WEBVTT - AFC Over/Under Win Predictions (Ep. 53) 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:17.360 Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast. 0:00:17.480 --> 0:00:19.360 I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on 0:00:19.400 --> 0:00:22.120 Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. We are back and better 0:00:22.160 --> 0:00:25.200 than ever for the twenty twenty NFL season. Today, we 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:28.400 are going to be talking about some AFC futures, next week, 0:00:28.480 --> 0:00:30.960 some NFC futures, and then boom, we are into week 0:00:31.000 --> 0:00:33.640 one with me. To break it all down is Matt Parral, 0:00:33.760 --> 0:00:37.200 host of the Betting Pros very own Daily Juice podcast 0:00:37.479 --> 0:00:39.960 and pushing the Odds over at sports Map Radio. You 0:00:39.960 --> 0:00:42.000 can find them on Twitter at sports Talk Matt, Matt, 0:00:42.040 --> 0:00:42.560 What's up? 0:00:42.800 --> 0:00:43.239 What's up? 0:00:43.400 --> 0:00:45.960 This is our what officially? This is our first time 0:00:46.000 --> 0:00:48.120 doing a pod together since I've joined Betting Pros. 0:00:48.200 --> 0:00:50.440 Right, so this is Are you excited, m break? Are 0:00:50.479 --> 0:00:51.000 you excited? 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:53.960 Because I'm excited. I'm excited. It's great. It's so fun. 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:55.760 It's football, man, We're talking football. How about that? 0:00:56.080 --> 0:00:59.200 Thank goodness. I'm not kidding. I need some football and 0:00:59.240 --> 0:01:01.960 I need it right now. Before we get into it, 0:01:02.080 --> 0:01:04.400 can you talk a little bit about the Deli Juice podcast, 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:07.760 because I mean, I know that obviously, you know I 0:01:07.880 --> 0:01:11.160 let's do it every day and it's done for betting pros, 0:01:11.200 --> 0:01:13.520 but it's awesome. Tell everybody a little bit about it. 0:01:13.600 --> 0:01:15.520 Sure, we do it every day. It's a fifteen minute 0:01:15.560 --> 0:01:17.920 podcast that drops. I'm on the West Coast, so I 0:01:18.000 --> 0:01:20.440 drop it at about eleven eleven thirty every night, so 0:01:20.480 --> 0:01:21.800 if you're on the East coast when you get up 0:01:21.800 --> 0:01:23.520 in the morning, it'll be there right there for you. 0:01:23.600 --> 0:01:27.319 And it's essentially a breakdown of games that I like 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:30.040 each and every day, and we're making plays. Normally there's 0:01:30.080 --> 0:01:32.520 three to five plays in every podcast that we're making, 0:01:32.840 --> 0:01:35.880 and we bounce around. It's not geared towards one sport, 0:01:35.959 --> 0:01:38.119 it's not geared towards one type of betting. It's kind 0:01:38.120 --> 0:01:40.160 of all over the place, so we have kind of 0:01:40.160 --> 0:01:41.880 the whole field to go run around in. We can 0:01:41.920 --> 0:01:44.679 do like first five unders in baseball, or we can 0:01:44.720 --> 0:01:48.600 do you know, hockey overs, or we can play individual periods. 0:01:48.640 --> 0:01:51.240 And it's just been really fun because August has been 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:53.400 such an incredible run with so many sports to bet 0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:55.080 on that it's been great. I mean when we started 0:01:55.080 --> 0:01:57.320 in July, it was a little slim pickings with just 0:01:57.360 --> 0:02:00.120 like UFC and NASCAR and golf and now We've got 0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:03.080 just everything. So it's been really fun. The response has 0:02:03.080 --> 0:02:05.800 been incredible. I can't believe how many different people are 0:02:05.840 --> 0:02:07.040 listening and writing your. 0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:08.880 You're international man everything. 0:02:09.040 --> 0:02:12.720 That's crazy, all right, so many international listeners and whatnot. 0:02:12.760 --> 0:02:15.520 So it's been the most rewarding thing I've done in 0:02:15.560 --> 0:02:18.239 my now six year career in sports gambling and with 0:02:18.400 --> 0:02:20.600 content creation. It's been the most rewarding thing I've done 0:02:20.639 --> 0:02:22.520 so far, getting it off the ground as quickly as 0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:25.040 it's just exploded in eight weeks. We just did our 0:02:25.080 --> 0:02:28.120 fiftieth episode and it's been it's been so fun. So 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:30.440 it's a huge compliment to you guys. You know, you've 0:02:30.440 --> 0:02:32.480 done a great job of publicizing it and making it 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:34.760 so accessible to people who go to betting pros dot com. 0:02:34.800 --> 0:02:36.200 So it's been super fun. 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:38.440 That's true. I do deserve all the credit. Yeah, you 0:02:38.480 --> 0:02:40.880 appreciate I appreciate you. It was your idea, it was 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:43.360 my idea, You're right, but I was smart enough to 0:02:43.400 --> 0:02:46.280 have you hosted. And yeah, it is really great. And 0:02:46.320 --> 0:02:50.320 again it touches on all sports UFC. You know, you've 0:02:50.320 --> 0:02:53.720 been ingrained in the sports betting universe for forever, for 0:02:53.840 --> 0:02:55.560 you know, most of your adult life, So you really, 0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:57.600 I mean, you know, I don't know anything about betting 0:02:57.600 --> 0:02:59.200 on the UFC, but it's great to listen to and 0:02:59.240 --> 0:03:01.440 I feel like, just whatever it is, I'm so much 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:04.639 more informed generally, like regardless binding. So it's great, And 0:03:04.680 --> 0:03:07.000 I'm sure you'll be talking about NFL during the year, 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:08.760 but we are going to be talking about the NFL 0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:11.000 on this podcast. We'll get into a little bit more 0:03:11.040 --> 0:03:13.040 about what we're going to be doing during the season 0:03:13.080 --> 0:03:14.920 next week when we break down the NFC, but for now, 0:03:14.960 --> 0:03:17.359 we're going to do the AFC preview. Now, we did 0:03:17.400 --> 0:03:19.680 do an AFC preview, not me and Matt, but I 0:03:19.720 --> 0:03:23.079 did an AFC preview several months ago, well before the draft. 0:03:23.200 --> 0:03:25.200 Even so some things might have changed a little bit, 0:03:25.240 --> 0:03:27.799 including the actual numbers that we're going to be looking at. 0:03:27.800 --> 0:03:29.840 So we'll go division by division here, we'll talk about 0:03:29.880 --> 0:03:32.560 what we like, what we don't like with regard to 0:03:32.600 --> 0:03:34.239 the over unders. Now, we're going to be using the 0:03:34.440 --> 0:03:37.360 consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. That is the 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:40.240 aggregate of the odds that are available in the market. 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:42.800 You can see the individual odds at the various sports 0:03:42.840 --> 0:03:44.640 books that make up the consensus odds, so you can 0:03:44.680 --> 0:03:46.960 shop around always, but those are the numbers that we're 0:03:46.960 --> 0:03:48.720 going to be doing. Those are over at bettingpros dot 0:03:48.760 --> 0:03:52.360 com slash NFL hyphen Wins. You can find everything on 0:03:52.360 --> 0:03:53.840 that page. If you look on the left, you can 0:03:53.840 --> 0:03:58.400 find Team Futures, Player, props, et cetera. Now, like I said, 0:03:58.480 --> 0:03:59.720 you're going to be able to see a bunch of 0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:02.400 different books. For example, I'm in New Hampshire. The only 0:04:02.440 --> 0:04:04.800 book I can actually bet on is DraftKings, which you 0:04:04.840 --> 0:04:06.920 will see the odds there, but you're also going to 0:04:06.960 --> 0:04:08.880 see bet mgm odds. Those are one of the odds 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:11.520 that make up the consensus odds. And what you really 0:04:11.560 --> 0:04:14.720 should do is go to bettingpros dot com slash bet MGM. 0:04:15.080 --> 0:04:16.600 When you go there, you can sign up for a 0:04:16.600 --> 0:04:19.720 bet mgm account and they're have this great offer right 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:22.320 now where they're going to match your first deposit for 0:04:22.440 --> 0:04:25.320 new sign ups up to five hundred dollars in free bets. 0:04:25.480 --> 0:04:28.320 That's free money. That's not how gambling it's supposed to work, 0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:31.159 but that's exactly what it is with betmgm. Remember bettingpros 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:34.200 dot Com slash bet mgm sign up for an account, 0:04:34.480 --> 0:04:37.920 get a first deposit match up to five hundred dollars. 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:40.840 Visit betemgm dot com for the terms and conditions. Got 0:04:40.880 --> 0:04:43.279 to be twenty one years or older and physically located 0:04:43.279 --> 0:04:47.680 in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Nevada, or West Virginia. Please 0:04:47.720 --> 0:04:50.279 gamble responsibly if you've got a gambling problem called one 0:04:50.320 --> 0:04:52.760 eight one hundred and five to two forty seven hundred 0:04:52.920 --> 0:04:55.360 in Colorado and Nevada, one in one hundred gambler in 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:57.720 New Jersey and West Virginia, or one eight hundred and 0:04:57.800 --> 0:05:01.640 nine with it. Okay, Hey, let's go here. Start with 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:05.160 the AFC East. This is our division. Okay. Matt is 0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:09.400 a Patriots fan. I am a Jets fan. Matt despises 0:05:09.600 --> 0:05:12.440 the bills and thinks they are overrated completely if you 0:05:12.480 --> 0:05:14.600 have ever listened to him talk about anything, So Matt, 0:05:14.800 --> 0:05:16.719 let's talk about it. Consent to so odds over here. 0:05:16.880 --> 0:05:19.040 I'll just go one by one. Then you're gonna tell 0:05:19.080 --> 0:05:21.400 me which one of them, if any, the over under 0:05:21.440 --> 0:05:23.680 you like, Patriots are over under nine and a half. Now, 0:05:23.720 --> 0:05:25.839 this is obviously moved up since when we first said 0:05:25.839 --> 0:05:28.200 it because the signing of Cam Newton chamesinks even with 0:05:28.240 --> 0:05:30.400 all the losses on defense nine and a half, it 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:32.479 is juice to the over at minus one forty three 0:05:32.520 --> 0:05:35.120 even on the under. Bills are over under nine juice 0:05:35.120 --> 0:05:37.520 towards the over at minus one forty three plus one 0:05:37.600 --> 0:05:40.159 eighteen on the under. Jets are at over under six 0:05:40.200 --> 0:05:42.760 and a half juice toward the under and minus one 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:45.200 twenty five over at plus one ten, and the Dolphins 0:05:45.200 --> 0:05:47.200 are over under at six even for the under, plus 0:05:47.279 --> 0:05:49.560 one ten for the over. So Matt other than you've 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:52.320 gotta certainly hate the Bills, right because no matter what 0:05:52.560 --> 0:05:54.120 the over under would be on the Bills, you'd be 0:05:54.120 --> 0:05:55.600 like under under, it would be like four and a 0:05:55.640 --> 0:05:57.960 half wins under. Don't like them, don't like them? What's 0:05:58.000 --> 0:05:58.560 your play here? 0:05:59.080 --> 0:06:00.800 Look for me the Jets. 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:05.040 And I think the Jets that I know people might go, well, 0:06:05.080 --> 0:06:07.360 it's a low number. I think the Jets are going 0:06:07.400 --> 0:06:09.400 to be really bad, and I think they're okay with 0:06:09.520 --> 0:06:11.760 being really bad. And I think when you look at 0:06:11.760 --> 0:06:15.280 the defense and you look at the schedule, I see 0:06:15.320 --> 0:06:17.520 four wins on that schedule for the New York Jets, 0:06:17.560 --> 0:06:19.720 and so I'm not I mean, this is a big 0:06:19.800 --> 0:06:21.400 year for Sam Donald. They got a bunch of first 0:06:21.440 --> 0:06:23.280 round picks coming up in the next couple of years 0:06:23.279 --> 0:06:25.320 that they could use on a quarterback if they want to. 0:06:25.640 --> 0:06:27.840 Donald needs to stop throwing interceptions, and I look, I 0:06:27.839 --> 0:06:31.560 think Adam Gase is a horrible coach. So I'm very 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:33.520 much down on the New York Jets. I'm on the 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:35.920 under for the Jets. That was a pick on the 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:38.320 Daily Juice we gave out that. I think if you 0:06:38.320 --> 0:06:40.280 can find six and a half, I go under on 0:06:40.400 --> 0:06:41.360 the on the Jets. 0:06:41.400 --> 0:06:41.599 Here. 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:45.400 I just think they're gonna be They'll be towards the bottom. 0:06:45.440 --> 0:06:47.279 They'll probably be a little bit better than the Dolphins, 0:06:47.360 --> 0:06:48.839 but not a whole lot better than the Dolphins. 0:06:49.200 --> 0:06:50.960 Does it change your mind to the fact that they 0:06:51.040 --> 0:06:52.480 traded for Kaalin Blaje? 0:06:52.800 --> 0:06:57.159 Oh totally yes. I look out wins huge, So. 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:00.600 I'm actually surprised this doesn't move from It might have 0:07:00.640 --> 0:07:02.159 been seven, I guess at one point, but I've seen 0:07:02.160 --> 0:07:04.400 it six and a half pretty much rout. I kind 0:07:04.400 --> 0:07:07.960 of liked them a little bit, but not anymore. But 0:07:08.160 --> 0:07:11.360 before sort of all everything that's happened lately, I kind 0:07:11.360 --> 0:07:13.200 of liked them. I mean, they were seven and nine 0:07:13.400 --> 0:07:16.640 last year and they were terrible. They weren't as good 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:19.120 as a seven to nine team. They had no offensive 0:07:19.120 --> 0:07:23.000 line whatsoever. Last year they played three games without Darnold 0:07:23.120 --> 0:07:25.840 at all. And this year, you know, they obviously rebuilt 0:07:25.840 --> 0:07:28.160 the offensive line, you know, when they drafted Beckton and 0:07:28.200 --> 0:07:31.679 Greg Van Rotten and McGovern and George Fant. Chris Herndon 0:07:31.880 --> 0:07:33.920 is a player I really like at tight end. I 0:07:33.960 --> 0:07:36.400 like Jameson Crowder. They lost Robby Anderson, they replaced him 0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:39.840 with Brashad Perman. They drafted Denzel Mims, but again, Mims 0:07:39.840 --> 0:07:42.000 now is dealing with a hamstring. And that was all 0:07:42.040 --> 0:07:45.040 before they traded Jamal Adams, which, by the way, they 0:07:45.080 --> 0:07:47.160 did get a pretty good haul concerning they you know, 0:07:47.520 --> 0:07:49.920 they you know, he was in a point where they 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:51.679 really could have held him and done whatever they wanted. 0:07:51.680 --> 0:07:53.440 But they got a pretty good haul for him. But 0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:57.160 then you know CJ. Moseley opted out. It's it's just 0:07:57.240 --> 0:07:59.720 no good. It's no good. And they have, you know, 0:08:00.240 --> 0:08:02.200 a side, but they're not going to be a good team. 0:08:02.320 --> 0:08:05.360 They have a terrible schedule, as you mentioned. They're out 0:08:05.400 --> 0:08:08.280 West two straight weeks, by the way, in Seattle and 0:08:08.320 --> 0:08:11.400 Los Angeles, Like that's just like a I don't know, 0:08:11.520 --> 0:08:13.400 it's a shot at them, it's I'm surprised that hasn't 0:08:13.480 --> 0:08:16.120 moved much. I get that it's juiced. You know that 0:08:16.160 --> 0:08:19.600 they're trying to get you. Actually, yeah, they're trying to 0:08:19.600 --> 0:08:21.080 get you. Take the over it's plus one ten ye, 0:08:21.480 --> 0:08:25.320 you know, I get it. But yeah, that's my favorite 0:08:25.320 --> 0:08:27.400 one too. And the guy, you know, my boss is 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:29.360 listening to this because he's like a closet Jets fan, 0:08:29.400 --> 0:08:32.320 and he's definitely gonna be mad at me. But I agree. 0:08:32.360 --> 0:08:34.120 I liked him kind of At the over, I thought 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:36.599 they get seven eight wins, But now I'm firmly on 0:08:36.640 --> 0:08:37.120 the underrege. 0:08:37.120 --> 0:08:39.000 Well, look, I mean I think that the popular play 0:08:39.080 --> 0:08:40.559 is the Patriots on the under right. I think a 0:08:40.600 --> 0:08:42.439 lot of people have faded the Patriots with nine and 0:08:42.480 --> 0:08:44.600 a half wins, and I don't really hate that play. 0:08:44.600 --> 0:08:46.000 If I was going to take a second play to 0:08:46.040 --> 0:08:47.440 bet on, I think it would be the Patriots at 0:08:47.520 --> 0:08:49.280 nine wins nine and a half. 0:08:49.280 --> 0:08:50.360 That hulk I think matters. 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:53.200 I think nine and seven is legitimate record for the Patriots, 0:08:53.200 --> 0:08:55.000 given the number of people who have opted out on 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:58.080 that defense. Don't a high tower and whatnot. They've drafted well, 0:08:58.120 --> 0:09:01.120 but historically speaking, Patriot players don't step in right away 0:09:01.160 --> 0:09:03.760 and contribute, in particular on the offense side of the football. 0:09:03.800 --> 0:09:05.320 But you know, they've got Damien. 0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:07.080 Harris who's been getting more and more reps, who seems 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:09.000 to be taking the place of Tony Michelle, who has 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:11.120 been sort of the bane of Patriot fans for a 0:09:11.160 --> 0:09:14.120 long time about his inability to break tackles. And you 0:09:14.280 --> 0:09:16.640 have a big home run hitter at the running back spot, 0:09:16.720 --> 0:09:18.959 so you know, maybe it's an Alabama back that will 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:20.960 come in here and help that Patriot offense out. But 0:09:20.960 --> 0:09:23.080 I think the biggest X factor is just the play calling. 0:09:23.200 --> 0:09:25.440 With Cam Newton at the quarterback spot. Jared Stindham was 0:09:25.440 --> 0:09:27.000 never going to start for the Patriots. It was always 0:09:27.000 --> 0:09:28.880 going to be Cam Newton. So I think the play 0:09:28.880 --> 0:09:31.160 calling is going to look a lot like when they 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:33.800 had Jimmy Garoppolo back in the deflate eight years, when 0:09:33.840 --> 0:09:35.160 you had a chance to roll them out to get 0:09:35.200 --> 0:09:37.119 him on the edge, get him up against a linebacker 0:09:37.520 --> 0:09:39.640 or a cornerback and let him go make a play. 0:09:39.679 --> 0:09:41.880 So I do expect the offense to be a little 0:09:41.880 --> 0:09:44.720 bit better than people think, But the defense. I'm worried 0:09:44.720 --> 0:09:46.600 about the defense with the Patriots because of the number 0:09:46.640 --> 0:09:48.920 of players that they've lost due to COVID nineteen opt out. 0:09:49.040 --> 0:09:51.600 So I think the Patriots going nine and seven and 0:09:51.679 --> 0:09:54.040 either tying for the division or winning the division is 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:57.400 very likely. But that's why people liking Buffalo to win 0:09:57.440 --> 0:09:59.600 ten games potentially and win the division at ten and 0:09:59.640 --> 0:10:02.079 six not a crazy statement. I just I don't like 0:10:02.240 --> 0:10:05.000 Josh Allen at all. So I mean, to me, Patriots 0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:07.320 under nine and a half is not a horrible play either. 0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:10.079 Yeah, I'm not going to touch the Patriots. I think 0:10:10.080 --> 0:10:13.439 if I look at the you know, all of their parts, 0:10:13.600 --> 0:10:15.720 it's not a ten win team. So I would be 0:10:15.720 --> 0:10:18.199 fine to go under. But I'm just I'm not gonna 0:10:18.200 --> 0:10:20.679 do it. Like I'm not I'm not going to bet 0:10:20.800 --> 0:10:24.360 against Belichick or McDaniel's figuring out a way to max 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:27.600 and they have the maybe from top to bottom, the 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:29.960 worst group of pass catchers in the NFL when you 0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:32.160 really sort of look at it, you know, considering everything, 0:10:32.360 --> 0:10:34.400 But I don't know how much any of that matters, 0:10:34.440 --> 0:10:36.880 Like it really, you know, the hits that their defense 0:10:36.920 --> 0:10:39.040 took and everything like that, I don't know, I. 0:10:39.280 --> 0:10:40.960 Know they're going to run the ball. I mean, they're 0:10:40.960 --> 0:10:42.480 not gonna throw the ball much with Cam. That's why 0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:44.000 they brought Cam in. I mean that they're gonna throw. 0:10:44.040 --> 0:10:45.920 I mean Edelman will get his catches, and they like 0:10:45.920 --> 0:10:47.800 the two tight ends they drafted, you know who are 0:10:47.800 --> 0:10:50.440 coming in. But I mean, I think that Nikhil Harry 0:10:50.520 --> 0:10:52.520 might take a big step forward in year two. You hope, 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:54.240 he was the first round pick up wide receiver, so 0:10:54.280 --> 0:10:56.360 you hope with Cam Newton maybe you know, there's more 0:10:56.400 --> 0:10:58.760 trust there. Bradie didn't trust him at all, so maybe 0:10:58.760 --> 0:11:02.120 there's a step forward him in his career. But they're 0:11:02.120 --> 0:11:04.320 going to try to beat people, you know, twenty three 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:06.599 twenty they're just not going to be the Chiefs. You know, 0:11:06.640 --> 0:11:08.640 they're not gonna try to run. I mean unders on 0:11:08.679 --> 0:11:10.800 Patriot games probably are going to be pretty successful to 0:11:10.840 --> 0:11:12.400 bet on, just because of the way they're gonna try 0:11:12.440 --> 0:11:13.000 to play this year. 0:11:13.360 --> 0:11:15.880 Yeah, no, I like it. So I think the one 0:11:15.920 --> 0:11:17.599 play that we both really like is under on the 0:11:17.640 --> 0:11:20.960 Jets sixty and a half wins. I'm surprised, like I'll 0:11:20.960 --> 0:11:22.920 be on this, Matt, like, I you know, I you know, 0:11:23.120 --> 0:11:25.240 not that I monitor sort of the market. But you know, 0:11:25.280 --> 0:11:28.000 I follow chart betters and you're pretty intune. Do you 0:11:28.000 --> 0:11:31.160 know anybody, anybody who knows what they're doing, who's on 0:11:31.280 --> 0:11:33.520 the over on the Jets, Because I just hear not 0:11:33.880 --> 0:11:35.120 everybody is on the under. 0:11:35.280 --> 0:11:37.920 Yeah, it's either no play or an underplay. I don't 0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:40.080 think you can realistically bet the over on the Jets, 0:11:40.160 --> 0:11:42.760 just given what we're talking about. And look, Adam Gase 0:11:42.880 --> 0:11:46.280 Le'Veon bell on Twitter being angry about practices and I'm 0:11:46.320 --> 0:11:48.200 used to go go go type stuff. I mean, it's 0:11:48.240 --> 0:11:50.560 just there's a whole lot of problems in red flags 0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:51.760 around for coach. 0:11:51.600 --> 0:11:54.560 Matt he's a terrible, terrible coach. And I said this, 0:11:54.640 --> 0:11:56.400 and I joke not to get an intangent. We'll move 0:11:56.400 --> 0:11:59.439 on now. But I said this when they were considering 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:02.120 who to hire, and it was between him and Mike McCarthy. Now, 0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:05.559 to Mike McCarthy's absolute credit, he has gone into Dallas 0:12:05.559 --> 0:12:08.280 and he has said I'm not implementing my own system. 0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:10.080 I'm gonna trust what Kellen Moore is doing and I'm 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:13.320 leaving that there. That's to his credit, But I knew 0:12:13.360 --> 0:12:17.199 if they signed McCarthy, that's like a four year higher minimum. Right, 0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:18.839 he can't tank for a year or two and you 0:12:18.880 --> 0:12:21.600 can be like on with Gas. I was like, okay, fine, 0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:24.240 try it with Gaye. See what happens. He brought the 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:26.720 Dolphins to the playoffs that one time. If he's terrible, 0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:28.920 you can ditch him after a year and a half, 0:12:28.960 --> 0:12:30.719 which is exactly what they're gonna do, right, I mean 0:12:30.720 --> 0:12:33.080 if he maybe he survives this season, but he's not 0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:34.360 gonna be the coach of the Jets next season. 0:12:34.480 --> 0:12:35.800 Yeah. No, I agree, he's fine. 0:12:35.880 --> 0:12:38.320 Letting him burn this whole thing to the ground. I 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:40.319 do like Darnold. I'm a low bullshanam. I think he's 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:42.320 been put in a tough situation for a long time, 0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:44.760 but hopefully he can at least show some promise with 0:12:44.840 --> 0:12:46.960 the ofvinsive line. All right, let's move to the north here. 0:12:47.320 --> 0:12:50.240 Raven's over under eleven and a half even on the 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:52.480 over minus one of six on the ender Steelers over 0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:55.000 under nine. Both sides are even. Brown's over under eight 0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:56.640 and a half juice to over a bit mice one 0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:58.719 twenty five even on the under, and the Bengals over 0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:01.800 under five and a half over is minus one thirty 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:03.960 four under at plus one ten. So who do you 0:13:04.080 --> 0:13:04.839 like in the North? 0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:09.599 Look, I understand that people think that Zach Taylor is 0:13:09.600 --> 0:13:12.640 going to be a good coach, But I covered Zach 0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:15.360 Taylor at Nebraska. He's a very smart dude. Dad's a 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:18.480 coach football mind, not a head coach. Not right now, 0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:21.360 too young, too much, too early, and now you're giving 0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:22.520 him a quarterback he has. 0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:24.200 To play in Joe Burrow? Who I like? 0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:26.840 Who will be a good quarterback down the road? I'm 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:28.600 on the under five and a half wins with the Bengals. 0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:30.319 I think they're going to be terrible. I mean, you 0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:33.760 can't work the way you normally would work with a rookie, 0:13:34.040 --> 0:13:36.320 and you still have the number one pick, so you 0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:38.439 have to play the number one pick, and you must 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:40.520 put him in a position against NFL defenses where he 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:41.559 must read defenses. 0:13:42.040 --> 0:13:43.559 I think this is going to be a bad year 0:13:43.600 --> 0:13:44.760 for the Bengals. I don't know. 0:13:45.080 --> 0:13:48.600 In that division, playing the Steelers and the Ravens, I mean, 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:51.679 where are the wins coming for that team? I just 0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:54.840 I don't think. I think everyone's expecting Joe Burrow to 0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:57.079 be lsu Joe Burrow, and I don't see it. I 0:13:57.120 --> 0:13:59.480 don't think it's going to happen. I'm on the under 0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:00.000 for the Bengals. 0:14:00.480 --> 0:14:02.760 I can see four games, right, four games kind of 0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:05.560 hit me. The Redskins, the Jaguars, Oh not the Redskins, sorry, 0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:09.960 the Washington football Sorry, my mistake. The Washington football team, 0:14:10.080 --> 0:14:12.600 the Jaguars, the Dolphins, and the Giants. I don't really 0:14:12.640 --> 0:14:15.160 know what else they do to get some wins there. 0:14:15.200 --> 0:14:19.120 It's not a good team now, you know, especially this year. 0:14:19.200 --> 0:14:20.760 This is a year where when you don't have the 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:23.760 preseason games, right, you got a rookie quarterback coming in 0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:26.880 learning it. It's really tough. It is really really tough. 0:14:27.120 --> 0:14:29.320 They have, you know, getting Jonah Williams back is going 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:32.120 to help the offensive line. They spend a lot of 0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:34.640 money on their defense coming in. But again, this is 0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:37.560 a this is a just a terrible division for them 0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:39.840 to be playing in because you have at least two 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:44.200 really strong teams, maybe a third with the Browns. So yeah, 0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:46.880 I like it out of curiosity because I do have 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:49.200 leans on each of the other one. The Bengals, I 0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:51.720 lean under, but it's not one all right, let's go 0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:53.760 one by one. Ravens over under eleven and a half. 0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:54.600 How do you feel about it. 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:57.800 Look, I think because of the continuity that the Ravens have, 0:14:57.880 --> 0:15:00.400 you play the over there. But it's so steep. I mean, 0:15:00.440 --> 0:15:02.400 it's just so tough. I mean twelve games, I mean, 0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:04.960 could I see them go eleven and five? Absolutely? I 0:15:05.040 --> 0:15:07.400 just think when you have you know, hardball, and you 0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:09.920 have the reigning MVP, and you've got that running game 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:12.000 and they got deeper at running back in the draft, 0:15:12.720 --> 0:15:15.280 that's a really scary team to go up against. I mean, 0:15:15.280 --> 0:15:19.640 they're gonna in particular in this given pandemic year, the 0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:21.840 Ravens are really scary to bet the under there, So 0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:24.040 it's a no play, but I would go over if 0:15:24.080 --> 0:15:24.480 I had to. 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:26.680 I'm okay to go over on This was just crazy 0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:29.240 because you're like, great, I'm betting on this team to 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:32.320 win twelve ons. They obviously had four team last year. 0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:35.920 But yeah, like you said, they got better everywhere pretty much. 0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:38.480 They addressed their deficiencies even that they had their devents. 0:15:38.520 --> 0:15:40.040 I think their defense is going to be even better. 0:15:40.240 --> 0:15:42.280 And you mentioned it as the continuity. There are four 0:15:42.320 --> 0:15:46.760 teams in the AFC who have the same head coach, 0:15:46.880 --> 0:15:50.040 the same offensive coordinator, the same quarterback, the same top 0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:52.760 two wide receivers, the Ravens are one of them. It's 0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:55.920 a team. Look, even if you know Jackson got injured, 0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:58.120 like you know obviously you know you don't you're not 0:15:58.160 --> 0:16:01.320 excited about Robert Griffin the third, but he could run 0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:04.400 that offense pretty well in terms of knowing exactly how 0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:06.160 to do these the same style of quarterbacks. So I 0:16:06.240 --> 0:16:08.280 just think in the end there would be something where 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:09.720 I'd be willing to go. How do you feel about 0:16:09.720 --> 0:16:11.600 the Steelers at over under nine? 0:16:11.680 --> 0:16:13.800 You know, it's interesting because the receiving corps, you know, 0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:15.640 they had a couple of guys last year didn't perform 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:17.600 because of the injury with Ben Roethlisberger that they thought 0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:20.120 would step up and be bigger weapons inside that offense. 0:16:20.160 --> 0:16:22.360 And you look at the running game and you know 0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:23.040 the defense. 0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:25.400 I really have a tough time with this team because 0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:28.640 if Roethlisberger comes back in plays at you know, vintage Ben. 0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:31.800 Roethlisberger, they could be really difficult to go up against. 0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:35.080