WEBVTT - Ford Sees $1 Billion in Added Costs

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Search Bloomberg Glovel News. The next half hour focusing on

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<v Speaker 1>US automakers. First Up, we want to take a look

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<v Speaker 1>at Ford Shairs, tumbling today the most in seven months,

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<v Speaker 1>at news after the closed yesterday that inflation is pushing

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<v Speaker 1>supplier costs a billion dollars higher than expected in the

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<v Speaker 1>current quarter. Really joining the chorus of major corporations warning

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<v Speaker 1>about challenges rippling through the economy. We're kind of starting

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<v Speaker 1>to hear the same story. The twelve point four percent

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<v Speaker 1>to the downside. The lowest were biggest one day drop,

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<v Speaker 1>I should say, in seven months. Let's get into it

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<v Speaker 1>with Keith non, auto reporter for Bloomberg News. He joins

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<v Speaker 1>us this afternoon on the phone. Hey, Keith, good to

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<v Speaker 1>have you with us. Um, give us an idea of

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<v Speaker 1>why this Cott investor so off guard here. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>what change for Ford that caused the company to come

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<v Speaker 1>out and say inflation is costing us a billion dollars

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<v Speaker 1>more than we expected. Yeah, I mean there's really two

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<v Speaker 1>aspects of this. There's the inflation piece that's driving costs up,

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<v Speaker 1>but they also have thousands and thousands is very profitable

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<v Speaker 1>suvs and pickup trucks that they're stacking up unfinished because

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<v Speaker 1>they still can't get the parts they need, things like semiconductors.

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<v Speaker 1>So investors had sort of felt like the supply shortage

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<v Speaker 1>issue was over and we've moved on and this is

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<v Speaker 1>a big proof point that that's still a problem. And

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<v Speaker 1>then you can't finish your cars for lack of parts,

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<v Speaker 1>then you can't book those sales and make those profits. So,

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<v Speaker 1>as a result, you know Ford's third quarter, Um, you

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<v Speaker 1>know income there's going to be less than half what

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<v Speaker 1>it was in the second quarter. It's really a big

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<v Speaker 1>bite and that and that took investors by surprise. So

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<v Speaker 1>it's not a demand falling story. It's just a case

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<v Speaker 1>of we don't have all the things we need to

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<v Speaker 1>finish up the trucks and Suvs and get them out

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<v Speaker 1>there right and GM faced a similar situation earlier this year.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you can catch up and we'll finish those

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<v Speaker 1>trucks and they expect the fourth quarter to be stronger.

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<v Speaker 1>So they didn't change their guidance for the full year.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, when you have such a significant profit

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<v Speaker 1>warning for the third quarter, it's just it's unexpected and

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<v Speaker 1>investors don't like those downside sourprieties and, as I said,

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<v Speaker 1>it underscores the negatives in this cyclical industry and investors

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<v Speaker 1>are always wary about those, those issues inflation, demand, supply

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<v Speaker 1>and and if those start rearing your head, they just

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<v Speaker 1>fell off. Hey Keith Um, we had Mario Cordero, the

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<v Speaker 1>executive director at the Port of Port of Long Beach,

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<v Speaker 1>on yesterday. He talked to us about how, at least

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<v Speaker 1>done from his perspective, things seem to be easing a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit. He gave the example of what eleven or

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<v Speaker 1>twelve ships off the coast instead of more than a

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<v Speaker 1>hundred that we saw last in January. Um, what do investors, though,

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to autos and sort of the higher

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<v Speaker 1>tech components that these autos are waiting for, need to

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<v Speaker 1>understand about where we are in the supply chain? Because

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<v Speaker 1>we have heard, you know, whether it's like Susquehanna or

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<v Speaker 1>you know more about chip lead times coming down a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit. They are absolutely coming down and and that

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<v Speaker 1>situation is improving, but it's not fixed yet. And there's

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<v Speaker 1>another wrinkle to it. You know, the automakers are making

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<v Speaker 1>this transition to electric vehicles. Well, electric vehicles require more chips,

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<v Speaker 1>they're more high tech, they're more electronic, and so, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>to finish an electric vehicle takes more chips than it

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<v Speaker 1>does to finish an internal combustion engine vehicle. So even

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<v Speaker 1>as as some of the shortages begin to ease on

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<v Speaker 1>some of my conductors, and they're not gone, but they've

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<v Speaker 1>begun to improve, you know, you have the vehicles that

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<v Speaker 1>demand more of them. so that creates a new bottom

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<v Speaker 1>and and that's and that's going to be around for

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<v Speaker 1>a while. Hey, Um Keith, I do wonder that these

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<v Speaker 1>SUVs and trucks that they can't Ford, can't finish up

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<v Speaker 1>and get them off the assembly lining out to h customers.

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<v Speaker 1>Is there the chance, because they don't have the components

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<v Speaker 1>they need to finish them up, that by the time

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<v Speaker 1>they are done, that demand will have fallen? Or these

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<v Speaker 1>cars that are already sold? You know, they feel like

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<v Speaker 1>pent up demand from the pandemic still is there. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>they the supply of cars on dealer lot is still

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<v Speaker 1>very scamp. So they really are selling these things as

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<v Speaker 1>soon as they come off the delivery to us. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, will that continue forever? Hard to know, but

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<v Speaker 1>the fact you still are not back up the full

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<v Speaker 1>capacity and they still have a lot of demand for

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<v Speaker 1>the products. So they feel like as soon as they

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<v Speaker 1>finish these things up and believe or not, they roll

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<v Speaker 1>them off in the assembly line and they parked them

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<v Speaker 1>and parking lots waiting to put these chips in. So

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<v Speaker 1>that's that's the situation. But once they can chip them

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<v Speaker 1>up to the dealers, they're confident they have buyers waiting. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean my dad's one of those buyers. His Mackie

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<v Speaker 1>that he's been you know, he's ordered for more than

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<v Speaker 1>a year ago, Keith, he got an email a few

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<v Speaker 1>weeks ago. It actually went into production yesterday and I emailed,

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<v Speaker 1>I texted him, I said happy, you know, Macki Production Day,

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<v Speaker 1>and he said we'll see. When, when it actually arrives?

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<v Speaker 1>And what do you think? Is he going to get

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<v Speaker 1>it in the next two weeks or is it gonna

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<v Speaker 1>sit there and wait for a chip? Yeah, I um

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I wouldn't take the over under on that one. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it could be a while, and that's the

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<v Speaker 1>people are waiting, you know, literally for a year to

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<v Speaker 1>get some of these high demands. You know, electric vehicles,

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<v Speaker 1>the Ford Um F one, gift through lightning, the electric

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<v Speaker 1>pick up truck, had two hundred thousand orders before it

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<v Speaker 1>even rolled the first one off the assembly line. So

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<v Speaker 1>you know on the waiting lists are fast. Great demand,

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<v Speaker 1>good problem to have, but you want to and get

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<v Speaker 1>them in to the hands of customers. Keith non, thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so much. Busy Guy Finding time for us. Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>News Auto reporter Keith Nton on the road doing another story.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg radio to leaders from

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<v Speaker 1>around the world to sending a midtime Manhattan this week

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<v Speaker 1>for the seventy seven session of the UN General Assembly.

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<v Speaker 1>First Day of the High Level General Debate is today us.

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<v Speaker 1>President Joe by now dresses the Assembly tomorrow and we

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<v Speaker 1>certainly have a lot of presents there. Yeah, we've got

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<v Speaker 1>including a Marie hordern. She's Wahington correspondent for Bloomberg News.

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<v Speaker 1>She's up in New York for this. She's live from

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<v Speaker 1>the U N here in New York City. Follow her

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<v Speaker 1>on twitter at Anne Marie emery. Good to have you

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<v Speaker 1>with us this afternoon. It's been a really long day

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<v Speaker 1>for you, so we appreciate you taking the time here. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>what do we need to know? What does our audience

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<v Speaker 1>need to know about what's happened thus far? And then

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<v Speaker 1>what happens when the action goes you know, kicks off

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<v Speaker 1>tomorrow too. Yeah, well, we all know the UN General Assembly,

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<v Speaker 1>the UN in general, really suffers from not being able

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<v Speaker 1>to have jurisdiction over things like a war Ukraine. Russia

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<v Speaker 1>is on the Security Council. They've used the veto card

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<v Speaker 1>more than any other member, we should note, followed just

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<v Speaker 1>under the United States. But really what this is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be facilitating is a number of bilateral meetings on

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<v Speaker 1>the side where leaders can come together, and the two

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<v Speaker 1>big topics right now are obviously Ukraine, especially as we

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<v Speaker 1>might hear from President Vladimir Putin this evening, as he

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<v Speaker 1>is talking about referendums in four regions of Ukraine that

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<v Speaker 1>he will then absorb into the country. These are sham referendums,

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<v Speaker 1>sham votes. And then, of course, the energy crisis. Europe

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<v Speaker 1>is about to enter a very bleak and dark winter

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<v Speaker 1>and with Putin playing politics with natural gas and also

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<v Speaker 1>Europe really cutting off their access or allowing countries to

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<v Speaker 1>access exports from Russia of oil, this winter is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be incredibly challenging. So it's almost a meeting to

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<v Speaker 1>talk about the future of Ukraine and what was going

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<v Speaker 1>on on the ground right down that country, as well

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<v Speaker 1>as an oil and gas sum it well, when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to Russia and the intentions with Ukraine, you earlier

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<v Speaker 1>and we cut up with the native secretary general, Yain Staltenberg,

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<v Speaker 1>from the UN Rose Garden. Let's listen to what he

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<v Speaker 1>had to say to you. Such sham votes, referendums do

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<v Speaker 1>not have any legitimacy and therefore they don't change the

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<v Speaker 1>nature of the conflict. This remains a war of aggression

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<v Speaker 1>by rusha against the independent sovereign nation in Europe, Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh and UH. This will only uh further uh worsen

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<v Speaker 1>the situation and therefore we need to provide more support

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<v Speaker 1>to Ukraine. Very difficult situation. And talking about support, Native

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<v Speaker 1>Secretary General Yan Stealtenberg, I mean and Marie, and your

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<v Speaker 1>conversations you're having, you will have, I mean, what stood

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<v Speaker 1>that for you in that conversation specifically? Well, he's in

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<v Speaker 1>line with I also quickly spoke to two Ukrainian officials

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<v Speaker 1>after this news came out, and they were not surprised,

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<v Speaker 1>because Putin has done this before in Crimea and most

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<v Speaker 1>notably in on top of that, one Ukrainian official said

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<v Speaker 1>to me, well, if I declare myself a prince, so

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<v Speaker 1>what the world is going to recognize me as a prince?

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<v Speaker 1>What they are saying is this is not change the

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<v Speaker 1>actualities on the ground and what they are the Ukrainians

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<v Speaker 1>are here asking for is more weapons. What you hear

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<v Speaker 1>from NATO Secretary General Yan Stoltenberg is that he wants

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<v Speaker 1>to keep this unity within Europe, even though he's very

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<v Speaker 1>well aware of how difficult, especially for our Europe and

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<v Speaker 1>the Western allies. It is going to be this winter.

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<v Speaker 1>He wants to keep this unity and he says that

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<v Speaker 1>they will sustain the weapons and ammunition until the war

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<v Speaker 1>is over, but obviously there's no timeline on that. The

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<v Speaker 1>concerns is that, of course, with Putin, annexing basically uh

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<v Speaker 1>these regions, the Don Bass, as well as Hassan and

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<v Speaker 1>also Zebarigia, would mean that he would use that and

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<v Speaker 1>say to his people I have now a success, after

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<v Speaker 1>we saw that counter offensive from Ukraine. On top of that,

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<v Speaker 1>he would consider the Kremlin as well would consider this

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<v Speaker 1>their legal territory, meaning there are many individuals who are

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<v Speaker 1>concerned about Putin escalating this into the nuclear territory or

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<v Speaker 1>the chemical weapons territory. What is the discussion about how

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<v Speaker 1>to prevent that from happening, not just in the United States,

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<v Speaker 1>but from from world leaders who are here as part

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<v Speaker 1>of the UN General Assembly? They say, and that you

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<v Speaker 1>saw the president say on sixty minutes, there would be quote,

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<v Speaker 1>consequences uh and, but they will not tell you what

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<v Speaker 1>those consequences would be. But I think what they were

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<v Speaker 1>trying to make sure that they also use this too

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<v Speaker 1>when they talk to their partners and their allies, as

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<v Speaker 1>this is the reason why we also need to stick together,

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<v Speaker 1>because for them, they feel as though, especially in Europe,

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<v Speaker 1>on their doorstep. This isn't just a war in Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 1>This isn't just the war in eastern and South Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 1>This could potentially inflict all of us and already is

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<v Speaker 1>changing the landscape of Europe. And really, do you want

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<v Speaker 1>to Asque? It's always key when we've got someone on

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<v Speaker 1>the ground there. What is kind of the scene? The

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<v Speaker 1>mood at the U N? I'm thinking this is it's

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<v Speaker 1>been very different the U N after two years of

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic. It's much more normal, I guess you could say,

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<v Speaker 1>although we are living in certainly very unusual times. Um

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<v Speaker 1>set the scene for us well. The topics are depressing, right.

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<v Speaker 1>We're talking about a war, we're talking about energy crisis,

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking about food security. I was at a panel

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<v Speaker 1>discussion on the sidelines of the U N Talking About

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<v Speaker 1>Food Security in Latin America, which most countries import all

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<v Speaker 1>these fertilizers. They are dealing with almost deathly inflation in

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<v Speaker 1>Latin America and the Caribbean. But when you talk about

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that all these leaders and their teams are

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<v Speaker 1>able to gather together, as we have really not been

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<v Speaker 1>able to do in terms of massive und gatherings because

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<v Speaker 1>of Covid. It's quite jovial on the sidelines. You see

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<v Speaker 1>individuals being able to come out of their security details

0:11:57.640 --> 0:12:00.319
<v Speaker 1>that have a conversation with journalists or meeting each other.

0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:03.800
<v Speaker 1>So in that sense, uh, there is this expectation that

0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:06.000
<v Speaker 1>they can get some work done on the sidelines of

0:12:06.040 --> 0:12:08.520
<v Speaker 1>this meeting because it is in person and usually things

0:12:08.600 --> 0:12:10.640
<v Speaker 1>get done a lot quicker than Hey Andrie, just in

0:12:10.640 --> 0:12:12.160
<v Speaker 1>the thirty seconds that we have left with you, you've

0:12:12.160 --> 0:12:13.920
<v Speaker 1>got a lot of big interviews coming up. Um, you've

0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:16.800
<v Speaker 1>got another one coming up later today on BTV. Who

0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:21.080
<v Speaker 1>are you talking to? So I'M gonna be sitting down

0:12:21.120 --> 0:12:24.520
<v Speaker 1>with a Foreign Minnesota of cutter, and really at a

0:12:24.559 --> 0:12:28.840
<v Speaker 1>critical moment because we have sholtz of Germany, the German chancellor,

0:12:29.000 --> 0:12:32.560
<v Speaker 1>heading over to Joha this weekend and we know that

0:12:32.559 --> 0:12:36.040
<v Speaker 1>he is trying to secure LN G deals. Again. This

0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:38.959
<v Speaker 1>UN General Assembly is basically coming down to an oil

0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:42.040
<v Speaker 1>and gas conference, because you have European officials trying to

0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:44.679
<v Speaker 1>secure supplies before they go into the den of winter.

0:12:44.960 --> 0:12:46.880
<v Speaker 1>So that'll be one of the main topics we discussed

0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:49.120
<v Speaker 1>and to sit down. All Right, busy day. You're on

0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:52.480
<v Speaker 1>it for us. We appreciate it our own and Marie horden,

0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:54.920
<v Speaker 1>she covers the White House and so much more. She's

0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:57.920
<v Speaker 1>joining us from outside the U. N. This is bluebird.

0:13:01.520 --> 0:13:05.120
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and

0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:10.040
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg radio. Well, we

0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:13.720
<v Speaker 1>mentioned the Ford News. Uh, and even though we're watching

0:13:13.720 --> 0:13:15.840
<v Speaker 1>that in the Ford stock falling off among our most

0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:18.000
<v Speaker 1>right on the Bloomberg today's one on General Motors and

0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:20.360
<v Speaker 1>how GM wants to be the tortoise, not the hair,

0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:23.400
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to the great ev race. Yeah, this

0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:27.000
<v Speaker 1>excerpt is in the upcoming issue of Business Week magazine.

0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:28.400
<v Speaker 1>You can read it now that it's on the Bloomberg

0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:31.520
<v Speaker 1>Terminal and at Bloomberg Dot Com. Slash Business Week. It's

0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:35.600
<v Speaker 1>adapted from David Welch's new book charging ahead. GM, Mary

0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:39.439
<v Speaker 1>Barra and the reinvention of an American icon. David Welch's

0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:41.640
<v Speaker 1>Detroit Bureau chief for Bloomberg News. He joins us on

0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:44.240
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Detroit. Also with us, as Joel Weber,

0:13:44.280 --> 0:13:46.360
<v Speaker 1>the editor of Bloomberg Business Week. He's with us in

0:13:46.400 --> 0:13:50.120
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Joel. When you think about evs,

0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:52.280
<v Speaker 1>we of course think of Tesla, but increasingly we're talking

0:13:52.320 --> 0:13:55.480
<v Speaker 1>about a company like Ford, with the Maki and the

0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:59.280
<v Speaker 1>F one, fifty lightning. Where does GM fall into this? Well,

0:13:59.280 --> 0:14:02.160
<v Speaker 1>they were really right like that. What's interesting by this

0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:03.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean they weren't as early as Tesla, but but

0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:07.600
<v Speaker 1>GM was out early. Mary Borrow, like really was forward

0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:12.720
<v Speaker 1>and telling everyone that GM was going to be big

0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:16.040
<v Speaker 1>on big on EVs. And yet here we are and

0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:19.480
<v Speaker 1>it's like wait, where is GM exactly? And and you

0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:22.200
<v Speaker 1>know what was interesting when David and I started talking

0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:24.760
<v Speaker 1>about his book was sort of that this was actually

0:14:24.800 --> 0:14:28.000
<v Speaker 1>the plan. Like that. Mary borrow said, WE'RE gonna go,

0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:30.160
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna be a little bit slow, but it's all

0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:32.840
<v Speaker 1>going to be worth it. Um So, so, David. What's

0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:37.120
<v Speaker 1>the rational there? GM at its heart is a really

0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:40.680
<v Speaker 1>pragmatic company and one thing people forget about Mary Barrow,

0:14:40.720 --> 0:14:44.600
<v Speaker 1>because they see her as the first email CEO, is

0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:48.960
<v Speaker 1>she's an engineer and her her sidekick, Mark Royce, is

0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:52.720
<v Speaker 1>also an engineer. So for the first time since the sixties.

0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:55.440
<v Speaker 1>The company is run by engineers. They don't go for buzz.

0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:57.520
<v Speaker 1>They don't try to jam a battery in an existing

0:14:57.600 --> 0:14:59.840
<v Speaker 1>vehicle to get on the cover of business week, although

0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:06.720
<v Speaker 1>lightning cover was really, really well done by Kelly. They

0:15:07.960 --> 0:15:10.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, they decide, okay, we're gonna build a battery

0:15:10.400 --> 0:15:12.880
<v Speaker 1>pack that can host everything from a little Chevy Equinox

0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:15.840
<v Speaker 1>and actually even smaller. They're working on subcompacts for global

0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:18.160
<v Speaker 1>markets all the way up to this huge nine thousand

0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:20.880
<v Speaker 1>pound Hummer and everything in between. And they're gonna build

0:15:20.920 --> 0:15:23.720
<v Speaker 1>their battery plants. So, other than Tesla, GM has the

0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:28.400
<v Speaker 1>only battery plant making battery packs and sells. It's in Radstown, Ohio.

0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:30.080
<v Speaker 1>It's going right now. The second one is going to

0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:33.360
<v Speaker 1>open in Spring Hill, Tennessee, near the old Saturn plant,

0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:37.520
<v Speaker 1>next year. Again an engineering mindset. Get your building blocks

0:15:37.520 --> 0:15:39.880
<v Speaker 1>in place, get your plants up, then you spawn this

0:15:39.960 --> 0:15:44.160
<v Speaker 1>huge family of evs and and and that's really where

0:15:44.160 --> 0:15:47.160
<v Speaker 1>they are. One could fault them for relying on the

0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:50.200
<v Speaker 1>Chevy bold, which has been around since two sixteen. It's

0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:53.240
<v Speaker 1>a compact car. Americans Hay compax. I think they rode

0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:55.560
<v Speaker 1>that a little too long before coming up with something else.

0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:57.840
<v Speaker 1>But in a way this really was the plant. So

0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:01.680
<v Speaker 1>it's you know, and just respond to your Zinger. Their

0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:05.200
<v Speaker 1>easy data to to poke fun at at my forward

0:16:05.240 --> 0:16:10.280
<v Speaker 1>cover with Ford tumbling up. Yeah, but but you know,

0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:15.240
<v Speaker 1>the the great thing about Um, what your story really

0:16:15.320 --> 0:16:19.200
<v Speaker 1>injes on, is this ultium, which is the battery platform.

0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:23.040
<v Speaker 1>So what did? What did GM UH? What is Gim

0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:26.080
<v Speaker 1>hoping to accomplish there? And and you know, we'll talk

0:16:26.120 --> 0:16:28.200
<v Speaker 1>a little bit more about where they've been with the vault,

0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:30.400
<v Speaker 1>but like where does it? Where does this potentially allow

0:16:30.440 --> 0:16:35.560
<v Speaker 1>them to go? So right now they've got too luxury

0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:38.560
<v Speaker 1>electric vehicles in production. They've got the Big Hummer and

0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:43.120
<v Speaker 1>they've got a cadillac lyric and this is sort of historic.

0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:45.520
<v Speaker 1>GM goes back to Alfred's phone. Start off with your

0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:47.840
<v Speaker 1>coolest stuff in your luxury brands and then's slowly got

0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:51.240
<v Speaker 1>down on the scale. And next year they'll have chevy

0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:54.000
<v Speaker 1>silverado pickup, which a year behind, but we'll compete with

0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:57.560
<v Speaker 1>the defince. Then they have a Chevy Blazer midsize, I

0:16:57.560 --> 0:16:59.840
<v Speaker 1>should be family car for a lot of people. Not

0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:03.920
<v Speaker 1>Super Cheap but pretty cheap. It's dollars which these days.

0:17:04.040 --> 0:17:07.199
<v Speaker 1>This about what a new car cost. Then, about this

0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:10.919
<v Speaker 1>time next year, the Chevy Equinox, the equinox, now that

0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:13.119
<v Speaker 1>no one buys families and dams anymore, the equinox is

0:17:13.160 --> 0:17:16.159
<v Speaker 1>really Chevy's family car. And they're going to start this

0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:18.680
<v Speaker 1>thing at thirty thousand which, other than the bolt, which

0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:21.680
<v Speaker 1>again compact car Americans still like complex, will be the

0:17:21.760 --> 0:17:24.199
<v Speaker 1>cheapest on the market. And it really to me that

0:17:24.440 --> 0:17:27.639
<v Speaker 1>is it's two things. It's really the fruit of this

0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:30.400
<v Speaker 1>whole all team thing. They believe they've got the scale

0:17:30.760 --> 0:17:34.120
<v Speaker 1>and the platform where they can democratize electric vehicles by

0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:36.639
<v Speaker 1>bringing mass market family car to people who don't have

0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:39.960
<v Speaker 1>three other four expensive vehicles in their garage. And the

0:17:40.000 --> 0:17:41.879
<v Speaker 1>other thing is it really is a litmus test or

0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:45.160
<v Speaker 1>how ready Middle America is to go with battery powered

0:17:45.240 --> 0:17:48.119
<v Speaker 1>vehicles and charge up. And but to me it's what

0:17:48.280 --> 0:17:52.080
<v Speaker 1>really alteam is all about, is if they can sell

0:17:52.160 --> 0:17:55.239
<v Speaker 1>evs to everybody. Um, the secret sauce. Seems to be

0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:59.000
<v Speaker 1>this alterum about it, and you write that it's really

0:17:59.000 --> 0:18:01.480
<v Speaker 1>about changing the way cars are made. So what's different?

0:18:01.560 --> 0:18:05.800
<v Speaker 1>What's different in the process old teams? Basically it's a

0:18:05.800 --> 0:18:07.919
<v Speaker 1>battery pack that makes up the floor of the vehicle

0:18:08.600 --> 0:18:12.240
<v Speaker 1>and then you you you know this is way over

0:18:12.320 --> 0:18:15.399
<v Speaker 1>simplification of the guys and the factories and you're not

0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:17.160
<v Speaker 1>doing that because I'm a girl, are you? I am

0:18:17.200 --> 0:18:19.400
<v Speaker 1>the daughter of an engineer. So you can you can

0:18:19.440 --> 0:18:24.119
<v Speaker 1>go with it from doing it because simply board Um,

0:18:24.359 --> 0:18:27.200
<v Speaker 1>but you're basically bolting whatever vehicle it is on top

0:18:27.280 --> 0:18:30.400
<v Speaker 1>of that skateboard kind of platform. It's not quite a skateboard,

0:18:30.400 --> 0:18:33.960
<v Speaker 1>but close enough, so you can and it's also sort

0:18:34.000 --> 0:18:37.280
<v Speaker 1>of a Lego set. So if you need to build

0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:39.439
<v Speaker 1>it longer or wider or shorter or whatever, you can

0:18:39.440 --> 0:18:41.879
<v Speaker 1>do that. The other thing they can do, and this

0:18:41.920 --> 0:18:43.919
<v Speaker 1>is what they've done with the Hummer, you can actually

0:18:43.920 --> 0:18:45.679
<v Speaker 1>stack them on top of each other. So if you

0:18:45.720 --> 0:18:48.000
<v Speaker 1>have a big, heavy vehicle that has a thousand horse power,

0:18:48.119 --> 0:18:50.240
<v Speaker 1>which the Hummer does, so you need a lot of

0:18:50.240 --> 0:18:52.640
<v Speaker 1>power on board. If you just add more battery, which

0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:56.000
<v Speaker 1>we have, more electricity by stacking these cells on top

0:18:56.040 --> 0:18:58.040
<v Speaker 1>of each other, she can have a big and wide

0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:00.399
<v Speaker 1>and you can stack them up for more energy. Either's

0:19:00.440 --> 0:19:02.440
<v Speaker 1>just it really is kind of like a Lego. Said,

0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:04.119
<v Speaker 1>you know, they're not the only ones. Are gonna do this.

0:19:04.200 --> 0:19:06.840
<v Speaker 1>Volkswagen is starting something very similar right about now. But

0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:10.840
<v Speaker 1>everybody else in the industry, Tesla, is kind of going

0:19:10.880 --> 0:19:13.240
<v Speaker 1>where GM and Volkswagen are headed to get a lot

0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:15.480
<v Speaker 1>of vehicles out quickly and both, and you look at

0:19:15.520 --> 0:19:17.600
<v Speaker 1>a GM and volkswagon are the two who have earmarked

0:19:17.840 --> 0:19:21.200
<v Speaker 1>billions of dollars and many, many vehicles coming. At least

0:19:21.200 --> 0:19:22.959
<v Speaker 1>they the two did it first. Before it has caught up.

0:19:23.000 --> 0:19:25.480
<v Speaker 1>Others are planning on it. But in terms of well,

0:19:25.480 --> 0:19:28.760
<v Speaker 1>what this really is? This is commercializing electrical the battery

0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:31.280
<v Speaker 1>itself doesn't have any special chemistry or special sauce. It's

0:19:31.280 --> 0:19:36.040
<v Speaker 1>a commercialization and an industrial plan and you know, it's interesting. Um,

0:19:36.080 --> 0:19:38.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, in addition to these for the sport news

0:19:38.560 --> 0:19:41.320
<v Speaker 1>that my colleagues broke, our colleagues broke today, we also

0:19:41.359 --> 0:19:43.560
<v Speaker 1>had this hurts news that hurts is going to get

0:19:43.560 --> 0:19:45.960
<v Speaker 1>into this so so clearly to have this scale and

0:19:46.000 --> 0:19:48.919
<v Speaker 1>bring the cost down. Um, uh, you know, hurts is

0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:51.399
<v Speaker 1>liking what they see out of GM. But so how

0:19:51.480 --> 0:19:53.840
<v Speaker 1>does how does that kind of fit into Bara's master

0:19:53.880 --> 0:19:59.200
<v Speaker 1>plan here? So GM's plan is to sell a million

0:19:59.280 --> 0:20:02.800
<v Speaker 1>evs in the US and I think really the only

0:20:02.800 --> 0:20:05.520
<v Speaker 1>one who would be probably doing that by then. The

0:20:05.920 --> 0:20:08.720
<v Speaker 1>Tesla and some manalist a GM could be ahead by

0:20:08.760 --> 0:20:12.520
<v Speaker 1>then and could save the dog plate whatever its all forecasting.

0:20:12.640 --> 0:20:15.200
<v Speaker 1>But it gives them, it gives gm a lot of

0:20:15.200 --> 0:20:17.560
<v Speaker 1>different vehicles and a lot of potential, a lot of

0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:20.880
<v Speaker 1>production in there for potential sales line. So hurts likes

0:20:20.920 --> 0:20:24.760
<v Speaker 1>what they see because they're saying they're gonna buy vehicles

0:20:24.760 --> 0:20:28.040
<v Speaker 1>from five different GM brands. So you would cadillac, Chevroy,

0:20:28.200 --> 0:20:30.719
<v Speaker 1>G M C and also bright drop, which is GM's

0:20:30.760 --> 0:20:33.840
<v Speaker 1>commercial band business. That X has already ordered some some

0:20:33.880 --> 0:20:37.359
<v Speaker 1>electric bands from this bright drop unit that that GM

0:20:37.400 --> 0:20:41.560
<v Speaker 1>has going. And and so clearly hurts seas enough that

0:20:41.680 --> 0:20:45.320
<v Speaker 1>GM has got enough production in their plan where over

0:20:45.359 --> 0:20:47.679
<v Speaker 1>the next five years they can buy a hundred and

0:20:47.680 --> 0:20:50.640
<v Speaker 1>seventy five thousand E V s off. Then they pledged

0:20:50.760 --> 0:20:54.800
<v Speaker 1>by a hundred thousand, a hundred thousands from Tesla. So

0:20:55.040 --> 0:20:57.760
<v Speaker 1>they're they're gonna buy more from GM. So so the

0:20:57.840 --> 0:21:00.240
<v Speaker 1>production is going to be there. All right. Well, all

0:21:00.400 --> 0:21:02.439
<v Speaker 1>and so much more in a new book by our

0:21:02.480 --> 0:21:05.479
<v Speaker 1>own David Well, she's Detroit Bureau chief Bloomberg News on

0:21:05.520 --> 0:21:07.639
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Detroit. His book charging ahead. G M

0:21:07.720 --> 0:21:10.760
<v Speaker 1>Mary Barra and the reinvestion, reinvention of an American icon.

0:21:11.000 --> 0:21:12.720
<v Speaker 1>It's also in the new issue of business week coming

0:21:12.720 --> 0:21:15.399
<v Speaker 1>out our thanks to Joe Webber, editor of the magazine.

0:21:16.960 --> 0:21:21.000
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

0:21:21.080 --> 0:21:24.960
<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg radio. We've said this

0:21:25.000 --> 0:21:26.760
<v Speaker 1>a lot and yet it really feels like it's ringing

0:21:26.760 --> 0:21:29.080
<v Speaker 1>true when it comes to tomorrow's fo MC decision. It

0:21:29.320 --> 0:21:32.480
<v Speaker 1>is a big one in terms of tone, sentiment and outlook.

0:21:32.560 --> 0:21:35.080
<v Speaker 1>So we've got the perfect guest to get to about it. Yeah,

0:21:35.080 --> 0:21:37.960
<v Speaker 1>I've been looking forward to chatting with Stephen Skanky all week.

0:21:38.000 --> 0:21:40.280
<v Speaker 1>He's chief economic advisor at Keel Point. He's also former

0:21:40.400 --> 0:21:43.720
<v Speaker 1>US Treasury and White House National Security Council staff member.

0:21:43.920 --> 0:21:45.960
<v Speaker 1>He joins us on the phone from Washington. D C.

0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:50.320
<v Speaker 1>Dr Skanky, Stephen, how are you? I'm great, Jim. Thanks.

0:21:50.359 --> 0:21:52.359
<v Speaker 1>So it's great to be with you and Carol. Yeah,

0:21:52.480 --> 0:21:54.000
<v Speaker 1>one of you know, one thing that we we love

0:21:54.040 --> 0:21:55.720
<v Speaker 1>is having you join us ahead of these fed meetings.

0:21:55.760 --> 0:21:58.960
<v Speaker 1>So Carol mentioned that tomorrow's is especially big. Um, we

0:21:59.040 --> 0:22:02.760
<v Speaker 1>understand whether it's gonna be seventy basis points, but, but

0:22:02.920 --> 0:22:05.480
<v Speaker 1>what else are you looking for in terms of commentary

0:22:05.560 --> 0:22:08.480
<v Speaker 1>from the Fed Chair? Well, what's really going to be

0:22:08.520 --> 0:22:12.520
<v Speaker 1>telling tomorrow is is there summary of economic projections which

0:22:12.560 --> 0:22:16.840
<v Speaker 1>comes out? The last one was in in June. Before

0:22:16.880 --> 0:22:19.600
<v Speaker 1>that it was march, and you know, What's interesting is

0:22:19.600 --> 0:22:23.040
<v Speaker 1>is the big changes from March to June and uh,

0:22:23.280 --> 0:22:26.360
<v Speaker 1>it will be really interesting to see whether there's big

0:22:26.480 --> 0:22:31.280
<v Speaker 1>changes from the June summary of economic projections to September.

0:22:31.640 --> 0:22:34.520
<v Speaker 1>How often do they change? And I mean how reliable

0:22:34.600 --> 0:22:37.119
<v Speaker 1>are they in terms of really figuring out what is

0:22:37.160 --> 0:22:39.960
<v Speaker 1>the trajectory? And, Steve, I asked that because you know

0:22:40.000 --> 0:22:42.199
<v Speaker 1>are Lisa bramwentz early in surveillance. I was listening in

0:22:42.200 --> 0:22:44.240
<v Speaker 1>this morning and she's like kind of hate the dot

0:22:44.280 --> 0:22:47.119
<v Speaker 1>plot because it can change so quickly depending on the

0:22:47.119 --> 0:22:49.560
<v Speaker 1>economic data points. The Fed can change it up. So

0:22:49.640 --> 0:22:53.760
<v Speaker 1>I'm just wondering, you know, how much real visibility that

0:22:53.800 --> 0:22:56.240
<v Speaker 1>we can rely on will we get with the projections?

0:22:56.280 --> 0:22:59.840
<v Speaker 1>Are With the Fed Commentary? Well, Carol, it comes out

0:22:59.840 --> 0:23:03.120
<v Speaker 1>every three months and it's a reflection of what the

0:23:03.200 --> 0:23:07.280
<v Speaker 1>members of the F O m c are seeing, uh,

0:23:07.400 --> 0:23:11.080
<v Speaker 1>in the data that they're looking at. So the regional

0:23:11.080 --> 0:23:13.880
<v Speaker 1>bank presidents are part of it. There, there chinnas would

0:23:13.880 --> 0:23:17.960
<v Speaker 1>going on in their regions, and then, of course, the governors,

0:23:18.640 --> 0:23:21.520
<v Speaker 1>and it can change, but it's a reflection of what

0:23:21.560 --> 0:23:25.679
<v Speaker 1>they're thinking, and that's what they're thinking. That tells us

0:23:25.680 --> 0:23:27.399
<v Speaker 1>a lot about what they're going to be doing next.

0:23:28.560 --> 0:23:30.480
<v Speaker 1>How else can we get an idea into what they're thinking,

0:23:30.520 --> 0:23:32.760
<v Speaker 1>apart from the dot plot, is Carol calls it. The

0:23:32.760 --> 0:23:36.159
<v Speaker 1>scatter plot. Is What you calling? Yeah, well, the scatter plot,

0:23:36.240 --> 0:23:38.159
<v Speaker 1>but I mean what is there a question, and just

0:23:38.160 --> 0:23:40.400
<v Speaker 1>building on what Tim saying, Steve, is there a question

0:23:40.800 --> 0:23:43.520
<v Speaker 1>that you think is crucial be asked two or of

0:23:43.640 --> 0:23:46.239
<v Speaker 1>j Powell that will give us some idea about what

0:23:46.359 --> 0:23:53.400
<v Speaker 1>comes next? Yes, the question is how satisfied are there

0:23:53.400 --> 0:23:56.280
<v Speaker 1>with the outlook for inflation? Uh, and it would be

0:23:56.320 --> 0:23:58.440
<v Speaker 1>nice to know whether he thinks that what they're doing

0:23:58.480 --> 0:24:00.960
<v Speaker 1>with the feds fund trade is Rus Making a difference.

0:24:01.520 --> 0:24:04.080
<v Speaker 1>You know, this is this inflation situation is different than

0:24:04.119 --> 0:24:07.240
<v Speaker 1>what we've had before. It's not so much excess demand,

0:24:07.280 --> 0:24:10.280
<v Speaker 1>although there is some of that, but the big issue

0:24:10.440 --> 0:24:16.159
<v Speaker 1>with is getting supply up again. Uh and and the

0:24:16.240 --> 0:24:18.720
<v Speaker 1>UH failure of folks to come back into the labor market.

0:24:18.800 --> 0:24:20.560
<v Speaker 1>But we did see a little bit more coming back

0:24:20.640 --> 0:24:26.480
<v Speaker 1>in in August, and just production has been been problematic,

0:24:27.240 --> 0:24:29.880
<v Speaker 1>and so raising interest rates will help a little bit,

0:24:30.119 --> 0:24:33.640
<v Speaker 1>but it also has the negative side effect of making

0:24:33.640 --> 0:24:37.680
<v Speaker 1>it more expensive. Is more expensive for businesses to get

0:24:37.800 --> 0:24:41.399
<v Speaker 1>production and service up. Yeah, and you know, look what

0:24:41.400 --> 0:24:43.440
<v Speaker 1>it's done to the housing market already, because that's been

0:24:43.640 --> 0:24:46.240
<v Speaker 1>that's been you know, something that's happening with the yield

0:24:46.320 --> 0:24:48.720
<v Speaker 1>on the tenure moving higher. Mortgage rates six percent now,

0:24:48.760 --> 0:24:51.840
<v Speaker 1>Steve Hey um, I'm wondering how long it takes for

0:24:52.040 --> 0:24:54.439
<v Speaker 1>what the Fed does to actually show up in in

0:24:54.480 --> 0:24:57.600
<v Speaker 1>the economy past what we've spoken about, and in a

0:24:57.680 --> 0:25:00.240
<v Speaker 1>way that will actually you know, we talk about the

0:25:00.240 --> 0:25:02.760
<v Speaker 1>strength of labor market over and over again and as

0:25:02.800 --> 0:25:04.720
<v Speaker 1>much as the fedher doesn't want to say it that

0:25:04.800 --> 0:25:07.479
<v Speaker 1>he wants, you know, people more people to you know,

0:25:07.600 --> 0:25:09.480
<v Speaker 1>essentially be out of work. He wants it to weaken.

0:25:09.800 --> 0:25:11.320
<v Speaker 1>How long does that take? When do we start to

0:25:11.359 --> 0:25:15.720
<v Speaker 1>see that in the labor market? Well, it uh the

0:25:16.440 --> 0:25:19.280
<v Speaker 1>lag time. It could be a little bit funny. It's

0:25:19.280 --> 0:25:22.560
<v Speaker 1>anywhere from six months to eighteen months. And what's different

0:25:22.640 --> 0:25:25.760
<v Speaker 1>right now is that there is so much liquidity in

0:25:25.800 --> 0:25:29.199
<v Speaker 1>the system you know, the Fed's balance sheet is uh

0:25:29.880 --> 0:25:33.359
<v Speaker 1>is almost nine trillion dollars. Fourteen years ago it was

0:25:33.440 --> 0:25:38.000
<v Speaker 1>eight dft billion, uh and UH. So with all of

0:25:38.040 --> 0:25:41.360
<v Speaker 1>that liquidity in the system, raising the Fed funds rate

0:25:41.640 --> 0:25:44.280
<v Speaker 1>uh and UH. And even if they're trying to raise

0:25:44.320 --> 0:25:47.080
<v Speaker 1>other rates, it doesn't have so much of an impact

0:25:47.160 --> 0:25:51.080
<v Speaker 1>as it would before. Certainly in an adversion of the

0:25:51.119 --> 0:25:54.800
<v Speaker 1>yeld curve will make a difference because banks will flow

0:25:54.840 --> 0:25:58.600
<v Speaker 1>down their lending, but it's a little bit hard for

0:25:58.640 --> 0:26:03.440
<v Speaker 1>some of their traditional policy tools to be effective. So,

0:26:04.440 --> 0:26:06.760
<v Speaker 1>in terms of the conversation that the F O M

0:26:06.800 --> 0:26:10.879
<v Speaker 1>C is having, they kicked off that two day meeting today.

0:26:10.920 --> 0:26:12.880
<v Speaker 1>What do you think is top of mine right now?

0:26:13.000 --> 0:26:14.960
<v Speaker 1>Is it just the I don't and I don't mean

0:26:15.000 --> 0:26:17.719
<v Speaker 1>to be a little by saying just the inflation numbers,

0:26:17.720 --> 0:26:23.080
<v Speaker 1>but is that what it's all about? Ultimately, it is Carola,

0:26:23.520 --> 0:26:29.920
<v Speaker 1>you know you. You remember the whose Song Song won't

0:26:29.960 --> 0:26:34.239
<v Speaker 1>get fooled again. Um J Powell got got fooled by

0:26:34.280 --> 0:26:40.120
<v Speaker 1>inflation after his speech at Jackson Hole last year where

0:26:40.160 --> 0:26:42.159
<v Speaker 1>there was a little bit of a head fache on

0:26:42.280 --> 0:26:45.400
<v Speaker 1>inflation and the Fed didn't really step up some things

0:26:45.440 --> 0:26:48.080
<v Speaker 1>so much and you know really, even back in March

0:26:48.680 --> 0:26:52.240
<v Speaker 1>of this year, after summary of economic projections, they were

0:26:52.280 --> 0:26:55.600
<v Speaker 1>talking about the Fed funds rate rate reaching one point

0:26:55.720 --> 0:26:59.560
<v Speaker 1>nine percent this year, by the end of this year.

0:27:00.240 --> 0:27:02.240
<v Speaker 1>And then, of course, in June they had raised that

0:27:02.280 --> 0:27:05.800
<v Speaker 1>to three point and now it looks like it's more

0:27:05.840 --> 0:27:08.680
<v Speaker 1>likely to be about four and a half percent by

0:27:08.720 --> 0:27:10.560
<v Speaker 1>the top, by the time they get to the end

0:27:10.600 --> 0:27:12.679
<v Speaker 1>of the year. They don't want to be pooled again.

0:27:13.320 --> 0:27:17.560
<v Speaker 1>And Uh, add the rhetoric. Reflection. Well, the bondmark is

0:27:17.640 --> 0:27:20.679
<v Speaker 1>certainly telling you are telling us what it thinks when

0:27:20.720 --> 0:27:23.520
<v Speaker 1>it comes to fed policy, because we've seen, you know,

0:27:24.640 --> 0:27:27.080
<v Speaker 1>a lot of treasury yields along the curve, just moving

0:27:27.119 --> 0:27:30.680
<v Speaker 1>to multi year highs Steve Skankee, Doctor Steve Skankey, chief

0:27:30.680 --> 0:27:32.959
<v Speaker 1>economic advisor of a killed point, former U s treasury

0:27:32.960 --> 0:27:35.440
<v Speaker 1>and White House National Security Council staff member, joining us

0:27:35.440 --> 0:27:38.280
<v Speaker 1>once again on the phone from Washington, D c. At

0:27:38.320 --> 0:27:41.800
<v Speaker 1>Fed decision to PM Wall Street time on Wednesday tomorrow,

0:27:41.920 --> 0:27:50.280
<v Speaker 1>right here on Bloomberg. I'm Rom a journal now, but

0:27:50.400 --> 0:27:55.240
<v Speaker 1>you let me drive. Oh No, no, no no, no, please,

0:27:55.320 --> 0:28:01.080
<v Speaker 1>I'll do the bls. I want to drive. It's a

0:28:01.080 --> 0:28:11.960
<v Speaker 1>good question. This is good drive to the clothes bird radio.

0:28:12.119 --> 0:28:15.480
<v Speaker 1>All right, everybody, just about ten minutes left in today's

0:28:15.480 --> 0:28:17.640
<v Speaker 1>trading session, about ten and a half. Bouncing around, man

0:28:17.720 --> 0:28:19.879
<v Speaker 1>in a big way. We're off our highs and lows,

0:28:19.920 --> 0:28:22.320
<v Speaker 1>but we've seen some buying come back into the market

0:28:22.320 --> 0:28:24.560
<v Speaker 1>in the last couple of hours. Of course, by this

0:28:24.640 --> 0:28:27.800
<v Speaker 1>time tomorrow we will know the latest fed decision and

0:28:27.840 --> 0:28:30.240
<v Speaker 1>Fed thinking about the outlook. Yeah, it's funny, carrol. Today

0:28:30.320 --> 0:28:31.600
<v Speaker 1>is not like hurry up in a wait when it

0:28:31.600 --> 0:28:33.439
<v Speaker 1>comes to the market. It's not funny. This is serious

0:28:33.440 --> 0:28:35.320
<v Speaker 1>stuff talk, I know, but I'm just saying it's like,

0:28:35.400 --> 0:28:37.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, funny in that interesting way. I want to

0:28:37.600 --> 0:28:40.200
<v Speaker 1>clarify for everyone listening. Brent shooty is with us. He's

0:28:40.240 --> 0:28:43.960
<v Speaker 1>chief investment officer at northwestern mutual wealth management. He joined

0:28:44.040 --> 0:28:46.360
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from Milwaukee. Brent, great to have

0:28:46.440 --> 0:28:48.880
<v Speaker 1>you with us. It's a really interesting seeing, you know,

0:28:49.360 --> 0:28:52.320
<v Speaker 1>in the equity trade today. It's not at all investors

0:28:52.360 --> 0:28:54.040
<v Speaker 1>kind of sitting back and waiting for what j Powell

0:28:54.080 --> 0:28:55.640
<v Speaker 1>is going to do. It sort of seems like they've

0:28:55.640 --> 0:28:58.880
<v Speaker 1>decided what he's gonna do. Yeah, I mean I think

0:28:58.880 --> 0:29:01.960
<v Speaker 1>you've seen some more a negative sentiment come on the

0:29:02.000 --> 0:29:04.600
<v Speaker 1>market in the past few days after the heightened CPI report.

0:29:04.840 --> 0:29:06.520
<v Speaker 1>I guess it's kind of moral back and forth, at

0:29:06.600 --> 0:29:08.160
<v Speaker 1>least today, and I think there are some people like

0:29:08.280 --> 0:29:10.720
<v Speaker 1>me who are thinking the said may decide to start

0:29:10.760 --> 0:29:13.600
<v Speaker 1>saying the word. But so, Jerome Pale, hopefully we'll talk

0:29:13.640 --> 0:29:16.360
<v Speaker 1>about all the things about inflation being high and apologize

0:29:16.480 --> 0:29:19.040
<v Speaker 1>that and saying he wants to fight that in the future.

0:29:19.680 --> 0:29:22.600
<v Speaker 1>But I think he needs to acknowledge that, despite that

0:29:22.640 --> 0:29:26.480
<v Speaker 1>backward looking CPI number, that more forward indicators are pointing

0:29:26.520 --> 0:29:29.960
<v Speaker 1>to lower inflation and that they will be coming uh

0:29:30.040 --> 0:29:32.400
<v Speaker 1>down the road. It's just how much patience does he

0:29:32.480 --> 0:29:35.320
<v Speaker 1>actually have until he gets those? So you know, Brent,

0:29:35.440 --> 0:29:37.720
<v Speaker 1>you've been investing for about a couple of decades or

0:29:37.760 --> 0:29:40.920
<v Speaker 1>so on and watching these financial markets and and different cycles,

0:29:40.920 --> 0:29:43.800
<v Speaker 1>and you think about what you have seen in that period,

0:29:43.840 --> 0:29:46.160
<v Speaker 1>from the tech bubble, the run up the bubble, the

0:29:46.200 --> 0:29:49.600
<v Speaker 1>financial crisis, real estate meltdown and then the pandemic and

0:29:49.760 --> 0:29:52.800
<v Speaker 1>kind of here where we are today. How do you

0:29:52.880 --> 0:29:56.240
<v Speaker 1>really figure out what this market cycle is? Are Are

0:29:56.280 --> 0:29:59.680
<v Speaker 1>we just kind of learning as we go? I think

0:29:59.680 --> 0:30:01.640
<v Speaker 1>that's w more unique than any other one. I've never

0:30:01.680 --> 0:30:03.560
<v Speaker 1>seen a shot down the economy, open it back up,

0:30:03.600 --> 0:30:07.000
<v Speaker 1>have good spending surge and one year on a real basis.

0:30:07.040 --> 0:30:10.680
<v Speaker 1>So think about that good spending up in one year,

0:30:10.680 --> 0:30:13.440
<v Speaker 1>in one month. How that's stressed the supply chains and

0:30:13.440 --> 0:30:16.320
<v Speaker 1>then caused the goods inflation. Uh. And so I've seen

0:30:16.360 --> 0:30:18.760
<v Speaker 1>some really odd things this time that I think make

0:30:18.800 --> 0:30:20.560
<v Speaker 1>it a bit different and a bit difficult to figure

0:30:20.560 --> 0:30:23.000
<v Speaker 1>out where we are in the business cycle. I think

0:30:23.040 --> 0:30:25.920
<v Speaker 1>the key things that I see the Fed talks about

0:30:25.920 --> 0:30:29.320
<v Speaker 1>slowing demand and I hear people talking about demand still

0:30:29.320 --> 0:30:32.360
<v Speaker 1>holding up. I think people need to wake up that

0:30:32.400 --> 0:30:35.560
<v Speaker 1>we're on our possibly third straight negative quarter of GDP.

0:30:36.440 --> 0:30:39.000
<v Speaker 1>Overall consumption is growing at a two percent year over

0:30:39.040 --> 0:30:42.320
<v Speaker 1>your pace. So it has slowed dramatically, especially on the

0:30:42.360 --> 0:30:45.760
<v Speaker 1>good side. Leading Economic Indicators will be out tomorrow. They're

0:30:45.760 --> 0:30:47.760
<v Speaker 1>going to be negative on a year of your basis.

0:30:47.840 --> 0:30:49.720
<v Speaker 1>There's been a few times they've been negative when we

0:30:49.720 --> 0:30:52.160
<v Speaker 1>haven't had a recession, but they're pointing that way. The

0:30:52.200 --> 0:30:55.040
<v Speaker 1>housing markets gone from boom to bust and you're seeing

0:30:55.040 --> 0:30:57.760
<v Speaker 1>inventories rebuilt, and so if you put these things together

0:30:57.760 --> 0:31:01.600
<v Speaker 1>in mosaic, it's logical to believe that inflation is set

0:31:01.640 --> 0:31:04.320
<v Speaker 1>to fall. The one thing that is probably still sticking

0:31:04.320 --> 0:31:06.760
<v Speaker 1>out is that labor market, which is key to decide

0:31:06.800 --> 0:31:09.000
<v Speaker 1>where you're in the cycle, and that depends on if

0:31:09.000 --> 0:31:12.320
<v Speaker 1>people come back or not Um, and so that's where

0:31:12.320 --> 0:31:14.640
<v Speaker 1>it really the rubber meets the road. So when does

0:31:14.680 --> 0:31:18.760
<v Speaker 1>inflation start to fall? Well, I think it's already started

0:31:18.800 --> 0:31:20.280
<v Speaker 1>to fall, but I think it's certainly a back and

0:31:20.360 --> 0:31:22.800
<v Speaker 1>forth and the and then you have to pick your

0:31:22.800 --> 0:31:26.920
<v Speaker 1>inflation number. Is it the eight point three percent headline CPI,

0:31:27.120 --> 0:31:30.000
<v Speaker 1>or is the four point six percent core pc? That's

0:31:30.000 --> 0:31:31.760
<v Speaker 1>where there's a huge difference right now and I'm sure

0:31:31.760 --> 0:31:33.240
<v Speaker 1>you have people come on your show with a different

0:31:33.560 --> 0:31:35.640
<v Speaker 1>with an outlook, and they kind of based their outlook

0:31:35.640 --> 0:31:38.680
<v Speaker 1>based upon what number they see. Look, inflation, I think,

0:31:38.760 --> 0:31:41.400
<v Speaker 1>is set to fall. It's hard to imagine it holding

0:31:41.480 --> 0:31:43.800
<v Speaker 1>up even though the labor market is doing well. You

0:31:43.800 --> 0:31:45.560
<v Speaker 1>want to know in the University of Michigan what consumers

0:31:45.560 --> 0:31:47.480
<v Speaker 1>said they expect her wages to be in the next year?

0:31:47.920 --> 0:31:51.760
<v Speaker 1>One seven gain. And so I don't see evidence that

0:31:51.800 --> 0:31:54.600
<v Speaker 1>inflation isn't better in the economy. I don't see evidence

0:31:54.640 --> 0:31:56.960
<v Speaker 1>that Um, the spending splurs that we have is set

0:31:57.000 --> 0:31:59.520
<v Speaker 1>to continue, and so I think inflation will come down.

0:31:59.520 --> 0:32:01.560
<v Speaker 1>It's just how, how quickly does it come down? And

0:32:01.600 --> 0:32:04.680
<v Speaker 1>the set is so afraid, so afraid of the ghosts

0:32:04.720 --> 0:32:07.080
<v Speaker 1>of the nineteen seventies, that they lose their credibility and

0:32:07.120 --> 0:32:09.080
<v Speaker 1>that's why they're talking tough. But I think they need

0:32:09.120 --> 0:32:11.360
<v Speaker 1>to back away now because they're starting to cause real

0:32:11.400 --> 0:32:14.520
<v Speaker 1>economic damage. Uh, and I think inflation set to lower

0:32:14.640 --> 0:32:17.160
<v Speaker 1>even without causing any more damage. Yeah, it's interesting. I

0:32:17.160 --> 0:32:19.239
<v Speaker 1>mean it's just inflation has been so sticky for so

0:32:19.320 --> 0:32:23.360
<v Speaker 1>much longer than everybody anticipated that. Um, you can understand

0:32:23.400 --> 0:32:26.280
<v Speaker 1>maybe the nervousness among the Fed withdrawing quickly. So do

0:32:26.360 --> 0:32:29.520
<v Speaker 1>you think then, the Fed move tomorrow should be it

0:32:29.640 --> 0:32:32.880
<v Speaker 1>for a while or done with this cycle? No, I

0:32:32.960 --> 0:32:34.360
<v Speaker 1>think what the market would look for, and what I

0:32:34.440 --> 0:32:37.360
<v Speaker 1>look for, is that the the extraordinary high hikes that

0:32:37.520 --> 0:32:40.600
<v Speaker 1>that seventy five basis point ones, the feds a trial

0:32:40.640 --> 0:32:43.480
<v Speaker 1>balloon about Um, considering not having more of those in

0:32:43.480 --> 0:32:46.280
<v Speaker 1>the future and see what happens to inflation expectations which,

0:32:46.320 --> 0:32:50.480
<v Speaker 1>by the way, across the bond market, across the consumers,

0:32:50.640 --> 0:32:53.280
<v Speaker 1>are not elevated. In many cases they're back to where

0:32:53.320 --> 0:32:55.200
<v Speaker 1>they were in two dozen fourteen, which is right before

0:32:55.200 --> 0:32:57.320
<v Speaker 1>we had that period of time where we're worried about deflation,

0:32:57.920 --> 0:33:00.360
<v Speaker 1>and so I'm not for sure they're done. We'll see. Um,

0:33:00.400 --> 0:33:02.800
<v Speaker 1>I think it depends on how inflation comes down. And

0:33:02.880 --> 0:33:04.680
<v Speaker 1>then that's where I think when people say it's sticky,

0:33:05.120 --> 0:33:07.800
<v Speaker 1>it's sticky because the housing number is calculated on a lag.

0:33:08.040 --> 0:33:10.200
<v Speaker 1>The said can keep tightening all they want, they can

0:33:10.240 --> 0:33:12.280
<v Speaker 1>destroy the housing market and it won't show up in

0:33:12.280 --> 0:33:15.040
<v Speaker 1>the data probably for another six months to a year. Okay,

0:33:15.040 --> 0:33:17.160
<v Speaker 1>so how much more do you want to do? That's

0:33:17.200 --> 0:33:19.240
<v Speaker 1>a good point, because we keep questioning some of some

0:33:19.320 --> 0:33:22.520
<v Speaker 1>of the housing statistics. Um, anyway, Tim I know you've

0:33:22.520 --> 0:33:23.720
<v Speaker 1>got a good question. Yeah, I want to ask a

0:33:23.720 --> 0:33:26.440
<v Speaker 1>little bit about cash and I'm wondering if, if we

0:33:26.480 --> 0:33:29.320
<v Speaker 1>can consider cash in a portfolio, te bills, for example,

0:33:29.440 --> 0:33:31.880
<v Speaker 1>really be considering its own asset class at this point

0:33:31.880 --> 0:33:35.480
<v Speaker 1>because rates are so high. Yeah, I think so, and

0:33:35.520 --> 0:33:37.440
<v Speaker 1>I think I think that the important message here is that,

0:33:37.480 --> 0:33:39.280
<v Speaker 1>and what I hear when I talk to retail clients

0:33:39.280 --> 0:33:41.080
<v Speaker 1>and retail investors is that people don't want to own

0:33:41.120 --> 0:33:43.760
<v Speaker 1>bonds any longer. Across the curve. I think the really

0:33:43.800 --> 0:33:46.480
<v Speaker 1>interesting thing is that you've repriced the bond market, which

0:33:46.480 --> 0:33:49.080
<v Speaker 1>is why the stock market has repriced, because those two

0:33:49.120 --> 0:33:51.840
<v Speaker 1>are connected. The girl stocks repriced the most and to me,

0:33:52.000 --> 0:33:55.560
<v Speaker 1>bonds now actually provide once again, a hedge against an

0:33:55.560 --> 0:33:59.200
<v Speaker 1>adverse outcome like a like a recession, and so, you know,

0:33:59.440 --> 0:34:01.760
<v Speaker 1>I just think people should be not focused on what

0:34:01.840 --> 0:34:03.440
<v Speaker 1>happened in the past and the reality of the bond

0:34:03.440 --> 0:34:06.680
<v Speaker 1>markets down this year, but focus more on the future.

0:34:07.160 --> 0:34:08.400
<v Speaker 1>H and at three and a half percent of the

0:34:08.480 --> 0:34:11.400
<v Speaker 1>tenure treasury there's at least real yield. Or is it

0:34:11.520 --> 0:34:13.440
<v Speaker 1>really yield? I don't know how you say it. I'm

0:34:13.480 --> 0:34:15.319
<v Speaker 1>depending upon what you think inflation is going to be.

0:34:15.360 --> 0:34:18.000
<v Speaker 1>And so I would advise people to think of cash,

0:34:18.040 --> 0:34:20.640
<v Speaker 1>to think of bonds again as something that can hedge

0:34:20.640 --> 0:34:23.560
<v Speaker 1>against adverse impacts. All right, if you want to be

0:34:23.600 --> 0:34:26.640
<v Speaker 1>in the equity market, my understanding is you want to

0:34:26.680 --> 0:34:28.760
<v Speaker 1>own things that are cheaper. So you're looking at value

0:34:28.760 --> 0:34:31.839
<v Speaker 1>in small cap in particular. Yeah, and I mean that's

0:34:31.840 --> 0:34:33.799
<v Speaker 1>where I've you know, if we've said consistently for the

0:34:33.800 --> 0:34:35.600
<v Speaker 1>past year, year and a half, that you wanted to

0:34:35.640 --> 0:34:38.239
<v Speaker 1>first head yourself by owning commodity so I was the

0:34:38.280 --> 0:34:41.480
<v Speaker 1>person looking for inflation. We actually owned tips, Um, those

0:34:41.640 --> 0:34:44.239
<v Speaker 1>that we have recommended getting rid of, but we still

0:34:44.239 --> 0:34:47.480
<v Speaker 1>own commodities. We owned gold because we didn't think bonds provided,

0:34:47.880 --> 0:34:50.560
<v Speaker 1>in many cases, an outcome, a great hedge. Um. We

0:34:50.600 --> 0:34:52.000
<v Speaker 1>want to be in things that are cheaper. I mean

0:34:52.200 --> 0:34:54.640
<v Speaker 1>those tend to do better when rates are higher and

0:34:54.680 --> 0:34:58.919
<v Speaker 1>they're they're quite a bit of protection against following earnings expectations, um,

0:34:58.960 --> 0:35:00.640
<v Speaker 1>and that's where I do think. You know, people are

0:35:00.640 --> 0:35:03.239
<v Speaker 1>worried that's coming. It might be, it probably is, but

0:35:03.280 --> 0:35:06.600
<v Speaker 1>if you have cheaper stocks, allus being equal, you have

0:35:06.600 --> 0:35:09.359
<v Speaker 1>a margin of safety. All right. Thank you so much, Brent.

0:35:09.560 --> 0:35:11.880
<v Speaker 1>I really appreciate it. Brent shooty. He is chief investment

0:35:11.880 --> 0:35:15.040
<v Speaker 1>officer over at northwestern mutual wealth management, joining us on

0:35:15.160 --> 0:35:19.399
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Milwaukee. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

0:35:19.520 --> 0:35:23.080
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0:35:23.120 --> 0:35:24.799
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0:35:28.000 --> 0:35:29.480
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