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Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you

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Speaker 1: by Incognate. You know, one of the things we talk

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Speaker 1: I'm constantly working on this for years myself, and here's

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Speaker 1: an opportunity for you to take matters into your own

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Speaker 1: hands as well. Hello there, Happy Monday, and welcome to

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Speaker 1: another episode of the Chuck Podcast. So I'll be honest

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Speaker 1: with you, I'm coming on literally, I'm taping right now,

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Speaker 1: probably about thirty minutes after that incredible finish of Yukon

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Speaker 1: over Duke, just sort of out of nowhere. Just an

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Speaker 1: incredible back to back years for Duke with these choke jobs,

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Speaker 1: blowing the double digit lead against Houston in the final

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Speaker 1: four last year, blowing this nineteen point lead against u

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Speaker 1: Khon and the Elite eight, somebody's going to start getting

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Speaker 1: a reputation. But here's what I would say to mister Shier,

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Speaker 1: Coach Duke, go look at coach K's record in Elite

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Speaker 1: eights and final fours in the eighties, because they was

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Speaker 1: in the eighties, he was making all sorts of progress,

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Speaker 1: but he didn't break through the wall. Right. It wasn't

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Speaker 1: until the nineties that he broke through. And then of

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Speaker 1: course once he broke through, then it seemed like when

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Speaker 1: he'd get there, he'd be a winner. There's something about

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Speaker 1: Yukon though, right they are. They are a tough dragon

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Speaker 1: to slay, whether they're loaded with talent, whether they're missing

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Speaker 1: a few pieces that they seem off, you're not one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent sure. Well, one thing you know about these

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Speaker 1: Danny Hurley coach teams is they don't quit. But anyway,

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Speaker 1: what I mean, let's just be honest, that's why we

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Speaker 1: love this tournament. Right, you got to have one game.

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Speaker 1: These final these Ellegue eight games were all kind of blowout. Ye.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Iowa Illinois before this, before we got this,

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Speaker 1: and this one looked like it was going to be

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Speaker 1: the big blowout, and before we got this like Illinois

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Speaker 1: Iowa was about the best we got and that was

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Speaker 1: a game with about five minutes left and then Illinois

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Speaker 1: started pulling away. But this means I only got two

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Speaker 1: of the final four. Correct. I thought I was about

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Speaker 1: to have three of the final four. I went way

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Speaker 1: out on a limb and took three number one seeds

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Speaker 1: in my final four Duke Michigan in Arizona. So I

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Speaker 1: whipped on that had Houston, had Houston winning the whole thing,

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Speaker 1: So that was out. But I will tell you this,

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Speaker 1: I've met coach Underwood at Illinois, spent a little time

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Speaker 1: with him, spend a little time with that program. It is.

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Speaker 1: It is one of the schools that I've had some

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Speaker 1: family attend. So of the four schools Michigan, Arizona, Yukon,

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Speaker 1: and Illinois, my large extended family has the closest ties

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Speaker 1: to the Allian eye. So we will be despite the

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Speaker 1: fact that they have those horrible, that horrible pairing of

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Speaker 1: colors blue and orange, which you know, if you run

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Speaker 1: the state of Florida, it's really one of the tougher

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Speaker 1: color matches to deal with, right that blue and orange

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Speaker 1: is just a terrible color match. And again people in

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Speaker 1: the state of Florida. Understand that, especially blinding when you

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Speaker 1: have to go through Gainesville. It's terrible. But despite Illinois

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Speaker 1: sharing similar similar colors, I guess you could argue it's

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Speaker 1: a darker orange and a slightly darker blue. The toodcast

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Speaker 1: will be slightly pulling for the for Ellinois and they're

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Speaker 1: going to be technically the underdogs, right They're the Cinderella

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Speaker 1: story of the three seeds. So we did get the

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Speaker 1: chalky end of the tournament as we thought, But wow,

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Speaker 1: what a finish there. Before I get to my more

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Speaker 1: serious stuff here, I do want to gloat. I had

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Speaker 1: one wish for the start of the baseball season for

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Speaker 1: my beloved Washington Nationals. I really wanted Tom to win

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Speaker 1: Game one so I could guarantee that they would have

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Speaker 1: a winning record at some point this season. And what

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Speaker 1: do you know, they're two in one at the end

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Speaker 1: of the first weekend. They've won their first series against

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Speaker 1: a team that's supposed to be a contender for the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: I'll take it. And you know, apparently the most unhittable

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Speaker 1: player in baseball's Joey Weimer. And I'm not gonna tell

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Speaker 1: you I'd never heard of them. But I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to pretend to tell you I knew everything about this

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Speaker 1: guy when the Nats signed him in January off of

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Speaker 1: a waiver wires, So we'll take it. The Nats are

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Speaker 1: two and one. It feels good. If I were a

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Speaker 1: Cubs fan, I'm a little concerned to drop two of

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Speaker 1: three at home. The good news is they're arguably their

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Speaker 1: best young pitcher, Kate Horton pitched their best game on Saturday.

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Speaker 1: But you're going to be a little bit concerned. But hey,

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Speaker 1: it's baseball. It's early in the year. We know that.

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Speaker 1: So I'm just happy the Nats have a winning record

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Speaker 1: now they have put it this way. They've gone the

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Speaker 1: season is four days old and they have yet to

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Speaker 1: have a losing record. They were tied for first after

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Speaker 1: the game on Thursday, So look, these are the tiny,

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Speaker 1: tiniest little baby steps. We Nats fans. It's the only

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Speaker 1: thing we have to cling to. So we have that.

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Speaker 1: And I think I teased that I was this was

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Speaker 1: a big fantasy baseball draft weekend for me. I Am

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Speaker 1: not going to be that annoying guy and tell you

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Speaker 1: everything about my fantasy baseball team, because you know who

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Speaker 1: cares about my fantasy baseball team, not you guys. I'm

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Speaker 1: aware of that, and I'm not interested in having you

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Speaker 1: fast forward all the way through other than I one

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Speaker 1: was an auction and one was a snake draft. If

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Speaker 1: any of you care that much about it, you're welcome

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Speaker 1: to throw some questions at the back and maybe at

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Speaker 1: the end of some podcast. I'm happy to talk about it.

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Speaker 1: But it is. Here's what I always find out for

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Speaker 1: the fantasy draft. Every year, I find out, Oh my god,

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Speaker 1: I didn't do my homework. I didn't do enough. I

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Speaker 1: knew enough. Guy, I was running out of pitchers, especially

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Speaker 1: when you're in one league that has twenty four teams

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Speaker 1: and eighteen roster spots. Let me repeat twenty four teams

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Speaker 1: eighteen roster spots. All right, enough of that side of

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Speaker 1: my sports ledger. We will have my podcast time machine,

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Speaker 1: and we are going back to the year nineteen forty nine,

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Speaker 1: and let's just say it's the start of an organization

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Speaker 1: that is still very much in the news today. That

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Speaker 1: will be my big hint for you. But I want

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Speaker 1: to begin essentially with what look we ended the week.

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Speaker 1: I think when I last talked with you were it

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Speaker 1: was clear and I said, I said, well, they're going

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Speaker 1: to get something done with d HS. Well it was

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Speaker 1: not done the way I thought it was going to

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Speaker 1: get done. But we have TSA workers being paid, president

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Speaker 1: doing an executive order sort of finding finding other ways

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Speaker 1: to meet some payrolls temporarily. We had the Senate pass

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Speaker 1: a compromise and then the House Republicans completely rejected. And

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Speaker 1: I think it's a you know, this is a piece

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Speaker 1: of where I want to go with the larger point

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Speaker 1: I want to make with today's episode. It really is

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Speaker 1: about answering our question. I get a lot, and I

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Speaker 1: want to give you a fuller answer to when I

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Speaker 1: get this question a lot, which is you know when,

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Speaker 1: when when is this going to end? And when I when?

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Speaker 1: When I say this this sort of this moment of

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Speaker 1: polarization where everything is a knockdown, drag out fight. Everything

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Speaker 1: has to be a battle, you know, of the ages,

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Speaker 1: just to you know, decide how's TSA going to get

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Speaker 1: funded right and everything, And then you have these battles

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Speaker 1: inside the party between half the party that wants to

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Speaker 1: govern and half the party that wants to fight. And

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Speaker 1: you're starting to see this almost look like mirror images

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Speaker 1: of each other in each side. Right, you had those

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Speaker 1: that were getting exhausted and the Democratic side feeling as

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Speaker 1: if this shutdown they had gotten everything they could get

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Speaker 1: out of it. It was time to find a way

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Speaker 1: to land the plane. Pun intended on that one. But

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Speaker 1: then you saw a sort of similarity on the right

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Speaker 1: right where you saw plenty of center Republicans going, yeah,

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Speaker 1: let's land the plane, let's throw them a bone on this,

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Speaker 1: this and this, and then the President not enthusiastic about it,

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Speaker 1: and certainly Speaker Johnson and House Republicans going, you know what,

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Speaker 1: we're not playing ball with that. So you start to

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Speaker 1: see you've got and in many cases right the House

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Speaker 1: is home of the hardliners, the hardliners on the left

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Speaker 1: these days, hardliners on the right. And the Senate is

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Speaker 1: home of the compromisers, if I guess the Founders would

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Speaker 1: be happy to see that. But even within the Senate,

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Speaker 1: the compromisers are barely able to pull off compromises, and

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure how enthusiastic they all are. So it

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Speaker 1: gets it to this larger question than I want to

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Speaker 1: come back to, and it's the one I think that

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Speaker 1: matters more right now than any individual election result or

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Speaker 1: any poll number or any piece of legislation, and it's

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Speaker 1: simply this is the country ready to move on. It's

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Speaker 1: not just turning the page on Trump specifically, this is

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Speaker 1: not just about Trump or even trump Ism, Right, But

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Speaker 1: are we It's not about ready to move on from

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Speaker 1: one politician or a party, but are we ready to

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Speaker 1: move on from this? Right, this era of permanent, polarized

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Speaker 1: warfare politics that has defined arguably American life for the

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Speaker 1: better part of most of the century, right, two decades now.

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Speaker 1: I mean, in some ways it's fitting that this deck

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Speaker 1: that this century began with the two thousand election, where

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Speaker 1: we took the Supreme Court to decide when to stop

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Speaker 1: the count. Right, we're living in an era where the

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Speaker 1: other side isn't just wrong, they're it's existential, where every

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Speaker 1: election is the most important of our lifetime. Right, I've

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Speaker 1: never covered an election that wasn't the most important in

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Speaker 1: my lifetime. Apparently compromise is not only not a virtue

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Speaker 1: right now, it can be seen as a character flaw.

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Speaker 1: So let's go back to the question are we ready

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Speaker 1: to move on from this? Because I've been doing this

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Speaker 1: long enough to know that ready is an automatic. Societies

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Speaker 1: don't heal on a schedule, they heal, and the cost

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Speaker 1: of staying sick finally exceeds the cost of the cure.

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Speaker 1: And let's just say, I'm not sure we're there yet.

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Speaker 1: You know that doesn't you know? That doesn't mean we

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Speaker 1: may not have I And what I mean is, I

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Speaker 1: think we're a few more elections away from the electorate

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Speaker 1: demanding resolution to this. And I don't think the electorate

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Speaker 1: is just there. So here's the case I want to

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Speaker 1: make today, and I'm going to use some history to

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Speaker 1: do it, because I think the closest parallel to what

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Speaker 1: we're living through is a period most America know mostly

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Speaker 1: as a blur, and I think it's the most understudied

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Speaker 1: period in American history and one that all of us

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Speaker 1: should spend a little bit more time on. And I

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Speaker 1: think it can teach us a lot about the moment

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Speaker 1: we're in right now. And it's the twenty eight years

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Speaker 1: between two term president Andrew Jackson and twice elected he

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Speaker 1: obviously didn't serve his full second term, Abraham Lincoln. We

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Speaker 1: had seven presidents, actually we had eight presidents because one

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Speaker 1: took over via death, but seven president elected presidents. Okay,

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Speaker 1: in twenty eight years. It's just remarkable back and forth,

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Speaker 1: if you will, seven men who each saw the divide coming,

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Speaker 1: each reached for a tool to manage it, and each

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Speaker 1: watched that tool break in their hands. Right, we haven't

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Speaker 1: gone through seven of these presidencies yet, right, we got

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Speaker 1: push Obama Trump Biden Trump were at five. One could argue,

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Speaker 1: we've probably got a couple more to go. And that's

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Speaker 1: my thesis here, But let me keep it going. So

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Speaker 1: let's go back and let me walk you through that

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Speaker 1: period of history here a little bit. By the time

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Speaker 1: Andrew Jackson left office in eighteen thirty seven, the American

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Speaker 1: political system was already cracking along a fault line that

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Speaker 1: everyone could feel and almost nobody wanted to name directly.

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Speaker 1: Slavery was the wound, right, we know it, essentially, it's

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Speaker 1: the it's our original sin of this country. But westward

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Speaker 1: expansion was the pressure, and the political class on both

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Speaker 1: sides of this argument had developed an almost institution dutional

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Speaker 1: allergy to have an honest reckoning with either one. So

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Speaker 1: what followed was twenty eight years of presidents trying everything

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Speaker 1: except the thing that needed to be done. Let's start

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Speaker 1: with Martin Van Buren. He was Jackson's hand picked successor,

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Speaker 1: the original political operator, the man who basically invented the

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Speaker 1: modern party machine, and his theory the case was, don't

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Speaker 1: touch it. Slavery is a matter for the states. Keep

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Speaker 1: the coalition together by refusing to let the coalition fight.

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Speaker 1: Keep your head down, keep your mouth shut, and hold

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Speaker 1: the line. And then the Panic of eighteen thirty seven hit.

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Speaker 1: It was the worst economic collapse the country had seen

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Speaker 1: up until that point, and Van Buren discovered that avoidance

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Speaker 1: isn't a strategy. It's just a slower form of collapse.

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Speaker 1: When you refuse to lead on the defining issue of

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Speaker 1: your era, you don't protect yourself from it. You just

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Speaker 1: guarantee that when it catches up to you, you're already weakened.

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Speaker 1: The next president elected was William Henry Harrison, quickly succeeded

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Speaker 1: by John Tyler. Right, Harrison is the one who died

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Speaker 1: thirty one days after taking office, shortest presidency in American history.

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Speaker 1: So John Tyler ended up president, and he was a

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Speaker 1: Virginia States rights man. He was placed on this Whig

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Speaker 1: ticket purely for geographical balance. They never actually wanted him

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Speaker 1: to serve as president. The theory of course was that

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Speaker 1: you could paper over the fundamental divide in the country

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Speaker 1: with a clever lineup card right, put a Northerner at

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Speaker 1: the top and a Southerner underneath, call it a coalition,

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Speaker 1: and hope nobody looks too closely. Well Tyler when he

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Speaker 1: became president after thirty one days, he vetoed virtually everything

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Speaker 1: that the Whig control Congress sent him. He got expelled

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Speaker 1: from his own party. He spent four years proving that

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Speaker 1: ticket balancing is not coalition building. It's just a delayed reckoning.

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Speaker 1: The divide didn't go away because you dressed it up.

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Speaker 1: It just simply waited. Next came James Polk. Now it's

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Speaker 1: an underrated presidency. Might be the best one term presidency

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Speaker 1: we've ever had, George H. W. Bush, And we would

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Speaker 1: like a little say in that. But in a sense

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Speaker 1: that Pope actually did some things. He was decisive, he

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Speaker 1: was disciplined, and he had a theory of how to

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Speaker 1: avoid the issue expansion. If we just got more land,

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Speaker 1: there's enough for everybody, and then we don't have to

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Speaker 1: fight about it. The promise of the West would ease

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Speaker 1: the tension, he thought between the North and the South,

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Speaker 1: because there'd be room to grow in every direction. The

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Speaker 1: Mexican American War gave in California and the Southwest, and

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Speaker 1: all it did was reopen the slavery question with a

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Speaker 1: ferocity that nobody could contain, because now there was new territory,

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Speaker 1: and the question of where slavery would expand became the

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Speaker 1: question that consumed everything. The Wilmot Proviso, the attempt at

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Speaker 1: bann slavery in any territory acquired by Mexico acquired from Mexico,

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Speaker 1: was born in his presidency and nearly tore his own

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Speaker 1: party apart. So expansion did not relieve the pressure. It

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Speaker 1: multiplied it. I'm solving a symptom to make the disease worse.

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Speaker 1: off and yes, I too am a customer. Zachary Taylor.

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Speaker 1: He was a Southern slave owner. He owned more than

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Speaker 1: one hundred enslaved people, who nonetheless told the South to

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Speaker 1: back off on secession threats over California statehood. And he

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Speaker 1: was willing to call their bluff and he said, essentially,

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Speaker 1: if you want to leave, try it, and he didn't

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Speaker 1: think they would, and he might have been right, but

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Speaker 1: we never found out. He died in office, supposedly eating

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Speaker 1: poisoned cherries, but most people assume it was a cute

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Speaker 1: gastrio enteritis. But there've always been a little bit If

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Speaker 1: you want, you want to talk about a few conspiracy

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Speaker 1: theories that are still unresolved about that death, you can

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Speaker 1: go down some rabbit holes, because his death was a

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Speaker 1: little bit murky, and it was happening an incredibly important time.

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Speaker 1: He was a Southerner pushing back on the South. So

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Speaker 1: we don't know if his bluff was if the bluff

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Speaker 1: was real that he was willing to do. History will

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Speaker 1: never know if his toughness was actually the path forward,

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Speaker 1: if he was the Nixon to China guy, or if

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Speaker 1: it was going to just lead to another dead end.

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Speaker 1: He was willing to force the crisis, unlike previous presidents.

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Speaker 1: Whether forcing it would have resolved it in that moment, we're

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Speaker 1: never know. But he was gone before the answer arrived.

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Speaker 1: Millard Fillmore takes over and he inherits Taylor stand off,

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Speaker 1: and he resolved it, so he thought he did. With

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Speaker 1: the compromise of eighteen fifty package deal, California comes in

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Speaker 1: as a free state slave trade though not slavery itself,

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Speaker 1: ends in Washington, d c. And in return, the South

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Speaker 1: gets the Fugitive Slave Act, a federal law requiring northern

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Speaker 1: states to actively return escaped in slave people to their owners,

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Speaker 1: so called owners. Fillmore signed it genuinely believing he had

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Speaker 1: saved the Republic. He called it the final settlement of

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Speaker 1: the slavery question, the final settlement, basically agreeing that half

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Speaker 1: the country would have slaves and half would find it abhorrent.

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Speaker 1: But anyway, that's what he thought. Obviously, he was catastrophically wrong.

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Speaker 1: What the Fugitive Slave Act actually did was make the

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Speaker 1: North personally complicit in slavery's enforcement for the first time.

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Speaker 1: Ordinary Northern nurse people in Ohio and Pennsylvania and Massachusetts

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Speaker 1: who never thought much about slavery. One way or another,

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Speaker 1: were being deputy eyes to participate in it, and a

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Speaker 1: galvanized the abolitionist movement like nothing before it. Harriet Beecherstow

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Speaker 1: wrote Uncle Tom's Cabin in direct response to this, became

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Speaker 1: the best selling novel of the nineteenth century. Sometimes the

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Speaker 1: compromise is the crisis. Sometimes the thing you do to

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Speaker 1: lower the temperature is the thing that lights the fire.

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Speaker 1: Franklin Pierce came in. The Democrats had a theory for

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Speaker 1: his presidency. Nominate a northern man. He was from New Hampshire,

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Speaker 1: with southern sympathies what they called a dough face, and

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Speaker 1: you split the difference, you get a candidate who can

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Speaker 1: win in the North without alienating the South. Pierce was

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Speaker 1: from New Hampshire, charming, he was handsome, and he was

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Speaker 1: completely spineless in the question that mattered the most. He

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Speaker 1: signed the Kansas Nebraska Act, which repeated the Missouri Compromise.

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Speaker 1: Repealed the Missouri Compromise, an agreement that had for three

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Speaker 1: decades kept slavery out of the northern territories, and he

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Speaker 1: replaced it with popular sovereignty, i e. Let the settlers

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Speaker 1: decide the slavery question sounds democratic, but what it actually

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Speaker 1: produced was a race between pro slavery and anti slavery

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Speaker 1: settlers to flood into Kansas and determine its future by force.

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Speaker 1: The result was bleeding Kansas, a preview of the Civil War.

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Speaker 1: Years before the actual Civil War. Towns burned, people died.

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Speaker 1: The federal government just stood by that strategy. The dough

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Speaker 1: face strategy did not bridge the divide, it detonated it. Finally,

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Speaker 1: there was James Muckinn, a former Secretary of State, right,

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Speaker 1: a former senator, a former ambassador of Britain, the most

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Speaker 1: experienced man to assume the presidency and a generation, and

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Speaker 1: he was catastrophically wrong about almost everything. He is regularly

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Speaker 1: seen as the guy who's last on any list of presidents,

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Speaker 1: simply because if you lose, and if you lose the Union,

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Speaker 1: you're probably dead last. Now, if you can't and privately

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Speaker 1: lobby the Supreme Court justices on the dred Scott case,

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Speaker 1: pushed them to issue a sweeping ruling that would, he believed,

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Speaker 1: finally settle the slavery question legally well. The Court obliged

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Speaker 1: no black person could ever be a US citizen. The

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Speaker 1: court claimed Congress had no authority to ban slavery anywhere.

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Speaker 1: You Canon celebrated this decision. He thought it was over. Instead,

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Speaker 1: it finished off what was left of his of the

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Speaker 1: political center. The Republican Party, young anti slavery organized around

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Speaker 1: opposition to exactly this. Won the next election, guy named

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Speaker 1: Abraham Lincoln. First time a third party won the presidency,

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Speaker 1: and when Southern states began to secede, Buchanan concluded he

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Speaker 1: had no constitutional authority to stop them. He was in

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Speaker 1: a narrow technical sense correct, but he was morally disastrous.

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Speaker 1: He handed Abraham Lincoln a country already on fire with

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Speaker 1: the kindling stacked by every president who came before him.

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Speaker 1: But here's the through line, and I think this is

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Speaker 1: what should echo today and whyatt continues to ring in

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Speaker 1: my ear, and why it's a place I go. Every

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Speaker 1: one of these men saw divide. They weren't oblivious, just

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Speaker 1: like we've seen here. Everybody knows the divide that we

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Speaker 1: live in at the moment. All of these elected senators

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Speaker 1: understand this is a shit show and it's got to stop,

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Speaker 1: right just like those men did. They wrote about it,

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Speaker 1: they worried about it, they tried to manage it, and

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Speaker 1: each one reached for a tool, avoidance, ticket balancing, expansion, compromise,

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Speaker 1: legal resolution, geographic splitting of the difference, and every tool

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Speaker 1: broke in their hands. And it was a simple reason

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Speaker 1: the country wasn't ready. The cost of resolution, which turned

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Speaker 1: out to be a war that killed seven hundred thousand Americans,

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Speaker 1: was still in the political calculus of each of those moments,

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Speaker 1: higher than the cost of one more delay, one more patch,

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Speaker 1: one more clever maneuver. It took the thing nobody wanted

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Speaker 1: before the country finally moved through it. So are we

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Speaker 1: there yet? No, I'm not at vacating civil war here, guys. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so I do want to be careful there, But I

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Speaker 1: want to show you what this week past weekend looked like,

428
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:11,399
Speaker 1: because I think it does tell you almost everything you

429
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,200
Speaker 1: need to know about where we are in the moment.

430
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 1: Big split screen, right, two countries, same weekend. On one side.

431
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 1: Did the third round of the No Kings rallies? Organizers

432
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:25,960
Speaker 1: say eight eight million people turned turned out nationally, might

433
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 1: be the largest ever. Last time. They estimated seven million

434
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 1: turned out for the last No Kings March a couple

435
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 1: months ago. They are grassroots organized, they've got real professional

436
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 1: money behind it. Let's not pretend that this is totally organic,

437
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,760
Speaker 1: but it's progressive driven demonstrations against the Trump agenda. And

438
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 1: this weekend, the two animating issues were immigration enforcement in

439
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 1: the I Ran War now officially a month in month old.

440
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 1: The biggest hub was Minnesota. That's where Bruce Springsteen performed

441
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:56,159
Speaker 1: at Saint Paul months after the two American citizens were

442
00:25:56,240 --> 00:26:01,879
Speaker 1: killed by Ice agents. And these rallies reached beyond the

443
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 1: expected cities. We saw places like Shelbyville, Kentucky, Midland, Texas

444
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 1: hold some of these No King's rallies. It wasn't just

445
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 1: the big cities, the big blue cities, if you will.

446
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 1: That isn't nothing. There's no doubt the opposition to Trump

447
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 1: is growing, and the opposition to Trump is in some

448
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:29,159
Speaker 1: ways very focused and very mission driven here and I

449
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 1: think we're probably going to see the result of that

450
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,399
Speaker 1: in the midterms. Now on the other side, yet another

451
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 1: gathering of partisans seapack down in Texas. They were closing

452
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 1: out a four day conference in Grapevine, Texas. The marquis

453
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 1: speaker wasn't a sitting American official. It was Iran's exiled

454
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 1: crown Prince Reza pau Lavi, the oldest son of the

455
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 1: late of the last Shaw of Iran, drew standing room

456
00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 1: only crowd, positioning himself as Iran's future leader, his supporters

457
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 1: waving Iranian flags through the convention hall. Steve Bannon was there.

458
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 1: RFK Junior was their former Border Patrol commander. Greg Rovino

459
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 1: was there. He ran the Minnesota enforcement surge and of

460
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 1: course was forced out after the disasters that he oversaw.

461
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 1: And here's what I want you to notice about both

462
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:23,680
Speaker 1: of these gatherings. While they were each internally coherent, and

463
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:28,639
Speaker 1: they were also mutually incomprehensible to the other side. And

464
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 1: that's probably the tee that we're in Democratic energy. It's

465
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 1: very real. Trump's approval ratings are second term lows. This

466
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 1: is all time lows for him thirty six percent and

467
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 1: Rip Borders IPSOS thirty eight percent, AP forty one percent.

468
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 1: In Fox News, I probably, if you want to know

469
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 1: the truth, I probably feel the best about the Fox

470
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 1: News poll, meaning I just you know, they have to

471
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 1: bipartisan team that does it. They always have registered voters.

472
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,200
Speaker 1: They just have a you know, IPSOS and AP NORC

473
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 1: just their samples. I don't think are as strong. Is

474
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 1: what the Fox News folks do. Each pole shows tanking numbers,

475
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 1: though I mean there's some consistency to all these polls

476
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:06,960
Speaker 1: tanking numbers on the economy and the Iran War. There's

477
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:10,679
Speaker 1: genuine grassroots mobilization and for the first time in a while,

478
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 1: we're seeing younger voters fired up about voting in the midterms.

479
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 1: There is no doubt there is a movement to throw

480
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 1: out the party in power. But just remember and Democrats.

481
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:28,119
Speaker 1: I've been repeating this before, and I think I understand

482
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:33,159
Speaker 1: the feeling of glossing over this in the moment. Just

483
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 1: because there's lower approval for Trump doesn't mean that there's

484
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 1: automatically now higher trust with the Democrats. In fact, we've

485
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 1: seen plenty of polling indicating, my goodness, I told you

486
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 1: about that poll last week where the Democrats have the

487
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 1: worst party brand, worse than the Republicans and worse than

488
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 1: MAGA by a point or two even though they're winning.

489
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 1: Right there is not It is once again, we know

490
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 1: what we don't want, and I want to go back

491
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 1: to those That's that's what we knew in the twenty

492
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 1: eight years in between Jackson and Lincoln. We knew, Oh

493
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 1: we didn't want. That's why we kept kicking out those presidents.

494
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 1: We kept getting trying a new president. We kept looking

495
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 1: for a different answer. We couldn't figure out. We knew

496
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 1: what we didn't want, we didn't want a civil war,

497
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 1: but we didn't find any way around it. And I

498
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 1: fear we don't have the leaders to meet the moment

499
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 1: we need right now to avoid this getting worse. And

500
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 1: that's what's the head scratcher here in the moment that

501
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 1: we're living in. So people see the problem, but they're

502
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 1: not ready. We're not ready for a full resolution to

503
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 1: this yet. So on the Republican side, SEAPEC was a

504
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 1: snapshot of something a bit more complicated than it appears.

505
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 1: And yes there were USA chants, Yes there were some enthusiasm,

506
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: but attendees were whispering on the sidelines that this year's

507
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 1: gathering felt smaller, felt more subdued than recent ones, because

508
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 1: it was this is a divided party, and underneath the

509
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 1: service there were real fractures, particularly among young men, over

510
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 1: the Iran war and the still unresolve. Jeffrey Epstein questions.

511
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 1: One thirty year old attendee said it this way, a

512
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 1: lot of the young generation feels that there's not a

513
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 1: lot of hope for the economy. This economy is a mess,

514
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 1: and it is all Donald Trump's economy, right from the

515
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 1: tariffs to this war, to the spike and gas prices.

516
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 1: I mean, this is turning into his eye. And I

517
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:27,959
Speaker 1: think I said this before. I think he is going

518
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 1: to I think he's probably at the point of no return.

519
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 1: You get to a point in a second term where

520
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 1: you don't really get a second shot at recovering barring

521
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 1: some outside event that allows you to sort of be

522
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 1: a hero in the moment. And it's just hard to

523
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 1: envision some event like that. And then there's also the

524
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 1: fact that they and this is something that's true on

525
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 1: both sides, both parties right now, there is a divide

526
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 1: about how to tackle this moment. Right you know, in

527
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 1: Seapack we saw and the results of the straw Pole

528
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 1: jd Vance ad fifty three percent of who they wanted

529
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 1: to see. In twenty twenty eight, Mark Ruby was at

530
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 1: thirty five percent. So the MAGA base is not united

531
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 1: yet on what kind of success do they want to say,

532
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 1: And we haven't even had the midterms yet. What happens

533
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 1: if the midterms are a disaster for the right, So

534
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 1: it's a party that hasn't finished its own internal reckoning. Right.

535
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 1: You know, Trump's in charge of this coalition. But as

536
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 1: Trump truly changed the party for good, you still feel

537
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 1: the tension inside this party, right, They're still not sure

538
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 1: where they're going to go post Trump. Meanwhile, back in Washington,

539
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 1: the government shutdown continued. We're not a record length, you know,

540
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 1: with the House just sort of dumping on the Senate plan.

541
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 1: Obviously there's going to be at least some resolution to

542
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 1: temporary pay with this weird executive order, but it only

543
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 1: can last for a small period of time. But here

544
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 1: we are. Senate won't pass the House US's plan. The

545
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 1: House won't pass the Senate's plan. Nobody has the votes,

546
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 1: and then nobody has the will, and nobody has the

547
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 1: face saving exit. It really is James Buchanan level institutional

548
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:16,400
Speaker 1: paralysis that we're in right now. Technically everyone has a

549
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 1: constitutional argument and practically nothing is working. So are we

550
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 1: ready to move on? Are we ready to get out

551
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 1: of this moment? My honest answer, and I say this

552
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 1: not with despair but with it, but frankly with the

553
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 1: historian's cold I patience, We're just not ready yet. Here's why.

554
00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 1: In the pre Civil War era, every tool broke because

555
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 1: the underlying condition, the question of whether slavery would expand

556
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 1: or contract, whether the country future was slave or free,

557
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 1: hadn't been resolved at the level of public consensus. The

558
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 1: political class kept reaching for procedural solutions to a moral question,

559
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 1: and procedural solutions to moral questions never hold. They just

560
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 1: delay the inevitable. They patch. They may be able to

561
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:08,959
Speaker 1: put it off for a year or two, but they

562
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 1: eventually break, and usually in weighs much worse than if

563
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 1: you'd address the thing directly. Right works this way in life. Now,

564
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 1: what we have now is not slavery. And this is

565
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 1: what I want us to be careful about. Not to

566
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 1: over analogize this. And I get it, I'm the one

567
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 1: doing it, but I'm you know, And this is a

568
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 1: reminder it just there is a familiarity here. We have

569
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 1: a version of the same core problem. We have two

570
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 1: fundamentally different visions of what America is, who it's four?

571
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 1: Who is an American? Right? It's the same questions, And

572
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:43,920
Speaker 1: we haven't yet reached the moment where the cost of

573
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 1: not deciding exceeds the cost of deciding. So you look

574
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 1: at the split screen again. The no King's rallies are real,

575
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 1: eight million people is real. Energy is real, But energy

576
00:33:56,400 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 1: doesn't automatically become a coalition. The pre Civil War era

577
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 1: had plenty of energy. The abolitionist movement was vibrant, passionate,

578
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 1: and morally clear. And it took decades more before that

579
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 1: energy converted into the political realignment that produced Lincoln. But

580
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 1: remember Lincoln was a third party solution. Just keep that

581
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:27,239
Speaker 1: in mind. The fractures at Seapack are real. Young men

582
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 1: worried about the economy, worried about Iran, quietly whispering that

583
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 1: something feels off. But fractures don't automatically produce alternatives. The

584
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 1: Whig Party fractured badly multiple times before it finally collapsed

585
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:42,279
Speaker 1: and the Republican Party emerged from the wreckage. What I

586
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 1: think we're missing, and what I'd argue both parties are

587
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:48,799
Speaker 1: still missing, is the exhaustion from these maximalist positions that

588
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 1: each side wants to take care. Each side still believes,

589
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:54,320
Speaker 1: or at least its base beliefs, that one more election,

590
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 1: one more mobilization, one more wave gets them to dominance

591
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:03,359
Speaker 1: and and they can get this done. Democrats look at Trump

592
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:06,239
Speaker 1: at thirty six percent and think this is it's this

593
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 1: is the moment. Republicans look at those twenty twenty four

594
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 1: results and think, we have the mandate. We just have

595
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 1: to hold the line. Neither side is fully reckoned with

596
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 1: the possibility that they can't win this way, that the

597
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 1: country is too evenly divided, the structural incentives are too

598
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 1: deeply entrenched for either maximalist project to fully succeed. And

599
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 1: here's the uncomfortable question I keep coming back to, does

600
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 1: each party need to exhaust its own version of the

601
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:39,600
Speaker 1: maximalist fantasy before we find something more durable? Now Republicans

602
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 1: have had basically are having their maximalist moment. It's Donald Trump, right,

603
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 1: they're living it right now. They have a shutdown that's

604
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 1: breaking records. They have an Iran war that's generating real

605
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 1: division within their own coalition, approval numbers that suggest the

606
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:54,719
Speaker 1: public is increasingly uncomfortable where this goes. But they're trying

607
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 1: to deport millions of people, right, They're trying to do

608
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 1: everything they can. But if Democrats had their equivalent, have

609
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 1: they found the thing that forces a genuine reckoning with

610
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,760
Speaker 1: why they keep losing ground on the economy, immigration, and crime,

611
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:10,279
Speaker 1: even when the other side is collapsing, or do they

612
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 1: win the midterms, feel vindicated and defer the reckoning. Again,

613
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:18,399
Speaker 1: I'm not asking rhetorically. I think it's the actual question

614
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 1: that determines whether twenty twenty eight is a stabilizing election

615
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 1: or another pendulum swing that sets up the next cycle

616
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 1: of backlash. Bottom line is, I think we're still a

617
00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:33,440
Speaker 1: couple of more elections away, all right. I am, like

618
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 1: I say, I'm a long term optimist, short term pessimist.

619
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:39,319
Speaker 1: But in some ways I think each side and I think,

620
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:41,719
Speaker 1: you know, the base of the Democratic Party hasn't gotten

621
00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 1: its presidency yet, the Republican base has gotten its presidency,

622
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 1: and it may be we need to see that play

623
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 1: itself out. Maybe it succeeds, maybe it's the answer, maybe

624
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:55,320
Speaker 1: it's maybe it is maybe it's an FDR like figure,

625
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:57,840
Speaker 1: but we don't know that yet. The point is, I

626
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 1: don't think this is played out now. Lincoln understood something

627
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 1: that the eight men before him didn't or wouldn't. He

628
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 1: understood that you couldn't solve the divide by managing it.

629
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 1: You could only solve it by going through it. And

630
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 1: going through it meant naming the thing directly, taking the

631
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 1: political risk, and accepting that the short term cost of

632
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:25,080
Speaker 1: honesty was lower than the long term cost of another delay.

633
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 1: His second inaugural one of the most extraordinary speeches in

634
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 1: American history, frankly in world history. It didn't pretend the

635
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 1: war hadn't happened, or that reconciliation would be easy. He

636
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:40,920
Speaker 1: just simply said, with malice toward none, with charity for all.

637
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 1: But he said it after four years of war, after

638
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:47,400
Speaker 1: the cost had been paid, after the country had finally

639
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 1: brutally decided where are we going and who are we

640
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 1: So we're not there yet. We're probably somewhere in the

641
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:58,440
Speaker 1: Franklin peers to James Buchanan range of this story. We're

642
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:01,800
Speaker 1: probably past the early avoidance face. We're into the phase

643
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 1: where the tools are breaking faster and more visibly. Right,

644
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 1: Congress couldn't get every six months, it gets more functional, dysfunctional.

645
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:12,880
Speaker 1: Jiujudiciary seems to get a tad more dysfunctional with it

646
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:15,799
Speaker 1: as well. But we're not yet at the moment where

647
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 1: the country decides the cost of delay is finally too high,

648
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 1: where we finally have a leader who meets the moment

649
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:24,040
Speaker 1: that we may be really fully looking for It might

650
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 1: sound grim. I actually think it's useful because if you

651
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:29,959
Speaker 1: know where you are in the story, you can stop

652
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 1: being surprised by the chaos and you can start paying

653
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 1: attention to the signal underneath it. The signal isn't the rallies,

654
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:38,920
Speaker 1: It isn't the straw poles, It isn't the shutdown. The

655
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 1: signal is whether either party or some new force we

656
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 1: can't fully see yet. Right there was the Republican Party

657
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 1: was not really that's that much in the front and

658
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 1: center of things in the eighteen thirties, forties, and even

659
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 1: in the early eighteen fifties. The signal is whether either

660
00:38:56,680 --> 00:39:00,840
Speaker 1: party is developing the thing that comes after this maximalism

661
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 1: that we're all that we're all in in the moment

662
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 1: politics of the country as it actually is, rather than

663
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 1: the country. Each base imagines it can force everybody else

664
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:15,759
Speaker 1: to exist it. So that's what I'm watching for. That's

665
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 1: what twenty twenty six will start to tell us. That's

666
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:20,279
Speaker 1: why I'm obsessed with what's happening in Michigan. Governor Are

667
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:22,799
Speaker 1: they going to go independent or not? Right? We're going

668
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 1: to see, well, some of these independents win. Are we

669
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 1: going to see a punishment of both parties or are

670
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 1: we going to see just sort of this continued, sort

671
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 1: of windshield wiper approach to things, or we just go

672
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:37,840
Speaker 1: back and forth one more time. So we're not there yet.

673
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 1: But do know this, just like with bankruptcy, all this

674
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 1: stuff takes takes forever until it happens almost overnight. All right.

675
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 1: So with that, and again, let me just emphasize, I

676
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 1: just realized I need empathy. I'm not saying it's going

677
00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:03,840
Speaker 1: to take a hot civil war for us to decide

678
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 1: this political divide that we're in, but we are sitting

679
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:11,040
Speaker 1: here basically right. At some point there's going to be

680
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:13,720
Speaker 1: an attempt to break this. Maybe it's from the center,

681
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 1: maybe it's from inside one of the two parties, maybe

682
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 1: it's from a third party. The point is, I don't

683
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 1: think we're there yet, or we're probably at least one,

684
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:33,840
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685
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Speaker 1: This is a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code. Well,

716
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:27,439
Speaker 1: I have to tell you I'm obsessed with all things

717
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:31,359
Speaker 1: California governor right now. I'm really curious to see how

718
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 1: these democrats are going to shake out. Will somebody catch

719
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 1: up to Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell and Tom Steyer. I

720
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 1: will tell you this, I think the weakest candidacy is

721
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:45,840
Speaker 1: actually Tom Styers when you think about the amount of

722
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 1: money he has spent and how little support he has.

723
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 1: If any other Democrat has spent, had the same amount

724
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:55,360
Speaker 1: of money spent on their behalf, Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell,

725
00:42:55,520 --> 00:43:02,719
Speaker 1: Matt Man, Antonio Viaregoso, you name it, anybody else with

726
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 1: the amount of money that Styer spent, I promise you

727
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:06,800
Speaker 1: they'd be doing They'd be higher in the polls in Styre.

728
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:10,359
Speaker 1: So I do think that we know with no matter

729
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:12,760
Speaker 1: how much money he spends, he's got a hard ceiling,

730
00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 1: and I just can't imagine he's going to find his

731
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 1: way in the top two. I know he's trying to

732
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 1: buy it. He may he may destroy Swallwell in the process,

733
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:28,400
Speaker 1: but my guess is he will help candidates see somewhere

734
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 1: on the Democratic side breakthrough. Whoever candidates see ends up being.

735
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 1: Is it Katie Porter, I'm skeptical. Is it Matt Man

736
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 1: hasn't gotten traction yet. Is it be a Regosa. I'm

737
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:43,240
Speaker 1: not going to rule it out, but I'm skeptical as well.

738
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:46,320
Speaker 1: But we'll see. But something's going to break here, somebody

739
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:49,560
Speaker 1: will start rallying. It'll and the person that's going to

740
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 1: It's going to be interesting to watch Kevin Newsoman all

741
00:43:52,120 --> 00:43:54,800
Speaker 1: this because it would be really embarrassing if his party

742
00:43:54,840 --> 00:43:57,319
Speaker 1: can't get a Democrat in the top two. But he

743
00:43:57,360 --> 00:44:00,920
Speaker 1: doesn't really have an air parent and frankly, many of

744
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 1: these Democrats are kind of criticizing him in this, so

745
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:09,880
Speaker 1: it is kind of a mess there. And let's just

746
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:11,880
Speaker 1: say I think there's a lot of Democrats in California.

747
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 1: Glad that there's a couple more months to work this out.

748
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 1: All right, it is time machine time, as you know.

749
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 1: I like to take an anniversary of this week that

750
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 1: we're living in, so March thirtieth through April fifth, historical

751
00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:36,480
Speaker 1: events that have taken place within this seven day period.

752
00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 1: There were a lot this week to choose from to

753
00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:47,239
Speaker 1: one assassination attempt Ronald Reagan, one historic assassination tragic in

754
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:49,719
Speaker 1: Martin Luther King Junior. That is not the direction we're

755
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:53,640
Speaker 1: going today. We're going to go to nineteen forty nine.

756
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 1: April fourth, nineteen forty nine, inside Washington, d C. Representatives

757
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:02,360
Speaker 1: from twelve countries signed a treaty creating something that was

758
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:07,680
Speaker 1: brand new in American history, a permanent military alliance, the

759
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:13,719
Speaker 1: North Atlantic Treaty Organization NATO. Now it doesn't sound radical today,

760
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 1: but for the United States in nineteen forty nine, this

761
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:20,920
Speaker 1: was radical because for most of its history, America avoided

762
00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 1: permanent alliances. George Washington himself warned against permanent alliances, and

763
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 1: in fact, there was a belief that so many wars

764
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 1: in Europe took place because of these alliances between monarchies

765
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 1: that forced countries to take part in wars that maybe

766
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:45,400
Speaker 1: they had no issue with and no business being. And

767
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 1: in fact, after World War One, the United States refused

768
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:50,319
Speaker 1: to even join the League of Nations, which was an

769
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:53,279
Speaker 1: idea by an American. So the real question is not

770
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:55,200
Speaker 1: just what NATO is. The real question is why did

771
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:58,239
Speaker 1: it take two World wars for the United States to

772
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 1: decide it needed one. After War One, there was an

773
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:07,920
Speaker 1: attempt at collective security the League of Nations. The idea

774
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:11,279
Speaker 1: was similar countries would cooperate to prevent future wars. But

775
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:14,600
Speaker 1: there were two fatal flaws. First, the United States never joined.

776
00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:17,280
Speaker 1: That was a big one. The Senate rejected the membership

777
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 1: in the League of Nations. Americans were very wary of

778
00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 1: foreign entanglement. Second, the League had no enforcement mechanism, no

779
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:27,760
Speaker 1: binding military commitment, so when aggression came in the nineteen thirties,

780
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 1: the League couldn't condemn it, but it couldn't stop it.

781
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 1: That failure shaped everything that came next. After World War II,

782
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:40,240
Speaker 1: the calculation changed. The United States wasn't withdrawing, it was staying,

783
00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:44,400
Speaker 1: and the threat wasn't theoretical. It was The Soviet Union.

784
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:47,600
Speaker 1: Between nineteen forty five and nineteen forty nine, Eastern Europe

785
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:52,239
Speaker 1: fell under Soviet control, the Communists coup, and then Czechoslovakia

786
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:59,360
Speaker 1: the Berlin Blockade. In fact, Churchill's famous Iron Curtain wasn't

787
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 1: just rhetoric, It was actually a map that he was

788
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 1: trying to show and visualized. Western Europe could not defend

789
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:08,280
Speaker 1: itself alone, and for the first time, the United States

790
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:12,640
Speaker 1: accepted something new. Security couldn't be temporary, it had to

791
00:47:12,640 --> 00:47:17,360
Speaker 1: be permanent, but that idea still had to pass the

792
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:21,839
Speaker 1: skeptical United States Senate. The breakthrough came with the Van

793
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 1: den Berg Resolution in nineteen forty eight, one year before

794
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 1: NATO was born. Senator Arthur Vandenberg helped shift American foreign

795
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:33,120
Speaker 1: policy towards internationalism, but he did it very carefully. The

796
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:35,719
Speaker 1: key condition he came up with was that any alliance

797
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:40,640
Speaker 1: that the United States got into must preserve Congress's authority

798
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:45,840
Speaker 1: over war. That constraint would end up shaping the NATO

799
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:51,640
Speaker 1: Treaty itself. The North Atlantic Treaty did not pass automatically.

800
00:47:52,160 --> 00:47:54,680
Speaker 1: The Senate debated it for ten days because the central

801
00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:58,000
Speaker 1: issue was would NATO automatically commit the United States to

802
00:47:58,040 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 1: war or would Congress still be the decider on that

803
00:48:02,640 --> 00:48:04,640
Speaker 1: I know what you're thinking at the moment here, you're like, well,

804
00:48:04,640 --> 00:48:06,600
Speaker 1: in a minute, Congress is not the decider. Even now

805
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 1: we're in a war and they didn't do a thing

806
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 1: about it. I know, but let me finish this. So

807
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:16,399
Speaker 1: Article five was written the way it was in order

808
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:20,560
Speaker 1: to navigate this question. Each country would take quote such

809
00:48:20,680 --> 00:48:25,239
Speaker 1: action as it deems necessary. So what an automatic war?

810
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:30,399
Speaker 1: It did allow for some constitutional discretion. That language made

811
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 1: ratification possible. So in July twenty first, nineteen forty nine,

812
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:41,200
Speaker 1: the Senate approved that April fourth Treaty eighty two to thirteen.

813
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:44,880
Speaker 1: Strong support, but it took real debate and some compromise.

814
00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:48,600
Speaker 1: At the center of NATO is Article five. You've heard

815
00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:51,120
Speaker 1: it before. An attack on one is considered an attack

816
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 1: on all. For the United States, that was a big

817
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 1: lead a permanent security commitment to Europe. Now there were

818
00:48:57,560 --> 00:49:04,360
Speaker 1: twelve original members, the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Belgium,

819
00:49:04,560 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 1: the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Italy, and Portugal. That

820
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 1: was a North Atlantic alliance, was not global, and it

821
00:49:17,080 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 1: was not open ended. It specifically was focused on Europe

822
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:28,600
Speaker 1: and North America. Now NATO would expand, first in nineteen

823
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:31,319
Speaker 1: fifty two and then again in nineteen fifty five. In

824
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:34,920
Speaker 1: fifty two, Greece and Turkey would join, But the most

825
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:39,440
Speaker 1: consequential decision was nineteen fifty five when West Germany joined.

826
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,200
Speaker 1: Only ten years after World War iiO, the West integrated

827
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:47,200
Speaker 1: a re armed Germany into its defense system. Not everybody

828
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 1: was thrilled with that idea. For countries like France, that

829
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:55,319
Speaker 1: was deeply uncomfortable, but the logic was clear. Germany would

830
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:58,799
Speaker 1: be safer inside the system than outside it, and the

831
00:49:58,840 --> 00:50:02,240
Speaker 1: payoff was real. Germany became a stable democracy and eventually

832
00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:06,680
Speaker 1: would become Europe's largest economy and really the political anchor

833
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:10,640
Speaker 1: of the continent. So for decades, NATO had a simple

834
00:50:10,680 --> 00:50:14,399
Speaker 1: purpose contained the Soviet Union, and it worked not by

835
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 1: fighting a war, but by making one too costly to

836
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:24,839
Speaker 1: start determance. Then the Soviet Union collapsed and NATO lost

837
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:30,440
Speaker 1: its original purpose. The question became does NATO still exist? Well,

838
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:35,880
Speaker 1: the answer was yes, but the reason changed. NATO expanded

839
00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:40,040
Speaker 1: eastward in nineteen ninety nine, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech

840
00:50:40,040 --> 00:50:44,280
Speaker 1: Republic one half of Czechoslovakia would join in two thousand

841
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:49,279
Speaker 1: and four. The Baltic States, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia they

842
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:55,600
Speaker 1: all would join, and later Albania, which borders on the Adriatic,

843
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:59,000
Speaker 1: which we all learned if you watched enough Cheers episodes. Sorry,

844
00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:01,239
Speaker 1: I could not help myself. There's always a little coach

845
00:51:01,280 --> 00:51:03,360
Speaker 1: in me. It's an easter egg for some of you.

846
00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:08,040
Speaker 1: Later though, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and of course,

847
00:51:08,080 --> 00:51:11,360
Speaker 1: most recently, the two that the Russias war with Ukraine

848
00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:16,280
Speaker 1: triggered Finland and Sweden. For new members NATO mense security.

849
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:23,799
Speaker 1: For Russia, it meant encroachment. Both perceptions have shaped modern geopolitics.

850
00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:26,960
Speaker 1: Then there's Ukraine. Ukraine sits at the center of this

851
00:51:27,040 --> 00:51:29,000
Speaker 1: tension and it always has. In two thousand and eight,

852
00:51:29,040 --> 00:51:33,279
Speaker 1: NATO decided said that Ukraine would eventually join, but it

853
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:37,560
Speaker 1: didn't provide immediate protection, created a gray zone. This turned

854
00:51:37,600 --> 00:51:39,560
Speaker 1: out to be a catastrophic decision by the way, by

855
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 1: NATO in two thousand and eight. In hindsight, easy to

856
00:51:42,239 --> 00:51:45,960
Speaker 1: say now understandably why they didn't do it then, but

857
00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:49,439
Speaker 1: it had enough promise to matter politically, but not enough

858
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:53,240
Speaker 1: commitment to deter a conflict. Ukraine became the most dangerous

859
00:51:53,239 --> 00:51:56,200
Speaker 1: space between alliance and non alliance. And obviously we now

860
00:51:56,239 --> 00:52:02,799
Speaker 1: know we didn't do enough. Biggest what biggest what if

861
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:08,800
Speaker 1: is if we'd let Ukraine join, would rush it ever invaded.

862
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:12,839
Speaker 1: But here's another part that many people miss about NATO.

863
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:17,840
Speaker 1: Article five has only been invoked once after the September

864
00:52:17,840 --> 00:52:22,400
Speaker 1: eleventh attacks by the United States. It's not just a

865
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:25,839
Speaker 1: historical detail. It's a reminder that alliances become real in

866
00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:31,359
Speaker 1: both directions, and once alliance has become real, they also

867
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:34,440
Speaker 1: become testable, which brings us to today. For decades, the

868
00:52:34,440 --> 00:52:38,439
Speaker 1: primary pressure on NATO came from the outside. Now there's

869
00:52:38,480 --> 00:52:42,120
Speaker 1: pressure from within. In the United States, skepticism about NATO's

870
00:52:42,160 --> 00:52:44,799
Speaker 1: resurfaced in the form of one Donald Trump. He has

871
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:47,880
Speaker 1: repeatedly questioned the value of the alliance, particularly where the

872
00:52:47,960 --> 00:52:50,480
Speaker 1: United States should guarantee the defense of countries that do

873
00:52:50,560 --> 00:52:53,760
Speaker 1: not meet defense spending expectations. Frankly, he doesn't think we

874
00:52:53,880 --> 00:52:57,520
Speaker 1: should be warring it be brought into a conflict by

875
00:52:57,560 --> 00:53:00,319
Speaker 1: a country that's below us, whatever that means to him.

876
00:53:01,560 --> 00:53:05,200
Speaker 1: And obviously he's he believes if NATO doesn't do whatever

877
00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:08,160
Speaker 1: he wants them to do, like secure the Strait of

878
00:53:08,239 --> 00:53:12,680
Speaker 1: Ormuz because he stumbled into a war with Iron without

879
00:53:12,680 --> 00:53:16,160
Speaker 1: a plan. He gets angry that NATO won't bail him out.

880
00:53:16,920 --> 00:53:21,720
Speaker 1: Now he hasn't withdrawn from NATO, but he has introduced

881
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:25,160
Speaker 1: something pretty new for this alliance, the idea that American

882
00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 1: commitment is simply conditional. And this idea that American alliances

883
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:35,080
Speaker 1: are conditional, America's relationship is conditional. This is a huge problem.

884
00:53:35,239 --> 00:53:37,879
Speaker 1: America used to be a reliable partner because it didn't

885
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:40,120
Speaker 1: matter if we had a democratic president or republican president.

886
00:53:40,600 --> 00:53:42,560
Speaker 1: They were always there for Europe. They were always there

887
00:53:42,560 --> 00:53:47,279
Speaker 1: for NATO because NATO isn't just a military structure, it's

888
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:52,799
Speaker 1: a psychological one. Deterrence depends on belief, and up until

889
00:53:52,840 --> 00:53:55,600
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, there was full belief in NATO left and

890
00:53:55,680 --> 00:54:00,399
Speaker 1: right in this country, democratic Republican president Elif. The same time,

891
00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:02,960
Speaker 1: Europe's begun asking its own question, how dependent should it

892
00:54:03,040 --> 00:54:10,839
Speaker 1: be in the United States. Germany is shifting to its

893
00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:14,719
Speaker 1: post Ukraine shift towards a major defense investments. It's part

894
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:17,240
Speaker 1: of the answer. So it's the broader conversation about European

895
00:54:17,280 --> 00:54:21,800
Speaker 1: strategic autonomy, but it raises some tensions. Is Europe strengthening

896
00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:24,600
Speaker 1: NATO or preparing for a world where it may need

897
00:54:24,600 --> 00:54:30,360
Speaker 1: to operate without it. So NATO's identity crisis has evolved.

898
00:54:30,360 --> 00:54:32,640
Speaker 1: It's no longer just what is NATO for after the

899
00:54:32,680 --> 00:54:35,840
Speaker 1: Cold War? It's now how permanent is the American commitment?

900
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:40,120
Speaker 1: How independent should Europe become? And can an alliance built

901
00:54:40,200 --> 00:54:46,080
Speaker 1: uncertainty function in an era of political uncertainty? I might

902
00:54:46,120 --> 00:54:51,279
Speaker 1: also argue should it just be about North America and

903
00:54:51,280 --> 00:54:58,880
Speaker 1: Europe or should we should this umbrella of deterrence include

904
00:54:58,960 --> 00:55:06,800
Speaker 1: continence like South America, Asia Africa, at least for countries

905
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:10,000
Speaker 1: that would like that kind of protection. But all of

906
00:55:10,040 --> 00:55:11,920
Speaker 1: it brings us back to April fourth, nineteen forty nine.

907
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:13,640
Speaker 1: It was a moment when the United States made a

908
00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:16,600
Speaker 1: decision it had resisted for more than a century to

909
00:55:16,760 --> 00:55:22,160
Speaker 1: tie its security to others, not temporarily but permanently, because

910
00:55:22,200 --> 00:55:25,919
Speaker 1: it had learned twice as standing apart actually carried greater risk.

911
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:29,320
Speaker 1: We thought we were protected being surrounded by two oceans

912
00:55:29,680 --> 00:55:31,719
Speaker 1: and not involved in that and not living on that

913
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:34,960
Speaker 1: content that not to be true. So NATO wasn't born

914
00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:38,319
Speaker 1: out of idealism. It was born out of failure and

915
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:44,000
Speaker 1: ironically that's why it's lasted. But how it evolves after

916
00:55:44,040 --> 00:55:52,480
Speaker 1: this and what happens to Ukraine after this war ends

917
00:55:53,239 --> 00:55:55,080
Speaker 1: is probably going to tell us a lot about whether

918
00:55:55,160 --> 00:56:02,160
Speaker 1: NATO has the ability to survive ptuity. So there you go.

919
00:56:03,320 --> 00:56:15,640
Speaker 1: There's your history lesson for the week, Ask Chuck. All right,

920
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:18,160
Speaker 1: let's take some questions. First one comes from Ira Shulman,

921
00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:21,400
Speaker 1: and Ira writes longtime listener and fan. During the last election,

922
00:56:21,760 --> 00:56:23,960
Speaker 1: women's rights were at the top of every news story.

923
00:56:24,160 --> 00:56:26,320
Speaker 1: We were told by almost every new outlet that inflation

924
00:56:26,400 --> 00:56:28,400
Speaker 1: was transitory and that regular people did not know how

925
00:56:28,440 --> 00:56:30,839
Speaker 1: great the economy was. You talked about the price of chicken.

926
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:33,439
Speaker 1: Now it's about affordability. How come no candidates talk about

927
00:56:33,480 --> 00:56:36,160
Speaker 1: job creation. Aren't good paying jobs that protect the social

928
00:56:36,160 --> 00:56:41,080
Speaker 1: safety net? You know, it's interesting, it's not just job creation,

929
00:56:41,560 --> 00:56:44,080
Speaker 1: and I think that's an issue that I think, frankly,

930
00:56:44,120 --> 00:56:46,200
Speaker 1: it's because there's no politicians. They don't know where the

931
00:56:46,239 --> 00:56:49,040
Speaker 1: next jobs are coming from. We're not, we don't. The

932
00:56:49,120 --> 00:56:52,040
Speaker 1: scary part about the transition we're in right now is

933
00:56:52,080 --> 00:56:57,200
Speaker 1: we know we're in. We're transitioning rapidly to an economy

934
00:56:57,200 --> 00:56:59,960
Speaker 1: that's going to be powered in some form by our

935
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:02,520
Speaker 1: official intelligence, and that this is going to be a

936
00:57:02,560 --> 00:57:06,759
Speaker 1: massive transformation. And in history says when we have these

937
00:57:07,080 --> 00:57:10,400
Speaker 1: massive technological transitions like we did with the Industrial Revolution,

938
00:57:11,360 --> 00:57:12,720
Speaker 1: that there are a bunch of jobs that go away,

939
00:57:12,800 --> 00:57:14,359
Speaker 1: and there's a bunch of new jobs that come up,

940
00:57:14,400 --> 00:57:16,120
Speaker 1: but we don't know what they all look like yet.

941
00:57:18,080 --> 00:57:21,960
Speaker 1: And you're right that we're not in so, you know,

942
00:57:22,040 --> 00:57:27,480
Speaker 1: even five years ago, I think the Democratic answer to

943
00:57:27,680 --> 00:57:30,280
Speaker 1: what the new jobs looked like was all things, you know,

944
00:57:30,640 --> 00:57:32,480
Speaker 1: it was really only a clean energy world that they

945
00:57:32,520 --> 00:57:35,840
Speaker 1: were focused on. I think the Trump answer has been

946
00:57:35,880 --> 00:57:40,120
Speaker 1: if if we get rid of illegal immigration, there'll be

947
00:57:40,120 --> 00:57:41,760
Speaker 1: a lot more jobs that they're ready for people in

948
00:57:41,800 --> 00:57:44,880
Speaker 1: the United States. Well, I don't think that's not to

949
00:57:44,920 --> 00:57:47,920
Speaker 1: be true, and it is, you know, clearly when when

950
00:57:47,960 --> 00:57:51,280
Speaker 1: the political winds shift, these clean energy jobs just totally disappear.

951
00:57:51,400 --> 00:57:54,240
Speaker 1: So I think the answer your first question come Noean's

952
00:57:54,240 --> 00:57:56,040
Speaker 1: talk about job creation at the moment. I don't think

953
00:57:56,080 --> 00:57:58,520
Speaker 1: they know where the jobs are coming from. You know,

954
00:57:58,600 --> 00:58:00,320
Speaker 1: you hear some of it on the left having to

955
00:58:00,360 --> 00:58:03,080
Speaker 1: do with, you know, some sort of energy transition jobs.

956
00:58:03,520 --> 00:58:06,640
Speaker 1: You certainly we talk about these, you know, chip manufacturing

957
00:58:06,680 --> 00:58:09,360
Speaker 1: and the and the buildouts that are necessary in order

958
00:58:09,360 --> 00:58:12,680
Speaker 1: to support artificial intelligence and sort of a temporary you know.

959
00:58:12,720 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 1: And you're hearing more and more commentators going, hey, there,

960
00:58:15,680 --> 00:58:17,400
Speaker 1: great new jobs are going to be things like being

961
00:58:17,440 --> 00:58:20,040
Speaker 1: a plumber and being an electrician, And you're like, okay,

962
00:58:20,920 --> 00:58:23,160
Speaker 1: that's the answer for some people, but that's not you know,

963
00:58:24,120 --> 00:58:26,960
Speaker 1: what's the next job revolution going to look like? Or

964
00:58:26,960 --> 00:58:30,160
Speaker 1: are we going to have to start debating a larger

965
00:58:30,200 --> 00:58:36,280
Speaker 1: social safety net, universal basic income, expanded childcare tax credit,

966
00:58:37,080 --> 00:58:40,040
Speaker 1: shorter work weeks? Right? Where is all that coming from?

967
00:58:40,600 --> 00:58:44,520
Speaker 1: So what's interesting? I is your question to me crystallizes

968
00:58:44,600 --> 00:58:51,400
Speaker 1: how why democratic messaging these days in particular feels more

969
00:58:51,520 --> 00:58:57,480
Speaker 1: reactionary rather than forward looking. Right, and the new ideas

970
00:58:57,760 --> 00:59:01,000
Speaker 1: are about job creation the way don't seem to have

971
00:59:01,040 --> 00:59:05,200
Speaker 1: the traction. I think because clean energy is not seen

972
00:59:05,240 --> 00:59:07,560
Speaker 1: as sort of embraced in that sixty to sixty five

973
00:59:07,600 --> 00:59:13,680
Speaker 1: percent larger core of the American lector, which I frankly

974
00:59:13,680 --> 00:59:18,040
Speaker 1: thought we were on our way to pre Trump. I

975
00:59:18,120 --> 00:59:20,120
Speaker 1: think that's been hard to visualize. Another issue I'd throw

976
00:59:20,120 --> 00:59:22,920
Speaker 1: out there, So when you don't have the good paying

977
00:59:23,040 --> 00:59:28,520
Speaker 1: job issue to push and talk about job creation, because

978
00:59:28,560 --> 00:59:32,320
Speaker 1: right now it feels like it's job replacement R. This

979
00:59:32,440 --> 00:59:35,840
Speaker 1: AI replacement of jobs. Then you should be talking about education.

980
00:59:36,960 --> 00:59:40,960
Speaker 1: And that's another area where Democrats are just decided not

981
00:59:41,120 --> 00:59:44,360
Speaker 1: to put education as front and center as they once did.

982
00:59:44,880 --> 00:59:48,200
Speaker 1: I would love to steer you back to my conversation

983
00:59:48,280 --> 00:59:51,000
Speaker 1: with Ram Emmanuel a couple probably about three or four

984
00:59:51,040 --> 00:59:54,919
Speaker 1: weeks ago, where he talked about this is all he's

985
00:59:54,960 --> 00:59:58,840
Speaker 1: been doing is going around the stump talking about education.

986
00:59:59,120 --> 01:00:02,800
Speaker 1: And he noted with with me how much Democrats have

987
01:00:02,840 --> 01:00:06,320
Speaker 1: sort of let that drop off the national conversation. And

988
01:00:07,320 --> 01:00:09,840
Speaker 1: you know, I think there's a reason, and I particularly

989
01:00:09,840 --> 01:00:11,920
Speaker 1: with Latino voters. I think the reason Latino voters have

990
01:00:11,960 --> 01:00:14,960
Speaker 1: been more open to Republicans is the more they talk

991
01:00:15,000 --> 01:00:17,320
Speaker 1: about education a lot more. Some of it has to

992
01:00:17,320 --> 01:00:21,040
Speaker 1: do with school choice things like that, but they're talking

993
01:00:21,040 --> 01:00:25,600
Speaker 1: about the education issue. Democrats largely have not in the

994
01:00:25,640 --> 01:00:27,680
Speaker 1: way that they even used to just ten or fifteen

995
01:00:27,720 --> 01:00:32,200
Speaker 1: years ago. Next question comes from Jim. Jim writes, Hey,

996
01:00:32,240 --> 01:00:34,640
Speaker 1: the Strait of Ormuz has such an international impact due

997
01:00:34,640 --> 01:00:36,800
Speaker 1: to a RAN disclosure of it as leverage. What else

998
01:00:36,840 --> 01:00:38,320
Speaker 1: is out there that is the equivalent of the Strait

999
01:00:38,320 --> 01:00:40,800
Speaker 1: of Ormus that other countries have potential leverage out there. Well,

1000
01:00:41,040 --> 01:00:44,280
Speaker 1: that's the Panama Canal, there's the Suez Canal. Right, you

1001
01:00:44,320 --> 01:00:47,880
Speaker 1: know you've got I think what you would argue the

1002
01:00:47,880 --> 01:00:50,840
Speaker 1: Strait of Taiwan is one of these things. So you know,

1003
01:00:51,000 --> 01:00:56,120
Speaker 1: some of these big choke points that could be the cause. Right,

1004
01:00:56,200 --> 01:01:00,360
Speaker 1: geography can have be a cause of war, simple geography.

1005
01:01:00,920 --> 01:01:04,960
Speaker 1: But it's it is. You know, we learned this in

1006
01:01:05,000 --> 01:01:07,720
Speaker 1: science fiction if you follow Star Wars, right, what really

1007
01:01:07,720 --> 01:01:12,160
Speaker 1: triggers the war between the between the Empire and the rebellion?

1008
01:01:12,200 --> 01:01:15,920
Speaker 1: It was it was trade. Right, when you block trade,

1009
01:01:15,960 --> 01:01:19,760
Speaker 1: when you limit economic opportunity or growth and whatever way

1010
01:01:19,800 --> 01:01:21,880
Speaker 1: you want to in trade is essentially one of those

1011
01:01:21,920 --> 01:01:25,800
Speaker 1: things that is usually some sort of trigger, right, you

1012
01:01:25,840 --> 01:01:28,600
Speaker 1: do an embargo, you do whatever you're doing there that

1013
01:01:28,640 --> 01:01:33,800
Speaker 1: can easily trigger a violent response. And so I think

1014
01:01:33,800 --> 01:01:37,640
Speaker 1: it's it's it's essentially the big shipping lanes are the

1015
01:01:37,640 --> 01:01:40,520
Speaker 1: big ones. You have the Panama, the Suez, and the

1016
01:01:40,520 --> 01:01:43,800
Speaker 1: Strait of Ormuz. So those those three, so Suez would

1017
01:01:43,800 --> 01:01:47,120
Speaker 1: be up there by Egypt, Panama Canals, Panama. We know

1018
01:01:48,880 --> 01:01:51,560
Speaker 1: Donald Trump was concerned that the Chinese were going to

1019
01:01:51,600 --> 01:01:53,360
Speaker 1: get control of the Panama Canal. And then if you

1020
01:01:53,360 --> 01:01:55,600
Speaker 1: have the trade of Taiwan, and there's an interview I'm

1021
01:01:55,600 --> 01:01:59,440
Speaker 1: going to have pretty soon about sort of potential preparing

1022
01:01:59,480 --> 01:02:03,040
Speaker 1: for a war with China over Taiwan, and just sort

1023
01:02:03,080 --> 01:02:12,080
Speaker 1: of how you know how those shipping those those shipping

1024
01:02:12,160 --> 01:02:16,960
Speaker 1: lanes and that part near Taiwan is a very contested space.

1025
01:02:17,040 --> 01:02:19,960
Speaker 1: So those would be the first the first that jump

1026
01:02:20,040 --> 01:02:28,160
Speaker 1: out at me, Nick Radovich or Radovic, We'll see how

1027
01:02:28,200 --> 01:02:31,120
Speaker 1: I did there, you'll tell me. I hope Nick, he goes, Hey,

1028
01:02:31,120 --> 01:02:34,000
Speaker 1: it never occurred to me that Trump conflated political asylum

1029
01:02:34,040 --> 01:02:36,120
Speaker 1: with insane asilence. I think you're right. Thanks for the

1030
01:02:36,160 --> 01:02:38,880
Speaker 1: laugh this morning. I wish I were making this up,

1031
01:02:38,880 --> 01:02:41,120
Speaker 1: but it's pretty clear to me he's doing it. I mean, look,

1032
01:02:41,160 --> 01:02:44,920
Speaker 1: we learned this right excursion incursion. I mean, you know,

1033
01:02:45,920 --> 01:02:52,360
Speaker 1: he's not the first we all I butcher, as I

1034
01:02:52,440 --> 01:02:55,160
Speaker 1: just did with your last name. I butcher pronunciations all

1035
01:02:55,200 --> 01:02:57,200
Speaker 1: the time. So I am not going to mock anybody

1036
01:02:57,440 --> 01:03:01,080
Speaker 1: that Butcher's pronunciations or anything like this. You know, I

1037
01:03:01,120 --> 01:03:06,600
Speaker 1: love somebody said this. Hey, never criticize somebody that mispronounces

1038
01:03:06,600 --> 01:03:09,760
Speaker 1: something because it means they attempted to read, and I

1039
01:03:09,840 --> 01:03:14,280
Speaker 1: thought I like that, But yeah, it's pretty it's pretty

1040
01:03:14,280 --> 01:03:21,280
Speaker 1: clear that he doesn't quite understand the word asylums. And

1041
01:03:21,360 --> 01:03:25,000
Speaker 1: I wish I were kidding, but I don't think I am.

1042
01:03:25,880 --> 01:03:28,280
Speaker 1: Robin San Francisco rights, Hey, your recent comments in democratic

1043
01:03:28,320 --> 01:03:30,040
Speaker 1: leadership got me thinking. I grew up in the UK,

1044
01:03:30,360 --> 01:03:32,160
Speaker 1: where each party is a single leader who speaks for

1045
01:03:32,200 --> 01:03:34,720
Speaker 1: it at all times. In the US, that voice is

1046
01:03:34,760 --> 01:03:37,760
Speaker 1: perpetually split between the national committees, the Senate, and the House,

1047
01:03:38,000 --> 01:03:40,800
Speaker 1: with real unity only emerging briefly when a presidential nominee

1048
01:03:40,800 --> 01:03:43,600
Speaker 1: has chosen. Since twenty fifteen, Republicans have had one dominant

1049
01:03:43,640 --> 01:03:47,040
Speaker 1: voice in Trump. Is the Democrats problem less about individual

1050
01:03:47,160 --> 01:03:50,240
Speaker 1: leaders and more about a structural inability to consolidate messaging?

1051
01:03:50,280 --> 01:03:54,840
Speaker 1: And if so, is there any realistic fix? Robin San Francisco, Well,

1052
01:03:54,840 --> 01:03:57,360
Speaker 1: I'd argue anytime a party is out of power for

1053
01:03:57,400 --> 01:03:59,720
Speaker 1: a period of time, or certainly when they lose a

1054
01:03:59,760 --> 01:04:03,000
Speaker 1: well known leader, they struggle like I so take you know,

1055
01:04:03,120 --> 01:04:07,080
Speaker 1: Democrats were you know, there were sort of a series

1056
01:04:07,120 --> 01:04:09,880
Speaker 1: of singular Republicans that spoke for the party at Nixon

1057
01:04:10,280 --> 01:04:14,080
Speaker 1: then Nixon transitioned to Reagan. You had the Kennedy Kennedy

1058
01:04:14,080 --> 01:04:16,040
Speaker 1: and Johnson in the sixties, and then you sort of

1059
01:04:16,400 --> 01:04:20,320
Speaker 1: Carter never really grabbed that mantle, and so that there

1060
01:04:20,480 --> 01:04:24,080
Speaker 1: was you know so, But you could argue who was

1061
01:04:24,120 --> 01:04:26,720
Speaker 1: the leader of the Republican Party during the Obama era. Right,

1062
01:04:27,320 --> 01:04:31,840
Speaker 1: they were constantly searching for one. It really wasn't McCain.

1063
01:04:31,880 --> 01:04:34,600
Speaker 1: If it was, they would have had an immigration deal. Right,

1064
01:04:34,640 --> 01:04:37,760
Speaker 1: McCain was leading in somebody's leading the party down that road,

1065
01:04:37,760 --> 01:04:40,120
Speaker 1: but it got him nowhere. Right, Romney wasn't really a

1066
01:04:40,160 --> 01:04:43,160
Speaker 1: leader of the party, ended up the nominee. So I

1067
01:04:43,200 --> 01:04:47,120
Speaker 1: think in this case it's this is when you when

1068
01:04:47,160 --> 01:04:52,760
Speaker 1: you when you get a presidency for two terms, a

1069
01:04:52,800 --> 01:04:55,240
Speaker 1: lot of times you know you have that, and then

1070
01:04:55,320 --> 01:04:58,160
Speaker 1: it's the other party that is constantly looking for a

1071
01:04:58,200 --> 01:05:01,920
Speaker 1: back looking how having the presidency makes it look like

1072
01:05:01,960 --> 01:05:04,560
Speaker 1: your party has a leader. When you don't have the presidency,

1073
01:05:04,600 --> 01:05:07,920
Speaker 1: it looks like everything is split into different factions because

1074
01:05:07,960 --> 01:05:12,480
Speaker 1: everything is split into different factions. Right, Usually somebody that

1075
01:05:12,520 --> 01:05:14,960
Speaker 1: successfully gets elected president means they've figured out how to

1076
01:05:14,960 --> 01:05:17,960
Speaker 1: bring their party together, create a coalition that might be

1077
01:05:18,000 --> 01:05:20,480
Speaker 1: slightly bigger than their party. Now, I would argue that

1078
01:05:20,600 --> 01:05:23,480
Speaker 1: neither that. Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris have

1079
01:05:23,600 --> 01:05:26,360
Speaker 1: struggled to create a coalition that's bigger than their party.

1080
01:05:26,640 --> 01:05:29,160
Speaker 1: Barack Obama created a coalition that was bigger than his party.

1081
01:05:29,360 --> 01:05:31,560
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton created a coalition that was slightly bigger than

1082
01:05:31,600 --> 01:05:34,480
Speaker 1: his party. Ronald Reagan created a coalition as bigger as party.

1083
01:05:35,080 --> 01:05:37,560
Speaker 1: When you hit that point, I think that's when you

1084
01:05:38,160 --> 01:05:42,880
Speaker 1: feel like you can put your party together. And that's why,

1085
01:05:42,960 --> 01:05:46,880
Speaker 1: you know, what direction does the party take in choosing

1086
01:05:46,880 --> 01:05:50,920
Speaker 1: its next presidential nominee? And then when that person is chosen,

1087
01:05:51,360 --> 01:05:53,920
Speaker 1: how did they choose to lead? Right? Are they going

1088
01:05:53,960 --> 01:05:56,440
Speaker 1: to try to be a sixty percent president or are

1089
01:05:56,480 --> 01:05:58,120
Speaker 1: they going to try to be a fifty percent plus

1090
01:05:58,120 --> 01:06:01,520
Speaker 1: one president. There's a difference. Right, If you're striving for

1091
01:06:01,560 --> 01:06:05,280
Speaker 1: sixty percent approval, you're going to disappoint your base more

1092
01:06:05,320 --> 01:06:09,560
Speaker 1: often than the base would like. If it's fifty percent

1093
01:06:09,600 --> 01:06:11,720
Speaker 1: plus one, then you're going to lean more heavily on

1094
01:06:11,720 --> 01:06:14,200
Speaker 1: your base, and you're essentially going to put the center

1095
01:06:14,800 --> 01:06:18,320
Speaker 1: into a put them in a tough position to make

1096
01:06:18,360 --> 01:06:21,440
Speaker 1: a choice between something that goes too far in one

1097
01:06:21,440 --> 01:06:23,680
Speaker 1: direction versus something that goes too far in the other direction.

1098
01:06:31,080 --> 01:06:33,080
Speaker 1: But that's why we have elections, and that's what I

1099
01:06:33,080 --> 01:06:34,720
Speaker 1: think we're going to learn a little bit in twenty

1100
01:06:34,760 --> 01:06:37,560
Speaker 1: six and a lot of it in twenty eight. Next

1101
01:06:37,680 --> 01:06:43,000
Speaker 1: question does not have a name on It looks like

1102
01:06:43,040 --> 01:06:47,720
Speaker 1: it's from anonymous, but I'll read it anyway. I've been

1103
01:06:47,720 --> 01:06:50,440
Speaker 1: thinking about whether there should be a constitutional amendment requiring

1104
01:06:50,440 --> 01:06:52,520
Speaker 1: that any presidential pardon be approved by a two thirds

1105
01:06:52,600 --> 01:06:54,960
Speaker 1: vote of the Senate Judiciary Committee, as a simple check

1106
01:06:54,960 --> 01:06:57,600
Speaker 1: on that power and to prevent potential abuse, especially in

1107
01:06:57,680 --> 01:06:59,960
Speaker 1: cases involving family members are close associates. Do you think

1108
01:07:00,080 --> 01:07:02,840
Speaker 1: a reform like that is realistic or constitutional? Is there

1109
01:07:02,880 --> 01:07:06,120
Speaker 1: any serious discussion in legal or political circles about putting

1110
01:07:06,200 --> 01:07:11,080
Speaker 1: limits on presidential pardon power? Well, I hope you checked

1111
01:07:11,080 --> 01:07:17,360
Speaker 1: out the interview I had with Jolly Johnny Congressman Johnny Olicheski. God,

1112
01:07:17,360 --> 01:07:20,320
Speaker 1: I hope I got that right. Anyway, Johnny O Baltimore,

1113
01:07:20,320 --> 01:07:26,040
Speaker 1: congressman who introduced the has introduced a constitutional amendment to

1114
01:07:26,280 --> 01:07:27,960
Speaker 1: see if you can get Congress to pass. It has

1115
01:07:28,120 --> 01:07:31,080
Speaker 1: at least one Republican co sponsor, Don Bacon, and it

1116
01:07:31,120 --> 01:07:34,360
Speaker 1: is a it's similar to what you're describing. It's essentially

1117
01:07:34,800 --> 01:07:37,520
Speaker 1: the ability for Congress to nullify a presidential pardon. Now

1118
01:07:37,520 --> 01:07:41,800
Speaker 1: it would take you know, two essentially two thirds. Essentially,

1119
01:07:41,840 --> 01:07:44,600
Speaker 1: this what it takes to overwrite a presidential veto is

1120
01:07:44,600 --> 01:07:47,160
Speaker 1: what it would take to overwrite a presidential pardon. But

1121
01:07:47,400 --> 01:07:50,960
Speaker 1: just putting that check in there, I think it's a

1122
01:07:51,120 --> 01:07:53,600
Speaker 1: I think, you know, I kind of like where you're going.

1123
01:07:54,320 --> 01:07:55,920
Speaker 1: I think we should have a pardon board. I think

1124
01:07:55,920 --> 01:07:58,440
Speaker 1: we should even just get rid of the singular power

1125
01:07:59,000 --> 01:08:00,880
Speaker 1: that the president has to do this. I think it

1126
01:08:00,880 --> 01:08:03,240
Speaker 1: should have been a board from the very beginning, and

1127
01:08:03,280 --> 01:08:05,200
Speaker 1: it has always been one of these head scratches to me,

1128
01:08:05,360 --> 01:08:09,080
Speaker 1: like why did the founders, who were revolting against the

1129
01:08:09,160 --> 01:08:14,280
Speaker 1: monarch give the president a power that only a monarch

1130
01:08:14,360 --> 01:08:18,840
Speaker 1: used to have. So the point is is that you're

1131
01:08:18,880 --> 01:08:23,679
Speaker 1: going to need a constitutional amendment in order to notify

1132
01:08:23,720 --> 01:08:25,680
Speaker 1: a presidential pardon. So it does have to be a

1133
01:08:25,680 --> 01:08:28,439
Speaker 1: constitutional amendment or else it wouldn't be constitutional. I know

1134
01:08:28,479 --> 01:08:32,439
Speaker 1: that's redundant to say it that way, but basically, Congress

1135
01:08:32,479 --> 01:08:36,080
Speaker 1: could pass no law without a constitutional amendment that would

1136
01:08:36,120 --> 01:08:42,320
Speaker 1: have any impact on denying a presidential art Next question

1137
01:08:45,320 --> 01:08:47,439
Speaker 1: another one here. I'm not one hundred percent sure we

1138
01:08:48,360 --> 01:08:52,920
Speaker 1: have I don't think we have a name on this

1139
01:08:52,960 --> 01:08:56,680
Speaker 1: one either. More anonymous question. I like it, Hey, I've

1140
01:08:56,680 --> 01:08:58,360
Speaker 1: been a long time listener since your days that Meet

1141
01:08:58,400 --> 01:09:00,760
Speaker 1: the Press. Appreciate it. Love your podcast. Always listen to

1142
01:09:00,800 --> 01:09:03,800
Speaker 1: it during my walks or on long car trips. I know,

1143
01:09:03,880 --> 01:09:05,760
Speaker 1: and I keep getting longer for you, so you're gonna

1144
01:09:05,760 --> 01:09:08,920
Speaker 1: need to do longer card trips. Two things. I think

1145
01:09:08,920 --> 01:09:11,880
Speaker 1: you often call Michigan Senate hopeful Mallory McMorrow by the

1146
01:09:11,920 --> 01:09:14,080
Speaker 1: wrong first name. I think you're right. I don't say Mallory.

1147
01:09:15,160 --> 01:09:17,360
Speaker 1: I call her Molly McMorrow. You are a hundred percent

1148
01:09:17,439 --> 01:09:19,880
Speaker 1: right my error. Thank you for pointing that out. I

1149
01:09:19,960 --> 01:09:21,960
Speaker 1: think she has a bright future in Michigan national politics.

1150
01:09:21,960 --> 01:09:24,439
Speaker 1: I do do. In fact, I think she's if she

1151
01:09:24,560 --> 01:09:29,400
Speaker 1: wins the primary, she wins the Senate race. I think

1152
01:09:29,439 --> 01:09:32,559
Speaker 1: i'd read it's interesting she seems to be the Goldilocks candidate.

1153
01:09:32,640 --> 01:09:34,200
Speaker 1: You know, you have three candidates. Don't mean to like

1154
01:09:34,360 --> 01:09:36,400
Speaker 1: beat up that thing, right, you have one it appears

1155
01:09:36,439 --> 01:09:38,160
Speaker 1: a bit too progressive, one of it appears a bit

1156
01:09:38,160 --> 01:09:42,479
Speaker 1: too establishment. And I think Mallory I keep calling her Molly,

1157
01:09:42,520 --> 01:09:45,840
Speaker 1: and thank you for fixing that is doing a pretty

1158
01:09:45,840 --> 01:09:47,760
Speaker 1: good jobs putting the difference. Sometimes you just put the

1159
01:09:47,760 --> 01:09:51,280
Speaker 1: difference and you can disappoint everybody. In this case, I

1160
01:09:51,280 --> 01:09:53,360
Speaker 1: think it's going to work. Second, I love your interview

1161
01:09:53,360 --> 01:09:55,920
Speaker 1: with Florida attorney John Morgan. Yes, mister Morgan and Morgan,

1162
01:09:56,040 --> 01:09:57,559
Speaker 1: you think Morgan will pull the trigger and run for

1163
01:09:57,560 --> 01:09:59,960
Speaker 1: Florida governor's independent It seems like we are too close

1164
01:10:00,080 --> 01:10:02,519
Speaker 1: to the election if he jumps in this slate. Mike Duggan,

1165
01:10:02,560 --> 01:10:05,040
Speaker 1: an independent former Democratic mayor of Detroit, has been running

1166
01:10:05,080 --> 01:10:07,799
Speaker 1: for Michigan gov since he was still in the mayor's office.

1167
01:10:07,960 --> 01:10:10,000
Speaker 1: During your interview, Morgan seemed like he was all in

1168
01:10:10,040 --> 01:10:11,800
Speaker 1: on the race for Florida governor. I think voters in

1169
01:10:11,800 --> 01:10:14,639
Speaker 1: Florida are looking for something different, especially after two terms

1170
01:10:14,640 --> 01:10:16,479
Speaker 1: of Ron DeSantis. Thanks for all you do. I look

1171
01:10:16,479 --> 01:10:18,360
Speaker 1: forward to listening to every episode you drop. I appreciate

1172
01:10:18,400 --> 01:10:22,080
Speaker 1: you asking. Look. I think it's pretty clear and I've

1173
01:10:22,120 --> 01:10:25,160
Speaker 1: had I've had more conversations with him offline and with

1174
01:10:25,200 --> 01:10:30,439
Speaker 1: people close to John Morgan that he's you know, he's

1175
01:10:31,960 --> 01:10:34,799
Speaker 1: he's still open to doing it. The filing deadline hasn't passed,

1176
01:10:34,840 --> 01:10:36,439
Speaker 1: and he probably is one of the few with the

1177
01:10:36,520 --> 01:10:39,360
Speaker 1: resources if he chooses to do it, could still do it.

1178
01:10:40,000 --> 01:10:42,479
Speaker 1: I think he's skeptical that the Democratic brand is strong

1179
01:10:42,600 --> 01:10:44,640
Speaker 1: enough to win no matter even if they nominate a

1180
01:10:44,680 --> 01:10:48,320
Speaker 1: former Republican. I you know, we now have a Democratic

1181
01:10:48,360 --> 01:10:51,840
Speaker 1: primary between the mayor of Orlando, Jerry Demings, and the

1182
01:10:53,560 --> 01:10:56,080
Speaker 1: it's Orange County mayor actually sorry, which is the county

1183
01:10:56,080 --> 01:11:04,120
Speaker 1: that encompasses Orlando, and or Republican Congressman David Jolly. And

1184
01:11:04,160 --> 01:11:09,720
Speaker 1: so we'll see how that goes. And you know, I'm

1185
01:11:09,800 --> 01:11:13,160
Speaker 1: still waiting for the Republican primary to get more competitive

1186
01:11:13,200 --> 01:11:15,599
Speaker 1: than people realize. I mean, Byron Donald's has a massive

1187
01:11:15,600 --> 01:11:19,400
Speaker 1: amount of money, Trump's endorsement, it's all very strong. But

1188
01:11:19,439 --> 01:11:25,000
Speaker 1: it's clear Governor DeSantis would like somebody else. And you know,

1189
01:11:25,080 --> 01:11:28,439
Speaker 1: I'm not sure, you know, I don't think Desantas is

1190
01:11:28,479 --> 01:11:31,679
Speaker 1: alone in wanting somebody else. He's just the most vocal

1191
01:11:31,800 --> 01:11:35,559
Speaker 1: about wanting something somebody else. But the candidates that have

1192
01:11:35,600 --> 01:11:38,920
Speaker 1: popped up are not exactly don't look like winners, and

1193
01:11:39,280 --> 01:11:43,920
Speaker 1: I can't imagine would do that. So but I'm I

1194
01:11:43,960 --> 01:11:48,000
Speaker 1: think this is a more fluid state politically than than

1195
01:11:48,160 --> 01:11:54,360
Speaker 1: folks realize. But I don't think the Democratic Party has

1196
01:11:54,520 --> 01:11:57,720
Speaker 1: is putting in the resources to actually make the state

1197
01:11:57,760 --> 01:12:00,559
Speaker 1: competitive on a state wide level. So then the question

1198
01:12:00,640 --> 01:12:02,760
Speaker 1: is could I do think this is a case where

1199
01:12:02,760 --> 01:12:04,880
Speaker 1: a third party candidate could really make a lot of noise,

1200
01:12:04,920 --> 01:12:07,240
Speaker 1: because I think there is kind of a hunger. Florida

1201
01:12:07,320 --> 01:12:10,519
Speaker 1: is a I think a right leaning state, but more

1202
01:12:10,520 --> 01:12:13,800
Speaker 1: in the libertarian sense, meaning that there's a you know

1203
01:12:13,840 --> 01:12:16,680
Speaker 1: that when the when the Republicans get too sort of

1204
01:12:18,560 --> 01:12:20,960
Speaker 1: you know, the conservative movement that Trump has led and

1205
01:12:21,120 --> 01:12:23,880
Speaker 1: arguably DeSantis has led, has not been small government at all.

1206
01:12:23,880 --> 01:12:26,880
Speaker 1: It's been government involved in your lives almost too much, right.

1207
01:12:26,920 --> 01:12:30,639
Speaker 1: It's really pushed away the libertarian wing of the Republican Party,

1208
01:12:30,680 --> 01:12:32,920
Speaker 1: and that's why you're seeing so many I think the

1209
01:12:32,960 --> 01:12:35,800
Speaker 1: libertarians be less comfortable with the right than they've been

1210
01:12:35,840 --> 01:12:42,640
Speaker 1: in a long time because of this decision by some

1211
01:12:42,680 --> 01:12:46,400
Speaker 1: of these Republican leaders to have government more involved in

1212
01:12:46,439 --> 01:12:51,160
Speaker 1: your life, using government as a weapon to get involved

1213
01:12:51,160 --> 01:12:54,559
Speaker 1: in America's culture and things like this. So I don't

1214
01:12:54,960 --> 01:12:58,120
Speaker 1: disagree that the I think they I think the appetite

1215
01:12:58,200 --> 01:13:01,479
Speaker 1: is there, and I certainly think it's a right I

1216
01:13:02,640 --> 01:13:04,800
Speaker 1: Morgan is the right guy, but he might be a

1217
01:13:04,840 --> 01:13:07,240
Speaker 1: few years too old. I mean, what you really need

1218
01:13:07,320 --> 01:13:09,680
Speaker 1: is a reincarnation of Lotton Childs, who while it was

1219
01:13:09,720 --> 01:13:11,800
Speaker 1: a Democrat then I think today would be sort of

1220
01:13:13,040 --> 01:13:15,719
Speaker 1: an independent of some sort, you know, sort of more

1221
01:13:16,040 --> 01:13:18,120
Speaker 1: probably closer. I mean John Morgan clearly is more of

1222
01:13:18,160 --> 01:13:21,200
Speaker 1: a Clinton Democrat, more of a Loton Child's Democrat. I

1223
01:13:21,240 --> 01:13:26,200
Speaker 1: think that's that could work, right, you know, sort of

1224
01:13:26,280 --> 01:13:29,240
Speaker 1: somebody out of the somebody out of the head of

1225
01:13:29,439 --> 01:13:32,160
Speaker 1: Carl Hyson, if you will, of how Carl Huson would

1226
01:13:32,479 --> 01:13:36,519
Speaker 1: design an independent governor. Sorry, I'm a huge Hyasin fan

1227
01:13:36,960 --> 01:13:41,400
Speaker 1: of his novels, have some strong feelings about Decker, and

1228
01:13:41,439 --> 01:13:42,920
Speaker 1: I'm not going to get into him now because I

1229
01:13:42,920 --> 01:13:47,280
Speaker 1: don't want to derail my conversation, uh and derail this answer.

1230
01:13:48,320 --> 01:13:53,080
Speaker 1: But you know, I'm you know, look, I've been I've

1231
01:13:53,120 --> 01:13:58,160
Speaker 1: been dancing around this moment of looking for you know,

1232
01:13:58,320 --> 01:14:00,880
Speaker 1: I do think voters are looking for or an alternative

1233
01:14:00,920 --> 01:14:05,360
Speaker 1: to this, to this NonStop polarization that we're in. I

1234
01:14:05,560 --> 01:14:08,599
Speaker 1: just don't know if there's credible third party or credible

1235
01:14:08,600 --> 01:14:11,400
Speaker 1: independent actors yet that are ready to take the jump.

1236
01:14:11,520 --> 01:14:13,880
Speaker 1: I think Morgan has a lot of the tools. You

1237
01:14:13,960 --> 01:14:15,840
Speaker 1: need a little bit of fame, a lot of bit

1238
01:14:15,880 --> 01:14:21,559
Speaker 1: of money. But he's got to have the ambition. And

1239
01:14:21,600 --> 01:14:24,360
Speaker 1: I actually don't know if he's got the ambition. I

1240
01:14:24,360 --> 01:14:31,040
Speaker 1: think he'd I think he'd be just as just as happy, uh,

1241
01:14:31,560 --> 01:14:34,680
Speaker 1: getting getting everything legalized in Florida, if you know what

1242
01:14:34,720 --> 01:14:39,479
Speaker 1: I mean, and focusing on that and enjoying a little

1243
01:14:39,479 --> 01:14:43,840
Speaker 1: bit of retirement. But I do think there is You're

1244
01:14:43,880 --> 01:14:47,920
Speaker 1: not wrong. He is probably somebody similar to him as

1245
01:14:47,960 --> 01:14:49,640
Speaker 1: the type of person that can break through. He's got

1246
01:14:49,680 --> 01:14:51,240
Speaker 1: a little bit of He got a little bit of

1247
01:14:51,280 --> 01:14:54,240
Speaker 1: Jesse venturing him. And I say that as a compliment,

1248
01:14:55,080 --> 01:14:59,200
Speaker 1: and that's why he might just be just be quirky

1249
01:14:59,280 --> 01:15:04,240
Speaker 1: enough good in that Florida man way to gain traction.

1250
01:15:04,680 --> 01:15:06,599
Speaker 1: But you got to have the ambition to do it.

1251
01:15:06,720 --> 01:15:10,360
Speaker 1: And I'm not one hundred percent sure he's all in

1252
01:15:10,400 --> 01:15:13,240
Speaker 1: on that. I think if he was, he'd already be there.

1253
01:15:14,479 --> 01:15:17,320
Speaker 1: All right, I only got two more questions here, so

1254
01:15:17,400 --> 01:15:21,320
Speaker 1: let's take them. Let's finish it up. Greg from Central

1255
01:15:21,320 --> 01:15:23,559
Speaker 1: Illinois riots Hey. Last week, I was an election judge

1256
01:15:23,600 --> 01:15:25,519
Speaker 1: in Central Illinois. I've been doing it for years, so

1257
01:15:25,560 --> 01:15:27,720
Speaker 1: I was not surprised by the loan number. We only

1258
01:15:27,760 --> 01:15:29,400
Speaker 1: had less than one hundred and fifty people vote, But

1259
01:15:29,520 --> 01:15:31,680
Speaker 1: before the poll opened we were discussing if it was

1260
01:15:31,720 --> 01:15:34,479
Speaker 1: going to be low since it happened, since it happened

1261
01:15:34,520 --> 01:15:36,599
Speaker 1: to be Saint Patrick's day. My question would be if

1262
01:15:36,600 --> 01:15:38,920
Speaker 1: we had open primaries where the top two vote getters

1263
01:15:39,120 --> 01:15:41,000
Speaker 1: have to face off with each other, would that be

1264
01:15:41,040 --> 01:15:43,599
Speaker 1: a solution. The other thing is I noticed on party

1265
01:15:43,640 --> 01:15:46,479
Speaker 1: ballots only I had one candidate for multiple seats, and

1266
01:15:46,520 --> 01:15:49,280
Speaker 1: the other party had many seats with no candidate. Thank

1267
01:15:49,320 --> 01:15:52,360
Speaker 1: you Greig from Central Illinois. Look, I do think putting

1268
01:15:52,400 --> 01:15:56,680
Speaker 1: everybody on the same ballot top too. Maybe it's the

1269
01:15:56,720 --> 01:15:59,200
Speaker 1: top four and then there's a general election, and then

1270
01:15:59,240 --> 01:16:01,439
Speaker 1: if nobody gets fifty percent, there's a runoff from there.

1271
01:16:02,280 --> 01:16:07,760
Speaker 1: But anything that engages more of the electorate I think

1272
01:16:07,840 --> 01:16:11,519
Speaker 1: is healthier for the democracy. Anything that limits the number

1273
01:16:11,560 --> 01:16:14,120
Speaker 1: of people who can participate in election is just not

1274
01:16:14,240 --> 01:16:18,160
Speaker 1: fully democratic heart style. All right. I'm not saying a

1275
01:16:18,280 --> 01:16:21,080
Speaker 1: republic a club called the Republican Party and a club

1276
01:16:21,120 --> 01:16:24,120
Speaker 1: called the Democratic Party can't decide who their preferences are,

1277
01:16:24,240 --> 01:16:26,880
Speaker 1: can't say who they would like to see. But I

1278
01:16:26,920 --> 01:16:30,640
Speaker 1: think them deciding who gets to participate in election, and

1279
01:16:30,680 --> 01:16:33,240
Speaker 1: that you get to keep other people out, and especially

1280
01:16:33,360 --> 01:16:35,240
Speaker 1: using the power of the state to keep other people

1281
01:16:35,280 --> 01:16:37,320
Speaker 1: out just because they didn't choose to become members of

1282
01:16:37,320 --> 01:16:43,280
Speaker 1: a private institution feels frankly unconstitutional and certainly feels undemocratic.

1283
01:16:44,400 --> 01:16:46,479
Speaker 1: So I am a huge advocate of this. I'm a

1284
01:16:46,560 --> 01:16:51,080
Speaker 1: huge advocate of all party primaries, all open primaries. One look,

1285
01:16:51,479 --> 01:16:54,320
Speaker 1: I think the ideal situation is that we should be

1286
01:16:54,360 --> 01:16:58,120
Speaker 1: registered voters heartstop. We should not have to pick a

1287
01:16:58,120 --> 01:17:03,479
Speaker 1: political party and tell the government where any government, local, state,

1288
01:17:03,640 --> 01:17:06,400
Speaker 1: or federal, what party I choose to become a member of.

1289
01:17:07,640 --> 01:17:10,280
Speaker 1: I don't understand why that has to be part of

1290
01:17:10,320 --> 01:17:15,439
Speaker 1: the deal in order to participate in a primary election.

1291
01:17:17,920 --> 01:17:20,599
Speaker 1: So it is I think if you want to if

1292
01:17:20,600 --> 01:17:22,040
Speaker 1: we're trying to decide who gets to be in a

1293
01:17:22,040 --> 01:17:25,439
Speaker 1: general election ballot, everybody should have access to that general

1294
01:17:25,479 --> 01:17:28,080
Speaker 1: election ballot. You know, maybe it's just some signatures you

1295
01:17:28,120 --> 01:17:32,080
Speaker 1: need to get on it, you know, but it is

1296
01:17:33,200 --> 01:17:36,280
Speaker 1: it is. I think how we do it now is

1297
01:17:36,400 --> 01:17:41,760
Speaker 1: more undemocratic than we want to admit, and it would

1298
01:17:41,760 --> 01:17:44,800
Speaker 1: solve this problem of of what you're talking about. Certain

1299
01:17:44,960 --> 01:17:49,200
Speaker 1: certain races not having any candidates in it. And this

1300
01:17:49,280 --> 01:17:54,680
Speaker 1: is you know, this is what If we want to

1301
01:17:54,720 --> 01:17:57,280
Speaker 1: refresh this democracy, we need to allow more people to

1302
01:17:57,640 --> 01:18:00,280
Speaker 1: We need to make it some more people have skin

1303
01:18:00,360 --> 01:18:03,720
Speaker 1: in the game, and more people participate. There's your Monday episode.

1304
01:18:03,720 --> 01:18:07,080
Speaker 1: This is a huge holiday week for many people of faith.

1305
01:18:07,320 --> 01:18:11,960
Speaker 1: We've got Passover later this week, Good Friday, Easter coming

1306
01:18:12,040 --> 01:18:13,679
Speaker 1: up at the weekend. I know a lot of people

1307
01:18:13,680 --> 01:18:15,960
Speaker 1: are gonna be spending time with family. I will try

1308
01:18:15,960 --> 01:18:19,000
Speaker 1: not to overload your feed this week. I want to

1309
01:18:19,040 --> 01:18:22,360
Speaker 1: be mindful of all the time you're gonna be spending

1310
01:18:22,400 --> 01:18:23,960
Speaker 1: with family, but I'm also mindful that you're going to

1311
01:18:24,000 --> 01:18:27,439
Speaker 1: want to put your headphones in and listen to something

1312
01:18:27,520 --> 01:18:32,439
Speaker 1: while you maybe take a break from family. Anyway, with that,

1313
01:18:33,240 --> 01:18:35,720
Speaker 1: I'll see in forty eight hours. Thanks for listening, and

1314
01:18:35,800 --> 01:18:36,679
Speaker 1: until we upload again.