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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go spreading the corn.

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Speaker 1: Ten seconds remaining, we just go show me off to

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Speaker 1: the basket. Under the basket, it's the true for the wind.

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Speaker 2: God make a miracle. I'm up the water. Hit that

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Speaker 2: one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. I'm Mike

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Speaker 1: Caliberys and I'm joined today by Greg Waddell, are gambling

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Speaker 1: expert embedded deep in Big Ten country. This is the

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Speaker 1: beginning of our expanded college basketball coverage. With college football

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Speaker 1: season winding down, things are heating up on the hardwood

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Speaker 1: and we're gonna have you covered from episodes with the

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Speaker 1: Three Man Weave, episodes with myself Waddell Stucky, as well

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Speaker 1: as some content from our film guru, our America East

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Speaker 1: expert Tanner McGrath throughout the season, tossing some live shows

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Speaker 1: on Saturday. And we're gonna have a gambling text chain

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Speaker 1: for you that's going to allow you to be the

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Speaker 1: best gambling version of yourself all the way through the

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Speaker 1: Final Four this season. So we're excited to get into

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Speaker 1: it here. Greg, it is so good to see you.

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Speaker 1: As soon as I see you, I'm immediately transported to

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Speaker 1: sweating foul shots late in a game in the dead

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Speaker 1: of winter on a Tuesday night. That's what your face

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Speaker 1: means to me, which means a lot more college basketball

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Speaker 1: sweats and gambling action coming in the next few months.

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Speaker 1: How you doing, brother, I'm doing great. You know, college

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Speaker 1: football great sport. I know you love it, Mike. I'm

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Speaker 1: enjoying the expanded playoff. I think more football is a

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Speaker 1: good thing.

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Speaker 2: I am realizing today, though, how much I've missed conference

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Speaker 2: play college basketball, and I'm a little sad. You know,

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Speaker 2: normally we pivot to conference play and it's our moment.

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Speaker 2: It's not our moment. We've got like four more weeks

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Speaker 2: of college football right now. So I'm glad you at

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Speaker 2: least are are here with me to give some spotlight

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Speaker 2: to the sickos like me who are out here just

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Speaker 2: looking for unders in the American East Conference.

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Speaker 1: You know what's interesting Right off the bat, I want

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Speaker 1: to throw the out there and gauge or your take

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Speaker 1: on it. College football used to have the most meaningful

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Speaker 1: regular season in all of college sports, in all of

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Speaker 1: American sports, really, I mean outside of the epl across

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Speaker 1: the ponds. This was the appointment regular season in all

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Speaker 1: of sports.

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Speaker 2: But now with the.

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Speaker 1: College football playoff, you see it with Ohio State. Ohio

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Speaker 1: State basically, you know, peeded down their leg against Michigan.

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Speaker 1: In any other season for the last one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty five in college football, that would have been it

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Speaker 1: for them. But instead they're on an inside track to

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Speaker 1: be the second two loss champion since World War Two.

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Speaker 1: And then on top of it, you look at how

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Speaker 1: bad their loss was to that Michigan team. It was

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Speaker 1: it could be the worst loss for a future champion

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Speaker 1: by any program other than Ohio State in twenty fourteen

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Speaker 1: when they lost to a seven and six Virginia Tech team.

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Speaker 1: All of a sudden, the college football regular season's watered down.

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Speaker 1: And now looking over at college hoops and I'm starting

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Speaker 1: to see like the A ten race is going to

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Speaker 1: be interesting, the Big ten, the Big twelve, these are

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Speaker 1: really deep leagues. You've got mid major leagues, You've got

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Speaker 1: power conference leagues that are going to be really interesting

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Speaker 1: in the coming months. Which conference to you has your

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Speaker 1: chili run in the hottest coming into January, It's got

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Speaker 1: to be the SEC, I'll be honest with you, and

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Speaker 1: I know that's the lame answer.

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Speaker 2: That's the de facto best conference maybe that we've ever

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Speaker 2: seen since I've been alive in college basketball. It's ludicrous

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Speaker 2: what this league is doing right now. Everybody knew that

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Speaker 2: Alabama was gonna be good. They were kind of the

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Speaker 2: one bee I think on all of our radar coming

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Speaker 2: into this season, along with Kansas. But while it might

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Speaker 2: feel like they're a little worse than expected, it's only

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Speaker 2: because teams like Auburn and Tennessee and Florida have really

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Speaker 2: shocked people, or at least overachieved and hit their ceilings

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Speaker 2: very very quickly. Mark Pope's turn around at Kentucky has

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Speaker 2: been very fun to watch. There's just a lot of

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Speaker 2: really great basketball teams in that league. I'm with you, though,

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Speaker 2: much like college football. One lesson I think I'm trying

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Speaker 2: to take that might be a transfer portal era nil era.

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Speaker 2: Thing here is that parody is real and it's problem

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Speaker 2: probably going to have some staying power. I mean, the

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Speaker 2: metrics would tell you that Auburn could be a historically

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Speaker 2: great team. I'm interested in seeing what they do in

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Speaker 2: the gauntlet that is the SEC. But to your point

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Speaker 2: on what happened in the college football playoff. The teams that,

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Speaker 2: you know, if we had a four team playoff, would

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Speaker 2: have been playing for the national championship have already lost now,

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Speaker 2: and there's no way to knock like you can't tell

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Speaker 2: me Oregon going undefeated and beating Ohio State somehow didn't

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Speaker 2: deserve to be here. The reality is there is no

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Speaker 2: great team in college football this season, and I think

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Speaker 2: there's a good chance that when we get to March,

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Speaker 2: college basketball fans will be saying the same thing once

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Speaker 2: the brackets are finally clean.

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Speaker 1: So I have a few big ticket items I just

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Speaker 1: want to run by you see see your thoughts on them,

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Speaker 1: And I'm going to start with this, does defense kind

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Speaker 1: of matter again in college hoops? Because when I'm looking

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Speaker 1: through the advanced metrics sites, the Torviks, the Ken Palms,

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Speaker 1: the Evan MEAs of the world, you see a lot

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Speaker 1: of teams popping at the top of the defensive metrics

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Speaker 1: who are also deeply embedded in the a top ten.

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Speaker 1: You got Tennessee, Duke, Auburn, all protected one seeds. They've

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Speaker 1: all demonstrated an ability to absolutely clamp down on opponents,

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Speaker 1: particularly down the stretching games when they absolutely have to

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Speaker 1: get stops, but it also extends, you know, down the

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Speaker 1: seed line a program like Marquette. Shaka Smart has been

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Speaker 1: a coach that has really revitalized his career in Milwaukee.

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Speaker 1: It's been amazing to see what he's been able to do,

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Speaker 1: particularly in those underdog spots. But this may be the

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Speaker 1: best defense that he's had since coming up to Milwaukee.

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Speaker 1: And I just think when I look at what they're

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Speaker 1: playing at right now, it depends on the metric, but

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Speaker 1: just about top ten on the defensive end. That gives

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Speaker 1: them a real shot maybe from a three or four seed,

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Speaker 1: to make a deep run, potentially get to a Final

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Speaker 1: four this year. I also look at a program like Maryland.

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Speaker 1: The Terps have been so difficult to defend, you know,

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Speaker 1: in terms of not getting the shots, block, not being

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Speaker 1: sloppy with the basketball. But on the defensive end, they

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Speaker 1: are top ten. I think they're eighth in Ken Palm's

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Speaker 1: defensive metric. There so really elevated ceilings for some of

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Speaker 1: these teams, and it all starts on the defensive end.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of Marylyn, this is where I want to get

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Speaker 1: your take as our Big Ten resident expert. The Turps

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Speaker 1: had not made the second weekend of March Madness in

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Speaker 1: the past twenty one years. They excuse me, they've only

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Speaker 1: done it once in the past twenty one years. But

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Speaker 1: they have a potentially dominant team. I know that the

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Speaker 1: Big Ten is incredibly deep this year, but Jacobe Gillespie

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Speaker 1: was a home run in the portal coming in for

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Speaker 1: Belmont to run this offense. Derek Queen has flashed Big

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Speaker 1: Ten Player of the Year upside. You saw even in

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Speaker 1: that loss to Purdue. I think he had twenty six

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Speaker 1: to twelve in that game. He's not slowing down. I

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Speaker 1: know he was patting his stats early in the season

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Speaker 1: against ten Cans, but that game demonstrates to me his

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Speaker 1: ceiling as a go to player. This was a team

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Speaker 1: that was picked to finish tenth in the preseason in

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Speaker 1: the Big Ten, and they potentially could play their way

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Speaker 1: into a four or five seed if things keep going

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Speaker 1: in this direction. As I mentioned, top ten in defensive efficiency,

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Speaker 1: they never get their shots bocked on the offensive end

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Speaker 1: tenth and average possession length as well, so they kind

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Speaker 1: of are made for those tournament games that become a

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Speaker 1: lot of stoppages, a lot of half court basketball. I

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Speaker 1: know we're looking far ahead, but do you think a

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Speaker 1: recipe for long term success for Kevin Willard in College Park.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Maryland certainly has my attention this year.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if I think what they're doing this

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Speaker 2: season is particularly translatable to future years. I mean, I

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Speaker 2: think to your point, the tenth preseason, that's a lot

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Speaker 2: of Willard's skepticism from pundits, and look, I think he's

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Speaker 2: a good coach. I think he's a coach with a

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Speaker 2: lower ceiling on him, like he's always going to have

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Speaker 2: competitive basketball teams. But I do I like this Maryland team,

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Speaker 2: but it's mostly because I love Derek Queen to your point,

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Speaker 2: I mean, dare I say Mike a little Boogie Cousins

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Speaker 2: in Derrek Queen, Like he just sort of bounces around

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Speaker 2: like all these guard skills and you can't guard it

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Speaker 2: with all these plotting bigs, especially in conference play in

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Speaker 2: the Big Ten, I think he's gonna feast. But you know,

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Speaker 2: they they really did on paper not change that much.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Jamiir Young out Jacoby Gillespie in you can

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Speaker 2: argue if that's an up great or a downgrade whatever,

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Speaker 2: They're getting pretty much the same, maybe better shooting play

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Speaker 2: from that position. But the whole difference here is Derek

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Speaker 2: Queen is unbelievable, And that sort of is a nice

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Speaker 2: segue into one of my happiest things about college basketball

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Speaker 2: this season. This freshman class has been absurd. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I know it's been hyped up all summer. I think

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Speaker 2: NBA Draft people knew that this class was going to

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Speaker 2: be particularly good, But I feel like college basketball fans

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Speaker 2: never really know, you know, are just because you're a

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Speaker 2: good prospect, does that mean it's going to translate to

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Speaker 2: a winning player in college basketball or even someone that's

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Speaker 2: worth our attention before you end up going straight to

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Speaker 2: the podium on draft night. And every freshman in this

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Speaker 2: class is insane. I mean, the top ten guys have

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Speaker 2: lived up to the billing, but there are so many

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Speaker 2: players ranked from fifty to one hundred that have just

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Speaker 2: sort of exploded. Jace Richardson's one in my state at

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Speaker 2: Michigan State, where he's still treated like the fifth guard

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Speaker 2: on that team, but he's shooting like sixty three percent

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Speaker 2: from the floor fifty one percent three on the year,

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Speaker 2: and there's so many case studies like him. And along

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Speaker 2: with how good this freshman class is, it came with

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Speaker 2: all of these international based quote unquote freshmen, and I

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Speaker 2: think this is one of the first kind of segues

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Speaker 2: into where this sport is headed in this era. There's

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Speaker 2: a lot of programs looking to even the playing field

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Speaker 2: with programs that are spending millions and millions of dollars,

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Speaker 2: and if you do have some sort of footprint overseas,

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Speaker 2: you can basically just buy a proven, established veteran player.

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Speaker 2: Like there's a twenty three year old that just signed

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Speaker 2: with Green Bay and is gonna suit up for them

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Speaker 2: this week. I just saw that come across the timeline tonight.

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Speaker 2: So to name a few though, like Casparras Yakashonas at

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Speaker 2: Illinois absurd, He's a triple double threat every single night.

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Speaker 2: Jegor Demon started the season for BYU doing the same thing.

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Speaker 2: He's kind of quieted down with some injury issue. But

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Speaker 2: you've got Matt Locke at Duke and Tom Avisig also

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Speaker 2: at Illinois who are holding it down down low. I'm

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Speaker 2: just really impressed with what the international freshmen have done.

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Speaker 2: And if I was Mick Cronin, I'd be wondering where's

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Speaker 2: my receipt on this? Because last year I tried to

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Speaker 2: beat everyone to this game. All of my international freshmen stunk,

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Speaker 2: and this year, every single one across the country is amazing.

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Speaker 1: Quick question. I'm not expecting you to give me an

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Speaker 1: IRS forensic audit on BYU's deep pockets, but do you

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Speaker 1: think the Church of Latter Day Saints is going to

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Speaker 1: be able to elevate this program to being a perennial

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Speaker 1: top fifteen, top ten team because you look at the

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Speaker 1: players that they have this year, whether capable of they

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Speaker 1: certainly shocked the world to a certain degree getting the

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Speaker 1: number one recruit for the next cycle. Do you think

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Speaker 1: they are here to stay? And if so, do they

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Speaker 1: have the coaching in the basketball only infrastructure to really

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Speaker 1: take that leap from being a regional power to being

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Speaker 1: a national power.

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Speaker 2: I actually think they do. I'm full attention giving to

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Speaker 2: BYU right now. It's funny going back to the Mark

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Speaker 2: Pope discussions in the offseason. I think, you know, Kentucky

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Speaker 2: fans just wanted to change so much, but nationally there

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Speaker 2: were a lot of skeptics, and when Kevin Young started

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Speaker 2: entering into his pockets, I think people were like, well,

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Speaker 2: wait a second here, I thought nobody could recruit at BYU. No,

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Speaker 2: you can recruit at BYU. You can recruit anywhere if

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Speaker 2: you have the NBA relationships and the deep budgets that

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Speaker 2: Kevin Young is working with now. But no, he gets

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Speaker 2: to Banza. That's obviously an exciting thing to see a

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Speaker 2: player like that go to Provo or a place like Provo.

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Speaker 2: It's an unorthodox fit. But I've loved watching this BYU team.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Yegor Demon is kind of the story because

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Speaker 2: he's a six to nine point guard. But you know,

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Speaker 2: they still have a lot of really good college basketball players.

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Speaker 2: Kevin Young is going to get really good, prestigious freshmen.

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Speaker 2: That's what he wants to do, and it's not dependent

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Speaker 2: on just getting the top ranked guy, even though he

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Speaker 2: might do that with how much money they've got floating around.

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Speaker 2: But can and Ketch's a guy that played overtime a

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Speaker 2: lead also flip from Purdue to BYU this summer, and

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Speaker 2: he's a huge part of everything they do. I love

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Speaker 2: the way they run, They shoot a bunch of threes,

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Speaker 2: they play smart mathematical basketball, and they dominate the boards too.

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Speaker 2: Like for a team that is really young, they're they're

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Speaker 2: pretty physical inside with a kind of a deep bench

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Speaker 2: as well. They rotate guys in and out. So I'm

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Speaker 2: in on this BYU team, and I don't think you

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Speaker 2: can be out on the future if you like this

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Speaker 2: year's BYU team.

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Speaker 1: Before we get into some futures talk and some plays

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Speaker 1: for Friday, Saturday, and potentially Sunday as well, this wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be this show without some quick rants and reminder to

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Speaker 1: our audience. We're also gonna have Stuck coming in in

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Speaker 1: the next episode. He is just underwater with so much

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Speaker 1: college football NFL this time of the year. He is

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Speaker 1: just like Glumen for Punishment, doing so much for the

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Speaker 1: Action Network, including that Boll tracker. I got to tip

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Speaker 1: my cap to him once again. You can't bet on

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Speaker 1: bolseason without Stucky doing the omens work, figuring out who's in,

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Speaker 1: who's out, who's focusing on the Senior Bowl, who's a

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Speaker 1: last minute scratch. All that work that he does really

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Speaker 1: a twenty four hour a day job. We're gonna have

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Speaker 1: him back for the next episode. Between Waddell and myself,

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Speaker 1: but a quick rants, we like to just get things

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Speaker 1: off of our chest. We talked a lot about positivity,

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Speaker 1: what there is to like, and there's so much at

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Speaker 1: this point in the college basketball season.

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Speaker 2: I remember, this is a safe space. You know what

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Speaker 2: pisses me off most of all. Okay, you're ranting now, baby,

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Speaker 2: I'm ran why not? You gotta let it out somehow.

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Speaker 1: For usual, I'm pissed at ap pole voters. A twelve

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Speaker 1: and ozh start was not good enough for Drake to

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Speaker 1: make the top twenty five. I realized they just lost

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Speaker 1: their first game of the season, a four point loss

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Speaker 1: on the road at UIC, but wins over k State Vandy.

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Speaker 1: They drill the Miami Hurricanes open the season. Apparently that

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Speaker 1: wasn't good enough. And I mean, on top of there's

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Speaker 1: some teams that are just begging not to be ranked.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the Zags, what more do they have to

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Speaker 1: do in terms of, you know, underwhelming at least from

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Speaker 1: their perimeter shooting, losing games outright, you know, be losing

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Speaker 1: to UCLA. This was a time I think to finally

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Speaker 1: kick them out, kick gu outside of the top twenty five,

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Speaker 1: put in a program like Drake. But it's not just Drake,

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Speaker 1: all the the mid majors that are making this year.

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Speaker 1: It's just this is a cute pat on the head

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Speaker 1: time of year. Oh, we have to keep Baylor in

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Speaker 1: the top twenty five. Bullshit. You don't have to keep

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Speaker 1: Baylor in the top twenty five. I'm going to get

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Speaker 1: to them for one of my top picks this week

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Speaker 1: as a matter of fact. And then the other part

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Speaker 1: of it is there's some programs out there that I

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Speaker 1: just I think they deserve to have some dirt thrown

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Speaker 1: on them. I'm gonna say North Carolina preseason number two

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Speaker 1: in the ACC. I knew they were gonna have issues

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Speaker 1: in their front court, but they've just not been able

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Speaker 1: to put it together. And RJ. Davis has not played

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Speaker 1: Hero Bowl enough to keep the tar Heels on track.

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Speaker 1: And then Arizona early as well. Arizona, I know they

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Speaker 1: weren't picked quite as highly in the Big twelve, but

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Speaker 1: I'm a little bit surprised that they've fallen apart as

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Speaker 1: quickly as they have this season. What are some rants

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Speaker 1: that you want to get off your chest before we

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Speaker 1: get into some actionable plays.

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Speaker 2: First off, let me echo your point. Let's abolish the polls.

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Speaker 2: Calgarys out. I'm out on poll voters, I'm out on

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Speaker 2: poles themselves. I think there's no more pointless exercise in

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Speaker 2: college sports right now than releasing a weekly poll half

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Speaker 2: the time when games aren't even happening regularly. Like I

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Speaker 2: understand we're into this swing of the season now, but

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Speaker 2: like we didn't need a new poll after Christmas Week

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Speaker 2: where there were three games played and there was actual

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Speaker 2: shifting from certain voters, Like there were people that called

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Speaker 2: it out on Twitter. It's crazy that people don't take

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Speaker 2: that as seriously as they should. So I'm glad you've

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Speaker 2: shown a spotlight on that. I want to do a

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Speaker 2: very dangerous thing here. I want to complain about Dan

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Speaker 2: Hurley for just a moment, and then I'm gonna complain

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Speaker 2: about the other guy he coached against in the National Championship,

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Speaker 2: because I'm mad at both of them, and these have

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Speaker 2: been probably the two guys I've been most critical of

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Speaker 2: since the offseason. I hated both of Yukon and Produce

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Speaker 2: off seasons so much. Now, Dan Hurley, I get it,

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Speaker 2: you've won two straight championships. You can do whatever you want.

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Speaker 2: You're gonna get a statue in stores. I'm not denying that.

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Speaker 2: But I like when Yukon basketball is really good. I

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Speaker 2: like watching great versions of that team, and I think

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Speaker 2: the writing was very clearly on the wall with how

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Speaker 2: he approached the whole on this roster. When you lose

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Speaker 2: a bunch of guys to the NBA in the same offseason,

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Speaker 2: obviously you're not going to replace Donovan Klingen one for one.

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Speaker 2: Same thing with Steph Castle, same thing with everybody they lost.

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Speaker 2: But Tris Reid. I watched him at Michigan. He's not

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Speaker 2: a reliable big. He's inconsistent, and he's been stellar for Yukon.

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Speaker 2: But the problem is you should have gone out and

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Speaker 2: tried to get a star and had him as a backup.

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Speaker 2: I feel like Hurley in general was just floating this offseason.

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Speaker 2: He's at the Billy Joel concert, He's in La interviewing

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Speaker 2: for the Lakers. I think he really truly believed, Oh,

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Speaker 2: I'm so good at this, I can take anyone and

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Speaker 2: get this team back to number one. He complained that

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Speaker 2: everybody had him lower than one. I think Evan Mia

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Speaker 2: had him like eighth in the off season, and he

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Speaker 2: was going at Evan on Twitter. So look, here we are.

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Speaker 2: You got zero and three at Maui. They've righted the

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Speaker 2: ship a little bit since then, although it was a

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Speaker 2: stinky second and half against DePaul the other night, and

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Speaker 2: they probably will win the Big East. They might have

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Speaker 2: success in March. I don't know, but you can't watch

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Speaker 2: this Yukon team without seeing some very clear holes. And

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Speaker 2: it starts with the transfers Aiden Mahane. He's been a disaster.

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Speaker 2: He should have spent more time in the portal. He

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Speaker 2: should have taken this more seriously and not just stuck

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Speaker 2: middle fingers up at everybody who doubted him because the

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Speaker 2: doubts were real, and then quickly just to pile on.

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Speaker 2: Matt Paynter basically took everything that I just complained Dan

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Speaker 2: Hurley did, and did it times ten. Matt Painter is

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Speaker 2: going to Tom Izzo rout. I've affectionately called him Matt

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Speaker 2: Pizzo since the summer because he's doing the Izzo thing

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Speaker 2: where he doesn't think anyone should use the portal. It's

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Speaker 2: about integrity. Ah. He signed a sixth man freshman class

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Speaker 2: off the heels of finally getting Purdue over the hump

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Speaker 2: to the National Championship game. And guess what, You're not

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Speaker 2: gonna turn a three star into the National Player of

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Speaker 2: the Year every single year. I don't need to sign

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Speaker 2: six freshmen, four of whom are three stars or lower

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Speaker 2: in a landscape of college basketball where you can get

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Speaker 2: immediate talent. There are so many people out there that

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Speaker 2: would have ran through a wall to play the Lance

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Speaker 2: Jones role for Purdue after what happened to Lance Jones

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Speaker 2: and their run last season. Mason Gillis, he's a duke.

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Speaker 2: He's happy right now. They need veteran presences on the

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Speaker 2: defensive side of the ball so badly. Braden Smith, Fletcher, Lawyer, Tree,

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Speaker 2: Coffin Ron had been stellar. And it doesn't even matter

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Speaker 2: as we record this, Mike, I look up. They're down

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Speaker 2: one point to lowly Minnesota right now, and they changed

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Speaker 2: their starting lineup for the seventh time this season. Matt Painter,

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Speaker 2: shame on you. Let's fix this next offseason.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I like to also keep some negativity on

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Speaker 1: Hurley when he just like loses his mind, but in

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Speaker 1: a way that doesn't seem to inspire the team and

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Speaker 1: also kind of directs me back to last season. He

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Speaker 1: had that same fire, but I felt like a train

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Speaker 1: on the court, specifically through Cam Spencer, who would play hard,

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Speaker 1: who would be a nuisance. He saw it in the

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Speaker 1: NBA the other night. He's like ripping the ball away

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Speaker 1: from Devin Booker. He's got that dog in him. He

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Speaker 1: doesn't care. He didn't care, you know, playing doing the

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Speaker 1: dirty work and being the glue guy for Yukon and

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Speaker 1: at times being the star player who needed to put in,

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Speaker 1: you know, points in the bucket. I just view this

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Speaker 1: as a coach who needs to be humbled a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Maybe the early season. Maybe that offer in Maui is

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Speaker 1: what the doctor ordered. But you also look at some

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Speaker 1: of their underlying metrics, barely inside the top one hundred

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Speaker 1: on the defensive end. I think that's certainly gonna nip

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Speaker 1: them a program that usually has a January swoon to

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Speaker 1: begin with. We'll see if they're able to string together

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Speaker 1: a long winning streak in conference play with a defense

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Speaker 1: that you know, they potentially could lose in games in

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Speaker 1: the seventies and eighties to three or four teams out

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Speaker 1: of the biggiet So we'll see how that translates. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's get into some actionable plays. I promised it. Let's

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Speaker 1: tall futures. When Stuck comes back for the next episode,

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Speaker 1: we're going to do our futures roundtable where we vote

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Speaker 1: on what to en add to the official portfolio. But

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Speaker 1: this is a free role here, we're just going to

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Speaker 1: take both of them. I'm going to start, but the

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Speaker 1: guy who was a late scratch tonight did not make

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Speaker 1: me all that happy taking Rutgers plus five and a

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Speaker 1: half instead. I think it floated up to plus eight

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Speaker 1: once the news of Dylan Harper not being available for

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Speaker 1: the Scarlet Knights. I still think he's got value at

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Speaker 1: sixty to one to win the Wooden I know that

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Speaker 1: Jani Broom is the prohibitive favorite right now, but there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of basketball to be played. You saw him

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Speaker 1: already leave a game with an injury. He's going to

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Speaker 1: play in a very rugged sec, going to play a

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Speaker 1: lot of high profile games with teams focused on him.

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Speaker 1: So I think what that has done is it has

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Speaker 1: inflated the odds on some of these other contenders. And

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Speaker 1: let's talk obvious hurdles really quick. Sixty to one is

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Speaker 1: a long shot, and it's a long shot for a reason.

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Speaker 1: Combo guards, point guards. They haven't won this thing since

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Speaker 1: Jalen Brunson in twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 2: The winner has.

430
00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:50,000
Speaker 1: Also come from a March Madness one, two or three

431
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:53,600
Speaker 1: seed every single time in the past decade. Rutgers right now,

432
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:56,120
Speaker 1: if you look at bracket matrix, they're nowhere to be found.

433
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 1: They certainly have to play better team basketball, not just

434
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:01,960
Speaker 1: have these more victories. They need to start stacking victories.

435
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:04,640
Speaker 1: I would say they absolutely have to get what's called

436
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:06,840
Speaker 1: a top eight seed for him to have any chance

437
00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 1: to win this thing. But on the pros side of

438
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,080
Speaker 1: this argument, there's a lot to like. He's a consensus

439
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 1: top three draft pick in the NBA draft when you

440
00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 1: look at all the different sites, the aggregators. He's someone

441
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 1: who's moved his way all the way up to the

442
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:21,680
Speaker 1: rearview mirror of Cooper Flag. He'll challenge Phil Sellers, who

443
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:23,800
Speaker 1: played in the mid seventies for Rutgers, the last team

444
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,480
Speaker 1: to go undefeated, believe they lost in the Final four

445
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,640
Speaker 1: with an undefeated record, as the greatest Rutgers basketball player

446
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 1: of all time. That's the ceiling for Harper in my opinion,

447
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:35,399
Speaker 1: because of everything that he's done in the court. The

448
00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:39,199
Speaker 1: advanced stats community loves this guy. Evan Mea loves him.

449
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 1: He takes games over evidenced by eight game MVPs according

450
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,560
Speaker 1: to Ken Palm, which is tied for second most game

451
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 1: MVPs on the season, tied with players like Jenni Broom

452
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,080
Speaker 1: and Eric Dixon. So on top of everything else, there's

453
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 1: just the style factor you talked about this deep freshman class.

454
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 1: He is appointment television. When he goes off and he

455
00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 1: puts that whole team on his back, he can score

456
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,120
Speaker 1: the third five or forty points. That's a quick way

457
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 1: for two upset wins in one week, to go from

458
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 1: sixty to one to twenty to one. To really move

459
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 1: yourself into that conversation, I still think there's value on

460
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 1: him right now. I understand that there's pitfalls, but when

461
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:15,359
Speaker 1: you put them together portfolio, I'd like to have some

462
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 1: long shots in there. What do you think about Harper

463
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 1: as someone who could become an AP first team All American?

464
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,919
Speaker 2: Well, it's fantastic value. For sure. He is the second

465
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,320
Speaker 2: best player in college basketball, and that pisces a lot

466
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:30,439
Speaker 2: of people off when you say it out loud. But

467
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,399
Speaker 2: I think he's been better than Cooper flag this, at

468
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 2: least offensively. Right. We know Coop sensational on both ends,

469
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 2: but Dylan Harper is as polished of a freshman guard

470
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:44,399
Speaker 2: as I have seen in a decade. And I know

471
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,360
Speaker 2: they got a little bit of noise in the NTE

472
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 2: Thanksgiving week. I forget what the players era right, every

473
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 2: game's coming out of the wire. He's had a buzzer

474
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 2: beater already this season. He's one of the clutchest players

475
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,000
Speaker 2: in the country and that showed through in his high

476
00:22:58,040 --> 00:22:59,680
Speaker 2: school tape as well. He had a bunch of game

477
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:03,880
Speaker 2: winners on the prep scene. But I think my issue

478
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 2: with it, it's worth a bet right now. And honestly,

479
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 2: you talked about odd timing. Maybe he misses a game,

480
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,160
Speaker 2: maybe he's immediately back. I heard this is just an

481
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:15,679
Speaker 2: illness in Bloomington. Umar Ballo a couple of days agohead

482
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 2: an illness in Bloomington. That's interesting too. But I do

483
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 2: think if he misses a game, maybe this gets used

484
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,160
Speaker 2: up a little more. He really just needs to get

485
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 2: this team to the tournament, and they're definitely on the

486
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:32,240
Speaker 2: outside looking in. But if we see a miraculous February here,

487
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 2: it's not out of the question. And I think you

488
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 2: could argue getting Rutgers to the NCAA tournament is as

489
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 2: big as an accomplishment as anything that you and I

490
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:42,399
Speaker 2: Brum or Cooper Flag could do this season.

491
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 1: All right, what is your future you're bringing to the

492
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 1: table here?

493
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 2: All right, So I'm gonna go back to the SEC.

494
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 2: I mentioned it. It's where my heart has been, my

495
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,880
Speaker 2: eyes had been this season, just because the basketball has

496
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:55,199
Speaker 2: been so incredible, And I'm gonna go back to the

497
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 2: team that we all loved in the off season, and

498
00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 2: I'm gonna buy some Alabama stock. They are five to

499
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:04,920
Speaker 2: one to win the SEC right now. That reflects where

500
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 2: all of the analytics sites have them fourth in this league,

501
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 2: behind Auburn, behind Tennessee, behind Florida, but ninth nationally. I mean,

502
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 2: there are just a few spots behind all those teams.

503
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:19,679
Speaker 2: Auburn's really the only team that's created any separation. But

504
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 2: when you look at Alabama, what has gone wrong? I

505
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 2: mentioned it briefly. I don't know that it is anything

506
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:28,359
Speaker 2: going wrong as much as some of these other teams

507
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 2: peaking very very early in their non conference schedules. I mean,

508
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 2: credit to Florida and what they've done. They're not gonna

509
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:38,359
Speaker 2: go undefeated forever. I think it's a good time to

510
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 2: sell high on the Gators. Auburn is definitely for real.

511
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 2: I like Tennessee as well, but by the end of

512
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 2: last season, we all would have taken Alabama over Tennessee,

513
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,159
Speaker 2: I think, or at least it was close. And right now,

514
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:52,919
Speaker 2: I think this is a really good BILO opportunity. Let

515
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 2: me give you a calendar based schedule note here. Now

516
00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 2: is the time to jump on Alabama if you are

517
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 2: looking to do it, because the gauntlet that everyone has

518
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,879
Speaker 2: to play, all these top four teams in the SEC

519
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,199
Speaker 2: are gonna have to get through each other multiple times.

520
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:14,959
Speaker 2: Alabama's games are backloaded against those four teams. They played

521
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 2: just one game against Florida, Auburn, or Tennessee until March.

522
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 2: That's it. Every other team in that group that I

523
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 2: just mentioned plays three until March. You're basically getting two less,

524
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:33,439
Speaker 2: really really tough games. And if you get to March

525
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 2: and Alabama is tied or one game up, you're gonna

526
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 2: have some hedge opportunities. You'll know who's fallen out of

527
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,160
Speaker 2: the race. I think it's a good time to jump

528
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 2: on Alabama, and honestly, gone to my head, this is

529
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 2: still the team that I truly think wins the SEC.

530
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 2: I love what Auburn's done, but they play such a

531
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 2: psychotic brand of basketball. There's gonna be some highs and

532
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:58,159
Speaker 2: some lows with that team. Alabama's shot formula is what

533
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 2: it always has been. They have better bigs than they've

534
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 2: had the last couple of years. They still have Mark Siers,

535
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 2: who's starting to make shots. I'm buying this team five

536
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 2: to one to win the SEC.

537
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 1: I am so close to buying at this exact moment.

538
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 1: But I'm glad that you brought up the schedule because

539
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,639
Speaker 1: I think there's a hidden loss coming up in the

540
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,879
Speaker 1: next five and hopefully it's early in this five game stretch.

541
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 1: So this if this number can get closer to seven,

542
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 1: probably plus six fifty on pulling the trigger. They get

543
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 1: Oklahoma on Saturday. But the game that I kind of

544
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:31,679
Speaker 1: circled at South Carolina on January eighth, I feel like

545
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 1: that could be a landmine game for them if they

546
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 1: shoot thirty percent from three in that game instead of

547
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 1: forty percent. All of a sudden, South Carolina hangs around

548
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 1: a little bit. They have some bouncy, athletic guys in

549
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:43,880
Speaker 1: their front court. If they were to lose a game

550
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 1: like that, I think a little bit of market panic

551
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 1: could hit. And then if that number, as I said,

552
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 1: slides closer to seven to one, I'm with you because

553
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:54,920
Speaker 1: that psychotic brands a basketball when it's working. We saw

554
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 1: it in the runs of the Final Four. I mean,

555
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,200
Speaker 1: they can beat anybody. I'm not I don't think there's

556
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 1: a different path to envision for them beating Auburn in

557
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 1: a head to head that you know, beating Tennessee. These

558
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:08,359
Speaker 1: are teams that can fall if Bama plays, you know,

559
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 1: the way they want to play their basketball. So I'm

560
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 1: with you on this. I just the numbers not quite

561
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 1: there for me, but we're close, so I like that.

562
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 1: I'm glad that we can add both of these at

563
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:20,119
Speaker 1: this point in the podcast. And Suck's just gonna have

564
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 1: to live with it. He can talk through it when

565
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 1: he comes to the next episode. All right, let's hop

566
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 1: into some actionable stuff for the weekends. I'm gonna get

567
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 1: it started on Friday, gonna go deep in the low

568
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:34,200
Speaker 1: major basketball card. Let's talk Mary mac laying nine and

569
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 1: a half against Fairfield. The Warriors have the best playmaking

570
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 1: guard and point guard in the Mac. You can make

571
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,159
Speaker 1: an argument that he's the best point guard in all

572
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 1: of low major basketball. He's so smooth with it. He's

573
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 1: got incredible mid range game, which is so rare in

574
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 1: modern basketball. He's lethal in that fifteen foot pull up game.

575
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,440
Speaker 1: He takes everybody off the dribble. The pride of West

576
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 1: Catholic in Philly grew up about a mile and a

577
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,640
Speaker 1: half from where I grew up. Talking about Bud Clark here,

578
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 1: he's five ten. Let's be honest, he's probably five eight.

579
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:03,360
Speaker 1: If he was three inches taller, he'd be playing at

580
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 1: Nova or Saint John's or some power program in the Northeast.

581
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:10,120
Speaker 1: But instead the Warriors get him. And Evan Mier rates

582
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 1: him in terms of a playmaker as an A plus playmaker,

583
00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 1: and that tracks with his stats twenty five and four

584
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 1: and thirty five percent shooting from three. He's absolutely nails

585
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,439
Speaker 1: from the line. He knows how to draw contact. He

586
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 1: gave Stanford thirty two points and six assists. So this

587
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 1: is somebody who can elevate his play when they play

588
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 1: against top teams. Now both teams are five and eight,

589
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 1: And this is why it's a good opportunity to lay

590
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 1: the number with Mary mack here. Because they lost paycheck

591
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 1: games Saint Mary's Stanford Rutgers. They hung with all three

592
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 1: they lost by five, six, and eleven, respectively. They covered

593
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 1: all three games easily. They also tested themselves in the

594
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 1: non conference against mid major competition like VCU and Princeton.

595
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 1: Marymack's strength to schedule sixtieth fairfields two hundred and seventy seventh.

596
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 1: So I think this is a game. You have absolutely

597
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 1: pulled the trigger on any number south of eleven. I'm

598
00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 1: going to go ahead and fade a Stags offense that's

599
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 1: buried in the three hundred nearly every shooting metric and

600
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 1: leaves more shooters wide open than basically any team in

601
00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 1: the entire country. I think Bud Clark is going to

602
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 1: eat in this game. If there was a player prop market,

603
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 1: there's not going to be. I would go over on

604
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 1: everything up to thirty points for him. I think he's

605
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 1: going to cook in this one, and I think he's

606
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 1: got the insight track to be the Mac player of

607
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 1: the year. So I'm gonna go ahead and take a

608
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 1: good number. Anything below eleven.

609
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 2: Calbary's We're sell back. By the way, the first pick

610
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 2: of the year Merrimac minus nine and a half. I

611
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 2: love it, my friend.

612
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:31,959
Speaker 1: All right, what do you got hit me with your

613
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 1: first pick?

614
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 2: All right, I'm gonna turn our attention to the big

615
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 2: twelve here. I've got a Saturday game for us and

616
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 2: I'm looking at Houston against BYU. Now it's a home

617
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 2: game for Houston. That's obviously a dangerous spot BYU. We

618
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 2: talked about them earlier in the show. I am a

619
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 2: believer of this team, and more importantly, I think this

620
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 2: is a good time to jump back in on BYU because,

621
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 2: as I've alluded to, Jegor Demon has been in and

622
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 2: out of the line now. When healthy at the beginning

623
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 2: of the season, he was absolutely sensational his debut. He

624
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 2: had eighteen points, eleven assists, four rebounds. He truly is.

625
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know who to even compare him to.

626
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 2: He's a six to ten point guard. He's dunking on people,

627
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 2: hitting step back threes. He can do it all. And

628
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 2: all these other shooters play so well off of him

629
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 2: that when he's full go, it really unlocks them and

630
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 2: makes them impossible to guard. Now, Houston's physical. We know

631
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 2: what the Houston defense is. It's number one on kempound

632
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 2: like it always is. But this has not been the

633
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 2: same Houston team that they've been for the last four seasons.

634
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 2: And I think everyone's afraid to say that out loud,

635
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 2: but there through the first two months of the year,

636
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 2: they don't have a win over a top seventy five

637
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 2: opponent on ken pomp. Now, they haven't had a bunch

638
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 2: of opportunities, but it hasn't been pretty. When they have.

639
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 2: They've gotten into, you know, games where they could pull

640
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 2: away in the second half and that offense just goes cold.

641
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 2: You know, the defense won't go away, But I don't

642
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 2: trust the team that's centered around l J. Cryer to

643
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 2: close games and create separation. Ken Pom has this as

644
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 2: an eleven point spread. I would guess that we're gonna

645
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 2: get close to double digits here, if not more. If

646
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 2: it's at ten or higher, I'm all over BYU. I

647
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 2: think this will be a competitive game. They are an

648
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 2: elite rebounding team. They're the number one team in the

649
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 2: country at preventing second chances. That's not what Houston wants

650
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 2: to see in their first game in conference play. I'll

651
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 2: take the points with BYU.

652
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 1: Let's stick on Saturday and also stick in the Big twelve.

653
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with coach Ots laying eight and a half.

654
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 1: I'd probably lay this up to nine and a half.

655
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 1: With Iowa State at home against Baylor, let's think go

656
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,959
Speaker 1: get Baylor's rap sheet recently since December. Excuse me. November

657
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 1: twenty second, they get dog walk by Tennessee, lose by fifteen.

658
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 1: They get closed out by Yukon late after I think

659
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 1: they were tied with five minutes to go. They lose

660
00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 1: that by two possessions. Then they're stacking wins against New

661
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 1: Orleans Christian, Norfolk State, something called Arlington Baptist, and then

662
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 1: a win against Utah. I just said that I want

663
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 1: to be pissed off, and I am pissed off at

664
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,360
Speaker 1: the EP voters for putting them in the top twenty five.

665
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 1: Color me unimpressed with what they've done really in the

666
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 1: last six weeks. Meanwhile, Iowa State. This is a team

667
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 1: I've been critical of because they clearly had the defense

668
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 1: in the past few seasons to make a deep run,

669
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 1: you know, possibly get to a Final four, but the

670
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 1: offense wasn't there. You Know, it's been the running joke

671
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 1: that I've been too hard on Lipsey. Well, this defense

672
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 1: has been at a national title level again this year.

673
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 1: But when they get into those key moments, they're avoiding

674
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:39,840
Speaker 1: those deep freezes offensively, and really, I think there's just

675
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 1: not enough national attention on how much better they've been

676
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 1: offensively this season. When you look at what they have

677
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 1: from a firepower perspective, I think they finally are going

678
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 1: to get over the hump, and it's not just going

679
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 1: to be in March. I think it's going to be

680
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 1: going on the warpath in the Big twelve. There are

681
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 1: eleventh and shooting percentage in the entire country. Their only

682
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 1: loss was a fifteen round battle with Auburn and Maui

683
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 1: and really good teams by double digits, like Marquette by

684
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 1: eleven at home. They go to Colorado, that's a hard

685
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:07,480
Speaker 1: place to win by double digits. They do it. They

686
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 1: cover a number against the Buffs there, their second win

687
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 1: against Colorado on the season. And then when you get

688
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 1: into their rotation and what they bring to the table,

689
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 1: they go six deep with their rotation of players all

690
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 1: averaging in double figures. Gilbert as they're starting shooting guard

691
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 1: and Jones off the bench as a tandem. You know,

692
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 1: sometimes they're on the floor together most of the time.

693
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 1: You know Jones is coming in to give him a breather.

694
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:30,160
Speaker 1: They're averaging thirty three points per game, and they're playing

695
00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 1: great team basketball without relying on the three point shot

696
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 1: and this point is why I think Baylor could get

697
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 1: boat raced in this game, because when you look at

698
00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:41,719
Speaker 1: Baylor's defense, their bugaboo the whole year has been defending

699
00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 1: the three point line, rotating, making sure they're not leaving

700
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 1: shooters open. If Iowa State makes eight or nine threes

701
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 1: in this game, with how efficient they've been inside of

702
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:52,680
Speaker 1: the arc and how well they've shared the basketball and

703
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 1: doing a phenomenal job not turning it over, I am

704
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 1: not afraid laying a single digit number in this one. Finally,

705
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 1: Iowa State tied for third nationally and turnover margin. This

706
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 1: is still a Baylor team that I have questions about

707
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 1: how everything's gelling together. Who is the alpha in their

708
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 1: offensive sets. I think that is going to be tested

709
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 1: against an Iowa State team that plays ferocious defense on

710
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:17,239
Speaker 1: ball defense at home. So I'm gonna go ahead and

711
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:18,799
Speaker 1: lay this all the way up to nine and a half.

712
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:20,719
Speaker 1: I know it seems like a big number when it's

713
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:23,400
Speaker 1: a ranked on ranked matchup, but I think Baylor is

714
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:25,399
Speaker 1: fools gold and I think Iowa State is a true

715
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 1: national contender.

716
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:29,280
Speaker 2: There's a lot of fools that will be fooled because

717
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 2: they're bagging people to take Baylor up at nine and

718
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 2: a half, and I think you're on the right side

719
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:37,000
Speaker 2: of this. Calbreys. All right, I'll give one more for

720
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 2: the weekend. I've got my eyes on Lincoln, Nebraska. You

721
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 2: see the corn Huskers quarters hip if you're watching this

722
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 2: Pinnacle Bank Arena. Nobody walks into Pinnacle Bank Arena at

723
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 2: two pm Eastern on a Saturday in January and comes

724
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 2: away on scathe. This is one of my favorite matchup

725
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:58,800
Speaker 2: based bets, one of my favorite spot bets of the season.

726
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:01,319
Speaker 2: I know I'm saying that early conference play, but I

727
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 2: absolutely adore this. UCLA's for a into Big Ten play.

728
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 2: Their first trip east comes to Lincoln this weekend. They're

729
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 2: going to Michigan, or excuse me, they're back West coast.

730
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:15,720
Speaker 2: They've got Michigan Tuesday. But this is back and forth.

731
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 2: This is the first big back and forth that they

732
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:23,319
Speaker 2: have this year. This UCLA team is very good, as

733
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:26,400
Speaker 2: evidenced by their win over Gonzaga, as evidence by going

734
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 2: into Oregon and getting a win there, as evidence by

735
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:32,240
Speaker 2: a close win over Arizona. All three of those games

736
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 2: came down to the final possession. They were a one

737
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:38,480
Speaker 2: score basketball game. It's an elite defense, and it's an

738
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:41,279
Speaker 2: offense that, quite frankly doesn't know what it wants to

739
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 2: do other than get the ball to Tyler Billadeh and

740
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 2: let him cook. That's a horrible recipe against Nebraska. This

741
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:53,080
Speaker 2: Fred Hoiberg defense is unorthodox. They take away shots at

742
00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:56,799
Speaker 2: the rim. They will literally just eliminate post scorers from

743
00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:00,280
Speaker 2: an entire game. My favorite performance from anyone in college

744
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:04,360
Speaker 2: basketball this season was not any players offense. It was

745
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:09,280
Speaker 2: when Nebraska had held Ryan Kulkbrenner to zero shot attempts

746
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:14,280
Speaker 2: inside the arc. It's just dastardly what they do. If

747
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 2: UCLA is going to try and do what they normally

748
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 2: do in this game, they will get destroyed. Because Nebraska

749
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:23,440
Speaker 2: begs you two shoot threes. They are three hundred and

750
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 2: fifty sixth in the country at preventing three point attempts.

751
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:30,919
Speaker 2: UCLA won't shoot them. That's not what they want to do.

752
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:32,799
Speaker 2: They want to get to the rim. I think they're

753
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 2: going to be very stubborn, as Mick Cronin teams tend

754
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 2: to be here. I think they're going to try and

755
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 2: force feed bill Adeo. And I think just the fact

756
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 2: that this is a welcome to big ten play come

757
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 2: East against a Nebraska team that is always tougher than

758
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 2: they look at the surface. At home. They haven't lost

759
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 2: a game at home this season. They smoked Indiana at

760
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 2: home earlier this season. I like the corn Huskers here.

761
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:57,879
Speaker 2: I don't know what this will be. Ken Palm has

762
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 2: Nebraska by one as a favor. My guess would be

763
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:05,239
Speaker 2: it may get up to Nebraska minus two, minus three,

764
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 2: even I'll lay it up to minus five. I think

765
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:10,080
Speaker 2: this team wins by double digits.

766
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 1: It's like we've been running the two man weave for

767
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 1: the entire season here, because I started with the defensive

768
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 1: teams making some noise this year in college basketball, and

769
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 1: we end with your play on the Cornhuskers, who were

770
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 1: up to I believe tenth or eleventh and Ken Palm's

771
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 1: defensive metric, and I just love the inside the x's

772
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:29,359
Speaker 1: and o's game where they're gonna challenge UCLA to beat

773
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:31,439
Speaker 1: them from the perimeter. If they do, great, they don't

774
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 1: want to do it. That's not the brand of basketball

775
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 1: they want to play. So I love what you're laying

776
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 1: down there.

777
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:35,839
Speaker 2: Greg.

778
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 1: All right, that's it for us here on the Big

779
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 1: Bets on Campus podcast. As I mentioned. Next time you

780
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 1: see our lovely faces, Stuck will be driving the ship

781
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:46,400
Speaker 1: and we will be facilitating for them. Can't wait to

782
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 1: get into Futures round table talks about you know, really

783
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:53,279
Speaker 1: about everything that's burning on the positive and negative side

784
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 1: of college hoops. We also have the Three Man Weave

785
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,960
Speaker 1: on a weekly basis. Tanner McGrath is going to contribute

786
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 1: this season as well, and then very soon we'll have

787
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 1: those live Saturday shows back up and running and we'll

788
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:07,319
Speaker 1: get into full Saturday cards once full season comes Down'm

789
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 1: just a little bit. We're so close, but at this

790
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 1: point just so happy to be back talking college hoops.

791
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:15,520
Speaker 1: I appreciate everyone for listening in. Or reminder, if you

792
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 1: hit us up with those five star reviews, I'm going

793
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:20,279
Speaker 1: to start giving out some ten dollars flyers on our futures.

794
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 1: So go ahead, hit us with a five star review,

795
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 1: say whatever you want, and then I will go ahead

796
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 1: and pick one out. I'll DM you on social media

797
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 1: and we'll start to maybe get some group wins here.

798
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 1: I think that's what we need for the pod. We

799
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:33,719
Speaker 1: did a little of that on the Google five Deep

800
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,359
Speaker 1: Dive this season as well, so we're excited to bring

801
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,720
Speaker 1: it here to the college hoops lovers in your life.

802
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 1: All Right, that's it for us, Thanks again for listening,

803
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:42,759
Speaker 1: and we'll catch you next time.

804
00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:59,920
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

805
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:03,240
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

806
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred

807
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:06,960
Speaker 1: gambler