Speaker 1: Military analyst Mike Clients, who served with various military organizations
Speaker 1: both the US and Europe throughout his career, respected voice
Speaker 1: on a number of networks publications. Mike, welcome, how are
Speaker 1: you sir? Hey, guy's great to be back with you.
Speaker 1: I saw how surprising was this, uh, the success of
Speaker 1: this counter offensive and how successful was it? No, very surprising,
Speaker 1: and it's clearly something that Ukraine had been planning for strategically.
Speaker 1: It looks like they had some kind of faint that
Speaker 1: went on in the south and care soon where Russia
Speaker 1: can't lose. They can't I If they lose a battle
Speaker 1: down there, then they start to lose Crimea, then they
Speaker 1: lose some of the land that they had taken seven
Speaker 1: or eight years ago. UM. But what they were able
Speaker 1: to do is take an economy of force mission, which
Speaker 1: means they put less people there in Carson from UH,
Speaker 1: faked an offensive there and brought the majority of the
Speaker 1: troops to the north in our Kiev, where they did
Speaker 1: a classic pincer movement and we're able to you know,
Speaker 1: route Russian soldiers that likely were withdrawing anyway, and they
Speaker 1: were moving to to the east and to the south. UM.
Speaker 1: But this is a real, real, tremendous moral victory for
Speaker 1: Ukraine as they take back land that has been occupied
Speaker 1: by Russia since March Um. I think, you know again,
Speaker 1: this is a great day for them. They win a battle,
Speaker 1: but the question still remains us whether or not they
Speaker 1: can win the war or not. Yeah, A couple of
Speaker 1: different dynamics in opposition to each other have got me interested.
Speaker 1: Number One, I understand that some of the economics s
Speaker 1: actions against Russia, limitations on exports and and that sort
Speaker 1: of thing, are going to make it more and more
Speaker 1: difficult for them to resupply their forces. On the other hand,
Speaker 1: they still are a much larger country which with many
Speaker 1: more young men they could call up. How do you
Speaker 1: see that that kind of opposing dynamics working. So you
Speaker 1: look in history and you find what what olgies there existing,
Speaker 1: and you see that wars that start what they think
Speaker 1: they're going to be over quick It's called the Allerle Battle.
Speaker 1: The short war kind of mentality that which Russia had.
Speaker 1: They thought this was going to be over very quickly
Speaker 1: in a in a fast few days. But now two
Speaker 1: d days later it's into this scalemate war. But Christian
Speaker 1: and as history is shown the country that ends up
Speaker 1: winning this kind of war, the ones that have the
Speaker 1: higher industrial strength. Well, that's still Russia. Russia still has
Speaker 1: this capacity, as you said, to put the troops and
Speaker 1: material and men and into this fight, whereas Ukraine is
Speaker 1: going to be somewhat limited. However, it now comes down
Speaker 1: to the West. If the West does resupply, if the
Speaker 1: West does provide material, we have the Germans that should
Speaker 1: be providing pans or tanks and the like, but they
Speaker 1: haven't haven't done them yet. Um. If the West stills
Speaker 1: remains strong at this then they can possibly extend this out.
Speaker 1: But but again history does show that that that you
Speaker 1: still have to look at Russian So they have tremendous capability,
Speaker 1: which is why we can't say that this is they
Speaker 1: haven't They're losing, but they haven't lost yet. In Ukraine
Speaker 1: is winning, but they haven't one yet either. How much
Speaker 1: reinvolved in this counter offensive, do you have any idea
Speaker 1: It's got to do with intelligence and the artillery systems
Speaker 1: and the fact that we were able to deliver munitions
Speaker 1: basically on time. If we're chasing the Russians on the
Speaker 1: other side of the of the of the river, that
Speaker 1: they all sort river. I think that, Um, you know,
Speaker 1: we we were providing them the kind of information that
Speaker 1: allowed the Ukraine military to attack where they knew that
Speaker 1: Russia was weak, and they you know, kind of the
Speaker 1: the old saying, kind of punch a hole in something
Speaker 1: and see what happens. Well, every time they punched a
Speaker 1: hole there, uh, they kept going further on further. That's
Speaker 1: the only way I can see them doing this. I mean,
Speaker 1: some of those Russian units left behind uh food, the
Speaker 1: rations that were in in in uh in containers and
Speaker 1: the like. I mean, we're treating armies to do things
Speaker 1: that are crazy all the time. But the amount of convoys,
Speaker 1: the prisoners of all all these things, the Russians couldn't
Speaker 1: get out of there fast enough. And I just look
Speaker 1: at that and say, you know, we we had the intel.
Speaker 1: We gave them the intel to know where they could attack.
Speaker 1: So they were likely had great optics. Russia was likely blinded,
Speaker 1: didn't know what was going on, and allowed the Ukraine
Speaker 1: forces to really route the Russian forces there. So what
Speaker 1: you're saying about, you know, the bigger country, greater industrial output,
Speaker 1: it's undeniable. Um, but I'm picturing what the next you know,
Speaker 1: chapter of the Russian effort might look like and I'm
Speaker 1: picturing worse supplies, even more antiquated arms and constcripts they've
Speaker 1: called up. I mean, presumably the first wave of guys
Speaker 1: was the best they had. Yeah, they're they're they're getting
Speaker 1: their most of their conventional forces destroyed right now on
Speaker 1: the field. Um, what does what does China do to
Speaker 1: China allow its client state to be humiliated like this? Um,
Speaker 1: we see that they're getting are totally shells from North Korea.
Speaker 1: And that's because likely the things they had in stores
Speaker 1: for the past twenty years that they they're pulling out
Speaker 1: have been rusted and they can't use it. They can't,
Speaker 1: they're not they're not able to um to fire them effectively.
Speaker 1: Uh So again you lay this all over, but they
Speaker 1: still have this induct industrial strength. Think North first, the
Speaker 1: South in the Civil War, right as much as the
Speaker 1: South fought admirably in certain places. I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: July three, eighteen sixty three, if that day goes any different,
Speaker 1: If pickets charged, um succeeds and the South gets to
Speaker 1: the high watermark and the North loses that battle, we
Speaker 1: have a completely different country. Well that's what's happening right
Speaker 1: now there that Ukraine military is finding ferociously doing a
Speaker 1: lot of things on support. But the bottom line has
Speaker 1: never grinded down eventually by the North because it had
Speaker 1: more industrial power. That's what's gonna take place here now.
Speaker 1: It's not going to happen overnight, but that's what's gonna
Speaker 1: happen over the next six months. Wow. See your referenced
Speaker 1: that particular Civil war battle. Um, so that's the way
Speaker 1: a big, big war can go, just that one that
Speaker 1: one day, that one battle, that one decision. Huh yeah,
Speaker 1: I think so. I think you look at things overnight saying,
Speaker 1: like dd a June. There are certain times in history
Speaker 1: we had that day gone differently, the world's completely changed.
Speaker 1: I think that's the most significant day. That get it.
Speaker 1: That day in Geinsburg was the most significant day in
Speaker 1: the nineteenth century. I think. I think every teenager in
Speaker 1: America should be paid to go to Gettysburg and see
Speaker 1: the sacrifice that was made that day by Union soldiers
Speaker 1: for those three days, and and in particular both sides,
Speaker 1: both sides, both north and south, on the field that day.
Speaker 1: Amen to that, you know, I was just rereading an
Speaker 1: account of Gettysburg again, which they made clear that at
Speaker 1: a couple of critical moments there was a literal foot
Speaker 1: race for the high ground and guys who got their
Speaker 1: three strides first one and and repelled the rebels. So
Speaker 1: anyway to that point, Mike lyons military analysts on the line, Uh,
Speaker 1: it's just one more note because I can't let it go.
Speaker 1: What the hell's up with Germany? Why are they not delivering?
Speaker 1: Is it their domestic politics or what it's it's it's annoying. Yeah, No,
Speaker 1: it's hard to say domestic politics since you know, you
Speaker 1: think about where Germany was eighty years ago and where
Speaker 1: they are today, and there's you know, they have they
Speaker 1: do have the largest GDP of all those European countries.
Speaker 1: I think, for example, if they don't get in the game,
Speaker 1: that you're gonna see the polls and you're gonna see
Speaker 1: the Ukraine absolutely sabotage North Stream and North Dream to
Speaker 1: those pipelines. Are gonna make sure that Germany doesn't get
Speaker 1: anything from Russia. It's not coming from there at least,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I think they everybody wants to wake
Speaker 1: up one day and have it be February twenty one,
Speaker 1: where this all just kind of goes away. Um, but
Speaker 1: they own in those tanks, say old them, the artillery pieces,
Speaker 1: air defense platforms. Germany has the most capability of those
Speaker 1: of those NATO countries right now to make a difference.
Speaker 1: And and right now they haven't been in The question
Speaker 1: is that, you know what are they going to get
Speaker 1: in again in the game. They won't because uh, they
Speaker 1: still are hoping among hope that some deal can get
Speaker 1: worked down. My final question the Wall Street Journal editorial
Speaker 1: board today saying we need to be concerned about putting
Speaker 1: using nuclear weapons? Is that still something we should concern
Speaker 1: ourselves with? How much probably tactical nukes. I don't think that.
Speaker 1: I think it escalates things, that it hurts both sides obviously,
Speaker 1: but it also would require then, um, you know, Russian
Speaker 1: citizens would get more involved because I know Ukraine doesn't
Speaker 1: have these nukes. They can try to say they're coming
Speaker 1: from NATO. But I think that we're still a little
Speaker 1: bit of ways from that. I don't expect him to
Speaker 1: to do that right now. You know, he's got he's
Speaker 1: gonna probably try to wait this out for six months.
Speaker 1: He's gonna try to freeze out Europe. He's going to
Speaker 1: hope that Western ryance fails, and he hopes that two
Speaker 1: years from now he'll be able to claim victory. But
Speaker 1: right now he's he's really the Russian military isn't really
Speaker 1: bad shape. Mike Clients, military analyst, Mike, always enlightening. Thanks
Speaker 1: a million for the time. We appreciate it. So then
Speaker 1: the political stuff that you're just talking about with Germany,
Speaker 1: Ian Bremer, you know, he studies this sort of thing
Speaker 1: for a living, but he doesn't think the European countries
Speaker 1: are gonna cave on this energy commitment, that they're gonna
Speaker 1: go ahead and really suck it up and have a
Speaker 1: really harsh, difficult, expensive winter and are and are willing
Speaker 1: to uh to sacrifice in a way that you know,
Speaker 1: as is often the case, we as Americans aren't actually
Speaker 1: having to sacrifice other than tax dollars um and we're
Speaker 1: stealing those from our children as usual deficit spending. Right um,
Speaker 1: the Europeans are gonna, they're gonna, they're gonna notice it
Speaker 1: right away. They're gonna they're they're what it's gonna cost
Speaker 1: to heat your home is just gonna be crazy if
Speaker 1: you can at all. But Ian Bremer seems to think
Speaker 1: that based on all the bowling and I saw some
Speaker 1: of the other days what not, like eighties and ninety
Speaker 1: percentile approval for continuing to support the Ukrainians, that they
Speaker 1: aren't they in Europe, Yeah, that they aren't going to cave. Well,
Speaker 1: sunny Spain and Portugal, in the south of France, they
Speaker 1: need to take refugees from northern Europe at least for
Speaker 1: the wintertime. A bunch of fat, pale Germans stretched out
Speaker 1: on the beach there in Portugal, for instance, just just
Speaker 1: to help out. I just think that could be a
Speaker 1: big deal. I think I think Putin is counting on
Speaker 1: here winners coming. That's when they cave, that's when they
Speaker 1: all turn against it. And uh and I get my
Speaker 1: big advantage. And if, if, if Europe survives the winter
Speaker 1: with the population still being supportive of the war in Ukraine,
Speaker 1: I think Putin's gonna have a long spring and summer. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: it could be. Well, Germany give him those tanks. What
Speaker 1: is this? What is your story? Germany? So weak, big
Speaker 1: promises and no delivery. Uh, Barre strong and Jetty