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Speaker 1: Hello friends, and welcome into Betting Pro's College football Early

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Speaker 1: Line look Ahead show. I am Chris Welsh. I was

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Speaker 1: in here last week from here this week, joined by

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Speaker 1: the dynamic duo of Thorne Eistrom and Eric Froton. You

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Speaker 1: can find both of them at thor ku cef Froton

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Speaker 1: on the Twitter, the X whatever it is. Holy hell,

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Speaker 1: what a week in week one of a full slate

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Speaker 1: of college football action. We are going to be looking

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Speaker 1: at the early lines of everything you need to know

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Speaker 1: for week two, so make sure you're strapped in and

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Speaker 1: you're going. Gentlemen, how about Colorado and a plus six

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Speaker 1: fifty money line that you could have laid down? It

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Speaker 1: was a crazy week in week one with lines to

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Speaker 1: insane money lines. Or I placed a live bet on

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Speaker 1: Colorado around halftime, didn't get the amazing bets that you placed.

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Speaker 1: And wasn't it your dear friend Mike that said only

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Speaker 1: an idiot was going to go at twenty and a

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Speaker 1: half on Colorado. That's a you got some fat pockets

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Speaker 1: for an idiot?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I sure did you know?

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Speaker 3: It's interesting because we've seen, you know, the one year

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Speaker 3: at data we have on this that the sharps in

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Speaker 3: the market appear to be lower, or not even appear

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Speaker 3: to be they just are lower on the teams that

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Speaker 3: have the more roster turnover. But the point I was

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Speaker 3: trying to make in a couple of week lead up

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Speaker 3: to that game is at least based on the first

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Speaker 3: year of the transfer portal being open and the open

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Speaker 3: transfer between the teams, it doesn't matter as much how

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Speaker 3: many transfers you took in or lost, not as much

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Speaker 3: as the talent you took in against what you lost.

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Speaker 3: And so Colorado, a team that was one and eleven

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Speaker 3: last year, they added a metric ton of talent. We

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Speaker 3: knew that that that roster was going to be way,

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Speaker 3: way more talented, and I think the market was a

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Speaker 3: little bit too, especially in hindsight, too high on TCU

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Speaker 3: coming out their their national title run based on everything

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Speaker 3: that that they had lost. So I didn't have the

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Speaker 3: best day overall in my in my official picks, I

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Speaker 3: think I went three and six against the spread. There

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Speaker 3: was there was some monkey stuff going on in a

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Speaker 3: couple of those games, but did hit. Colorado got the

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Speaker 3: Colorado money line to bail me out, in addition to

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Speaker 3: the U Monroe money line over Army and that pick

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Speaker 3: in there, and then the player props as well. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: we had a while Week one Saturday, and it was crazy.

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Speaker 1: Just kind of in general, Eric, you and I were

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Speaker 1: talking about this before we started up the show. One

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Speaker 1: other thing to take. Obviously, Colorado kind of dominated one

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Speaker 1: thing you could have probably done and I don't know

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Speaker 1: if you did ended up doing it with Colorado as well.

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Speaker 1: But if you're looking for edges, you know, everybody kind

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Speaker 1: of disagrees, some don't like to play side, some are

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Speaker 1: playing overs with the new rules. But then there are

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Speaker 1: also actual player props and that was probably an advantage

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Speaker 1: that Week one gave to you and I imagine Colorado

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Speaker 1: Eric had a few of those advantages in the player

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Speaker 1: prop market as well.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely, and with SHADERA Sanders in Colorado in general,

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Speaker 4: it's been the entire market around that team has been

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Speaker 4: the roller coaster. They opened, you know, back in May

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Speaker 4: in terms of team total at five and a half

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Speaker 4: and was quickly bet down to three and a half

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Speaker 4: for wins, showing the little confidence than anybody had that

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Speaker 4: this team was going to turn it around in a

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Speaker 4: quick manner, which you know, to the to the markets,

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Speaker 4: uh credit, they were a historical bad team last year,

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Speaker 4: and you know, I try not to throw that around lightly.

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Speaker 4: That's that's that's real that this team was not competitive

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Speaker 4: in any way. So but as we talked about last

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Speaker 4: week on the show with Thor and I uh, these

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Speaker 4: ole miss usc LSU, they have used the portal to

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Speaker 4: bring in experience, talented players and immediately turn around the

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Speaker 4: roster composition of their teams. And what what is Dion

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Speaker 4: doing any different than they did? Just accepted doing it

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Speaker 4: at a more mass scale. It's the same principle and

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Speaker 4: the way we've seen those other teams thrive. And you

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Speaker 4: throw in Florida State in that too. I mean, look

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Speaker 4: at Jared Vertz, look at you know Robinson the year before,

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Speaker 4: you know, both first round d end So that's really

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Speaker 4: helped be an equalizer. But specifically with Shador, his market

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Speaker 4: opened at two twenty seven on the parlay props markets

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Speaker 4: and quickly spiked to the two forty range, and then

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Speaker 4: you know, it seemed somewhat settled until DraftKings came out

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Speaker 4: and opened them at one eighty three and a half

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Speaker 4: in his passing yardage scale, which is a shameful line

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Speaker 4: and somebody should be escorted out of the building with

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Speaker 4: their belongings in a box to explain to their bosses

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Speaker 4: why they lost them so much money just to me alone.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, I immediately threw my web, got right on

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Speaker 4: that place as much as I could. You saw it

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Speaker 4: eventually settle on game day at two and a half,

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Speaker 4: two ten and a half, which was still you're seeing

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Speaker 4: DraftKings allow you the ladder plays more often now it

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Speaker 4: was something that you could do with FanDuel last year.

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Speaker 4: In these early going you're seeing depth chart mistakes that

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Speaker 4: are something, Hey, you throw fifty bucks twenty bucks and

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Speaker 4: you're getting four times your money, especially if you went

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Speaker 4: with Sanders. So I was two ten and I think

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Speaker 4: they have five hundred and sixty eight yards of total offense.

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Speaker 4: He threw for five yeah, ten, Yeah, I mean the

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Speaker 4: ladder you would have nuked it you were to max

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Speaker 4: that ladder out.

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Speaker 2: So you know, these are things to if.

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Speaker 4: You spot something you perceived to be a discrepancy in

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Speaker 4: the marketplace, don't be afraid to push your options out there.

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Speaker 4: And you have a lot of them now thanks to

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Speaker 4: you know, the expansion in people picking up props, so

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Speaker 4: I know they it was a tough market for a

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Speaker 4: lot of prognosticators on the sides and totals. But I

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Speaker 4: went eleven and three on my Saturday Morning NBC show

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Speaker 4: picks that were all prop oriented, So you can't complain

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Speaker 4: about that fifteen and five over off for the week

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Speaker 4: between columns and video plays, so seventy five percent, and

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Speaker 4: that's right along the sixty eight sixty nine percent that

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Speaker 4: I hit over the past four years. So it's a

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Speaker 4: very lucrative market and something you should all be paying

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Speaker 4: attention to if you were If you can't get it

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Speaker 4: on draftings or a traditional domestic marketplace, look it. Underdog

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Speaker 4: Sleeper even has them. Now, all right, you have Prize Picks,

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Speaker 4: which really was first and has an established business model.

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Speaker 4: You can get these parlay markets in a lot more

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Speaker 4: states that open things up and open yourself up to

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Speaker 4: more profitability in your gambling.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a lot of fluid. Be fluid in the

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Speaker 1: first couple of weeks because there's craziness, whether it is

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Speaker 1: sides overs adjusting to new rules, the clock not stopping.

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Speaker 1: We might talk about some of this in here, but

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Speaker 1: we're going to put week one behind us, and we

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Speaker 1: were taking a look at week two. This is the

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Speaker 1: look had early lines and you want to talk about

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Speaker 1: maybe someone need to be escorted out that might be

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Speaker 1: in play for the first game we're going to talk about,

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Speaker 1: which of course we're going to talk about Colorado, because

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Speaker 1: Colorado had some crazy swings. Also the early line going

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Speaker 1: into this game for this coming week, because that line

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Speaker 1: even into the end of that game, that TCU game

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Speaker 1: where Colorado said TCU that line had made a big move,

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Speaker 1: but some places didn't make that move. There was still

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Speaker 1: some big plus money out there on Colorado when that

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Speaker 1: game ended. But we are now sitting between a two

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Speaker 1: and a half to three point favorite Colorado for this

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Speaker 1: week going up against Nebraska. So Thor, let's start with

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Speaker 1: you about the matchup that everybody is going to be

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Speaker 1: locked into and probably maybe the biggest swing from you know,

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Speaker 1: Saturday morning to Saturday afternoon as far as spreads go,

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Speaker 1: as we are looking at the early line, was this Colorado.

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Speaker 3: Speaking of people getting fired the h so yesterday, you

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Speaker 3: know you're mentioning it was only one book where they

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Speaker 3: forgot to pull down the week two line, but it's

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Speaker 3: you know, this is another data point in support of

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Speaker 3: have a bunch of outs as far as your books go,

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Speaker 3: and don't fall asleep at the wheel on Saturdays, because

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Speaker 3: sometimes these books make mistakes and we got to pay

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Speaker 3: them ten percent for every bet anyway, so I'm not

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Speaker 3: apologizing if they lay it or you know, keep a

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Speaker 3: mistake line out there, don't pull something back that. So

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Speaker 3: Nebraska was they at my bookie was minus nine and

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Speaker 3: a half and the car Colorado you get nine and

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Speaker 3: a half and the money line was plus two to ninety.

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Speaker 3: I believe that thing was not only active during the

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Speaker 3: entire Colorado TCU game. I couldn't believe it. I just

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Speaker 3: kept betting, betting, betting, betting, betting, like I just couldn't

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Speaker 3: stop betting this, the same things over and over again.

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Speaker 3: They had the alternate lines where you could you could

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Speaker 3: get juice odds of bringing it down to Colorado plus

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Speaker 3: six and a half for down to plus plus three

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Speaker 3: and a half. And then after the game they still

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Speaker 3: hadn't pulled it down. So that's that's when I finally

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Speaker 3: put out the the bat signal to my Twitter, my

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Speaker 3: ex followers or whatever, and you know, it was like,

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Speaker 3: you know, everyone going and hit this thing. Within ten

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Speaker 3: minutes they had taken it down that's what you know

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Speaker 3: when everyone swarmed in. But you know, just you know again,

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Speaker 3: pay attention to your books and and the lines and

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Speaker 3: stuff while these games are going. Obviously Colorado comes out,

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Speaker 3: they're gonna be the biggest jumper in terms of power

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Speaker 3: rankings this week. We'll talk about the other one in

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Speaker 3: a bid here. But that line was way way off.

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Speaker 3: I knew the Colorado was going to open as a

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Speaker 3: favorite once it came back out again. When DraftKings put

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Speaker 3: it out last night again reopened at they had taken

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Speaker 3: it down. They reopened at Colorado minus two and a half.

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Speaker 3: In this game, Fandua had one and a half. A

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Speaker 3: lot of the other bucks were somewhere between that one

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Speaker 3: and a half two and a half. As we sit

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Speaker 3: here now recording this, this line has gotten to Colorado

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Speaker 3: minus three. I would suggest to people out there, this

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Speaker 3: line is not done moving yet.

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Speaker 2: It's not.

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Speaker 3: My adjusted line on this game is Colorado minus five

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Speaker 3: point four. I still think there's value at three, and

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Speaker 3: yesterday afternoon he could have gotten it plus nine and

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Speaker 3: a half the other way. But even where the line

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Speaker 3: is right now, that's when I would suggest to people

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Speaker 3: hit that one. Early I was at the Nebraska Minnesota

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Speaker 3: game on Thursday. I was in the building. I had

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Speaker 3: to see, you know, in Minneapolis. I had to see

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Speaker 3: Matt Rule's debut. Nebraska is going to have a decent

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Speaker 3: defense this year. They have good defensive coaches. They have

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Speaker 3: a couple of playmakers on that side of the ball.

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Speaker 3: The issue for Nebraska is they can't pass, and we

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Speaker 3: knew that that was going to be a problem the

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Speaker 3: second they offered a scholarship to Jeff Simms and told

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Speaker 3: Casey Thompson to hit the road. I think I might

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Speaker 3: have preferred Casey Thompson there. Jeff Simms certainly is a

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Speaker 3: better athlete, a very sleek I mean, you know, he's

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Speaker 3: a big lanky kid and he can move, but he

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Speaker 3: can't throw. He never has been able to a Georgia Tech.

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Speaker 3: That was always the bugaboo.

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Speaker 2: It has not changed.

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Speaker 3: He is all over the play, he doesn't have a

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Speaker 3: good arm, and then also the accuracy is literally all

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Speaker 3: over the place. So Nebraska's gonna have to cobble together

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Speaker 3: the run game between Sims's legs. That's the thing he's

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Speaker 3: valuable at. And you know the couple of sorted backs

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Speaker 3: they use, but they're not going to be able to

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Speaker 3: pass in this game. Colorado is going to do what

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Speaker 3: they did in the last game, and by the way,

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Speaker 3: what Sean Lewis has been doing his entire Sean Lewis,

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Speaker 3: the offensive coordinator there, came over from Kent State. He

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Speaker 3: was a disciple at Dino Babers. Dino Babers, his mentor

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Speaker 3: in terms of football was the Briles Is. So it's

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Speaker 3: that same system we've seen back in the day at Baylor,

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Speaker 3: where you spread the field and then you go, go, go, go, go,

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Speaker 3: sprinting back to the line. I was super impressed with

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Speaker 3: how cohesive Colorado's offense was in that system. An enormous

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Speaker 3: change from the watching paint dry in a wall Carl

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Speaker 3: Durrell offensive system we seen these last couple of years.

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Speaker 3: How cohesive the Buffaloes were right from the jump in

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Speaker 3: that hyper tempo system. Hand the ball back to the ref.

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Speaker 3: Everybody sprints up to the line. Now we all look

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Speaker 3: back in Unison to the coach who's given us the

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Speaker 3: play caff from the sideline. Colorado was humming and it

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Speaker 3: is going to be extremely difficult for Nebraska to stay

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Speaker 3: in this game once Colorado starts putting up the points

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Speaker 3: because you ain't holding them off the scoreboard.

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Speaker 1: One thing I'm curious about for Aton is there is

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Speaker 1: something to seeing a huge line from plus money to

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Speaker 1: minus money that can just give people like a shift

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Speaker 1: and knowing that had they paid attention on Saturday morning,

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Speaker 1: they could have got you know, plusant nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: I saw it at halftime pleasant nine and a half

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Speaker 1: against Nebraska, and then going to a field goal favorite

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Speaker 1: against Nebraska might just feel like, oh what can I

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Speaker 1: do with this? Do you feel like Thora saying that

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Speaker 1: there is still room to grow on this and are

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Speaker 1: comfortable with that two and a half three line with

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Speaker 1: Colorado after seeing him this week?

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Speaker 4: Well yeah, I mean, and you mentioned the money line.

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Speaker 4: It was plus three twenty at the it's zenith at

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Speaker 4: one point, I think it was a week before the

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Speaker 4: game or so on the seventeenth of August. Now at

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Speaker 4: minus one twenty two for Colorado, a stark turnal, not

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Speaker 4: high enough, not high enough, It's still, like said, a

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Speaker 4: great deal. And as Thora alluded to, you know Jeff

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Speaker 4: Simms at Georgia Tech, it was the same thing. You

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Speaker 4: watched him and he is a dynamic like literally you

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Speaker 4: see with his his height and and the way he's distributed,

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Speaker 4: the way he runs lamar esque like. He has that

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Speaker 4: ability to run where he is dynamic. He does not

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Speaker 4: have Lamar's ability to throw, however, and that was evident.

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Speaker 4: Eleven they only threw nineteen.

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Speaker 2: Sixty.

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Speaker 4: It's right, they had a sixty six percent run rate. Okay,

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Speaker 4: they were playing slows molasses. This was not the Scott Frost.

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Speaker 4: Let's try to be up tempo, let's let's let's.

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Speaker 2: Be spread, let's be cute.

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Speaker 4: No no, no, no no, this is back to its roots. Matt

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Speaker 4: ruhle uh you know, lunch pale. Three yards in the

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Speaker 4: cloud of dust, Nebraska football.

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Speaker 2: Frankly, you know. And and to the Deppian.

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Speaker 4: Said every time they they had to do that because

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Speaker 4: they only threw the ball nineteen times. Three of them

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Speaker 4: ended up in Minnesota's arms. Okay, three of them were

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Speaker 4: interceptions forlor.

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Speaker 3: Got two of them Tyler Nuban, who should be in

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Speaker 3: the NFL.

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Speaker 4: One one of them was unreal too, that that donating

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Speaker 4: one where he was ranging over.

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Speaker 2: Oh my gosh, oh wow, instincts. Yeah, that is amazing.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, they and they lost Torell Smith to the

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Speaker 4: NFL draft. You know, their their top corner didn't matter,

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Speaker 4: like there was still Nebraska still petrified to throw against them.

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Speaker 4: But then you know, you look at Colorado, right, four

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Speaker 4: hundred yard receivers, three three wide receivers and a freshman

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Speaker 4: running back in Dylan Edwards on the other side, toy,

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Speaker 4: they ripped off eighty one place. Eighty one human were

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Speaker 4: run place as opposed to the sixty six percent of Nebraska.

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Speaker 4: So what I'm getting at here is something you talked

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Speaker 4: about in the open.

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Speaker 2: Well, despite the.

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Speaker 4: Fact we saw Colorado go nuclear all right, forty five

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Speaker 4: to forty two, I mean, does it does it get

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Speaker 4: any bigger than an eighty seven burger?

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Speaker 2: You know what I mean? When in terms of the

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Speaker 2: over under.

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Speaker 4: It was settled, it's sixty and a half on the

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Speaker 4: total afterwards, and where it sits now is fifty eight

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Speaker 4: and a half.

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Speaker 2: It's actually dropped by two.

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Speaker 4: Points because of the molasses like snail pace that we're

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Speaker 4: seeing from Nebraska. So I thought that was a really

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Speaker 4: interesting point. And front of me, I mean, Nebraska is

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Speaker 4: not gonna be able to play at that pace this

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Speaker 4: game because the Colorado's gonna score whether they like it

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Speaker 4: or not. I mean, they're not gonna be able to

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Speaker 4: stop that offense out right, so we're gonna have to

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Speaker 4: see some more juice, but you know, interesting development.

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Speaker 1: Therefore, it's an interesting team. It's gonna be a very

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Speaker 1: fun team for a lot of people to bet, and

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Speaker 1: there's gonna be a lot of action. I think some

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Speaker 1: of the books took in the most money line Colorado tickets.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it was nuts stuff this weekend. They're going

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Speaker 1: to be fun to continuously follow. Let's move to another game, though.

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Speaker 1: Let's go over to Notre Dame. Notre Dame is going

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Speaker 1: to be up against n C State here in week two,

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Speaker 1: and I think we've got a between seven and a

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Speaker 1: half eight early line. So thor, why don't we start

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Speaker 1: with you. We'll start with you on these so you

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Speaker 1: can go through your adjusted lines as well. Notre Dame

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Speaker 1: in C State. What do we think about this one?

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Speaker 3: I'm shureanson line value on Notre Dame with where this

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Speaker 3: line is. My line on this one is Notre Dame

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Speaker 3: minus ten point six NC State. I wasn't super duper

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Speaker 3: impressed in the first game. They're a team that brought

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Speaker 3: in a new offensive coordinator. Coordinator I like Robert and

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Speaker 3: I who had worked with Brennan Armstrong before Virginia. The

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Speaker 3: last time Brennan Armstrong was good. They'd bring in Brennan

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Speaker 3: Armstrong as well the quarterback that team, but they had

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Speaker 3: a lot of new pieces there. They try to remake

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Speaker 3: their wide receiving corps with help from the portal and

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Speaker 3: different stuff like this, and you're playing under the coach

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Speaker 3: for the first time.

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Speaker 2: They play Yukon in the opener and Yukon is salty again.

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Speaker 3: Yukon kept that thing within ten and it was close

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Speaker 3: until the very very end, when you know.

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Speaker 2: They were able to push it to double digits.

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Speaker 3: NC State whatever. I'm not high on them early on

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Speaker 3: in this season, and I was higher on Notre Dame

341
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Speaker 3: than the market this summer, I remain higher than the

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Speaker 3: market on Notre Dame. That team can play. Now they

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Speaker 3: addressed all the big weaknesses from last year's team, specifically

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Speaker 3: the aforementioned Drew Pine and quarterback play. You go from

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Speaker 3: him to a guy who at this point is he

346
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Speaker 3: might be in the top fifteen all time in FBS

347
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Speaker 3: passing yards now. Sam Hartman believe he was number nineteen

348
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Speaker 3: heading into the season, but you're going to see him

349
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Speaker 3: in the top five by the time that this season's done,

350
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Speaker 3: so you get that. We know that the defense is really, really,

351
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Speaker 3: really good. Shut up the lights on Navy. Notre Dame's

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Speaker 3: offensive line is really good estimate. I like him, and

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Speaker 3: the receiving corp is better than they've been given credit for.

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Speaker 3: In my opinion, they had some injuries last year, plus

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Speaker 3: they get those guys back.

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Speaker 2: Chris Tyree gets to move out to the slot. He

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Speaker 2: can do different things. He's a mover and whatnot. So

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Speaker 2: I'm showing line value on Notre Dame. That's, you know,

359
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Speaker 2: under ten. That's an early week bet that I would make.

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Speaker 1: Further, do you agree? Is this one that you want

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Speaker 1: to get in on now? Do you believe the early

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Speaker 1: the value line that Thor was talking about where there's

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Speaker 1: at least two points on value? Is this one that

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Speaker 1: you buy and that you would want to get in

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Speaker 1: early before that thing starts moving?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I Thor alluded to with Robert and I offensive

367
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Speaker 4: coordinator reunited and it was supposed to feel so good

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Speaker 4: with Brendan Armstrong. You got to remember his roots, you know.

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Speaker 4: By u followed Bronco Mendenhall over to UVA and the

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Speaker 4: genesis of Thor and I's relationship was on a over

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Speaker 4: a Twitter beef regarding Bryce Perkins, a Robert and I quarterback,

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Speaker 4: and about his efficacy in an eye system.

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Speaker 2: Let's say I.

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Speaker 4: Narrowly lost that particular Twitter beaf narrowly with my my

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Speaker 4: sentence at the time, at the time, the all the SEC,

376
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Speaker 4: all time leading touchdown passer single season, the great luck.

377
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Speaker 4: I narrowly lost it.

378
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Speaker 2: But the point is why I lost.

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Speaker 4: Robert and I was top five and pass attempts for

380
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Speaker 4: like five straight years. And then he comes out here

381
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Speaker 4: against the vaunted Yukon Huskies and let's just say, not

382
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Speaker 4: a lot of sizzle on that steak out of NC

383
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:27,240
Speaker 4: State twenty four to fourteen win. Armstrong, you know, did

384
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Speaker 4: a lot more running. He ran for ninety six yards

385
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Speaker 4: to two rushing touchdowns, only threw twenty six passes to

386
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Speaker 4: forty six rushes. They didn't exactly want to air it out.

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Speaker 4: One hundred and fifty five yards six yards per attempt,

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Speaker 4: even like this Issten This isn't the UVA Dontavian Wis

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Speaker 4: Billy Kemp, you know, Keeton Thompson. This isn't what I

390
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Speaker 4: was expecting out there. One hundred and fifty five yards.

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Speaker 4: Dude is old runner was two fifty five. That was

392
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Speaker 4: a very troubling showing for me. And that's for a

393
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Speaker 4: team that last year as we know, once Devin Leary

394
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Speaker 4: went down, it was they had trouble with a talented

395
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Speaker 4: four star and MJ.

396
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Speaker 2: Morris.

397
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Speaker 4: You know, Tim Beck got the blame now at cost

398
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Speaker 4: with Carolina, but hey, I mean, is no receiver eclipsed

399
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Speaker 4: thirty six yards and that was a true freshman and

400
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Speaker 4: Kevin conceptio like this. This is a team I have

401
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Speaker 4: concerns about, and I understand where Thor's going and I

402
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Speaker 4: will hardly agree.

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Speaker 1: of the early Saturday games and for the time we'll

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Speaker 1: start with you number well, at least going into the

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Speaker 1: week number fourteen, Utah going up against Baylor. So what

437
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:03,520
Speaker 1: say you, Froton, What side, what advantage? What do you

438
00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 1: think this line is gonna look like? Utah Baylor.

439
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 4: I just think we're gonna get a We're gonna get

440
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,480
Speaker 4: a movement here, and I don't think there's any way

441
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 4: around it. I'm seeing five and a half. You know, Oh,

442
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 4: you can check me on that. As far as where

443
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:21,640
Speaker 4: it's fluctuating at time of press, Baylor, even though it's

444
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 4: in Waco, lost their two b Blapan is headed for

445
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 4: an MRI. You know his starters started all year. You

446
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 4: have Kyron drones coming in, So now you know that

447
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 4: advantage they had in potential experience over Cam Rising is

448
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:40,400
Speaker 4: now nullified. You know where you saw that Barnes Johnson combo,

449
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:45,600
Speaker 4: you know this past week against Florida and used it too,

450
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:49,639
Speaker 4: frankly devastating effect. I don't think we get Cam Rising,

451
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 4: and the reason is pretty clear. They just played Florida

452
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,640
Speaker 4: obviously couldn't make that game. But now you're a week

453
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,639
Speaker 4: and a half later because Thursday night at Baylor, he's

454
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,920
Speaker 4: I think he's probably out for that. Because week three

455
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 4: they play Weavers State now, no disrespect to Weber State.

456
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 4: I'm a big fan of the Fab five. I'm a

457
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 4: big Chris Weber guy, you know, as everybody knows. But

458
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:20,840
Speaker 4: the college is named after the great power forward is

459
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:23,399
Speaker 4: not exactly going to test the Utah youths, and I

460
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 4: don't think that there's any need to go and bring

461
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 4: him out.

462
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 2: Pop possibly ahead a schedule.

463
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 4: In this game when you know you have a layup

464
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 4: in week three before you get into the Pac twelve conference,

465
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,680
Speaker 4: what's left of it, and you host the UCLA at

466
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 4: home before going to Oregon State over the next two

467
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 4: weeks and a six week six by Looms. So my

468
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 4: personal opinion is I think we either see rising week

469
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:58,440
Speaker 4: week four against UCLA or post by week seven at

470
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 4: California with we kind of a get right situation. We're

471
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:08,880
Speaker 4: at USC Looms on October twenty first, So that's kind

472
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 4: of my own like personal look ahead crystal balling of

473
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 4: the situation with Utah, and I think that you know,

474
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 4: with Baylor compromise now and Utah proven that they can

475
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:21,640
Speaker 4: handle it against Florida, I'm thinking we're going to see

476
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 4: this get over a touchdown as game time approaches.

477
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,280
Speaker 1: So I was going to ask you, this feels like

478
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 1: one of those games that between the time US recording

479
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 1: this and this actually airing on Vetting Pros YouTube channel,

480
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 1: that this line might already make some movement because there's

481
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 1: some big line value according to your system. So just

482
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 1: be aware of what we're talking about. That five and

483
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 1: a half number might even look different when this post.

484
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 1: But do you think that's going to be okay? Do

485
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 1: you think there's enough line value that this is one

486
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 1: you can still get in on early in the week

487
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:52,640
Speaker 1: even if it moves across what work?

488
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:53,119
Speaker 2: Again?

489
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 3: I just I just bought a ticket at five and

490
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,880
Speaker 3: my line on this game is Utah minus ten point

491
00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:02,919
Speaker 3: on one. I do think this is coming up, you know,

492
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:06,360
Speaker 3: I think by certainly by kickoff, but maybe even by

493
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 3: tomorrow there is gonna be more like Utah minus seven.

494
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 3: And it doesn't you know, like, yeah, would you prefer

495
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 3: the Rising plays, Yeah, I'm for sure.

496
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 2: Would you prefer that Keithye plays as well? Yeah? For sure?

497
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 3: But Utah just shut out the lights totally on Florida.

498
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 3: Florida was absolutely hapless and couldn't do anything. And we

499
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 3: know at least so Utah's defense is awesome. Awesome, and

500
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,400
Speaker 3: their offensive line is awesome, and they have a really

501
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 3: good running back stable. Whatever, they'll go to the next

502
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:37,879
Speaker 3: level ostensibly when Rising comes back, if he's fully healthy,

503
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,360
Speaker 3: when Keith's fully healthy as well, then you'll be able

504
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:42,440
Speaker 3: to pass the ball as well. I don't know, though,

505
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 3: why the market is giving Baylor so much credit in

506
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 3: this game. They just got absolutely whipped by Texas State,

507
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 3: a team that has an entirely new roster was awful

508
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 3: last year. Texas State was basically the Colorado of the

509
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,680
Speaker 3: G five, and they go in and they just smoke Baylor.

510
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 3: And if that Colorado thing wasn't happening and some of

511
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:04,880
Speaker 3: that stuff, that would have gotten more pub I think

512
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:09,159
Speaker 3: Texas State's upset in that game, but Baylor did not

513
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 3: look good. Fro Time mentioned the quarterback issues that Baylor has.

514
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 3: They can't figure out their running back room initially. The

515
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 3: defense has certainly fallen off from the heyday early days

516
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:22,919
Speaker 3: of Randa. You know, when they had Petrie, when they

517
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 3: had Terrell Bernard siaki Ika, who was the one that

518
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,880
Speaker 3: left this pass offseason whatnot. I think that line needs

519
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:31,920
Speaker 3: to be seven to seven and a half, maybe even

520
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,160
Speaker 3: a little bit above my system thinks that should be ten.

521
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 3: So I'm definitely on Utah. I expect that's where the

522
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 3: early week money is going to go.

523
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 1: A moving into the afternoon. Those were kind of our

524
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:46,239
Speaker 1: early Saturday games, the afternoon later game slate. These are

525
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:49,680
Speaker 1: two teams that came in as top twenty five. Both

526
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 1: picked up wins. We have got all Miss and Tallane

527
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 1: that are going to be going down an early line

528
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,439
Speaker 1: of five and a half. So fro time we'll go

529
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 1: back to you here. Tallane, Miss both pick up the wins,

530
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 1: both top twenty five. That's a pretty good matchup. Is

531
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,159
Speaker 1: their value? Is there a play that you want to

532
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 1: jump in on early?

533
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 2: Yeah?

534
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,879
Speaker 4: I mean, gosh, you look at it minus six currently.

535
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 4: You know hubver around that range right now, ole Miss.

536
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 4: I mean, I get that it's at Tulane, but it's

537
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 4: not that far. You know, it's not a mega trip

538
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 4: or anything like that. And you know, Tulane didn't look pretty.

539
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 4: I mean, they handled business at South Alabama and they

540
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 4: had the inspirational win against USC last year. But I

541
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 4: think this has given him just a little bit too

542
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:40,119
Speaker 4: much credit, this Ole Miss defense. As we talked about

543
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 4: the type of team teams that are willing to dive

544
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 4: into the portal. They are fortified defensively from the work

545
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 4: that Dwayne Kiffin has done.

546
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 2: You have Jackson Dart.

547
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 4: You know, appears to be pretty comfortably the starter. I

548
00:27:57,920 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 4: love Dart. I think that he's going to have a

549
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 4: great sea in this year. He looked really good in

550
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 4: the tune up against an FCS team this week. Trey

551
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 4: Harris from Louisiana text there he had a big week.

552
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 4: Zachary Franklin at some point will be healthy enough to contribute.

553
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 4: You know, you got Judkins and you have a very

554
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 4: experienced offensive line that you know could be a Joe

555
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:23,480
Speaker 4: Moore Award contender. So everything with Old Miss. You know,

556
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 4: I'm a little more bullish, I think than most on

557
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 4: the team. And it's not really anything against Tulane, but

558
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 4: I mean they lose all of their top five tacklers

559
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 4: and they try to try to address it in the

560
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 4: transfer portal as well. But when you're talking about, you know,

561
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 4: trying to sustain the level of play they had against USC,

562
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 4: you know you're going against Old Miss home or not.

563
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:50,160
Speaker 4: With those sort of defections, I just don't think they're

564
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 4: going to be able to stay with it with them.

565
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 1: The line looks like it's moving a little bit for

566
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 1: or maybe from like when it opened it around five

567
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 1: and a half. I do see six in some spots,

568
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 1: so it looks like it's moving close or to your

569
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 1: adjusted line. Is this gonna be one that you have

570
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 1: to get in on early to bet it? Or is

571
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 1: this team good enough will miss this one that you're

572
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 1: gonna jump in or are you gonna play to lane?

573
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 1: I shouldn't even you know, I obviously know the adjusted

574
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 1: line is in favor here, but.

575
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, you should jump in early if you want to

576
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 3: get this beneath seven. My line is ole Miss minus

577
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 3: six point nine. I think that's we're gonna settle this

578
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 3: around seven. The only trepidation from the ole Miss side

579
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 3: heading to Tulane in this one is Willie Fritz has

580
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 3: been awesome against the spread at home ever since he

581
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 3: took over at Tulane, one of the top three coaches

582
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 3: during that span against against the spread winning percentage.

583
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 2: But they are coming off that really big win over

584
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 2: South Alabama.

585
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 3: This game not as important to the Tulane cause you know,

586
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 3: I don't know if they fell out for this one.

587
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 3: They want to win the AAC again, whereas ole Miss.

588
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 3: They have potentially higher aspirations we will end up seeing

589
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 3: on that Ole Miss. We didn't get to see a

590
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 3: ton of stuff from them last week because they were

591
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 3: playing the FCS team and they just whipped them.

592
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 2: You know.

593
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 3: They let Judkins do it his couple runs and Dart

594
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 3: was could not miss early on Dart. His game appears

595
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 3: to have jumped up over the offseason. Spencer Sanders went there,

596
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 3: we all thought he was going to start and then

597
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 3: but Dart, the reports of his improvement came fast and

598
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 3: furious since the spring. If Dart is if he has

599
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 3: made that jump back up, and remember he was a

600
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 3: former ballyhooed recruit went to usc US, he was just

601
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 3: going to roll that forward with him. Obviously things changed

602
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 3: when you went to Lincoln Riley, they bringing Caleb Williams whatever.

603
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 3: But if he's ready to for his potential to flower

604
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 3: out here and to hit that potential, this team goes

605
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 3: to a different level. I think the objectively fair line

606
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 3: in this game is all minus seven, So yeah, I think.

607
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 2: That's one you better early in the week if it's

608
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 2: beneath that. For sure.

609
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 1: Going into Week one, Iowa was top twenty five. They

610
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 1: picked up a win, and we've got an Iowa rivalry game.

611
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 1: Iowa going into Iowa State, Iowa is a four point

612
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 1: favorite early on, might be adjusting a little bit, so

613
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 1: throw let's go right back to you. My question would

614
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 1: be this is this Is there a lean in a

615
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:08,719
Speaker 1: spot that you would want to jump in on this

616
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 1: game because this game will probably have some eyes, But

617
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 1: I don't know if there are any early advantages. So

618
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 1: what say you about Iowa?

619
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 2: Out of four Ioways stay.

620
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 3: You know, they had all the problems over the offseason,

621
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 3: a lot of guys suspended for the gambling thing, as

622
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 3: that sort of thing works itself out.

623
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 2: Iowa had a couple as well.

624
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 3: Not they didn't lose nearly as much as as Iowa

625
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 3: State did as far as like the production of the

626
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 3: starting lineup whatnot. But these games are always played close.

627
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 3: Take it from someone that went to Iowa City for

628
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 3: graduate school and has been to this game both in

629
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 3: Iowa City ended games.

630
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 2: It always plays close.

631
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 3: You know, any Iowa or Iowa State fan would tell

632
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 3: you that, you know, it's sort of want to you know,

633
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 3: you toss out the cliche of like throw at the

634
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:49,600
Speaker 3: records during a rivalry game.

635
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 2: Usually that that takes it a little far.

636
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 3: But with with with this game, it is that it

637
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 3: always just plays close.

638
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 2: Whatnot? Plus my line on this one right now is

639
00:31:57,840 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 2: Iowa minus two point five.

640
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,719
Speaker 3: Iowa's offense as well, didn't look as good as we

641
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 3: were hoping for.

642
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 2: In the opener against Utah State.

643
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 3: Utah State a team that I think is going to

644
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 3: be awful this year, they kept it within ten points

645
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 3: of Iowa. Iowa goes and scores two quick touchdowns with McNamara,

646
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 3: but then he started to see some of the issues

647
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 3: that we see in the past crop up. We had

648
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 3: drop balls from the receiving core. The receiving corps is

649
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 3: quite bad. McNamara was banged up, he was able to play,

650
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 3: So that's that's a you know, a data point in

651
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 3: support of Iowa in this game. Should be playing in

652
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 3: this one as well, but it just wasn't. The offense

653
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 3: just didn't click as much after those first couple of

654
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 3: drives as we were hoping for. So this one, you know,

655
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:39,760
Speaker 3: if the line is going to be four or even

656
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 3: three and a half, I'm probably staying away from it.

657
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 3: I wouldn't consider I'm certainly not going to bet on

658
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 3: Iowa State as an Iowa grat but if it got

659
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 3: back to three or Togo to two and a half,

660
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:52,400
Speaker 3: certainly then I might fire on Iowa. But above that,

661
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 3: I understand why the market's pushing it that way, but

662
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 3: I feel like it's a little bit too much respect

663
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 3: for the Hawk guys.

664
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:00,240
Speaker 1: So for a time, I obviously ask you the same thing,

665
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 1: like do you have any other specific leans? But I'll

666
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 1: ask you, is McNamara maybe a player prop play this week?

667
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 1: Is there anything in play for him from a player

668
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 1: prop market out of this game, or do you have

669
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:10,880
Speaker 1: any strong lean on this game whatsoever?

670
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 4: I see, Well, there weren't any lines on him last week,

671
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 4: so we don't have a baseline because they you know,

672
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 4: they you know, played Utah State. They didn't really have anything,

673
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 4: and plus he was he was questionable coming into the game,

674
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 4: So sometimes they won't wine guys if they're understandably compromised already.

675
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 4: But I would think you have a pretty much prototypical

676
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:36,719
Speaker 4: under here. I mean, God, look at these two teams

677
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 4: bowling shoe ugly for Iowa against Utah status Thor alluded to,

678
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 4: but you know, with this particular contest against Iowa State,

679
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 4: this opened that actually Iowa State favored by a point

680
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 4: and a half back in May. That is now, as

681
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 4: you mentioned, hit four in some place. That's a five

682
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 4: and a half point swing. That's pretty dramatic in terms

683
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 4: of the open and a lot of that has to

684
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 4: you know, the suspensions have to do with the turmoil,

685
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:09,319
Speaker 4: the turmoil in the in the program. Hunter Deckers last year,

686
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:11,799
Speaker 4: a four stars starting quarterback.

687
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:12,720
Speaker 2: He is gone.

688
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 4: Jerry row Brock, four star running back starter gone.

689
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 2: Uh we.

690
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 4: There have been multiple linemen hit with suspension, so there'll

691
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 4: probably be more. Just the overall chaos surrounding the program

692
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,840
Speaker 4: dropped their season line from five and a half wins

693
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:31,360
Speaker 4: at you know, plus one thirty to the under to

694
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 4: five wins and now you know it's on my one fifty.

695
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:39,760
Speaker 4: In a lot of places you can you're they're begging

696
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:42,880
Speaker 4: you to not take the under. So this is a

697
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 4: big game for them. But I mean both these teams

698
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 4: in Iowa twenty four to fourteen had two hundred and

699
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:50,280
Speaker 4: eighty four total yards thirty they rushed thirty six times

700
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 4: eighty eight yards on thirty six rushes against the Mountain

701
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 4: West team.

702
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:56,839
Speaker 2: You know, I mean Utah State.

703
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 4: Would they win three games four games last year. But

704
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 4: this is not an imposing team that they were dealing

705
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:05,920
Speaker 4: with eighty eight yards two and a half yards of carry.

706
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:10,839
Speaker 4: You know, McNamara was decent, he didn't turn the ball over,

707
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 4: but eighteen thirty three not exactly inspiring in Iowa State.

708
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 4: You know, they're playing in northern Iowa. Two hundred and

709
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 4: fifty total yards given all the turnover in that program,

710
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 4: only ripped off forty five plays, sixty percent of them

711
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 4: were runs, and they went two for eleven on third downs.

712
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:31,760
Speaker 4: I mean, I can't back Iowa's stack.

713
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 2: I can't. There's no way, so I.

714
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:39,319
Speaker 4: Think people, even though Iowa was one point below the

715
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 4: Farence line, you know, the twenty five points as it's

716
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 4: now known, in order to hit his bonus, I can't.

717
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:46,480
Speaker 2: I have to go with Iowa.

718
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:49,960
Speaker 4: I cannot bet on this Iowa State team considering where

719
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 4: they are right now. I think the line continues to

720
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,479
Speaker 4: go up, you know, away from thors two and a half,

721
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:57,720
Speaker 4: I think I guess the five to five and a half. Frankly,

722
00:35:57,800 --> 00:35:58,799
Speaker 4: give them the directions going.

723
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 1: We got two more big games. We're gonna break down.

724
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:03,320
Speaker 1: Then we're going to get some potential line movers, and

725
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:05,720
Speaker 1: we've got the biggest game coming up here in a second.

726
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 1: There's a tas not to be dismissive, of course, of

727
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:12,399
Speaker 1: Washington State and Wisconsin, but you do have Washington State

728
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 1: Wisconsin four and a half looks like the early line

729
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:18,719
Speaker 1: of what we're seeing. Thor talk to me about a

730
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 1: lot of chirpin on early early first quarter Wisconsin this

731
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 1: week on the ex the twitter, But talk to me

732
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:26,200
Speaker 1: about this line.

733
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:26,880
Speaker 2: This is fair.

734
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 3: This line is objectively fair. This thing should have been

735
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 3: open in the Vegas dead zone and that's exactly where

736
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:32,560
Speaker 3: it did.

737
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:34,480
Speaker 2: You know, four and a half whatever.

738
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:37,440
Speaker 3: My line on it is Wisconsin minus five point four,

739
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 3: but you're in the dead zone there that that point

740
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 3: doesn't really matter. I don't know that I'll be playing

741
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 3: this one, but like, even though my system shows just

742
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:50,959
Speaker 3: the slightest amount of value on Wisconsin, I was talking

743
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 3: about the against the spread record of Willie Fritz Wazoo

744
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 3: in Pullman at Home is one of the best against

745
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:00,719
Speaker 3: the spread teams over the last decade. Is a very

746
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 3: hard place to play. I've been out there on the polues.

747
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:07,879
Speaker 3: Very fun place to watch a game, but you're way

748
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 3: out there, you know, I mean the ten minutes from

749
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 3: the Idaho campus. Right, it's like the you know, Moscow, Idaho.

750
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:16,760
Speaker 3: It's like right across the you know, the the state

751
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 3: line whatever. You have to go way way out there,

752
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 3: like I said, in a difficult place to play.

753
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:23,920
Speaker 2: The fans kind of seem like they're on top of you.

754
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 3: The game I watched was the USC Wazoo game Thursday night,

755
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:31,439
Speaker 3: like five six years whenever Sam darnld his last season

756
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 3: when he was a red shirt sophomore Sam Darnalld. That

757
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:35,760
Speaker 3: was when I was like, oh, I don't know about

758
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,239
Speaker 3: the you know, the NFL stuff completely because you could

759
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 3: tell he had the stuff in his head right, like

760
00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:43,239
Speaker 3: it was the original ghost in the pocket kind of

761
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,879
Speaker 3: a game. This is a tough one for Wisconsin who

762
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 3: just had this enormous schematic shift.

763
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:48,839
Speaker 2: Right.

764
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:50,960
Speaker 3: You go from the ground and pound system that they

765
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:53,839
Speaker 3: had for I was gonna say years, but it's more

766
00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:56,279
Speaker 3: than that is decades, and now you go to Phil

767
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:59,359
Speaker 3: Longo's spread offense out of the shotgun, throwing down field,

768
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 3: different stuff like that. They still have the hammer back

769
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:03,840
Speaker 3: in brailn Allen, but they're still certain some of that

770
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:06,360
Speaker 3: stuff through, right, Like you've seen some of that against Buffalo,

771
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:08,960
Speaker 3: like they're still working it out. It was an okay

772
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 3: win that they had over Buffalo. Buffalo not a great team, obviously,

773
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:14,400
Speaker 3: this is a different assignment. Now you have to travel

774
00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 3: across the country going the other way out to the

775
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:19,240
Speaker 3: West coast, out into the middle of nowhere and play

776
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:20,399
Speaker 3: this Wazoo team.

777
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 2: Who handing the sky on this one.

778
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 3: I was too low on Washington State coming into the year,

779
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 3: at least based on the Week one returns. That was

780
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 3: my biggest miss. I think, well two big misses in

781
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:33,400
Speaker 3: Week one. The other one was overvaluating North Texas and

782
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:36,759
Speaker 3: not quite high enough on cal but Wazoo. I was

783
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:40,280
Speaker 3: lower on them. I was higher on Colorado State. Wazoo

784
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:43,879
Speaker 3: had absolutely no problem wiping the floor with Colorado State.

785
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,799
Speaker 3: They had a lot of defensive turnover over the offseason.

786
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 3: They lost the receiving core for cam Mood. They lost

787
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 3: both their coordinators. But again, at least as far as

788
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 3: Week one return goes, Wazoo looks better. This is a

789
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:59,200
Speaker 3: shot for them to potentially ambush a favorite opponent coming

790
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 3: in Big ten opponent theirs Wazoos last year in the

791
00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 3: Pac twelve. That we don't know what's going to happen

792
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 3: after that I expect the fans to rally around them

793
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 3: in this game. I'm leaning towards stay Away, But if

794
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 3: I had to bet one right now, gun to my.

795
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 2: Head, I would be on the Wazoo side of that one.

796
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, interesting photon. Also, we saw like the insane offenses

797
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 1: that came out of the Pac twelve this weekend, and

798
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 1: then you also saw some of the you know what

799
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 1: was it the Big ten? The rushing kind of aspects

800
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 1: of how college football has changed with the clock, and

801
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:32,319
Speaker 1: you know what overall over unders are going to look like.

802
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 1: I wonder if maybe there's not a lean on either

803
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:40,360
Speaker 1: Wisconsin or Wazoo here, is there an over underplay that

804
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:42,360
Speaker 1: you would want to get down, especially this bit, I

805
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 1: don't know if you're going to see overvalued stuff. The

806
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:47,680
Speaker 1: adjusted line toward that you've got looks like fifty four

807
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 1: and a half. That's I don't know if that's is

808
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 1: that you're adjusted or is that the early.

809
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 3: That's the Vegas number. My eye shaded under that. You know,

810
00:39:57,200 --> 00:39:59,239
Speaker 3: i'd have it more in the mid forties to high

811
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:02,120
Speaker 3: forties whatever, but I would be under on that. The thing, though,

812
00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:04,320
Speaker 3: that you do have to keep in mind is Wazoo's

813
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 3: offense did play better than we thought last week. You're

814
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 3: gonna have to bake that in a little bit. And

815
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 3: then Wisconsin you have to throw out last year's data

816
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 3: because you have the different guys on offense, but specifically

817
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 3: the strategy on offense is totally different.

818
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:18,000
Speaker 2: But you have the running.

819
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 3: Clock right and Wazoo they kept the system where it's

820
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:23,200
Speaker 3: the short passes. They use the pass game like the run.

821
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 3: They're not super duper aggressive downfield. Colorado State obviously could

822
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 3: not tackle them in space. You would think that Wisconsin

823
00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:32,320
Speaker 3: secondary is able to do that. If so, then Wazoo

824
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 3: is going to be more methodical moving up the field.

825
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 3: That's where those clock rules will come into play, and

826
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 3: that's in front.

827
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 1: That's what I was curious about is if you had

828
00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 1: any lean on the over under in this. I just

829
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 1: feel like there's going to be maybe a more of

830
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 1: a hyper focus on PAC twelve games this week on

831
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 1: what those lines are, But really, any takeaway on this game, Yeah,

832
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 1: I mean, you.

833
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 4: Gotta remember these two teams played last year in Camp

834
00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:58,239
Speaker 4: Randall Stadium and Wisconsin lost YEP seventeen to fourteen in

835
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 4: a game where they out gained Washington State four hundred

836
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 4: and one to two hundred and fifty three total yards.

837
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 4: That is a absurd discrepancy in terms of that.

838
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 2: And if you could put that into the Pythagorea and win.

839
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 4: Expectations, you know it's gonna come out a lot on

840
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:23,280
Speaker 4: Wisconsin side. Now, I mean they got ten returning starters

841
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 4: on offense, eight on d Fickleback Longo in town. And

842
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:31,800
Speaker 4: then on the other side, do you have Wazoo. Eric Morris,

843
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:35,800
Speaker 4: their offensive coordinator, goes out incomes ben Arbuckle from Western

844
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 4: Kentucky off the Zach Kittley Tree. He was his top lieutenant.

845
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 4: You know during the Bailey Zappy Mitch Tinsley, Jarrett Stearns

846
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:50,359
Speaker 4: nuclear six thousand passing yard season of twenty twenty one

847
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 4: for Western Kentucky. Our Buckle is a big part of that.

848
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:55,960
Speaker 4: So he went did the same thing last year. Now

849
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:57,839
Speaker 4: he moves over to Wazoo. And if you saw them

850
00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:03,800
Speaker 4: against Colorado State, am Ward was dealing against Colorado State.

851
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:07,360
Speaker 4: I think, you know, this is going to be the

852
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 4: opposite of last year where you had that seventeen to

853
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:13,239
Speaker 4: fourteen rock fight. You have two completely different systems that

854
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 4: are facing off against each other. I think you're gonna

855
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 4: see Wisconsin and they also also left points on the board.

856
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 4: Wisconsin Skyler belt out to seventy yard wide open touchdown pass.

857
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 4: I think you're going to see this game go over.

858
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,880
Speaker 4: I am again on the other side of Thor. Maybe

859
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:31,280
Speaker 4: Thor wants to buy me another the helmet?

860
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:35,800
Speaker 1: Does he want to get the bets in? Get the

861
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:37,320
Speaker 1: bets in? Boys? All right, let's go to the final

862
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 1: big game that we're going to take a look at.

863
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:41,439
Speaker 1: This is the one that's gonna have all the eyes

864
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 1: outside of Colorado. It's Texas Alabama, both going in as

865
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:49,400
Speaker 1: top twelve teams. Texas came in eleventh, Alabama four. Alabama

866
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:52,200
Speaker 1: currently looks like as we're seeing this, a seven and

867
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 1: a half point favorite four. This is gonna be a

868
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:58,799
Speaker 1: big matchup our all, dearly beloved Scott Bogman will be

869
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 1: eyes glued to the game for his Longhorns. But is

870
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:03,719
Speaker 1: there a bet? Is there a lean?

871
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:06,799
Speaker 2: What say you? On the beginning, we were waiting for

872
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 2: that thing to toggle over. Seven.

873
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:10,200
Speaker 3: So at seven and a half, that's a play for

874
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 3: me on Texas and I can't imagine that gets too

875
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 3: much higher. But that's the number that you want to

876
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:18,040
Speaker 3: look for here, you know, if you're interested on that

877
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:19,239
Speaker 3: side this thing.

878
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 2: You know.

879
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:23,720
Speaker 3: In Week one, obviously, Alabama looked pretty good against Middle

880
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 3: Tennessee and Texas looked a bit more listless. But it

881
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 3: seemed like Alabama was trying to be like, oh, you

882
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 3: know that we heard our critics over the summer and

883
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 3: putting more into that game. I think maybe than you

884
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 3: would typically do against Middle Tennessee State, although that Saban's progative.

885
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 3: Saban has been awesome, just slapping teams around Week one

886
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:44,319
Speaker 3: his entire time at Alabama against spread records, very good

887
00:43:44,600 --> 00:43:46,879
Speaker 3: Middle Tennessee State, a team that made the ball last year,

888
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 3: made us a lot of money on Christmas Night against

889
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:50,959
Speaker 3: San Diego State because they had a solid front seven

890
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:54,480
Speaker 3: last year. They were not as engaged with that game.

891
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:57,880
Speaker 3: Texas against Rice, Texas didn't look quite as good. They

892
00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:00,400
Speaker 3: were sort of, you know, pillow fighting with Rice. Initially,

893
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:02,920
Speaker 3: we got to see JT. Daniels come out on Rises

894
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 3: eight team he've been on in college whatnot. But I

895
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 3: think Texas was more that Texas knew they were going

896
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:09,919
Speaker 3: to roll out the ball and win. Seems like they've

897
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 3: been just preparing for Alabama the whole time. Texas probably

898
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 3: would have beaten Alabama last year had quinn Ewers not

899
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 3: gotten injured. Everything was going their way up until when

900
00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 3: when quinn Ewers got injured. Obviously that sort of changed

901
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:24,640
Speaker 3: the trajectory of that game. I think these two teams

902
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 3: are closer qualitatively, certainly than the market does or what

903
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:31,120
Speaker 3: the perception is whatnot. I've been saying this since the summer.

904
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 3: I think Texas is live in this game. But after

905
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:36,319
Speaker 3: my adjustments this week, I think I have this line

906
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:38,479
Speaker 3: at Alabama minus six or six and a half.

907
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:39,879
Speaker 2: I did move Alabama up.

908
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:42,960
Speaker 3: I you know, Texas might have dinged them, you know,

909
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:44,440
Speaker 3: by like a you know, a couple of tens of

910
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:48,840
Speaker 3: a point whatnot. But even so, if this line is

911
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:51,600
Speaker 3: over seven, certainly, even at seven, I would show a

912
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:54,880
Speaker 3: little bit of line value on Texas. But above a touchdown,

913
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:56,799
Speaker 3: that's where I want to be on Texas. I also

914
00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 3: have money line takets. I'll be buying some more, you know,

915
00:44:59,239 --> 00:45:01,440
Speaker 3: especially if it top goes up anymore. But for me,

916
00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:04,120
Speaker 3: Texas would be the side over a touchdown first time.

917
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:05,840
Speaker 1: Do you want to play Texas plus seven and a

918
00:45:05,880 --> 00:45:08,680
Speaker 1: half And is there any player prop that you would be,

919
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 1: you know, giving people advice to be looking for very

920
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:13,720
Speaker 1: early on before it moves out of this game.

921
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, as far as far as the game till yeah,

922
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:22,840
Speaker 4: seven and a half, I'm interested. I want to believe,

923
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 4: you know, lef last year quarter and a half of

924
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:29,800
Speaker 4: pure magic out of quin Uers hearts his shoulder affects

925
00:45:29,840 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 4: the rest of the season coming out look and ripped

926
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 4: and all the photos from camp, and then he's dialed

927
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:38,720
Speaker 4: in ready to contribute. So I am kind of on Texas.

928
00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:40,279
Speaker 4: But what I want to talk about with this game

929
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 4: is the total, all right, because something very interesting happened

930
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:49,280
Speaker 4: heading into this week. Heading into week one, the total

931
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 4: had settled at sixty four and a half. Now, as

932
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:57,480
Speaker 4: of I checked two hours before broadcast, it had settled

933
00:45:57,520 --> 00:46:01,279
Speaker 4: in at fifty seven and a half right now at

934
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 4: time of broadcast. That is a giant seven point plummet

935
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 4: after each of these two teams played, and and there's

936
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:12,560
Speaker 4: you know, it's kind of easy to see why one,

937
00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 4: as you alluded to, the clock has affected games undeniably

938
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 4: in terms of the pace. And then two look at Alabama,

939
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 4: all right, you know who are they gonna start at?

940
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:24,239
Speaker 4: QB is gonna be Buck there is gonna be you

941
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:27,799
Speaker 4: know who's gonna Simpson, No, it's Milroe. Milroe goes out

942
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:30,759
Speaker 4: and puts up five touchdowns against Middle Tennessee State, as

943
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 4: they're expected to do. But it's clear they're ride with Milroe.

944
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:36,400
Speaker 4: He's gonna be the starter. And what they gonna do

945
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:39,719
Speaker 4: a lot. Oh, they're gonna pound the ball. It's not

946
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:42,719
Speaker 4: gonna be that's what they're gonna do. You don't go

947
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 4: with Jalen Milroe and decide that you're gonna run the

948
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:47,799
Speaker 4: same offense you did with Bryce Young.

949
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:49,319
Speaker 2: Why would you do that?

950
00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:53,000
Speaker 4: So they're gonna be running the ball and by the

951
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:57,520
Speaker 4: same token, Texas last year had a top twenty run

952
00:46:57,600 --> 00:47:02,799
Speaker 4: defense and just there you know, obviously it's anecdotal, but

953
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 4: last week against Rice, the rash twenty seven times on

954
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 4: twenty five carries. They got twenty seven yards, so they

955
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 4: ran for one yard per carry.

956
00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:11,000
Speaker 2: Rice.

957
00:47:11,680 --> 00:47:14,200
Speaker 4: They appear to be as stout as they were last year.

958
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:17,839
Speaker 4: So it's clear the market thinks we're going to get

959
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 4: kind of a stalemate. You know, obviously Alabama's defense is

960
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:23,920
Speaker 4: going to be nasty Dallas, Turner and Coolly and McKinstry.

961
00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:27,000
Speaker 4: So that's what the market is telling us, sixty four

962
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 4: and a half is out the door, fifty seven and

963
00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:31,759
Speaker 4: a half. I think it probably still continues to go

964
00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:33,360
Speaker 4: based on the trends.

965
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:36,880
Speaker 1: Sin say, keep watching that over underline. Lastly, we're going

966
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:40,800
Speaker 1: to finish up here with a rapid fire potential line movers,

967
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 1: not full game breakdowns. Froton, we will start with you. You

968
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:46,840
Speaker 1: got a couple games you told me before we started

969
00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:49,360
Speaker 1: up here that you think might have some line potential.

970
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 1: So give us a rapid fire a few of those

971
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:52,319
Speaker 1: games for people to look out for.

972
00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, we get Oregon right now at Texas Tech, as

973
00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:57,680
Speaker 4: we know everybody.

974
00:47:57,719 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 2: Texas Tech lost.

975
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:06,040
Speaker 4: Infamous twenty to seventeen and Laramie against the Wyoming Cowboys,

976
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:09,760
Speaker 4: which is a notoriously tough place to play, as is Lubbock,

977
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:12,279
Speaker 4: and Oregon has a pretty long trip.

978
00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 2: It's funny, you know, tex Tech is just up in

979
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:14,960
Speaker 2: Wyoming there.

980
00:48:15,040 --> 00:48:17,759
Speaker 4: Their trips back are pretty much the same, you know,

981
00:48:18,040 --> 00:48:22,160
Speaker 4: in terms of travel, except you know, tex dec can

982
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:24,560
Speaker 4: actually travel up there in the beginning. So look, I

983
00:48:24,600 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 4: don't think this is really a factor as much as

984
00:48:26,680 --> 00:48:30,320
Speaker 4: it would be going to Lubbock. But only seven points

985
00:48:30,400 --> 00:48:33,759
Speaker 4: right now, Oregon at Texas Tech. And while I don't

986
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:37,520
Speaker 4: mind the Red Raiders and they'll be fielding former Oregon

987
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:41,279
Speaker 4: QB Tyler Schuck, I'm a little surprised that I will

988
00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 4: think you will see that game climb towards eight and

989
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:46,960
Speaker 4: a half maybe nine, as game time approaches and you

990
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:49,120
Speaker 4: get all the lookie loo fans who say, oh wow,

991
00:48:49,200 --> 00:48:51,239
Speaker 4: Oregon Texas Tech, and they go for it.

992
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:52,120
Speaker 2: I do.

993
00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:55,160
Speaker 4: I did like this Texas Tech game team preseason, but man,

994
00:48:55,239 --> 00:48:58,719
Speaker 4: coming off a loss to Wyoming limping, you know, a

995
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:02,680
Speaker 4: lot of travel with or again coming in tough spot that.

996
00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 1: Is thor you. We had one game we kind of

997
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:07,279
Speaker 1: put into this. I don't want to lead you there,

998
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 1: but if you want to talk about power rankings and movers,

999
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:11,839
Speaker 1: I know that Texas State is a big one. You

1000
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 1: have any other big line movers, please do it. But

1001
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:16,560
Speaker 1: if you want to talk about potential line moves, I

1002
00:49:16,560 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 1: know Texas State was on your mind. So if you

1003
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:21,439
Speaker 1: got one tour whatever, you got quick hitters for other

1004
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:22,239
Speaker 1: potential line movement.

1005
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:23,960
Speaker 2: Yeah ye, afore mentioned Texas State.

1006
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:26,839
Speaker 3: Bobcasts, the team that went in and whip Baylor got

1007
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:29,960
Speaker 3: paid to beat them by double digits. The market has

1008
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:32,360
Speaker 3: certainly adjusted, and like I said, they were my biggest

1009
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:35,279
Speaker 3: sleeper outside of Colorado in my power rankings this week.

1010
00:49:35,440 --> 00:49:39,680
Speaker 3: Like I was aggressive in moving Texas State. My line

1011
00:49:39,680 --> 00:49:43,319
Speaker 3: in this game though even still is UTSA minus twelve

1012
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:46,719
Speaker 3: point eight. So basically UTSA minus thirteen. That line has

1013
00:49:46,719 --> 00:49:50,600
Speaker 3: been eleven eleven and a half twelve today because on

1014
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:53,560
Speaker 3: the other side, UTSA they went out on their first

1015
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:57,200
Speaker 3: game and looked offensively listless against the Houston team that

1016
00:49:57,480 --> 00:50:00,680
Speaker 3: the entire Holgers had arad the defense is but come

1017
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:04,399
Speaker 3: and go, you know, at best, and UTSA was having

1018
00:50:04,640 --> 00:50:07,319
Speaker 3: trouble moving the ball. And I think there's a supposition

1019
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:09,840
Speaker 3: in the market like it's like, oh, you know, Zacari

1020
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:12,920
Speaker 3: Franklin left UTSA and and they just struggle on offense

1021
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:14,200
Speaker 3: against the team we didn't think it was gonna have

1022
00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:17,600
Speaker 3: a very good defense. There's more pessimism on that side,

1023
00:50:17,600 --> 00:50:20,640
Speaker 3: whereas everyone now sort of jumping in on Texas State.

1024
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:24,359
Speaker 3: Now UTSA is going to have film on that, right

1025
00:50:24,440 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 3: like Baylor, they did not have film on Texas Tech.

1026
00:50:27,280 --> 00:50:30,120
Speaker 3: A lot of the players that were playing, but certainly

1027
00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:33,280
Speaker 3: not the system with those players, right. J. G. Kenny

1028
00:50:33,320 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 3: coming into to Texas State and whatnot runs a wildly

1029
00:50:37,000 --> 00:50:40,080
Speaker 3: different offense and a wildly more effective offense than mister

1030
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:43,640
Speaker 3: Jake's babitat. So I think now with that, I think

1031
00:50:43,640 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 3: the values on UTSA here. I think the market has

1032
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:48,279
Speaker 3: gone just a little bit too high on Texas State.

1033
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:50,719
Speaker 3: This is coming from someone that, like I said, I

1034
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:52,880
Speaker 3: am throwing up my part rankings too, but I think

1035
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:54,880
Speaker 3: the market's gone a little bit too high there. And

1036
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:57,600
Speaker 3: I think they're too low on UTSA based on what

1037
00:50:57,640 --> 00:51:00,600
Speaker 3: we've seen week one against Houston. UTSA and out afford

1038
00:51:00,600 --> 00:51:02,759
Speaker 3: to lose this game after they, you know, sort of

1039
00:51:02,760 --> 00:51:04,960
Speaker 3: stuffed their toad against Houston. I think they're gonna come

1040
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:07,040
Speaker 3: out inspired in this one. This line should be closer

1041
00:51:07,040 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 3: to thirteen or fourteen. I'll be on the road runners

1042
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:10,200
Speaker 3: in that one.

1043
00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:12,840
Speaker 1: It's a beautiful thing. Make sure you guys, if you

1044
00:51:12,880 --> 00:51:14,960
Speaker 1: guys are watching this video and you're not already subscribed,

1045
00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:17,640
Speaker 1: subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel because you don't

1046
00:51:17,640 --> 00:51:19,920
Speaker 1: want to miss any of it. You've got Bogmann hosting

1047
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:23,360
Speaker 1: with you and Mike on Wednesdays, I believe that post.

1048
00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:25,719
Speaker 1: And then you guys have got the Saturday streams. You're

1049
00:51:25,760 --> 00:51:27,840
Speaker 1: doing there is insanely valuable.

1050
00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:29,120
Speaker 2: We broke the record for.

1051
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:31,640
Speaker 3: Live volume this past week on the Saturday show with Pharaoh,

1052
00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:33,399
Speaker 3: So I thank you to everybody else here.

1053
00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:35,279
Speaker 2: Really yeah, yeah, so appreciate it.

1054
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:38,799
Speaker 3: Jeros starts at ten am Eastern and we go for

1055
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:40,040
Speaker 3: ninety minutes every Saturday.

1056
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:42,960
Speaker 1: That's a beautiful thing. And Mike too is like, hey,

1057
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:46,719
Speaker 1: shut up Welsh about the Colorado thing, idiot. So don't worry, Mike.

1058
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:48,960
Speaker 1: I know, I know your pockets are fat mine. I'm

1059
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 1: just sitting over here, gott to give boost th up

1060
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 1: a little bit. You can find these fine gentlemen on

1061
00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:58,200
Speaker 1: the Twitter ex at four Ku c F Froton as well.

1062
00:51:58,239 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 1: You can find me at is It the Welsh. And

1063
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:03,240
Speaker 1: also you guys can make sure to check out everything

1064
00:52:03,239 --> 00:52:05,920
Speaker 1: that Fantasy, the Fantasy Pros and Betting Pros has to

1065
00:52:06,000 --> 00:52:08,759
Speaker 1: offer by checking out the Betting Pros Pick track or

1066
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:11,719
Speaker 1: download the Betting Pros app on iOS or Android, and

1067
00:52:11,840 --> 00:52:14,200
Speaker 1: you guys can get all the notifications from Thor and

1068
00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:16,759
Speaker 1: everybody else that is partaking in there. Why would you

1069
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:19,520
Speaker 1: not want to? That's it. That's our week two look ahead.

1070
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 1: Hopefully you guys get all your bets in for thor Eric,

1071
00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:24,560
Speaker 1: I'm Welsh. We'll talk to you next time. Peace friends,