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Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you

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Speaker 1: ETOs dot com slash chuck. Application times may vary and

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Speaker 1: rates may vary. Hello there, welcome to a Yes special

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Speaker 1: Friday edition. I told you I was delaying and upload

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Speaker 1: for twenty four hours. We had passed over. Of course

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Speaker 1: I was doing. I know today is good Friday. We

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Speaker 1: got Easter on Sunday, so I'm aware this is to

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Speaker 1: be a big holiday weekend. But the news doesn't stop.

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Speaker 1: In fact, the President made an unusual decision. I think

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Speaker 1: a strange decision to give a speech to the nation

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Speaker 1: on April Fool's Day, on the first night of passover

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Speaker 1: about a war in the Middle East. It seemed like

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Speaker 1: a strange timing decision. It was a speech arguably that

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Speaker 1: he should have given a month, if not more ago.

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Speaker 1: But look, we've got a lot going on here. In fact,

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Speaker 1: I just want to give you a quick rundown of today.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna get a little bit more in Iran. I

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Speaker 1: know I did do a special sort of reaction to

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Speaker 1: the speech that's been sitting on YouTube. Some of you

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Speaker 1: may have heard that already. We'll have a little bit

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Speaker 1: of update on the Pambandi situation. We've got my guest today.

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Speaker 1: It's all about China and Taiwan Ike Freeman, who has

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Speaker 1: written a book about sort of about this challenge that's

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Speaker 1: coming forward. And so you know, we are we are

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Speaker 1: in a precarious moment for America's leadership around the world. Essentially,

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Speaker 1: we have a president that is giving up on America

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Speaker 1: being leader of the free world, torching NATO, and it's

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Speaker 1: putting a situation where the two biggest winners of this

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Speaker 1: Iran war, so far are Russia and China, So an

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Speaker 1: American president, it keeps making decisions that only strengthen two

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Speaker 1: countries that many people in this country believe are our

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Speaker 1: chief adversaries. But I'm going to get to that minute.

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Speaker 1: So our conversation will be about Taiwan and whether Taiwan's

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Speaker 1: going to be taken by force or not, will the

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Speaker 1: United States militarily defend Taiwan or not a lot of

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Speaker 1: open questions there. Of course, we'll have questions. And hey,

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Speaker 1: when you're by the time you're listening to this, we're

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Speaker 1: going to be minutes away from first pitch for the

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Speaker 1: NAT's home opener Nationals Dodgers where I'll be. So if

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Speaker 1: you see me, give me a little toodcast cheesery if

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Speaker 1: you will. But I digress. But look, let's start quickly.

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Speaker 1: I want to do the Pambondi situation first, and then

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Speaker 1: I want to come back on Iran because I want

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Speaker 1: to give you a little bit of a preview of

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Speaker 1: my guest on my Newsphere show this week, which hit

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Speaker 1: drops on Sunday night. It's Daniel Jurgen, who's probably the

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Speaker 1: most knowledgeable person in this country, if not the world,

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Speaker 1: on the energy markets. He wrote arguably the bible on

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Speaker 1: understanding energy markets. The prize. For me, it's a very

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Speaker 1: just if you care about the energy markets and you

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Speaker 1: care about what all this means, this is probably the

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Speaker 1: bible of that. It won the Pulitzer Prize. As he

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Speaker 1: said to me, he goes, he goes this book, it

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Speaker 1: just doesn't die. It just keeps living. And it's like, yes,

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Speaker 1: yes it does. But let's just say, mister Jurgen didn't

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Speaker 1: have a lot of positive things to say about where

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Speaker 1: the economy has headed. But I'm going to get to

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Speaker 1: that in a minute. I want to start with the

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Speaker 1: Pam Bondi situation. So the president decides to fire pambody.

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Speaker 1: What's interesting is that there seemed to have been bipartisan

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Speaker 1: calls for her to be fired. And it's quote unquote

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Speaker 1: handling of the Epstein files. But I think we all

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Speaker 1: need to realize why did Donald Trump fire her? Did

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Speaker 1: he fire her because he thought she didn't handle the

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Speaker 1: Epstein files?

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Speaker 2: Well?

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Speaker 1: Did he fire her because she wasn't more open with

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Speaker 1: the Epstein files? Did he fire her because she was

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Speaker 1: doing too many partisan prosecutions or not enough partisan prosecutions?

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Speaker 1: And to understand, you know, I think Pambondi is Jeff Sessions,

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Speaker 1: and that's what I think everybody needs to understand here.

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Speaker 1: Pambondy is Jeff Sessions, somebody who got the job because

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Speaker 1: the president thought they'd be loyal and got the job

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Speaker 1: because the person promised to be low. But I think

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Speaker 1: pam Bondi had the same respect for some parts of

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Speaker 1: the institution that Jeff Sessions had, and there were certain

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Speaker 1: things she wouldn't do, or certain things she was uncomfortable doing,

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Speaker 1: and you could kind of tell, right she'd be handhanded

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Speaker 1: about it in one hand and then sort of you know,

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Speaker 1: picked interos let Todd Blanche the President's personal attorney, who's

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Speaker 1: the deputy Attorney General, sort of deal with the political

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Speaker 1: side of things. And I think it's clear, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's funny. It's one of these things where I know

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Speaker 1: it's going to sound like I'm defending Pambondi. It's not

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Speaker 1: defending Panbondi here, but it's you know, remember why he

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Speaker 1: chose to fire her, right, he didn't do it for

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Speaker 1: the reasons many of you think made her deserving of

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Speaker 1: being fired. And I think that is extraordinarily important in

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Speaker 1: this moment. And let's remind let's look at who he

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Speaker 1: named acting attorney general, his person, his one time personal attorney,

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Speaker 1: which is, you know, the greatest conflict of interest that

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Speaker 1: you could put into that position. And now it's all

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Speaker 1: the way up at attorney general. But the issue is

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Speaker 1: it is impossible to be Donald Trump's attorney general. He

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Speaker 1: does not believe in separation, He does not believe in

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Speaker 1: a fair judiciary system. He wants to weaponize it. He

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Speaker 1: has said he wants to weaponize it right and how to,

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Speaker 1: And he he wants to weaponize it because he believes

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Speaker 1: it was weaponized against him. Right, it's all a revenge

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Speaker 1: to her, and everything is everything is reactionary with him,

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Speaker 1: and it's probably not. It shouldn't be lost on anybody

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Speaker 1: that that you know Donald Trump's entire adult life, basically

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Speaker 1: his first foray into helping run his father's business was

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Speaker 1: a run in with the Department of Justice. He first

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Speaker 1: had to hire Roy Comb to beat back the Justice

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Speaker 1: Department on racial discrimination issues involving him and his father's business.

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Speaker 1: So is no doubt that he is He'd views it

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Speaker 1: as an antagonist and he wants to essentially being in

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Speaker 1: charge of it, use it, and deploy the Justice Department

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Speaker 1: to serve his needs and to serve his political so

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Speaker 1: political end. So I really this is such an odd

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Speaker 1: thing here, but you know, it's it very much to

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Speaker 1: me mirrors mirrors the Jeff Session situation. But to understand,

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Speaker 1: you know, Pam Bondy, you know, there's an interesting lesson here.

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Speaker 1: I teach this class how Washington works. Many of you

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Speaker 1: have brought it up before. And one of the I

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Speaker 1: brought one of the guest speakers that I brought in

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Speaker 1: is somebody who who basically had to got punished because

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Speaker 1: of who he worked for. And i'ling because this is

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Speaker 1: this stuff's off the record, and I always want to

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Speaker 1: promise that to my guest speakers. But the lesson I

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Speaker 1: want my students to im partans like, be careful when

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Speaker 1: you know politics is it's a team sport at times,

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Speaker 1: but you know, when you work for an individual politician,

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Speaker 1: you may be asked to do things that you may

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Speaker 1: feel morally is unacceptable, ethically as unacceptable, or is actually illegal.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump doesn't care about anything other than the loyalty.

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Speaker 1: And it's just interesting. And I think that if you

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Speaker 1: understand Pam Bondi's origin story, I think it will it.

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Speaker 1: It strikes me is we won't know the specific reason

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Speaker 1: why what happened that Trump just said he had enough right,

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Speaker 1: but it was not because she was not more forthcoming

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Speaker 1: about the Epstein files. Trust me, he's mad that she

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Speaker 1: hasn't put that away. And I promise you the next

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Speaker 1: Attorney general is is not going to be given a

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Speaker 1: mandate to be more forthcoming with the Epstein files to Congress.

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Speaker 1: And since she got herself subpoena, then got herself by

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Speaker 1: the Oversight Committee, he just wanted to prevent that from

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Speaker 1: ever happening. I'll be curious to see if that subpoena

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Speaker 1: still stands, if she's no longer Attorney general. But to understand,

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Speaker 1: you know, you know, Pambondi could have easily become an

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Speaker 1: Attorney general in a democratic administration. And I know some

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Speaker 1: of you thinking, what are you talking about, Chuck, have

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Speaker 1: you lost it? She was actually a Democrat until two thousand.

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Speaker 1: Let me give you a reminder. She she she's the

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Speaker 1: daughter her father, Joseph Bondi, was a local politician. He

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Speaker 1: was the mayor. He was the mayor of a small

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Speaker 1: town in the seventies. So she's sort of grew up

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Speaker 1: in the world of politics. Now, she grew up. You know,

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Speaker 1: she was in democratic politics in the South, which could

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Speaker 1: be very conservative. Right, we know this, all of you

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Speaker 1: know this. Many Many, a Democrat of the seventies, eighties

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Speaker 1: and even through the nineties, eventually switched to the Republican Party.

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Speaker 1: Come come the twenty first century. But what's interesting about

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Speaker 1: her career. You know, she graduated law school from Stetson.

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Speaker 1: It's a school the Land, Florida, sort of kind of

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Speaker 1: halfway between Daytona and Orlando, but it's in that general area.

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Speaker 1: It's not on the water. It's kind of Inland a

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Speaker 1: little bit. Stetson has a great college baseball team, by

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Speaker 1: the way, that's like the one it's like their one

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Speaker 1: d one sport I think is baseball. It's always at

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Speaker 1: a role respected law school. It was one of the

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Speaker 1: only law schools in the state for a while. Now,

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Speaker 1: I mean there was a time Florida state didn't have

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Speaker 1: a law school. They do now, et cetera. So she

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Speaker 1: goes to sets in law school. She spent more than

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Speaker 1: eighteen years a prosecutor in Hillsboro County, which is you know, Tampa,

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Speaker 1: big big Tampa Bay area. Her specialism She specialized in

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Speaker 1: prosecuting child abuse cases. She was more of a true

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Speaker 1: legal beagle, if you would call it now. She switched

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Speaker 1: to the Republican Party around two thousand, but she didn't

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Speaker 1: really enter politics, if you will, until two thousand and nine.

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Speaker 1: She left her prosecutor job and entered the race for

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Speaker 1: Florida Attorney General, which by the way, at one point

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Speaker 1: was going to feature Marco Rubio, and then he decided

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Speaker 1: instead to run for the US Senate and challenge a

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Speaker 1: sitting governor decided not to seek reelection but to seek

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Speaker 1: US Senate seat at the time, a Republican named Charlie Christ. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think we all know what happened there. The irony

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Speaker 1: is if Chris and Rubio had worked out their deal

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Speaker 1: where Rubio runs for AG and doesn't primary Christ, which

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Speaker 1: was a deal that was in the making, and there

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Speaker 1: was a twenty four hour period where it looked like

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Speaker 1: that was going to happen. Pan Bondi never enters, perhaps

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Speaker 1: never even enters Republican politics, but she wins the attorney

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Speaker 1: general race in twenty ten. And it's in twenty thirteen,

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Speaker 1: and this is an important story, the origin of the

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Speaker 1: Bondi Trump relationship is very transactional. In twenty thirteen, when

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Speaker 1: she was attorney General, she received at least twenty two

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Speaker 1: fraud complaints about Trump University. Her office was considering joining

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Speaker 1: a lawsuit that was being brought against Trump University by

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Speaker 1: the New York Attorney General, Eric Schneiderman. Four days later, though,

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Speaker 1: when that word got out that Florida might join this

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Speaker 1: would be a bipartisan lawsuit against Trump University, a Trump

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Speaker 1: pack donated twenty five thousand dollars to her re election committee,

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Speaker 1: and then Pam Bondi declined to join the lawsuit. Well,

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Speaker 1: that brought her into Trump's orbit. She becomes part of

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Speaker 1: the Trump transition in twenty sixteen, she becomes an impeachment

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Speaker 1: defense attorney in twenty twenty, and then, of course was

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Speaker 1: the backup plan after the mac Gates implosion to bag

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Speaker 1: the start of the second term. The point is is

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Speaker 1: that she she sort of spent half her adult life

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Speaker 1: and half of her legal career just being a career

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Speaker 1: prosecutor sort of and less a politician. And then when

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Speaker 1: she entered the world of politics, yes through the law

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Speaker 1: an elected attorney general, that's when she started to get actual.

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Speaker 1: But I have no doubt and I don't know this

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Speaker 1: for fact yet, but we know these stories are going

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Speaker 1: to come out that there were certain lines she just

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Speaker 1: wasn't going to cross because she kind of respected the system.

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Speaker 1: It's exactly what we saw with Bill Barr. Right, Bill

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Speaker 1: Barr as Trump's second attorney general were confirmed Attorney General

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Speaker 1: Matthew Whitaker was the acting in between Sessions and bar.

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Speaker 1: Bar's second attorney The bar was there was clearly lines

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Speaker 1: he wouldn't cross. Right. Look, he was chicken shit to

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Speaker 1: tell Trump no. It's why he resigned early before January sixth.

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Speaker 1: He knew what was coming, He knew it was going

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Speaker 1: to get asked from him, asked of him, and apparently

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Speaker 1: he didn't want to be there for it, so he

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Speaker 1: left it to his deputies to have to stand up

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Speaker 1: to Trump, which they did and kudos to mister Rosen

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Speaker 1: for doing that. But it was Barr's own way of

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Speaker 1: basically saying there were certain lines he wouldn't cross, and

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Speaker 1: there's no doubt in my mind there were certain lines

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Speaker 1: she wouldn't cross. The irony now is she's basically heard

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Speaker 1: her reputation with the right and heard a reputation with

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Speaker 1: the legal community and heard a reputation with the left right.

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Speaker 1: So welcome to what happens when you get sucked into

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Speaker 1: Trump's world. You know, this is a question that I

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Speaker 1: remind people all the time whose reputation has been enhanced

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Speaker 1: by working for Donald Trump. I joked with an appearance

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Speaker 1: on the Boston Public Radio earlier or earlier in the week,

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Speaker 1: that is, I can only think of two people, Michael

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Speaker 1: Cohen oddly and Stormy Daniels. Yes it's a punchline, laugh

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Speaker 1: it up. But again, I know there's all sorts of

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Speaker 1: celebrations about Panbine, but just remember he didn't fire her

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Speaker 1: for the reasons that maybe you think she deserved to

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Speaker 1: be fired for. That's not shouldn't be caused for celebration.

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Speaker 1: It actually should be cause for concern. What's coming next

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Speaker 1: to this Justice Department? That should concern everybody, And it's

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Speaker 1: a reminder that we have to radically change. I do

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Speaker 1: not think we should have presidents, and I'll I deal

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Speaker 1: with this in a question later in the show. But

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Speaker 1: it's pretty clear that that having presidential appointed had you know,

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Speaker 1: you cannot if you want a trusted legal system, you

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Speaker 1: can't let an extraordinarily partisan president run the Justice Department.

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Speaker 1: And that's what we're saying very quickly on updating a

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Speaker 1: little bit. Like I said, I've I've said my piece

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Speaker 1: on the on the president's speech, I think he just looked.

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Speaker 1: I think this is a political disaster for him. And

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Speaker 1: after speeding with Daniel Daniel Jurgen, this is not this

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Speaker 1: is he called it. This is the worst. He said,

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Speaker 1: this is already worse than seventy three, worse than any

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Speaker 1: of the energy crises in the in the seventies. And

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Speaker 1: it's an e c There's only been two beneficiaries, as

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Speaker 1: he said, it's Russia in China, and there's only one

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Speaker 1: country's military that has the ability to keep the straight

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Speaker 1: of hormones open, and it's the United States. So we're stuck.

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Speaker 1: He can retreat and say other countries have to do this,

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Speaker 1: They're not gonna be able to do this. And the

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Speaker 1: entire it's going to be global contagion. As we learned

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Speaker 1: during the pandemic, the global economy is global, pure and simple,

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Speaker 1: and so this is this is there's no insulating ourselves

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Speaker 1: from this, none at all. And he's and he's put

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Speaker 1: us in a situation where leaving now and allowing the

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Speaker 1: remnants of the Iranian regime to act as the toll

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Speaker 1: brids for oil for around the world is a disaster,

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Speaker 1: and it is only I mean, it is an energy

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Speaker 1: crisis that arguably created the stagflation crisis of the seventies.

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Speaker 1: And that's the situation we're staring at right now. It's

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Speaker 1: all it's lose lose situation at this point. And there's

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Speaker 1: a reason I keep telling you, don't follow what he says,

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Speaker 1: follow what we're doing. And we keep sending troops over there.

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Speaker 1: It's pretty clear we're going to probably have to use

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Speaker 1: ground troops to secure the strait of hormones because we're

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Speaker 1: the only entity that can secure the strait of hormones

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Speaker 1: that has the ability to use. And if we don't

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Speaker 1: do it, we do risk we risk geopolitical problems that

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Speaker 1: maybe we haven't thought about yet. You know, maybe the

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Speaker 1: Gulf States decide the deal that they cut with the

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Speaker 1: United States it didn't work it anymore, and they'll decide

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Speaker 1: to partner with China instead of the United States. There's

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Speaker 1: so many derivative disastrous scenarios from this. If he just

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Speaker 1: pulled up and leaves, and yet there are so many

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Speaker 1: scenarios and disasters if we send in ground trips. Right,

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Speaker 1: This was why so many American presidents listened to their

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Speaker 1: military advisors and realized how hard and difficult this would be,

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Speaker 1: and you better be willing to do it all. And

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Speaker 1: he and we know he doesn't. So this is the

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Speaker 1: worst of all worlds. We have an impatient president who

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Speaker 1: just wants a result and doesn't really understand, apparently how

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Speaker 1: hard this is and maybe didn't take geography when they

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Speaker 1: were teaching geography a pen. Maybe they didn't. Maybe he

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Speaker 1: didn't take a geography class. But geography is not our

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Speaker 1: friend here, and that is a reason why so many

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Speaker 1: American presidents, as much as much as they wanted to

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Speaker 1: get rid of that regime, realized it was a lot

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Speaker 1: harder than your thought. So on that upbeat note, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna sneak in a break here, and when we come back,

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk about more geopolitical problems around the world,

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Speaker 1: but this one China and Taiwan. But this is I mean,

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Speaker 1: I really think that unfortunately we are we are in

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Speaker 1: a moment right, NATO is no longer effective as a

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Speaker 1: current organization because if the American president doesn't believe in it.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't matter that he can't technically withdrawal. It is

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Speaker 1: not a functioning organization at the moment if the American

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Speaker 1: President does not is not interested in it. And ask

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Speaker 1: yourself right now what he would do if Estonia was

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Speaker 1: invaded by Russia a NATO ally So he is blown

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Speaker 1: up NATO. He is risking America's essentially leadership, at risk

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Speaker 1: of handing China all sorts of economic and stable relationships

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Speaker 1: with other countries that we were in a contest with China,

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Speaker 1: and Donald Trump made a decision on Iran that puts

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Speaker 1: us on a path to losing that contest with China.

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Speaker 1: All Right, we'll sneak in the break. We'll come back

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Speaker 1: China and Taiwan with Ike Fronman. This episode of the

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Speaker 1: Chuck Podcast is brought to you by Wild Grain. Wild

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Speaker 1: So while we are rightfully focused on what is happening

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Speaker 1: in the Middle East with Iran, we've taken our eyes

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Speaker 1: off the ball in two foreign policy stories. When I

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Speaker 1: say we, the collective, I guess political media have a

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Speaker 1: little bit. One is, of course, the war in Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: and then the other is all is the pivot to Asia.

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Speaker 1: I sort of joke about that. I'm old enough to

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Speaker 1: remember in Obama's second term the pivot to Asia and

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Speaker 1: even the first Trump administration realizing, yeah, you know, the

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Speaker 1: whole point of being energy independent was to then confront

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Speaker 1: China and the pivot to Asia. We have, I think

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Speaker 1: still waiting for that pivot. But my next guest has

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Speaker 1: a book on a topic. As you know, I've been

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Speaker 1: covering it, probably a bit more than your average political

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Speaker 1: podcaster has covered, which is the issue of Taiwan and

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Speaker 1: the fact that twenty twenty seven, which was a marker

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Speaker 1: that the Chinese had sort of set as sort of

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Speaker 1: the is sort of when she wanted the Chinese military

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Speaker 1: to be prepared to take Taiwan by force if necessary,

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Speaker 1: is suddenly getting a lot closer. Right, object, the object

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Speaker 1: in this mirror is quite close now, being twenty twenty seven.

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Speaker 1: So the question is where's this going, where's this headed?

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Speaker 1: And given what's been, what we're still experiencing, what the

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Speaker 1: war in Ukraine, what frankly the United States has gotten

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Speaker 1: itself into when it comes to Iran, is this mean

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Speaker 1: for Taiwan? Well, my guess is Ike Freiman. He is

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Speaker 1: the authors from of a new book called Defending Taiwan,

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Speaker 1: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, And he joins me, Now, Ike,

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Speaker 1: it is nice to meet.

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Speaker 2: You, Crazy meets you, Chuck. It's a pleasure to be

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Speaker 2: on the show.

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Speaker 1: So let's start with the premise of your book. When

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Speaker 1: you say defending Taiwan and a strategy. Is this a

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Speaker 1: diplomatic strategy that you that you want to outline, A

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Speaker 1: military strategy, a strategy of deterrence, a strategy to uh

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Speaker 1: to eventually recognize independence for Taiwan? What is it?

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Speaker 2: This is a strategy to prevent a devastating war with China,

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Speaker 2: something that I think should be a goal uniting Democrats, Republicans,

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Speaker 2: everyone in between, and a strategy to preserve an honorable

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Speaker 2: piece in the Taiwan Straight but also in the region

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Speaker 2: as a whole. Something we can get into on this

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Speaker 2: show is that Taiwan's fate is just connected to the

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Speaker 2: fate of the broader region. The United States does not

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Speaker 2: support Taiwan independence. We have a long standing one China policy.

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Speaker 2: It's decades old. It served us well, it's helped to

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Speaker 2: deter war in the past.

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Speaker 1: I appreciate you saying that we've had a couple of

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Speaker 1: presidents who seem to utter some sentences that put that

429
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 1: policy in question. I mean, Joe Biden said some things

430
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 1: out loud that no American president had said when it

431
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,400
Speaker 1: came to promising support for Taiwan.

432
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 2: That's true, and the one China policy is funny. It's

433
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 2: a bit like a magic incantation because we talk a

434
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:43,480
Speaker 2: lot about it, but the substance of it is sort

435
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 2: of always shifting and evolving. But that's okay, because there

436
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 2: really is no such thing as a status quo in

437
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 2: the Taiwan Straight There never has been. There's a military balance,

438
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 2: there's a diplomatic balance. The idea of the One China

439
00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:00,399
Speaker 2: policy is that on the whole, we support peace and

440
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 2: stability in this region. We don't take a position as

441
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 2: to how Taiwan's status is ultimately decided. That's something for

442
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:13,439
Speaker 2: Taiwan and for Beijing to work out by themselves. But

443
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:16,919
Speaker 2: we don't want that to be resolved by force or

444
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 2: by coercion. And especially since Taiwan has become a democracy,

445
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 2: we want it to be democratically acceptable to the people

446
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 2: of Taiwan. Why because Taiwan's fate, for reasons of geography

447
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:30,639
Speaker 2: and a whole lot else, is just tied up to

448
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:35,159
Speaker 2: the fate of our treaty allies Japan, South Korea, Australia

449
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 2: and beyond. And there's no way to prevent catastrophic, cascading

450
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 2: consequences in this region if Taiwan falls by force or coercion.

451
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 1: You know, whenever great powers shoot themselves in the foot,

452
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 1: it's usually because they have a leader who's obsessed with

453
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 1: an historic wrong in their mind right. It is not

454
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 1: usually about the current situation. Take Putin with Ukraine. He

455
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 1: just believes, Nope, Ukraine is not a country, it's part

456
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 1: of Russia. And I get the same sense from Shi

457
00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 1: right that he views right. You even say this that

458
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 1: Thai you label that taiwants. He sees it as a

459
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 1: lynchpin to what you call national rejuvenation. Yeah, which means

460
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 1: it's an ideological obsession, right of the leaders. But what

461
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 1: is it other Why do they take aside pride history?

462
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 1: And maybe that is the strongest reasoning that they want

463
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 1: what's the practical reason that they want this so bad?

464
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 2: It's a great question. This is how we should start. So,

465
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 2: as you say, Taiwan is the unfinished business of the

466
00:29:56,280 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 2: Chinese Civil War, and especially since Taiwan has democratized, since

467
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 2: Taiwan has become this staggering success of one of the

468
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 2: most open and prosperous and technologically advanced societies on Earth,

469
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 2: having it across the strait is a bit uncomfortable for

470
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 2: the Chinese Communist Party, right, because it's a living, breathing

471
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 2: example of what another China could have looked like, a

472
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 2: China that is both wealthier and more technologically advanced and

473
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 2: accepted in the international community and free. So that's understandable,

474
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 2: and season Ping is deeply invested in this issue, but

475
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:40,959
Speaker 2: so were his predecessors. And you know, to study the

476
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:44,600
Speaker 2: history of this issue is to see that going back

477
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 2: all the way to Mao, Chinese leaders have lusted after

478
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 2: this prize and they have turned it into a domestic

479
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 2: propaganda object. So the thing to understand, though, is that

480
00:30:56,880 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 2: from the very beginning it has always been entwined with

481
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 2: relations with the United States. When the Communists took over

482
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 2: the mainland in the fall of nineteen forty nine, Now

483
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 2: immediately gave his general's instructions to plan an invasion of Taiwan,

484
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 2: and they looked into what an amphibious operation would look like,

485
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 2: and they decided can't be done because the island's geography

486
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 2: is just extremely difficult. And they've been working on that

487
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 2: problem for seventy years and I think they're not satisfied yet,

488
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 2: but they're getting closer. Why does it matter. The first

489
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 2: reason is geography. So Taiwan is a link in the

490
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 2: First Island Chain, an archipelago that goes from Japan actually

491
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 2: starting in the Russian Curl Islands all the way down

492
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 2: into the South China Sea, and you sort of have

493
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 2: to look at a topographic map because in between those islands,

494
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 2: the Sea is often so shallow that you can't navigate through,

495
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 2: So there's only a few choke points in between these

496
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 2: islands that you can actually navigate through. And that means

497
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 2: China's navy, which is now the world's largest in fleets,

498
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 2: is like a burd in a cage. They're trapped in

499
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 2: these little inland seas, the Yellow Sea, the East China See,

500
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 2: the South chinnes See, and they want to burst out

501
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 2: into the wider waters of the Western Pacific to project

502
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 2: power globally, but they can't do it as long as

503
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 2: the US has allies and partners all astride that island chain.

504
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 2: So that's the first reason. A second reason is the

505
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 2: semiconductor of fabrication facilities on Taiwan. And then the third

506
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 2: reason is the role that Taiwan plays in the regional

507
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 2: economic order, and the way that Taiwan might fall would

508
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 2: set a precedent for China's ability to use economic coercion

509
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:39,760
Speaker 2: against other countries in the region. And you put these

510
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 2: all together, and you see, if they can get this,

511
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 2: all of the dominoes fall and they can achieve national

512
00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 2: rejuvenation pretty quick.

513
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 1: Okay, I mean, I hear the case, but it still

514
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 1: feels more ideological and caught up in history books, and

515
00:32:56,000 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 1: it really is kind of mean. Taiwan's no threat to China.

516
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:06,479
Speaker 1: China's built this massive economy. China is probably going to

517
00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 1: catch up in the chip space we see. You know,

518
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 1: you know what is a necessity is the mother of

519
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 1: all invention, right, they have to innovate here. So this

520
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 1: still feels like a vanity project more than an actual

521
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 1: strategic necessity.

522
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:29,479
Speaker 2: So I think the overall point that it's nice to have,

523
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 2: not need to have, is right. And I end the

524
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 2: book with vignette of the last time I was in

525
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 2: Beijing in twenty twenty three, where I went to the

526
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 2: National Museum in Tieneman Square, and I went to this

527
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 2: exhibit in the museum called Roads Rejuvenation, which tracks the

528
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 2: century of Humiliation and then the Party's rise and rule

529
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 2: and season. Pain is obsessed with this exhibit. One of

530
00:33:57,880 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 2: the first things he did after taking power in twenty twelve,

531
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 2: he took the whole polyp for standing committee there and

532
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 2: he said, this exhibit records our history and are present

533
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 2: and we're going to write the next chapter together. And

534
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:11,280
Speaker 2: then he added in twenty eighteen, this glitzy new annex

535
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 2: to celebrate his achievements in the so called New Era.

536
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 2: And it's kind of interesting because the museum is packed

537
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:23,239
Speaker 2: with tourists from all over China and this exhibit the

538
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:27,720
Speaker 2: museum is, this exhibit is not It's empty, completely empty.

539
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 2: I was there alone for two hours, and you can

540
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,800
Speaker 2: see the scope of his ambition. Military stuff is clearly

541
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 2: part of it, but there's also a whole wall devoted

542
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:40,280
Speaker 2: to ethnic minorities where he's smiling serenely as the harmonized

543
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 2: ethnic minorities sing and dance. And there's another about how

544
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 2: China is going green with green mountains and electric vehicles.

545
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 2: And there's another of him, you know, cheering athletes at

546
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 2: the Olympics, and you see that national rejuvenation is about

547
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 2: putting China at the forefront of literally every human endeavor,

548
00:34:56,920 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 2: literally every human endeavor. It's about getting rich techn logically advanced, green, harmonious,

549
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 2: culturally advanced, and so Taiwan is the lynchment of that arch.

550
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:08,320
Speaker 2: But if he rolls the iron dice, he has a

551
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:12,399
Speaker 2: whole lot to lose. And the that's the double edged

552
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 2: sword of his ambition, and that is ultimately why he

553
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 2: is deterable. But you have to show him that if

554
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 2: he messes up over Taiwan, he could put the whole

555
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:21,759
Speaker 2: project in jeopardy.

556
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:26,360
Speaker 1: Well, this, let's get to deterrence here. I am. I

557
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 1: am a real pessimist when it comes to Taiwan because

558
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 1: I think that if I and this is where I'm

559
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 1: not going to pretend I'm an expert in how how

560
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 1: Chinese communist policy decision making comes. But if you're just

561
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 1: doing game theory in your China and you look at

562
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:56,319
Speaker 1: the current geopolitical situation, you're never going to probably have

563
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:59,399
Speaker 1: a more pliant American president than the one you have now.

564
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,759
Speaker 1: The United States is stretched right now financially and militarily,

565
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:10,439
Speaker 1: particularly we're seeing it in the Middleast where suddenly we're

566
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:12,360
Speaker 1: going to end up not being able to sell certain

567
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: things to Ukraine because we need it for the war

568
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 1: with Iran. And if there's ever a time to do it,

569
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 1: it's probably while Trump's still president in this current situation,

570
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 1: especially since now the appetite with the American public, you know,

571
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:38,720
Speaker 1: whatever whatever anti China sentiment one can use to rally

572
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:43,760
Speaker 1: the rally Americans around the flag is a lot harder

573
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 1: already due to the unpopularity of this war with Iran right,

574
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:51,280
Speaker 1: And you know, I sort of I have always wondered

575
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:54,359
Speaker 1: in my head, boy, is it how do you sell

576
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 1: the American public on defending this island halfway around the

577
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:04,279
Speaker 1: globe right, that American blood and treasure should be used

578
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 1: to defend this on I think it's just very difficult,

579
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 1: just in the current moment we're in, the lack of

580
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 1: credibility American political institutions have with the average voter these days,

581
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:16,840
Speaker 1: so you're just going to have a lot of skepticism.

582
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 1: You know, how the Chinese think better than I do.

583
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 1: You're the expert here, Am I off? Am? I am

584
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:27,360
Speaker 1: I overthinking? This? Is this not how the Chinese are thinking.

585
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:29,920
Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of truth in what you say,

586
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:35,719
Speaker 2: but I don't fully agree. I fully agree that the

587
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:40,240
Speaker 2: remainder of Trump's term is a uniquely tempting moment because

588
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:45,360
Speaker 2: Trump is so transactional, because he doesn't think strategically.

589
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:47,920
Speaker 1: Look, the Chinese think they may may be able to

590
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 1: get our defense of Taiwan as part of the trade negotiation.

591
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:57,240
Speaker 2: Absolutely, so there's there's everything rolled it out. There's every

592
00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 2: reason for them to try to see what they can

593
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 2: get out of Trump. At the negotiating table and then

594
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:07,440
Speaker 2: failing that, to squeeze him and see what he gives up.

595
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:13,279
Speaker 2: And I think when we talk about dates, we need

596
00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 2: to recognize it's not a question of whether China does

597
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 2: it or doesn't. They are already doing it. They are

598
00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:24,000
Speaker 2: squeezing Taiwan right now.

599
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:26,280
Speaker 1: It's a coersion right now every direction.

600
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:30,960
Speaker 2: It's the Boa constrictor strategy, using every tool of their

601
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 2: national power, Squeezing Taiwanese airlines to list themselves as Chinese

602
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:38,840
Speaker 2: on their websites, you know, pressuring third countries to extradite

603
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 2: Taiwanese nationals to Taiwan to China for trial. You know,

604
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 2: establishing a like a near permanent presence of drones and

605
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:50,440
Speaker 2: other stuff all around the airspace and waters around Taiwan.

606
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:53,520
Speaker 1: Getting other countries that had diplomatic relations with Taiwan to

607
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:55,880
Speaker 1: drop it. Yeah, and they've coerced a few to do

608
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:56,800
Speaker 1: that exactly.

609
00:38:56,920 --> 00:39:01,839
Speaker 2: So the question becomes, I think their plan A is

610
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 2: just squeeze Taiwan to death, or squeeze Taiwan to the

611
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 2: point where it like Hong Kong realizes no one the

612
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:10,839
Speaker 2: cavalry isn't coming. We just have to negotiate and then

613
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:12,720
Speaker 2: we signed some piece. They signed some piece of paper

614
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 2: that says one country, two systems, Taiwan version. And then

615
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:18,920
Speaker 2: she's in pin Declare's victory. And that's that's the Hong

616
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 2: Kong model. And that's a lot more attractive than rolling

617
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:24,240
Speaker 2: the dice on an invasion, which, as Russia showed in Ukraine,

618
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:24,799
Speaker 2: could go wrong.

619
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:25,399
Speaker 1: Right.

620
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:32,560
Speaker 2: But here's the thing, China has a political calendar too.

621
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 2: Twenty twenty seven is a Party Congress year. And remember

622
00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:43,480
Speaker 2: the last Party Congress year. Granted it was COVID, but

623
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 2: it was also COVID was over everywhere in the world.

624
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 2: Season paining locked everyone in their house for a year.

625
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 1: It took advantage of it for another.

626
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:52,720
Speaker 2: That's how paranoid he was going into the last Party

627
00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 2: Congress to get his third term. So now he's going

628
00:39:56,520 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 2: up for a fourth term. He's completely cleared out the

629
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:04,400
Speaker 2: top brass in the People's Liberation Army. I mean, do

630
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:06,800
Speaker 2: you really think there aren't more purges coming?

631
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 1: Well? What do we how should we read these purges?

632
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I thought, I think look as usual, right,

633
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 1: you know, we Americans, our American political leaders are just

634
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:23,040
Speaker 1: terrible at putting ourselves in somebody else's shoes, whether it

635
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:27,320
Speaker 1: was Bush looking into the soul of Putin or Biden

636
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 1: and his friendship as when she was vice Premier, and

637
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 1: frankly the wrong assumptions he made about the related personal

638
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:40,319
Speaker 1: relationship he had developed with him. I think there's been

639
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 1: a there's just been massive miscalculations on the American side

640
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 1: of things when it comes to both Putin and she.

641
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:53,400
Speaker 1: She's a much she's got a much bigger appetite, I think,

642
00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:55,440
Speaker 1: at least in his head. Then I think a lot

643
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 1: of us thought and I don't think we view Chinese

644
00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:00,919
Speaker 1: leaders in the same way we Viewedrussian leaders, I guess

645
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 1: whatever it is, or we just we assumed there'd be

646
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:09,399
Speaker 1: pragmatism and transactionalism, because for the most part that's how

647
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 1: the Chinese have behaved diplomatically around the world. They're very

648
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 1: transaction and so I think that is probably given us

649
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 1: false hope. But internally she's behaving like a paranoid dictator.

650
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:26,360
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, he's not a man who's given a

651
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 2: whole lot of interviews, So in his in his biography,

652
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 2: you can read the tea leaves and come up with

653
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 2: your own psychoanalytical profile.

654
00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, we seem like we don't know much about him,

655
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:37,800
Speaker 1: but we don't.

656
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 2: But we do know that when he was I mean,

657
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 2: Joseph Turisian, my former Hoover colleague, is a wonderful biography

658
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:45,600
Speaker 2: of his father.

659
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 1: Yes, I've had I've interviewed him for this page for

660
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 1: the same reason because I'm obsessed with trying to learn

661
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:56,440
Speaker 1: more about she. And it's interesting that it was easier

662
00:41:56,440 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 1: to write a book about his father.

663
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:00,719
Speaker 2: It is about him, and those have went to all

664
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 2: of these former archives in the post Soviet world. But

665
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,359
Speaker 2: what you see is a portrait of a young man

666
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 2: who was raised as much of a princeling as a

667
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:15,880
Speaker 2: princeling can be, and he has everything ripped away from him.

668
00:42:16,280 --> 00:42:18,960
Speaker 2: He is everything ripped away, and he's sent down to

669
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 2: the countryside to be re educated by pig farmers, and

670
00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:26,400
Speaker 2: his education is disrupted, so he has to get essentially

671
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 2: fake degrees later on, and his sister kills herself because

672
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:34,920
Speaker 2: of the harassment. This is a deeply traumatic moment, and

673
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 2: his conclusion is he's going to join the party become

674
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:45,239
Speaker 2: redder than red. But it's a deeply traumatic experience in

675
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:48,080
Speaker 2: his young life which shows him that no matter how

676
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:53,200
Speaker 2: much security and status and fame you have, it can

677
00:42:53,239 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 2: come apart very quickly. And I think what we know

678
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 2: about him, Kevin Rudd, the former Australian Prime Minister, speaks

679
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 2: beautiful and has spent time with him. Rudercalls in his book,

680
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:06,040
Speaker 2: you know, sitting with Season Ping by a bonfire and

681
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 2: talking with him about the world and just being taken

682
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 2: by how afraid he is of color revolutions and all

683
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:13,799
Speaker 2: these things that could tear China apart. So I think

684
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 2: if your Season Ping and you look at this Taiwan question,

685
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 2: you're deeply skeptical about your forces when your generals say no,

686
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:27,640
Speaker 2: we can do this, I think I think you look

687
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:29,680
Speaker 2: at this and you say, there's a whole lot of

688
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:32,399
Speaker 2: ways that this could go wrong, that the Americans could

689
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 2: use this issue against me, And I think you are

690
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 2: not in a hurry. I think he does want to

691
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 2: be the guy who gets it done, but I think

692
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 2: he's very happy to do this through a diplomatic solution

693
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 2: that involves signing a piece of paper that allows him

694
00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:53,040
Speaker 2: to declare victory and then kicking the reintegration or whatever

695
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:56,520
Speaker 2: to his successor. This is the thing about national rejuvenation, right,

696
00:43:56,719 --> 00:44:00,200
Speaker 2: It's a wonderful goal to set because the dead line

697
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:03,239
Speaker 2: is twenty forty nine, when he'll be ninety six years old,

698
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 2: so he can claim credit for it all. But if

699
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:09,319
Speaker 2: there's anything that's not quite many loose ends that aren't

700
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 2: quite wrapped up, he can pass in his successor with

701
00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 2: no loss of face. And I think that's important. He

702
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:17,279
Speaker 2: hasn't tied his hands here. If you go into the

703
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 2: National Museum, it's not like he's saving a wall or

704
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 2: a trophy case in the exhibit for Taiwan. There's just

705
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:25,240
Speaker 2: not a mention of Taiwan.

706
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:31,359
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Speaker 1: And yes, I too, am a customer. Let's talk about

735
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 1: the purge of the military leaders because That's another thing.

736
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:15,880
Speaker 1: What is that tell us about our own intelligence capabilities

737
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 1: inside the Chinese government? We we the frankly the West

738
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:24,000
Speaker 1: in general, Western intelligence agencies, And look, I have my

739
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:27,920
Speaker 1: own concerns about the quality of intelligence right now because

740
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:30,360
Speaker 1: for a variety of reasons, we have an American president

741
00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:32,880
Speaker 1: who doesn't trust the IC. You probably have rank and

742
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 1: file i C members that don't trust the leaders. You

743
00:46:35,560 --> 00:46:37,440
Speaker 1: also have other countries not wanting to share with the

744
00:46:37,520 --> 00:46:40,080
Speaker 1: US anymore because of this. I mean, there's a there's

745
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 1: sort of a cascade of reasons why we may be

746
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:48,439
Speaker 1: we may we may have bigger problems with our own

747
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 1: intelligence apparatus than we've had in quite some time. But

748
00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:58,200
Speaker 1: it feels like we're not alone in not fully realizing

749
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 1: how that this purge was possible. I mean, one of

750
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:07,120
Speaker 1: his closest allies, right, one of his longest relationships, but

751
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 1: I think, both politically and personally, was part of this purge.

752
00:47:11,040 --> 00:47:13,200
Speaker 1: What's spot I mean, is it just all paranoia? Is

753
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:17,200
Speaker 1: it disappointment in the military. Is it a concern he

754
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:19,919
Speaker 1: didn't have enough control over the PLA?

755
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 2: So unfortunately I don't know the answer to you.

756
00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:25,799
Speaker 1: Well, we just talked about we have no intelligence.

757
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:30,360
Speaker 2: We have no intelligence. I'm his open source right, but

758
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:33,360
Speaker 2: based on the open source, we have no idea. And

759
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:37,160
Speaker 2: I think anyone who has confidence that it's one way

760
00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:41,399
Speaker 2: or the other on Taiwan is just pitching it op

761
00:47:41,520 --> 00:47:47,239
Speaker 2: ed because you can spin the story either way. So

762
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 2: we don't know why he did it, but we can

763
00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:52,319
Speaker 2: say something about the situation now that he has done it.

764
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:56,880
Speaker 2: Now that he has done it, he's in full control

765
00:47:56,920 --> 00:48:00,799
Speaker 2: of the PLA. How do you know, Well, look at

766
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:03,800
Speaker 2: the ORG chart. There's more empty chairs than full chairs.

767
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:08,520
Speaker 2: So he's now running the show. What he doesn't have

768
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:12,640
Speaker 2: yet is a new cast of hand picked characters who

769
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:15,879
Speaker 2: will carry out his wishes. Now we don't know why

770
00:48:15,920 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 2: he did it, but we do know that it's a

771
00:48:19,680 --> 00:48:23,520
Speaker 2: little strange to start a war, or start a crisis

772
00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 2: that runs a high risk of escalation to war if

773
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:30,080
Speaker 2: you don't have military officers at the top that you trust.

774
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:33,719
Speaker 2: I think going into the next Party Congress, he has

775
00:48:33,719 --> 00:48:36,040
Speaker 2: some big decisions to make, not just about the PLA,

776
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:41,800
Speaker 2: but about succession. So far, he has raised a couple

777
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:46,319
Speaker 2: of or allowed rumors to brew about a couple of

778
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:49,239
Speaker 2: bright young things.

779
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:50,719
Speaker 1: Like travel their version of travels, aren't they?

780
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, And then he has smacked him down with a hammer.

781
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:56,480
Speaker 2: So the lesson has become the last thing you want

782
00:48:56,520 --> 00:48:59,200
Speaker 2: to be in. The CCP is like rumored to be

783
00:48:59,239 --> 00:48:59,959
Speaker 2: the next in line.

784
00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:02,960
Speaker 1: That's like, that's like today's Republican Party in America.

785
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:05,479
Speaker 2: But yes, something like that, something like that. I wonder

786
00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:09,279
Speaker 2: where we got that from. So so, but seriously, he's

787
00:49:09,320 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 2: not getting any younger. You know, there's all these rumors

788
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 2: about his health. Who knows what's true, right, but he's

789
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:16,919
Speaker 2: either going to go in with a successor in mind,

790
00:49:17,000 --> 00:49:18,880
Speaker 2: or he's going to go in without a successor in mind.

791
00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 2: He's probably going to have more purges he wants to do.

792
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:25,640
Speaker 2: And if he wants to move against Taiwan, why initiate

793
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:30,160
Speaker 2: something that could become an open ended cluster, you know,

794
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 2: his equivalent of the Russia's invasion of Ukraine or are

795
00:49:34,320 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 2: Iron War. When he's got this, you know, he has

796
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:41,880
Speaker 2: to deliver his work report and he wants everyone to clap,

797
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 2: and he wants everything to be controlled. Much more likely,

798
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:47,040
Speaker 2: he gets a statement, gets everyone to sign the statement

799
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:49,760
Speaker 2: that gives him permission to take a harder line on Taiwan,

800
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:51,319
Speaker 2: and then he comes out of in twenty twenty eight

801
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:54,800
Speaker 2: with basically a new mandate. Then Taiwan has elections that spring,

802
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:58,640
Speaker 2: and he's like, Okay, guess what the DPP, the current

803
00:49:58,680 --> 00:50:03,280
Speaker 2: ruling party isn't allowed to win or else? Oh interesting,

804
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 2: I think that's a much more plausible timetable. Trump will

805
00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:09,440
Speaker 2: be a lame duck. We will be in the midst

806
00:50:09,440 --> 00:50:11,920
Speaker 2: of our twenty twenty eight cycle. Who wants a war

807
00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:13,200
Speaker 2: with Taiwan over you?

808
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:16,040
Speaker 1: Twenty Do you see twenty twenty eight actually as the

809
00:50:16,880 --> 00:50:21,480
Speaker 1: moment to move a week er Trump? But Trump's still there,

810
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:24,520
Speaker 1: and in America that is going to be more focused

811
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:27,359
Speaker 1: on its domestic situation than wanting to.

812
00:50:27,800 --> 00:50:32,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, because because if their strategy is the Boa constrictor strategy,

813
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:37,239
Speaker 2: then they're just going to keep doing it and at

814
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:42,720
Speaker 2: some point Taiwan's going to choke unless we intervene. So

815
00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:45,400
Speaker 2: this is the problem with thinking about deterrence as like

816
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:48,359
Speaker 2: we're trying to stop him from doing X. No, He's

817
00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:53,839
Speaker 2: already doing it. So his his threat is you Americans,

818
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:56,560
Speaker 2: It's on you to draw the line right. And when

819
00:50:56,600 --> 00:51:00,719
Speaker 2: you draw the line, the markets, the Nasdak collapses and

820
00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:05,080
Speaker 2: everyone panics, and then you are accepting the consequences of

821
00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:08,040
Speaker 2: holding us to account, but it's really on us.

822
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:11,640
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, I mean, look, this is why Oroan's probably

823
00:51:11,640 --> 00:51:15,440
Speaker 1: playing out as about as well for she's interests as

824
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:20,000
Speaker 1: you could possibly put out. Let me go to the

825
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:24,320
Speaker 1: It seems as if we know how to do deterrence

826
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:30,400
Speaker 1: for kinetic deterrence, right, we will sell arms to Taiwan,

827
00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:34,920
Speaker 1: and we will create new military alliances or call them

828
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:39,720
Speaker 1: diplomatic alliances that are pretty that are quasi military alliance.

829
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:42,440
Speaker 1: As the Quad I think is on its way to becoming,

830
00:51:42,960 --> 00:51:45,160
Speaker 1: you could see how it could become at least as

831
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:49,640
Speaker 1: far as Chinese deterrence a military alliance Japan, Australia, the

832
00:51:49,760 --> 00:51:57,319
Speaker 1: United States, India maybe right, and that's possible. And some

833
00:51:57,360 --> 00:51:59,879
Speaker 1: of this has to do with something that I did

834
00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 1: a couple of years ago at Meet the Press, and

835
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:04,960
Speaker 1: what I know many a think tank has done is

836
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:08,880
Speaker 1: when you do the military wargaming of what would happen

837
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:13,880
Speaker 1: if China invaded Taiwan and we decided to defend Taiwan,

838
00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:18,560
Speaker 1: help aside with Taiwan and help do it that China

839
00:52:18,600 --> 00:52:22,799
Speaker 1: wins that standoff seven times out of ten. When you

840
00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:26,879
Speaker 1: go through these war these wargame exercises, so we seem

841
00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:30,680
Speaker 1: to know what needs to be done. If we got

842
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:34,040
Speaker 1: into an actual kinetic back and forth with China and

843
00:52:34,080 --> 00:52:37,000
Speaker 1: we're trying to fix that, it seems as if we

844
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:40,960
Speaker 1: do not have an effective deterrence strategy to this Boa

845
00:52:41,080 --> 00:52:46,319
Speaker 1: Constrictor strategy, right that this is it's and I don't

846
00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:50,920
Speaker 1: know what deterrence would work. You've got a Taiwanese population

847
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:54,960
Speaker 1: that is the more they flex independence, the more that

848
00:52:55,200 --> 00:52:57,120
Speaker 1: it seems that that's worse for them. You know, there,

849
00:52:58,040 --> 00:53:02,080
Speaker 1: what does deterrence of the Boa Constrictor strategy look?

850
00:53:03,200 --> 00:53:06,600
Speaker 2: Okay, I'm going to agree wholeheartedly with half of your

851
00:53:06,680 --> 00:53:09,920
Speaker 2: question and challenge the premise of the other. Okay, So

852
00:53:10,239 --> 00:53:13,680
Speaker 2: for the last fifty years, really for the last seventy years,

853
00:53:15,360 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 2: we have maintained deterrence. Since Mao first gave his generals

854
00:53:19,080 --> 00:53:22,640
Speaker 2: the instruction to consider the invasion of Taiwan in nineteen fifty,

855
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:27,759
Speaker 2: we have deterred aggression. We have kept the peace in

856
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:29,720
Speaker 2: the region through what we call the strategy of denial,

857
00:53:30,120 --> 00:53:34,040
Speaker 2: which is just showing we're militarily stronger. We don't even

858
00:53:34,120 --> 00:53:36,719
Speaker 2: have to use nukes to do it. If China moves

859
00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:39,319
Speaker 2: against Taiwan, we can defeat their ability to put men

860
00:53:39,400 --> 00:53:40,840
Speaker 2: on the beaches and to take the island.

861
00:53:41,120 --> 00:53:42,880
Speaker 1: Well, that was obvious through two thousand.

862
00:53:43,280 --> 00:53:47,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, So with the wargames that you cite, I wouldn't

863
00:53:47,600 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 2: put any stock at all in those. Basically, wargames are

864
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:53,000
Speaker 2: not crystal balls. They're not simulations of what's going to happen.

865
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:57,239
Speaker 2: They're games to explore what one side or the other

866
00:53:57,360 --> 00:54:00,840
Speaker 2: might do in specific situations and like expand youragination. So

867
00:54:01,320 --> 00:54:04,400
Speaker 2: I recently took part in a war game where I

868
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:07,640
Speaker 2: was playing China and nukes were involved, and like, yeah,

869
00:54:07,880 --> 00:54:12,800
Speaker 2: nukes to make them realistic. But you know, there's a

870
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:14,920
Speaker 2: whole lot of assumptions. You say we want to do

871
00:54:15,360 --> 00:54:17,560
Speaker 2: and you know, shoot the shoot at the following ships

872
00:54:17,560 --> 00:54:19,719
Speaker 2: and you either sink them or you don't. But that's

873
00:54:19,800 --> 00:54:23,279
Speaker 2: just a computer model in the best case. Uh. As

874
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:25,719
Speaker 2: far as I understand, my last book was called The

875
00:54:25,800 --> 00:54:29,840
Speaker 2: Arsenal of Democracy, was about the specific military and military

876
00:54:29,880 --> 00:54:33,040
Speaker 2: industrial parts of this. My best understanding is that if

877
00:54:33,040 --> 00:54:36,080
Speaker 2: we fought China today a high intensity war in the

878
00:54:36,120 --> 00:54:40,400
Speaker 2: Western Pacific, it would be nasty, thousands of Americans would die,

879
00:54:40,760 --> 00:54:43,160
Speaker 2: but within a matter of days to a couple of weeks.

880
00:54:44,120 --> 00:54:46,600
Speaker 2: Pretty much all of the PLA Navy would be at

881
00:54:46,640 --> 00:54:49,160
Speaker 2: the bottom of the Taiwan Straight, most of their air

882
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:53,120
Speaker 2: force would be obliterated. We would essentially maritime wars, aaron

883
00:54:53,200 --> 00:54:55,760
Speaker 2: naval wars, the kind we haven't fought for eighty years.

884
00:54:55,800 --> 00:54:59,160
Speaker 2: They work fundamentally differently from land wars. It's not about

885
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:02,359
Speaker 2: attrition and holding back reserves. It's just about who can

886
00:55:02,400 --> 00:55:05,839
Speaker 2: deliver the hardest, most effective opening punch. And a lot

887
00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:08,240
Speaker 2: of that has to do with cyber and electronic warfare

888
00:55:08,280 --> 00:55:11,279
Speaker 2: and other classified stuff that allows you to fry the

889
00:55:11,320 --> 00:55:15,960
Speaker 2: other guy's eyes and ears, and we have various advantages

890
00:55:16,000 --> 00:55:20,720
Speaker 2: in those capabilities, which are super classified. The balance is tilting.

891
00:55:21,680 --> 00:55:23,279
Speaker 2: It's not as much of a sure bet as it

892
00:55:23,360 --> 00:55:25,879
Speaker 2: was before, but I think it's safe to say if

893
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:28,200
Speaker 2: China thought they could defeat us in a high end

894
00:55:28,200 --> 00:55:33,480
Speaker 2: conventional war, our problems would go way beyond Taiwan. It

895
00:55:33,480 --> 00:55:36,239
Speaker 2: would be about the defense of Japan and the Philippines

896
00:55:36,320 --> 00:55:39,400
Speaker 2: and South Korea and Australia and Guam and Hawaii, and

897
00:55:39,520 --> 00:55:41,680
Speaker 2: China would be acting in a much less cautious and

898
00:55:41,719 --> 00:55:47,799
Speaker 2: restrained way. However, as you say, China doesn't necessarily have

899
00:55:47,840 --> 00:55:50,400
Speaker 2: to think they could win that war if they're confident

900
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:54,399
Speaker 2: that they can keep the contest in a crisis short

901
00:55:54,440 --> 00:55:57,960
Speaker 2: of war. And this is your question about how to

902
00:55:58,000 --> 00:56:01,160
Speaker 2: deter the gray zone strategy. I think the basic idea

903
00:56:01,239 --> 00:56:03,479
Speaker 2: should be we need to show we're going to push

904
00:56:03,520 --> 00:56:09,680
Speaker 2: back proportionally to maintain an overall stable situation. And that's

905
00:56:09,719 --> 00:56:15,280
Speaker 2: tricky because let's say they have thousands of fishing vessels,

906
00:56:15,640 --> 00:56:18,960
Speaker 2: civilian fishing vessels which are paramilitary trained by the PLA,

907
00:56:19,239 --> 00:56:22,000
Speaker 2: that are hanging out around Taiwan harassing shipping. We're not

908
00:56:22,040 --> 00:56:25,239
Speaker 2: going to do the same thing to China. So we

909
00:56:24,719 --> 00:56:28,240
Speaker 2: need we need to stabilize the situation in another domain.

910
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:32,360
Speaker 2: And it's tricky to establish, like what is proportional, But basically,

911
00:56:33,200 --> 00:56:36,480
Speaker 2: according to these age old traditions, we don't have like

912
00:56:36,520 --> 00:56:39,760
Speaker 2: an explicit military to military relationship with Taiwan, Like certain

913
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:42,440
Speaker 2: levels of senior US officials aren't supposed to go to Taiwan.

914
00:56:43,560 --> 00:56:48,680
Speaker 2: And as China has proceeded with this boa constrictive strategy

915
00:56:48,800 --> 00:56:52,440
Speaker 2: we have, it has been disclosed sent more trainers to

916
00:56:52,520 --> 00:56:56,399
Speaker 2: Taiwan to help them develop their forces and that kind

917
00:56:56,440 --> 00:57:00,359
Speaker 2: of thing pushing back in another domain to help tie one,

918
00:57:00,960 --> 00:57:04,280
Speaker 2: defend itself, improve the confidence of the people of Taiwan.

919
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:06,279
Speaker 2: That's kind of the best we can do. And there's

920
00:57:06,280 --> 00:57:08,839
Speaker 2: a whole bunch of stuff we can do. Energy partnerships,

921
00:57:08,880 --> 00:57:12,520
Speaker 2: technology partnerships, giving visas to Taiwanese, more direct flights. There's

922
00:57:12,520 --> 00:57:14,239
Speaker 2: a whole lot of stuff that we can do that

923
00:57:14,320 --> 00:57:17,160
Speaker 2: can stabilize an overall balance. But we have to threaten China.

924
00:57:17,200 --> 00:57:19,560
Speaker 2: If you push harder in the gray zone, we will

925
00:57:19,600 --> 00:57:20,400
Speaker 2: push harder.

926
00:57:20,120 --> 00:57:27,479
Speaker 1: To the Let's talk about Taiwan's domestic politics here, because

927
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:32,520
Speaker 1: there's not Look just like Russia did with Ukraine starting

928
00:57:32,520 --> 00:57:35,280
Speaker 1: fifteen years ago, you know, Russia was trying to win

929
00:57:35,280 --> 00:57:38,440
Speaker 1: it at the ballot box, right, They were basically trying

930
00:57:38,480 --> 00:57:46,680
Speaker 1: to trying to win find compliant leaders that would want

931
00:57:46,680 --> 00:57:50,320
Speaker 1: to stay in the sphere of Russia's influence. And then

932
00:57:50,360 --> 00:57:52,800
Speaker 1: when they gave, when they frankly, you know, took a

933
00:57:52,880 --> 00:57:56,040
Speaker 1: couple of losses there for them to decide, all right,

934
00:57:56,080 --> 00:57:57,640
Speaker 1: we can't do this this way. We're going to now

935
00:57:57,640 --> 00:58:01,120
Speaker 1: try it the other way. I think China still thinks

936
00:58:01,120 --> 00:58:05,640
Speaker 1: they can win this. When a PR campaign in Taiwan.

937
00:58:06,840 --> 00:58:09,960
Speaker 2: Is that what you think, absolutely, and I think that's

938
00:58:10,000 --> 00:58:11,200
Speaker 2: another reason not to invade.

939
00:58:12,760 --> 00:58:15,200
Speaker 1: Right, So if you look at the surveys invade, you

940
00:58:15,240 --> 00:58:17,640
Speaker 1: harden the opposition. I mean, Ukraine's never going to be

941
00:58:17,640 --> 00:58:20,720
Speaker 1: in Russia's sphere of influence in our lifetimes, exactly right,

942
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:23,640
Speaker 1: exactly too many Ukrainians. Do you think they're angry now?

943
00:58:24,080 --> 00:58:25,439
Speaker 1: And do you think they were angry at the start

944
00:58:25,440 --> 00:58:25,840
Speaker 1: of this war?

945
00:58:26,240 --> 00:58:29,200
Speaker 2: And this raises a really important point about public opinion

946
00:58:29,840 --> 00:58:32,360
Speaker 2: that is missed in surveys. That gets back to the

947
00:58:32,360 --> 00:58:35,800
Speaker 2: point you asked earlier about why would the American people

948
00:58:36,160 --> 00:58:38,920
Speaker 2: go for this? Why would an American president go for this?

949
00:58:39,080 --> 00:58:42,360
Speaker 2: And the answer I'm a historian, so I think about

950
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:45,840
Speaker 2: these things is sort of path dependencies. That's why I'm trained.

951
00:58:46,360 --> 00:58:48,160
Speaker 2: But when you look at the history as of great

952
00:58:48,200 --> 00:58:50,280
Speaker 2: power of wars or even great power crises like the

953
00:58:50,360 --> 00:58:52,840
Speaker 2: Cuban missile crisis, these things do not fall out of

954
00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:57,320
Speaker 2: the clear blue sky. They emerge over the course of years,

955
00:58:57,600 --> 00:59:01,520
Speaker 2: then months, then weeks, through a path dependent arc where

956
00:59:01,560 --> 00:59:03,800
Speaker 2: someone does this, and then we do that, and then

957
00:59:03,840 --> 00:59:05,600
Speaker 2: they do this, and then we do that, and we

958
00:59:05,640 --> 00:59:09,040
Speaker 2: put reputational capital on the line saying hey, publicly don't

959
00:59:09,080 --> 00:59:12,720
Speaker 2: do this or else, and then by the time it's

960
00:59:12,720 --> 00:59:16,360
Speaker 2: time for choosing, we have skin in the game and

961
00:59:16,480 --> 00:59:19,760
Speaker 2: backing down means something totally different than it did at

962
00:59:19,760 --> 00:59:21,640
Speaker 2: the beginning, and maybe we choose to back down, but

963
00:59:21,680 --> 00:59:25,080
Speaker 2: we have chips on the table now. And that is

964
00:59:25,120 --> 00:59:28,480
Speaker 2: why I can't think of an example in American history

965
00:59:28,760 --> 00:59:31,400
Speaker 2: where a president has decided, for reasons of strategy, we

966
00:59:31,440 --> 00:59:33,160
Speaker 2: need to go to war or we need to go

967
00:59:33,160 --> 00:59:35,360
Speaker 2: to the brink of war, and the American public hasn't

968
00:59:35,400 --> 00:59:39,240
Speaker 2: come along. This Iran war may actually be the first time.

969
00:59:39,320 --> 00:59:43,919
Speaker 1: This is the first time where an American president's initial

970
00:59:44,120 --> 00:59:51,960
Speaker 1: military success was not greeted with a decisive approval from

971
00:59:52,000 --> 00:59:54,760
Speaker 1: the American public. But this was also unusual in the

972
00:59:54,880 --> 00:59:57,720
Speaker 1: first three days, but he speed.

973
00:59:57,600 --> 00:59:59,680
Speaker 2: He never gave an Oval Office address to the American

974
00:59:59,680 --> 01:00:03,720
Speaker 2: people saying hey, listen, like I know this is people

975
01:00:03,760 --> 01:00:06,760
Speaker 2: don't want this. Here's my reasoning. He still hasn't even

976
01:00:06,840 --> 01:00:09,840
Speaker 2: articulated what we're fighting for, what the warriams are. I

977
01:00:09,920 --> 01:00:13,160
Speaker 2: think at Taiwan situation would be different. A Taiwan situation,

978
01:00:14,200 --> 01:00:17,200
Speaker 2: China would China would push, and it might be the

979
01:00:17,240 --> 01:00:21,960
Speaker 2: case that either Taiwan's morale implodes or our morale implodes,

980
01:00:22,240 --> 01:00:25,080
Speaker 2: or both, and then Taiwan just gets China gets the

981
01:00:25,080 --> 01:00:29,760
Speaker 2: prize of that fighting. That's possible, but I think equally possible,

982
01:00:29,960 --> 01:00:33,640
Speaker 2: in fact, probably base case, if China starts squeezing Taiwan,

983
01:00:34,480 --> 01:00:38,480
Speaker 2: we do posturing to try to make them stop, and

984
01:00:38,520 --> 01:00:40,080
Speaker 2: then they do a little more, and we do a

985
01:00:40,080 --> 01:00:41,680
Speaker 2: little more, and we do a little more, and they

986
01:00:41,720 --> 01:00:44,520
Speaker 2: maybe mobilize their forces on their side of the strait

987
01:00:44,920 --> 01:00:48,720
Speaker 2: or start doing economic coercion, and we start surging ships

988
01:00:48,720 --> 01:00:52,760
Speaker 2: to the region, and you know, the market starts getting nervous,

989
01:00:53,320 --> 01:00:55,760
Speaker 2: and then by the time we actually get to the

990
01:00:56,040 --> 01:00:58,640
Speaker 2: to the precipice, it's a completely different situation.

991
01:01:00,280 --> 01:01:10,040
Speaker 1: HM. The other thing that I fear is about to

992
01:01:10,080 --> 01:01:15,400
Speaker 1: happen with for those that want Taiwan independence is that

993
01:01:15,960 --> 01:01:22,400
Speaker 1: they flee the country. And given what's happening with uh

994
01:01:23,400 --> 01:01:27,440
Speaker 1: the big chip maker there a t t SMC thank you,

995
01:01:27,760 --> 01:01:30,560
Speaker 1: I was going to say t CMS and the fact

996
01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:33,080
Speaker 1: that they're basically stuck having to build their business in

997
01:01:33,120 --> 01:01:36,760
Speaker 1: the United States now right something that it's been fascinating

998
01:01:36,760 --> 01:01:39,640
Speaker 1: to watch where it's so clear that company wishes they

999
01:01:39,640 --> 01:01:42,240
Speaker 1: weren't doing this. They're doing this because they feel like

1000
01:01:42,280 --> 01:01:48,000
Speaker 1: they have to, not because they want to. Could the

1001
01:01:48,080 --> 01:01:51,640
Speaker 1: unintended consequence be that those that want to fight just leave,

1002
01:01:52,400 --> 01:01:55,320
Speaker 1: and then those that stay just want to have peace

1003
01:01:55,400 --> 01:01:57,040
Speaker 1: and then become more compliant.

1004
01:01:57,800 --> 01:02:02,800
Speaker 2: Possibly, Uh, But I think it would take a lot

1005
01:02:03,120 --> 01:02:05,560
Speaker 2: to get to the point where all those people leave.

1006
01:02:06,000 --> 01:02:08,480
Speaker 2: You know, there's elites. And when I go to Taipei

1007
01:02:08,640 --> 01:02:11,480
Speaker 2: and I have, you know, friends who are in business,

1008
01:02:11,480 --> 01:02:13,680
Speaker 2: and you know, they're going out to Omakase every night,

1009
01:02:13,720 --> 01:02:16,439
Speaker 2: and like some of them have Canadian citizenship for their kids,

1010
01:02:16,520 --> 01:02:19,919
Speaker 2: and they've got the ski chalet and Switzerland or whatever.

1011
01:02:19,960 --> 01:02:23,320
Speaker 2: And some of these people do exist in Taiwan, but

1012
01:02:24,080 --> 01:02:27,600
Speaker 2: for the most part, ordinary people, they don't have a

1013
01:02:27,600 --> 01:02:30,400
Speaker 2: place to go. They don't have a visa status that

1014
01:02:30,440 --> 01:02:32,320
Speaker 2: allows them to just pick up and go to Japan

1015
01:02:32,400 --> 01:02:35,600
Speaker 2: or Australia or somebod else. And it takes a lot

1016
01:02:35,720 --> 01:02:40,720
Speaker 2: to walk away in abandon your home. And what could

1017
01:02:40,760 --> 01:02:45,160
Speaker 2: happen and what I warnt about in the book, So

1018
01:02:45,240 --> 01:02:48,600
Speaker 2: you mentioned wargames, right, The war games usually start with

1019
01:02:48,760 --> 01:02:52,400
Speaker 2: the wargame I played a couple of weeks ago. It

1020
01:02:52,600 --> 01:02:56,919
Speaker 2: started with you know, in the pre turn US Team

1021
01:02:57,040 --> 01:03:00,680
Speaker 2: China had blown up a US aircraft carrier. So that's

1022
01:03:00,720 --> 01:03:03,640
Speaker 2: like T equals zero, that's like the first turn. But

1023
01:03:03,720 --> 01:03:06,120
Speaker 2: that's not in the real world. How a crisis happens.

1024
01:03:07,960 --> 01:03:12,800
Speaker 2: The crisis starts happening before those first shots. And usually

1025
01:03:12,800 --> 01:03:16,080
Speaker 2: what would happen historically is people would say, well, this

1026
01:03:16,200 --> 01:03:17,920
Speaker 2: is basically a non issue. It's a non issue. It's

1027
01:03:17,920 --> 01:03:20,040
Speaker 2: a non issue until everyone panics at the same time,

1028
01:03:20,760 --> 01:03:23,240
Speaker 2: and then how do you get everyone out of the country,

1029
01:03:23,320 --> 01:03:27,080
Speaker 2: Like we thought that the evacuations from Saigon and Cobble

1030
01:03:27,120 --> 01:03:32,320
Speaker 2: were hard. Try type ay right, right? Taiwan is a

1031
01:03:33,040 --> 01:03:36,560
Speaker 2: is a wealthy, sophisticated democracy with tens of millions of people.

1032
01:03:37,160 --> 01:03:40,439
Speaker 2: There's eight hundred thousand foreigners there right now, including tens

1033
01:03:40,480 --> 01:03:43,840
Speaker 2: of thousands of Americans. We got thousands of Brits, of Japanese,

1034
01:03:43,840 --> 01:03:47,000
Speaker 2: of Germans, of Australians and so on. How do you

1035
01:03:47,000 --> 01:03:51,560
Speaker 2: get all those people out? If I'm China, I want

1036
01:03:51,600 --> 01:03:54,680
Speaker 2: to put the squeeze on to see if the Americans

1037
01:03:54,800 --> 01:03:58,080
Speaker 2: yank their people, because once the foreigners try to pull

1038
01:03:58,120 --> 01:04:00,560
Speaker 2: out their citizens, what is that message say to the

1039
01:04:00,600 --> 01:04:03,800
Speaker 2: people of Taiwan, You're on your own. You're on your own.

1040
01:04:04,560 --> 01:04:06,840
Speaker 1: But doesn't this war not start with a I mean

1041
01:04:06,880 --> 01:04:08,640
Speaker 1: you sort of seem to outline this not with a

1042
01:04:08,800 --> 01:04:12,120
Speaker 1: shot fire, but with essentially a blockade of the island, right,

1043
01:04:12,200 --> 01:04:15,360
Speaker 1: I mean that's the I think the wargame I participated,

1044
01:04:15,360 --> 01:04:17,360
Speaker 1: and that was the beginning, right, And then it got

1045
01:04:17,440 --> 01:04:20,000
Speaker 1: the United States to send military you know that that's

1046
01:04:20,040 --> 01:04:23,600
Speaker 1: what triggered the US military response of then sending a

1047
01:04:23,640 --> 01:04:26,640
Speaker 1: presence to try to break the blockade.

1048
01:04:27,120 --> 01:04:29,760
Speaker 2: I think the blockade is not plan A. I think

1049
01:04:29,800 --> 01:04:33,440
Speaker 2: blockade is planned B for a couple of reasons. First

1050
01:04:33,480 --> 01:04:36,640
Speaker 2: of all, according to the Taiwan Relations Act, if the

1051
01:04:36,640 --> 01:04:38,400
Speaker 2: president wants to ben in Taiwan, the President's going to

1052
01:04:38,440 --> 01:04:41,800
Speaker 2: band in Taiwan. But according to the Taiwan Relations Act

1053
01:04:41,920 --> 01:04:46,920
Speaker 2: and probably eighty percent of Congress, a blockade of Taiwan

1054
01:04:48,040 --> 01:04:53,080
Speaker 2: is tantamount to an invasion for the reason that China

1055
01:04:53,120 --> 01:04:57,600
Speaker 2: is trying now to get the TSMC chip making facilities,

1056
01:04:58,360 --> 01:05:01,120
Speaker 2: and they're declaring war again. It's the people of Taiwan,

1057
01:05:01,160 --> 01:05:04,640
Speaker 2: the civilians of Taiwan. Blockade means no food, no fuel,

1058
01:05:04,680 --> 01:05:08,560
Speaker 2: nothing in or out, and that I think creates such

1059
01:05:08,560 --> 01:05:13,000
Speaker 2: a humanitarian emergency that it's just such an appalling thing.

1060
01:05:13,120 --> 01:05:14,920
Speaker 1: We're in the middle of doing this right now in

1061
01:05:14,960 --> 01:05:15,800
Speaker 1: our hemisphere.

1062
01:05:17,360 --> 01:05:23,320
Speaker 2: It's true, it's true, but Taiwan, among other things, is

1063
01:05:23,360 --> 01:05:26,400
Speaker 2: the epicenter of the ai Revolution. Ninety nine percent of

1064
01:05:26,480 --> 01:05:29,360
Speaker 2: the in video GPUs that are that are training the

1065
01:05:29,400 --> 01:05:32,960
Speaker 2: next Claude and GPT are coming from Taiwan. You don't

1066
01:05:32,960 --> 01:05:35,640
Speaker 2: want China to just seize those let alone sees those

1067
01:05:35,640 --> 01:05:41,240
Speaker 2: factories completely intact with all the engineers. So I think

1068
01:05:42,840 --> 01:05:45,920
Speaker 2: if they blockade, they create a panic, they get the

1069
01:05:45,960 --> 01:05:48,200
Speaker 2: whole world against them, in the same way the whole

1070
01:05:48,200 --> 01:05:49,680
Speaker 2: world is against Iran right now.

1071
01:05:50,000 --> 01:05:52,360
Speaker 1: Interesting what they could just think a blockade is so

1072
01:05:52,400 --> 01:05:56,680
Speaker 1: aggressive that those that might be neutral about this issue thinking, hey,

1073
01:05:56,720 --> 01:05:57,520
Speaker 1: this ain't our fight.

1074
01:05:58,040 --> 01:06:01,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, much much, much, much much more like they do it.

1075
01:06:01,000 --> 01:06:04,240
Speaker 1: That's what happened with Ukraine, right the invasion. Russia's invasion

1076
01:06:04,360 --> 01:06:07,280
Speaker 1: United you know, brought Europe together in a way that

1077
01:06:08,000 --> 01:06:10,040
Speaker 1: I think Putin failed to imagine.

1078
01:06:10,160 --> 01:06:12,520
Speaker 2: Yes, Yes, and I think much more likely they do

1079
01:06:13,000 --> 01:06:16,240
Speaker 2: what I call it quarantine, or some have called it

1080
01:06:16,400 --> 01:06:17,840
Speaker 2: an indirect control scenario.

1081
01:06:18,160 --> 01:06:21,400
Speaker 1: What is quarantine? What makes quarantine different from a black eight?

1082
01:06:22,000 --> 01:06:24,720
Speaker 2: What's different is it's not saying nothing can come or go.

1083
01:06:25,400 --> 01:06:27,280
Speaker 2: It's just saying we control what comes and goes.

1084
01:06:27,720 --> 01:06:28,320
Speaker 1: Gotcha.

1085
01:06:28,440 --> 01:06:30,880
Speaker 2: So it's saying, you want to fly from San Francisco

1086
01:06:30,960 --> 01:06:36,600
Speaker 2: to Taipei, cool connect in the port of Shanghai or Fujo.

1087
01:06:36,680 --> 01:06:39,200
Speaker 2: In the airport in Fujo and clear customs.

1088
01:06:39,640 --> 01:06:41,400
Speaker 1: And decide whether you clear customs or not.

1089
01:06:41,520 --> 01:06:44,440
Speaker 2: Will decide whether or not. Oh you want to you

1090
01:06:44,440 --> 01:06:47,760
Speaker 2: want to export these chips terribly, Sorry, you have to

1091
01:06:47,840 --> 01:06:52,280
Speaker 2: go through this port in China. And that means essentially

1092
01:06:52,320 --> 01:06:55,160
Speaker 2: Timewan's on it. If we give into that principle, we're

1093
01:06:55,200 --> 01:06:58,560
Speaker 2: checkmated because we're not going to be able to send

1094
01:06:58,600 --> 01:07:02,200
Speaker 2: more diplomats, more military advice. Taiwan will never be able

1095
01:07:02,200 --> 01:07:04,840
Speaker 2: to build the weapons it needs to defend itself, and

1096
01:07:05,080 --> 01:07:07,520
Speaker 2: China will seize control over the chip supply chain with

1097
01:07:07,560 --> 01:07:12,400
Speaker 2: those factories intact, and that's a much. But then they

1098
01:07:12,400 --> 01:07:15,280
Speaker 2: can say we're not waging war against the civilians. We're

1099
01:07:15,280 --> 01:07:18,520
Speaker 2: not saying you can't send oil and food, right and

1100
01:07:18,560 --> 01:07:21,880
Speaker 2: then blockade, you know, the really medieval stuff. That's a

1101
01:07:21,920 --> 01:07:24,360
Speaker 2: plan B, and everyone knows it's there. And if we

1102
01:07:24,360 --> 01:07:25,800
Speaker 2: don't play ball, it's always something that.

1103
01:07:25,760 --> 01:07:28,360
Speaker 1: They can blockade is what you're saying is blockade might

1104
01:07:28,400 --> 01:07:33,600
Speaker 1: as well be a declaration of war. Correct. Let's let's

1105
01:07:33,680 --> 01:07:38,760
Speaker 1: let's end this conversation with something that I think we're

1106
01:07:38,880 --> 01:07:43,800
Speaker 1: I'm constantly you know, we all know this. Dictatorships they

1107
01:07:44,080 --> 01:07:47,760
Speaker 1: and slowly then quickly, Yeah, right, when things go south

1108
01:07:48,160 --> 01:07:50,880
Speaker 1: with the people, they suddenly you know, it's incremental, and

1109
01:07:50,920 --> 01:07:54,360
Speaker 1: then it's it's suddenly gone. There's a massive youth unemployment

1110
01:07:54,400 --> 01:07:59,720
Speaker 1: in China. There's all of the you know, I've I

1111
01:07:59,720 --> 01:08:05,000
Speaker 1: can to you my my optimism about US China relationships

1112
01:08:05,720 --> 01:08:10,640
Speaker 1: are simply that China's you know, they've grown a middle

1113
01:08:10,640 --> 01:08:13,960
Speaker 1: class that is going to demand some services. Now we

1114
01:08:14,040 --> 01:08:17,599
Speaker 1: see it in our more mature economy, and and you

1115
01:08:17,600 --> 01:08:21,480
Speaker 1: know that that can be the lynchpin between domestic strife

1116
01:08:21,600 --> 01:08:29,040
Speaker 1: and domestic equility. You know this is China's economy has

1117
01:08:29,080 --> 01:08:32,280
Speaker 1: not been great as far as they've at least when

1118
01:08:32,320 --> 01:08:35,880
Speaker 1: you and everything is by comparison. Yes, they're still growing

1119
01:08:35,880 --> 01:08:38,759
Speaker 1: in a large faster clip than than we are. Well,

1120
01:08:38,840 --> 01:08:40,280
Speaker 1: we're two different economies or something.

1121
01:08:40,280 --> 01:08:42,040
Speaker 2: I don't think they are. By the way, the data.

1122
01:08:42,120 --> 01:08:44,280
Speaker 1: Interesting, you think the numbers are they're fudging their numbers

1123
01:08:44,320 --> 01:08:46,960
Speaker 1: a little bit, But the point is it's pretty clear.

1124
01:08:47,120 --> 01:08:50,559
Speaker 1: This is they've got an issue. They've got cranky middle class,

1125
01:08:50,600 --> 01:08:54,240
Speaker 1: they've got youth unemployment, they have their own population issues.

1126
01:08:56,040 --> 01:09:00,400
Speaker 1: How stable are things domestically in your view? You know, again,

1127
01:09:00,920 --> 01:09:04,000
Speaker 1: it's like with Russia that economy is horrendous, and yet

1128
01:09:04,520 --> 01:09:08,000
Speaker 1: you know they're just for now sticking with them because

1129
01:09:08,040 --> 01:09:10,160
Speaker 1: there isn't an obvious alternative at the moment.

1130
01:09:10,400 --> 01:09:11,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think you said it best. In

1131
01:09:11,840 --> 01:09:16,280
Speaker 2: an authoritarian regime, things are stable until they're not, because

1132
01:09:16,560 --> 01:09:18,960
Speaker 2: no one wants to go against the guy with the guns.

1133
01:09:19,439 --> 01:09:19,639
Speaker 1: Right.

1134
01:09:20,720 --> 01:09:24,280
Speaker 2: China has some massive structural headwinds, and I think the

1135
01:09:24,280 --> 01:09:27,120
Speaker 2: way to think about their economy is the only way

1136
01:09:27,120 --> 01:09:32,160
Speaker 2: they have left to grow is through exports, which is

1137
01:09:32,240 --> 01:09:34,240
Speaker 2: another way to say this is the only way they have.

1138
01:09:34,439 --> 01:09:35,440
Speaker 1: Well, that's deterrence.

1139
01:09:35,720 --> 01:09:37,919
Speaker 2: That is stealing growth from other countries.

1140
01:09:38,080 --> 01:09:41,080
Speaker 1: Sure, but in some ways, if they don't have stable

1141
01:09:41,080 --> 01:09:42,920
Speaker 1: relations around the world, they can't grow.

1142
01:09:43,400 --> 01:09:46,960
Speaker 2: Yes, So that's this is the economic piece of my

1143
01:09:47,160 --> 01:09:50,640
Speaker 2: deterrence concept in the book. I think, you know, the

1144
01:09:50,680 --> 01:09:53,680
Speaker 2: first question with economic deterrence is if we go to

1145
01:09:53,720 --> 01:09:56,240
Speaker 2: the brink, do we have a contingency plan for the crisis,

1146
01:09:56,360 --> 01:09:58,519
Speaker 2: and we do not just barrel into the crisis or

1147
01:09:58,520 --> 01:10:01,280
Speaker 2: that thinking that markets are going to go crazy, you know,

1148
01:10:01,360 --> 01:10:03,360
Speaker 2: prices will go up. How do we deal with this?

1149
01:10:03,640 --> 01:10:06,280
Speaker 2: So you need a plan for that, But then you

1150
01:10:06,320 --> 01:10:09,400
Speaker 2: also need a plan how do you use a Taiwan

1151
01:10:09,479 --> 01:10:14,840
Speaker 2: crisis as an opportunity to reset the world economy on

1152
01:10:14,920 --> 01:10:16,960
Speaker 2: terms that are more favorable to the rest of the

1153
01:10:16,960 --> 01:10:21,800
Speaker 2: world and less favorable to China and the you know, India,

1154
01:10:21,880 --> 01:10:26,280
Speaker 2: Brazil in these countries may not take our position exactly

1155
01:10:26,320 --> 01:10:28,920
Speaker 2: on Taiwan, but none of them want to be hollowed

1156
01:10:28,960 --> 01:10:32,479
Speaker 2: out the way the American rust belt was by just

1157
01:10:32,520 --> 01:10:35,280
Speaker 2: the tsunami of Chinese experts. And that's the world that

1158
01:10:35,360 --> 01:10:39,720
Speaker 2: China wants, a world where China makes everything and you

1159
01:10:39,800 --> 01:10:42,439
Speaker 2: they're the factory and you're the farm. Like they want

1160
01:10:42,479 --> 01:10:45,880
Speaker 2: to turn turn us into Argentina. That's the goal. And

1161
01:10:46,280 --> 01:10:49,000
Speaker 2: no one wants that. And so how do you build

1162
01:10:49,040 --> 01:10:51,679
Speaker 2: a coalition of not just your allies, but the whole

1163
01:10:51,720 --> 01:10:54,280
Speaker 2: rest of the world and say, if God forbid, deterrence

1164
01:10:54,280 --> 01:10:58,120
Speaker 2: fails over Taiwan, whatever happens over the fate of Taiwan,

1165
01:10:58,400 --> 01:10:59,800
Speaker 2: we have an idea for how we're going to re

1166
01:11:00,880 --> 01:11:03,000
Speaker 2: use this to reset the global trading system in the

1167
01:11:03,040 --> 01:11:06,160
Speaker 2: way we're China can't pull this stuff anymore, and then

1168
01:11:06,800 --> 01:11:09,599
Speaker 2: you're taking the juice out of their economic machine. One

1169
01:11:09,680 --> 01:11:13,000
Speaker 2: hundred million people in China are employed making stuff for export.

1170
01:11:13,240 --> 01:11:16,320
Speaker 2: You take those jobs away, that is what implodes their regime.

1171
01:11:16,479 --> 01:11:19,080
Speaker 2: But you can't do that overnight. It's a ten year,

1172
01:11:19,240 --> 01:11:20,200
Speaker 2: fifteen year project.

1173
01:11:20,520 --> 01:11:23,839
Speaker 1: Well, and it's now a twenty year project, right because

1174
01:11:24,040 --> 01:11:28,200
Speaker 1: this president has set back economic relations with every single

1175
01:11:28,439 --> 01:11:33,479
Speaker 1: country on this gloat on this earth with his tariff

1176
01:11:33,680 --> 01:11:39,639
Speaker 1: policies that have completely shaken up relationships. I mean, look

1177
01:11:39,680 --> 01:11:42,080
Speaker 1: at this deal that China cuts with Canada. We work

1178
01:11:42,320 --> 01:11:46,519
Speaker 1: for the last decade to keep Canada from doing these

1179
01:11:46,560 --> 01:11:50,519
Speaker 1: deals with China. And now understandably, so what choice. If

1180
01:11:50,560 --> 01:11:54,320
Speaker 1: you're in Canada's shoes, you look at it like, we

1181
01:11:54,360 --> 01:11:57,160
Speaker 1: can't we can't trust the Americans at this moment for

1182
01:11:57,200 --> 01:12:00,880
Speaker 1: our for our economic prospect, We're going to have to

1183
01:12:01,120 --> 01:12:03,800
Speaker 1: We're going to have to play ball with everybody. I mean,

1184
01:12:04,439 --> 01:12:08,559
Speaker 1: how much has this tariff strategy of Trump's made it

1185
01:12:08,680 --> 01:12:12,400
Speaker 1: harder to rally what you just described here, which would

1186
01:12:12,400 --> 01:12:17,920
Speaker 1: be very rational economic deterrence of China. How much, how much?

1187
01:12:18,640 --> 01:12:19,960
Speaker 1: How much of a setback this has been.

1188
01:12:20,439 --> 01:12:23,880
Speaker 2: It's been one step forward but two steps back. And

1189
01:12:24,280 --> 01:12:26,919
Speaker 2: the reason is China is so big of a challenge.

1190
01:12:27,439 --> 01:12:30,800
Speaker 2: China is a third of global manufacturing. You cannot just

1191
01:12:31,760 --> 01:12:35,360
Speaker 2: stop buying stuff from them overnight. Won't work. They're in

1192
01:12:35,400 --> 01:12:38,000
Speaker 2: every supply chain and you can't tell other people to

1193
01:12:38,000 --> 01:12:42,120
Speaker 2: do that either. So we learned this on Liberation Day.

1194
01:12:42,240 --> 01:12:44,280
Speaker 2: We're like, we're going to go call Turkey on trade

1195
01:12:44,280 --> 01:12:46,920
Speaker 2: with China. Oops, that that's not going to work. And

1196
01:12:47,120 --> 01:12:49,040
Speaker 2: countries that are even more dependent on trade with China

1197
01:12:49,040 --> 01:12:51,479
Speaker 2: are never going to do that. But what we have

1198
01:12:51,640 --> 01:12:55,320
Speaker 2: discovered is, you know, no credit to the Trump administration

1199
01:12:55,360 --> 01:13:00,000
Speaker 2: on this, just credit to China's predatory trade policies. China

1200
01:13:00,160 --> 01:13:02,920
Speaker 2: is hollowing out the industrial base of the European Union,

1201
01:13:03,560 --> 01:13:09,200
Speaker 2: like Europeans are raising the populist parties because Volkswagen is dying, right,

1202
01:13:09,600 --> 01:13:12,000
Speaker 2: The economic heart of the European Union is dying. And

1203
01:13:12,040 --> 01:13:13,680
Speaker 2: it's if you go to India, if you go to

1204
01:13:13,720 --> 01:13:16,400
Speaker 2: South Korea, it's it's the same thing. They're being swamped

1205
01:13:16,400 --> 01:13:20,840
Speaker 2: by Chinese products. So the solution is in principle, as

1206
01:13:20,880 --> 01:13:23,719
Speaker 2: many countries as possible should put up tariffs on China,

1207
01:13:24,040 --> 01:13:26,880
Speaker 2: and they should take them down on one another. Because

1208
01:13:26,920 --> 01:13:29,439
Speaker 2: what broke the global trading system is not that trade

1209
01:13:29,479 --> 01:13:33,519
Speaker 2: itself is bad. It's that we allowed a communist country

1210
01:13:33,520 --> 01:13:35,719
Speaker 2: that doesn't play by the rules into the system.

1211
01:13:36,080 --> 01:13:41,920
Speaker 1: Yeah. Boy, it'd be nice if if America created this coalition.

1212
01:13:42,040 --> 01:13:45,479
Speaker 1: Maybe we could call it the Trans Pacific Partnership and

1213
01:13:45,560 --> 01:13:51,120
Speaker 1: it was a alliance of of of Asian Pacific countries

1214
01:13:51,160 --> 01:13:53,519
Speaker 1: not named China and the United States. Oh wait, we

1215
01:13:53,600 --> 01:13:53,960
Speaker 1: tried that.

1216
01:13:55,600 --> 01:13:59,120
Speaker 2: TPP isn't coming back, but some version could really use it.

1217
01:14:00,080 --> 01:14:02,840
Speaker 2: Version of it, some version of it is And you

1218
01:14:02,920 --> 01:14:05,960
Speaker 2: already see the beginnings of this with the US deal

1219
01:14:06,000 --> 01:14:09,000
Speaker 2: with Japan. Just announce on the Takaichi visit. There's going

1220
01:14:09,040 --> 01:14:12,000
Speaker 2: to be co op collaboration on economic security, supplier chains,

1221
01:14:12,040 --> 01:14:14,519
Speaker 2: critical minerals. We're working with the Europeans on this stuff.

1222
01:14:14,520 --> 01:14:17,200
Speaker 2: Why because China is so big of a challenge that

1223
01:14:17,439 --> 01:14:21,760
Speaker 2: actually this time we don't have a choice but resetting

1224
01:14:21,760 --> 01:14:26,639
Speaker 2: the terms of this international trading system, if we're doing

1225
01:14:26,640 --> 01:14:29,200
Speaker 2: it in peacetime, it's going to be step by step.

1226
01:14:29,200 --> 01:14:31,719
Speaker 2: It's going to be political and messy. What we should

1227
01:14:31,760 --> 01:14:36,040
Speaker 2: be thinking about is if God forbid, deterrence fails with China,

1228
01:14:36,520 --> 01:14:38,760
Speaker 2: there's the question of what you do economically on day

1229
01:14:38,760 --> 01:14:41,800
Speaker 2: one to prevent the financial crisis, and then there's the

1230
01:14:41,880 --> 01:14:43,880
Speaker 2: question of what you want the world to look like

1231
01:14:43,920 --> 01:14:47,120
Speaker 2: on day one hundred, day one thousand, day two thousand,

1232
01:14:47,800 --> 01:14:51,840
Speaker 2: after the immediate hostilities are over. This is like a

1233
01:14:51,880 --> 01:14:55,120
Speaker 2: break the glass scenario. So if this happens with China,

1234
01:14:55,240 --> 01:14:57,960
Speaker 2: our trading, our economic relationship with them won't be the same.

1235
01:14:58,360 --> 01:15:01,320
Speaker 2: Maybe we'll have some probably we will not break it entirely,

1236
01:15:01,439 --> 01:15:03,800
Speaker 2: but it won't be the same. So what what is

1237
01:15:03,840 --> 01:15:06,160
Speaker 2: our vision for what it should look like? And that

1238
01:15:06,320 --> 01:15:08,320
Speaker 2: is the contingency plan that we should be doing. Now.

1239
01:15:08,320 --> 01:15:10,760
Speaker 2: You're not going to have like a perfect plan, you know,

1240
01:15:10,880 --> 01:15:12,960
Speaker 2: in a in a desk and you take it out

1241
01:15:13,000 --> 01:15:16,400
Speaker 2: of the envelope, but you can agree on principles, the

1242
01:15:16,400 --> 01:15:19,280
Speaker 2: basic ideas of like how that system should be organized.

1243
01:15:19,479 --> 01:15:22,080
Speaker 2: Those are the conversations we should be having now to

1244
01:15:22,160 --> 01:15:26,320
Speaker 2: imagine that the world after wouldn't necessarily just be economic

1245
01:15:26,360 --> 01:15:28,639
Speaker 2: mutually sure destruction, there's another way through.

1246
01:15:29,080 --> 01:15:31,960
Speaker 1: You know, you're actually outlining and this look I kind

1247
01:15:31,960 --> 01:15:34,439
Speaker 1: of think that we ought to be thinking like that,

1248
01:15:34,600 --> 01:15:36,840
Speaker 1: that we're basically about to have another.

1249
01:15:36,560 --> 01:15:40,960
Speaker 2: Cold War in the best case, right.

1250
01:15:42,000 --> 01:15:44,559
Speaker 1: And in some ways, isn't that what you're articulating, like

1251
01:15:44,680 --> 01:15:49,559
Speaker 1: let's let's let's put together a plan to effectively win

1252
01:15:49,640 --> 01:15:50,880
Speaker 1: a Cold war against.

1253
01:15:50,640 --> 01:15:54,240
Speaker 2: China kind of. But this, this situation is different from

1254
01:15:54,240 --> 01:15:57,519
Speaker 2: the Cold War and some fundamental ways, and the biggest

1255
01:15:57,560 --> 01:16:00,680
Speaker 2: one is that we're all economically interconnected.

1256
01:16:00,960 --> 01:16:03,800
Speaker 1: No, Right, the Soviets had no economic skin in the game, right,

1257
01:16:03,840 --> 01:16:05,559
Speaker 1: It made it easy to isolate them, and it made

1258
01:16:05,600 --> 01:16:09,160
Speaker 1: it easy for them to then, you know, make a

1259
01:16:09,280 --> 01:16:12,240
Speaker 1: common cause with those isolated with them exactly.

1260
01:16:12,280 --> 01:16:15,120
Speaker 2: And what's different about the world now is that not

1261
01:16:15,160 --> 01:16:19,080
Speaker 2: only are we and the US and China deeply economically interconnected,

1262
01:16:19,439 --> 01:16:21,400
Speaker 2: but even if you imagine a world where we get

1263
01:16:21,400 --> 01:16:24,680
Speaker 2: divorced or we just like pretend to get divorced, we're

1264
01:16:24,720 --> 01:16:27,200
Speaker 2: still going to be trading with each other via Mexico

1265
01:16:27,600 --> 01:16:31,280
Speaker 2: and Europe and India and everyone else. So there's no

1266
01:16:31,960 --> 01:16:34,760
Speaker 2: there's no universe in which you bifurcate the world and

1267
01:16:34,800 --> 01:16:37,240
Speaker 2: it's just like China on the one side and US

1268
01:16:37,280 --> 01:16:39,200
Speaker 2: and everyone on the other. It's going to be a

1269
01:16:39,200 --> 01:16:43,680
Speaker 2: trifurcated world where like, if deterrence collapses and we have

1270
01:16:43,720 --> 01:16:47,120
Speaker 2: to reset the economic relationship, we're going to be trading

1271
01:16:47,200 --> 01:16:49,559
Speaker 2: some with them. Maybe we'll still buy their nikes, but

1272
01:16:49,600 --> 01:16:53,120
Speaker 2: we won't buy their iPhones or something. And then there's

1273
01:16:53,160 --> 01:16:55,000
Speaker 2: a whole lot of countries in between the trade with

1274
01:16:55,040 --> 01:16:58,000
Speaker 2: both sides, and we don't want those countries to sell

1275
01:16:58,000 --> 01:17:00,599
Speaker 2: our Nvidio chips to China, and you don't want those

1276
01:17:00,640 --> 01:17:06,360
Speaker 2: countries to sell components that China can sabotage remotely access

1277
01:17:06,520 --> 01:17:09,720
Speaker 2: or something into us. And so that means you need

1278
01:17:09,800 --> 01:17:13,800
Speaker 2: to reimagine how the whole economic system is wired because

1279
01:17:13,800 --> 01:17:16,240
Speaker 2: you actually have to have control over the entire supply

1280
01:17:16,360 --> 01:17:19,120
Speaker 2: chain nowhere goods are coming from, know where all the

1281
01:17:19,160 --> 01:17:23,240
Speaker 2: components come from. That's a completely different architecture. You need

1282
01:17:23,680 --> 01:17:26,320
Speaker 2: institutions that don't exist to do that. But that may

1283
01:17:26,360 --> 01:17:28,400
Speaker 2: be the world that we're moving towards.

1284
01:17:28,880 --> 01:17:32,680
Speaker 1: Well, like, this was pretty thought provoking, and you know,

1285
01:17:33,680 --> 01:17:35,760
Speaker 1: you dealt with so much nuance it's hard to turn

1286
01:17:35,840 --> 01:17:38,920
Speaker 1: this into a fifty fifteen second social media bite.

1287
01:17:38,960 --> 01:17:42,599
Speaker 2: Come on now, Well, it's podcasts like yours that help

1288
01:17:42,640 --> 01:17:43,759
Speaker 2: us dig into the details.

1289
01:17:43,960 --> 01:17:48,080
Speaker 1: No, I mean it's it sounds like you don't think

1290
01:17:48,120 --> 01:17:51,639
Speaker 1: this is inevitable, and you're actually assume at this point

1291
01:17:52,439 --> 01:17:55,479
Speaker 1: that we're probably not going to have a kinetic hot

1292
01:17:55,560 --> 01:18:01,280
Speaker 1: Connecticut kinetic military exchange with China this decade you see

1293
01:18:01,479 --> 01:18:04,240
Speaker 1: war cot. Just the way you're speaking, you seem pretty

1294
01:18:04,240 --> 01:18:06,400
Speaker 1: confident that I know you said hope, but that.

1295
01:18:06,320 --> 01:18:08,960
Speaker 2: If we if we do, I think we'll.

1296
01:18:08,760 --> 01:18:12,479
Speaker 1: Win, but are not ready. That is what you're saying.

1297
01:18:12,600 --> 01:18:15,160
Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of uncertainty, but I like

1298
01:18:15,200 --> 01:18:16,320
Speaker 2: our odds more than theirs.

1299
01:18:17,360 --> 01:18:22,280
Speaker 1: And you think she is reality based enough to know this.

1300
01:18:22,840 --> 01:18:27,160
Speaker 2: It's so basically, it's just really really hard to get

1301
01:18:27,200 --> 01:18:29,639
Speaker 2: tens of thousands of guys across the time went straight.

1302
01:18:29,680 --> 01:18:31,120
Speaker 2: I mean, this is like, this is one of the

1303
01:18:31,200 --> 01:18:33,840
Speaker 2: nastiest wateries in the world. You've got like fifty mile

1304
01:18:33,880 --> 01:18:36,519
Speaker 2: an hour winds, fifty foot waves in the islands in

1305
01:18:36,520 --> 01:18:38,400
Speaker 2: the middle of the strait, the trees go aside, Well.

1306
01:18:38,360 --> 01:18:41,080
Speaker 1: Just wait till we have you know, sharks with lasers

1307
01:18:41,120 --> 01:18:42,639
Speaker 1: on them oh as well.

1308
01:18:42,520 --> 01:18:46,000
Speaker 2: Right, and and undersea drones and all the and the Yeah,

1309
01:18:46,320 --> 01:18:49,160
Speaker 2: lots of lasers involved. But like what you really don't

1310
01:18:49,160 --> 01:18:51,040
Speaker 2: want to do if your season paying is put fifteen

1311
01:18:51,080 --> 01:18:53,479
Speaker 2: thousand troops on the beaches and then be unable to

1312
01:18:53,520 --> 01:18:58,000
Speaker 2: supply them and watch them get massacred. So a lot

1313
01:18:58,040 --> 01:19:00,519
Speaker 2: has to go right for him. There's many pathways that

1314
01:19:00,520 --> 01:19:02,480
Speaker 2: are just passive least resistance.

1315
01:19:03,320 --> 01:19:05,840
Speaker 1: This I should have asked as sooner, But it's a

1316
01:19:05,920 --> 01:19:10,080
Speaker 1: question I'm meant to asked. Is the you know, there's

1317
01:19:10,080 --> 01:19:13,040
Speaker 1: always been this question. Boy, the Chinese military hasn't been tested.

1318
01:19:14,320 --> 01:19:17,280
Speaker 1: How would they test themselves? Is there another action they

1319
01:19:17,360 --> 01:19:20,040
Speaker 1: might take that has little that we don't care about,

1320
01:19:20,320 --> 01:19:22,960
Speaker 1: that they may do that they may, you know, in

1321
01:19:22,960 --> 01:19:27,040
Speaker 1: some ways the way the Russians you know, went into

1322
01:19:27,160 --> 01:19:31,840
Speaker 1: Georgia and things like that, or is there some is

1323
01:19:31,840 --> 01:19:34,960
Speaker 1: there some way that they that that they would want

1324
01:19:35,000 --> 01:19:37,519
Speaker 1: to test their military might on a soft target.

1325
01:19:38,000 --> 01:19:39,639
Speaker 2: So you ask you ask you is there a way

1326
01:19:39,640 --> 01:19:43,120
Speaker 2: that they can test? I think the thing to understand

1327
01:19:43,920 --> 01:19:47,160
Speaker 2: is that they have a direct pipeline of knowledge from

1328
01:19:47,200 --> 01:19:50,599
Speaker 2: the Russia Ukraine War, and they have a direct pipeline

1329
01:19:50,640 --> 01:19:52,439
Speaker 2: of knowledge from our run.

1330
01:19:53,520 --> 01:19:56,200
Speaker 1: And that's their that's their test. They're using this.

1331
01:19:56,479 --> 01:20:03,000
Speaker 2: They are supplying the entire Russian military industrial ecosystem, but

1332
01:20:03,120 --> 01:20:08,360
Speaker 2: particularly Russia's drone base and then just as importantly, they're

1333
01:20:08,439 --> 01:20:13,120
Speaker 2: learning the counter drone tech, right, the electronic warfare mainly

1334
01:20:13,400 --> 01:20:17,320
Speaker 2: that you use to kill drones. And then I am

1335
01:20:17,360 --> 01:20:21,479
Speaker 2: sure they've got a whole lot of spooks in Ukraine yep,

1336
01:20:22,080 --> 01:20:25,960
Speaker 2: trying to buy up Ukrainian know how. So they're seeing

1337
01:20:26,040 --> 01:20:28,479
Speaker 2: both sides of that war in a way that we're not.

1338
01:20:29,600 --> 01:20:31,640
Speaker 2: That's the first thing. And then the second thing is

1339
01:20:31,680 --> 01:20:34,479
Speaker 2: in the Middle East, they're watching all they're seeing how

1340
01:20:34,479 --> 01:20:38,479
Speaker 2: we do a high intensity bombing campaign, and if we

1341
01:20:38,560 --> 01:20:40,640
Speaker 2: go in with special forces and Marines, they're going to

1342
01:20:40,680 --> 01:20:45,599
Speaker 2: see that too, and they're going to learn from that.

1343
01:20:46,080 --> 01:20:48,320
Speaker 2: And I wouldn't be surprised if they will have some

1344
01:20:48,439 --> 01:20:52,439
Speaker 2: advisors on the ground in Iran, very very quietly. But

1345
01:20:53,400 --> 01:20:55,960
Speaker 2: still it's like studying in a textbook. It's not the

1346
01:20:56,000 --> 01:20:56,479
Speaker 2: same thing as.

1347
01:20:56,439 --> 01:20:57,720
Speaker 1: Actually fighting for the thing.

1348
01:20:58,280 --> 01:21:01,160
Speaker 2: And as we said it early you're in this conversation,

1349
01:21:03,560 --> 01:21:05,519
Speaker 2: it's one thing to learn how to fight a land

1350
01:21:05,560 --> 01:21:09,080
Speaker 2: war over years and years and years. It's another thing

1351
01:21:09,120 --> 01:21:12,040
Speaker 2: when you're fighting a war in the air and at sea,

1352
01:21:12,520 --> 01:21:15,400
Speaker 2: where basically everything's decided in the first forty eight hours,

1353
01:21:15,439 --> 01:21:18,840
Speaker 2: because if you lose your key assets in the first

1354
01:21:18,920 --> 01:21:20,720
Speaker 2: forty eight hours. There's no way you can come back

1355
01:21:20,760 --> 01:21:24,400
Speaker 2: and win, and that it puts more of an impetus

1356
01:21:24,400 --> 01:21:28,200
Speaker 2: on us to win quick and go big. I don't

1357
01:21:28,200 --> 01:21:30,200
Speaker 2: think they want to fight a war with us. It's

1358
01:21:30,240 --> 01:21:30,720
Speaker 2: too right.

1359
01:21:31,760 --> 01:21:34,200
Speaker 1: This is terrific. I really appreciate it. Good luck with

1360
01:21:34,240 --> 01:21:38,680
Speaker 1: the book again. The book is called Defending Taiwan. Make

1361
01:21:38,720 --> 01:21:42,440
Speaker 1: sure I get it right everyday. Defending Taiwan a strategy

1362
01:21:42,520 --> 01:21:45,839
Speaker 1: to prevent war with China. Like I said, very nuanced,

1363
01:21:45,960 --> 01:21:49,800
Speaker 1: very rational, and a very important conversation. Really appreciate it.

1364
01:21:50,120 --> 01:21:50,679
Speaker 2: Thank you, Chuck.

1365
01:21:50,720 --> 01:21:51,320
Speaker 1: Appreciate it.

1366
01:22:00,160 --> 01:22:01,160
Speaker 2: Ask Chuck.

1367
01:22:06,000 --> 01:22:11,439
Speaker 1: With that. Let's dig into some Friday questions here for

1368
01:22:11,479 --> 01:22:14,680
Speaker 1: the weekend, and I'm going to begin with David B.

1369
01:22:14,800 --> 01:22:17,680
Speaker 1: Salt Lake City, Utah. And he writes, Hey, it's my

1370
01:22:17,720 --> 01:22:20,320
Speaker 1: first time writing in welcome glad to have you keep

1371
01:22:20,400 --> 01:22:23,439
Speaker 1: him coming. But your video comparing today's political brinksmanship to

1372
01:22:23,439 --> 01:22:25,400
Speaker 1: the eighteen fifties really got me thinking when area I

1373
01:22:25,400 --> 01:22:28,240
Speaker 1: don't think it's enough. Intention is whether the core problem

1374
01:22:28,280 --> 01:22:32,080
Speaker 1: today is unequal representation, the growing gap between large and

1375
01:22:32,120 --> 01:22:35,560
Speaker 1: small states, the Senate and the electoral college, disparities, gerrymandering,

1376
01:22:35,600 --> 01:22:39,000
Speaker 1: the capped outsize no statehood for DC or Puerto Rico,

1377
01:22:39,320 --> 01:22:42,880
Speaker 1: all of which make many voters feel underrepresented. If the

1378
01:22:42,920 --> 01:22:47,960
Speaker 1: eighteen fifties crisis ultimately required constitutional amendments to resolve, do

1379
01:22:48,000 --> 01:22:51,599
Speaker 1: you think today's political problems maybe ultimately require structural constitution

1380
01:22:51,720 --> 01:22:55,479
Speaker 1: reforms like expanding the House, adding states, or reforming the

1381
01:22:55,520 --> 01:22:59,679
Speaker 1: electoral college. Love to all that you do, man, David Boyd,

1382
01:22:59,720 --> 01:23:03,400
Speaker 1: did you did you just ask questions? I hit all

1383
01:23:03,479 --> 01:23:05,960
Speaker 1: of my hobby horses. As you know, I did a

1384
01:23:05,960 --> 01:23:12,040
Speaker 1: actual ted talk on uncapping the House. There's no silver bullet. However,

1385
01:23:12,280 --> 01:23:15,599
Speaker 1: I would argue uncapping the House this idea, that this

1386
01:23:15,760 --> 01:23:21,200
Speaker 1: does not require a constitutional amendment, just an act of Congress.

1387
01:23:21,920 --> 01:23:25,559
Speaker 1: Congress stopped expanding the House as the population increased, which

1388
01:23:25,640 --> 01:23:28,840
Speaker 1: was what the intent of the founding fathers were. And

1389
01:23:28,880 --> 01:23:30,920
Speaker 1: I believe if we could stick and I actually have

1390
01:23:31,000 --> 01:23:34,000
Speaker 1: done the math. I've done the math on this, and

1391
01:23:34,040 --> 01:23:36,879
Speaker 1: I've shared it before. Point oh three percent of the population. No,

1392
01:23:36,880 --> 01:23:40,280
Speaker 1: no congressional district should be bigger or smaller than that, right,

1393
01:23:40,320 --> 01:23:42,439
Speaker 1: point oh three. And I do think if you set

1394
01:23:42,479 --> 01:23:46,080
Speaker 1: it in the constitution, it helps deal whether whether we

1395
01:23:46,280 --> 01:23:50,640
Speaker 1: grow or shrink. Right, it's very possible. We're seeing a

1396
01:23:50,680 --> 01:23:53,599
Speaker 1: flatlining of births in this country. It's very possible our

1397
01:23:53,640 --> 01:23:58,920
Speaker 1: population size could stagnate even shrink as we get older.

1398
01:24:00,600 --> 01:24:05,280
Speaker 1: But point oh three percent at the moment would basically

1399
01:24:06,520 --> 01:24:09,720
Speaker 1: double the current size of the House of Representatives, which

1400
01:24:09,760 --> 01:24:12,160
Speaker 1: would put it back to what the ratio was when

1401
01:24:12,200 --> 01:24:15,559
Speaker 1: they locked in the current four hundred and thirty five

1402
01:24:17,520 --> 01:24:20,040
Speaker 1: number for the House of Representatives back in nineteen thirty.

1403
01:24:21,120 --> 01:24:23,200
Speaker 1: Back then it was about one. Back then it was

1404
01:24:23,240 --> 01:24:27,240
Speaker 1: one per three hundred and fifty thousand, and frankly, jerrymandering

1405
01:24:27,320 --> 01:24:32,799
Speaker 1: while it existed, obviously the technologies, it was just harder

1406
01:24:32,840 --> 01:24:36,200
Speaker 1: to do. And in some ways the districts were more

1407
01:24:36,680 --> 01:24:40,040
Speaker 1: drawn as communities of interest as they've gotten bigger. Right,

1408
01:24:40,040 --> 01:24:42,960
Speaker 1: they're eight hundred one right now, we're over eight hundred

1409
01:24:42,960 --> 01:24:49,639
Speaker 1: thousand for each congressional district. Well, to put that in context,

1410
01:24:50,080 --> 01:24:52,760
Speaker 1: a population of eight hundred thousand would make you the

1411
01:24:53,560 --> 01:24:56,920
Speaker 1: one of the fifteen largest cities in America. So are

1412
01:24:56,960 --> 01:24:59,519
Speaker 1: you telling me we have four hundred and thirty five

1413
01:25:00,160 --> 01:25:02,720
Speaker 1: major cities, right? You know? And the fact of the

1414
01:25:02,760 --> 01:25:06,040
Speaker 1: matter is, a major city is not a single community

1415
01:25:06,040 --> 01:25:08,960
Speaker 1: of interest, right. A major city has all sorts of neighborhoods,

1416
01:25:09,120 --> 01:25:13,680
Speaker 1: all sorts of communities of interest. So it is obviously

1417
01:25:13,720 --> 01:25:15,679
Speaker 1: too big. If you go down to point zero three,

1418
01:25:15,680 --> 01:25:17,439
Speaker 1: you get one per three hundred and fifty thousand. And

1419
01:25:17,560 --> 01:25:21,320
Speaker 1: I'm lingering on this one answer. For this reason, you

1420
01:25:21,360 --> 01:25:23,640
Speaker 1: don't have to pass the constitutional medment to get rid

1421
01:25:23,640 --> 01:25:25,960
Speaker 1: of the electoral college if you simply double the size

1422
01:25:25,960 --> 01:25:29,040
Speaker 1: of the House. Why, because you've actually increased the numerator

1423
01:25:29,160 --> 01:25:31,880
Speaker 1: on the electoral college, right, instead of right now it's

1424
01:25:31,920 --> 01:25:34,799
Speaker 1: five hundred and thirty eight. Well, if you double the size,

1425
01:25:34,800 --> 01:25:39,400
Speaker 1: you're literally going to be adding approximately four hundred and

1426
01:25:39,439 --> 01:25:44,400
Speaker 1: thirty electoral votes to the total. Right, So suddenly, instead

1427
01:25:44,400 --> 01:25:47,360
Speaker 1: of five thirty eight, we're going to say, let's put

1428
01:25:47,400 --> 01:25:51,400
Speaker 1: it at eight sixty six. And the point being is

1429
01:25:51,400 --> 01:25:55,160
Speaker 1: that that doesn't mean it's impossible for the popular vote

1430
01:25:55,160 --> 01:25:58,360
Speaker 1: and the electoral college to diverge, but it makes it

1431
01:25:58,640 --> 01:26:02,000
Speaker 1: much more rare. Right, only the closest of elections have

1432
01:26:02,120 --> 01:26:05,439
Speaker 1: the possibility of going in that direction, So you don't

1433
01:26:05,439 --> 01:26:09,280
Speaker 1: even have to deal with the quote unquote electoral college issue.

1434
01:26:10,320 --> 01:26:13,680
Speaker 1: You know, if I do think you need a constitutional

1435
01:26:13,680 --> 01:26:16,600
Speaker 1: amendment to do this, I am skeptical of the Compact,

1436
01:26:17,400 --> 01:26:20,120
Speaker 1: the ideas out there were states bound together. I think

1437
01:26:20,120 --> 01:26:23,160
Speaker 1: it's technically legal, but I think I'm not sure that

1438
01:26:23,240 --> 01:26:25,439
Speaker 1: I think it does violate the spirit of the electoral College,

1439
01:26:25,479 --> 01:26:27,479
Speaker 1: and I think it I think you probably would have

1440
01:26:27,479 --> 01:26:30,639
Speaker 1: a Supreme Court rule it unconstitutional the compact, if you will,

1441
01:26:30,640 --> 01:26:33,000
Speaker 1: And I think that only introduces so what you're saying

1442
01:26:33,040 --> 01:26:34,880
Speaker 1: is one state votes for one but ends up going

1443
01:26:35,280 --> 01:26:37,280
Speaker 1: with another. I think you want to talk about feeling

1444
01:26:37,320 --> 01:26:40,760
Speaker 1: underrepresented in our democracy. I think people would feel underrepresented

1445
01:26:42,560 --> 01:26:47,960
Speaker 1: in our democracy on that front. But your larger question

1446
01:26:48,040 --> 01:26:50,360
Speaker 1: is I do think there's some constitutional amendments, So that's one.

1447
01:26:50,400 --> 01:26:52,960
Speaker 1: I definitely think we look, the money thing is a

1448
01:26:52,960 --> 01:26:57,480
Speaker 1: big deal, right, whether it's disclosure, you know, I ultimately

1449
01:26:57,600 --> 01:27:05,480
Speaker 1: think disclose to disclosure is probably the cleanest first constitutional

1450
01:27:05,479 --> 01:27:09,200
Speaker 1: amendment that is necessary. If we're going to equate money

1451
01:27:09,200 --> 01:27:14,000
Speaker 1: with speech, You're going to need a constitutional amendment if

1452
01:27:14,000 --> 01:27:18,880
Speaker 1: you want to regulate money in politics. Right, we could

1453
01:27:18,920 --> 01:27:22,640
Speaker 1: disagree with this current with this current direction of the

1454
01:27:22,680 --> 01:27:26,120
Speaker 1: court that equates money with speech, it will take you

1455
01:27:26,160 --> 01:27:31,040
Speaker 1: a generation to essentially repopulate the judicial system in order

1456
01:27:31,040 --> 01:27:35,280
Speaker 1: to see a precedent like that overturned. Frankly, the faster

1457
01:27:35,360 --> 01:27:37,519
Speaker 1: way to deal with this, and probably the more concrete

1458
01:27:37,600 --> 01:27:39,639
Speaker 1: way to deal with this, is with a constitutional amendment.

1459
01:27:39,720 --> 01:27:42,839
Speaker 1: So some form of money. I think disclosure is probably

1460
01:27:42,880 --> 01:27:46,840
Speaker 1: the strongest this. I mean, we all should know who

1461
01:27:47,160 --> 01:27:53,120
Speaker 1: is spending money to persuade us, period. Hard. Stop this

1462
01:27:53,240 --> 01:27:56,559
Speaker 1: idea of hiding donations dark money you want to talk about.

1463
01:27:56,600 --> 01:27:59,240
Speaker 1: I mean, that's just you know, this is the bag

1464
01:27:59,240 --> 01:28:01,559
Speaker 1: of cash world that we were trying to get rid

1465
01:28:01,560 --> 01:28:06,520
Speaker 1: of after the Watergate scandal. So I think mandatory disclosure,

1466
01:28:06,760 --> 01:28:11,719
Speaker 1: instant disclosure, and I'd like to see a NASCAR type

1467
01:28:11,720 --> 01:28:16,439
Speaker 1: of situation for all political candidates or all political organizations

1468
01:28:17,240 --> 01:28:19,920
Speaker 1: that when you spend money in an election year, you've

1469
01:28:19,960 --> 01:28:23,920
Speaker 1: got to always disclose who the who your ten biggest

1470
01:28:23,960 --> 01:28:27,240
Speaker 1: donors are, who you're twenty something like that. You know,

1471
01:28:27,280 --> 01:28:29,360
Speaker 1: any donor over one hundred thousand dollars has to be

1472
01:28:29,400 --> 01:28:31,760
Speaker 1: disclosed in the ad itself. Right, That's what I call

1473
01:28:31,800 --> 01:28:35,200
Speaker 1: it the NASCAR approach. Oh, your sponsor's stp oh STP's

1474
01:28:35,240 --> 01:28:38,240
Speaker 1: on the hood, right, you know your sponsor is open

1475
01:28:38,280 --> 01:28:41,720
Speaker 1: AI open aies on the hood. Your sponsor's anthropic andthropics

1476
01:28:41,760 --> 01:28:44,240
Speaker 1: on the hood, not people for the American way of

1477
01:28:44,240 --> 01:28:48,320
Speaker 1: doing business, right, that's a ridiculous way to do things.

1478
01:28:48,320 --> 01:28:53,200
Speaker 1: So I think you would need that. You know, then

1479
01:28:53,240 --> 01:28:55,599
Speaker 1: you get to the other issues I think you know

1480
01:28:55,960 --> 01:28:59,880
Speaker 1: with with statehood. You know, I actually think DC import

1481
01:29:00,040 --> 01:29:03,479
Speaker 1: Rico together make a lot of sense. I think Puerto

1482
01:29:03,560 --> 01:29:07,000
Speaker 1: ric yes, DC probably Leans going to be likely democratic.

1483
01:29:07,040 --> 01:29:10,639
Speaker 1: I think Puerto Rico not so much. And I think

1484
01:29:10,680 --> 01:29:14,439
Speaker 1: you could argue that maybe do you create a Caribbean state,

1485
01:29:14,720 --> 01:29:17,240
Speaker 1: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, all of the American

1486
01:29:17,320 --> 01:29:19,160
Speaker 1: territories down there into one state. I could make an

1487
01:29:19,240 --> 01:29:23,479
Speaker 1: argument for that as well, so that they're not essentially

1488
01:29:23,600 --> 01:29:27,840
Speaker 1: second class US citizens in the Virgin Islands. So you

1489
01:29:27,840 --> 01:29:36,800
Speaker 1: could do that. It's interesting on the size disparities about

1490
01:29:36,840 --> 01:29:40,519
Speaker 1: that are the disparities in the House and the Senate. Look,

1491
01:29:40,560 --> 01:29:42,639
Speaker 1: there's no doubt That's why I think increasing the size

1492
01:29:42,640 --> 01:29:45,800
Speaker 1: of the House, at least on the electoral college, by

1493
01:29:45,800 --> 01:29:48,160
Speaker 1: the way, just to give you that ratio if you

1494
01:29:48,240 --> 01:29:50,760
Speaker 1: do that, and right now, Wyoming has six times the

1495
01:29:50,840 --> 01:29:52,840
Speaker 1: voting power for president than the state of than an

1496
01:29:52,840 --> 01:29:55,479
Speaker 1: average voter in California. A voter in Wyoming has more

1497
01:29:55,520 --> 01:29:59,720
Speaker 1: impact on who's our next president than a voter in California. Now,

1498
01:30:00,000 --> 01:30:03,120
Speaker 1: founders always didn't want the big states to dominate, but

1499
01:30:03,160 --> 01:30:04,640
Speaker 1: I don't know if they wanted the small states to

1500
01:30:04,680 --> 01:30:07,840
Speaker 1: have six times the advantage of the big states. Under

1501
01:30:07,880 --> 01:30:10,040
Speaker 1: my system here with the with an uncap in the

1502
01:30:10,080 --> 01:30:13,360
Speaker 1: House going to point oh three, the current electoral college

1503
01:30:13,400 --> 01:30:16,200
Speaker 1: would put Wyoming at about it a point oh about

1504
01:30:16,200 --> 01:30:18,400
Speaker 1: two and a half times the power of a voter

1505
01:30:18,520 --> 01:30:23,400
Speaker 1: in California, which actually feels about about what if you

1506
01:30:23,560 --> 01:30:25,720
Speaker 1: if you read what the Founders were going for in

1507
01:30:25,760 --> 01:30:27,799
Speaker 1: this fear of the big states small states and creating

1508
01:30:27,800 --> 01:30:33,080
Speaker 1: this balance that feels like a more proper ratio that

1509
01:30:33,120 --> 01:30:35,840
Speaker 1: would fall into that. But I do think money, I

1510
01:30:35,920 --> 01:30:39,800
Speaker 1: think I definitely think we need to figure out how

1511
01:30:39,840 --> 01:30:46,040
Speaker 1: to eliminate an individual's pardon power on this front, right,

1512
01:30:46,320 --> 01:30:49,840
Speaker 1: that is that is corruptible. We've learned what's corruptible. I

1513
01:30:49,880 --> 01:30:54,320
Speaker 1: mean the I've always wanted to say this. I think

1514
01:30:54,360 --> 01:30:57,080
Speaker 1: the the upside of the Trump era is that it's

1515
01:30:57,120 --> 01:30:59,479
Speaker 1: served as an MRI I, an MRI I on people.

1516
01:30:59,600 --> 01:31:02,240
Speaker 1: We've learned, and you know, we've learned who you know,

1517
01:31:02,280 --> 01:31:05,479
Speaker 1: who has principles? Who doesn't you know who cares about power,

1518
01:31:06,040 --> 01:31:08,559
Speaker 1: you know, ends justify the means, all that business. But

1519
01:31:08,600 --> 01:31:11,759
Speaker 1: it's also been an MRI for frankly, vulnerabilities in our system.

1520
01:31:12,800 --> 01:31:14,680
Speaker 1: And I think we've we've seen that. I'll give you

1521
01:31:14,720 --> 01:31:17,080
Speaker 1: another one that you didn't require her, but it feeds

1522
01:31:17,080 --> 01:31:20,240
Speaker 1: off of the pam Bondi news. I think we have

1523
01:31:20,240 --> 01:31:23,240
Speaker 1: to figure out how to how to constitutionally make our

1524
01:31:23,320 --> 01:31:28,759
Speaker 1: Justice Department independent. And that doesn't mean the president doesn't

1525
01:31:28,760 --> 01:31:30,679
Speaker 1: have a say in the appointment. That doesn't mean Congress

1526
01:31:30,680 --> 01:31:33,000
Speaker 1: doesn't have a say in the appointment. But I think

1527
01:31:33,000 --> 01:31:37,639
Speaker 1: we need something here that at least creates some political

1528
01:31:37,680 --> 01:31:40,680
Speaker 1: distance between the president and the Attorney general, because it's

1529
01:31:40,720 --> 01:31:45,720
Speaker 1: pretty clear that we know. Just remember, you may notock Pambondi,

1530
01:31:46,160 --> 01:31:50,080
Speaker 1: but President Trump didn't likely didn't fire her for the

1531
01:31:50,120 --> 01:31:52,400
Speaker 1: reasons that most of you think she should be fired.

1532
01:31:52,760 --> 01:31:55,240
Speaker 1: Fired her because she wasn't being protector and doing his

1533
01:31:55,720 --> 01:32:00,640
Speaker 1: doing his bidding well enough. And that is something I

1534
01:32:00,640 --> 01:32:02,559
Speaker 1: think we all have to keep in mind. You cannot

1535
01:32:02,680 --> 01:32:05,000
Speaker 1: you cannot have that kind of that kind of close

1536
01:32:05,000 --> 01:32:08,679
Speaker 1: connection there. So that would be one other I would

1537
01:32:08,760 --> 01:32:13,800
Speaker 1: add to your list here. But boy, I really I

1538
01:32:13,840 --> 01:32:16,760
Speaker 1: am as you will note in my answer, I'm obsessed

1539
01:32:16,800 --> 01:32:20,320
Speaker 1: with uncapping the House. I think before we try any

1540
01:32:20,320 --> 01:32:24,560
Speaker 1: other reform on small D democratic representation, I want to

1541
01:32:24,600 --> 01:32:27,240
Speaker 1: see that, implement it first, and then let's see how

1542
01:32:27,720 --> 01:32:29,920
Speaker 1: the system sorts itself out. I think it opens the

1543
01:32:29,920 --> 01:32:31,920
Speaker 1: door for more political parties. I think it opens the

1544
01:32:31,960 --> 01:32:34,120
Speaker 1: door for more coalition governments. I think it opens the

1545
01:32:34,160 --> 01:32:38,559
Speaker 1: door for more of the country to feel they have

1546
01:32:38,640 --> 01:32:42,280
Speaker 1: some representation in Congress. Right in the same way media

1547
01:32:42,320 --> 01:32:45,680
Speaker 1: became too nationalized if we gutted local, our politics has

1548
01:32:45,680 --> 01:32:49,799
Speaker 1: become due nationalized because we've essentially gutted local and uncapping

1549
01:32:49,880 --> 01:32:53,760
Speaker 1: the House, I think would rebalance that all right. Like

1550
01:32:53,800 --> 01:32:56,639
Speaker 1: I said, you touched one of my You touched one

1551
01:32:56,640 --> 01:32:59,960
Speaker 1: of my nerves. Next question comes from Austin. From Austin,

1552
01:33:00,240 --> 01:33:03,280
Speaker 1: I think you're I think Austin, you're getting awfully close

1553
01:33:03,320 --> 01:33:06,120
Speaker 1: to being a member of the toodcast five timers club.

1554
01:33:07,120 --> 01:33:09,479
Speaker 1: Can you imagine a major party federal candidate with the

1555
01:33:09,479 --> 01:33:12,240
Speaker 1: discipline to run on one structural reform like expanding the

1556
01:33:12,240 --> 01:33:15,080
Speaker 1: House and focus only on that, arguing it unlocks everything

1557
01:33:15,080 --> 01:33:18,000
Speaker 1: else downstream? Or does political gravity always pull candidates into

1558
01:33:18,040 --> 01:33:20,719
Speaker 1: other issues and positions before they can fix the foundation.

1559
01:33:21,120 --> 01:33:23,200
Speaker 1: Can that kind of candidate even exist or are we

1560
01:33:23,320 --> 01:33:25,519
Speaker 1: just not ready for that as a country. By the way,

1561
01:33:25,520 --> 01:33:28,080
Speaker 1: I loved your point about Democrats needing more moderates independence

1562
01:33:28,080 --> 01:33:30,280
Speaker 1: than the GOP because of the numbers. I've learned a

1563
01:33:30,280 --> 01:33:34,559
Speaker 1: lot from your show. Thanks. You know, here's the problem

1564
01:33:34,560 --> 01:33:39,679
Speaker 1: with running on reform, especially in a in a bad

1565
01:33:39,720 --> 01:33:42,160
Speaker 1: economic environment, which I think right now we're in a

1566
01:33:42,160 --> 01:33:46,400
Speaker 1: bad economic environment that's about to get worse. Is that

1567
01:33:46,560 --> 01:33:51,320
Speaker 1: a majority of voters, ultimately, right, we are we are,

1568
01:33:50,760 --> 01:33:53,840
Speaker 1: we are, We are all selfish as voters. And I

1569
01:33:53,840 --> 01:33:56,000
Speaker 1: don't mean that as a criticism, I just mean that

1570
01:33:56,040 --> 01:33:58,960
Speaker 1: as a reality. Right, our lives need to be better

1571
01:33:59,000 --> 01:34:07,599
Speaker 1: at the moment, and you know, making ends meet and

1572
01:34:07,680 --> 01:34:10,200
Speaker 1: worrying about the future of the democracy. Right, Just if

1573
01:34:10,240 --> 01:34:12,240
Speaker 1: you're more worried about making ends meet, it doesn't mean

1574
01:34:12,240 --> 01:34:17,680
Speaker 1: you're you're you don't care about the democracy, but you

1575
01:34:17,760 --> 01:34:22,360
Speaker 1: sort of you have a priority list. I personally think

1576
01:34:22,479 --> 01:34:25,479
Speaker 1: that a one issue candidate is more effective in Senate

1577
01:34:25,520 --> 01:34:28,160
Speaker 1: and House races than a one issue candidate for president.

1578
01:34:29,080 --> 01:34:31,920
Speaker 1: Now you can get to the point, you know, and

1579
01:34:31,960 --> 01:34:34,680
Speaker 1: a one is you candidate for governor even is a

1580
01:34:34,720 --> 01:34:38,240
Speaker 1: possibility you can get to a point and our system

1581
01:34:38,280 --> 01:34:40,559
Speaker 1: can get so broken that we may you know, in

1582
01:34:40,560 --> 01:34:43,400
Speaker 1: some ways that is that was the promise of Ross Perrot.

1583
01:34:43,479 --> 01:34:45,120
Speaker 1: If you go back, there was this idea that he

1584
01:34:45,200 --> 01:34:47,519
Speaker 1: was just gonna he was really you know, he's like,

1585
01:34:47,560 --> 01:34:50,400
Speaker 1: we got two giant problems, giant sucking sound of jobs

1586
01:34:50,439 --> 01:34:52,719
Speaker 1: going south. At the time, it was the outsourcing south.

1587
01:34:53,240 --> 01:34:58,400
Speaker 1: Eventually it was obviously outsourced Southeast Asia from there and

1588
01:34:58,439 --> 01:35:02,599
Speaker 1: the debt. Right, So you know, he tried, but it

1589
01:35:02,640 --> 01:35:05,200
Speaker 1: was when he had to respond to other issues that

1590
01:35:05,280 --> 01:35:06,840
Speaker 1: he would start to get in trouble, whether it was

1591
01:35:06,960 --> 01:35:10,840
Speaker 1: issues of diversity, issues of foreign policy. Right, we just

1592
01:35:10,960 --> 01:35:14,439
Speaker 1: know a president, unfortunately a president, and we've just all

1593
01:35:14,520 --> 01:35:16,599
Speaker 1: learned this the hard way, right, And I mean, look

1594
01:35:17,760 --> 01:35:22,880
Speaker 1: at the two thousand election, and go look at all

1595
01:35:22,880 --> 01:35:25,200
Speaker 1: the questions that were asked about Osama bin Laden during

1596
01:35:25,200 --> 01:35:31,799
Speaker 1: the debates. Right, we didn't really we didn't really prepare

1597
01:35:31,840 --> 01:35:34,040
Speaker 1: either Al Gore or George W. Bush with questions that

1598
01:35:34,160 --> 01:35:36,839
Speaker 1: were going to be a part of their next president

1599
01:35:37,080 --> 01:35:40,800
Speaker 1: of the next presidency. And it's just inevitable that you're

1600
01:35:40,840 --> 01:35:42,400
Speaker 1: just going to have all sorts of other things. So

1601
01:35:42,439 --> 01:35:44,760
Speaker 1: I think it's much more difficult for a president to

1602
01:35:44,760 --> 01:35:47,679
Speaker 1: do that. That doesn't mean they can't run on a movement.

1603
01:35:47,880 --> 01:35:49,880
Speaker 1: That doesn't mean they can't run like, look, we've got

1604
01:35:49,960 --> 01:35:52,479
Speaker 1: to fix the infant you know, you know, instead of

1605
01:35:52,800 --> 01:35:54,840
Speaker 1: running on building roads and bridges, we've got to run

1606
01:35:54,840 --> 01:35:58,760
Speaker 1: on fixing the infrastructure of the democracy. But I think

1607
01:35:58,760 --> 01:36:00,800
Speaker 1: you have to connect it to people everyday lives that

1608
01:36:00,840 --> 01:36:03,639
Speaker 1: this is going to improve their lives economically right away.

1609
01:36:04,680 --> 01:36:08,519
Speaker 1: If you don't have that paired with the reform, you're

1610
01:36:08,560 --> 01:36:11,240
Speaker 1: not going to get there to do the reform. And

1611
01:36:11,320 --> 01:36:14,960
Speaker 1: I think that's the current and that's due to the

1612
01:36:14,960 --> 01:36:18,200
Speaker 1: current climate we're in now. Look if your economy goes

1613
01:36:18,360 --> 01:36:20,559
Speaker 1: really into the toilet, look at what happened in Argentina,

1614
01:36:20,560 --> 01:36:23,240
Speaker 1: where a guy like Malay was able to that. You know,

1615
01:36:23,479 --> 01:36:27,320
Speaker 1: what he was advocating would have been extraordinarily unpopular, you know,

1616
01:36:27,920 --> 01:36:31,400
Speaker 1: until there's a feeling of desperation. And I don't think

1617
01:36:32,320 --> 01:36:35,680
Speaker 1: we're not there yet on that front. So I'm not

1618
01:36:35,760 --> 01:36:38,920
Speaker 1: quite there on a single issue candidate succeeding on the

1619
01:36:38,920 --> 01:36:42,519
Speaker 1: presidential level, but I could I could see it. I

1620
01:36:42,560 --> 01:36:46,040
Speaker 1: could see a US senator, US senate candidate or even

1621
01:36:46,439 --> 01:36:55,160
Speaker 1: a House candidate pulling that off. I do. So let's

1622
01:36:55,160 --> 01:36:58,640
Speaker 1: just see, you know, at some point, right I you

1623
01:36:58,640 --> 01:37:02,240
Speaker 1: know this is the the downside, right, you know, this

1624
01:37:02,320 --> 01:37:08,639
Speaker 1: presidency's going terribly. He's cratering the world economy and it'll

1625
01:37:08,640 --> 01:37:12,840
Speaker 1: inevitably make the economy front and center. And so while

1626
01:37:14,160 --> 01:37:16,280
Speaker 1: we want to have the intellectual arguments and debates that hey,

1627
01:37:16,320 --> 01:37:18,479
Speaker 1: we need all these structural reforms, if you don't want

1628
01:37:18,479 --> 01:37:22,400
Speaker 1: this to happen again, I think the voter's attention is

1629
01:37:22,400 --> 01:37:24,880
Speaker 1: going to be on the on what's in front of them, right, So,

1630
01:37:24,920 --> 01:37:28,519
Speaker 1: I think figuring out how to pair reform with economic

1631
01:37:28,560 --> 01:37:32,160
Speaker 1: stability is I think the key if you want to

1632
01:37:32,640 --> 01:37:38,880
Speaker 1: elect a reform agenda. Next question comes from Akash. I

1633
01:37:38,880 --> 01:37:40,680
Speaker 1: hope I got that right, and if I did, in

1634
01:37:40,760 --> 01:37:43,439
Speaker 1: my apologies, and please let us know how to pronounce

1635
01:37:43,439 --> 01:37:47,799
Speaker 1: it correctly. Akash rights Hi Chuck with talk of potential

1636
01:37:47,840 --> 01:37:49,880
Speaker 1: blue wave in midterms twenty twenty six, is at risk

1637
01:37:49,920 --> 01:37:51,720
Speaker 1: of the same kind of miscalculation we saw in the

1638
01:37:51,720 --> 01:37:54,479
Speaker 1: midterms twenty twenty two, when a widely expected red wave

1639
01:37:54,520 --> 01:37:57,240
Speaker 1: didn't materialize, especially since affordability is a central issue in

1640
01:37:57,280 --> 01:38:00,600
Speaker 1: both cycles. Regards oh I thought you were going to

1641
01:38:00,640 --> 01:38:03,000
Speaker 1: go in another direction with this question, which is what

1642
01:38:03,120 --> 01:38:05,120
Speaker 1: the Democrats learned the wrong lessons like they did in

1643
01:38:05,160 --> 01:38:08,280
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty two midterms. Right, they overperformed, and Joe

1644
01:38:08,280 --> 01:38:12,040
Speaker 1: Biden incorrectly thought this was a reaffirmation of his policies

1645
01:38:12,040 --> 01:38:14,439
Speaker 1: and presidency. It was not. It was just literally a

1646
01:38:14,479 --> 01:38:21,759
Speaker 1: repudiation of the meganominees in key states and key races. Anyway,

1647
01:38:21,840 --> 01:38:25,080
Speaker 1: the point as for look, I do think blue wave,

1648
01:38:25,240 --> 01:38:28,880
Speaker 1: right wave is in the eye of the beholder. Fifteen

1649
01:38:28,920 --> 01:38:31,519
Speaker 1: to twenty seat gained by House Democrats is a wave

1650
01:38:31,600 --> 01:38:38,360
Speaker 1: in this kind of structure that we're in with the gerrymandering. Ultimately,

1651
01:38:38,680 --> 01:38:41,360
Speaker 1: I have you know, if you're gonna ask me how

1652
01:38:41,400 --> 01:38:44,680
Speaker 1: to measure the wave. I always I've been saying, go

1653
01:38:44,720 --> 01:38:49,040
Speaker 1: to the state of Iowa. If Democrats sweep Gov. Senate

1654
01:38:49,200 --> 01:38:51,639
Speaker 1: and two House seats out of that state, or even

1655
01:38:51,880 --> 01:38:54,000
Speaker 1: GOV and two House seats and come really close in

1656
01:38:54,040 --> 01:38:56,599
Speaker 1: the Senate, but they got to win something statewide in Iowa,

1657
01:38:57,040 --> 01:38:58,760
Speaker 1: probably two. But if they do that, that to me

1658
01:38:58,840 --> 01:39:01,439
Speaker 1: is the definition of that means we there was a wave,

1659
01:39:01,560 --> 01:39:03,920
Speaker 1: right because you've taken a light red state like Iowa

1660
01:39:03,920 --> 01:39:07,040
Speaker 1: and flipped blue. How many light red states essentially elect

1661
01:39:07,080 --> 01:39:10,439
Speaker 1: blue like blue is governor, blue is senator, but really

1662
01:39:10,479 --> 01:39:13,640
Speaker 1: a senator. So if both Iowa and Ohio flip and

1663
01:39:13,680 --> 01:39:16,920
Speaker 1: the Senate, then I think that that's a wave, even

1664
01:39:16,960 --> 01:39:20,360
Speaker 1: if it's even if it feels narrow and it's fifteen, right,

1665
01:39:20,400 --> 01:39:23,080
Speaker 1: you know, gone of the days of the sixty house

1666
01:39:23,120 --> 01:39:27,000
Speaker 1: swing or the forty house swing, et cetera. So that's why.

1667
01:39:27,040 --> 01:39:30,800
Speaker 1: But the question is is it the misinterpretation?

1668
01:39:30,960 --> 01:39:31,120
Speaker 2: Right?

1669
01:39:31,160 --> 01:39:35,160
Speaker 1: I So it's possible, there's a also there, and there's

1670
01:39:35,280 --> 01:39:38,720
Speaker 1: you know, it's possible that Republicans hold on to the

1671
01:39:38,760 --> 01:39:44,080
Speaker 1: Senate just because this is such a tough map for Democrats,

1672
01:39:44,120 --> 01:39:47,720
Speaker 1: and yet you know, they could misread what it is.

1673
01:39:47,760 --> 01:39:51,240
Speaker 1: So it's look, I think I do think there's probably

1674
01:39:51,400 --> 01:39:55,759
Speaker 1: too much enthusiasm at the moment for Democrats sweeping, meaning

1675
01:39:55,800 --> 01:39:58,840
Speaker 1: winning both the House and the Senate. I know the

1676
01:39:58,880 --> 01:40:02,200
Speaker 1: prediction markets are are now have Democrats with over a

1677
01:40:02,200 --> 01:40:05,200
Speaker 1: fifty percent chance of doing it. I'm pretty close. In

1678
01:40:05,240 --> 01:40:08,560
Speaker 1: this environment, we're a war, you got a global recession

1679
01:40:08,680 --> 01:40:12,960
Speaker 1: and stagflation and inflation all doing right. That's that's a

1680
01:40:13,000 --> 01:40:19,960
Speaker 1: recipe for just a for the incumbent party to get smoked,

1681
01:40:21,880 --> 01:40:23,800
Speaker 1: and so I could, you know, but that doesn't mean

1682
01:40:23,800 --> 01:40:28,479
Speaker 1: every race isn't narrow in that situation. So but as

1683
01:40:28,479 --> 01:40:31,760
Speaker 1: far as miscalculation, I think that I could see if

1684
01:40:31,920 --> 01:40:35,800
Speaker 1: Republicans hang on to the Senate them not realizing how

1685
01:40:35,880 --> 01:40:38,600
Speaker 1: much of a problem that they still really have. And

1686
01:40:38,680 --> 01:40:41,920
Speaker 1: I could see Democrats over reading, you know that, winning there,

1687
01:40:42,040 --> 01:40:44,800
Speaker 1: but then keeping their same leadership in place and kind

1688
01:40:44,840 --> 01:40:47,960
Speaker 1: of nominating the same type of Democrat and having the

1689
01:40:47,960 --> 01:40:51,160
Speaker 1: same you know, just deciding that hey, just running against

1690
01:40:51,200 --> 01:40:53,880
Speaker 1: Trump works and let's just keep running against Trump. Right,

1691
01:40:55,560 --> 01:40:59,360
Speaker 1: So those are the to me, those are the risks

1692
01:41:00,160 --> 01:41:12,719
Speaker 1: that both parties have facing this this midterm. Next question

1693
01:41:12,760 --> 01:41:17,320
Speaker 1: comes from Adam David Florida be in West Virginia. Question

1694
01:41:17,439 --> 01:41:22,040
Speaker 1: is this, should Ukraine attempt to strike Iran through southern

1695
01:41:22,120 --> 01:41:24,960
Speaker 1: Russia into the Caspian Sea and hit the north side

1696
01:41:24,960 --> 01:41:27,439
Speaker 1: of Iran. Iran is no friend of Ukraine and has

1697
01:41:27,479 --> 01:41:30,920
Speaker 1: limited retaliatory options. Trump is complaining that nobody will come

1698
01:41:30,960 --> 01:41:33,120
Speaker 1: help him, But if Ukraine joined in, would Trump be

1699
01:41:33,120 --> 01:41:35,439
Speaker 1: a little nicer to them? Actually doubt it, as he

1700
01:41:35,479 --> 01:41:38,479
Speaker 1: only begrudgingly helps Ukraine because he hates Zelenski for not

1701
01:41:38,520 --> 01:41:41,280
Speaker 1: helping him with the Biden request that got him impeached

1702
01:41:41,320 --> 01:41:43,599
Speaker 1: the first time, and his eyes. Ukraine therefore can do

1703
01:41:43,680 --> 01:41:45,800
Speaker 1: no right. On a sports note, grown up in Miami,

1704
01:41:45,800 --> 01:41:48,160
Speaker 1: why aren't you a Dolphins fan? I've been a diehard

1705
01:41:48,560 --> 01:41:50,400
Speaker 1: for the Finns since twenty twenty three and we need

1706
01:41:50,439 --> 01:41:52,759
Speaker 1: all the help we can get best Adam and David Florida,

1707
01:41:52,880 --> 01:41:56,400
Speaker 1: where I believe the Dolphins then at the home of

1708
01:41:56,439 --> 01:42:00,680
Speaker 1: their training camp. I think it's not my apologies for

1709
01:42:00,720 --> 01:42:04,320
Speaker 1: messing that up, Oh Adam. I've gotten letters from my

1710
01:42:04,360 --> 01:42:07,639
Speaker 1: friends that work at the Dolphins hopeful that I will

1711
01:42:07,680 --> 01:42:10,640
Speaker 1: get fired up. I got invited when Obama hosted the

1712
01:42:11,520 --> 01:42:13,880
Speaker 1: seventy two Dolphins the living members of the seventy two

1713
01:42:13,960 --> 01:42:17,000
Speaker 1: undefeated team, because I was a Dolphins fan, and I said, look,

1714
01:42:17,040 --> 01:42:19,200
Speaker 1: I appreciate you thinking of me as a Miami person,

1715
01:42:19,240 --> 01:42:24,240
Speaker 1: but I wasn't my You know, we all are the

1716
01:42:24,680 --> 01:42:28,800
Speaker 1: father and son relationship, right. My father was a huge

1717
01:42:28,800 --> 01:42:34,559
Speaker 1: Packer fan, and he basically indoctrinated me into the Packer fandom.

1718
01:42:34,600 --> 01:42:40,960
Speaker 1: The first It's Possible, my first chapter book as a

1719
01:42:41,160 --> 01:42:44,240
Speaker 1: as a kid, was Instant Replay by Jerry Kramer Okay,

1720
01:42:44,280 --> 01:42:48,680
Speaker 1: which is a story about a season under Lombardi in

1721
01:42:48,720 --> 01:42:52,360
Speaker 1: the early sixties, and the second book might have been

1722
01:42:52,439 --> 01:42:55,760
Speaker 1: Run to Daylight, which was Lombardi's sort of one of

1723
01:42:55,760 --> 01:42:58,479
Speaker 1: those you know, how do you do it? Books? You

1724
01:42:58,479 --> 01:43:03,280
Speaker 1: know that come very popular with coaches, or did for

1725
01:43:03,320 --> 01:43:04,880
Speaker 1: a period of time in the eighties and nineties. We

1726
01:43:04,880 --> 01:43:07,960
Speaker 1: don't have those, right, We don't have those coach books anymore.

1727
01:43:08,040 --> 01:43:10,000
Speaker 1: Though they would usually come out while they were coaches.

1728
01:43:10,040 --> 01:43:17,519
Speaker 1: There's been less of that lately. And my father and Grant,

1729
01:43:17,800 --> 01:43:21,920
Speaker 1: my father believed the Dolphins and Joe Robbie, who was

1730
01:43:21,960 --> 01:43:24,439
Speaker 1: the owner, the original owner of the Dolphins, were ripping

1731
01:43:24,439 --> 01:43:27,479
Speaker 1: off the Hurricanes of concessions money back when they were

1732
01:43:27,600 --> 01:43:29,880
Speaker 1: shared the Orange Bowl, which was a fact they were

1733
01:43:29,960 --> 01:43:33,000
Speaker 1: doing it. The Dolphins made more money off of the

1734
01:43:33,040 --> 01:43:35,840
Speaker 1: Miami Hurricanes success in the eighties than the Hurricanes did,

1735
01:43:37,920 --> 01:43:43,200
Speaker 1: and that used to irk my father. But if you really,

1736
01:43:43,360 --> 01:43:46,479
Speaker 1: you know, I've always he's never he never said this.

1737
01:43:46,560 --> 01:43:49,920
Speaker 1: He passed away in the late eighties. But let's just say,

1738
01:43:49,920 --> 01:43:52,400
Speaker 1: as I've grown up, learned more and realized that Joe

1739
01:43:52,439 --> 01:43:54,640
Speaker 1: Robbie was a failed Democratic candidate for Congress in the

1740
01:43:54,680 --> 01:43:57,000
Speaker 1: late fifties in Minnesota. There's a part of me that

1741
01:43:57,080 --> 01:43:59,360
Speaker 1: always thought my father just wasn't a Dolphins fed because

1742
01:43:59,400 --> 01:44:02,040
Speaker 1: of Robbi's posolitics. But I'm going to I'm good to

1743
01:44:02,120 --> 01:44:05,439
Speaker 1: set that aside. I love being a Packer fan. I

1744
01:44:07,000 --> 01:44:10,240
Speaker 1: I don't have I don't have negative feelings about the Dolphins.

1745
01:44:10,320 --> 01:44:15,280
Speaker 1: I I just don't have that. You know, when you

1746
01:44:16,080 --> 01:44:18,639
Speaker 1: and the thing is is a kid the good news,

1747
01:44:18,720 --> 01:44:20,680
Speaker 1: you know, being a Packer fan was terrible. I was

1748
01:44:20,720 --> 01:44:22,720
Speaker 1: the only Packer fan in my maid. Was sort of

1749
01:44:22,760 --> 01:44:25,160
Speaker 1: a badge of honor, so you start to carry it.

1750
01:44:25,240 --> 01:44:27,519
Speaker 1: And that was something I passed on to my son.

1751
01:44:27,560 --> 01:44:29,599
Speaker 1: I wasn't going to let him become a Commander's fan

1752
01:44:29,680 --> 01:44:32,800
Speaker 1: in the heart of his childhood. I mean, who's going

1753
01:44:32,840 --> 01:44:34,879
Speaker 1: to torture their kid to make him be a Washington

1754
01:44:35,000 --> 01:44:38,519
Speaker 1: command football team fan. Back in the last thirty years,

1755
01:44:38,560 --> 01:44:42,720
Speaker 1: it's been a disaster. My son's eighteen. It's literally it

1756
01:44:42,920 --> 01:44:45,519
Speaker 1: took him until he was seventeen before the Commanders even

1757
01:44:45,560 --> 01:44:52,200
Speaker 1: put on a competitive football team. So so I've successfully

1758
01:44:52,240 --> 01:44:54,559
Speaker 1: indoctrinated him into the Packers. Of course, Packers have been

1759
01:44:54,600 --> 01:44:58,400
Speaker 1: good during his childhood. They were fun during my childhood.

1760
01:44:58,400 --> 01:45:02,360
Speaker 1: With lind Dickey, but they weren't the best, so there

1761
01:45:02,400 --> 01:45:06,720
Speaker 1: it is. But hey, I think this owner of the

1762
01:45:06,760 --> 01:45:08,600
Speaker 1: Dolphins is better than the last couple of owners of

1763
01:45:08,600 --> 01:45:12,479
Speaker 1: the Dolphins. So mister Ross, he wants to win, and

1764
01:45:12,520 --> 01:45:16,120
Speaker 1: that's step one of having the right owner. I am

1765
01:45:16,200 --> 01:45:18,799
Speaker 1: impressed with what he's done with the stadium. He treats

1766
01:45:18,840 --> 01:45:21,839
Speaker 1: the University of Miami very well in their shared stadium experience.

1767
01:45:22,040 --> 01:45:23,960
Speaker 1: It doesn't mean I think it's a great idea for

1768
01:45:24,000 --> 01:45:26,880
Speaker 1: the Hurricanes to be forty five minutes right, you know,

1769
01:45:26,920 --> 01:45:29,200
Speaker 1: four thousand miles away from campus to play their home

1770
01:45:29,240 --> 01:45:33,280
Speaker 1: football games. But I digress. Now, as for your question

1771
01:45:33,320 --> 01:45:36,200
Speaker 1: about Zelenski, First of all, kudos to you for realizing

1772
01:45:36,240 --> 01:45:41,120
Speaker 1: why his issue with Zelenski. It's all about what you said, right.

1773
01:45:41,800 --> 01:45:45,519
Speaker 1: He blames Zelenski for his political problems, and he figures

1774
01:45:45,880 --> 01:45:48,559
Speaker 1: in Zelenski didn't do his bidding right. It's the same

1775
01:45:48,600 --> 01:45:51,519
Speaker 1: reason why he fired Pambond. He didn't fire fire her

1776
01:45:51,560 --> 01:45:54,559
Speaker 1: for all the reasons that nine thousand other people thought

1777
01:45:54,600 --> 01:45:57,040
Speaker 1: she should have been fired. He fired her because she

1778
01:45:57,160 --> 01:46:01,479
Speaker 1: didn't do his bidding very well. And that obviously is

1779
01:46:02,040 --> 01:46:05,960
Speaker 1: look Zelensky has been and Ukraine has already actually been

1780
01:46:06,040 --> 01:46:08,559
Speaker 1: quite helpful in figuring out how to deal with drone

1781
01:46:08,560 --> 01:46:11,880
Speaker 1: attacks and and undermine this. And so you know, the

1782
01:46:11,960 --> 01:46:15,160
Speaker 1: amount that everybody's learned on drone warfare is thanks to

1783
01:46:15,240 --> 01:46:21,120
Speaker 1: the thanks to Zelenski. And I've long wondered why somebody

1784
01:46:21,120 --> 01:46:23,599
Speaker 1: hasn't gotten to didn't get to President Trump and say,

1785
01:46:23,640 --> 01:46:28,000
Speaker 1: you know, it's Iran that's helping Russia with these drones.

1786
01:46:29,560 --> 01:46:33,439
Speaker 1: But it doesn't matter, right, Everything is a transaction to him.

1787
01:46:33,600 --> 01:46:35,479
Speaker 1: I'm not going down the Putin road. It's just a

1788
01:46:35,479 --> 01:46:38,639
Speaker 1: transaction to him, although it does you know, all roads

1789
01:46:38,640 --> 01:46:42,040
Speaker 1: always seem to lead back to helping Putin. Even this war.

1790
01:46:42,080 --> 01:46:46,400
Speaker 1: The two biggest, two biggest beneficiaries of this war, of

1791
01:46:46,439 --> 01:46:52,960
Speaker 1: this miscalculation, uh here with Iran or Russia in China, right,

1792
01:46:53,040 --> 01:46:56,600
Speaker 1: and nobody is happier right now, as my guest this

1793
01:46:56,600 --> 01:47:01,400
Speaker 1: this last week on Newsphere said Daniel Jurgen's self satisfied

1794
01:47:01,479 --> 01:47:04,920
Speaker 1: smile that mister Putin has right now because he suddenly

1795
01:47:05,040 --> 01:47:09,320
Speaker 1: has a financial lifeline to fund his war against Ukraine.

1796
01:47:09,720 --> 01:47:11,840
Speaker 1: But I could tell you the way you're thinking is

1797
01:47:11,880 --> 01:47:16,200
Speaker 1: the way Zelensky was thinking. He's been very leaning forward

1798
01:47:16,200 --> 01:47:18,120
Speaker 1: and trying to help. He did that tour of the

1799
01:47:18,120 --> 01:47:22,160
Speaker 1: Golf States, met with the heads of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar,

1800
01:47:22,520 --> 01:47:26,720
Speaker 1: basically saying, you know, whatever you need, whatever expertise you

1801
01:47:26,800 --> 01:47:29,960
Speaker 1: need in dealing with these drone strikes. You know you've

1802
01:47:29,960 --> 01:47:32,880
Speaker 1: got all the intelligence from US is that you want

1803
01:47:32,920 --> 01:47:37,200
Speaker 1: to have, so you know, I do think it's helped

1804
01:47:37,320 --> 01:47:42,400
Speaker 1: Ukraine's relationship with the Golf States, which could be important

1805
01:47:42,479 --> 01:47:46,720
Speaker 1: for nation building going forward. But there's no there's no

1806
01:47:46,840 --> 01:47:51,680
Speaker 1: convincing Donald Trump to help Zelensky. He absolutely sees it

1807
01:47:51,720 --> 01:47:58,440
Speaker 1: in personal terms. All right, Next question comes from Judd.

1808
01:48:00,040 --> 01:48:02,360
Speaker 1: Jed writes, love your podcast, and I would love your

1809
01:48:02,400 --> 01:48:04,680
Speaker 1: opinion on a crazy idea that I had. I love

1810
01:48:04,720 --> 01:48:08,320
Speaker 1: the crazy ideas. It's sort of what is Bill Simmons

1811
01:48:08,360 --> 01:48:10,080
Speaker 1: as one of my favorite little segments they'll do every

1812
01:48:10,080 --> 01:48:11,400
Speaker 1: once in a while, about once a year, is half

1813
01:48:11,439 --> 01:48:16,320
Speaker 1: baked ideas. So I'm all for them. How successful would

1814
01:48:16,320 --> 01:48:18,439
Speaker 1: a presidential canidate be if they promised to veto almost

1815
01:48:18,479 --> 01:48:21,519
Speaker 1: every piece of legislation reaching their desk, essentially forcing both

1816
01:48:21,560 --> 01:48:25,519
Speaker 1: parties to pass legislation to overcome with supermajorities, which could

1817
01:48:25,840 --> 01:48:29,360
Speaker 1: overcome presidential Vetos, I would say, almost to avoid Bush's

1818
01:48:29,360 --> 01:48:32,680
Speaker 1: no new taxes promise and allow legislation that just overcomes

1819
01:48:32,720 --> 01:48:35,840
Speaker 1: the Senate's filibuster. Could that be a successful way for

1820
01:48:35,880 --> 01:48:39,320
Speaker 1: a single executive leader to force Article one Congress to

1821
01:48:39,360 --> 01:48:42,680
Speaker 1: do their jobs and pass compromise legislation, especially if one

1822
01:48:42,720 --> 01:48:45,439
Speaker 1: party controls the presidency, the House, and the Senate. Maybe

1823
01:48:45,439 --> 01:48:47,400
Speaker 1: showing that it can be done will be enough to

1824
01:48:47,439 --> 01:48:50,760
Speaker 1: make it the norm instead of the exception. Cheers jud Jed.

1825
01:48:50,800 --> 01:48:54,080
Speaker 1: I love this idea. It feels like, okay, Congress, I

1826
01:48:54,080 --> 01:48:57,439
Speaker 1: mean it gets to It's what my solution was to

1827
01:48:57,479 --> 01:49:01,639
Speaker 1: the Senate judiciary gridlock, right, the buster of judges. Oh,

1828
01:49:02,080 --> 01:49:05,320
Speaker 1: sixty votes doesn't work, well, let's make it seventy five, right,

1829
01:49:05,720 --> 01:49:08,360
Speaker 1: Like make it harder, not easier. Oh no, we're going

1830
01:49:08,439 --> 01:49:13,639
Speaker 1: to make you. You know, if you're a teenager missus curfew.

1831
01:49:13,680 --> 01:49:15,760
Speaker 1: Do you make the curfew later or do you make

1832
01:49:15,800 --> 01:49:18,920
Speaker 1: the curfew earlier? Right? Do you make it easier to

1833
01:49:19,000 --> 01:49:20,920
Speaker 1: pass something if you can't get it done, or do

1834
01:49:20,920 --> 01:49:23,679
Speaker 1: you make it harder? You actually should make it harder.

1835
01:49:23,800 --> 01:49:30,920
Speaker 1: Everybody works harder. It's a terrific idea. I I the

1836
01:49:31,080 --> 01:49:39,200
Speaker 1: here's the real problem with your suggestion. The public hates Congress.

1837
01:49:39,360 --> 01:49:45,160
Speaker 1: They don't care that Congress doesn't work, and so it

1838
01:49:45,200 --> 01:49:48,679
Speaker 1: would take an education of the country to explain why

1839
01:49:48,760 --> 01:49:52,040
Speaker 1: Congress needs to be at the forefront and needs to

1840
01:49:52,040 --> 01:49:55,960
Speaker 1: be forced to learn how to work together. You know,

1841
01:49:56,080 --> 01:50:00,479
Speaker 1: there is one potential presidential candidate who I think might

1842
01:50:00,520 --> 01:50:04,920
Speaker 1: have might have agreed to run on with with something

1843
01:50:05,400 --> 01:50:08,559
Speaker 1: like this. That it's Mitch Daniels, former governor of Indiana.

1844
01:50:09,040 --> 01:50:11,960
Speaker 1: He's been the guy that's been going up against Trump

1845
01:50:12,000 --> 01:50:15,600
Speaker 1: to defend the Indiana State Senate Republicans who refused to

1846
01:50:15,640 --> 01:50:21,680
Speaker 1: do the redistricting. He is, he has got that that

1847
01:50:21,840 --> 01:50:24,360
Speaker 1: in him. In fact that there's a there's a part

1848
01:50:24,360 --> 01:50:28,559
Speaker 1: of me that almost wants to ring him up, friendly

1849
01:50:28,720 --> 01:50:32,759
Speaker 1: ish with him, ring him up and present this idea,

1850
01:50:33,080 --> 01:50:37,599
Speaker 1: here's your you've been you know, here's your presidential campaign

1851
01:50:38,840 --> 01:50:44,360
Speaker 1: platform to run on. But you know it it is

1852
01:50:46,680 --> 01:50:48,920
Speaker 1: it is. Uh. I don't know if it would work. Look,

1853
01:50:48,920 --> 01:50:52,639
Speaker 1: I think I think the better solution to force sort

1854
01:50:52,640 --> 01:50:58,000
Speaker 1: of Congress to work differently is to start electing more

1855
01:50:58,040 --> 01:51:02,040
Speaker 1: independence and force a reckoning where the independents create a

1856
01:51:02,080 --> 01:51:07,559
Speaker 1: folk room and are essentially their own veto over either party,

1857
01:51:07,640 --> 01:51:10,800
Speaker 1: whichever party has got the most extremists trying to run

1858
01:51:10,880 --> 01:51:14,120
Speaker 1: the place, be the you know, you'd be the sort

1859
01:51:14,120 --> 01:51:17,840
Speaker 1: of check and balance on that. But it takes winning, right,

1860
01:51:17,920 --> 01:51:20,040
Speaker 1: You can't just come close as an independent Canadate. You

1861
01:51:20,040 --> 01:51:23,439
Speaker 1: got to win some elections, you know, a Dan Osborne

1862
01:51:23,479 --> 01:51:26,640
Speaker 1: and a Seth Bodner and Lisa Murkowski, and you know,

1863
01:51:26,960 --> 01:51:31,960
Speaker 1: you start to get multiple independence winning who are comfortable

1864
01:51:32,439 --> 01:51:36,840
Speaker 1: essentially saying no to both major parties for a period

1865
01:51:36,840 --> 01:51:39,519
Speaker 1: of time and essentially making them court the court the middle.

1866
01:51:40,479 --> 01:51:42,920
Speaker 1: Because what you're getting at here is that the plurality

1867
01:51:42,960 --> 01:51:45,639
Speaker 1: of America is not represented in Congress. Right, forty five

1868
01:51:45,640 --> 01:51:49,879
Speaker 1: percent of of the country essentially call our self described

1869
01:51:50,439 --> 01:51:52,920
Speaker 1: or registered to voter as independen. It's not all of them, mean,

1870
01:51:52,960 --> 01:51:55,760
Speaker 1: they're not all centrist, but what they are is they're

1871
01:51:56,000 --> 01:52:00,200
Speaker 1: they're they're not partisans, right, They're not they're not they're

1872
01:52:00,240 --> 01:52:04,599
Speaker 1: not group thinkers. And I think that there's a feeling that,

1873
01:52:04,840 --> 01:52:07,160
Speaker 1: you know, only the special interests are getting represented. So

1874
01:52:07,400 --> 01:52:11,720
Speaker 1: I think that that's that's where their opportunity is, right,

1875
01:52:11,760 --> 01:52:14,599
Speaker 1: you know, you get your you know, Marie Glusen Camp

1876
01:52:14,600 --> 01:52:20,120
Speaker 1: Perez MGP you know, you're Lisa Murkowski's two to work

1877
01:52:20,160 --> 01:52:22,840
Speaker 1: with a group of other sort of like minded individuals,

1878
01:52:22,840 --> 01:52:28,200
Speaker 1: not necessarily like minded ideologically, but like minded structurally, you know,

1879
01:52:28,280 --> 01:52:31,760
Speaker 1: and how to make the place work better, but a fun,

1880
01:52:31,800 --> 01:52:37,639
Speaker 1: half baked idea. Jed all right, last question, Stafford, Downtown LA.

1881
01:52:37,920 --> 01:52:41,640
Speaker 1: I lock that you made the distinction. Downtown LA. Not

1882
01:52:41,640 --> 01:52:44,560
Speaker 1: not Malibu, not Santa Monica, not the Valley, not Pasadena,

1883
01:52:45,040 --> 01:52:47,799
Speaker 1: Downtown LA, not West Hollywood, not East Hollywood. Right, Downtown

1884
01:52:47,880 --> 01:52:52,920
Speaker 1: LA under rated neighborhood. You know, there used to be.

1885
01:52:52,960 --> 01:52:56,240
Speaker 1: I remember when we remember during the two thousand election

1886
01:52:56,840 --> 01:53:01,640
Speaker 1: and I was staying in downtown and everybody, all my

1887
01:53:01,680 --> 01:53:03,760
Speaker 1: Angelino friends, said, oh, that's the worst place to stay.

1888
01:53:03,760 --> 01:53:05,800
Speaker 1: You should be staying here. He's been staying there, And

1889
01:53:05,920 --> 01:53:09,160
Speaker 1: you realize that Downtown is not you know, Downtown's got little.

1890
01:53:09,360 --> 01:53:11,919
Speaker 1: I feel like it's gotten better over the years. Maybe

1891
01:53:12,000 --> 01:53:15,240
Speaker 1: you know, the arena, the Staple Centers being there has helped.

1892
01:53:15,360 --> 01:53:20,000
Speaker 1: But anyway, but I digress. Here's your question. I'm wondering

1893
01:53:20,080 --> 01:53:21,799
Speaker 1: what you think about how the Warren Iran will affect

1894
01:53:21,800 --> 01:53:23,680
Speaker 1: our ability to protect our interests in other parts of

1895
01:53:23,720 --> 01:53:27,000
Speaker 1: the world. Given that money munitions and personnel are finite.

1896
01:53:27,160 --> 01:53:29,400
Speaker 1: And the fact that Shijingping has said he wants to

1897
01:53:29,400 --> 01:53:31,680
Speaker 1: be able to invade Taiwan by twenty twenty seven, how

1898
01:53:31,760 --> 01:53:34,000
Speaker 1: much does our continued expenditure of each of these make

1899
01:53:34,080 --> 01:53:37,000
Speaker 1: us incapable of being prepared Elsewhere? I have read that

1900
01:53:37,040 --> 01:53:39,080
Speaker 1: our defense industry is nowhere near what it used to be,

1901
01:53:39,120 --> 01:53:42,280
Speaker 1: particularly in the manufacturing of munitions and in shipbuilding. All

1902
01:53:42,320 --> 01:53:44,400
Speaker 1: of these seem very troubling. If we were to lose

1903
01:53:44,400 --> 01:53:46,479
Speaker 1: our supply of the most advanced chips that are produced

1904
01:53:46,479 --> 01:53:49,639
Speaker 1: in Taiwan, it would be catastrophic to the United States economy. Also,

1905
01:53:49,800 --> 01:53:52,200
Speaker 1: thank you for your thoughts on March Madness. Thanks again

1906
01:53:52,240 --> 01:53:55,360
Speaker 1: for all the great work Stafford Downtown, LA. Thank you, sir,

1907
01:53:55,520 --> 01:54:01,000
Speaker 1: appreciate that. Look I of all all episodes for you

1908
01:54:01,040 --> 01:54:04,559
Speaker 1: to write in on this issue, right, Ike Frimen in

1909
01:54:04,600 --> 01:54:09,960
Speaker 1: his book about Taiwan and China being it, Yes, you have. Look,

1910
01:54:10,439 --> 01:54:15,799
Speaker 1: this is the great geopolitical risk that Donald Trump has

1911
01:54:16,040 --> 01:54:20,000
Speaker 1: I mean no, this is the first American president in

1912
01:54:20,000 --> 01:54:25,520
Speaker 1: my lifetime that seems to be comfortable handing over America's

1913
01:54:25,600 --> 01:54:29,120
Speaker 1: leader leadership role in the world, and he's put it

1914
01:54:29,160 --> 01:54:31,120
Speaker 1: at risk. In ways that I don't think. You know,

1915
01:54:33,200 --> 01:54:35,720
Speaker 1: it's interesting. There's certainly plenty of people worried about it,

1916
01:54:35,760 --> 01:54:37,760
Speaker 1: given the rhetoric he was using in twenty fifteen and

1917
01:54:37,800 --> 01:54:40,120
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, and some of his behavior in twenty seventeen

1918
01:54:40,160 --> 01:54:43,240
Speaker 1: and twenty eighteen. But I think we all never thought

1919
01:54:43,400 --> 01:54:48,040
Speaker 1: that he would he would just do something this risky,

1920
01:54:49,400 --> 01:54:51,960
Speaker 1: and he has done something this risky, and he's a

1921
01:54:52,960 --> 01:54:58,240
Speaker 1: you know, he's essentially newtered NATO at the moment. NATO's

1922
01:54:58,320 --> 01:55:03,040
Speaker 1: not dead, is you know, when when the current American

1923
01:55:03,080 --> 01:55:05,720
Speaker 1: president has no is an interest in NATO, then NATO

1924
01:55:05,840 --> 01:55:10,760
Speaker 1: is not an effective organization at the moment. I'm certainly

1925
01:55:10,800 --> 01:55:14,440
Speaker 1: worried that Shijingping is going to look is going to

1926
01:55:14,480 --> 01:55:16,960
Speaker 1: see this moment if he does, if he wants to

1927
01:55:17,000 --> 01:55:19,839
Speaker 1: take Taiwan, now's the time, right while Trump's in office,

1928
01:55:19,880 --> 01:55:24,000
Speaker 1: while Trump's distracted. It's certainly my concern. It's why I

1929
01:55:24,040 --> 01:55:27,000
Speaker 1: booked like now. It's why I've been focused on this

1930
01:55:27,080 --> 01:55:31,480
Speaker 1: issue a little bit more because I think I I

1931
01:55:31,480 --> 01:55:35,040
Speaker 1: if you were just to play this out strategically, you know,

1932
01:55:35,400 --> 01:55:40,360
Speaker 1: or pretend you're pretend you are advising the Chinese leader

1933
01:55:41,360 --> 01:55:43,520
Speaker 1: and you're saying when when should you do this, Well,

1934
01:55:43,560 --> 01:55:44,760
Speaker 1: you don't want to do it when there's a new

1935
01:55:44,800 --> 01:55:47,800
Speaker 1: president and a new attitude. You might want to do

1936
01:55:47,920 --> 01:55:50,680
Speaker 1: it while you have somebody who might negotiate Taiwan away.

1937
01:55:54,680 --> 01:55:56,960
Speaker 1: So I think it's it's a concern. But what I

1938
01:55:57,040 --> 01:55:58,640
Speaker 1: what I learned from Mike, and I hope you learned.

1939
01:55:58,640 --> 01:56:02,720
Speaker 1: It's like China's got a China might not be ready

1940
01:56:02,720 --> 01:56:07,760
Speaker 1: for this either. And China sees what Russia's been doing

1941
01:56:07,760 --> 01:56:10,680
Speaker 1: with Ukraine, sees frankly, what we're doing with Iran, and

1942
01:56:10,760 --> 01:56:16,360
Speaker 1: realizes An ain't gonna happen. It doesn't Countries don't roll over.

1943
01:56:17,320 --> 01:56:20,600
Speaker 1: And I don't know how many times world powers have

1944
01:56:20,640 --> 01:56:25,920
Speaker 1: to learn this, whether it's Vietnam, whether it's Afghanistan, whether

1945
01:56:26,080 --> 01:56:30,000
Speaker 1: it's Iran, right, whether it's Taiwan, this stuff is not

1946
01:56:31,280 --> 01:56:34,879
Speaker 1: you know, you may think you can roll over somebody,

1947
01:56:34,920 --> 01:56:42,360
Speaker 1: but somebody has to say, all right, by the time

1948
01:56:42,640 --> 01:56:44,560
Speaker 1: you by the time this is uploaded, I will be

1949
01:56:44,640 --> 01:56:47,560
Speaker 1: on my way to the NAT's home opener. I'm very

1950
01:56:47,560 --> 01:56:50,600
Speaker 1: excited about this. You know what that means. It's NATS

1951
01:56:50,720 --> 01:56:53,560
Speaker 1: Dodgers right by the way. If you're the learners, you're

1952
01:56:53,600 --> 01:56:56,320
Speaker 1: really ticked off that the Dodgers are the home opener

1953
01:56:56,360 --> 01:56:59,280
Speaker 1: because you know, let's be honest, the Dodgers are going

1954
01:56:59,360 --> 01:57:01,240
Speaker 1: to sell out whenever you bring them. Show. Hey, Otani

1955
01:57:01,280 --> 01:57:04,640
Speaker 1: sells out wherever you go, so that's not you know,

1956
01:57:04,720 --> 01:57:07,720
Speaker 1: So you're actually, if you're the Nats, realizing that you

1957
01:57:07,720 --> 01:57:10,840
Speaker 1: don't have the best product on the field to lure

1958
01:57:11,360 --> 01:57:14,040
Speaker 1: casual fans into the stadium, you kind of want the

1959
01:57:14,080 --> 01:57:16,440
Speaker 1: Dodgers later in the year. Usually they come around June,

1960
01:57:17,320 --> 01:57:19,720
Speaker 1: but they've rejiggered the schedule over the last couple of

1961
01:57:19,800 --> 01:57:23,000
Speaker 1: years because of the mandatory decision that everybody plays everybody

1962
01:57:23,000 --> 01:57:26,240
Speaker 1: now at least one series, which I think is a

1963
01:57:26,280 --> 01:57:28,440
Speaker 1: great change, by the way, but it is scrambled sort of.

1964
01:57:28,920 --> 01:57:31,920
Speaker 1: You know when you're when you're a season ticket holder,

1965
01:57:32,000 --> 01:57:34,280
Speaker 1: you sort of follow the rhythm. You kind of know, oh,

1966
01:57:34,440 --> 01:57:36,520
Speaker 1: the Cardinals come here, and the Dodgers usually come in

1967
01:57:36,560 --> 01:57:38,320
Speaker 1: this month, and the Cubs usually come in this month

1968
01:57:38,360 --> 01:57:40,560
Speaker 1: and d D d Well, all that's gotten scrambled lately.

1969
01:57:41,440 --> 01:57:44,080
Speaker 1: So the Dodgers are the home opener. So, like I said,

1970
01:57:44,080 --> 01:57:48,760
Speaker 1: big blow to the learners, basically taking away three sellout

1971
01:57:48,840 --> 01:57:52,480
Speaker 1: dates that they would have gotten before I mean because

1972
01:57:52,560 --> 01:57:55,920
Speaker 1: home opener weekend, you're going to get great. Hopefully we're

1973
01:57:55,920 --> 01:57:58,360
Speaker 1: testing the weather here. But I have a few thoughts. Right,

1974
01:57:58,400 --> 01:58:02,360
Speaker 1: the Nats are three and three. Here's here's my big takeaway. Right,

1975
01:58:02,640 --> 01:58:06,200
Speaker 1: and the hiring of all these raised guys, and you know,

1976
01:58:06,240 --> 01:58:11,880
Speaker 1: the the the the snarky fan in me. That's fan

1977
01:58:12,000 --> 01:58:14,280
Speaker 1: in me who's you know, middle aged, and maybe you

1978
01:58:14,280 --> 01:58:15,760
Speaker 1: guys want to call me a little over the hill

1979
01:58:16,280 --> 01:58:18,320
Speaker 1: says hey, this hiring of all the interns from the

1980
01:58:18,320 --> 01:58:22,320
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Rays organization. We'll see how this works. We

1981
01:58:22,360 --> 01:58:25,080
Speaker 1: have a thirty one year old manager, etcetera, etcetera. I

1982
01:58:25,160 --> 01:58:28,240
Speaker 1: say all this, and I can already see a huge difference.

1983
01:58:29,080 --> 01:58:32,440
Speaker 1: It does look like. What's interesting is like, to me,

1984
01:58:32,520 --> 01:58:35,920
Speaker 1: the secret of the race success. Right, They have overperformed

1985
01:58:36,000 --> 01:58:38,200
Speaker 1: the amount of money they spend right there, seem to

1986
01:58:38,240 --> 01:58:41,760
Speaker 1: be always contending in the als. They strategically try to

1987
01:58:41,800 --> 01:58:44,800
Speaker 1: win every game and they will change whatever it is. Right, Oh,

1988
01:58:44,880 --> 01:58:46,280
Speaker 1: is this the game? We'll try and open er this

1989
01:58:46,360 --> 01:58:48,040
Speaker 1: game because this is you know, we're going to get

1990
01:58:48,040 --> 01:58:50,880
Speaker 1: their best three hitters out right away. They have a plan.

1991
01:58:51,360 --> 01:58:53,000
Speaker 1: You know, if you're going to try to win eighty

1992
01:58:53,040 --> 01:58:55,000
Speaker 1: five to ninety games, which gets you in the playoffs.

1993
01:58:55,120 --> 01:58:57,080
Speaker 1: You got to have a plan, a different plan to

1994
01:58:57,120 --> 01:59:00,600
Speaker 1: win every game. And you know, I think about the

1995
01:59:00,680 --> 01:59:03,960
Speaker 1: plan against the Phillies the other night where all the

1996
01:59:04,360 --> 01:59:07,640
Speaker 1: you know, even you know, they all the lefty hitters

1997
01:59:07,640 --> 01:59:09,640
Speaker 1: seem to have a plan to hit it opposite field,

1998
01:59:09,680 --> 01:59:12,400
Speaker 1: and it really suddenly that's how we got ten runs

1999
01:59:12,600 --> 01:59:15,320
Speaker 1: and nobody hit a homer. Right, it was just getting

2000
01:59:15,360 --> 01:59:17,480
Speaker 1: men on base and putting pressure on the Phillies to

2001
01:59:17,560 --> 01:59:22,600
Speaker 1: make plays. I feel like the at bats look smarter.

2002
01:59:23,800 --> 01:59:26,040
Speaker 1: I'm a little nervous about James Wood right than the

2003
01:59:26,120 --> 01:59:28,160
Speaker 1: Nats are three and three and Wood's been not a

2004
01:59:28,240 --> 01:59:32,760
Speaker 1: huge factor in all this. But I it's just been

2005
01:59:32,800 --> 01:59:36,480
Speaker 1: a week. But you know, I've been MOPy and doom

2006
01:59:36,520 --> 01:59:40,320
Speaker 1: and gloom and still don't like the way the learners

2007
01:59:40,400 --> 01:59:43,960
Speaker 1: are not investing in this team. But man, I think

2008
01:59:44,000 --> 01:59:47,160
Speaker 1: they've hired some pretty good people because these and this

2009
01:59:47,320 --> 01:59:50,880
Speaker 1: team seems to respond so far. They just seem to be,

2010
01:59:51,080 --> 01:59:54,000
Speaker 1: you know again, where it's a lot more analytics driven.

2011
01:59:54,080 --> 01:59:57,440
Speaker 1: You can tell it's more analytics driven. And for a

2012
01:59:57,480 --> 02:00:01,280
Speaker 1: team that doesn't have the isn't going to use the

2013
02:00:01,320 --> 02:00:04,880
Speaker 1: resources to compete with the Dodgers. Doesn't have the big,

2014
02:00:05,840 --> 02:00:09,520
Speaker 1: you know, marquee talent to compete with the Dodgers on

2015
02:00:09,560 --> 02:00:11,720
Speaker 1: a day to day basis or a week to week basis,

2016
02:00:11,800 --> 02:00:17,040
Speaker 1: or even the Phillies or even the Cubs, etc. You

2017
02:00:17,080 --> 02:00:19,560
Speaker 1: could see that they're trying to find edges where they can,

2018
02:00:19,880 --> 02:00:23,480
Speaker 1: and you know what, that's all I want to see.

2019
02:00:24,080 --> 02:00:27,200
Speaker 1: You know, it's unlike the crap product that the Wizards

2020
02:00:27,200 --> 02:00:29,960
Speaker 1: have put out with this tanking situation, which is just

2021
02:00:30,040 --> 02:00:36,120
Speaker 1: embarrassing for the NBA. I'm horrified. It is really left

2022
02:00:36,160 --> 02:00:38,840
Speaker 1: a bad taste in my mouth. I desperately want to

2023
02:00:38,840 --> 02:00:43,560
Speaker 1: try to be a Wizards fan, all right, I do.

2024
02:00:45,600 --> 02:00:48,360
Speaker 1: My son loves the NBA. I wanted him to become

2025
02:00:48,360 --> 02:00:50,520
Speaker 1: a Wizards fan. It's been so bad over a fifteen

2026
02:00:50,600 --> 02:00:52,400
Speaker 1: year period. He's a Suns fan because he was a

2027
02:00:52,400 --> 02:00:54,600
Speaker 1: Devin Booker fan and he just adopted the Sons and

2028
02:00:54,640 --> 02:00:57,360
Speaker 1: he's all in with the Sons. And I blame the

2029
02:00:57,400 --> 02:01:01,280
Speaker 1: Wizards that they don't even try. And when you put

2030
02:01:01,280 --> 02:01:05,600
Speaker 1: out you don't even try. What Look, it's clear that

2031
02:01:05,640 --> 02:01:07,400
Speaker 1: the Nats are not trying to win a World Series.

2032
02:01:07,440 --> 02:01:10,560
Speaker 1: Their front office isn't. But they at least the evidence

2033
02:01:10,640 --> 02:01:15,040
Speaker 1: is they want to win each individual game. I think

2034
02:01:15,160 --> 02:01:21,280
Speaker 1: the way this the way professional and professional basketball always

2035
02:01:21,280 --> 02:01:26,040
Speaker 1: looks even worse during during the NCAA tournament, right because

2036
02:01:26,040 --> 02:01:29,200
Speaker 1: it's so fun and exciting to watch competitive basketball, and

2037
02:01:29,240 --> 02:01:33,680
Speaker 1: then you're like, oh, now, if you happen to see

2038
02:01:33,920 --> 02:01:38,680
Speaker 1: Thunder play the Lakers, they do compete, but you can't

2039
02:01:38,720 --> 02:01:41,000
Speaker 1: watch your own hometown team play because they have no

2040
02:01:41,120 --> 02:01:45,480
Speaker 1: interest in competing. That's no you know, nobody watches the

2041
02:01:45,520 --> 02:01:49,960
Speaker 1: Washington Generals, and eventually people stop watching the Harlem Globe

2042
02:01:49,960 --> 02:01:51,920
Speaker 1: Trotters because you kind of knew what was going to happen.

2043
02:01:52,720 --> 02:01:55,960
Speaker 1: And I just it's embarrassing and I hate it, and

2044
02:01:56,000 --> 02:01:58,920
Speaker 1: I really think it's a stain on the franchise. I

2045
02:01:58,960 --> 02:02:00,720
Speaker 1: get it. I get what they're trying to do, and

2046
02:02:00,760 --> 02:02:03,040
Speaker 1: they're not the only team that has done it. Utah

2047
02:02:03,160 --> 02:02:06,280
Speaker 1: is doing it. It's gross. We saw what the you

2048
02:02:06,280 --> 02:02:09,320
Speaker 1: know again, I see it. Shoot they you know, you

2049
02:02:09,360 --> 02:02:12,080
Speaker 1: see it in baseball, but at least on at least

2050
02:02:12,160 --> 02:02:14,440
Speaker 1: you know, the Houston Astros when they were tanking as

2051
02:02:14,480 --> 02:02:19,080
Speaker 1: an organization, the players in the field were competing, and

2052
02:02:19,160 --> 02:02:21,520
Speaker 1: the coaching staff on the field was trying to win games.

2053
02:02:21,960 --> 02:02:24,720
Speaker 1: What's really gross about the Wizards is that as soon

2054
02:02:24,720 --> 02:02:27,760
Speaker 1: as the player does well, they bench them. God forbid

2055
02:02:27,800 --> 02:02:31,720
Speaker 1: that the Wizards accidentally win a game. So it is

2056
02:02:31,840 --> 02:02:34,080
Speaker 1: absolutely the NBA is a huge problem, and you want

2057
02:02:34,080 --> 02:02:37,480
Speaker 1: to expand clean up the league. At them, clean this

2058
02:02:37,640 --> 02:02:42,040
Speaker 1: crap up, get a better regular season product, going figure

2059
02:02:42,040 --> 02:02:46,160
Speaker 1: out how to incentivize better regular season basketball. You know

2060
02:02:46,280 --> 02:02:50,040
Speaker 1: when I was, when I was in my teens and twenties,

2061
02:02:50,760 --> 02:02:54,440
Speaker 1: it was appointment viewing in the eighties and early nineties

2062
02:02:54,760 --> 02:02:58,960
Speaker 1: to see regular season matchups of Bird versus Magic, Magic

2063
02:02:59,080 --> 02:03:04,680
Speaker 1: versus Jordan. You know you didn't miss it. Nobody's tuning

2064
02:03:04,720 --> 02:03:07,360
Speaker 1: in for a regular season matchup. You don't feel that

2065
02:03:07,560 --> 02:03:10,600
Speaker 1: sense of you know, you've got to fix this at them,

2066
02:03:10,640 --> 02:03:13,000
Speaker 1: You've got to fix this. Basketball is a great sport.

2067
02:03:14,120 --> 02:03:19,640
Speaker 1: This system has created a mess. All right, enjoy your weekend.

2068
02:03:20,600 --> 02:03:21,440
Speaker 1: I'll see you on Monday.