1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:07,520 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 3 00:00:07,600 --> 00:00:10,280 Speaker 1: I Heart Radio app, and the Bloomberg Business App. We're 4 00:00:10,320 --> 00:00:14,120 Speaker 1: listening on demand wherever you get your podcast. The big 5 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,280 Speaker 1: meeting is behind us. You saw it unfold yesterday if 6 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:19,160 Speaker 1: you were with us on Bloomberg. The Speaker of the House, 7 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:23,599 Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy leading a bipartisan delegation to California. Beautiful setting 8 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 1: at the Reagan Library as he met with President Say 9 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:32,879 Speaker 1: of Taiwan, with Democrats and Republicans behind him, Not to 10 00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:37,560 Speaker 1: mention Ronald Reagan's old Air Force one and a so 11 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: far muted response from China. As we told you a 12 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 1: carrier battle group had entered the southeastern waters of Taiwan 13 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:48,720 Speaker 1: midday yesterday. We haven't seen much since then. This is 14 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:52,919 Speaker 1: McCarthy talked to Bloomberg's and Marie Hordern out in California. 15 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:55,040 Speaker 1: Didn't sound very worried about it anyway. What China needs 16 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: to understand is they can't dictate who a speaker the 17 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 1: House can meet with, baby, foe or friend. For the 18 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 1: same moment that McCrone sitting down with President, she I 19 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:06,680 Speaker 1: think that's great. I would sit down with President the 20 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:09,479 Speaker 1: message echoed, well, maybe not so much the latter by 21 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 1: Karine Jean Pierre, the White House Press Secretary on Taiwan, 22 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 1: leading to further escalation. It is an unofficial visit, it 23 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:21,680 Speaker 1: is a private visit, and it should not be used 24 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: for any kind of escalation overreaction, and we've been very 25 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 1: clear about that. Curious to hear the thoughts of Kurt Tong, 26 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 1: former US Ambassador for Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation. Ambassador, It's 27 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 1: great to have you with us here on Bloomberg. Did 28 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy do damage to the relationship between Washington and Beijing, 29 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:43,039 Speaker 1: or in fact give the US a stronger hand in 30 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 1: dealing with China. I think probably neither is true. As 31 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 1: as characterized by the Biden administration fairly accurately, the final 32 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 1: shape of the visit of President so I was relatively 33 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: routine um and therefore is so far at least engendering 34 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 1: a smaller reaction from China than than Nancy Closi's um 35 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 1: more entire profile visit last year. On the other hand, 36 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 1: there wasn't really that much substantive forward motion in the 37 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 1: US Taiwan relationship is mostly symbolic, so that symbolism is important, 38 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:33,239 Speaker 1: and in particular, I thought your report was very wise 39 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 1: and pointing out that this was very much a bipartisan 40 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:41,359 Speaker 1: embrace of the of the president of President's I yeah, yeah, 41 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 1: we heard from Pete Agrilar, We heard from Seth Moulton 42 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:47,920 Speaker 1: in California yesterday, and now another delegation led by a 43 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:51,920 Speaker 1: Foreign Affairs Committee cheer Michael McCall a touching down in 44 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:56,399 Speaker 1: Taiwan to talk about regional security and trade. The more 45 00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 1: of this travel takes place, Ambassador, does it mean last, 46 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 1: I mean, can we create some normalcy here following the 47 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 1: big dust up over Nancy Pelosi's trip. Well, I think 48 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:10,240 Speaker 1: that's the hope of the of the US administration is 49 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:16,680 Speaker 1: that by both having regular contacts within the existing agreed 50 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 1: upon rules with China for the handling of the relationship, 51 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 1: and having them regularly and substantively, but not going out 52 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 1: of the way to provoke China symbolically, that this can 53 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 1: be normalized and that when, for example, the US next 54 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 1: announces another arms sales to Taiwan, it doesn't raise a 55 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 1: whole lot of alarm bells in China or precipitate a 56 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 1: major response. What I think has been a bit missing 57 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 1: so far has been really concerted action by the United 58 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 1: States to give Taiwan a leg up in its foreign 59 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 1: economic relations is the Thaiwan has been isolated on the 60 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 1: diplomatic stage, and it makes it difficult for them to 61 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 1: have trade agreements and reach deeper economic relations with other countries. 62 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 1: And over the long run, in order to sustain their 63 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 1: stance of deciding their own future visa via China, they 64 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:24,480 Speaker 1: need to have a strong economy there as well. Does 65 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 1: that delegation here with Chairman McCall's codell help in that 66 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 1: direction that is on the agenda. We also know that 67 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 1: the Governor of Virginia is going to be making his way. 68 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 1: They're on a trade mission soon as well. In some ways, 69 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: the governor's visit may be more important if he actually 70 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:48,239 Speaker 1: discusses the promotion of specific investment deals in either direction 71 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:51,280 Speaker 1: between the US and Taiwan. That could active lead to 72 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 1: and similar visits by other governors can lead to a 73 00:04:54,760 --> 00:05:01,280 Speaker 1: real strengthening of the economic relationship. You mentioned weapons for Taiwan. 74 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy yesterday not only referred to the One China Policy, 75 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 1: but the six Assurances which we don't hear about a lot. 76 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 1: This goes back to the Reagan administration, which says we 77 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 1: do not set a date certain for ending arms sales 78 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:15,960 Speaker 1: to Taiwan. Here's what the speaker said. I remember coming 79 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 1: back from Ukraine in twenty fifteen and advocating to sell 80 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 1: them javelins. Javelins a defensive weapon to stop the tanks 81 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,359 Speaker 1: from coming in. And maybe had that action been taken 82 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 1: or others, Russia would not have felt that that was 83 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 1: a mode for them to go through. In thousands of 84 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,839 Speaker 1: live would have been saved. And I think this is 85 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 1: no difference than what the Six Assurances have said from Reagan, 86 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 1: that we would supply Taiwan with weapons, and we are 87 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 1: ambassador to the Six Assurances still live in the minds 88 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 1: of Chinese leaders, I think so. I think they're recognized 89 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 1: by both leaders in Beijing and leaders in Taibei, and 90 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 1: they both realise that this means a pledge by the 91 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 1: United States to ensure and this is also in the 92 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 1: Taiwan Relations Act, to ensure that Taiwan has the means 93 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 1: to maintain the status quo in the relationship between Taiwan 94 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:20,839 Speaker 1: and China, and so as China builds up its military capabilities. 95 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:24,400 Speaker 1: Taiwan needs to do so as well in order to 96 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 1: maintain a credible deterrent. And that's a that's a very 97 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:30,279 Speaker 1: important role, in almost a unique role for the United 98 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 1: States in supporting Taiwan in that regard. Enter Emmanuel Macron, 99 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: the French president, is in Beijing meeting with Jiji and 100 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 1: Ping to talk more about Ukraine, I think than anything, 101 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:47,840 Speaker 1: but there were questions about whether that was an appropriate 102 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 1: move for him to make. Does it help to have 103 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 1: Western leaders not only visiting Taiwan but also Beijing. I 104 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 1: think it does, and I think we'll see in the 105 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:04,119 Speaker 1: coming months a resumption of direct conversations and contact between 106 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 1: the US government and in the PRC government in Beijing. 107 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 1: That the it's important to have conversations in all directions, 108 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 1: and it's entirely legitimate thing for the French leader and 109 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 1: also for the EU leader to be going to China 110 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 1: and negotiating asserting their economic and security interests fees to 111 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 1: be China. As you said, China stands on Ukraine being 112 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 1: perhaps the top agenda item, but certainly the trade imbalance 113 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 1: between the EU and China was also very high on 114 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 1: the agenda. Uh and and France was pushing that hard 115 00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 1: as well. People try to make parallels, to drop parallels 116 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 1: between Taiwan and Ukraine and suggest that she is watching 117 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 1: what happens in Ukraine to make his own sort of 118 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,120 Speaker 1: train of thought about what to do with Taiwan and 119 00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 1: exactly how the US handles this moment. Do you agree 120 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 1: with that? Well, there are some some similarities in the 121 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 1: sense that a large power Russia in this case UM 122 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 1: unilaterally attacked as a smaller power that it claims does 123 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 1: not have a legitimate right to be separate and follows 124 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: its own foreign policy, etc. That's that's about where the 125 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:34,840 Speaker 1: parallels stop. UM. You know, the Taiwan situation, it's different geographically, 126 00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:39,079 Speaker 1: with a being an island with a large separation of water. Um. 127 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:43,959 Speaker 1: The Taiwan military has been preparing for for decades and 128 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:48,120 Speaker 1: to be able to defend itself, and there's there's frankly, 129 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:54,560 Speaker 1: a more explicit relationship between Taiwan and the United States 130 00:08:54,720 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: then was the case of Ukraine, because Ukraine's membership NATO 131 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 1: was not you know, had not happened, still hasn't happened, 132 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 1: so that there are there are some significant differences. Also, 133 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:11,360 Speaker 1: I would point to the fact that China is sort 134 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 1: of a hopeful, growth oriented player in the global economy 135 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 1: and global society. So China in a sense has a 136 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 1: lot more to lose by angering the rest of the 137 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 1: planet um with a with a regional war. Then it 138 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:33,080 Speaker 1: was a case with Russia where Russia as a sort 139 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:39,079 Speaker 1: of monochromatic economy where exports natural resources and and people 140 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 1: end up buying those regardless of of of what of 141 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 1: what they do in foreign policy, and I think that 142 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 1: would not be true in the case of China, and 143 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:51,959 Speaker 1: China would find if it was isolated on the global 144 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:58,200 Speaker 1: stage that could really seriously undermine its national objectives. We're 145 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 1: talking with Kurt Tong, former US and BASS that are 146 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:04,760 Speaker 1: for Asia Pacific Economic Corporation here cooperation here on Bloomberg Radio. 147 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:08,680 Speaker 1: The response from China we thought we were in for 148 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:14,359 Speaker 1: yesterday when we saw the battle carrier group enter southeastern 149 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 1: waters around Taiwan. There hasn't been much since then. Bloomberg 150 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 1: News is writing it as a muted response as China 151 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 1: has a lot of things to worry about right now. Ambassadors, 152 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:30,960 Speaker 1: this is all we're going to get probably as my response, 153 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: I think it's a little early to say conclusively that 154 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 1: this is this is the sum total of what we're 155 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 1: going to see. And there has been reports that China 156 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 1: might be trying some new countermeasures in terms of boarding 157 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:51,960 Speaker 1: and inspecting shipping between different points between Taiwan and China 158 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:55,280 Speaker 1: on the straight side of the island as well. That's 159 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:58,079 Speaker 1: a that's a new development needs to be looked at 160 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 1: closely in terms of what it means and how important 161 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:05,200 Speaker 1: it is. I think I think China is trying to 162 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:09,640 Speaker 1: walk up a fine line here where if they overdo 163 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:16,839 Speaker 1: it and are perceived on Taiwan as drastically overreacting, that 164 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 1: that could actually hurt China's ambitions to have a political 165 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:27,360 Speaker 1: landscape in Taiwan which is less fiercely opposed to the 166 00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 1: PRCAT and so um. There's a lot of different factors 167 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: involved in tempering China's response. The Chinese invasion of Taiwan inevitable, 168 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think I think with a 169 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 1: proper balance of deterrence and assurance that neither Taiwan nor 170 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:55,920 Speaker 1: the United States are trying to unilaterally change the status 171 00:11:56,000 --> 00:12:00,880 Speaker 1: quo across the straits, combined with with is a meaningful 172 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 1: and credible deterrent that then we can continue to have 173 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 1: this problem on for decades to come, and you know, 174 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:14,680 Speaker 1: and then at some point there maybe things will change 175 00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 1: in China and the people on Taiwan will have a 176 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:20,200 Speaker 1: different view of China and things will there will be 177 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 1: a different landscape. I think in the current situation, the 178 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:26,960 Speaker 1: best the best outcome is is is no no outcome. 179 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:30,720 Speaker 1: There's no change. Ambassador. I'm glad you could come talk 180 00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 1: to us today. Kurt Tong, former US Ambassador for Asia 181 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:35,640 Speaker 1: Pacific Economic Cooperation, getting us started to hear on Bloomberg 182 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 1: Sound On. I love to take a quick pass here 183 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 1: with the panel before we dig into this in more 184 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:44,360 Speaker 1: concerted fashion this hour. Rick Davis and Jeanie Schanzano are 185 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 1: here a Bloomberg Politics contributors, having seen this unfold last evening, 186 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:53,200 Speaker 1: our interview with Kevin McCarthy following the meeting Rick Davis, 187 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:57,319 Speaker 1: and now of course this new delegation that we're seeing 188 00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 1: touchdown in Taiwan with Foreign Affairs Committee Chyeer Michael McCall. 189 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 1: It seems the more we talk, the less China has 190 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:08,720 Speaker 1: to say about it. I mean, how many times can 191 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 1: you gas up an entire aircraft carrier group to make 192 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 1: a stink when a US lawmaker wants to visit Taiwan, 193 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,200 Speaker 1: you see it that way. Absolutely. I thought Investor Tongue 194 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:21,319 Speaker 1: made a really good point that China has to actually 195 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 1: also be aware of the politics on Taiwan. Uh. They have, 196 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 1: you know, the KMT leader in their country right now 197 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 1: trying to elevate their political chances of winning a presidential 198 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 1: race next year in Taiwan. The last thing they want 199 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 1: to do is is overplay their hand and have a 200 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: negative reaction. You know, even though umu, when when they 201 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:50,720 Speaker 1: talk about China being um the same population as as 202 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:56,240 Speaker 1: Taiwan all descendative um you know, the same families. The 203 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 1: reality is Taiwanese see themselves sixty percent in last poles 204 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:03,840 Speaker 1: I've seen as Taiwanese first, in Chinese second. So there 205 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 1: is a lot of politics on the mainland that may 206 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 1: or on the island that may be directing some of 207 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 1: China's reticence to overheat this situation. Just keep showing up, Genie. 208 00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:17,720 Speaker 1: It starts to mean less each time, right. Well, that's true, 209 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 1: And I have to say I give Kevin McCarthy a 210 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:22,560 Speaker 1: lot of credit for them meeting yesterday. I did not 211 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,760 Speaker 1: go into this as you know, feeling optimistic. But I 212 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 1: thought he handled it well. And of course you covered 213 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 1: this last night. It was bipartisan, it was restrained. I mean, 214 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 1: we knew it was on us soil. The fact that 215 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:36,360 Speaker 1: they didn't do a press that they did a press conference, 216 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 1: not a speech, So there were good elements and I 217 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 1: give them credit for that. You're listening to The Bloomberg 218 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 1: Sound On podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one 219 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 1: Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, 220 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 1: and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live 221 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 222 00:14:56,240 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. Speaker McCarthy said it 223 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 1: in no on certain terms yesterday. I am the Speaker 224 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:09,560 Speaker 1: of the House. There's no place that China is going 225 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 1: to tell me and where I can go or who 226 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 1: I can speak to, whether you be foe or whether 227 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:16,960 Speaker 1: you be friend. I'm not the general manager of the 228 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 1: Houston Rockets. And the one thing I hope all countries 229 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 1: see is that we're united in the same approach together 230 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 1: on both sides, and we're going to speak with one 231 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 1: voice when it comes to China. Or any others when 232 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 1: we look at foreign policy. Speaking from the Reagan Library yesterday, 233 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 1: seem Valley, California, after his meeting with presidents say, I'm Joe, 234 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 1: Matthew and Washington. Let's reassemble the panel with Rick Davis 235 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 1: and Jeannie Schanzano Genie China. Restraint on Taiwan is the 236 00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 1: headline on the terminal today. The response muted. They say, 237 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 1: remembering what happened after Nancy Pelosi's visit, is there more 238 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 1: to come here or is the bluster already over? You know, 239 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 1: I hope the bluster is over, but you know the ambassador, 240 00:15:57,760 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 1: I think he said in your conversation, and he issued 241 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 1: a word of caution there could be more to come. 242 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 1: But I do think part of the reason we're seeing 243 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 1: restraint is not only because McCarthy and the President of 244 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 1: Taiwan showed it on this end, but also because of 245 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 1: the diplomatic visit. Somebody described this as sort of a 246 00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 1: diplomatic terror that Jiji and Ping is on, or a 247 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:20,920 Speaker 1: traffic jam over there. In the last few weeks, we've 248 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 1: had Germany, Spain, Brazil. I mean, the list goes on 249 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 1: and on. You talked about France, you know, Iran and 250 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia foreign ministers shaking hands. That's historic. So I 251 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:33,320 Speaker 1: think part of the restraint may be related to the 252 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 1: fact that Jiji and Ping doesn't want to upstage his 253 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 1: own soft diplomacy and the work he's doing in that 254 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 1: regard that's critically important for his prestige both at home 255 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:45,560 Speaker 1: and around the world. So that may be what's happening, 256 00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 1: And perhaps as those visits start to die down, we 257 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 1: do see them respond, But I certainly hope not, because 258 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:54,640 Speaker 1: I think McCarthy and Si did show a good deal 259 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 1: of restraint on this end. He did take a little 260 00:16:57,040 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: swipe at the Houston Rockets GM, but besides that, it 261 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:02,280 Speaker 1: was a strained meeting. Well it was, and I don't 262 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:04,119 Speaker 1: know if maybe China thought more was going to come 263 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:06,359 Speaker 1: of this rick, maybe they were waiting for the invitation 264 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:09,479 Speaker 1: for Kevin McCarthy to go to Taiwan. But but this 265 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:11,960 Speaker 1: is a far cry from what we saw last year 266 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:15,440 Speaker 1: when Nancy Pelosi touchdown. Well, I do think the distinction 267 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 1: has merit right, Nancy Pelosi went to Taiwan, that was 268 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 1: a historic event. It is much more in your face. 269 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 1: These transit meetings have been going on for as long 270 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:32,640 Speaker 1: as anybody can remember, and so really should be dealt 271 00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 1: with in a very routine basis. And kudos to the 272 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:38,119 Speaker 1: speaker McCarthy for saying, nobody tells a speaker of the 273 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,399 Speaker 1: United States who we can meet with and who we 274 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 1: can't meet. But could you imagine, you know, if we 275 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:45,639 Speaker 1: had said to President Shee, hey, you can't meet with 276 00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:50,120 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin, that's outrageous. We're gonna take a carrier group 277 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:52,359 Speaker 1: and put it into the Black Sea. I mean, it 278 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:56,159 Speaker 1: would be outrageous. And so the the moral equivalency that 279 00:17:56,359 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 1: China shows to people meddling in their backyard isn't respect 280 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 1: acted by those when they meddle in ours. Let's talk 281 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:06,960 Speaker 1: a little bit more about the French president his visits today, 282 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 1: all the trappings of a state visit with the full 283 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 1: arrival ceremony, and Kevin McCarthy talked about that as well, 284 00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:17,159 Speaker 1: by the way, because there might have been some concern, 285 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:20,000 Speaker 1: all geez, what's he doing over there? They're talking about Ukraine? 286 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:22,720 Speaker 1: But is this from Star Wars? By the way, where 287 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:24,720 Speaker 1: do they get this stuff? Here's Kevin mc don't think 288 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:29,080 Speaker 1: what mccrone's doing is conflicting here from the same point 289 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 1: that I tell China they cannot tell me who I 290 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,560 Speaker 1: can meet with for the same argument that I said, 291 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 1: this meeting will foster greater freedoms. Right, it's communication. So 292 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 1: I think it's great that McCrone is meeting in China. 293 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 1: I hope he delivers a message not to fond Russia's 294 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:52,439 Speaker 1: war in Ukraine. I hope he delivers a message that 295 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:56,440 Speaker 1: democracy makes the world safer and stronger. Rick, is that 296 00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:58,960 Speaker 1: the message that McCrone is delivering. Oh yeah, you know 297 00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 1: this is going to be about Ukraine. This is not 298 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:04,199 Speaker 1: about the South China Sea. And what I thought was 299 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 1: really impressive is the EU China Ambassador Fu Kong issued 300 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 1: a statement in advance of the visit by Makron saying, hey, 301 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:16,359 Speaker 1: we weren't for this war, and all this stuff about 302 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:19,680 Speaker 1: no limit with friendships, you know, between China and Russia 303 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:22,920 Speaker 1: is just rhetoric. So it's the first time I've seen 304 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:28,159 Speaker 1: China actually back off completely from where Putin was hoping 305 00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:32,679 Speaker 1: he could position his relationship with Beijing. So I actually 306 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:36,200 Speaker 1: think it's resulting in a really good outcome so far, 307 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 1: by China signaling to Europe that they're not going into Ukraine. Well, 308 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:43,640 Speaker 1: as we hear though from mcron, I know I can 309 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 1: count on you. He says, Jeanie through an interpreter, to 310 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 1: bring Russia back to reason and everybody to the negotiating table. 311 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,919 Speaker 1: He's urging President she to help start negotiations. Is he 312 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:57,680 Speaker 1: a trusted actor in that role, Well, you know, he's 313 00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:02,919 Speaker 1: probably Besides, Moodie is probably the only person, or maybe 314 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:05,399 Speaker 1: one of the few. I shouldn't say only world leaders 315 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:08,120 Speaker 1: who do not have a three day vacation to Moscow, though, 316 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:10,919 Speaker 1: that's right, And you know that means that they have, 317 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 1: in Kevin McCarthy's words, a communication going. But that said, 318 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,880 Speaker 1: I don't think that even Jiji and Ping is going 319 00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,560 Speaker 1: to be able to convince Vladimir Putin of anything as 320 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:22,439 Speaker 1: it regards the war in Ukraine. But McCrone does have 321 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 1: six hours alone with Gee, which is quite an awful lot. 322 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,679 Speaker 1: He's gonna try to use it to make this case, 323 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:30,920 Speaker 1: and you know, I hope he is able to make 324 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:32,919 Speaker 1: it successfully. But I don't think we can hold our 325 00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:34,640 Speaker 1: breath that we're going to see Jiji and Ping get 326 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 1: Putin to back off on the war. But you know, 327 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:39,720 Speaker 1: I just want to go back to McCarthy for one second. 328 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:42,679 Speaker 1: I think his argument there is dead on when he 329 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:46,280 Speaker 1: talks about the fact communication is critical, and you know 330 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 1: when Biden talks about we want to compete, not conflict. 331 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:51,760 Speaker 1: And this is where I have been a little bit 332 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 1: concerned with the rhetoric out of Washington, And this is 333 00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:57,960 Speaker 1: why I'm hopeful about yesterday, because the rhetoric has been really, 334 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 1: really tough on both Jiji and Ping and China. And 335 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 1: that would be fine, except we have a world economy 336 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,960 Speaker 1: and a business community and we depend on China to 337 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,160 Speaker 1: be able to work with them in a number of areas. 338 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 1: So I think we've got to have that communication he 339 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:15,480 Speaker 1: talks about, and it can't be all, you know, hardcore 340 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 1: negative on China and Jiji and Ping, because it's going 341 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 1: to impact our ability to have those important conversations. What 342 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,520 Speaker 1: are your thoughts on President She bringing people with the 343 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:26,359 Speaker 1: table here, Rick, I mean they did put forth the 344 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:30,720 Speaker 1: piece plan already. It was immediately rejected by the US, 345 00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 1: certainly by Ukraine, because it would it would call for 346 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,439 Speaker 1: Ukraine to give up big chunks of its country. It 347 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,359 Speaker 1: would essentially hand victory to Russia, wouldn't it. Yeah, that's right. 348 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 1: I mean, nobody's taken the Chinese initiative seriously, but it's 349 00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:47,159 Speaker 1: worth mccron's time to see if he can move that 350 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 1: communication opening, like Jeanie said, you know, into something more productive. 351 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: You know that that piece plan was dead on arrival. 352 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 1: You notice he didn't even push it very hard when 353 00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:01,160 Speaker 1: he was in Moscow. But the bottom line is the 354 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:03,359 Speaker 1: thing you have to remember too, is there the ones 355 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 1: not answering the phone. You know, after the Chinese spy 356 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 1: balloon incident, we called them, they didn't pick up. I 357 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: think there's been an effort, you know, by both sides 358 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:16,119 Speaker 1: to try and chill this relationship. But the reality is, 359 00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:20,920 Speaker 1: I think once we get through Presidency's size visit, you 360 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:24,440 Speaker 1: probably will see as as Ambassador Kirk Thong said earlier, 361 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 1: a renewed opening of communications with the US administration has 362 00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 1: been pretty quiet Jeanie, other than you know, saying that 363 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 1: this is not an escalation and so forth, When does 364 00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:39,800 Speaker 1: President Biden get back to the table with President she 365 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:43,040 Speaker 1: will that meeting happened anytime soon. I certainly hope it doesn't. 366 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:45,159 Speaker 1: I think it's got to start with Anthony Blincoln. As 367 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 1: Rick just mentioned. I mean, it was really troubling when 368 00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:52,159 Speaker 1: they didn't answer the phone about the balloon, and that, 369 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 1: you know, sort of chilling of a relationship at that 370 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,399 Speaker 1: high level is really problematic. I did not think he 371 00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 1: should have canceled his visit. So I hope Blinkin gets 372 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 1: over there and has his visit, or they make arrangements 373 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 1: elsewhere for a visit. And then certainly Biden has got 374 00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 1: to begin a more than an hour conversation every six 375 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,159 Speaker 1: months with JJ and Ping. You know, they can't only 376 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,840 Speaker 1: be talking to John Williams because to your point, by 377 00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:17,880 Speaker 1: the way, I did think that was John Williams music 378 00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,679 Speaker 1: that they were playing over there, so I thought the 379 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,439 Speaker 1: same thing Joe Matthew. But you know, they've got to 380 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,280 Speaker 1: be talking at the highest levels. That's critically important, and 381 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:28,960 Speaker 1: hopefully I do. Though by the way, I also agree 382 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,879 Speaker 1: the Biden administration was smart to keep out of this visit. 383 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 1: This was a transit, it was an official visit. She 384 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:36,879 Speaker 1: should not have been talking to the Biden administration, and 385 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 1: she didn't, and that was a very important point, and 386 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,200 Speaker 1: it helped to tamp down and you know, I think 387 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 1: helped lead to this restrained response from China, and that 388 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:46,879 Speaker 1: would have made it officials. Certainly, Rick what should be 389 00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:50,040 Speaker 1: the conditions if we can even call them that for 390 00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,280 Speaker 1: even just a remote meeting for President Biden to get 391 00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 1: on the phone again with President She. You know, I 392 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:56,080 Speaker 1: don't think it has to be conditions based. You know, 393 00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:59,680 Speaker 1: there's routine contact and it doesn't have to be a 394 00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,119 Speaker 1: sub It can be on the sidelines of you know, 395 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 1: a G eight meeting or something like that. So I think, 396 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:08,000 Speaker 1: and it's almost better not to elevate it too high, right, 397 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:12,120 Speaker 1: not to make it difficult for both teams to position, 398 00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,080 Speaker 1: you know, an icebreaker like this, but it does need 399 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:18,560 Speaker 1: to happen, should happen soon, and it's not going to 400 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,399 Speaker 1: make it any easier the longer it goes. So I 401 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,679 Speaker 1: think all parties at the same time are probably thinking, 402 00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:26,480 Speaker 1: you know, we've got to sort of get back into 403 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:31,920 Speaker 1: the routine of regular contact, not just at the presidency level, 404 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 1: but you know with the other staffs that normally would 405 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,479 Speaker 1: have regular daily contact on issues that are that are 406 00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 1: really important to both countries. Rick Davis and Gene Schanzano 407 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:45,080 Speaker 1: bring the analysis here just about every day certainly was 408 00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:47,119 Speaker 1: the case the short and week here on Bloomberg Sound On. 409 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,760 Speaker 1: I thank you both for being part of this in 410 00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:52,919 Speaker 1: our signature panel here on the fastest show in politics. 411 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 412 00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:00,119 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 413 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,760 Speaker 1: I Heard Radio app, and the Bloomberg Business App. We're 414 00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:06,960 Speaker 1: listening on demand wherever you get your podcast. I'm Joe, 415 00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:09,359 Speaker 1: Matthew and Washington joined by Kaylee Lions. We've got a 416 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,280 Speaker 1: busy hour underway here. It's good to see you, by 417 00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:13,480 Speaker 1: the way. Nice to have another person in this room 418 00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:15,199 Speaker 1: because there's a lot of stuff going on and it 419 00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 1: brings us in a moment to the White House. The 420 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,679 Speaker 1: After Action Report on Afghanistan has just dropped their briefing 421 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:23,399 Speaker 1: on that. We're going to get to that coming up 422 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,480 Speaker 1: once we have our ducks in a row here in 423 00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 1: a conversation that we will have I'm sure with someone important. 424 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,040 Speaker 1: How are you? Yes? With Alex Zurdon. He's the former 425 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:36,239 Speaker 1: Treasury Atache in Afghanistan. So it's a great voice on 426 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:39,920 Speaker 1: that document, you know, I just control ft on PDF. Yes, 427 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 1: Trump mentioned thirteen times, and then one additional time Trump's 428 00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:46,959 Speaker 1: was mentioned. A lot of blame being cast at President 429 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 1: Biden's predecessors. That'll give you a sense of what is 430 00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:52,080 Speaker 1: to come. But first we want to talk about Wisconsin. Yes, 431 00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:54,640 Speaker 1: we kind of touched on it yesterday, but it really 432 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,199 Speaker 1: it's just been overshadowed by all the Trump madness this 433 00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:59,120 Speaker 1: week and every I mean, my goodness, it's hard to 434 00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:02,720 Speaker 1: get any oxygen in the world of the first presidential indictment. 435 00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,160 Speaker 1: But a big shake up in the Wisconsin Supreme Court, 436 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:09,240 Speaker 1: Liberal Judge Janet prot to say, wits be conservative Daniel Kelly, 437 00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:12,280 Speaker 1: which rebalances the court that had leaned conservative. And there 438 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,639 Speaker 1: are major implications here, not only for Wisconsin, but for 439 00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:20,719 Speaker 1: the nation. The speeches that night were pretty classic, yeah, 440 00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,800 Speaker 1: to say it's new, going for sort of the standard approach. 441 00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,639 Speaker 1: So finally, to the people of this beautiful state of Wisconsin, 442 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:31,840 Speaker 1: I thank you. Yeah, it's pretty pretty normal victory speech. 443 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:37,200 Speaker 1: People feeling good about today's results mean two very important 444 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:41,840 Speaker 1: and special things. First, it means that Wisconsin voters have 445 00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:47,800 Speaker 1: made their voices heard. Yes, okay, now the contrast here 446 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,000 Speaker 1: and she goes on to talk about, you know, the 447 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 1: reasons why, but Daniel Kelly different approach. This has been beautiful, 448 00:26:54,560 --> 00:27:00,119 Speaker 1: beautiful light here at Wisconsin with all of you. I 449 00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,919 Speaker 1: wish Wisconsin the best of luck. Okay, because I think 450 00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:07,159 Speaker 1: it's gonna need it. Oh wait, that was it. Actually, 451 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,560 Speaker 1: that was the best part of the concession speech was 452 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 1: a CONCESSI was not as this up, and it brings 453 00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 1: me no joy to say this. I wish that in 454 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:23,360 Speaker 1: a circumstance like this, I would be able to concede 455 00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:29,080 Speaker 1: to a worthy opponent. Wow, But I do not have 456 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:33,240 Speaker 1: a worthy opponent to which I can concede. Wow. All right, 457 00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:41,800 Speaker 1: this was the most deeply deceitful, dishonorable, despicable campaign I 458 00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:47,240 Speaker 1: have ever seen run for the courts. Okay, yes, it 459 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,400 Speaker 1: was truly beneath contempt. So beneath contempt. Now I could 460 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,400 Speaker 1: keep going here this one on for some time, Kaylee, 461 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,640 Speaker 1: But no not. I guess that would not be a concessions. Yeah, 462 00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:58,439 Speaker 1: I don't think we can call it one. Clearly a 463 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,920 Speaker 1: very contentious race and for one party, the losing party, 464 00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,199 Speaker 1: a contentious result. But really what it came down to, 465 00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,880 Speaker 1: it seems in Wisconsin was one issue in particular, because 466 00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:15,359 Speaker 1: which ran on abortion, essentially on pro abortion policies, and 467 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:17,600 Speaker 1: that's really what the sea comes down to and why 468 00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,879 Speaker 1: what happened in Wisconsin in theory could be resonating all 469 00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:22,639 Speaker 1: across the country. Well, we get to talk about this 470 00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,320 Speaker 1: with Ryan Tekbeckwi, who has been covering this and is 471 00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,760 Speaker 1: with us in studio. Ryan, great to see you. Yeah, 472 00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,800 Speaker 1: what was that all about. I mean that there was 473 00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:34,119 Speaker 1: some real anger in that. You know, he took a 474 00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:37,160 Speaker 1: lot of exception to the ads in which she said 475 00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:41,320 Speaker 1: that he would rule against abortion. And the context here 476 00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,560 Speaker 1: is that there have been no abortions in Wisconsin since 477 00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,920 Speaker 1: roversus Wade was overturned because of an eighteen forty nine 478 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,400 Speaker 1: law that immediately went back into place, which is being 479 00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:53,320 Speaker 1: contested in the courts, and it was an issue in 480 00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:55,760 Speaker 1: the governor's race, it was an issue in attorney general's race. 481 00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:59,920 Speaker 1: The Democratic governor and Democratic Attorney general are fighting it 482 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:03,320 Speaker 1: in court right now, and basically the winner of this 483 00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,160 Speaker 1: race was going to determine whether Democrats or Republicans have 484 00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:10,920 Speaker 1: a majority on the court and Protewit's essentially said, you know, 485 00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,800 Speaker 1: give us a majority and will overturn this law. In 486 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:17,520 Speaker 1: so many words, I mean, she's running as addicial candidate. 487 00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:19,520 Speaker 1: There's only they can't come right out and say how 488 00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:21,960 Speaker 1: they'll rule. But she's running at saying I believe that 489 00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:25,360 Speaker 1: women have the right to make a choice. On the 490 00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:27,600 Speaker 1: other side, Dan Kelly, who has done work for their 491 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,240 Speaker 1: state Republican Party and had done work for anti abortion 492 00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:34,160 Speaker 1: groups in the past, was very coy about like, you 493 00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:36,200 Speaker 1: don't know what I would do. I won't say what 494 00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:40,160 Speaker 1: I would do. But anti abortion groups were advocating for him, 495 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 1: were doing grass words work for him and endorsing him. 496 00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:46,360 Speaker 1: So it was pretty clear. But it was also clear 497 00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:50,960 Speaker 1: that like only the abortion rights side of the argument 498 00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:54,560 Speaker 1: wanted to talk about abortion, the other side did not. Yeah, 499 00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 1: and of course we're talking specifically about how it affects 500 00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:00,520 Speaker 1: Wisconsin here, but in theory, the eyes, especially if Republicans 501 00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 1: all across the country are on what happened here and 502 00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,400 Speaker 1: considering it in the aftermath. Both Joe and I this 503 00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:08,040 Speaker 1: morning came into the office and we were like, did 504 00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,680 Speaker 1: you see the Wall Street Journal op ed talked about 505 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:14,160 Speaker 1: a five alarm warning to Republicans in twenty twenty four 506 00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:15,920 Speaker 1: because of what happened in the Badger or state. The 507 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,960 Speaker 1: quote is Republicans had better get their abortion position street 508 00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,600 Speaker 1: and more in line with where voters are, or they 509 00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,680 Speaker 1: will face another disappointment. In twenty twenty four is the 510 00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,560 Speaker 1: initial reaction we are seeing from the Republican party suggests 511 00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:33,560 Speaker 1: that they agree. You know, I think in private, a 512 00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:35,720 Speaker 1: lot of Republicans would tell you that this is a 513 00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:39,320 Speaker 1: damaging issue for them. I do think that Republicans are 514 00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:43,200 Speaker 1: able to win when it's not as central. I mean, 515 00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:48,000 Speaker 1: there's the fact that this was the seat that would 516 00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:51,000 Speaker 1: determine the majority that would rule on whether this law 517 00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:53,440 Speaker 1: could be upheld. And this is basically the only pathway 518 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:57,360 Speaker 1: for abortion rights supporters in Wisconsin. Because the legislatures heavily 519 00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:01,800 Speaker 1: jerrymandered and controlled by Republicans who actually now have a supermajority. 520 00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,360 Speaker 1: Because there was a special election on the same ballot 521 00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:07,600 Speaker 1: in which they won a key race, there was no 522 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,600 Speaker 1: way to legislatively get around this. It was gonna come 523 00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:12,920 Speaker 1: down to the court. So so what this showed for 524 00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,120 Speaker 1: abortion rights supporters is that when they can make it 525 00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,840 Speaker 1: a defining issue in a race, then then it's a 526 00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,320 Speaker 1: slam dunk for them. I mean, she won by ten points. 527 00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:25,520 Speaker 1: That was just devastating to the Republican candidate. Republican back Canada. 528 00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:27,800 Speaker 1: I should say officially it's nonpartisan, but it's kind of 529 00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:31,280 Speaker 1: like a wink and a nod. Everyone knows, uh, So 530 00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:33,240 Speaker 1: this was this was it was just a loser of 531 00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:36,000 Speaker 1: an issue for him. She hammered him with it. They 532 00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:39,000 Speaker 1: they Democratic Party gave her millions of dollars to hammer 533 00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:42,760 Speaker 1: him on it, and and he just couldn't change the subject. 534 00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:46,160 Speaker 1: Now they did. Republicans did win a Senate race in 535 00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:50,160 Speaker 1: November in that same state, and I think largely because 536 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:54,000 Speaker 1: abortion just wasn't as central to that race because they 537 00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:57,080 Speaker 1: you know, you could vote for a Senate and know 538 00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:58,760 Speaker 1: that it wasn't going to really make a difference in 539 00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,400 Speaker 1: the same way. So I think the governor's races and 540 00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,440 Speaker 1: in this case the Supreme Court race where is where 541 00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:06,840 Speaker 1: it really is helping them. But that doesn't mean that 542 00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,600 Speaker 1: they that Republicans can't win, but they have to find 543 00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:11,520 Speaker 1: some way to make that not the central issue. Well, 544 00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,560 Speaker 1: when you factored this in, you look at what happened 545 00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:18,200 Speaker 1: in Michigan, Kansas, the midterms at large. To your point, 546 00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:22,040 Speaker 1: we can quantify this one. Can Republicans actually sort of 547 00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,800 Speaker 1: connect the dots between all of these races to formulate 548 00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,720 Speaker 1: a strategy for twenty four How does the GOP talk 549 00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:30,280 Speaker 1: about this in a way that can appeal to a 550 00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:33,360 Speaker 1: mainstream voter base. Well, I mean, the problem is you 551 00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,160 Speaker 1: have to get through Republican primary first, and in a 552 00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:42,680 Speaker 1: Republican primary right now, it's still not yet. Voters are 553 00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:46,400 Speaker 1: still going to reward the person with the strongest anti 554 00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:49,200 Speaker 1: abortion credentials that can't exactly pivot to the center after that. 555 00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:51,760 Speaker 1: It's very hard to etch a sketch. And I think 556 00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:54,400 Speaker 1: like what Dan Kelly was trying to do in Wisconsin 557 00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:57,240 Speaker 1: was was say, look, you know, I was a lawyer. 558 00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:59,400 Speaker 1: I was just doing work for my client. You know 559 00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,000 Speaker 1: I'm not. That doesn't mean that's what I think. You 560 00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:04,280 Speaker 1: don't know what I really think, and I have to 561 00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:07,040 Speaker 1: set that aside. And that just was not working for him. 562 00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:10,080 Speaker 1: I mean it just if there's a hint there that 563 00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:11,960 Speaker 1: you may have done something in the past or that 564 00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,680 Speaker 1: this may be your true opinion. And he had written 565 00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,400 Speaker 1: some blog posts too, like Once upon a Time talking 566 00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:23,000 Speaker 1: about fetuses and being people. You know people are people 567 00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,480 Speaker 1: are pretty good at sniffing that out and going nope, 568 00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:27,120 Speaker 1: like you're going, You're not going to be able to 569 00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:29,440 Speaker 1: do it unless you basically come out unless it's just 570 00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:33,400 Speaker 1: not relevant in this race, or you have to take 571 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,160 Speaker 1: a much stronger stance, and I think you can get 572 00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:38,360 Speaker 1: through Republican primary right now with well, the closer we 573 00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:41,720 Speaker 1: get to the primaries for the presidential race or really 574 00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:44,959 Speaker 1: just any election in twenty twenty four, the farther away 575 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:48,720 Speaker 1: we are getting from the actual overturning of Roe v. Waite. 576 00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:50,880 Speaker 1: And I just wonder if this is an issue that 577 00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,280 Speaker 1: you see is having longevity, or is that kind of 578 00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,040 Speaker 1: galvanizing effect it has had with certain members of the 579 00:33:57,080 --> 00:34:00,800 Speaker 1: voting populace just going to be faded. I mean, this 580 00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,360 Speaker 1: was a special election in which there was basically nothing 581 00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:06,600 Speaker 1: else on the ballot, and they're designed that way. They're 582 00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:11,920 Speaker 1: typically in Wisconsin, the Supreme Court races are held in 583 00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:16,520 Speaker 1: the spring after another big election and there for ten years, 584 00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:18,880 Speaker 1: and it's designed that way to sort of take the 585 00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:24,160 Speaker 1: politics out out of the races. So so normally these 586 00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:26,839 Speaker 1: the one reason why Republicans controlled it for so long 587 00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:30,560 Speaker 1: is that it's a typically a wider, more conservative, more reliable, 588 00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:33,759 Speaker 1: older voter that you get in these races, and you 589 00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:36,160 Speaker 1: did not get that this time. I mean Dane County, 590 00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:39,799 Speaker 1: where a lot of college students live. It was incredible 591 00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,799 Speaker 1: turnout through the roof, turn out among young people through 592 00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:46,800 Speaker 1: the roof and they were voting eighty percent for Protesaywites 593 00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:51,360 Speaker 1: in Dane County. So so abortion helped her win the suburbs, 594 00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:56,480 Speaker 1: It helped her cut the Republicans traditional advantage in the 595 00:34:56,640 --> 00:35:00,120 Speaker 1: in the suburban areas of Wisconsin, it helped her win 596 00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:02,920 Speaker 1: the Democratic strongholds. And then it just, you know, was 597 00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:05,879 Speaker 1: this accelerant to young people. And I got to say, 598 00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:09,319 Speaker 1: like the the the highest youth turnout that we've had 599 00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:11,880 Speaker 1: in the last thirty years was twenty eighteen, and the 600 00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:16,600 Speaker 1: second highest was twenty twenty two. So those are not 601 00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:20,640 Speaker 1: I mean, those are mid terms, those are not Like traditionally, 602 00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:25,319 Speaker 1: Democrats youth voters have kind of like left Democrats, you know, 603 00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,319 Speaker 1: waiting at the altar, like they've always thought, oh, we 604 00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:30,879 Speaker 1: just we can win the young people and they'll turn out. 605 00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,960 Speaker 1: And then you know, they they got busy. They were 606 00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,040 Speaker 1: they were trying to get Taylor Swift tickets or something. 607 00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:39,480 Speaker 1: But young people are really energized. They're really turning out 608 00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:42,840 Speaker 1: in high numbers, and they've been doing it since twenty eighteen, 609 00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:46,320 Speaker 1: and uh they're so that's it's a habit now. I 610 00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:48,359 Speaker 1: mean that's that's three election cycles in a row where 611 00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,480 Speaker 1: young people have turned out. I don't think you can 612 00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:51,680 Speaker 1: look at that and say, oh, well, that was just 613 00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:54,480 Speaker 1: a one time thing. I think this is a a 614 00:35:54,560 --> 00:36:00,640 Speaker 1: flashing signal for Republicans that they're facing every day more 615 00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:04,960 Speaker 1: young people turning out to vote, turning eighteen and deciding 616 00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:07,000 Speaker 1: that they're Democrats and voting for Democrats. I don't know 617 00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,480 Speaker 1: that they're deciding that they're Democrats because young people are 618 00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:13,560 Speaker 1: not joining parties, but they're voting for Democrats. They're independence 619 00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:18,280 Speaker 1: leaning Democratic. So you consider twenty four here, and that's 620 00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:22,360 Speaker 1: that's a deciding factor for a growing number of voters 621 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:24,640 Speaker 1: in that premise. And we know that Ronda Santis, who 622 00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:27,759 Speaker 1: has yet to announce, has promised to sign a six 623 00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:31,280 Speaker 1: week ban, and it does appear that that will reach 624 00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:35,640 Speaker 1: his desk in Florida. So that sets up the very 625 00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,399 Speaker 1: scenario that we're talking about here. I mean that that's 626 00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:41,520 Speaker 1: beyond you know, that's well, that's beyond what many people 627 00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:47,320 Speaker 1: consider acceptable. How does he continue that narrative in a 628 00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:50,280 Speaker 1: race against Donald Trump, who's going to try to out 629 00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:53,520 Speaker 1: life and out evangelicalize him on a debate stage. You know, 630 00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:57,200 Speaker 1: to be fair, that the Florida legislation would allow up 631 00:36:57,239 --> 00:37:01,680 Speaker 1: to fifteen weeks with u with a reason a quote unquote, 632 00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:04,239 Speaker 1: So there's some wiggle room there where he may try 633 00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:05,799 Speaker 1: to say it's not actually a six week ban when 634 00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:07,640 Speaker 1: he's trying to frame it one way, and no, it's 635 00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:09,040 Speaker 1: a six week band where he's trying to frame it 636 00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:12,080 Speaker 1: another way. That's I don't think that's helpful for him 637 00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:14,600 Speaker 1: in the general election. I mean, I just full stop, 638 00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:17,640 Speaker 1: and it's not helpful arguing between six and fifteen weeks. 639 00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:19,560 Speaker 1: You might have lost that argument, right, Yeah, I mean 640 00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:24,680 Speaker 1: you're and it's just not it's it's just anytime when 641 00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:26,920 Speaker 1: it's like you're playing defense then because you're having to 642 00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:29,279 Speaker 1: explain what you what you wanted. And I think that 643 00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:30,920 Speaker 1: the reason why he wants to sign this bill is 644 00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:32,640 Speaker 1: that he thinks it will help him in the Republican primary. 645 00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:36,640 Speaker 1: Is probably not wrong on that. Donald Trump does not 646 00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:38,719 Speaker 1: seem to really talk as much about abortion as you 647 00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:41,359 Speaker 1: would think for a guy who actually sort of got 648 00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:44,040 Speaker 1: done what a lot of Republican presidential candidates said they 649 00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:46,960 Speaker 1: would do. I mean, like that he appointed the justices 650 00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,200 Speaker 1: who did this, and there's a lot of Republicans who 651 00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:51,600 Speaker 1: ran for years saying that they would do that, but 652 00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:55,279 Speaker 1: not really doing it. And he did it, and yet 653 00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:57,279 Speaker 1: he doesn't really brag about it that much. And a 654 00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:00,359 Speaker 1: lot of anti abortion folks kind of wish he would 655 00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:03,040 Speaker 1: talk more and actually wish that he would say more 656 00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:05,520 Speaker 1: about what he'll do next, and he kind of doesn't. 657 00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:09,279 Speaker 1: And I don't know if that's because he sees it 658 00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:13,440 Speaker 1: as not a strong issue, or if he sort of 659 00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,560 Speaker 1: feels like, hey, I fulfilled my part of the bargain. 660 00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:17,879 Speaker 1: You know, I'm done, or he thinks that he's strong 661 00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:20,239 Speaker 1: enough on the issue that it's that it's not worth 662 00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:24,640 Speaker 1: getting into. But that's that's in a general election, also 663 00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,520 Speaker 1: a liability for him. Just quickly, if all of this 664 00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:29,920 Speaker 1: at its root, to a certain extent, comes down to 665 00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:32,000 Speaker 1: the overturning of rov Waite. At that time, we were 666 00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:34,560 Speaker 1: having a whole conversation about faith in the Supreme Court. 667 00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:36,560 Speaker 1: At the same time today we're looking at the Probubble 668 00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:40,600 Speaker 1: article about Justice Thomas and in his relationship with a billionaire. 669 00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:44,439 Speaker 1: Just from your perspective, quickly, how is faith in the court? 670 00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:47,879 Speaker 1: Confidence in the ut It is very low among Democrats 671 00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:52,640 Speaker 1: and independence who lean democratic, and I think that there's 672 00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:56,560 Speaker 1: an increasing sense among folks, and like this Wisconsin race 673 00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:59,080 Speaker 1: is kind of a classic of example of that. But 674 00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:01,359 Speaker 1: there's just an increasing sense among folks that it's just 675 00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:06,080 Speaker 1: another political entity. And and you know, of course that's true, 676 00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:10,920 Speaker 1: like we all if they're dominated by yeah, certain part. 677 00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:13,279 Speaker 1: It's always been part of politics, but it's always also 678 00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:15,719 Speaker 1: presented itself as being a little bit apart from politics. 679 00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:19,400 Speaker 1: And that's just increasingly hard for them to manage that. 680 00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:23,120 Speaker 1: And I think it in the past when the Supreme 681 00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:26,279 Speaker 1: Court has managed to make a couple decisions that cut 682 00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:28,719 Speaker 1: against their own side, that's helped, but that's not they're 683 00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:30,840 Speaker 1: not able to do that right now. Yeah, Ryan Teakbeck 684 00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:33,799 Speaker 1: with many thanks, as always, Bloomberg Politics reporter on the 685 00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:36,640 Speaker 1: Wisconsin election. You might not have paid enough attention to 686 00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:39,439 Speaker 1: this week. You haven't heard the last of it. You're 687 00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:43,120 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program 688 00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:46,839 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune 689 00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:49,960 Speaker 1: in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 690 00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:52,920 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 691 00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:57,040 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven 692 00:39:57,160 --> 00:40:02,320 Speaker 1: thirty alongside lines in Washington, we have breaking news today 693 00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:05,160 Speaker 1: from the White House, the after action report on the 694 00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:07,840 Speaker 1: withdrawal from Afghanistan. This is a pretty big deal and 695 00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:10,200 Speaker 1: you can read about it now. Justin sync from our 696 00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:12,680 Speaker 1: White House team has a story on the terminal Biden 697 00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:17,040 Speaker 1: Afghanistan review sees need for better evacuation plans. Kayleie, you 698 00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:21,120 Speaker 1: remember when this unfolded, It was captivated while the world 699 00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:24,080 Speaker 1: for days, and it turned out to be terribly tragic 700 00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:27,319 Speaker 1: with the death of yeah, thirteen marines there, but what 701 00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:32,760 Speaker 1: was also, you know, an unprecedented airlift that that started 702 00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:35,920 Speaker 1: with good intentions but started to look more like Saigon 703 00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,319 Speaker 1: by the day. Yeah. I don't think anyone can ever 704 00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:40,759 Speaker 1: erase from their mind the images of Afghans trying to 705 00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,880 Speaker 1: chase American military planes on the tarmac at the airport, 706 00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:47,040 Speaker 1: lifting babies over the walls to US soldiers. Really a 707 00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:50,680 Speaker 1: difficult scene to watch, and really just at the time, 708 00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:53,240 Speaker 1: I think a world that was shocked by the speed 709 00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,759 Speaker 1: with which Gobble fell and that the Taliban was able 710 00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:59,799 Speaker 1: to regain control, something the military clearly wasn't prepared for. 711 00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,600 Speaker 1: Of course, as we read this report, the Biden administration 712 00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:06,880 Speaker 1: while acknowledging it needs review to do it better the 713 00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:09,120 Speaker 1: next time around, placed us a lot of plain on 714 00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:13,600 Speaker 1: the prior administration. Yeah, that came up today in the 715 00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:16,600 Speaker 1: briefing room with John Kirby. That's when this was unveiled 716 00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:19,760 Speaker 1: just in the last hour, the spokesman for the National 717 00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:22,960 Speaker 1: Security Council. I would argue that the very fact that 718 00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:27,879 Speaker 1: we voluntarily, the agencies voluntarily decided to go conduct after 719 00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:30,120 Speaker 1: action reviews, nobody told him to do that. That wasn't 720 00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:32,440 Speaker 1: legislated by Congress. They did that on their own. And 721 00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:34,600 Speaker 1: the fact that they did that, and that we were 722 00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:38,359 Speaker 1: now placing it on the hill for Congress to look 723 00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:41,400 Speaker 1: at the fact that we digested and distilled some of 724 00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:43,279 Speaker 1: the key points of that and gave it out in 725 00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:45,279 Speaker 1: a public document. The fact that I'm up here talking 726 00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:47,600 Speaker 1: to you about it, I think shows you how seriously 727 00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:51,480 Speaker 1: that the President felt about learning lessons from this withdrawal. 728 00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:53,960 Speaker 1: I would also point out to you that the work 729 00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:57,080 Speaker 1: isn't over. Work isn't over as we bring in. Alex Zurden, 730 00:41:57,160 --> 00:42:01,160 Speaker 1: former Treasury attache in Afghanistan, now runs Capital Peak, a 731 00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:04,120 Speaker 1: risk advisory firm. He was in Afghanistan from July of 732 00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:07,680 Speaker 1: twenty eighteen to January of twenty twenty Alex, it's great 733 00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:09,960 Speaker 1: to have you here. Does the administration deserve credit for 734 00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:13,799 Speaker 1: doing its own internal review? Joe Kyley, thank you so 735 00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:16,960 Speaker 1: much for having me. I think this is an important step. Look, 736 00:42:17,080 --> 00:42:20,040 Speaker 1: the events in August twenty twenty one with the withdrawal 737 00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:24,400 Speaker 1: captured all of our understanding of the challenges over twenty 738 00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:27,719 Speaker 1: years plus in Afghanistan, and it's an important way to 739 00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:31,680 Speaker 1: make sure that the sacrifices by thousands of soldiers marines 740 00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:35,120 Speaker 1: over those decades were not in vain, and especially at 741 00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:37,759 Speaker 1: the time of the widthrawal. So there's some important nuggets here, 742 00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:40,839 Speaker 1: there's some important lessons, and there's still so much work 743 00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:43,240 Speaker 1: to be done, so much more to be understood about 744 00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:47,680 Speaker 1: our twenty year saga in Afghanistan. So obviously this was 745 00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:50,480 Speaker 1: a war that took place over decades, but specifically in 746 00:42:50,520 --> 00:42:53,399 Speaker 1: the report they are pointing to decisions that were made 747 00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:56,520 Speaker 1: over the course of just a couple of years before 748 00:42:57,000 --> 00:43:00,279 Speaker 1: Kabwat fell and the withdrawal happened. I'm quoting direct here. 749 00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:03,440 Speaker 1: President Biden's choices for how to execute withdrawal from Afghanistan 750 00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:07,520 Speaker 1: were severely constrained by conditions created by his predecessor. When 751 00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:10,560 Speaker 1: he came into office, he was confronted with difficult realities 752 00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:14,360 Speaker 1: left to him by the Trump administration. Alex how true 753 00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:19,520 Speaker 1: is that the story is still unfolding. There's an Afghanistan 754 00:43:19,560 --> 00:43:22,799 Speaker 1: War Commission that Congress authorized, and that it's still just 755 00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:27,839 Speaker 1: getting underway to understand the history of our time in Afghanistan. 756 00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:32,000 Speaker 1: There's plenty of blame to go around across multiple administrations 757 00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:35,160 Speaker 1: about the failures and the challenges in Afghanistan. But I 758 00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:38,000 Speaker 1: think it's a factual matter, and I had the opportunity, 759 00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:40,880 Speaker 1: in the privilege to serve in the US government during 760 00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:44,080 Speaker 1: the peace process and the negotiations between the US government 761 00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:46,640 Speaker 1: and the Taliban. There was a commitment by the Trump 762 00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:50,279 Speaker 1: administration in February twenty twenty two that called for the 763 00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:54,960 Speaker 1: withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. So, in a certain sense, 764 00:43:55,080 --> 00:43:57,760 Speaker 1: the train had left the building d left the station 765 00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:00,880 Speaker 1: by the time that the Biden administration came in. The 766 00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:05,520 Speaker 1: report reveals that President Biden asked his advisers to consider 767 00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,920 Speaker 1: whether to trigger evacuation efforts on the sixth of August. 768 00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:13,920 Speaker 1: Senior leaders recommended doing so twice before the President initiated 769 00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:16,640 Speaker 1: the effort on the fourteenth of August. Alex would have 770 00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:20,279 Speaker 1: made a difference if this started earlier. I think there's 771 00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:22,640 Speaker 1: obviously a lot of lessons learned here. The earlier you 772 00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:28,880 Speaker 1: withdraw US persons, US forces, US diplomats, the quicker it 773 00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:31,160 Speaker 1: is to get out. But this is so much easier 774 00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:34,480 Speaker 1: in hindsight. We were all living outside government at the time, 775 00:44:34,520 --> 00:44:38,040 Speaker 1: but we were all living this crisis unfolding in real time, 776 00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:40,880 Speaker 1: and I don't think anyone expected cobble and the country 777 00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:44,200 Speaker 1: to collapse as quickly as it did. So again we're 778 00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:47,880 Speaker 1: speaking with the benefit of hindsight here, But what the administration, 779 00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:50,000 Speaker 1: depending on says they're trying to do is make sure 780 00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:52,680 Speaker 1: that it doesn't happen again. Right, What corrections need to 781 00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:56,480 Speaker 1: happen going forward, better evacuation plans, What were the biggest 782 00:44:56,560 --> 00:45:01,319 Speaker 1: flaws that need to be fixed? So as I think 783 00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:04,640 Speaker 1: the report highlights the lessons have already been implemented in 784 00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:08,560 Speaker 1: places like Ukraine in Ethiopia for the benefit of US citizens, 785 00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:11,960 Speaker 1: US diplomats and others. The flaws I mean again, this 786 00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:15,080 Speaker 1: is I think this is a summary of a classified 787 00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:17,560 Speaker 1: and non classified reports to Congress, and so we don't 788 00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:19,480 Speaker 1: know the full extent, and so I just want to 789 00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:23,400 Speaker 1: be in fairness, this is a public disclosure we're seeing. 790 00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:26,880 Speaker 1: But I think look like the tension that they outline 791 00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:30,320 Speaker 1: in this report is that the earlier you raise concerns 792 00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:32,839 Speaker 1: and the more communication and the more information you share 793 00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:37,759 Speaker 1: earlier on it is a zero sum with what you know, 794 00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:41,600 Speaker 1: expressing confidence in your partners, expressing confidence in the host 795 00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:45,359 Speaker 1: government about their capabilities, and so you're really making very 796 00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:49,279 Speaker 1: very difficult trade offs of when to order withdrawals and 797 00:45:49,360 --> 00:45:51,480 Speaker 1: a what skill to do that on what time horizes 798 00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:55,680 Speaker 1: John Kirby today, Alex echoing what we've heard from Pentagon 799 00:45:55,719 --> 00:45:59,560 Speaker 1: officials since that withdrawal in August, is that no one 800 00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:01,520 Speaker 1: predicts that. In fact, they said it would go very 801 00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:05,360 Speaker 1: differently the rapid fall of Kabbal here he is. No 802 00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:10,000 Speaker 1: agency predicted a Taliban takeover in nine days. No agency 803 00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:13,759 Speaker 1: predicted the rapid fleeing of President Ghani, who had indicated 804 00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:17,040 Speaker 1: to US his intent to remain in Afghanistan up until 805 00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:20,160 Speaker 1: he departed on the fifteenth of August, And no agency 806 00:46:20,600 --> 00:46:23,719 Speaker 1: predicted that more that the more than three hundred thousand 807 00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:27,719 Speaker 1: trained and equipped Afghan national security and defense forces would 808 00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:31,160 Speaker 1: fail to fight for the country, particularly the latter there 809 00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:33,399 Speaker 1: Alex how much of this was an intelligence failure as 810 00:46:33,400 --> 00:46:39,240 Speaker 1: opposed to bad management. I think that we are still 811 00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:42,680 Speaker 1: learning the true history and the true accounting of this. 812 00:46:42,920 --> 00:46:45,600 Speaker 1: I think it was very hard to protect the collapse 813 00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:48,400 Speaker 1: of the forces in Afghanistan and the government in particular, 814 00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:52,720 Speaker 1: as Dad mc kerby noted, And look, we had different 815 00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:55,319 Speaker 1: examples in places like Ukraine, where the government stayed in 816 00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:59,240 Speaker 1: President Luky stayed in power, and the people, the citizens 817 00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:04,160 Speaker 1: of Ukraine fought against Russian invasion. We have contrast to Afghanistan. 818 00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:06,759 Speaker 1: We don't know if this will be a unique situation 819 00:47:07,080 --> 00:47:10,120 Speaker 1: and unique circumstances, or if this is a template for 820 00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:13,279 Speaker 1: the future. We can talk about the lessons learned from 821 00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:16,000 Speaker 1: the withdrawal of Afghanistan, but we can also talk about 822 00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:20,600 Speaker 1: the lessons learned by that war in the first place, which, 823 00:47:20,680 --> 00:47:24,719 Speaker 1: as you've already said, we're talking decades of fighting here. 824 00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:28,080 Speaker 1: How do you think this informs the wars that the 825 00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:31,320 Speaker 1: US is or is not willing to wage in the future. 826 00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:34,920 Speaker 1: I think this is the strength of our democracy and 827 00:47:35,040 --> 00:47:39,520 Speaker 1: of the sound principle disagreement that exists among different parties 828 00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:43,920 Speaker 1: in the US Congress again has authorized one in oversight 829 00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:47,040 Speaker 1: entity in the Cigar, which provides ongoing oversight still to 830 00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:50,440 Speaker 1: this day, of what happened on the ground in Afghanistan. 831 00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:53,680 Speaker 1: They also commissioned the Afghanistan War Commission to study this 832 00:47:54,160 --> 00:47:58,040 Speaker 1: deliberately and in a bi partisan, rigorous manner for several years. 833 00:47:58,120 --> 00:48:01,239 Speaker 1: Is their mandate. There are other mechanisms in the public 834 00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:03,400 Speaker 1: and private sectors they can look at this, and I 835 00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:05,520 Speaker 1: think we take the lessons learn them. This was an 836 00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:10,360 Speaker 1: incredible expenditure of blood and treasure, over two trillion dollars, 837 00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:15,120 Speaker 1: thousands of soldiers killed, in tens of thousands wounded. We 838 00:48:15,320 --> 00:48:18,000 Speaker 1: have the obligation to learn the lessons and to apply 839 00:48:18,080 --> 00:48:19,960 Speaker 1: them in the future. We're seeing again parts of this 840 00:48:20,120 --> 00:48:22,920 Speaker 1: already applied to Ukraine, and I think we have concerns 841 00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:26,040 Speaker 1: where other threats are emerging around the world continue to 842 00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:28,440 Speaker 1: get worse, that we make sure we make best use 843 00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:31,680 Speaker 1: of these resources and they make best use of these 844 00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:35,719 Speaker 1: lessons for the benefit of the American people. Moving forward, 845 00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:41,399 Speaker 1: you mentioned the investigation in Congress into the withdrawal from Afghanistan. 846 00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:44,120 Speaker 1: This has become a big issue for Republicans. The new 847 00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:47,240 Speaker 1: Republican majority in the House. Well, this after action report 848 00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:50,239 Speaker 1: be factored in, or they're going to do their own investigation, 849 00:48:50,360 --> 00:48:54,480 Speaker 1: bring officials from the administration and for their own interviews. Yeah, 850 00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:57,080 Speaker 1: this is certainly not the end. This is just a 851 00:48:57,160 --> 00:49:02,200 Speaker 1: middle waypoint of ongoing investigations among the Republican control of 852 00:49:02,239 --> 00:49:08,320 Speaker 1: Congress as well as again this bipartisan Afghantan War Commission, 853 00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:10,320 Speaker 1: as well as the ongoing work of Cegars. So there's 854 00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:14,560 Speaker 1: a panically a number of different oversight mechanisms that exist, 855 00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:19,480 Speaker 1: and some with more or less political intention. So this 856 00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:23,160 Speaker 1: is again just the center part at midpoint of years 857 00:49:23,160 --> 00:49:27,919 Speaker 1: long ongoing investigations that are far from over. Alex Urton 858 00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:30,560 Speaker 1: many thanks for the analysis here in the Clutch with 859 00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:32,880 Speaker 1: breaking news. We talked to the former Treasury at Tache 860 00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:36,920 Speaker 1: in Afghanistan on this after action reports now at Capitol 861 00:49:37,000 --> 00:49:40,600 Speaker 1: Peak runs that risk advisory firm here in Washington, DC. 862 00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:44,640 Speaker 1: Pretty remarkable moments and it feels a little bit like Friday, Newstan. 863 00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:48,200 Speaker 1: It does it not just any Friday as well. Head 864 00:49:48,200 --> 00:49:54,360 Speaker 1: of Easter. Thanks for listening to the sound On podcast. 865 00:49:54,440 --> 00:49:57,480 Speaker 1: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apples, Spotify, 866 00:49:57,600 --> 00:50:00,120 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can 867 00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:03,080 Speaker 1: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one 868 00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:07,120 Speaker 1: pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.