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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go there throwing in Joe spect

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Speaker 3: so I'm saying it's a catch totop. We'll see most

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Speaker 3: gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible.

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Speaker 4: Big banksmall banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 5: All right, this is the ultimate kabash you want to pack.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 6: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Fandels. Who's

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Speaker 6: your NFL Week four Best Bets Episode? I'm your host today,

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Speaker 6: Brendan glass Sheen joined by three Action Network experts who

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Speaker 6: We're going to go through each of their three favorite

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Speaker 6: bets for each of the weekends. Action of course coming

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Speaker 6: your way Sunday. As a reminder, you can follow along

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Speaker 6: on the Action app by following our count Action Network

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Speaker 6: NFL picks six and three in Week three for the

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Speaker 6: squad seventeen and ten overall through three weeks of Action

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Speaker 6: led by Vegas refund Luke Swayne, he's been the man.

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Speaker 6: Easy to see how he's gotten so popular these last

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Speaker 6: couple of years. He started the season seven and two

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Speaker 6: with his picks. He's now looking away from the screen

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Speaker 6: like all right, stop talking, about me, Jenckson man So

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Speaker 6: joining Luke today, Luke just take it and run with it, okay.

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Speaker 1: Joining Luke.

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Speaker 6: Brandon Anderson de Martinez will join us this week in

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Speaker 6: for Jill. As a reminder, catch Dane hosting the new

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Speaker 6: live show at Action Networkgreen Dot Daily, weekdays at noon

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Speaker 6: Eastern on the Action Network YouTube page and also the

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Speaker 6: Green Dot Daily podcast. Folks, unders have been hitting at

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Speaker 6: a high rate thirty and seventeen against the number through

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Speaker 6: three weeks. You have to go back to nineteen ninety

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Speaker 6: one through the first three weeks of the season. The

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Speaker 6: last time an underrate was this high was nineteen ninety

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Speaker 6: one at seventy one percent. Hit thirty and twelve record

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Speaker 6: for unders through three weeks. Then you got twenty twenty

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Speaker 6: two at thirty and seventeen. And also I thought this

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Speaker 6: was interesting from Evan Abrams at Action Network. Through three weeks,

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Speaker 6: we have seen a total of twenty four home underdogs

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Speaker 6: and twenty four home favorites.

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Speaker 1: Exactly.

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Speaker 6: Even in the last forty years, we've never seen as

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Speaker 6: many twenty four home underdogs in the first three weeks

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Speaker 6: of the season. That has not happened before. So some

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Speaker 6: historic stuff here through these first couple of weeks. As

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Speaker 6: we always do to start our best Bets episode, let's

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Speaker 6: go around the horn. Here a one sentence summary for

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Speaker 6: week four. Brandon Anderson, per usual, get a start, and please.

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Speaker 5: I'm calling this prove it Week.

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Speaker 7: Twenty eight out of thirty two teams have either a

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Speaker 7: one or two wins. So it's just time to see

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Speaker 7: what's real from all these teams.

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Speaker 1: All right, what do you got for us? Dave Martinez,

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Speaker 1: welcome back.

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Speaker 4: Hey, thank you. I'm going to go with separation Sunday.

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Speaker 3: Similar to Brandon, I think you start to see what

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Speaker 3: is real, what is fake?

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Speaker 4: Who are truly the better teams in the NFL?

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Speaker 2: And Luke swayin, please, I think this is just a

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Speaker 2: week that I agree with brand approve it week. We

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Speaker 2: got I think eleven sides of three or less in

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Speaker 2: terms of spread, which I believe is the most ever.

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Speaker 2: And if you already picked the Packers and your survivor pool,

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Speaker 2: good luck.

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Speaker 6: Okay, very good. Hamers are home against the Patriots. And yeah,

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Speaker 6: he had to go back to the Cam Newton twenty

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Speaker 6: twenty year when he had COVID Brian Hoyer taking over.

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Speaker 1: That's yet to be seen. We'll see what happens.

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Speaker 6: Mac Jones was in the meeting room today with the Patriots,

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Speaker 6: so we shall see. Okay, first best bet will come

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Speaker 6: from Brandon Anderson. As a reminder, our experts have not

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Speaker 6: consulted with one another before starting this record, so we

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Speaker 6: could get some overlap, we may get some contradictions. We'll

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Speaker 6: see every man for himself here on these best bets.

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Speaker 6: Brandon Anderson hit us hard with pick number one.

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Speaker 5: Well, we're already talking about us.

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Speaker 7: Let me just dive right in and I'm going to

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Speaker 7: pick someone in that Patriots Packers game, and i Am

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Speaker 7: not going to take the big favorites. I'll back the

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Speaker 7: Patriots plus nine and a half. I'll take the underdog here.

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Speaker 7: This line, to me, is an overreaction. Mac Jones is out.

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Speaker 5: We know this.

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Speaker 7: He heard his ankle, We saw the line move. It

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Speaker 7: was six on Sunday morning, reopened eight and a half

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Speaker 7: Sunday evening, jumped to ten and a half, starting to

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Speaker 7: fade back down to where it's a little bit more

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Speaker 7: in range. But to me, this just sets up as

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Speaker 7: a classic Bill Belichick underdog spot. The Patriots have been

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Speaker 7: better than you think offensively, mostly because the run game

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Speaker 7: has been really good. Damien Harris from Monde Stevenson, they're

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Speaker 7: doing it well. And Brian Hoyer, the man can hand

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Speaker 7: the ball off. He's been around the league long enough

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Speaker 7: to get a good handoff down. And the Packers are

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Speaker 7: dead last in rushing defense DBOA. So this is a

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Speaker 7: great spot for Belichick to do the usual underdog thing.

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Speaker 7: You hand the ball off, you milk the clock, keep

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Speaker 7: Aaron Rodgers on the sideline where it can't hurt you,

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Speaker 7: and just try to keep this thing close for a while.

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Speaker 7: Belichick as an underdog thirty seventeen and two against the spread,

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Speaker 7: sixty four percent cover rate, when he's more than a

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Speaker 7: six point dog seventy five percent cover rate, and if

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Speaker 7: he's an underdog after a loss eleven and one against

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Speaker 7: the spread ninety two percent cover rate, and a winning

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Speaker 7: record as an underdog after a loss straight up. So

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Speaker 7: I think this is a great spot for the Patriots

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Speaker 7: underdog Hoyer or Jones. I don't really care hand the

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Speaker 7: ball off, keep it close. The Packers' offense this year

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Speaker 7: is not explosive. They're not a team that's gonna run

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Speaker 7: away and hide in this game. We got a low

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Speaker 7: total here. I like the Patriots to keep it close

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Speaker 7: and get the cover.

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Speaker 6: First half line was six and a half and that

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Speaker 6: is moving down as well towards six. So that's interesting too.

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Speaker 6: Speaking of a low total, the Patriots can kind of

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Speaker 6: hang around you noted, and you laid it out nicely

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Speaker 6: about Belichick and his history. But that's eye popping to

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Speaker 6: that first half number. You've been on this, Brandon Anderson

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Speaker 6: on Green Dot Daily with Dane Martinez.

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Speaker 1: You were telling folks, get it now, go get it.

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Speaker 6: That number could move based on the news that leads

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Speaker 6: us to Dame. What is your first pick for us today?

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Speaker 3: Sure, I'm gonna go with the Baltimore Ravens at home

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Speaker 3: getting three points against the Buffalo Bills. And it's always funny,

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Speaker 3: you know, when we hear the Buffalo Bills the prohibitive

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Speaker 3: favorites to win the Super Bowl, people assume they're gonna

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Speaker 3: go seventeen and oh like, if we fast forward in

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Speaker 3: the future and they do, in fact go thirteen and

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Speaker 3: four or something like this, this would be a legitimate

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Speaker 3: one that they could still drop. They're facing the number

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Speaker 3: one offense in the NFL in Baltimore, thirteen touchdowns over

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Speaker 3: thirty three points a game, and remember that Buffalo defense

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Speaker 3: is still banged up. I'm Dane Martinez. It was good

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Speaker 3: to see Dane Jackson back at practice in the red

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Speaker 3: non contact jersey, but still no Micah Hide still got

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Speaker 3: you know, Ed Oliver banged up, and I think that

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Speaker 3: will be a problem against this Baltimore offense.

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Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson, okay, are you ready for this?

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Speaker 3: Without any of his rushing statistics would be the QB

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Speaker 3: five in Fantasy football so far, and without any of

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Speaker 3: his passing statistics would be RB eleven in Fantasy football

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Speaker 3: as of now. So I actually think these two teams

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Speaker 3: can shoot it out. But I also believe that we

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Speaker 3: saw some.

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Speaker 4: Miami do something here.

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Speaker 3: They had the too high safety look, kind of taking

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Speaker 3: away the Stefan Diggs over the top, and I think

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Speaker 3: that may be a blueprint that teams start to have

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Speaker 3: against this Buffalo Bills team, forcing Josh Allen to like

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Speaker 3: take what's given to him, maybe run as well. I

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Speaker 3: think three points for the Baltimore Ravens is too much

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Speaker 3: at home, because I think they were a Super Bowl contender.

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Speaker 3: I think Lamar is an MVP contender. And here's the

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Speaker 3: other thing I said to Brandon Anderson as well this week.

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Speaker 3: If you have a strong position on this game, I

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Speaker 3: would also correlated bet that quarterback in the MVP market

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Speaker 3: because whether it's Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, if one

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Speaker 3: of them pop off and get a victory over the other,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna see them as the favorite. I think it's Lamar.

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Speaker 3: I think it's Baltimore. Give me the Ravens plus three

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Speaker 3: at home.

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Speaker 6: On the Fanduels sportsbook Lamar Jackson plus five fifty to

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Speaker 6: win MVP. The next man ahead, the only man ahead

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Speaker 6: of them Josh Allen at plus three hundred. So that's

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Speaker 6: great advice by Dan Martinez. Should be a fascinating scene

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Speaker 6: Baltimore and Buffalo this weekend. Luke Swayne, how about your

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Speaker 6: first pick for us?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna be on the Ravens plus three as well.

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Speaker 2: It's just a really really hard spot for the Bells

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Speaker 2: after that Miami game where there are a lot of

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Speaker 2: narratives coming out of that Miami Bill's game from last

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Speaker 2: week about Miami's defense being on the field for ninety

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Speaker 2: plus plays, which means that the Bills defense was on

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Speaker 2: the field for ninety plus plays, and if you're watching

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Speaker 2: that game Man. The Bills offense, it was like the

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Speaker 2: wife was just getting sucked out of them. You had

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Speaker 2: guys falling on the ground, cramping up. Diggs was just

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Speaker 2: it was just a total struggle. And then when you

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Speaker 2: go to Baltimore to play a Superbowl contender the next week, like,

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Speaker 2: I just don't see it where I looked it up.

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Speaker 2: Offenses that played ninety plus plays and are favored the

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Speaker 2: next week have gone four and fourteen against the spread

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Speaker 2: in our nine and nine straight up, which like small

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Speaker 2: sample size but definitely favors the Ravens. And then Lamar

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Speaker 2: five and dollars an underdog at home and Harball eleven

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Speaker 2: and four at home as underdog. There are some weather concerns,

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Speaker 2: but if they do come into play, I think they

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Speaker 2: favor the Ravens greatly and I'll just take the Ravens

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Speaker 2: plus three easy money.

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Speaker 6: I'm sure we'll have more discussions about whether later on

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Speaker 6: in the program thanks to the old hwer Kane a

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Speaker 6: game that is affected by that. Let's go back to

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Speaker 6: Brandon Anderson pick number two for us, please.

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Speaker 7: Well, last week we went in on Cliff Kingsbury. I'm

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Speaker 7: going back to the Kingsbury. Well, this week, but I'm

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Speaker 7: flipping sides. I'm going to bet with Cliff Kingsbury as

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Speaker 7: an underdog Cardinals plus one and a half in Carolina.

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Speaker 7: So this is another line that moved a lot after

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Speaker 7: the weekend, and I think it moved in correctly. It

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Speaker 7: was two and a half for the Cardinals as favorites

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Speaker 7: before Sunday's games. The Cardinals went out and lost to

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Speaker 7: the Rams. Okay, they played them relatively even. They had

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Speaker 7: five long drives to end the game, but kept stalling

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Speaker 7: for field goals.

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Speaker 5: The Panthers finally got a win. The Panthers were not good.

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Speaker 7: The Panthers really the Saint's got a loss, is what

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Speaker 7: happened in their matchup. And this line swung four points

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Speaker 7: the other direction. And I'm not really sure we learned

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Speaker 7: much about either of these teams that should have moved

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Speaker 7: the line at all. Importantly, here, Cliff Kingsbury, we fade

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Speaker 7: him against the Sean mcvays of the world, like we

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Speaker 7: did last week. We fade him against the great coaches.

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Speaker 7: Guess who's not a great coach? Our friend Matt Rule

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Speaker 7: over with Carolina, who I don't even know why the

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Speaker 7: man is still coaching that team.

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Speaker 5: This year. And I'll tell you this right now.

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Speaker 7: This game is our last chance ever to bet against

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Speaker 7: Matt Rule as an NFL favorite.

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Speaker 5: That's it.

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Speaker 7: This is your chance as a favorite. And Matt Rule

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Speaker 7: is three and ten against the spread, but he's three

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Speaker 7: and ten straight up. He loses as a favorite nearly

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Speaker 7: every time. He's lost seven in a row outright as

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Speaker 7: a favorite. And and remember Baker Mayfield has not been

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Speaker 7: on this team till recently. Mayfield eleven twenty two and

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Speaker 7: a one against the spread, thirty three percent cover rate.

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Speaker 7: As a favorite, he has failed to cover seven in

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Speaker 7: a row as a favorite. Why are Baker Mayfield and

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Speaker 7: Matt Rule favorites in an NFL game in twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 7: I don't understand it. I will take the Cardinals Kingsbury

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Speaker 7: as an underdog nineteen nine and two against the spread,

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Speaker 7: covering sixty eight percent. And I talked about a coaching disparity.

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Speaker 7: If you look at Kingsbury as an underdog against any

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Speaker 7: coach in NFL history who has not won a Super Bowl,

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Speaker 7: that's it. Just remove the Super Bowl winning coaches. Kingsbury

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Speaker 7: is an underdog eleven oh and a one against the spread.

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Speaker 7: He has never failed to cover against one of these

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Speaker 7: non Super Bowl winners straight up on the money line

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Speaker 7: nine to one, one hundred and eight percent ROI. I

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Speaker 7: like the Cardinals here, they should be favorites. I like

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Speaker 7: beans Joseph blitzing against mak Er Mayfield. I'll take the

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Speaker 7: Cardinals plus one and a half. I'll take the money line.

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Speaker 6: Quickly, Brandon Anderson, there are some two and a half's

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Speaker 6: out there just a few days ago.

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Speaker 1: Any idea why that may have been the case?

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Speaker 5: I truly I don't like.

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Speaker 7: Normally, I'm very good at Devil's advocating and trying to say, okay,

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Speaker 7: well here's what happened on the other side, And I

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Speaker 7: guess what happened is Cliff Kingsbury. Like maybe that's the answer,

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Speaker 7: is like, oh, actually, this was the last time to

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Speaker 7: bet against Cliff Kingsbury.

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Speaker 5: Maybe that's where we're headed.

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Speaker 7: The weather could be a factor here as well, but

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Speaker 7: I'm not really sure which direction that goes. Christian McCaffrey

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Speaker 7: is not practicing now, so that could be a factor

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Speaker 7: as well. That's obviously Carolina's offense, so I think we're

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Speaker 7: gonna see a lot of Baker passing, and that is

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Speaker 7: not a good sign that you want the Panthers. I'll

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Speaker 7: stay on the Cardinals here.

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Speaker 6: Okay, that's a good thing that if you don't know

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Speaker 6: why if you go to the two and a half,

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Speaker 6: great And I can't think that's what I'm getting out here,

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Speaker 6: so yes, just curious, but yeah, that's uh, that's interesting. Okay,

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Speaker 6: let's go back to Dave Martinez for his second pick.

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Speaker 3: Well, and I gotta give a disclaimer here. I am

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Speaker 3: unfortunately a Jets fan. My grandparents had season tickets in

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Speaker 3: Chase Stadium watching Joe Namath. Okay, so I'm sorry Grandma

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Speaker 3: and grandpa, but I'm going with the Steelers minus three

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Speaker 3: against the New York Jets. And what it comes down

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Speaker 3: to is we're expecting the return of Zach Wilson, and

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Speaker 3: I just think this is a tough assignment to come

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Speaker 3: right back go on the road against Pittsburgh. And here's

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Speaker 3: the key stat I want people to see. It's the

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Speaker 3: turnover margin of these two teams. Pittsburgh is plus four,

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Speaker 3: the Jets are minus three. I think that will kind

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Speaker 3: of remain. I think the Jets make more mistakes in

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Speaker 3: this one on the road with Zach Wilson coming back

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Speaker 3: than Pittsburgh does. We've all been talking about this Pittsburgh

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Speaker 3: offense and how they're kind of bland, right, dink and dunk,

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Speaker 3: But I think that'll be just enough in this one

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Speaker 3: against the Jets defense. The only prayer, in my opinion,

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Speaker 3: the Jets have is to run the ball. Pittsburgh has

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Speaker 3: not been good against the run, and we'll see if

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Speaker 3: Breece Hall and Michael Carter can do it. But I

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Speaker 3: don't think that's the case. I think the Jets will

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Speaker 3: turn the ball over. I think Zack Wilson will be

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Speaker 3: under pressure in his first game back. Alex high Smith

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Speaker 3: with four and a half sacks already, and you're telling

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Speaker 3: me these two teams that both average less than eighteen

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Speaker 3: points a game. I don't think the Jets are gonna

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Speaker 3: do much here in the return of Zach Wilson. I

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Speaker 3: think it's going to take some time. I'll take the

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Speaker 3: home team laying only three points. I think the Pittsburgh

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Speaker 3: Steelers get it done.

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Speaker 6: Full week of rest and then some from Mike Tomlin

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Speaker 6: and company nine to four and one against the numbers

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Speaker 6: over the last five years. Full full week of rest,

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Speaker 6: and then he's also seventeen to ten ats off a

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Speaker 6: double digit loss, which if you all remember, I don't

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Speaker 6: know if that's necessarily fair to call that a double

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Speaker 6: digit loss. You got a little weird at the end there,

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Speaker 6: but hey, it goes down as a double digit loss.

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Speaker 1: So what are you gonna do?

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Speaker 6: Very good, Luke Swayne, your second best bet, please.

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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go with the Broncos plus two and

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Speaker 2: a half. And if you remember this past weekend Sunday

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Speaker 2: night game which was the Niners and the Broncos, and

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Speaker 2: it was.

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Speaker 1: Just twitch by the way, you were on Denver plus one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, which it was a tough game to watch, and

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Speaker 2: it was just Russell Wilson versus probably the best defense

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Speaker 2: in the league right now.

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Speaker 1: And when you go to the Raiders, which are.

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Speaker 2: Probably bottom three or four defense in the league, it's

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Speaker 2: just a playdown where I think this game is going

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Speaker 2: to be more of the Broncos offense versus the Seahawks,

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Speaker 2: which is a game they probably should have wigned. If

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Speaker 2: you subtract the red zone goal line fumbles, where I'm

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Speaker 2: higher on the Broncos offense, I think then everyone else

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Speaker 2: and I do have hope where Judy and kJ Hamler

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Speaker 2: should be more healthy. This week and it's just I

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Speaker 2: think everyone is picturing how bad they looked this past

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Speaker 2: weekend and underrating how good this Niners defense is, which

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Speaker 2: going into a Raiders defense that are thin, they should

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Speaker 2: just it should be I guess, quote unquote the cliche

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Speaker 2: get right game for the Broncos offense.

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Speaker 5: So I'll take Broncos plus two and a half.

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Speaker 1: Okay, very good. That.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, that was quite the tractor poll that we had

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Speaker 6: to watch on Sunday. Let's go to Brandon Anderson and

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Speaker 6: get each of the guys' final picks. The pick number

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Speaker 6: three BA.

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Speaker 7: All right, I'm going to go to the AFC South

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Speaker 7: for the two teams everyone still thinks erroneously are the

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Speaker 7: class of the division, the Titans and the Colts, and

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Speaker 7: I will take the Titans on the road plus three

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Speaker 7: and a half. Look, both these teams got their first

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Speaker 7: win on Sunday. Everyone's kind of feeling like, all right,

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Speaker 7: Titans are back, Colts are back. I'm not really sure

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Speaker 7: either of these teams is back. These teams are both

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Speaker 7: built around their old school mentality run the ball, control

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Speaker 7: the clock, and they're not doing it. Neither one of

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Speaker 7: them is doing it this year. The offensive lines have

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Speaker 7: not been good. Both teams are bottom ten and rushing

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Speaker 7: DVA so far. So what you need to look at

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Speaker 7: it is, okay, where is there an advantage here? Who

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Speaker 7: can actually do things on offense? The Colts ranked dead

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Speaker 7: last on offensive DVA, second to last and EPA per play. However,

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Speaker 7: the Titans can pass the ball. I'll take the better

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Speaker 7: Ryan here, and that's Ryan Tannehill, not Matt Ryan. Matt

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Speaker 7: Ryan has been terrible, can't move in the pocket, making

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Speaker 7: all sorts of mistakes, basically like they just cloned Carson

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Speaker 7: Wentz and kept him around. Ryan Tannehill is actually connecting

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Speaker 7: down the field and has been good against the Colts.

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Speaker 7: He hit three touchdowns both games against them last year.

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Speaker 7: He is eleven and seven straight up as an underdog

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Speaker 7: with the Titans, and in this division rivalry, the road

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Speaker 7: team has actually been really good. Has won six of

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Speaker 7: the last seven games in this rivalry. So I like

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Speaker 7: the spot for Tennessee. I think they're getting too many

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Speaker 7: points here. Mike Vrabel, when he has more than a

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Speaker 7: three point underdog, is eighteen and seven against the spread,

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Speaker 7: covering seventy two percent of the time, and he's one

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Speaker 7: outright seventeen out of those twenty five games, one hundred

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Speaker 7: and two percent ROI. So you want Mike Rabel when

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Speaker 7: he's a big underdog, the script sets up in his favor.

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Speaker 7: I like the Titans. I smell an upset or maybe

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Speaker 7: that's just the cults I'm smelling. I don't know, but

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Speaker 7: I'll take Tennessee either way.

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Speaker 1: Could also just be the division.

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Speaker 6: But hey, like we talked about on the Recap show

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Speaker 6: Sunday night, Monday morning, the AFC South went three to

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Speaker 6: zero against the AFC List. Maybe all got to ahead

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Speaker 6: of ourselves on that division. Dave Martinez your final best

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Speaker 6: bet for us?

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Speaker 1: Please?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna be consistent this week.

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Speaker 3: I'm big on turnover numbers, sack numbers, and dual threat quarterbacks.

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Speaker 3: And with that, I'm giving the Philadelphia Eagles minus six

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Speaker 3: and a half at home against Jacksonville. Did you know

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Speaker 3: that before last week, Trevor Lawrence had never won a

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Speaker 3: road game in the NFL. So now you're gonna ask

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Speaker 3: him to kind of be in back to back road

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Speaker 3: games with the long trip.

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Speaker 4: I don't think it's going to happen.

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Speaker 3: Jacksonville is actually plus seven in the turnover margin, and

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Speaker 3: I think that's kind of artificially boosting them. And I

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Speaker 3: don't think Jalen Hurts is going to turn it over

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Speaker 3: only one interception so far. You heard me earlier kind

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Speaker 3: of extol the virtues of Lamar Jackson. Well, Jalen Hurts

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Speaker 3: is the first quarterback in NFL history through three games

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Speaker 3: to have nine hundred yards passing and one hundred and

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Speaker 3: fifty yards rushing. That's why he, too, is in that

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Speaker 3: MVP kind of conversation. The Eagles have the most yards

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Speaker 3: gained out of anybody in the NFL, four hundred and

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Speaker 3: fifty five yards a game, and I don't think this

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Speaker 3: Jacksonville defense will stop them. I also know it's the

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Speaker 3: return of Doug Peterson going back to Philadelphia, but I

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Speaker 3: actually think that helps Philly more than it helps Jacksonville.

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Speaker 4: Under Nick Sirian, this team is completely different.

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Speaker 3: You remember last year, in kind of the middle of

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Speaker 3: the season, they decided we are going to change our

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Speaker 3: identity and become a more run heavy team. Peterson doesn't

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Speaker 3: know about that. If anything, I think it's Philly that

404
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 3: knows the tendencies of a Peterson team and offense. I

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Speaker 3: believe in this Philadelphia team. I believe in Jalen Hurts,

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Speaker 3: and I think Trevor Lawrence is going to be under

407
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Speaker 3: pressure seriously for the first.

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Speaker 4: Time this year.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that Sunshine is good enough to stay

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Speaker 3: in two road games in a row, as long as

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Speaker 3: it stays under seven like it is right now at

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Speaker 3: six and a half, I'll take the Eagles to fly, fly,

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Speaker 3: fly all the way to four and zero.

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Speaker 6: You know, we talked about MVP earlier on the show,

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Speaker 6: and now I'm fascinated if indeed hurts and the Eagles

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Speaker 6: take care of business. I wonder if Alan or Jackson

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Speaker 6: dominates one or the other, does that then catapult Hurts

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Speaker 6: into a real discussion to be the second guy potentially, Brandon,

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Speaker 6: you got a.

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Speaker 1: Thought on that.

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Speaker 7: I do have a thought. I'll give you a different name.

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Speaker 7: I'll take the other quarterback in that game. I'll take

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Speaker 7: Trevor Lawrence. If the Jags go on the and win

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Speaker 7: that game, Trevor Lawrence, I think could vaults himself into

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Speaker 7: MVP conversation is forty to one right now. Have an

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Speaker 7: article up as a long shot futures. I think that's

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Speaker 7: a sneaky play. If the Jaguars are real, Sunshine's gonna

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Speaker 7: get a look.

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Speaker 3: Let me ask you something right back, though, like what

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Speaker 3: would the Jaguars as a team have to do for

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Speaker 3: Lawrence to get serious look for that player award?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, we know they're gonna need to be a top

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Speaker 7: two seed. Any any MVP basically is a quarterback and

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Speaker 7: a top two seed. So we're gonna need a lot

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Speaker 7: But we're banking on I think at that point, bad division,

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Speaker 7: soft schedule defense that looks legit. You don't think it is.

437
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 7: We will see. I think this is a real test

438
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:41,719
Speaker 7: this weekend. But I think that's the case. Is a

439
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:45,160
Speaker 7: team that's improved a lot soft schedule, you need probably

440
00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:48,160
Speaker 7: twelve thirteen wins to get to the conversation. Maybe that's

441
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:50,359
Speaker 7: too much for Jacksonville, but we shall see.

442
00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,400
Speaker 6: When you go Pacific Standard time to Eastern Standard time

443
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 6: two on a road trip like the jagsar last decade,

444
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,399
Speaker 6: those teams are just covering the spread forty percent of

445
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 6: the time, So it's a trend not going their way.

446
00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:04,240
Speaker 6: Hence why Dane likes the Eagles to cover just short

447
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 6: of a touchdown. Luke, take us home your third best

448
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 6: bet for Week four?

449
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, so the last one is going to be the

450
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay Bucks minus one currently on Sunday Night Football,

451
00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:19,880
Speaker 2: which right before this we recorded this, it was announced

452
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:21,440
Speaker 2: that the game is going to be in Tampa Bay,

453
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 2: which is great news and one of the bigger bets

454
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:28,359
Speaker 2: I ever regret is taking the Chiefs against the Bucks

455
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago, which

456
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 2: was one of the most dominant performances I think I've

457
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 2: ever seen. For this defense is very similar to that game.

458
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:39,280
Speaker 2: I'm not saying it's going to be the same game whatsoever,

459
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:41,919
Speaker 2: but looking at the practice reports, a lot of the

460
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,720
Speaker 2: Bucks receivers have been limited to participants. I think we're

461
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,159
Speaker 2: going to get at least one of the godwins Julios

462
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 2: and assuming Gage is going to play, and then we're

463
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 2: getting Mike Evans back as well, which bonus bet. Take

464
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:56,160
Speaker 2: Mike Evans anytime, TD, whatever the odds are, just bet

465
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 2: it and Tom Brady off a loss ten and zero

466
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 2: again to spread. It's just a it's a it's an

467
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 2: easy play for me at home Sunday Night Football, Bucks

468
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:06,720
Speaker 2: minus one.

469
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,359
Speaker 1: Love it, very simple. Enjoy that.

470
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:14,360
Speaker 6: Yeah, gauge part practice Wednesday, Julio was limited, God wouldn't limited,

471
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:15,880
Speaker 6: but all out there.

472
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 2: So then this yeah, and this Bucks defense is legit,

473
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,800
Speaker 2: like it is very soligit. And the you saw what

474
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 2: the Chiefs did last week against the Cult, very much struggle.

475
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:26,200
Speaker 2: The probably should have won that game. But second game

476
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 2: on the road in Tampa, Tom Brady, hello, like, come

477
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:30,479
Speaker 2: on love it.

478
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 6: Okay, those are our best bets. We will recap before

479
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:35,320
Speaker 6: we wrap the show. But before we wrap the show,

480
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 6: let's look very quickly to next week's lines for NFL

481
00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 6: Week five to see if we like any numbers now

482
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 6: before they make any sort of adjustments based on Sunday's action.

483
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:49,440
Speaker 6: Brandon Anderson, because alone on this today, you got one

484
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 6: for us?

485
00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 1: What do you like for week five?

486
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 5: I like the Detroit Lions.

487
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:56,120
Speaker 7: They are one and a half point underdogs in New

488
00:22:56,119 --> 00:23:00,440
Speaker 7: England next weekend. The Detroit Lions are underdogs two Ryan

489
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,879
Speaker 7: Hoyer and the Patriots next weekend. What are we doing?

490
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:05,920
Speaker 7: I had to triple check this line to make sure

491
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 7: it wasn't a typo. The Lions are not going to

492
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 7: be underdogs by the time we get to kick off here. Look,

493
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 7: Detroit is supposed to be beating up on Seattle this weekend.

494
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 7: That's what the Lion tells us, and the Patriots are

495
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:20,159
Speaker 7: probably going to lose in Green Bay. I know, I

496
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 7: backed them just a few minutes ago. There's a difference

497
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,119
Speaker 7: between covering a double digit spread and actually looking like

498
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,959
Speaker 7: a team that should be favored against the Lions, who

499
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:32,400
Speaker 7: have looked good. Detroit's offense is the real deal. They're

500
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 7: blocking well. The run game has been really good. The

501
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,399
Speaker 7: Patriots are bottom five against the run, so this sets

502
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,399
Speaker 7: up very nicely for Detroit. And I just feel like

503
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:44,199
Speaker 7: this line is going to move once people kind of

504
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,399
Speaker 7: wake up to the reality of what Detroit is now

505
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 7: and what Belichick's Patriots and Brian Hoyer aren't anymore. Dan

506
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 7: Campbell has covered ten of his last twelve games, and

507
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,719
Speaker 7: this is back for now into the underdog role that

508
00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 7: he likes. Brian Hoyer, our guy has eleven starts in

509
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 7: a row, and he is favored here. His last win

510
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:09,880
Speaker 7: was six years ago. He has switched teams five times

511
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 7: since winning a game, and we're favoring him.

512
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 5: Take Detroit. I don't think they're gonna last as a favorite.

513
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:17,760
Speaker 5: I like the Lions.

514
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 6: Do not lose sight of this angle to Luke, do

515
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:23,640
Speaker 6: not lose sight of the fact that some of these

516
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 6: Lions players hate Matt Patricia's guts and they want to stay.

517
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:29,680
Speaker 1: I like that.

518
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 2: All I just want to say, I I that is,

519
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 2: you're definitely gonna get value on that, Brandon. But I

520
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:38,440
Speaker 2: do want to say that like Hoyer starting next week,

521
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:40,399
Speaker 2: I don't think it's gonna be mac Jones. But the

522
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,640
Speaker 2: last time a backup started for a former first round

523
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:45,879
Speaker 2: pick that was a quarterback went pretty well. And Bailey

524
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 2: Zappi should definitely get the chance soon. Not saying that

525
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,000
Speaker 2: he's going to make any difference in terms of the line,

526
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 2: but that is a QB unknown.

527
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 5: That is something that always worries me.

528
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 1: We know who Hoyor is.

529
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 6: He's just not good Bailey Zappi.

530
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:06,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's fair that the higher number is definitely.

531
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:07,919
Speaker 4: You're more worried if they go to Zappi.

532
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 2: That's yes, yes, Like one of my number one rules

533
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:17,399
Speaker 2: is like you don't bet against the quarterback that you

534
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:21,159
Speaker 2: know nothing about. Like there is a huge unknown on

535
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 2: Bailey Zappy and that's just a principle for me. But

536
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 2: at the same time, like the Pats aren't good, I

537
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:29,440
Speaker 2: don't think it matters who's that quarterback.

538
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 7: And nonetheless, I agree that there is a fear factor

539
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 7: with Bailey Zappi either rookie if he does get in,

540
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:37,400
Speaker 7: But if he does get in there we're probably gonna

541
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 7: get this line up to like Lions favored by a

542
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 7: field goal or more and then you have a lot

543
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 7: of options from there too.

544
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 5: So I think it's just a great CLV spot right now.

545
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 6: Love that Lions dogs in Foxborough next week.

546
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 1: Let's recap the picks.

547
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 6: Brandon Anderson is on the Cardinals plus one and a half.

548
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,520
Speaker 6: He likes the Patriots this week plus nine and a

549
00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 6: half at lambeau Field and the Tennessee Titans at the

550
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 6: Colts plus three and a half. Luke is on Denver

551
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 6: plus two and a half against the Raiders Ravens plus

552
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:07,119
Speaker 6: three and the Bucks minus one. They are home this week, folks,

553
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 6: they are playing in Tampa. That was announced earlier on Thursday.

554
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:14,159
Speaker 6: And then Dane also likes the Ravens plus three, Steelers

555
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 6: minus three going against his Jets. And then he's got

556
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 6: the Eagles just short of a touchdown at minus six

557
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 6: and a half. That'll do it for our Action Network podcast,

558
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:24,640
Speaker 6: our NFL Week four Best Bets episode thanks to Brandon Anderson,

559
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 6: Dan Martinez and Luke Swayne Vegas refund for joining us today, I'm.

560
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:29,680
Speaker 1: Brendan glass Sheen.

561
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 6: Best of luck everybody with your bets this weekend. We

562
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 6: will join you again Monday morning for our recap show,

563
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 6: recapping week four looking ahead to week five on the

564
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 6: Action Network podcast