Speaker 1: Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. We are back and better
Speaker 1: than ever for the twenty twenty NFL season. Today, we
Speaker 1: are going to be talking about some AFC futures, next week,
Speaker 1: some NFC futures, and then boom, we are into week
Speaker 1: one with me. To break it all down is Matt Parral,
Speaker 1: host of the Betting Pros very own Daily Juice podcast
Speaker 1: and pushing the Odds over at sports Map Radio. You
Speaker 1: can find them on Twitter at sports Talk Matt, Matt,
Speaker 1: What's up?
Speaker 2: What's up?
Speaker 3: This is our what officially? This is our first time
Speaker 3: doing a pod together since I've joined Betting Pros.
Speaker 1: Right, so this is Are you excited, m break? Are
Speaker 1: you excited?
Speaker 2: Because I'm excited. I'm excited. It's great. It's so fun.
Speaker 2: It's football, man, We're talking football. How about that?
Speaker 1: Thank goodness. I'm not kidding. I need some football and
Speaker 1: I need it right now. Before we get into it,
Speaker 1: can you talk a little bit about the Deli Juice podcast,
Speaker 1: because I mean, I know that obviously, you know I
Speaker 1: let's do it every day and it's done for betting pros,
Speaker 1: but it's awesome. Tell everybody a little bit about it.
Speaker 3: Sure, we do it every day. It's a fifteen minute
Speaker 3: podcast that drops. I'm on the West Coast, so I
Speaker 3: drop it at about eleven eleven thirty every night, so
Speaker 3: if you're on the East coast when you get up
Speaker 3: in the morning, it'll be there right there for you.
Speaker 3: And it's essentially a breakdown of games that I like
Speaker 3: each and every day, and we're making plays. Normally there's
Speaker 3: three to five plays in every podcast that we're making,
Speaker 3: and we bounce around. It's not geared towards one sport,
Speaker 3: it's not geared towards one type of betting. It's kind
Speaker 3: of all over the place, so we have kind of
Speaker 3: the whole field to go run around in. We can
Speaker 3: do like first five unders in baseball, or we can
Speaker 3: do you know, hockey overs, or we can play individual periods.
Speaker 3: And it's just been really fun because August has been
Speaker 3: such an incredible run with so many sports to bet
Speaker 3: on that it's been great. I mean when we started
Speaker 3: in July, it was a little slim pickings with just
Speaker 3: like UFC and NASCAR and golf and now We've got
Speaker 3: just everything. So it's been really fun. The response has
Speaker 3: been incredible. I can't believe how many different people are
Speaker 3: listening and writing your.
Speaker 1: You're international man everything.
Speaker 3: That's crazy, all right, so many international listeners and whatnot.
Speaker 3: So it's been the most rewarding thing I've done in
Speaker 3: my now six year career in sports gambling and with
Speaker 3: content creation. It's been the most rewarding thing I've done
Speaker 3: so far, getting it off the ground as quickly as
Speaker 3: it's just exploded in eight weeks. We just did our
Speaker 3: fiftieth episode and it's been it's been so fun. So
Speaker 3: it's a huge compliment to you guys. You know, you've
Speaker 3: done a great job of publicizing it and making it
Speaker 3: so accessible to people who go to betting pros dot com.
Speaker 2: So it's been super fun.
Speaker 1: That's true. I do deserve all the credit. Yeah, you
Speaker 1: appreciate I appreciate you. It was your idea, it was
Speaker 1: my idea, You're right, but I was smart enough to
Speaker 1: have you hosted. And yeah, it is really great. And
Speaker 1: again it touches on all sports UFC. You know, you've
Speaker 1: been ingrained in the sports betting universe for forever, for
Speaker 1: you know, most of your adult life, So you really,
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I don't know anything about betting
Speaker 1: on the UFC, but it's great to listen to and
Speaker 1: I feel like, just whatever it is, I'm so much
Speaker 1: more informed generally, like regardless binding. So it's great, And
Speaker 1: I'm sure you'll be talking about NFL during the year,
Speaker 1: but we are going to be talking about the NFL
Speaker 1: on this podcast. We'll get into a little bit more
Speaker 1: about what we're going to be doing during the season
Speaker 1: next week when we break down the NFC, but for now,
Speaker 1: we're going to do the AFC preview. Now, we did
Speaker 1: do an AFC preview, not me and Matt, but I
Speaker 1: did an AFC preview several months ago, well before the draft.
Speaker 1: Even so some things might have changed a little bit,
Speaker 1: including the actual numbers that we're going to be looking at.
Speaker 1: So we'll go division by division here, we'll talk about
Speaker 1: what we like, what we don't like with regard to
Speaker 1: the over unders. Now, we're going to be using the
Speaker 1: consensus odds over at bettingpros dot com. That is the
Speaker 1: aggregate of the odds that are available in the market.
Speaker 1: You can see the individual odds at the various sports
Speaker 1: books that make up the consensus odds, so you can
Speaker 1: shop around always, but those are the numbers that we're
Speaker 1: going to be doing. Those are over at bettingpros dot
Speaker 1: com slash NFL hyphen Wins. You can find everything on
Speaker 1: that page. If you look on the left, you can
Speaker 1: find Team Futures, Player, props, et cetera. Now, like I said,
Speaker 1: you're going to be able to see a bunch of
Speaker 1: different books. For example, I'm in New Hampshire. The only
Speaker 1: book I can actually bet on is DraftKings, which you
Speaker 1: will see the odds there, but you're also going to
Speaker 1: see bet mgm odds. Those are one of the odds
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Speaker 1: nine with it. Okay, Hey, let's go here. Start with
Speaker 1: the AFC East. This is our division. Okay. Matt is
Speaker 1: a Patriots fan. I am a Jets fan. Matt despises
Speaker 1: the bills and thinks they are overrated completely if you
Speaker 1: have ever listened to him talk about anything, So Matt,
Speaker 1: let's talk about it. Consent to so odds over here.
Speaker 1: I'll just go one by one. Then you're gonna tell
Speaker 1: me which one of them, if any, the over under
Speaker 1: you like, Patriots are over under nine and a half. Now,
Speaker 1: this is obviously moved up since when we first said
Speaker 1: it because the signing of Cam Newton chamesinks even with
Speaker 1: all the losses on defense nine and a half, it
Speaker 1: is juice to the over at minus one forty three
Speaker 1: even on the under. Bills are over under nine juice
Speaker 1: towards the over at minus one forty three plus one
Speaker 1: eighteen on the under. Jets are at over under six
Speaker 1: and a half juice toward the under and minus one
Speaker 1: twenty five over at plus one ten, and the Dolphins
Speaker 1: are over under at six even for the under, plus
Speaker 1: one ten for the over. So Matt other than you've
Speaker 1: gotta certainly hate the Bills, right because no matter what
Speaker 1: the over under would be on the Bills, you'd be
Speaker 1: like under under, it would be like four and a
Speaker 1: half wins under. Don't like them, don't like them? What's
Speaker 1: your play here?
Speaker 2: Look for me the Jets.
Speaker 3: And I think the Jets that I know people might go, well,
Speaker 3: it's a low number. I think the Jets are going
Speaker 3: to be really bad, and I think they're okay with
Speaker 3: being really bad. And I think when you look at
Speaker 3: the defense and you look at the schedule, I see
Speaker 3: four wins on that schedule for the New York Jets,
Speaker 3: and so I'm not I mean, this is a big
Speaker 3: year for Sam Donald. They got a bunch of first
Speaker 3: round picks coming up in the next couple of years
Speaker 3: that they could use on a quarterback if they want to.
Speaker 3: Donald needs to stop throwing interceptions, and I look, I
Speaker 3: think Adam Gase is a horrible coach. So I'm very
Speaker 3: much down on the New York Jets. I'm on the
Speaker 3: under for the Jets. That was a pick on the
Speaker 3: Daily Juice we gave out that. I think if you
Speaker 3: can find six and a half, I go under on
Speaker 3: the on the Jets.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 3: I just think they're gonna be They'll be towards the bottom.
Speaker 3: They'll probably be a little bit better than the Dolphins,
Speaker 3: but not a whole lot better than the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: Does it change your mind to the fact that they
Speaker 1: traded for Kaalin Blaje?
Speaker 2: Oh totally yes. I look out wins huge, So.
Speaker 1: I'm actually surprised this doesn't move from It might have
Speaker 1: been seven, I guess at one point, but I've seen
Speaker 1: it six and a half pretty much rout. I kind
Speaker 1: of liked them a little bit, but not anymore. But
Speaker 1: before sort of all everything that's happened lately, I kind
Speaker 1: of liked them. I mean, they were seven and nine
Speaker 1: last year and they were terrible. They weren't as good
Speaker 1: as a seven to nine team. They had no offensive
Speaker 1: line whatsoever. Last year they played three games without Darnold
Speaker 1: at all. And this year, you know, they obviously rebuilt
Speaker 1: the offensive line, you know, when they drafted Beckton and
Speaker 1: Greg Van Rotten and McGovern and George Fant. Chris Herndon
Speaker 1: is a player I really like at tight end. I
Speaker 1: like Jameson Crowder. They lost Robby Anderson, they replaced him
Speaker 1: with Brashad Perman. They drafted Denzel Mims, but again, Mims
Speaker 1: now is dealing with a hamstring. And that was all
Speaker 1: before they traded Jamal Adams, which, by the way, they
Speaker 1: did get a pretty good haul concerning they you know,
Speaker 1: they you know, he was in a point where they
Speaker 1: really could have held him and done whatever they wanted.
Speaker 1: But they got a pretty good haul for him. But
Speaker 1: then you know CJ. Moseley opted out. It's it's just
Speaker 1: no good. It's no good. And they have, you know,
Speaker 1: a side, but they're not going to be a good team.
Speaker 1: They have a terrible schedule, as you mentioned. They're out
Speaker 1: West two straight weeks, by the way, in Seattle and
Speaker 1: Los Angeles, Like that's just like a I don't know,
Speaker 1: it's a shot at them, it's I'm surprised that hasn't
Speaker 1: moved much. I get that it's juiced. You know that
Speaker 1: they're trying to get you. Actually, yeah, they're trying to
Speaker 1: get you. Take the over it's plus one ten ye,
Speaker 1: you know, I get it. But yeah, that's my favorite
Speaker 1: one too. And the guy, you know, my boss is
Speaker 1: listening to this because he's like a closet Jets fan,
Speaker 1: and he's definitely gonna be mad at me. But I agree.
Speaker 1: I liked him kind of At the over, I thought
Speaker 1: they get seven eight wins, But now I'm firmly on
Speaker 1: the underrege.
Speaker 3: Well, look, I mean I think that the popular play
Speaker 3: is the Patriots on the under right. I think a
Speaker 3: lot of people have faded the Patriots with nine and
Speaker 3: a half wins, and I don't really hate that play.
Speaker 3: If I was going to take a second play to
Speaker 3: bet on, I think it would be the Patriots at
Speaker 3: nine wins nine and a half.
Speaker 2: That hulk I think matters.
Speaker 3: I think nine and seven is legitimate record for the Patriots,
Speaker 3: given the number of people who have opted out on
Speaker 3: that defense. Don't a high tower and whatnot. They've drafted well,
Speaker 3: but historically speaking, Patriot players don't step in right away
Speaker 3: and contribute, in particular on the offense side of the football.
Speaker 2: But you know, they've got Damien.
Speaker 3: Harris who's been getting more and more reps, who seems
Speaker 3: to be taking the place of Tony Michelle, who has
Speaker 3: been sort of the bane of Patriot fans for a
Speaker 3: long time about his inability to break tackles. And you
Speaker 3: have a big home run hitter at the running back spot,
Speaker 3: so you know, maybe it's an Alabama back that will
Speaker 3: come in here and help that Patriot offense out. But
Speaker 3: I think the biggest X factor is just the play calling.
Speaker 3: With Cam Newton at the quarterback spot. Jared Stindham was
Speaker 3: never going to start for the Patriots. It was always
Speaker 3: going to be Cam Newton. So I think the play
Speaker 3: calling is going to look a lot like when they
Speaker 3: had Jimmy Garoppolo back in the deflate eight years, when
Speaker 3: you had a chance to roll them out to get
Speaker 3: him on the edge, get him up against a linebacker
Speaker 3: or a cornerback and let him go make a play.
Speaker 3: So I do expect the offense to be a little
Speaker 3: bit better than people think, But the defense. I'm worried
Speaker 3: about the defense with the Patriots because of the number
Speaker 3: of players that they've lost due to COVID nineteen opt out.
Speaker 3: So I think the Patriots going nine and seven and
Speaker 3: either tying for the division or winning the division is
Speaker 3: very likely. But that's why people liking Buffalo to win
Speaker 3: ten games potentially and win the division at ten and
Speaker 3: six not a crazy statement. I just I don't like
Speaker 3: Josh Allen at all. So I mean, to me, Patriots
Speaker 3: under nine and a half is not a horrible play either.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not going to touch the Patriots. I think
Speaker 1: if I look at the you know, all of their parts,
Speaker 1: it's not a ten win team. So I would be
Speaker 1: fine to go under. But I'm just I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: do it. Like I'm not I'm not going to bet
Speaker 1: against Belichick or McDaniel's figuring out a way to max
Speaker 1: and they have the maybe from top to bottom, the
Speaker 1: worst group of pass catchers in the NFL when you
Speaker 1: really sort of look at it, you know, considering everything,
Speaker 1: But I don't know how much any of that matters,
Speaker 1: Like it really, you know, the hits that their defense
Speaker 1: took and everything like that, I don't know, I.
Speaker 3: Know they're going to run the ball. I mean, they're
Speaker 3: not gonna throw the ball much with Cam. That's why
Speaker 3: they brought Cam in. I mean that they're gonna throw.
Speaker 3: I mean Edelman will get his catches, and they like
Speaker 3: the two tight ends they drafted, you know who are
Speaker 3: coming in. But I mean, I think that Nikhil Harry
Speaker 3: might take a big step forward in year two. You hope,
Speaker 3: he was the first round pick up wide receiver, so
Speaker 3: you hope with Cam Newton maybe you know, there's more
Speaker 3: trust there. Bradie didn't trust him at all, so maybe
Speaker 3: there's a step forward him in his career. But they're
Speaker 3: going to try to beat people, you know, twenty three
Speaker 3: twenty they're just not going to be the Chiefs. You know,
Speaker 3: they're not gonna try to run. I mean unders on
Speaker 3: Patriot games probably are going to be pretty successful to
Speaker 3: bet on, just because of the way they're gonna try
Speaker 3: to play this year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I like it. So I think the one
Speaker 1: play that we both really like is under on the
Speaker 1: Jets sixty and a half wins. I'm surprised, like I'll
Speaker 1: be on this, Matt, like, I you know, I you know,
Speaker 1: not that I monitor sort of the market. But you know,
Speaker 1: I follow chart betters and you're pretty intune. Do you
Speaker 1: know anybody, anybody who knows what they're doing, who's on
Speaker 1: the over on the Jets, Because I just hear not
Speaker 1: everybody is on the under.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's either no play or an underplay. I don't
Speaker 3: think you can realistically bet the over on the Jets,
Speaker 3: just given what we're talking about. And look, Adam Gase
Speaker 3: Le'Veon bell on Twitter being angry about practices and I'm
Speaker 3: used to go go go type stuff. I mean, it's
Speaker 3: just there's a whole lot of problems in red flags
Speaker 3: around for coach.
Speaker 1: Matt he's a terrible, terrible coach. And I said this,
Speaker 1: and I joke not to get an intangent. We'll move
Speaker 1: on now. But I said this when they were considering
Speaker 1: who to hire, and it was between him and Mike McCarthy. Now,
Speaker 1: to Mike McCarthy's absolute credit, he has gone into Dallas
Speaker 1: and he has said I'm not implementing my own system.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna trust what Kellen Moore is doing and I'm
Speaker 1: leaving that there. That's to his credit, But I knew
Speaker 1: if they signed McCarthy, that's like a four year higher minimum. Right,
Speaker 1: he can't tank for a year or two and you
Speaker 1: can be like on with Gas. I was like, okay, fine,
Speaker 1: try it with Gaye. See what happens. He brought the
Speaker 1: Dolphins to the playoffs that one time. If he's terrible,
Speaker 1: you can ditch him after a year and a half,
Speaker 1: which is exactly what they're gonna do, right, I mean
Speaker 1: if he maybe he survives this season, but he's not
Speaker 1: gonna be the coach of the Jets next season.
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I agree, he's fine.
Speaker 1: Letting him burn this whole thing to the ground. I
Speaker 1: do like Darnold. I'm a low bullshanam. I think he's
Speaker 1: been put in a tough situation for a long time,
Speaker 1: but hopefully he can at least show some promise with
Speaker 1: the ofvinsive line. All right, let's move to the north here.
Speaker 1: Raven's over under eleven and a half even on the
Speaker 1: over minus one of six on the ender Steelers over
Speaker 1: under nine. Both sides are even. Brown's over under eight
Speaker 1: and a half juice to over a bit mice one
Speaker 1: twenty five even on the under, and the Bengals over
Speaker 1: under five and a half over is minus one thirty
Speaker 1: four under at plus one ten. So who do you
Speaker 1: like in the North?
Speaker 3: Look, I understand that people think that Zach Taylor is
Speaker 3: going to be a good coach, But I covered Zach
Speaker 3: Taylor at Nebraska. He's a very smart dude. Dad's a
Speaker 3: coach football mind, not a head coach. Not right now,
Speaker 3: too young, too much, too early, and now you're giving
Speaker 3: him a quarterback he has.
Speaker 2: To play in Joe Burrow? Who I like?
Speaker 3: Who will be a good quarterback down the road? I'm
Speaker 3: on the under five and a half wins with the Bengals.
Speaker 3: I think they're going to be terrible. I mean, you
Speaker 3: can't work the way you normally would work with a rookie,
Speaker 3: and you still have the number one pick, so you
Speaker 3: have to play the number one pick, and you must
Speaker 3: put him in a position against NFL defenses where he
Speaker 3: must read defenses.
Speaker 2: I think this is going to be a bad year
Speaker 2: for the Bengals. I don't know.
Speaker 3: In that division, playing the Steelers and the Ravens, I mean,
Speaker 3: where are the wins coming for that team? I just
Speaker 3: I don't think. I think everyone's expecting Joe Burrow to
Speaker 3: be lsu Joe Burrow, and I don't see it. I
Speaker 3: don't think it's going to happen. I'm on the under
Speaker 3: for the Bengals.
Speaker 1: I can see four games, right, four games kind of
Speaker 1: hit me. The Redskins, the Jaguars, Oh not the Redskins, sorry,
Speaker 1: the Washington football Sorry, my mistake. The Washington football team,
Speaker 1: the Jaguars, the Dolphins, and the Giants. I don't really
Speaker 1: know what else they do to get some wins there.
Speaker 1: It's not a good team now, you know, especially this year.
Speaker 1: This is a year where when you don't have the
Speaker 1: preseason games, right, you got a rookie quarterback coming in
Speaker 1: learning it. It's really tough. It is really really tough.
Speaker 1: They have, you know, getting Jonah Williams back is going
Speaker 1: to help the offensive line. They spend a lot of
Speaker 1: money on their defense coming in. But again, this is
Speaker 1: a this is a just a terrible division for them
Speaker 1: to be playing in because you have at least two
Speaker 1: really strong teams, maybe a third with the Browns. So yeah,
Speaker 1: I like it out of curiosity because I do have
Speaker 1: leans on each of the other one. The Bengals, I
Speaker 1: lean under, but it's not one all right, let's go
Speaker 1: one by one. Ravens over under eleven and a half.
Speaker 1: How do you feel about it.
Speaker 3: Look, I think because of the continuity that the Ravens have,
Speaker 3: you play the over there. But it's so steep. I mean,
Speaker 3: it's just so tough. I mean twelve games, I mean,
Speaker 3: could I see them go eleven and five? Absolutely? I
Speaker 3: just think when you have you know, hardball, and you
Speaker 3: have the reigning MVP, and you've got that running game
Speaker 3: and they got deeper at running back in the draft,
Speaker 3: that's a really scary team to go up against. I mean,
Speaker 3: they're gonna in particular in this given pandemic year, the
Speaker 3: Ravens are really scary to bet the under there, So
Speaker 3: it's a no play, but I would go over if
Speaker 3: I had to.
Speaker 1: I'm okay to go over on This was just crazy
Speaker 1: because you're like, great, I'm betting on this team to
Speaker 1: win twelve ons. They obviously had four team last year.
Speaker 1: But yeah, like you said, they got better everywhere pretty much.
Speaker 1: They addressed their deficiencies even that they had their devents.
Speaker 1: I think their defense is going to be even better.
Speaker 1: And you mentioned it as the continuity. There are four
Speaker 1: teams in the AFC who have the same head coach,
Speaker 1: the same offensive coordinator, the same quarterback, the same top
Speaker 1: two wide receivers, the Ravens are one of them. It's
Speaker 1: a team. Look, even if you know Jackson got injured,
Speaker 1: like you know obviously you know you don't you're not
Speaker 1: excited about Robert Griffin the third, but he could run
Speaker 1: that offense pretty well in terms of knowing exactly how
Speaker 1: to do these the same style of quarterbacks. So I
Speaker 1: just think in the end there would be something where
Speaker 1: I'd be willing to go. How do you feel about
Speaker 1: the Steelers at over under nine?
Speaker 3: You know, it's interesting because the receiving corps, you know,
Speaker 3: they had a couple of guys last year didn't perform
Speaker 3: because of the injury with Ben Roethlisberger that they thought
Speaker 3: would step up and be bigger weapons inside that offense.
Speaker 2: And you look at the running game and you know
Speaker 2: the defense.
Speaker 3: I really have a tough time with this team because
Speaker 3: if Roethlisberger comes back in plays at you know, vintage Ben.
Speaker 2: Roethlisberger, they could be really difficult to go up against.
Speaker 3: It's just I don't know what Ben's got left in
Speaker 3: the tank, and I don't know about the arm. I mean,
Speaker 3: the arm was pretty serious. That injury was pretty serious
Speaker 3: to him. So I'm staying away until I see what
Speaker 3: Ben Roethlisberger looks like. I guess if I had to
Speaker 3: bet it, i'd bet the under to have them go
Speaker 3: eight to eight.
Speaker 2: But I don't.
Speaker 3: I really that's a until we see Roethlisberger, I've got
Speaker 3: no clue what that team's gonna look like.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they went eight and eight last year. Man,
Speaker 1: I mean, and you and I could have been playing
Speaker 1: quarterback and probably would have been just fine. So I
Speaker 1: agree this is one where I would love to be
Speaker 1: able to see a preseason game, right. I would love
Speaker 1: to be able to see what it looks like when
Speaker 1: Roethlisberger throws the football. But I don't know, man. I'm
Speaker 1: with that defense, strong offensive line again, continuity, right. Other
Speaker 1: than the fact that Roethlisberger only started the one game
Speaker 1: last year, it really is something where this is a
Speaker 1: team where I think they could really make some noise
Speaker 1: if Roethlisberger he doesn't have to be what he was,
Speaker 1: And my guess is they are not going to be
Speaker 1: this team that throws it a million times and airs
Speaker 1: it out like crazy quite as much because, yeah, that
Speaker 1: elbow injury, that's a serious injury. But you know, Connor
Speaker 1: is great in the passing game too. You can see dumpoffs.
Speaker 1: I think, you know, Juju Smith Schuster. People are kind
Speaker 1: of like, oh, I don't know, last year, throwout last year.
Speaker 1: You know, I really like Deanta Johnson. He's a great
Speaker 1: route runner, and James Washington there. I kind of like
Speaker 1: the addition of Eric Ebron. He's not my favorite tight end,
Speaker 1: but I do think that adds a little dimension. And
Speaker 1: they still events McDonald so again, strong defense. That's a
Speaker 1: team that I kind of like to go over the
Speaker 1: nine wins. I don't love it, but I lean that way.
Speaker 1: And I do want to touch on the Browns eight
Speaker 1: and a half because people are excited about the Browns
Speaker 1: right now and not as excited as they were last year.
Speaker 1: But you know, obviously Kevin Stefanski coming in, he's a
Speaker 1: first year head coach, but he ran the offense in
Speaker 1: Minnesota last year, and you know it works the type
Speaker 1: of things he's going to do for Mayfield. They've rebuilt
Speaker 1: the offensive line a bit, They're going to be a
Speaker 1: lot of play action passes. They've got a lot of
Speaker 1: good things going on. Are you in on over on
Speaker 1: the eight and a half of the Browns?
Speaker 3: I would bet the over if I had to, it's
Speaker 3: a no play because of the fact that there's a
Speaker 3: brand new coaching staff and it's Mayfield's third new offense
Speaker 3: right already. Yeah, him coming in third new head coach.
Speaker 3: So I mean this is really a lot of turnover.
Speaker 3: It's a lot of changes for a young quarterback who
Speaker 3: has to prove it this year. I mean, he's got
Speaker 3: a lot of attention on him because well, he likes
Speaker 3: the attention, but also because of how badly things went
Speaker 3: last year for them. So I mean Obj is going
Speaker 3: to have a big year. I really do think he's
Speaker 3: going to step out and really show out and play well.
Speaker 3: I think the addition of an offensive minded coach to
Speaker 3: be the head coach is really going to work better.
Speaker 3: I think a guy who's got more respect in the
Speaker 3: locker room also, I think will work out better. The
Speaker 3: defensive line for the brown They've invested so much draft
Speaker 3: capital on that defensive line. Those guys have got to
Speaker 3: play better. They've got to be the leader of that
Speaker 3: defense and really reek havoc this year. And they might
Speaker 3: be able to do that given the fact that teams
Speaker 3: aren't able to practice. So I'm expecting the Browns to
Speaker 3: be better. But it's mayfield and injuries and the division, right,
Speaker 3: I mean, you're playing the Browns, You're playing the Steelers twice,
Speaker 3: in the Ravens twice, so that's that's difficult, and you
Speaker 3: could go technically zero to four in those games and
Speaker 3: really put your bet in jeopardy with the road games
Speaker 3: and the other non division games that they've got. So
Speaker 3: I would bet the over, but I'm not. I wouldn't
Speaker 3: do it just because I'm I'm concerned about a new
Speaker 3: head coach coming in and not having his system in place.
Speaker 1: Yeah, again, it's a lean over for me. I'm not
Speaker 1: super excited about it. And obviously they're already dealing with
Speaker 1: a pretty big injury in their secondary with Greedy Williams.
Speaker 1: So it is something though, where you know, I'm I'm
Speaker 1: I was optimistic lass Yard. I was kind of buying
Speaker 1: into it, and obviously it was a complete disaster. I
Speaker 1: like the addition of Austin Hooper too. I don't think
Speaker 1: Hooper is really an elite tight end athletically at the
Speaker 1: very least, but I think adding him within Joker, you
Speaker 1: know they're gonna run a lot of two tight end sets,
Speaker 1: So I do think that the offense is going to
Speaker 1: be pretty efficient and it's gonna suit Baker well. If
Speaker 1: again he can everybody can focus, and they can get
Speaker 1: off to a good start again. It's one of these
Speaker 1: teams where if you get off to a bad start
Speaker 1: like last year, things could just go south really quickly.
Speaker 1: So I think getting off to a fast start is
Speaker 1: important for them. Let's go into the south here. This
Speaker 1: is an interesting division. Colts over under nine just toward
Speaker 1: the over minus one seventeen even on the under, Titans
Speaker 1: over under eight and a half over is minus one
Speaker 1: thirty plus one oh seven on the under, Texans over
Speaker 1: under seven and a half, minus one oh six on
Speaker 1: the over, minus one fifteen on the under, and the
Speaker 1: Jaguars over under four and a half, minus one thirty
Speaker 1: on the over even on the ender. What do you
Speaker 1: think here?
Speaker 2: All right?
Speaker 3: I think you and I might be on the same
Speaker 3: page here because this was another Daily Juice gave a
Speaker 3: couple of weeks ago. I love the Titans here and
Speaker 3: the Titans over eight and a half wins. I just
Speaker 3: think this is a team that, after they got the
Speaker 3: taste of it last year, going on a deep playoff run.
Speaker 3: I think Henry getting his new contract is big. He
Speaker 3: wants to out there and prove it. I like the
Speaker 3: receiving corps a lot. The defense is Stiller and Mike
Speaker 3: Vrabel I think is coming into his own.
Speaker 2: He might be the.
Speaker 3: Best Patriot Tree Belichick Tree disciple. And he didn't coach
Speaker 3: at a Belichick he played under him, which is the
Speaker 3: big difference between him and everybody else that's come through
Speaker 3: the Belichick tree in the Belichick regime.
Speaker 2: If you will. In New England, I am bullish on
Speaker 2: the Titans this year.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I like him too.
Speaker 2: I do.
Speaker 1: And again, this is one of these teams where you've
Speaker 1: got continuity, and that is a huge thing coming in.
Speaker 1: Same head coach, offensive coordinator, quarterback, wide receiver one, wide
Speaker 1: receiver two. I love AJ Brown. I really let you know.
Speaker 1: We do fantasy obviously, so AJ Brown is one of
Speaker 1: my guys. Another guy that we work with loves John
Speaker 1: new Smith, who I agree. He's very athletic, talented. They
Speaker 1: made Henry happy. He's going to be able, you know
Speaker 1: with the deal, they're going to run it. I like
Speaker 1: Ryan Tannell, you know, is he going to be as
Speaker 1: efficient as he was last year? No, because you can't
Speaker 1: possibly be that efficient as he was last year. But
Speaker 1: he's a very solid NFL quarterback, can do what they
Speaker 1: want to do. So I do like them a lot,
Speaker 1: especially at eight and a half now. The Colts were
Speaker 1: at eight and a half earlier in the offseason. I
Speaker 1: like that. What do you think about the Colts because
Speaker 1: I'm I'm pretty bullish on the Colts prospects this here
Speaker 1: as well.
Speaker 2: So yeah, all right, so look at you.
Speaker 3: You're bringing in Philip Rivers to come in to replace
Speaker 3: a quarterback that Jacoby Brissett was they thought was going
Speaker 3: to be the answer, and he turned out to be
Speaker 3: not the answer. He was good in the beginning and
Speaker 3: then not very good at the end. So they bring
Speaker 3: in a guy who has one or two years left.
Speaker 3: But Rivers is going to play because he wants to
Speaker 3: keep going and he wants to prove he's got a
Speaker 3: lot left in the tank. It's much similar to Brady
Speaker 3: and where Brady is in terms of okay, it's a
Speaker 3: proven year, right, Okay, how good were you? He? I mean,
Speaker 3: Rivers has a Hall of Fame career, He's got a
Speaker 3: Hall of Fame resume, but he doesn't have that championship
Speaker 3: on his finger and he wants it desperately. This is
Speaker 3: a team with an insane offensive line, a very good
Speaker 3: running game, a good receiving corps, and I mean, you
Speaker 3: look at some of the games. The Colts are very
Speaker 3: fun team to bet on every week because they do
Speaker 3: a great job of covering the spread. They're very good
Speaker 3: against the spread. And this is supposed to be Andrew
Speaker 3: Luck's team, so it was built for a passing quarterback
Speaker 3: like Philip Rivers, and the defense took a couple of
Speaker 3: nine steps forward last year. I love the coaching staff.
Speaker 3: The continuity is there from the coaching staff perspective, even
Speaker 3: though it's a new team, a new quarterback for this team.
Speaker 3: But I mean, if I had to bet it, I
Speaker 3: would bet the over. And I can't wait to watch
Speaker 3: these Titans and Colts games because I think the Texans
Speaker 3: are in trouble and I think these two teams are
Speaker 3: going to do war this year for this division.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love the Colts. I really did I have
Speaker 1: all off season. I very much. You know, we joked
Speaker 1: about it a lot over on the fantasy prost side
Speaker 1: about what does Rivers have left? I'm firmly I don't
Speaker 1: think that mid year came last year and he just
Speaker 1: suddenly fell apart. It does happen. You saw Peyton Manning
Speaker 1: obviously fall apart towards the end of his second to
Speaker 1: last year, and then he just rolled right in and
Speaker 1: was terrible for his final year. I don't think that's Rivers.
Speaker 1: I think it was the offensive line. I've mentioned it before.
Speaker 1: He was just getting bruised and battered. He can't escape
Speaker 1: from anybody because the guy can barely move. The offensive
Speaker 1: line is just it's built for him. What they are,
Speaker 1: the offensive line they have. You know, I love Jonathan
Speaker 1: Taylor and again Marlon Mack. He's a quality back. They
Speaker 1: still have Naim Hines. You know how Rivers likes to
Speaker 1: pass to the running backs. I like their receiving core.
Speaker 1: I like adding Michael Pittman Junr a lot. You know,
Speaker 1: you've got that Mike Williams big receiver that you can
Speaker 1: sort of use.
Speaker 2: I'm real.
Speaker 1: I'm a fan of Paris Campbell as well. Like I realized,
Speaker 1: he's already kind of dealing with injury, but I think
Speaker 1: this could be a big year for him. I like
Speaker 1: Uy Hilton everything about them. They traded for the Forest
Speaker 1: Buckner Rivers. There's no preseason games. Rivers is familiar with
Speaker 1: the system right because Nick Sirianni and Frank Reich, He's
Speaker 1: played under them. He knows that this is a team
Speaker 1: that I really really like. So I think I leaned.
Speaker 1: I mean ten wins is a big number, like that
Speaker 1: is something that I think casual betters don't really think
Speaker 1: about that much. They're like, oh yeah, sure, ten wins,
Speaker 1: Like a lot of things have to go right for
Speaker 1: you to getst ten wins necessarily, but I do.
Speaker 2: I'm really I like you.
Speaker 1: I'm excited to see the cults on the time.
Speaker 3: Well the running game too. I mean, I mean, I
Speaker 3: think through the draft they added talent. I mean I
Speaker 3: just think early they may not need much at a
Speaker 3: Rivers right just to turn the ball over, just you know,
Speaker 3: pick up third and sixes and let you know, get
Speaker 3: get to get the team in the right play, you know,
Speaker 3: be able to recognize defenses, which you know he can do,
Speaker 3: you know, switch into running plays and find the gaps
Speaker 3: and find the place to put the football with you know,
Speaker 3: your talented offensive line. I just think that that's why
Speaker 3: early they could get off to a very quick start,
Speaker 3: a very good stot because of their running game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not the greatest schedule that they have. I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't really think anybody in the South has it,
Speaker 1: But yeah, I really think they can go to toe
Speaker 1: to toe with anyone. They're not as good as the Ravens,
Speaker 1: They're not as good as the Chiefs, but really other
Speaker 1: than that, especially again, Taylor is going to be an
Speaker 1: absolute monster. I mean, I don't know when that's gonna
Speaker 1: happen this year, but by the end of the year
Speaker 1: running behind that offensive line.
Speaker 2: Do you like him Rookie of the Year?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think I do. It's either him
Speaker 1: or you know, Clyde Edwards Hilaire, who's now got the
Speaker 1: clear road to go in Kansas City because of Damian
Speaker 1: Williams opting out. But yeah, I don't know, man, I
Speaker 1: think in the beginning, I think what could hold him
Speaker 1: back is at in the beginning, I do think that
Speaker 1: Marlon Mack is going to factor in more than people realize.
Speaker 1: Now there are these reports going out and be like, oh,
Speaker 1: he looks really good in camp and stuff like that.
Speaker 1: I always thought that's what was.
Speaker 2: Going to be.
Speaker 1: You're not going to turn it over immediately, You're just
Speaker 1: not now with no preseason games. But I do think
Speaker 1: that by the end of the year, Taylor is going
Speaker 1: to be an absolute monster. I have futures on Kishan
Speaker 1: Vaughn winning Rookie of the Year, so I think those
Speaker 1: are not no, not nice. That's not gonna work out
Speaker 1: for us. I don't think giving the Bucks and given
Speaker 1: how Rojo is looking, you mentioned the Texans, the Texans
Speaker 1: to me are a team. I always think that Texans
Speaker 1: should go under and then they somehow managed to sort
Speaker 1: of pull it out. Are you on the under here
Speaker 1: on seven and a half or.
Speaker 3: Yeah, if I had to be, I mean, look at
Speaker 3: so you have a quarterback and head coach Continuity's standpoint, right,
Speaker 3: But I think there's some real problems inside that locker room.
Speaker 3: And Bill O'Brien, he's from my hometown, so I always
Speaker 3: preference this because I hate crapping on the guy, so
Speaker 3: I want him to do well, and I've followed him
Speaker 3: for years, whether it be with the quarterback coach of
Speaker 3: the Patriots and now head coach of the of the
Speaker 3: Houston Texans. I just think the move to get rid
Speaker 3: of Nuke Edwards Newtonuk Hopkins was a huge mistake, and
Speaker 3: I just think you don't trade away a DeAndre Hopkins ever,
Speaker 3: and you are. You have a quarterback that wants a
Speaker 3: new contract who's watching everyone else get paid, and he
Speaker 3: wants to get paid, and there's questions as to whether
Speaker 3: or not your coach, slash GM wants to pay him.
Speaker 3: And I think that's a huge issue and a huge problem.
Speaker 3: I just think JJ Watt getting hurt too consistently. You know,
Speaker 3: every year he's getting banged up. He's getting older as well.
Speaker 3: I don't like the Texans this year at all.
Speaker 1: Neither do I. And it's gonna really piss me off
Speaker 1: when they go ten and six and win the division.
Speaker 3: It happened, right, It's not happened. Not going ten and six.
Speaker 3: They're not going to be in this division. They're not
Speaker 3: good enough to contend with both the Texans, the Titans
Speaker 3: or the Cult.
Speaker 2: So right there, that's why they're not going ten and six.
Speaker 1: And tell you right now, I completely believe you, and
Speaker 1: I think that every year that's some other good out
Speaker 1: of curiosity. Four and a half a ridiculous number for
Speaker 1: the Jaguars under or over if you had to go, If.
Speaker 3: I had to go, I'd go over just because it's
Speaker 3: you never know. It's pro football, so it's it's hard
Speaker 3: to go, you know, four and twelve. But I mean
Speaker 3: I wouldn't bet it. I mean, who's their quarterback? You know,
Speaker 3: is Ardner Minshew actually a good quarterback or not?
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I like him, I'll be honest. I kind of like him.
Speaker 1: I really do. And not just because he dresses like
Speaker 1: the way I feel inside, you know what I mean?
Speaker 1: I really I do like him. Again, he was quietly quality.
Speaker 1: What I like about him again, really really good on
Speaker 1: deep passing. He was the best deep passer, even though
Speaker 1: he doesn't have that strong of an army. He was
Speaker 1: the best deep passer in the NFL last year, the best.
Speaker 1: He had the best passer rating on passes that traveled
Speaker 1: over twenty yards. And I like, you know, he can
Speaker 1: he can extend plays with his leg. I'm not saying
Speaker 1: I would hitch my wagon, you know, to him for
Speaker 1: the rest of my franchise, but in terms of what
Speaker 1: he's able to do. And that's one of the reasons
Speaker 1: why I think I lean towards the over. Maybe I
Speaker 1: don't like their defense, but I do think that their
Speaker 1: offense is going to be fairly capable under minshe you.
Speaker 3: Know, yeah, run the ball more hopefully. I mean I
Speaker 3: hate the coaching staff. I just I just think that
Speaker 3: there's so many issues there. And you know, did they
Speaker 3: three years ago? That team was tremendous. I mean, there
Speaker 3: was just so many talented guys on that roster when
Speaker 3: we thought the Jaguars finally were going to make some
Speaker 3: real noise, and then just you know, so many players
Speaker 3: were either cut or let go or got hurt. So
Speaker 3: it's tough to be a Jaguar fan. And I still
Speaker 3: think that one day that team's playing in London. So
Speaker 3: you know, if I had to bet it, i'd bet
Speaker 3: the over, just because it's hard to go four and twelve.
Speaker 1: And again the Dolphins, the Bengals, the Lions, the Bears,
Speaker 1: they're winnable games there right for them. So and it's
Speaker 1: the NFL, like you said, above them all right, let's
Speaker 1: hit our last division here. The Chiefs over under eleven
Speaker 1: and a half over at minus one thirty even on
Speaker 1: the under. The Broncos are over under seven and a
Speaker 1: half minus one twenty five on the over, even on
Speaker 1: the under, Chargers over under eight minus one twenty five
Speaker 1: on the over, even on the under, and the Raiders
Speaker 1: over under seven even on the over minus one oh
Speaker 1: six on the under. So you made one of the
Speaker 1: easier futures play I believe in like an early episode
Speaker 1: of The Juice. But you like the Raiders, is that right?
Speaker 3: I like the Raiders over seven wins. And after I
Speaker 3: made that bet, I was talking to a sports book
Speaker 3: friend of mine and I said, so, how do I feel, like?
Speaker 3: How do you feel about me betting on the Raiders over?
Speaker 3: And he said, what you and the rest of the town.
Speaker 3: He said, oh really, he said, put it this way.
Speaker 3: As of August the first, there was one book here
Speaker 3: in Vegas who had not taken a single under bet
Speaker 3: on the Raiders for their win total. Every single bet
Speaker 3: was on the over. So when you're running with the
Speaker 3: masses like that, I can't stand it, but I'm not
Speaker 3: going to back off of it. Look, I think this
Speaker 3: is a big year for Derek Carr. This is a
Speaker 3: chance for him to show he can play inside of
Speaker 3: this offense. Henry Ruggs is coming in. You have a
Speaker 3: guy who could take the top off the defense. Running
Speaker 3: game with Josh Jacobs is tremendous, maybe the best offensive
Speaker 3: line in football. They've got a defense that needs to
Speaker 3: step up and play better. But I think this is
Speaker 3: a team that is poised with the talent. Look, Mike
Speaker 3: Mayock is on a very good job drafting the last
Speaker 3: two years. You can hate on the guy and not
Speaker 3: like him. I'm a big fan. I think he's done
Speaker 3: a great job. You could hate on Gruden, fine, but
Speaker 3: this team just to go eight and eight. Yeah, I'm
Speaker 3: going over Raiders eight and eight.
Speaker 1: I mean, I can't get there like I'm not going
Speaker 1: under because I don't necessarily think they're going to win six.
Speaker 1: But you know, this is a you know, we Tyra
Speaker 1: Williams is not as if he was a dominant person,
Speaker 1: but he's already dealing with the labor impair. I like
Speaker 1: Hunter Renfro, but again, you've got rookies coming in. Rugs
Speaker 1: Is are the type of rookie rookie wide receivers, by
Speaker 1: the way, are they make me particularly nervous as to
Speaker 1: how they're going to be able to divorce in this
Speaker 1: environment right, especially because you just don't have time. Ruggs
Speaker 1: is the one guy of all the rookie receivers that
Speaker 1: I don't really worry about, just because again, you can
Speaker 1: be like, hey, here's what we're going to do. Run
Speaker 1: a five yard slant and then just go to the house.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: You scort a touchdown on a quarter of his receptions
Speaker 1: in college, so he is there. But you know, this
Speaker 1: is a tough division man and their schedule. It's not
Speaker 1: that great. It's just something where, Yeah, I don't really
Speaker 1: love him. Is there anybody in the West then who
Speaker 1: you think is not going to be as good as expected?
Speaker 2: Then?
Speaker 1: Do you like the unders on any of the teams?
Speaker 3: You know, I'm seeing more and more hype on the Broncos,
Speaker 3: and I understand that the Broncos have drafted, but like
Speaker 3: you mentioned about rookie wide receivers, you know, I think
Speaker 3: the Broncos eventually might be really good. Yeah, but how
Speaker 3: good is Drew Locke and you're asking him to play
Speaker 3: with a bunch of guys he hasn't had a chance
Speaker 3: to play in.
Speaker 2: A real game with right out of the gate. Yep,
Speaker 2: So that's my worry.
Speaker 3: On everyone's like, oh, Broncos over, Broncos over, and look
Speaker 3: at the defense and von Miller and Bubble.
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know.
Speaker 3: I mean, to me, I would lean under on the
Speaker 3: Broncos simply because you have to ask. You're asking Drew
Speaker 3: Locke to get to know these guys very fast and
Speaker 3: to be able to get on the same plan.
Speaker 2: Noah faint.
Speaker 3: I know there's some guys up there who put up
Speaker 3: some big numbers and they got some guys coming back.
Speaker 3: But I just I'm curious about continuity for that offense
Speaker 3: and if you need that offense to score a bunch
Speaker 3: of points, which you're going to if look at the
Speaker 3: offense with the division, with the Chargers, Chiefs and the Raiders,
Speaker 3: you got to score to be in contention in this division.
Speaker 3: I just I don't think the I don't think the
Speaker 3: Broncos are there yet. I mean eventually if Lock's the
Speaker 3: guy the next year, but I would go under this year.
Speaker 1: Could not agree more. It's not something where I'm running
Speaker 1: out to be like, oh, give me the give me
Speaker 1: the under on the Broncos because they could easily surprise.
Speaker 1: Their defense is legitimate. I love Jerry Judy, I really do.
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna have an incredibly bright future and
Speaker 1: he could be great this year. It is Lock for me,
Speaker 1: and I don't want to say that he'll never develop
Speaker 1: into you know, Areas only won four and one last year.
Speaker 1: I mean, he didn't do anything to really get there.
Speaker 1: I was not impressed with them. And again continuity. It's
Speaker 1: a new offensive coordinator coming in here, right with Pat Trummer.
Speaker 1: You've you've got a new system. You've got rookie wide
Speaker 1: receivers that are already dealing with an injury to Hamdler.
Speaker 1: Melvin Gordon. Fine, but their running game was you know,
Speaker 1: I don't know, it's I'm not Melvin Gordon doesn't move
Speaker 1: the needle for me. And obviously, you know, when you're
Speaker 1: talking over unders, you don't really care that much about
Speaker 1: running backs. That's not really what does it? But you know,
Speaker 1: to me, I don't know, man, I'm not buying this either.
Speaker 1: It's just not a team that I really want to
Speaker 1: invest in. What about the Chargers though, because the Chargers
Speaker 1: are an interesting team to me? I love their defense.
Speaker 1: I think to Rod Taylor, not a great quarterback, but
Speaker 1: certainly more than capable twenty two and twenty as a starter.
Speaker 1: They're gonna have a good running game with Austin Eckler.
Speaker 1: They've got they drafted Kelly, they've got Jackson. Their receivers
Speaker 1: still are there with you know, Mike Williams now dealing
Speaker 1: with an injury. But Keenan Allen got Hunter Henry is
Speaker 1: a good head end. I think they're gonna be able
Speaker 1: to play conservatively, lean on their defense, lean on their
Speaker 1: run game. Get enough there. I kind of like the
Speaker 1: Chargers going over the eight wins. What are you think?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 3: If you could tell me the Chargers stay healthy, I'll
Speaker 3: buy it. This team can't stay healthy. I mean they
Speaker 3: get hurt every year. They have catastrophic injuries, massive injuries.
Speaker 3: I just every time I feel like I'm backing the Chargers,
Speaker 3: they something really horrible happens and they lose a player,
Speaker 3: or they lose the you know, a quarterback or starting
Speaker 3: left tackle or you know, strong safety.
Speaker 2: It's just it's really.
Speaker 1: An amazing Like, Well, I like the Chargers, but the
Speaker 1: Chargers are an injury team. So you're gonna have seventy injuries.
Speaker 3: So I mean, so I can't bet the over because
Speaker 3: I don't trust it. I mean I would lean towards
Speaker 3: the over, but they've got the talent Tyrod. I mean,
Speaker 3: here's the other question. How many games is Tyrod Taylor
Speaker 3: playing this year? Because if they lose Herbert, there's gonna
Speaker 3: be a lot of pressure to play Herbert. So I
Speaker 3: don't know in terms of like if you're zero and
Speaker 3: four to start hypothetically, like just say the awful start, Well,
Speaker 3: then why are you playing Tyrod Taylor? Just play Herbert?
Speaker 3: I mean the year's lost anyway. Just give him a
Speaker 3: year to get ready, to get used to playing NFL football,
Speaker 3: and then have him good to go for next year
Speaker 3: when there's fans and stands and whatnot. So, I mean
Speaker 3: it's interesting watching hard knocks and watching how how tough
Speaker 3: of a time he's having adapting to the NFL and
Speaker 3: taking you know, snaps under center, and the fact that
Speaker 3: he can't his cadence is wrong, like right, getting scolded
Speaker 3: about not being able to hike the football. Right, He's
Speaker 3: a little scary for a guy with a first round pick.
Speaker 3: But I don't know how long that job is going
Speaker 3: to be Tyrod Taylor's. So that's why I'm also a
Speaker 3: little afraid of betting the over.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I honestly I think he starts the whole year.
Speaker 1: I mean, yes, you are correct. If he starts owing four,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't think they're going to If he
Speaker 1: starts owned four, then maybe you could see it. But
Speaker 1: I think I think, really, it's just not a good
Speaker 1: idea to throw a guy or whatever you know, the
Speaker 1: team is doing for that year, to throw him into
Speaker 1: an NFL team when he's not ready to go. And
Speaker 1: I think that Herbert is not ready to go. I
Speaker 1: don't think he's going to be ready to go by
Speaker 1: week five. I don't think he's going to be ready
Speaker 1: to go by week eight.
Speaker 2: I know he's a project, right.
Speaker 1: He's a project. So let him sit on the on
Speaker 1: the bench for a year and learn. And yeah, obviously
Speaker 1: if they get injured like they do every year, of course,
Speaker 1: like what are you gonna do about that? They got
Speaker 1: a lot of winnable games. And remember, even with how
Speaker 1: bad they were last year, even with how bad Philip
Speaker 1: Rivers played, very easily could have had a decent year
Speaker 1: if they just flipped the script a little bit on
Speaker 1: the one score games. Right, they just lost tons of
Speaker 1: one score games. So you know, to me, with that defense,
Speaker 1: you know you've got botha and you've got Ingram Lamal Joseph.
Speaker 1: You know, yeah, right now, I think to Rod, Teller
Speaker 1: is going to start the whole year, and I think
Speaker 1: that in the end they're going to be a pretty
Speaker 1: decent team, so I kind of like them. Well, on
Speaker 1: the over, I do get the concern.
Speaker 3: Noow, your point about losing one score games is interesting
Speaker 3: because if you remember a couple of years ago, the
Speaker 3: Raiders won a bunch of one score games and that
Speaker 3: caused everyone to kind of hammer on the under the
Speaker 3: under for their winteral I think it was like seven
Speaker 3: and a half or eight and a half, and they
Speaker 3: didn't come in everything in six and ten because of
Speaker 3: all the one score games they had won the year before.
Speaker 3: And I think you can You're right. I think you
Speaker 3: go the other way here, where if you lose a
Speaker 3: bunch of one score games, just math, just odds, just
Speaker 3: you know the way sports work, that it evens out.
Speaker 3: And so next year, this coming year, they win a
Speaker 3: bunch of those games, they win a bunch of those games.
Speaker 3: Most likely they're sitting right behind the Chiefs and probably
Speaker 3: in a wildcard spot and playing in a wildcard game,
Speaker 3: and we'll see what happens with how they'll perform in
Speaker 3: the playoffs. But either it's Tyrod or some Herbert or whatnot.
Speaker 3: But right, I think this team. This is why I
Speaker 3: like Hard Knocks, because I wasn't sure about Anthony Lennon,
Speaker 3: and I wasn't sure if the team liked him all
Speaker 3: that much and wanted to play hard for him. And
Speaker 3: watching Hard Knocks really has changed my opinion about him
Speaker 3: in Los Angeles, and I do think that team is
Speaker 3: all in on him, and I do think if they're healthy,
Speaker 3: there'll be a team to watch.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I kind of like what they're doing. And again,
Speaker 1: remember they were losing those games. They weren't healthy, and
Speaker 1: they're never healthy, as you sort of mentioned. So now
Speaker 1: you combine health, you flip the script a little bit.
Speaker 1: I think they can get past hay Wins. Let's finish
Speaker 1: up with the Chiefs again, like the Ravens. Another big number,
Speaker 1: like the Ravens, another team that's just like, okay, you
Speaker 1: want continuity. I mean, the Chiefs are legitimately identical the
Speaker 1: last year, except that they've basically replaced Damian Williams with
Speaker 1: Clyde Edwards Hilaire. So eleven and a half. Is this
Speaker 1: one where you'd be like, if you are forcing me
Speaker 1: to bet, you'd go over or is this one if
Speaker 1: you'd you know, shyway, given.
Speaker 3: The number, look in the pandemic, they may go fifteen
Speaker 3: and one, right, I mean they might.
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't.
Speaker 3: This is I look at this team and I see
Speaker 3: the Patriots of two thousand and seven, and I just
Speaker 3: see an absolute offensive buzz saw that it doesn't really
Speaker 3: matter until the playoffs to expose some of their weaknesses.
Speaker 3: And I think there are weaknesses Like the seven Patriots,
Speaker 3: there were weaknesses on that defense, and there are weaknesses
Speaker 3: on that defense still for the Chiefs. And I do
Speaker 3: think they're going to be in salary cap jail very
Speaker 3: soon for all the big deals that they have done.
Speaker 3: And I do think that if there is a drop
Speaker 3: in the salary cap due to the COVID in the
Speaker 3: pandemic and they have to drop it down, that they'll
Speaker 3: be cutting or trading players. But for twenty twenty, they're
Speaker 3: the best team in football and it's not even a debate.
Speaker 3: And I don't really see you know, they may drop
Speaker 3: a game or two games, but yeah, they're going over
Speaker 3: that number in my mind.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean too, I don't think they've gone under
Speaker 1: their win total under Andy Reid. I think I saw
Speaker 1: that stat somewhere. I can't remember where it is whoever
Speaker 1: put it out, Sorry about that, But I think since
Speaker 1: Andy Reid got to the Chiefs. They've gone over their
Speaker 1: win total every year. I can't verify that, but I
Speaker 1: read that somewhere. Here's you know, for me, the one
Speaker 1: thing that we didn't talk about, by the way, with
Speaker 1: the Ravens and the Chiefs, there's one by this year, Matt, right,
Speaker 1: there's one playoff by you don't have the top two seats,
Speaker 1: right right, So if you've got the Ravens and you've
Speaker 1: got the Chiefs, even if they win their division, and
Speaker 1: even if they're cruising to the top two seats, they
Speaker 1: got to keep going, you know what I mean. They
Speaker 1: may be thirteen, you know, thirteen to two heading into
Speaker 1: that final week and be like, shoot, we don't have
Speaker 1: the buy right now, you know what I mean. They
Speaker 1: may be going full boar the entire year just to
Speaker 1: get that one locked up. So I think that's a
Speaker 1: little extra motivation when you're going. But I agree, I
Speaker 1: think it's over you know.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Look, I just think it's a team where they
Speaker 3: are doing things offensively. In bringing in Edwards Hilaire as
Speaker 3: well is going to be another addition, I mean, another
Speaker 3: step forward for that offense. Young guy with tons of
Speaker 3: tread on the tire and catch the football and a bowling
Speaker 3: ball to run through that offensive line. I just think
Speaker 3: that they are doing things right now that it's going
Speaker 3: to make it so difficult for teams to stop them.
Speaker 3: And look, Terry Kill's injury is a little scary, and
Speaker 3: I was going to recommend on betting pros. I need
Speaker 3: to see him if I can, like run a play
Speaker 3: a game because Week one, on Thursday Night against the Texans,
Speaker 3: the Chiefs are laying ten and I think they're going
Speaker 3: to destroy the Texans by like thirty.
Speaker 2: But to me, Tery Kill to be healthy in those games.
Speaker 3: But I think folks are going to be coming in
Speaker 3: and I think the sports books are going to need
Speaker 3: whoever the Chiefs are playing every single week this year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, absolutely, They're going to be an incredibly public team.
Speaker 1: And you know the thing is, again you saw sharing
Speaker 1: the playoffs. That was my favorite live betting experience, by
Speaker 1: the way, is when they fell behind the Texans and
Speaker 1: just waiting for both games. You knew, you knew what
Speaker 1: was going to happen in game. You're just no, no, no, no,
Speaker 1: wait for it, wait for it, wait for it. You
Speaker 1: knew the odds. Eventually we're going to go where you
Speaker 1: could sort of Fire one off and yeah, man, I
Speaker 1: don't know this. I gotta be honest by see you
Speaker 1: talk betting every day on the podcast and on your
Speaker 1: radio show. This is like my first chance to have
Speaker 1: really gotten into a discussion about it. This is again
Speaker 1: the juice is flowing, you know what I mean? We
Speaker 1: get two weeks from today, recording this on Thursday, two
Speaker 1: weeks from today opening night. I'm so excited.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Chiefs playing ten, Chiefs laying ten.
Speaker 1: Dude, come on, Tyreek, Hi'll be healthy so we could
Speaker 1: go all in on it. Thanks for coming on, man.
Speaker 1: I can't wait to talk about it more. Next week
Speaker 1: we'll talk about what we're gonna be doing in season,
Speaker 1: but for now, I really appreciate you joining me for
Speaker 1: this one and it was a good time. Man.
Speaker 2: Can't wait for next.
Speaker 1: Week, all right, don't forget to go head over to
Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com check out all our consensus lines, and
Speaker 1: do not forget to check out the Daily Juice podcast,
Speaker 1: hosted by Matt Parlt, who you heard here today. It
Speaker 1: is a really, really good listen. I would listen to
Speaker 1: it even if I didn't invent the concept and have
Speaker 1: to get that feedback it's really great. It's every single
Speaker 1: day and Matt, you know, offers a lot of insight.
Speaker 1: We will be back next week talking about the NFC
Speaker 1: and then man, we are talking about Week one, ready
Speaker 1: to go. We'll talk to them