Speaker 1: The Brexit vote on Bloomberg Radio, continuing coverage of the
Speaker 1: vote in the United Kingdom. Polling has ended and the
Speaker 1: count continues in the United Kingdom over the referendum to
Speaker 1: remain or to leave the European Union. Here to help
Speaker 1: us understand more is arenab Doss. He is head of
Speaker 1: Emerging Markets macro for invest Goo Fixed Income and he
Speaker 1: joins us from London area. Thanks very much for being
Speaker 1: with us. Tell us a little bit about your day
Speaker 1: and what did you see during the voting process. UM. Well,
Speaker 1: you know, it's like all the news stories are saying
Speaker 1: there's there's been a raining, cats and dogs and problems
Speaker 1: with the with the transport system, so there was concern
Speaker 1: about turnout. UM. The Nigel Farage quote UM to Sky
Speaker 1: News makes the very important point. I think that turnout
Speaker 1: was extremely high. There's some estimates that turnout was perhaps
Speaker 1: UM despite the despite the problems with the weather and
Speaker 1: the transport system, which indicates that UM, probably the Remain
Speaker 1: camp was successful in getting the vote out. UM. And
Speaker 1: by all accounts a high turnout would be would point
Speaker 1: to a Remain success. So I think that's that's where
Speaker 1: it's going. It's quite early to be sure yet, but
Speaker 1: that's the direction that we're headed. I think, so if
Speaker 1: we're heading that direction, let's let's just look as sort
Speaker 1: of emerging markets broadly, because it seems that you can
Speaker 1: slice a possible Brexit vote which apparently is not passing
Speaker 1: a lot of different ways from a lot of different countries.
Speaker 1: But the one big factor has been uncertainty, right right,
Speaker 1: I think the uncertainty would have been very well and
Speaker 1: if it is the case that there is still a
Speaker 1: vote for Brexit, the uncertainty will be very magnified. The
Speaker 1: market has effectively priced out the risk of Brexit UM
Speaker 1: in UK assets, European assets, and generally in risky assets. UM.
Speaker 1: There's probably some more upside because there is residual uncertainty.
Speaker 1: But I think if you know the danger now is
Speaker 1: that if UM, if the vote count goes the other way,
Speaker 1: that there's significant downside, right because it's all been pricing
Speaker 1: towards the Brexit out sorry towards the Bromain outcome. UM.
Speaker 1: I think if if that's the outcome that we get
Speaker 1: Bermaine UM, then we're more likely to see continued UM
Speaker 1: calming down in the markets. Right because a major event
Speaker 1: risk and a major source of political contagion in Europe,
Speaker 1: copycat eggs at referendums and so on, as well as
Speaker 1: the political crisis within the UK that Professor Blanchflower mentioned.
Speaker 1: All these things would be much less of an event
Speaker 1: risk and so I think we would have continued buying
Speaker 1: of of risky assets UM, including emerging markets, because liquidity
Speaker 1: conditions in the world remain very high, inflation is very low,
Speaker 1: yields are very low everywhere. UM. So I think you
Speaker 1: know that it would be a kind of a bit
Speaker 1: of a green light. It wouldn't really solve anything fundamental,
Speaker 1: but it wouldn't open a kind of worms either. But
Speaker 1: I'm wondering if you could tell us about what the
Speaker 1: European Union would do or respond no matter which way
Speaker 1: the vote goes. It's likely to be very close. The
Speaker 1: fact that you have so many people in a major
Speaker 1: European Union country who would like to leave this particular club.
Speaker 1: What will the European Union's response be. Well, I think
Speaker 1: in the in the remains scenario, UM, I think we're
Speaker 1: likely to get a kind of um validation of the
Speaker 1: deal that Prime Minister Cameron UM achieved with the with
Speaker 1: the European Union back in February, which essentially paves the
Speaker 1: way towards a kind of full fledged two track Europe
Speaker 1: where the Eurozone heads for deeper integration, however slowly towards
Speaker 1: some sort of federalization, hopefully along the American model. But
Speaker 1: that's by no means assured UM and the rest of
Speaker 1: the European Union UM is in a different track to
Speaker 1: a different destination. Right that the UK then has an
Speaker 1: opt out from this idea of ever deeper union, which
Speaker 1: is one of the fundamental tenets of the European Union
Speaker 1: and of course of the euro itself, so that I
Speaker 1: think it's in and of itself, will be an important change,
Speaker 1: almost regardless of the um of the outcome for Prime
Speaker 1: Minister Cameron himself, and that will create room for Europe
Speaker 1: as a whole to hold together UM with countries that
Speaker 1: are Euroskeptic but not members of the euro UM and
Speaker 1: stay in the in the European unions, such as Denmark.
Speaker 1: Does this put UM? I just wonder what is it does?
Speaker 1: What does it say for Germany? You know, Nigel Farrage,
Speaker 1: who's one of the big leaders, the biggest voices in
Speaker 1: favor of Brexit, critical, very critical of Germany and how
Speaker 1: they become so UM dittorial right or the EU. If
Speaker 1: I can sum up the tone of what he has said,
Speaker 1: does Germany rethink its position? Does Germany say, well, I'm glad,
Speaker 1: breathe a sigh of relief that this didn't pass, but
Speaker 1: take somewhat different tact in its relations with some EU countries. UM, well,
Speaker 1: I think you know. The first thing for Germany is
Speaker 1: that having the UK UM stay in the European Union
Speaker 1: strengthens Germany's hand for a more economically liberal and open
Speaker 1: European Union and Eurozone right. So Germany is always UM
Speaker 1: in a position of UM, supported I would say, or
Speaker 1: even lead in some respects by the United Kingdom UM
Speaker 1: in opposing the UH greater degree of labor market rigidities,
Speaker 1: difficulties and hiring and firing difficulties in UM, in the budgets,
Speaker 1: difficulties in the welfare state UM, and the protection for
Speaker 1: labor that is more present, let's say, in southern Europe
Speaker 1: and in the Mediterranean countries and also in France. So
Speaker 1: I think, for for you know, for starters UM, Germany's
Speaker 1: view and preference for a more open European system economic
Speaker 1: system would be supported UM. On the issue of UM,
Speaker 1: the the idea of what ultimately needs to take place,
Speaker 1: a kind of federalization UM in which there's political union
Speaker 1: ultimately fiscal union UM and a much stronger banking union UM.
Speaker 1: I think the the continuance of the UK in the
Speaker 1: EU makes that a little bit less easy to accomplish.
Speaker 1: If there were shocks, it would be perhaps faster, but
Speaker 1: in this scenario probably be slower and may not get
Speaker 1: there until the next shock. Aarn Abdas, thank you so
Speaker 1: much for joining us head of Emerging Markets MACO for
Speaker 1: invest Go fixed Income, taking a look at the Brexit vote,
Speaker 1: taking stock Bloomberg Radio