WEBVTT - Punch A Hole, See What Happens: Mike Lyons Talks To Armstrong & Getty

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<v Speaker 1>Military analyst Mike Clients, who served with various military organizations

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<v Speaker 1>both the US and Europe throughout his career, respected voice

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<v Speaker 1>on a number of networks publications. Mike, welcome, how are

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<v Speaker 1>you sir? Hey, guy's great to be back with you.

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<v Speaker 1>I saw how surprising was this, uh, the success of

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<v Speaker 1>this counter offensive and how successful was it? No, very surprising,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's clearly something that Ukraine had been planning for strategically.

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<v Speaker 1>It looks like they had some kind of faint that

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<v Speaker 1>went on in the south and care soon where Russia

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<v Speaker 1>can't lose. They can't I If they lose a battle

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<v Speaker 1>down there, then they start to lose Crimea, then they

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<v Speaker 1>lose some of the land that they had taken seven

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<v Speaker 1>or eight years ago. UM. But what they were able

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<v Speaker 1>to do is take an economy of force mission, which

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<v Speaker 1>means they put less people there in Carson from UH,

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<v Speaker 1>faked an offensive there and brought the majority of the

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<v Speaker 1>troops to the north in our Kiev, where they did

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<v Speaker 1>a classic pincer movement and we're able to you know,

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<v Speaker 1>route Russian soldiers that likely were withdrawing anyway, and they

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<v Speaker 1>were moving to to the east and to the south. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>But this is a real, real, tremendous moral victory for

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine as they take back land that has been occupied

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<v Speaker 1>by Russia since March Um. I think, you know again,

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<v Speaker 1>this is a great day for them. They win a battle,

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<v Speaker 1>but the question still remains us whether or not they

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<v Speaker 1>can win the war or not. Yeah, A couple of

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<v Speaker 1>different dynamics in opposition to each other have got me interested.

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<v Speaker 1>Number One, I understand that some of the economics s

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<v Speaker 1>actions against Russia, limitations on exports and and that sort

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<v Speaker 1>of thing, are going to make it more and more

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<v Speaker 1>difficult for them to resupply their forces. On the other hand,

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<v Speaker 1>they still are a much larger country which with many

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<v Speaker 1>more young men they could call up. How do you

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<v Speaker 1>see that that kind of opposing dynamics working. So you

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<v Speaker 1>look in history and you find what what olgies there existing,

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<v Speaker 1>and you see that wars that start what they think

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<v Speaker 1>they're going to be over quick It's called the Allerle Battle.

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<v Speaker 1>The short war kind of mentality that which Russia had.

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<v Speaker 1>They thought this was going to be over very quickly

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<v Speaker 1>in a in a fast few days. But now two

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<v Speaker 1>d days later it's into this scalemate war. But Christian

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<v Speaker 1>and as history is shown the country that ends up

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<v Speaker 1>winning this kind of war, the ones that have the

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<v Speaker 1>higher industrial strength. Well, that's still Russia. Russia still has

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<v Speaker 1>this capacity, as you said, to put the troops and

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<v Speaker 1>material and men and into this fight, whereas Ukraine is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be somewhat limited. However, it now comes down

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<v Speaker 1>to the West. If the West does resupply, if the

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<v Speaker 1>West does provide material, we have the Germans that should

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<v Speaker 1>be providing pans or tanks and the like, but they

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<v Speaker 1>haven't haven't done them yet. Um. If the West stills

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<v Speaker 1>remains strong at this then they can possibly extend this out.

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<v Speaker 1>But but again history does show that that that you

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<v Speaker 1>still have to look at Russian So they have tremendous capability,

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<v Speaker 1>which is why we can't say that this is they

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<v Speaker 1>haven't They're losing, but they haven't lost yet. In Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>is winning, but they haven't one yet either. How much

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<v Speaker 1>reinvolved in this counter offensive, do you have any idea

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<v Speaker 1>It's got to do with intelligence and the artillery systems

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<v Speaker 1>and the fact that we were able to deliver munitions

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<v Speaker 1>basically on time. If we're chasing the Russians on the

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<v Speaker 1>other side of the of the of the river, that

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<v Speaker 1>they all sort river. I think that, Um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we we were providing them the kind of information that

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<v Speaker 1>allowed the Ukraine military to attack where they knew that

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<v Speaker 1>Russia was weak, and they you know, kind of the

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<v Speaker 1>the old saying, kind of punch a hole in something

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<v Speaker 1>and see what happens. Well, every time they punched a

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<v Speaker 1>hole there, uh, they kept going further on further. That's

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<v Speaker 1>the only way I can see them doing this. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>some of those Russian units left behind uh food, the

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<v Speaker 1>rations that were in in in uh in containers and

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<v Speaker 1>the like. I mean, we're treating armies to do things

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<v Speaker 1>that are crazy all the time. But the amount of convoys,

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<v Speaker 1>the prisoners of all all these things, the Russians couldn't

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<v Speaker 1>get out of there fast enough. And I just look

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<v Speaker 1>at that and say, you know, we we had the intel.

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<v Speaker 1>We gave them the intel to know where they could attack.

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<v Speaker 1>So they were likely had great optics. Russia was likely blinded,

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<v Speaker 1>didn't know what was going on, and allowed the Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>forces to really route the Russian forces there. So what

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<v Speaker 1>you're saying about, you know, the bigger country, greater industrial output,

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<v Speaker 1>it's undeniable. Um, but I'm picturing what the next you know,

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<v Speaker 1>chapter of the Russian effort might look like and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>picturing worse supplies, even more antiquated arms and constcripts they've

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<v Speaker 1>called up. I mean, presumably the first wave of guys

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<v Speaker 1>was the best they had. Yeah, they're they're they're getting

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<v Speaker 1>their most of their conventional forces destroyed right now on

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<v Speaker 1>the field. Um, what does what does China do to

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<v Speaker 1>China allow its client state to be humiliated like this? Um,

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<v Speaker 1>we see that they're getting are totally shells from North Korea.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's because likely the things they had in stores

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<v Speaker 1>for the past twenty years that they they're pulling out

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<v Speaker 1>have been rusted and they can't use it. They can't,

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<v Speaker 1>they're not they're not able to um to fire them effectively.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh So again you lay this all over, but they

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<v Speaker 1>still have this induct industrial strength. Think North first, the

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<v Speaker 1>South in the Civil War, right as much as the

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<v Speaker 1>South fought admirably in certain places. I mean, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>July three, eighteen sixty three, if that day goes any different,

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<v Speaker 1>If pickets charged, um succeeds and the South gets to

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<v Speaker 1>the high watermark and the North loses that battle, we

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<v Speaker 1>have a completely different country. Well that's what's happening right

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<v Speaker 1>now there that Ukraine military is finding ferociously doing a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of things on support. But the bottom line has

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<v Speaker 1>never grinded down eventually by the North because it had

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<v Speaker 1>more industrial power. That's what's gonna take place here now.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not going to happen overnight, but that's what's gonna

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<v Speaker 1>happen over the next six months. Wow. See your referenced

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<v Speaker 1>that particular Civil war battle. Um, so that's the way

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<v Speaker 1>a big, big war can go, just that one that

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<v Speaker 1>one day, that one battle, that one decision. Huh yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I think so. I think you look at things overnight saying,

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<v Speaker 1>like dd a June. There are certain times in history

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<v Speaker 1>we had that day gone differently, the world's completely changed.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's the most significant day. That get it.

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<v Speaker 1>That day in Geinsburg was the most significant day in

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<v Speaker 1>the nineteenth century. I think. I think every teenager in

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<v Speaker 1>America should be paid to go to Gettysburg and see

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<v Speaker 1>the sacrifice that was made that day by Union soldiers

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<v Speaker 1>for those three days, and and in particular both sides,

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<v Speaker 1>both sides, both north and south, on the field that day.

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<v Speaker 1>Amen to that, you know, I was just rereading an

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<v Speaker 1>account of Gettysburg again, which they made clear that at

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of critical moments there was a literal foot

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<v Speaker 1>race for the high ground and guys who got their

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<v Speaker 1>three strides first one and and repelled the rebels. So

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<v Speaker 1>anyway to that point, Mike lyons military analysts on the line, Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>it's just one more note because I can't let it go.

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<v Speaker 1>What the hell's up with Germany? Why are they not delivering?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it their domestic politics or what it's it's it's annoying. Yeah, No,

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<v Speaker 1>it's hard to say domestic politics since you know, you

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<v Speaker 1>think about where Germany was eighty years ago and where

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<v Speaker 1>they are today, and there's you know, they have they

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<v Speaker 1>do have the largest GDP of all those European countries.

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<v Speaker 1>I think, for example, if they don't get in the game,

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<v Speaker 1>that you're gonna see the polls and you're gonna see

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<v Speaker 1>the Ukraine absolutely sabotage North Stream and North Dream to

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<v Speaker 1>those pipelines. Are gonna make sure that Germany doesn't get

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<v Speaker 1>anything from Russia. It's not coming from there at least,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know. I think they everybody wants to wake

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<v Speaker 1>up one day and have it be February twenty one,

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<v Speaker 1>where this all just kind of goes away. Um, but

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<v Speaker 1>they own in those tanks, say old them, the artillery pieces,

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<v Speaker 1>air defense platforms. Germany has the most capability of those

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<v Speaker 1>of those NATO countries right now to make a difference.

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<v Speaker 1>And and right now they haven't been in The question

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<v Speaker 1>is that, you know what are they going to get

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<v Speaker 1>in again in the game. They won't because uh, they

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<v Speaker 1>still are hoping among hope that some deal can get

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<v Speaker 1>worked down. My final question the Wall Street Journal editorial

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<v Speaker 1>board today saying we need to be concerned about putting

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<v Speaker 1>using nuclear weapons? Is that still something we should concern

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<v Speaker 1>ourselves with? How much probably tactical nukes. I don't think that.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it escalates things, that it hurts both sides obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>but it also would require then, um, you know, Russian

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<v Speaker 1>citizens would get more involved because I know Ukraine doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>have these nukes. They can try to say they're coming

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<v Speaker 1>from NATO. But I think that we're still a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit of ways from that. I don't expect him to

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<v Speaker 1>to do that right now. You know, he's got he's

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<v Speaker 1>gonna probably try to wait this out for six months.

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<v Speaker 1>He's gonna try to freeze out Europe. He's going to

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<v Speaker 1>hope that Western ryance fails, and he hopes that two

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<v Speaker 1>years from now he'll be able to claim victory. But

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<v Speaker 1>right now he's he's really the Russian military isn't really

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<v Speaker 1>bad shape. Mike Clients, military analyst, Mike, always enlightening. Thanks

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<v Speaker 1>a million for the time. We appreciate it. So then

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<v Speaker 1>the political stuff that you're just talking about with Germany,

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<v Speaker 1>Ian Bremer, you know, he studies this sort of thing

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<v Speaker 1>for a living, but he doesn't think the European countries

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<v Speaker 1>are gonna cave on this energy commitment, that they're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>go ahead and really suck it up and have a

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<v Speaker 1>really harsh, difficult, expensive winter and are and are willing

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<v Speaker 1>to uh to sacrifice in a way that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>as is often the case, we as Americans aren't actually

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<v Speaker 1>having to sacrifice other than tax dollars um and we're

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<v Speaker 1>stealing those from our children as usual deficit spending. Right um,

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<v Speaker 1>the Europeans are gonna, they're gonna, they're gonna notice it

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<v Speaker 1>right away. They're gonna they're they're what it's gonna cost

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<v Speaker 1>to heat your home is just gonna be crazy if

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<v Speaker 1>you can at all. But Ian Bremer seems to think

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<v Speaker 1>that based on all the bowling and I saw some

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<v Speaker 1>of the other days what not, like eighties and ninety

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<v Speaker 1>percentile approval for continuing to support the Ukrainians, that they

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<v Speaker 1>aren't they in Europe, Yeah, that they aren't going to cave. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>sunny Spain and Portugal, in the south of France, they

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<v Speaker 1>need to take refugees from northern Europe at least for

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<v Speaker 1>the wintertime. A bunch of fat, pale Germans stretched out

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<v Speaker 1>on the beach there in Portugal, for instance, just just

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<v Speaker 1>to help out. I just think that could be a

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<v Speaker 1>big deal. I think I think Putin is counting on

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<v Speaker 1>here winners coming. That's when they cave, that's when they

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<v Speaker 1>all turn against it. And uh and I get my

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<v Speaker 1>big advantage. And if, if, if Europe survives the winter

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<v Speaker 1>with the population still being supportive of the war in Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 1>I think Putin's gonna have a long spring and summer. Yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it could be. Well, Germany give him those tanks. What

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<v Speaker 1>is this? What is your story? Germany? So weak, big

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<v Speaker 1>promises and no delivery. Uh, Barre strong and Jetty