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Speaker 1: Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from

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Speaker 1: if you've got a growing family. Hello, they're happy Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: and welcome to another episode of the Chuck Podcast. Well,

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Speaker 1: one of my favorite sayings used to be, if it

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Speaker 1: was Tuesday, somebody's voting somewhere, which means, if it's Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: we have some election results. And this happens to be

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Speaker 1: no ordinary Wednesday. It's a day after a special election.

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Speaker 1: I know the most devoted of your time podcast subscribers

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Speaker 1: and listeners caught our live stream or I hope caught

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Speaker 1: our live stream election show and partnership with Decision Desk

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Speaker 1: HQ and Chris Solisa. We were essentially watching the returns

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Speaker 1: with those that chose to watch with us, and we

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Speaker 1: had another huge turnout. We are overwhelmed by the response

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Speaker 1: we've been getting for these election night specials. Let's just say,

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Speaker 1: you're you're only encouraging us to do this more and more.

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Speaker 1: But in some ways, this is one of those special

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Speaker 1: elections where both parties are going to take something away

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Speaker 1: that they feel better about. Both parties are going to

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Speaker 1: look at this and say what could have been for

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Speaker 1: different rays, And in another way you look at it

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Speaker 1: is in some ways it changes nothing. It taught us

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Speaker 1: nothing we didn't already know. So I'm gonna start with

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Speaker 1: that part right. In some ways, this special election went

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Speaker 1: as expected.

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Speaker 2: What do I mean by that?

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Speaker 1: Well, as Jeffrey Scaling said there at the end, it's

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Speaker 1: like the final margin of victory looks like to be

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Speaker 1: somewhere around, you know, somewhere between four and six percentage points,

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Speaker 1: which means you're looking at it at approximately a sixteen

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Speaker 1: to eighteen point Democratic over performance based on the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four results, which is exactly pretty much in line

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Speaker 1: with what we've seen with various special elections. We've had

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Speaker 1: some special congressional elections. Two that happened in Florida one

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Speaker 1: had a sixteen point over performance, another one actually had

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Speaker 1: a twenty three point over performance for Democrats. Both were

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Speaker 1: still Republican victories like this one, but there was this

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Speaker 1: over performance right super red districts that suddenly got much

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Speaker 1: closer in a special election. In some Democratic victories, their

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Speaker 1: over performance has been in the sixteen to eighteen point range.

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Speaker 1: Why do I keep using this number sixteen to eighteen

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Speaker 1: And no, I'm not saying six seven. I'm not participating

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Speaker 1: in that nonsense. But the importance of that sixteen to

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Speaker 1: eighteen point range is that it's about the same number

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Speaker 1: that we saw in twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen special

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Speaker 1: elections going into that mid cycle, where that over performance

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Speaker 1: did end up translating to a good Democratic Knight. But

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Speaker 1: of course the question is is twenty twenty six going

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Speaker 1: to be another twenty eighteen or it's twenty twenty six

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Speaker 1: going to be something bigger, something akin to what Republican

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Speaker 1: You know, Republicans nineteen ninety four they swept both the

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Speaker 1: House and the Senate, or Democrats two thousand and six,

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Speaker 1: where they swept both the House and the Senate. When

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Speaker 1: you have a to me at this point, a wave

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Speaker 1: is when you're the party out of power, you're not

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Speaker 1: holding either of the House and Senate, and after the

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Speaker 1: wave hits, you end up controlling both the House and

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Speaker 1: the Senate. And I think the question we're all looking

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Speaker 1: for is, is this in a political environment that is

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Speaker 1: developing into a wave for the Democrats right to You know,

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Speaker 1: we love our weather metaphors as political prognosticator types, and

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Speaker 1: there's clearly a storm brewing, and the question is is

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Speaker 1: this going to be you know, to use hurricane terms,

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Speaker 1: a Cat two, a Cat three, a Cat four, a

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Speaker 1: Cat five. Right, if it's a Cat one, Republicans probably

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Speaker 1: can hold both the House and the Senate. If it's

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Speaker 1: simply a Cat two or a Cat three type of storm,

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Speaker 1: where it's a bigger Democratic turnout than Republican turnout, more

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Speaker 1: enthusiasm on the left than the right, but the money's

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Speaker 1: kind of equal, the candidate performance is kind of equal.

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Speaker 1: You know, that's an environment that the Democrats probably wouldn't

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Speaker 1: control the House.

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Speaker 2: But come up short in the Senate.

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Speaker 1: This thing gets bigger than that and it becomes where

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Speaker 1: they can win both the House and the Senate, where

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Speaker 1: you start to have more retirements, and you have lopsided

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Speaker 1: candidate issues. And that's what we were watching for tonight, Right,

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Speaker 1: was the bottom going to fall out for Republicans. It's

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Speaker 1: been a rough couple of months for Republicans in general,

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump specifically.

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Speaker 2: The narrative is not going well. The headlines aren't going well.

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Speaker 1: Right, you look at the MAGA coalition and there's been

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Speaker 1: a lot of cracks in that coalition. Marjorie Taylor Green.

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Speaker 1: The Jeffrey Epstein files created cracks. What's happening in Venezuela,

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Speaker 1: in Israel, in Ukraine has created some cracks. And it's

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Speaker 1: you know, it's a reminder, you know, Trump Trump put

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Speaker 1: together this coalition that doesn't really share any sort of

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Speaker 1: ideological values other than they don't like the left right.

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Speaker 1: There's a cultural bind that keeps this coalition together, but

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Speaker 1: there's not really an issue bind that keeps this coalition together,

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Speaker 1: you know, And so if you start to see fracture,

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Speaker 1: it's fracture that may be really hard to put back together.

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Speaker 1: And I think the fear Republicans had about this special

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Speaker 1: election in Tennessee that a loss would essentially lead to

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Speaker 1: the bottom falling out. And what does the bottom falling

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Speaker 1: out look like for Republicans, another ten to fifteen House

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Speaker 1: members deciding to retire and not seek reelection, maybe a

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Speaker 1: senator or two. That you don't that Republicans thought we're

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Speaker 1: going to seek reelection. That says, you know what, I'm

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Speaker 1: out of here. I'm not going to do this. I'm gonna.

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Speaker 2: I don't want to.

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Speaker 1: Either be in the minority or worse risk losing my seat.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to go out that way. And a

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Speaker 1: loss in this special election would have been that, but

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Speaker 1: that didn't happen, right, So I think what we have

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Speaker 1: is you have Republicans feeling as if, Okay, there's a

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Speaker 1: way to survive these midterms. They can survive the storm

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Speaker 1: that's coming. It's not going to be pretty. They may

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Speaker 1: lose some windows, they may lose a piece of their roof.

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Speaker 1: That's the equivalent of losing House seats and losing control

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Speaker 1: of the House. Maybe the Senate goes from a three

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Speaker 1: seat advantage down to a one seat advantage, but they

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Speaker 1: hang on to some power in Congress, and it's not

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Speaker 1: a total loss if you're Donald Trump, and if you

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Speaker 1: look at and I think that that's what each party's

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Speaker 1: going to take away from this, right, I think the

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Speaker 1: Democrats are going to look and say, look, we got

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Speaker 1: an enthusiasm advantage. Voters are ready to walk on broken

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Speaker 1: glass to show up. The turnout in this special election

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Speaker 1: was was very high, but it also meant it engaged

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Speaker 1: the other side too. I think a lot of Democrats

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Speaker 1: are going to whisper today that hey there, you know,

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Speaker 1: imagine if they had a candidate that ideologically fit the

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Speaker 1: district better. Right this If you remember the famous Connor

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Speaker 1: Lamb special election of twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen, that

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Speaker 1: was sort of the first big, you know, sort of

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Speaker 1: tea leaf that when Connor Lamb won a district that

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Speaker 1: had been a double digit Republican district and he won

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Speaker 1: that special election, that was like whoa. And I remember

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Speaker 1: at the time Republicans were going, well, Democrats won't find

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Speaker 1: candidates like that in all these races. But it was

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Speaker 1: an acknowledgment that the Democrats had found almost the perfect

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Speaker 1: candidate to run in that district. That is not Aftenban, Right,

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Speaker 1: she was definitely the progressive in the primary. She was

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Speaker 1: outspent in the primary by more establishment candidates, and you know,

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Speaker 1: she was the more democratic socialist leaning candidate, if you will,

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Speaker 1: I think even you know had some kind things to

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Speaker 1: say about it. Let's just say anything she had said

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Speaker 1: positively about democratic socialism or progressive politics. Republicans found and

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Speaker 1: used it in their at and she ended up being,

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Speaker 1: in some ways the referendum in this race, right. It

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Speaker 1: was Republicans wanted this to be a referendum on her

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Speaker 1: and left wing politics. Democrats were hoping this would be

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Speaker 1: a referendum on prices, the economy, and Donald Trump. And

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Speaker 1: the fact of the matter is they both succeeded.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: Democrats succeeded in getting a turnout that made this race

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Speaker 1: incredibly competitive, fairly close, probably as close as they realistically

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Speaker 1: could have gotten it given the makeup of this district.

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Speaker 1: But Republicans got the nominee they wanted, right, And I

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Speaker 1: think that's what Democrats are going to ask themselves the

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Speaker 1: special had they had a Jim Cooper like Democrat. And

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Speaker 1: for those of you who are familiar with old Tennessee politics,

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Speaker 1: Jim Cooper was sort of an old school blue dog Democrat,

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Speaker 1: which was code for more you know, he was closer

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Speaker 1: to Joe Manchin on the ideological scale than even say

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Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer. Okay, I'm not even saying, you know, going

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Speaker 1: to AOC definitely was more center left than just mainstream liberal.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's going to be a fair, a

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Speaker 1: fair piece of analysis that you know, would that have

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Speaker 1: would that have been the difference? Right? A couple of

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Speaker 1: points been harder to paint, you know, somebody like a

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Speaker 1: Jim Cooper as a radical. But then you got to

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Speaker 1: ask yourself, if you're Republicans, can you do this in

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Speaker 1: forty races? Can you do this for thirty districts that

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Speaker 1: you've got to defend? Because it's going to be somewhere. Now,

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Speaker 1: you know, anything that is our anything that Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: won by say twelve to fifteen points, I think now

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Speaker 1: is a house seat. Realistically, the Democrats, that they find

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Speaker 1: the right candidate can potentially put in play. So, you know,

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Speaker 1: can they run the kind of camp essentially emergency triage

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Speaker 1: campaign that Republicans came in and ran. And by the way,

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Speaker 1: they deserve credit for this because you know, failing to

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Speaker 1: answer the bell on these warning signs and losing this

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Speaker 1: would have led to a total catastrophe. So doing the

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Speaker 1: triage sort of bought them some time and probably saved

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Speaker 1: a handful of retirements on this front, But can they

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Speaker 1: scale this right? You know, you might be able to

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Speaker 1: save a race here or a race there in this game,

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Speaker 1: but you're not going to be able to hope that

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Speaker 1: you get Democratic nominees that don't fit the district across

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Speaker 1: the country. Now, do I think Republicans are going to

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Speaker 1: get into the habit now of trying to actually play

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Speaker 1: in Democratic primaries, because that's been the biggest That's the

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Speaker 1: other difference between the twenty eighteen cycle and the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six cycle. In twenty eighteen, the Democratic leadership and

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Speaker 1: at that time, you know, and yes that included Schumer

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Speaker 1: and Pelosi, But back then they had a little more juice.

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Speaker 1: The Democratic Party had a little more credibility with its

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Speaker 1: own voters and donors that when they squeezed people out

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Speaker 1: of a primary, they listened and they said, hey, this

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Speaker 1: is who we were supporting, this is who the national

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Speaker 1: party wants. They could clear a primary field and they

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Speaker 1: could sort of minimize the number of nominees that we're

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Speaker 1: going to be too far to the left to win

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Speaker 1: general elections. They don't have that credibility this cycle. While

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Speaker 1: I think a bit more enthusiasm for Democrats. You also

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Speaker 1: have a national party that can't sit here and say

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Speaker 1: we're going to squeeze out this candidate, and the Michigan

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Speaker 1: Senate primary squeeze out and in some ways, an endorsement

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Speaker 1: from the national party for in certain primaries maybe a

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Speaker 1: kiss of death that it puts the scarlet e on

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Speaker 1: your coat for establishment right and in these days, being

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Speaker 1: part being seen as part of the political establishment, whether

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Speaker 1: you're on the left or the right, is not a

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Speaker 1: good place to be politically.

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Speaker 2: So, you know.

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Speaker 1: I think that the challenge the Democrats have is they

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Speaker 1: have a great environment building. In fact, if you look

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Speaker 1: at my latest substack, I kind of think we're I

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Speaker 1: think we're sort of underrating what is growing here. I

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Speaker 1: think this is when you look at it, Yes, things

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Speaker 1: look very similar as twenty eighteen, but I sense that

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Speaker 1: Trump's script on his own party is loosening a little bit.

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Speaker 1: And ask yourself over the next five months, what good

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Speaker 1: headlines are going to help a Republican that's going to

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Speaker 1: be on the ballot in twenty six Right, they're having

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Speaker 1: this argument over extending the Obamacare subsidies. In fact, I

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Speaker 1: believe that had Ashton Bain won this special had the

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Speaker 1: Democrat pulled the upset. I think you've seen those subsidy

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Speaker 1: extensions like happen within forty eight hours. I still think

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Speaker 1: they're going to happen because I think Trump is going

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Speaker 1: to flip a switch in his polster who's been warning

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Speaker 1: a lot of Republicans that healthcare could be the issue

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Speaker 1: that takes down the Republican majorities in both chambers. That

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Speaker 1: Trump will end up weighing in and doing a one

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Speaker 1: year or two year extension because he just wants to

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Speaker 1: get that. They want to mitigate the damage. Not extending

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Speaker 1: these healthcare subsidies would do so. But the point is

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Speaker 1: just that fight alone, there's not positive headlines being created.

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Speaker 1: Those are negative. That's defensive headlines. Then you've got we've

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Speaker 1: got a Terra ruling that's coming. Well, no matter what

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Speaker 1: the ruling is, it's a bad I think.

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Speaker 2: It's a bad headline for the Republicans.

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Speaker 1: Right if if the Supreme Court upholds Trump's authority, well,

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Speaker 1: the market's going to go haywire. It means these tariffs

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Speaker 1: stay in place and the uneven economy continues, right, and

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Speaker 1: we have prices continue to rise, We continue to have

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Speaker 1: inflationary pressures, and we've weakened the global economy. And when

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Speaker 1: the global economy gets weaker, our economy can't get as strong.

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Speaker 1: You know, we might you know, I saw somebody cheering

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Speaker 1: on that that we you know Japan, you know, the

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Speaker 1: tariffs have really slowed down Japan's economy. That's not good

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Speaker 1: for America. Of Japan's economy, it goes into recession. That's

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Speaker 1: not anything to cheer. That's only going to hurt our economy.

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Speaker 1: Economies are too interconnected. So this is the naivete of

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Speaker 1: this whole teriff regime. But the more nationalistic we go

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Speaker 1: with our economic policy, the more nationalistic everybody else is

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Speaker 1: going to go with their economic policy. And that is

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Speaker 1: bad for prices, and that is bad for GDP growth

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Speaker 1: around the world, And it doesn't solve the income inequality problem,

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Speaker 1: and it just puts a sort of a wet blanket

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Speaker 1: over any economic growth. But you still have inflationary pressures, right,

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Speaker 1: Costs still go up because of these consumer taxes. We

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Speaker 1: call them tariffs, but they're nothing more than an additional tax, essentially,

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Speaker 1: a form of almost like a vat tax that Trump

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Speaker 1: has tried to institute here. But that's not going to

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Speaker 1: be a great headline. You've got what's happening in Venezuela,

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Speaker 1: where where you know, is this war even legal? Have

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Speaker 1: any of the you know, it's possible. Nothing is legal here, right,

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Speaker 1: There's been no congressional authority that you know is clear

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Speaker 1: to me that has given the president the authority to

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Speaker 1: do this. This definition of narco terrorism to me, is

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Speaker 1: a It is not something that's been tested in the courts,

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Speaker 1: whether you can truly I go to war and if

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Speaker 1: this is you know, is this a regular crime or

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Speaker 1: is it a homicide or a war crime. But either way,

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Speaker 1: the second strike attacking those that survived the first strike

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Speaker 1: in that first attack on the alleged Venezuelan and cocaine traffickers,

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Speaker 1: either one creates a congressional inquiry that again, this is

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Speaker 1: not a positive headline for the Republican Party and anybody

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Speaker 1: running for office. It is a headline that puts you

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Speaker 1: on the defensive at best, and if anything, may put

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Speaker 1: some Republicans in a place where they feel like they've

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Speaker 2: You know, the more.

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Speaker 1: Unpopular Trump is growing and his approval rating, his disapproval

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Speaker 1: rating continues to rise, and his his approval ratings floating downward.

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't say it's diving downward, but it continues to

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Speaker 1: float downward. You put all that together and you're going

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Speaker 1: to have in comment Republicans looking for ways to subtly

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Speaker 1: distance themselves from Trump. In fact, we saw it in

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Speaker 1: the special election. The most remarkable thing about the Matt

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Speaker 1: Van epsads is that they didn't use Donald Trump. Yes,

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Speaker 1: he phoned into a rally, right you know, and the

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Speaker 1: national media covered that rally, but you know that was

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Speaker 1: they did not want a picture of Donald Trump with

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Speaker 1: this candidate. He never used Trump's name, you know. He

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Speaker 1: certainly said I will fight for America first, and used radicals,

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Speaker 1: used different buzzwords that are very familiar buzzwords in maga circles.

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Speaker 1: But there was no use of Trump, and there are

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Speaker 1: going to be other Republicans are going to be looking

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Speaker 1: for specific places to start splitting from Trump. They may

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Speaker 1: do it on tariffs, they may do it on Venezuela,

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Speaker 1: they may do it on healthcare subsidies. But the point

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Speaker 1: is all of the near term events that are going

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Speaker 1: to impact this political environment, they all seem like negative

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Speaker 1: headlines right now for the Republicans. What is going to

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Speaker 1: be a positive headline that's coming up. Are we suddenly

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Speaker 1: going to see prices fall and saving these accounts grow

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Speaker 1: over the next six months. That doesn't seem likely. And

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Speaker 1: then there's the intangible here of Donald Trump and Trump fatigue.

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Speaker 1: Don't I think we underestimate the length of the you know,

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Speaker 1: of the hold he's had on our politics. Right it's

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Speaker 1: been now over ten years that he's essentially dominated politics.

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Speaker 1: His movements about ten years old. And if you look

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Speaker 1: at the history of modern political campaigns, at modern politics,

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Speaker 1: which I defined modern politics as essentially the end of

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Speaker 1: World War two to now, you know, these runs, these

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Speaker 1: sort of cult We've basically had a series of cult

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Speaker 1: to personalities. It's not that parties have have runs. It's

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Speaker 1: almost like political personalities have run, right. You know, Eisenhower

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Speaker 1: had himself of basically an eight to ten year run,

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Speaker 1: and Kennedy Johnson had eight to ten years, and Nixon

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Speaker 1: had his ten year period. You know, Carter was sort

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Speaker 1: of a four year interlude, and Reagan Bush dominated about

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Speaker 1: ten to twelve years, and Clinton had his eight to

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Speaker 1: ten years, and George W. Bush and then Barack Obama

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Speaker 1: and then we're in the air of Donald Trump. The

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Speaker 1: point is is that it's really hard to extend this

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Speaker 1: to eleven and twelve years successfully. Right by the ninety midterms,

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Speaker 1: everything was petering out for the Reagan coalition. By the

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Speaker 1: twenty oh two midterms, the Clinton or Clinton coalition was

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Speaker 1: completely gone. By twenty sixteen, we saw the Obama coalition

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Speaker 1: already fracturing. It kind of got put back together during

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Speaker 1: COVID for Biden, but that might have been a bit

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Speaker 1: of a COVID effect than anything else. So I don't

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Speaker 1: think we fully appreciate that we're at the end. We're

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Speaker 1: at the end stages here of the Trump era. Is

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Speaker 1: it going to go out with a whimper? Is it

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Speaker 1: going to go out with a bang? Is it going

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Speaker 1: to be escorted out by the voters or sort of

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Speaker 1: fade away. I think that's the only unknown here, right,

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Speaker 1: and it being escorted out by the voters is a

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Speaker 1: wipeout in.

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Speaker 2: The twenty twenty six midterms.

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Speaker 1: Fading away is you know, losing the House, holding the

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Speaker 1: Senate and staying competitive in twenty in twenty twenty eight

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Speaker 1: and so you know, I think that I am sort

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Speaker 1: of think I believe we're underestimating the sort of the

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Speaker 1: intangible Trump fatigue here. And the fact is, when this

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Speaker 1: economy sucks and the economy member did not suck in

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, that's a big difference between twenty eighteen and now.

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Speaker 1: You had a people felt pretty good about that economy

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Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen, and Democrats still won the House though

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Speaker 1: they lost two sentences. You're now going to have a

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Speaker 1: similar enthusiastic democratic environment, but with an economy that a

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Speaker 1: lot of people don't like. And I always say that

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Speaker 1: because you know, the stock market looks good, but the

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Speaker 1: real world looks uncomfortable and bad, right, And I think

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Speaker 1: it's because the issue of costs is really starting to pinch.

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Speaker 2: And you know, now you've.

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Speaker 1: Got the high cost of electric bills and that's starting

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Speaker 1: to hit and that's being connected to these a ideals.

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Speaker 1: And I just think that Trump Trump now instead of

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Speaker 1: being teflon don, he's now wearing some beltcrow and whether

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Speaker 1: it's his weekly pardons that become less and less defensible,

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Speaker 1: particularly this one of the former Honduran presidential cocaine trafficker.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you know, on.

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Speaker 1: One breath, Donald Trump is going after Venezuela because of

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Speaker 1: cocaine distribution, and in the next breath he's pardoning somebody

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Speaker 1: who's responsible for my massive cocaine distribution into this country.

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Speaker 1: Is the only difference that Roger Stone got paid for

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Speaker 1: one and didn't get paid for the other. I mean

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Speaker 1: that that is an uncomfortable thing. And there's not many

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Speaker 1: elected Republicans that want to have to defend that pardon.

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Speaker 1: And Trump's doing this almost on a weekly basis. Where

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Speaker 1: there's some pardon that you're like, oh, BOYD, does that stink?

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Speaker 1: That's impossible to defend. In a normal political environment, there

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Speaker 1: might be borderline impeachable offense. We're obviously not going to

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Speaker 1: head in that territory. But the point is is that

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Speaker 1: not only are the macro is the macro environment pretty

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Speaker 1: bleak right now? If you're an elected Republican and the

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Speaker 1: headlines that you know are coming, there's sort of the

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Speaker 1: what Trump is doing to you? And you know Trump

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Speaker 1: is not thinking about the Republican Party at all. Trump

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Speaker 1: never has right. It is about himself and whether it's

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Speaker 1: these pardons, whether it's these personal business deals that he

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Speaker 1: cuts on behalf of his son, the weird business relationships

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Speaker 1: that is chief envoy in these negotiations Steve Woodcoff is

433
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,359
Speaker 1: involved with, and the mixing of all this, none of

434
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 1: that's defensible. And when people don't, if people are unhappy

435
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 1: about the economy, that stuff will then really irritate them.

436
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,199
Speaker 1: They overlooked it the first four years. They overlooked it

437
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 1: maybe during the Biden presidency, but if they don't like

438
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 1: their current situation, they're really not going to like you

439
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 1: benefiting Donald Trump while they're in this tough situation. So

440
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 1: that's why I'm a bit more bearish on Republican chances

441
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 1: of holding each chamber. And I think that the for

442
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 1: those that follow these political prediction markets, I think everybody

443
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:04,679
Speaker 1: is under under rating Democratic chances of winning the Senate.

444
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 1: There have been you know, since there have only been

445
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 1: six times six midterm elections, the first was eighteen ninety four,

446
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 1: but six midterm elections where the party not in power

447
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 1: in the White House won both the House and the

448
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:21,479
Speaker 1: Senate in a midterm, It's only actually happened six times.

449
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,400
Speaker 1: The last time was two thousand and six. On election day,

450
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 1: Republicans held both the House and Senate. By the time

451
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 1: all the votes are counted, Democrats had flipped both the

452
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,880
Speaker 1: House and the Senate. The Republicans did flip them both

453
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 1: in ninety four. Then it happened again in the fifties,

454
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 1: and it happened again in the forties. The first time

455
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:46,880
Speaker 1: it happened was eighteen ninety four, and it was Grover

456
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 1: Cleveland's second presidential term. In the midterm of that election,

457
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 1: and he was dealing with the depression of eighteen ninety three.

458
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 1: Republicans sweep the midterms in eighteen ninety four, and that

459
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:03,919
Speaker 1: second non consecutive term. Is that familiar to anybody? Are

460
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 1: we dealing with a president in his second non consecutive term.

461
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,680
Speaker 1: The out party sweeps in eighteen ninety four, and it

462
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 1: foreshadows a big Republican sweep in eighteen ninety six, which

463
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 1: leads to sixteen straight years of Republicans holding the presidency

464
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 1: until Woodrow Wilson's victory in nineteen twelve, so that's the

465
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,400
Speaker 1: first time it happened. Here's what was interesting that we've

466
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:31,119
Speaker 1: had thirty three midterm elections since eighteen ninety four, and

467
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 1: in twenty one of the thirty three the out party

468
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,159
Speaker 1: picked up Senate seats, and in eighteen of those twenty

469
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 1: one instances the pickup was four or more Senate seats. Well,

470
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 1: Democrats only need four Senate seats to win control of

471
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 1: the Senate. I know the map's not great for them

472
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 1: when you're you know, and this is sometimes I question

473
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 1: whether Democrats are truly a national party because they don't.

474
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 1: They barely contest elections in a third of the states,

475
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,160
Speaker 1: and I think that's why they may have a hard

476
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,359
Speaker 1: time putting enough Senate seats in play with this particular

477
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 1: map that they have to run on. But if history

478
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,360
Speaker 1: is any guide, the likelihood of them winning at least

479
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:11,680
Speaker 1: four Senate seats is actually quite high. And so that's

480
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 1: why I think the bar I think people are underestimating

481
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 1: democratic chances here. Look, they still have a lot of

482
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 1: recruiting to do and finding a cannon in Kansas, finding

483
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 1: a ralling around a canad in Mississippi seeing if they

484
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 1: can target places like Kentucky or Alaska or Iowa. But

485
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 1: they've got to put a lot more races in play.

486
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,120
Speaker 1: But history says they actually have a pretty good shot

487
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 1: at doing it, which leads me to the rest of

488
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:38,400
Speaker 1: the rundown of this episode. I'm going to wrap things

489
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:40,880
Speaker 1: up here in a second. Got a top five list

490
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 1: that actually goes well with what we're talking about tonight,

491
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 1: which is top five center races that Democrats if they

492
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:51,120
Speaker 1: actually can put the Senate in play in twenty twenty six,

493
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:55,399
Speaker 1: then of my top five list, one of them, at

494
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 1: least one of them has to be a single digit

495
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 1: race and very competitive by October if that's going to

496
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 1: become realistic.

497
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 2: I'll let you.

498
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:06,880
Speaker 1: Get to the list before I tease which states are

499
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 1: in that. Of course, I have some Q and A,

500
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 1: so with that, Yes, I have a lot to say

501
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 1: about the College Football ESPN Invitational and all that nonsense,

502
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 1: but I'm going to save that for twenty four hours.

503
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 1: Get my thoughts together. I've poured my heart out about

504
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:26,680
Speaker 1: all things Tennessee seven. I'd rather let that settle, let

505
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 1: that simmer, and I'll see in twenty four hours with

506
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 1: the hottest of hot takes, not just on the world

507
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:37,679
Speaker 1: of politics, but on the ESPN Invitational and the.

508
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 2: Leadership or lack thereof, inside the ACC So go Caines.

509
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. Let's sneak in a break.

510
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you

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Speaker 1: So with that, I want to transition a bit. Look,

544
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 1: given what happened in Tennessee, I thought it would be

545
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 1: worth focusing my top five list before I get to

546
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: the ass check segment. I thought it would be worth

547
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 1: focusing the top five list this week on five Senate

548
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 1: races that are not competitive at the moment. They're Republican

549
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 1: health seats. But what I would call is blue WaveWatch

550
00:30:51,600 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 1: Senate seats top five, top top The five I'm going

551
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 1: to give you are or my five nominees for what

552
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 1: happens in an actual wave, is that a Senate race

553
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 1: that was not on the map a year out ends

554
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 1: up flipping. In two thousand and six, there were sort

555
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 1: of three candidates. There were arguably four candidates for that.

556
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 1: Three candidates really for that, For that idea, you had

557
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 1: Virginia Senate at the time, a Democrat had n't want to,

558
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 1: you know, had Chuck rob But it was the sense

559
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 1: that Virginia was still a Republican state. George Bush carried

560
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 1: Virginia in two thousand and four. Democrat had and carried

561
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 1: carried in a presidential race since Carter in seventy six.

562
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 1: So the perception of Virginia was that it was a

563
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:48,160
Speaker 1: tough place. So and Jim Webb was an unusual candidate.

564
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 1: George Allen was a prospective presidential candidate. It was a

565
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 1: race that developed late and popped on the radar late,

566
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 1: and then it was a flip. And then it turned

567
00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 1: out to be a canary in the coal mine. It

568
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 1: turned out to foreshadow it was a growing shift of

569
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 1: Virginia from light red to now light blue. But each

570
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 1: one of those cycles, there's always a seat or two

571
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 1: that you're like, well, how did that happen? Sometimes it's

572
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 1: a special election win in the Senate side. Scott Brown's

573
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 1: victory in Massachusetts, it was it a seat that could

574
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 1: hold on his own in twenty twelve. Nope, that's what

575
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 1: gave us Elizabeth Warren. But in that unique environment, in

576
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 1: that moment in time, that's how much the ground had

577
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 1: shifted underneath Democrats when it came to the issue of

578
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 1: health care, and it certainly foreshadowed what was not a

579
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 1: very good mid term. So, with that caveats out of

580
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 1: the side, here are my nominees of the five you know,

581
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 1: and like I believe, I think all five of these

582
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 1: Senate seats have a chance to become shockingly competitive, and

583
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 1: I'll explain the unique circumstance for each of them, but

584
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 1: they are ones that have been written off right, And

585
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 1: I'm not even talking about Alaska. Texas don't make this

586
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 1: list because or or even Nebraska, because they're already seen

587
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 1: as quasi competitive at the moment. Right Alaska, especially if

588
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 1: Democrats get Mary Patello, Texas looks like it's going to

589
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 1: be competitive, no matter what part of it is demographics.

590
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 1: Part of it is Explain to me how John Corny

591
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 1: gets out of that gets fifty percent plus one after

592
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 1: a runoff. Really hard to see that, and without him

593
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 1: as the nominee, suddenly that becomes a winnable race. Although

594
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 1: the Democratic primary is a mess there. It's a topic

595
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 1: for another day. But these don't count those races to me.

596
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 1: You know, it's the job of the Democratic Party to

597
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 1: put those races in play because they're competitive enough sort

598
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 1: of on paper.

599
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 2: Then then it.

600
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 1: Becomes, hey, you should be able to find candidates, you

601
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 1: should be able to target those races. The five states

602
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 1: I'm going to be emphasizing here are not obvious. A

603
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 1: couple of them would have been ten years ago, but

604
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 1: they're not obvious at all. And what I would theorize

605
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 1: for you is that if Democrats, you know, if I

606
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 1: go into a coma and I wake up the day

607
00:33:57,680 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 1: after the mid terms and you tell me Democrats flip

608
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 1: the send, I'm going to guess one of these five

609
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:08,319
Speaker 1: races was either actually flipped or was one of the

610
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 1: final was one of the six or seven Senate races

611
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 1: in the country that was decided by five points or less.

612
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,839
Speaker 1: So here are my candidates for that, and I'll put

613
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 1: in an order of least likely to end up on

614
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 1: that last minute competitive slate to most likely. So I'm

615
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:28,239
Speaker 1: going to start with my home state of Florida. I

616
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 1: think there's still a competitive nature to the state of Florida.

617
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 1: I think there's definitely some sort of Republican fatigue in general.

618
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 2: I think the.

619
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,839
Speaker 1: Governor's race still has a shot at getting competitive. There's

620
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,839
Speaker 1: a couple of quality candidates on the Democratic side. We're

621
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 1: not seeing the same level of energy or interest on

622
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:48,960
Speaker 1: the Democratic side on the Senate race as much. Ashley Moody,

623
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 1: of course, is running to fill out the rest of

624
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 1: Marco Rubio's term after he left to become Secretary of State,

625
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 1: National Security Advisor, Head of the Archives, etc. All the

626
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 1: different jobs that he still holds. So he does hold

627
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 1: all three of those that I just mentioned. And you know,

628
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:08,240
Speaker 1: it just it's a very expensive state. So the work

629
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:11,879
Speaker 1: and the Democratic Party nationally has done a terrible job

630
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 1: at incubating the state of Florida. They don't help the

631
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 1: state party. The state party doesn't help itself very well.

632
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 1: You know, there's a variety of reasons why Florida sort

633
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 1: of under punches. It's voters, right, This is a state

634
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:25,439
Speaker 1: that you know is still probably a fifty three forty

635
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 1: seven state if both parties were equally funded. You know,

636
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 1: it's a leaner. I think I still think Florida's light red,

637
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 1: not dark red yet, but you know, the incompetence of

638
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 1: the state Democratic Party makes it seem like it's dark red.

639
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 1: So that's why I put it in the fifth slot here,

640
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:47,239
Speaker 1: because I do think the political environment could shift in

641
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:50,440
Speaker 1: such a way where we could see and Ashley Moody

642
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:53,840
Speaker 1: is not a household name and it is an appointed senator.

643
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 1: If you told me in October fifteenth, twenty twenty six,

644
00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 1: you had a poll showing that race forty five forty

645
00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 1: with the Democratic nominee in Moody in a political environment

646
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:08,360
Speaker 1: that looks like a growing blue wave, which at the

647
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 1: moment to me, it looks like that. That's what's happening.

648
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 1: Florida gets more competitive. It's just inevitable that you would

649
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 1: see that. So Florida's fifth on my list. But I'm

650
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 1: not yet impressed with the Canaid. I almost think it's

651
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 1: too expensive to put in this category. To actually take

652
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 1: it from from could we make it competitive to look,

653
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 1: it's kind of competitive to actually competitive. Fourth on the

654
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 1: list of Kentucky, it's an open seat. This is the

655
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:37,800
Speaker 1: Mitch mcconnal'syat. There's actually we've interviewed one of the Kentucky candidates,

656
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:40,440
Speaker 1: Amy McGrath is running again.

657
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 2: There is you know, the.

658
00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 1: Republican Party in Kentucky is pretty divided, right because it's

659
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 1: there's some pretty strong anti Trump Republicans in the state

660
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 1: of Kentucky. The retiring Senator Mitch McConnell ran Paul Thomas Massey.

661
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 1: The potential for the Republican primer to turn into a

662
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 1: bloody mess, it's already kind of that way, right. Look,

663
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 1: I think Andy Barr if he's the nominee, it's very

664
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:11,359
Speaker 1: difficult to be. But I also think Daniel Cameron would

665
00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 1: be a pretty you know, a strong potential Senate nominee

666
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 1: as well. But what if one of them aren't the

667
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 1: nominee and it is, like I said, it is nasty.

668
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 1: The primary campaign is heated up. There is a sense

669
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:29,800
Speaker 1: on the Republican side that it doesn't matter what happens,

670
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 1: it can be as bloody as you want. Sometimes that

671
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 1: mindset might leave a potential nominee weaker than they should be.

672
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 1: We saw that with Jade Vance out of his Ohio primary,

673
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 1: which was a bloody mess and ended up creating a

674
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 1: much more competitive general than was necessary. All the ingredients

675
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:57,319
Speaker 1: are there in Kentucky for that. So it's I tell you,

676
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 1: this is one of those things that if there were

677
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 1: a more if the Democratic Party had a slightly better

678
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:08,360
Speaker 1: brand and slightly better leadership, Andy Basheer would be the

679
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:11,359
Speaker 1: Senate nominee in that campaign and we'd be talking about

680
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:12,440
Speaker 1: Kentucky Senate.

681
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 2: A lot differently.

682
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,400
Speaker 1: But the fact that that's not even on the table,

683
00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:18,120
Speaker 1: and there wasn't and there wasn't anybody with the heft

684
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 1: to go to Andy Basheer and sort of beg him

685
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 1: and twist his arm in a way that could talk

686
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:25,400
Speaker 1: him into it. I think it just shows you how

687
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:27,320
Speaker 1: weak the party is. And I think Andy Basheer certainly

688
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 1: has his eye. I think he thinks his skills translate

689
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:34,400
Speaker 1: better to a potential presidential campaign. But again, all the

690
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:39,920
Speaker 1: ingredients of there in Kentucky for something late to surge.

691
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:44,000
Speaker 1: If the Republican primaries as messy it is, again, I'm

692
00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:47,880
Speaker 1: assuming only if this environment continues to be as poor

693
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 1: as it appears to be for the party that's currently

694
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 1: in power. Number three on this list for me is

695
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 1: Lindsay Graham in South Carolina. I know we've been here

696
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 1: before them with the with Jamie Harrison and all that

697
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 1: waste money, just like with Amy McGrath and that wasted money.

698
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 1: But I would argue that six years ago the political

699
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 1: environment wasn't as weak for Republicans. It was a very

700
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:12,239
Speaker 1: competitive environment. What does that Senate race look like in

701
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:16,800
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six without Trump on the ballot? Is Lindsay

702
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:19,880
Speaker 1: Graham wearing out as welcome? Does the mess that is

703
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:24,800
Speaker 1: the South Carolina Governor's race sort of put an entire

704
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 1: pall over the South Carolina Republican brand? Look, South Carolina

705
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,279
Speaker 1: Democratic Party is very similar to the Florida Democratic Party.

706
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 1: They really underperformed their potential. You know, there is a

707
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 1: stronger floor in South Carolina.

708
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:45,319
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, I'm sorry.

709
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:48,200
Speaker 1: South Carolina is surrounded by competitive states Georgia to the south,

710
00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 1: North Carolina to the north. They just had they've had

711
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 1: bad leadership in the state party week voter registration campaigns.

712
00:39:56,520 --> 00:39:58,920
Speaker 1: It is South Carolina and Mississippi are the two. And

713
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 1: I've just previewed the next Senate race on my list.

714
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 1: But these are two places where if the Democratic Party

715
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 1: invested serious resources and voter registration campaigns and sort of

716
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 1: had a better message for rural blacks in South Carolina

717
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 1: and Mississippi in general. But it's a problem they have

718
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 1: across the black belt in the South. Is Democrats underperform

719
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 1: among in all rural communities, not just rural white communities

720
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 1: and but a rural Latino communities and rural black communities.

721
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 1: It has been a it is it has been a

722
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 1: nagging problem for them, and they've done very little to

723
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:37,040
Speaker 1: fix it, very little investment. And this gets it to,

724
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 1: you know, is the you know, does the party see

725
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:42,799
Speaker 1: the opportunity that's staring them in the face or have

726
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 1: they Is it being run by a frankly, a bunch

727
00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 1: of people who live on the coasts and and just

728
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 1: have written off and assume all rural America is white

729
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,240
Speaker 1: when in the South, not all rural America is white.

730
00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:59,000
Speaker 1: And I think that's been a huge missed opportunity, uh

731
00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 1: in states like North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia

732
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:06,239
Speaker 1: in general, I mean, the only reason they throw money

733
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:08,360
Speaker 1: at Georgia is do the Atlanta growth of the Atlanta suburbs.

734
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 2: They're not.

735
00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:10,840
Speaker 1: They're not doing as good of a job in the

736
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 1: rural black communities as they could be. So anyway, I again,

737
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:18,799
Speaker 1: South Carolina's another one of those there's a mess. You know,

738
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:20,799
Speaker 1: yes it's in the governor's race, but that it's just

739
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 1: creating a bad juju if you will. And you know,

740
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 1: Lindsay's his own worst enemy at times, and his mouth

741
00:41:31,719 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 1: can certainly inspire donors to give money to candidates in

742
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:39,560
Speaker 1: ways that that that he may and he may have

743
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:42,359
Speaker 1: tied himself too much to Trump in ways that are

744
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:45,480
Speaker 1: not you know, you know, Lindsay's problem is is I

745
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 1: think that there are there is this center right voter

746
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:50,879
Speaker 1: in South Carolina that assume Lindsay was one of them.

747
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:53,399
Speaker 1: And I think they still think Lindsay is one of them.

748
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:57,920
Speaker 1: But he's so desperate to stay in Trump's good graces

749
00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 1: that he he sort of does some retort gymnastics that's

750
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:05,440
Speaker 1: embarrassing to some voters. They just have not had the

751
00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 1: right Democrat to to to sort of expose that side

752
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:11,920
Speaker 1: of Lindsay. But you look this is a guy Lindsay

753
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:15,440
Speaker 1: reminds me of Chuck Schumer in this respect. These are

754
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 1: two two politicians who've had a really impressive career who

755
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 1: are probably here a term too long. Had they left

756
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:30,400
Speaker 1: a term sooner they'd be they'd have they'd have been lying.

757
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,440
Speaker 1: They literally would have been treated as lions of the Senate,

758
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 1: you know, if they had left on their own terms.

759
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 1: And yes, you could say they're going to be leaving

760
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:39,880
Speaker 1: on their own terms. But in some ways, you know,

761
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 1: it's it's they're they're they they're kind of here past

762
00:42:43,160 --> 00:42:45,880
Speaker 1: their cell by date, and the longer they're here, I

763
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:49,440
Speaker 1: think the smaller they've become in some ways, And and

764
00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:53,799
Speaker 1: I think that's the danger here for Lindsay. Uh, on

765
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 1: this one. And that's why again I put it in here.

766
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 1: I think that it's it's another political environment, right, you know,

767
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:03,000
Speaker 1: you me how South Carolina working class voters are going

768
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 1: to benefit from high tariffs and things like that. So, uh,

769
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:13,200
Speaker 1: it's it's a it's it's again. I'm not saying it's

770
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:15,960
Speaker 1: going to happen, but it's if if it does happen.

771
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 1: It's one of the five races I would put in there.

772
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 1: Number two on my list is Mississippi, as I previewed,

773
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 1: almost the identical situation uh as South Carolina. But you

774
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:29,800
Speaker 1: also have an incumbent who's just not hasn't left a

775
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:34,759
Speaker 1: heavy footprint yet in the state, Cindy Hyde Smith. You know,

776
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:38,759
Speaker 1: Roger Wicker is definitely more of the senior senator and

777
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 1: he's on the higher profile committees. He's sort of involved

778
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 1: in the higher profile issues. I don't think Cindy Hyde

779
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 1: Smith has the same hold over over her voters or

780
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:54,560
Speaker 1: her seat that are previous senators from Mississippi have have

781
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:58,359
Speaker 1: had on their Senate seats. So look, she's you know

782
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:01,800
Speaker 1: it is. This is actually her campaign for a second

783
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 1: full term. She got she got appointed there two years

784
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:09,720
Speaker 1: and then second full term. So look that the Democrats

785
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:15,239
Speaker 1: have an interesting candidate here in somebody that was put

786
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 1: up for a judicial nomination rejected.

787
00:44:20,239 --> 00:44:20,479
Speaker 2: Again.

788
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 1: Mississippi a state we've seen it in the governor's races.

789
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:27,359
Speaker 1: It can be a competitive state. Takes a little bit

790
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 1: of work, but this is one of those where come October,

791
00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:34,680
Speaker 1: I fully expect a poll show in forty five forty

792
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 1: Sydney hind Smith and where there's a striking distance, where

793
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 1: there is a debate about whether how all in should

794
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:44,319
Speaker 1: Democrats go on Mississippi Senate. And then number one on

795
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:47,240
Speaker 1: my list of the of the five is actually Montana.

796
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:53,319
Speaker 1: You know, Montana is an R plus ten state. It

797
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 1: is you know, in some ways not having a high

798
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:58,600
Speaker 1: profile challenger this time like Steve Danes had the last time.

799
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 2: But the thing is, might might.

800
00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:04,120
Speaker 1: Be more beneficial right when when John Tester ran the

801
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:06,000
Speaker 1: first time, he was kind of the outsider. When Brian

802
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:10,799
Speaker 1: Schweitzer ran the first time, the outsider, Steve Bullock, you know,

803
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 1: was seen as as an outsider. So I think Dane's

804
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:18,200
Speaker 1: a pretty savvy politician. So I don't think he's going

805
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:20,560
Speaker 1: to get caught napping maybe the way some of these

806
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:24,360
Speaker 1: other incumbents could get caught napping. But Montana's also not

807
00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:27,279
Speaker 1: a hard right state, and they're going to be pretty sensitive,

808
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 1: especially if corruption starts to pop. Montana voters are a

809
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 1: bit more sensitive to corruption issues I think in general,

810
00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:40,319
Speaker 1: and a bit less tolerant of it no matter whose

811
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:44,360
Speaker 1: side is doing it. And if that becomes you know,

812
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:48,239
Speaker 1: sort of gets into the ecosystem in the campaign ecosystem,

813
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 1: what Trump's been doing with pardons and the self enrichment

814
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:54,320
Speaker 1: and all of that. You know, I think there's a reason.

815
00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 1: If you've noticed Steve Danes keeps a pretty low profile,

816
00:45:57,360 --> 00:45:59,920
Speaker 1: he does not want to necessarily pop his head up

817
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:04,080
Speaker 1: on this front. It is Look, Montana is a populist,

818
00:46:04,200 --> 00:46:06,799
Speaker 1: it's a right leaning state, but there's a it's a

819
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 1: populous state, and it is one of those you can

820
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:11,880
Speaker 1: get on the wrong side, and the Democrats are well

821
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 1: organized in the state. So the point is is that

822
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:17,400
Speaker 1: I think these are five races nobody's talking about at

823
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:20,560
Speaker 1: the moment. Nobody believes are going to be competitive. Nobody

824
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 1: believes maybe nobody at the d SEC is even looking

825
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 1: at it. But I promise you, if this is as

826
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:29,680
Speaker 1: as bad of a political environment as it looks like

827
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:33,879
Speaker 1: it's growing into for Republicans, one of these five, if

828
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:36,200
Speaker 1: not more of them, but one of those five Florida, Kentucky,

829
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:40,399
Speaker 1: South Carolina, Mississippi, Montana will be a seriously targeted race

830
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:43,759
Speaker 1: and might actually flip come election Day twenty twenty six.

831
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 1: If this trajectory of where the political environment is going

832
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:52,799
Speaker 1: stays on the same trajectory, there's a reason results matter

833
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:55,480
Speaker 1: more than promises, just like there's a reason Morgan and

834
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 1: Morgan is America's largest injury law firm. For the last

835
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:02,319
Speaker 1: thirty five years, they've recovered twenty five billion dollars for

836
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 1: more than half a million clients. It includes cases where

837
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 1: insurance companies offered next to nothing, just hoping to get

838
00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:11,760
Speaker 1: away with paying as little as possible. Morgan and Morgan

839
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:14,960
Speaker 1: fought back ended up winning millions. In fact, in Pennsylvania,

840
00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:18,239
Speaker 1: one client was awarded twenty six million dollars, which was

841
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:21,720
Speaker 1: a staggering forty times the amount that the insurance company

842
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Speaker 1: originally offered. That original offer six hundred and fifty thousand

843
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Speaker 1: dollars twenty six million, six hundred and fifty thousand dollars.

844
00:47:27,800 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 1: So with more than one thousand lawyers across the country,

845
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846
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Speaker 1: you need a lawyer, You need somebody to get your back.

847
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Speaker 1: Check out for Thepeople dot Com, Slash podcast, or dial

848
00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:44,720
Speaker 1: pound Law Pound five to nine law on your cell phone.

849
00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:46,920
Speaker 1: And remember all law firms are not the same, So

850
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 1: check out Morgan and Morgan.

851
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:49,279
Speaker 2: Their fee is free.

852
00:47:49,280 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 1: Unless they win, all right, So with that, let's get

853
00:47:55,120 --> 00:48:01,120
Speaker 1: to semester as check. My first question comes.

854
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 2: From Nate Nate's in Yorkville, Illinois.

855
00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:07,040
Speaker 1: Nate confesses I almost skipped the Clay Travis episode, but

856
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:08,680
Speaker 1: I'm glad I gave it a listen. It was a guest.

857
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:11,040
Speaker 1: It was a great conversation. He came across as thoughtful

858
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:14,040
Speaker 1: and engaging. Thanks for pushing us outside our bubbles and

859
00:48:14,080 --> 00:48:16,879
Speaker 1: featuring voices we might not normally hear. I also fully

860
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:19,080
Speaker 1: agree with your Thanksgiving take best holiday by far and

861
00:48:19,120 --> 00:48:21,320
Speaker 1: your Turkey Day top five a spot on, especially the

862
00:48:21,400 --> 00:48:25,240
Speaker 1: pumpkin pie thoughts Nate podcast fan since the nineteen forty

863
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 1: seven days.

864
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:27,839
Speaker 2: That's super old school. Appreciate it, Nate.

865
00:48:28,360 --> 00:48:30,759
Speaker 1: Thanks for saying that, Like, that's what I'm trying to do,

866
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:33,359
Speaker 1: And in some ways, I hope Matt Higgins is a

867
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:38,840
Speaker 1: similar type of conversation, trying to expose people, to expose lists,

868
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:42,000
Speaker 1: expose you know that this is I just look at

869
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 1: it this way. These are people I'm trying to learn

870
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:47,120
Speaker 1: something from, trying to understand better, and if it's helping

871
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:49,400
Speaker 1: me understand something better, I'm assuming it's.

872
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:50,839
Speaker 2: Going to help you understand something better.

873
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 1: So that's kind of the way I just view myself

874
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:57,720
Speaker 1: as sort of what helps me sort of get smarter

875
00:48:58,160 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 1: about both sides of the aisle, understanding the as I

876
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:06,360
Speaker 1: call myself a political anthropologist. You know, I want to

877
00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:12,120
Speaker 1: understand folks that live in a variety of bubbles, and

878
00:49:12,160 --> 00:49:14,000
Speaker 1: I don't. I'm not going to presume we just have

879
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:16,640
Speaker 1: two bubbles in this country. I think we have quite

880
00:49:16,680 --> 00:49:20,160
Speaker 1: a few. So I appreciate that. And I left out,

881
00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 1: by the way my numbers, I left out the single

882
00:49:23,160 --> 00:49:25,719
Speaker 1: most important thing I do every Thanksgiving, and that is

883
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:31,120
Speaker 1: I make this turkey chili with the leftover turkey. And

884
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:37,000
Speaker 1: the real question is how long? The question is how

885
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:40,760
Speaker 1: long is it? Is it okay to keep around? Because

886
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:43,040
Speaker 1: it is one of those chili's it gets better every

887
00:49:43,120 --> 00:49:45,680
Speaker 1: day for a period of time. Then there's the point

888
00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 1: then everything starts to taste old, right, But there's something

889
00:49:48,200 --> 00:49:52,280
Speaker 1: about putting all the flavors together. You know. Today, certainly

890
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 1: I'm taping here on a Tuesday. I had it a

891
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:57,840
Speaker 1: lunch again for lunch today. It's we're still in peak.

892
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:00,879
Speaker 1: I think we're still in it's it's in peak mode.

893
00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:02,839
Speaker 1: But I'm probably now on the other side of the hill.

894
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:07,920
Speaker 1: Is it worth freezing or not? Would you freeze leftover

895
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 1: at chilling? I am probably not going to do it,

896
00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 1: but I'm contemplating it. So I would love I'd love

897
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:18,320
Speaker 1: your thoughts on that, if any of you want to

898
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:20,000
Speaker 1: chime in that. All right, next question comes from Dan.

899
00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 1: He says, Hey, Chuck, what is the public to make

900
00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:24,719
Speaker 1: of all the recent attempted censures in the House of Representatives?

901
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:27,120
Speaker 1: Some of it is dem on dem and GOP and gop.

902
00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:28,440
Speaker 2: Is it based in a.

903
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:32,880
Speaker 1: Sense of morality, opportunistic acts, grinding or both? Dan, you know,

904
00:50:32,920 --> 00:50:35,400
Speaker 1: it's interesting, Dan. I talked to Mike Turner about this

905
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:37,880
Speaker 1: on my new sphere show. He brought this up to

906
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:40,760
Speaker 1: me as a Republican from Ohio. But he noted how

907
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 1: at the time of our interview, sort of this he

908
00:50:42,640 --> 00:50:46,719
Speaker 1: had was sort of almost a similar observation that you did,

909
00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:49,319
Speaker 1: which is like, what the hell is this? What is it?

910
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:51,640
Speaker 1: I mean, you know where it is. But it was

911
00:50:51,719 --> 00:50:54,200
Speaker 1: his way of pointing out of what a terrible place

912
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 1: it is to work right now.

913
00:50:58,200 --> 00:50:59,160
Speaker 2: He chalked it up.

914
00:50:59,080 --> 00:51:01,919
Speaker 1: To being up away from Washington for over a month.

915
00:51:03,080 --> 00:51:07,439
Speaker 1: Mike Johnson's decision to keep the House out of DC

916
00:51:07,640 --> 00:51:11,640
Speaker 1: during the shutdown just drove members crazy, and so it

917
00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:13,960
Speaker 1: was like, you know, it's like you kink da hoose

918
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:18,160
Speaker 1: and then young kinked it and whoom right, and when

919
00:51:18,200 --> 00:51:21,799
Speaker 1: people came back to Washington, they came back ready to go.

920
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:22,160
Speaker 2: Right.

921
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:25,000
Speaker 1: So you had Marie Glusen Camper's going, what the hell's

922
00:51:25,080 --> 00:51:28,399
Speaker 1: Chewy Garciado? Right? That was the dem On dem one

923
00:51:28,440 --> 00:51:31,279
Speaker 1: where she's like, that was an underhanded move. If we

924
00:51:31,320 --> 00:51:34,800
Speaker 1: think Trump's regging an election, that's no different. We should

925
00:51:34,800 --> 00:51:37,919
Speaker 1: denounce it. By the way, I think MGP is right,

926
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:40,920
Speaker 1: I am. I think Marie Glusen camp Perez is one

927
00:51:40,960 --> 00:51:43,480
Speaker 1: of the If I would to say, who the if

928
00:51:43,480 --> 00:51:45,720
Speaker 1: I were to do my best Barbara Walters and who's

929
00:51:45,760 --> 00:51:48,520
Speaker 1: the five most interesting Democrats right now to talk to,

930
00:51:48,960 --> 00:51:51,840
Speaker 1: she'd be in my top five list on that one.

931
00:51:52,080 --> 00:51:54,600
Speaker 1: She's she's fascinating to me, and I think that there's

932
00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:59,680
Speaker 1: a there's a populist honesty to her that I think

933
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:08,359
Speaker 1: is infectious and fascinating and you know, definitely worth Uh.

934
00:52:08,719 --> 00:52:11,279
Speaker 1: She's trust me. I'm trying to book her. I'm going

935
00:52:11,320 --> 00:52:13,080
Speaker 1: to bring her to you as soon as we can

936
00:52:13,080 --> 00:52:16,320
Speaker 1: get her to say, agree to agree to an interview.

937
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 1: So some of it is the members blame on that,

938
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:20,719
Speaker 1: but I think some of it is just simply the

939
00:52:20,760 --> 00:52:25,239
Speaker 1: current political environment, right, think about it. The Democrats are

940
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:28,600
Speaker 1: unhappy with their leadership, and they're unhappy with what they're

941
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:30,520
Speaker 1: having to deal with Donald Trump, and they're really mad

942
00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:33,319
Speaker 1: about Joe Biden still, so it's just a cranky group

943
00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:38,360
Speaker 1: of Democrats. Republicans feel as if they've been pushed aside,

944
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:41,600
Speaker 1: particularly after the shutdown. They feel as if they do

945
00:52:41,640 --> 00:52:44,600
Speaker 1: nothing but to you know, go back to Marjorie Taylor

946
00:52:44,640 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 1: Green statement, they feel as if they do nothing but

947
00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 1: defend Trump and all they get is grief and return

948
00:52:51,880 --> 00:52:54,399
Speaker 1: or they get set aside, or they get dealt out.

949
00:52:55,200 --> 00:52:57,719
Speaker 1: So even though in some ways this is a Republican

950
00:52:57,840 --> 00:53:01,520
Speaker 1: governing renaissance, in theory could be right. You have controlled

951
00:53:01,560 --> 00:53:04,800
Speaker 1: the House, the Senate, and the presidency, and the president

952
00:53:04,840 --> 00:53:07,000
Speaker 1: has control of his party in a way that no

953
00:53:07,120 --> 00:53:12,680
Speaker 1: president has had. Frankly, you know, Obama didn't have a

954
00:53:12,680 --> 00:53:16,200
Speaker 1: grip like this under Democrats, and maybe for a temporary

955
00:53:16,239 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 1: period Bush had a grip on the Republicans like this

956
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:23,720
Speaker 1: after nine to eleven, but not.

957
00:53:21,520 --> 00:53:22,080
Speaker 2: Not like this.

958
00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 1: And so in theory it should be a golden age

959
00:53:27,880 --> 00:53:31,399
Speaker 1: for legislating, and yet it hasn't. Right, instead, Trump wants

960
00:53:31,440 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 1: to sign executive orders. He doesn't want to bother watching

961
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:39,960
Speaker 1: letting the sausage be made. So I think it's that

962
00:53:40,160 --> 00:53:43,879
Speaker 1: nobody's happy, right. House Republicans aren't happy that they don't

963
00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:47,719
Speaker 1: get to govern, and House Democrats are unhappy at their

964
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:49,880
Speaker 1: position and are pissed off at all their leaders for

965
00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:54,080
Speaker 1: they believe putting them in this place. So you put

966
00:53:54,080 --> 00:53:57,080
Speaker 1: it all together, and it's just think about your own

967
00:53:57,760 --> 00:54:00,479
Speaker 1: bad day. I think about this, and I I will

968
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:03,920
Speaker 1: you know, I've been this way as a boss. I've

969
00:54:03,920 --> 00:54:05,799
Speaker 1: been this way as a parent. Right, you've had a

970
00:54:05,840 --> 00:54:10,520
Speaker 1: bad day and then somebody does something that's just slightly annoying,

971
00:54:11,280 --> 00:54:14,360
Speaker 1: might be an employee, might be a kid. Isn't worth

972
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:17,560
Speaker 1: you losing your cool about, But you lose you're cool

973
00:54:17,600 --> 00:54:21,239
Speaker 1: because you're already upset about sixteen other things. That's the

974
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:24,719
Speaker 1: equivalent of I think the situation that the House of

975
00:54:24,760 --> 00:54:27,719
Speaker 1: Representatives is feeling these days, And I just think that's

976
00:54:27,760 --> 00:54:31,080
Speaker 1: the way anybody in elective politics feels this way right now.

977
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 1: Everybody feels like they're all out, that they all are

978
00:54:34,840 --> 00:54:37,759
Speaker 1: out for themselves, not because they want to be, because

979
00:54:37,800 --> 00:54:39,839
Speaker 1: they don't think they have any other choice because they

980
00:54:39,880 --> 00:54:44,720
Speaker 1: really don't trust anybody else to look out for themselves.

981
00:54:45,880 --> 00:54:49,920
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Randall van der Vahal from Lighten, Netherlands.

982
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:53,520
Speaker 1: I hope leading or lighten my apologies, he says, as

983
00:54:53,520 --> 00:54:55,600
Speaker 1: a listener from the Netherlands, I struggle to understand how

984
00:54:55,640 --> 00:54:59,640
Speaker 1: so many still support leaders who behave irresponsibly and unpredictably.

985
00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:01,560
Speaker 1: It feels like both Europe and the US are losing

986
00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:04,680
Speaker 1: a shared sense of purpose with real leadership and short supply.

987
00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:07,200
Speaker 1: I agree Europe should take more responsibility for its own security,

988
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:09,319
Speaker 1: but we need leaders who think beyond themselves. How do

989
00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:12,759
Speaker 1: we get accountable, responsible leaders into power again? And what

990
00:55:12,880 --> 00:55:15,480
Speaker 1: needs to change in our democracies to make that possible.

991
00:55:16,239 --> 00:55:19,640
Speaker 1: So this is where I think populism and nationalism gets contagious,

992
00:55:19,680 --> 00:55:23,680
Speaker 1: and it's the wrong type of contagious. And as leader

993
00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:26,400
Speaker 1: of the free world the United States, how you know

994
00:55:26,440 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 1: we set an example right whatever whatever posture we take

995
00:55:30,640 --> 00:55:34,279
Speaker 1: are when we're leaning in as as leader of the

996
00:55:34,320 --> 00:55:39,680
Speaker 1: free world in a more internationalists posture, say in the

997
00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:45,520
Speaker 1: era of Frankly from Eisenhower to Obama, in general, right

998
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:50,920
Speaker 1: we viewed we did every president between Eisenhower and Obama

999
00:55:52,960 --> 00:55:55,640
Speaker 1: came into office believing America was leader of the free world,

1000
00:55:55,719 --> 00:56:00,560
Speaker 1: and we put that in quotes there. Free world, believe

1001
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:03,920
Speaker 1: that the relationship with Europe was second to none, that

1002
00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:09,719
Speaker 1: it was the single most important relationship there was, and

1003
00:56:11,719 --> 00:56:17,239
Speaker 1: that democracy was the ultimate goal. Freedom and democracy was

1004
00:56:17,239 --> 00:56:17,920
Speaker 1: the ultimate goal.

1005
00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:20,719
Speaker 2: The media that that was going to be.

1006
00:56:20,760 --> 00:56:23,799
Speaker 1: Our number one export over time. But in many ways

1007
00:56:24,200 --> 00:56:26,719
Speaker 1: we set an example. So how we behave is how

1008
00:56:26,760 --> 00:56:29,920
Speaker 1: other countries think it's okay to behave. And as we

1009
00:56:30,000 --> 00:56:34,200
Speaker 1: sort of became more nationalistic, other countries get more nationalistic.

1010
00:56:34,600 --> 00:56:37,760
Speaker 1: When we decide to direct tariff barriers.

1011
00:56:37,400 --> 00:56:39,840
Speaker 2: Other countries decide to erect tariff barriers.

1012
00:56:40,120 --> 00:56:44,160
Speaker 1: And so you end up it. And so this is

1013
00:56:44,160 --> 00:56:47,560
Speaker 1: a case where I think the United States and yeah,

1014
00:56:47,600 --> 00:56:49,800
Speaker 1: you could say Brexit was sort of a sort of

1015
00:56:49,840 --> 00:56:54,960
Speaker 1: a starting gun that was fired on this movement towards nationalism,

1016
00:56:55,440 --> 00:56:58,719
Speaker 1: but that the collective move towards nationalism. And this is

1017
00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:01,240
Speaker 1: you know, the last time we were in a position

1018
00:57:01,360 --> 00:57:03,279
Speaker 1: like this. You know, we ended up in a couple

1019
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:07,920
Speaker 1: of world wars. You know, we had forms of nationalism, arguably,

1020
00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:10,480
Speaker 1: or how we got into World War One, and certainly

1021
00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:15,120
Speaker 1: how we got into World War two. So I think

1022
00:57:15,160 --> 00:57:18,440
Speaker 1: that's I think that is at the root of all this.

1023
00:57:19,200 --> 00:57:26,040
Speaker 1: Right the more when when America becomes more isolationists, more protectionists,

1024
00:57:26,120 --> 00:57:29,080
Speaker 1: well so does everybody else, because it's you know, you're

1025
00:57:29,160 --> 00:57:32,240
Speaker 1: you're going to behave like the you know, like the

1026
00:57:32,240 --> 00:57:34,720
Speaker 1: big dog is going to behave And so I think

1027
00:57:34,800 --> 00:57:36,440
Speaker 1: that has a huge part of it.

1028
00:57:36,520 --> 00:57:37,160
Speaker 2: I think that.

1029
00:57:39,360 --> 00:57:41,920
Speaker 1: We do. We are in the middle of an economic transition,

1030
00:57:42,040 --> 00:57:45,040
Speaker 1: and this is a major one. We haven't had an

1031
00:57:45,040 --> 00:57:47,440
Speaker 1: economic transition like this in over one hundred years, and

1032
00:57:47,480 --> 00:57:49,400
Speaker 1: the last time we had it when we went from

1033
00:57:49,400 --> 00:57:52,120
Speaker 1: an a grarian to industrial. Think about all the revolutions

1034
00:57:52,120 --> 00:57:54,560
Speaker 1: that happened across the globe. Right, we had the Russian Revolution,

1035
00:57:54,640 --> 00:57:56,320
Speaker 1: we had the fall of the Ottoman Empire, we had

1036
00:57:56,440 --> 00:57:59,600
Speaker 1: the First World basically the First Great War we called it,

1037
00:58:00,320 --> 00:58:02,720
Speaker 1: where it felt like the entire globe was fighting each other.

1038
00:58:04,960 --> 00:58:07,800
Speaker 1: But in some ways that was due to fear of

1039
00:58:07,880 --> 00:58:11,880
Speaker 1: what was coming next. Right, the Teutonic place were shifting

1040
00:58:11,920 --> 00:58:16,360
Speaker 1: in geopolitics, the United States was becoming a world power,

1041
00:58:17,600 --> 00:58:20,400
Speaker 1: and the powers that were the dominant powers of the

1042
00:58:20,400 --> 00:58:24,680
Speaker 1: eighteenth and nineteenth century we're trying to hang onto power, right,

1043
00:58:24,760 --> 00:58:28,640
Speaker 1: So we are in the middle, and I think we

1044
00:58:28,680 --> 00:58:31,040
Speaker 1: can't underestimate we are in the middle of this great

1045
00:58:31,080 --> 00:58:34,000
Speaker 1: transition from an industrial to whatever this new economy is

1046
00:58:34,000 --> 00:58:37,840
Speaker 1: going to look like, this tech driven, service driven AI

1047
00:58:37,960 --> 00:58:42,640
Speaker 1: driven Right, we know this is going to dramatically change

1048
00:58:42,640 --> 00:58:48,200
Speaker 1: the nature of work, and ultimately, over time it's probably

1049
00:58:48,240 --> 00:58:51,480
Speaker 1: going to be to the benefit of humanity. But the

1050
00:58:51,520 --> 00:58:54,120
Speaker 1: transition is going to be awful, just like the Industrial

1051
00:58:54,160 --> 00:58:56,880
Speaker 1: Revolution was to the overall benefit of humanity when you

1052
00:58:56,880 --> 00:58:59,000
Speaker 1: look at it through one hundred year prism. But the

1053
00:58:59,040 --> 00:59:01,320
Speaker 1: first twenty years of the end utual revolution was terrible

1054
00:59:02,000 --> 00:59:05,240
Speaker 1: if you look at it in terms of livelihoods lost

1055
00:59:05,320 --> 00:59:11,080
Speaker 1: and things like that. So this is where I play

1056
00:59:11,160 --> 00:59:13,120
Speaker 1: sort of amateur historian, and I said, let's take a

1057
00:59:13,120 --> 00:59:16,600
Speaker 1: step back and realize, this is a moment in time. Now,

1058
00:59:16,680 --> 00:59:19,480
Speaker 1: why are we in this moment in time? I try

1059
00:59:19,520 --> 00:59:22,600
Speaker 1: to comfort myself by sort of trying to at least

1060
00:59:22,640 --> 00:59:25,800
Speaker 1: understand how we got here, and we kind of know

1061
00:59:25,800 --> 00:59:28,000
Speaker 1: how we're going to get out. The question is can

1062
00:59:28,040 --> 00:59:30,520
Speaker 1: we get out without a world war? Can we get

1063
00:59:30,560 --> 00:59:37,680
Speaker 1: out without internal civil wars, without dramatic sort of ideological revolutions? Right,

1064
00:59:38,440 --> 00:59:41,680
Speaker 1: will the transition be smoother than it was between the industry,

1065
00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:45,160
Speaker 1: between the agrarian and the industrial. You know, that was

1066
00:59:45,160 --> 00:59:49,560
Speaker 1: a very violent transition when when you look at it

1067
00:59:49,600 --> 00:59:53,520
Speaker 1: in hindsight, we don't we don't necessarily always cover it

1068
00:59:53,560 --> 00:59:55,680
Speaker 1: that way. We just sort of like, ah, and then

1069
00:59:55,720 --> 00:59:58,080
Speaker 1: the industrial revolution began, and yeah, we had some child

1070
00:59:58,160 --> 01:00:00,800
Speaker 1: labor laws, we had something to that, right. You know,

1071
01:00:01,600 --> 01:00:03,680
Speaker 1: it is like when we were in the moment. I

1072
01:00:03,680 --> 01:00:06,160
Speaker 1: don't think people felt like, oh, some man, this is

1073
01:00:06,160 --> 01:00:08,800
Speaker 1: gonna be great. Everybody's gonna have electricity, and everybody's gonna

1074
01:00:08,800 --> 01:00:11,400
Speaker 1: have We're all gonna someday just sit on couches and

1075
01:00:11,440 --> 01:00:15,680
Speaker 1: watch stuff picture, moving pictures on video screens. Right. You know,

1076
01:00:16,120 --> 01:00:17,760
Speaker 1: people didn't know what their lives were going to look

1077
01:00:17,800 --> 01:00:20,120
Speaker 1: like thirty years later. Then they had no clue what

1078
01:00:20,200 --> 01:00:21,919
Speaker 1: their life was going to be like thirty years later

1079
01:00:22,360 --> 01:00:26,200
Speaker 1: because that unknown was because it was unknown, it was

1080
01:00:26,240 --> 01:00:34,320
Speaker 1: all fear. So I think that here's here's why I

1081
01:00:34,320 --> 01:00:37,080
Speaker 1: always say, trust the voters. The voters eventually figured out.

1082
01:00:38,240 --> 01:00:40,200
Speaker 1: I think the voters are starting to figure it out

1083
01:00:40,240 --> 01:00:43,160
Speaker 1: in Europe. I think the voters are figuring it will

1084
01:00:43,280 --> 01:00:45,200
Speaker 1: continue to figure it out in this country.

1085
01:00:46,960 --> 01:00:49,200
Speaker 2: And in stability.

1086
01:00:49,320 --> 01:00:56,120
Speaker 1: You know, there's always a a bias towards stability, okay,

1087
01:00:56,240 --> 01:00:59,720
Speaker 1: whatever that is. And at some point, you know, we're

1088
01:00:59,720 --> 01:01:01,760
Speaker 1: gonna we're going to get there. But I think we're

1089
01:01:01,800 --> 01:01:04,439
Speaker 1: in the middle of something that is just simply we're

1090
01:01:04,480 --> 01:01:07,480
Speaker 1: in the middle of a rocking you know, vote and

1091
01:01:07,560 --> 01:01:10,280
Speaker 1: choppy waters and it's just going to be a while

1092
01:01:10,400 --> 01:01:15,040
Speaker 1: to the water settle. I know that wasn't the best answer,

1093
01:01:16,000 --> 01:01:20,680
Speaker 1: but I think that that's the larger reason why we're here.

1094
01:01:23,640 --> 01:01:26,640
Speaker 1: But I also think that, you know, ultimately, people vote

1095
01:01:26,680 --> 01:01:31,040
Speaker 1: based on their own livelihoods, and there's been a lot

1096
01:01:31,040 --> 01:01:33,480
Speaker 1: of promises made by many of these nationalists and many

1097
01:01:33,520 --> 01:01:35,640
Speaker 1: of these popularis and they're not being able to fulfill them.

1098
01:01:36,320 --> 01:01:38,640
Speaker 1: And I think and instead it looks like there's just

1099
01:01:38,680 --> 01:01:42,360
Speaker 1: been nothing but grift and graft. I think that's going

1100
01:01:42,400 --> 01:01:45,080
Speaker 1: to be how these movements end. That's usually how many

1101
01:01:45,120 --> 01:01:48,360
Speaker 1: a political movement ends. It ends in corruption. That's what

1102
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:52,320
Speaker 1: this one feels like, at least in this country. Next question,

1103
01:01:52,800 --> 01:01:56,840
Speaker 1: I love it you signed it your champ. It's pretty

1104
01:01:56,880 --> 01:02:00,240
Speaker 1: neat to end up with the nickname champ. I hope

1105
01:02:00,240 --> 01:02:02,520
Speaker 1: you're a champ in something. But anyway, this next question

1106
01:02:02,640 --> 01:02:06,200
Speaker 1: is just from Champ, you better have won something that

1107
01:02:06,240 --> 01:02:10,160
Speaker 1: got you the nickname, and I kind of think it's

1108
01:02:10,160 --> 01:02:13,880
Speaker 1: got to be at least high school championship are above Like,

1109
01:02:13,920 --> 01:02:16,280
Speaker 1: if you're gonna come at me with a middle school championship,

1110
01:02:16,480 --> 01:02:19,120
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's worthy of the Champ nickname.

1111
01:02:19,160 --> 01:02:20,000
Speaker 2: That's just my opinion.

1112
01:02:21,040 --> 01:02:23,520
Speaker 1: But what am I doing insulting my listeners like this?

1113
01:02:23,560 --> 01:02:27,040
Speaker 1: So no insult Champ. You know, I'm just let me

1114
01:02:27,080 --> 01:02:27,760
Speaker 1: know what you want.

1115
01:02:28,200 --> 01:02:28,560
Speaker 2: Hey check.

1116
01:02:28,600 --> 01:02:30,560
Speaker 1: I'm curious about why President Biden seems to be facing

1117
01:02:30,680 --> 01:02:34,360
Speaker 1: challenges with donor support first presidential library, especially compared to

1118
01:02:34,360 --> 01:02:37,440
Speaker 1: past presidents like Clinton or Obama, who secured major deals

1119
01:02:37,440 --> 01:02:40,400
Speaker 1: in funding post being in office. Reports suggests donors are

1120
01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:43,160
Speaker 1: hesitant due to the twenty twenty four election outcome, concerns

1121
01:02:43,160 --> 01:02:45,480
Speaker 1: over Biden's South, then fear of Trump error retaliation. Why

1122
01:02:45,480 --> 01:02:48,560
Speaker 1: do you think these post presidency opportunities are so different

1123
01:02:48,600 --> 01:02:50,880
Speaker 1: for Biden? And why might donors be so reluctant despite

1124
01:02:50,880 --> 01:02:57,080
Speaker 1: having the right to support him. So, look, I think

1125
01:02:57,080 --> 01:03:00,760
Speaker 1: it's just donor anger at the moment. And these weren't

1126
01:03:00,760 --> 01:03:04,960
Speaker 1: Biden donors, right, These were Democratic Party donors who always

1127
01:03:04,960 --> 01:03:08,200
Speaker 1: donated to who the Democratic nominee was, right, so they

1128
01:03:08,200 --> 01:03:10,320
Speaker 1: were their loyalty was to the party before it was

1129
01:03:10,360 --> 01:03:12,720
Speaker 1: loyalty to Biden. So I think there's a little bit

1130
01:03:12,760 --> 01:03:14,640
Speaker 1: of that, and it goes back to this has been

1131
01:03:14,640 --> 01:03:18,640
Speaker 1: a problem Biden's always had, right his his his loyal

1132
01:03:18,720 --> 01:03:21,000
Speaker 1: set of supporters have been very small. It's always been

1133
01:03:21,000 --> 01:03:23,720
Speaker 1: at small, tight circle. But there weren't you know, he

1134
01:03:23,760 --> 01:03:26,600
Speaker 1: was never a prolific fundraiser before he became president, so

1135
01:03:26,640 --> 01:03:31,520
Speaker 1: he didn't have like a donor network that akin to

1136
01:03:31,640 --> 01:03:33,840
Speaker 1: what most presidents have. And when you have a donor

1137
01:03:33,840 --> 01:03:35,840
Speaker 1: network like that, it's easy to tap into them for

1138
01:03:35,880 --> 01:03:38,680
Speaker 1: the library. Obama had a devoted donor network that was

1139
01:03:38,680 --> 01:03:41,200
Speaker 1: the Obama donor network. It wasn't one that belonged to

1140
01:03:41,200 --> 01:03:43,959
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party more than it belonged to him.

1141
01:03:44,560 --> 01:03:46,439
Speaker 2: This is also true of Trump. This is also true

1142
01:03:46,440 --> 01:03:48,840
Speaker 2: of Bush. It's also true of Clinton. It's also true.

1143
01:03:50,120 --> 01:03:52,400
Speaker 1: Both Bush, Bushes, Reagan. I can keep going on and on.

1144
01:03:55,000 --> 01:03:58,080
Speaker 1: It is you know, even Carter had his set of

1145
01:03:58,320 --> 01:04:01,560
Speaker 1: his set of donors. I'm surprised that Biden doesn't have

1146
01:04:02,720 --> 01:04:05,919
Speaker 1: more folks in Delaware and in Philadelphia chipping in right,

1147
01:04:05,960 --> 01:04:09,120
Speaker 1: that was always his sort of community was the Philadelphia

1148
01:04:09,600 --> 01:04:12,840
Speaker 1: business community and the banking sort of the banking industry

1149
01:04:13,320 --> 01:04:17,920
Speaker 1: of Delaware or you know, because of the incorporation rules

1150
01:04:17,920 --> 01:04:20,000
Speaker 1: that they have in Delaware that there was certainly a

1151
01:04:20,000 --> 01:04:24,480
Speaker 1: lot of He never had any trouble raising pac money

1152
01:04:24,520 --> 01:04:26,440
Speaker 1: as a senator put it that way, but he was

1153
01:04:26,440 --> 01:04:29,880
Speaker 1: never the most prolific. So but I think so, I

1154
01:04:29,880 --> 01:04:33,000
Speaker 1: think you have the main you have Democratic donors who

1155
01:04:33,080 --> 01:04:36,720
Speaker 1: donated to Biden but never considered themselves Biden donors, still

1156
01:04:36,880 --> 01:04:40,919
Speaker 1: pretty angry at him, And so I don't think there's

1157
01:04:41,200 --> 01:04:44,360
Speaker 1: so you have that issue. You know, he could use

1158
01:04:44,360 --> 01:04:47,080
Speaker 1: a sugar daddy, like one big donor that might be,

1159
01:04:47,360 --> 01:04:50,160
Speaker 1: you know that might really want to have a presidential

1160
01:04:50,200 --> 01:04:52,720
Speaker 1: library at the University of Delaware, might really want to

1161
01:04:52,880 --> 01:04:54,960
Speaker 1: see something like that, or if they wanted to see

1162
01:04:54,960 --> 01:04:58,440
Speaker 1: it at Penn. Yeah, it's definitely supposed to be in Delaware.

1163
01:04:58,480 --> 01:05:04,960
Speaker 1: He announced that in September. Here's my guess, and what

1164
01:05:05,160 --> 01:05:12,240
Speaker 1: usually is the secret to finding presidential donors? Wealthy foreigners

1165
01:05:14,800 --> 01:05:19,560
Speaker 1: and so uh in that sense, I do wonder if

1166
01:05:19,680 --> 01:05:23,960
Speaker 1: Trump does scare off, if you know, if he's gonna

1167
01:05:24,200 --> 01:05:27,560
Speaker 1: raise money anonymously but I don't think that's in Biden's nature,

1168
01:05:27,560 --> 01:05:31,880
Speaker 1: and that would make people uncomfortable. I do think there

1169
01:05:31,920 --> 01:05:35,040
Speaker 1: is some concern by some major donors that they don't

1170
01:05:35,040 --> 01:05:38,400
Speaker 1: want to. They don't want to, they don't want to

1171
01:05:38,640 --> 01:05:41,840
Speaker 1: that they they believe, but donating to Biden in a

1172
01:05:41,880 --> 01:05:44,000
Speaker 1: public way in the Biden library would put a target

1173
01:05:44,040 --> 01:05:47,040
Speaker 1: on their back for the Trump administration. I think that

1174
01:05:47,160 --> 01:05:51,920
Speaker 1: fear is real, and I don't think it's unfounded in

1175
01:05:51,920 --> 01:05:57,120
Speaker 1: in defense here, but I do think, uh, the biggest

1176
01:05:57,160 --> 01:05:59,760
Speaker 1: reason why he's had so much trouble is.

1177
01:06:01,400 --> 01:06:06,880
Speaker 2: His anger. All right. Next question comes from Adam Shlip.

1178
01:06:07,360 --> 01:06:08,880
Speaker 2: I hope I pronounced that correctly.

1179
01:06:09,200 --> 01:06:11,400
Speaker 1: Hey, listen to your episode on MTG, and Trump reminded

1180
01:06:11,440 --> 01:06:13,520
Speaker 1: me of Benedict Arnold, specifically how he flipped not for

1181
01:06:13,560 --> 01:06:16,680
Speaker 1: ideology but for vanity and money. Trump, like Arnold, seems

1182
01:06:16,680 --> 01:06:18,680
Speaker 1: to have no real convictions, just a price. Even the

1183
01:06:18,680 --> 01:06:21,800
Speaker 1: British Canadians eventually rejected Arnold because no one trusts someone

1184
01:06:21,840 --> 01:06:24,760
Speaker 1: who sells out their own cause. Could Trump's legacy follow

1185
01:06:24,840 --> 01:06:27,320
Speaker 1: a similar arc if the true believers eventually walk away?

1186
01:06:28,840 --> 01:06:32,600
Speaker 1: You know, Adam, I think that's quite possible, right, you know,

1187
01:06:32,960 --> 01:06:37,800
Speaker 1: I have said that, I think the biggest problem Republicans

1188
01:06:37,920 --> 01:06:40,520
Speaker 1: face in general over the next two years is I

1189
01:06:40,600 --> 01:06:42,560
Speaker 1: don't think Donald Trump cares about the future of the

1190
01:06:42,560 --> 01:06:46,120
Speaker 1: Republican Party. He didn't care about the Republican Party before

1191
01:06:46,760 --> 01:06:49,320
Speaker 1: he got into it. In fact, when he got there,

1192
01:06:49,400 --> 01:06:52,040
Speaker 1: he said, you know, all he did was criticize the party.

1193
01:06:52,280 --> 01:06:54,800
Speaker 1: All he said is what a terrible party it had been.

1194
01:06:55,280 --> 01:06:58,920
Speaker 1: They'd had stupid ideas or stupid people, you know, the

1195
01:06:58,960 --> 01:07:05,040
Speaker 1: typical Trump word and analysis. And if you told me

1196
01:07:06,000 --> 01:07:11,200
Speaker 1: in ten years Republicans hadn't elected, hadn't gotten control of

1197
01:07:11,240 --> 01:07:14,560
Speaker 1: the House, or the Senator, hadn't elected a president, whether

1198
01:07:14,600 --> 01:07:17,400
Speaker 1: Trump would be happy or sad about that if it

1199
01:07:17,440 --> 01:07:20,480
Speaker 1: were deemed that, you know, boy, only Trump seems to

1200
01:07:20,480 --> 01:07:24,600
Speaker 1: be the only Republican that can win elections. That's the

1201
01:07:24,680 --> 01:07:28,280
Speaker 1: legacy Trump would actually like the most, not that he helped.

1202
01:07:29,520 --> 01:07:34,360
Speaker 1: You know, if there were four straight presidents under the

1203
01:07:34,440 --> 01:07:39,600
Speaker 1: umbrella of MAGA post Trump, would that make them happy

1204
01:07:39,840 --> 01:07:41,920
Speaker 1: or would it make them happier if nobody could win

1205
01:07:42,400 --> 01:07:44,680
Speaker 1: that didn't have the last name of Trump? Right, I

1206
01:07:44,680 --> 01:07:49,040
Speaker 1: think we all know the answer to this, and I

1207
01:07:49,080 --> 01:07:52,000
Speaker 1: think deep down most Republicans know this too. He does

1208
01:07:52,040 --> 01:07:54,680
Speaker 1: not care about the future of the party. He cares

1209
01:07:54,720 --> 01:07:58,320
Speaker 1: about him, and that's the stuff in the last two

1210
01:07:58,400 --> 01:08:01,920
Speaker 1: years of a presidency and why these midterms, and this

1211
01:08:02,000 --> 01:08:04,480
Speaker 1: is why I think that some people are really hesitant

1212
01:08:04,520 --> 01:08:09,080
Speaker 1: about this redistricting gambit because they're trying This is all

1213
01:08:09,160 --> 01:08:13,600
Speaker 1: about Trump staving off lame ducks status for about six months,

1214
01:08:13,640 --> 01:08:15,560
Speaker 1: which is all it would do if he somehow holds

1215
01:08:15,560 --> 01:08:19,240
Speaker 1: the House. But he's just trying to preserve his own

1216
01:08:19,280 --> 01:08:23,559
Speaker 1: status at the expense perhaps of making Republicans more vulnerable

1217
01:08:23,560 --> 01:08:28,040
Speaker 1: in the long term. I think that's why you're seeing

1218
01:08:28,680 --> 01:08:32,080
Speaker 1: pushback in the places that I would expect it. Indiana

1219
01:08:32,120 --> 01:08:34,760
Speaker 1: is one of those kind of states that they're Republicans

1220
01:08:34,800 --> 01:08:38,320
Speaker 1: before they're Trump people. And you know, Utah's another one,

1221
01:08:38,640 --> 01:08:41,160
Speaker 1: but it's a It's certainly a place that I would

1222
01:08:42,880 --> 01:08:44,880
Speaker 1: and I'm not surprised to see this. But I also

1223
01:08:44,920 --> 01:08:50,240
Speaker 1: think that there's there's a little bit the I think

1224
01:08:50,240 --> 01:08:53,880
Speaker 1: there's the average Indiana Republican I think thinks that there's

1225
01:08:54,560 --> 01:08:58,639
Speaker 1: thinks about the world beyond Trump, and I think that

1226
01:08:58,640 --> 01:09:02,519
Speaker 1: that's that's what you be seeing this. I you know,

1227
01:09:04,080 --> 01:09:08,640
Speaker 1: I happen to think that the I will go this

1228
01:09:08,680 --> 01:09:11,880
Speaker 1: way as One of my favorite movie lines to use

1229
01:09:12,000 --> 01:09:15,640
Speaker 1: when talking about the industry of television is from the

1230
01:09:15,640 --> 01:09:18,080
Speaker 1: movie Cocktail. Everything else, everything ends badly, or else it

1231
01:09:18,080 --> 01:09:21,000
Speaker 1: wouldn't end. It's kind of how I feel about the Trump,

1232
01:09:21,320 --> 01:09:22,840
Speaker 1: how Trump's ten ure is going to end. And by

1233
01:09:22,840 --> 01:09:26,880
Speaker 1: the way, this is you know his you know, he

1234
01:09:26,960 --> 01:09:30,960
Speaker 1: was a disaster for Atlantic City. He eventually had his

1235
01:09:31,040 --> 01:09:35,479
Speaker 1: TV show canceled due to low ratings. Right, everything in

1236
01:09:35,520 --> 01:09:39,120
Speaker 1: Trump's life, every sort of six or seven year cycle

1237
01:09:39,600 --> 01:09:43,240
Speaker 1: has ended badly or else it wouldn't have ended. I

1238
01:09:43,280 --> 01:09:48,519
Speaker 1: suspect his political career is it's hard to imagine that's

1239
01:09:48,520 --> 01:09:51,080
Speaker 1: a legacy that's going to get better rather than worse.

1240
01:09:51,600 --> 01:09:54,200
Speaker 1: All right, last question for this episode. It comes from

1241
01:09:54,200 --> 01:09:56,920
Speaker 1: Andy from Indy speaking of Indiana. Hey, Chuck, as a

1242
01:09:56,920 --> 01:09:59,000
Speaker 1: millennial ouf and here from my peers that the political

1243
01:09:59,000 --> 01:10:02,120
Speaker 1: system feels broken and any honest critique tends to spiral

1244
01:10:02,160 --> 01:10:05,120
Speaker 1: into both parties are bad. The constant partisan battling has

1245
01:10:05,200 --> 01:10:08,360
Speaker 1: left many of us exhausted in dissillusion. While a viable

1246
01:10:08,400 --> 01:10:10,439
Speaker 1: third party seems unlikely anytime soon, do you think we

1247
01:10:10,439 --> 01:10:12,839
Speaker 1: could see a mixed party presidential ticket, say a Democrat

1248
01:10:12,840 --> 01:10:15,280
Speaker 1: with a Republican VP. Would love to hear your take

1249
01:10:15,320 --> 01:10:17,840
Speaker 1: on any combos you think could actually work. Andy from Indy.

1250
01:10:19,200 --> 01:10:22,360
Speaker 1: You know, look my old mentor, the late Doug Bailey,

1251
01:10:24,040 --> 01:10:25,840
Speaker 1: he had a vision in two thousand and eight. He

1252
01:10:25,920 --> 01:10:32,040
Speaker 1: thought he feared that a presidential election between which if

1253
01:10:32,840 --> 01:10:34,920
Speaker 1: starting in two thousand and five, the two front runners

1254
01:10:35,200 --> 01:10:38,800
Speaker 1: were loosely Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton. Right, this is

1255
01:10:39,920 --> 01:10:43,920
Speaker 1: before McCain didn't seem like as where the Republicans were

1256
01:10:43,920 --> 01:10:47,880
Speaker 1: going to go, and he thought that was going to

1257
01:10:47,880 --> 01:10:56,320
Speaker 1: be an opportunity for a bipartisan ticket, that Rudy v. Hillary,

1258
01:10:57,600 --> 01:11:01,640
Speaker 1: that Rudy v. Hillary would be so divisive that it

1259
01:11:01,680 --> 01:11:02,800
Speaker 1: would open the door for.

1260
01:11:02,760 --> 01:11:04,080
Speaker 2: A potential unity ticket.

1261
01:11:04,200 --> 01:11:07,560
Speaker 1: You know, think boy in two thousand and eight, I

1262
01:11:07,600 --> 01:11:09,960
Speaker 1: think I think he had a vision. He hoped it

1263
01:11:10,000 --> 01:11:12,720
Speaker 1: would be an Obama McCain or McCain Obama right like

1264
01:11:12,840 --> 01:11:18,479
Speaker 1: type of mindset. Or I think John Huntsman as sort

1265
01:11:18,479 --> 01:11:24,599
Speaker 1: of a Republican on one end, or a I'm trying

1266
01:11:24,640 --> 01:11:27,439
Speaker 1: to think of another Democrat at the time, maybe Mark Pryor,

1267
01:11:27,880 --> 01:11:32,240
Speaker 1: who was a conservative Democrat from from from Arkansas, but

1268
01:11:32,400 --> 01:11:38,400
Speaker 1: something under that category. You know, I think the only

1269
01:11:38,800 --> 01:11:41,080
Speaker 1: here's where I think that you know, I look at

1270
01:11:42,320 --> 01:11:46,320
Speaker 1: we've had three major our three major third party candidates

1271
01:11:46,320 --> 01:11:52,920
Speaker 1: for president in the last say one hundred and twenty years. Right,

1272
01:11:52,960 --> 01:11:55,960
Speaker 1: one was Teddy Roosevelt in nineteen twelve, one was George

1273
01:11:55,960 --> 01:11:59,320
Speaker 1: Wallace nineteen sixty eight, and one was Ross pro.

1274
01:12:00,720 --> 01:12:01,639
Speaker 2: In nineteen ninety two.

1275
01:12:02,600 --> 01:12:06,680
Speaker 1: And they did sort of help tip the election right,

1276
01:12:06,720 --> 01:12:13,519
Speaker 1: and they certainly influenced right Wallace's success, which nearly handed

1277
01:12:13,520 --> 01:12:16,160
Speaker 1: the election to Humphrey even though he was winning some

1278
01:12:16,240 --> 01:12:21,760
Speaker 1: of these But it certainly motivated Nixon to pursue a

1279
01:12:21,880 --> 01:12:24,439
Speaker 1: Southern strategy for the Republican Party and led to the

1280
01:12:24,439 --> 01:12:29,800
Speaker 1: eventual sort of Republicanization of the South. It sort of

1281
01:12:30,880 --> 01:12:34,800
Speaker 1: convinced Nixon to shift the Republican Party to the South

1282
01:12:34,840 --> 01:12:42,519
Speaker 1: for the future. Obviously, Teddy Roosevelt handing the presidency to

1283
01:12:42,560 --> 01:12:45,719
Speaker 1: the Democrats led to a different outcome on a variety

1284
01:12:45,720 --> 01:12:48,000
Speaker 1: of things, but sort of was an attempt to sort

1285
01:12:48,040 --> 01:12:50,240
Speaker 1: of reform both parties. I don't know if it fully did,

1286
01:12:50,280 --> 01:12:53,639
Speaker 1: to be honest, because a very corrupt Republican Party followed

1287
01:12:53,680 --> 01:12:57,439
Speaker 1: Wilson in the twenties, and so in some ways Teddy

1288
01:12:57,720 --> 01:12:59,800
Speaker 1: failed to do what he was trying to do, which

1289
01:13:00,120 --> 01:13:02,720
Speaker 1: form the Republican Party. We didn't get that version of

1290
01:13:02,760 --> 01:13:07,200
Speaker 1: the Republican Party really until Eisenhower. And I would argue

1291
01:13:07,200 --> 01:13:10,680
Speaker 1: that Perode had an impact on both parties fairly positively, right,

1292
01:13:10,760 --> 01:13:14,559
Speaker 1: got Republicans not being so reflexively free trade, and got

1293
01:13:14,560 --> 01:13:18,360
Speaker 1: Democrats to be a bit more concerned about the debt

1294
01:13:18,360 --> 01:13:21,519
Speaker 1: and deficit and more into fiscally responsible things.

1295
01:13:22,000 --> 01:13:23,120
Speaker 2: So I could picture eate.

1296
01:13:24,400 --> 01:13:27,000
Speaker 1: You know, we have sort of we have a trust

1297
01:13:27,720 --> 01:13:30,439
Speaker 1: deficit in this country, and that's where a bipartisan ticket

1298
01:13:30,479 --> 01:13:33,120
Speaker 1: could help restore that. If we're trying to restore trust

1299
01:13:33,160 --> 01:13:37,599
Speaker 1: in some institutions, if we're trying to reform institutions, doing

1300
01:13:37,680 --> 01:13:40,320
Speaker 1: it on a bipartisan level is about the only way

1301
01:13:40,360 --> 01:13:43,559
Speaker 1: you're going to get collected buy in. And if you know,

1302
01:13:44,000 --> 01:13:45,960
Speaker 1: if we feel as it, you know, to me, if

1303
01:13:46,000 --> 01:13:48,320
Speaker 1: the country, I think we need.

1304
01:13:49,960 --> 01:13:52,240
Speaker 2: By something like this, some.

1305
01:13:52,080 --> 01:13:55,320
Speaker 1: Sort of third party or to sort of to sort

1306
01:13:55,360 --> 01:13:58,599
Speaker 1: of force both parties to think of themselves in broader terms.

1307
01:13:58,640 --> 01:13:59,799
Speaker 2: Right, I don't think either party.

1308
01:14:00,240 --> 01:14:02,599
Speaker 1: I feel like they're both in retreat as far as

1309
01:14:02,680 --> 01:14:05,840
Speaker 1: they're you know, not thinking about creating broad majorities. But

1310
01:14:05,960 --> 01:14:10,920
Speaker 1: thinking about creating deep majority deep majorities, but more.

1311
01:14:10,840 --> 01:14:12,840
Speaker 2: Narrow and.

1312
01:14:14,479 --> 01:14:18,000
Speaker 1: So you know, you look out there. I will tell

1313
01:14:18,040 --> 01:14:22,799
Speaker 1: you this if you you know Wes Moore, uh, Spencer

1314
01:14:22,880 --> 01:14:25,360
Speaker 1: Cox right, And I don't care what order you.

1315
01:14:25,320 --> 01:14:25,840
Speaker 2: Give it to me.

1316
01:14:26,400 --> 01:14:31,160
Speaker 1: If we're looking for a pair of leaders, a bipartisan

1317
01:14:31,240 --> 01:14:37,040
Speaker 1: set of leaders who who who singular goal was to

1318
01:14:37,040 --> 01:14:42,280
Speaker 1: be pastors for patriotism, to sort of restore the idea

1319
01:14:42,720 --> 01:14:46,880
Speaker 1: of America before country before party, I think that would

1320
01:14:46,920 --> 01:14:49,360
Speaker 1: be your best ticket. And I don't care which order

1321
01:14:49,400 --> 01:14:52,519
Speaker 1: you put it in, but I think I think both

1322
01:14:52,560 --> 01:14:58,280
Speaker 1: of those gentlemen do govern thinking about their state before

1323
01:14:58,320 --> 01:15:01,439
Speaker 1: thinking about their party. And you know, I don't know

1324
01:15:01,479 --> 01:15:04,840
Speaker 1: how many I don't know how many elected officials i'd

1325
01:15:04,840 --> 01:15:09,519
Speaker 1: put in that category, but they're you know, they're two people,

1326
01:15:11,680 --> 01:15:16,160
Speaker 1: Mark Kelly, John Curtis, another Utah politician, John Curtis as

1327
01:15:16,200 --> 01:15:21,200
Speaker 1: a senator, you know Rafael Warnock and James Langford, the

1328
01:15:21,240 --> 01:15:24,960
Speaker 1: two ordained pastors in the Senate. That would be an

1329
01:15:24,960 --> 01:15:27,519
Speaker 1: interesting pairing to me. It's all about what moment are

1330
01:15:27,560 --> 01:15:30,400
Speaker 1: we trying to meet right at the time that you're

1331
01:15:30,400 --> 01:15:34,120
Speaker 1: trying to put this together. Is it to restore trust

1332
01:15:34,120 --> 01:15:38,799
Speaker 1: in government. Is it to restore faith in the country,

1333
01:15:38,840 --> 01:15:40,639
Speaker 1: is it to heal the country? Is it to try

1334
01:15:40,640 --> 01:15:43,320
Speaker 1: to unify the country? Right, I think it there's you know,

1335
01:15:43,360 --> 01:15:45,599
Speaker 1: I think there's different skill sets. But when I start

1336
01:15:45,640 --> 01:15:47,360
Speaker 1: to think about certain people who I think have the

1337
01:15:47,400 --> 01:15:53,439
Speaker 1: ability to because it would in order to work, in

1338
01:15:53,520 --> 01:15:55,040
Speaker 1: order to pair up with somebody on the other side

1339
01:15:55,040 --> 01:15:57,280
Speaker 1: of that, you got to leave your party. So who

1340
01:15:57,439 --> 01:16:00,840
Speaker 1: who could I picture being comfortable leaving their party under

1341
01:16:00,840 --> 01:16:05,400
Speaker 1: a circumstance like that. And you know, look, I could

1342
01:16:05,479 --> 01:16:08,080
Speaker 1: you know, I'll give you another odd pair that you

1343
01:16:08,080 --> 01:16:10,160
Speaker 1: would say, what are you talking about? But you know,

1344
01:16:11,080 --> 01:16:13,920
Speaker 1: I could see Ran Paul and a John Tester, you know,

1345
01:16:14,080 --> 01:16:18,160
Speaker 1: type of type of pairing when you're looking for bipartisan

1346
01:16:18,200 --> 01:16:21,200
Speaker 1: pairs that I think could work together again depending on

1347
01:16:21,479 --> 01:16:24,600
Speaker 1: you know, if they were depending on what problem you

1348
01:16:24,600 --> 01:16:27,479
Speaker 1: were trying to solve. But I you know, Mark Kelly

1349
01:16:27,520 --> 01:16:32,200
Speaker 1: is in that category, John Curtis, Lisa Rakowski, I'd probably

1350
01:16:32,320 --> 01:16:38,679
Speaker 1: put I'd have put a John Cornyn in that category.

1351
01:16:38,680 --> 01:16:40,760
Speaker 1: I had to put a Build Cassidy. We know Builcassidy

1352
01:16:40,800 --> 01:16:45,080
Speaker 1: actually showed some interest in the no labels. In the

1353
01:16:45,120 --> 01:16:47,559
Speaker 1: no label situation when no Labels was seeing if they

1354
01:16:47,560 --> 01:16:49,759
Speaker 1: could recruit a bipartisan ticket.

1355
01:16:49,840 --> 01:16:50,719
Speaker 2: You know, I think they.

1356
01:16:51,120 --> 01:16:53,679
Speaker 1: They were dreaming of a of a mansion Hogan ticket,

1357
01:16:53,760 --> 01:16:57,640
Speaker 1: Joe Manchin and Larry Hogan. So you know, look, I

1358
01:16:57,680 --> 01:17:00,360
Speaker 1: love these fantasy conversations, but I am am de size

1359
01:17:00,400 --> 01:17:01,160
Speaker 1: the word fantasy.

1360
01:17:01,680 --> 01:17:02,360
Speaker 2: A lot of times.

1361
01:17:02,360 --> 01:17:04,360
Speaker 1: It's very hard for these guys to leave their party.

1362
01:17:04,600 --> 01:17:07,200
Speaker 1: It's so hard for them to leave their party. They

1363
01:17:07,240 --> 01:17:09,479
Speaker 1: have a hard time doing it. And you have to

1364
01:17:09,560 --> 01:17:12,519
Speaker 1: leave your party to do something like this, you have

1365
01:17:12,560 --> 01:17:18,120
Speaker 1: to be done, and it's so you know, and for

1366
01:17:18,160 --> 01:17:22,280
Speaker 1: this to succeed, it requires both parties going to their extremes,

1367
01:17:22,880 --> 01:17:25,200
Speaker 1: and usually we don't have that right. When one party

1368
01:17:25,240 --> 01:17:28,599
Speaker 1: goes too far one way, usually the other party then

1369
01:17:28,680 --> 01:17:32,000
Speaker 1: tries to become the party for the center right, tries

1370
01:17:32,080 --> 01:17:34,640
Speaker 1: to absorb the center and so which is Frankly, I

1371
01:17:34,680 --> 01:17:36,519
Speaker 1: think it been a very effective way to create a

1372
01:17:36,600 --> 01:17:38,719
Speaker 1: check and balance in our country between the two parties.

1373
01:17:39,280 --> 01:17:42,479
Speaker 1: It's when it's in those weird moments when both parties

1374
01:17:42,479 --> 01:17:46,800
Speaker 1: split apart. Maybe we're oncoming to one of those moments,

1375
01:17:47,000 --> 01:17:49,960
Speaker 1: and if we do, then perhaps there is room for

1376
01:17:50,040 --> 01:17:55,280
Speaker 1: this yere. But I ultimately don't think we're going to

1377
01:17:55,320 --> 01:18:00,639
Speaker 1: be there, and obviously my dog Kelly, she is ready

1378
01:18:01,680 --> 01:18:05,599
Speaker 1: for this podcast to end. So with that, I will

1379
01:18:05,760 --> 01:18:06,800
Speaker 1: see you in twenty four hours