WEBVTT - Week 8 NFL Best Bets with Stuckey (Ep 230) 0:00:00.280 --> 0:00:03.880 Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. 0:00:04.000 --> 0:00:06.640 It is time for some Week eight action here. 0:00:06.720 --> 0:00:09.280 We are at the halfway point of the quasi halfway 0:00:09.320 --> 0:00:12.280 point of the season. Here and of course, as always, 0:00:12.360 --> 0:00:14.640 joining me here to break down the weekend slate. We 0:00:14.640 --> 0:00:18.120 have none other than the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman, and 0:00:18.320 --> 0:00:21.920 joining us today none other from the Action Network than 0:00:22.079 --> 0:00:25.239 Stucky himself. How are you doing today? Thank you so 0:00:25.320 --> 0:00:28.880 much for joining us here, Jill. 0:00:28.640 --> 0:00:32.080 Well, it's we're in the heart of football seasons. You 0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:35.199 follow college football, I guess I'll do it. I'll shameless 0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:37.879 plug two for pig Bets on Campus podcast, getting ready 0:00:37.920 --> 0:00:40.080 to do that later today. But if you follow college 0:00:40.080 --> 0:00:43.120 football and the NFL, we have at least one football 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:46.800 game in each of the next twenty seven days. That's 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:47.840 a beautiful time of the year. 0:00:48.760 --> 0:00:50.800 And then that's going to dovetail right into the World Cup, 0:00:50.840 --> 0:00:53.920 so you get even more other football action going on there. 0:00:54.440 --> 0:00:56.920 This is the best sports time we have everything going 0:00:56.960 --> 0:00:59.640 on here. Baseball is almost over, we got the NBA 0:00:59.760 --> 0:01:03.000 and somebody should probably tell the Lakers that NHL is 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:07.319 kicked as to drop the puck on their season. This 0:01:07.360 --> 0:01:09.720 is full sports season here. It doesn't get any better 0:01:09.720 --> 0:01:12.280 than this, ladies and gentlemen, And so today we're gonna 0:01:12.280 --> 0:01:15.720 be talking about some of these NFL games here, Matt. 0:01:16.080 --> 0:01:18.000 The first one you have up on your list might 0:01:18.040 --> 0:01:20.200 be one of my biggest no touch games of the 0:01:20.280 --> 0:01:23.720 year because I have absolutely zero ankling here. You've been 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:26.560 low on the Raiders this all season. Their big win 0:01:26.800 --> 0:01:29.280 against the Texans doesn't do it for you. Here you 0:01:29.360 --> 0:01:32.160 are taking the Saints as one and a half point 0:01:32.200 --> 0:01:35.520 dogs at home this week against the Raiders. 0:01:36.360 --> 0:01:39.840 Yeah, still very much like the Saints in the spot. 0:01:40.480 --> 0:01:43.480 You know, that offense with Andy Dalton at quarterback for 0:01:43.520 --> 0:01:45.480 some reason, maybe it's just because he's avoiding some of 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:48.880 the massive turnovers you know we've seen Jameis Winston, but 0:01:49.160 --> 0:01:51.400 that offense has been pretty good, averaging thirty one points 0:01:51.440 --> 0:01:54.680 per game with Dalton, and Dalton for his career has 0:01:54.720 --> 0:01:56.800 been pretty good as an underdog forty one thirty one 0:01:56.800 --> 0:01:59.600 and two against the spread, going against Derek Carr, who's 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:02.280 been fifteen to twenty five and one against the spread 0:02:02.360 --> 0:02:05.120 as a favorite. So you know, trans pointing in opposite 0:02:05.120 --> 0:02:07.320 directions there, But just in terms of on field matchup, 0:02:07.840 --> 0:02:12.000 the Saints rush offense versus the Raiders rush defense. I 0:02:12.000 --> 0:02:13.880 think that for me is going to be the big 0:02:13.880 --> 0:02:15.919 difference here. The Saints have one of the league's best 0:02:16.000 --> 0:02:18.720 running offenses and the Raiders are mediocre against the run, 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:21.520 you know, often allowing opponents to stay on schedule and 0:02:21.560 --> 0:02:24.519 sustained drives on the ground. They're number seventeen in rush 0:02:24.560 --> 0:02:28.280 success rate, number twenty in rush DVOA, and you know, 0:02:28.360 --> 0:02:31.680 for the Saints offense, they're top three in both of 0:02:31.680 --> 0:02:34.160 those categories. You know, the Raiders are exploitable via the 0:02:34.160 --> 0:02:36.640 air as well, bottom six and both drop back EPA 0:02:37.040 --> 0:02:38.880 and drop back success rate. But you know, with the 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:42.000 pass catching injuries the Saints have, I think they're likely 0:02:42.080 --> 0:02:44.440 to rely more on the running game, and with the 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:47.040 edge that they have in that area, I think they're 0:02:47.080 --> 0:02:49.440 going to keep the contest close. And the Thursday look 0:02:49.440 --> 0:02:52.160 Ahead market the Saints were minus one and a half 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:54.480 and I still think that they should be favored here. 0:02:54.520 --> 0:02:56.200 I have this at Saints minus one. 0:02:56.639 --> 0:02:56.880 Two. 0:02:56.960 --> 0:02:57.280 Things. 0:02:57.440 --> 0:03:01.240 Number one, the rush bit completely on with especially now 0:03:01.280 --> 0:03:03.640 that the Raiders are also losing Jonathan Hankin as they 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:08.240 traded him to the Dallas Cowboys. Here, this rush defense 0:03:08.320 --> 0:03:10.880 is very exploitable here, and I fully expect to see 0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:13.160 a lot of Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara. 0:03:13.320 --> 0:03:15.840 Andy Dalton's been avoiding the major turnovers though. Didn't you 0:03:15.840 --> 0:03:17.280 have two picks sixes last week? 0:03:17.800 --> 0:03:18.080 Yeah? 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:20.080 But one of those wasn't his fault, you know, Like 0:03:20.120 --> 0:03:23.200 for the most part, he hasn't been Jameis Winston, which 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:25.960 is like the threshold for whether you get to start 0:03:26.000 --> 0:03:27.079 over Jameis Winston. 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:31.400 But all I'm saying is I'm a little worried if 0:03:31.440 --> 0:03:33.600 we do see another turnover too. I want to know 0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:36.000 how long the leash is with him, because apparently coach 0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:38.880 Dennis Allen was saying that he's going to start, but 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:41.040 Jamis is healthy, and we had heard for weeks with 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:43.280 this Saints team that Jamis is going to start when 0:03:43.280 --> 0:03:46.560 he's back and healthy. At how cool If Andy Dalton 0:03:46.600 --> 0:03:47.960 gets off to a bad start, do you think they 0:03:47.960 --> 0:03:49.080 put Jamis in this game? 0:03:49.680 --> 0:03:51.240 Maybe, but I think it would have to be a 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:53.800 really bad start. They did say that it was performance 0:03:53.920 --> 0:03:56.200 at this point and not health as to why Dalton 0:03:56.280 --> 0:03:57.640 is starting, Yeah. 0:03:57.560 --> 0:03:59.040 Stucky, what are you thinking on this one? 0:04:00.800 --> 0:04:05.280 Yeah? It's this is a It's a tough handicap, mainly 0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:08.880 because of all the injuries that New Orleans of stuffered 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:12.520 a key positions right secondary, wide receiver. I show i'd 0:04:12.560 --> 0:04:13.880 make this a true coin flip. So if I had 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:15.840 a bet, and I bet the Saints, who have actually 0:04:15.840 --> 0:04:18.880 been pretty good in terms of efficiency on both sides 0:04:18.880 --> 0:04:21.960 of the ball, they've been the unluckiest team in turnovers, 0:04:22.040 --> 0:04:24.839 which tend to regress over the course of the season, 0:04:25.040 --> 0:04:27.039 especially if you know you don't have Winston in there. 0:04:27.560 --> 0:04:30.880 I mean, Dalton's two pick sixes last week basically cost 0:04:30.920 --> 0:04:32.359 some the game. There's been a couple other games like that. 0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:36.640 We're just absolute game swinging penalties. They've not only just 0:04:36.720 --> 0:04:41.560 numerically have they had the worst turnover luck in the NFL. 0:04:41.640 --> 0:04:43.080 It's like when they come you have to like if 0:04:43.120 --> 0:04:45.720 you dig in the penalty in turnovers, like they matter 0:04:45.760 --> 0:04:47.240 a lot more than you know, a Hail Mary at 0:04:47.279 --> 0:04:48.720 the end of the first half compared to like you're 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:52.880 driving and there's a pick six. So but one thing 0:04:52.920 --> 0:04:56.880 that gives me pause here is the Saints defensive line. 0:04:57.400 --> 0:04:59.839 Theyre just haven't been They're not getting any pressure number one, 0:05:00.400 --> 0:05:05.520 and if you look, Josh Jacobs looks rejuvenated. The Raiders' 0:05:05.520 --> 0:05:08.800 offensive line is actually I think they're number one in 0:05:08.880 --> 0:05:13.520 adjusted lineyards and they've been really good and run blocking. 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:16.160 The Saints are number two. But then if you look 0:05:16.160 --> 0:05:18.200 at the other side of the ball, the Raiders defensive 0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:19.920 line has actually been better against Rent. I don't know 0:05:19.920 --> 0:05:22.200 what's going on with the Saints defensive line. Maybe some 0:05:22.240 --> 0:05:25.679 guys are over the hill dealing with injuries. I'm not sure, 0:05:26.120 --> 0:05:29.840 but generally speaking, the Saints defense will shut down the run, 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:34.039 so I would like this matchup from that perspective, but 0:05:34.120 --> 0:05:37.560 it just hasn't really played out that way this year. 0:05:37.600 --> 0:05:40.000 But yeah, I make this a true coin flip. Saints 0:05:40.000 --> 0:05:41.760 at hun they probably have some aggression coming their way. 0:05:41.760 --> 0:05:44.800 They've been really good from an efficiency standpoint. There's just 0:05:44.839 --> 0:05:48.360 a lot of injury uncertainty with the Saints, but yeah, 0:05:48.360 --> 0:05:49.440 I think it's Saints are passed. 0:05:50.200 --> 0:05:53.160 Also important to note here, Derek Carr, limited in practice 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:55.560 on Wednesday, was dealing with a back injury stemming from 0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:59.600 last week's game. He's still gonna play, but the last 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:01.640 thing you want with that offensive line as a quarterback 0:06:01.720 --> 0:06:04.480 like Derek Carr, who's even more immobile for this one. 0:06:04.560 --> 0:06:06.760 That could be a big problem here for him. The 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:10.040 next game up on the board, the Lions and the Dolphins. Here, 0:06:10.040 --> 0:06:12.440 the Lions, they're gonna be getting four and a half 0:06:12.520 --> 0:06:14.880 points in this one, three and a half points in 0:06:14.960 --> 0:06:18.040 this one right now at home. But Stucky, you had 0:06:18.080 --> 0:06:19.080 them at four and a half. Do you still like 0:06:19.200 --> 0:06:19.960 them at three and a half? 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:22.040 I wish I had him fortnite you said four and 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:24.240 a half. I almost ran to I was about to 0:06:24.240 --> 0:06:26.200 pull up my phone. I was like, well, I'm about 0:06:26.200 --> 0:06:28.920 to add to the Lions. Yeah, I like the Lions here. 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:30.560 I mean, if you look at what they've done when 0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:32.719 their off, it's been full. Everyone's jumped off this bandwagon. 0:06:32.720 --> 0:06:34.440 Now they're all on it early in the year. But 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:36.360 if you look at what they've done all year, I mean, 0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:39.719 they've put up early in their thirty five, thirty six, 0:06:39.839 --> 0:06:41.800 forty eight, and it's a team that was regularly scoring 0:06:41.839 --> 0:06:46.200 over thirty points at home indoors where Jared Goff isn't 0:06:46.200 --> 0:06:48.520 a pumpkin. And then they have one bad game at 0:06:48.560 --> 0:06:51.320 New England, you know, but they were missing some key 0:06:51.360 --> 0:06:54.320 guys and golf outdoors is a great spot for the 0:06:54.320 --> 0:06:58.239 Patriots even and then last week they go to Dallas. 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:00.640 The yardage about equal was five turn to one. They 0:07:00.640 --> 0:07:02.040 were at the one to take the lead. I think 0:07:02.080 --> 0:07:04.160 early the fourth quarter fumbled at the one yard line. 0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:06.600 I think their defense showed out well. I actually have 0:07:06.720 --> 0:07:08.880 some promise for their defense moving forward. It's been one 0:07:08.880 --> 0:07:11.000 of the worst in the league. But they inserted some 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:13.560 young guys into the lineup in the by you know, 0:07:13.600 --> 0:07:16.760 playing Josh Pascal more up front, Kirby Joseph I think 0:07:16.760 --> 0:07:18.760 he is playing well at safety. Then obviously everyone knows 0:07:18.840 --> 0:07:20.480 about Hutchinson, who had his best day as a pro 0:07:20.560 --> 0:07:22.320 last week, so did Jeff Akudah for what it's worth 0:07:22.360 --> 0:07:25.240 a corner knock and Rodrigez I think is a future 0:07:25.280 --> 0:07:28.160 studded linebackers. So I think their defense is going to improve, 0:07:28.200 --> 0:07:30.680 and it looked pretty good last week. And you have 0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:33.640 to remember last week the Lions didn't play with DeAndre Swift, 0:07:33.680 --> 0:07:37.040 who will play this week, and they lost him on 0:07:37.120 --> 0:07:38.880 Ross Saint Brown and like the first drive because he 0:07:38.920 --> 0:07:41.120 was spotted for a concussion which he didn't have. He's 0:07:41.160 --> 0:07:44.520 massive for that offense and especially this week, so we 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:46.640 know the Lions have a good offensive line. They're going 0:07:46.680 --> 0:07:49.480 up against a Dolphin secondary that is down to fourth 0:07:49.520 --> 0:07:52.440 and fifth string corners and Xavion Howard and they just 0:07:52.440 --> 0:07:54.920 lost Brandon Jones at safety. It's like a really important 0:07:54.960 --> 0:07:56.960 blitz piece for them. So I think the Lions will 0:07:56.960 --> 0:07:59.400 be able to move the ball here and for as 0:07:59.640 --> 0:08:02.440 you know, fun is the Miami offens is in four 0:08:02.520 --> 0:08:05.800 or five four or five to a starts. They haven't 0:08:05.840 --> 0:08:09.280 surpassed twenty one points. Like it's just not there's something 0:08:09.360 --> 0:08:12.160 missing there. But I think this, you know, the both 0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:14.360 teams are going to be able to score here. I'll 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:16.880 gladly take the three and a half at home with 0:08:16.960 --> 0:08:19.480 the Lions. I think defense is trending up, offense is 0:08:19.520 --> 0:08:22.440 now fully healthy. I think this is a good spot 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:23.560 to buy Detroit. 0:08:24.520 --> 0:08:26.840 Fifty one and a half points is the total matt 0:08:26.880 --> 0:08:29.640 any thoughts on that versus one of the sides here. 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:33.440 I know it's high, but it's it's the Lions and 0:08:33.800 --> 0:08:37.000 that defense going up against anyone is usually a recipe 0:08:37.000 --> 0:08:37.520 for an over. 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:41.360 Yeah, I mean, I don't I have it at fifty 0:08:41.400 --> 0:08:44.480 one point six, so you know, I'm basically right there, 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:47.080 but I you know, I am. I'm hopeful that Stucky 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:49.600 is right because in the look ahead market. I actually 0:08:49.600 --> 0:08:51.640 did get on the Lions at plus three, and then, 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:53.839 of course, like my luck, it moved to three and 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:55.800 a half instead of down. But I was, you know, 0:08:55.960 --> 0:08:58.240 at that point bullish enough on the Lions to think 0:08:58.240 --> 0:09:01.160 that this line might move down. And I'm westucky. I 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:03.640 thought they played actually pretty well against Dallas and it 0:09:03.679 --> 0:09:05.520 was only at the end of the game that things 0:09:05.640 --> 0:09:08.800 really unraveled for them. So if I had to bet 0:09:08.840 --> 0:09:11.560 this now, I would probably be on the Lions and 0:09:11.600 --> 0:09:13.000 not the Dolphins. 0:09:13.640 --> 0:09:16.040 I'm inclined to agree with you, especially for getting that 0:09:16.080 --> 0:09:17.760 three and a half. I like that hook with the 0:09:17.840 --> 0:09:20.959 Lions here at home. But Matt, how are you feeling 0:09:21.040 --> 0:09:24.640 about this next game up here? It's the big one? 0:09:24.720 --> 0:09:27.160 This is the super Bowl of the season, the matchup 0:09:27.200 --> 0:09:28.520 to end all matchups. 0:09:28.720 --> 0:09:32.480 For the first time in twenty one years, the New 0:09:32.600 --> 0:09:35.480 York Jets head into their battle with the New England 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:39.800 Patriots with a better record. Where are you going in 0:09:39.840 --> 0:09:41.160 this one? The Patriots are. 0:09:41.040 --> 0:09:46.640 Now laying two and a half points around town. Oh, 0:09:46.679 --> 0:09:48.680 I wanted to get to three so bad. I know 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:50.880 what's going to happen in this game. I've been predicting 0:09:50.920 --> 0:09:53.440 the downfall and I do argue that it happened last 0:09:53.520 --> 0:09:57.480 week losing Bresee Hall, but and Elijah Vera Tucker, that's 0:09:57.520 --> 0:10:00.400 just two brutal blows for this Jets offense. I think 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:04.280 they'll be okay in the future when and when Fant returns. 0:10:04.320 --> 0:10:07.360 This offensive line will get back to being somewhat okay. 0:10:07.360 --> 0:10:09.520 But man, these injuries has been brutal. Where are you 0:10:09.640 --> 0:10:11.600 going in this one? Are you going to lay the 0:10:11.600 --> 0:10:13.199 points with the Patriots on the road? 0:10:13.800 --> 0:10:16.040 Yeah, Stuckey, If you can't tell, Tom is a diehard 0:10:16.120 --> 0:10:19.640 Jets fan, so he's really filling it right now. Yeah, 0:10:19.679 --> 0:10:22.800 I'm on the Patriots. I think their pass defense going 0:10:22.840 --> 0:10:26.080 against the pass offense or lack of pass offense for 0:10:26.160 --> 0:10:28.240 the Jets, is the real difference in this game. And 0:10:28.559 --> 0:10:30.800 you know, the Jets offense is ranked top five and 0:10:30.840 --> 0:10:34.600 just one efficiency metric that's rush EPA per play, And 0:10:35.120 --> 0:10:38.280 in quarterback Zach Wilson's four starts, the Jets were actually 0:10:38.360 --> 0:10:41.760 number one in rush EPA per play, like giving him 0:10:41.800 --> 0:10:44.480 outstanding support in the ground game. But you know, for 0:10:44.520 --> 0:10:46.280 the year, the Jets are just number twenty two in 0:10:46.400 --> 0:10:50.240 rush success rate. Since Week four, they've improved, but still 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:52.120 only number thirteen. And you know what that means is 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:54.920 on a down to down basis, they're not really consistent. 0:10:54.960 --> 0:10:57.880 You know, They've just relying on the big play, especially 0:10:57.880 --> 0:10:59.839 from Briest Hall. And you know, now with him out, 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:03.000 you mentioned Elijah Berry Tucker out, he's really the team's 0:11:03.040 --> 0:11:05.839 best run blocker. I think the Jets are going to 0:11:05.880 --> 0:11:08.040 struggle on the ground, which means they need Wilson to 0:11:08.080 --> 0:11:11.000 do more through the air, and like that's that's a 0:11:11.000 --> 0:11:13.680 big ask, right, Like that feels like a problem given 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:16.080 that the Patriots defense is top six and every key 0:11:16.120 --> 0:11:19.120 pass efficiency metric and the Jets pass offense is no 0:11:19.200 --> 0:11:22.000 better than average. So if they can't run the ball, 0:11:22.440 --> 0:11:25.360 and if they can't pass the ball against the Patriots defense, 0:11:25.480 --> 0:11:29.080 like how are they going to score enough points to cover? So, yeah, 0:11:29.080 --> 0:11:30.720 I'm on the Patriots in this spot. 0:11:31.840 --> 0:11:33.480 Stucky, what are you feeling in this game? 0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:37.320 Yeah, I mean it's it's test to be Patriots here 0:11:37.720 --> 0:11:40.280 for what it's worth. Belichick thirty nine to seven and 0:11:40.320 --> 0:11:43.480 one against the spread after a loss. That's eighty four percent, 0:11:43.640 --> 0:11:46.480 including twenty six three and one against the spread on 0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:49.040 the road after a loss, covering by eleven points per game, 0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:51.560 that's ninety percent two and out this year to He's 0:11:51.559 --> 0:11:54.800 done it with Castle, He's done it with multiple quarterbacks. Yeah, 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:57.319 the Jets are whatever. The right with their fraudulent record 0:11:57.360 --> 0:11:59.360 is they've beaten they've won four and or I think 0:11:59.360 --> 0:12:01.520 against nothing backup quarterbacks. Last week, by the way, I 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:02.960 had a ten great of that game is a ten 0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:05.720 point loss for the Jets. Great at that. The seventeen 0:12:05.760 --> 0:12:07.960 point win against the Packers is a four point loss 0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:10.920 they had. They scored on two trick plays on offense, 0:12:11.000 --> 0:12:13.120 a punt block for a touchdown, block the field goal. 0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:15.760 This off the last two games that they won on 0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:19.840 the road, and they Zack Wilson had a twenty nine 0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:22.719 percent success rate and a thirty one percent success rate 0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:26.160 complete poverty. He's under He's the worst. I think he's 0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:29.400 the worst quarterback in the NFL by far, this guy. 0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:32.079 I mean, it's it's amazing that they're winning games with him, 0:12:32.080 --> 0:12:34.760 and they're winning games despite him facing back up quarterbacks 0:12:34.760 --> 0:12:37.880 getting some fortunate breaks under and the Patriots get a 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:41.000 lot of pressure too. Under pressure. This year, Zach Wilson 0:12:41.640 --> 0:12:45.800 is five of thirty one for forty yards five of 0:12:45.880 --> 0:12:49.240 thirty one for forty yards. He is completely lost back there, 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:52.360 and yeah, now you don't have Breis Hall to you know, 0:12:52.360 --> 0:12:54.839 break a seventy yard run here or there. I think 0:12:54.880 --> 0:12:56.280 the Jets are in for a long day. If you 0:12:56.320 --> 0:13:00.880 look at EPA plus completion percentage of expectation. Out of 0:13:00.920 --> 0:13:04.760 thirty six qualified quarterbacks, Jack Wilson's thirty fifth. The only 0:13:04.800 --> 0:13:09.480 one that's been worse this year is Baker Mayfield. So yeah, 0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:11.839 this is this is Patriots all the way in a 0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:16.880 bounce back spot. And yeah, the Jets are. Their medicine 0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:18.560 is coming and they're coming back down to Earth soon. 0:13:19.040 --> 0:13:20.880 I like their future. They've got some good young pieces, 0:13:20.920 --> 0:13:22.800 but their defense isn't as good as people think that 0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:26.000 they keep playing backups and their offense with Alvaris Hall 0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:28.040 is a joke. 0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:32.199 This is just this is just going to be terrible 0:13:32.240 --> 0:13:35.439 because this is where the era of good feelings get nothing. 0:13:35.520 --> 0:13:38.440 Nothing gold can stay with the Jets. Of course, four 0:13:38.480 --> 0:13:40.560 straight wins here and then in the last one and 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:42.600 this was the game for me where I said, if 0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:45.960 we beat the Broncos, it's you're starting to look at. 0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:47.560 This team and go, okay, they can make the playoffs. 0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:51.880 Now five and two, going, you're going into this. You 0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:53.959 look at the back half of their schedule. This is 0:13:54.000 --> 0:13:56.120 a team that can potentially make that run because the 0:13:56.200 --> 0:13:58.600 teams that they play after the bye week are complete jokes. 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:03.000 And so of course Breese Hall and Elijah Vera Tucker 0:14:03.040 --> 0:14:05.520 have to go down. You can't enjoy anything for a minute. 0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:07.000 And yeah, I do think that this is going to 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:09.800 be a blowout here. I'm probably not gonna end up 0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:12.320 betting it. I'm just gonna take my misery and deal 0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:15.320 with it. But I definitely agree it's a two game 0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:17.760 losing streak heading into the bike. They're gonna lose this one. 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:20.840 They're gonna lose to the Bills, and then you're still 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:23.960 in a good position. But it definitely hurts not having 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:26.680 Breeze Hall and James Robinson is not an adequate replacement 0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:27.120 for him. 0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:29.040 We do need a You could, I. 0:14:29.040 --> 0:14:31.560 Will say you could. Yeah, you need a quarterback back. Yeah, 0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:34.040 you could win this game. It's not out of the 0:14:34.280 --> 0:14:37.680 it's a division game. The totals forty Yeah, I actually 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:39.400 like the under too, and you can have a couple 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:41.680 breaks goarway. So I like the Patriots offense is a 0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:44.920 juggernaut and you're gonna get mac Jones still shaking off 0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:47.360 some rusts. You barely got any work last week. And 0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:49.520 if you do win this game, like I like the Patriots, 0:14:49.520 --> 0:14:53.960 but out man the Bills next week will be an absolute. 0:14:54.160 --> 0:14:57.080 There is zero percent chance. First of all, but again, 0:14:57.080 --> 0:14:58.800 Wilson will be under pressure the whole game. There is 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:02.160 zero percent chance that the Jets offense can keep up 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:02.960 with the Bills. 0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:07.000 Yeah, that is if they win again that game. I'm 0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:07.720 still chewing up. 0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:09.880 I looked at these three gate pre bye week games 0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:11.320 and I just said, if we could just grab one, 0:15:11.600 --> 0:15:14.160 and we grabbed one, So I'm happy. But the sad 0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:15.800 thing is that we did it at the price of 0:15:15.840 --> 0:15:19.840 losing our only two good players on offense. I just 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:22.200 hope that this team still recognizes that they're not getting 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:23.720 the job done with Zack Wilson and they need to 0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:26.080 move on to another quarterback after the season, because that 0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:28.120 was my whole goal for this season with the Jets 0:15:28.160 --> 0:15:31.320 was just suck enough that you move on from Zach 0:15:31.360 --> 0:15:33.520 Wilson and you can take all of these talented pieces 0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:35.280 and get him a real quarterback. I was never a 0:15:35.280 --> 0:15:38.160 believer in this guy, and I'm still not at this point. 0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:41.440 But we've spent more than enough time talking about the 0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:43.320 Jets here because well, wait, now you're. 0:15:43.160 --> 0:15:44.560 Going to go eight to nine though, and not get 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:47.240 a good draft pick and he stuck. Maybe you get 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:48.160 a veteran quarterback. 0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:49.600 Well that's the thing. 0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:51.960 I don't really I'm not invested at the quarterbacks at 0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:53.600 the top of this draft class anyway. You've got a 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:55.840 bam a quarterback in the Ohio State quarterback as the 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:58.080 two best ones right now. I don't want any part 0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:00.560 of either of those programs giving me a quarterback for 0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:04.880 the next twenty years. So I'm okay with a mid 0:16:04.960 --> 0:16:06.920 round pick and trying to take a fly or something, 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:08.480 because it's not like when we had a number two 0:16:08.520 --> 0:16:10.600 overall pick we get anything good with it. We took 0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:14.400 Zach Wilson. So we'll see what happens. I don't really 0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:17.000 trust Stroud and Young. But that's a conversation for a 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:19.840 different podcast here, because we got something really even weirder 0:16:20.480 --> 0:16:23.240 and possibly hasn't happened in more than the twenty one 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:24.880 years since the Jets have had the better record. 0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:27.080 Going into the game against the Patriots. 0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:31.440 The Packers are eleven point dogs in their game this week. Yes, 0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:34.800 it's against the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo. But when is 0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:39.560 the last time we have seen them laying getting eleven points? 0:16:40.320 --> 0:16:43.000 I almost feel like I have to take that number, 0:16:43.040 --> 0:16:45.640 even though this team has done nothing to show me 0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:47.880 that there are any good over the past several weeks. 0:16:47.920 --> 0:16:49.320 Matt, what are you think it in this one? 0:16:49.400 --> 0:16:52.000 Well, let's kick it to Stucky. This is really his 0:16:52.080 --> 0:16:52.560 game here. 0:16:53.520 --> 0:16:56.680 Yeah, I like the backagtar I took plus eleven and 0:16:56.680 --> 0:16:59.640 a half. It's never happened with Rogers. He's never been 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:03.680 more than a touchdown underdog in the regular season. Oddly enough, 0:17:03.680 --> 0:17:08.120 he's it's happened three times, and all on this same weekend. 0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:12.960 Last year he won at undefeated Arizona with no receivers. 0:17:13.200 --> 0:17:15.920 He won. He lost by on a last second field 0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:19.520 goal at undefeated Rams in twenty eighteen, who went under 0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:21.240 the Super Bowl and the Packers stunk that year, and 0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:24.320 then in twenty ten they beat the undefeated Jets. I 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:26.639 think nine to nothing. I don't know what happened in 0:17:26.680 --> 0:17:28.080 that game. I got to go back and look. 0:17:29.000 --> 0:17:29.320 I do. 0:17:29.440 --> 0:17:32.760 I actually remember watching that game because it is just 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:36.399 it was a class the Sanchez. It was a classic 0:17:36.440 --> 0:17:38.840 Sanchez game. The offense couldn't do anything, even though the 0:17:38.920 --> 0:17:42.600 defense stifled Matt Aaron Rodgers in one of the best 0:17:42.640 --> 0:17:43.480 seasons he ever had. 0:17:44.680 --> 0:17:48.000 Yeah, but I look, they're going to have the receiving core. 0:17:48.080 --> 0:17:50.760 They just have no explosiveness. This Packers team. Everyone has 0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:55.240 documented the struggles, but you know, they've also been really unlucky. 0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:57.800 I mean, their special teams are terrible, but if you 0:17:57.840 --> 0:18:00.960 look their sixth and success rate, they can move the 0:18:01.000 --> 0:18:04.600 ball a little bit. They're actually I saw someone tweet 0:18:04.640 --> 0:18:07.440 this out today. They're number two in EPA per play 0:18:07.440 --> 0:18:09.920 on offense outside of the forties, Like in the middle 0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:11.560 of the field, they can't do anything. They're also dead 0:18:11.640 --> 0:18:14.520