1 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What's up, everybody, 2 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:18,400 Speaker 1: It's me Jason McIntyre, Straight Bite, Bright October, the last 3 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:22,759 Speaker 1: weekday in the month of October, Saturday, Halloween gonna be 4 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 1: a full moon. Hope everybody's excited for that. Hashtag dad life. 5 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: You know where I'm coming from. Uh. We got a 6 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 1: great show. We got a wonderful guest, Preston Johnson, a 7 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 1: k a. The sports Cheetah on social media. I've actually 8 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:38,560 Speaker 1: met this guy. He has the beard of James Harden. 9 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 1: He's a Mormon, and I think he's like six ft two. 10 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:46,159 Speaker 1: It's strange things going on with Preston Johnson, but he's 11 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:48,919 Speaker 1: really sharp, very smart individual, and I think you guys 12 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:52,920 Speaker 1: are like the podcast. We picked many games for Week 13 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 1: eight in the NFL. Also, at the end of the podcast, 14 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 1: I'll give out my three best bets. I've already met 15 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:00,279 Speaker 1: two of them. I'm waiting for the right number on 16 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,760 Speaker 1: the third. And also we will be giving away two 17 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: more D dollar venmos later in the show. Two five 18 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:13,360 Speaker 1: star commenters on iTunes. Gotta you guys really delivered this month. 19 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 1: We will do it again in November. If you're late 20 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 1: to the party, but let's start with Thursday night football. 21 00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 1: It didn't go my way. I told you guys, I 22 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 1: didn't like it. I didn't like the bet. You know, 23 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 1: the play was supposed to be Atlanta. You're supposed to 24 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:28,039 Speaker 1: bet Atlanta in that spot, but I couldn't do it. 25 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:30,680 Speaker 1: I just couldn't pull the trigger. Um, and I took 26 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:35,039 Speaker 1: Carolina and they look like garbage. Carolina had an early lead, 27 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,400 Speaker 1: but defensively, they were never in that game. And if 28 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 1: you want to file something away for next week, they 29 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:43,559 Speaker 1: lost Brian Burns, their best defender. Um. He went down 30 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 1: late after getting a sack that was kind of nullified 31 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 1: because of defensive holding. But this is a Panther's defense 32 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 1: that just looked terrible. They did not force a punt 33 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 1: until there was like three minutes left in the game, 34 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 1: and Atlanta was in total control second half. Um, you know, 35 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 1: moving the ball at will five point nine yards per play. 36 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:06,560 Speaker 1: And my big takeaway from this game is the Carolina 37 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,959 Speaker 1: Panthers are who we thought they were. Right. They were 38 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 1: at one point um three and one, and now they've 39 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 1: lost two. I'm sorry, they were three and two. Now 40 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 1: they've lost two straight to the Saints and the Falcons 41 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 1: they're not going to make the playoffs. The Panthers from 42 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 1: Thursday night looked like the Carolina team we all thought 43 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 1: we'd see in the preseason. Remember this is like a 44 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:29,240 Speaker 1: five or six win team. They would be in the 45 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes and maybe they get dabblos we need to. 46 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 1: It was like Jacksonville and Carolina would both sting. Well. 47 00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 1: Jacksonville is awful, Carolina has been plucky. But this performance, 48 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 1: I mean, the offensive line was leaky, Teddy Bridgewater got 49 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 1: knocked out of the game. Um, and the defense was atrocious. 50 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:51,080 Speaker 1: Falcons whatever, um, you know they want. Julio Jones had 51 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 1: a nice night. You know I lost money on the game. 52 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 1: That's all I care about. Let's let's move on to 53 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 1: the second order of business. Here is the big college 54 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 1: football news. It broke on Thursday. Now, if you follow 55 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 1: me on Twitter, you know you had this news or 56 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 1: a whiff of it, about forty five minutes before it broke. 57 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 1: The Trevor Lawrence, the best player in college football, the 58 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:14,640 Speaker 1: man who will be the number one pick in the draft, 59 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 1: hopefully to my New York Jets. He has tested positive 60 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: for COVID and he will miss the Boston College game 61 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 1: this weekend. Now, the person who told me about it 62 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 1: is a gambler. And the line I guess opened a 63 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 1: thirty two, it ticked down to thirty one. I was 64 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 1: able to take a chunk at thirty one. It goes 65 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 1: down to thirty and then off the board. And that 66 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 1: when it went off the board is like, Okay, this 67 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 1: is more than a rumor. This is definitely there's you know, 68 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:44,240 Speaker 1: there's something more than smoked to this one. And Trevor Lawrence, 69 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 1: they announced that he tested positive. But here's where it's interesting. 70 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 1: The school announces Trevor Lawrence tested positive for COVID on Wednesday. Wednesday, 71 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 1: because of the ten day window where you can't play. 72 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 1: It's so weird. The Big ten has twenty one days. 73 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 1: They CEC somehow settled on ten. Ten days means, assuming 74 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 1: Lawrence is fine and he doesn't have any symptoms and 75 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 1: he's not hospitalized and all that, Trevor Lawrence will be 76 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 1: eligible to play next weekend against Notre Dame in a 77 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 1: massive game with national playoff implications. So um Clemson was 78 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 1: quick to rectify that. Right. Everybody instantly saw, oh no, 79 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 1: it's Thursday. They counted to ten. They realized it was 80 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 1: nine days to the Notre Dame game and they panicked. 81 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 1: The good news is they said the test was wednesday. 82 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:39,479 Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence will be eligible assuming he's healthy, and you know, 83 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:41,920 Speaker 1: we will get into college football a little bit with 84 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:46,280 Speaker 1: Preston Johnson in the interview shortly. And this is yet 85 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 1: another reason it's tough for me to get into college football, 86 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 1: that the COVID stuff is just brutal for the sport. Um, 87 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:55,479 Speaker 1: we knew it would be an issue. What do you 88 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 1: expect when there's a bunch of players living in the dorms. 89 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 1: I think all the players are okay. Um, they end 90 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:04,600 Speaker 1: up fine after a week or two. Um, and they 91 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:07,160 Speaker 1: end up playing. But you knew this was gonna be 92 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 1: a problem, and it is really hit college football hard. 93 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: I know the ratings are down a little bit. I 94 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:15,359 Speaker 1: personally have not gambled on any games other than you know, 95 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 1: the first week or someone just told me, hey, I 96 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 1: fired on these and I just took a couple of 97 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:23,239 Speaker 1: bits for some you know, cigarette money. But overall college 98 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:25,280 Speaker 1: football it's been tough and we haven't really talked about 99 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:27,720 Speaker 1: it on this podcast. I do think we will going forward. 100 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:31,800 Speaker 1: Big ten Pack twelve and um obviously Trevor Lawrence and 101 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:35,480 Speaker 1: the SEC the best conference in the country. But now 102 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 1: let's quickly get to the best two comments. We gave 103 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 1: out one on yesterday's podcast. The other two best comments 104 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:45,720 Speaker 1: that will win a hundred dollars I will ven mow 105 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 1: it to you tomorrow. And here they are, alright. First up, 106 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 1: we've got Mario Beltran. It's titled best Podcast Jason. Thanks 107 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 1: for making my drive to work awesome every single day. 108 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:01,840 Speaker 1: But please say good lie to us. Sometimes you just 109 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:04,880 Speaker 1: finished the show without saying it's over. It hurts bad, 110 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: so so so bad to be just left there without 111 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 1: even a see you tomorrow or something. I always scroll 112 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,159 Speaker 1: to see if there's more. Forty five minutes a day 113 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:17,400 Speaker 1: is not enough. Mario Beltram, that is very nice. And 114 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 1: you know what, I've heard that from a family member, Jay. 115 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 1: You need some kind of sign off something. I don't 116 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 1: really consider the sign off a video. I'm just like, 117 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: I'm out Mike Drop. All right, it's not really on 118 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:31,840 Speaker 1: Mike Drop. But Mario Beltram Beltran, hit me on Instagram 119 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 1: or Twitter and I will venmo you a hundred dollars 120 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:38,160 Speaker 1: for your very kind comment. Uh. The other one was 121 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 1: a toss up. We had several people I didn't realize 122 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 1: this is basically turned into a A lot of the 123 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 1: guys are tuning in for the picks. Well that's unfortunately 124 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 1: because you know, outside of football season, we're gonna be 125 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:53,719 Speaker 1: doing this daily. Is NBA season the summer? Uh, it's 126 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 1: We're not just doing gambling in NFL. I know we 127 00:06:55,880 --> 00:07:00,280 Speaker 1: do talk a lot of gambling, but um. The other comment, 128 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: which has a little bit less of the gambling but 129 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 1: some it's B Spear Got Picks. It's titled must Listen. 130 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: This has quickly become the first list in every morning. 131 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 1: J Mac and Rob g really bring that straight fire. 132 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 1: You bring an incredible energy and passion every day, and 133 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 1: the sports analysis and breakdowns are so valuable, literally valuable. 134 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 1: You're gambling insight and advice have been quite profitable for me. 135 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 1: I share the same passion for sports and sports Betty. 136 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 1: I know my NFL handicapping is getting better because my 137 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 1: picks are starting to line up with J Max. Keep grinding. 138 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 1: You have a longtime supporter here. Thank you. B Spear 139 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: Got Picks. And I know this is probably one of 140 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 1: those things where a lot of people are like, oh, Jason, 141 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 1: what is this the self congratulations? You know what, It's 142 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 1: less about me and it's more about you guys really 143 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 1: becoming a community, getting on board. We're all in this together. Man. 144 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 1: I'm just the you know, the voice behind it. And 145 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 1: trust me, I read the d m s, I see 146 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 1: the tweets. I don't check my Facebook mess is just 147 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 1: as much as I probably should. But it's much appreciated 148 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:05,600 Speaker 1: because you know, we're getting a lot of lessons. I 149 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 1: think October will be our record for most lessons. Obviously, 150 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 1: we keep going up on the trajectory. August, you know, 151 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 1: the first month, and in September and October was big. Listen, 152 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 1: October you had the NBA Playoffs, you had World Series, 153 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:21,880 Speaker 1: NFL like, It's a pretty great month October for sports, 154 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:24,679 Speaker 1: um and we hope to keep it rolling in November. 155 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:27,120 Speaker 1: All right. Next up is an interview. I think you 156 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 1: guys are like with Preston Johnson, the sports cheetah. Jason 157 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 1: likes to think he knows everything when it comes to sports. 158 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:41,439 Speaker 1: I know what sports fans want, but for everything he doesn't. 159 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:44,720 Speaker 1: He knows a guy who does. Let's just say I 160 00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:48,560 Speaker 1: know a guy who knows a guy he knows another guy. 161 00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:51,599 Speaker 1: All right, let's welcome in Preston Johnson, a k A 162 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 1: sports cheetah on social media. We had him on back 163 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 1: woof when the podcast started maybe August to talk. I 164 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,559 Speaker 1: think it was some n B A some NFL and uh. 165 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 1: He's a big college football guy as well. Preston, how 166 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 1: you doing. I'm doing well, man, Thanks for having me back. 167 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 1: It's good. Yeah, you're on Daily Wager, you write up 168 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:13,880 Speaker 1: stuff for ESPN. Um, you're pretty much a big deal 169 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 1: now right. I try to be Yeah. I gotta win, though, man, 170 00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 1: you gotta win. That's what it comes down to. Yes, Okay, 171 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:24,840 Speaker 1: So Preston very public with his struggles in college football. Um, well, 172 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 1: I I gotta be honest, Preston, I haven't done any 173 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 1: college football gambling this season. I'm starting to slowly get 174 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 1: into it. We had Bruce Felman on the show yesterday 175 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:34,319 Speaker 1: and he was great talking about his book and had 176 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:38,200 Speaker 1: some great Joe Burrow stuff fighting Devin White at l 177 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 1: s U and practice and just being more of a 178 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:43,440 Speaker 1: badass than you think looking at Joe Burrow. Um, but 179 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 1: I've totally punted on college football. Do you? Uh? You 180 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 1: still are firing at the same rate that you were 181 00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 1: years prior. Yeah, I mean the volumes done a little 182 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 1: bit just because we didn't have as many games or 183 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 1: teams that are playing. But that's picking up now. We 184 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 1: have week two of Mount West Conference play, a big 185 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 1: ten play. So yeah, even are in the bad days, 186 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 1: you know, Saturday it wasn't I mean, I it was 187 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 1: like four and ten or four and eleven, which is 188 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:07,440 Speaker 1: pretty bad. And I'm firing pretty big on these and 189 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 1: so to have that, like by the end of Saturday night, 190 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 1: you just you want to be done for the week, 191 00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 1: for for the months, like whatever. He's like, what's the point? 192 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:16,320 Speaker 1: And then you wake up Sunday you're feeling a little better. 193 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 1: Monday it's the line start coming out and I have 194 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 1: like eleven or twelve games I've been already now this week, 195 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 1: so it's like it doesn't matter. Like eventually you just 196 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 1: kind of get used to the losing and yeah, if 197 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 1: you've done it long enough and you know, yeah, but 198 00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 1: you don't want to be losing. Yeah, that's listen, four 199 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 1: of eleven. Who hasn't had one of those. I mean, 200 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:35,440 Speaker 1: it's just normal. But alright, Preston, let's quickly go to 201 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:38,760 Speaker 1: baseball real quick. World Series Game six. You're like a 202 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:43,559 Speaker 1: hardcore analytics guy, obviously being a numbers dude. Um, what 203 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:48,559 Speaker 1: was your major again in college sports psychology? Yeah? Sports psychology. Okay, 204 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 1: so that plays into this game, totally does Yes. So 205 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 1: Blake Snell is rolling. He had struck out the I 206 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:58,840 Speaker 1: believe the top three batters of the order the first 207 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 1: two times he faced them. Um, he was rolling. And 208 00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:04,319 Speaker 1: then he gives up a single to the nine guy 209 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:07,080 Speaker 1: and the top of the order comes up and the 210 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:11,440 Speaker 1: manager pulls him, and um, you everybody knows what happened next. 211 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 1: But the big discussion was have analytics ruined baseball? I 212 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 1: think that was the headline for the podcast the following day. 213 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:21,840 Speaker 1: It did good numbers, obviously because we're talking about the 214 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:24,280 Speaker 1: World Series and a move that anybody can relate to. 215 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: But preston, being an analytical background guy, I'm curious, were 216 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:32,680 Speaker 1: you okay with cash making this move? So let me 217 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 1: start with the reason why it was an analytical decision, 218 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 1: and then outside of it, just being like I'm an 219 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 1: analytical guy, it's really like the perfect practice of process 220 00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 1: versus results, And I totally will defend them and their process, 221 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 1: like if they went in with the game plan of 222 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:51,040 Speaker 1: no matter what, no matter how well Blake is pitching, 223 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 1: we're pulling him out before the third order because chould 224 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 1: say the third time to the order to check this out. 225 00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:58,719 Speaker 1: The battersit one forty against Blake Snell the first time 226 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 1: through the order this season. By the time the third 227 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 1: time through the order hit, they were hitting three or 228 00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:06,439 Speaker 1: seven against Like Snelly, it was the highest batting average 229 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 1: against any starting pitcher this season that made at least 230 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 1: twelve starts. Okay, time out, Let me ask a question. 231 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 1: So this season was only sixty games. Um, if we 232 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 1: look over the prior season and the prior season to that, 233 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 1: or the numbers similar is this, they're not small samples. 234 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 1: They're not that dressing. So yeah, I was gonna say 235 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 1: it's a shortened season, so the sample is smaller, but 236 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:28,800 Speaker 1: just like blindly if you blanket all pictures. And this 237 00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:31,520 Speaker 1: is why more and more teams are using relievers earlier 238 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:34,719 Speaker 1: rather than pitching their guys nine hundred plus pitches. It's 239 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 1: because you just struggle. The deeper you go into a game. 240 00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: That's your fact. At this point, it's like not even arguable. 241 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 1: So then if you're Kevin Cash, you're whoever it is 242 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 1: up top that's making the calls, and you go into 243 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 1: this game and you're like, hey, going through that third 244 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:49,560 Speaker 1: time through the order, like we're just gonna go to 245 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 1: our bullpen that we trust. And if that was their 246 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:54,360 Speaker 1: game plan going into it, how do you fault them 247 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: for one making that decision? And everyone's gonna say, well, 248 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,480 Speaker 1: if you're observing, like Blake Snow was in odd mode, 249 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:01,960 Speaker 1: like he's pitching it two hit, or like how do 250 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 1: you pull him out in that spot? And it's a 251 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:07,280 Speaker 1: fair question. It's a really tough spot. But I'll say this, 252 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:08,960 Speaker 1: looking Game two, I believe he had a no hitter 253 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 1: going into the fifth inning and they end up Dodgers 254 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 1: tag him for two rymes. He doesn't even make it 255 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:14,360 Speaker 1: out of the inning and they do the same thing 256 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 1: or they have to move. And I was going through 257 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:18,800 Speaker 1: that third time through the order, and you look back 258 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:21,680 Speaker 1: on the entire season, like they have evidence based decision 259 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 1: making they had all year long, and that got him 260 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:27,160 Speaker 1: to Game six of the World Series. Otherwise they're probably 261 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:28,560 Speaker 1: not there, and so how do you fault them for 262 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 1: not deviating? And the last thing I'll say for people 263 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:32,559 Speaker 1: that talk about, well, if you were just watching. You 264 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 1: saw how well Blake Snow was pitching, Like you gotta 265 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 1: leave him in. Look, those people don't realize that those 266 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 1: last four batters before he was pulled, his fastball velocity 267 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:45,079 Speaker 1: had gone from a game down to ninety four those 268 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:47,439 Speaker 1: previous four batters. A J. Pollock was up, he hung 269 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 1: a curveball that Paul like blitz that for an out. 270 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 1: And then the next batter he hung a slider against Barnes, 271 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:54,640 Speaker 1: who hits it and rips it for a line drive single, 272 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 1: and then they pulled him. Like these are small things 273 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 1: and details you want to talk about observing that observe 274 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:02,559 Speaker 1: a little better or in more detailed, but the data 275 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 1: backs it up. And really it's about trusting your process 276 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 1: that got you there and following through with it even 277 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:08,960 Speaker 1: though it didn't work out that time. Good thing for 278 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 1: US Dodgers fans, but I totally will thank every cash. 279 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:14,360 Speaker 1: I honestly I feel bad for the guy. Okay, so 280 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:16,800 Speaker 1: let me back up. Now, you said one interesting thing, 281 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 1: and you trust the bullpen. However, in this instant, the 282 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 1: kid Anderson had been absolutely lit up in I think 283 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:27,239 Speaker 1: somebody had said, like his last eight or ten appearances, 284 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 1: he had gotten shelled. So does that factor into the 285 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 1: process or were you would would you have preferred they 286 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 1: went to someone else? I know you were a Dodgers fans, 287 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 1: so that might sound silly. No, No, I know you're saying. 288 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 1: I mean, honestly, I think that's a bigger question here 289 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:43,400 Speaker 1: than him pulling like Snow was did you go to 290 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 1: Anderson who had I think it had given up a 291 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 1: run in six or seven straight appearances even though he 292 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 1: was lights out all you know, sixty games season, and 293 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:52,720 Speaker 1: he really had been struggling, and it wasn't like you know, 294 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 1: a five in example of like Snow being really good, 295 00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 1: and you you go with the data over the course 296 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:01,400 Speaker 1: of the season, like six six appearances for Anderson's like 297 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 1: a pretty big sample, even though it's more than just 298 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:05,120 Speaker 1: more recent, Like maybe you do want to go to 299 00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 1: Fairbanks or somebody else in that spot. That's a bigger 300 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 1: question because obviously that I just got to them, they 301 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 1: end up taking the lead and winning it. Um So 302 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:13,800 Speaker 1: I think that's definitely needs to be in the conversation, 303 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:17,000 Speaker 1: not just what Kevin cash publics. Okay, all right, so 304 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:20,120 Speaker 1: let's pivot to the NFL Week eight. Now, you know, 305 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:23,440 Speaker 1: last week we saw a couple of rematches meaning, uh, 306 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 1: you know, two teams that faced each other early in 307 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 1: the season met again for the second time, so second 308 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:32,360 Speaker 1: time through the order, Bills Jets. Bills again did not 309 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 1: cover against the Jets, and we've got a couple of 310 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:38,400 Speaker 1: those this week. But I actually want to start with 311 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 1: the weather factor, Preston Um. You know, I'm not trying 312 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:45,400 Speaker 1: to play meteorologist. I'm not Al Roker here or anything, 313 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 1: but how much does the weather factor in? And I'm 314 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 1: not just talking cold weather, the Derek Carr cold weather 315 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 1: narrative in the numbers, but specifically the wind that's generally 316 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:59,320 Speaker 1: going to be the most impactful thing when it comes 317 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 1: to weather. It's not necessarily snow. It's not necessarily the 318 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 1: cold weather or rain, like you even said. And that 319 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 1: Chiefs Broncos game last week, that total plummeted, I believe, 320 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 1: from forty nine all the way down to forty four 321 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 1: before I got closer to the game and people realized like, hey, 322 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 1: it's not really like blizzard ing. They'll they're gonna be 323 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:18,720 Speaker 1: able to see. And the wind I think was like 324 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 1: nine to totve miles per hour, which until you get 325 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 1: to about fifteen miles per hour is kind of a 326 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:26,120 Speaker 1: threshold where it will start affecting a game more, uh, 327 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:28,880 Speaker 1: you know, significantly, it's not going to have much of 328 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: an impact. So then you saw the total move up 329 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 1: to forty six and a half. You saw the total 330 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:35,320 Speaker 1: fly over during the game. So that was one where 331 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 1: I thought there was like an overreaction. Now, in some cases, 332 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 1: you know you're gonna have games. I think this Buffalo, 333 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 1: New England one, like I saw today, there's on the 334 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 1: forecast guts of forty five to fifty mile per hour 335 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:47,640 Speaker 1: wins in the Buffalo game, and then everyone's like, well, 336 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 1: Julian Edelman's out, like they're probably not gonna be passing anyway, 337 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 1: they don't have receivers that can get open. Cam Newton struggling, like, 338 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 1: that's probably just gonna be a run game anyway. But 339 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,480 Speaker 1: that's when where you've seen now the total as low 340 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:00,760 Speaker 1: as forty one forty one and a half, and that 341 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 1: opened I think, and so well, what's let me ask you, though, 342 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 1: the Patriots just got run all over by the forty 343 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:09,480 Speaker 1: niners and the Bills have one of the I think 344 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 1: the six worst run defenses in the league. So even 345 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 1: if there isn't as much passing. The run game is 346 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 1: going to be highly productive on both sides. What doesn't 347 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:21,560 Speaker 1: appear that way, so you would expect that to be 348 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:24,320 Speaker 1: the case. I think the Patriots, you know, their defense 349 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 1: shows up. They can at least limit a Bill's rush 350 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 1: offense that isn't actually that great. You know, when Josh 351 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:32,200 Speaker 1: Allen gets out and he's doing his thing, which really 352 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:35,159 Speaker 1: is generated from the passing game, then their rushing numbers 353 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 1: maybe look a little more impactful than they truly are. 354 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 1: When they turn around and handed off. The rushing offense 355 00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 1: isn't too efficient, and so I'm not necessarily sure you 356 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: want to be jumping on and over because you think 357 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 1: both rushing offenses do well, because I think sometimes we 358 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:50,639 Speaker 1: under appreciate when teams are running clock, especially in the NFL, 359 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 1: when the clock just isn't stopping like it does in 360 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,160 Speaker 1: college football. If all they're just running the play ball 361 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:57,159 Speaker 1: every time they have it's like an option game in 362 00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:59,159 Speaker 1: college football or something. It's just you're not gonna have 363 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:02,159 Speaker 1: many possessions. And both defenses are at least, you know, 364 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 1: competent enough that I don't think you're just gonna see 365 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:07,120 Speaker 1: a bunch of rushing touchdowns all of a sudden. Obviously 366 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:09,360 Speaker 1: the move was warranted. And if there's a ton of wind, 367 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:11,600 Speaker 1: I'm really curious to see. I think it's actually a 368 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,159 Speaker 1: look at the paths of plus four now, just because 369 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 1: I think some of the things, maybe you're conducive to 370 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 1: them with a better run game. Yeah, and you could 371 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:21,800 Speaker 1: argue that the pressure is on the Bills here, like 372 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 1: this is their spot. You know they had this circle 373 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,880 Speaker 1: before the season. Holy cow, we can take them down 374 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,359 Speaker 1: the divisions are, they'll be up I think three games 375 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:32,199 Speaker 1: on the Patriots if they win this. Um. Yeah, New 376 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:34,719 Speaker 1: England's in a in a dire spot. I actually am 377 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 1: gonna not take that game because it feels too obvious. 378 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: It feels like Buffalo Um. I know that's not a 379 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:44,440 Speaker 1: great reason, but so so besides the wind there, let 380 00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 1: me ask you about the Cleveland UM Raiders game. So 381 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:52,160 Speaker 1: Raiders go on the road, UM to Cleveland. Cleveland's coming 382 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:54,399 Speaker 1: off a win. But depending on what number you've got, 383 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,240 Speaker 1: maybe not a cover any edge either way here if 384 00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:00,840 Speaker 1: the winds are big in Cleveland. So you know that's 385 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 1: a fair question because I know there's sixty chance of rain, 386 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 1: but the winds I mean the forecast right now is 387 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,680 Speaker 1: twenty mile per hour winds to thirties three winds throughout 388 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 1: the day, which is extremely significant. You've seen that drop 389 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:14,159 Speaker 1: now from I think it was fifty five and a 390 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:16,880 Speaker 1: half fifty six down below. Like I mean, fifty ones 391 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:19,440 Speaker 1: are really key number in the NFL for a total 392 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 1: in that range. Some spots are now fifty and a half. Uh. 393 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 1: As far as is there an advantage to either team 394 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:27,639 Speaker 1: one or the other, I don't think so. Cleveland and 395 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:30,639 Speaker 1: obviously we know h Fansky they pulled over from Minneso. 396 00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:32,879 Speaker 1: They love to run the ball anyways, that's their I'm out, 397 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:34,440 Speaker 1: but they don't have Nick Chubb from what I recall, 398 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:36,400 Speaker 1: he's still out. He's been on the I R. So 399 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,640 Speaker 1: that's gonna be tougher for them. And Las Vegas isn't 400 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:41,200 Speaker 1: afraid to turn around and give it to Josh Jacobs 401 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:44,160 Speaker 1: and they've had success in that regarding a few matchups. 402 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:46,399 Speaker 1: So I'm staying away from that game to be completely honest. 403 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 1: If you're into teasers, I think Las Vegas is a 404 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:50,919 Speaker 1: fair teaser piece. Getting them through the key numbers up 405 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 1: to plus eight and a half, I think that's a 406 00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:54,840 Speaker 1: good teaser leg option, especially in the game that's gonna 407 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:58,080 Speaker 1: be slower, lower scoring now because of the weather concerns. Um. 408 00:19:58,119 --> 00:19:59,440 Speaker 1: And if you were let me just ask you this. 409 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 1: If you were to us someone though to throw a 410 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:04,639 Speaker 1: ball in wins, is it Baker Mayfield or is a 411 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 1: Derek Carr? I would probably trust Car because his short game, 412 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,560 Speaker 1: the quick passing. I think I think he's a little 413 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:14,359 Speaker 1: bit This is the experience helps in that regard, right yeah. Um. 414 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 1: But so the other thing is, and I don't really 415 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:20,879 Speaker 1: know how to approach this, Preston. I personally hate betting 416 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,440 Speaker 1: totals because I don't want to watch a football game 417 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 1: and I know this doesn't sound like a true gambler 418 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:29,360 Speaker 1: and root for no points or only scoring and no deal. 419 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 1: You know, Like, it's just I don't love betting totals, 420 00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 1: at least in the regular season. Plus I'm in the 421 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 1: circuit contest, and I like the idea that I can 422 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 1: break down a game better than you, and I can 423 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:43,439 Speaker 1: try to get sides at a higher clip than you. 424 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:45,360 Speaker 1: And I know that sounds stupid, that's a fool's there. 425 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: And because gambling on the NFL is the toughest. But 426 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:49,920 Speaker 1: where where do you come in on the whole sides 427 00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 1: versus totals versus props. I mean, like this weekend is 428 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:55,960 Speaker 1: there is there a chance you're only gonna bet one 429 00:20:56,160 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 1: NFL side, So I've bet too. Now. I did bet 430 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 1: the Ravens at minus three and a half and I 431 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:05,119 Speaker 1: ended up adding the Seattle Seahawks. It got to two 432 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 1: and a half, like pretty cheap prices on the two 433 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 1: and a half. And I just don't understand the move 434 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,320 Speaker 1: against Seattle. We can get into that game later if 435 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:14,720 Speaker 1: you'd like. But as far as totals versus sides, I 436 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 1: I definitely don't have like a willingness to do one 437 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,399 Speaker 1: over the other. It's generally like, all right, if I 438 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 1: show value or a discrepancy that's big enough firsts my 439 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:26,960 Speaker 1: projection and the market, I'm just gonna go ahead and 440 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:28,959 Speaker 1: bet it. Now. I will say this, I have I 441 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:31,640 Speaker 1: personally think the totals have been sharper as a whole 442 00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,119 Speaker 1: of this college football season that in the past. The 443 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 1: amount of totals I've bet is much lower. The volume 444 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:39,639 Speaker 1: of totals is lower than it has been in the past. 445 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:41,760 Speaker 1: And I think part of that you mentioned Circle, Well, 446 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:43,919 Speaker 1: they're the first in the world to post college football 447 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 1: numbers every week, and I think they've just gotten better. 448 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:49,120 Speaker 1: And they started doing that last season when they first 449 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:50,680 Speaker 1: opened their doing it this year and I just think 450 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 1: the general market on totals is sharper by Sunday night 451 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,920 Speaker 1: Monday morning than it ever was before. And so I've 452 00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,199 Speaker 1: noticed now I am betting a lot more sides, but 453 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 1: not necessarily because I want to. That's just that's what 454 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:07,439 Speaker 1: it is, like, that's just kind of where the value lies. Okay, So, uh, 455 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:10,600 Speaker 1: it's an interesting trend. And I'm not a huge trend guy. 456 00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:12,600 Speaker 1: I'll factor them in when I you know, I'm writing 457 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 1: them up for Fox Sports. But so I had seen 458 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,840 Speaker 1: this trend last week that teams coming off a Monday 459 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:22,960 Speaker 1: night football game playing a team coming off of a bye, right, 460 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:25,920 Speaker 1: so you're on extra short there on you know, uh, 461 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:30,400 Speaker 1: much longer time for whatever reason, the team coming off 462 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 1: Monday night football is hitting it like going back to 463 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,639 Speaker 1: I think two thousand three, and and I know that 464 00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:39,160 Speaker 1: the coaches staffs change and the players change and all that, 465 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:43,119 Speaker 1: but on a trend like that, can you say, hmm, 466 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 1: there may be something to that, because I will say 467 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:50,880 Speaker 1: it hit last week. Luck Box totally Arizona coming off 468 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:54,359 Speaker 1: Monday night football versus Seattle coming off the by in 469 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,960 Speaker 1: Arizona one, which you know, you could definitely call that 470 00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,440 Speaker 1: one luck. But there is one this week and it's 471 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 1: the Rays coming off Monday night football against the Bears 472 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,440 Speaker 1: against the Dolphins, who are coming off of by. Now 473 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 1: I'm not saying i'd blindly play the Rams, but when 474 00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:13,719 Speaker 1: I tell you something like that, you could be honest. President, 475 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:15,919 Speaker 1: Is it one in one year out the other? It 476 00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:18,239 Speaker 1: all depends on going back to two thousand three, Like, 477 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,159 Speaker 1: what's the sample size do you know? Off of the 478 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 1: thank you? I want to say it's like thirty five 479 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:24,680 Speaker 1: to forty games somewhere in there. Okay, So like, if 480 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:26,560 Speaker 1: that's that's not enough, I can tell you how many 481 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:28,760 Speaker 1: times when I was living in Vegas before I walked 482 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 1: by a roulette table and and red was the last 483 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:34,720 Speaker 1: twelve on the screen. You know, when you walk by 484 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,600 Speaker 1: roulette table, it shows the previous numbers, like twelve straight 485 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:41,560 Speaker 1: reds um. I've seen guys lose like eighteen nineteen black 486 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 1: jackans in a row. Like I'm telling you, if you 487 00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 1: just have a sample of thirty five, like I understand 488 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 1: you're you're querrying that exact Monday versus someone on the 489 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 1: bye week, Like you can flip thirty five coins and 490 00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,720 Speaker 1: it can be you know, and ten heads versus scales, 491 00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,520 Speaker 1: and it's just complete variants, complete luck. What I do 492 00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:02,040 Speaker 1: think it's possible, and I seen this happening in recent 493 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 1: years with home teams are just being overvalued because home 494 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 1: field advantage has been declining, and especially this season. But 495 00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,439 Speaker 1: another thing is I think sometimes the off of the 496 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,879 Speaker 1: bye extra week of rest in the market is maybe 497 00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:17,240 Speaker 1: overvalued as well. So now if it's maybe like one 498 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 1: point or one to two percentage as far as your 499 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:23,960 Speaker 1: win probability, it's not gonna manifest the sixty against the spread, 500 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 1: that still looks like way too high as far as 501 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:30,680 Speaker 1: that's that's a little flukey. But if maybe there's something 502 00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:34,320 Speaker 1: to it to the tune of forty seven percent fair 503 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 1: because I think teams are being a little bit overvalued 504 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:38,520 Speaker 1: off of the bye. That's just something I've noticed the 505 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 1: last few years, along with the home field. So let 506 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,520 Speaker 1: me hit you with this. The reason I like Miami, 507 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 1: I'm not definitely taking them in the contest, are in 508 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,720 Speaker 1: the mix for me? Yes, So the unknown of two 509 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,240 Speaker 1: of them, but the other factors at place. So I've 510 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:54,240 Speaker 1: watched the Dolphins a little too close. I wanted to 511 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,159 Speaker 1: take them against the Niners because I saw that Jones 512 00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 1: and Howard were finally healthy. Howard did who was an 513 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,679 Speaker 1: awesome cornerback got hurt last year, and Jones, who they 514 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,480 Speaker 1: stole from the Cowboys and free agency. When they are 515 00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:09,200 Speaker 1: on the field together, it's lockdown city. Teams really cannot 516 00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 1: throw on them. Howard is one of the best cornerbacks 517 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:14,000 Speaker 1: in the league according to a Pro Football Focus, and 518 00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:17,960 Speaker 1: their run defense stinks. So the ability of those two 519 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:21,040 Speaker 1: guys healthy, they're able to definitely bring an extra safety 520 00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:24,000 Speaker 1: in the box, maybe an extra safety closer to the line, 521 00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,840 Speaker 1: and say, hey, you know what, We're not worried about 522 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,680 Speaker 1: Robert Woods or Josh Reynolds or Cooper Cup. We're gonna 523 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,119 Speaker 1: lock you down on the outside and go ahead and 524 00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:35,800 Speaker 1: try to challenge us. Factor in the Brian Flores, head 525 00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:39,080 Speaker 1: coach who was on the Belichick staff that devised the 526 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,680 Speaker 1: Super Bowl game plan that totally totally shut down the 527 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,360 Speaker 1: Rams and Golf a couple of years ago. I kind 528 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:47,639 Speaker 1: of like, Miami, Am I talking myself into it? Or 529 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:49,960 Speaker 1: do you hear this as a pro gambler who looks 530 00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,280 Speaker 1: at a lot of numbers, it says, you know, that's nice, 531 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,800 Speaker 1: but my numbers says not enough, big enough delta forget it. 532 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 1: So you I mean you're going against the trend essentially here, 533 00:25:57,800 --> 00:25:59,920 Speaker 1: I am going against the trend. Yeah. Um, so I 534 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,920 Speaker 1: would say my projection makes the line four. So it's 535 00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:07,160 Speaker 1: not something I'm gonna be looking at to bet either direction. 536 00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:09,879 Speaker 1: I will say I do love betting games that have 537 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:13,159 Speaker 1: a lot of uncertainty, and obviously to have being the 538 00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 1: new quarterback for the Dolphins, who, by the way, this 539 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:17,159 Speaker 1: bye week we call it a bye week, but look 540 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:21,639 Speaker 1: they're integrating a brand new quarterback, a rookie quarterback. So like, like, 541 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 1: how much extra rest and extra prep is it when 542 00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:26,840 Speaker 1: you're really kind of you know, crash course cramming to 543 00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,920 Speaker 1: with all of the new offensive stuff that you're implementing. Um, 544 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,320 Speaker 1: it's interesting spot. I'll just say this. It is I 545 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:34,760 Speaker 1: think the fourth or fifth time now in eight weeks 546 00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,119 Speaker 1: the Rams have had to travel from the west coast 547 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,359 Speaker 1: all the way to the east coast. So it's a 548 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:43,399 Speaker 1: pretty tough spot regardless of the rest disadvantage. And I 549 00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,119 Speaker 1: do think that in general. Um, you know, there was 550 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,840 Speaker 1: a really good article put out this week about Brandon's 551 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,240 Speaker 1: daily to the new young defensive coordinator for the Los 552 00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,480 Speaker 1: Angeles Rams and what they're doing kind of bring a 553 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,480 Speaker 1: collegiate style of defense to the NFL and how it's 554 00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,440 Speaker 1: been working so far and you can't run on this team. 555 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:01,680 Speaker 1: Look if who was able to make passes and make 556 00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:03,520 Speaker 1: throws and then he can make plays with his legs 557 00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,000 Speaker 1: like he did in Alabama, Like, that's just gonna open 558 00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,479 Speaker 1: up everything. So I'm really curious to see, like are 559 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,480 Speaker 1: the Rams really just gonna sell out against the run 560 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:12,439 Speaker 1: and say, hey, two, what we dare you to beat us? 561 00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,399 Speaker 1: Or are they gonna try to play more balanced? It's 562 00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:18,240 Speaker 1: this is why I'm kind of getting at though. If 563 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,600 Speaker 1: you were to look at Ryan Fitzpatrick in this season, 564 00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:24,639 Speaker 1: the year too, in his first start ever against this 565 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,840 Speaker 1: Rams defense, a downgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick and the year 566 00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:32,159 Speaker 1: probably I have this Rams minus four if Fitzpatrick was 567 00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 1: under center. We think two is more often than out 568 00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,800 Speaker 1: of downgrade. I would actually lead lean to the Rams side. 569 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 1: If it gets to minus three, I probably would actually 570 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,720 Speaker 1: bend l a. Okay, so you did mention the Rams 571 00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,760 Speaker 1: defense can't run on them. Um. You know, president, They've 572 00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,440 Speaker 1: played arguably the weakest schedule in the league. They played 573 00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:52,640 Speaker 1: everyone brings up the NFC East, I know, and and 574 00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 1: the Bears. We saw that their one dimensional. It's like 575 00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:59,199 Speaker 1: Alan Robinson or bust Um. I don't know. Something's just 576 00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:01,000 Speaker 1: telling me that my and he's gonna be live here 577 00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:04,360 Speaker 1: and I don't listen. I'm conditioned not to like them 578 00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:07,320 Speaker 1: as a jet sky um, but they're definitely going to 579 00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:10,719 Speaker 1: be in my um in a teaser leg for me. 580 00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:12,439 Speaker 1: Let me ask you want to ask last question on 581 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:15,840 Speaker 1: the psychology of Tuah. So Fitzpatrick was playing at a 582 00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:18,320 Speaker 1: at above average level. I think he was top fifteen 583 00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:22,159 Speaker 1: quarterback per Football Outsiders, like according to their d v 584 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:23,560 Speaker 1: o A and all their rankings. I think he was 585 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:28,639 Speaker 1: top fifteen or sixteen in the league. Why pull him 586 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:32,560 Speaker 1: unless you've seen some oh my gosh, mind blowing stuff 587 00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:36,400 Speaker 1: in practice out of Tuah or they saw something that 588 00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:39,280 Speaker 1: this is a spot for him coming off to buy 589 00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,479 Speaker 1: because I can't. There's no pressure to play him when 590 00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:44,240 Speaker 1: they're playing well. I mean, unless you count that Herbert 591 00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,680 Speaker 1: looks great and Burrow looks great. But Uh, those teams 592 00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:49,960 Speaker 1: have losing records and aren't in the playoff mix. Miami's 593 00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,680 Speaker 1: there with Fitzpatrick trying to get into the psychology if 594 00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:54,440 Speaker 1: you can. So when I was writing up this game 595 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:56,640 Speaker 1: on Sunday night, kind of as a look ahead for 596 00:28:56,760 --> 00:29:00,040 Speaker 1: next week at ESPN, I didn't even realize this for 597 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 1: I started digging in and I don't know if you've 598 00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:04,840 Speaker 1: heard this now this week, the Dolphins have a plus 599 00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:07,960 Speaker 1: forty seven point deferential. I think it's it's the sixth 600 00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:10,520 Speaker 1: best in the NFL. And you're right, Fitzpatrick. Look his 601 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 1: qb R. He's fifth in the NFL. I think an 602 00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 1: EPA expected points added he's uh like either tenth or eleventh, 603 00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,760 Speaker 1: Like he's fringe top ten. So you're right, like they've 604 00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,240 Speaker 1: been playing out of this world. They're Honestly, they're three 605 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 1: and three record is a little bit unlucky when you 606 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,280 Speaker 1: look at the actual point differential, and I think this 607 00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,640 Speaker 1: is what it was. I just think this is not 608 00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:30,840 Speaker 1: to compare it to Blake Snell in the World Series 609 00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:34,440 Speaker 1: Game six, obviously way more high leverage than this Dolphins situation. 610 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,000 Speaker 1: But if they went into the season saying, hey, we're 611 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:38,719 Speaker 1: gonna make sure to his healthy. We're gonna make sure 612 00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 1: he's getting reps seeing things unfold. We have our by 613 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:44,360 Speaker 1: week in week seven, like we're gonna play six games, 614 00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,360 Speaker 1: and the best spot to let to a take over 615 00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:49,000 Speaker 1: in his first start is going to be when we 616 00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:51,480 Speaker 1: have two weeks to prep for him. Let's just no 617 00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:54,240 Speaker 1: matter what happens here, we're just gonna start to UH 618 00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,160 Speaker 1: in this seventh game against the Rams and they play 619 00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:58,840 Speaker 1: in that two months ago. That's my best assumption that 620 00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,200 Speaker 1: it's that combined with big your stuff, and if he's 621 00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:03,520 Speaker 1: the future of your franchise, now is the time to 622 00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 1: implement him and see where he can take you. Alright, 623 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,200 Speaker 1: So two more games I want to buzz through. UM, 624 00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:13,440 Speaker 1: let's got Seattle and San Francisco, and UM, I think 625 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:16,720 Speaker 1: we touched on the line movement earlier. It was I 626 00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:19,360 Speaker 1: think six. On the look ahead, it's down to three. 627 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,080 Speaker 1: UM for me, this is Seattle or nothing. And everywhere 628 00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:24,880 Speaker 1: I look, it's like all the forty niners are back 629 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,560 Speaker 1: like Preston. And this is the thing that can't come 630 00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:32,560 Speaker 1: across in the analytics. UM. You know, the machine spits out, 631 00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:35,720 Speaker 1: the algorithm spits out a number like you can't see 632 00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:37,920 Speaker 1: that the last two weeks of forty Niners have got 633 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,200 Speaker 1: right against teams that can't stop the run. What does 634 00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:43,160 Speaker 1: Seattle do best? They stopped the run. I think their 635 00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,040 Speaker 1: top ten stopping the run. Now, Kyler Murray had a 636 00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:48,160 Speaker 1: nice game, but Jimmy Garoppolo is not Kyler Murray. Um. 637 00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:49,800 Speaker 1: And I know they're on track to give up the 638 00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,640 Speaker 1: most yards ever and everybody says their defense is terrible 639 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:56,080 Speaker 1: and that's not untrue. But in this spot, for this game, 640 00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:59,600 Speaker 1: I feel like Seattle's got an edge there. So I 641 00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,080 Speaker 1: agree with you about this actual matchup. Now, I would 642 00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:04,880 Speaker 1: disagree in saying that analytics don't pick this up. Look 643 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,160 Speaker 1: they do. If you're if you're really you know, doing stuff, 644 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,000 Speaker 1: you're gonna realize, like, hey, the Vanders did get right 645 00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,959 Speaker 1: and the Bram's win was impressive. Then they just dominated 646 00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,560 Speaker 1: the paths, who are a mess. But when you're looking 647 00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,200 Speaker 1: at this game, you know it's gonna jump out of 648 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:19,680 Speaker 1: the page that Hey, for one, I think the overreaction 649 00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:21,680 Speaker 1: to what happened to Seattle when they probabably should have 650 00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:23,480 Speaker 1: won that game. So it wasn't for the penalty on 651 00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:26,120 Speaker 1: the field goal trying to block the kick, like the 652 00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,440 Speaker 1: overreaction that they lose that game and Russell Wilson ends 653 00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,200 Speaker 1: up throwing three interceptions with the one in overtime, Like 654 00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:33,320 Speaker 1: this line is coming down. But look, you mentioned it. 655 00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:36,360 Speaker 1: Not only I think are the eighth in rush efficiency 656 00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,600 Speaker 1: as far as their defense is concerned, just their overall 657 00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,760 Speaker 1: defense gets a bad reputation there nine and expected points 658 00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,160 Speaker 1: at it defensively, so they're blow average, but they're not 659 00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,600 Speaker 1: like bottom bottom bottom of the league. And this is 660 00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,479 Speaker 1: with the defense that got Jamal Adams over and they 661 00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:51,280 Speaker 1: haven't had him since Week three when he got injured 662 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,760 Speaker 1: with his groin, who is questionable to actually potentially return 663 00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:56,800 Speaker 1: this week, which would be a nice bonus. They just 664 00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,640 Speaker 1: traded for Carlos Dunlap to share the defensive line some 665 00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:01,800 Speaker 1: more so. And here's the other thing. The teams that 666 00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:03,440 Speaker 1: have beat him, it's like you mentioned, like they're just 667 00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:05,880 Speaker 1: doing it through the air. But what does San Francisco do. 668 00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:08,320 Speaker 1: They don't throw with Jimmy g forty to fifty times, 669 00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:11,000 Speaker 1: like they're gonna try to play a balanced run first attack, 670 00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,840 Speaker 1: and that plays into what Seattle's at least strength of 671 00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:15,880 Speaker 1: their defense can do. And I mean, if you want 672 00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:17,840 Speaker 1: to look at the running backs for Seattle that are 673 00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:21,000 Speaker 1: out Carlos Hide and Chris Carson's I can find. I'm 674 00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:24,320 Speaker 1: fine with Russell Wilson throwing more like like the best 675 00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:27,240 Speaker 1: option they have. Anyways, I really do like Seattle. It's 676 00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:29,920 Speaker 1: something I just haven't understood. The line and minus two 677 00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:31,560 Speaker 1: and a halves out there still like you can get 678 00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:33,400 Speaker 1: the minus three's a plus money. I think it's a 679 00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:37,840 Speaker 1: great beat, So let me do quickly. Deebo Samuel, like 680 00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:41,320 Speaker 1: the no algorithm is gonna say he's worth a point 681 00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:44,280 Speaker 1: or a half a point, right, He's just he's just 682 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:48,160 Speaker 1: a wide receiver. But if you watch what they do offensively, 683 00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:52,000 Speaker 1: I would say, after George Kittle, Deebo Samuels their second 684 00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:54,800 Speaker 1: most important guy. They can they can do him on sweeps. 685 00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:56,960 Speaker 1: He's their toughest receiver. It's like, let's get him the 686 00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:59,880 Speaker 1: ball in space. He can make plays when you remove 687 00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:03,280 Speaker 1: him from the equation. I don't know who vertically scares 688 00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:06,120 Speaker 1: you on the San Francisco team. Uh, you know, just 689 00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,440 Speaker 1: put two guys on Kittle and say, you know what 690 00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:12,960 Speaker 1: we will let uh Jeric McKinnon and Jamachael Hasty. The 691 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:16,600 Speaker 1: running backs go to work good luck. Like Deebo Samuel, 692 00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:19,040 Speaker 1: how do you factor him in because when you watch them, 693 00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,760 Speaker 1: you know, without him their offense stinks. Yeah, no, it's 694 00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,400 Speaker 1: a great point. With him being out, you can It's 695 00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:27,200 Speaker 1: it's a lot like you see it with the Kansas 696 00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:28,800 Speaker 1: City Chiefs. Like you wish you could put two or 697 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:31,240 Speaker 1: three guys on Travis Kelsey, but you can't because you 698 00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:33,680 Speaker 1: have Tyree Hill and Sammy Watkins and all these options, 699 00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:35,600 Speaker 1: and Mahomes will make sure he finds the right guy. 700 00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:38,640 Speaker 1: And believe me, if anyone can scheme receivers open, it's 701 00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:40,560 Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan. But at some point if you just don't 702 00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,360 Speaker 1: have receivers were singing with the Patriots that can get open, 703 00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:45,680 Speaker 1: then it doesn't matter. And so you're absolutely right, like 704 00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,560 Speaker 1: this gives the ability out of Seattle to take away 705 00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:51,920 Speaker 1: George Kittle, which is their main option. Without Diebo Samuel, 706 00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:53,720 Speaker 1: there is a weapon. So and you're right, it's really 707 00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:56,400 Speaker 1: tough for people that are modeling the NFL and projecting 708 00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:58,080 Speaker 1: like you can't just kind of do like your power 709 00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:00,400 Speaker 1: numbers anymore, Like you have to have like actual, like 710 00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:04,760 Speaker 1: a player level model that evaluates what is Deebo Samuel's gravity. 711 00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,120 Speaker 1: We talked about Steph Carrie shooting threes and his gravity 712 00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:09,520 Speaker 1: to a basketball court and his impact as far as 713 00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:12,080 Speaker 1: that's concerned, even when he's not shooting the basketball. That's 714 00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:14,440 Speaker 1: what you're asking. What is Deebo Samuel worth as far 715 00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:17,240 Speaker 1: as his gravity on a football field? Because he can 716 00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:19,600 Speaker 1: be a deep threat as far as sets defense is concerned, 717 00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:21,680 Speaker 1: or he can just do other things. Crosses over the middle, 718 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:23,960 Speaker 1: they run the ball sometimes with some of their you know, 719 00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,800 Speaker 1: slot guys coming in motion. Like absolutely is a great question. 720 00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:28,640 Speaker 1: What's his value? I couldn't tell you off the top 721 00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:30,719 Speaker 1: of my head where he's at, but obviously it's a 722 00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:33,640 Speaker 1: bonus for Seattle. He'll be off the field. Alright, a game, 723 00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:37,080 Speaker 1: Let me pick a game. We disagree on Chargers and Denver. 724 00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:41,719 Speaker 1: Now we were texting about this and um, it appears, 725 00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:44,480 Speaker 1: you know, I was somebody else said that. I think 726 00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:48,600 Speaker 1: it's right Angle Sports gave out a buy on you know, 727 00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:51,239 Speaker 1: or they gave a release on the Chargers at either 728 00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:52,919 Speaker 1: minus two or minus two and a half, and that's 729 00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:55,360 Speaker 1: what drove the line up to three. Right Angle Sports 730 00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:57,359 Speaker 1: is one of these gambling outfits. You pay them for picks. 731 00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:58,920 Speaker 1: I don't know how they do. I don't pay anybody 732 00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:01,799 Speaker 1: for picks. Do you pay anybody for picks? Uh? No, 733 00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:06,319 Speaker 1: I don't. Yeah, yeah, So I don't know if the 734 00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:09,080 Speaker 1: Chargers on the side, But when I when I look 735 00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:11,680 Speaker 1: at some of the stuff that they're doing versus Denver 736 00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:15,600 Speaker 1: and Drew Lock, I know it's Anthony Lynn on the road, 737 00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:20,600 Speaker 1: rookie quarterback, favored vic Fangio defense. I think I want 738 00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:22,279 Speaker 1: to take the Chargers here. Talk to me out of it. 739 00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:24,520 Speaker 1: I think talking to you out of it. It's just 740 00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,440 Speaker 1: that you're paying such a premium. It's just like at 741 00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:30,239 Speaker 1: some point it comes down to what the number is. 742 00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:32,960 Speaker 1: Like I think more often than I project the Chargers 743 00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:35,800 Speaker 1: to win the game is slightly more often in the Broncos. 744 00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,000 Speaker 1: But just like from a market perspective, let's let's just 745 00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:40,400 Speaker 1: take a look at this. Last week, Denver was plus 746 00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:42,160 Speaker 1: nine and a half at home to the Chiefs, and 747 00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:44,520 Speaker 1: this was bet all the way down to seven and 748 00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:47,359 Speaker 1: even some six and a half's on Sunday morning. All right, 749 00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:49,680 Speaker 1: and now you're saying the Chargers, I mean they're minus 750 00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:52,320 Speaker 1: three minus one. You can get plus money, or you 751 00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:53,680 Speaker 1: could buy to a three and a half if you 752 00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,319 Speaker 1: want that extra hook on the key number of three. Well, wait, 753 00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:59,640 Speaker 1: hold on, hold on. Was some of that Chiefs Denver 754 00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:01,840 Speaker 1: lined that go down because of the snow or was 755 00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,879 Speaker 1: it something else that's it's probably a combination of people 756 00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,440 Speaker 1: wanted to bet the Broncos anyways, But because the total 757 00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:09,440 Speaker 1: was coming down, then the spread came down as well. 758 00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:10,759 Speaker 1: But but to go from nine and a half and 759 00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:13,560 Speaker 1: push through seven at some shops like that's that's a 760 00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:16,440 Speaker 1: legitimate move on the Denver side. And so when you 761 00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:18,279 Speaker 1: line up six and a half seven to this one 762 00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:20,759 Speaker 1: being three three and a half, like I think most 763 00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:22,879 Speaker 1: people would say the Chiefs are more than three three 764 00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:25,200 Speaker 1: and a half points better than the Chargers. But these 765 00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:27,640 Speaker 1: lines imply that the Charges there's only three or three 766 00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:28,960 Speaker 1: and a half points worse than the Chiefs on a 767 00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:31,799 Speaker 1: neutral field. I just disagree with it. And as great 768 00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,520 Speaker 1: as Justin Herbert has looked at times, look, let's just 769 00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:35,880 Speaker 1: look at the rest of this. And by the way, 770 00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:38,759 Speaker 1: last week was against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who everyone anticipated 771 00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,040 Speaker 1: would be historically bad this year, and they were losing 772 00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:43,640 Speaker 1: that game late third quarter by a touchdown. But just 773 00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:45,400 Speaker 1: look at the defenses, all right, This is where the 774 00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:48,120 Speaker 1: advantages for Denver there are top ten and success rate 775 00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:50,560 Speaker 1: both against the past on the run, the Charges are 776 00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:53,960 Speaker 1: outside the top ten in both. Right, your home field advantage, 777 00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:55,960 Speaker 1: which is an altitude, is something that obviously the Lost 778 00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:59,520 Speaker 1: Angeles Chargers are not accustomed to, especially with the rookie quarterback. 779 00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:02,719 Speaker 1: And you're getting now three points at plus money. I 780 00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,600 Speaker 1: I like Denver just because the number is just too 781 00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:08,160 Speaker 1: extreme the other way. I wasn't looking to bet Denver 782 00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:09,680 Speaker 1: at all. They're not a team I want to bet 783 00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:11,279 Speaker 1: when they lose by a hundred of the Chiefs the 784 00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:13,360 Speaker 1: week prior. When you're giving me plus money on a 785 00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:15,799 Speaker 1: three at home here, I gotta take it. Alright, fine, 786 00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:18,120 Speaker 1: let's I will. I will pass on the Chargers and 787 00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:20,440 Speaker 1: the contest. Thank you pressing? All right? So the game 788 00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:24,160 Speaker 1: of biggest game of the week, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Uh, listen, 789 00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:27,320 Speaker 1: I've been prattling on all week that I don't care 790 00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:30,640 Speaker 1: that this public is on the Steelers um and you 791 00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:33,200 Speaker 1: can chime in on this whole public sharp debate and 792 00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:36,080 Speaker 1: if you want. But I just personally don't know how 793 00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:39,240 Speaker 1: good Baltimore is this year. You remove the Cleveland victory 794 00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:42,080 Speaker 1: in the opener and their record. The opponents for the 795 00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:46,360 Speaker 1: Ravens so far are six twenty and one and the 796 00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:49,239 Speaker 1: numbers for them offensively are way down. They played one 797 00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:52,240 Speaker 1: good team and they got smacked around by the Chiefs. 798 00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:55,239 Speaker 1: I don't know how good Baltimore is, and I am 799 00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:58,359 Speaker 1: more than willing to take the Steelers. I took him 800 00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:00,719 Speaker 1: at five and four and even took them to three 801 00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:04,359 Speaker 1: and a half. Maybe I'm being greedy. Um, I like 802 00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:07,399 Speaker 1: Tomlin in this spot, this always feels like a three 803 00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:10,680 Speaker 1: point game. This this battle between these two rivals. I 804 00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,080 Speaker 1: don't know, man, where are you on this game? So 805 00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:16,080 Speaker 1: that's definitely going to be the sentiment all weeks. You'll 806 00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:18,520 Speaker 1: hear everyone in media will say, you know, this is 807 00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:21,520 Speaker 1: a divisional rivalry game. You have to take, you know, 808 00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:24,520 Speaker 1: over a field goal because you know it's always a 809 00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:27,279 Speaker 1: three point game or a close game, which it's been 810 00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:30,640 Speaker 1: the case more often than not in the past. When 811 00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:32,520 Speaker 1: it when it's all said and done, Like, I don't 812 00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,000 Speaker 1: know what you say. Okay, so you're you're not sure 813 00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:37,280 Speaker 1: about Baltimore, which I guess I can kind of understand 814 00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:40,120 Speaker 1: where you're coming from. The team is very similar to 815 00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:42,799 Speaker 1: the last year's team and last year's team outside of 816 00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,000 Speaker 1: going over five on fourth down against the Titans in 817 00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:47,279 Speaker 1: the playoffs, like most people thought they were the best 818 00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:50,360 Speaker 1: team or close to it in the NFL. Regardless, you 819 00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:52,799 Speaker 1: would say they were top five. So I mean, it's 820 00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:54,560 Speaker 1: not like we only have data this season on Lamar 821 00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:56,719 Speaker 1: Jackson at quarterback, like you have to look back a 822 00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:58,399 Speaker 1: little bit more. And they were a top team last 823 00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:01,640 Speaker 1: year too. So for me going and you know, projecting 824 00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,399 Speaker 1: everything out, I wouldn't bet minus four, but I did 825 00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:07,160 Speaker 1: bet some minus three and a half my projections a 826 00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:09,959 Speaker 1: little bit over for but ultimately for this, what came 827 00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:12,520 Speaker 1: down to was what if the Steelers done You know, 828 00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:14,839 Speaker 1: everyone talks about their defense and then their offense has 829 00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:17,200 Speaker 1: been doing well. I looked into this like Denver was 830 00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:19,000 Speaker 1: the best defense they've placed when you look at d 831 00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:21,800 Speaker 1: v O eight grades, Denver seventh and d v O A. 832 00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:23,759 Speaker 1: And they almost lost the game to Denver at home. 833 00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:25,359 Speaker 1: By the way, it was Jeff Driscoll who took over 834 00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:28,960 Speaker 1: for Denver quarterback almost beat the Steelers. All the other teams, Houston, 835 00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:32,280 Speaker 1: the Giants, who else, the Eagles, the Titans, the Browns, 836 00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:34,400 Speaker 1: These are all teams that are back half or you know, 837 00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:37,239 Speaker 1: a lot worse. In defense, the Ravens are by far 838 00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:39,600 Speaker 1: the best defense they've seen. Yet. You can beat them 839 00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:40,959 Speaker 1: with the run, you can't beat them with the past. 840 00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:43,640 Speaker 1: This is if you're saying, oh, this is Baltimore's next 841 00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:45,960 Speaker 1: biggest test other than Kansas City where they fell behind 842 00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:48,400 Speaker 1: and it was tough for them to crawl back. Pittsburgh's 843 00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:51,279 Speaker 1: biggest test too. Let me counter that. And I do 844 00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:56,919 Speaker 1: love this game. President um Chief's offense against the Ravens 845 00:39:57,040 --> 00:40:02,240 Speaker 1: downs seventeen yards seven point one yards per play. Uh. 846 00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:06,120 Speaker 1: The other quarterbacks they faced besides Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, 847 00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:11,240 Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson, I think it was Dayne Haskins, Yeah, Dwayne Haskins, 848 00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:16,120 Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, Carson Wentz. Um. I would say Ben Roethlisberger's 849 00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,960 Speaker 1: having a better season than all those guys other than Mahomes, 850 00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:22,120 Speaker 1: and Roethlisberger hasn't even been great. Um. But the other 851 00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:24,279 Speaker 1: thing I would like you to counter when you look 852 00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:27,719 Speaker 1: at Prior's last year, Lamar faced this Steelers defense. He 853 00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:31,200 Speaker 1: was sacked five times and picked off three times. If 854 00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:34,480 Speaker 1: you toss in his allegedly gimpie knee where he did 855 00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:37,120 Speaker 1: not run at all against Cincinnati. He did have one 856 00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:40,759 Speaker 1: scoot for a touchdown against the Eagles. Do you anticipate 857 00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:43,600 Speaker 1: him running in this game? Yeah, he ended up running 858 00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:45,319 Speaker 1: for I think he had that breakaway. He ended up 859 00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:47,800 Speaker 1: running for over a hundred yards though, I think total 860 00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:50,040 Speaker 1: in that game. So they sat him out for those 861 00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:52,440 Speaker 1: two practices and I even got caught betting his rushing 862 00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:55,359 Speaker 1: air total under oh yeah, one oh eight. And yeah, 863 00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:57,080 Speaker 1: so he ended I mean, he's been running the football 864 00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:59,000 Speaker 1: and it looks like he's okay. So I think that's 865 00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:01,760 Speaker 1: kind of flown past. But I don't know. Five sacks 866 00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:06,759 Speaker 1: and two matchups last year isn't two concerning. But well, 867 00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:09,640 Speaker 1: I don't think he played in Week seventeen. I think 868 00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:11,520 Speaker 1: it was just you're probably right, so you're talking about 869 00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:14,000 Speaker 1: in the one game through three picks and yeah, yeah 870 00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:16,319 Speaker 1: he struggled. Now they won because they were playing you know, 871 00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,960 Speaker 1: the bum of a quarterback whoever was filling in um 872 00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:23,439 Speaker 1: for for Big Budge, one of those two guys. Yeah, 873 00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:26,239 Speaker 1: does any of that matter to you? That last year 874 00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:29,920 Speaker 1: they saw Lamar when he was at his apex, dominating 875 00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:32,799 Speaker 1: the league, and they shut him down. And this year 876 00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:36,040 Speaker 1: and maybe It's just me, but something feels off about 877 00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:38,440 Speaker 1: this offense. It just doesn't seem as dominant as life. 878 00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:40,279 Speaker 1: I've heard a lot of people say that, and it's 879 00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:44,200 Speaker 1: hard to gauge in value. Something feels off like that line. 880 00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:46,719 Speaker 1: I've heard it about the Ravens offense. I've heard it 881 00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:48,520 Speaker 1: about a few other things. And let me try this, 882 00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:52,040 Speaker 1: let me try this. He hasn't Lamar Jackson hasn't had 883 00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:54,480 Speaker 1: thrown for over two hundred yards in like four weeks. 884 00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:56,680 Speaker 1: And I think the Ravens have the least amount of 885 00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:59,239 Speaker 1: passing yards. I know they're playing a week schedule to 886 00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:03,640 Speaker 1: haven't down right, I don't know it's fair question matter. 887 00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:06,799 Speaker 1: It's still relatively early. What's great about the NFL? Great? 888 00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,040 Speaker 1: Or you hate it as a better But like, the 889 00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,680 Speaker 1: sample sizes are also small because the season is only 890 00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:14,799 Speaker 1: sixteen games anyways, and so we're, you know, you know, 891 00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:17,759 Speaker 1: six games in and you're trying to make these decisions 892 00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:19,640 Speaker 1: and you have to go with the data you have, 893 00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:21,480 Speaker 1: and you question, like do I do I take that 894 00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:23,359 Speaker 1: into account from last year or he had a bad game. 895 00:42:23,360 --> 00:42:25,520 Speaker 1: I'll tell you it's weighted into the data at least 896 00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:28,280 Speaker 1: to all extent because it's part of what his numbers 897 00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:31,040 Speaker 1: are and what I'm projecting out. But do I weigh 898 00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:33,960 Speaker 1: at like extra for any reason. No, it could have 899 00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:35,640 Speaker 1: just been that it was any other game, and I 900 00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:37,920 Speaker 1: think they'll make adjustments, and obviously he's gonna want to 901 00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:41,680 Speaker 1: have a better showing in this divisional rivalry game. Alright, So, uh, 902 00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:44,799 Speaker 1: listen some different sides, listen present. I could do this 903 00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:48,400 Speaker 1: easily an hour, but you know, they try to limit 904 00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:50,879 Speaker 1: the length of the podcast. I guess the listeners don't 905 00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:54,080 Speaker 1: tune into the hour long podcast. But I love just 906 00:42:54,160 --> 00:42:56,000 Speaker 1: breaking it down. Now. I know you you said something 907 00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:59,680 Speaker 1: that's interesting, like, no matter any stat I throw at you, 908 00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:02,360 Speaker 1: that's baked into the number, right, at least for the 909 00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:06,799 Speaker 1: best deminals to some extent. So then what edge can 910 00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:11,160 Speaker 1: you find other than when you say, like, um, you know, 911 00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:14,319 Speaker 1: the Chiefs were X amount favors against the Broncos and 912 00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:17,440 Speaker 1: now the Broncos were giving three to the Chargers, Like 913 00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:20,319 Speaker 1: is that an edge you can find? That's just kind 914 00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:23,120 Speaker 1: of assessing the market to try to help explain and 915 00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:26,080 Speaker 1: give context to listeners, like this is why I think 916 00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:28,279 Speaker 1: the Chargers line is too high, because like if the 917 00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:30,920 Speaker 1: Chiefs were minus six and a half minus seven against 918 00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:33,640 Speaker 1: the Broncos. Why are the Chargers three three and a half? Now? 919 00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:36,600 Speaker 1: I actually thought the Chief's line had gone too low, 920 00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:38,920 Speaker 1: and I ended up betting some minus seven plus one 921 00:43:39,120 --> 00:43:41,160 Speaker 1: dred So for me, it was a combination of the 922 00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:43,239 Speaker 1: Chiefs line kind of got a little too extreme as 923 00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:45,680 Speaker 1: far as it going down, and then in this case, 924 00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:47,360 Speaker 1: I think it's just too extreme as far as the 925 00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:50,279 Speaker 1: Chargers going up. But ultimately, like the margins are so 926 00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:52,719 Speaker 1: thin in the NFL, and it's one of these things 927 00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:54,399 Speaker 1: like if this was two and a half, like I'm 928 00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:56,480 Speaker 1: never betting the Broncos plus two and a half. I 929 00:43:56,520 --> 00:43:59,239 Speaker 1: actually don't even love plus three. But if you can 930 00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:01,920 Speaker 1: get plus three plus money or plus three and a 931 00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:05,200 Speaker 1: half at minus one twenty year better, then those are worthwhile. 932 00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:07,600 Speaker 1: So ultimately it ends up just kind of being I'm asking, 933 00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:09,560 Speaker 1: and it's like, if I can get five ten cents 934 00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:12,440 Speaker 1: of an advantage here on key numbers, then that's the 935 00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:14,520 Speaker 1: ones that I'm gonna be betting. Those are the ones 936 00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:16,640 Speaker 1: I'm betting, I should say, and you know, if if not, 937 00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:20,160 Speaker 1: I'm just passing. So He's Preston Johnson, a k A 938 00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:23,160 Speaker 1: sports cheetah. And if I showed up at your front 939 00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:26,400 Speaker 1: door and said I'm making you bet five on an 940 00:44:26,480 --> 00:44:29,440 Speaker 1: NFL side this weekend, or you're never allowed to gimble 941 00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:32,280 Speaker 1: for the rest of your life. Um, what's your side 942 00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:39,160 Speaker 1: at Seattle? Good? That? All right? There it is, Preston. 943 00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:41,600 Speaker 1: Now we'll celebrate next time you're out here in l A. 944 00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:43,360 Speaker 1: All right, man, hey, keep up the great work. You 945 00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:46,440 Speaker 1: guys need to follow him. And he's really smart. All right, Preston, 946 00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:51,080 Speaker 1: have a great weekend. The only thing better than sitting 947 00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:55,200 Speaker 1: on your couch watching the game. He's making money while 948 00:44:55,280 --> 00:45:00,080 Speaker 1: you do it. Here's your best bet, all right, And 949 00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:02,400 Speaker 1: as we do every Friday, we wrap up with the 950 00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:04,960 Speaker 1: best bet. Some podcasts give out one pick, some maybe 951 00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:08,000 Speaker 1: give out two. Every Friday. I'm delivering three. And we 952 00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:11,799 Speaker 1: are on fire. Literally, it's been a great run. We're 953 00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:16,480 Speaker 1: still over listen, guys gambling on the NFL. Obviously we've 954 00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:19,880 Speaker 1: micked in some mixed in some NBA, but it's difficult. 955 00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:22,680 Speaker 1: If you hit fifty five, fifty six, fifty seven percent 956 00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:25,080 Speaker 1: over the long haul, that's great. So us off to 957 00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:27,719 Speaker 1: this good start is great. Didn't get there with Carolina, 958 00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:31,120 Speaker 1: So the best bet thirty seven, twenty four and five. 959 00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:35,760 Speaker 1: Here are your three NFL picks for Sunday. I'm opening 960 00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:38,080 Speaker 1: with a game presson and I went into deep. I 961 00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:41,880 Speaker 1: don't need to repeat it. Seattle favored by three. Listen, 962 00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:44,080 Speaker 1: if you can get it to five, Oh my gosh, 963 00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:46,560 Speaker 1: you gotta take that. I think Seattle is definitely decide 964 00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:49,239 Speaker 1: you're probably my favorite pick of the weekend. Just two 965 00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:52,800 Speaker 1: numbers to throw out your real quick Russell Wilson owns 966 00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:57,000 Speaker 1: San France eleven four and one against the spread, and um, 967 00:45:57,360 --> 00:45:59,040 Speaker 1: I don't know if it matters that much, but Pete 968 00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:02,319 Speaker 1: Carroll after a loss is dynamite. You know, the guy 969 00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:05,080 Speaker 1: gets right back in the lab thirty five nineteen and 970 00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:08,239 Speaker 1: three against the spread. And again, not a huge trend guy, 971 00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:10,760 Speaker 1: but we hit you with the analysis earlier. Seattle favored 972 00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:15,160 Speaker 1: by three is the first pick. Pittsburgh Steelers getting four 973 00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:17,120 Speaker 1: in Baltimore. Now listen, if you can get four and 974 00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:20,160 Speaker 1: a half or five. For the purposes of the best bet, 975 00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:24,480 Speaker 1: we're going with the lines I see this morning Friday, 976 00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:28,400 Speaker 1: October and listen again. You know Preston said, if you 977 00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:30,719 Speaker 1: can get it to five on Seattle, great If this 978 00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:33,560 Speaker 1: balloons up and Baltimore is back at five. I mean, 979 00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:36,279 Speaker 1: obviously you gotta take five. You have to. Now, then 980 00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:39,120 Speaker 1: the problem becomes, do you wait? Listen, maybe you take 981 00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:41,239 Speaker 1: the four and then you take the five too. You 982 00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:43,400 Speaker 1: get a little greedy. But I really like Pittsburgh in 983 00:46:43,400 --> 00:46:47,440 Speaker 1: this spot. Listen, it's possible that Baltimore is nearly as 984 00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:49,480 Speaker 1: good as the fourteen and two, the team they were 985 00:46:49,560 --> 00:46:51,719 Speaker 1: last year. Just prove it to us. Let's see it, 986 00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:55,040 Speaker 1: because I haven't seen that this year. And I don't 987 00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:57,160 Speaker 1: want to hear about beating up on the Browns. Everybody 988 00:46:57,480 --> 00:46:59,680 Speaker 1: good does that. I don't want to hear about beating 989 00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:03,800 Speaker 1: up on Washington or Cincinnati. Show me what you got. 990 00:47:04,239 --> 00:47:06,279 Speaker 1: When Lamar is gonna have to drop back and beat 991 00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:08,440 Speaker 1: up on this Pittsburgh secondary, Can he do that? I 992 00:47:08,440 --> 00:47:10,480 Speaker 1: don't know, because we know they ain't gonna run on him. 993 00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:12,799 Speaker 1: So Pittsburgh plus four is my second bet and the 994 00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:16,200 Speaker 1: third bet. I really wanted to go with Miami. I 995 00:47:16,239 --> 00:47:19,160 Speaker 1: like Tennessee a lot, but ultimately I can't get over 996 00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:22,560 Speaker 1: this bear's injury report, and I'm gonna go with the Saints. 997 00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:26,640 Speaker 1: I'm seeing currently four and a half, but this looks 998 00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:29,360 Speaker 1: like it could go higher. Khalil Mack did not practice 999 00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:32,239 Speaker 1: Wednesday and Thursday. Cody white Hair, their center, did not 1000 00:47:32,280 --> 00:47:34,799 Speaker 1: practice Wednesday and Thursday, and then the big one as 1001 00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:37,640 Speaker 1: if Khalil Mack is not big, Allen Robinson in concussion 1002 00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:41,280 Speaker 1: protocol did not practice Wednesday or Thursday. If they lose 1003 00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:44,200 Speaker 1: either of those guys, it's bad. If they lose two, 1004 00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:46,839 Speaker 1: it's really bad. If they lose three, we might see 1005 00:47:46,880 --> 00:47:48,799 Speaker 1: this line touch six. I don't care that it's the 1006 00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:52,480 Speaker 1: Saints first game outdoors. Okay, I know Drew Brees has 1007 00:47:52,520 --> 00:47:57,040 Speaker 1: a weak arm, and Michael Thomas is giving people problems. 1008 00:47:57,040 --> 00:48:00,399 Speaker 1: He hasn't played in forever. Emmanuel Sanders is he coming 1009 00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:02,200 Speaker 1: off the COVID list? I don't know, But I do 1010 00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:04,760 Speaker 1: know that the Saints run defense top ten in the league. 1011 00:48:05,000 --> 00:48:07,360 Speaker 1: And if the Bears can't run and there's no Allen Robinson, 1012 00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:10,319 Speaker 1: what is this going to be the Cold Commet game? 1013 00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:11,799 Speaker 1: I mean, I like the kid out of Notre Dame 1014 00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:14,279 Speaker 1: there tight end, But I mean, is that really good 1015 00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:17,279 Speaker 1: the game plan? So give me the Saints at four 1016 00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:22,560 Speaker 1: and a half. Rounding out the best bets. Seattle favored 1017 00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:26,520 Speaker 1: by three, Pittsburgh getting four, Saints by four and a half. 1018 00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:28,560 Speaker 1: All right, I will do a proper goodbye. I hope 1019 00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:32,600 Speaker 1: everybody has a safe, happy Halloween. You eat the candy. 1020 00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:35,839 Speaker 1: I love me some TwixT bars, Skittles, gummy bears, all 1021 00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:39,120 Speaker 1: that sugary stuff that's not healthy for you. Give it 1022 00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:41,920 Speaker 1: to me. All I was stealing my kids candy all weekend. 1023 00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:44,279 Speaker 1: And we'll talk to you guys on Monday.