WEBVTT - Chuck’s Commentary - Republicans Avoid Disaster In Tennessee, But The Midterms Look Great For Democrats + Top 5 Senate Seats A “Wave” Election Could Put In Play 0:00:00.400 --> 0:00:04.080 Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from 0:00:04.080 --> 0:00:07.160 personal experience. I was sixteen when my father passed away. 0:00:07.200 --> 0:00:09.600 We didn't have any money. He didn't leave us in 0:00:09.640 --> 0:00:14.000 the best shape. My mother single mother, now widow, myself 0:00:14.080 --> 0:00:15.880 sixteen trying to figure out how am I going to 0:00:15.920 --> 0:00:19.079 pay for college and lo and behold, my dad had 0:00:19.120 --> 0:00:22.320 one life insurance policy that we found wasn't a lot, 0:00:22.640 --> 0:00:25.360 but it was important at the time, and it's why 0:00:25.480 --> 0:00:28.720 I was able to go to college. Little did he 0:00:28.800 --> 0:00:32.560 know how important that would be in that moment. 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Well, 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:48.960 one of my favorite sayings used to be, if it 0:01:49.000 --> 0:01:52.040 was Tuesday, somebody's voting somewhere, which means, if it's Wednesday, 0:01:52.080 --> 0:01:54.800 we have some election results. And this happens to be 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:58.160 no ordinary Wednesday. It's a day after a special election. 0:01:58.240 --> 0:02:01.120 I know the most devoted of your time podcast subscribers 0:02:01.120 --> 0:02:03.680 and listeners caught our live stream or I hope caught 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:07.080 our live stream election show and partnership with Decision Desk 0:02:07.400 --> 0:02:14.640 HQ and Chris Solisa. We were essentially watching the returns 0:02:14.400 --> 0:02:17.240 with those that chose to watch with us, and we 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:21.760 had another huge turnout. We are overwhelmed by the response 0:02:21.800 --> 0:02:25.320 we've been getting for these election night specials. Let's just say, 0:02:25.320 --> 0:02:29.200 you're you're only encouraging us to do this more and more. 0:02:30.800 --> 0:02:34.640 But in some ways, this is one of those special 0:02:34.639 --> 0:02:38.360 elections where both parties are going to take something away 0:02:38.360 --> 0:02:41.480 that they feel better about. Both parties are going to 0:02:41.520 --> 0:02:43.920 look at this and say what could have been for 0:02:44.000 --> 0:02:46.480 different rays, And in another way you look at it 0:02:46.560 --> 0:02:49.000 is in some ways it changes nothing. It taught us 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:51.320 nothing we didn't already know. So I'm gonna start with 0:02:51.360 --> 0:02:54.359 that part right. In some ways, this special election went 0:02:54.680 --> 0:02:55.760 as expected. 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:56.640 What do I mean by that? 0:02:56.680 --> 0:02:59.040 Well, as Jeffrey Scaling said there at the end, it's 0:02:59.080 --> 0:03:02.280 like the final margin of victory looks like to be 0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:06.000 somewhere around, you know, somewhere between four and six percentage points, 0:03:06.000 --> 0:03:10.000 which means you're looking at it at approximately a sixteen 0:03:10.040 --> 0:03:13.160 to eighteen point Democratic over performance based on the twenty 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:16.880 twenty four results, which is exactly pretty much in line 0:03:16.919 --> 0:03:19.560 with what we've seen with various special elections. We've had 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:23.560 some special congressional elections. Two that happened in Florida one 0:03:23.600 --> 0:03:27.160 had a sixteen point over performance, another one actually had 0:03:27.160 --> 0:03:29.760 a twenty three point over performance for Democrats. Both were 0:03:29.760 --> 0:03:32.400 still Republican victories like this one, but there was this 0:03:32.480 --> 0:03:36.360 over performance right super red districts that suddenly got much 0:03:36.400 --> 0:03:40.920 closer in a special election. In some Democratic victories, their 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:44.080 over performance has been in the sixteen to eighteen point range. 0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:46.400 Why do I keep using this number sixteen to eighteen 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:49.880 And no, I'm not saying six seven. I'm not participating 0:03:49.920 --> 0:03:52.760 in that nonsense. But the importance of that sixteen to 0:03:52.800 --> 0:03:54.960 eighteen point range is that it's about the same number 0:03:55.000 --> 0:03:58.000 that we saw in twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen special 0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:02.800 elections going into that mid cycle, where that over performance 0:04:02.840 --> 0:04:06.600 did end up translating to a good Democratic Knight. But 0:04:06.680 --> 0:04:09.240 of course the question is is twenty twenty six going 0:04:09.280 --> 0:04:11.600 to be another twenty eighteen or it's twenty twenty six 0:04:11.680 --> 0:04:15.800 going to be something bigger, something akin to what Republican 0:04:15.800 --> 0:04:18.680 You know, Republicans nineteen ninety four they swept both the 0:04:18.680 --> 0:04:20.720 House and the Senate, or Democrats two thousand and six, 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:24.520 where they swept both the House and the Senate. When 0:04:24.560 --> 0:04:27.600 you have a to me at this point, a wave 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:31.039 is when you're the party out of power, you're not 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:34.039 holding either of the House and Senate, and after the 0:04:34.080 --> 0:04:36.440 wave hits, you end up controlling both the House and 0:04:36.480 --> 0:04:39.240 the Senate. And I think the question we're all looking 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:43.039 for is, is this in a political environment that is 0:04:43.080 --> 0:04:47.120 developing into a wave for the Democrats right to You know, 0:04:47.160 --> 0:04:51.200 we love our weather metaphors as political prognosticator types, and 0:04:51.600 --> 0:04:54.800 there's clearly a storm brewing, and the question is is 0:04:54.800 --> 0:04:57.159 this going to be you know, to use hurricane terms, 0:04:57.160 --> 0:04:59.400 a Cat two, a Cat three, a Cat four, a 0:04:59.480 --> 0:05:03.080 Cat five. Right, if it's a Cat one, Republicans probably 0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:05.320 can hold both the House and the Senate. If it's 0:05:05.320 --> 0:05:07.680 simply a Cat two or a Cat three type of storm, 0:05:07.720 --> 0:05:12.280 where it's a bigger Democratic turnout than Republican turnout, more 0:05:12.360 --> 0:05:14.920 enthusiasm on the left than the right, but the money's 0:05:15.000 --> 0:05:17.520 kind of equal, the candidate performance is kind of equal. 0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:21.760 You know, that's an environment that the Democrats probably wouldn't 0:05:21.760 --> 0:05:22.600 control the House. 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:24.120 But come up short in the Senate. 0:05:25.600 --> 0:05:28.560 This thing gets bigger than that and it becomes where 0:05:28.560 --> 0:05:31.040 they can win both the House and the Senate, where 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:34.520 you start to have more retirements, and you have lopsided 0:05:34.560 --> 0:05:38.160 candidate issues. And that's what we were watching for tonight, Right, 0:05:38.320 --> 0:05:40.719 was the bottom going to fall out for Republicans. It's 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:44.120 been a rough couple of months for Republicans in general, 0:05:44.480 --> 0:05:45.840 Donald Trump specifically. 0:05:46.320 --> 0:05:49.039 The narrative is not going well. The headlines aren't going well. 0:05:49.120 --> 0:05:51.080 Right, you look at the MAGA coalition and there's been 0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:53.840 a lot of cracks in that coalition. Marjorie Taylor Green. 0:05:53.960 --> 0:05:58.320 The Jeffrey Epstein files created cracks. What's happening in Venezuela, 0:05:58.560 --> 0:06:02.480 in Israel, in Ukraine has created some cracks. And it's 0:06:02.560 --> 0:06:05.040 you know, it's a reminder, you know, Trump Trump put 0:06:05.040 --> 0:06:09.800 together this coalition that doesn't really share any sort of 0:06:09.880 --> 0:06:13.320 ideological values other than they don't like the left right. 0:06:13.360 --> 0:06:17.640 There's a cultural bind that keeps this coalition together, but 0:06:17.720 --> 0:06:21.839 there's not really an issue bind that keeps this coalition together, 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:27.719 you know, And so if you start to see fracture, 0:06:27.760 --> 0:06:32.040 it's fracture that may be really hard to put back together. 0:06:32.720 --> 0:06:36.320 And I think the fear Republicans had about this special 0:06:36.360 --> 0:06:42.360 election in Tennessee that a loss would essentially lead to 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:44.359 the bottom falling out. And what does the bottom falling 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:48.000 out look like for Republicans, another ten to fifteen House 0:06:48.040 --> 0:06:52.280 members deciding to retire and not seek reelection, maybe a 0:06:52.320 --> 0:06:55.960 senator or two. That you don't that Republicans thought we're 0:06:55.960 --> 0:06:58.560 going to seek reelection. That says, you know what, I'm 0:06:58.600 --> 0:07:01.000 out of here. I'm not going to do this. I'm gonna. 0:07:02.200 --> 0:07:02.880 I don't want to. 0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:07.360 Either be in the minority or worse risk losing my seat. 0:07:07.400 --> 0:07:09.920 I don't want to go out that way. And a 0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:14.160 loss in this special election would have been that, but 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:16.480 that didn't happen, right, So I think what we have 0:07:16.680 --> 0:07:20.200 is you have Republicans feeling as if, Okay, there's a 0:07:20.240 --> 0:07:23.600 way to survive these midterms. They can survive the storm 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:26.480 that's coming. It's not going to be pretty. They may 0:07:26.520 --> 0:07:29.679 lose some windows, they may lose a piece of their roof. 0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:33.880 That's the equivalent of losing House seats and losing control 0:07:33.920 --> 0:07:38.320 of the House. Maybe the Senate goes from a three 0:07:38.360 --> 0:07:41.640 seat advantage down to a one seat advantage, but they 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:47.200 hang on to some power in Congress, and it's not 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:50.520 a total loss if you're Donald Trump, and if you 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:53.280 look at and I think that that's what each party's 0:07:53.280 --> 0:07:54.720 going to take away from this, right, I think the 0:07:54.760 --> 0:07:57.080 Democrats are going to look and say, look, we got 0:07:57.120 --> 0:08:01.559 an enthusiasm advantage. Voters are ready to walk on broken 0:08:01.560 --> 0:08:04.120 glass to show up. The turnout in this special election 0:08:04.240 --> 0:08:08.400 was was very high, but it also meant it engaged 0:08:08.440 --> 0:08:10.840 the other side too. I think a lot of Democrats 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:12.960 are going to whisper today that hey there, you know, 0:08:13.040 --> 0:08:16.800 imagine if they had a candidate that ideologically fit the 0:08:16.880 --> 0:08:20.520 district better. Right this If you remember the famous Connor 0:08:20.600 --> 0:08:24.120 Lamb special election of twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen, that 0:08:24.200 --> 0:08:26.920 was sort of the first big, you know, sort of 0:08:27.400 --> 0:08:29.800 tea leaf that when Connor Lamb won a district that 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:32.400 had been a double digit Republican district and he won 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:35.680 that special election, that was like whoa. And I remember 0:08:35.679 --> 0:08:38.800 at the time Republicans were going, well, Democrats won't find 0:08:38.800 --> 0:08:41.679 candidates like that in all these races. But it was 0:08:41.720 --> 0:08:44.320 an acknowledgment that the Democrats had found almost the perfect 0:08:44.400 --> 0:08:50.880 candidate to run in that district. That is not Aftenban, Right, 0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:53.840 she was definitely the progressive in the primary. She was 0:08:53.880 --> 0:08:58.800 outspent in the primary by more establishment candidates, and you know, 0:08:58.880 --> 0:09:03.839 she was the more democratic socialist leaning candidate, if you will, 0:09:03.880 --> 0:09:06.120 I think even you know had some kind things to 0:09:06.120 --> 0:09:08.080 say about it. Let's just say anything she had said 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:13.600 positively about democratic socialism or progressive politics. Republicans found and 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:17.000 used it in their at and she ended up being, 0:09:17.160 --> 0:09:19.320 in some ways the referendum in this race, right. It 0:09:19.360 --> 0:09:22.719 was Republicans wanted this to be a referendum on her 0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:26.640 and left wing politics. Democrats were hoping this would be 0:09:26.640 --> 0:09:30.440 a referendum on prices, the economy, and Donald Trump. And 0:09:30.480 --> 0:09:32.360 the fact of the matter is they both succeeded. 0:09:32.480 --> 0:09:32.680 Right. 0:09:33.160 --> 0:09:36.240 Democrats succeeded in getting a turnout that made this race 0:09:36.280 --> 0:09:41.520 incredibly competitive, fairly close, probably as close as they realistically 0:09:41.559 --> 0:09:44.040 could have gotten it given the makeup of this district. 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:47.880 But Republicans got the nominee they wanted, right, And I 0:09:47.880 --> 0:09:50.199 think that's what Democrats are going to ask themselves the 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:55.040 special had they had a Jim Cooper like Democrat. And 0:09:55.080 --> 0:09:57.200 for those of you who are familiar with old Tennessee politics, 0:09:57.280 --> 0:10:00.800 Jim Cooper was sort of an old school blue dog Democrat, 0:10:00.840 --> 0:10:04.120 which was code for more you know, he was closer 0:10:04.160 --> 0:10:08.040 to Joe Manchin on the ideological scale than even say 0:10:08.160 --> 0:10:10.600 Chuck Schumer. Okay, I'm not even saying, you know, going 0:10:10.600 --> 0:10:15.559 to AOC definitely was more center left than just mainstream liberal. 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:19.800 And I think that's going to be a fair, a 0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:21.760 fair piece of analysis that you know, would that have 0:10:22.120 --> 0:10:24.080 would that have been the difference? Right? A couple of 0:10:24.080 --> 0:10:26.679 points been harder to paint, you know, somebody like a 0:10:26.760 --> 0:10:31.360 Jim Cooper as a radical. But then you got to 0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:34.080 ask yourself, if you're Republicans, can you do this in 0:10:34.200 --> 0:10:37.600 forty races? Can you do this for thirty districts that 0:10:37.640 --> 0:10:41.040 you've got to defend? Because it's going to be somewhere. Now, 0:10:41.120 --> 0:10:44.520 you know, anything that is our anything that Donald Trump 0:10:44.559 --> 0:10:48.240 won by say twelve to fifteen points, I think now 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:50.840 is a house seat. Realistically, the Democrats, that they find 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:54.840 the right candidate can potentially put in play. So, you know, 0:10:54.920 --> 0:10:58.280 can they run the kind of camp essentially emergency triage 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:00.760 campaign that Republicans came in and ran. And by the way, 0:11:00.800 --> 0:11:04.160 they deserve credit for this because you know, failing to 0:11:04.200 --> 0:11:06.880 answer the bell on these warning signs and losing this 0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:10.360 would have led to a total catastrophe. So doing the 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:14.400 triage sort of bought them some time and probably saved 0:11:14.400 --> 0:11:19.240 a handful of retirements on this front, But can they 0:11:19.280 --> 0:11:21.720 scale this right? You know, you might be able to 0:11:21.760 --> 0:11:24.760 save a race here or a race there in this game, 0:11:25.160 --> 0:11:27.200 but you're not going to be able to hope that 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:31.200 you get Democratic nominees that don't fit the district across 0:11:31.240 --> 0:11:36.800 the country. Now, do I think Republicans are going to 0:11:36.120 --> 0:11:39.240 get into the habit now of trying to actually play 0:11:39.280 --> 0:11:42.160 in Democratic primaries, because that's been the biggest That's the 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:46.240 other difference between the twenty eighteen cycle and the twenty 0:11:46.280 --> 0:11:50.200 twenty six cycle. In twenty eighteen, the Democratic leadership and 0:11:50.280 --> 0:11:53.199 at that time, you know, and yes that included Schumer 0:11:53.280 --> 0:12:00.520 and Pelosi, But back then they had a little more juice. 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:03.360 The Democratic Party had a little more credibility with its 0:12:03.360 --> 0:12:06.679 own voters and donors that when they squeezed people out 0:12:06.679 --> 0:12:08.839 of a primary, they listened and they said, hey, this 0:12:08.880 --> 0:12:11.679 is who we were supporting, this is who the national 0:12:11.679 --> 0:12:14.800 party wants. They could clear a primary field and they 0:12:14.800 --> 0:12:20.319 could sort of minimize the number of nominees that we're 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:21.679 going to be too far to the left to win 0:12:21.720 --> 0:12:26.680 general elections. They don't have that credibility this cycle. While 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:30.600 I think a bit more enthusiasm for Democrats. You also 0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:33.640 have a national party that can't sit here and say 0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:36.240 we're going to squeeze out this candidate, and the Michigan 0:12:36.320 --> 0:12:40.520 Senate primary squeeze out and in some ways, an endorsement 0:12:40.559 --> 0:12:44.439 from the national party for in certain primaries maybe a 0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:47.959 kiss of death that it puts the scarlet e on 0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:52.160 your coat for establishment right and in these days, being 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:55.280 part being seen as part of the political establishment, whether 0:12:55.320 --> 0:12:58.240 you're on the left or the right, is not a 0:12:58.240 --> 0:12:59.439 good place to be politically. 0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:01.720 So, you know. 0:13:02.000 --> 0:13:04.439 I think that the challenge the Democrats have is they 0:13:04.480 --> 0:13:06.559 have a great environment building. In fact, if you look 0:13:06.559 --> 0:13:09.080 at my latest substack, I kind of think we're I 0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:11.599 think we're sort of underrating what is growing here. I 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:14.199 think this is when you look at it, Yes, things 0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:18.959 look very similar as twenty eighteen, but I sense that 0:13:19.320 --> 0:13:22.199 Trump's script on his own party is loosening a little bit. 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:27.320 And ask yourself over the next five months, what good 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:29.599 headlines are going to help a Republican that's going to 0:13:29.640 --> 0:13:31.400 be on the ballot in twenty six Right, they're having 0:13:31.400 --> 0:13:35.120 this argument over extending the Obamacare subsidies. In fact, I 0:13:37.240 --> 0:13:40.480 believe that had Ashton Bain won this special had the 0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:43.400 Democrat pulled the upset. I think you've seen those subsidy 0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:46.720 extensions like happen within forty eight hours. I still think 0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:48.520 they're going to happen because I think Trump is going 0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:52.520 to flip a switch in his polster who's been warning 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:56.360 a lot of Republicans that healthcare could be the issue 0:13:56.400 --> 0:13:59.400 that takes down the Republican majorities in both chambers. That 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:02.439 Trump will end up weighing in and doing a one 0:14:02.480 --> 0:14:05.400 year or two year extension because he just wants to 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:08.400 get that. They want to mitigate the damage. Not extending 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:14.280 these healthcare subsidies would do so. But the point is 0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:17.360 just that fight alone, there's not positive headlines being created. 0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:21.400 Those are negative. That's defensive headlines. Then you've got we've 0:14:21.400 --> 0:14:23.640 got a Terra ruling that's coming. Well, no matter what 0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:25.160 the ruling is, it's a bad I think. 0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:26.560 It's a bad headline for the Republicans. 0:14:26.640 --> 0:14:30.560 Right if if the Supreme Court upholds Trump's authority, well, 0:14:30.560 --> 0:14:33.920 the market's going to go haywire. It means these tariffs 0:14:33.960 --> 0:14:38.880 stay in place and the uneven economy continues, right, and 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:41.520 we have prices continue to rise, We continue to have 0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:45.520 inflationary pressures, and we've weakened the global economy. And when 0:14:45.520 --> 0:14:48.720 the global economy gets weaker, our economy can't get as strong. 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:51.920 You know, we might you know, I saw somebody cheering 0:14:51.960 --> 0:14:54.320 on that that we you know Japan, you know, the 0:14:54.400 --> 0:14:57.880 tariffs have really slowed down Japan's economy. That's not good 0:14:57.880 --> 0:15:02.400 for America. Of Japan's economy, it goes into recession. That's 0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:06.760 not anything to cheer. That's only going to hurt our economy. 0:15:06.840 --> 0:15:10.120 Economies are too interconnected. So this is the naivete of 0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:12.880 this whole teriff regime. But the more nationalistic we go 0:15:12.920 --> 0:15:15.760 with our economic policy, the more nationalistic everybody else is 0:15:15.800 --> 0:15:17.600 going to go with their economic policy. And that is 0:15:17.680 --> 0:15:21.680 bad for prices, and that is bad for GDP growth 0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:26.600 around the world, And it doesn't solve the income inequality problem, 0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:29.520 and it just puts a sort of a wet blanket 0:15:29.680 --> 0:15:33.280 over any economic growth. But you still have inflationary pressures, right, 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:36.960 Costs still go up because of these consumer taxes. We 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:40.720 call them tariffs, but they're nothing more than an additional tax, essentially, 0:15:40.800 --> 0:15:44.120 a form of almost like a vat tax that Trump 0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:47.120 has tried to institute here. But that's not going to 0:15:47.120 --> 0:15:50.239 be a great headline. You've got what's happening in Venezuela, 0:15:50.280 --> 0:15:55.360 where where you know, is this war even legal? Have 0:15:55.560 --> 0:15:59.800 any of the you know, it's possible. Nothing is legal here, right, 0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:05.320 There's been no congressional authority that you know is clear 0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:08.640 to me that has given the president the authority to 0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:12.480 do this. This definition of narco terrorism to me, is 0:16:12.520 --> 0:16:15.920 a It is not something that's been tested in the courts, 0:16:17.280 --> 0:16:21.200 whether you can truly I go to war and if 0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:25.320 this is you know, is this a regular crime or 0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:27.640 is it a homicide or a war crime. But either way, 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:32.640 the second strike attacking those that survived the first strike 0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:38.480 in that first attack on the alleged Venezuelan and cocaine traffickers, 0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:44.320 either one creates a congressional inquiry that again, this is 0:16:44.360 --> 0:16:46.920 not a positive headline for the Republican Party and anybody 0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:49.680 running for office. It is a headline that puts you 0:16:49.760 --> 0:16:52.960 on the defensive at best, and if anything, may put 0:16:53.000 --> 0:16:56.360 some Republicans in a place where they feel like they've 0:16:56.400 --> 0:17:02.480 got a distance themselves from Donald Trump. Do you hate hangovers? 0:17:02.520 --> 0:17:04.919 We'll say goodbye to hangovers. Out of office gives you 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:07.680 the social buzz without the next day regret. 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That's get sold dot 0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:19.639 Com promo code toodcast for thirty percent off. 0:18:23.560 --> 0:18:24.280 You know, the more. 0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:27.160 Unpopular Trump is growing and his approval rating, his disapproval 0:18:27.240 --> 0:18:31.320 rating continues to rise, and his his approval ratings floating downward. 0:18:31.320 --> 0:18:33.520 I wouldn't say it's diving downward, but it continues to 0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:39.280 float downward. You put all that together and you're going 0:18:39.320 --> 0:18:43.200 to have in comment Republicans looking for ways to subtly 0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:45.280 distance themselves from Trump. In fact, we saw it in 0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:49.360 the special election. The most remarkable thing about the Matt 0:18:49.440 --> 0:18:52.080 Van epsads is that they didn't use Donald Trump. Yes, 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:55.240 he phoned into a rally, right you know, and the 0:18:55.320 --> 0:18:59.639 national media covered that rally, but you know that was 0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:02.040 they did not want a picture of Donald Trump with 0:19:02.119 --> 0:19:06.239 this candidate. He never used Trump's name, you know. He 0:19:06.240 --> 0:19:09.040 certainly said I will fight for America first, and used radicals, 0:19:09.280 --> 0:19:13.520 used different buzzwords that are very familiar buzzwords in maga circles. 0:19:13.920 --> 0:19:16.040 But there was no use of Trump, and there are 0:19:16.040 --> 0:19:17.520 going to be other Republicans are going to be looking 0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:20.159 for specific places to start splitting from Trump. They may 0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:22.159 do it on tariffs, they may do it on Venezuela, 0:19:23.440 --> 0:19:25.960 they may do it on healthcare subsidies. But the point 0:19:26.040 --> 0:19:30.479 is all of the near term events that are going 0:19:30.520 --> 0:19:33.879 to impact this political environment, they all seem like negative 0:19:33.880 --> 0:19:36.919 headlines right now for the Republicans. What is going to 0:19:36.920 --> 0:19:40.040 be a positive headline that's coming up. Are we suddenly 0:19:40.080 --> 0:19:45.320 going to see prices fall and saving these accounts grow 0:19:45.680 --> 0:19:49.760 over the next six months. That doesn't seem likely. And 0:19:49.800 --> 0:19:54.120 then there's the intangible here of Donald Trump and Trump fatigue. 0:19:56.240 --> 0:19:59.679 Don't I think we underestimate the length of the you know, 0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:02.680 of the hold he's had on our politics. Right it's 0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:07.240 been now over ten years that he's essentially dominated politics. 0:20:07.240 --> 0:20:09.760 His movements about ten years old. And if you look 0:20:09.800 --> 0:20:13.560 at the history of modern political campaigns, at modern politics, 0:20:13.560 --> 0:20:17.920 which I defined modern politics as essentially the end of 0:20:17.960 --> 0:20:22.280 World War two to now, you know, these runs, these 0:20:22.320 --> 0:20:24.920 sort of cult We've basically had a series of cult 0:20:24.920 --> 0:20:27.520 to personalities. It's not that parties have have runs. It's 0:20:27.520 --> 0:20:31.640 almost like political personalities have run, right. You know, Eisenhower 0:20:31.680 --> 0:20:34.240 had himself of basically an eight to ten year run, 0:20:34.280 --> 0:20:38.800 and Kennedy Johnson had eight to ten years, and Nixon 0:20:38.840 --> 0:20:41.600 had his ten year period. You know, Carter was sort 0:20:41.640 --> 0:20:44.880 of a four year interlude, and Reagan Bush dominated about 0:20:44.880 --> 0:20:46.800 ten to twelve years, and Clinton had his eight to 0:20:46.880 --> 0:20:50.679 ten years, and George W. Bush and then Barack Obama 0:20:50.800 --> 0:20:52.520 and then we're in the air of Donald Trump. The 0:20:52.520 --> 0:20:55.880 point is is that it's really hard to extend this 0:20:56.040 --> 0:21:01.680 to eleven and twelve years successfully. Right by the ninety midterms, 0:21:01.880 --> 0:21:05.439 everything was petering out for the Reagan coalition. By the 0:21:05.440 --> 0:21:09.159 twenty oh two midterms, the Clinton or Clinton coalition was 0:21:09.200 --> 0:21:13.760 completely gone. By twenty sixteen, we saw the Obama coalition 0:21:13.800 --> 0:21:17.720 already fracturing. It kind of got put back together during 0:21:17.800 --> 0:21:20.520 COVID for Biden, but that might have been a bit 0:21:20.520 --> 0:21:25.160 of a COVID effect than anything else. So I don't 0:21:25.160 --> 0:21:27.400 think we fully appreciate that we're at the end. We're 0:21:27.400 --> 0:21:30.679 at the end stages here of the Trump era. Is 0:21:30.720 --> 0:21:32.240 it going to go out with a whimper? Is it 0:21:32.240 --> 0:21:34.320 going to go out with a bang? Is it going 0:21:34.400 --> 0:21:37.639 to be escorted out by the voters or sort of 0:21:37.640 --> 0:21:42.720 fade away. I think that's the only unknown here, right, 0:21:43.000 --> 0:21:46.560 and it being escorted out by the voters is a 0:21:46.640 --> 0:21:47.240 wipeout in. 0:21:47.240 --> 0:21:48.760 The twenty twenty six midterms. 0:21:49.000 --> 0:21:52.480 Fading away is you know, losing the House, holding the 0:21:52.520 --> 0:21:58.280 Senate and staying competitive in twenty in twenty twenty eight 0:21:58.359 --> 0:22:03.120 and so you know, I think that I am sort 0:22:03.160 --> 0:22:06.280 of think I believe we're underestimating the sort of the 0:22:06.320 --> 0:22:08.959 intangible Trump fatigue here. And the fact is, when this 0:22:09.080 --> 0:22:12.000 economy sucks and the economy member did not suck in 0:22:12.040 --> 0:22:15.639 twenty eighteen, that's a big difference between twenty eighteen and now. 0:22:16.000 --> 0:22:18.760 You had a people felt pretty good about that economy 0:22:18.760 --> 0:22:21.320 in twenty eighteen, and Democrats still won the House though 0:22:21.320 --> 0:22:24.840 they lost two sentences. You're now going to have a 0:22:24.880 --> 0:22:29.240 similar enthusiastic democratic environment, but with an economy that a 0:22:29.240 --> 0:22:32.120 lot of people don't like. And I always say that 0:22:32.200 --> 0:22:35.919