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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 2: It is time for some Week eight action here.

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Speaker 1: We are at the halfway point of the quasi halfway

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Speaker 1: point of the season. Here and of course, as always,

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Speaker 1: joining me here to break down the weekend slate. We

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Speaker 1: have none other than the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman, and

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Speaker 1: joining us today none other from the Action Network than

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Speaker 1: Stucky himself. How are you doing today? Thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for joining us here, Jill.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's we're in the heart of football seasons. You

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Speaker 3: follow college football, I guess I'll do it. I'll shameless

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Speaker 3: plug two for pig Bets on Campus podcast, getting ready

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Speaker 3: to do that later today. But if you follow college

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Speaker 3: football and the NFL, we have at least one football

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Speaker 3: game in each of the next twenty seven days. That's

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Speaker 3: a beautiful time of the year.

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Speaker 1: And then that's going to dovetail right into the World Cup,

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Speaker 1: so you get even more other football action going on there.

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Speaker 1: This is the best sports time we have everything going

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Speaker 1: on here. Baseball is almost over, we got the NBA

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Speaker 1: and somebody should probably tell the Lakers that NHL is

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Speaker 1: kicked as to drop the puck on their season. This

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Speaker 1: is full sports season here. It doesn't get any better

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Speaker 1: than this, ladies and gentlemen, And so today we're gonna

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Speaker 1: be talking about some of these NFL games here, Matt.

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Speaker 1: The first one you have up on your list might

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Speaker 1: be one of my biggest no touch games of the

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Speaker 1: year because I have absolutely zero ankling here. You've been

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Speaker 1: low on the Raiders this all season. Their big win

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Speaker 1: against the Texans doesn't do it for you. Here you

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Speaker 1: are taking the Saints as one and a half point

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Speaker 1: dogs at home this week against the Raiders.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, still very much like the Saints in the spot.

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Speaker 4: You know, that offense with Andy Dalton at quarterback for

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Speaker 4: some reason, maybe it's just because he's avoiding some of

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Speaker 4: the massive turnovers you know we've seen Jameis Winston, but

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Speaker 4: that offense has been pretty good, averaging thirty one points

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Speaker 4: per game with Dalton, and Dalton for his career has

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Speaker 4: been pretty good as an underdog forty one thirty one

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Speaker 4: and two against the spread, going against Derek Carr, who's

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Speaker 4: been fifteen to twenty five and one against the spread

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Speaker 4: as a favorite. So you know, trans pointing in opposite

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Speaker 4: directions there, But just in terms of on field matchup,

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Speaker 4: the Saints rush offense versus the Raiders rush defense. I

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Speaker 4: think that for me is going to be the big

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Speaker 4: difference here. The Saints have one of the league's best

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Speaker 4: running offenses and the Raiders are mediocre against the run,

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Speaker 4: you know, often allowing opponents to stay on schedule and

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Speaker 4: sustained drives on the ground. They're number seventeen in rush

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Speaker 4: success rate, number twenty in rush DVOA, and you know,

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Speaker 4: for the Saints offense, they're top three in both of

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Speaker 4: those categories. You know, the Raiders are exploitable via the

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Speaker 4: air as well, bottom six and both drop back EPA

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Speaker 4: and drop back success rate. But you know, with the

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Speaker 4: pass catching injuries the Saints have, I think they're likely

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Speaker 4: to rely more on the running game, and with the

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Speaker 4: edge that they have in that area, I think they're

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Speaker 4: going to keep the contest close. And the Thursday look

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Speaker 4: Ahead market the Saints were minus one and a half

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Speaker 4: and I still think that they should be favored here.

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Speaker 4: I have this at Saints minus one.

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Speaker 1: Two.

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Speaker 2: Things.

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Speaker 1: Number one, the rush bit completely on with especially now

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Speaker 1: that the Raiders are also losing Jonathan Hankin as they

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Speaker 1: traded him to the Dallas Cowboys. Here, this rush defense

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Speaker 1: is very exploitable here, and I fully expect to see

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Speaker 1: a lot of Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara.

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Speaker 2: Andy Dalton's been avoiding the major turnovers though. Didn't you

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Speaker 2: have two picks sixes last week?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: But one of those wasn't his fault, you know, Like

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Speaker 4: for the most part, he hasn't been Jameis Winston, which

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Speaker 4: is like the threshold for whether you get to start

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Speaker 4: over Jameis Winston.

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Speaker 1: But all I'm saying is I'm a little worried if

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Speaker 1: we do see another turnover too. I want to know

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Speaker 1: how long the leash is with him, because apparently coach

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Speaker 1: Dennis Allen was saying that he's going to start, but

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Speaker 1: Jamis is healthy, and we had heard for weeks with

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Speaker 1: this Saints team that Jamis is going to start when

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Speaker 1: he's back and healthy. At how cool If Andy Dalton

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Speaker 1: gets off to a bad start, do you think they

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Speaker 1: put Jamis in this game?

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Speaker 4: Maybe, but I think it would have to be a

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Speaker 4: really bad start. They did say that it was performance

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Speaker 4: at this point and not health as to why Dalton

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Speaker 4: is starting, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Stucky, what are you thinking on this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? It's this is a It's a tough handicap, mainly

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Speaker 3: because of all the injuries that New Orleans of stuffered

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Speaker 3: a key positions right secondary, wide receiver. I show i'd

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Speaker 3: make this a true coin flip. So if I had

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Speaker 3: a bet, and I bet the Saints, who have actually

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Speaker 3: been pretty good in terms of efficiency on both sides

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Speaker 3: of the ball, they've been the unluckiest team in turnovers,

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Speaker 3: which tend to regress over the course of the season,

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Speaker 3: especially if you know you don't have Winston in there.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Dalton's two pick sixes last week basically cost

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Speaker 3: some the game. There's been a couple other games like that.

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Speaker 3: We're just absolute game swinging penalties. They've not only just

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Speaker 3: numerically have they had the worst turnover luck in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: It's like when they come you have to like if

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Speaker 3: you dig in the penalty in turnovers, like they matter

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Speaker 3: a lot more than you know, a Hail Mary at

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Speaker 3: the end of the first half compared to like you're

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Speaker 3: driving and there's a pick six. So but one thing

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Speaker 3: that gives me pause here is the Saints defensive line.

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Speaker 3: Theyre just haven't been They're not getting any pressure number one,

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Speaker 3: and if you look, Josh Jacobs looks rejuvenated. The Raiders'

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Speaker 3: offensive line is actually I think they're number one in

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Speaker 3: adjusted lineyards and they've been really good and run blocking.

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Speaker 3: The Saints are number two. But then if you look

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Speaker 3: at the other side of the ball, the Raiders defensive

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Speaker 3: line has actually been better against Rent. I don't know

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Speaker 3: what's going on with the Saints defensive line. Maybe some

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Speaker 3: guys are over the hill dealing with injuries. I'm not sure,

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Speaker 3: but generally speaking, the Saints defense will shut down the run,

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Speaker 3: so I would like this matchup from that perspective, but

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Speaker 3: it just hasn't really played out that way this year.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I make this a true coin flip. Saints

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Speaker 3: at hun they probably have some aggression coming their way.

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Speaker 3: They've been really good from an efficiency standpoint. There's just

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Speaker 3: a lot of injury uncertainty with the Saints, but yeah,

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Speaker 3: I think it's Saints are passed.

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Speaker 1: Also important to note here, Derek Carr, limited in practice

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Speaker 1: on Wednesday, was dealing with a back injury stemming from

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Speaker 1: last week's game. He's still gonna play, but the last

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Speaker 1: thing you want with that offensive line as a quarterback

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Speaker 1: like Derek Carr, who's even more immobile for this one.

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Speaker 1: That could be a big problem here for him. The

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Speaker 1: next game up on the board, the Lions and the Dolphins. Here,

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Speaker 1: the Lions, they're gonna be getting four and a half

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Speaker 1: points in this one, three and a half points in

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Speaker 1: this one right now at home. But Stucky, you had

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Speaker 1: them at four and a half. Do you still like

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Speaker 1: them at three and a half?

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Speaker 3: I wish I had him fortnite you said four and

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Speaker 3: a half. I almost ran to I was about to

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Speaker 3: pull up my phone. I was like, well, I'm about

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Speaker 3: to add to the Lions. Yeah, I like the Lions here.

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Speaker 3: I mean, if you look at what they've done when

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Speaker 3: their off, it's been full. Everyone's jumped off this bandwagon.

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Speaker 3: Now they're all on it early in the year. But

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Speaker 3: if you look at what they've done all year, I mean,

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Speaker 3: they've put up early in their thirty five, thirty six,

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Speaker 3: forty eight, and it's a team that was regularly scoring

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Speaker 3: over thirty points at home indoors where Jared Goff isn't

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Speaker 3: a pumpkin. And then they have one bad game at

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Speaker 3: New England, you know, but they were missing some key

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Speaker 3: guys and golf outdoors is a great spot for the

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Speaker 3: Patriots even and then last week they go to Dallas.

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Speaker 3: The yardage about equal was five turn to one. They

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Speaker 3: were at the one to take the lead. I think

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Speaker 3: early the fourth quarter fumbled at the one yard line.

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Speaker 3: I think their defense showed out well. I actually have

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Speaker 3: some promise for their defense moving forward. It's been one

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Speaker 3: of the worst in the league. But they inserted some

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Speaker 3: young guys into the lineup in the by you know,

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Speaker 3: playing Josh Pascal more up front, Kirby Joseph I think

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Speaker 3: he is playing well at safety. Then obviously everyone knows

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Speaker 3: about Hutchinson, who had his best day as a pro

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Speaker 3: last week, so did Jeff Akudah for what it's worth

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Speaker 3: a corner knock and Rodrigez I think is a future

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Speaker 3: studded linebackers. So I think their defense is going to improve,

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Speaker 3: and it looked pretty good last week. And you have

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Speaker 3: to remember last week the Lions didn't play with DeAndre Swift,

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Speaker 3: who will play this week, and they lost him on

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Speaker 3: Ross Saint Brown and like the first drive because he

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Speaker 3: was spotted for a concussion which he didn't have. He's

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Speaker 3: massive for that offense and especially this week, so we

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Speaker 3: know the Lions have a good offensive line. They're going

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Speaker 3: up against a Dolphin secondary that is down to fourth

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Speaker 3: and fifth string corners and Xavion Howard and they just

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Speaker 3: lost Brandon Jones at safety. It's like a really important

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Speaker 3: blitz piece for them. So I think the Lions will

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Speaker 3: be able to move the ball here and for as

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Speaker 3: you know, fun is the Miami offens is in four

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Speaker 3: or five four or five to a starts. They haven't

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Speaker 3: surpassed twenty one points. Like it's just not there's something

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Speaker 3: missing there. But I think this, you know, the both

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Speaker 3: teams are going to be able to score here. I'll

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Speaker 3: gladly take the three and a half at home with

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Speaker 3: the Lions. I think defense is trending up, offense is

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Speaker 3: now fully healthy. I think this is a good spot

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Speaker 3: to buy Detroit.

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Speaker 1: Fifty one and a half points is the total matt

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Speaker 1: any thoughts on that versus one of the sides here.

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Speaker 1: I know it's high, but it's it's the Lions and

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Speaker 1: that defense going up against anyone is usually a recipe

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Speaker 1: for an over.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I don't I have it at fifty

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Speaker 4: one point six, so you know, I'm basically right there,

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Speaker 4: but I you know, I am. I'm hopeful that Stucky

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Speaker 4: is right because in the look ahead market. I actually

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Speaker 4: did get on the Lions at plus three, and then,

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Speaker 4: of course, like my luck, it moved to three and

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Speaker 4: a half instead of down. But I was, you know,

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Speaker 4: at that point bullish enough on the Lions to think

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Speaker 4: that this line might move down. And I'm westucky. I

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Speaker 4: thought they played actually pretty well against Dallas and it

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Speaker 4: was only at the end of the game that things

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Speaker 4: really unraveled for them. So if I had to bet

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Speaker 4: this now, I would probably be on the Lions and

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Speaker 4: not the Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: I'm inclined to agree with you, especially for getting that

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Speaker 1: three and a half. I like that hook with the

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Speaker 1: Lions here at home. But Matt, how are you feeling

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Speaker 1: about this next game up here? It's the big one?

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Speaker 1: This is the super Bowl of the season, the matchup

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Speaker 1: to end all matchups.

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Speaker 5: For the first time in twenty one years, the New

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Speaker 5: York Jets head into their battle with the New England

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Speaker 5: Patriots with a better record. Where are you going in

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Speaker 5: this one? The Patriots are.

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Speaker 1: Now laying two and a half points around town. Oh,

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Speaker 1: I wanted to get to three so bad. I know

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Speaker 1: what's going to happen in this game. I've been predicting

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Speaker 1: the downfall and I do argue that it happened last

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Speaker 1: week losing Bresee Hall, but and Elijah Vera Tucker, that's

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Speaker 1: just two brutal blows for this Jets offense. I think

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Speaker 1: they'll be okay in the future when and when Fant returns.

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Speaker 1: This offensive line will get back to being somewhat okay.

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Speaker 1: But man, these injuries has been brutal. Where are you

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Speaker 1: going in this one? Are you going to lay the

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Speaker 1: points with the Patriots on the road?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Stuckey, If you can't tell, Tom is a diehard

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Speaker 4: Jets fan, so he's really filling it right now. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: I'm on the Patriots. I think their pass defense going

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Speaker 4: against the pass offense or lack of pass offense for

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Speaker 4: the Jets, is the real difference in this game. And

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Speaker 4: you know, the Jets offense is ranked top five and

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Speaker 4: just one efficiency metric that's rush EPA per play, And

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Speaker 4: in quarterback Zach Wilson's four starts, the Jets were actually

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Speaker 4: number one in rush EPA per play, like giving him

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Speaker 4: outstanding support in the ground game. But you know, for

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Speaker 4: the year, the Jets are just number twenty two in

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Speaker 4: rush success rate. Since Week four, they've improved, but still

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Speaker 4: only number thirteen. And you know what that means is

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Speaker 4: on a down to down basis, they're not really consistent.

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Speaker 4: You know, They've just relying on the big play, especially

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Speaker 4: from Briest Hall. And you know, now with him out,

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Speaker 4: you mentioned Elijah Berry Tucker out, he's really the team's

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Speaker 4: best run blocker. I think the Jets are going to

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Speaker 4: struggle on the ground, which means they need Wilson to

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Speaker 4: do more through the air, and like that's that's a

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Speaker 4: big ask, right, Like that feels like a problem given

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Speaker 4: that the Patriots defense is top six and every key

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Speaker 4: pass efficiency metric and the Jets pass offense is no

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Speaker 4: better than average. So if they can't run the ball,

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Speaker 4: and if they can't pass the ball against the Patriots defense,

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Speaker 4: like how are they going to score enough points to cover? So, yeah,

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Speaker 4: I'm on the Patriots in this spot.

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Speaker 2: Stucky, what are you feeling in this game?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's it's test to be Patriots here

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Speaker 3: for what it's worth. Belichick thirty nine to seven and

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Speaker 3: one against the spread after a loss. That's eighty four percent,

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Speaker 3: including twenty six three and one against the spread on

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Speaker 3: the road after a loss, covering by eleven points per game,

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Speaker 3: that's ninety percent two and out this year to He's

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Speaker 3: done it with Castle, He's done it with multiple quarterbacks. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: the Jets are whatever. The right with their fraudulent record

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Speaker 3: is they've beaten they've won four and or I think

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Speaker 3: against nothing backup quarterbacks. Last week, by the way, I

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Speaker 3: had a ten great of that game is a ten

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Speaker 3: point loss for the Jets. Great at that. The seventeen

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Speaker 3: point win against the Packers is a four point loss

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Speaker 3: they had. They scored on two trick plays on offense,

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Speaker 3: a punt block for a touchdown, block the field goal.

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Speaker 3: This off the last two games that they won on

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Speaker 3: the road, and they Zack Wilson had a twenty nine

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Speaker 3: percent success rate and a thirty one percent success rate

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Speaker 3: complete poverty. He's under He's the worst. I think he's

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Speaker 3: the worst quarterback in the NFL by far, this guy.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's it's amazing that they're winning games with him,

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Speaker 3: and they're winning games despite him facing back up quarterbacks

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Speaker 3: getting some fortunate breaks under and the Patriots get a

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Speaker 3: lot of pressure too. Under pressure. This year, Zach Wilson

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Speaker 3: is five of thirty one for forty yards five of

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Speaker 3: thirty one for forty yards. He is completely lost back there,

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Speaker 3: and yeah, now you don't have Breis Hall to you know,

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Speaker 3: break a seventy yard run here or there. I think

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Speaker 3: the Jets are in for a long day. If you

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Speaker 3: look at EPA plus completion percentage of expectation. Out of

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Speaker 3: thirty six qualified quarterbacks, Jack Wilson's thirty fifth. The only

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Speaker 3: one that's been worse this year is Baker Mayfield. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: this is this is Patriots all the way in a

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Speaker 3: bounce back spot. And yeah, the Jets are. Their medicine

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Speaker 3: is coming and they're coming back down to Earth soon.

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Speaker 3: I like their future. They've got some good young pieces,

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Speaker 3: but their defense isn't as good as people think that

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Speaker 3: they keep playing backups and their offense with Alvaris Hall

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Speaker 3: is a joke.

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Speaker 1: This is just this is just going to be terrible

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Speaker 1: because this is where the era of good feelings get nothing.

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Speaker 1: Nothing gold can stay with the Jets. Of course, four

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Speaker 1: straight wins here and then in the last one and

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Speaker 1: this was the game for me where I said, if

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Speaker 1: we beat the Broncos, it's you're starting to look at.

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Speaker 2: This team and go, okay, they can make the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: Now five and two, going, you're going into this. You

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Speaker 1: look at the back half of their schedule. This is

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Speaker 1: a team that can potentially make that run because the

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Speaker 1: teams that they play after the bye week are complete jokes.

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Speaker 1: And so of course Breese Hall and Elijah Vera Tucker

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Speaker 1: have to go down. You can't enjoy anything for a minute.

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Speaker 1: And yeah, I do think that this is going to

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Speaker 1: be a blowout here. I'm probably not gonna end up

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Speaker 1: betting it. I'm just gonna take my misery and deal

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Speaker 1: with it. But I definitely agree it's a two game

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Speaker 1: losing streak heading into the bike. They're gonna lose this one.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna lose to the Bills, and then you're still

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Speaker 1: in a good position. But it definitely hurts not having

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Speaker 1: Breeze Hall and James Robinson is not an adequate replacement

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Speaker 1: for him.

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Speaker 2: We do need a You could, I.

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Speaker 3: Will say you could. Yeah, you need a quarterback back. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: you could win this game. It's not out of the

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Speaker 3: it's a division game. The totals forty Yeah, I actually

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Speaker 3: like the under too, and you can have a couple

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Speaker 3: breaks goarway. So I like the Patriots offense is a

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Speaker 3: juggernaut and you're gonna get mac Jones still shaking off

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Speaker 3: some rusts. You barely got any work last week. And

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Speaker 3: if you do win this game, like I like the Patriots,

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Speaker 3: but out man the Bills next week will be an absolute.

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Speaker 3: There is zero percent chance. First of all, but again,

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Speaker 3: Wilson will be under pressure the whole game. There is

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Speaker 3: zero percent chance that the Jets offense can keep up

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Speaker 3: with the Bills.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that is if they win again that game. I'm

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Speaker 2: still chewing up.

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Speaker 1: I looked at these three gate pre bye week games

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Speaker 1: and I just said, if we could just grab one,

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Speaker 1: and we grabbed one, So I'm happy. But the sad

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Speaker 1: thing is that we did it at the price of

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Speaker 1: losing our only two good players on offense. I just

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Speaker 1: hope that this team still recognizes that they're not getting

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Speaker 1: the job done with Zack Wilson and they need to

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Speaker 1: move on to another quarterback after the season, because that

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Speaker 1: was my whole goal for this season with the Jets

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Speaker 1: was just suck enough that you move on from Zach

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Speaker 1: Wilson and you can take all of these talented pieces

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Speaker 1: and get him a real quarterback. I was never a

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Speaker 1: believer in this guy, and I'm still not at this point.

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Speaker 1: But we've spent more than enough time talking about the

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Speaker 1: Jets here because well, wait, now you're.

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Speaker 3: Going to go eight to nine though, and not get

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Speaker 3: a good draft pick and he stuck. Maybe you get

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Speaker 3: a veteran quarterback.

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Speaker 2: Well that's the thing.

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Speaker 1: I don't really I'm not invested at the quarterbacks at

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Speaker 1: the top of this draft class anyway. You've got a

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Speaker 1: bam a quarterback in the Ohio State quarterback as the

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Speaker 1: two best ones right now. I don't want any part

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Speaker 1: of either of those programs giving me a quarterback for

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Speaker 1: the next twenty years. So I'm okay with a mid

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Speaker 1: round pick and trying to take a fly or something,

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Speaker 1: because it's not like when we had a number two

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Speaker 1: overall pick we get anything good with it. We took

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Speaker 1: Zach Wilson. So we'll see what happens. I don't really

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Speaker 1: trust Stroud and Young. But that's a conversation for a

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Speaker 1: different podcast here, because we got something really even weirder

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Speaker 1: and possibly hasn't happened in more than the twenty one

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Speaker 1: years since the Jets have had the better record.

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Speaker 2: Going into the game against the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: The Packers are eleven point dogs in their game this week. Yes,

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Speaker 1: it's against the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo. But when is

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Speaker 1: the last time we have seen them laying getting eleven points?

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Speaker 1: I almost feel like I have to take that number,

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Speaker 1: even though this team has done nothing to show me

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Speaker 1: that there are any good over the past several weeks.

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Speaker 2: Matt, what are you think it in this one?

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Speaker 4: Well, let's kick it to Stucky. This is really his

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Speaker 4: game here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the backagtar I took plus eleven and

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Speaker 3: a half. It's never happened with Rogers. He's never been

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Speaker 3: more than a touchdown underdog in the regular season. Oddly enough,

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Speaker 3: he's it's happened three times, and all on this same weekend.

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Speaker 3: Last year he won at undefeated Arizona with no receivers.

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Speaker 3: He won. He lost by on a last second field

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Speaker 3: goal at undefeated Rams in twenty eighteen, who went under

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Speaker 3: the Super Bowl and the Packers stunk that year, and

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Speaker 3: then in twenty ten they beat the undefeated Jets. I

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Speaker 3: think nine to nothing. I don't know what happened in

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Speaker 3: that game. I got to go back and look.

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Speaker 2: I do.

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Speaker 1: I actually remember watching that game because it is just

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Speaker 1: it was a class the Sanchez. It was a classic

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Speaker 1: Sanchez game. The offense couldn't do anything, even though the

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Speaker 1: defense stifled Matt Aaron Rodgers in one of the best

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Speaker 1: seasons he ever had.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, but I look, they're going to have the receiving core.

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Speaker 3: They just have no explosiveness. This Packers team. Everyone has

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Speaker 3: documented the struggles, but you know, they've also been really unlucky.

395
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Speaker 3: I mean, their special teams are terrible, but if you

396
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Speaker 3: look their sixth and success rate, they can move the

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Speaker 3: ball a little bit. They're actually I saw someone tweet

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Speaker 3: this out today. They're number two in EPA per play

399
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Speaker 3: on offense outside of the forties, Like in the middle

400
00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:11,560
Speaker 3: of the field, they can't do anything. They're also dead

401
00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,520
Speaker 3: last and fourth down conversion rate thirty second EPA per

402
00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:18,359
Speaker 3: play on late downs, which tend to have more variants.

403
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Speaker 3: Their defense is still a really good pass defense, and

404
00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:25,280
Speaker 3: their run defense is awful, and they've played these teams

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Speaker 3: that have just run all over them. But this matchup

406
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Speaker 3: might not be the worst thing for them. Like Bills

407
00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:32,520
Speaker 3: don't give up explosive plays, so and the Packers don't

408
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Speaker 3: have any exposiveness in their offense. They're gonna have to

409
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Speaker 3: run the ball, They're gonna have to dike it, dunk

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Speaker 3: they're gonna get rid of the quick. We'll see how

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Speaker 3: healthy their offensive line is. That's anohing they dealt with

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Speaker 3: offensive line injuries. And on the other side of the ball,

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Speaker 3: the Bills throw the ball. That's what they do. They

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Speaker 3: can't run it, by the way, even if they come

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Speaker 3: out here and say let's run it more. I think

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Speaker 3: they're bottom three and heap gave for play when running

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Speaker 3: the ball, So they're gonna throw it a lot. And

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Speaker 3: that's what the Packers look for. Shawn Gary practice today,

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Speaker 3: which is big. The Packers can get some pressure. They

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Speaker 3: have a good secondary, so I kind of like the

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Speaker 3: match up here with their you know, kind of dink

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Speaker 3: and dunk efficient offense. You hope that they get some

423
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Speaker 3: better luck on late downs. And on the other side,

424
00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:13,400
Speaker 3: like their pass defense is good. That's what you want

425
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Speaker 3: against the Bills. Maybe I know Bills are off of

426
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Speaker 3: a buy here, but they just beat the Chiefs. It's

427
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Speaker 3: like the Packers struggle. Maybe they come out a little flat,

428
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Speaker 3: And I think this situation just sets up well for

429
00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:24,919
Speaker 3: the Packers and like everyone's written them off. They've had

430
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Speaker 3: all this pressure on them, their offense, and like you

431
00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:31,159
Speaker 3: can go in here and play loose and free. No

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Speaker 3: one's giving you a chance. And most importantly, I just

433
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Speaker 3: think that this is the bottom of the market on

434
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Speaker 3: the Packers, which is really what you want to do

435
00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:42,200
Speaker 3: and what I, or at least what I first try

436
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:44,720
Speaker 3: to do when betting the NFL, you know, buying low

437
00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:46,879
Speaker 3: and selling high. It's similar to the stock mark. And

438
00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:49,920
Speaker 3: I think that this is the bottom of the Packers

439
00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:54,040
Speaker 3: stock And I know it's so narrative based to say, oh,

440
00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:56,640
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers, hall of fame quarterback, I'll glad they take

441
00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:58,800
Speaker 3: eleven and a half with him, and I'll tell you

442
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:03,640
Speaker 3: why that's important. And like if I had to think

443
00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:06,320
Speaker 3: that this is a blowout down seventeen late, especially in

444
00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:08,760
Speaker 3: today's EEV with the scoring down, if they're down seventeen

445
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,360
Speaker 3: late in the game, that's a blowout. Then you got

446
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:14,359
Speaker 3: a Hall of Fame quarterback with three minutes ago, playing

447
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:16,960
Speaker 3: against a prevent defense. You need them to go down

448
00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:20,240
Speaker 3: to get a touchdown. Could be in worse spots.

449
00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:24,399
Speaker 1: So back door is very open, and the Bills can

450
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,200
Speaker 1: let you back in, especially given their injuries in the secondary.

451
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, of course, So yeah, I think that this is

452
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:35,760
Speaker 3: the this is the time to buy the Packers and

453
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,560
Speaker 3: historic Boks. Speaking of buying low, if you just follow

454
00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:41,879
Speaker 3: this blindly the past forty years, teams off three straight

455
00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:44,879
Speaker 3: losses and three straight non covers, you just bet them

456
00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:48,760
Speaker 3: the next week, especially as an underdog you're at sixty percent. Historically,

457
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:51,640
Speaker 3: everyone is just talking about how bad the Packers are,

458
00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:55,760
Speaker 3: how great the Bills are. It's goodbye, low Cellah spot

459
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:58,119
Speaker 3: puld your nose, Matt.

460
00:20:58,160 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 1: Any thoughts on this game or do you want to

461
00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:01,720
Speaker 1: go on to your next game which is a little

462
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:02,200
Speaker 1: bit different.

463
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:07,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I you know, I'm on the look aheadline here.

464
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:11,919
Speaker 4: I got it on you know, last Thursday, Buffalo minus

465
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:13,600
Speaker 4: eight and a half, and I saw that I was like,

466
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 4: no way that this doesn't get to ten by the

467
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 4: time this line really opens on Sunday nights. So I

468
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:22,439
Speaker 4: bet that if I'm looking at this number now, I

469
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:24,919
Speaker 4: take all the Stucky's points and I'll just say, like,

470
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:28,040
Speaker 4: I think he's probably right. There's a difference between like

471
00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 4: being right, like in terms of how teams match up

472
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 4: with each other, and then like you know, going by

473
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,399
Speaker 4: the number based on your power ratings. I still have

474
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 4: this like power rated to where Buffalo should be favored

475
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 4: by eleven point seventy five points, So in theory, there's

476
00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 4: still like my line would point towards the Bills, but

477
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:50,159
Speaker 4: you know, past ten, you know, the difference between like

478
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 4: ten and a half eleven and then getting up to

479
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:53,879
Speaker 4: eleven point seven five, They're like, there's not much of

480
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:57,159
Speaker 4: a difference there, And I don't I don't think I

481
00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 4: really want to be betting this game on the Bill

482
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:05,199
Speaker 4: past ten. I mean I take Stucky's point of like, yeah, like,

483
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,400
Speaker 4: am I going to regret like a week from now

484
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:09,959
Speaker 4: not having bet on Aaron Rodgers at like what is

485
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,640
Speaker 4: definitely like the low point in the market for him?

486
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 4: Like yeah, I will probably be like, man, I should

487
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 4: have just been on, I should have tried to middle

488
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 4: or I should have just waited and be like, no,

489
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,360
Speaker 4: I'm gonna bet the Packers once this gets past ten.

490
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:25,399
Speaker 4: So I take Stucky's point there, but at this point

491
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 4: in the market, I'm probably staying away.

492
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:29,680
Speaker 3: On a scale of one to ten, how shock would

493
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 3: you be at if the Packers went out right three?

494
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would say maybe four, five.

495
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 2: I mean, nothing shocks anymore.

496
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 4: Right, like big underdog winning this year, Like, yeah, that's

497
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 4: that's very conceivable, especially with you know, Aaron Rodgers and

498
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 4: the defense that they have the one thing that does

499
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,439
Speaker 4: give me pause is that they just don't have the

500
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:54,639
Speaker 4: talent on offense and their their offensive line is in

501
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,399
Speaker 4: disarray right now with all the moving pieces they have

502
00:22:57,520 --> 00:22:59,959
Speaker 4: back and forth, and you know Bactiari, who knows if

503
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,680
Speaker 4: he actually ends up playing, So the offensive line issues,

504
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:05,920
Speaker 4: that's really what what gives me pause.

505
00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:08,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, backyard is an important piece. If you want to

506
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,400
Speaker 3: wait to bet this, I'm just gonna stay over ten.

507
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 2: Uh.

508
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 3: They need they need Batyar at left tackle. They and

509
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:17,639
Speaker 3: then they're moving Jenkins to left guard and I think

510
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:19,920
Speaker 3: that will help, and especially against the Bills. Like Baktiari,

511
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 3: it's been good, but he's been in there similar like

512
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,400
Speaker 3: Rodney Stanley, Like there's just no drop off when he plays.

513
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 3: He's elite and you're gonna be going up against von

514
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,959
Speaker 3: Miller and a defensive line that can get pressure. And

515
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers has just been under fire all season long.

516
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 3: So yeah, see if if Baciari plays, I like this

517
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 3: even more. He practiced today which is a good sisode

518
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 3: over Sean Garry, so it looks like he's gonna play,

519
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 3: which is another important piece. But Baciaris is literally it

520
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 3: appears from what I've read and heard that he's gonna

521
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 3: be like a game time decision for the next like month. Yeah,

522
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 3: he played two weeks ago and then he's like it

523
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 3: just depends on the day and how was his knee feel.

524
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,639
Speaker 3: So yeah, he he's an important piece for this game

525
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 3: and this matchup.

526
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 2: It's just so hard.

527
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 1: I don't really see how in the NFL, especially this season,

528
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 1: how you can lay ten points in any matchup here

529
00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 1: because it's just so unpredictable and what's been going on.

530
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 1: And so with that, Matt, the Steelers are playing the Eagles,

531
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 1: and the Eagles are laying ten and a half points

532
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 1: in this matchup, Where are you going in this one?

533
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:26,640
Speaker 4: So I will say I bet this when it was ten.

534
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 4: Ten and a half is not quite as appetizing obviously

535
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,359
Speaker 4: because you're off of the key number. But I still

536
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 4: I really like the matchup between these two teams, the

537
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 4: matchup that we have for the Eagles here, and you know,

538
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 4: like we obviously know like the trend of like Mike

539
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 4: Tomlin as an underdog obviously fantastic in that spot forty

540
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 4: eight twenty five and three against the spread for his

541
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:53,639
Speaker 4: career as an underdog. And yeah, I mean you can

542
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 4: see how this could be like a Rav Ross spot

543
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 4: for Mike Tomlin. But this Eagles pass defense going against

544
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 4: the Steelers pass offense, I think that for me is

545
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 4: the matchup and where this game is won. The Steelers,

546
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,120
Speaker 4: I think they have one of the best pass catching

547
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:10,360
Speaker 4: like skill position groups in the league. Obviously a wide

548
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 4: receiver Deontay Johnson and Chase Claypoll George Pickens, all those

549
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 4: three guys are great. Pat Freyremouth is an emerging tight

550
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 4: end who I think could eventually elevate himself into the

551
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 4: top tier. And Najee Harris is a really good pass

552
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,200
Speaker 4: catching back for a guy of his size. But their

553
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:28,120
Speaker 4: passing game has been thwarted by the I don't want

554
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:31,199
Speaker 4: to say like lack of development by rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett,

555
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,640
Speaker 4: but just like the fact that he's a rookie. He's

556
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:35,920
Speaker 4: dead last in the league with a three point nine

557
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:39,400
Speaker 4: adjusted yards per attempt, Like he has not played well

558
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:41,679
Speaker 4: this year. There are some throws where it's just like

559
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 4: he does not have the physical ability to make those

560
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 4: throws when he thinks that he does, so he needs

561
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 4: to adjust his game, So like, how are they going

562
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,640
Speaker 4: to move the ball through the air against the Eagles.

563
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 4: I think they're not going to. The Eagles defense is

564
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 4: top six against the pass and a number of efficient metrics.

565
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,119
Speaker 4: I think they're just too strong at cornerback. You know,

566
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 4: with James Bradbury, he's got the size and the physicality

567
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 4: to match up with Claypool and Pickens on the perimeter.

568
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 4: And then you know Darius Slay he's got the quickness

569
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 4: I think to stick with Johnson. And then in the slot,

570
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 4: Avonte Maddox has steadily developed over the past few years

571
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,719
Speaker 4: and to one of the better, you know, interior pass defenders.

572
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 4: He's got, you know, an elite combination of speed and agility,

573
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 4: which I think helps him navigate the middle of the field.

574
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 4: I just I think the Eagles are too explosive on

575
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 4: offense not to get out to a double digit lead,

576
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 4: and their pass defense is good enough to be able

577
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 4: to keep that lead in the second half. So you know,

578
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:43,439
Speaker 4: at ten and a half, it's it's close. For me,

579
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:45,719
Speaker 4: I would still be on the Eagles at this number.

580
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 4: I obviously liked it much more ten when I bet

581
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 4: it and wrote it up.

582
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 2: Stucky, how are you feeling in this one.

583
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, it looks like you know, I make this kind

584
00:26:57,600 --> 00:26:59,679
Speaker 3: of spot on Yeah, Tom, and as a dog obviously

585
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 3: has been unbelievable. This I just would classify as a

586
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:04,679
Speaker 3: Rara spot in my opinion, which would treat me very

587
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:06,400
Speaker 3: well in the past. But I don't know if I'd

588
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 3: want to back the Steelers here. I will I will

589
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 3: tell you that if Lane Johnson was going to be

590
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 3: out for the end, it looks like he's going to

591
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 3: return out of concussion protocol. But he's really important to

592
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,239
Speaker 3: that offensive line, and you saw when he went out

593
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 3: against the Cowboys. And I just have this weird suspicion that,

594
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 3: you know, the Steelers defense would do a lot of

595
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:28,960
Speaker 3: injuries that like we're gonna it'll be like shocking everyone

596
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 3: that TJ. Watt comes off the I R and just

597
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 3: plays on Sunday and like he I remember he was

598
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 3: in concussion protocol one week. They got a concussion on

599
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 3: like a Tuesday. They played the Rams on like a Tuesday,

600
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 3: and then he was Everyone's like he's out, and then

601
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 3: he just played and he like practiced today. I think, Uh,

602
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 3: my friend that's affiliated with the Steelers was like he

603
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:50,920
Speaker 3: was out there on the side like going full It

604
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,440
Speaker 3: wouldn't shock me. TJ. I played and the Steelers defense

605
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 3: with TJ. Watt on and off the field splits is ridiculous.

606
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:00,879
Speaker 3: And him against that you know what the Eagles like

607
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 3: to do off the edge and him, you know, and

608
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 3: if Lane Johnson was out, t J. Watts like literally

609
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 3: could be worth maybe the most important defensive player in

610
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 3: the league in this particular matchup of Johnson was out.

611
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:14,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, but that's terrifying. That's terrifying. The idea of TJ

612
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 4: walking back. Honestly, I'm when we're done, I'm gonna go

613
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 4: do some research and look this up. If he's practicing,

614
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 4: I'm buying out of my position right now. Like, I

615
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:26,680
Speaker 4: will just say that if TJ. Watt is actually out there,

616
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 4: I want no part of going against this number.

617
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, the I will say that the like because the

618
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 3: common thought was because the Steelers played the Eagles this week,

619
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:38,520
Speaker 3: they'll be making this up. But I think they have

620
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 3: a buy next.

621
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 2: Week real quick. TJ. Watt practice today.

622
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, so what topic they'll buy next week? So everyone's

623
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 3: like he's just gonna come back after the bye. But

624
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 3: they're like two and five, all right, two and five

625
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 3: to just you have to win this game where your

626
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 3: season is pretty much over in the ICC. So I

627
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 3: don't know, but I will say something in support of you.

628
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 3: And you know, I will quote trends if there's a

629
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 3: reason for them. You know, the talmil they makes sense.

630
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 3: He's a very good motivator, fires up a locker room.

631
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 3: Not the greatest like in game manager, but his team

632
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 3: he's like kind of like, get the troops ready, and

633
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 3: sometimes they come out so flat. Of his favorites back

634
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 3: with Roethlisberger, he's awful. He was a big favorite against

635
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 3: losing teams. Here's one that another trend that supports the

636
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 3: Eagles that I believe in. And this is crazy. Since

637
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 3: two thousand and one, undefeated teams in the NFL coming

638
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 3: off of buy that are favored at home are eighteen

639
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 3: and one straight up and seventeen and two against the spread,

640
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 3: covering by I think almost two touchdowns per game. Think

641
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:41,479
Speaker 3: about this. This is undefeated teams in the NFL. Everyone

642
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 3: knows that they're good, right, you would think that they

643
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 3: would be at the top of their market. There's seventeen

644
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 3: to two against the spread. Why how could this be?

645
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 3: And you know, an efficient NFL market, I would you know,

646
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 3: my hypothesis is that if you're undefeated in the NFL

647
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 3: and at home right number one, you're gonna get an

648
00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 3: amazing crowd Hoak Field of Avengine. You're gonna be rested,

649
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 3: and you're a good team. You probably a good coaching staff.

650
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 3: But you're undefeated and you're on a bye. You probably

651
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 3: spent that two weeks like the morale and the dedication

652
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,880
Speaker 3: and everything is just positive and everything's working together. You

653
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 3: probably spent those two weeks every week and second, everyone

654
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 3: on the team studying film and like. So, yeah, that's

655
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 3: a crazy seventeen and two against the spread for teams

656
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 3: that are undefeated, like you would think at home favorites

657
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 3: off of a bye covered by almost two touchdowns per game.

658
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 3: So that supports your Eagles position here. I do agree

659
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 3: with you that if the Eagles build a lead, it's

660
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 3: bad news for the Steelers. You just I don't know

661
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 3: when we're gonna be able to sell the Eagles because

662
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 3: their schedule is so bad. But they are built to

663
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 3: play from a head, and I think that they're going

664
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 3: to be vulnerable when they play a team that actually

665
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 3: gets out in front against them, which hasn't happened. It

666
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 3: might not happen often until they get to the playoffs.

667
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, stuck you, that is a wild trend. Seventeen and

668
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 4: two and so reading here, head coach Mike Tomlin has

669
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 4: already said it's highly unlike we see Watt this week.

670
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's assumed he's not gonna play. Okay, but

671
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 3: I'm just saying, like everyone, he's highly highly doubtful. But

672
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 3: he's been he was highly highly doubtful with a concussion

673
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 3: like two days after protocol. I'm just saying it would

674
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 3: be shocking if he played, but I personally wouldn't be shocked.

675
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 1: Okay, now, how about this game for you here, stuck

676
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 1: he this. I really wish this line was three because

677
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 1: then it gets very easy for me to take the

678
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings. But it's three and a half and at

679
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 1: some places might go to four here versus the Cardinals

680
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 1: in Minnesota.

681
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 2: Are you taking Kyler Murray and the Cards hero.

682
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 1: Or are you taking the Minnesota Vikings, who somehow are

683
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 1: are Are they.

684
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 2: Still five and one? Did they have a bye week

685
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 2: last week?

686
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 4: Yeah?

687
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 3: Five, and they're five and one. They're a paper tiger.

688
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 3: I mean they're five and one coming off of bye,

689
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 3: and by the way, doesn't mean as much here Cardinals

690
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 3: coming off the mini bye. They played on Thursday night.

691
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 3: Forever reason, this Cardinals team just likes going on the road.

692
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 3: I don't know, if they're just distracted at home Cliff

693
00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 3: is with his models and Kyler's playing call of duty.

694
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 3: I don't know. But on the road he's fifteen three

695
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 3: and two against the spread as an underdog, He's won

696
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 3: eight straight outright, They're just how they perform on the

697
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 3: road versus at home is crazy. This is when you

698
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 3: want to back Cliff Kingsbury, who I'm not a fan

699
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 3: of or not, on the second half of the season

700
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 3: with Hopkins in the lineup on the road as an underdog,

701
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:22,960
Speaker 3: the numbers with him without Hopkins are stunning for Kyler Murray.

702
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 3: I mean, even if you remove Kyler Murray, the Cardinals

703
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 3: in general overall with him without Hopkins twenty seven points

704
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 3: per game in twenty seven games, and I think in

705
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 3: thirteen without them they're averaging eighteen. It's almost a ten

706
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 3: point differential. And then Kyler Murray personally is but nine

707
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 3: to two with a seventy two percent completion percentage of

708
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 3: twenty touchdowns, nine interceptions, two seventy five a game with Hopkins.

709
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 3: Without him, he's three and seven sixty four percent two thirty. Uh,

710
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 3: just start conscience. You'd see it last week when he

711
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 3: was in the game. He you know, had ten catches,

712
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 3: reliable third down target, opens up kind of the outside

713
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 3: and opens up the middle. It's just a much different

714
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 3: offense with him in it. And then I think that

715
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 3: they solve some things on the offensive line. They've been

716
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 3: dealing with injuries. They moved some guys around, put in

717
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 3: Billy Price at center. They got their best protection of

718
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:16,720
Speaker 3: the year. They're back up to Hudson is horrendous. He

719
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 3: played three or four games the worst center in the league.

720
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 3: Got him out of there last week and that did Wonders.

721
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 3: And I also think their defense is a bit underrated

722
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 3: in the market. They got torched. Torch the worst performance

723
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:30,479
Speaker 3: of the season by any team against expectations by the market.

724
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 3: But it was in Week one against the Chiefs, but

725
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 3: they were missing like six starters and they were playing

726
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 3: the Cheets on a good day. They got destroyed. Their

727
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 3: twentieth and EPA per play for the season. But if

728
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 3: you're removed from Week two on their ninth. So I

729
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 3: think their defense is improving healthier, is a little better

730
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 3: than the market assumes. And this Vikings team that they've

731
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 3: won four in a row and they're really rustling their laws.

732
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 3: On that week one win over green Bay, it's like

733
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 3: green Bay missed then eighty our touchdown to start the game,

734
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 3: and look, green Bay is nowhere close to who we

735
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 3: thought they would be. You're their four wins. They beat

736
00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 3: Miami and the stringing then second stary quarterback. They got

737
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 3: out game four sixty to two thirty six and a

738
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 3: half to four and a half yards per play advantage

739
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 3: form Miami, who turned it over three times at one

740
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,400
Speaker 3: hundred yards and penalties. The next week they beat the

741
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 3: Lions dead even games just should have lost, I mean

742
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:15,839
Speaker 3: the Dan Campbell decision late on that kick and then

743
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 3: they score two late touchdowns. Then they beat the Saints

744
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:22,120
Speaker 3: dead even game statistically with their backup in London on

745
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:24,239
Speaker 3: a you know game game out of a field goal late.

746
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 3: And then the Bears, the Bears historically bad offense, it's

747
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 3: five point eight yards per play each one possession game.

748
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 3: I know that they were up big early, but that

749
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 3: that's it. They beat the Bears. The Saints, the Lions,

750
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 3: and the Dolphins back up all by one possession, getting

751
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 3: outplayed in most of those games. So yeah, I don't

752
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:44,440
Speaker 3: this defense isn't that good. And I think that this

753
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 3: is a decent matchup for the Cardinals. And yeah, Kyler

754
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 3: and Cliff on the road as a dog with Hopkins

755
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 3: in the lineup right before their downfall when they're gonna

756
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:55,799
Speaker 3: lose like six and road end of the air.

757
00:34:57,000 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 1: Very important to note though, the key stat Call of

758
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 1: Duty releases tonight.

759
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, but early release. I tweeted about this last week.

760
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 3: I'm all over this early release. You could pay for

761
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 3: the early release last Thursday, So Kyler played Thursday.

762
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 2: That was that was. It was only the campaign. The

763
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 2: multiplayer releases tonight, Duty.

764
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 3: Man, my handicap is wrong on the Call of Duty.

765
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 3: Maybe I gotta buy out?

766
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, gotta buy out. The multiplayer drops tonight.

767
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,320
Speaker 1: That man is not sleeping for the next seventy two hours,

768
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 1: I guarantee you, and he's not thinking about football here.

769
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:35,399
Speaker 2: Other than that, absolutely love your take on this game.

770
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 1: I am not ready to jump aboard the Minnesota Vikings

771
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 1: train right now.

772
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 2: Matt any thoughts here.

773
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I feel like everyone knows Cardinals road underdog.

774
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:48,760
Speaker 4: This is a spot. You don't have to tell me twice.

775
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 3: I don't.

776
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 4: I don't need to know anything else except Kyler Murray

777
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 4: on the road as an underdog. You know, as suck said,

778
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:58,719
Speaker 4: fifteen right, fifteen three and two against the spread in

779
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:03,879
Speaker 4: that spot for or Cliff Kingsbury's Cardinals. Absolutely amazing trend there.

780
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 4: I bet this on the look ahead because I was

781
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 4: just like, you know what, like I don't care what

782
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:09,360
Speaker 4: happens this weekend. I know I'm gonna be on the spot.

783
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna grab this number. So I had it

784
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 4: at five and a half. When I grabbed it, I

785
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:15,880
Speaker 4: would still bet it a three and a half. I

786
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 4: absolutely am was stuck on this on this bet here.

787
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, anything anything over three, I like to.

788
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 1: The next game up for you here, Matt. We got

789
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 1: a pair of them to finish us off. The Indianapolis

790
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 1: Coats with Sam Ellinger quarterback, are gonna be taken on

791
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 1: the Washington Comedies.

792
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 2: Are you riding with Sam?

793
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 4: Yeah? As disgusting as it is, I am going with

794
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:40,280
Speaker 4: a six rounder who has never had an NFL start

795
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 4: before as a home favorite. I will do it. And

796
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:47,759
Speaker 4: for me, it's you know, it's the rush offense that

797
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:52,319
Speaker 4: in theory he can provide. You know, Matt Ryan, he

798
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 4: hasn't been great this year, you know, six justed yards

799
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 4: pertent number twenty nine, but the Colts running game has

800
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 4: been even worse, right astoundingly. They're bottom three in rushing

801
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 4: efficiency and now they're taking on a defense that's top

802
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:07,000
Speaker 4: ten against the run, you know, basically in whatever you

803
00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 4: know defensive run efficiency metric you're looking at. But maybe

804
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 4: with Ellinger he can help out the ground game. You know,

805
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 4: six rounder making his first start, so obviously that's disgusting,

806
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:19,400
Speaker 4: but in the preseason he was pretty good passing the

807
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,399
Speaker 4: ball twenty four to twenty nine, two hundred and eighty

808
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:24,359
Speaker 4: nine yards and four touchdowns. And you know, with Frank Reich,

809
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 4: you know, guiding him if that's an actual thing, maybe

810
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 4: he plays within the system well enough to go against

811
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:33,840
Speaker 4: the Commander's defense that is number twenty nine in past DVOA.

812
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 4: And then the big thing is that he's got the mobility,

813
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:39,799
Speaker 4: the explosiveness that Matt Ryan has never had. And in

814
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 4: four years at college he was a pretty good runner.

815
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:46,200
Speaker 4: You know, four hundred and fifty nine carries two hundred well, yeah,

816
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 4: twenty five hundred and ten yards on the ground, thirty

817
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 4: three rushing touchdowns, that's excluding sacks, and more importantly, one

818
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 4: hundred and seventy three scrambles, and that like really is

819
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:59,360
Speaker 4: the difference that in theory, hopefully he can turn some

820
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:03,720
Speaker 4: of those those pressure dropbacks in sacks for Matt Ryan

821
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 4: into chain moving improvised carries, right, and so I think

822
00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:11,239
Speaker 4: that will be that will be the difference here in

823
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:16,840
Speaker 4: this game. So this number was four on Sunday Monday,

824
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:19,120
Speaker 4: you know, four on Sunday night and Monday morning. Within

825
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:21,800
Speaker 4: an hour of the announcement that Matt Ryan had been benched,

826
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 4: it moved down to two. It met resistance, and now

827
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:27,759
Speaker 4: it's back up to the key number three where you

828
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 4: see it in most sportsbooks kind of you know, jumping

829
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 4: around between three and two and a half. I think

830
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:34,960
Speaker 4: the fact that it hit two and then moved back

831
00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 4: up to three, like that's the sign that the market

832
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 4: thinks Ellinger can play or at least keep this game close.

833
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 4: So I think the the explosiveness that he adds and

834
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 4: the mobility that for me moves this towards the Colts

835
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 4: at two and a half.

836
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:52,879
Speaker 1: Stucky is Matt crazy or is he on to something here?

837
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 1: Because I am inclined to go with if you have

838
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 1: an offensive line that is struggling, you want to get

839
00:38:57,640 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 1: the quarterback with mobility instead of the one who is

840
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:01,320
Speaker 1: an eighty nine year old statue.

841
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 4: But are you.

842
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:05,919
Speaker 2: Confident in Sam Ellinger in his first start here?

843
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 3: I don't know. Some people can get the I don't know.

844
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 3: I do think that there's the backup quarterbacks in general

845
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:16,239
Speaker 3: and their first starter undervalue, Like the market tends to

846
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 3: think that the backup is much worse than the starter.

847
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:22,440
Speaker 3: I'd never like, I'm never on the right side of

848
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 3: those like Brett Rippon last week I was on the Broncos.

849
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 3: But yeah, I do think that his mobility can bring

850
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:31,799
Speaker 3: an added dimension to this offense. Also, it's like, from

851
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:35,239
Speaker 3: a preparation standpoint, they're going to run some different looks.

852
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 3: You don't have a lot of film on them, so

853
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 3: you know it's like, hey, we know what to do

854
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 3: with Matt Ryan on second third long he just blits

855
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 3: them and he can't move and then he throws a pick.

856
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think his mobility will add here. I

857
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:48,200
Speaker 3: don't know. The Colts games are so weird, like the

858
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 3: only thing I know about, Like they always lose it

859
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 3: to Titans. Always bet them. They always play the Titans

860
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 3: and loose to them, and they don't cover somehow on

861
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 3: like Flukes. Then they always lose to the Jags. I

862
00:39:57,000 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 3: do always have the Jags in Jacksonville, but all the

863
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:02,320
Speaker 3: results are so random to me, Like they beat the

864
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 3: Chiefs at home, they should have lost that game. Then

865
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 3: they covered against the Jags, like the last second touchdown somehow.

866
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:11,280
Speaker 3: I don't know here, I'm gonna heads of Colts. It's Colts,

867
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 3: all right, there you go that that would be my line.

868
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 3: I have no clue, no clue. But with this line,

869
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 3: cup down to three, Colts are nothing and Ellinger's mobility

870
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 3: and the unknown for the prep here can only help

871
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 3: the Colts.

872
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 2: Give me Taylor Heinekey. I'm taking Taylor Heinekey and the

873
00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 2: Commanders in this box.

874
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:33,879
Speaker 3: That's another thing is there's so much variance in this game, Like, yeah,

875
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:36,880
Speaker 3: what are you going to get from Ellen when he

876
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:39,839
Speaker 3: throws it? And Heineke's of high variant quarterback, He's gonna

877
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 3: make some risky throws. He might hit some he might

878
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 3: throw a pick six, like last week he had a

879
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 3: pick six and then there should have been another you know,

880
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 3: when he got stripped, but there was a lucky a

881
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 3: bad defensive holding call on the packers. Packers getting really unlucky,

882
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 3: like you mentioned these unlucky Packer things by the way,

883
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:01,440
Speaker 3: but he's he's gonna be. You could get bad Heinekey

884
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 3: here and we'll have two turnaments that cost them the

885
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:06,279
Speaker 3: game easily. But that could happen with Ellinger. You can

886
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:08,759
Speaker 3: have good Heinekey. I don't know. This game is very

887
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:09,360
Speaker 3: very weird.

888
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 1: Guys, football season is here and if you want to

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898
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:42,799
Speaker 1: the action today, guys. Enjoy the football season and let's

899
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:44,080
Speaker 1: cash some tickets together.

900
00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:46,360
Speaker 2: Now back to the show now.

901
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 1: Matt You will ride with Sam Allinger in his first

902
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 1: start as a sixth round pick. You will not ride

903
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 1: with the once in future king Geno Smith going up

904
00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 1: against the Giants here Seattle laying three points. Are you

905
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:05,360
Speaker 1: believing in Big Blue and the Giants here in this spot?

906
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 3: Yeah?

907
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 4: I mean Geno Smith awesome. The career Genaisance has been

908
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:13,359
Speaker 4: something to behold and I think it is real. But yeah,

909
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:15,720
Speaker 4: I'm I'm on the Giants here. You know, Daniel Jones

910
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,360
Speaker 4: thirteen and four against the spread as a road underdog,

911
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 4: a little Kyler esque in that trend there, and yeah,

912
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:26,200
Speaker 4: it's for me. The Giants run offense against the Seahawks

913
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:28,479
Speaker 4: run defense. You know they want to run the ball.

914
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 4: You know they do it at fifty eight percent rate,

915
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 4: which is hard to do in today's NFL, But you know,

916
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:35,719
Speaker 4: they're just committed to the run. And I guess you know,

917
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:38,799
Speaker 4: you have Saquon Barkley, you have Daniel Jones, You're gonna

918
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:42,120
Speaker 4: be running the ball. You know, Barkley is the league

919
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 4: leader with one hundred and forty three carries. I think

920
00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 4: you know, with him, he's the best back in the league,

921
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:49,759
Speaker 4: if not the best back in the league. A top

922
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:52,400
Speaker 4: three back right now, like certainly come back player of

923
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 4: the Year Gino Smith aside. So I'm impressed with what

924
00:42:57,680 --> 00:43:00,839
Speaker 4: he's doing. And you know Daniel Jones, I mean, he

925
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 4: is a legit running threat. He's had six carries in

926
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:05,800
Speaker 4: every game this year. Among quarterbacks, he's number four and

927
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 4: rush attemts number three in rush yards. I mean, obviously

928
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 4: last week he and Barkley both had one hundred yards

929
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:14,319
Speaker 4: on the ground. Like that's that's something you don't see

930
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:16,400
Speaker 4: that often, and when you do, it's normally like Lamar

931
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 4: Jackson doing it. But you know, we got that last week.

932
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:23,239
Speaker 4: And the Giants, Yeah, they're going to be without right

933
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:25,880
Speaker 4: tackle Evan Neil, they might be without their left guard.

934
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:28,800
Speaker 4: You know, I don't think either one of those guys

935
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 4: has a big run blocking edge over the guys who

936
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 4: were backing them up. And as mediocre as the Giants

937
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:36,239
Speaker 4: offense has been, they've been really good running the ball.

938
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 4: You know that that is clearly the strength. They're number

939
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 4: three in rush EPA for play. The Seahawks defense is

940
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 4: average against the run, number eighteen in rush EPA. And

941
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,759
Speaker 4: you know, I have the Giants power rated ahead of

942
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 4: the Seahawks primarily because you know, I do trust Brian

943
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 4: Dable more than I trust Pete Carroll is his situational

944
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 4: decision maker. And as strong as the home field advantages

945
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:01,200
Speaker 4: at Lumenfield, I think that that is, if not the

946
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:03,840
Speaker 4: strongest home field advantage in the league, like top three,

947
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 4: I still think that no team in today's NFL has

948
00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:10,320
Speaker 4: a three point home field advantage. So if the Giants

949
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:13,240
Speaker 4: can run the ball effectively against the Seahawks, I think they're.

950
00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 2: Going to cover here, Stucky, what are you thinking in

951
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 2: this one?

952
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:20,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, tough game, it's uh, I mean, look, you got

953
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:22,360
Speaker 3: the Giants are the luckiest seem in the NFL. Like

954
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:26,759
Speaker 3: we actually that with our Lucky metric by my guy

955
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 3: Sean Kerner, and like they've been the luckiest. I mean

956
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 3: everyone knows that. I mean they but some of that

957
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:33,799
Speaker 3: goes to coaching, I mean, and that's what they were

958
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:37,720
Speaker 3: my favorite season win total over before the season because

959
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:40,360
Speaker 3: I thought the coaching upgrade, they went from really bad

960
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:43,560
Speaker 3: to really good. And they also had horrible injury luck

961
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 3: last year. The injuries are now a bit concerning, you know,

962
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:48,960
Speaker 3: tight end to just a lot of guys out that

963
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:51,239
Speaker 3: are blocking for you at once. But I mean Look,

964
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:54,200
Speaker 3: they beat the Panthers by three at home, they beat

965
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:55,840
Speaker 3: you know, they come back to beat the Titans on

966
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:59,319
Speaker 3: the road by one. They lose the Cooper rush. They

967
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 3: beat the Bears one possession at home. They come back

968
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:05,560
Speaker 3: and beat the Packers that they were down double digits

969
00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:08,239
Speaker 3: the fourth quarter. They down double digits the fourth quarter

970
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 3: against the Ravens, like they got dominated that game was

971
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:12,520
Speaker 3: like seven to three and a half yards per play.

972
00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:14,919
Speaker 3: Come back again to beat the Giants. They're outscoring teams

973
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:16,400
Speaker 3: fifty five to ten in the fourth quarter if you

974
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:20,839
Speaker 3: remove an intentional safety. Just insane. So eventually that luck

975
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 3: is gonna run up. But they're well coached and so yeah,

976
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:27,000
Speaker 3: from a number of perspective, I can't really get here,

977
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:31,799
Speaker 3: but it's an awful spot for the Giants. Like you know,

978
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:36,200
Speaker 3: the back to back road games from Jacksonville out the Seattle. Historically,

979
00:45:36,200 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 3: teams haven't done that well. And I think this and

980
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:40,880
Speaker 3: the Giants defense has not been good. They are like

981
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 3: last week, they get up seven yards per play some

982
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:45,960
Speaker 3: not only about seventeen points. There's a lot of holes there.

983
00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:49,239
Speaker 3: Gino has looked good against the Blitz too, and that's

984
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 3: all the Giants they're gonna play man and they're gonna

985
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:52,800
Speaker 3: play Blotz dude, the two highest rates in the league.

986
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:56,359
Speaker 3: So I'd be more confident in the Seahawks offense here,

987
00:45:57,280 --> 00:45:58,759
Speaker 3: although now you have an injury to one of your

988
00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 3: best receivers, so it's yeah, this is this is a

989
00:46:02,719 --> 00:46:05,440
Speaker 3: weird game for me because it's two teams that have

990
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:08,800
Speaker 3: definitely overperformed. But the interesting thing to me, the interesting

991
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 3: unit in this game is the Seahawks defense. And they

992
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:15,719
Speaker 3: were horrendous. I thought they were gonna be one of

993
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:19,040
Speaker 3: the worst in the league, and they were thirty first

994
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 3: DVOI JUSTI for opponent up until the past two weeks,

995
00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:26,640
Speaker 3: and then over the past two weeks they're number one

996
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:28,840
Speaker 3: in the NFL. Yeah, and they played with the de

997
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 3: Charters and the Cardinals, and they have some of these

998
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:34,239
Speaker 3: young corners, so like you could point to reasons why

999
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:36,399
Speaker 3: they would be improving. They got a lot of young

1000
00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 3: pieces Dreik Wooland on one side is everyone talks about

1001
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 3: Sauce Gardner. He is turning into a shutdown cornerback, same

1002
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:45,480
Speaker 3: mold of the like Richard Sherman. He's the long, lanky

1003
00:46:45,600 --> 00:46:48,760
Speaker 3: cornerback that Pete Carroll's always loved. You got Kobe Bryant

1004
00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:53,160
Speaker 3: in the slot, and you know they're Their defense is

1005
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:55,760
Speaker 3: playing a lot better and it wasn't against like terrible

1006
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:58,960
Speaker 3: offenses like the Jets. Sorry for the dig So, I

1007
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:01,480
Speaker 3: don't know. Is the Seewks defense improve. It's again, it's

1008
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 3: two games. There's a lot of noise. Weird things happen

1009
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:06,839
Speaker 3: in the NFL on a week week basis. But I'm

1010
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 3: interested in watching with the Seahawks defense does over the

1011
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:12,880
Speaker 3: next few games. I don't mind taking the Giants on

1012
00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:17,640
Speaker 3: the number. My gut and the spot says the Seahawks

1013
00:47:17,640 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 3: get it done. But you can make a case for

1014
00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:20,560
Speaker 3: either side. Tough game.

1015
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 1: I'm inclined to go against Matt here and bet with

1016
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 1: the Geno Smith experience, but I could see it going

1017
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:28,840
Speaker 1: both ways. I completely agree this is going to be

1018
00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:29,480
Speaker 1: a tough one here.

1019
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 2: Matt.

1020
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:32,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Seattle first half, Just go Seattle. You

1021
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:35,440
Speaker 3: what about Seattle? Just bet Seattle first half before the

1022
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:37,560
Speaker 3: Giants sports down voodoo comes into effect.

1023
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:39,720
Speaker 2: I think that's a really good idea.

1024
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:42,240
Speaker 1: But that is going to do it for us here, Stucky,

1025
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:44,319
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us today one more time,

1026
00:47:44,320 --> 00:47:45,960
Speaker 1: where can people find you and all the great work

1027
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:47,000
Speaker 1: you're doing around the internet.

1028
00:47:47,800 --> 00:47:53,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's Stucky too on Twitter and on the Action

1029
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:57,600
Speaker 3: Network at just search Stucky when you're on there, and

1030
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:01,319
Speaker 3: I'm I think that's a campus podcast college football if

1031
00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:03,760
Speaker 3: you're into that. That'll be out tomorrow actually Nework Podcasts

1032
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 3: for NFL. But yeah, just check me out on Twitter

1033
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:08,440
Speaker 3: mainly Stucky too. I'll let you know where you can

1034
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 3: find any of my stuff on a weekly basis.

1035
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:11,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, Stucky one taken.

1036
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Stucky's take Stucky was well I want to

1037
00:48:16,640 --> 00:48:19,200
Speaker 3: just Stucky, which was taken obviously. And then Stucky one

1038
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 3: was this guy and like, I've always heard that Twitter

1039
00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 3: purges accounts when they're not active, but Stucky one, let's see,

1040
00:48:27,480 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 3: I haven't checked in a while. Yeah, Stucky one is

1041
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:31,719
Speaker 3: still an account. June two thousand and nine, he has

1042
00:48:31,840 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 3: and I joined in like twenty ten, twenty eleven. He

1043
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:38,360
Speaker 3: has one tweet on June third, two thousand and nine,

1044
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:42,319
Speaker 3: and it just says mm and then period you. So

1045
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 3: like someone I think was messing like what are you

1046
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 3: up to and he's like, not much you but he

1047
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 3: tweeted it out. That's his only tweet he is like

1048
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 3: no followers, no following, and I messed it once like

1049
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:55,560
Speaker 3: let me get this, Uh can I get Stucky one?

1050
00:48:56,560 --> 00:49:00,960
Speaker 3: But now uh always been Stucky too.

1051
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:04,320
Speaker 2: Well, you got to code with the brand at some point.

1052
00:49:04,840 --> 00:49:07,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, a couple of things. I'm in a similar boat,

1053
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:10,399
Speaker 4: Matthew Friedman, just some guy March two thousand and nine,

1054
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:15,400
Speaker 4: hasn't tweeted anything, thanks Friedman. Number one, similar situation, but

1055
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:19,200
Speaker 4: number two the NFL pod that Stucky does with Chris

1056
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 4: Ravon where they break down the slate and they do

1057
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:25,000
Speaker 4: their Sunday six pack look at Thursday Night Football. One

1058
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 4: of the best betting shows I think across the industry

1059
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 4: each week. It's one of my must listens. Absolutely love

1060
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:33,040
Speaker 4: that show.

1061
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:35,960
Speaker 2: And Chris Raybond also friend of the show.

1062
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:39,440
Speaker 1: Yeah all right, well that is going to do it

1063
00:49:39,480 --> 00:49:41,480
Speaker 1: for us here one more time. Stucky, thank you so

1064
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:44,320
Speaker 1: much for joining us. And this is actually going to

1065
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 1: do it for me as well, Matt. As you alluded

1066
00:49:47,600 --> 00:49:51,160
Speaker 1: to last week last show when we had Rufus Peabody on,

1067
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:55,120
Speaker 1: I am in fact headed over to join him at

1068
00:49:55,239 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 1: Unabated and this will be my last betting Pros podcast

1069
00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:02,359
Speaker 1: here with you and Matt. I just wanted to say,

1070
00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:05,400
Speaker 1: first off, to everyone at BP, it has been an

1071
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 1: awesome experience being here with all of you, Joe, Derek, Chris,

1072
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:13,000
Speaker 1: so many names, even in my short time here, but

1073
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:16,600
Speaker 1: especially to you guys that have listened and been fans

1074
00:50:16,600 --> 00:50:20,440
Speaker 1: of the show, and absolutely most importantly to you, Matt.

1075
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:24,040
Speaker 1: Working with you over the past two NFL seasons, first

1076
00:50:24,040 --> 00:50:27,279
Speaker 1: at FTN and then here has been nothing short of

1077
00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:29,359
Speaker 1: some of the most fun that I have had in

1078
00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:33,080
Speaker 1: this industry. And I am sorely going to miss being

1079
00:50:33,120 --> 00:50:35,640
Speaker 1: able to do this show with you, and I certainly

1080
00:50:35,719 --> 00:50:38,560
Speaker 1: know that we will keep in touch. But I truly

1081
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:41,640
Speaker 1: cannot be more grateful for anything that anyone has done

1082
00:50:41,680 --> 00:50:44,319
Speaker 1: for my career more than I am to you and

1083
00:50:44,360 --> 00:50:46,040
Speaker 1: everything that you have been able to give me in

1084
00:50:46,120 --> 00:50:48,799
Speaker 1: terms of these opportunities to be here and doing this

1085
00:50:48,840 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 1: with you, And I just wanted to.

1086
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:53,279
Speaker 2: Say a very very big thank you to you, especially yeah,

1087
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 2: in my final show.

1088
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:56,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's awesome that you're going to have an opportunity

1089
00:50:56,960 --> 00:50:59,719
Speaker 4: to work with Rufus and Captain Jack and everyone else

1090
00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 4: there innovated, so great opportunity and I'm sure you will

1091
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 4: crush it there. And yeah, you know At some point

1092
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 4: we'll have you back on the show.

1093
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:10,880
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to it already, but for now, guys,

1094
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 1: best of luck this weekend with the NFL weekend slate,

1095
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:16,640
Speaker 1: and as always, let's cash some tickets.