 2: like what Penn State did against them and the average

661
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 2: two point eight yards. Completely different run concept. That was

662
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 2: inside zone. This is outside zone where I think Boise

663
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 2: is better suited to do that. And then you know,

664
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 2: you look at you look at Oregon, and the reason

665
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 2: I look at Oregon against Penn State in the Big

666
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 2: Ten Championship because they run outside zone. They average four

667
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 2: point four yards per play and they had a sixty

668
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 2: four percent success rate running that outside zone against the

669
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 2: Penn State defense, that's exactly what Boise State does. And

670
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 2: you know Jordan James created four miss tackles on twenty attempts.

671
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 2: Noah Whinnington created four miss tackles on fifteen attempts. He

672
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 2: had two explosives. And you look at Orgon, they're Lyneyard,

673
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 2: they're twelfth, right, So I think there's an avenue for

674
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:06,719
Speaker 2: Penn State for Ashington to get through. There have some

675
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 2: guys hanging on them and create those five yards because

676
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 2: if they get into passing downs, Mannix Matson is in

677
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 2: deep shit right, forty first and on target this season,

678
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:18,360
Speaker 2: going up against a Penn State defense, it's seventeenth and

679
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 2: contested catch rate. Mannix has been destroyed in known passing

680
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:26,800
Speaker 2: downs with pressure, one big time throw, eight turnover worthy

681
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 2: plays on the season. It is bad news Bears. But

682
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:32,479
Speaker 2: Boise is going to be able to move the ball.

683
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 2: They are going to get into scoring position. They run

684
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 2: the same run concept so Oregon did, and Oregon was

685
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:40,800
Speaker 2: in scoring position all day long. They just have to

686
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,280
Speaker 2: stay in standard downs. I think they're gonna get their points.

687
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:45,840
Speaker 2: You go to the other side of the ball, completely

688
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:50,359
Speaker 2: different story. I see zero resistance coming for the Penn

689
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 2: State offense lots of outside zone coming in with k

690
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 2: Tron Allen, with Nicholas Singleton, both of them should absolutely

691
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 2: dominate a Boise State defense's thirty first and defensive rushing

692
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 2: success rate. And that comes against the strength of schedule

693
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 2: of seventy eight that includes a lot of Mountain West teams. Right,

694
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 2: what is Penn State going to do on the ground.

695
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 2: It's not going to look good and they cannot defend

696
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:14,240
Speaker 2: man or power concepts. And you know what codal Nicky

697
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 2: is going to throw that into And codal Nicky has

698
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 2: been great about making this offense go fast, slowing this

699
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:21,560
Speaker 2: offense down. Do we think Drew Aller is going to

700
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 2: get pressure here? Absolutely?

701
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:23,839
Speaker 6: Nine.

702
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 2: Boise is seventy ninth in pass rush And I said

703
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 2: this on the last pot, and I'm gonna keep on saying.

704
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 2: When Penn State wins one hundred and twenty five dropbacks

705
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 2: for Drew Aller this season with pressure, zero turnover worthy plays,

706
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:36,920
Speaker 2: he's ready for the NFL. If he can increase his

707
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 2: release time, He's ready for the NFL. Boise is eightieth

708
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 2: and passpa allowed. And get this, you think Aler's gonna

709
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 2: have a clean window to throw to Boise's one hundred

710
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:47,759
Speaker 2: and fifteenth and contested catch ray. But I'm not even

711
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:49,839
Speaker 2: done about what the worst part of the Boise off

712
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:53,320
Speaker 2: defense is Eric Schnander, who I kind of bag on

713
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 2: every ESTOPI has. Central Florida, Nebraska always has tackling issues.

714
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 2: Boise right now is second a last and PFF grading and.

715
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 1: Tackling that's problematic.

716
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 6: Get the last and broken plus mistackle rate and so

717
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 6: here's the deal. I don't see Duraler getting pressure.

718
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:15,880
Speaker 2: He doesn't make mistakes when he does when they run

719
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 2: the ball with Singleton and Allen, there is no resistance

720
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:19,880
Speaker 2: to what they want to run on the ground, and

721
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:21,840
Speaker 2: even if there is, met at the line of scrimmag

722
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 2: this is the second worst tackling team in the nation.

723
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:26,839
Speaker 2: The play in the app came in over fifty two.

724
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 2: I made it very clear I'd play this up to

725
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 2: fifty five. I'm gonna make it more clear while you

726
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 2: and I are podcasting about what a day and a

727
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 2: half before the game, I think fifty five and a

728
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 2: half is good all the way up to fifty nine.

729
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 2: I actually project this game at sixty two. I can't

730
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:42,880
Speaker 2: play any props on Penn State Stuck because guess what,

731
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 2: it's all codl Nicki's decision. Maybe he just wants to

732
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:48,279
Speaker 2: go ground with Singleton and Allen. Maybe he wants to

733
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:50,839
Speaker 2: use Tyler Warren. Maybe he wants to hide a few

734
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 2: things before the next round of the playoff. I can't

735
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 2: get props out of Penn State. I just know there

736
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 2: is zero resistance here and I think Ashon Genti helps

737
00:36:58,520 --> 00:36:59,320
Speaker 2: out getting some points.

738
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't mind the over, but yeah, I think

739
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 1: this is I think this is eventually a Penn State

740
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:09,160
Speaker 1: And the only thing that worries me about the over.

741
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:14,279
Speaker 1: I'm not sure the pace will be there. And if if,

742
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 1: like Penn State decides to go run heavy and you know,

743
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 1: Boise State's probably gonna lean on genty like, the clock

744
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 1: could be moving throughout and then it's just gonna come

745
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:27,400
Speaker 1: down to can these teams turn red zone trips into touchdowns?

746
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 1: But would I trust Penn State's defense to get more

747
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 1: stops in the red zone. That's part of the reason

748
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:32,919
Speaker 1: I like I do like Penn State.

749
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:35,319
Speaker 2: Do you think Franklin and kotal Nikki and Allen are

750
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 2: thinking about the next round against the Orange Bowl against

751
00:37:37,560 --> 00:37:39,360
Speaker 2: the winner of Notre Dame Georgia and thinking that they

752
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:41,480
Speaker 2: want to show something here that they won't show in

753
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:43,239
Speaker 2: the Orange Bowl. So that's been a part of my

754
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 2: thinking too. And do they run it up and show

755
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 2: something that they'll never show again. That's that is James

756
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 2: Franklin ball. In my opinion, you're gonna play a G

757
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:54,279
Speaker 2: five team with a spread this big. I'm gonna show

758
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:55,839
Speaker 2: you a bunch of crap in a playbook that I'm

759
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:57,320
Speaker 2: not going to run against Notre Dame or Georgia.

760
00:37:57,360 --> 00:37:59,080
Speaker 6: So that's that's also in the back of my mind.

761
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:03,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, that could be the case. I just worry about

762
00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 1: the pace. That's it like if because I do think

763
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 1: Penn State power run concepts. Boys State's dominant against outside zone.

764
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:12,480
Speaker 1: So I think you're gonna get a lot more just

765
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 1: power run. It's gonna they're gonna stay out of the chains.

766
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:17,400
Speaker 1: It's gonna set up stuff to warrant. I think this

767
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 1: might be. It is tough with coodal Nikki and it's

768
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 1: tough to know that with the props, it's tough to

769
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:25,879
Speaker 1: know who's.

770
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 2: Getting plenty if he gets twenty targets or five that

771
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:31,000
Speaker 2: you never know with Tyler Warren right.

772
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:33,839
Speaker 1: Well, and then Allen and Singleton. Who has split there

773
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 1: and who they're throwing to, Uh, makes it tough. I

774
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 1: would tend to this is I would tend to lean

775
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:42,799
Speaker 1: to overs on. This is an over Warren game. But yeah,

776
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:46,000
Speaker 1: it's tough with Cotal Nikki, but I like Penn State here.

777
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:50,399
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to Wednesday, New Year's Day.

778
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:52,319
Speaker 1: And by the way, I would be fitting at Penn

779
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 1: State cover to end the year of the Chalk. I'm

780
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:59,279
Speaker 1: looking forward to twenty twenty five when you can get

781
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:02,240
Speaker 1: back to more normal times and have some exciting national

782
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,279
Speaker 1: champions That's where I came up with your The Chalk.

783
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 1: By the way, UH is just everyone that is expected

784
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 1: to win and every sport one in twenty twenty four.

785
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to Actually, we're gonna start with

786
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:18,360
Speaker 1: the Peach Bowl on New Years State. But before we

787
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:19,880
Speaker 1: get to the Peach Bawl. This past Saturday night, our

788
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 1: producer Matt put money on the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl,

789
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 1: then drank a case of beer and ended up calling

790
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 1: the voicemail line at midnight from a garage in Indiana.

791
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:33,680
Speaker 1: I think he had the Colorado State team total over enjoy.

792
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 8: So I love Chuck Martin, the coach of Miami of Ohio.

793
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 8: I think he's one of the best coaches. For's the

794
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:45,759
Speaker 8: game day coaches in the entire nation. Jay Norvell, it's

795
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:48,880
Speaker 8: one of my least favorite coaches. I think he's just

796
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:52,360
Speaker 8: got at Colorado State. And of course, in a meaningless

797
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 8: bold game, they are pitted against one another. And I

798
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:59,279
Speaker 8: participate in a lot of group parlays where everyone picks

799
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:04,120
Speaker 8: a leag and someone who will remain nameless picked Colorado

800
00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 8: State for the end of the big parlay, and I thought,

801
00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 8: you know what is is it a hedging out like

802
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:12,879
Speaker 8: a coward. I'll just take Colorado State team total. That way,

803
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 8: Truck Martin can still beat our ass and and everything

804
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 8: will be fine. We can all win. So I take

805
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 8: Colorado to score twenty one or more points during our valve.

806
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 8: Surely you can score three touchdowns against the Mac team,

807
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:32,719
Speaker 8: regardless of how wide the chasm is between you and

808
00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:36,240
Speaker 8: their coach. They go down. They have a seven minute

809
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:38,960
Speaker 8: opening drive to kick a field goal. Great start. Here

810
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:42,759
Speaker 8: are the rest of their drives through the first three

811
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:48,279
Speaker 8: quarters after that, three plays fumble, three and out, one play, interception,

812
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 8: turnover on downs, turnover, on downs, punt, one play in

813
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:56,479
Speaker 8: the half ends and in the third quarter two plays

814
00:40:56,560 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 8: in the fumble, turnover on downs, a touchdown in an interception.

815
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:05,120
Speaker 8: Jen Orville, you don't stand for anything. You don't have

816
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 8: any idea what the fuck you're doing. Chuck Martin with

817
00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 8: a bunch of slobs from Ohio is pulling your pants

818
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:15,400
Speaker 8: down in this bowl game. Then oh my god, they

819
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 8: score a couple backdroor touchdowns. Maybe I can sneak this in.

820
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 8: They get the ball back with two minutes and sixteen

821
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:24,400
Speaker 8: seconds left, they get seventeen points. I need a touchdown.

822
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 8: And if Jay said, I, you know what, we're getting

823
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:29,279
Speaker 8: the kicked out of us. I give up, you know,

824
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:31,680
Speaker 8: kneel it out. That's fine. I actually have a lot

825
00:41:31,719 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 8: of respect for that because the game was over. Now

826
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 8: he's going to go for it, all right, so you

827
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:38,880
Speaker 8: can go for it. Then, Jay, he's going down the field.

828
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,799
Speaker 8: He converts the third down, he converts the fourth down.

829
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:45,279
Speaker 8: One of his players appears to get seriously injured. He's

830
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:48,239
Speaker 8: got a couple of timeouts, he uses one. He gets

831
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 8: a thirty yard pass to the like eighteen. They throw

832
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 8: the world stupidest screen pass with like thirteen seconds to go,

833
00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:58,440
Speaker 8: and he doesn't call the time out. He goes, you

834
00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 8: know what, now that we're in the face red zone,

835
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:03,359
Speaker 8: I will wave the white flag and I give up.

836
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:07,359
Speaker 8: And the worst crime, fe what the worst crime is, Jay,

837
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 8: is that you're a fing loser. And you know how

838
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:15,080
Speaker 8: I know that, Jay, because I'm the biggest loser in

839
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 8: the fucking world. And having to bet on another loser,

840
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:22,759
Speaker 8: you know what, that breaks my heart. I feel like

841
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 8: I'm I feel like I'm Michael Corleone kissing you and

842
00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 8: then having you shot on a boat in Lake Tahoe.

843
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:34,479
Speaker 8: Because you broke my heart. I will never ever, ever,

844
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:37,480
Speaker 8: ever ever bet on you to intervel you.

845
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:42,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was one game we whift on in Coloriado State.

846
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,480
Speaker 1: Credit to Minamha they look, I mean Colorae State was

847
00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:50,359
Speaker 1: so sloppy, but mya Ohio clear right side there.

848
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:53,319
Speaker 2: And I don't know if Jane Norville is gonna hug

849
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:54,800
Speaker 2: me anymore like he's hugged me two years in a

850
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:56,000
Speaker 2: row Mountain West Media days.

851
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 6: That might be over it.

852
00:42:57,880 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 1: I don't know if I'd give him a hug after

853
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:03,719
Speaker 1: after that performance. All right, let's start Wednesday. We have

854
00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 1: three college fball playoff games. Starting one Eastern ESPN the

855
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:12,960
Speaker 1: Chick fil A Peach Bowl in Atlanta, Georgia, Mercedes Benz Stadium,

856
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:17,400
Speaker 1: The Peach Bowl, Arizona State vers Texas. Texas down to

857
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:19,600
Speaker 1: an eleven and a half point favorite total fifty one

858
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 1: and a half in Atlanta. By the way, Iberian Pig,

859
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:26,399
Speaker 1: it's Tapa's good drinks there. This is a screen game.

860
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:29,200
Speaker 1: You want to watch good screens and well schemed offenses

861
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 1: with Sark, Kenny Dillingham or Royal. You're gonna see a

862
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 1: ton of great looking screens here. You can't throw it

863
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 1: deep on Texas and there's no Tyson, so they're really

864
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 1: gonna have to be scheming up some of the passes

865
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 1: off play action, and then they're gonna be feeding Scataboo.

866
00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 1: I mean, just he's gonna be well rested, it's healthy

867
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 1: as he's been all year. They're gonna give him the ball,

868
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 1: I don't know, thirty plus times through on the ground,

869
00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:59,920
Speaker 1: through the air. Where I'm having trouble is like the

870
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 1: Texas defense. I do believe in their secondary, but I

871
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:13,279
Speaker 1: mean not the most impressive performance against Clemson, who just

872
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:15,279
Speaker 1: was moving up and down the field, and if you

873
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:20,880
Speaker 1: look at Texas schedule. Remember they played the easiest got

874
00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 1: SC schedule, so we saw Clemson, you know, moved the

875
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:29,120
Speaker 1: ball on them through the air. The offenses they face

876
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 1: this here at Calorida State, Michigan, UTSA, ULM, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt,

877
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:41,800
Speaker 1: Florida with like a third string quarterback, Arkansas, Kentucky, A

878
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 1: and M. And then they lost to Georgia twice. Where

879
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 1: like the prolific passing offenses. Now, Arizona State is not

880
00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:52,360
Speaker 1: that well, not Jordan Tyson, but is the Texas defense

881
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 1: a bit overrated? Is a question I asked myself after

882
00:44:57,520 --> 00:45:03,319
Speaker 1: that Clemson game on this the same yeah, similar vane

883
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:10,440
Speaker 1: Arizona State's offense. I mean, after I watched Iowa State,

884
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 1: like they torched Iowa State, credit to them, I thought

885
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 1: that Tysons would be bigger.

886
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 3: It was not.

887
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:20,719
Speaker 1: But you know, Iowa State's defense was pretty poor this

888
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 1: year and they had injuries, and we saw that against Miami,

889
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 1: who was able to do whatever they wanted even when

890
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:28,480
Speaker 1: cam Mood went out of the game. Arizona State's offense,

891
00:45:28,480 --> 00:45:31,640
Speaker 1: here's where they face this year, Wyoming, Mississippi State, Texas State,

892
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 1: Texas Tech, Kansas, Utah, Sincy Oak State UCF BYU Kansas State.

893
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 1: I think defense was so overrated Arizona and Iowa State,

894
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:47,319
Speaker 1: Like they didn't really face an elite defense all year.

895
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:50,680
Speaker 1: So what gets I don't know. It's a question that

896
00:45:50,760 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 1: I've been pondering for days. Here. The Texas does have

897
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 1: some issues tackling scataboos. He's forced almost one hundred misstackles

898
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:02,880
Speaker 1: this year. How many can he force? How many plays

899
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 1: can he break? The Texas offensive line is going to

900
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:09,719
Speaker 1: have a huge edge here, That's what does worry me

901
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 1: about for Arizona State, and Texas should have an advantage

902
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 1: of the trenches on both sides of the ball, like

903
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 1: that's you're gonna see that here. They should maul Arizona

904
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:23,080
Speaker 1: State just at the point of attack, similar to what

905
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:26,280
Speaker 1: they did against Clemson, which means their run game should

906
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 1: get going and Arizona State can't get pressure and yours

907
00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 1: in a clean pocket like that's when he thrives. I mean,

908
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 1: Arizona State's bottom twenty pressure rate and yours under pressure

909
00:46:36,880 --> 00:46:39,400
Speaker 1: has issues. I was gonna say, if they want to

910
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:41,239
Speaker 1: sit in his zone, they want to prevent explosives and

911
00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 1: then just hope you make a mistake because they are

912
00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:47,799
Speaker 1: very good at turning teams over. So the questions are

913
00:46:48,000 --> 00:46:51,880
Speaker 1: which I think will decide this game. Three things. How

914
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:54,879
Speaker 1: big of a game can Skataboo have? Like just does

915
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:59,040
Speaker 1: he turn into monster mode, which he's done many times

916
00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:01,719
Speaker 1: this year. That's the Arizona State And I think they'll

917
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 1: scheme up some stuff with the screen games. But like,

918
00:47:03,600 --> 00:47:07,640
Speaker 1: if it's all about Scataboo on their offense on the

919
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 1: other side of the ball, I don't see them getting

920
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:14,680
Speaker 1: much pressure. I do see Texas having success running the ball.

921
00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:19,879
Speaker 1: So how does Arizona State stay in this game, cover

922
00:47:20,480 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 1: and or potentially pull off the upset? It's two things.

923
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:28,040
Speaker 1: Do they turn youers over? Youers likes to give the

924
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 1: ball away? Arizona State some good ball hawks in that secondary.

925
00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 1: And number two, something that's haunted Texas for two years.

926
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:43,680
Speaker 1: Do they finish drives? So ken Arizona State bend with

927
00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:49,120
Speaker 1: their zone, force a thrower to capitalize on a mistake,

928
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:53,600
Speaker 1: and then hold Texas to field goals. That's the formula.

929
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 1: What do you see here?

930
00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 6: Oh boy, you said everything.

931
00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:00,879
Speaker 1: My number is twelve, by the way, so yeah, twelve

932
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:01,239
Speaker 1: and a half.

933
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have already made a termination what I want

934
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:05,960
Speaker 2: to bet in this game, but the fact that this

935
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:07,880
Speaker 2: is in a dead zone, I haven't touched it, so

936
00:48:08,080 --> 00:48:09,279
Speaker 2: I don't know if you're gonna want to put this

937
00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:12,400
Speaker 2: on the board. But I love a certain side in

938
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:13,800
Speaker 2: this one, so let's go ahead and talk about it.

939
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 2: I do think Texas is going to have a lot

940
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 2: of success here. I think this is going to emulate

941
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:19,319
Speaker 2: the Clemson game all over again. I'm not worried about

942
00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:22,000
Speaker 2: the offensive line. Right tackle Cam Williams had an MRI,

943
00:48:22,160 --> 00:48:24,960
Speaker 2: it was precautionary. He's back in practice. Jake Major's at center,

944
00:48:25,040 --> 00:48:28,719
Speaker 2: full participant in practice. There's no issues that we thought

945
00:48:28,719 --> 00:48:31,480
Speaker 2: there would be with the offensive line. Isaiah Bond as

946
00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:34,279
Speaker 2: of yesterday, was a full participant in practice. So it

947
00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 2: looks like all systems to go here for Texas. And

948
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:40,760
Speaker 2: that's great for quinn Ewers because he is absolutely dominated

949
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:43,080
Speaker 2: cover one and cover three to the point where his

950
00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:45,440
Speaker 2: big play rate when he has passing attempts is at

951
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:49,359
Speaker 2: least one of every five creating and exposive play high

952
00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:52,440
Speaker 2: success rate. So I think this is not going to

953
00:48:52,480 --> 00:48:54,840
Speaker 2: be the coverage looks that have given him problems against

954
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:57,000
Speaker 2: the Georgia's and the better defenses in the world. So

955
00:48:57,040 --> 00:48:59,040
Speaker 2: I think Quinn is going to be fine getting as

956
00:48:59,080 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 2: many available yards as possible. Do I like a Quinn

957
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:05,520
Speaker 2: Eewers prop on his passing yards? I do, But we

958
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 2: have a little bit, Especially when you look at Arizona

959
00:49:07,719 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 2: State's defense one hundred and thirty second and creating a

960
00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:13,600
Speaker 2: pass rush eighty fourth in defensive havoc. The field is

961
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:16,239
Speaker 2: widely available for the Longhorns to go up and down.

962
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:19,040
Speaker 2: The problem is what is going on down in the

963
00:49:19,080 --> 00:49:19,480
Speaker 2: red zone?

964
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:19,960
Speaker 1: Was Stark?

965
00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:23,960
Speaker 6: This is not just a one or two problem kind

966
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:25,799
Speaker 6: of thing. This is like every game problem. Right.

967
00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:28,000
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go through the numbers. Now, Remember keep in

968
00:49:28,040 --> 00:49:31,520
Speaker 2: mind about three point five to three point seven is

969
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:35,440
Speaker 2: the average for offensive finishing drives. Here's Texas's offense last

970
00:49:35,480 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 2: few games. Three point four against Clemson, two point zero

971
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:40,360
Speaker 2: against Georgia, two point one against Texas A and M.

972
00:49:40,840 --> 00:49:44,040
Speaker 2: The red zone issues continue to be a problem for Sark.

973
00:49:44,120 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 2: So while I can look at everything on paper that

974
00:49:46,080 --> 00:49:49,080
Speaker 2: says this Texas offense is going to dominate, and they will,

975
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 2: that doesn't mean they're going to get it in the

976
00:49:51,080 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 2: end zone. Now, I know that Arizona State schedule is

977
00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:56,839
Speaker 2: not a murderer's row of opposing offenses a get in right.

978
00:49:56,960 --> 00:50:00,440
Speaker 2: But they held Iowa State to three point six, Arizona

979
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:03,239
Speaker 2: one point five, BYU three, Kansas State two.

980
00:50:04,560 --> 00:50:06,480
Speaker 6: So the one time that they blew up was Kansas.

981
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:07,600
Speaker 6: Kansas blew everybody up.

982
00:50:07,680 --> 00:50:09,879
Speaker 2: So besides that, I think it comes down to can

983
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:13,200
Speaker 2: Texas get into the red zone when they get into

984
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:15,640
Speaker 2: scoring position and there's another thing going on here stuck

985
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,840
Speaker 2: Like for some reason Sark is treating treating teams with

986
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 2: kid gloves. You're up twenty to ten on Arkansas and

987
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:23,600
Speaker 2: you run like an eight minute drive and you take

988
00:50:23,600 --> 00:50:26,719
Speaker 2: three knees at the goal line, like okay. So then

989
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:30,640
Speaker 2: against Clemson, literally they were trying to run out the clock.

990
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:32,480
Speaker 2: Clemson gets into the goal line, they have a goal

991
00:50:32,560 --> 00:50:35,120
Speaker 2: line stop, and then they're trying to just run out

992
00:50:35,160 --> 00:50:38,799
Speaker 2: the clock. Sark has no cares in the world about

993
00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:42,239
Speaker 2: covering the spread. It is about survive, advance, get me

994
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:44,560
Speaker 2: two or three possessions up and move on. So I

995
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:46,520
Speaker 2: just don't see it from him as a head coach

996
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:49,000
Speaker 2: trying to run things up. It's not like other head

997
00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:51,040
Speaker 2: coaches we've seen when you go to the other side

998
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:55,120
Speaker 2: of the ball. I mean it's fruitless. I think to say,

999
00:50:55,280 --> 00:50:58,800
Speaker 2: can skate bo skaaboo? Can he just go crazy on

1000
00:50:58,880 --> 00:51:01,920
Speaker 2: this offense? Yeah, I think he can because they run

1001
00:51:02,000 --> 00:51:04,560
Speaker 2: a heavy amount of outside zone. When you go look

1002
00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:06,960
Speaker 2: at the Texas d against outside zone, just an average

1003
00:51:07,000 --> 00:51:10,239
Speaker 2: fifty one percent success rate average against counter and man,

1004
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:13,040
Speaker 2: which they're gonna see. But where is the problem. The

1005
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:18,640
Speaker 2: Texas defensive ends have been bad in run defense. Baron

1006
00:51:18,680 --> 00:51:22,440
Speaker 2: Soorrel grades out very like one of the lowest against

1007
00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:24,640
Speaker 2: the run on the entire team, and Trey Moore is

1008
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:28,879
Speaker 2: the worst run defender on the team of anybody that's

1009
00:51:28,880 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 2: played one hundred and thirty run defensive snaps. They have

1010
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:35,520
Speaker 2: the highest mistackle rates of anybody else on the team

1011
00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:38,759
Speaker 2: playing defensive end. That's exactly where outside zone is going.

1012
00:51:39,239 --> 00:51:42,000
Speaker 2: So will Skateaboo get his yards? I absolutely think so.

1013
00:51:42,480 --> 00:51:45,080
Speaker 2: I mean Texas is seventy fifth and broken tackles allowed.

1014
00:51:45,120 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna have people hanging off him and

1015
00:51:46,640 --> 00:51:49,400
Speaker 2: he's gonna go. But that's not the reason that I

1016
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:52,000
Speaker 2: think Arizona State is gonna have so much success, right,

1017
00:51:52,280 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 2: And I mean that's a big statement saying that Cam

1018
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:56,960
Speaker 2: Skataboo is not gonna be the biggest reason. I think

1019
00:51:57,000 --> 00:51:59,759
Speaker 2: Sam Levitt is not getting enough credit here. This kid

1020
00:51:59,840 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 2: this season, one hundred and twenty dropbacks, one point five

1021
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 2: percent turnover worthy play rate. He's just been nails when

1022
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 2: he's had pressure put on side of him inside of

1023
00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 2: a pocket. Of course he has that twenty four to

1024
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:12,600
Speaker 2: five TD to I int. But we need to talk

1025
00:52:12,640 --> 00:52:16,200
Speaker 2: about why Clemson was able to move up and down

1026
00:52:16,239 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 2: the field because Sam Levitt hit his slot mel Kwon

1027
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:22,879
Speaker 2: Stovele for a sixty three yard explosive pass in that game.

1028
00:52:23,440 --> 00:52:26,560
Speaker 2: And when you go in the Big twelve Championship, and

1029
00:52:26,640 --> 00:52:28,680
Speaker 2: that is after losing Jordan Tyson, you think, well, they

1030
00:52:28,719 --> 00:52:31,560
Speaker 2: have no passing offense. They did that Milkwon Stovell out

1031
00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:33,840
Speaker 2: of the slot was explosive. Let's go back and review

1032
00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:38,720
Speaker 2: how Clemson was so successful. Jake Brenningstool and Antonio Williams

1033
00:52:38,800 --> 00:52:42,799
Speaker 2: thirteen targets, eight catches. They averaged seventeen yards a catch.

1034
00:52:43,480 --> 00:52:47,480
Speaker 2: They had sixty yards after catch. Everybody else on the

1035
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:49,680
Speaker 2: team had six targets for fifty one yards after catch.

1036
00:52:49,719 --> 00:52:53,200
Speaker 2: Brenning Stool and Antonio Williams out of the slot destroyed

1037
00:52:53,440 --> 00:52:55,719
Speaker 2: the middle of the Texas defense. And I'm sorry, I'm

1038
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:58,560
Speaker 2: going to get individual on these Texas defensive players. Left

1039
00:52:58,600 --> 00:53:01,360
Speaker 2: cornerback Malik Muhammad was to targeted eight times, he allowed

1040
00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:05,000
Speaker 2: six catches one hundred and twenty yards. Brenning Stoel owned him.

1041
00:53:05,680 --> 00:53:10,560
Speaker 2: Slot corner Jalen Gilbo he had targeted seven times, five catches,

1042
00:53:10,600 --> 00:53:13,280
Speaker 2: thirty two yards after catch and allowed to TV Antonio

1043
00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:17,160
Speaker 2: Williams knocked him around for a few explosives. And then finally,

1044
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:20,279
Speaker 2: weak side linebacker Anthony Hill picked on all day and

1045
00:53:20,360 --> 00:53:22,719
Speaker 2: he's going to get picked on here by camp Skataboo.

1046
00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 2: In the pass game, Brenning Stool got him for a

1047
00:53:25,080 --> 00:53:28,360
Speaker 2: twenty seven yarder. Running Back Jarvis Green burned him for

1048
00:53:28,440 --> 00:53:30,600
Speaker 2: a twenty five yarder out of the backfield for Clemson.

1049
00:53:31,280 --> 00:53:34,080
Speaker 2: I just think three point two targets per game for

1050
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:37,239
Speaker 2: camp Skataboo, thirteen point seven yards per catch. I think

1051
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:41,120
Speaker 2: there's some props here for camp Skataboo in the receiving game,

1052
00:53:41,200 --> 00:53:44,040
Speaker 2: in the receiving yards game, in the touchdown game. But

1053
00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:48,400
Speaker 2: what happened was Clemson spammed the slot over the middle

1054
00:53:48,440 --> 00:53:50,680
Speaker 2: of the Texas defense and they were in scoring position

1055
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:54,760
Speaker 2: all day. I think we mentioned Brenning Stool and Antonio Williams.

1056
00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:58,160
Speaker 2: I mentioned that was the avenue. That's why I liked Clemson. Well,

1057
00:53:58,239 --> 00:54:00,520
Speaker 2: that's a real problem here. I like air Zona State.

1058
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:02,280
Speaker 2: I'm sitting on twelve and a half in some books.

1059
00:54:02,600 --> 00:54:04,600
Speaker 2: If anybody wants to get back to that flat thirteen,

1060
00:54:04,640 --> 00:54:07,279
Speaker 2: which I think we'll get, I'm ready to play it.

1061
00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:10,040
Speaker 2: I mean I should just play the twelve. I am

1062
00:54:10,160 --> 00:54:15,360
Speaker 2: that confident. I like props for a skataboot in the

1063
00:54:15,440 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 2: receiving yards game. I like that too, So I'm Arizona

1064
00:54:19,640 --> 00:54:20,319
Speaker 2: State all the way here.

1065
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:22,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he's gonna get a lot of looks

1066
00:54:23,600 --> 00:54:26,800
Speaker 1: through the air and the most likely scenarios they're playing

1067
00:54:26,840 --> 00:54:29,040
Speaker 1: in a trailing game State. The only thing I worry

1068
00:54:29,080 --> 00:54:33,680
Speaker 1: about Levitt is just again, what defenses did he face

1069
00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:36,239
Speaker 1: that have the same talent level as Texas. But there's

1070
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:39,360
Speaker 1: a chance that Texas defense is also a bit overrated

1071
00:54:39,400 --> 00:54:43,359
Speaker 1: when you really dive in to their schedule. Yeah, I'm

1072
00:54:43,440 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 1: right on the number, But my gut says Arizona State.

1073
00:54:46,719 --> 00:54:48,680
Speaker 6: Doing exit close you put it on the board.

1074
00:54:49,560 --> 00:54:52,040
Speaker 1: No, I can't out a principle, but at thirteen it

1075
00:54:52,080 --> 00:54:54,120
Speaker 1: would have been on the board. I'm not going to

1076
00:54:54,160 --> 00:54:54,680
Speaker 1: have the head with you.

1077
00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:57,520
Speaker 6: No, I want Arizona. We'd be together.

1078
00:54:58,280 --> 00:54:59,880
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying. Like, I'm not going against you

1079
00:55:00,400 --> 00:55:02,719
Speaker 1: by lean Arizona State. I just wish I had a

1080
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 1: bit better of a number.

1081
00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:06,279
Speaker 2: We'll flash out the bat signal on the Action app

1082
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:08,120
Speaker 2: when it gets to thirteen. We will make sure to

1083
00:55:08,200 --> 00:55:10,200
Speaker 2: put it out there for everybody for sure.

1084
00:55:11,160 --> 00:55:14,640
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the Rose Bowl, also

1085
00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:19,040
Speaker 1: on January first, Wednesday, five pm Eastern on ESPN The

1086
00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:19,960
Speaker 1: Rose Bowl.

1087
00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:23,239
Speaker 4: Those are the Ohio State Buck guys knocking on the

1088
00:55:23,280 --> 00:55:25,880
Speaker 4: front door and they come in with a world of

1089
00:55:25,960 --> 00:55:29,120
Speaker 4: incentive as they pondered their flight and their way through

1090
00:55:29,200 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 4: the season. And so far, so good, and right now

1091
00:55:32,680 --> 00:55:34,719
Speaker 4: the Bucks played they can play with anybody.

1092
00:55:35,360 --> 00:55:37,800
Speaker 6: Well, we are about to find out.

1093
00:55:38,960 --> 00:55:41,960
Speaker 1: To rematch between Oregon and Ohio State. Ohio State a

1094
00:55:42,200 --> 00:55:46,960
Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite in Pasadena, in Pasadena,

1095
00:55:47,200 --> 00:55:50,279
Speaker 1: Osawa Sushi check that place out. A couple of really

1096
00:55:50,320 --> 00:55:53,239
Speaker 1: good family run sushi places in Pasadena. This is what

1097
00:55:53,320 --> 00:55:56,439
Speaker 1: you get Oregon. Dan Lanning, he wanted to beat Penn

1098
00:55:56,520 --> 00:55:59,720
Speaker 1: State in the Big Ten Championship. Now you're an underdog

1099
00:56:00,040 --> 00:56:02,160
Speaker 1: in your first game in the Katro Playoff despite being

1100
00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:06,760
Speaker 1: the one seed and the only undefeated team in the country.

1101
00:56:07,280 --> 00:56:11,920
Speaker 1: This one should be a dandy. I like Ohio State

1102
00:56:11,960 --> 00:56:16,280
Speaker 1: in this game, but I mean you're playing a premium

1103
00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:16,800
Speaker 1: for them.

1104
00:56:17,360 --> 00:56:19,520
Speaker 6: For sure, like if finding cheap moneyling.

1105
00:56:20,320 --> 00:56:24,000
Speaker 1: I think ah State's winning the national championship. What yep,

1106
00:56:25,040 --> 00:56:29,440
Speaker 1: he should know better. I think State's winning the national championship.

1107
00:56:29,600 --> 00:56:31,120
Speaker 1: I actually think the winner of this game is winning

1108
00:56:31,120 --> 00:56:33,640
Speaker 1: the national championship. And I think Ohio State's gonna win

1109
00:56:33,719 --> 00:56:35,200
Speaker 1: this game. I mean, who do you think is could

1110
00:56:35,239 --> 00:56:36,239
Speaker 1: win the national championship?

1111
00:56:36,600 --> 00:56:38,200
Speaker 6: Well, I agree with you on this game.

1112
00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:39,480
Speaker 1: Do you think Oregan's winning this game?

1113
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:41,279
Speaker 6: I think we need to talk about that the next

1114
00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:42,719
Speaker 6: game that we cover. I think we can talk about

1115
00:56:42,719 --> 00:56:43,640
Speaker 6: it when we get to the Sugar Bowl.

1116
00:56:43,800 --> 00:56:45,600
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think Ohia States winning the national title. I

1117
00:56:45,640 --> 00:56:48,880
Speaker 1: think they're From what I saw against Tennessee, it is

1118
00:56:49,000 --> 00:56:52,040
Speaker 1: truly the Ryan Day US against the world. It's Ohio

1119
00:56:52,080 --> 00:56:52,720
Speaker 1: against the world.

1120
00:56:53,239 --> 00:56:55,719
Speaker 6: It's almost been Ohio against the world. It'll continue to

1121
00:56:55,840 --> 00:56:56,839
Speaker 6: Ohio against the world.

1122
00:56:56,960 --> 00:57:00,759
Speaker 1: Their players have taken that loss to Michigan and use

1123
00:57:00,800 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 1: it as fuel. I know it's kind of narratively, but

1124
00:57:03,400 --> 00:57:06,359
Speaker 1: it's just what I think. I do make Ohio State

1125
00:57:07,040 --> 00:57:10,120
Speaker 1: a small favor in this game. The biggest questions I

1126
00:57:10,200 --> 00:57:12,360
Speaker 1: have here so the way I might play it, because

1127
00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:15,840
Speaker 1: I do think Ohio State wins and there's not that

1128
00:57:16,000 --> 00:57:18,000
Speaker 1: much value and there's no there's no value in this

1129
00:57:18,120 --> 00:57:19,960
Speaker 1: number in the futures, markt right now. But I might

1130
00:57:20,040 --> 00:57:23,280
Speaker 1: put a little bit on Ohio State plus three. What's

1131
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:26,400
Speaker 1: out there plus three fifty to win a national title.

1132
00:57:27,000 --> 00:57:32,280
Speaker 1: Where it would have value is if there's chaos elsewhere,

1133
00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:36,680
Speaker 1: and if Arizona State beats Texas, then there certainly would

1134
00:57:36,680 --> 00:57:39,880
Speaker 1: be and I think that's the one. I think Izona

1135
00:57:39,880 --> 00:57:43,280
Speaker 1: State's much more likely to potentially upset, even though that's

1136
00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:43,960
Speaker 1: a bigger spread.

1137
00:57:45,080 --> 00:57:45,680
Speaker 6: I think about this.

1138
00:57:48,600 --> 00:57:51,360
Speaker 2: Your avenue here, and I just add on what you're saying.

1139
00:57:52,120 --> 00:57:54,240
Speaker 2: We just broke down why Texas has given up so

1140
00:57:54,320 --> 00:57:56,440
Speaker 2: having so many problems with Clemson. Did we just see

1141
00:57:56,480 --> 00:58:00,240
Speaker 2: what Ohio State did in the middle of the Tennessee defense, right?

1142
00:58:00,760 --> 00:58:01,000
Speaker 1: Yep?

1143
00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:03,600
Speaker 2: I mean you're right the winner of this game, which

1144
00:58:03,840 --> 00:58:06,960
Speaker 2: I agree with you. There's a path, all right, go ahead.

1145
00:58:07,400 --> 00:58:10,120
Speaker 1: So these two teams met earlier this season in Eugene,

1146
00:58:11,120 --> 00:58:12,840
Speaker 1: Oregon held on to win by one. It was a

1147
00:58:12,880 --> 00:58:15,400
Speaker 1: high scoring game. I agree with the overmove here, it's

1148
00:58:15,400 --> 00:58:18,120
Speaker 1: an obvious one, but I mean, I do wish I

1149
00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:21,080
Speaker 1: grabbed some of this before it went to fit through

1150
00:58:21,120 --> 00:58:26,960
Speaker 1: the key of fifty five. Ohio States offense against Tennessee

1151
00:58:27,000 --> 00:58:29,400
Speaker 1: finally did what I wanted them to do. Now, I

1152
00:58:29,440 --> 00:58:31,320
Speaker 1: think that they'll also have success on the ground here,

1153
00:58:31,360 --> 00:58:34,320
Speaker 1: which I didn't think they necessarily would against Tennessee. I

1154
00:58:34,360 --> 00:58:38,280
Speaker 1: should say a relative success. Just they could run the

1155
00:58:38,320 --> 00:58:39,720
Speaker 1: ball a little bit more than I think they could

1156
00:58:39,720 --> 00:58:42,320
Speaker 1: have against Tennessee. But I don't think their offensive line

1157
00:58:42,320 --> 00:58:44,280
Speaker 1: is going to get great push here. Darvins line just

1158
00:58:44,360 --> 00:58:46,880
Speaker 1: doesn't get great push due to the injuries. If you

1159
00:58:46,960 --> 00:58:49,160
Speaker 1: go back to the first meeting, that's when they lost

1160
00:58:49,200 --> 00:58:54,280
Speaker 1: their left tackle and it was noticeable. And since then

1161
00:58:54,320 --> 00:58:56,160
Speaker 1: they lost their center. And by the way, Oregon will

1162
00:58:56,160 --> 00:58:59,000
Speaker 1: have Birch back at defensive end. They didn't have them

1163
00:58:59,200 --> 00:59:06,240
Speaker 1: in the first meeting. But I just this Oregon defense

1164
00:59:06,320 --> 00:59:10,840
Speaker 1: to me is overrated. I mean, we saw what Penn

1165
00:59:10,880 --> 00:59:13,560
Speaker 1: State did to them, we saw what Boise State did

1166
00:59:13,600 --> 00:59:18,120
Speaker 1: to them. I think Ohio State's going to be able

1167
00:59:18,160 --> 00:59:20,800
Speaker 1: to move the ball. Now, what happened in the first meeting.

1168
00:59:20,880 --> 00:59:24,280
Speaker 1: Ohio State couldn't get stops. Number one, their defensive line,

1169
00:59:24,400 --> 00:59:26,920
Speaker 1: their edge rushers didn't really show up, and they've been

1170
00:59:27,000 --> 00:59:29,960
Speaker 1: hit or missed. And Oregon hazed outstanding tackles, probably the

1171
00:59:29,960 --> 00:59:33,040
Speaker 1: best tackle duo right there with Texas in the country.

1172
00:59:34,400 --> 00:59:38,040
Speaker 1: So Ken Ohio State get pressure. But Ohio State, what

1173
00:59:38,120 --> 00:59:41,040
Speaker 1: they did in that game is they left their corners

1174
00:59:41,080 --> 00:59:44,880
Speaker 1: on islands, played a lot of single high and Burke

1175
00:59:44,960 --> 00:59:49,320
Speaker 1: got destroyed on the outside. Stuart went bananas had his

1176
00:59:49,400 --> 00:59:52,160
Speaker 1: best game of the season. I think you see them

1177
00:59:52,200 --> 00:59:57,400
Speaker 1: go with more safety help two high looks this game.

1178
00:59:57,480 --> 01:00:01,280
Speaker 1: They have two really really really good safeties and they're

1179
01:00:01,320 --> 01:00:04,440
Speaker 1: gonna make Oregon kind of drive the field more here

1180
01:00:05,400 --> 01:00:07,360
Speaker 1: and then choose they're gonna pick it choose. I was

1181
01:00:07,480 --> 01:00:08,800
Speaker 1: gonna mix it out, but I think I do think

1182
01:00:08,800 --> 01:00:12,000
Speaker 1: you see more too high looks to prevent some of

1183
01:00:12,040 --> 01:00:15,960
Speaker 1: those explosive plays. I just think Ohio State's the better

1184
01:00:16,000 --> 01:00:20,360
Speaker 1: overall team, and I think this Oregon defense is right.

1185
01:00:22,000 --> 01:00:25,040
Speaker 1: Our producers very upset, but I said Ohio State's gonna

1186
01:00:25,040 --> 01:00:27,600
Speaker 1: win it all. Put a message in the live chat,

1187
01:00:27,720 --> 01:00:30,280
Speaker 1: but curious to get your your thoughts on this. I mean,

1188
01:00:30,320 --> 01:00:32,960
Speaker 1: like the thing is from a numbers perspective, this's got

1189
01:00:33,000 --> 01:00:38,760
Speaker 1: the three I should bet Oregon. So I'm a bit conflicted,

1190
01:00:38,840 --> 01:00:43,600
Speaker 1: But my gut intuition, everything that I've watched this year

1191
01:00:45,360 --> 01:00:48,040
Speaker 1: says Ohio State gets their adventure and they're gonna win

1192
01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:48,320
Speaker 1: it all.

1193
01:00:48,840 --> 01:00:50,800
Speaker 6: Well, sir, you have provided the bread.

1194
01:00:50,880 --> 01:00:52,240
Speaker 2: Let me put the beef in the middle of this

1195
01:00:52,320 --> 01:00:54,360
Speaker 2: sandwich so I can tell you what's actually going on.

1196
01:00:54,920 --> 01:00:57,880
Speaker 2: Ohio State and Jim Knowles and Ryan Day had a

1197
01:00:57,920 --> 01:01:00,320
Speaker 2: big conversation after they lost to Oregon. They said something

1198
01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:04,160
Speaker 2: has to change. And so Jim Knowles is being pressed.

1199
01:01:07,000 --> 01:01:10,160
Speaker 2: Jim Knowles is being pressed in the in the press

1200
01:01:10,200 --> 01:01:12,520
Speaker 2: conference leading up to this game and being asked like,

1201
01:01:12,600 --> 01:01:12,920
Speaker 2: you know, what.

1202
01:01:13,000 --> 01:01:14,440
Speaker 6: Are the changes? What are the changes?

1203
01:01:15,080 --> 01:01:17,280
Speaker 2: And you know, he really didn't want to give it

1204
01:01:17,320 --> 01:01:21,000
Speaker 2: away about what exactly has changed with this organ with

1205
01:01:21,320 --> 01:01:22,840
Speaker 2: the entire with the defense, because you know it's a

1206
01:01:22,840 --> 01:01:24,920
Speaker 2: four two five. You know they have that bullet position.

1207
01:01:25,440 --> 01:01:27,760
Speaker 2: You know that they run a lot of cover one. Well,

1208
01:01:27,880 --> 01:01:31,560
Speaker 2: who was the biggest win in the transfer portal a

1209
01:01:31,640 --> 01:01:33,880
Speaker 2: year ago is Caleb Downs coming into play safety and

1210
01:01:33,960 --> 01:01:35,800
Speaker 2: he is the one that they've had at the top

1211
01:01:35,880 --> 01:01:38,400
Speaker 2: at at the deep safety, the single high safety, and

1212
01:01:38,520 --> 01:01:41,040
Speaker 2: the cover one that's been there the entire season. He

1213
01:01:41,120 --> 01:01:43,920
Speaker 2: was there through the organ game and it just wasn't working.

1214
01:01:44,040 --> 01:01:47,400
Speaker 2: Denzel Burke gave up one hundred and sixty two yards

1215
01:01:47,440 --> 01:01:49,600
Speaker 2: at the corner position. He needed help, and the single

1216
01:01:49,680 --> 01:01:51,920
Speaker 2: high safety just couldn't get there to help him out

1217
01:01:51,920 --> 01:01:55,800
Speaker 2: at any point. Plus, Caleb Downs has so many additional

1218
01:01:55,920 --> 01:01:59,480
Speaker 2: abilities than just patrolling thirty yards back behind the line

1219
01:01:59,520 --> 01:02:02,520
Speaker 2: of scrimmt. They needed to do something to get Caleb

1220
01:02:02,560 --> 01:02:05,560
Speaker 2: Williams more active, turn him into what I call a

1221
01:02:05,680 --> 01:02:07,760
Speaker 2: queen of the chess board where he can move anywhere

1222
01:02:07,800 --> 01:02:10,960
Speaker 2: at any time and take up any square. Well, they

1223
01:02:11,040 --> 01:02:12,880
Speaker 2: made that change after the Oregon loss. They went and

1224
01:02:12,920 --> 01:02:15,680
Speaker 2: put Jordan Hancock. They took him in a starting role

1225
01:02:15,760 --> 01:02:18,880
Speaker 2: back at the deep safety. He was playing against the slot.

1226
01:02:19,080 --> 01:02:20,720
Speaker 2: They put him in the back and then they said,

1227
01:02:20,760 --> 01:02:23,760
Speaker 2: Caleb Downs, you go wherever you need to go. Since

1228
01:02:23,880 --> 01:02:27,840
Speaker 2: that game, Jordan Hancock's been targeted thirty four times opposing

1229
01:02:27,920 --> 01:02:31,920
Speaker 2: quarterbacks have an NFL rating of fifty nine. Hancock on

1230
01:02:32,000 --> 01:02:34,880
Speaker 2: the season four PBUs and an interception. You go and

1231
01:02:35,000 --> 01:02:38,360
Speaker 2: look at Caleb Downs, missed only two tackles and I

1232
01:02:38,400 --> 01:02:42,240
Speaker 2: think he has twenty four stops on the season, tackling

1233
01:02:42,440 --> 01:02:45,800
Speaker 2: in space like an animal. Now, it took forever to

1234
01:02:45,840 --> 01:02:48,720
Speaker 2: get that out of Oles because he first came in

1235
01:02:48,880 --> 01:02:51,360
Speaker 2: with all of this coach speak. We have renewed intensity,

1236
01:02:52,160 --> 01:02:55,960
Speaker 2: We're lining up faster. The defensive ends care we just

1237
01:02:56,040 --> 01:02:59,240
Speaker 2: had a subpar game. No, the change that has turned

1238
01:02:59,280 --> 01:03:02,680
Speaker 2: this Ohio State defense into a national championship defense is

1239
01:03:02,720 --> 01:03:05,760
Speaker 2: the fact that Caleb Downs, the biggest transfer portal win

1240
01:03:05,920 --> 01:03:08,640
Speaker 2: last year, is roaming the field anywhere he wants and

1241
01:03:08,760 --> 01:03:11,800
Speaker 2: he is not assigned to be the single high safety

1242
01:03:12,000 --> 01:03:14,600
Speaker 2: in this Cover one defense. And I can go into

1243
01:03:14,640 --> 01:03:16,640
Speaker 2: a billion other stats. I could talk to you about

1244
01:03:16,640 --> 01:03:18,880
Speaker 2: what Oregon's gonna do here and what Oregon's gonna do there,

1245
01:03:18,920 --> 01:03:21,919
Speaker 2: But frankly, Dylan Gabriel's average depth of target is six

1246
01:03:22,000 --> 01:03:25,240
Speaker 2: point nine yards. Tess Johnson's doing the work, Evan Stewart's

1247
01:03:25,280 --> 01:03:27,040
Speaker 2: doing the work. And guess what, when you're gonna let

1248
01:03:27,120 --> 01:03:29,960
Speaker 2: Jordan James and Noah Whittington get these balls behind the

1249
01:03:30,000 --> 01:03:32,440
Speaker 2: line of scrimmage, and you're gonna allow Caleb Williams to

1250
01:03:32,600 --> 01:03:36,520
Speaker 2: roam and stick them in one on one space advantage

1251
01:03:36,560 --> 01:03:38,400
Speaker 2: Ohio State the whole day.

1252
01:03:38,480 --> 01:03:39,280
Speaker 6: And by the way, can we.

1253
01:03:39,320 --> 01:03:41,360
Speaker 2: Talk about a little bit of luck in that box score?

1254
01:03:41,720 --> 01:03:44,600
Speaker 2: Dan Lanning went nine. I'm sorry, you know, the third downs,

1255
01:03:44,680 --> 01:03:47,600
Speaker 2: the fourth downs. My eyes really got open with that

1256
01:03:47,640 --> 01:03:53,040
Speaker 2: Penn State game because Penn State ran Oregon up a flagpole,

1257
01:03:53,400 --> 01:03:55,600
Speaker 2: and I know Ohio State can do the same thing.

1258
01:03:55,840 --> 01:03:59,280
Speaker 2: I mean, Penn State had higher overall yards per play.

1259
01:03:59,600 --> 01:04:01,960
Speaker 2: There was no pressure on Drew Aller whatsoever. And by

1260
01:04:01,960 --> 01:04:04,800
Speaker 2: the way, he doesn't make mistakes. Oregon finished sixty seventh

1261
01:04:04,880 --> 01:04:07,320
Speaker 2: in defensive rushing success right, one hundred and nineteenth in

1262
01:04:07,400 --> 01:04:10,680
Speaker 2: defensive stuff. We've known their defense is bad against the rush.

1263
01:04:11,040 --> 01:04:14,800
Speaker 2: It's worse than I thought I remember around. I mean,

1264
01:04:14,880 --> 01:04:16,600
Speaker 2: there was big reasons why I was on Ohio State

1265
01:04:16,640 --> 01:04:19,240
Speaker 2: when they went out to Eugene and they just didn't

1266
01:04:19,280 --> 01:04:23,200
Speaker 2: perform offensively enough and their defense got cracked. Well, the

1267
01:04:23,280 --> 01:04:26,280
Speaker 2: defensive side is fine, but now on the offensive side,

1268
01:04:26,960 --> 01:04:28,800
Speaker 2: they're going to take advantage of an Oregon defense that

1269
01:04:28,880 --> 01:04:31,240
Speaker 2: has just fallen off the map. They used to be

1270
01:04:31,400 --> 01:04:34,080
Speaker 2: second in the nation in creating contested catches. Right now

1271
01:04:34,480 --> 01:04:37,960
Speaker 2: they're fiftieth in creating contested catches. They're also fiftieth in

1272
01:04:38,080 --> 01:04:43,280
Speaker 2: broken tackles allowed. This Oregon defense is getting worse game

1273
01:04:43,520 --> 01:04:46,320
Speaker 2: by game by game. And by the way, if Will

1274
01:04:46,400 --> 01:04:50,400
Speaker 2: Howard doesn't slide with time expired, you don't think that

1275
01:04:50,480 --> 01:04:53,280
Speaker 2: they don't make that field goal. I mean, on the season,

1276
01:04:53,360 --> 01:04:55,840
Speaker 2: Jaden Fielding from the forty to forty nine range has

1277
01:04:55,920 --> 01:04:58,280
Speaker 2: hit five of six. He was going to nail that

1278
01:04:58,360 --> 01:05:00,160
Speaker 2: forty seven yard field goal, and this would be a

1279
01:05:00,240 --> 01:05:05,160
Speaker 2: completely different narrative. It'd been a completely different season. Listen,

1280
01:05:05,280 --> 01:05:08,280
Speaker 2: what Penn State did to the Oregon defense should have

1281
01:05:08,360 --> 01:05:10,680
Speaker 2: opened everybody's eyes up to what's going on with the

1282
01:05:10,760 --> 01:05:13,000
Speaker 2: Ducks defense. It is degeneratively getting worse.

1283
01:05:13,800 --> 01:05:15,800
Speaker 1: I mean, even a Maryland game, Maryland's moving the ball

1284
01:05:15,880 --> 01:05:20,280
Speaker 1: up and down the field. Michigan had success moving the ball.

1285
01:05:20,480 --> 01:05:22,480
Speaker 1: But I mean, look at these offenses that they faced

1286
01:05:22,520 --> 01:05:25,840
Speaker 1: all year. I mean, so Ohio State put up thirty,

1287
01:05:26,200 --> 01:05:28,720
Speaker 1: Boise States to put up thirty one, Boisse State put

1288
01:05:28,800 --> 01:05:32,240
Speaker 1: up thirty four. Here the other offenses they faced Oregon State, Ucla,

1289
01:05:32,600 --> 01:05:45,920
Speaker 1: Michigan State, Idaho, Purdue, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Wisconsin, Washington, and

1290
01:05:46,000 --> 01:05:48,920
Speaker 1: then Ben State put up thirty seven. So I think

1291
01:05:49,200 --> 01:05:50,960
Speaker 1: now that the only thing that I worry about with

1292
01:05:51,560 --> 01:05:54,600
Speaker 1: so Wick Ohio State's playing this disrespect card. But Oregon

1293
01:05:54,680 --> 01:05:57,280
Speaker 1: could do that here too, and it is big game day,

1294
01:05:57,880 --> 01:06:02,200
Speaker 1: Like is you got a turtle up here? Not the

1295
01:06:02,400 --> 01:06:06,480
Speaker 1: aggressive and and then you have Lanning Lands to be

1296
01:06:06,520 --> 01:06:08,520
Speaker 1: able to play the disrespect card. You're like, we're underdogs,

1297
01:06:08,560 --> 01:06:11,640
Speaker 1: we were number one, Like Oregon's gonna come out fired up?

1298
01:06:12,720 --> 01:06:13,000
Speaker 1: Is there?

1299
01:06:13,120 --> 01:06:13,400
Speaker 3: Russ?

1300
01:06:13,440 --> 01:06:13,640
Speaker 6: Though?

1301
01:06:13,920 --> 01:06:16,840
Speaker 1: That's that concerns me for Oregon.

1302
01:06:17,840 --> 01:06:18,400
Speaker 6: But I don't think.

1303
01:06:19,240 --> 01:06:20,800
Speaker 2: I don't think the field at the Rose Bowl helps

1304
01:06:20,840 --> 01:06:23,800
Speaker 2: Oregon speed at all. If that's one thing for Tess Johnson,

1305
01:06:23,840 --> 01:06:25,600
Speaker 2: for Evan Stewart, I mean that's one thing.

1306
01:06:26,360 --> 01:06:29,720
Speaker 1: I mean, I'll take the Auto State receivers over Oregon's receivers.

1307
01:06:29,760 --> 01:06:32,040
Speaker 1: And by the way, more Jeremiah Smith in the slot

1308
01:06:32,640 --> 01:06:33,880
Speaker 1: I think is a good thing.

1309
01:06:34,960 --> 01:06:36,080
Speaker 6: Uh Can I say?

1310
01:06:36,880 --> 01:06:36,960
Speaker 7: How?

1311
01:06:37,760 --> 01:06:37,960
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1312
01:06:38,360 --> 01:06:40,440
Speaker 2: I need to eat crow right. I mean I've kind

1313
01:06:40,480 --> 01:06:41,800
Speaker 2: of bagged on him all year since they went and

1314
01:06:41,840 --> 01:06:45,760
Speaker 2: got it from Kansas State. He has been mistake free

1315
01:06:45,920 --> 01:06:49,200
Speaker 2: in the biggest games. Against Tennessee. He had three big time,

1316
01:06:49,560 --> 01:06:51,840
Speaker 2: three big time throws, no turnover worthy plays that was

1317
01:06:51,880 --> 01:06:55,439
Speaker 2: his best performance since he played Northwestern. He saw only

1318
01:06:55,520 --> 01:06:58,320
Speaker 2: eight pressures against the Tennessee defensive line, didn't make a mistake,

1319
01:06:58,400 --> 01:07:01,800
Speaker 2: saw nine pressures again Oregon the first time, didn't make

1320
01:07:01,840 --> 01:07:05,520
Speaker 2: a mistake. So Howard has done what he was asked

1321
01:07:05,560 --> 01:07:08,160
Speaker 2: to do when he transferred in don't screw us up,

1322
01:07:08,680 --> 01:07:10,200
Speaker 2: And the only thing that he's done.

1323
01:07:10,080 --> 01:07:16,560
Speaker 1: Is pressure under pressure, He's both quarterbacks are shaky under pressure,

1324
01:07:17,360 --> 01:07:21,040
Speaker 1: and the delta is pretty wide, right, most quarterbacks are

1325
01:07:21,040 --> 01:07:22,960
Speaker 1: going to have bad numbers under pressure, but compared to

1326
01:07:22,960 --> 01:07:25,360
Speaker 1: when they're kept clean. So I will say, like I

1327
01:07:25,560 --> 01:07:29,480
Speaker 1: don't it sounds like we're disrespecting Oregon to like Oregon.

1328
01:07:29,960 --> 01:07:32,440
Speaker 1: These are the two best teams in the country in

1329
01:07:32,560 --> 01:07:38,840
Speaker 1: my opinion, and both quarterbacks can be vulnerable under pressure.

1330
01:07:39,360 --> 01:07:42,280
Speaker 1: And I will say I'm a bit more worried about

1331
01:07:42,320 --> 01:07:45,320
Speaker 1: Will Howard being under pressure with a lot of State's

1332
01:07:45,480 --> 01:07:49,400
Speaker 1: offensive line issues than I am. Dyan Gabriel, who has

1333
01:07:50,600 --> 01:07:54,840
Speaker 1: you know, elite tackles and a much stronger offensive line,

1334
01:07:55,000 --> 01:07:59,120
Speaker 1: and Ohio State defensive line that tit or miss whether

1335
01:07:59,280 --> 01:08:03,040
Speaker 1: whether they're general at pressure, So that worries.

1336
01:08:02,800 --> 01:08:03,400
Speaker 6: Me a bit.

1337
01:08:04,200 --> 01:08:07,520
Speaker 1: Landing playing so you know, small game day they need

1338
01:08:07,600 --> 01:08:10,720
Speaker 1: to come out here and be aggressive. So I fifty

1339
01:08:10,760 --> 01:08:13,919
Speaker 1: five and a half across the key. It's a big game.

1340
01:08:15,400 --> 01:08:16,960
Speaker 1: I don't know if i'd still go there, but I'd

1341
01:08:17,040 --> 01:08:21,519
Speaker 1: lean that way, and I think Ohio State is the side.

1342
01:08:21,720 --> 01:08:25,760
Speaker 1: But you're it's not like this number that's a ton

1343
01:08:25,800 --> 01:08:26,160
Speaker 1: of value.

1344
01:08:26,479 --> 01:08:28,880
Speaker 2: I took minus one twenty five. There are we're recording

1345
01:08:28,920 --> 01:08:31,280
Speaker 2: this on the morning of December thirtieth. There are four

1346
01:08:31,400 --> 01:08:33,760
Speaker 2: minus one twenty five's out there. I would play it

1347
01:08:33,840 --> 01:08:35,040
Speaker 2: to minus one thirty five.

1348
01:08:37,160 --> 01:08:37,479
Speaker 6: You can do.

1349
01:08:37,560 --> 01:08:39,559
Speaker 2: Everybody can do what they want with sliding the points,

1350
01:08:39,560 --> 01:08:42,040
Speaker 2: spread around and get in the juice. I'm I am

1351
01:08:42,120 --> 01:08:45,679
Speaker 2: team Ohio State here, and I'm sure the Buckeye fans

1352
01:08:45,920 --> 01:08:47,920
Speaker 2: that listen to this podcast are probably not happy with that.

1353
01:08:48,080 --> 01:08:52,479
Speaker 2: But I cannot get over Caleb Downs free roaming on

1354
01:08:52,560 --> 01:08:55,320
Speaker 2: that defense and what Hancock has done to the single

1355
01:08:55,400 --> 01:08:56,240
Speaker 2: high safety. It is.

1356
01:08:56,520 --> 01:08:57,840
Speaker 1: All I need you to do is put out a

1357
01:08:57,880 --> 01:09:01,960
Speaker 1: tweet in the first quarter saying Ohio State's offensive line

1358
01:09:02,040 --> 01:09:04,599
Speaker 1: is losing every battle and then we'll be safe.

1359
01:09:05,040 --> 01:09:06,080
Speaker 6: Yes, I'll do that.

1360
01:09:06,960 --> 01:09:11,160
Speaker 1: I'm putting I'm putting Ohio State on the board. I'll

1361
01:09:11,200 --> 01:09:12,680
Speaker 1: be on them in some for or fashion, I might

1362
01:09:12,720 --> 01:09:13,759
Speaker 1: take a I need a future.

1363
01:09:14,080 --> 01:09:15,280
Speaker 6: So are we are okay?

1364
01:09:15,320 --> 01:09:16,640
Speaker 2: So let's we want to talk about the next game,

1365
01:09:16,680 --> 01:09:18,120
Speaker 2: and I'll tell you what I think is gonna happen,

1366
01:09:18,160 --> 01:09:20,240
Speaker 2: because now that we've covered this game, and we both

1367
01:09:20,360 --> 01:09:23,040
Speaker 2: like Ohio State to advance, and if you want to

1368
01:09:23,040 --> 01:09:24,519
Speaker 2: do a little preview for next week, and I don't

1369
01:09:24,520 --> 01:09:27,240
Speaker 2: want to ruin next week's pod. If Texas is getting

1370
01:09:27,240 --> 01:09:28,760
Speaker 2: torn up over the middle by Clemson, and I think

1371
01:09:28,760 --> 01:09:30,559
Speaker 2: they're gonna torn up over the middle by Arizona State

1372
01:09:30,600 --> 01:09:33,760
Speaker 2: and survive, you're in bad shape heading up against Ohio State.

1373
01:09:33,920 --> 01:09:35,519
Speaker 6: You are in bad shape in the Cotton Bowl.

1374
01:09:35,680 --> 01:09:37,120
Speaker 2: So I think we need to talk about this game

1375
01:09:37,120 --> 01:09:38,519
Speaker 2: because I think this is who's going to be the

1376
01:09:38,600 --> 01:09:40,800
Speaker 2: one that plays in the national type of game.

1377
01:09:41,439 --> 01:09:42,880
Speaker 1: All right, So to see all all of state Sugar

1378
01:09:42,920 --> 01:09:47,519
Speaker 1: Bowl eight forty five Eastern on Newsday on ESPN, Notre

1379
01:09:47,640 --> 01:09:49,360
Speaker 1: Dame and Georgia. Georgia is a one and a half

1380
01:09:49,400 --> 01:09:50,720
Speaker 1: point favorite total forty five.

1381
01:09:51,240 --> 01:09:55,040
Speaker 4: This Sugar Bowl, our assembolt in the tunnel and the

1382
01:09:55,120 --> 01:09:56,559
Speaker 4: crowd is coming to its feet.

1383
01:09:56,800 --> 01:09:58,439
Speaker 1: You'll hear a roar that will.

1384
01:09:58,400 --> 01:10:01,479
Speaker 3: Knock one cones on a fifty miles away.

1385
01:10:02,560 --> 01:10:06,240
Speaker 1: Game is in New Orleans, Louisiana. It's a popular spot,

1386
01:10:06,840 --> 01:10:08,879
Speaker 1: kind of touristy, but it holds up. Go to Parkway

1387
01:10:09,400 --> 01:10:13,320
Speaker 1: Bakery for your po boys, fried shrimp bread pudding, right, Yeah,

1388
01:10:13,360 --> 01:10:14,759
Speaker 1: well you can throw in a suggestion.

1389
01:10:15,080 --> 01:10:18,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean for anybody that doesn't know. I've been

1390
01:10:18,640 --> 01:10:20,479
Speaker 2: going to New Orleans since i was eighteen years old.

1391
01:10:21,439 --> 01:10:23,479
Speaker 2: Aaron Rose is the bar. It's on the corner of

1392
01:10:24,120 --> 01:10:25,200
Speaker 2: Kanti and Bourbon.

1393
01:10:25,680 --> 01:10:26,400
Speaker 6: It is small.

1394
01:10:26,560 --> 01:10:29,320
Speaker 2: It's tiny. It's about the size of a hotel room.

1395
01:10:29,439 --> 01:10:33,280
Speaker 2: They will pack at least fifty people in there. Everybody

1396
01:10:33,360 --> 01:10:35,680
Speaker 2: that covers the Big Game, when I was at the

1397
01:10:35,720 --> 01:10:38,160
Speaker 2: Final Four, when I've been to Bowl games, no matter

1398
01:10:38,240 --> 01:10:43,439
Speaker 2: what I've been to, production crews, beat reporters, media, everybody

1399
01:10:43,520 --> 01:10:46,200
Speaker 2: that comes in as a tourist that knows New Orleans

1400
01:10:46,640 --> 01:10:49,280
Speaker 2: goes to Aaron Rose. And then if you can find

1401
01:10:49,320 --> 01:10:51,760
Speaker 2: the Dungeon and they'll let you in, you should find

1402
01:10:51,800 --> 01:10:53,840
Speaker 2: the Dungeon as a bar because it's a place only

1403
01:10:53,920 --> 01:10:56,160
Speaker 2: for people that locally worked in New Orleans and it

1404
01:10:56,240 --> 01:10:59,080
Speaker 2: has a headcount of only allowing twenty people in the door.

1405
01:10:59,479 --> 01:11:02,400
Speaker 2: It's the most amazing underground bar right there off of

1406
01:11:02,439 --> 01:11:05,880
Speaker 2: Bourbon int Assan. So those are my two bar recommendations.

1407
01:11:05,960 --> 01:11:07,920
Speaker 2: New Orleans is a town I've been in at least

1408
01:11:07,960 --> 01:11:09,840
Speaker 2: two dozen times, and so I just wanted to throw

1409
01:11:09,880 --> 01:11:10,519
Speaker 2: those two out there.

1410
01:11:11,640 --> 01:11:16,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you got to hear yourself Beignets. What is

1411
01:11:16,720 --> 01:11:19,679
Speaker 1: the popular spot is Cafe Dumont and then a pope boy.

1412
01:11:19,600 --> 01:11:19,960
Speaker 6: Don't go there.

1413
01:11:20,000 --> 01:11:21,960
Speaker 2: Don't go there, Go to Cafe Beignets. It has a

1414
01:11:22,240 --> 01:11:24,360
Speaker 2: live jazz band, and no one goes there because they

1415
01:11:24,360 --> 01:11:26,519
Speaker 2: all go to Cafe Dumont. Go to Cafe Bennets. Get

1416
01:11:26,560 --> 01:11:28,440
Speaker 2: your live jazz and get your Beignes.

1417
01:11:29,080 --> 01:11:31,880
Speaker 1: All right. So getting into the game, Gunner Stockton will

1418
01:11:31,920 --> 01:11:34,400
Speaker 1: make his first career start in the college football playoff.

1419
01:11:36,200 --> 01:11:38,800
Speaker 1: So I don't know what to expect here. I do

1420
01:11:38,920 --> 01:11:41,519
Speaker 1: think Georgia probably benefited more than any team from the buy.

1421
01:11:42,760 --> 01:11:44,559
Speaker 1: They were dealing with a lot of injuries all over.

1422
01:11:45,160 --> 01:11:46,559
Speaker 1: I think they're going to come in here in healthy,

1423
01:11:46,760 --> 01:11:51,080
Speaker 1: fresh and you had time to work in a new

1424
01:11:51,160 --> 01:11:54,160
Speaker 1: offense and you have a noted ante and it's not

1425
01:11:54,200 --> 01:11:56,479
Speaker 1: gonna know what to expect, right, So there's some uncertainty here.

1426
01:11:56,880 --> 01:11:58,439
Speaker 1: What's this offense going to look like? It's not like

1427
01:11:58,520 --> 01:12:01,160
Speaker 1: they have a lot of tape on what this OFFENSEI

1428
01:12:01,160 --> 01:12:04,360
Speaker 1: w okay, So I do think Dubai actually worked in

1429
01:12:04,520 --> 01:12:07,400
Speaker 1: George's favor here more so than maybe it did for

1430
01:12:07,520 --> 01:12:12,479
Speaker 1: other teams. I think, having said that, what do we

1431
01:12:12,560 --> 01:12:15,160
Speaker 1: expect from Notre Dame? They're gonna play They're probably gonna

1432
01:12:15,160 --> 01:12:18,439
Speaker 1: play it a lot of man cover one single I

1433
01:12:18,560 --> 01:12:21,559
Speaker 1: safety with the Watts back there, and Georgia doesn't really

1434
01:12:21,600 --> 01:12:26,080
Speaker 1: have man beaters A receiver's noo Riley Mills for Notre Dame,

1435
01:12:26,120 --> 01:12:29,400
Speaker 1: which does hurt a bit up front. So what do

1436
01:12:29,479 --> 01:12:30,960
Speaker 1: I think George is gonna do. I think they're gonna

1437
01:12:31,000 --> 01:12:32,959
Speaker 1: run the ball a toime. I think it's gonna be ETN.

1438
01:12:33,720 --> 01:12:36,960
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be Gunner Stockton design runs. They

1439
01:12:37,000 --> 01:12:41,320
Speaker 1: were so inconsistent running the ball this year, and Notre

1440
01:12:41,400 --> 01:12:43,640
Speaker 1: Dame's gonna sell out. I think to stop it and

1441
01:12:43,720 --> 01:12:48,920
Speaker 1: trust their corners. But does like a running quarter, a

1442
01:12:48,960 --> 01:12:53,920
Speaker 1: more mobile quarterback, ETN back and then maybe a healthier

1443
01:12:53,920 --> 01:12:55,760
Speaker 1: offensive line, does it lead to better results? Like the

1444
01:12:56,080 --> 01:13:00,920
Speaker 1: inconsistency that Georgia rush offense really puzzled me here. On

1445
01:13:01,000 --> 01:13:04,160
Speaker 1: the other side, I I mean maybe they go to

1446
01:13:04,240 --> 01:13:06,920
Speaker 1: like more multiple tight end sets, just go like heavier

1447
01:13:07,000 --> 01:13:10,599
Speaker 1: sets and just try to power power away this game.

1448
01:13:11,240 --> 01:13:13,400
Speaker 1: On the other side, I don't see the Notre Dame

1449
01:13:13,439 --> 01:13:16,519
Speaker 1: offense doing much. They're probably you gotta use Leonard's legs.

1450
01:13:16,520 --> 01:13:20,479
Speaker 1: It's the Georgia defense. Mobile quarterbacks can give them problems,

1451
01:13:21,040 --> 01:13:23,920
Speaker 1: but this Georgia defensive line, the defensive front should be healthy.

1452
01:13:24,280 --> 01:13:27,519
Speaker 1: I think they can stop the interior run game of

1453
01:13:27,600 --> 01:13:31,000
Speaker 1: Notre Dame, and they might even be able to dedicate

1454
01:13:31,080 --> 01:13:33,200
Speaker 1: more resources to the run game, which usually they don't.

1455
01:13:33,640 --> 01:13:36,040
Speaker 1: But I don't see Notre Dame's receivers doing much on

1456
01:13:36,120 --> 01:13:39,799
Speaker 1: the outside. I think they can get pressure on Leonard

1457
01:13:40,040 --> 01:13:42,479
Speaker 1: without blitzing on passing downs, and that's when Leonard really

1458
01:13:42,520 --> 01:13:44,200
Speaker 1: falls apart. I think they're gonna play a lot of

1459
01:13:44,240 --> 01:13:48,960
Speaker 1: zone on the back end. Leonard struggles there. I this

1460
01:13:49,200 --> 01:13:51,439
Speaker 1: to me now, if this has got back up to

1461
01:13:51,520 --> 01:13:54,960
Speaker 1: forty five, I don't know what's gonna happen from a side,

1462
01:13:55,040 --> 01:13:56,320
Speaker 1: just like I don't know who's going to win this game,

1463
01:13:56,360 --> 01:13:59,719
Speaker 1: because I don't know what to expect from Stockton. Stockton

1464
01:13:59,760 --> 01:14:03,000
Speaker 1: could look, they could scheme up some really good stuff

1465
01:14:03,000 --> 01:14:07,000
Speaker 1: that doesn't have on tape, and so there's a lot

1466
01:14:07,040 --> 01:14:10,280
Speaker 1: more variance to the Georgia offense. Stockton also could be

1467
01:14:10,320 --> 01:14:13,240
Speaker 1: terrible his first start. He could have a We already

1468
01:14:13,280 --> 01:14:15,439
Speaker 1: saw him have that terrible pick against Texas.

1469
01:14:15,720 --> 01:14:16,640
Speaker 6: Let me ask you this as you go.

1470
01:14:17,200 --> 01:14:20,320
Speaker 2: Why was Kirby so committed to Carson Beck? Is it

1471
01:14:20,360 --> 01:14:22,599
Speaker 2: because of how bad Gunner Stockton is? Or is I mean,

1472
01:14:22,600 --> 01:14:25,360
Speaker 2: I've never seen the commitment to Beck was insane and

1473
01:14:25,840 --> 01:14:26,839
Speaker 2: it had to do with Stockton?

1474
01:14:26,920 --> 01:14:31,519
Speaker 1: Right, could be? Yeah, could have played a part. So,

1475
01:14:32,000 --> 01:14:33,639
Speaker 1: but I don't ever really know what to expect from

1476
01:14:33,680 --> 01:14:36,760
Speaker 1: a side perspective. I think this is a toss up game.

1477
01:14:37,960 --> 01:14:40,479
Speaker 1: The one thing I'm confident in is I don't think

1478
01:14:41,600 --> 01:14:46,840
Speaker 1: like I can't see Notre Dame scoring more than twenty

1479
01:14:46,920 --> 01:14:49,160
Speaker 1: one points in this game. And I think Kirby, you

1480
01:14:49,160 --> 01:14:50,880
Speaker 1: will have a really good defensive game plan. By the way,

1481
01:14:50,920 --> 01:14:54,320
Speaker 1: you have two really really really good defensive coordinators who

1482
01:14:54,439 --> 01:14:56,800
Speaker 1: are also going to make really, really really good adjustments.

1483
01:14:57,760 --> 01:14:59,760
Speaker 1: So I don't know if I'm going Notre Dame team

1484
01:14:59,760 --> 01:15:04,680
Speaker 1: total under or game total under forty five. I know

1485
01:15:05,760 --> 01:15:10,720
Speaker 1: it's fast track this game to me as like it's

1486
01:15:10,760 --> 01:15:15,360
Speaker 1: first the twenty wins I'll call. But I'll call it.

1487
01:15:17,600 --> 01:15:19,720
Speaker 1: I mean, I think this is like twenty Yeah, I'm

1488
01:15:19,720 --> 01:15:21,960
Speaker 1: gonna say. I'm gonna say final score twenty to seventeen.

1489
01:15:22,120 --> 01:15:25,360
Speaker 1: Somebody I don't know yet, and I don't think I'm

1490
01:15:25,400 --> 01:15:28,080
Speaker 1: gonna have a strong take on the side, So curious

1491
01:15:28,080 --> 01:15:28,679
Speaker 1: to get your thoughts.

1492
01:15:28,760 --> 01:15:30,320
Speaker 6: What do you think I do have a strong take

1493
01:15:30,360 --> 01:15:30,760
Speaker 6: on the side.

1494
01:15:30,760 --> 01:15:33,760
Speaker 2: I'm taking every single point I can get with Notre Dame,

1495
01:15:33,920 --> 01:15:36,240
Speaker 2: not like Ohio State, and just buying the money line.

1496
01:15:36,360 --> 01:15:38,280
Speaker 6: I need that point in a half a right. I

1497
01:15:38,320 --> 01:15:39,320
Speaker 6: think it's going to evaporate.

1498
01:15:39,360 --> 01:15:41,880
Speaker 2: I think you're eventually gonna come up to basically minus

1499
01:15:41,920 --> 01:15:44,280
Speaker 2: one ten on both sides. And I think, you know,

1500
01:15:44,520 --> 01:15:46,280
Speaker 2: the Gunner Stockton thing, I think a lot of a

1501
01:15:46,320 --> 01:15:48,080
Speaker 2: lot of will let a lot of other people talk.

1502
01:15:47,920 --> 01:15:49,240
Speaker 6: About that, but you just don't know.

1503
01:15:49,720 --> 01:15:53,240
Speaker 2: I mean, he's got, you know what, five designed rushing

1504
01:15:53,240 --> 01:15:55,600
Speaker 2: attempts for twenty three yards against Texas. A fumble was

1505
01:15:55,640 --> 01:15:57,320
Speaker 2: mixed in there. We're not going to base an entire

1506
01:15:57,400 --> 01:16:00,479
Speaker 2: podcast on a little sample size like that. Twenty five

1507
01:16:00,560 --> 01:16:02,720
Speaker 2: of thirty two in passing this year, in garbage time,

1508
01:16:02,760 --> 01:16:04,360
Speaker 2: he has yet to record a TD or a big

1509
01:16:04,400 --> 01:16:06,640
Speaker 2: time throw. We're not going to base our opinion on that,

1510
01:16:06,960 --> 01:16:10,559
Speaker 2: but I think you're right, Trevor Eten should absolutely cook here.

1511
01:16:10,640 --> 01:16:13,639
Speaker 2: Notre Dame has been horrific against inside zone forty three

1512
01:16:13,680 --> 01:16:16,240
Speaker 2: percent success right, I thought Indiana would take advantage of that.

1513
01:16:16,479 --> 01:16:17,200
Speaker 6: Who did take.

1514
01:16:17,040 --> 01:16:19,080
Speaker 2: Advantage of that Notre Dame defense on the inside?

1515
01:16:19,640 --> 01:16:21,400
Speaker 6: Usc USC ran.

1516
01:16:21,400 --> 01:16:24,519
Speaker 2: Inside zone for fifty nine percent success rate, seven point

1517
01:16:24,600 --> 01:16:27,240
Speaker 2: five yards per play on the ground, and they were

1518
01:16:27,320 --> 01:16:31,400
Speaker 2: never stuffed. Eighteen percent of rushing attempts by USC were stuffed.

1519
01:16:31,520 --> 01:16:34,160
Speaker 2: The national averages thirty percent. So you know, sorry about

1520
01:16:34,200 --> 01:16:37,679
Speaker 2: Mills now either right, and Mills is gone. Howard Cross

1521
01:16:37,720 --> 01:16:39,880
Speaker 2: came back. Don't know if he's playing at full strength,

1522
01:16:39,960 --> 01:16:42,240
Speaker 2: But now we've got to go and get Gabriel Rubio

1523
01:16:42,400 --> 01:16:44,679
Speaker 2: to play defensive tackle now that Riley Mills has gone.

1524
01:16:45,400 --> 01:16:48,680
Speaker 2: Rubio's huge six' five three. Sixteen he's about the same

1525
01:16:48,720 --> 01:16:51,840
Speaker 2: size As Riley, mills but he was probably a backup

1526
01:16:51,880 --> 01:16:53,559
Speaker 2: for a. Reason so that's the number maybe you want

1527
01:16:53,560 --> 01:16:55,720
Speaker 2: to watch on the defensive line For Notre. Dame SO

1528
01:16:55,840 --> 01:16:57,519
Speaker 2: i do Think trevor Et in is going to have

1529
01:16:57,560 --> 01:17:00,639
Speaker 2: a lot of success moving the ball. Here as, DEFENSE

1530
01:17:00,640 --> 01:17:02,920
Speaker 2: i think is just the ripe to be taken advantage

1531
01:17:02,960 --> 01:17:06,519
Speaker 2: of over the, middle And etn had his highest yards

1532
01:17:06,600 --> 01:17:11,000
Speaker 2: after contact Against texas since The auburn game In week.

1533
01:17:11,080 --> 01:17:11,800
Speaker 1: Six he is.

1534
01:17:11,960 --> 01:17:15,439
Speaker 2: Healthy so this is all about offensive, finishing, drives red

1535
01:17:15,560 --> 01:17:17,760
Speaker 2: zone play, calling and that's WHERE i Think Notre dame

1536
01:17:17,800 --> 01:17:19,680
Speaker 2: has a little bit of advantage on this. Side Notre

1537
01:17:19,760 --> 01:17:23,720
Speaker 2: dame's red zone defense ninth in defensive red zone. Efficiency,

1538
01:17:23,840 --> 01:17:25,760
Speaker 2: YES i know they're Missing Riley, mills but they also

1539
01:17:25,840 --> 01:17:28,800
Speaker 2: Missed Howard cross for most for like the last five. Weeks, Also,

1540
01:17:29,520 --> 01:17:32,360
Speaker 2: georgia you, know BEFORE i go to this side the,

1541
01:17:32,360 --> 01:17:36,679
Speaker 2: ball you're Expecting Gunner stockton to come in and throw

1542
01:17:37,320 --> 01:17:40,120
Speaker 2: to a set of wide receivers that lead the nation and.

1543
01:17:40,200 --> 01:17:41,800
Speaker 6: Drops are you kidding?

1544
01:17:41,880 --> 01:17:44,600
Speaker 2: Me we're gonna have a quarterback that's never played and

1545
01:17:44,720 --> 01:17:47,439
Speaker 2: we're gonna throw them to these. Receivers Arian, Smith Dominic

1546
01:17:47,520 --> 01:17:49,840
Speaker 2: love At Dylan bell have combined for twenty drops this.

1547
01:17:49,960 --> 01:17:52,720
Speaker 2: Season georgia is a team leads the nation higher than

1548
01:17:52,840 --> 01:17:55,880
Speaker 2: UMass it, drops and we're gonna have to say That

1549
01:17:56,000 --> 01:17:59,080
Speaker 2: Gunner stockton can throw to. THEM i will believe it

1550
01:17:59,120 --> 01:18:01,320
Speaker 2: WHEN i see, it especially Against Notre, dame who ranks

1551
01:18:01,479 --> 01:18:04,720
Speaker 2: number one IN pff and defensive pastic success. Rates So

1552
01:18:04,800 --> 01:18:08,320
Speaker 2: trevor etn or nothing for The Georgia. Bulldogs you go

1553
01:18:08,439 --> 01:18:10,519
Speaker 2: to the other. Side this is this is WHERE i

1554
01:18:10,560 --> 01:18:12,679
Speaker 2: think The evangers, are AND i think there's a couple

1555
01:18:12,760 --> 01:18:14,600
Speaker 2: of players that not a lot of people are not

1556
01:18:14,680 --> 01:18:15,400
Speaker 2: really paying attention.

1557
01:18:15,520 --> 01:18:17,519
Speaker 6: To Notre dame runs that heavy inside.

1558
01:18:17,600 --> 01:18:19,799
Speaker 2: ZONE i, MEAN i could give you the Whole indiana

1559
01:18:19,880 --> 01:18:21,760
Speaker 2: handicap about AND i could give you the Whole army

1560
01:18:21,840 --> 01:18:24,240
Speaker 2: handicap about HOW i ranted and raved about how MUCH

1561
01:18:24,280 --> 01:18:27,439
Speaker 2: i Love Notre dame and their rushing. Attack, Well georgia's

1562
01:18:27,600 --> 01:18:30,679
Speaker 2: pretty average against inside. ZONE i have a small NEGATIVE.

1563
01:18:30,680 --> 01:18:33,720
Speaker 2: Epa they can't allow a couple of explosives, again and

1564
01:18:33,760 --> 01:18:37,840
Speaker 2: when they run up against man, concepts it's still about

1565
01:18:37,880 --> 01:18:40,200
Speaker 2: fifty percent success. Rate so there's no real big thing

1566
01:18:40,240 --> 01:18:42,160
Speaker 2: For Jeremiah love to get through the line and you

1567
01:18:42,240 --> 01:18:45,639
Speaker 2: see a bunch of. Explosives georgia's thirty six and defensive

1568
01:18:45,680 --> 01:18:48,519
Speaker 2: rushing success, rate but they're sixty second in stuff. Rate

1569
01:18:48,920 --> 01:18:51,400
Speaker 2: Notre dame should own the offensive. Line and you, say,

1570
01:18:51,439 --> 01:18:54,519
Speaker 2: well you, know what are the injury SITUATIONS i think

1571
01:18:54,520 --> 01:18:57,360
Speaker 2: people Are if you read the practice, reports you AND

1572
01:18:57,439 --> 01:19:00,320
Speaker 2: i podcasted In, july it talked about How Notre dames

1573
01:19:00,400 --> 01:19:02,960
Speaker 2: offensive line was going to be led by An All american,

1574
01:19:03,080 --> 01:19:07,519
Speaker 2: Freshman Charles. Jagasaw he had a torn. Pectoral never saw,

1575
01:19:07,600 --> 01:19:10,519
Speaker 2: this never saw any playing time this. Season it's actually

1576
01:19:11,080 --> 01:19:13,240
Speaker 2: called me Off Notre dame Against TEXAS a AND m

1577
01:19:13,640 --> 01:19:16,120
Speaker 2: in the opening game of the. Season guess, what he's.

1578
01:19:16,200 --> 01:19:19,160
Speaker 2: Healthy he's practicing for The Sugar. Bowl so a Preseason

1579
01:19:19,240 --> 01:19:22,120
Speaker 2: All american left tackle blindside tackle is going to be

1580
01:19:22,240 --> 01:19:27,200
Speaker 2: there when you get past. THAT i think the mobile

1581
01:19:27,320 --> 01:19:31,120
Speaker 2: quarterback issue is a serious problem For. Georgia let's look

1582
01:19:31,120 --> 01:19:34,280
Speaker 2: at some history. Here Georgia tech eight. OVERTIMES i BELIEVE

1583
01:19:34,320 --> 01:19:36,040
Speaker 2: i had so much, WINE i can't remember the eighth.

1584
01:19:36,080 --> 01:19:38,800
Speaker 2: Overtime forty seven, carries two hundred and sixty yards and

1585
01:19:38,880 --> 01:19:42,200
Speaker 2: three touchdowns For Georgia. Tech on the, Ground Haines king

1586
01:19:42,280 --> 01:19:45,240
Speaker 2: had one hundred and ten yards in three. Tds what

1587
01:19:45,280 --> 01:19:45,680
Speaker 2: are we doing?

1588
01:19:45,720 --> 01:19:46,400
Speaker 6: Here you want me to go?

1589
01:19:46,520 --> 01:19:50,880
Speaker 2: Farther UMass aj Hasse hasten three rushing attempts for fifty,

1590
01:19:50,960 --> 01:19:54,840
Speaker 2: Yards Jackson dart eight to, fifty And Jalen milroe absolutely

1591
01:19:55,080 --> 01:19:58,559
Speaker 2: went ape. Shit On september twenty, eighth sixteen rushes one

1592
01:19:58,640 --> 01:20:01,800
Speaker 2: hundred and seventeen yards and two. Tds you're telling Me

1593
01:20:01,920 --> 01:20:04,400
Speaker 2: Riley leonard and his ten rushing attempts per game and

1594
01:20:04,479 --> 01:20:07,000
Speaker 2: he averages six point three per carry is not going

1595
01:20:07,080 --> 01:20:09,960
Speaker 2: to get over sixty here a RUSHING td in ten

1596
01:20:10,080 --> 01:20:13,280
Speaker 2: of thirteen games this. Season this is a serious. PROBLEM

1597
01:20:13,520 --> 01:20:15,960
Speaker 2: i know the health Of georgia should be better than

1598
01:20:16,040 --> 01:20:18,719
Speaker 2: it ever has, been but these kids just haven't shown

1599
01:20:18,760 --> 01:20:22,639
Speaker 2: it all. Year there's another problem, here. Right jordan Face

1600
01:20:22,720 --> 01:20:24,680
Speaker 2: on was a walk on freshman last year For Notre.

1601
01:20:24,800 --> 01:20:27,200
Speaker 2: Dame this, season he had an ankle. Sprain he just

1602
01:20:27,320 --> 01:20:29,880
Speaker 2: he dealt with. It the numbers weren't. Good he finally

1603
01:20:29,920 --> 01:20:34,360
Speaker 2: showed up Against indiana full. Strength Riley leonard gave him nine.

1604
01:20:34,439 --> 01:20:37,280
Speaker 2: Targets he had thirteen targets in the previous four. Games

1605
01:20:37,400 --> 01:20:42,160
Speaker 2: Riley leonard nine targets Against, indiana seven catches eighty nine

1606
01:20:42,240 --> 01:20:45,200
Speaker 2: yards all at the white out. Position he raised his

1607
01:20:45,280 --> 01:20:47,760
Speaker 2: season yards per route round up to one point nine

1608
01:20:47,840 --> 01:20:50,720
Speaker 2: off that one. Game Notre dame has a little bit

1609
01:20:50,800 --> 01:20:53,439
Speaker 2: of a dimension of a passing game If Riley leonard needs.

1610
01:20:53,479 --> 01:20:56,599
Speaker 2: IT i don't See georgia defending mobile. Quarterbacks they haven't

1611
01:20:56,640 --> 01:20:58,639
Speaker 2: done it all. Season IF i just read off A UMass,

1612
01:20:58,720 --> 01:21:01,720
Speaker 2: stat that's pretty, bad all, Right and Now Notre dame

1613
01:21:01,760 --> 01:21:05,160
Speaker 2: actually has a little bit of a passing game working in.

1614
01:21:05,280 --> 01:21:07,800
Speaker 6: Here i'm not Saying georgia's.

1615
01:21:07,400 --> 01:21:09,519
Speaker 2: Defense isn't a major upgrade over all the teams THAT

1616
01:21:09,600 --> 01:21:12,599
Speaker 2: i just, mentioned But georgia just should not be allowing

1617
01:21:12,640 --> 01:21:16,160
Speaker 2: An UMass quarterback to go for fifty. Yards So i'm

1618
01:21:16,200 --> 01:21:17,920
Speaker 2: On Notre dame, here BUT i want all the points

1619
01:21:17,920 --> 01:21:20,040
Speaker 2: BECAUSE i agree with. You first to twenty, WINS i

1620
01:21:20,160 --> 01:21:22,120
Speaker 2: believe that's going to be The. Irish IF i can get,

1621
01:21:22,160 --> 01:21:24,200
Speaker 2: Too i'll take. That IF i can get, money line take.

1622
01:21:24,280 --> 01:21:26,160
Speaker 2: THAT i JUST i Like Notre dame here to.

1623
01:21:26,240 --> 01:21:28,880
Speaker 1: Advance one thing that wears me about the under and

1624
01:21:28,960 --> 01:21:31,200
Speaker 1: also For. Georgia it's a small, thing BUT i think

1625
01:21:31,240 --> 01:21:35,200
Speaker 1: the defenses are going to rule the. Day Brett, thorson

1626
01:21:36,040 --> 01:21:38,320
Speaker 1: there's stud punter WHO i think was the second best.

1627
01:21:38,360 --> 01:21:40,400
Speaker 1: PUNTER i THINK i had him a number two in

1628
01:21:40,479 --> 01:21:42,720
Speaker 1: the ray guy at THE usc punter who also got

1629
01:21:42,840 --> 01:21:45,280
Speaker 1: hurt in the ball game number was my number. One

1630
01:21:46,520 --> 01:21:49,400
Speaker 1: he's a, weapon he can flip, fields he doesn't allow any.

1631
01:21:49,479 --> 01:21:53,519
Speaker 1: Returns he's out for the. Year so does that hurt

1632
01:21:53,560 --> 01:21:57,599
Speaker 1: the field? Position which does wear me for the under

1633
01:21:58,240 --> 01:22:01,439
Speaker 1: could Help Notre dame what name as shaky special. Team

1634
01:22:02,360 --> 01:22:05,080
Speaker 1: there's some areas of weakness there. TOO i still don't.

1635
01:22:05,080 --> 01:22:07,559
Speaker 2: Trust there doesn't matter If Jermiah love's running ninety nine

1636
01:22:07,640 --> 01:22:08,559
Speaker 2: yard explosive rushing.

1637
01:22:08,640 --> 01:22:11,080
Speaker 1: Touchdowns by the, way, YEAH i mean, No david GETS

1638
01:22:11,120 --> 01:22:14,639
Speaker 1: i don't you take that. Away didn't have much success

1639
01:22:14,680 --> 01:22:16,080
Speaker 1: running the ball. THAT i think that's what it's gonna

1640
01:22:16,080 --> 01:22:21,360
Speaker 1: look like Against, georgia like they're gonna have. To we'll

1641
01:22:21,400 --> 01:22:23,599
Speaker 1: see If love can break. One he's certainly capable of doing.

1642
01:22:23,680 --> 01:22:27,080
Speaker 1: So BUT i think both teams are gonna rely on their.

1643
01:22:27,120 --> 01:22:30,200
Speaker 1: Backs BUT i just don't see a ton of explosive runs.

1644
01:22:30,240 --> 01:22:33,400
Speaker 1: Happening AND i think they're Both you're going to see

1645
01:22:33,600 --> 01:22:35,720
Speaker 1: two really good defensive. Coordinators are gonna have good game,

1646
01:22:35,720 --> 01:22:36,920
Speaker 1: plans BUT i think they'll be able to make good.

1647
01:22:36,920 --> 01:22:40,120
Speaker 1: ADJUSTMENTS i don't Think leonard and this these receivers are

1648
01:22:40,160 --> 01:22:43,719
Speaker 1: gonna hit a ton of. EXPLOSIVES i don't Think georgia,

1649
01:22:43,800 --> 01:22:47,200
Speaker 1: can AND i don't think That kirby and them are

1650
01:22:47,280 --> 01:22:51,479
Speaker 1: really gonna let him or want him to unless the

1651
01:22:51,520 --> 01:22:53,600
Speaker 1: game gets out of, hand then you have. To BUT

1652
01:22:53,680 --> 01:22:56,920
Speaker 1: i think it'll stay, close low scoring, Throughout SO i

1653
01:22:57,080 --> 01:22:58,640
Speaker 1: like the under should be a really good. Game BUT

1654
01:22:58,760 --> 01:23:01,240
Speaker 1: i think this is YOUR i think this is the

1655
01:23:01,320 --> 01:23:02,920
Speaker 1: under now that it's at forty, Five like that's the

1656
01:23:03,000 --> 01:23:05,320
Speaker 1: number THAT i. Wanted, yeah there were some books that

1657
01:23:05,400 --> 01:23:08,080
Speaker 1: came out with like forty, two forty, three AND i was,

1658
01:23:08,120 --> 01:23:10,559
Speaker 1: like that's too low on a fast, track but at forty,

1659
01:23:10,640 --> 01:23:15,960
Speaker 1: five AND i also like The Notre dame team total

1660
01:23:16,080 --> 01:23:20,360
Speaker 1: under at twenty one and above twenty, one they could

1661
01:23:20,400 --> 01:23:23,200
Speaker 1: easily win this. Game but LIKE i, SAID i think

1662
01:23:23,200 --> 01:23:24,920
Speaker 1: it's first of. TWENTY i even can see this game

1663
01:23:24,960 --> 01:23:29,080
Speaker 1: being like seventeen. Fourteen, yeah like this could look like

1664
01:23:29,120 --> 01:23:30,160
Speaker 1: the TEXT a AND M Notre dame.

1665
01:23:30,200 --> 01:23:33,880
Speaker 2: Game so now that we've discussed, THIS i feel like

1666
01:23:33,880 --> 01:23:35,519
Speaker 2: you're Leaning Notre dames because you love your.

1667
01:23:35,560 --> 01:23:38,600
Speaker 6: PUNTERS i truly have no.

1668
01:23:38,720 --> 01:23:41,560
Speaker 1: IDEA i truly. DON'T i don't even have a LIKE

1669
01:23:42,040 --> 01:23:45,120
Speaker 1: i usually have a gut, feel and, like all, right

1670
01:23:45,560 --> 01:23:47,519
Speaker 1: after Everything i've, watched DO i think is gonna? Win

1671
01:23:48,040 --> 01:23:51,200
Speaker 1: georgia is so hard to, crack, like and now you

1672
01:23:51,280 --> 01:23:53,880
Speaker 1: have a backup. Quarterback look At georgia's results this year

1673
01:23:54,560 --> 01:23:57,880
Speaker 1: like you did on a week to week, Basis, well

1674
01:23:58,160 --> 01:23:59,479
Speaker 1: you never knew what we were gonna.

1675
01:23:59,240 --> 01:24:02,360
Speaker 6: Get play In texas this, week so that's one.

1676
01:24:02,439 --> 01:24:05,479
Speaker 1: Thing so, yeah there there are an. Enigma george is an,

1677
01:24:05,600 --> 01:24:09,920
Speaker 1: enigma and now you have a new. Quarterback SO i

1678
01:24:10,439 --> 01:24:14,280
Speaker 1: truly have no. Idea SO i trust both defensive staffs

1679
01:24:14,920 --> 01:24:19,479
Speaker 1: and Both the advantage is both defensive personnel groups have

1680
01:24:20,439 --> 01:24:25,120
Speaker 1: over respective. Offenses and the key is that Like george

1681
01:24:25,240 --> 01:24:29,679
Speaker 1: is not gonna beat consistently Beat Notre dame's, corners which

1682
01:24:29,920 --> 01:24:32,519
Speaker 1: will enable them to just sell out against the, run

1683
01:24:32,720 --> 01:24:34,200
Speaker 1: WHICH i Think george is gonna lean. On AND i

1684
01:24:34,200 --> 01:24:38,640
Speaker 1: don't Think Notre dame can Attack georgia consistently downfield with their,

1685
01:24:38,720 --> 01:24:42,439
Speaker 1: receivers so it's gonna Allow georgia to dedicate more resources

1686
01:24:42,479 --> 01:24:44,559
Speaker 1: to the. RUN i also like the scheme That georgia

1687
01:24:44,600 --> 01:24:48,840
Speaker 1: plays Where Riley leonard struggles a bit more from a

1688
01:24:48,880 --> 01:24:51,680
Speaker 1: coverage perspective like, so and then they're gonna have these.

1689
01:24:51,720 --> 01:24:54,560
Speaker 1: Adjustments like the one THING i am confident in this,

1690
01:24:54,640 --> 01:24:56,560
Speaker 1: game which means it'll be thirty five thirty at the,

1691
01:24:56,600 --> 01:25:01,920
Speaker 1: half is that neither offense will be able to. Sustain,

1692
01:25:02,240 --> 01:25:04,880
Speaker 1: also finished DRIVES i don't, like this is gonna be

1693
01:25:05,000 --> 01:25:11,240
Speaker 1: like field, goals field position clock running, like so, yeah

1694
01:25:11,280 --> 01:25:13,519
Speaker 1: this Is i'm pretty confident in the, sunder which means

1695
01:25:13,560 --> 01:25:16,599
Speaker 1: it has no chance on a fast. Track but that's

1696
01:25:16,720 --> 01:25:18,800
Speaker 1: that's WHERE i really had no feel on the.

1697
01:25:18,880 --> 01:25:22,160
Speaker 2: Side so you mentioned you Think Ohio state it's going

1698
01:25:22,200 --> 01:25:24,040
Speaker 2: to win the national. TITLE i was waiting until we

1699
01:25:24,120 --> 01:25:25,600
Speaker 2: got done with The Sugar bowl at the very end

1700
01:25:25,640 --> 01:25:28,320
Speaker 2: of the, podcast AND i will leave THIS i have

1701
01:25:28,439 --> 01:25:30,080
Speaker 2: A georgia. Future it was the first bet THAT i

1702
01:25:30,200 --> 01:25:32,120
Speaker 2: made WHEN i walked out of The national title game

1703
01:25:32,160 --> 01:25:32,760
Speaker 2: In houston last.

1704
01:25:32,840 --> 01:25:34,200
Speaker 6: YEAR i, Said i'm Taking. Georgia they're the.

1705
01:25:34,240 --> 01:25:38,519
Speaker 2: One you know, Whatever, RIGHT i am going to be

1706
01:25:38,600 --> 01:25:41,000
Speaker 2: betting not Just Notre dame as a hedge to that

1707
01:25:41,160 --> 01:25:43,120
Speaker 2: to win the national, title BUT i am going to

1708
01:25:43,240 --> 01:25:45,080
Speaker 2: join you in this love Of Fio state And i'm

1709
01:25:45,120 --> 01:25:47,640
Speaker 2: going to find A Notre Dame Ohio state exact a

1710
01:25:47,720 --> 01:25:48,400
Speaker 2: box national.

1711
01:25:48,479 --> 01:25:50,240
Speaker 6: Championship, wow our.

1712
01:25:50,200 --> 01:26:04,200
Speaker 1: Frust is going to lose, it all, right that'll do

1713
01:26:04,320 --> 01:26:06,800
Speaker 1: it for. Us we're not done for the. Season we

1714
01:26:06,880 --> 01:26:10,880
Speaker 1: got a couple more, episodes starting with the semi final,

1715
01:26:10,920 --> 01:26:16,080
Speaker 1: preview which we will record Next. Tuesday but that'll wrap

1716
01:26:16,200 --> 01:26:20,679
Speaker 1: up the quarterfinal preview in addition to eight Other bowl

1717
01:26:20,760 --> 01:26:23,559
Speaker 1: games the rest of the. Week Thanks colin for joining.

1718
01:26:23,600 --> 01:26:27,000
Speaker 1: Me thanks to our Producer Matt, mitchell Most. Spoilant thanks

1719
01:26:27,040 --> 01:26:28,080
Speaker 1: to all of you for joining. Us make sure you

1720
01:26:28,080 --> 01:26:30,080
Speaker 1: subscribe On subscribe to scribe to our friend Ton. Enemy

1721
01:26:30,600 --> 01:26:32,599
Speaker 1: leave a five star review really helps us. Out subscribe

1722
01:26:32,600 --> 01:26:35,400
Speaker 1: to OUR bboc YouTube. Channel thanks again for tuning. In

1723
01:26:36,280 --> 01:26:39,960
Speaker 1: enjoy the rest of all season and The College wall playoff.

1724
01:26:40,040 --> 01:26:44,520
Speaker 1: Quarterfinals we'll see you next week as we break down the. Semifinals.

1725
01:26:44,880 --> 01:26:48,840
Speaker 1: Cheers it's the most wonderful.

1726
01:26:49,040 --> 01:26:54,679
Speaker 8: Time this the most, time all the most.

1727
01:26:56,120 --> 01:27:10,960
Speaker 5: Time Action network reminds you please gamble. Responsibly if you

1728
01:27:11,280 --> 01:27:14,000
Speaker 5: or someone you care about has a gambling, problem help

1729
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Speaker 5: is available twenty four to seven at one eight Hundred

1730
01:27:16,840 --> 01:27:17,240
Speaker 5: gambler