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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

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Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and am Marie Hordern. Join us each

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Speaker 2: day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and

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Speaker 2: geopolitics from our global headquarters in New York City. We

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Speaker 2: are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to

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Speaker 2: nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify

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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. I want to

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Speaker 2: bring in Muhammad Aloud of Queen's College, Cambridge. Mhammad joins us. Now, Muammed,

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Speaker 2: you've had a few minutes to go over these numbers,

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Speaker 2: your initial reaction, and then we can get to the much,

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Speaker 2: much bigger picture going forward from here.

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Speaker 1: So well, I agree generally that this is not as

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Speaker 1: relevant as it normally is as an employment report. I

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Speaker 1: do focus on zero point three percent monthly earnings growth.

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Speaker 1: When people rush to predict lots of FED cuts, they

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Speaker 1: forget the difference between what is necessary and what is

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Speaker 1: necessary and sufficient weakness pronounced weakness in the economy is

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Speaker 1: necessary for the sorts of cuts that are being priced in,

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Speaker 1: but they're not sufficient. The FED needs some sort of

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Speaker 1: air cover on inflation. And most forecasts of inflation, as

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Speaker 1: Jeff said, are now going to the three to three

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Speaker 1: and a half percent at the PCE core level, So

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Speaker 1: this is quite a move. The point three monthly earning

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Speaker 1: growth that we saw in today's report is not consistent

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Speaker 1: with air cover on inflation. So this is a report

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Speaker 1: that suggested the Fed wait and see. And my hope

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Speaker 1: is that Jeff Powell this later this morning will do

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Speaker 1: two things. He will walk back the notion that the

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Speaker 1: terriff impact on inflation will be transitory and let's eliminate

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Speaker 1: that word again from its vocabulary. And the second thing

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Speaker 1: I hope he walks back is the ease with which

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Speaker 1: he dismissed the soft data, because, as Stephanie said, expect

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Speaker 1: the hard data to weaken in the months ahead.

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Speaker 3: Mohammed, are we dismissing the strength of this labor market

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Speaker 3: report at our own peril? The idea that corporate America

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Speaker 3: has thrived despite what the US government has occasionally done,

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Speaker 3: and that there is quite a bit of robustness and

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Speaker 3: people who are employed and able to absorb a greater

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Speaker 3: amount of price increases that might get passed along to them.

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Speaker 1: I think, Lisa, what this reminds you is that the

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Speaker 1: structure of the economy is fine. And this is important

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Speaker 1: because while there is general agreement on a very bumpy

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Speaker 1: few months, the significant disagreement on where this would lead to.

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Speaker 1: Now those who think that the pain is worth the

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Speaker 1: gain that's coming forward. It's just a matter of time,

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Speaker 1: and the structure of the economy is strong enough to

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Speaker 1: take us through it is very bumpy journey, and there

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Speaker 1: are others that were we that the structure of the

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Speaker 1: economy is not as strong as we think it is.

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Speaker 1: This number here gives you some confidence that the economy

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Speaker 1: is fine if we can just avoid repeated self inflicted wounds.

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Speaker 2: If you are just joining us, welcome to the program.

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Speaker 2: Moments ago, a big upside surprise on a payrolls report

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Speaker 2: to twenty eight the estimate one forty. And we look

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Speaker 2: at the charts in the immediate aftermath of that job's number,

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Speaker 2: This market hardly blinked. You're just stilled down fifteen basis

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Speaker 2: points at the front end of the curve three fifty two,

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Speaker 2: and in the equity market at the moment, equally, futures

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Speaker 2: are lowered by two point eight percent. Mohammad was looking

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Speaker 2: forward to chairman power at eleven twenty five and Stephanie

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Speaker 2: Rothy talked about that word transitory, the t word, just

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Speaker 2: like I can today.

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Speaker 4: I would imagine he won't use it again.

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Speaker 5: I guess, of course, we'll see, but I think we'll

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Speaker 5: have to be a little bit more cautious about this.

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Speaker 5: And I think it's also important to think out the

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Speaker 5: fact that transitory one does doesn't mean the same for

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Speaker 5: every person, which is the problem.

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Speaker 4: And the extent of the tariffs are so big that.

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Speaker 5: It might take a really long time for this inflation

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Speaker 5: shock to work its way through the economy.

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Speaker 2: So they get hiding word, as you know, speaks to

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Speaker 2: the same mistake we all remember, which was waiting too long.

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Speaker 2: That's the problem with the tea word at the moment,

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Speaker 2: waiting too long to do something about inflation this time around.

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Speaker 2: I wander conditioned by their previous experience, do they wait

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Speaker 2: too long to do something about growth and downside risk

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Speaker 2: to growth, because that's the major risk for this market.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that's potentially the case, and they're going

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Speaker 5: to have to wait and see. And by the way,

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Speaker 5: they're going to be watching inflation expectations they've anchored, especially

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Speaker 5: the last time in twenty eighteen, they said inflation expectations

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Speaker 5: were the main anchor to determine whether they can look

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Speaker 5: through it or whether they have to act more hawkishly

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Speaker 5: as a result. And if inflation expectations start to pick up,

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Speaker 5: they're going to be in a tough situation for a

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Speaker 5: little while. They're gonna have to wait until things get

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Speaker 5: really bad before they can act. And by the way,

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Speaker 5: inflation expectations long term ones are largely driven by your

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Speaker 5: most recent experience with inflation. Well, in twenty eighteen, we

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Speaker 5: had no inflation in the past prior years.

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Speaker 4: This time it's very different, and inflation.

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Speaker 5: Expectations are likely to pick up a lot more given

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Speaker 5: experience with inflation and the fact that these terrafs are

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Speaker 5: just so.

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Speaker 3: Large, which raises a question, Jeff and I would love

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Speaker 3: your thoughts on this. How the bond market responds to

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Speaker 3: either a duvish message from Fedschair j Powell or.

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Speaker 4: A hawkish message.

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Speaker 3: If he does put transitory back in the bottle, does

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Speaker 3: that give you more confidence frankly to go into long

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Speaker 3: term bonds because eventually they might have to cut rates

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Speaker 3: a whole lot more.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, it's really interesting if you look at

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Speaker 6: the last two days in what has transpired in terms

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Speaker 6: of the bond market. So yesterday you saw a big

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Speaker 6: rally in rates, but it was mostly led by the

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Speaker 6: intermediate and short end. If you look at the thirty

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Speaker 6: year portion of the curve, it lagged for a brief

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Speaker 6: moment in time.

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Speaker 7: It barely budged at all. Contrast that to today, and

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Speaker 7: today what you're seeing is a very different picture from

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Speaker 7: the bond market, and probably the most striking is that

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Speaker 7: you're seeing not only longer term inflation expectations fall, but

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Speaker 7: even some of the shorter term inflation measures. And so

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Speaker 7: the steventy was.

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Speaker 8: Just talking about it.

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Speaker 7: It'll be challenging for the Fed because it depends on

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Speaker 7: how you're measuring inflation expectations. So everybody's seeing the Michigan survey.

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Speaker 7: The survey measures will likely be going higher in an

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Speaker 7: environment where people are seeing higher prices due to terrace.

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Speaker 7: You know, potentially that gets a little bit offset by

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Speaker 7: what we're seeing in oil, but the impact in terms

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Speaker 7: of survey responses maybe to higher inflations. Meanwhile, in the

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Speaker 7: bond market, they're really looking at the financial conditions tightening

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Speaker 7: that's going on, seeing the implications for consumption. Seventy percent

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Speaker 7: of the economy is driven by that side, and that's

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Speaker 7: quite negative and starting to price in today much more

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Speaker 7: of a deflationary environment. So you're seeing the back end

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Speaker 7: of the curve fall, you're seeing break Eban's fall, and

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Speaker 7: you're even seeing short end inflation measures, which have really

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Speaker 7: been this story about stagflation. When you measure the stagflation,

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Speaker 7: it's short measures. Inflation in the near term is expected

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Speaker 7: to go up. Now some of that stuff is starting

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Speaker 7: to get rolled over. So it's possible here the bond

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Speaker 7: market may try to lead the Fed to this message

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Speaker 7: of transitory by basically cutting the interest rates, both in

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Speaker 7: real and nominal terms.

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Speaker 2: I can tell you this market moves not leading the

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Speaker 2: President to change in his mind, just posting on through

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Speaker 2: social right now saying that my policies will never change.

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Speaker 2: If you're looking for someone to blink this morning, it's

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Speaker 2: not the President at the moment.

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Speaker 3: He says, to the many investors coming into the United

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Speaker 3: States and investing massive amounts of money, my policies will

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Speaker 3: never change.

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Speaker 4: This is a great time to get.

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Speaker 3: Rich richer an ever before, which raises this question of

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Speaker 3: how much the bond market and the stock market matter

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Speaker 3: to him at a time where there is real concern

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Speaker 3: on Wall Street that isn't being reflected.

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Speaker 2: In his commentary, Jeff mentioned crude crude is down by

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Speaker 2: seven and a half percent on w Cipron is down

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Speaker 2: by close to seven four percentage points, Muhammad, Quite clearly,

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Speaker 2: this is a shock to the cycle. Quite clearly, we're

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Speaker 2: repricing growth lower. From your perspective, how much of a

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Speaker 2: shock to the system is it and how long does

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Speaker 2: it take to internalize major regime changes like the one

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Speaker 2: we might see.

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Speaker 1: So John, we are repricing growth outlook in a significant manner.

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Speaker 8: Interestingly, the beta for the rest of the.

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Speaker 1: World is catching up. It started out being a US phenomenon.

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Speaker 1: Now it's spreading. People are realizing that if the US

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Speaker 1: growth rate falls by x, it may form then by

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Speaker 1: more than x outside the US, and I think that

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Speaker 1: is correct. Debta is greater than one outside the US.

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Speaker 1: So it's a major, major revisiting of the growth outlook.

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Speaker 1: How long it depends on what other countries decide. Right now,

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Speaker 1: the president's message will encourage other countries to retaliate.

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Speaker 8: You see, there's a choice out there between retaliate, the escalate,

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Speaker 8: or just wait. And we all want.

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Speaker 1: The escalation, but the escalation requires both sides to play

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Speaker 1: along and for there to be an amount of trust

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Speaker 1: that this is not a multi round where you're going

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Speaker 1: to have to renegotiate every time. If you de escalate,

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Speaker 1: now it will hold. That isn't there right now, So

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Speaker 1: I suspect you will see more countries move towards what

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Speaker 1: China did, which is a response that involves both tariffs

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Speaker 1: and non tariffs. And where that comes in for the

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Speaker 1: bond market is we're not going to start talking not

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Speaker 1: just about interest rate risk, but credit risk in the

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Speaker 1: bond market. Credit risk has been on until very recently,

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Speaker 1: really well protected, but now we're starting to see it

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Speaker 1: come under pressure, and credit investors no longer have the

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Speaker 1: shield of all in the yield because.

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Speaker 8: Both components now are in play.

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Speaker 1: So the next thing to look in the bond market,

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Speaker 1: John is going to be not just a government bonds,

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Speaker 1: but look at credit and in particular high yield, because

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Speaker 1: that is significantly vulnerable right now.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we saw yesterday the biggest spread widening going back

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Speaker 3: to the heart of the pandemic in some of those

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Speaker 3: riskier instruments. We caught up with you earlier this week, Muhammad,

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Speaker 3: and you said that it's about a fifty to fifty

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Speaker 3: chance in your estimation that we either have some sort

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Speaker 3: of Reagan and Thatcher esque reordering of the global trade system,

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Speaker 3: or you go back to the seventies, you go back

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Speaker 3: to Carter on steroids. Do you still think it's fifty

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Speaker 3: to fifty?

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Speaker 8: I do. What has changed?

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Speaker 1: If you remember I said my own perception is fifty

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Speaker 1: to fifty. The market is at eighty twenty. The market

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Speaker 1: is absolutely convinced this is a wagon Thatcher moment. I

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Speaker 1: think that eighty has come down in the last couple

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Speaker 1: of days and for good reasons. So yes, I'm still

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Speaker 1: out of fifty to fifty because there is the upside

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Speaker 1: of significant innovations in tech that are there that are

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Speaker 1: multi year beneficial to productivity.

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Speaker 8: So yes, I'm still fifty to fifty.

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Speaker 1: The market is replicing now closer to fifty to fifty,

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Speaker 1: which is I think that that's the correct thing for

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Speaker 1: the markets to do.

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Speaker 2: We can answer that, I think there's a lot of

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Speaker 2: faith at a moment. Based on the conversations we've had

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Speaker 2: so far this morning, Lisa, that many people still don't

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Speaker 2: believe these tariffs even go on, and if they do,

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Speaker 2: it won't last long. We've got these two key dates now.

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Speaker 2: April fifth is tomorrow, so that's the baseline ten percent tariff.

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Speaker 2: April ninth is when you hear the twenty on the EU,

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Speaker 2: twenty four on Japan, thirty four on China, and the

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Speaker 2: big numbers on everybody else. Everybody thinks that we can

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Speaker 2: negotiate something in between. I think they're scared of the

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Speaker 2: moment that we won't. But if you go through all

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Speaker 2: the research on Wall Street right now, the base case

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Speaker 2: is this won't happen, and I wonder where that fight

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Speaker 2: comes from.

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Speaker 3: At a certain point, there was this belief heading into

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Speaker 3: this year that the Fed put was there and that

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Speaker 3: the Trump put was there. To imagine that an administration

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Speaker 3: would allow an economy to tank or a market to

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Speaker 3: tank seems infeasible, and I think that's what a lot

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Speaker 3: of people are looking at. If you put on top

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Speaker 3: of that this question of where is the off ramp

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Speaker 3: for the tit for tat retaliation? How do we start

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Speaker 3: to estimate the damage from that, it becomes a fool's

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Speaker 3: errand try to model out. And I think a lot

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Speaker 3: of people are just saying, look, we're just going to

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Speaker 3: assume that's not going to happen.

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Speaker 2: Jeff, where does that fith come from in the market

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Speaker 2: right now? That is so bad it just won't happen.

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Speaker 6: I think as you're pointing out that fail or as

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Speaker 6: Muhammad was pointing out, I think that faith is being

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Speaker 6: is being challenged day by day, and I think that's

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Speaker 6: why you're seeing the market reactions. Yeah, so you know,

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Speaker 6: I think the only path forward is to observe what

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Speaker 6: this administration and the policies that it chooses to implement are.

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Speaker 6: It's very possible to forecast, but the eighty twenty to

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Speaker 6: fifty to fifty I think is right, and you see it,

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Speaker 6: you know, in these in these market reactions.

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Speaker 4: Sephany, how do you model this?

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Speaker 5: So we've definitely tried to model this a number of

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Speaker 5: different ways base cases, We've taken the we've done the

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Speaker 5: fools that are an approach, and tried to model from

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Speaker 5: a global perspective, what happens if we play all of

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Speaker 5: the tariffs, what happens if everybody else retaliates in kind,

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Speaker 5: and then you get some offsetting factors.

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Speaker 4: That looks the numbers are kind of comically bad.

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Speaker 5: You're looking at something like a two to three percentage

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Speaker 5: point headwind on GDP if this all really plays out again.

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Speaker 5: We don't think it will play out to that extent.

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Speaker 5: We think it will be pretty severe, which is why

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Speaker 5: we took a growth growth estimates down for this year

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Speaker 5: two point five.

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Speaker 4: Percent and recession jobs.

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Speaker 5: Up to forty percent, because this is these policies are

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Speaker 5: bad and it's hard for the administration to walk away

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Speaker 5: away from it unless something forces them to do so,

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Speaker 5: and we're not there yet.

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Speaker 2: Stephanie Raltha will three such a special thanks alongside Jeff

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Speaker 2: Rosen of Blank Rog Muhammad, I just wanted to give

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Speaker 2: you the final word before we go. What you'll be

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Speaker 2: looking for going into the weekend and as we reset

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Speaker 2: coming into next week. What's the number one thing at

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Speaker 2: the top of your list.

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Speaker 8: Number one is listening to the administration.

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Speaker 1: I think there is a belief that you may have

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Speaker 1: to break some things to remake the global order, but

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Speaker 1: remaking the global order is the objective. And you have

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Speaker 1: the very specific example of X where you had to

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Speaker 1: break things to remake it at the back of people's mind.

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Speaker 1: But also listen to business, and I've been on the

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Speaker 1: phone NonStop with business leaders.

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Speaker 8: And they are not waiting John.

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Speaker 1: They see hit on the cost side, They're worried about

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Speaker 1: demand destruction on the revenue side, and they're starting to

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Speaker 1: make difficult decisions about the balance between profit margin, compression,

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Speaker 1: higher prices and cutting costs.

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Speaker 8: And these discussions, believe me, are really active.

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Speaker 1: Business is not gonna wake because they're going to try

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Speaker 1: to rebuild resilience because whatever people disagree on, I think

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Speaker 1: most of us agree on this being a very uncertain environment.

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Speaker 2: Mohammed, I appreciate your time, sir as always, Mohammed, are

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Speaker 2: in there of Queen's College, Cambridge with this around the table,

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Speaker 2: micro Jesus of Morgan standing Michael komorning, good morning. This

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Speaker 2: is tough for a lot of people. It's so bad

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Speaker 2: it just won't happen. Is that your position on things?

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Speaker 9: Well, I think there's probably plenty of room for negotiation.

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Speaker 9: We just don't know what the parameters are, right, So

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Speaker 9: when we'd expect that lower terrariffs, potentially asset purchases, potentially

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Speaker 9: more military spending in some of these situations might help,

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Speaker 9: but really we're in this discovery process right now of

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Speaker 9: what the sufficient conditions are. Unfortunately, and they don't think

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Speaker 9: this will clarify anything for anyone. They're probably different conditions

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Speaker 9: for different countries. So we shouldn't go into this, at

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Speaker 9: least from my perspective, thinking that any of these negotiations

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Speaker 9: will go quickly or any of this terraff relief will

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Speaker 9: come about quickly, and so we do need to price

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Speaker 9: in at least most of the negative consequences of these choices.

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Speaker 3: What is the significance of the formula that this Trump

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Speaker 3: administration use to come up with the teriff rights on

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Speaker 3: each country?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, I only know what they've told us,

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Speaker 9: which is effectively that it's supposed to be a representation

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Speaker 9: of the trade deficit and that in a theoretical world

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Speaker 9: where if tariffs are equalized, that there would be no

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Speaker 9: good trade deficit. That said, you know, I don't know

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Speaker 9: if the information we're supposed to take from that is

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Speaker 9: that their end goal is to just get good trade

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Speaker 9: deficits down to zero, or if just that they apply

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Speaker 9: the methodology and they're willing to talk about it again.

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Speaker 9: I think we're in that discovery process over the next week.

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Speaker 9: But either way, it doesn't seem like we're going to

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Speaker 9: get relief quickly from any of this.

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Speaker 3: I was speaking with an investment manager yesterday and I said,

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Speaker 3: you know, what is your methodology of taking all of

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Speaker 3: the data that we're getting it and ranking it, etc.

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Speaker 3: And they said, I run a lot. I run frequently.

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Speaker 3: What are on earth that you're telling your clients? Yeah.

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Speaker 9: I think what we said coming into the year is

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Speaker 9: that we did think that higher tariffs were going to

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Speaker 9: be a fixture of the US policy posture. We thought

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Speaker 9: it was going to be mostly aligned with China and

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Speaker 9: kind of rest of world would be a lighter touch.

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Speaker 9: That's still generally true, but the China tariffs happened faster

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Speaker 9: than we thought. We did think they'd get to sixty percent,

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Speaker 9: but we thought that was kind of an early twenty

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Speaker 9: twenty six event, and rest of world would sort of

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Speaker 9: be product by product in a lighter touch.

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Speaker 4: So the new thing we have to bake.

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Speaker 9: In here is rest of world tariffs are higher. There's

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Speaker 9: at least that ten percent minimum, and then there's higher

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Speaker 9: levels on top of that, maybe some of that and

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Speaker 9: it gets negotiated back. But that means there is a

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Speaker 9: weaker growth outlook than we would have anticipated. So now

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Speaker 9: we have to price in weaker growth, higher recession probability,

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Speaker 9: and unfortunately, we think most risk markets just aren't priced

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Speaker 9: for that reality.

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Speaker 8: Yet.

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Speaker 9: Some of the stuff becomes positive catalysts once you've price

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Speaker 9: that in, but we're not quite there yet.

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Speaker 2: Do you entertain the theory that this was about getting

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Speaker 2: the band stuff out the way, getting rights down, getting

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Speaker 2: bond yachts below four percent down towards three before they

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Speaker 2: come out with a massive tax plan.

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Speaker 4: Do you entertain any of that?

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Speaker 2: You know?

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Speaker 9: I tend to look at this more as it was

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Speaker 9: a sequencing of what was available to them politically and

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Speaker 9: sort of legislatively going into this. Right So, because you

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Speaker 9: could sort of make a theory that, hey, why don't

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Speaker 9: we just do the tax cuts first and create space

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Speaker 9: to operate and incur some of the pain around tariffs

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Speaker 9: and the effort of kind of this grand remaking it,

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Speaker 9: that's what people hopedful, right, But I think practically speaking,

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Speaker 9: the ability to actually extend tax cuts and or do

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Speaker 9: more wasn't going to be on offer early because you

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Speaker 9: had to work through the budget reconciliation process really slim majority,

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Speaker 9: So you work with the things that are executive controlled,

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Speaker 9: which is terroriffts, because that's that's open to you, and

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Speaker 9: the legislative stuff was just always going to take longer.

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Speaker 9: So I don't know there's a lot of rhyme or

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Speaker 9: reason to it other than the administration's doing what they

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Speaker 9: can do with the tools they have available in service

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Speaker 9: of their medium term goals, and this just happens to

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Speaker 9: be the sequencing of it.

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Speaker 2: The challenge at the moment for a lot of us

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Speaker 2: is to kind of put markets to one side and

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Speaker 2: think about where we'll be twelve months out. Yeah, in

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Speaker 2: twelve months time, when you've got your hands around the

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Speaker 2: more complete policy platform, not just trying but taxes as well,

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Speaker 2: what's the mix going to look like?

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Speaker 9: Well, listen, there's two ways to think about this, as like,

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Speaker 9: are you better off twelve months from now than you

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Speaker 9: would have been if these choices haven't been made. That's

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Speaker 9: an open question, And now I think answering that question

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Speaker 9: isn't necessarily relevant in the sense of the real question

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Speaker 9: is can we price in the kind of negative effects

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Speaker 9: of making these policy attempts? And once you've done that,

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Speaker 9: can the policy choices you make to kind of ease

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Speaker 9: that get it better. So if we were to kind

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Speaker 9: of fully price in higher recession probabilities, weaker growth outlook,

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Speaker 9: and then some of these negotiations on tariffs workout, and

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Speaker 9: then maybe we get a bigger tax cut, then we

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Speaker 9: anticipate because right now we think it's going to be

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Speaker 9: mostly an extension of the TCJA.

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Speaker 4: Those things can.

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Speaker 9: Be positives on top of pricing in negative outcomes. So

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Speaker 9: I think we to go through the praising and the

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Speaker 9: negative outcomes first.

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Speaker 3: Yesterday there were a lot of historic kinds of comments,

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Speaker 3: a lot of catastrophic rhetoric see changed the loss of

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Speaker 3: US exceptionalism. Did you take comfort in the fact that

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Speaker 3: treasuries rallied and John mentioned this earlier that even though

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Speaker 3: people were talking about boycotting US goods or boycotting the

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Speaker 3: US dollar, you did see yields go lower as a

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Speaker 3: have in trade.

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Speaker 9: I mean, it was obviously incredibly large in liquid market,

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Speaker 9: and it makes sense that in times of uncertainty, where

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Speaker 9: growth expectations are weaker, that you'd be buying more treasuries.

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Speaker 9: I think that to us was sort of never in question.

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Speaker 9: I know there are sort of hypothetical longer term concerns.

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Speaker 9: But that's why we've had this preference for fixed income

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Speaker 9: over equities coming into the year and then throughout all

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Speaker 9: of this and think that's still the way to be

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Speaker 9: positioned right now.

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Speaker 2: That's the silver lining for me, And I wasn't your

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Speaker 2: base case, but I'd be extremely worried if we woke

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Speaker 2: up one morning and you had all those people that

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Speaker 2: were running around saying we're going to see an exodus

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Speaker 2: of money from the United States. People are going to

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Speaker 2: dump dollar denominated assets. They're dumping equities because that's associated

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Speaker 2: with growth. I don't think it's a sign here that

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Speaker 2: they're dumping dollar denominated assets because of the policy volatility,

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Speaker 2: because that would show up in treasuries too, and that

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Speaker 2: is what would really concern me. And that's the silver

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Speaker 2: lining I think from the cross asset price section of

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Speaker 2: the past twenty four hours or so, then at least.

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Speaker 3: The United States is not acting like an emerging market

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Speaker 3: in this respect, because that's exactly.

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Speaker 4: The dollar weakness.

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Speaker 2: But the dollar weakness accompanied with a bond market sell

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Speaker 2: off would be getting my attention in a much more

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Speaker 2: negative way, and I think it would get the federal

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Speaker 2: reserves as well.

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Speaker 3: We're a far way away from that, and the United

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Speaker 3: States still is the dominant market, which goes to this

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Speaker 3: idea of how do you get perspective at a time

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Speaker 3: of a lot of superlatives.

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Speaker 2: Let's hope we never see that. Let's be very clear

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Speaker 2: about that. Michael, thank you. So it's good to see

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00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,919
Speaker 2: Michael sees are there of Morgan Stanley. This is the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Sevenants podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics,

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00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,160
Speaker 2: antient politics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg

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00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:58,360
Speaker 2: TV weekday mornings from six am to nine am Eastern.

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00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 2: Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else

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00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:04,679
Speaker 2: you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and

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00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:05,920
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 7: Mm hmm