1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:05,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action awesome. 2 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 1: All right, here we go. We're growing in Joe. I'm 3 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: saying it's a catch touch down. We'll see most gamblers 4 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 1: when they go to gamble, they go to win. That's incredible. 5 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 1: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right. 6 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 1: This is the ultimate kabine you want to pack and 7 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: we are underway. 8 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 2: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. We are presented by 9 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:39,240 Speaker 2: our friends at bet MGM, the King of sports books, 10 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:43,240 Speaker 2: Brendan glas Sheen in the host chair, joined today by 11 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 2: Jill Gallant, and I think you might know what that means, folks. 12 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 2: We are in the month of August and we are 13 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 2: approaching the twenty twenty four NFL regular season. Yes, we 14 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 2: are here for our Anytime Touchdown Manifesto episode. Jill, this 15 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 2: is your third year contributing at Action Network. This is 16 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:04,399 Speaker 2: your baby, this is your It's near and dear to 17 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:07,960 Speaker 2: your heart. Betting touchdowns. It's what excites people when they 18 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 2: put on NFL Red Zone every Sunday or even the 19 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 2: primetime spots Thursdays and Mondays. So introduction I don't think 20 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 2: is necessarily needed, But what's exciting you about this coming year? 21 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:21,760 Speaker 2: And maybe what you've learned in these first couple of 22 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 2: years from doing this with Action Network for sure. 23 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 1: And I think, Brendan, I think we have to highlight 24 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:30,479 Speaker 1: that this is the most fun type of bet to make. 25 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 1: I think it's the most fun bet that's ever existed 26 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:37,479 Speaker 1: because it combines the fantasy element that we love. I'm 27 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:39,399 Speaker 1: sure there's a lot of people who are sports betting. 28 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 1: They started off in playing fantasy football, but then again 29 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:46,200 Speaker 1: just that euphoric rush when you're able to predict the guy, 30 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 1: maybe a long shot or something like that that comes through. Now. 31 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 1: The one thing I will say is if you've been 32 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 1: if you're new to betting, you know, or you've been 33 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 1: doing it for a while, you know. I've got some guidelines. 34 00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: This show today, Brendan, is more about how not how 35 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 1: we're going to make people rich, but more about how 36 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 1: we make sure you don't go broke, especially betting on 37 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 1: anytime touchdowns, because they're so fun that it can sometimes 38 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:09,919 Speaker 1: maybe get a little out of control, maybe bleed your bankroll. 39 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 1: So these are some tips and things that I've learned 40 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 1: over the last three to five years that have helped 41 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 1: me maintain and make sure that I don't go broke 42 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 1: and still have a lot of fun betting this bet type. 43 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:21,520 Speaker 2: Well said, So the next twenty five minutes, we're going 44 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 2: to rip through Jill's do's and don't good data versus 45 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 2: bad data, and how you can find edges in the market, 46 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 2: especially after we get through those first couple of weeks, 47 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 2: because the market does change on a week two week basis, 48 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 2: and that introduces a whole variety of topics. And I'm 49 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:39,800 Speaker 2: sure folks that have tuned into our preseason pods leading 50 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 2: into the NFL season, it could be depth chart changes, 51 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:46,800 Speaker 2: whether it be a quarterback, running back, receiver, injuries that 52 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:48,640 Speaker 2: pop up throughout the course of the year, a dude 53 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 2: that just keeps getting bet on because they just keep 54 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 2: on scoring, whether it be a Christian McCaffrey for example, 55 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 2: or going back previous years to a Jonathan Taylor or 56 00:02:56,919 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 2: an Austin Eckler, just going back through the time the 57 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:03,519 Speaker 2: time sphere there. So let's start with your what is 58 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:06,359 Speaker 2: your first and most important role? Sir? 59 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 1: Okay, so Golash, we're both company men. I think it's 60 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 1: there to say that you've got to use the Action 61 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 1: Network app because the most important thing you need to 62 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:21,360 Speaker 1: do is track your wins and losses. Because the average 63 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 1: win rate for people who are betting on anytime touchdowns, 64 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 1: especially straights, so not parlays, just betting straight bets, usually 65 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 1: it hovers around between thirty two to thirty five percent. 66 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 1: That's usually the top one percent of successful betters in 67 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 1: this market. I mean, it could be anywhere, but it 68 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 1: could be as low as obviously zero percent because it's 69 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 1: such a volatile market. There's a lot of swings, there's 70 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 1: good luck, there's bad luck. And to ensure you're not 71 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 1: overextending yourself and want to see that overall profitability, it's 72 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:52,760 Speaker 1: important to track your wins and losses to see the 73 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 1: successes and failures. You know, to know if you need 74 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 1: to adapt your strategy. And I mean maybe your old 75 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 1: school and maybe you want to use pen and paper 76 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 1: or Google sheet or spreadsheet. I don't care, but you've 77 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 1: got to track your bets, use something, and the Action 78 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:08,880 Speaker 1: app will help you do that. Being able to track 79 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 1: your anytime touchdown bets to see where the successes or 80 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 1: failures are happening. 81 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 2: General rule of thumb too, as we move on. So 82 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:18,600 Speaker 2: it's a great call out Action Network app free to download. 83 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:21,279 Speaker 2: It's an award winning app. It's very helpful, especially for 84 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:24,840 Speaker 2: a market like this. And that introduces the topic of 85 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 2: you know, I know that I don't I'm not calling 86 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 2: out anyone specifically, and I think folks at Action do 87 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 2: a really good job at this. I really believe that 88 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 2: Nick Giffen is someone who comes to mind, and Brandon Anderson, 89 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 2: who does a lot of NBA and NFL, you know 90 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 2: the hell who gives a shit about the record right, 91 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:45,239 Speaker 2: And you can't sink your teeth into record record watching, 92 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:48,719 Speaker 2: especially on your Twitters and your Instagrams and TikTok whatever 93 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 2: it may be. But it's important to understand the profitability 94 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:56,359 Speaker 2: of this market. That you could win thirty three percent, 95 00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 2: call it, of your bets on a touchdown on touch 96 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 2: downs over the course of a two week period. Why 97 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 2: explain to the viewer and the listener as to why 98 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 2: that You gotta you gotta let that not seep in 99 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:09,440 Speaker 2: your brain. 100 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:13,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean profits that ROI are king. That's way 101 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: more important than win percentage and win percentage. 102 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 2: That and that and that sounds obvious, right, but it's important. 103 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:22,040 Speaker 2: I think folks see a record and that that that 104 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:22,840 Speaker 2: that sticks with them. 105 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:25,159 Speaker 1: But it should well I think, Brendan, you bring up 106 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:27,640 Speaker 1: a good point because again, the floor of education for 107 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:30,800 Speaker 1: the average recreational better I think is much higher now 108 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,279 Speaker 1: than say when we first did this podcast Begause a 109 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:36,040 Speaker 1: couple of years ago. But you'll still go on a 110 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:39,040 Speaker 1: social media whether it be Instagram or Twitter or x 111 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 1: and you'll see these accounts on socials like I'm hitting 112 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 1: seventy percent of my bets, but they downplayed the juice. 113 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 1: It could be like a loaded minus three hundred money line. 114 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 1: You see that a lot right now with baseball as well, 115 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 1: with those kind of money lines. But that's the beauty 116 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:54,800 Speaker 1: of touchdown props because Brennan, on any given Sunday, there's 117 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 1: three hundred or more anytime touchdown props and they all 118 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 1: range from minus one fifty to plus four thousand. And 119 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 1: then there's other touchdown angles. You could be looking at 120 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:07,120 Speaker 1: first touchdown, last touchdown, first team touchdown. You could pick 121 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: the first touchdown and the second touchdown consecutively. Like there's 122 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 1: so many different markets. But that's the key thing is 123 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:15,799 Speaker 1: that because a lot of these markets have those longer 124 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 1: odds compared to like spreads and totals, which are usually 125 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 1: minus one ten there's a bit more forgiveness and margin 126 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: for error, which means that you can invest less for 127 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:27,280 Speaker 1: a higher return, which means that you don't necessarily have 128 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:29,720 Speaker 1: to over expose your bank roll just to be able 129 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:31,279 Speaker 1: to participate in this market. 130 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:34,600 Speaker 2: You hinted at this a moment ago, and this introduces 131 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:37,200 Speaker 2: another rule of thumb of yours, which is there are 132 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 2: some pitfalls to betting this market, right. What might some 133 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 2: of those be? 134 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 1: Well? I think the first one, dude, is just being 135 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 1: realistic and managing your expectations. Because every year, I mean 136 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,840 Speaker 1: right now, training camps going, we're getting namped to see 137 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 1: NFL coming up here. But every year we get into 138 00:06:57,040 --> 00:06:59,599 Speaker 1: the first week of September and almost every better feels 139 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: like they're going to hit one hundred percent of their bets. 140 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 1: They have this uninhibited confidence, like Uncle Rico Napoleon dynamite 141 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 1: type of confidence, or like maybe on the level of 142 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 1: singing hot in here for karaoke in a packbar or 143 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 1: something like that. 144 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 2: But it's great. 145 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 1: So again, there's just highs and lows, and that's a 146 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 1: general sports betting, but it's especially important to note for 147 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 1: touchdown betting because you got to keep that even keel 148 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 1: Trusting your process is crucial because if you do lose, 149 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 1: you can't just rip it up and start over. You've 150 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 1: got to be able to follow the path that you've 151 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 1: laid out for yourself, and I think these realistic expectations. 152 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: Then you can properly celebrate the wins when they occur. 153 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 1: Because that's the one thing too, is sometimes you'll you'll 154 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 1: be on a little bit of a losing streak and 155 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 1: you hit one and it almost you almost feel numb 156 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 1: to it. You don't even care that you won because 157 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 1: you're still hung up on a bet that you lost 158 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: yesterday kind of thing. So again another tip, very common 159 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 1: sense stuff, but this is just goes for average betters, 160 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 1: but even touchdown betters. You got to have a clear mind. 161 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 1: So if it means you got to exercise and editate, 162 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 1: I mean gold side, touch grass, get some air in 163 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 1: your face, get away from the devices, I don't care, 164 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 1: eat a healthy meal. But don't let the losses from 165 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 1: these props shake your confidence because that negativity just breeds 166 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 1: more negativity and it could actually make you a little 167 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 1: bit more hesitant on betting on something that you might 168 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 1: see an obvious edge for. 169 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:24,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, and more specifically like so minus odds touchdown score. 170 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 2: So I throw a couple names at you over the 171 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 2: last couple of years, like Jonathan Taylor a few years 172 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 2: ago when he was in the MVP conversation. I know, 173 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 2: I know, Christian McCaffrey's banged up. That is fresh news. 174 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 2: He's probably gonna miss the preseason, which is not really 175 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 2: a surprise. Sean McVay has kind of set the tone 176 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:43,319 Speaker 2: on dude's key offensive pieces not playing in to yep, right, 177 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 2: and Shanahan has echoed those same kind of trends. So, 178 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:53,559 Speaker 2: so yes, you're right in terms of a not letting 179 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:57,839 Speaker 2: a bad weekend affect you in the long term speak 180 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 2: specifically to uh, just minus odd touchdown guys, And that's 181 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 2: probably more of a thing as we get deeper into 182 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:06,960 Speaker 2: the year when there's consistency from a certain player, whether 183 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 2: it be a receiver or running back, maybe sometimes a 184 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 2: goal line quarterback like your Josh Allens or your Jalen Hurts. 185 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,440 Speaker 2: But why that has to be monitored very carefully the 186 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 2: minus odds touchdown guys. 187 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:20,360 Speaker 1: Well, specifically for overall profitability for the year. I think 188 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 1: you bring up a good example, which is Christian McCaffrey, 189 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 1: because last year, he finished with twenty one touchdowns scored 190 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 1: in thirteen of the sixteen regular season games, had minus 191 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 1: odds for every game and sometimes we reported that on 192 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: social on action network dot com. All the time he 193 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 1: was upwards of like minus three p fifty to score, 194 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 1: which was the highest odds to score a touchdown. 195 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:43,840 Speaker 2: Even in like playoff games. 196 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:47,080 Speaker 1: It was absolutely well and I mean he did score, 197 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:50,080 Speaker 1: so again it depends on their viewpoint, right, but the 198 00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 1: two of the weeks that he didn't score, he was 199 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 1: around minus three forty, dude. And when you actually look 200 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:58,079 Speaker 1: at the full scope of the year. For somebody like 201 00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:00,840 Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey, who is the reigning and f offensive Player 202 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 1: of the Year, scored the most touchdowns in the NFL 203 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,400 Speaker 1: last year, he ended up finishing total for the year. 204 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:08,080 Speaker 1: If you had bet one unit on Christian McCaffrey every week, 205 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 1: you would have made about three point four units in profit, 206 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 1: which is not bad. It's better than obviously having minus 207 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:16,160 Speaker 1: units like the way that like Travis Kelsey was last year. 208 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 1: But this is the raigning NFL Offensive Player of the 209 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:21,520 Speaker 1: Year where people are going to immediately gravitate to and 210 00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 1: want to bet him. And when you look at the 211 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 1: full scope of the league. Christian McCaffrey was ninety third 212 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:32,080 Speaker 1: overall in any time touchdown profits, third on his own team, 213 00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:35,320 Speaker 1: behind Ronnie Bell rookie Ronnie Bell entering his second year, 214 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 1: and Juice Kyle us Check the fullback. So then when 215 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 1: you look at the ninety three guys, so Christian McCaffrey 216 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 1: was just ahead of Tyreek Hill for overall profits and 217 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 1: do you know who finished ahead of both of them, 218 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:53,319 Speaker 1: Former Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis at three point eight 219 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: units for the year. That means that you could have 220 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: blindly bet Gabe Davis each week for one unit and 221 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 1: may mad more money than the top two finishers for 222 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 1: the NFL Offensive Player of the Year. That's how shifty 223 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:08,200 Speaker 1: anytime touchdowns are in a sense that you don't necessarily 224 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: want to gravitate to the guys who are the front 225 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:14,679 Speaker 1: facing guys of their team or their league. And one 226 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 1: of the things that's a little different too about minus odds. 227 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:19,560 Speaker 1: So I'm still in the camp that we need to 228 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 1: avoid betting on anytime touchdown props at minus odds. But 229 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 1: the twenty twenty three season, dude actually had a big 230 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 1: swing on these because in each of the last three years, 231 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:32,240 Speaker 1: the average for anytime touchdowns at minus odds is around 232 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 1: forty eight percent, but twenty twenty three saw a huge spike. 233 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:40,079 Speaker 1: It went up to fifty four point six percent on 234 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:43,080 Speaker 1: that and so there was about a six percent swing 235 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:45,320 Speaker 1: from twenty twenty two to twenty twenty three. So that 236 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 1: immediately made me think, Okay, there's something going on here. 237 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:49,839 Speaker 1: We have to look into this, and so why did 238 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:52,120 Speaker 1: it happen? A big part of it is based on 239 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 1: the odds that I've tracked. Sportsbooks are slowly reducing the 240 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 1: edges on these props, and defenses have also somewhat become 241 00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 1: predictable in their weaknesses. So two teams, one team that 242 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey played twice, which would be the Seattle Seahawks 243 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 1: and the Carolina Panthers. They were the two worst teams 244 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:12,559 Speaker 1: versus the run last year in twenty twenty three allowed 245 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:16,480 Speaker 1: the most rushing touchdowns twenty four and twenty five. When 246 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:18,600 Speaker 1: I looked at their matchups of who they played throughout 247 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 1: the year, each team saw a running back with minus 248 00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 1: odds in fifteen of their eighteen games, and that running 249 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 1: back scored in at least thirteen of eighteen games, So 250 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 1: that means that ten percent of all minus odds touchdown 251 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 1: scores were scored on those two teams. So that's why 252 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 1: it's kind of wild that it's like, Okay, the defensive 253 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:41,880 Speaker 1: weaknesses are now being emphasized even more where it used 254 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 1: to be so obvious that you would almost avoid it. 255 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 1: Now last year, for example, that might have been a 256 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 1: one off example, but last year that was actually working 257 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 1: out four betters. Now I'm still again of the camp 258 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 1: that you want to avoid minus odds on touchdowns because 259 00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:58,760 Speaker 1: if you just use the analogy of let's say a 260 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 1: minus odds touchdown scorer is minus one ten, you're already 261 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:04,000 Speaker 1: giving up nearly a two percent edge before you even 262 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:07,280 Speaker 1: place the bet, and the edge for the sportsbook gets 263 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 1: your edge rather versus the sportsbook only gets worse as 264 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 1: the number goes higher to minus one fifty or minus 265 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 1: one seventy five. And because sportsbooks aren't offering a no 266 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:21,040 Speaker 1: touchdown option, you're kind of in a spot where you 267 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 1: kind of have to avoid it, right, And there's just 268 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 1: so much more value elsewhere for touchdown scores that I 269 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 1: just think betters in general, especially recreational betters, should just 270 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: not even get caught up in betting favorites for any 271 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:32,719 Speaker 1: time touchdowns. 272 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 2: Okay, that's really good stuff. I think. I think that 273 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:38,480 Speaker 2: really serves the listener because I think that's what's staring 274 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 2: them in the face, whether it be a primetime spot 275 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 2: featuring a McCaffrey or a big time back on a 276 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:47,199 Speaker 2: really good team. But yeah, I think that's a really 277 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:52,120 Speaker 2: good specific example as to what enters people's minds going 278 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 2: into a given slate or just a given Thursday Monday situation. 279 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 2: So how to help people and avoid these types of things. 280 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 2: You have a couple of suggestions as far as comparison 281 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 2: tools and historical data, which again that's going to be 282 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 2: you can look through a spectrum of years or a 283 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 2: number of weeks when we're into the thick, into the 284 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:13,840 Speaker 2: weeds of the season. 285 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:16,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think those two things are important. But 286 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:20,280 Speaker 1: I wanted to touch on parlaying touchdown bets before we 287 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 1: talk about those two things, because in the betting space 288 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:27,680 Speaker 1: right now, parlays it's only growing as far as popularity goes, 289 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 1: and if people aren't careful, they can really over extend 290 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 1: themselves financially. And this one might ruffle some feathers, but 291 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 1: you almost have to treat parlays kind of like junk food, 292 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 1: Like it's okay for a treat, but it can't be 293 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 1: your whole diet. Like if you're betting touchdown scores, you 294 00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 1: got to keep parlays to a minimum with lower state. 295 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 1: That's why I created a nice content series this past year. 296 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 1: It's a little fun parlay game called the one to 297 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:54,320 Speaker 1: eighty Challenge, And this is where I bet ten dollars 298 00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 1: on a parlay of eighteen or one or better each 299 00:14:56,680 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 1: week of the regular season, and if you hit one week, 300 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:01,520 Speaker 1: you're pretty much with house money because you make all 301 00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 1: your money back. And if you do don't hit at 302 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:08,200 Speaker 1: all throughout the eighteen weeks, which obviously would be unfortunate, 303 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 1: but you're only down one hundred and eighty dollars for 304 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:13,640 Speaker 1: the season, so you and you still get to responsibly 305 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 1: scratch that parlay itch because for example, this series that 306 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 1: I did last year, I ended up hitting one, but 307 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 1: I didn't hit it until week seventeen. It's because touchdown 308 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:26,520 Speaker 1: bets are super volatile, because any player can leave the 309 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 1: game on any play, and there's just so many random 310 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 1: injuries where my parlay would just fall short. One leg 311 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 1: and I just wanted to give people advice of saying, 312 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 1: just save yourself the heartbreak of a losing parlay from injury. 313 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 1: Don't invest big money into touchdown parlays. 314 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 2: The irony of Week seventeen too, is that's right before 315 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 2: you get into that Week eighteen where starters are sitting 316 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:53,160 Speaker 2: or a team is in a situation where they're trying 317 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:56,960 Speaker 2: to get a better draft pick. So you were hanging 318 00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 2: on the edge of your seat there and it delivered 319 00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 2: for you right before that caaotic Week eighteen. 320 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 1: But those tools that you brought up about odds comparison 321 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 1: tools or even an odds screen in general are so 322 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 1: important when vetting on anytime touchdowns, and because the odds 323 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 1: just very heavily from sportsbook to sportsbook. And the best 324 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 1: player I use as an example of that is backup 325 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 1: quarterback Taysom Hill with the New Orleans Saints. He has 326 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 1: the goal line scoring capability, he has the red zone 327 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 1: carries enough where you would almost think that's worthy of 328 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:30,840 Speaker 1: a running back two on a team. But his anytime 329 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 1: touchdown odds can range from plus two point fifty to 330 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 1: plus five hundred on a given week, depending on the 331 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 1: sports books. So another suggestion one of the best ways 332 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 1: to compare odds is using the Action app, where you 333 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 1: can use an anytime touchdown odds comparison tool helps you 334 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 1: just quickly compare the odds between sports books and being 335 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:51,080 Speaker 1: able to find that best value and using the Action 336 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 1: app and having multiple sports book accounts, this will ensure 337 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 1: you get the best odds and really can make a 338 00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:58,520 Speaker 1: difference for those long term profits. 339 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 2: At the end of the year, we need our next 340 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 2: Taysom Hill. He had a guy in the on deck circle, 341 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 2: or at least. 342 00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 1: I mean that was Josh Allen last year. Dude like 343 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:08,359 Speaker 1: Josh Allen ended up being almost eleven or partly almost 344 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:10,880 Speaker 1: twelve units in profit last year because he just went 345 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:13,679 Speaker 1: on a run from that Eagles game against the Bills 346 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,640 Speaker 1: onward where he was essentially their primary running back where 347 00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:18,800 Speaker 1: he might as well have been in that Taysom Hill role, 348 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,639 Speaker 1: but you were never getting him at those varied odds 349 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:24,040 Speaker 1: the way that Taysom Hill is so yeah, But at 350 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:27,200 Speaker 1: the same time, if they ever unleashed Taysom, you're gonna 351 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 1: see his odds drop significantly because when that guy gets 352 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 1: inside the goal line, inside the five, he is near 353 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 1: impossible to Stop. 354 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:36,159 Speaker 2: The Action Network podcast Everybody's Brought to You by bet 355 00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:38,679 Speaker 2: MGM used the bonus code action when signing up to 356 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 2: get up to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus bets 357 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:43,720 Speaker 2: if your first bet does not win. For new users 358 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 2: in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 359 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 2: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, 360 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,720 Speaker 2: and Wyoming. Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one 361 00:17:56,720 --> 00:18:01,880 Speaker 2: plus gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler really important 362 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 2: talking point and everything so far has been valuable. But 363 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:09,480 Speaker 2: deciphering good data versus bad. 364 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:13,679 Speaker 1: Data, Yeah, box score context is key. I imagine you 365 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 1: even know this is doing play by play, Like you 366 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 1: can't just look at a box score from the previous 367 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:19,240 Speaker 1: two games and be able to feel like you know 368 00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: what's going to happen in this third game and be 369 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:25,439 Speaker 1: able to emphasize on certain points. And not all stats 370 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:27,679 Speaker 1: are created equal, like, of course, if you're betting a 371 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:31,840 Speaker 1: wide receiver anytime touchdown prop traditional stats like targets, receptions, 372 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:35,120 Speaker 1: and snap councilors are important, but there's other data out 373 00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:38,240 Speaker 1: there now that is accessible that can really impact your bets. 374 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 1: So being able to see how defenses are just what 375 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 1: kind of defenses are they running. Are they running a 376 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 1: lot of man coverage? Are they running a lot of 377 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 1: zone coverage? How does that skill player fare against man 378 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:52,359 Speaker 1: coverage or zone coverage? What's the route participation? Are they 379 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:54,359 Speaker 1: just out there blocking the whole time? Are they actually 380 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:58,360 Speaker 1: running routes? How a defensive position does from a Dvoway 381 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 1: perspective or even cornerback matchups. You can find these data 382 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:05,639 Speaker 1: points online now and these are very impactful. And then 383 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 1: there's other times Brendan Man where you got to just 384 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:09,440 Speaker 1: use the eye tests and it might be as just 385 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:12,360 Speaker 1: as simple as who's throwing the damn ball. Like, for example, 386 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 1: I love jef's wide receiver, Garrett Wilson, amazing wide receiver. 387 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 1: You fourth in the NFL last year, one hundred and 388 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,680 Speaker 1: sixty eight targets, had more red zone targets than a J. 389 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 1: Brown or Mike Evans. But he had Zach Wilson and 390 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:29,359 Speaker 1: Trevor Semyon throwing that ball. And that's just awful quarterbacks 391 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:30,920 Speaker 1: to be able to count on to get the ball 392 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,639 Speaker 1: to the wide receiver, and books just feasted off of 393 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:37,399 Speaker 1: that better mindset of he's due, or look at the 394 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,680 Speaker 1: targets we have to bet them, and all the metrics 395 00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 1: and odds lined up like near the end of the 396 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 1: point of the season, I mean, he was upwards. This 397 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 1: is a wide receiver one Brendan over plus three hundred 398 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 1: to score a touchdown, and I still wouldn't have touched 399 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 1: him because Zach Wilson is probably the worst starting quarterback 400 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:55,919 Speaker 1: I've seen since Nathan Peterman. I don't really know if 401 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:59,120 Speaker 1: there's another one that really rivals that. Maybe Mac Jones 402 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 1: there at the first six weeks of last season. Sorry 403 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:03,720 Speaker 1: to stick the dagger, then it's okay. 404 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:07,199 Speaker 2: Our audio director is also on this particular call, that 405 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 2: Nathan Peterman thing I'm sure hits. It's it's slow. The 406 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:11,080 Speaker 2: slow knife is twisting. 407 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:15,359 Speaker 1: And so that's the one thing is that the data 408 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:19,000 Speaker 1: is perfect in that sense that you would need to 409 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 1: consider all of those different things. But then another strategy, 410 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:24,919 Speaker 1: and this is so the data is important, but another 411 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 1: strategy what I tell for new betters or recreational betters 412 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,879 Speaker 1: is do kind of what you would do is making 413 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:33,679 Speaker 1: like your own model. So what I would do is 414 00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 1: take like, take Ravens Chiefs opening game of the year, 415 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:39,639 Speaker 1: take the fifteen guys that you think are going to 416 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 1: be there for any time touchdown odds, and write down 417 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 1: what you think should be there anytime touchdown odds. And 418 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:46,200 Speaker 1: this way you could be able to see if you're 419 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:49,480 Speaker 1: close to market, far off market, and just to see 420 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 1: kind of where your instinct is going, and then you 421 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:54,679 Speaker 1: could start to set up with kind of an expected 422 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 1: odds model. So, for example, if you had expected odds 423 00:20:57,359 --> 00:21:00,480 Speaker 1: at minus one twenty for Josh Allen to score a 424 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,600 Speaker 1: touchdown or a coin flip, but then you see that 425 00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 1: the anytime touchdown ods are around plus one fifty and 426 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,440 Speaker 1: your research is lining up from the data. I'm never 427 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 1: going to knock that kind of bet, especially where you're 428 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 1: being able to get better value on that perspective. But 429 00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 1: on the flip side, if you have expected odds at 430 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 1: plus one fifty and it's even odds or plus one ten, 431 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 1: don't try and force it. Like that's the main thing 432 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 1: that people will do is that they'll just be like, 433 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:26,720 Speaker 1: but I want to bet on Josh Allen to score 434 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,199 Speaker 1: a touchdown, It's like you don't have to. And this 435 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 1: is especially important for primetime games where the initial odds 436 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 1: releases by sportsbooks are heavily skewed towards the popular players, 437 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,200 Speaker 1: and that means that you're likely betting into a bad 438 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:42,480 Speaker 1: number and not maximizing profitability. So if you have an 439 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,919 Speaker 1: odds cut off or an expected odds model in that front, 440 00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:47,879 Speaker 1: it could at least put your mind at ease about 441 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,879 Speaker 1: maybe having fomo for not placing the bet, because I 442 00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 1: think that's what a lot of people happen, is that 443 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,119 Speaker 1: there are certain games in the middle of the season, 444 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:57,960 Speaker 1: on like a Thursday, that if this wasn't an NFL game, 445 00:21:58,040 --> 00:21:59,440 Speaker 1: you probably wouldn't be betting. 446 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:02,000 Speaker 2: It right now, just for shits and gigs. I mean, 447 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:05,639 Speaker 2: Derek Henry, Lamar Jackson featured in that game. That's fascinating, right, 448 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 2: That's something you're gonna be eyeing all year now. Who 449 00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:09,919 Speaker 2: knows how much Henry's got left, but playing with Lamar, 450 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:12,600 Speaker 2: how does that eat into Lamar? Or does Lamar eat 451 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,240 Speaker 2: into Henry? I mean, that's I wish we had the 452 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:16,359 Speaker 2: market out now, but we don't. 453 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 1: But well, I'm interesting to see it because generally Lamar 454 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 1: has never been over plus one pin fifty to score 455 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 1: in any time touchdown because of the capability that he 456 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 1: has now. But again, there's only so many touchdowns to 457 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:28,639 Speaker 1: go around, right, And a lot of the time these 458 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,399 Speaker 1: sportsbooks price the game as if there's going to be 459 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,959 Speaker 1: six seven touchdowns scored, and then we see a twenty 460 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 1: two to fourteen game, like you know what I mean. 461 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 1: Like it's just sometimes a lot of the time those 462 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:42,240 Speaker 1: odds aren't representing what we're actually probably going to see 463 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 1: on the field. But I do expect Dereck Henry, especially 464 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,400 Speaker 1: in that offense, if he's healthy, he will be routinely 465 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 1: minus ods. 466 00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 2: Okay, that's the uh you use that example. He brought 467 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 2: up that game that is the opener Baltimore Ravens at 468 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 2: the reigning champs, the Kansas City Chiefs. The total in 469 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 2: that game is at forty seven or close to forty seven, 470 00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 2: So that reflects that there will be there will be 471 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:04,200 Speaker 2: some scoring, we think. So you mentioned the odds cut off. 472 00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:06,159 Speaker 2: That's a good note. When we hit on that earlier 473 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:11,200 Speaker 2: about minus sod touchdown guys recency bias, which this really 474 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,719 Speaker 2: as the kind of mentioned a few times now and 475 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:17,679 Speaker 2: you have too. Once we get into the year and 476 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,080 Speaker 2: there's a little bit there's some trends and this goes 477 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 2: back to good data versus bad data. But how does 478 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 2: recency bias? How can it help the better? How does 479 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:27,720 Speaker 2: it hurt the better? 480 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:32,639 Speaker 1: Yeah, so you almost have to treat each game, especially 481 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:36,600 Speaker 1: primetime games, like it's new week, new game, new day, 482 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 1: and sometimes even like new teams because they'll have a 483 00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:41,960 Speaker 1: new quarterback out there that you haven't really factored in 484 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 1: of how they're played. 485 00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:47,240 Speaker 2: Or you know, mentioning Josh Allen a coordinator change that, Yeah, 486 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:49,800 Speaker 2: the whole scheme is changing, and not to mention this 487 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,280 Speaker 2: year with that Buffalo team with the new with Noe 488 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 2: Stefan Diggs, how the receivers play out. But yeah, that 489 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:57,159 Speaker 2: was a big talking point last year and they made 490 00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:58,760 Speaker 2: the change of coordinator and how they're going to commit 491 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 2: to running the football, and that was. 492 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,280 Speaker 1: A big reason why they were able to make that 493 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,959 Speaker 1: push for the playoffs because they completely put the offense 494 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,880 Speaker 1: in Josh Allen's hands or specifically legs, and every time 495 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,040 Speaker 1: they got to the goal line, James Cook, even though 496 00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:13,080 Speaker 1: he was priced at plus one pint forty, would not 497 00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:15,160 Speaker 1: get a sniff of a red zone carry. It would 498 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:18,560 Speaker 1: usually be Josh Allen putting it home for you. But 499 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:20,880 Speaker 1: the reason why I say the recency bias is that 500 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:24,320 Speaker 1: each game needs to almost be treated off as like 501 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 1: like a one off event like because if you carry 502 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 1: too much from the previous week and that recency bias, 503 00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:31,879 Speaker 1: you might just end up being too passive as a 504 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,320 Speaker 1: result when there's an obvious edge. And there's a two 505 00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:38,960 Speaker 1: week sample that is the perfect example of the recency bias, 506 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,480 Speaker 1: and that was with the Las Vegas Raiders. The game 507 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 1: in particular that I'm referring to had a pretty low total, 508 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,879 Speaker 1: some pretty inviting anytime touchdown nods, and that was Raiders 509 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:53,199 Speaker 1: versus Vikings in week fourteen, three and a half. This 510 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,680 Speaker 1: is correct, and I ended up betting just I didn't 511 00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,399 Speaker 1: already like the game. It was already two third string quarterbacks. 512 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,239 Speaker 1: I wasn't a bit fan of the game, so I 513 00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,960 Speaker 1: only bet two touchdown bets each at a half unit. 514 00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:07,000 Speaker 1: So Jacoby Myers a plus three fifty TJ. Hawkins in 515 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 1: a plus two to forty, And as you just alluded to, 516 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:13,239 Speaker 1: that game finished three nothing and it felt awful. You 517 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,840 Speaker 1: talk about the mind games and making sure that you 518 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,520 Speaker 1: don't beat yourself up for it in the moment, it 519 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,640 Speaker 1: felt like the Raiders were the worst offense in football. 520 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:23,960 Speaker 1: I wasn't sure they were going to score another touchdown 521 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,119 Speaker 1: the rest of the year. The next week it's Chargers Raiders, 522 00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:29,639 Speaker 1: and we're probably in two third string quarterbacks. It's a 523 00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,639 Speaker 1: total of thirty eight and a half. Well, Jacoby Myers, 524 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:34,800 Speaker 1: I bet him again. He scores in the first quarter 525 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:39,160 Speaker 1: and the Raiders go on to score sixty three friggin points. 526 00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:43,920 Speaker 1: Like everybody just went nuts in that game. And yeah, 527 00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 1: I mean, the Chargers are the Chargers. They might be 528 00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,119 Speaker 1: a little bit better this year with Harbaugh now at coaching, 529 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 1: but yeah, like it was just one of those things 530 00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:53,920 Speaker 1: where you would think that the Raiders would never score 531 00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:56,879 Speaker 1: another touchdown again, and they end up scoring I believe 532 00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 1: that they had forty points at halftime, ended up finishing 533 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,960 Speaker 1: with sixty three. So that's the one reason why I'm 534 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:05,159 Speaker 1: saying is don't let your process get completely shifted just 535 00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:09,280 Speaker 1: because of one bad week, because again, the NFL new week, 536 00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:12,639 Speaker 1: new day, and sometimes in this in these cases, new teams. 537 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:16,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, man, and that I think you might relate to 538 00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:18,840 Speaker 2: this that's very fresh and maybe a lot of listeners 539 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 2: minds too, because it's featured in that Receiver documentary with 540 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:22,240 Speaker 2: DeVante Adams. 541 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,040 Speaker 1: It's kind of what brought it brought it to my attention. Yeah, 542 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,040 Speaker 1: I was watching it a couple weeks ago on vacation. 543 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 1: I was like, oh my god, I cannot believe sixty 544 00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:31,800 Speaker 1: six points over two weeks, and sixty three of them 545 00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:32,960 Speaker 1: we're scored in one. 546 00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 2: Game now and Pierce was Antonio Pierce was the head 547 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,359 Speaker 2: coach in both of those games, and Mere White was 548 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 2: the starting back with Josh Jacobs out, or maybe it 549 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:41,760 Speaker 2: was a week later that it might have been that 550 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:44,879 Speaker 2: very game that that Charger game where that where Jacobs 551 00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:46,720 Speaker 2: missed the rest of the year and White was the 552 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:47,360 Speaker 2: featured back. 553 00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:48,400 Speaker 1: But it goes. 554 00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,720 Speaker 2: It gets your mind thinking about all these particular things 555 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,720 Speaker 2: about good data, bad data, how routes are being run, 556 00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,080 Speaker 2: so where you can go into a week and think, hey, well, 557 00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:59,080 Speaker 2: Jacoby Myers, he hasn't scored in a couple weeks, but 558 00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:03,520 Speaker 2: he's running the routes he's running against that Chargers defense. 559 00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 2: It checks a lot of boxes and you've got to 560 00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 2: be able to check boxes on both sides, and that's 561 00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,040 Speaker 2: where you find your edges. Okay, very good, but. 562 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:13,760 Speaker 1: That's what happens, though, Brendan, is that you could still 563 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,280 Speaker 1: feel like you have all the edges, the odds line up, 564 00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:19,040 Speaker 1: the stats line up, everything is great, and then they 565 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:20,920 Speaker 1: get hurt on the second play of the game. Aaron 566 00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,040 Speaker 1: Rodgers like, you know, it's just not for the faint 567 00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 1: of heart. You'll lose a lot if you get tilted 568 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 1: from a loss. You're probably betting too much, or you're 569 00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,760 Speaker 1: just not being realistic with yourself. Again, going back to 570 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 1: the top of setting proper expectations, and again some games 571 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:37,159 Speaker 1: just don't work out. I mean, even the best NFL 572 00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:40,320 Speaker 1: offense is only average just around three and a half 573 00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:43,280 Speaker 1: touchdowns per games. So the fact that right now that 574 00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,080 Speaker 1: a lot of the time these sportsbooks are pricing it 575 00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:47,080 Speaker 1: is if there's going to be six to eight touchdowns 576 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,399 Speaker 1: in a game, I don't think they're fully factoring in. 577 00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:51,320 Speaker 1: And a lot of it is betting action that will 578 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,120 Speaker 1: move those odds and whatnot. So keep your emotions in check. 579 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 1: Don't get too high, but don't get too low. Most importantly, 580 00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:00,400 Speaker 1: we're all here to have fun. Let's have some fun, 581 00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:02,159 Speaker 1: but let's not go broke doing it. 582 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:05,639 Speaker 2: My last thought too, I've been plugging this Netflix stock. 583 00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:07,960 Speaker 2: But the insight and I realized it was after the 584 00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,840 Speaker 2: season that folks are seeing this. But the insight they 585 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,720 Speaker 2: gave on the injuries to your debo Samuels and then Adams, 586 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,800 Speaker 2: those are two that struck me like injuries in game. 587 00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:19,880 Speaker 2: I know Jefferson and Saint Brown had some stuff going 588 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:23,119 Speaker 2: on earlier in the year, but wow. It also just 589 00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,000 Speaker 2: the accessibility now to information, and that speaks to your 590 00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:29,240 Speaker 2: earlier point about the books are just sharper now with 591 00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,119 Speaker 2: these markets. The better I think is more educated and smarter. 592 00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,000 Speaker 2: And maybe folks that are tuning in have never done 593 00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,359 Speaker 2: this particular market before and are new to the whole 594 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:41,239 Speaker 2: betting thing in the first place. But yeah, I mean, 595 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:42,800 Speaker 2: and that's an obvious when I think when it comes 596 00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 2: to good data, bad data follow injury news right each 597 00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:49,600 Speaker 2: week and TEP chart changes and whatnot. Okay, Joe Glot, 598 00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 2: where can people find you? Of course they can find 599 00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:54,800 Speaker 2: you and follow you in the Action Network app, But 600 00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 2: what else do you have going on as this once 601 00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:58,520 Speaker 2: the season gets going here? 602 00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:01,920 Speaker 1: Of course? So season three of The Touchdown Show is 603 00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:04,760 Speaker 1: coming again for week one all the way to the 604 00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:07,400 Speaker 1: super Bowl. It's going to be each NFL Sunday at 605 00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:10,000 Speaker 1: eleven thirty am Eastern is part of the Action Network 606 00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:12,480 Speaker 1: Power Hour. We're going to cover the latest odds for 607 00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:15,320 Speaker 1: anytime touchdowns, give us some best bets each week. That's 608 00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:17,240 Speaker 1: going to be on the Action YouTube page. Make sure 609 00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:20,040 Speaker 1: to like and subscribe. And then I'm also going to 610 00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:23,280 Speaker 1: be doing primetime NFL Touchdown picks, both videos and they'll 611 00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:25,760 Speaker 1: be on the Action Network app and written form. Both 612 00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:28,200 Speaker 1: of them be available on the app or YouTube, and 613 00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:30,880 Speaker 1: of course each Friday, I'll have it Anytime Touchdown preview 614 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:35,080 Speaker 1: for every game with angles leans important data which guys 615 00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,920 Speaker 1: I would bet for an anytime touchdown. And also I'm 616 00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,600 Speaker 1: going to have my two interception props. I still do 617 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,480 Speaker 1: track the interception odds for all quarterbacks, which is one 618 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,200 Speaker 1: of my favorite markets to do. That'll be every Friday 619 00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:49,480 Speaker 1: as well, and if you still can't find that, you 620 00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,560 Speaker 1: can just go on X follow me at G Dog 621 00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:57,000 Speaker 1: five thousand, GDAWG five thousand. I can guarantee that you'll 622 00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 1: be able to find all of this content there every 623 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:01,240 Speaker 1: week from the. 624 00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:05,520 Speaker 2: Action Network Excellent. The interception plug is a miss Matt 625 00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:11,480 Speaker 2: Ryan dearly goat. That's a very specific example inside inside 626 00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:13,680 Speaker 2: the Walls when we were doing this a couple years ago. 627 00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:17,000 Speaker 2: This is your third year with Action Network betting touchdowns. 628 00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:19,880 Speaker 2: Joe Galant again, he plugged it there. Find him in 629 00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:21,959 Speaker 2: the Action Network app and then it will take you 630 00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:24,440 Speaker 2: on an adventure where you can find his content throughout 631 00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:27,479 Speaker 2: the course of the twenty twenty four NFL season. That 632 00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:32,280 Speaker 2: concludes the Anytime Touchdown Manifesto episode Thanks to Joe Galant. 633 00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:36,640 Speaker 2: I'm Brendan Glasheen, the Action Network Podcast presented by BETMGM. 634 00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,760 Speaker 2: You all have a great NFL season. We look forward 635 00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:40,440 Speaker 2: to more from Jill. 636 00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 637 00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 638 00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:00,320 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one time and Adred 639 00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:00,720 Speaker 1: Gambler