Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.
Speaker 2: It is time for some Week eight action here.
Speaker 1: We are at the halfway point of the quasi halfway
Speaker 1: point of the season. Here and of course, as always,
Speaker 1: joining me here to break down the weekend slate. We
Speaker 1: have none other than the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman, and
Speaker 1: joining us today none other from the Action Network than
Speaker 1: Stucky himself. How are you doing today? Thank you so
Speaker 1: much for joining us here, Jill.
Speaker 3: Well, it's we're in the heart of football seasons. You
Speaker 3: follow college football, I guess I'll do it. I'll shameless
Speaker 3: plug two for pig Bets on Campus podcast, getting ready
Speaker 3: to do that later today. But if you follow college
Speaker 3: football and the NFL, we have at least one football
Speaker 3: game in each of the next twenty seven days. That's
Speaker 3: a beautiful time of the year.
Speaker 1: And then that's going to dovetail right into the World Cup,
Speaker 1: so you get even more other football action going on there.
Speaker 1: This is the best sports time we have everything going
Speaker 1: on here. Baseball is almost over, we got the NBA
Speaker 1: and somebody should probably tell the Lakers that NHL is
Speaker 1: kicked as to drop the puck on their season. This
Speaker 1: is full sports season here. It doesn't get any better
Speaker 1: than this, ladies and gentlemen, And so today we're gonna
Speaker 1: be talking about some of these NFL games here, Matt.
Speaker 1: The first one you have up on your list might
Speaker 1: be one of my biggest no touch games of the
Speaker 1: year because I have absolutely zero ankling here. You've been
Speaker 1: low on the Raiders this all season. Their big win
Speaker 1: against the Texans doesn't do it for you. Here you
Speaker 1: are taking the Saints as one and a half point
Speaker 1: dogs at home this week against the Raiders.
Speaker 4: Yeah, still very much like the Saints in the spot.
Speaker 4: You know, that offense with Andy Dalton at quarterback for
Speaker 4: some reason, maybe it's just because he's avoiding some of
Speaker 4: the massive turnovers you know we've seen Jameis Winston, but
Speaker 4: that offense has been pretty good, averaging thirty one points
Speaker 4: per game with Dalton, and Dalton for his career has
Speaker 4: been pretty good as an underdog forty one thirty one
Speaker 4: and two against the spread, going against Derek Carr, who's
Speaker 4: been fifteen to twenty five and one against the spread
Speaker 4: as a favorite. So you know, trans pointing in opposite
Speaker 4: directions there, But just in terms of on field matchup,
Speaker 4: the Saints rush offense versus the Raiders rush defense. I
Speaker 4: think that for me is going to be the big
Speaker 4: difference here. The Saints have one of the league's best
Speaker 4: running offenses and the Raiders are mediocre against the run,
Speaker 4: you know, often allowing opponents to stay on schedule and
Speaker 4: sustained drives on the ground. They're number seventeen in rush
Speaker 4: success rate, number twenty in rush DVOA, and you know,
Speaker 4: for the Saints offense, they're top three in both of
Speaker 4: those categories. You know, the Raiders are exploitable via the
Speaker 4: air as well, bottom six and both drop back EPA
Speaker 4: and drop back success rate. But you know, with the
Speaker 4: pass catching injuries the Saints have, I think they're likely
Speaker 4: to rely more on the running game, and with the
Speaker 4: edge that they have in that area, I think they're
Speaker 4: going to keep the contest close. And the Thursday look
Speaker 4: Ahead market the Saints were minus one and a half
Speaker 4: and I still think that they should be favored here.
Speaker 4: I have this at Saints minus one.
Speaker 1: Two.
Speaker 2: Things.
Speaker 1: Number one, the rush bit completely on with especially now
Speaker 1: that the Raiders are also losing Jonathan Hankin as they
Speaker 1: traded him to the Dallas Cowboys. Here, this rush defense
Speaker 1: is very exploitable here, and I fully expect to see
Speaker 1: a lot of Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara.
Speaker 2: Andy Dalton's been avoiding the major turnovers though. Didn't you
Speaker 2: have two picks sixes last week?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 4: But one of those wasn't his fault, you know, Like
Speaker 4: for the most part, he hasn't been Jameis Winston, which
Speaker 4: is like the threshold for whether you get to start
Speaker 4: over Jameis Winston.
Speaker 1: But all I'm saying is I'm a little worried if
Speaker 1: we do see another turnover too. I want to know
Speaker 1: how long the leash is with him, because apparently coach
Speaker 1: Dennis Allen was saying that he's going to start, but
Speaker 1: Jamis is healthy, and we had heard for weeks with
Speaker 1: this Saints team that Jamis is going to start when
Speaker 1: he's back and healthy. At how cool If Andy Dalton
Speaker 1: gets off to a bad start, do you think they
Speaker 1: put Jamis in this game?
Speaker 4: Maybe, but I think it would have to be a
Speaker 4: really bad start. They did say that it was performance
Speaker 4: at this point and not health as to why Dalton
Speaker 4: is starting, Yeah.
Speaker 2: Stucky, what are you thinking on this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah? It's this is a It's a tough handicap, mainly
Speaker 3: because of all the injuries that New Orleans of stuffered
Speaker 3: a key positions right secondary, wide receiver. I show i'd
Speaker 3: make this a true coin flip. So if I had
Speaker 3: a bet, and I bet the Saints, who have actually
Speaker 3: been pretty good in terms of efficiency on both sides
Speaker 3: of the ball, they've been the unluckiest team in turnovers,
Speaker 3: which tend to regress over the course of the season,
Speaker 3: especially if you know you don't have Winston in there.
Speaker 3: I mean, Dalton's two pick sixes last week basically cost
Speaker 3: some the game. There's been a couple other games like that.
Speaker 3: We're just absolute game swinging penalties. They've not only just
Speaker 3: numerically have they had the worst turnover luck in the NFL.
Speaker 3: It's like when they come you have to like if
Speaker 3: you dig in the penalty in turnovers, like they matter
Speaker 3: a lot more than you know, a Hail Mary at
Speaker 3: the end of the first half compared to like you're
Speaker 3: driving and there's a pick six. So but one thing
Speaker 3: that gives me pause here is the Saints defensive line.
Speaker 3: Theyre just haven't been They're not getting any pressure number one,
Speaker 3: and if you look, Josh Jacobs looks rejuvenated. The Raiders'
Speaker 3: offensive line is actually I think they're number one in
Speaker 3: adjusted lineyards and they've been really good and run blocking.
Speaker 3: The Saints are number two. But then if you look
Speaker 3: at the other side of the ball, the Raiders defensive
Speaker 3: line has actually been better against Rent. I don't know
Speaker 3: what's going on with the Saints defensive line. Maybe some
Speaker 3: guys are over the hill dealing with injuries. I'm not sure,
Speaker 3: but generally speaking, the Saints defense will shut down the run,
Speaker 3: so I would like this matchup from that perspective, but
Speaker 3: it just hasn't really played out that way this year.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I make this a true coin flip. Saints
Speaker 3: at hun they probably have some aggression coming their way.
Speaker 3: They've been really good from an efficiency standpoint. There's just
Speaker 3: a lot of injury uncertainty with the Saints, but yeah,
Speaker 3: I think it's Saints are passed.
Speaker 1: Also important to note here, Derek Carr, limited in practice
Speaker 1: on Wednesday, was dealing with a back injury stemming from
Speaker 1: last week's game. He's still gonna play, but the last
Speaker 1: thing you want with that offensive line as a quarterback
Speaker 1: like Derek Carr, who's even more immobile for this one.
Speaker 1: That could be a big problem here for him. The
Speaker 1: next game up on the board, the Lions and the Dolphins. Here,
Speaker 1: the Lions, they're gonna be getting four and a half
Speaker 1: points in this one, three and a half points in
Speaker 1: this one right now at home. But Stucky, you had
Speaker 1: them at four and a half. Do you still like
Speaker 1: them at three and a half?
Speaker 3: I wish I had him fortnite you said four and
Speaker 3: a half. I almost ran to I was about to
Speaker 3: pull up my phone. I was like, well, I'm about
Speaker 3: to add to the Lions. Yeah, I like the Lions here.
Speaker 3: I mean, if you look at what they've done when
Speaker 3: their off, it's been full. Everyone's jumped off this bandwagon.
Speaker 3: Now they're all on it early in the year. But
Speaker 3: if you look at what they've done all year, I mean,
Speaker 3: they've put up early in their thirty five, thirty six,
Speaker 3: forty eight, and it's a team that was regularly scoring
Speaker 3: over thirty points at home indoors where Jared Goff isn't
Speaker 3: a pumpkin. And then they have one bad game at
Speaker 3: New England, you know, but they were missing some key
Speaker 3: guys and golf outdoors is a great spot for the
Speaker 3: Patriots even and then last week they go to Dallas.
Speaker 3: The yardage about equal was five turn to one. They
Speaker 3: were at the one to take the lead. I think
Speaker 3: early the fourth quarter fumbled at the one yard line.
Speaker 3: I think their defense showed out well. I actually have
Speaker 3: some promise for their defense moving forward. It's been one
Speaker 3: of the worst in the league. But they inserted some
Speaker 3: young guys into the lineup in the by you know,
Speaker 3: playing Josh Pascal more up front, Kirby Joseph I think
Speaker 3: he is playing well at safety. Then obviously everyone knows
Speaker 3: about Hutchinson, who had his best day as a pro
Speaker 3: last week, so did Jeff Akudah for what it's worth
Speaker 3: a corner knock and Rodrigez I think is a future
Speaker 3: studded linebackers. So I think their defense is going to improve,
Speaker 3: and it looked pretty good last week. And you have
Speaker 3: to remember last week the Lions didn't play with DeAndre Swift,
Speaker 3: who will play this week, and they lost him on
Speaker 3: Ross Saint Brown and like the first drive because he
Speaker 3: was spotted for a concussion which he didn't have. He's
Speaker 3: massive for that offense and especially this week, so we
Speaker 3: know the Lions have a good offensive line. They're going
Speaker 3: up against a Dolphin secondary that is down to fourth
Speaker 3: and fifth string corners and Xavion Howard and they just
Speaker 3: lost Brandon Jones at safety. It's like a really important
Speaker 3: blitz piece for them. So I think the Lions will
Speaker 3: be able to move the ball here and for as
Speaker 3: you know, fun is the Miami offens is in four
Speaker 3: or five four or five to a starts. They haven't
Speaker 3: surpassed twenty one points. Like it's just not there's something
Speaker 3: missing there. But I think this, you know, the both
Speaker 3: teams are going to be able to score here. I'll
Speaker 3: gladly take the three and a half at home with
Speaker 3: the Lions. I think defense is trending up, offense is
Speaker 3: now fully healthy. I think this is a good spot
Speaker 3: to buy Detroit.
Speaker 1: Fifty one and a half points is the total matt
Speaker 1: any thoughts on that versus one of the sides here.
Speaker 1: I know it's high, but it's it's the Lions and
Speaker 1: that defense going up against anyone is usually a recipe
Speaker 1: for an over.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I don't I have it at fifty
Speaker 4: one point six, so you know, I'm basically right there,
Speaker 4: but I you know, I am. I'm hopeful that Stucky
Speaker 4: is right because in the look ahead market. I actually
Speaker 4: did get on the Lions at plus three, and then,
Speaker 4: of course, like my luck, it moved to three and
Speaker 4: a half instead of down. But I was, you know,
Speaker 4: at that point bullish enough on the Lions to think
Speaker 4: that this line might move down. And I'm westucky. I
Speaker 4: thought they played actually pretty well against Dallas and it
Speaker 4: was only at the end of the game that things
Speaker 4: really unraveled for them. So if I had to bet
Speaker 4: this now, I would probably be on the Lions and
Speaker 4: not the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: I'm inclined to agree with you, especially for getting that
Speaker 1: three and a half. I like that hook with the
Speaker 1: Lions here at home. But Matt, how are you feeling
Speaker 1: about this next game up here? It's the big one?
Speaker 1: This is the super Bowl of the season, the matchup
Speaker 1: to end all matchups.
Speaker 5: For the first time in twenty one years, the New
Speaker 5: York Jets head into their battle with the New England
Speaker 5: Patriots with a better record. Where are you going in
Speaker 5: this one? The Patriots are.
Speaker 1: Now laying two and a half points around town. Oh,
Speaker 1: I wanted to get to three so bad. I know
Speaker 1: what's going to happen in this game. I've been predicting
Speaker 1: the downfall and I do argue that it happened last
Speaker 1: week losing Bresee Hall, but and Elijah Vera Tucker, that's
Speaker 1: just two brutal blows for this Jets offense. I think
Speaker 1: they'll be okay in the future when and when Fant returns.
Speaker 1: This offensive line will get back to being somewhat okay.
Speaker 1: But man, these injuries has been brutal. Where are you
Speaker 1: going in this one? Are you going to lay the
Speaker 1: points with the Patriots on the road?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Stuckey, If you can't tell, Tom is a diehard
Speaker 4: Jets fan, so he's really filling it right now. Yeah,
Speaker 4: I'm on the Patriots. I think their pass defense going
Speaker 4: against the pass offense or lack of pass offense for
Speaker 4: the Jets, is the real difference in this game. And
Speaker 4: you know, the Jets offense is ranked top five and
Speaker 4: just one efficiency metric that's rush EPA per play, And
Speaker 4: in quarterback Zach Wilson's four starts, the Jets were actually
Speaker 4: number one in rush EPA per play, like giving him
Speaker 4: outstanding support in the ground game. But you know, for
Speaker 4: the year, the Jets are just number twenty two in
Speaker 4: rush success rate. Since Week four, they've improved, but still
Speaker 4: only number thirteen. And you know what that means is
Speaker 4: on a down to down basis, they're not really consistent.
Speaker 4: You know, They've just relying on the big play, especially
Speaker 4: from Briest Hall. And you know, now with him out,
Speaker 4: you mentioned Elijah Berry Tucker out, he's really the team's
Speaker 4: best run blocker. I think the Jets are going to
Speaker 4: struggle on the ground, which means they need Wilson to
Speaker 4: do more through the air, and like that's that's a
Speaker 4: big ask, right, Like that feels like a problem given
Speaker 4: that the Patriots defense is top six and every key
Speaker 4: pass efficiency metric and the Jets pass offense is no
Speaker 4: better than average. So if they can't run the ball,
Speaker 4: and if they can't pass the ball against the Patriots defense,
Speaker 4: like how are they going to score enough points to cover? So, yeah,
Speaker 4: I'm on the Patriots in this spot.
Speaker 2: Stucky, what are you feeling in this game?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's it's test to be Patriots here
Speaker 3: for what it's worth. Belichick thirty nine to seven and
Speaker 3: one against the spread after a loss. That's eighty four percent,
Speaker 3: including twenty six three and one against the spread on
Speaker 3: the road after a loss, covering by eleven points per game,
Speaker 3: that's ninety percent two and out this year to He's
Speaker 3: done it with Castle, He's done it with multiple quarterbacks. Yeah,
Speaker 3: the Jets are whatever. The right with their fraudulent record
Speaker 3: is they've beaten they've won four and or I think
Speaker 3: against nothing backup quarterbacks. Last week, by the way, I
Speaker 3: had a ten great of that game is a ten
Speaker 3: point loss for the Jets. Great at that. The seventeen
Speaker 3: point win against the Packers is a four point loss
Speaker 3: they had. They scored on two trick plays on offense,
Speaker 3: a punt block for a touchdown, block the field goal.
Speaker 3: This off the last two games that they won on
Speaker 3: the road, and they Zack Wilson had a twenty nine
Speaker 3: percent success rate and a thirty one percent success rate
Speaker 3: complete poverty. He's under He's the worst. I think he's
Speaker 3: the worst quarterback in the NFL by far, this guy.
Speaker 3: I mean, it's it's amazing that they're winning games with him,
Speaker 3: and they're winning games despite him facing back up quarterbacks
Speaker 3: getting some fortunate breaks under and the Patriots get a
Speaker 3: lot of pressure too. Under pressure. This year, Zach Wilson
Speaker 3: is five of thirty one for forty yards five of
Speaker 3: thirty one for forty yards. He is completely lost back there,
Speaker 3: and yeah, now you don't have Breis Hall to you know,
Speaker 3: break a seventy yard run here or there. I think
Speaker 3: the Jets are in for a long day. If you
Speaker 3: look at EPA plus completion percentage of expectation. Out of
Speaker 3: thirty six qualified quarterbacks, Jack Wilson's thirty fifth. The only
Speaker 3: one that's been worse this year is Baker Mayfield. So yeah,
Speaker 3: this is this is Patriots all the way in a
Speaker 3: bounce back spot. And yeah, the Jets are. Their medicine
Speaker 3: is coming and they're coming back down to Earth soon.
Speaker 3: I like their future. They've got some good young pieces,
Speaker 3: but their defense isn't as good as people think that
Speaker 3: they keep playing backups and their offense with Alvaris Hall
Speaker 3: is a joke.
Speaker 1: This is just this is just going to be terrible
Speaker 1: because this is where the era of good feelings get nothing.
Speaker 1: Nothing gold can stay with the Jets. Of course, four
Speaker 1: straight wins here and then in the last one and
Speaker 1: this was the game for me where I said, if
Speaker 1: we beat the Broncos, it's you're starting to look at.
Speaker 2: This team and go, okay, they can make the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Now five and two, going, you're going into this. You
Speaker 1: look at the back half of their schedule. This is
Speaker 1: a team that can potentially make that run because the
Speaker 1: teams that they play after the bye week are complete jokes.
Speaker 1: And so of course Breese Hall and Elijah Vera Tucker
Speaker 1: have to go down. You can't enjoy anything for a minute.
Speaker 1: And yeah, I do think that this is going to
Speaker 1: be a blowout here. I'm probably not gonna end up
Speaker 1: betting it. I'm just gonna take my misery and deal
Speaker 1: with it. But I definitely agree it's a two game
Speaker 1: losing streak heading into the bike. They're gonna lose this one.
Speaker 1: They're gonna lose to the Bills, and then you're still
Speaker 1: in a good position. But it definitely hurts not having
Speaker 1: Breeze Hall and James Robinson is not an adequate replacement
Speaker 1: for him.
Speaker 2: We do need a You could, I.
Speaker 3: Will say you could. Yeah, you need a quarterback back. Yeah,
Speaker 3: you could win this game. It's not out of the
Speaker 3: it's a division game. The totals forty Yeah, I actually
Speaker 3: like the under too, and you can have a couple
Speaker 3: breaks goarway. So I like the Patriots offense is a
Speaker 3: juggernaut and you're gonna get mac Jones still shaking off
Speaker 3: some rusts. You barely got any work last week. And
Speaker 3: if you do win this game, like I like the Patriots,
Speaker 3: but out man the Bills next week will be an absolute.
Speaker 3: There is zero percent chance. First of all, but again,
Speaker 3: Wilson will be under pressure the whole game. There is
Speaker 3: zero percent chance that the Jets offense can keep up
Speaker 3: with the Bills.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that is if they win again that game. I'm
Speaker 2: still chewing up.
Speaker 1: I looked at these three gate pre bye week games
Speaker 1: and I just said, if we could just grab one,
Speaker 1: and we grabbed one, So I'm happy. But the sad
Speaker 1: thing is that we did it at the price of
Speaker 1: losing our only two good players on offense. I just
Speaker 1: hope that this team still recognizes that they're not getting
Speaker 1: the job done with Zack Wilson and they need to
Speaker 1: move on to another quarterback after the season, because that
Speaker 1: was my whole goal for this season with the Jets
Speaker 1: was just suck enough that you move on from Zach
Speaker 1: Wilson and you can take all of these talented pieces
Speaker 1: and get him a real quarterback. I was never a
Speaker 1: believer in this guy, and I'm still not at this point.
Speaker 1: But we've spent more than enough time talking about the
Speaker 1: Jets here because well, wait, now you're.
Speaker 3: Going to go eight to nine though, and not get
Speaker 3: a good draft pick and he stuck. Maybe you get
Speaker 3: a veteran quarterback.
Speaker 2: Well that's the thing.
Speaker 1: I don't really I'm not invested at the quarterbacks at
Speaker 1: the top of this draft class anyway. You've got a
Speaker 1: bam a quarterback in the Ohio State quarterback as the
Speaker 1: two best ones right now. I don't want any part
Speaker 1: of either of those programs giving me a quarterback for
Speaker 1: the next twenty years. So I'm okay with a mid
Speaker 1: round pick and trying to take a fly or something,
Speaker 1: because it's not like when we had a number two
Speaker 1: overall pick we get anything good with it. We took
Speaker 1: Zach Wilson. So we'll see what happens. I don't really
Speaker 1: trust Stroud and Young. But that's a conversation for a
Speaker 1: different podcast here, because we got something really even weirder
Speaker 1: and possibly hasn't happened in more than the twenty one
Speaker 1: years since the Jets have had the better record.
Speaker 2: Going into the game against the Patriots.
Speaker 1: The Packers are eleven point dogs in their game this week. Yes,
Speaker 1: it's against the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo. But when is
Speaker 1: the last time we have seen them laying getting eleven points?
Speaker 1: I almost feel like I have to take that number,
Speaker 1: even though this team has done nothing to show me
Speaker 1: that there are any good over the past several weeks.
Speaker 2: Matt, what are you think it in this one?
Speaker 4: Well, let's kick it to Stucky. This is really his
Speaker 4: game here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the backagtar I took plus eleven and
Speaker 3: a half. It's never happened with Rogers. He's never been
Speaker 3: more than a touchdown underdog in the regular season. Oddly enough,
Speaker 3: he's it's happened three times, and all on this same weekend.
Speaker 3: Last year he won at undefeated Arizona with no receivers.
Speaker 3: He won. He lost by on a last second field
Speaker 3: goal at undefeated Rams in twenty eighteen, who went under
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl and the Packers stunk that year, and
Speaker 3: then in twenty ten they beat the undefeated Jets. I
Speaker 3: think nine to nothing. I don't know what happened in
Speaker 3: that game. I got to go back and look.
Speaker 2: I do.
Speaker 1: I actually remember watching that game because it is just
Speaker 1: it was a class the Sanchez. It was a classic
Speaker 1: Sanchez game. The offense couldn't do anything, even though the
Speaker 1: defense stifled Matt Aaron Rodgers in one of the best
Speaker 1: seasons he ever had.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but I look, they're going to have the receiving core.
Speaker 3: They just have no explosiveness. This Packers team. Everyone has
Speaker 3: documented the struggles, but you know, they've also been really unlucky.
Speaker 3: I mean, their special teams are terrible, but if you
Speaker 3: look their sixth and success rate, they can move the
Speaker 3: ball a little bit. They're actually I saw someone tweet
Speaker 3: this out today. They're number two in EPA per play
Speaker 3: on offense outside of the forties, Like in the middle
Speaker 3: of the field, they can't do anything. They're also dead
Speaker 3: last and fourth down conversion rate thirty second EPA per
Speaker 3: play on late downs, which tend to have more variants.
Speaker 3: Their defense is still a really good pass defense, and
Speaker 3: their run defense is awful, and they've played these teams
Speaker 3: that have just run all over them. But this matchup
Speaker 3: might not be the worst thing for them. Like Bills
Speaker 3: don't give up explosive plays, so and the Packers don't
Speaker 3: have any exposiveness in their offense. They're gonna have to
Speaker 3: run the ball, They're gonna have to dike it, dunk
Speaker 3: they're gonna get rid of the quick. We'll see how
Speaker 3: healthy their offensive line is. That's anohing they dealt with
Speaker 3: offensive line injuries. And on the other side of the ball,
Speaker 3: the Bills throw the ball. That's what they do. They
Speaker 3: can't run it, by the way, even if they come
Speaker 3: out here and say let's run it more. I think
Speaker 3: they're bottom three and heap gave for play when running
Speaker 3: the ball, So they're gonna throw it a lot. And
Speaker 3: that's what the Packers look for. Shawn Gary practice today,
Speaker 3: which is big. The Packers can get some pressure. They
Speaker 3: have a good secondary, so I kind of like the
Speaker 3: match up here with their you know, kind of dink
Speaker 3: and dunk efficient offense. You hope that they get some
Speaker 3: better luck on late downs. And on the other side,
Speaker 3: like their pass defense is good. That's what you want
Speaker 3: against the Bills. Maybe I know Bills are off of
Speaker 3: a buy here, but they just beat the Chiefs. It's
Speaker 3: like the Packers struggle. Maybe they come out a little flat,
Speaker 3: And I think this situation just sets up well for
Speaker 3: the Packers and like everyone's written them off. They've had
Speaker 3: all this pressure on them, their offense, and like you
Speaker 3: can go in here and play loose and free. No
Speaker 3: one's giving you a chance. And most importantly, I just
Speaker 3: think that this is the bottom of the market on
Speaker 3: the Packers, which is really what you want to do
Speaker 3: and what I, or at least what I first try
Speaker 3: to do when betting the NFL, you know, buying low
Speaker 3: and selling high. It's similar to the stock mark. And
Speaker 3: I think that this is the bottom of the Packers
Speaker 3: stock And I know it's so narrative based to say, oh,
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers, hall of fame quarterback, I'll glad they take
Speaker 3: eleven and a half with him, and I'll tell you
Speaker 3: why that's important. And like if I had to think
Speaker 3: that this is a blowout down seventeen late, especially in
Speaker 3: today's EEV with the scoring down, if they're down seventeen
Speaker 3: late in the game, that's a blowout. Then you got
Speaker 3: a Hall of Fame quarterback with three minutes ago, playing
Speaker 3: against a prevent defense. You need them to go down
Speaker 3: to get a touchdown. Could be in worse spots.
Speaker 1: So back door is very open, and the Bills can
Speaker 1: let you back in, especially given their injuries in the secondary.
Speaker 3: Yeah, of course, So yeah, I think that this is
Speaker 3: the this is the time to buy the Packers and
Speaker 3: historic Boks. Speaking of buying low, if you just follow
Speaker 3: this blindly the past forty years, teams off three straight
Speaker 3: losses and three straight non covers, you just bet them
Speaker 3: the next week, especially as an underdog you're at sixty percent. Historically,
Speaker 3: everyone is just talking about how bad the Packers are,
Speaker 3: how great the Bills are. It's goodbye, low Cellah spot
Speaker 3: puld your nose, Matt.
Speaker 1: Any thoughts on this game or do you want to
Speaker 1: go on to your next game which is a little
Speaker 1: bit different.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I you know, I'm on the look aheadline here.
Speaker 4: I got it on you know, last Thursday, Buffalo minus
Speaker 4: eight and a half, and I saw that I was like,
Speaker 4: no way that this doesn't get to ten by the
Speaker 4: time this line really opens on Sunday nights. So I
Speaker 4: bet that if I'm looking at this number now, I
Speaker 4: take all the Stucky's points and I'll just say, like,
Speaker 4: I think he's probably right. There's a difference between like
Speaker 4: being right, like in terms of how teams match up
Speaker 4: with each other, and then like you know, going by
Speaker 4: the number based on your power ratings. I still have
Speaker 4: this like power rated to where Buffalo should be favored
Speaker 4: by eleven point seventy five points, So in theory, there's
Speaker 4: still like my line would point towards the Bills, but
Speaker 4: you know, past ten, you know, the difference between like
Speaker 4: ten and a half eleven and then getting up to
Speaker 4: eleven point seven five, They're like, there's not much of
Speaker 4: a difference there, And I don't I don't think I
Speaker 4: really want to be betting this game on the Bill
Speaker 4: past ten. I mean I take Stucky's point of like, yeah, like,
Speaker 4: am I going to regret like a week from now
Speaker 4: not having bet on Aaron Rodgers at like what is
Speaker 4: definitely like the low point in the market for him?
Speaker 4: Like yeah, I will probably be like, man, I should
Speaker 4: have just been on, I should have tried to middle
Speaker 4: or I should have just waited and be like, no,
Speaker 4: I'm gonna bet the Packers once this gets past ten.
Speaker 4: So I take Stucky's point there, but at this point
Speaker 4: in the market, I'm probably staying away.
Speaker 3: On a scale of one to ten, how shock would
Speaker 3: you be at if the Packers went out right three?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would say maybe four, five.
Speaker 2: I mean, nothing shocks anymore.
Speaker 4: Right, like big underdog winning this year, Like, yeah, that's
Speaker 4: that's very conceivable, especially with you know, Aaron Rodgers and
Speaker 4: the defense that they have the one thing that does
Speaker 4: give me pause is that they just don't have the
Speaker 4: talent on offense and their their offensive line is in
Speaker 4: disarray right now with all the moving pieces they have
Speaker 4: back and forth, and you know Bactiari, who knows if
Speaker 4: he actually ends up playing, So the offensive line issues,
Speaker 4: that's really what what gives me pause.
Speaker 3: Yeah, backyard is an important piece. If you want to
Speaker 3: wait to bet this, I'm just gonna stay over ten.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 3: They need they need Batyar at left tackle. They and
Speaker 3: then they're moving Jenkins to left guard and I think
Speaker 3: that will help, and especially against the Bills. Like Baktiari,
Speaker 3: it's been good, but he's been in there similar like
Speaker 3: Rodney Stanley, Like there's just no drop off when he plays.
Speaker 3: He's elite and you're gonna be going up against von
Speaker 3: Miller and a defensive line that can get pressure. And
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers has just been under fire all season long.
Speaker 3: So yeah, see if if Baciari plays, I like this
Speaker 3: even more. He practiced today which is a good sisode
Speaker 3: over Sean Garry, so it looks like he's gonna play,
Speaker 3: which is another important piece. But Baciaris is literally it
Speaker 3: appears from what I've read and heard that he's gonna
Speaker 3: be like a game time decision for the next like month. Yeah,
Speaker 3: he played two weeks ago and then he's like it
Speaker 3: just depends on the day and how was his knee feel.
Speaker 3: So yeah, he he's an important piece for this game
Speaker 3: and this matchup.
Speaker 2: It's just so hard.
Speaker 1: I don't really see how in the NFL, especially this season,
Speaker 1: how you can lay ten points in any matchup here
Speaker 1: because it's just so unpredictable and what's been going on.
Speaker 1: And so with that, Matt, the Steelers are playing the Eagles,
Speaker 1: and the Eagles are laying ten and a half points
Speaker 1: in this matchup, Where are you going in this one?
Speaker 4: So I will say I bet this when it was ten.
Speaker 4: Ten and a half is not quite as appetizing obviously
Speaker 4: because you're off of the key number. But I still
Speaker 4: I really like the matchup between these two teams, the
Speaker 4: matchup that we have for the Eagles here, and you know,
Speaker 4: like we obviously know like the trend of like Mike
Speaker 4: Tomlin as an underdog obviously fantastic in that spot forty
Speaker 4: eight twenty five and three against the spread for his
Speaker 4: career as an underdog. And yeah, I mean you can
Speaker 4: see how this could be like a Rav Ross spot
Speaker 4: for Mike Tomlin. But this Eagles pass defense going against
Speaker 4: the Steelers pass offense, I think that for me is
Speaker 4: the matchup and where this game is won. The Steelers,
Speaker 4: I think they have one of the best pass catching
Speaker 4: like skill position groups in the league. Obviously a wide
Speaker 4: receiver Deontay Johnson and Chase Claypoll George Pickens, all those
Speaker 4: three guys are great. Pat Freyremouth is an emerging tight
Speaker 4: end who I think could eventually elevate himself into the
Speaker 4: top tier. And Najee Harris is a really good pass
Speaker 4: catching back for a guy of his size. But their
Speaker 4: passing game has been thwarted by the I don't want
Speaker 4: to say like lack of development by rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett,
Speaker 4: but just like the fact that he's a rookie. He's
Speaker 4: dead last in the league with a three point nine
Speaker 4: adjusted yards per attempt, Like he has not played well
Speaker 4: this year. There are some throws where it's just like
Speaker 4: he does not have the physical ability to make those
Speaker 4: throws when he thinks that he does, so he needs
Speaker 4: to adjust his game, So like, how are they going
Speaker 4: to move the ball through the air against the Eagles.
Speaker 4: I think they're not going to. The Eagles defense is
Speaker 4: top six against the pass and a number of efficient metrics.
Speaker 4: I think they're just too strong at cornerback. You know,
Speaker 4: with James Bradbury, he's got the size and the physicality
Speaker 4: to match up with Claypool and Pickens on the perimeter.
Speaker 4: And then you know Darius Slay he's got the quickness
Speaker 4: I think to stick with Johnson. And then in the slot,
Speaker 4: Avonte Maddox has steadily developed over the past few years
Speaker 4: and to one of the better, you know, interior pass defenders.
Speaker 4: He's got, you know, an elite combination of speed and agility,
Speaker 4: which I think helps him navigate the middle of the field.
Speaker 4: I just I think the Eagles are too explosive on
Speaker 4: offense not to get out to a double digit lead,
Speaker 4: and their pass defense is good enough to be able
Speaker 4: to keep that lead in the second half. So you know,
Speaker 4: at ten and a half, it's it's close. For me,
Speaker 4: I would still be on the Eagles at this number.
Speaker 4: I obviously liked it much more ten when I bet
Speaker 4: it and wrote it up.
Speaker 2: Stucky, how are you feeling in this one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it looks like you know, I make this kind
Speaker 3: of spot on Yeah, Tom, and as a dog obviously
Speaker 3: has been unbelievable. This I just would classify as a
Speaker 3: Rara spot in my opinion, which would treat me very
Speaker 3: well in the past. But I don't know if I'd
Speaker 3: want to back the Steelers here. I will I will
Speaker 3: tell you that if Lane Johnson was going to be
Speaker 3: out for the end, it looks like he's going to
Speaker 3: return out of concussion protocol. But he's really important to
Speaker 3: that offensive line, and you saw when he went out
Speaker 3: against the Cowboys. And I just have this weird suspicion that,
Speaker 3: you know, the Steelers defense would do a lot of
Speaker 3: injuries that like we're gonna it'll be like shocking everyone
Speaker 3: that TJ. Watt comes off the I R and just
Speaker 3: plays on Sunday and like he I remember he was
Speaker 3: in concussion protocol one week. They got a concussion on
Speaker 3: like a Tuesday. They played the Rams on like a Tuesday,
Speaker 3: and then he was Everyone's like he's out, and then
Speaker 3: he just played and he like practiced today. I think, Uh,
Speaker 3: my friend that's affiliated with the Steelers was like he
Speaker 3: was out there on the side like going full It
Speaker 3: wouldn't shock me. TJ. I played and the Steelers defense
Speaker 3: with TJ. Watt on and off the field splits is ridiculous.
Speaker 3: And him against that you know what the Eagles like
Speaker 3: to do off the edge and him, you know, and
Speaker 3: if Lane Johnson was out, t J. Watts like literally
Speaker 3: could be worth maybe the most important defensive player in
Speaker 3: the league in this particular matchup of Johnson was out.
Speaker 4: Yeah, but that's terrifying. That's terrifying. The idea of TJ
Speaker 4: walking back. Honestly, I'm when we're done, I'm gonna go
Speaker 4: do some research and look this up. If he's practicing,
Speaker 4: I'm buying out of my position right now. Like, I
Speaker 4: will just say that if TJ. Watt is actually out there,
Speaker 4: I want no part of going against this number.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the I will say that the like because the
Speaker 3: common thought was because the Steelers played the Eagles this week,
Speaker 3: they'll be making this up. But I think they have
Speaker 3: a buy next.
Speaker 2: Week real quick. TJ. Watt practice today.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so what topic they'll buy next week? So everyone's
Speaker 3: like he's just gonna come back after the bye. But
Speaker 3: they're like two and five, all right, two and five
Speaker 3: to just you have to win this game where your
Speaker 3: season is pretty much over in the ICC. So I
Speaker 3: don't know, but I will say something in support of you.
Speaker 3: And you know, I will quote trends if there's a
Speaker 3: reason for them. You know, the talmil they makes sense.
Speaker 3: He's a very good motivator, fires up a locker room.
Speaker 3: Not the greatest like in game manager, but his team
Speaker 3: he's like kind of like, get the troops ready, and
Speaker 3: sometimes they come out so flat. Of his favorites back
Speaker 3: with Roethlisberger, he's awful. He was a big favorite against
Speaker 3: losing teams. Here's one that another trend that supports the
Speaker 3: Eagles that I believe in. And this is crazy. Since
Speaker 3: two thousand and one, undefeated teams in the NFL coming
Speaker 3: off of buy that are favored at home are eighteen
Speaker 3: and one straight up and seventeen and two against the spread,
Speaker 3: covering by I think almost two touchdowns per game. Think
Speaker 3: about this. This is undefeated teams in the NFL. Everyone
Speaker 3: knows that they're good, right, you would think that they
Speaker 3: would be at the top of their market. There's seventeen
Speaker 3: to two against the spread. Why how could this be?
Speaker 3: And you know, an efficient NFL market, I would you know,
Speaker 3: my hypothesis is that if you're undefeated in the NFL
Speaker 3: and at home right number one, you're gonna get an
Speaker 3: amazing crowd Hoak Field of Avengine. You're gonna be rested,
Speaker 3: and you're a good team. You probably a good coaching staff.
Speaker 3: But you're undefeated and you're on a bye. You probably
Speaker 3: spent that two weeks like the morale and the dedication
Speaker 3: and everything is just positive and everything's working together. You
Speaker 3: probably spent those two weeks every week and second, everyone
Speaker 3: on the team studying film and like. So, yeah, that's
Speaker 3: a crazy seventeen and two against the spread for teams
Speaker 3: that are undefeated, like you would think at home favorites
Speaker 3: off of a bye covered by almost two touchdowns per game.
Speaker 3: So that supports your Eagles position here. I do agree
Speaker 3: with you that if the Eagles build a lead, it's
Speaker 3: bad news for the Steelers. You just I don't know
Speaker 3: when we're gonna be able to sell the Eagles because
Speaker 3: their schedule is so bad. But they are built to
Speaker 3: play from a head, and I think that they're going
Speaker 3: to be vulnerable when they play a team that actually
Speaker 3: gets out in front against them, which hasn't happened. It
Speaker 3: might not happen often until they get to the playoffs.
Speaker 4: Yeah, stuck you, that is a wild trend. Seventeen and
Speaker 4: two and so reading here, head coach Mike Tomlin has
Speaker 4: already said it's highly unlike we see Watt this week.
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's assumed he's not gonna play. Okay, but
Speaker 3: I'm just saying, like everyone, he's highly highly doubtful. But
Speaker 3: he's been he was highly highly doubtful with a concussion
Speaker 3: like two days after protocol. I'm just saying it would
Speaker 3: be shocking if he played, but I personally wouldn't be shocked.
Speaker 1: Okay, now, how about this game for you here, stuck
Speaker 1: he this. I really wish this line was three because
Speaker 1: then it gets very easy for me to take the
Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings. But it's three and a half and at
Speaker 1: some places might go to four here versus the Cardinals
Speaker 1: in Minnesota.
Speaker 2: Are you taking Kyler Murray and the Cards hero.
Speaker 1: Or are you taking the Minnesota Vikings, who somehow are
Speaker 1: are Are they.
Speaker 2: Still five and one? Did they have a bye week
Speaker 2: last week?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Five, and they're five and one. They're a paper tiger.
Speaker 3: I mean they're five and one coming off of bye,
Speaker 3: and by the way, doesn't mean as much here Cardinals
Speaker 3: coming off the mini bye. They played on Thursday night.
Speaker 3: Forever reason, this Cardinals team just likes going on the road.
Speaker 3: I don't know, if they're just distracted at home Cliff
Speaker 3: is with his models and Kyler's playing call of duty.
Speaker 3: I don't know. But on the road he's fifteen three
Speaker 3: and two against the spread as an underdog, He's won
Speaker 3: eight straight outright, They're just how they perform on the
Speaker 3: road versus at home is crazy. This is when you
Speaker 3: want to back Cliff Kingsbury, who I'm not a fan
Speaker 3: of or not, on the second half of the season
Speaker 3: with Hopkins in the lineup on the road as an underdog,
Speaker 3: the numbers with him without Hopkins are stunning for Kyler Murray.
Speaker 3: I mean, even if you remove Kyler Murray, the Cardinals
Speaker 3: in general overall with him without Hopkins twenty seven points
Speaker 3: per game in twenty seven games, and I think in
Speaker 3: thirteen without them they're averaging eighteen. It's almost a ten
Speaker 3: point differential. And then Kyler Murray personally is but nine
Speaker 3: to two with a seventy two percent completion percentage of
Speaker 3: twenty touchdowns, nine interceptions, two seventy five a game with Hopkins.
Speaker 3: Without him, he's three and seven sixty four percent two thirty. Uh,
Speaker 3: just start conscience. You'd see it last week when he
Speaker 3: was in the game. He you know, had ten catches,
Speaker 3: reliable third down target, opens up kind of the outside
Speaker 3: and opens up the middle. It's just a much different
Speaker 3: offense with him in it. And then I think that
Speaker 3: they solve some things on the offensive line. They've been
Speaker 3: dealing with injuries. They moved some guys around, put in
Speaker 3: Billy Price at center. They got their best protection of
Speaker 3: the year. They're back up to Hudson is horrendous. He
Speaker 3: played three or four games the worst center in the league.
Speaker 3: Got him out of there last week and that did Wonders.
Speaker 3: And I also think their defense is a bit underrated
Speaker 3: in the market. They got torched. Torch the worst performance
Speaker 3: of the season by any team against expectations by the market.
Speaker 3: But it was in Week one against the Chiefs, but
Speaker 3: they were missing like six starters and they were playing
Speaker 3: the Cheets on a good day. They got destroyed. Their
Speaker 3: twentieth and EPA per play for the season. But if
Speaker 3: you're removed from Week two on their ninth. So I
Speaker 3: think their defense is improving healthier, is a little better
Speaker 3: than the market assumes. And this Vikings team that they've
Speaker 3: won four in a row and they're really rustling their laws.
Speaker 3: On that week one win over green Bay, it's like
Speaker 3: green Bay missed then eighty our touchdown to start the game,
Speaker 3: and look, green Bay is nowhere close to who we
Speaker 3: thought they would be. You're their four wins. They beat
Speaker 3: Miami and the stringing then second stary quarterback. They got
Speaker 3: out game four sixty to two thirty six and a
Speaker 3: half to four and a half yards per play advantage
Speaker 3: form Miami, who turned it over three times at one
Speaker 3: hundred yards and penalties. The next week they beat the
Speaker 3: Lions dead even games just should have lost, I mean
Speaker 3: the Dan Campbell decision late on that kick and then
Speaker 3: they score two late touchdowns. Then they beat the Saints
Speaker 3: dead even game statistically with their backup in London on
Speaker 3: a you know game game out of a field goal late.
Speaker 3: And then the Bears, the Bears historically bad offense, it's
Speaker 3: five point eight yards per play each one possession game.
Speaker 3: I know that they were up big early, but that
Speaker 3: that's it. They beat the Bears. The Saints, the Lions,
Speaker 3: and the Dolphins back up all by one possession, getting
Speaker 3: outplayed in most of those games. So yeah, I don't
Speaker 3: this defense isn't that good. And I think that this
Speaker 3: is a decent matchup for the Cardinals. And yeah, Kyler
Speaker 3: and Cliff on the road as a dog with Hopkins
Speaker 3: in the lineup right before their downfall when they're gonna
Speaker 3: lose like six and road end of the air.
Speaker 1: Very important to note though, the key stat Call of
Speaker 1: Duty releases tonight.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but early release. I tweeted about this last week.
Speaker 3: I'm all over this early release. You could pay for
Speaker 3: the early release last Thursday, So Kyler played Thursday.
Speaker 2: That was that was. It was only the campaign. The
Speaker 2: multiplayer releases tonight, Duty.
Speaker 3: Man, my handicap is wrong on the Call of Duty.
Speaker 3: Maybe I gotta buy out?
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, gotta buy out. The multiplayer drops tonight.
Speaker 1: That man is not sleeping for the next seventy two hours,
Speaker 1: I guarantee you, and he's not thinking about football here.
Speaker 2: Other than that, absolutely love your take on this game.
Speaker 1: I am not ready to jump aboard the Minnesota Vikings
Speaker 1: train right now.
Speaker 2: Matt any thoughts here.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I feel like everyone knows Cardinals road underdog.
Speaker 4: This is a spot. You don't have to tell me twice.
Speaker 3: I don't.
Speaker 4: I don't need to know anything else except Kyler Murray
Speaker 4: on the road as an underdog. You know, as suck said,
Speaker 4: fifteen right, fifteen three and two against the spread in
Speaker 4: that spot for or Cliff Kingsbury's Cardinals. Absolutely amazing trend there.
Speaker 4: I bet this on the look ahead because I was
Speaker 4: just like, you know what, like I don't care what
Speaker 4: happens this weekend. I know I'm gonna be on the spot.
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna grab this number. So I had it
Speaker 4: at five and a half. When I grabbed it, I
Speaker 4: would still bet it a three and a half. I
Speaker 4: absolutely am was stuck on this on this bet here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, anything anything over three, I like to.
Speaker 1: The next game up for you here, Matt. We got
Speaker 1: a pair of them to finish us off. The Indianapolis
Speaker 1: Coats with Sam Ellinger quarterback, are gonna be taken on
Speaker 1: the Washington Comedies.
Speaker 2: Are you riding with Sam?
Speaker 4: Yeah? As disgusting as it is, I am going with
Speaker 4: a six rounder who has never had an NFL start
Speaker 4: before as a home favorite. I will do it. And
Speaker 4: for me, it's you know, it's the rush offense that
Speaker 4: in theory he can provide. You know, Matt Ryan, he
Speaker 4: hasn't been great this year, you know, six justed yards
Speaker 4: pertent number twenty nine, but the Colts running game has
Speaker 4: been even worse, right astoundingly. They're bottom three in rushing
Speaker 4: efficiency and now they're taking on a defense that's top
Speaker 4: ten against the run, you know, basically in whatever you
Speaker 4: know defensive run efficiency metric you're looking at. But maybe
Speaker 4: with Ellinger he can help out the ground game. You know,
Speaker 4: six rounder making his first start, so obviously that's disgusting,
Speaker 4: but in the preseason he was pretty good passing the
Speaker 4: ball twenty four to twenty nine, two hundred and eighty
Speaker 4: nine yards and four touchdowns. And you know, with Frank Reich,
Speaker 4: you know, guiding him if that's an actual thing, maybe
Speaker 4: he plays within the system well enough to go against
Speaker 4: the Commander's defense that is number twenty nine in past DVOA.
Speaker 4: And then the big thing is that he's got the mobility,
Speaker 4: the explosiveness that Matt Ryan has never had. And in
Speaker 4: four years at college he was a pretty good runner.
Speaker 4: You know, four hundred and fifty nine carries two hundred well, yeah,
Speaker 4: twenty five hundred and ten yards on the ground, thirty
Speaker 4: three rushing touchdowns, that's excluding sacks, and more importantly, one
Speaker 4: hundred and seventy three scrambles, and that like really is
Speaker 4: the difference that in theory, hopefully he can turn some
Speaker 4: of those those pressure dropbacks in sacks for Matt Ryan
Speaker 4: into chain moving improvised carries, right, and so I think
Speaker 4: that will be that will be the difference here in
Speaker 4: this game. So this number was four on Sunday Monday,
Speaker 4: you know, four on Sunday night and Monday morning. Within
Speaker 4: an hour of the announcement that Matt Ryan had been benched,
Speaker 4: it moved down to two. It met resistance, and now
Speaker 4: it's back up to the key number three where you
Speaker 4: see it in most sportsbooks kind of you know, jumping
Speaker 4: around between three and two and a half. I think
Speaker 4: the fact that it hit two and then moved back
Speaker 4: up to three, like that's the sign that the market
Speaker 4: thinks Ellinger can play or at least keep this game close.
Speaker 4: So I think the the explosiveness that he adds and
Speaker 4: the mobility that for me moves this towards the Colts
Speaker 4: at two and a half.
Speaker 1: Stucky is Matt crazy or is he on to something here?
Speaker 1: Because I am inclined to go with if you have
Speaker 1: an offensive line that is struggling, you want to get
Speaker 1: the quarterback with mobility instead of the one who is
Speaker 1: an eighty nine year old statue.
Speaker 4: But are you.
Speaker 2: Confident in Sam Ellinger in his first start here?
Speaker 3: I don't know. Some people can get the I don't know.
Speaker 3: I do think that there's the backup quarterbacks in general
Speaker 3: and their first starter undervalue, Like the market tends to
Speaker 3: think that the backup is much worse than the starter.
Speaker 3: I'd never like, I'm never on the right side of
Speaker 3: those like Brett Rippon last week I was on the Broncos.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I do think that his mobility can bring
Speaker 3: an added dimension to this offense. Also, it's like, from
Speaker 3: a preparation standpoint, they're going to run some different looks.
Speaker 3: You don't have a lot of film on them, so
Speaker 3: you know it's like, hey, we know what to do
Speaker 3: with Matt Ryan on second third long he just blits
Speaker 3: them and he can't move and then he throws a pick.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think his mobility will add here. I
Speaker 3: don't know. The Colts games are so weird, like the
Speaker 3: only thing I know about, Like they always lose it
Speaker 3: to Titans. Always bet them. They always play the Titans
Speaker 3: and loose to them, and they don't cover somehow on
Speaker 3: like Flukes. Then they always lose to the Jags. I
Speaker 3: do always have the Jags in Jacksonville, but all the
Speaker 3: results are so random to me, Like they beat the
Speaker 3: Chiefs at home, they should have lost that game. Then
Speaker 3: they covered against the Jags, like the last second touchdown somehow.
Speaker 3: I don't know here, I'm gonna heads of Colts. It's Colts,
Speaker 3: all right, there you go that that would be my line.
Speaker 3: I have no clue, no clue. But with this line,
Speaker 3: cup down to three, Colts are nothing and Ellinger's mobility
Speaker 3: and the unknown for the prep here can only help
Speaker 3: the Colts.
Speaker 2: Give me Taylor Heinekey. I'm taking Taylor Heinekey and the
Speaker 2: Commanders in this box.
Speaker 3: That's another thing is there's so much variance in this game, Like, yeah,
Speaker 3: what are you going to get from Ellen when he
Speaker 3: throws it? And Heineke's of high variant quarterback, He's gonna
Speaker 3: make some risky throws. He might hit some he might
Speaker 3: throw a pick six, like last week he had a
Speaker 3: pick six and then there should have been another you know,
Speaker 3: when he got stripped, but there was a lucky a
Speaker 3: bad defensive holding call on the packers. Packers getting really unlucky,
Speaker 3: like you mentioned these unlucky Packer things by the way,
Speaker 3: but he's he's gonna be. You could get bad Heinekey
Speaker 3: here and we'll have two turnaments that cost them the
Speaker 3: game easily. But that could happen with Ellinger. You can
Speaker 3: have good Heinekey. I don't know. This game is very
Speaker 3: very weird.
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Speaker 2: Now back to the show now.
Speaker 1: Matt You will ride with Sam Allinger in his first
Speaker 1: start as a sixth round pick. You will not ride
Speaker 1: with the once in future king Geno Smith going up
Speaker 1: against the Giants here Seattle laying three points. Are you
Speaker 1: believing in Big Blue and the Giants here in this spot?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: I mean Geno Smith awesome. The career Genaisance has been
Speaker 4: something to behold and I think it is real. But yeah,
Speaker 4: I'm I'm on the Giants here. You know, Daniel Jones
Speaker 4: thirteen and four against the spread as a road underdog,
Speaker 4: a little Kyler esque in that trend there, and yeah,
Speaker 4: it's for me. The Giants run offense against the Seahawks
Speaker 4: run defense. You know they want to run the ball.
Speaker 4: You know they do it at fifty eight percent rate,
Speaker 4: which is hard to do in today's NFL, But you know,
Speaker 4: they're just committed to the run. And I guess you know,
Speaker 4: you have Saquon Barkley, you have Daniel Jones, You're gonna
Speaker 4: be running the ball. You know, Barkley is the league
Speaker 4: leader with one hundred and forty three carries. I think
Speaker 4: you know, with him, he's the best back in the league,
Speaker 4: if not the best back in the league. A top
Speaker 4: three back right now, like certainly come back player of
Speaker 4: the Year Gino Smith aside. So I'm impressed with what
Speaker 4: he's doing. And you know Daniel Jones, I mean, he
Speaker 4: is a legit running threat. He's had six carries in
Speaker 4: every game this year. Among quarterbacks, he's number four and
Speaker 4: rush attemts number three in rush yards. I mean, obviously
Speaker 4: last week he and Barkley both had one hundred yards
Speaker 4: on the ground. Like that's that's something you don't see
Speaker 4: that often, and when you do, it's normally like Lamar
Speaker 4: Jackson doing it. But you know, we got that last week.
Speaker 4: And the Giants, Yeah, they're going to be without right
Speaker 4: tackle Evan Neil, they might be without their left guard.
Speaker 4: You know, I don't think either one of those guys
Speaker 4: has a big run blocking edge over the guys who
Speaker 4: were backing them up. And as mediocre as the Giants
Speaker 4: offense has been, they've been really good running the ball.
Speaker 4: You know that that is clearly the strength. They're number
Speaker 4: three in rush EPA for play. The Seahawks defense is
Speaker 4: average against the run, number eighteen in rush EPA. And
Speaker 4: you know, I have the Giants power rated ahead of
Speaker 4: the Seahawks primarily because you know, I do trust Brian
Speaker 4: Dable more than I trust Pete Carroll is his situational
Speaker 4: decision maker. And as strong as the home field advantages
Speaker 4: at Lumenfield, I think that that is, if not the
Speaker 4: strongest home field advantage in the league, like top three,
Speaker 4: I still think that no team in today's NFL has
Speaker 4: a three point home field advantage. So if the Giants
Speaker 4: can run the ball effectively against the Seahawks, I think they're.
Speaker 2: Going to cover here, Stucky, what are you thinking in
Speaker 2: this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah, tough game, it's uh, I mean, look, you got
Speaker 3: the Giants are the luckiest seem in the NFL. Like
Speaker 3: we actually that with our Lucky metric by my guy
Speaker 3: Sean Kerner, and like they've been the luckiest. I mean
Speaker 3: everyone knows that. I mean they but some of that
Speaker 3: goes to coaching, I mean, and that's what they were
Speaker 3: my favorite season win total over before the season because
Speaker 3: I thought the coaching upgrade, they went from really bad
Speaker 3: to really good. And they also had horrible injury luck
Speaker 3: last year. The injuries are now a bit concerning, you know,
Speaker 3: tight end to just a lot of guys out that
Speaker 3: are blocking for you at once. But I mean Look,
Speaker 3: they beat the Panthers by three at home, they beat
Speaker 3: you know, they come back to beat the Titans on
Speaker 3: the road by one. They lose the Cooper rush. They
Speaker 3: beat the Bears one possession at home. They come back
Speaker 3: and beat the Packers that they were down double digits
Speaker 3: the fourth quarter. They down double digits the fourth quarter
Speaker 3: against the Ravens, like they got dominated that game was
Speaker 3: like seven to three and a half yards per play.
Speaker 3: Come back again to beat the Giants. They're outscoring teams
Speaker 3: fifty five to ten in the fourth quarter if you
Speaker 3: remove an intentional safety. Just insane. So eventually that luck
Speaker 3: is gonna run up. But they're well coached and so yeah,
Speaker 3: from a number of perspective, I can't really get here,
Speaker 3: but it's an awful spot for the Giants. Like you know,
Speaker 3: the back to back road games from Jacksonville out the Seattle. Historically,
Speaker 3: teams haven't done that well. And I think this and
Speaker 3: the Giants defense has not been good. They are like
Speaker 3: last week, they get up seven yards per play some
Speaker 3: not only about seventeen points. There's a lot of holes there.
Speaker 3: Gino has looked good against the Blitz too, and that's
Speaker 3: all the Giants they're gonna play man and they're gonna
Speaker 3: play Blotz dude, the two highest rates in the league.
Speaker 3: So I'd be more confident in the Seahawks offense here,
Speaker 3: although now you have an injury to one of your
Speaker 3: best receivers, so it's yeah, this is this is a
Speaker 3: weird game for me because it's two teams that have
Speaker 3: definitely overperformed. But the interesting thing to me, the interesting
Speaker 3: unit in this game is the Seahawks defense. And they
Speaker 3: were horrendous. I thought they were gonna be one of
Speaker 3: the worst in the league, and they were thirty first
Speaker 3: DVOI JUSTI for opponent up until the past two weeks,
Speaker 3: and then over the past two weeks they're number one
Speaker 3: in the NFL. Yeah, and they played with the de
Speaker 3: Charters and the Cardinals, and they have some of these
Speaker 3: young corners, so like you could point to reasons why
Speaker 3: they would be improving. They got a lot of young
Speaker 3: pieces Dreik Wooland on one side is everyone talks about
Speaker 3: Sauce Gardner. He is turning into a shutdown cornerback, same
Speaker 3: mold of the like Richard Sherman. He's the long, lanky
Speaker 3: cornerback that Pete Carroll's always loved. You got Kobe Bryant
Speaker 3: in the slot, and you know they're Their defense is
Speaker 3: playing a lot better and it wasn't against like terrible
Speaker 3: offenses like the Jets. Sorry for the dig So, I
Speaker 3: don't know. Is the Seewks defense improve. It's again, it's
Speaker 3: two games. There's a lot of noise. Weird things happen
Speaker 3: in the NFL on a week week basis. But I'm
Speaker 3: interested in watching with the Seahawks defense does over the
Speaker 3: next few games. I don't mind taking the Giants on
Speaker 3: the number. My gut and the spot says the Seahawks
Speaker 3: get it done. But you can make a case for
Speaker 3: either side. Tough game.
Speaker 1: I'm inclined to go against Matt here and bet with
Speaker 1: the Geno Smith experience, but I could see it going
Speaker 1: both ways. I completely agree this is going to be
Speaker 1: a tough one here.
Speaker 2: Matt.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Seattle first half, Just go Seattle. You
Speaker 3: what about Seattle? Just bet Seattle first half before the
Speaker 3: Giants sports down voodoo comes into effect.
Speaker 2: I think that's a really good idea.
Speaker 1: But that is going to do it for us here, Stucky,
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us today one more time,
Speaker 1: where can people find you and all the great work
Speaker 1: you're doing around the internet.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's Stucky too on Twitter and on the Action
Speaker 3: Network at just search Stucky when you're on there, and
Speaker 3: I'm I think that's a campus podcast college football if
Speaker 3: you're into that. That'll be out tomorrow actually Nework Podcasts
Speaker 3: for NFL. But yeah, just check me out on Twitter
Speaker 3: mainly Stucky too. I'll let you know where you can
Speaker 3: find any of my stuff on a weekly basis.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Stucky one taken.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Stucky's take Stucky was well I want to
Speaker 3: just Stucky, which was taken obviously. And then Stucky one
Speaker 3: was this guy and like, I've always heard that Twitter
Speaker 3: purges accounts when they're not active, but Stucky one, let's see,
Speaker 3: I haven't checked in a while. Yeah, Stucky one is
Speaker 3: still an account. June two thousand and nine, he has
Speaker 3: and I joined in like twenty ten, twenty eleven. He
Speaker 3: has one tweet on June third, two thousand and nine,
Speaker 3: and it just says mm and then period you. So
Speaker 3: like someone I think was messing like what are you
Speaker 3: up to and he's like, not much you but he
Speaker 3: tweeted it out. That's his only tweet he is like
Speaker 3: no followers, no following, and I messed it once like
Speaker 3: let me get this, Uh can I get Stucky one?
Speaker 3: But now uh always been Stucky too.
Speaker 2: Well, you got to code with the brand at some point.
Speaker 4: Yeah, a couple of things. I'm in a similar boat,
Speaker 4: Matthew Friedman, just some guy March two thousand and nine,
Speaker 4: hasn't tweeted anything, thanks Friedman. Number one, similar situation, but
Speaker 4: number two the NFL pod that Stucky does with Chris
Speaker 4: Ravon where they break down the slate and they do
Speaker 4: their Sunday six pack look at Thursday Night Football. One
Speaker 4: of the best betting shows I think across the industry
Speaker 4: each week. It's one of my must listens. Absolutely love
Speaker 4: that show.
Speaker 2: And Chris Raybond also friend of the show.
Speaker 1: Yeah all right, well that is going to do it
Speaker 1: for us here one more time. Stucky, thank you so
Speaker 1: much for joining us. And this is actually going to
Speaker 1: do it for me as well, Matt. As you alluded
Speaker 1: to last week last show when we had Rufus Peabody on,
Speaker 1: I am in fact headed over to join him at
Speaker 1: Unabated and this will be my last betting Pros podcast
Speaker 1: here with you and Matt. I just wanted to say,
Speaker 1: first off, to everyone at BP, it has been an
Speaker 1: awesome experience being here with all of you, Joe, Derek, Chris,
Speaker 1: so many names, even in my short time here, but
Speaker 1: especially to you guys that have listened and been fans
Speaker 1: of the show, and absolutely most importantly to you, Matt.
Speaker 1: Working with you over the past two NFL seasons, first
Speaker 1: at FTN and then here has been nothing short of
Speaker 1: some of the most fun that I have had in
Speaker 1: this industry. And I am sorely going to miss being
Speaker 1: able to do this show with you, and I certainly
Speaker 1: know that we will keep in touch. But I truly
Speaker 1: cannot be more grateful for anything that anyone has done
Speaker 1: for my career more than I am to you and
Speaker 1: everything that you have been able to give me in
Speaker 1: terms of these opportunities to be here and doing this
Speaker 1: with you, And I just wanted to.
Speaker 2: Say a very very big thank you to you, especially yeah,
Speaker 2: in my final show.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's awesome that you're going to have an opportunity
Speaker 4: to work with Rufus and Captain Jack and everyone else
Speaker 4: there innovated, so great opportunity and I'm sure you will
Speaker 4: crush it there. And yeah, you know At some point
Speaker 4: we'll have you back on the show.
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to it already, but for now, guys,
Speaker 1: best of luck this weekend with the NFL weekend slate,
Speaker 1: and as always, let's cash some tickets.