WEBVTT - Emergency Pod: Is It All Over for Bitcoin? 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:17.160 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:21.960 Welcome to a bonus episode of Merin Talks Money, the 0:00:22.000 --> 0:00:25.000 podcast in which people who know the markets explain the markets. 0:00:25.079 --> 0:00:27.280 I am mere in Sunset Web. I am just back 0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:29.960 from a long trip home from Japan with me today, 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:33.199 of course, is author of the award winning Money Distilled newsletter, 0:00:33.320 --> 0:00:37.080 John step Back Hi John, Hi, Mel John. I've been 0:00:37.120 --> 0:00:41.000 away for literally a couple of days, and everything seems 0:00:41.040 --> 0:00:43.200 to have gone completely nuts while I've been away. 0:00:43.560 --> 0:00:47.319 A bitcoin you should never never leave the country. It's 0:00:47.400 --> 0:00:49.639 usually just go to ports without you. 0:00:49.960 --> 0:00:52.599 It's usually when you go away that the market crishes 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:54.680 one way or another. We've had this joke before you 0:00:54.720 --> 0:00:56.840 go on holiday to Portugal, come back, everything fall and 0:00:56.880 --> 0:01:01.120 twenty percent. But this time bitcoin really really has come 0:01:01.160 --> 0:01:02.720 off a lot. So it's down quite a lot in 0:01:02.760 --> 0:01:04.360 the last couple of days. It's down to twenty five 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:06.720 percent year to date, forty percent of six months, and 0:01:06.840 --> 0:01:10.440 close to fifty percent off the high it hit last 0:01:10.560 --> 0:01:12.840 year one hundred and twenty five thousand dollars. We went 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:14.720 down to sixty thousand dollars at some point, and I 0:01:14.760 --> 0:01:16.920 think as we speak it's bounced quite a lot back 0:01:17.040 --> 0:01:20.520 up to the mid sixties. But this is not what 0:01:20.800 --> 0:01:22.800 people expected. And I think one thing we can say 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:24.760 for absolutely sure at this point that bitcoin is not 0:01:25.080 --> 0:01:27.680 quite the same thing as gold. Am I ride around 0:01:27.720 --> 0:01:28.679 my absolutely right? 0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:32.600 Oh, I think that's fear. That's definitely fear. 0:01:32.880 --> 0:01:33.440 Yeah. 0:01:33.480 --> 0:01:36.520 Well, it's what's interesting is Bitcoin doesn't seem to have 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:39.720 participated and they can a slightly manic run up that 0:01:39.840 --> 0:01:42.920 someone gold had, but it does seem to be participating 0:01:42.959 --> 0:01:47.280 in the very mini rundown that they've been harving. So 0:01:47.319 --> 0:01:49.040 I'm curious sis to why that is so. 0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:51.240 Am I? And it seems really that it's not so 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:53.480 much that is moving around the place with gold, but 0:01:53.520 --> 0:01:55.720 it's moving around the place with software, because it kind 0:01:55.720 --> 0:01:58.760 of is software anyway. As you and I know nothing 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:01.720 about these things and are inbstantly permanently wrong on bitcoin, 0:02:01.760 --> 0:02:04.760 we've actually invited someone on who does know something about 0:02:04.760 --> 0:02:07.720 bitcoin and how it all works. We've got on Charlie 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:11.079 Morris's on the line to try and help us make 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:13.079 sense of all this. He is the founder and chairman 0:02:13.120 --> 0:02:15.679 of investment research from bite Tree, and he has been 0:02:15.720 --> 0:02:17.880 on with us a couple of times before, so regular 0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:21.280 sins will note him. Well, Charlie, welcome to Marrin Talks Money. 0:02:21.440 --> 0:02:25.720 Thanks for the imitation, Right, Charlie, what's going on? 0:02:26.800 --> 0:02:29.240 Do you want to talk about bitcoin? I mean, yes, 0:02:29.320 --> 0:02:31.440 I do the best performing essay in the history of 0:02:31.440 --> 0:02:33.639 the world. Let's start the Yes. You know, it comes 0:02:33.680 --> 0:02:36.080 to market at a very low market gap that's been 0:02:36.360 --> 0:02:38.000 I think it was around one hundred and fifty thousand 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:41.720 dollars gap in twenty ten when it started trading about 0:02:41.760 --> 0:02:45.360 six cents. We can on ways since then, and we 0:02:45.440 --> 0:02:48.120 have these things called cycles. It goes a lot, then 0:02:48.120 --> 0:02:49.799 he goes down a lot, and we've just in the 0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:52.639 last twenty four hours or in baut the last a 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:55.639 few days, experienced one of the down and loss. 0:02:56.520 --> 0:02:58.560 Okay, so why does it go down a lot? I 0:02:58.560 --> 0:03:01.000 mean we're talking a lot. And there'll be a lot 0:03:01.040 --> 0:03:03.440 of people out there who caught this wave up, having 0:03:03.520 --> 0:03:05.840 missed previous waves up. They'll have ridden it up to 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:07.920 one hundred and twenty one hundred and twenty five. Some 0:03:07.960 --> 0:03:10.280 people will have bought it up there. I mean, it 0:03:10.360 --> 0:03:12.320 goes not alone here. People have done this with gold 0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:16.040 and silver as well. So given that it's not moving 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:18.160 with gold and silver. It's not the same asset. And 0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:19.640 this is one of the things we've talked about with 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:21.839 you a lot, that it is a very different type 0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:25.760 of asset. What is it that is driving this collapse? 0:03:26.680 --> 0:03:29.200 So they're likely things. I mean, I've always said that, 0:03:29.280 --> 0:03:33.520 you know, gold's a sort of a macro assets and 0:03:33.560 --> 0:03:36.520 it's a real world asset, and bitcoin it's a digital 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:39.800 world asset. I've always had high correlation with tech. I 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:42.600 used to highlight that with social media stocks, because if 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:45.440 you think about it, you're sharing pictures of cats and 0:03:45.480 --> 0:03:48.840 funny jokes on the Internet and social media. It's got 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:52.960 that similar to exchanging value. I mean, after all, its 0:03:53.000 --> 0:03:57.119 Internet activity, and Bitcoin's always loved the idea of more 0:03:57.200 --> 0:04:00.040 activity and the more people in the network for engaging 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:02.440 in this space at the higher the price would go. 0:04:03.000 --> 0:04:05.520 And I guess the Internet's kind of topped out, you know, 0:04:05.600 --> 0:04:07.880 last October. I think there's a pretty strong view that, 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:10.880 actually I said it at the Money Week conference in 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:13.680 October that the bitcoin at the nastack had beat and 0:04:13.720 --> 0:04:18.280 it does look increasingly like that. And bitcoin really is 0:04:18.480 --> 0:04:20.880 the sort of next Nastak on steroids, a bit like 0:04:21.760 --> 0:04:24.280 what silver is to gold. So I think that's a 0:04:24.360 --> 0:04:30.080 very simple explanation of where we are. And let's strong there. 0:04:30.080 --> 0:04:31.360 There's so many ways we can go here. 0:04:33.120 --> 0:04:34.159 Which way do you want to go? 0:04:34.839 --> 0:04:38.200 Well for your cycle content? You know? 0:04:38.360 --> 0:04:43.800 Regulation, I think quantum's actually interesting because that cost to 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:47.080 me there because this thing where people are worried about 0:04:47.120 --> 0:04:50.680 the rise of quantum computing and the quantum computing might 0:04:50.880 --> 0:04:57.640 somehow destroy or render worthless the cryptography that protects bitcoin 0:04:57.680 --> 0:05:01.760 and other cryptocurncies. I mean, how I kid it is 0:05:01.800 --> 0:05:05.280 that because I've had different things about quantum and whether 0:05:05.360 --> 0:05:06.680 that's actually correct or not. 0:05:06.800 --> 0:05:09.479 Yeah, well it looks flirstly disclosed. I'm not a computer 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:12.880 science expert, but I do try to follow these things. 0:05:13.480 --> 0:05:16.400 And the thing about quantum is you've got very very 0:05:16.440 --> 0:05:20.280 powerful computing and I guess that the threat is that 0:05:20.800 --> 0:05:26.440 if you could guess private keys at are sufficiently high rate, 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:28.800 then you'll be able to break into the system. Now, 0:05:28.839 --> 0:05:31.760 the security has been increased in the over the years, 0:05:32.160 --> 0:05:35.960 and the simple way to make your system quantum proof 0:05:36.040 --> 0:05:38.840 is to is to the tech. You's forgive me, but 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:40.960 I'm going to put this into simple terms, is to 0:05:41.000 --> 0:05:43.520 increase the length of the private key. So if your 0:05:43.560 --> 0:05:46.880 password become longer and longer and longer. Then you need, 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:50.840 you know, quantum squared next to break the system. Now, 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:55.279 you know, how quickly do we get quantum? You know, 0:05:55.320 --> 0:05:58.520 some people say it's imminent, other people say it's years away, 0:05:58.640 --> 0:06:01.960 some people it's theoretical. But the bottom line is about 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:07.120 one quarter of our bitcoin wallets are not resistance to 0:06:07.120 --> 0:06:09.400 what to what is called the P two p K, 0:06:11.680 --> 0:06:14.160 which is basically the fret. So it's Atoshi's original coins. 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:16.440 So no one's ever seen the move mind in two 0:06:16.480 --> 0:06:19.440 thousand and nine and ten, basically one and a half 0:06:19.440 --> 0:06:23.400 billion bitcoin or thereabouts in comparison to you know, approximately 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:27.240 twenty million in Circnnection just under and you know they 0:06:27.240 --> 0:06:30.039 would be under threat, and some other coins which have 0:06:30.120 --> 0:06:32.719 got all wallets. But you know Sailor and his results 0:06:32.720 --> 0:06:35.760 about Michael Saylor, the head of marketing for the Bitcoin 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:39.839 as I always say, and the cena of micro strategy strategy, 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:45.159 and he basically is now coming full on board with this. Yeah, 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:48.359 there's been a couple of upgrades to the bitcoin protocol 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:50.920 over the years. There was the tap route and there 0:06:50.920 --> 0:06:54.200 was a Sedgewick, and these were things that the core developers, 0:06:54.240 --> 0:06:57.000 you know, judged by the miners, can be implemented to 0:06:57.120 --> 0:06:58.120 upgrade the network. 0:06:58.760 --> 0:07:01.560 And what can I just go back? Sorry when you 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:03.720 say Michael Sailure is now fully on board with this, 0:07:03.839 --> 0:07:06.120 what do you mean with changing the security around bitcoints? 0:07:06.200 --> 0:07:08.360 Would he announce his results last night that he's going 0:07:08.360 --> 0:07:12.360 to lead a leader charged to do this. And basically, 0:07:12.480 --> 0:07:14.880 you know, if you've got an uppower and wait in 0:07:14.920 --> 0:07:18.320 the system, and you convince the month to make the upgrade, 0:07:18.360 --> 0:07:22.320 and the upgrade will happen. It's happened twice before, and 0:07:22.360 --> 0:07:24.080 so I'm not worried about that. And I think to 0:07:24.080 --> 0:07:26.240 put it into economic terms, when the price was one 0:07:26.320 --> 0:07:29.040 hundred and twenty thousand, no one cared about content. They 0:07:29.040 --> 0:07:32.960 went quantum Schmont. But now the price is crash, Everyone's like, 0:07:33.360 --> 0:07:35.640 oh dear, we better deal with concept. So they brought 0:07:35.640 --> 0:07:37.400 it to a head. You know, a crisis is an 0:07:37.400 --> 0:07:40.320 opportunity and all that, and so the price has come down. 0:07:40.480 --> 0:07:43.800 Now quantum is front of the agenda. The upgrades to 0:07:43.800 --> 0:07:47.280 the system will happen in the coming months, possibly a 0:07:47.400 --> 0:07:49.480 year or two, but it will happen ahead of any 0:07:49.520 --> 0:07:54.360 constant threat. So I personally think that the Bitcoin network 0:07:54.480 --> 0:07:56.480 is not at risk of content because they'll do the 0:07:56.560 --> 0:07:58.320 right thing in the end, because they always have done 0:07:58.320 --> 0:07:58.760 in the pucks. 0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:20.440 So back for four year cycle. 0:08:20.520 --> 0:08:24.320 Okay, A four year cycles quite fun because the thesis 0:08:24.400 --> 0:08:27.200 is that now you mind bitcoin, and there's a harvey 0:08:27.240 --> 0:08:30.200 every four years, and there's a big run in the 0:08:30.200 --> 0:08:33.640 two years ahead of or eighteen months two years ahead 0:08:33.640 --> 0:08:36.680 into inter harbing and then and then there's room and 0:08:36.720 --> 0:08:38.520 then everyone gets bored and there's a collapse in the 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:41.000 in the sort of mid terms as it were. And 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:45.440 you know, at Bikery, we've got this wonderful guy called 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:48.160 Robin Griftiths. He's in his ages now and he's been 0:08:48.200 --> 0:08:51.040 talking about the four year cycle since I could remember. 0:08:51.679 --> 0:08:54.160 And I started listening to him in nineteenninety eight, and 0:08:54.160 --> 0:08:56.000 he was talking about it about twenty years before that, 0:08:56.640 --> 0:09:00.480 and it was the UF presidential election cycle. Okay, so 0:09:00.600 --> 0:09:03.880 that's let's let's do some four years. This will shock you, Okay, 0:09:03.880 --> 0:09:07.800 We'll started nineteen seventy four. There was a savage savage 0:09:07.840 --> 0:09:10.400 bear market in nineteen seventy eight. Your pick one's on 0:09:10.400 --> 0:09:14.120 an invention at this point. Gold probably nineteen eighty two 0:09:14.280 --> 0:09:16.240 was famously the best year in history to buy the 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:19.480 stock market and probably the bond market is well. Actually 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:24.079 a huge times followed that. Eighty six comes next, Now 0:09:24.160 --> 0:09:27.640 eighty six something didn't happen, which was the top. It 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:29.319 dragged on for another year and then we got a 0:09:29.320 --> 0:09:33.400 little mighty crash. Cycle breaks and you don't get your 0:09:33.480 --> 0:09:36.680 your dip then then then there's a little theory there. 0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:39.920 So nineteen ninety that was a bit nasty, going into 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:43.120 the hydra trade era ninety four was the fed rapes 0:09:43.160 --> 0:09:48.199 crashed ninety eight, the agent Russian default crisis. Two thousand 0:09:48.160 --> 0:09:51.360 and two was the nasty old dot com leg Yeah, 0:09:51.400 --> 0:09:52.480 are you getting interested yet? 0:09:53.559 --> 0:09:54.440 Always interested? 0:09:54.800 --> 0:09:55.600 Always interested? 0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:58.720 Love as two thousand and six having happened, isn't it? 0:09:59.360 --> 0:10:00.960 And we had to wait two years and then we 0:10:00.960 --> 0:10:03.360 had a mega mega monster crash in two thousand and 0:10:03.400 --> 0:10:05.600 eight as a result of if. 0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:07.120 You have to if you have to wait two years, 0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:10.040 it doesn't count, not a four year cycle. If you 0:10:10.120 --> 0:10:11.200 keep having to wait. 0:10:11.000 --> 0:10:13.160 A year and two years the cycle quick. 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:15.200 Four year cycle was every four years. 0:10:15.280 --> 0:10:17.960 Yeah, but if you fiddle around religious states and things, 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:19.800 then maybe you can drag these things out a bit 0:10:19.840 --> 0:10:22.280 longer than they should do. So perhaps you fight the 0:10:22.280 --> 0:10:24.160 cycle for a bit, but then you stretch the band 0:10:24.240 --> 0:10:27.640 too far. So we've got to two thousand and six 0:10:27.760 --> 0:10:31.520 extended to wait twenty ten wasn't great, but we had 0:10:31.559 --> 0:10:34.040 the greed crisis as well. Okay, and now we go 0:10:34.040 --> 0:10:37.280 into the bitcoin cycle. So twenty fourteen you couldn't see 0:10:37.280 --> 0:10:40.640 it in the in the in the market so much. 0:10:41.000 --> 0:10:44.400 Fourteen was was not memorable. Bitcoin was down a lot 0:10:44.440 --> 0:10:46.040 in twenty fourteen. 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:48.840 And just bitcoin was launched in noise. It was not 0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:51.600 or nane because it was straight after the financial crisis, 0:10:51.600 --> 0:10:52.760 wasn't it that it kind. 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:56.160 Of was born first they called Crist twenty ten and 0:10:56.160 --> 0:10:58.080 people that people have heard of it in the general 0:10:58.120 --> 0:11:00.600 public had heard of it in twenty and thirty are 0:11:00.679 --> 0:11:03.520 to Mount Cox. So we now in twenty eighteen, that 0:11:03.640 --> 0:11:06.640 was another stink of a Bitcoin down eighty two percent. 0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:10.000 Then were in twenty twenty two fit coins down seventy 0:11:10.000 --> 0:11:12.320 four percent. It was also a tech bear market in 0:11:12.320 --> 0:11:15.800 twenty twenty three, and a bond bear market. Now we're 0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:18.160 in twenty twenty six. So there's your four year cycle. 0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:21.400 And I'll say it's not bitcoin cycle, it's the you know, 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:24.480 it's the world cycle. And Bitcoin is the expression of 0:11:24.520 --> 0:11:27.040 that cycle, because it's you know, as many people say, 0:11:27.080 --> 0:11:30.959 it's an expression of liquidity. And so the asset that 0:11:31.040 --> 0:11:33.120 gets hit the most is the one that's in the 0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:33.640 firing light. 0:11:34.760 --> 0:11:36.360 So should we expect it to be a bit of 0:11:36.400 --> 0:11:38.480 a canary in the cold mine? And obviously we've seen 0:11:38.520 --> 0:11:40.559 a lot of volatility in gold and silver, and also 0:11:40.600 --> 0:11:42.920 a lot on the software stocks and big tech, but 0:11:42.960 --> 0:11:44.880 that hasn't really turned up in the entities yet because 0:11:44.880 --> 0:11:47.240 there's been in quite a rotation into other stuff. Should 0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:48.800 we expect worse to happen? 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:51.160 Absolutely, one hundred percent. I mean we were all over. 0:11:51.160 --> 0:11:53.320 We're in the biggest bubble in indexation in the history 0:11:53.320 --> 0:11:55.480 of the world, and you know, the two thirds of 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:57.960 America and within the American index, you know, all this 0:11:58.040 --> 0:12:00.640 tech and stuff. So I think you're cuts has brought 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:03.640 that point out many times, and it's just it's a 0:12:03.679 --> 0:12:07.720 bleeding obvious, isn't it. And but everyone continues for for 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:11.319 for bury it's reasons career risk, regulatory so on, to 0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:14.920 to hug the indices and and those mega mega Bega 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:18.200 stocks are our ironoscope of value. But let's go back 0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:20.720 a few months. You know, we saw the Spotify's and 0:12:20.760 --> 0:12:23.280 the netflixes and those sorts of things correct, all those 0:12:23.320 --> 0:12:26.520 sort of internet leadia services. Uh, and now we've got 0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:29.560 the software, but the but the big tech hasn't really 0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:32.200 dived yet. It's always last to go. The figures is 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:34.320 last week. So you know, I do think that we 0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:36.760 found this extraordinary top but it but that does we 0:12:36.800 --> 0:12:39.800 shouldn't gay from the top stock market at all, because 0:12:39.880 --> 0:12:45.160 what we've been deserving. We run these sort of the 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:47.160 mentor models every week and we do a piece on 0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:51.360 Monday's called Global Trends by Creep Global Trends and Tree 0:12:51.400 --> 0:12:54.800 to Read, And basically we've been observing this enormous rotation 0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:57.360 and the main one is out of the US into 0:12:57.360 --> 0:12:59.720 the rest of the world. So the US we've done 0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:02.400 a because of stablished s, and t rest of the 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:05.319 world has been very strong. And then take that a 0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:08.880 stage further. We had big breakouts in consumer stakeboards, you know, 0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:12.319 the boring stocks, the toothpaste and the watching up liquid 0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:17.240 as opposed to the exciting space exploration. So we're having 0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:19.880 that rotation now and so there's only a stuff that 0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:23.720 can go up in the world when big tech stocks 0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:25.760 are going down. And of course, the indices won't be 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:29.160 very happy with the biggest stocks going down, but there's 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:32.560 loads of global midst walk cap in faraway places. You know. 0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:35.920 Everyone's an expert in AI and computers and check and things. 0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:38.319 I know. It's amazing, isn't it how quickly that happened. 0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:41.040 They're wrong with nothing about it, being an absolute expert 0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:41.640 in artists. 0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:44.720 They're all going to be in Southeast Asia and Latin 0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:46.640 America and Central Europe before you know. 0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:52.920 Oh, I mean, I'm an expert and all that stuff already, Charlie. 0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:53.800 You're an expert. We all know. 0:13:55.400 --> 0:13:58.680 This was from the last second. We haven't updated. 0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:02.240 We're apts but slightly out of date from last time round. 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:05.680 We're also experts on commodity super cycles, aren't we, John, 0:14:05.679 --> 0:14:06.520 So that might come in hand. 0:14:06.559 --> 0:14:07.880 Oh yeah, oh yeah. 0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:10.640 But Charlie, listen, the key question really is this. Has 0:14:10.679 --> 0:14:14.200 there been any change to the long term case for bitcoin? 0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:19.080 You know, so everyone thought that with President Trump's second 0:14:19.200 --> 0:14:22.640 presidency that there would be an extraordinary environment for cryptocurrencies 0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:24.880 in general, there'd be a regulatory environment that would mean 0:14:24.880 --> 0:14:27.840 they would kind of go to the moon. That hasn't 0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:31.120 quite happened, and there's also maybe competition to bitcoin in 0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:33.600 the form of the various different types of stable coin, 0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:37.680 and so there has been changed, There are shifts. Has anything, 0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:41.440 to your mind changed for the long term case for 0:14:41.520 --> 0:14:42.280 holding bitcoin. 0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:46.120 No, it's the Internet. So the Internet stocks are going down. 0:14:46.760 --> 0:14:49.560 Bitcoin's caught up in that is the Internet shrinking. 0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:56.480 I don't understand why bitcoin represents the Internet. I know 0:14:56.560 --> 0:14:59.640 it represents software. I know it's an expression of liquidity, 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:03.240 but anything else could be an expression of liquidity as well. 0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:07.200 On a different day, we've got booming stable coin industry, 0:15:08.160 --> 0:15:12.240 you know, we've got booming computers. AI is going to 0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:15.440 headgehunds will probably end up being run by AI. And 0:15:15.520 --> 0:15:18.120 there they're not going to fill around with a you know, 0:15:18.320 --> 0:15:21.240 a good old fashion pack account doing transaxles. They're going, yes, 0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:21.960 straight to crypto. 0:15:22.840 --> 0:15:25.400 And why would they just use table coins though. 0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:28.800 Well they will, but it's all part of the same ecosystem, 0:15:29.000 --> 0:15:33.720 you know, they're all connected. And I think that that bitcoin. 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:35.920 I mean, let's look at the price of pitcoin. Okay, 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:39.720 it's just crashed down to sixty pound dollars. I think 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:40.760 it's already sixty five. 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:43.480 No, No, it's back back up to sixty six. Don't worry, 0:15:43.480 --> 0:15:45.920 We've got proper volatility going here on here, yes, right, 0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:49.560 five and a half percent to sixty six two hundred 0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:52.120 and sixty seven dollars and twenty nine cents. Okay, So 0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:54.560 that's a hell of a move from sixty thousand. 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:56.040 Where it was every night, right, So I was referring 0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:59.080 to the mid of the night, and it's already covered 0:15:59.160 --> 0:16:01.680 quite a lot from that. We can express it in 0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:05.640 various different waves, and I think the important point is 0:16:05.920 --> 0:16:08.120 that the levels that it's at now are the same 0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:10.520 levels of the peak of a large cycle. So in 0:16:10.520 --> 0:16:13.680 twenty twenty one, we were flirting in the mid mid sixties, 0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:15.760 and here we are in the mid sixties. Now. The 0:16:15.760 --> 0:16:19.360 previous cycle, you know, we saw exactly the same behavior. 0:16:20.320 --> 0:16:23.160 You know that the price peeds at nineteen thousand in 0:16:23.240 --> 0:16:25.760 the end of two thousand and seven, and then in 0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:29.800 the twenty two point cycle in that bear market, it 0:16:29.840 --> 0:16:32.960 goes down to fifteen sixteen. It was below. So you know, 0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:36.760 straightforward technical analysis one oh one, where you know you're 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:38.960 all high is the next low and that sort of thing. 0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:41.720 And you know, I don't forgive me. I don't really 0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:44.360 run my vestment strategy on these theories. But with what 0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:47.200 we have for a major point resistance, we you know, 0:16:47.240 --> 0:16:50.480 Tube level pointy two twenty one, which was probably the 0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:54.200 most hype cycle ever. The thick point those levels are 0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:57.640 pretty solid, and you know, a lot of perhaps were launched, 0:16:57.680 --> 0:17:00.760 and we had you know, futures were well established by 0:17:00.840 --> 0:17:03.160 then and and all these things. 0:17:03.320 --> 0:17:06.560 Okay, So so I mean because obviously the other question 0:17:06.680 --> 0:17:11.920 here is I am infamous no coiner, but I would 0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:14.680 quite late to catch it on the next say, we'll see, 0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:18.959 I'm not having fun staying poor. So you know, you're 0:17:19.000 --> 0:17:22.240 basically saying that a roundabout here is a good time 0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:24.160 to buy if you want to get. 0:17:24.080 --> 0:17:26.760 Oh no, no, no, this can't happen. John buying his 0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:29.960 first bitcoin would literally mean that the whole world would implode. 0:17:30.520 --> 0:17:33.679 Just it's the end of crypto. When I praised that 0:17:33.720 --> 0:17:34.040 by you. 0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:37.080 Don't encourage him to do this, Charlie. 0:17:37.040 --> 0:17:42.119 John's you're ready goal. Yes, okay, so let's do a 0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:43.800 bit of bitcoin gold, should we? 0:17:44.880 --> 0:17:45.240 Yeah? 0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:53.760 Yeah, even said like that idea, and that's what said 0:17:53.800 --> 0:18:03.400 things about bitcoin and gold danger alert alert. 0:18:00.640 --> 0:18:03.760 In three seventeen. You know, very briefly, one bitcoin, we'll 0:18:03.800 --> 0:18:05.879 buy you fifteen ounces of gold that crashed down to 0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:08.720 about three and twenty nineteen, and then in the twenty 0:18:08.760 --> 0:18:11.399 one bear market, a bull market at biggettarbon, he got 0:18:11.440 --> 0:18:14.639 you thirty five ounces, so bitcoin twenty five ounces, that 0:18:14.800 --> 0:18:17.959 crashed down to about ten nine or ten. And then 0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:20.080 earlier this year you could have nearly got forty outs. 0:18:20.160 --> 0:18:22.520 You've got thirty nine outs that've got and we've now 0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:28.280 crashed down to about fourteen yep. So you know, gold 0:18:28.680 --> 0:18:30.720 is gold has had a bit of a wabble weecs 0:18:30.800 --> 0:18:34.040 lee silver and massive crash out of really strong, super 0:18:34.119 --> 0:18:37.920 strong up trends massively over or massively eyped, so they've 0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:40.840 crashed from eyes. Bitcoin was already a downtrend. It's been 0:18:40.840 --> 0:18:43.160 in the down trends is October since the announce deck 0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:45.159 beach and the text dots, so it came down and 0:18:45.240 --> 0:18:48.080 that's crashed from a down trip. So you basically got 0:18:48.800 --> 0:18:52.040 I think in the financial speak, you know, one of 0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:55.760 them's ten thousand sigma something overbought and the other's one 0:18:55.840 --> 0:18:59.880 million sigma deviations over sold. So he's basically got once 0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:02.720 for a hot marketing, which is gold, and you've got 0:19:02.840 --> 0:19:06.159 one ice cold market, which is bitcoin. And so you 0:19:06.240 --> 0:19:08.200 know which are you by your deck? And if you 0:19:08.240 --> 0:19:10.560 think bitcoin's going to zero because it's a Ponzi scheme 0:19:10.960 --> 0:19:14.119 and you you know, but the seventeen year old Ponzi scheme, 0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:16.320 but like five thousand old. 0:19:16.640 --> 0:19:19.000 Hey, they can always last longer than you think possible. 0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:23.240 Yeah, it's the only ponsy skiing with huge transparency and 0:19:23.280 --> 0:19:25.760 the public, the open blockchain and the free market and 0:19:25.960 --> 0:19:26.200 all that. 0:19:27.840 --> 0:19:29.879 To be fair, I don't think it's some points scheme. 0:19:30.000 --> 0:19:34.359 I think that is is just a lazy dismissal palsy 0:19:34.440 --> 0:19:34.760 on the head. 0:19:34.800 --> 0:19:38.119 I mean no, there will be no Ponzi on the 0:19:38.320 --> 0:19:41.880 ahead of this. It will say Charlie Morris says, buy 0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:45.280 bitcoin now if you don't want to have fun staying poor, 0:19:46.119 --> 0:19:47.880 right John, Yeah. 0:19:48.200 --> 0:19:51.280 Yeah, so I'm not really a little bit longer you 0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:52.800 think I am. It's my night job. It's not my 0:19:52.920 --> 0:19:57.120 day job. You know, you know, a big kind golga. Yes, 0:19:57.359 --> 0:20:01.520 so excuse the flood. But you know, bold gold, gold 0:20:01.640 --> 0:20:04.840 risk weighted and all that. And we listened in London 0:20:04.920 --> 0:20:07.840 three months ago, took a bold, take a bold in Germany, 0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:10.760 tick a bold in France, in the Netherlands, in Sweden 0:20:10.840 --> 0:20:12.120 and Italy, or Monday. 0:20:12.600 --> 0:20:13.960 And congratulations Charlie. 0:20:15.680 --> 0:20:19.000 And you know it's two thirds gold, one for bitcoin 0:20:19.400 --> 0:20:21.680 and basically trying to get the best out of both 0:20:21.800 --> 0:20:25.120 because the combination of the two assets is truly magical. 0:20:25.520 --> 0:20:29.960 You know, they work against each other, are consistent, low correlation, 0:20:31.880 --> 0:20:35.399 and it's a very powerful thing to own. And if 0:20:35.440 --> 0:20:38.920