1 00:00:15,250 --> 00:00:28,890 Speaker 1: Pushkin, you're listening to Brave New Planet, a podcast about 2 00:00:28,930 --> 00:00:33,130 Speaker 1: amazing new technologies that could dramatically improve our world. Or 3 00:00:33,490 --> 00:00:36,050 Speaker 1: if we don't make wise choices, could leave us a 4 00:00:36,050 --> 00:00:40,730 Speaker 1: lot worse off. Utopia or dystopia. It's up to us. 5 00:00:49,890 --> 00:00:52,570 Speaker 1: In the Zambales Mountains on the island of Luzon in 6 00:00:52,610 --> 00:00:57,570 Speaker 1: the Philippines, there lies of volcano named Mount Pinatubo. For 7 00:00:57,770 --> 00:01:03,090 Speaker 1: five centuries, it had lain dormant, but on Saturday June fifteenth, 8 00:01:03,170 --> 00:01:06,970 Speaker 1: nineteen ninety one, it erupted, causing one of the most 9 00:01:07,050 --> 00:01:11,850 Speaker 1: cataclysmic events of the twentieth century. Torrential rain has mixed 10 00:01:11,850 --> 00:01:15,650 Speaker 1: with volcanic ash to form a gray mud covering vast 11 00:01:15,690 --> 00:01:18,530 Speaker 1: areas of the northern Philippines. The ash falls up to 12 00:01:18,570 --> 00:01:23,770 Speaker 1: seven hundred kilometers from Mount Pinatubo. Nearly twenty million tons 13 00:01:23,810 --> 00:01:27,850 Speaker 1: of sulfur dioxide were hurled into the stratosphere. The effects 14 00:01:27,850 --> 00:01:30,970 Speaker 1: of the eruption were felt around the world. In the 15 00:01:30,970 --> 00:01:35,450 Speaker 1: following fifteen months, average global temperature dropped by roughly one 16 00:01:35,530 --> 00:01:40,610 Speaker 1: degree fahrenheit. Why because the sulfur dioxide released by the 17 00:01:40,690 --> 00:01:45,210 Speaker 1: volcano reflected back a fraction of the Sun's energy, preventing 18 00:01:45,210 --> 00:01:49,250 Speaker 1: it from reaching the Earth. The notion that huge volcanos 19 00:01:49,330 --> 00:01:52,050 Speaker 1: might affect the weather is actually an old one. Ben 20 00:01:52,170 --> 00:01:55,490 Speaker 1: Franklin proposed that the severe winter of seventeen eighty three 21 00:01:55,570 --> 00:01:58,810 Speaker 1: to eighty four was triggered by a massive eruption in 22 00:01:58,890 --> 00:02:03,650 Speaker 1: Iceland the previous summer. In nineteen sixty five, inspired by 23 00:02:03,690 --> 00:02:08,810 Speaker 1: the volcano theory, science advisors to President Lyndon Johnson proposed 24 00:02:08,810 --> 00:02:13,530 Speaker 1: develop helping technology to pump sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere 25 00:02:13,930 --> 00:02:18,130 Speaker 1: to offset global warming, but the idea didn't go far 26 00:02:18,770 --> 00:02:22,290 Speaker 1: because they had no good way to test it. Then, 27 00:02:22,810 --> 00:02:27,650 Speaker 1: in nineteen ninety one, Mount Pinatubo ran a test for US. 28 00:02:28,610 --> 00:02:32,850 Speaker 1: It seemed to confirm the hypothesis. The proposal started to 29 00:02:32,890 --> 00:02:36,130 Speaker 1: gain attention. Point is this, if the problem gets bad 30 00:02:36,210 --> 00:02:38,250 Speaker 1: enough to do something about, well, don't you want to 31 00:02:38,290 --> 00:02:40,650 Speaker 1: have something to do. The idea of that is to 32 00:02:40,810 --> 00:02:44,010 Speaker 1: essentially mimic nature, which is what happens when a volcano blows. 33 00:02:44,010 --> 00:02:47,370 Speaker 1: A big volcano blows. That's Stephen Dubner who touted the 34 00:02:47,410 --> 00:02:50,970 Speaker 1: idea in his two thousand and eight book Super Freakonomics 35 00:02:51,290 --> 00:02:55,250 Speaker 1: as a quick fix for global warming. In politics, the 36 00:02:55,330 --> 00:03:00,170 Speaker 1: idea attracted strange bedfellows, including former Republican Speaker of the 37 00:03:00,210 --> 00:03:05,530 Speaker 1: House Knut Gingrich, Texas Republican and climate science skeptic Lamar Smith, 38 00:03:05,970 --> 00:03:10,810 Speaker 1: and twenty twenty Democratic presidential candidate and Drew Yang. It 39 00:03:10,970 --> 00:03:14,490 Speaker 1: even made it into the Netflix comedy show The Fix, 40 00:03:15,130 --> 00:03:19,610 Speaker 1: where comedian d l hugely recommended blowing up a volcano 41 00:03:20,090 --> 00:03:23,850 Speaker 1: to save the world. So let's find some volcano in 42 00:03:23,850 --> 00:03:26,530 Speaker 1: the middle of the ocean, far away from civilization and 43 00:03:26,610 --> 00:03:31,290 Speaker 1: blow it the fu the idea, well, not blowing up volcanoes, 44 00:03:31,410 --> 00:03:35,530 Speaker 1: but spreading sulfur particles to decreased solar radiation is a 45 00:03:35,610 --> 00:03:41,650 Speaker 1: kind of climate intervention that some people call solar geoengineering. 46 00:03:42,290 --> 00:03:45,690 Speaker 1: It's gotten enough traction that the US National Research Council 47 00:03:46,050 --> 00:03:49,610 Speaker 1: organized a scientific committee to study it, and it's not 48 00:03:49,690 --> 00:03:54,170 Speaker 1: just theoretical. Some Harvard scientists are planning to launch an 49 00:03:54,210 --> 00:03:59,090 Speaker 1: experimental balloon to start learning how to hack the planet. 50 00:04:02,050 --> 00:04:06,290 Speaker 1: Today's big question, with the climate crisis becoming more and 51 00:04:06,450 --> 00:04:10,450 Speaker 1: more desperate, should we get ready to alter the atmosphere 52 00:04:10,530 --> 00:04:16,370 Speaker 1: of Planet Earth? Solar geoengineering? Can it protect us from 53 00:04:16,370 --> 00:04:21,010 Speaker 1: climate change? Do we need it? And what could possibly 54 00:04:21,090 --> 00:04:31,130 Speaker 1: go wrong? My name is Eric Lander. I'm a scientist 55 00:04:31,210 --> 00:04:34,090 Speaker 1: who works on ways to improve human health. I helped 56 00:04:34,170 --> 00:04:36,850 Speaker 1: lead the Human Genome Project, and today I lead the 57 00:04:36,970 --> 00:04:41,050 Speaker 1: Road Institute of MIT and Harvard. In the twenty first century, 58 00:04:41,410 --> 00:04:45,890 Speaker 1: powerful technologies have been appearing at a breathtaking pace, related 59 00:04:45,930 --> 00:04:50,410 Speaker 1: to the Internet, artificial intelligence, genetic engineering, and more. They 60 00:04:50,450 --> 00:04:54,770 Speaker 1: have amazing potential upsides, but we can't ignore the risks 61 00:04:54,810 --> 00:04:57,850 Speaker 1: that come with them. The decisions aren't just up to 62 00:04:57,970 --> 00:05:01,850 Speaker 1: scientists or politicians, whether we like it or not, we 63 00:05:02,530 --> 00:05:05,650 Speaker 1: all of us are the stewards of a brave new planet. 64 00:05:06,170 --> 00:05:14,090 Speaker 1: This generation's choices will shape the future never before. Coming 65 00:05:14,170 --> 00:05:18,450 Speaker 1: up on this episode of Brave New Planets Blocking the Sun, 66 00:05:19,450 --> 00:05:22,250 Speaker 1: we'll talk to one of the leading proponents of the technology, 67 00:05:22,730 --> 00:05:26,290 Speaker 1: so solar Gin My sharing ken with total confidence and 68 00:05:26,330 --> 00:05:28,930 Speaker 1: this is not an overstatement for store temperatures to pre 69 00:05:28,930 --> 00:05:32,850 Speaker 1: industrial We'll hear from two experts who weighed the benefits 70 00:05:32,930 --> 00:05:36,170 Speaker 1: and risks for the National Academy of Sciences. I can 71 00:05:36,210 --> 00:05:41,850 Speaker 1: imagine this launching climate wars. Some third party might actually 72 00:05:42,610 --> 00:05:46,530 Speaker 1: get to the point where the climate in their part 73 00:05:46,570 --> 00:05:52,130 Speaker 1: of the world had become intolerable and they would unilaterally 74 00:05:52,410 --> 00:05:59,250 Speaker 1: decide to modify the planet's climate without consulting with anyone, 75 00:05:59,530 --> 00:06:02,250 Speaker 1: and we'll speak with the executive director of Sunrise, a 76 00:06:02,370 --> 00:06:05,970 Speaker 1: movement of young people working to stop climate change, about 77 00:06:06,050 --> 00:06:09,970 Speaker 1: whether it's time to consider what to do if else fails. 78 00:06:10,090 --> 00:06:14,370 Speaker 1: I understand the desperation. I understand the urgency. I understand 79 00:06:14,450 --> 00:06:17,410 Speaker 1: that we need to kick everything into high gear. So 80 00:06:17,530 --> 00:06:24,810 Speaker 1: stay with us Chapter one, Climate Crisis. To get up 81 00:06:24,810 --> 00:06:27,770 Speaker 1: to speed about the climate crisis. I went down to Washington, 82 00:06:27,850 --> 00:06:31,090 Speaker 1: d C. To visit one of the nation's leading scientists, 83 00:06:31,090 --> 00:06:34,410 Speaker 1: someone I know well. So my name is Marsha McNutt. 84 00:06:35,130 --> 00:06:39,970 Speaker 1: I am a marine geophysicist. As a geophysicist, what's the 85 00:06:40,090 --> 00:06:43,210 Speaker 1: coolest thing you've been involved in? There are so many 86 00:06:43,650 --> 00:06:47,970 Speaker 1: cool things that geophysicists get to do. I've been down 87 00:06:48,010 --> 00:06:53,210 Speaker 1: to the bottom of the ocean to see volcanoes erupting 88 00:06:53,210 --> 00:06:57,010 Speaker 1: on the seafloor. I got to stand on the South 89 00:06:57,090 --> 00:07:02,850 Speaker 1: Pole on the hundredth anniversary of Amonson's first conquest. I 90 00:07:02,930 --> 00:07:10,170 Speaker 1: have been to outer Mongolia with nomadic tribesmen studying the 91 00:07:10,610 --> 00:07:14,490 Speaker 1: birth of mountain belts. Chief physicists get to go a 92 00:07:14,530 --> 00:07:19,130 Speaker 1: lot of very unusual places and do very wonderful things. 93 00:07:19,850 --> 00:07:23,050 Speaker 1: Marsha McNutt has been a professor at MIT, head of 94 00:07:23,050 --> 00:07:27,050 Speaker 1: the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, director of the US 95 00:07:27,130 --> 00:07:30,770 Speaker 1: Geological Survey, and the editor in chief of Science, the 96 00:07:30,890 --> 00:07:35,370 Speaker 1: nation's leading scientific journal. Today, she's president of the US 97 00:07:35,490 --> 00:07:39,810 Speaker 1: National Academy of Sciences, an institution created by Abraham Lincoln 98 00:07:39,810 --> 00:07:44,050 Speaker 1: in eighteen sixty three to advise the US government. It 99 00:07:44,170 --> 00:07:48,450 Speaker 1: prepares major reports on crucial scientific questions facing the country. 100 00:07:49,010 --> 00:07:51,770 Speaker 1: I wanted to talk to Marsha McNutt because just before 101 00:07:51,810 --> 00:07:55,130 Speaker 1: becoming president of the Academy in twenty and sixteen, she 102 00:07:55,370 --> 00:07:59,570 Speaker 1: chaired the Academy's report on Climate intervention, and I also 103 00:07:59,690 --> 00:08:02,730 Speaker 1: talked to another of the authors of that report. My 104 00:08:02,810 --> 00:08:05,370 Speaker 1: name is Ray Pierre Humbert. I'm the Highey Professor of 105 00:08:05,410 --> 00:08:09,370 Speaker 1: Physics at the University of Oxford. I hadn't met Ray before. 106 00:08:09,570 --> 00:08:13,010 Speaker 1: He's a dead ringer for Santa Claus. He's also an 107 00:08:13,010 --> 00:08:16,650 Speaker 1: expert in planets, not just our own planet, but also 108 00:08:16,970 --> 00:08:22,250 Speaker 1: exo planets, the thousands of planets outside our own solar system. 109 00:08:22,490 --> 00:08:25,450 Speaker 1: My favorite planet is fifty five kancre E, which is 110 00:08:25,490 --> 00:08:28,450 Speaker 1: so hot it has a permanent lava ocean on the dayside. 111 00:08:29,930 --> 00:08:33,370 Speaker 1: Where's that located. It's it's around the star fifty five kancres, 112 00:08:33,450 --> 00:08:35,650 Speaker 1: which is not quite a visible star, but it is 113 00:08:35,690 --> 00:08:39,250 Speaker 1: near the claw one of the clause of the scorpion scorpio. 114 00:08:41,930 --> 00:08:44,210 Speaker 1: And that's your favorite planet. Well, let's say it's the 115 00:08:44,210 --> 00:08:45,890 Speaker 1: one we're having the most fund with right now. I 116 00:08:45,890 --> 00:08:48,410 Speaker 1: see it not the vacation on a It's not one 117 00:08:48,410 --> 00:08:51,770 Speaker 1: of the vacation sites, unless you like lava beaches and 118 00:08:51,810 --> 00:08:54,410 Speaker 1: so forth. So I talked with Marsha and Ray about 119 00:08:54,410 --> 00:08:57,890 Speaker 1: the current state of climate science. Now I shouldn't have 120 00:08:57,930 --> 00:09:00,610 Speaker 1: to say this, but just in case you've been living 121 00:09:00,610 --> 00:09:03,690 Speaker 1: on an exo planet or in a state of deep denial, 122 00:09:04,370 --> 00:09:08,770 Speaker 1: there's no serious question that climate change is real or 123 00:09:09,130 --> 00:09:12,010 Speaker 1: that it's largely due to excess carbon dioxide from burning 124 00:09:12,050 --> 00:09:16,090 Speaker 1: fossil fuels causing a greenhouse effect. Here's the science in 125 00:09:16,130 --> 00:09:20,450 Speaker 1: a nutshell. A greenhouse lets you grow greens and green Bay, 126 00:09:20,450 --> 00:09:23,170 Speaker 1: Wisconsin in the middle of the winter because the glass 127 00:09:23,250 --> 00:09:26,410 Speaker 1: lets light pass through but holds the heat in. The 128 00:09:26,410 --> 00:09:29,850 Speaker 1: thicker the glass, the better the heat retention. CO two 129 00:09:30,010 --> 00:09:32,810 Speaker 1: does the same thing for the Earth. It lets sunlight 130 00:09:32,970 --> 00:09:37,250 Speaker 1: pass but retains much of the resulting heat. CO two 131 00:09:37,290 --> 00:09:40,690 Speaker 1: has been increasing sharply over the past century, two levels 132 00:09:40,970 --> 00:09:45,330 Speaker 1: unprecedented in human history, and as a result, the Earth 133 00:09:45,410 --> 00:09:49,650 Speaker 1: is getting hotter. The last six years ranks of the 134 00:09:49,730 --> 00:09:55,570 Speaker 1: six hottest years in recorded history. There is a lot 135 00:09:55,650 --> 00:10:00,690 Speaker 1: more attention to global warming amongst the public and the press, 136 00:10:00,850 --> 00:10:05,090 Speaker 1: and amongst politicians, now that we are starting to see 137 00:10:05,090 --> 00:10:07,930 Speaker 1: some of the effects. What we've seen with just about 138 00:10:07,930 --> 00:10:09,890 Speaker 1: a degree of warming is nothing compared to what you 139 00:10:09,930 --> 00:10:13,690 Speaker 1: get with the second degree of warming. Swaths of Puerto 140 00:10:13,770 --> 00:10:17,930 Speaker 1: Rico underwater roads turned through raging rivers, millions of people 141 00:10:17,970 --> 00:10:21,650 Speaker 1: affected by devastating floods across South Asia, his historic fires 142 00:10:21,730 --> 00:10:26,930 Speaker 1: devastating Australia, more than one hundred wildfires burning in the Arctic. 143 00:10:27,010 --> 00:10:32,570 Speaker 1: Firefighters in California continuing to battle some dangerous, fast moving wildfires, 144 00:10:32,730 --> 00:10:38,050 Speaker 1: five of the six largest infernos in state history, because 145 00:10:38,370 --> 00:10:43,450 Speaker 1: of the release of CO two into the atmosphere from 146 00:10:43,490 --> 00:10:49,090 Speaker 1: the burning of fossil fuels. Primarily, we are entering basically 147 00:10:49,210 --> 00:10:56,170 Speaker 1: an unknown regime of rapidly changing climate. It is very 148 00:10:56,210 --> 00:11:00,570 Speaker 1: difficult for anyone looking at the data to say with 149 00:11:00,730 --> 00:11:06,570 Speaker 1: any confidence that in this future that we are entering 150 00:11:07,130 --> 00:11:12,410 Speaker 1: will continue to be dousive for human habitation. Once you 151 00:11:12,730 --> 00:11:16,810 Speaker 1: enter that zone, you basically can't back up. The dye 152 00:11:16,810 --> 00:11:21,530 Speaker 1: has already cast, and every projection shows that we have 153 00:11:21,610 --> 00:11:24,730 Speaker 1: at most decades to act. What are the sort of 154 00:11:24,730 --> 00:11:27,970 Speaker 1: events we expect to happen as we have more and 155 00:11:27,970 --> 00:11:30,810 Speaker 1: more SEO two in the atmosphere? What do we see 156 00:11:30,850 --> 00:11:33,290 Speaker 1: happening now and what do we imagine happening in the future. 157 00:11:33,690 --> 00:11:38,570 Speaker 1: So what we see happening now are things like ice 158 00:11:38,650 --> 00:11:45,450 Speaker 1: sheet smelting, sea level rising, more energy in the atmospheric system, 159 00:11:45,490 --> 00:11:52,530 Speaker 1: which leads to more storminess, higher amounts of rainfall, stronger hurricanes. 160 00:11:53,250 --> 00:11:56,330 Speaker 1: Areas of the country that used to be pleasant to 161 00:11:56,370 --> 00:12:01,650 Speaker 1: live in now becoming uninhabitable because of storm surge and 162 00:12:02,290 --> 00:12:06,250 Speaker 1: high tides. We're seeing death of coral reefs because the 163 00:12:06,330 --> 00:12:08,930 Speaker 1: ocean's too warm for them. Some of the things that 164 00:12:09,330 --> 00:12:15,730 Speaker 1: are more complicated but likely to be far more damaging 165 00:12:16,410 --> 00:12:24,330 Speaker 1: are the longer droughts, the inner actions between ecosystems, things 166 00:12:24,530 --> 00:12:30,090 Speaker 1: like the bloom and plankton coming earlier in the spring 167 00:12:30,930 --> 00:12:36,770 Speaker 1: when the animals that need to feed on them haven't 168 00:12:36,890 --> 00:12:43,530 Speaker 1: yet returned from their migration, So you basically get animals 169 00:12:43,610 --> 00:12:53,170 Speaker 1: dying of starvation. Chapter two the wet bulb temperature. When 170 00:12:53,210 --> 00:12:58,330 Speaker 1: scientists describe global warming, they usually talk about average temperature rise. 171 00:12:59,010 --> 00:13:03,210 Speaker 1: For example, take the twenty sixteen Paris Climate Agreement. That's 172 00:13:03,290 --> 00:13:05,850 Speaker 1: the UN agreements supported by one hundred and ninety four 173 00:13:05,890 --> 00:13:10,490 Speaker 1: countries but sadly no longer including the United States. It 174 00:13:10,530 --> 00:13:15,250 Speaker 1: aims to keep the average global temperatureize below two degrees celsius. 175 00:13:15,770 --> 00:13:19,130 Speaker 1: The problem is that an average temperature rise of two 176 00:13:19,210 --> 00:13:23,810 Speaker 1: degrees celsius sounds puny, even if you convert it to 177 00:13:24,010 --> 00:13:28,130 Speaker 1: roughly four degrees fahrenheit. After all, temperatures can fluctuate by 178 00:13:28,490 --> 00:13:31,810 Speaker 1: twenty degrees fahrenheit over the course of a day. What's 179 00:13:31,850 --> 00:13:35,330 Speaker 1: the big deal? I worry that we as scientists have 180 00:13:35,570 --> 00:13:40,170 Speaker 1: perhaps done a disservice to climate change by talking about 181 00:13:40,410 --> 00:13:46,890 Speaker 1: average changes because the average doesn't sound so bad. But 182 00:13:47,290 --> 00:13:52,010 Speaker 1: when you talk about how the extremes are likely to change, 183 00:13:52,570 --> 00:13:56,290 Speaker 1: that is when it gets very scary. One of the 184 00:13:56,890 --> 00:14:01,970 Speaker 1: aspects of climate change that scares me the most is 185 00:14:02,210 --> 00:14:08,090 Speaker 1: if instead you measure climate change by how many days 186 00:14:08,410 --> 00:14:13,370 Speaker 1: in a ser location is the temperature likely to exceed 187 00:14:13,690 --> 00:14:18,570 Speaker 1: the wet bulb temperature? What's the wet bulb temperature? It's 188 00:14:18,610 --> 00:14:22,250 Speaker 1: basically the difference between life and death. Your body is 189 00:14:22,290 --> 00:14:25,130 Speaker 1: always generating heat, and to keep your body at a 190 00:14:25,250 --> 00:14:29,450 Speaker 1: constant temperature, you need to radiate away the excess heat. 191 00:14:29,490 --> 00:14:32,770 Speaker 1: If you can't, you'll die. On a cool day, it's 192 00:14:32,810 --> 00:14:36,170 Speaker 1: no problem, your skin can lose heat directly to the air. 193 00:14:36,930 --> 00:14:39,810 Speaker 1: But on a hot summer day, you need to sweat 194 00:14:40,330 --> 00:14:44,130 Speaker 1: so the evaporation carries away the heat. Now, if the 195 00:14:44,250 --> 00:14:47,490 Speaker 1: temperature and the humidity get too high, a person literally 196 00:14:47,530 --> 00:14:53,250 Speaker 1: can't sweat enough to cool themselves. What's the limit. Well, 197 00:14:53,290 --> 00:14:56,810 Speaker 1: at fifty percent humidity, you can't make it much past 198 00:14:56,850 --> 00:15:00,650 Speaker 1: one hundred and twelve degrees in the shade. So unless 199 00:15:00,730 --> 00:15:06,530 Speaker 1: that person can get to someplace that's air conditioned, they 200 00:15:06,570 --> 00:15:10,890 Speaker 1: will literally overheat and suffer heat stroke. There are many 201 00:15:10,930 --> 00:15:15,810 Speaker 1: places on this planet right now in India, Southeast Asia, 202 00:15:16,290 --> 00:15:21,530 Speaker 1: Africa where the number of days that are exceeding the 203 00:15:21,610 --> 00:15:28,850 Speaker 1: wet bulb temperature are going up dramatically every summer. We're 204 00:15:28,890 --> 00:15:32,690 Speaker 1: even seeing life threatening temperatures across temperate zones in Europe, 205 00:15:33,130 --> 00:15:37,210 Speaker 1: with record highs recorded in Germany, Netherlands, Britain and France, 206 00:15:37,770 --> 00:15:42,410 Speaker 1: with the ladder hitting roughly one hundred and fifteen degrees fahrenheit. 207 00:15:43,370 --> 00:15:45,690 Speaker 1: So a better way to think about the effective climate 208 00:15:45,770 --> 00:15:48,890 Speaker 1: change might be the number of days that a region 209 00:15:48,970 --> 00:15:54,130 Speaker 1: becomes uninhabitable outdoors. If you go from say one degree 210 00:15:54,170 --> 00:15:56,850 Speaker 1: of warming to two degrees of warming, a lot of 211 00:15:56,890 --> 00:16:00,690 Speaker 1: the damages scale linearly. If you used to have, say 212 00:16:00,850 --> 00:16:04,650 Speaker 1: something like thirty days of life threatening heat waves in 213 00:16:04,650 --> 00:16:07,690 Speaker 1: some place, we go to something like sixty days when 214 00:16:07,690 --> 00:16:11,730 Speaker 1: you go two degrees. What would happen if we blow 215 00:16:11,810 --> 00:16:15,170 Speaker 1: past two degrees celsius, it's more like a global rise 216 00:16:15,210 --> 00:16:18,290 Speaker 1: of four degrees celsius. If you get to four or 217 00:16:18,290 --> 00:16:21,010 Speaker 1: five degrees global mean warming, then you get to the 218 00:16:21,090 --> 00:16:26,930 Speaker 1: situation where perhaps half of the earth becomes uninhabitable outdoors 219 00:16:26,930 --> 00:16:29,810 Speaker 1: for mammals. Then air conditioning becomes not a matter of 220 00:16:29,810 --> 00:16:32,050 Speaker 1: comfort but a matter of life support. It's like living 221 00:16:32,090 --> 00:16:36,690 Speaker 1: in a space station and a power failure becomes not 222 00:16:36,730 --> 00:16:39,970 Speaker 1: just a matter of inconvenience but megadeath. Of course, most 223 00:16:40,010 --> 00:16:43,170 Speaker 1: people on Earth don't have access to homes with air conditioning. 224 00:16:43,850 --> 00:16:46,690 Speaker 1: It's these people who will suffer. And then you also 225 00:16:46,690 --> 00:16:49,330 Speaker 1: have to think about all the animals that are not 226 00:16:49,410 --> 00:16:51,530 Speaker 1: going to be living in air conditioning. What happens to elephants, 227 00:16:51,530 --> 00:16:55,690 Speaker 1: what happens to cattle. It's a very different world. Unfortunately, 228 00:16:55,850 --> 00:16:58,770 Speaker 1: we're not making much progress on reducing CO two emissions 229 00:16:59,050 --> 00:17:03,130 Speaker 1: by almost all scientific accounts. If we don't drastically change 230 00:17:03,170 --> 00:17:06,650 Speaker 1: our fossil fuel consumption, we're going to blow past the 231 00:17:06,690 --> 00:17:10,210 Speaker 1: target of two degrees in the Paris Agreement. The problem 232 00:17:10,370 --> 00:17:14,850 Speaker 1: is it's really hard and really slow to change the 233 00:17:14,850 --> 00:17:20,290 Speaker 1: world's energy systems. To move to renewables requires electrifying your 234 00:17:20,410 --> 00:17:24,410 Speaker 1: energy system. That's really the only realistic way to do it. 235 00:17:24,930 --> 00:17:31,650 Speaker 1: Electrifying the system requires building transmission lines. My homes in California, 236 00:17:31,770 --> 00:17:35,290 Speaker 1: it can take three years just to permit a new 237 00:17:35,330 --> 00:17:40,130 Speaker 1: transmission line. Replacing power plants takes even longer since they're 238 00:17:40,170 --> 00:17:47,810 Speaker 1: designed to last for decades. Power grids generally evolve over 239 00:17:47,890 --> 00:17:53,130 Speaker 1: a forty year time scale. So this is why many 240 00:17:54,250 --> 00:18:02,570 Speaker 1: scientists and many policymakers are concerned about taking an infrastructure 241 00:18:02,610 --> 00:18:07,850 Speaker 1: system that has a forty year renewal rate and trying 242 00:18:07,850 --> 00:18:15,090 Speaker 1: to respond to a problem that needs immediate action. Here's 243 00:18:15,130 --> 00:18:18,890 Speaker 1: where the volcano strategy comes in. We've already tampered with 244 00:18:18,930 --> 00:18:22,530 Speaker 1: our atmosphere and we're starting to feel the consequences. Why 245 00:18:22,570 --> 00:18:24,930 Speaker 1: not tamper some more to prevent some of the warming, 246 00:18:25,290 --> 00:18:28,930 Speaker 1: saving lives and curbing suffering. That's the idea behind this 247 00:18:29,010 --> 00:18:33,010 Speaker 1: type of climate intervention. Is it time to start experimenting 248 00:18:33,050 --> 00:18:41,930 Speaker 1: with the technology? Chapter three, Tiny space Mirrors. I arranged 249 00:18:41,970 --> 00:18:44,770 Speaker 1: to speak with Professor David Keith. He's one of the 250 00:18:44,850 --> 00:18:48,970 Speaker 1: leading proponents of solar geo engineering research and he's aiming 251 00:18:49,010 --> 00:18:52,650 Speaker 1: to run a small scale test. David agreed to bicycle 252 00:18:52,690 --> 00:18:55,090 Speaker 1: down from Harvard to the other end of Cambridge where 253 00:18:55,130 --> 00:18:58,210 Speaker 1: I work at the Broad Institute. So solar geo my 254 00:18:58,250 --> 00:19:01,530 Speaker 1: sharing ken with total confidence, and this is not an 255 00:19:01,530 --> 00:19:05,690 Speaker 1: overstatement for store temperatures to pre industrial Long before David 256 00:19:05,730 --> 00:19:09,970 Speaker 1: started thinking about solar gew engineering, his scientific career had 257 00:19:10,010 --> 00:19:14,170 Speaker 1: an unusual start. His first job was as a research 258 00:19:14,250 --> 00:19:17,450 Speaker 1: assistance in the Arctic. The year I was there, we 259 00:19:17,450 --> 00:19:20,530 Speaker 1: were really working on walruses and we were trying to 260 00:19:20,610 --> 00:19:23,490 Speaker 1: learn how to identify them by their calls, and then 261 00:19:23,850 --> 00:19:26,690 Speaker 1: we had to brand them with cattle brands that we 262 00:19:26,770 --> 00:19:29,330 Speaker 1: bought in Albertic and my job as the young guy, 263 00:19:29,450 --> 00:19:32,050 Speaker 1: was to carry the brands. That was the light part 264 00:19:32,090 --> 00:19:34,850 Speaker 1: and the propane tank and the kind of flamethory thing 265 00:19:34,890 --> 00:19:37,210 Speaker 1: that you needed to heat have the brands. I'd done 266 00:19:37,450 --> 00:19:41,410 Speaker 1: way more big outside time than most people, so probably 267 00:19:41,410 --> 00:19:47,490 Speaker 1: more than a thousand kilometers of kind of Arctic ski trips, expeditions. Whatever. 268 00:19:47,570 --> 00:19:52,170 Speaker 1: Would you call yourself an environmentalist in this topic? This 269 00:19:52,250 --> 00:19:54,290 Speaker 1: is such a big fight, you know, I feel like 270 00:19:54,290 --> 00:19:56,450 Speaker 1: that's for other people to judge. But I'd say I've 271 00:19:56,450 --> 00:19:59,570 Speaker 1: been to Earth First rallies and I've done our actions, 272 00:19:59,690 --> 00:20:02,570 Speaker 1: and yeah, I think the short answer it would be yeah. 273 00:20:02,650 --> 00:20:05,690 Speaker 1: He began studying global warming when he arrived at M 274 00:20:05,890 --> 00:20:09,370 Speaker 1: team the nineteen eighties. I stumbled into this really cool 275 00:20:09,410 --> 00:20:13,290 Speaker 1: group of students in between Harvard and MIT grad students 276 00:20:13,330 --> 00:20:15,690 Speaker 1: who were working on climate change, both the science and 277 00:20:15,730 --> 00:20:19,530 Speaker 1: public policy in an interdictminary way. Today, David focuses on 278 00:20:19,610 --> 00:20:26,610 Speaker 1: solar geoengineering. He's mostly focused on stratospheric geoengineering, which is 279 00:20:26,650 --> 00:20:29,530 Speaker 1: what we've been talking about, mimicking the behavior of a 280 00:20:29,570 --> 00:20:34,330 Speaker 1: volcano by spraying reflective particles into the stratosphere. But there's 281 00:20:34,330 --> 00:20:37,970 Speaker 1: actually several different ways of changing the Earth's solar radiation. 282 00:20:38,530 --> 00:20:41,810 Speaker 1: There's the idea of brightening a certain kind of marine 283 00:20:41,930 --> 00:20:46,690 Speaker 1: boundary there cloud Brighter clouds would reflect more sunlight. There's 284 00:20:46,690 --> 00:20:49,890 Speaker 1: the idea of thinning a kind of serious cloud by 285 00:20:49,930 --> 00:20:53,650 Speaker 1: adding silver eyedide or something like that. Whispy or clouds 286 00:20:53,650 --> 00:20:56,010 Speaker 1: would trap less of the Sun's heat. And then there's 287 00:20:56,090 --> 00:20:59,090 Speaker 1: space based technologies idea you could build big orbiting mirrors 288 00:20:59,130 --> 00:21:02,170 Speaker 1: or what have you. To make a difference, space mirrors 289 00:21:02,290 --> 00:21:05,810 Speaker 1: would need to be huge with a surface area though 290 00:21:05,890 --> 00:21:09,330 Speaker 1: about the size of Greenland. It wouldn't be cheap get 291 00:21:09,330 --> 00:21:12,210 Speaker 1: them into orbit. I think if you think in the 292 00:21:12,290 --> 00:21:15,250 Speaker 1: next decades, I think the idea of space based stuff 293 00:21:15,290 --> 00:21:17,450 Speaker 1: is ridiculous. But if you're thinking about this is something 294 00:21:17,490 --> 00:21:19,490 Speaker 1: a humans do over a century or century and a half, 295 00:21:19,690 --> 00:21:22,890 Speaker 1: I don't think it's crazy to think that we might 296 00:21:22,930 --> 00:21:25,650 Speaker 1: do space space things. For now, though, the best approach 297 00:21:25,690 --> 00:21:30,730 Speaker 1: would be stratospheric intervention, putting reflective particles into the atmosphere. 298 00:21:31,250 --> 00:21:34,370 Speaker 1: You can think of them as tiny space mirrors just 299 00:21:34,490 --> 00:21:38,410 Speaker 1: to the lower altitude. Planes would fly around the stratosphere, 300 00:21:38,530 --> 00:21:42,970 Speaker 1: springing plumes of sulfur dioxide or similar chemicals. It would 301 00:21:42,970 --> 00:21:47,050 Speaker 1: be surprisingly cost effective. The cost to kind of begin 302 00:21:47,130 --> 00:21:50,290 Speaker 1: a program that's putting material quantities of staff in the 303 00:21:50,330 --> 00:21:53,850 Speaker 1: stratosphere is probably just a few billion dollars the kind 304 00:21:53,850 --> 00:21:56,410 Speaker 1: of climate damages we're talking about a global basis or 305 00:21:56,530 --> 00:21:59,370 Speaker 1: of order a trillion a year. So the idea that 306 00:21:59,370 --> 00:22:01,850 Speaker 1: a few countries spend a few billion a year, that's 307 00:22:01,850 --> 00:22:03,890 Speaker 1: a small enough number. They don't think that cost is 308 00:22:03,930 --> 00:22:07,010 Speaker 1: going to be the direct driver. A few billion dollars 309 00:22:07,050 --> 00:22:10,290 Speaker 1: to clean up a trillion dollar mess sounds like a 310 00:22:10,290 --> 00:22:15,650 Speaker 1: pretty good deal, at least on paper. What could possibly 311 00:22:15,690 --> 00:22:23,570 Speaker 1: go wrong? Chapter four? What could possibly go wrong? When 312 00:22:23,570 --> 00:22:26,450 Speaker 1: the National Research Council scientists set down to write a 313 00:22:26,450 --> 00:22:30,170 Speaker 1: report on solar geo engineering, the first thing they realized 314 00:22:30,610 --> 00:22:35,170 Speaker 1: was that calling the technology solar geo engineering might be 315 00:22:35,290 --> 00:22:39,490 Speaker 1: seriously misleading. I never liked the term geo engineering myself, 316 00:22:39,570 --> 00:22:44,890 Speaker 1: because engineering is term we generally apply to precise management 317 00:22:45,010 --> 00:22:48,610 Speaker 1: or design to control systems that we actually understand. But 318 00:22:48,770 --> 00:22:51,370 Speaker 1: what is generally called geo engineering is something that is 319 00:22:51,410 --> 00:22:54,210 Speaker 1: really hard to try out, hard to resolve. The main 320 00:22:54,330 --> 00:23:00,250 Speaker 1: questions about this is basically throwing up these particles into 321 00:23:00,330 --> 00:23:06,250 Speaker 1: the stratosphere at the whim of the jet stream. They 322 00:23:06,730 --> 00:23:10,490 Speaker 1: go where they will. It's not like a house with 323 00:23:10,690 --> 00:23:15,890 Speaker 1: thermostats in every room, where you can turn this room 324 00:23:15,930 --> 00:23:19,890 Speaker 1: a little cooler and maybe this one not so cool, 325 00:23:20,290 --> 00:23:23,210 Speaker 1: and turn this one off because no one really needs 326 00:23:23,210 --> 00:23:29,130 Speaker 1: it in this room. So we preferred the term albedo modification, 327 00:23:29,330 --> 00:23:32,410 Speaker 1: even though it sounds kind of wonky. Albedo is the 328 00:23:32,450 --> 00:23:37,650 Speaker 1: scientific term for the reflectivity of a planet. Unfortunately, albedo 329 00:23:37,730 --> 00:23:42,450 Speaker 1: modification wouldn't mean anything to the general public. The other extreme, 330 00:23:42,850 --> 00:23:46,730 Speaker 1: some people use the term hacking the planet. There's a 331 00:23:46,730 --> 00:23:50,130 Speaker 1: lot of sort of techno optimism involved in the people 332 00:23:50,250 --> 00:23:54,370 Speaker 1: that are doing research on this, which is very similar 333 00:23:54,410 --> 00:23:56,250 Speaker 1: to the sense of pride, where you're hacking a system 334 00:23:56,290 --> 00:23:58,810 Speaker 1: and it is a sort of cool thing to contemplate, 335 00:23:58,850 --> 00:24:00,450 Speaker 1: And if we didn't have to live on the planet, 336 00:24:00,970 --> 00:24:04,370 Speaker 1: I'd be really interested in it myself. But it is 337 00:24:04,410 --> 00:24:08,370 Speaker 1: dealing with the only home that we have and has 338 00:24:08,450 --> 00:24:13,530 Speaker 1: potentially really very serious consequences. Ultimately, the scientists settled on 339 00:24:13,570 --> 00:24:19,050 Speaker 1: the neutral term climate intervention. I like the climate intervention 340 00:24:19,170 --> 00:24:21,570 Speaker 1: because just like with interventions, and say a person who 341 00:24:21,570 --> 00:24:25,170 Speaker 1: has a drug problem or whatever, you're not guaranteed to 342 00:24:25,210 --> 00:24:27,850 Speaker 1: achieve the outcome that you want. You're having an intervention 343 00:24:27,850 --> 00:24:31,370 Speaker 1: because you know something is wrong, but you just can't 344 00:24:31,410 --> 00:24:33,650 Speaker 1: be sure that you're not going to actually make the 345 00:24:33,690 --> 00:24:36,650 Speaker 1: situation worse, but you may be so desperate that you 346 00:24:37,050 --> 00:24:40,210 Speaker 1: really need to do something. As the scientists dug into 347 00:24:40,290 --> 00:24:44,330 Speaker 1: the problem, they recognize that the perfect climate intervention would 348 00:24:44,370 --> 00:24:49,690 Speaker 1: simply be to dim the sun by one or two percent. Unfortunately, though, 349 00:24:49,730 --> 00:24:53,450 Speaker 1: the Sun doesn't have a dimmer switch, and using particles 350 00:24:53,450 --> 00:24:57,090 Speaker 1: to block the Sun's rays isn't quite the same thing. 351 00:24:57,970 --> 00:25:01,810 Speaker 1: You can control the average global temperature, but the impact 352 00:25:01,890 --> 00:25:05,530 Speaker 1: across the globe may be very uneven. If you put 353 00:25:05,570 --> 00:25:08,970 Speaker 1: aerosols up in the stratosphere, tiny little particles in the stratosphere, 354 00:25:09,410 --> 00:25:11,770 Speaker 1: they don't just sit there where you put them. They 355 00:25:11,810 --> 00:25:15,090 Speaker 1: get blown around by the stratospheric winds, They take up water, 356 00:25:15,250 --> 00:25:19,330 Speaker 1: and they get bigger. Bigger particles have different reflective properties 357 00:25:19,330 --> 00:25:22,650 Speaker 1: than smaller particles. They tend to get bunched up near 358 00:25:22,690 --> 00:25:26,410 Speaker 1: the poles eventually and fall out the poles. You don't 359 00:25:26,450 --> 00:25:30,970 Speaker 1: necessarily get an equal distribution between the northern hemisphere and 360 00:25:31,050 --> 00:25:35,290 Speaker 1: the southern hemisphere. That might have serious consequences for the 361 00:25:35,290 --> 00:25:39,730 Speaker 1: Earth's climate. Modeling has shown that if the aerosols were 362 00:25:39,810 --> 00:25:43,650 Speaker 1: to preferentially bunch up in one hemisphere, that actually shifts 363 00:25:43,690 --> 00:25:47,570 Speaker 1: the tropical rainfall patterns into the opposite hemisphere, so you 364 00:25:47,610 --> 00:25:53,210 Speaker 1: would actually create potentially serious droughts. That's one example of 365 00:25:53,250 --> 00:25:57,650 Speaker 1: the sort of thing that could go wrong inadvertently. So 366 00:25:57,730 --> 00:26:00,330 Speaker 1: to put it in the simplest terms, you're saying, we 367 00:26:00,450 --> 00:26:05,450 Speaker 1: could put up aerosols and end up completely surprised by 368 00:26:05,530 --> 00:26:10,850 Speaker 1: the winners and losers in the climate effects of that. Right, So, 369 00:26:10,890 --> 00:26:13,930 Speaker 1: it's hard to guess in advance how particles will distribute 370 00:26:14,050 --> 00:26:17,010 Speaker 1: in the stratosphere. They might cool certain areas of the 371 00:26:17,050 --> 00:26:21,930 Speaker 1: globe but leave others vulnerable to droughts and heat waves. Moreover, 372 00:26:22,690 --> 00:26:26,330 Speaker 1: it's hard to run a local field test. We can't 373 00:26:26,370 --> 00:26:31,810 Speaker 1: just say, okay, we're gonna albedo modify over El Paso, Texas, 374 00:26:32,130 --> 00:26:36,170 Speaker 1: and does El Paso get cooler? And what happens till 375 00:26:36,450 --> 00:26:41,570 Speaker 1: El Paso's rainfall and are there any negative effects of 376 00:26:42,130 --> 00:26:45,170 Speaker 1: sulfur particles falling out of the air or anything. You 377 00:26:45,210 --> 00:26:47,250 Speaker 1: can't do that because once I put it up over 378 00:26:47,330 --> 00:26:51,130 Speaker 1: El Paso, how long before it distributes around the world. 379 00:26:51,450 --> 00:26:55,010 Speaker 1: So most of these injections have to be done near 380 00:26:55,050 --> 00:26:59,890 Speaker 1: the equator because that's the best place for distribution, and 381 00:27:00,250 --> 00:27:06,570 Speaker 1: they very quickly get into these stratospheric currents that distribute them, 382 00:27:07,050 --> 00:27:11,130 Speaker 1: and within two years it's all dissipated, it's all gone, 383 00:27:11,250 --> 00:27:14,650 Speaker 1: It all filters out, So you would have to reinject 384 00:27:14,690 --> 00:27:18,450 Speaker 1: every year to two years. So one thing you can't 385 00:27:18,450 --> 00:27:24,210 Speaker 1: say at least is if you're willing to tolerate a 386 00:27:24,290 --> 00:27:29,250 Speaker 1: global experiment, at least it would go away. Let's pull 387 00:27:29,290 --> 00:27:32,570 Speaker 1: that thread for a second. Suppose somebody were to do 388 00:27:33,610 --> 00:27:37,210 Speaker 1: a global experiment for a couple of years. Now here's 389 00:27:37,330 --> 00:27:40,930 Speaker 1: the issue with doing an experiment, a global experiment on 390 00:27:41,130 --> 00:27:48,050 Speaker 1: albito modification. We have no idea how to attribute whatever 391 00:27:48,170 --> 00:27:52,850 Speaker 1: might happen during those two years to the experiment itself 392 00:27:53,530 --> 00:28:02,850 Speaker 1: versus natural variability in storminess, droughts, floods, whatever. And you 393 00:28:02,890 --> 00:28:07,010 Speaker 1: can be sure anyone who might have been impacted during 394 00:28:07,050 --> 00:28:14,090 Speaker 1: that period by a hurricane, a drought, a flood would say, Bingo, 395 00:28:14,970 --> 00:28:19,050 Speaker 1: you did this experiment and I got flooded out of 396 00:28:19,050 --> 00:28:23,490 Speaker 1: my house, or I had a hurricane take out my barn, 397 00:28:24,130 --> 00:28:28,690 Speaker 1: or I had a drought that wiped out my herd 398 00:28:28,730 --> 00:28:32,530 Speaker 1: of cattle. You owe me. There'd be lawsuits all over 399 00:28:32,610 --> 00:28:34,730 Speaker 1: the place. There would be lawsuits all over the place, 400 00:28:35,490 --> 00:28:39,170 Speaker 1: And who's going to indemnify the person who does the 401 00:28:39,250 --> 00:28:43,730 Speaker 1: experiment against the lawsuits. Do you think there's any insurance 402 00:28:43,770 --> 00:28:50,130 Speaker 1: company that wants to take on that policy? Chapter five 403 00:28:51,050 --> 00:28:56,770 Speaker 1: The Big Balloon. Despite the challenges, David Keith wants to 404 00:28:56,850 --> 00:29:01,930 Speaker 1: try an experiment, a very small experiment. He's working with 405 00:29:01,970 --> 00:29:05,810 Speaker 1: a team at Harvard on a project called scopex. So 406 00:29:05,930 --> 00:29:09,930 Speaker 1: Scopex is about trying to improve our models of the 407 00:29:09,970 --> 00:29:14,650 Speaker 1: way stratospheric aerosols and chemistry work in little ways that 408 00:29:14,690 --> 00:29:18,330 Speaker 1: are relevant for improving understanding of the risks and efficacy 409 00:29:18,330 --> 00:29:21,170 Speaker 1: of solar geno engineering. Keith and his colleagues want to 410 00:29:21,210 --> 00:29:26,010 Speaker 1: send the balloon carrying particles high into the atmosphere, puff 411 00:29:26,090 --> 00:29:29,650 Speaker 1: them out, and see how they disperse and reflect sunlight. 412 00:29:30,170 --> 00:29:31,970 Speaker 1: How big is this balloon? Just give me a picture. 413 00:29:32,090 --> 00:29:36,050 Speaker 1: Balloons are like twenty meters diameter, rough sixty foot wide 414 00:29:36,090 --> 00:29:38,890 Speaker 1: balloons going up. And what's attached to the balloon we're 415 00:29:38,930 --> 00:29:41,690 Speaker 1: building the balloon gondola still what you call it. The 416 00:29:41,730 --> 00:29:44,130 Speaker 1: gondola has two little propellers that are more to kind 417 00:29:44,170 --> 00:29:47,370 Speaker 1: of move it around slowly, and it has our data system. 418 00:29:47,370 --> 00:29:51,210 Speaker 1: It has the batteries to run, It has the thing 419 00:29:51,210 --> 00:29:53,810 Speaker 1: that generates the particles it has a particle sensor to 420 00:29:53,810 --> 00:29:56,450 Speaker 1: measure the particle size distribution, and the whole thing is 421 00:29:56,450 --> 00:29:58,530 Speaker 1: on a winch, so it can winch itself up and 422 00:29:58,530 --> 00:30:00,810 Speaker 1: down with alter to the balloon, so the balloon will 423 00:30:00,850 --> 00:30:04,610 Speaker 1: spray particles and then right around measuring how they disperse. 424 00:30:05,410 --> 00:30:07,530 Speaker 1: The amount of material the team is going to release 425 00:30:07,930 --> 00:30:11,330 Speaker 1: is actually tiny, a kilogram or something, which for the 426 00:30:11,370 --> 00:30:13,570 Speaker 1: sake of argument, that turns out to be the bound 427 00:30:13,610 --> 00:30:16,530 Speaker 1: of sulfur that a commercial aircraft you would normally fly, 428 00:30:16,610 --> 00:30:19,610 Speaker 1: and releases it about a minute's flight. While it's physical 429 00:30:19,650 --> 00:30:23,530 Speaker 1: cargo is tiny, the balloon also carries with it a 430 00:30:23,570 --> 00:30:28,890 Speaker 1: lot of questions about regulations, scientific knowledge, symbolic value, and 431 00:30:29,090 --> 00:30:34,010 Speaker 1: possible political misuse. While there's no serious scientific case that 432 00:30:34,170 --> 00:30:38,370 Speaker 1: spraying a kilogram of particles can cause any physical harm, 433 00:30:38,930 --> 00:30:43,490 Speaker 1: some people still think it's very dangerous. There's a group 434 00:30:43,530 --> 00:30:46,330 Speaker 1: of people, and by high quality pulling, we know this 435 00:30:46,370 --> 00:30:49,370 Speaker 1: group of people is like a third of Americans who 436 00:30:49,370 --> 00:30:52,930 Speaker 1: believe that the government is already spraying toxic chemicals from 437 00:30:52,970 --> 00:30:59,130 Speaker 1: airplanes for mass murder or climateguzation or something. And so 438 00:30:59,170 --> 00:31:03,170 Speaker 1: those people have conflated that with some of the scientific 439 00:31:03,250 --> 00:31:05,450 Speaker 1: work on solar gena sharing, so when they google around 440 00:31:05,530 --> 00:31:08,010 Speaker 1: or there's lots of sites that will have me as 441 00:31:08,050 --> 00:31:11,330 Speaker 1: a mass murder. I once got a voicemail. My favorite 442 00:31:11,370 --> 00:31:14,610 Speaker 1: one that my kids enjoyed a lot, was a voicemail 443 00:31:14,650 --> 00:31:17,530 Speaker 1: that said that I was ten million times more evil 444 00:31:17,570 --> 00:31:19,650 Speaker 1: than Hitler and Stalin. And then it's not quite clear 445 00:31:19,690 --> 00:31:23,010 Speaker 1: if the gentleman is saying that it's combined or separately. 446 00:31:23,850 --> 00:31:27,770 Speaker 1: But it's not just conspiracy theorists. Even some of David 447 00:31:27,850 --> 00:31:32,170 Speaker 1: Keith's friends, like Ray pr Humbard or opposed to scopex. 448 00:31:33,250 --> 00:31:35,490 Speaker 1: It is actually one of the joys of science that, 449 00:31:35,530 --> 00:31:39,770 Speaker 1: at least among scientists, you can have very vehement professional 450 00:31:39,930 --> 00:31:45,970 Speaker 1: disagreements and still remain on good terms. What's really funny is, 451 00:31:46,010 --> 00:31:49,010 Speaker 1: at least from my perspective, I have huge respect for Ray, 452 00:31:49,090 --> 00:31:52,890 Speaker 1: both scientifically actually as a human. There's an article, the 453 00:31:52,930 --> 00:31:55,170 Speaker 1: most recent article he wrote, which is actually the most 454 00:31:55,210 --> 00:31:57,930 Speaker 1: personal and attacking me. It was like attacking the Harvard program. 455 00:31:57,970 --> 00:31:59,370 Speaker 1: I forget exactly what it said, but it was like 456 00:31:59,450 --> 00:32:04,090 Speaker 1: pretty direct, you know, both smoke and barrels aimed my way. 457 00:32:04,410 --> 00:32:06,890 Speaker 1: That was published just a few weeks after I had 458 00:32:06,930 --> 00:32:09,370 Speaker 1: a wonderful dinner with him and his wife actually visited 459 00:32:09,490 --> 00:32:14,210 Speaker 1: him in Cambridge, Oxford, and we talked about exoplants, and 460 00:32:14,250 --> 00:32:16,730 Speaker 1: we talked about American politics, and we mostly actually avoided 461 00:32:16,770 --> 00:32:19,850 Speaker 1: talking about this topic. We know we disagree. I don't 462 00:32:19,890 --> 00:32:22,690 Speaker 1: imagine that David would pay any attention to what advice 463 00:32:23,250 --> 00:32:25,410 Speaker 1: I gave him, but I would advise him to just 464 00:32:25,890 --> 00:32:30,730 Speaker 1: drop scopex. Ray has multiple objections. On the one hand, 465 00:32:31,050 --> 00:32:34,850 Speaker 1: the experiment is too small. Releasing a few particles won't 466 00:32:34,890 --> 00:32:39,050 Speaker 1: teach us anything important about the large scale planetary processes 467 00:32:39,330 --> 00:32:43,090 Speaker 1: that would matter most. I still lean towards calling them 468 00:32:43,330 --> 00:32:46,850 Speaker 1: stunts and that while they have some scientific payback, they 469 00:32:46,890 --> 00:32:50,610 Speaker 1: don't really address the biggest questions we have. You can't 470 00:32:50,850 --> 00:32:54,010 Speaker 1: do that with just a puff experiment. If you really 471 00:32:54,050 --> 00:32:57,930 Speaker 1: want to resolve some of the questions, that are going 472 00:32:57,970 --> 00:33:00,490 Speaker 1: to be a maker break thing for what would happen 473 00:33:00,570 --> 00:33:04,170 Speaker 1: if you deployed Albiedo modification. There are a hundred other 474 00:33:04,210 --> 00:33:07,610 Speaker 1: things that are more important scientifically. On the other hand, 475 00:33:08,250 --> 00:33:11,250 Speaker 1: Ray is concerned that the experiment will open the door 476 00:33:11,330 --> 00:33:15,410 Speaker 1: to ever larger solar geo engineering efforts before there are 477 00:33:15,450 --> 00:33:19,570 Speaker 1: any rules in place. It's the risk that by doing 478 00:33:19,570 --> 00:33:23,810 Speaker 1: a small experiment that crosses a red line. You're opening 479 00:33:23,810 --> 00:33:27,770 Speaker 1: the door to escalation. If you can do a small experiment, well, 480 00:33:27,810 --> 00:33:30,570 Speaker 1: next year someone's going to do a bigger experiment. It 481 00:33:30,810 --> 00:33:33,850 Speaker 1: represents the thin edge of the wedge. What can of 482 00:33:33,930 --> 00:33:38,770 Speaker 1: worms are are you opening? But Ray's biggest concern is 483 00:33:38,810 --> 00:33:43,810 Speaker 1: more fundamental. Solar geo engineering is wildly, howlingly barking mad, 484 00:33:44,130 --> 00:33:51,810 Speaker 1: and no research developments have changed my opinion. One Iota, 485 00:33:52,530 --> 00:33:58,690 Speaker 1: Chapter six, The Sword of Damocles. What makes rayper Humbard 486 00:33:58,930 --> 00:34:04,210 Speaker 1: call solar geo engineering wildly, howlingly barking mad. It boils 487 00:34:04,250 --> 00:34:08,450 Speaker 1: down to two things. First, it doesn't solve the real problem. 488 00:34:09,170 --> 00:34:11,890 Speaker 1: As long as we continue to emit CO two, it 489 00:34:11,970 --> 00:34:16,290 Speaker 1: continues to accumulate in the atmosphere, much of it remains 490 00:34:16,330 --> 00:34:20,690 Speaker 1: for tens of thousands of years, and the greenhouse effect 491 00:34:20,890 --> 00:34:26,010 Speaker 1: keeps increasing. Climate intervention just masks the problem by reflecting 492 00:34:26,010 --> 00:34:29,970 Speaker 1: away sunlight while we keep pumping vast amounts of CO 493 00:34:30,250 --> 00:34:36,770 Speaker 1: two into the air. The second problem is solar geoengineering 494 00:34:37,290 --> 00:34:41,690 Speaker 1: could create a sort of time bomb. My biggest worry, 495 00:34:41,770 --> 00:34:44,930 Speaker 1: in fact, the worry that underpins all my other worries 496 00:34:44,970 --> 00:34:49,490 Speaker 1: about the possibility of deploying albedo modification stems from the 497 00:34:49,570 --> 00:34:54,890 Speaker 1: mismatching time scales. The mismatching time scales is this, while 498 00:34:54,970 --> 00:34:57,290 Speaker 1: much of the CO two sticks around for tens of 499 00:34:57,330 --> 00:35:01,010 Speaker 1: thousands of years, the sulfur particles that would be used 500 00:35:01,010 --> 00:35:05,450 Speaker 1: for geoengineering, they disappear very quickly. They need to be 501 00:35:05,530 --> 00:35:10,050 Speaker 1: replaced every couple of years. You're committee the entire future 502 00:35:10,050 --> 00:35:13,690 Speaker 1: of humanity to doing this essentially forever. When have we 503 00:35:13,770 --> 00:35:18,050 Speaker 1: ever saddled the next one hundred thousand years of civilization? 504 00:35:18,130 --> 00:35:22,930 Speaker 1: If within obligation to do something without fail each and 505 00:35:23,010 --> 00:35:27,410 Speaker 1: every year forever, Essentially, there's no precedent in human history 506 00:35:27,690 --> 00:35:30,730 Speaker 1: if you then stop. If you stop because there's a 507 00:35:30,770 --> 00:35:35,010 Speaker 1: global war, there's a global depression, or disputes over what 508 00:35:35,090 --> 00:35:37,330 Speaker 1: the effect of this is, or you find some horrible 509 00:35:37,690 --> 00:35:40,650 Speaker 1: side effect that you just can't bear. If you stop 510 00:35:40,730 --> 00:35:44,490 Speaker 1: doing this lbedam modification, then within about ten years you 511 00:35:44,530 --> 00:35:46,570 Speaker 1: have nearly the full effect of all the pent up 512 00:35:46,570 --> 00:35:49,090 Speaker 1: warming from that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. That's what 513 00:35:49,090 --> 00:35:52,690 Speaker 1: we call termination shock. Everybody on the planet living under 514 00:35:52,730 --> 00:35:56,050 Speaker 1: the sort of damocles, knowing it could fall at any minute, 515 00:35:57,130 --> 00:36:00,010 Speaker 1: exactly how much pent up warming what depends on how 516 00:36:00,090 --> 00:36:03,890 Speaker 1: much CO two we've allowed to accumulate. A rapid warming 517 00:36:03,890 --> 00:36:07,930 Speaker 1: of two degrees celsius would be bad enough. Rise of 518 00:36:08,170 --> 00:36:12,650 Speaker 1: four degrees see within a decade, making large swaths of 519 00:36:12,690 --> 00:36:17,290 Speaker 1: the planet uninhabitable outdoors most of the year. That would 520 00:36:17,290 --> 00:36:21,410 Speaker 1: be catastrophic. I asked Ray if he thought solar geo 521 00:36:21,450 --> 00:36:26,090 Speaker 1: engineering would ever make sense. The only scenario is if 522 00:36:26,090 --> 00:36:31,730 Speaker 1: you actually had already committed to getting to zero carbon 523 00:36:31,770 --> 00:36:36,330 Speaker 1: dioxide emissions in a reasonably short window of time, or 524 00:36:36,370 --> 00:36:40,690 Speaker 1: if you had developed technology for removing carbon dioxide from 525 00:36:40,730 --> 00:36:43,850 Speaker 1: the atmosphere. In other words, if we had largely solved 526 00:36:43,850 --> 00:36:45,650 Speaker 1: the problem and only had to buy a little bit 527 00:36:45,650 --> 00:36:49,650 Speaker 1: of time. Unfortunately, we're not on target to get to 528 00:36:49,730 --> 00:36:53,010 Speaker 1: zero net emissions, and we're very far from having affordable 529 00:36:53,050 --> 00:37:02,130 Speaker 1: technologies for carbon capture from the atmosphere. Chapter seven, Climate Wars. 530 00:37:03,770 --> 00:37:08,090 Speaker 1: If the climate crisis continues to deepen, who would decide 531 00:37:08,210 --> 00:37:12,210 Speaker 1: whether and when to deploy solar jew engineering? Would United 532 00:37:12,330 --> 00:37:17,690 Speaker 1: Nations try to forge a global consensus, or because it's 533 00:37:17,690 --> 00:37:21,250 Speaker 1: not so expensive, might some nations just try to do 534 00:37:21,290 --> 00:37:23,650 Speaker 1: it on their own. I can imagine some country could 535 00:37:23,650 --> 00:37:27,970 Speaker 1: just start deploying Albita modification just because of their own 536 00:37:28,130 --> 00:37:33,530 Speaker 1: perceived self interest. Imagine a human nation that is seeing 537 00:37:33,570 --> 00:37:39,770 Speaker 1: its elderly people dying from heatstroke. They may think putting 538 00:37:39,770 --> 00:37:41,730 Speaker 1: a bunch of particles up in the air as a 539 00:37:41,770 --> 00:37:45,730 Speaker 1: pretty simple solution to it. And if that means that 540 00:37:45,770 --> 00:37:49,450 Speaker 1: the Canadian wheat harvest fails, well that's their problem. I 541 00:37:49,770 --> 00:37:56,010 Speaker 1: can imagine that conflicts that could arise when nations start 542 00:37:56,330 --> 00:38:02,370 Speaker 1: tinkering with the composition of the stratosphere. I can also 543 00:38:02,410 --> 00:38:07,770 Speaker 1: imagine this launching climate wars because there are quite easy countermeasures. 544 00:38:07,890 --> 00:38:12,050 Speaker 1: The kinds of air craft that would be actually spewing 545 00:38:12,050 --> 00:38:16,610 Speaker 1: out sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. They're slow moving, they're 546 00:38:16,610 --> 00:38:20,890 Speaker 1: easy to target by fairly simple missiles. There are other 547 00:38:20,970 --> 00:38:25,130 Speaker 1: kinds of countermeasures you could think of. For instance, if 548 00:38:25,170 --> 00:38:30,250 Speaker 1: other countries used geoengineering to slow climate change, but Russia 549 00:38:30,610 --> 00:38:33,130 Speaker 1: preferred to let the Earth keep warming because it would 550 00:38:33,170 --> 00:38:38,130 Speaker 1: open the Arctic Ocean year round, Russia could interfere. All 551 00:38:38,170 --> 00:38:42,850 Speaker 1: they'd have to do would be to increase their coal burning, 552 00:38:42,970 --> 00:38:46,690 Speaker 1: increase the CO two to offset the Abito modification. Russia 553 00:38:46,730 --> 00:38:50,370 Speaker 1: could actually even do more harmful things, releasing methane into 554 00:38:50,370 --> 00:38:54,490 Speaker 1: the atmosphere, they could start manufacturing sulfur hexafluoride, which is 555 00:38:54,530 --> 00:38:58,770 Speaker 1: an incredibly potent, long live greenhouse gas. It turns out 556 00:38:58,970 --> 00:39:01,490 Speaker 1: that the fear that countries might start acting on their 557 00:39:01,530 --> 00:39:06,090 Speaker 1: own was the initial inspiration for the National Research Council report. 558 00:39:06,330 --> 00:39:12,530 Speaker 1: The intelligence community was concerned some third party might actually 559 00:39:13,010 --> 00:39:17,330 Speaker 1: get to the point where the climate in their part 560 00:39:17,330 --> 00:39:23,530 Speaker 1: of the world had become intolerable and they would unilaterally 561 00:39:23,810 --> 00:39:32,250 Speaker 1: decide to modify the planet's climate without consulting with anyone. 562 00:39:32,810 --> 00:39:37,570 Speaker 1: Some argue that solar geoengineering is basically ungovernable. If one 563 00:39:37,610 --> 00:39:40,850 Speaker 1: country wants the world slightly warmer and another needs it cooler, 564 00:39:41,650 --> 00:39:45,410 Speaker 1: how could we get a global consensus about who sets 565 00:39:45,450 --> 00:39:52,570 Speaker 1: the thermostat right now? There is no treaty, There is 566 00:39:52,730 --> 00:39:58,850 Speaker 1: no international agreement. There is no government structure that actually 567 00:39:59,010 --> 00:40:06,730 Speaker 1: prevents anyone from intervening in the atmosphere or the stratosphere 568 00:40:07,610 --> 00:40:15,410 Speaker 1: to perform some kind of albedo modification. The Academy has 569 00:40:15,450 --> 00:40:20,130 Speaker 1: a study underway right now that is focusing on the 570 00:40:20,170 --> 00:40:24,130 Speaker 1: governance issue, and hopefully they will come up with some 571 00:40:24,850 --> 00:40:34,250 Speaker 1: good ideas of how to take this forward. Chapter eight Sunrise. 572 00:40:36,730 --> 00:40:39,970 Speaker 1: Given all the problems with solar geo engineering. Why are 573 00:40:40,050 --> 00:40:44,850 Speaker 1: scientists even considering it? The reason is they're beginning to 574 00:40:44,890 --> 00:40:48,530 Speaker 1: feel pretty desperate. While the Paris Climate Treaty aims to 575 00:40:48,610 --> 00:40:51,930 Speaker 1: keep global warming to two degrees c on, our current 576 00:40:51,970 --> 00:40:55,850 Speaker 1: trajectory will blow past that target and may barrel toward 577 00:40:56,250 --> 00:41:01,090 Speaker 1: catastrophic increases. Some feel we better be ready with a 578 00:41:01,330 --> 00:41:05,850 Speaker 1: break glass in case of emergency solution, but a solving 579 00:41:05,850 --> 00:41:09,810 Speaker 1: climate change really hopeless. A lot of young people have 580 00:41:09,890 --> 00:41:13,610 Speaker 1: been rising up lately to demand action. They think the 581 00:41:13,690 --> 00:41:18,770 Speaker 1: answer will require not just science but political pressure. Seventeen 582 00:41:18,850 --> 00:41:23,450 Speaker 1: year old Swedish activists Greta Thunberg recently gained international attention 583 00:41:23,570 --> 00:41:27,090 Speaker 1: for her call for a global climate strike and her 584 00:41:27,130 --> 00:41:32,810 Speaker 1: demands for policy change at the United Nations. People are suffering, 585 00:41:33,610 --> 00:41:39,650 Speaker 1: people are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in 586 00:41:39,690 --> 00:41:43,410 Speaker 1: the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can 587 00:41:43,450 --> 00:41:47,250 Speaker 1: talk about is the money and fairy tales of eaton 588 00:41:47,370 --> 00:41:53,570 Speaker 1: of economic growth. How dare you? In the US, a 589 00:41:53,730 --> 00:41:58,210 Speaker 1: youth led environmental movement has been organizing to pressure politicians 590 00:41:58,330 --> 00:42:10,210 Speaker 1: through sit ins, songs, and communal action. I decided to 591 00:42:10,250 --> 00:42:12,770 Speaker 1: talk to one of the leaders and what's become a 592 00:42:12,890 --> 00:42:17,050 Speaker 1: global movement. My name is Marsheni Prakash. I am one 593 00:42:17,090 --> 00:42:19,410 Speaker 1: of the co founders of and currently serving as the 594 00:42:19,490 --> 00:42:24,850 Speaker 1: executive director for Sunrise Movement, which is organizing tens of 595 00:42:24,930 --> 00:42:28,850 Speaker 1: thousands of people, predominantly young people across this nation to 596 00:42:28,930 --> 00:42:31,210 Speaker 1: make climate action a priority in our nation for the 597 00:42:31,250 --> 00:42:36,250 Speaker 1: first time. So tell me how you got to that point, Like, 598 00:42:36,570 --> 00:42:39,490 Speaker 1: what was your path? I am the child of two 599 00:42:39,530 --> 00:42:42,370 Speaker 1: South Indian immigrants. India as a place that is being 600 00:42:42,850 --> 00:42:46,410 Speaker 1: ravished by the climate crisis, whether it's through drought and 601 00:42:46,450 --> 00:42:51,370 Speaker 1: water wars, or farmers committing suicide by the tens of thousands, 602 00:42:51,490 --> 00:42:57,530 Speaker 1: or climate fueled floods worsening and impacting people. And I 603 00:42:57,570 --> 00:43:02,530 Speaker 1: remember it was like the fall of twenty fifteen when 604 00:43:03,090 --> 00:43:07,250 Speaker 1: a series of really horrific floods hit my families from 605 00:43:07,250 --> 00:43:11,770 Speaker 1: in southern India. And I remember roads and sidewalks that 606 00:43:11,850 --> 00:43:14,450 Speaker 1: I had walked on, that my dad and had grown 607 00:43:14,530 --> 00:43:17,890 Speaker 1: up on, just covered in feet of water and seeing 608 00:43:18,130 --> 00:43:22,130 Speaker 1: dead bodies and people walking chest deep in water for 609 00:43:22,250 --> 00:43:26,650 Speaker 1: miles to sanctuary. And it was this major moment of reckoning, 610 00:43:26,850 --> 00:43:31,410 Speaker 1: of realizing that the climate crisis was here there were 611 00:43:31,410 --> 00:43:33,570 Speaker 1: people dying as a result of it. It wasn't an 612 00:43:33,570 --> 00:43:36,770 Speaker 1: issue thirty forty fifty years in the future, and the 613 00:43:36,810 --> 00:43:41,130 Speaker 1: movements that we had in that moment were not growing 614 00:43:41,490 --> 00:43:43,530 Speaker 1: or weren't as powerful as we needed them to be. 615 00:43:43,610 --> 00:43:46,770 Speaker 1: To address this crisis, Varshini joined a group of young 616 00:43:46,850 --> 00:43:50,970 Speaker 1: climate activists who wanted to drive big change. We embarked 617 00:43:50,970 --> 00:43:54,650 Speaker 1: on this process for almost a year of strategic planning, 618 00:43:55,050 --> 00:43:59,250 Speaker 1: of research, of study, of an assessment of the field, 619 00:43:59,770 --> 00:44:04,690 Speaker 1: studying things like the civil rights movement, queer movements, women's suffrage, 620 00:44:05,290 --> 00:44:08,610 Speaker 1: Vietnam War era movements, and then contemporary movements as well, 621 00:44:08,610 --> 00:44:12,610 Speaker 1: like the movement for Black Lives, Occupy Wall Street, others, 622 00:44:12,730 --> 00:44:16,930 Speaker 1: to see how do people make these grand societal transformations 623 00:44:16,930 --> 00:44:19,690 Speaker 1: that we need to make to stop climate change, and 624 00:44:19,730 --> 00:44:22,890 Speaker 1: how do we emulate that. Out of this work came 625 00:44:23,090 --> 00:44:26,970 Speaker 1: Sunrise Movement, which aims to bring together millions of people, 626 00:44:27,090 --> 00:44:30,370 Speaker 1: especially young people. As you may have heard, they've proposed 627 00:44:30,410 --> 00:44:34,530 Speaker 1: a program called the Green New Deal. One important element 628 00:44:34,570 --> 00:44:37,410 Speaker 1: of the program is funding innovation to drive down the 629 00:44:37,570 --> 00:44:41,010 Speaker 1: cost of renewables to the point where they're cheaper than 630 00:44:41,050 --> 00:44:44,090 Speaker 1: fossil fuels. But the aims of the Green New Deal 631 00:44:44,170 --> 00:44:47,370 Speaker 1: are far more ambitious. It can be thought of as 632 00:44:47,730 --> 00:44:53,450 Speaker 1: a decade long economic mobilization really to stop climate change 633 00:44:53,730 --> 00:44:57,370 Speaker 1: at a scale not seen since World War Two. Everything 634 00:44:57,530 --> 00:45:03,210 Speaker 1: from stopping climate change to creating tens of millions of good, 635 00:45:03,730 --> 00:45:08,330 Speaker 1: high paying jobs, virtually eliminating poverty in the process. Everything 636 00:45:08,410 --> 00:45:15,090 Speaker 1: from addressing agriculture systems to industry, to power generation and 637 00:45:15,490 --> 00:45:18,930 Speaker 1: land use, forestry, everything under the sun that we would 638 00:45:18,930 --> 00:45:22,370 Speaker 1: need to deploy to address the crisis. It won't be 639 00:45:22,570 --> 00:45:25,090 Speaker 1: just one piece of legislation, and it was the same 640 00:45:25,130 --> 00:45:27,130 Speaker 1: way with a New Deal. It wasn't There wasn't a 641 00:45:27,170 --> 00:45:31,530 Speaker 1: New Deal bill. There were hundreds of bills and projects 642 00:45:31,570 --> 00:45:36,090 Speaker 1: that FDR and others implemented. They were really embracing this 643 00:45:36,570 --> 00:45:40,530 Speaker 1: ethos of experimentation, of doing whatever it takes to get 644 00:45:40,570 --> 00:45:44,010 Speaker 1: Americans out of the Great Depression and put money back 645 00:45:44,010 --> 00:45:47,050 Speaker 1: in the pockets of working people. The Green New Deal 646 00:45:47,130 --> 00:45:50,130 Speaker 1: resolution is more of a framework than a specific piece 647 00:45:50,130 --> 00:45:54,290 Speaker 1: of legislation at this point. Still, the idea has prompted 648 00:45:54,290 --> 00:46:00,050 Speaker 1: a range of concerns. Climate change deniers belittle it. They 649 00:46:00,090 --> 00:46:04,010 Speaker 1: want to take your pickup truck, they want to rebuild 650 00:46:04,050 --> 00:46:07,370 Speaker 1: your home, they want to take away your hamburgers. This 651 00:46:07,530 --> 00:46:12,490 Speaker 1: is what Stalin dreamed about but never achieved. Many scientists 652 00:46:12,490 --> 00:46:16,490 Speaker 1: and economists view achieving carbon neutrality within ten years as 653 00:46:16,530 --> 00:46:20,010 Speaker 1: a pipe dream given the slow rate at which power 654 00:46:20,050 --> 00:46:24,170 Speaker 1: plants are replaced. Others think it's trying to do too 655 00:46:24,250 --> 00:46:28,210 Speaker 1: much solve climate change, poverty, and racial injustice all at 656 00:46:28,210 --> 00:46:32,610 Speaker 1: the same time. But maybe the Sunrisers are onto something 657 00:46:32,810 --> 00:46:36,850 Speaker 1: very important in the way they're building a coalition packaging 658 00:46:36,850 --> 00:46:41,250 Speaker 1: them as one thing. This sounds sort of counterintuitive to 659 00:46:41,290 --> 00:46:45,170 Speaker 1: some people, but it actually makes it more popular. The 660 00:46:45,330 --> 00:46:47,530 Speaker 1: parts of the Green New Deal that are the most 661 00:46:47,610 --> 00:46:51,810 Speaker 1: popular are the parts around job creation, are the investments 662 00:46:51,850 --> 00:46:56,970 Speaker 1: and sustainable agriculture and renewable energy technology for shiny. Contrasted, 663 00:46:57,050 --> 00:47:01,730 Speaker 1: the Sunrise movements approach to previous climate change legislation efforts 664 00:47:02,090 --> 00:47:05,010 Speaker 1: like the Waxman Marquee Bill in two thousand and nine, 665 00:47:05,530 --> 00:47:10,010 Speaker 1: the last forty years of focusing on just like a 666 00:47:11,010 --> 00:47:14,530 Speaker 1: singular tax or a singular cap and trade model, or 667 00:47:14,570 --> 00:47:20,970 Speaker 1: something that people cannot understand as making basic improvements to 668 00:47:21,050 --> 00:47:24,050 Speaker 1: their lives. That's why a lot of the reason why 669 00:47:24,050 --> 00:47:28,090 Speaker 1: Waxman Marquis failed in the Senate ten years ago, because 670 00:47:28,770 --> 00:47:32,210 Speaker 1: there wasn't the public will and the public support. She 671 00:47:32,330 --> 00:47:35,210 Speaker 1: talked to Senator Marky, who sponsored both the two thousand 672 00:47:35,210 --> 00:47:38,370 Speaker 1: and nine bill and now the Green New Deal Resolution. 673 00:47:38,530 --> 00:47:40,490 Speaker 1: I asked him, what is the major difference that you 674 00:47:40,530 --> 00:47:44,250 Speaker 1: are seeing in twenty nineteen versus two thousand and nine, 675 00:47:44,610 --> 00:47:47,570 Speaker 1: and he said, the number one difference, and what we 676 00:47:47,610 --> 00:47:50,610 Speaker 1: need so badly is that we actually have an army 677 00:47:50,650 --> 00:47:55,090 Speaker 1: of people out there pushing for these solutions. I asked 678 00:47:55,130 --> 00:47:59,330 Speaker 1: Marsha McNutt what she thought about Sunrise movement. I love it. 679 00:47:59,490 --> 00:48:02,810 Speaker 1: I think it's critical. I mean, if it's not going 680 00:48:02,890 --> 00:48:09,570 Speaker 1: to be that generation, then who they're the ones that 681 00:48:09,810 --> 00:48:13,050 Speaker 1: are going to still be alive in twenty fifty. It's 682 00:48:13,050 --> 00:48:16,370 Speaker 1: not going to be me, and it's going to be 683 00:48:16,490 --> 00:48:21,330 Speaker 1: their children that are going to be alive in twenty 684 00:48:21,330 --> 00:48:26,650 Speaker 1: one hundred that are going to be inheriting this parched earth. 685 00:48:27,290 --> 00:48:32,250 Speaker 1: It's incredibly important that they stand up and say no, 686 00:48:32,770 --> 00:48:36,770 Speaker 1: this is not their trajectory that I want for the planet. 687 00:48:37,170 --> 00:48:43,290 Speaker 1: And when politicians vote with a two year time horizon 688 00:48:43,690 --> 00:48:46,770 Speaker 1: in their mind, or if they vote special interest groups 689 00:48:46,850 --> 00:48:52,850 Speaker 1: who are looking only at their corporation one year ROI, 690 00:48:53,930 --> 00:48:57,850 Speaker 1: that is absolutely criminal. So What would you say to 691 00:48:57,890 --> 00:49:01,970 Speaker 1: the people in the Sunrise movement? What encouragement or message 692 00:49:01,970 --> 00:49:05,090 Speaker 1: would you say to them? I would say, they are 693 00:49:05,250 --> 00:49:08,050 Speaker 1: just like the people who stood up to the Vietnam 694 00:49:08,090 --> 00:49:13,490 Speaker 1: War and every other injustice. You know, this is an 695 00:49:13,530 --> 00:49:18,530 Speaker 1: injustice to all of humanity. So, after talking with Varsheni 696 00:49:18,610 --> 00:49:21,570 Speaker 1: about Sunrise Movement, I asked her whether she and her 697 00:49:21,570 --> 00:49:25,770 Speaker 1: fellow activists thought solar geo engineering might be an important 698 00:49:25,810 --> 00:49:31,570 Speaker 1: tool in addressing climate change. She was unconvinced, regarding the 699 00:49:31,570 --> 00:49:36,490 Speaker 1: technology as a distraction from solving the real problem. If 700 00:49:36,490 --> 00:49:40,610 Speaker 1: the issue is decarbonizing and the long term problem is 701 00:49:40,650 --> 00:49:44,130 Speaker 1: taking carbon out of the atmosphere, things like geo engineering 702 00:49:44,170 --> 00:49:47,050 Speaker 1: don't even do that. But and so, don't get me wrong. 703 00:49:47,090 --> 00:49:51,370 Speaker 1: I understand the desperation, I understand the urgency. I understand 704 00:49:51,410 --> 00:49:54,490 Speaker 1: that we need to kick everything into high gear. But 705 00:49:54,610 --> 00:49:58,290 Speaker 1: I think we are putting carbon into the atmosphere. Perhaps 706 00:49:58,290 --> 00:50:01,450 Speaker 1: the easiest fix that we have is to stop putting 707 00:50:01,450 --> 00:50:13,250 Speaker 1: carbon into the atmosphere. Chapter nine, The Moral Hazard. I 708 00:50:13,330 --> 00:50:17,170 Speaker 1: understand why climate change activists want to stay laser focused 709 00:50:17,250 --> 00:50:21,130 Speaker 1: on decarbonizing the world's energy supply, But at the same time, 710 00:50:21,210 --> 00:50:24,130 Speaker 1: is there any harm in also having climate intervention as 711 00:50:24,170 --> 00:50:29,330 Speaker 1: a backup. Unfortunately, the answer is there might well be. 712 00:50:30,450 --> 00:50:34,090 Speaker 1: Some people worry that pursuing solar geo engineering and parallel 713 00:50:34,810 --> 00:50:37,290 Speaker 1: might actually make it harder to get the world to 714 00:50:37,330 --> 00:50:41,570 Speaker 1: solve climate change. Humans tend to address problems only when 715 00:50:41,610 --> 00:50:45,890 Speaker 1: they feel the consequences, such as heat waves, wildfires, floods, 716 00:50:45,930 --> 00:50:50,930 Speaker 1: and hurricanes. If blocking the sun decreases natural disasters caused 717 00:50:50,970 --> 00:50:55,450 Speaker 1: by global warming, will we become complacent about solving the 718 00:50:55,530 --> 00:50:58,850 Speaker 1: real problem. It's like taking a painkiller instead of actually 719 00:50:58,930 --> 00:51:02,570 Speaker 1: having the cancer taken out. Eliminating one of the symptoms 720 00:51:02,730 --> 00:51:05,450 Speaker 1: of carbon dioxide emission, which is the planet getting warmer, 721 00:51:05,730 --> 00:51:08,610 Speaker 1: makes it easier to ignore the root cause of the 722 00:51:08,610 --> 00:51:12,690 Speaker 1: problem just continue emitting. This is what economists call the 723 00:51:12,850 --> 00:51:16,290 Speaker 1: moral hazard problem, the idea of the people who have 724 00:51:16,370 --> 00:51:22,410 Speaker 1: insurance against disasters aren't as careful about avoiding risks. For example, 725 00:51:22,450 --> 00:51:26,410 Speaker 1: because the government provides flood insurance for homes on floodplains, 726 00:51:26,850 --> 00:51:30,650 Speaker 1: homeowners are more willing to keep rebuilding their flooded homes 727 00:51:30,650 --> 00:51:34,530 Speaker 1: on the same sites. But David Keith is worried about 728 00:51:34,610 --> 00:51:39,090 Speaker 1: something even more insidious that the mere prospect of solar 729 00:51:39,170 --> 00:51:42,490 Speaker 1: jew engineering will be used as a political weapon to 730 00:51:42,530 --> 00:51:46,730 Speaker 1: deny the need to act on climate change. At the 731 00:51:46,770 --> 00:51:49,010 Speaker 1: beginning of this episode, I noted that some of the 732 00:51:49,050 --> 00:51:53,570 Speaker 1: greatest enthusiasm and congress for solar jew engineering has come 733 00:51:53,650 --> 00:51:59,170 Speaker 1: from climate change deniers. That's certainly no accident. People are 734 00:51:59,330 --> 00:52:02,370 Speaker 1: terrified that if these ideas get out more in the 735 00:52:02,410 --> 00:52:05,570 Speaker 1: big world, that they will be seized upon by opponents 736 00:52:05,570 --> 00:52:08,730 Speaker 1: of climate action, by oil companies, by people who want 737 00:52:08,730 --> 00:52:12,210 Speaker 1: to walk emission scots. Those people will claim falsely that 738 00:52:12,330 --> 00:52:14,770 Speaker 1: solo genissioning means we don't need to kind emissions, or 739 00:52:14,770 --> 00:52:16,570 Speaker 1: that it may mean we don't have kind emissions, and 740 00:52:16,610 --> 00:52:20,090 Speaker 1: they'll use that in the bruising political fight over emission scots. 741 00:52:20,130 --> 00:52:23,170 Speaker 1: That is the underlying, I think biggest fear, and sure, 742 00:52:23,530 --> 00:52:25,370 Speaker 1: of course it's a complete lygim I fear. I'm terrified 743 00:52:25,370 --> 00:52:28,250 Speaker 1: about it. The certainty that they will try and use 744 00:52:28,290 --> 00:52:31,050 Speaker 1: it as an argument is there, but that doesn't mean 745 00:52:31,090 --> 00:52:34,210 Speaker 1: that necessarily humanity will do less emission scots, and in 746 00:52:34,210 --> 00:52:36,130 Speaker 1: the end, those of us who want emission scouts just 747 00:52:36,250 --> 00:52:39,410 Speaker 1: have to win on the merits. Although David Keith is 748 00:52:39,490 --> 00:52:43,450 Speaker 1: certain his work will be misused by some politicians, he 749 00:52:43,490 --> 00:52:47,370 Speaker 1: believes it's essential to do the research. I still think 750 00:52:48,050 --> 00:52:50,570 Speaker 1: that that fear is not a reason not to know more. 751 00:52:51,730 --> 00:52:54,130 Speaker 1: You may think, or summon your audience to this podcast, 752 00:52:54,170 --> 00:52:56,610 Speaker 1: may think the solo Regeniastoni is a terrible idea and 753 00:52:56,730 --> 00:52:59,650 Speaker 1: never should be done. Others may think it really could 754 00:52:59,730 --> 00:53:02,010 Speaker 1: be part of the way we manage climate change. But 755 00:53:02,170 --> 00:53:04,570 Speaker 1: let me let you all out there and podcast land 756 00:53:04,610 --> 00:53:07,250 Speaker 1: in on a big secret. We're not deciding now whether 757 00:53:07,370 --> 00:53:10,010 Speaker 1: or not this happens. We're decide whether we give the 758 00:53:10,050 --> 00:53:14,290 Speaker 1: next generation realistic information. If we keep the taboo going, 759 00:53:14,850 --> 00:53:18,570 Speaker 1: then we'll hand them basically no information. So sometime the 760 00:53:18,570 --> 00:53:22,810 Speaker 1: next decades, some government, maybe the Chinese government after their 761 00:53:22,890 --> 00:53:26,810 Speaker 1: monsoon fails, maybe the US government after a massive Category 762 00:53:26,890 --> 00:53:29,450 Speaker 1: five his New York, maybe the Indonesian government after a 763 00:53:29,450 --> 00:53:32,250 Speaker 1: big heatwave that kills a quarter million. Some government is 764 00:53:32,250 --> 00:53:35,210 Speaker 1: going to seriously consider this. And my view is that 765 00:53:35,250 --> 00:53:38,130 Speaker 1: we'd be better to give them lots of knowledge before 766 00:53:38,170 --> 00:53:42,770 Speaker 1: they consider it. But Raypierre Humbard doesn't buy it. So 767 00:53:43,050 --> 00:53:45,570 Speaker 1: David likes to make the case that if we don't 768 00:53:45,570 --> 00:53:47,770 Speaker 1: do these experiments, will just be giving the gift of 769 00:53:47,810 --> 00:53:51,970 Speaker 1: ignorance to the future. But sometimes the gift of ignorance 770 00:53:52,090 --> 00:53:55,210 Speaker 1: is a precious gift, and so we have to decide 771 00:53:55,250 --> 00:53:58,170 Speaker 1: first whether this is a case where the gift of 772 00:53:58,370 --> 00:54:02,490 Speaker 1: ignorance is precious or a burden. I think if it 773 00:54:02,530 --> 00:54:05,570 Speaker 1: had been possible to actually give the gift of ignorance 774 00:54:05,610 --> 00:54:09,490 Speaker 1: about horrible things like nerve gas, if we're dingle to 775 00:54:09,490 --> 00:54:12,690 Speaker 1: have the gift of ignorance about building hydrogen bombs, whether 776 00:54:12,810 --> 00:54:14,490 Speaker 1: or not that would have been feasible or not, that 777 00:54:14,530 --> 00:54:17,010 Speaker 1: would have been a nice kind of ignorance to have. 778 00:54:17,290 --> 00:54:21,090 Speaker 1: And again I'm not saying that necessarily albedo modification is 779 00:54:21,090 --> 00:54:23,810 Speaker 1: in the same category as these things, but someone has 780 00:54:23,850 --> 00:54:26,290 Speaker 1: to make that judgment, and it has to be made 781 00:54:25,970 --> 00:54:29,610 Speaker 1: by civil society in some way. So where do you 782 00:54:29,690 --> 00:54:32,610 Speaker 1: draw the line. I think that it would be impractical 783 00:54:32,890 --> 00:54:36,730 Speaker 1: to have any form of governments that forbid computer experimentation. 784 00:54:37,290 --> 00:54:41,650 Speaker 1: But when it comes to stuff kit gear, either a 785 00:54:41,730 --> 00:54:47,330 Speaker 1: lab experiment, but especially outdoor experimentation, actually stuffing things into 786 00:54:47,370 --> 00:54:49,490 Speaker 1: the atmosphere, even on a small scale, there is a 787 00:54:49,570 --> 00:54:52,730 Speaker 1: kind of a clear line there, and so that's where 788 00:54:52,810 --> 00:54:54,890 Speaker 1: I think there needs to be some kind of discussion. 789 00:54:55,730 --> 00:54:58,650 Speaker 1: Is this a red line worth crossing? Is the scientific 790 00:54:58,690 --> 00:55:06,810 Speaker 1: payback enough to actually justify crossing this red line conclusion. 791 00:55:07,410 --> 00:55:18,330 Speaker 1: Choose your planet. So there you have it, solar geoengineering. 792 00:55:19,290 --> 00:55:23,290 Speaker 1: It could cool the planet at least on average. It 793 00:55:23,410 --> 00:55:28,290 Speaker 1: might buy time and mitigate suffering, but its precise impacts 794 00:55:28,330 --> 00:55:32,890 Speaker 1: would be uneven and unpredictable, and it's very hard to test. 795 00:55:33,650 --> 00:55:37,170 Speaker 1: There could be big winners and losers. It could even 796 00:55:37,290 --> 00:55:42,210 Speaker 1: trigger climate wars. If we choose climate intervention, we might 797 00:55:42,370 --> 00:55:46,530 Speaker 1: end up addictive for thousands of years, threatened with rapid, 798 00:55:46,730 --> 00:55:51,370 Speaker 1: massive temperature increases if we ever stopped. If we don't 799 00:55:51,450 --> 00:55:55,690 Speaker 1: consider climate intervention, we might find ourselves without options as 800 00:55:55,730 --> 00:56:00,930 Speaker 1: temperatures keep rising in the decades ahead. Should we start 801 00:56:00,970 --> 00:56:04,130 Speaker 1: experimenting now so that we'll know enough to be ready 802 00:56:05,010 --> 00:56:08,450 Speaker 1: or is it a distraction or even worse, a gift 803 00:56:08,730 --> 00:56:12,330 Speaker 1: to climate change deniers who'll use the prospect of solar 804 00:56:12,410 --> 00:56:15,370 Speaker 1: geo engineering to keep us from solving the real problem. 805 00:56:16,210 --> 00:56:20,090 Speaker 1: So the question is what can you do a lot? 806 00:56:20,130 --> 00:56:23,250 Speaker 1: It turns out you don't have to be an expert, 807 00:56:23,290 --> 00:56:26,410 Speaker 1: and you don't have to do it alone. If enough 808 00:56:26,410 --> 00:56:31,050 Speaker 1: people get engaged together, we will make wise choices. Invite 809 00:56:31,090 --> 00:56:34,050 Speaker 1: friends over for dinner and debate about what we should do, 810 00:56:34,570 --> 00:56:37,330 Speaker 1: or organize a conversation for a book club or a 811 00:56:37,370 --> 00:56:40,530 Speaker 1: faith group, or a campus event online of course for 812 00:56:40,650 --> 00:56:44,970 Speaker 1: now in person, when it's safe. And if you hate 813 00:56:45,370 --> 00:56:49,010 Speaker 1: having to consider these choices about solar geo engineering, then 814 00:56:49,090 --> 00:56:52,130 Speaker 1: join a group to help stop climate change before it's 815 00:56:52,170 --> 00:56:55,810 Speaker 1: too late. You can find lots of resources and ideas 816 00:56:55,850 --> 00:57:00,410 Speaker 1: at our website Brave New Planet dot org. It's time 817 00:57:00,810 --> 00:57:05,050 Speaker 1: to choose our planet. The future is up to us, 818 00:57:07,490 --> 00:57:10,210 Speaker 1: and my kids still debate when I'm their dad, is 819 00:57:10,210 --> 00:57:12,730 Speaker 1: more evil than Hitler and Stalin or Hitler and Stalin combined. 820 00:57:13,090 --> 00:57:17,090 Speaker 1: That's good to know what the family debates. That's fascinating. 821 00:57:22,250 --> 00:57:24,410 Speaker 1: Brave New Planet is a co production of the Broad 822 00:57:24,490 --> 00:57:28,050 Speaker 1: Institute of MT and Harvard Pushkin Industries in the Boston Globe, 823 00:57:28,570 --> 00:57:32,010 Speaker 1: with support from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. Our show 824 00:57:32,090 --> 00:57:35,810 Speaker 1: is produced by Rebecca Lee Douglas with Mary Doo theme 825 00:57:35,850 --> 00:57:39,850 Speaker 1: song composed by Ned Porter, mastering and sound designed by 826 00:57:39,930 --> 00:57:43,890 Speaker 1: James Garver, fact checking by Joseph Fridman, and a Stitt 827 00:57:43,890 --> 00:57:48,530 Speaker 1: and Enchant special Thanks to Christine Heenan and Rachel Roberts 828 00:57:48,530 --> 00:57:53,050 Speaker 1: at Clarendon Communications. To Lee McGuire, Kristen Zarelli and Justine 829 00:57:53,090 --> 00:57:56,330 Speaker 1: Levin Allerhand at the Broad, to mil Lobell and Heather 830 00:57:56,450 --> 00:58:00,530 Speaker 1: Faine at Pushkin, and to Eli and Edy Brode who 831 00:58:00,570 --> 00:58:04,610 Speaker 1: made the Broad Institute possible. This is brave new planet. 832 00:58:05,170 --> 00:58:10,210 Speaker 1: I'm Eric Lander. Two