1 00:00:01,240 --> 00:00:18,200 Speaker 1: The volume here with my main man, Stucky, we got, 2 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:21,120 Speaker 1: you know, a couple of bad beats last week. I 3 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:25,119 Speaker 1: was heavy on Yeah, I was. I was heavy on 4 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:28,640 Speaker 1: the Ravens and you had the Browns and that thing 5 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 1: flipped on your last minute Buffalo Tampa. I also love 6 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 1: that bet looked ugly. Then they came storming back. And 7 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:38,879 Speaker 1: then the classic where you have over a field goal 8 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 1: in overtime. You just need a field goal to win it, 9 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:46,559 Speaker 1: and they fucking scored time and the third time that's 10 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 1: happened to me this year. If that I mean that 11 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 1: the Cowboys game was brutal. I guess the Patriots, but yeah, 12 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:56,600 Speaker 1: I both both the Bravens and the Bills. Excuse me, 13 00:00:56,640 --> 00:01:00,639 Speaker 1: both the the Ravens and the Bills were down, and 14 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 1: the Ravens come all the way back at a million 15 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 1: fourth downs and the Browns shanko field go. The worst 16 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: part is I was at that game. I'm a Ravens fan. 17 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 1: We joked all weekend. The only thing that can't happen 18 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:12,760 Speaker 1: is the Ravens lose by one or two. I had 19 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:14,679 Speaker 1: a huge bet on the Browns minus two and a half, 20 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:17,680 Speaker 1: and so I had to walk out of that stadium 21 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 1: like by Ravens lost, and I just took the horrific beat. 22 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 1: And then I go back to my friend's house and 23 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 1: we watched the Bills game with a huge bet on 24 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:26,760 Speaker 1: the Bills. They come all theay back. They end up 25 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 1: getting the fourth down down three, then kicked the field goal. 26 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: Don't get that call clear p I in the end zone. 27 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,320 Speaker 1: And then once they didn't score, I was like, somehow 28 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:38,039 Speaker 1: the box going to score. So it was absolutely brutal. 29 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 1: It was just that There's been a lot of bad beats, 30 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 1: but the time errands, you have a couple of bets 31 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 1: of a Sunday. But that was one of the most 32 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 1: miserable Sundays my life because I was there. They were 33 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 1: the Ravens were down eighteen, and I said to my 34 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 1: friend once Tucker made a fifty five year odor for 35 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 1: Baker Pick, and I said, the Ravens are gonna lose 36 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 1: by two. Watch because if they scored touchdow, they're gonna 37 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 1: go for two because that's what hardball does. And they're 38 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 1: gonna be down nine if they don't get it, and 39 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:04,880 Speaker 1: then they'll score a meeting a touch shock because the 40 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 1: Brown to be playing pre that at the end. And 41 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 1: my friends like shut up. Brown's chank a field goal 42 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 1: which would have locked it up off the post and 43 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 1: then Raven score. Don't get the two Raven score at 44 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 1: the end with all with their backup quarterback. Um. So yeah, 45 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 1: it was a Sunday they forget one of the one 46 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,400 Speaker 1: of the worst ones I've had in over fifteen years. Okay, 47 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,080 Speaker 1: let's let's dive into the NFL. And obviously they're getting 48 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 1: from set their game Saturday. But there was a pretty 49 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:30,680 Speaker 1: big moment that happened. It felt like, you know, are 50 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:34,240 Speaker 1: you in East Coast time? Are you Central time? So yeah, 51 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,240 Speaker 1: about about a little twelve thirty one o'clock in the morning, 52 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 1: ones and night, Urban Meyer fired. They are somehow favored 53 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 1: against the Texans, which feels a little off to me. 54 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 1: But that line went from three and a half you 55 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:49,720 Speaker 1: can find this unfandled promo code column. Uh now it's 56 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:53,080 Speaker 1: five and a half or five, depending on where you're looking. 57 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,919 Speaker 1: What do you think about that? Yeah, I mean it's 58 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 1: basically implying the iban Myers worth negative two points to 59 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 1: the spread. I don't think I've ever seen anything like 60 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: that before where a coach gets fired and then the 61 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 1: spread goes the other way. Two points. Obviously, it seemed 62 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:10,959 Speaker 1: like there was some friction and tension in the locker room, 63 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:14,920 Speaker 1: so maybe you know, him getting out of there loosens 64 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:17,959 Speaker 1: everyone up. The other thing is that urban Meyer's offense. 65 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 1: I mean, it's a very basic offense and it always 66 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 1: has been. And yeah, he's always been known for his 67 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 1: elite recruiting and that's what he was so good at 68 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:32,800 Speaker 1: in college, and his basic offense in college thrive because 69 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:36,280 Speaker 1: they had so much more talent than everybody else, right, 70 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 1: And that's the talent gap in college. You know, you 71 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 1: have the same four or five teams in the coge 72 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 1: Fool Playoff every year. It's talking in the NFL that 73 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 1: talent gap. There's lots more coach matters, a lot more 74 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 1: and now you're trying to deal with a rookie quarterback 75 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 1: and then uh, not optimal talent from an NFL perspective. 76 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 1: So getting some new play calls in there, um, getting 77 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:59,120 Speaker 1: some new looks on that offense that you know, some 78 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 1: uncertainty might work in their favorite But this line is crazy. 79 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 1: Now the I'm curious to see how Trevor Lawrence looks 80 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 1: now because he showed some flashes like a game or two. 81 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: But he's been regressing hard. I mean he has not 82 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 1: improved late in the season. I mean last week he 83 00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 1: looked awful, couldn't give bird of the bought four picks, 84 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:21,440 Speaker 1: just looked indecisive. Um, and I think had his worst 85 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:23,119 Speaker 1: game of the season last week. So I'll be curious 86 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:27,040 Speaker 1: to see if he looks a little better, Um, if 87 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 1: they get him running more, if they give him different looks. 88 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 1: But this is definitely a crazy reaction to a coach 89 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:35,599 Speaker 1: being fired. I thought, maybe the market goes to three 90 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 1: and they say, all right, what are the Jags went 91 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 1: to five and a half, implying the Urban Myers Worth 92 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 1: negative two points to you like the Texans there because 93 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 1: I kind of do five points. I mean they play hard. Yeah, 94 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 1: I mean if I had to take a side right now, 95 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:50,800 Speaker 1: you'd have to take the five and a half. Um, 96 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 1: it's a game I'm uh hopefully don't have money on 97 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 1: on Sunday. But yeah, this seems like uh an overreaction 98 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,919 Speaker 1: in in uh a market where there's a ton of 99 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 1: line moves this week because every sport right now seems 100 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:08,480 Speaker 1: to be it's just wait and see who's gonna be 101 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:11,480 Speaker 1: playing who's not and it's pretty wild right now out there. 102 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 1: It's a wild wild West. Well, the game of the weekend, 103 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:18,839 Speaker 1: at least on paper is Patriots at the Colts. And 104 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 1: I was actually looking at whence his stats. I've watched 105 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:24,840 Speaker 1: him play. I don't I don't think he's been quite 106 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:26,680 Speaker 1: as good as his stats. But I mean, twenty two 107 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 1: and five is no joke, right. He has not turned 108 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 1: the ball over. And I know he got crushed for 109 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 1: the one turnover against Tennessee in his own end zone, 110 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 1: but they were down. He had he had no choice, 111 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 1: like he was gonna get safety there, like he had 112 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:43,839 Speaker 1: to do something. So, you know, I kind of like 113 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,600 Speaker 1: the Colts in this spot minus two, minus two and 114 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:49,719 Speaker 1: a half. You know, the Patriots, it just feels like 115 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 1: they're just bound to lose a game, right That's that's 116 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 1: kind of my logic on this, as simple as that sounds. Yeah, 117 00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:59,719 Speaker 1: I agree, I think under three the culture play here. 118 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:01,559 Speaker 1: I think of right now, the Patriots are the most 119 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:05,040 Speaker 1: overrated team in the NFL. They've been tremendous. They're now 120 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:07,320 Speaker 1: a legit contender in the if C, which I didn't 121 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 1: think they would be. I wasn't sure. I mean, you 122 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 1: had to find out how Mac Jones turned out, and 123 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 1: it turns out that he's competent back there. Obviously they're 124 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 1: very well coached, but I think a lot of their 125 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,800 Speaker 1: but they've won seventh straight, they've covered seventh straight. A 126 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 1: lot of their metrics, especially defensively, I think, are extremely 127 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:27,720 Speaker 1: inflated by the competition that they've played. And it's not 128 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:29,920 Speaker 1: you can adjust for opponent, and you can go out 129 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:32,840 Speaker 1: there and you can look an opponent adjusted stats, but 130 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 1: that doesn't capture the whole story. Right, they played the 131 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 1: Browns with I mean Mayfield couldn't even move his arm, 132 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:41,680 Speaker 1: Hunt and Shove were out. Right. Then next week they 133 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 1: play or yeah, they play Atlanta, doesn't have Rittley on 134 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:46,159 Speaker 1: a short week. Then they play the Titans. Right, the 135 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:49,159 Speaker 1: Titans are gonna be considered a good team. But Julio 136 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:51,719 Speaker 1: Jones was out, A J. Brown was out, Derrick Henry 137 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 1: was out. Their entire offense was out for the Titans. 138 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:57,480 Speaker 1: Just that just an inept unit. Then they played Buffalo 139 00:06:57,480 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: in a hurricane, right, so you can't really get that 140 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:03,240 Speaker 1: Buffalo offense going and the Buffalo bad play calling. So 141 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:05,839 Speaker 1: you look outside of that, they're only good win. I mean, 142 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 1: they beat the Jets twice. They beat the Texans by 143 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 1: three on the road, and then you know they beat 144 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 1: Sam Donald who sees ghosts against Belichick and the early 145 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 1: other good wins at the Chargers they want by three. 146 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:20,240 Speaker 1: That's that's basically the one really impressive win without injuries 147 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 1: or weather impacting it. Cults playing extremely well, and they've 148 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: been kind of on the other end of some of 149 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 1: these was their record could be a lot better. I 150 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 1: think these two teams, I think, actually think the Cults 151 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 1: right now are just a slightly better version of the page. 152 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 1: It's very similar to me great they want to run 153 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:37,560 Speaker 1: the ball first. They're kind of built the same on offense. 154 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 1: Defensively some similarities as well, but this Cold's defense against 155 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:45,960 Speaker 1: power rushing attacks really strong up the middle with Buckner 156 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 1: and company. So I think that they match up pretty well. 157 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 1: Desperate team here, Colts have that kind of desperation while 158 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 1: Pat's riding high. Belichick historic being good in these spots, 159 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 1: which is a little bit scary, but I think the 160 00:07:57,520 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 1: Colts find a way to get it done. There's a 161 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:03,200 Speaker 1: couple other metrics that suggest the Patriots have been lucky 162 00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:05,120 Speaker 1: in other ways as well. They have they lead the 163 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:09,680 Speaker 1: league with twenty hidden points on special teams what I 164 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 1: mean by that, And the next best, by the way 165 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 1: is Denver with eleven, so they have nine more hidden points. 166 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 1: Are things out of your control? Those are missed field goals, right, 167 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 1: So you just take the league average rate compared to 168 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 1: if the team makes it against you. Punts, uh, you know, 169 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 1: kickoffs out of bounds, all these things that you don't 170 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 1: control at all. It's nothing to do with you. Um, 171 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 1: They've been lucky in that regard as well. So I 172 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:32,839 Speaker 1: think it'll be a competitive game, but Colts get it done. 173 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:35,160 Speaker 1: So I like them under a field goal. One line 174 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 1: that jumped out to me right from the jump and 175 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:41,199 Speaker 1: it's continued to go up is the Falcons at the Niners. 176 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 1: And obviously the Niners. I think they're five and two 177 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 1: in their last seven games. You and I have been 178 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 1: talking about them all season long, like even when they 179 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 1: were losing, they were better. But their secondary is not great. 180 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 1: They can give up points you know, in a in 181 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 1: a moment's notice that just happened against the Bengals. To 182 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 1: me nine and a half now, unlike you, I just 183 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 1: I struggle to bet against the Niners because I don't 184 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 1: want to be angry at them, right, But I can 185 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 1: bet on them, but I can't bet against him. I 186 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 1: know you did that last week against your Ravens. But 187 00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 1: this Falcons line feels that's this number should be like six. 188 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 1: You know, that feels six. Six and a half not 189 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 1: and a half feels really extreme. And I'm now I 190 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 1: got some believer in the Falcons. But that's an easy 191 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 1: backdoor cover I can see coming from a mile away. Yeah, 192 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:29,680 Speaker 1: the Falcons are dealing with some COVID issues as well. 193 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 1: Nothing um right now. As of right now, nothing has 194 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:35,560 Speaker 1: been announced like who's out or not, but they were 195 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 1: kind of doing virtual meetings and such, which could have 196 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:39,319 Speaker 1: something to do with it. I mean, the Falcons have 197 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 1: been really poor this year. They've been surging of late, 198 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,520 Speaker 1: but they beat a Panther's team in disarray. You know, 199 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 1: Newton throws that pick six pretty much swings the game. 200 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 1: There are other wins. Are the Jags. You know, they 201 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 1: beat Trevor Simeons by two. They beat the Jags by seven, 202 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 1: the Dolphins by two in London when they Dolphins were 203 00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:00,440 Speaker 1: messed the Jets by seven. The Giant with our whole 204 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:02,600 Speaker 1: team got hurt by three. That's it. So, I mean, 205 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 1: they beat some of the dregs of the NFL by three, 206 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:08,240 Speaker 1: one to three. It's a bad defense, it's a it's 207 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:09,679 Speaker 1: a bad offense. And just because they try to get 208 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 1: the ball to Patterson. He's been amazing, that's about it. 209 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 1: But Ryan seems past his prime. But yeah, without knowing 210 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:18,560 Speaker 1: any of the COVID it happens, you're gonna have any 211 00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 1: COVID issue. The line does feel a little bit high, 212 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:23,360 Speaker 1: especially if you can get ten with Atlanta. Kyle Shanahan 213 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:26,679 Speaker 1: has been dreadful as a home favorite. It's one of 214 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 1: the worst coaches in NFL history is a home favorite, 215 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 1: especially over a field goal. He's great as a dog, 216 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:34,640 Speaker 1: he's great on the road. Um, but they just find 217 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 1: the way the forty Niners played, They're not a team 218 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: that's You're not like the Bills right against a bad 219 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 1: team and they're gonna go out and win by But 220 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 1: the offense is playing a lot better now. But yeah, 221 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 1: the line does seem high, and that forty Niners in 222 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 1: that stadium. We've talked about this. Weird things happen, including 223 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:53,679 Speaker 1: you know the fact I think the Falcons is ten 224 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 1: point underdogs. A couple of years adown those season. Yeah yeah, 225 00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 1: and then then then they had another touchdown I think 226 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:04,200 Speaker 1: late in that game on the kickoff was one second 227 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 1: left and then there was kitches and put the game over. 228 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 1: The total one of the worst beats i've i've ever had, 229 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:11,080 Speaker 1: so there, they needed two touchdowns of the final second 230 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 1: to put the game over and it happened. Um, but yeah, 231 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 1: Shanahan lost that game. Um that was that must have 232 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 1: been painful, as so weird things happen that the line 233 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:22,560 Speaker 1: does seem I I would wait because it's in a 234 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:24,840 Speaker 1: dead zone right now. That taking nine eight and a 235 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 1: half doesn't really matter. See if you can get that ten. 236 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:30,679 Speaker 1: I do think it's probably a bit too high. Okay, 237 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 1: we'll stay in the NFC South Tampa. It feels like 238 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 1: Brady's you know, I don't know in the driver's seat. 239 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 1: We've got a very good chance to win the m 240 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 1: v P. They're playing well. He made some great throws 241 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:45,240 Speaker 1: last week playing the Saints, who you know are just 242 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:49,200 Speaker 1: kind of headed nowhere fast. I know you're you're fired 243 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:53,839 Speaker 1: up here on the over under hit me with that, Yeah, 244 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 1: I played some under here. Um, I just say it's 245 00:11:57,200 --> 00:12:00,560 Speaker 1: offense right now. Is just a joke, and they also 246 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 1: are dealing with injuries on the offensive line. You know, 247 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 1: you have Harris who suspended. You have little Jordan Humphrey, 248 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 1: who they wanted to be their number one receiver just 249 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 1: got hurt. They can't really throw the ball, so it's 250 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 1: really Taysom Hill trying to run it. You know, you 251 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 1: get Kamara back, but you can't run it against Tampa 252 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 1: at all. No one can run it against Tampa. So 253 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:21,080 Speaker 1: I just don't see how they move the ball here. 254 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,199 Speaker 1: And on the other side of the ball. The one 255 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:26,960 Speaker 1: team that really gives Brady a lot of trouble is 256 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:29,840 Speaker 1: the Saints defense right there. And it looks like Davenport 257 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:32,319 Speaker 1: will be back, Kim Jordan will be back. They can 258 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:35,320 Speaker 1: get pressure on Brady. Brady with a clean pocket this 259 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:39,079 Speaker 1: year has been almost flawless, one of the greatest clean 260 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:42,319 Speaker 1: pocket seasons of all time, and he's had sixty more 261 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:44,320 Speaker 1: clean pockets in another quarterback in the NFL. But when 262 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,480 Speaker 1: he's under pressure, you know, his his yards pretent drops 263 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:49,600 Speaker 1: about five and a half. It's twenty five in the NFL. 264 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 1: Completion percentage down the fifty. Not like his pressure numbers 265 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 1: don't look great. The Saints, for whatever reason, are able 266 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:57,360 Speaker 1: to generate pressure on them. And they have a great secondary, 267 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 1: so they're able to match up with these receivers. Brady 268 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 1: I think is all in three against the Saints in 269 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:05,360 Speaker 1: the regular season with Tampa and I want to say 270 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 1: twenty one and three or twenty four and three somewhere 271 00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:11,680 Speaker 1: around there against everyone else, uh while with the Bucks 272 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 1: and so this defense is a lot of confidence playing 273 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 1: up against Tampa. I think they'll show up here, you know, 274 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 1: to the ball. I just don't see Taysom Hill and handoffs. 275 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:25,000 Speaker 1: And that's how the Saints are gonna have to play this. 276 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 1: They're gonna have to run it. They're gonna just have 277 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 1: to try to run it, play really slow. Trust their defense. 278 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 1: So I played some under here on a really ugly card. 279 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:35,120 Speaker 1: I mean, the only other game I played so far 280 00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:38,800 Speaker 1: as a teaser of the Eagles and they're now out 281 00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:40,199 Speaker 1: of ten, but I teased them from seven and a 282 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 1: half to one and a half and with the Steelers 283 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 1: from one and a half up to seven and a 284 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 1: half um and that's it so far. A lot of 285 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 1: a lot of the rest is wait and see because 286 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 1: there's just COVID everywhere. NFL season is approaching the final stretch. 287 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:59,440 Speaker 1: FanDuel sports Book has a little something different to offer 288 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:03,640 Speaker 1: during this weekend's matchup between the Bucks and the Saints Vandals. 289 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 1: Given new customers odds on any touchdowns scored in the game. 290 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:11,959 Speaker 1: Any that means you want a hundred and fifty bucks 291 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 1: on a five dollar bet, so Saints versus the Buccaneers 292 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:21,240 Speaker 1: Buccaneers minus eleven. Let's go with Leonard fer Neet scores 293 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:24,560 Speaker 1: a touchdown? 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Redline is one 310 00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 1: We're gonna one hundred gamble dot in West Virginia or 311 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 1: called one hundred next step or text next step to 312 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 1: five two in Arizona, I okay, I'm gonna get you 313 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:26,640 Speaker 1: out of here on this NFC West game because obviously 314 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 1: the Rams were scuffling. Then they got Urban Meyer and 315 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 1: the Monday night game to get their mojo and Stafford 316 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:34,600 Speaker 1: probably at his best game as a as a Ram Seattle, 317 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 1: who looked, you know, dead, all of a sudden again, 318 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 1: you know, they play a crappy team and get a 319 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 1: big win. But the previous week they beat the Niners. 320 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 1: Now they have a little momentum, they're not when you 321 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:48,440 Speaker 1: look at the playoffs standings. If they win this game, 322 00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 1: stucky the Lions and the Bears the next two weeks, 323 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 1: All of a sudden, you look up the Seattle Seahawks 324 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 1: are eight and eight, it's not out of the realm 325 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 1: possibility if they win this week four and a half. 326 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 1: I watched this division very closely. All these teams played 327 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 1: each other really close. The travels easy. That four and 328 00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 1: a half numbered met looks very, very tasty for the Seahawks. Yeah, 329 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: and you also hate bring said again with there's COVID 330 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 1: issues with the Rams. Obviously last week that had a 331 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 1: couple of guys out Ramsey most importantly. Uh, and now 332 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 1: you have Beckham went on the list, and it's all right, 333 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:22,360 Speaker 1: wait and see who else if anyone goes on there. 334 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 1: And that's one of the reasons why this line dropped 335 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 1: from seven. Um is it doesn't look like the Rams 336 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:28,360 Speaker 1: will be at full strength. We're also coming off of 337 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 1: a huge win on Monday night, short week here. But 338 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: the yeah, I mean in this division, it's if you 339 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 1: just take every underdog in the division games, you'd probably 340 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 1: end up rich over the course of the year. And yeah, 341 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 1: the Seattle's offense was due for a lot of regression. 342 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 1: And they were you know, first and second down, they 343 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: were elite. They were top five in e p A 344 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 1: per play and but on third or four downs, they couldn't. 345 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 1: They were dead last in the NFL, so they were 346 00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:59,040 Speaker 1: you were due to start to sit with Russell Wilson. Also, 347 00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:00,760 Speaker 1: you had a bunch of games in there where Russell 348 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 1: Wilson clearly was not healthy. They said it was an 349 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:05,520 Speaker 1: eight week injury, and he came back, you know, after 350 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 1: three or four weeks. Well, last week I think was 351 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 1: week eight of that injury, so he finally started to 352 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 1: look healthy. On the other side of the ball, the 353 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:14,800 Speaker 1: Seattle defense, which is like top five and points per 354 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 1: that you know, points per game, red zone defense, it's 355 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 1: a it's a fraudulent defense if you look at every 356 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,600 Speaker 1: other metric. They're do for some aggression too. So I've 357 00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 1: been bet in Seattle over is the past two weeks. 358 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 1: If the Rams aren't at full strength here especially I 359 00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:31,480 Speaker 1: had Seattle. Wouldn't shock me to see Wilson had the 360 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 1: ball late, you know, down three with a chance to 361 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:38,080 Speaker 1: win this game, and in this division, taking a dog 362 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:39,880 Speaker 1: is never a bad idea. Do you think Seattle could 363 00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 1: be a sleeper playoff team or just too little too late? Yeah, 364 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:44,880 Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean I don't trust I still 365 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:48,720 Speaker 1: don't trust the defense at all. And I don't trust 366 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:55,639 Speaker 1: the play calling when things matter, right, So I think 367 00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 1: Pete Carroll is just that He's just a dinosaur when 368 00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:01,240 Speaker 1: it comes to offensive play cag and they just want 369 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:03,359 Speaker 1: to run too much. They wanna They never go for 370 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:05,440 Speaker 1: it on fourth down. Their way too conservatives. Now you've 371 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:07,399 Speaker 1: seen them open it up. You know, you saw that 372 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 1: forty Niners game. It's like, all right, let's go with 373 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:12,639 Speaker 1: a eight yard fake punt for a touchdown early in 374 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: the game, something Carol never does. If you look at 375 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: like the worst coaches when they should go and they 376 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 1: don't impourt down Scarros always at the bottom. Belichick, surprisely now, 377 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:24,239 Speaker 1: is very conservative. He's down there. Teams easier to do 378 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 1: that when you're three and eight and you have nothing 379 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 1: to lose, right, Yes, yes, but yeah, I mean just 380 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:31,000 Speaker 1: the play calls. So I don't know. I mean, when 381 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,879 Speaker 1: you have Russell Wilson um and look there's you just 382 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 1: get in and anything can happen. But I don't. I mean, 383 00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 1: this offensive line still has some issues, and I just 384 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 1: don't trust their defensive. Defensive numbers look a lot better 385 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:46,359 Speaker 1: than they are. The secondary is can be shred to pieces. 386 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:49,120 Speaker 1: I mean, Davis Mills through for three fifty last week. 387 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 1: But uh no, I mean, you get in, you get in, 388 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 1: you can you can do anything with with Russell Wilson 389 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 1: and those receivers. But I don't see a deep run. 390 00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 1: I see. You know, the the team from the bottom 391 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 1: that we talked about is the forty Niners just because 392 00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:07,480 Speaker 1: they prevent they present matchup problems to other teams, right 393 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:11,200 Speaker 1: they can you know with their style like that the Seahawks, 394 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 1: you're gonna have to. You need their secondary to slow 395 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:16,480 Speaker 1: teams down, and they want to throw it, and um, 396 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:18,640 Speaker 1: you know, the forty Niners can make a deep run. 397 00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 1: The one team that they probably don't want to play 398 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 1: and that no one wants to play them is the Bucks. 399 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 1: But if they can avoid the Bucks for a couple 400 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,879 Speaker 1: of rounds, it's just not a great matchup for them. Um. 401 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 1: I think the forty Niners are the team, especially if 402 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,680 Speaker 1: you get that secondary, little healthy stucky they match up 403 00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:35,479 Speaker 1: that they get a three six matchup with the Arizona Cardinals, 404 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:38,879 Speaker 1: who's already beat him twice. I mean, and items are 405 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,800 Speaker 1: a three point dog, you know, and Hopkins might be 406 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:46,680 Speaker 1: out all over that bad boy yep hammer Town City. Okay, yeah, 407 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 1: I look at that. I think that's the projective matchup 408 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:53,400 Speaker 1: right now. But this figures called This scary thing though, 409 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:57,040 Speaker 1: is is that Arizona if they get some injuries, you know, Dallas, 410 00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:59,520 Speaker 1: the schedule is pretty easy. It's not inconceivable that the 411 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 1: Cowboy end up as the three seed and the Cardinals 412 00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 1: end up as the four. Uh, the Cardinals and Dallas 413 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 1: played each other in a couple of weeks. I think 414 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 1: it's the New Year's even week that that'll be. Uh, 415 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:12,760 Speaker 1: that'll because I I kind of chalked up the Cardinals 416 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:14,439 Speaker 1: is a three seed. Then you look at the schedule, 417 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:16,920 Speaker 1: You're like, well, I mean ship could change, you know, yeah, 418 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 1: that's in Arizona. That could decide a lot. The Packers 419 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 1: have a fairly easy stay, especially because all these these 420 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 1: FC North teams are all beat up into COVID, Like 421 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:26,919 Speaker 1: they're gonna play the Ravens this week, the Browns at 422 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 1: home next week. So uh yeah, it's gonna be that 423 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:34,360 Speaker 1: three seed. Fingers crossed, the fingers crossed, it's it's Cardinals 424 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 1: for doers and fingers crossed that we don't get Colt 425 00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 1: McCoy because then we're guaranteed the lost. Agree, Well, stucky 426 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 1: have a good week. Thanks for thanks for talking a 427 00:20:42,080 --> 00:21:03,160 Speaker 1: little gambling. Talk to you soon. Absolutely, have a good weekend. 428 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:08,720 Speaker 1: The volume