WEBVTT - Goldman Commodities Scores $2.2 Billion Comeback 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.440 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:04.480 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovic. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.320 --> 0:00:09.840 you the latest news from the world to business and finance, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.680 plus technology, politics, economics, all partnising the power of Business 0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:17.160 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:20.000 analysts in more than one twenty countries. You can download 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:23.479 Bloomberg Business Weekend iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:25.439 can also listen to our radio show at two pm 0:00:25.480 --> 0:00:28.360 Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube. 0:00:28.400 --> 0:00:32.280 Search Bloomberg Global News. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. 0:00:32.280 --> 0:00:35.880 Carol Masster, Katie Greifeld in for Tim Stanovic. Hey, Katie. 0:00:35.960 --> 0:00:37.520 Some of the headlines that we saw when it comes 0:00:37.560 --> 0:00:40.200 to COVID today the President President Biden coming out saying 0:00:40.240 --> 0:00:43.240 his administration will double it's order of rapid test to 0:00:43.320 --> 0:00:46.800 send to Americans while also distributing high quality mass to 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:49.680 help fight a surge of cases of the macron varying. Right. 0:00:49.720 --> 0:00:51.320 That's something I know. Mike and I were just talking 0:00:51.360 --> 0:00:55.160 about the quality of maths. It's a difference. It it matters. Yeah, 0:00:55.200 --> 0:00:57.720 in my life. I mean, I would love to get 0:00:57.720 --> 0:00:59.680 my hands one of those masks, but I'm trying to 0:00:59.800 --> 0:01:02.800 order them off of Amazon, and it's it's you know, 0:01:02.880 --> 0:01:04.560 that's a chunk of change. Yeah, it's a chunk of 0:01:04.640 --> 0:01:06.480 change if you can get them. Hey, let's see what 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:08.839 he is seeing when it comes to the latest headlines. 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:11.199 By the way, China detecting O Macron in a second 0:01:11.240 --> 0:01:14.080 major ports city. So we continue to see outbreaks certainly 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:16.240 around the world, and for them it's tougher ahead of 0:01:16.280 --> 0:01:19.560 those Olympics. Dr Andy Pekosh, she's back with us, Professor 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:24.120 of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology at Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:27.360 School of Public Health, of course, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, Founder, 0:01:27.360 --> 0:01:30.480 Bloomberg ALP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. He joins us once again 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:33.280 on the phone from Baltimore. Dr Pekosh, good to have 0:01:33.360 --> 0:01:36.520 you back here on Bloomberg with Katie and myself. How 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:40.160 are you and what's the latest um from your perspective 0:01:40.240 --> 0:01:42.319 and the headlines that we really need to be paying 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:46.000 attention to. Well, you can see that the case surges 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:51.320 with the Macron are still at you know, unfathomably high levels. Um. 0:01:51.400 --> 0:01:53.160 I know there's some parts of the country that are 0:01:53.200 --> 0:01:55.800 hoping to see a plateau, but at the end of 0:01:55.880 --> 0:01:59.040 the day, we are we are at a such a 0:01:59.120 --> 0:02:01.680 high level of Kate says that even if things started 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:03.640 to go down, we would be at high levels of 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:07.400 cases for a week or maybe even more. Um. So 0:02:07.480 --> 0:02:09.840 it's really a matter of dealing with the surge that's 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:13.680 ongoing right now and dealing with it with the lack 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:16.320 of certain essential things that we need, like you were 0:02:16.320 --> 0:02:20.919 mentioning before testing, and various other things and dr I mean, 0:02:21.080 --> 0:02:23.560 it seems like the narrative around the omicron variant is 0:02:23.560 --> 0:02:25.800 that it's less severe. You know, you're gonna get sick, 0:02:25.800 --> 0:02:28.760 but maybe it's you know, equivalent to the common cold. 0:02:28.800 --> 0:02:31.480 I know that hasn't been the case for everyone, but uh, 0:02:31.800 --> 0:02:33.400 I mean, my dad has been joking for weeks that 0:02:33.520 --> 0:02:35.000 he doesn't want to get a macron. He wants to 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:37.160 get the variant that comes after a macron because it 0:02:37.200 --> 0:02:40.639 feels like it's been getting less and less severe. But 0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:43.959 does the science actually work that way? I mean, should 0:02:43.960 --> 0:02:47.320 we believe that the next variant that comes along will 0:02:47.360 --> 0:02:52.239 be even milder? Yeah? No, Unfortunately, the science doesn't suggest 0:02:52.639 --> 0:02:55.839 how the how COVID nineteen disease is going to change 0:02:55.880 --> 0:02:58.680 in the future. You know, I think even with all 0:02:58.720 --> 0:03:02.840 macron if you're unvaccinated, I would be very concerned about 0:03:02.840 --> 0:03:06.359 getting infected with a macron if you were unvaccinated, because 0:03:07.160 --> 0:03:09.480 those are the people that are in the hospital right 0:03:09.480 --> 0:03:11.760 now that still represent the majority of people with the 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:15.239 severe disease um you know, for the rest of the population, 0:03:15.360 --> 0:03:20.480 particularly because of our immunity that we have from vaccines 0:03:21.200 --> 0:03:26.320 um those vaccine induced immunity doesn't protect us from infection, 0:03:26.680 --> 0:03:31.520 but it is preventing lessening disease, severity, lessening symptoms. It's 0:03:31.680 --> 0:03:34.080 very similar to what we talked about on an annual 0:03:34.120 --> 0:03:38.240 basis with influenza vaccines. The vaccines are not not preventing 0:03:38.280 --> 0:03:41.160 infection as efficiently as we maybe would like them, but 0:03:41.280 --> 0:03:44.680 they really are protecting against us against severe disease and 0:03:44.680 --> 0:03:49.680 and and quickening the course of the infection in individuals. 0:03:50.400 --> 0:03:55.280 So when you look into your crystal ball, I'm curious. 0:03:55.440 --> 0:03:57.640 You know, we keep thinking, all right, it does feel 0:03:57.680 --> 0:03:59.480 like certainly better than where we were a year ago, 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:01.800 but it still is staggering to think we are in 0:04:01.880 --> 0:04:04.600 year three of this, um Dr peckash. I guess I'm 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:06.880 trying to get my head around that. Well, I always 0:04:06.920 --> 0:04:09.080 probably be living in a world with COVID, but we'll 0:04:09.200 --> 0:04:10.960 get to a point where I look at COVID just 0:04:11.040 --> 0:04:13.320 like a case of the flu. And I shouldn't say 0:04:13.400 --> 0:04:16.800 jas because the common flu every year kills thousands of 0:04:16.800 --> 0:04:20.360 people too. Right, absolutely, But but I think if there 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:23.920 is a sort of silver lining here, it's clear that 0:04:24.000 --> 0:04:28.320 people who are vaccinated and who have subsequently gotten infected 0:04:29.120 --> 0:04:33.880 have an amazingly strong immune response that's not only very high, 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:38.520 but it's also broad, meaning that it recognizes lots of 0:04:38.560 --> 0:04:41.560 different variants that have been through the population already. So 0:04:42.000 --> 0:04:46.279 this combination of vaccination and infection is going to put 0:04:46.360 --> 0:04:49.560 us at a place where severe disease for at least 0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:52.560 most of the population is going to be somewhat unlikely. 0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:57.320 You know, we'll need boosters periodically to maintain that. Um 0:04:57.320 --> 0:04:59.720 My real worry though, is, you know, we really don't 0:04:59.720 --> 0:05:03.160 know a about the high risk population. So we know 0:05:03.240 --> 0:05:06.520 the elderly are more predisposed as severe disease. We know 0:05:06.560 --> 0:05:10.080 there's certain medical conditions that make you predisposed as severe disease. 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:12.640 Those are the populations were really going to have to 0:05:12.720 --> 0:05:16.160 keep an eye on as we go forward, because we 0:05:16.200 --> 0:05:18.320 want to make sure that we're protecting them as well 0:05:18.360 --> 0:05:20.719 as as much as we're protecting the healthy part of 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:23.800 the population. And after we don't have much time left. 0:05:23.800 --> 0:05:26.240 But I would love to hear your perspective on tests 0:05:26.279 --> 0:05:28.160 because I mean, just in my own personal life, I've 0:05:28.200 --> 0:05:31.479 heard some mistrust about rapid tests, that you know, they're 0:05:31.520 --> 0:05:34.839 kind of faulty, that the PCRs the gold standard, that's 0:05:34.880 --> 0:05:38.080 what you've got to get. What do you think rapid 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:41.560 tests work, particularly when you're showing symptoms, and so they'll 0:05:41.560 --> 0:05:43.840 help you know if you're infected with COVID nineteen or 0:05:43.920 --> 0:05:47.200 if with something else. UM. Given the test shortage, though, 0:05:47.440 --> 0:05:49.560 I think a simple thing to remind people of is 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:53.400 if you've got some sort of respiratory symptoms, stay home period. 0:05:54.040 --> 0:05:56.240 If you're infected. You may be infected with COVID, you 0:05:56.279 --> 0:05:58.800 may be infected with flu, you may be infected with something. 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:01.960 So if you don't have access to a test, just 0:06:02.120 --> 0:06:05.440 keep the simple basic principles of it. If you're feeling ill, 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:10.159 stay away. UM use the rapid anagen tests if you 0:06:10.240 --> 0:06:13.560 have them. When you're symptomatic and then always with a 0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:17.240 positive rapid anagin tests confirmed that with a PCR test, 0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:21.040 because that means you have uh covid and you need 0:06:21.080 --> 0:06:24.440 to get your numbers into the public health monitoring system. 0:06:24.520 --> 0:06:27.160 All right, We always appreciate time with you, Dr Andy Pekash. 0:06:27.200 --> 0:06:31.200 She's professor of molecular microbiology and EMIL immunology at Johns 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:34.120 Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health. And of course, 0:06:34.160 --> 0:06:36.560 as we mentioned, it is supported by Michael or Bloomberg, 0:06:36.560 --> 0:06:39.120 founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg philanthropist Katie. But quickly, 0:06:39.160 --> 0:06:42.120 you can call your dad Hopie was listening, because that 0:06:42.200 --> 0:06:44.640 was some good information there. We're gonna send him the podcast. 0:06:44.760 --> 0:06:47.640 You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week and this is Bloomberg Radio. 0:06:49.000 --> 0:06:53.040 This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg 0:06:53.120 --> 0:06:57.880 Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. H Katie, we 0:06:57.880 --> 0:07:00.040 talked about it. There's a bunch of Goldman stories on 0:07:00.120 --> 0:07:03.200 the Bloomberg that are catching people's attention. I love the 0:07:03.200 --> 0:07:05.840 headline about the Goldman trading death. We haven't got their 0:07:05.839 --> 0:07:07.680 earnings yet, but they're giving us a little bit of 0:07:07.680 --> 0:07:10.440 a preview. I think, yeah, absolutely, And this is interesting 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:12.880 because it's about commodities, which I know we're about to 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:15.080 get into. But it feels like the bright spot for 0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:16.880 so long has been fixed income. But I don't know, 0:07:17.040 --> 0:07:19.800 we'll see maybe the leadership is changing. Yeah, that's a really, 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:21.920 really good point. We're gonna get into that with our 0:07:21.960 --> 0:07:25.000 own tree. Not AAJ and his financial porter at Bloomberg News. 0:07:25.000 --> 0:07:27.520 He's on the phone in New York City. UM, shree, 0:07:27.920 --> 0:07:30.040 great to have you here with us. We mentioned a 0:07:30.120 --> 0:07:33.680 most read it's a Bloomberg exclusive about their trading death, 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:38.440 their commodities trading death. What's going on again? It's truly 0:07:38.480 --> 0:07:42.800 a window into the kind of success that Waltz trading 0:07:42.840 --> 0:07:45.880 operations have seen in the last two years. The Goldman 0:07:45.920 --> 0:07:49.680 commodities business is expected to post the best performance in 0:07:49.880 --> 0:07:53.040 over the decade, and that mirror is the kind of 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:56.600 excessive successive seen a Goldman Sex and other banks. But 0:07:56.720 --> 0:07:59.600 it is a little more special than that. At Goldman 0:07:59.640 --> 0:08:03.400 Sex commodities business does have pride of place. It was 0:08:03.440 --> 0:08:06.360 the business from which you had senior leaders went on 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:11.160 to run Trading Investment Management HR, and even all of 0:08:11.200 --> 0:08:14.600 the film including president and CEO, Lloyd Blankfine and Gary 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:19.120 Cone all came through the commodities business, and in twenty 0:08:19.240 --> 0:08:23.040 seventeen through seventeen eighteen, there was a room worried that 0:08:23.120 --> 0:08:26.960 the business wasn't serious decline mirroring the what people felt 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:30.720 was a secular decline in trading across Wall Street. But 0:08:31.000 --> 0:08:34.280 much like everything else that these businesses have touched since 0:08:34.320 --> 0:08:36.959 the onset of the pandemic, you have seen a remarkable 0:08:37.000 --> 0:08:39.960 done around the fortune, and the commodities is just a 0:08:40.040 --> 0:08:43.720 microcosm of that. And so I love, I love the 0:08:43.720 --> 0:08:46.720 headline that this trading death the Commodities says it dodged 0:08:46.880 --> 0:08:50.360 the Acts, minting billions again. But I mean it feels 0:08:50.480 --> 0:08:53.720 very fickle that. Obviously we've seen a ton of just 0:08:54.280 --> 0:08:58.600 chaos almost in the energy markets. But I mean, could 0:08:58.600 --> 0:09:02.240 the Acts come again when things inevitably slow down or 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:04.520 does this the fact that they are so profitable right 0:09:04.559 --> 0:09:08.240 now does not buy them time. Kittie, You're absolutely right 0:09:08.280 --> 0:09:10.680 about the whole idea of it being fickled, because remember 0:09:10.720 --> 0:09:13.720 when it was at its lowest point in twenty seventeen, 0:09:13.880 --> 0:09:16.160 the business was pulling in revenue that was less than 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:18.280 ten percent of what it would normally do in its 0:09:18.320 --> 0:09:20.680 best years, they would say this worries and at that 0:09:20.760 --> 0:09:23.160 time the film like Goldman, Fax was also having a 0:09:23.360 --> 0:09:26.960 leadership transition where when s the traiders rule the firm, 0:09:27.000 --> 0:09:29.720 you had a bunch of advisory bank or suddenly rising 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:32.120 to the tops. And when those people look at a 0:09:32.160 --> 0:09:36.240 business like a commodities trading desk, basically something that's scary, 0:09:36.280 --> 0:09:39.880 complicated and volatiles that sucks up way too much capital, 0:09:40.160 --> 0:09:43.720 paltry revenues and return when equities that would antagonize and 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:47.520 scare away a lot of shareholder, but those who wanted 0:09:47.559 --> 0:09:49.640 to stick it out and those who wanted to keep 0:09:49.679 --> 0:09:54.000 the business make the point that it is counterslick, circlical 0:09:54.320 --> 0:09:58.119 in nature. It has its best years and moments of turbulence. 0:09:58.440 --> 0:10:01.640 The best performances for that desk was it's sort of 0:10:01.679 --> 0:10:04.800 in the two thousand, seven, eight nine ten period when 0:10:05.320 --> 0:10:08.319 not a lot of other things were going great in finance, 0:10:08.679 --> 0:10:10.960 and now since on set of the pandemic, when you 0:10:11.040 --> 0:10:13.880 have negative oil prices and then shooting back up to 0:10:13.920 --> 0:10:17.319 eighty dollars, you have a power grid failures in the US, 0:10:17.320 --> 0:10:20.360 frenzy price action in the European gas and power market. 0:10:21.240 --> 0:10:23.880 When you have a business that is able to participate 0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:27.280 in all those price moves, they will come out and 0:10:27.320 --> 0:10:30.440 looking good. And that's where Goldman's acts will come UM. 0:10:30.480 --> 0:10:32.560 One of the longer term implications of this tree in 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:34.440 terms of I'm thinking of other firms who are looking 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:37.240 at this UM, I mean, I don't know what changes 0:10:37.280 --> 0:10:43.040 of anything. Much like we talked about how the commodities 0:10:43.040 --> 0:10:45.600 business is a microcosm what was happening across all of training, 0:10:45.600 --> 0:10:49.360 it's also a window into what the commodities business itself 0:10:49.400 --> 0:10:52.280 is looking like. Goldman's in house animalst Jeff Curry widely 0:10:52.440 --> 0:10:55.080 followed Voice and Energy Markets came out and said that 0:10:55.240 --> 0:10:58.800 you know, we're entering another supercycle that could last another decade. 0:10:59.040 --> 0:11:01.960 Jeff Curry for rose to prominence in the mid two 0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:07.559 thousand when he called a bullmarket that was going to 0:11:07.640 --> 0:11:10.520 be in place and lost for a while because of 0:11:10.520 --> 0:11:13.800 the China driven boom, and he forecast all prices going 0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:16.400 above hundred dollars. Peoples Right ultimately went up to about 0:11:16.480 --> 0:11:19.240 hundred and forty dollars. And when he says that this 0:11:19.720 --> 0:11:23.560 period of a lot of interesting price action will continue 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:26.200 to take place for over a decade. You will be 0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:29.320 surprised if suddenly a lot of other banks are thinking 0:11:29.360 --> 0:11:33.040 about beefing up their trading operations, trying to become more visible. 0:11:33.920 --> 0:11:35.480 You have to be committed, and you have to be 0:11:35.520 --> 0:11:37.839 certain you want to take the plans because there will 0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:40.640 be a lot of courts associated with the business and 0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:43.480 a lot of capital charges, so you better be prepared 0:11:43.640 --> 0:11:47.400 to guts it out. But the rewards can be plenty 0:11:47.520 --> 0:11:50.439 and pretty if you end up on top of the plan. 0:11:51.240 --> 0:11:53.360 And sure, we have just about forty seconds. But I 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:56.120 am curious now. I mentioned fixed income trading that had 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:58.360 been the bright spot, it felt like, through the pandemic. 0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:01.120 But we got those Jefferies results yesterday. You saw a 0:12:01.160 --> 0:12:04.920 big drop off there, at least for this quarter. I mean, 0:12:04.960 --> 0:12:07.680 are are the energy traders expected to be the all stars? 0:12:09.320 --> 0:12:12.319 Look the energy trading this sits within six income. And 0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:14.720 when the Jeffreyes six income numbers came through, you saw 0:12:14.760 --> 0:12:18.079 what happened. They posted a slowdown in the sick business 0:12:18.120 --> 0:12:21.080 and the shares at one point put down ten prevents 0:12:21.080 --> 0:12:22.839 for the day. So when the bank's report on and 0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:24.640 over the next week, it will be a tale of 0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:27.520 two hubs. Everyone will look at a rear ru mirror 0:12:27.600 --> 0:12:29.880 and will be very pleased with how they performed. They 0:12:29.920 --> 0:12:32.960 will be extremely keen to hear their forecasts and predictions 0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:35.640 for what lies ahead, because that's what is really going 0:12:35.679 --> 0:12:38.400 to say the stop price movement. They want to see 0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:41.920 if that brilliant action that we've seen over the last 0:12:41.920 --> 0:12:44.880 two months canned, They in place or we're a waiting 0:12:44.880 --> 0:12:48.200 a soda. Alright, good stuff. Um. As I mentioned, there's 0:12:48.240 --> 0:12:50.559 like three stories among the top ten on the bloom 0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:54.000 Park among the most right, UH, and that includes Shere's 0:12:54.000 --> 0:12:57.199 exclusive and financial port Bloomberg News with the latest and 0:12:57.240 --> 0:12:59.760 comment sack Stock up about half a percent today. You're 0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:03.800 senaing to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg 0:13:03.920 --> 0:13:08.079 Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio Katie. The Bloomberg 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:10.440 Business Week Your Head issue. It's out. They are looking 0:13:10.440 --> 0:13:12.719 at the trends, the companies, the movements, so things are 0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:14.920 really going to watch out for UH this year, and 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:17.840 that includes a story on Hollywood heading back to theaters 0:13:18.280 --> 0:13:21.040 and really hoping that movie goers end up following That. 0:13:21.080 --> 0:13:23.640 New issue is out on newsstands online at Bloomberg dot com. 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:26.360 Backslash business Week and also on the Bloomberg terminal. Let's 0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:28.600 bring in Bloomberg business Week at or Joel Webber. He's 0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:31.079 on the Access line in Brooklyn along with Bloomberg News 0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:33.680 reporter Brian Eckhouse on the phone in l A. Joel, 0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:36.320 have you been back to a movie theater? I have, 0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:39.640 and it was like, uh, one of my favorite moments 0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:42.600 in that pandemic. It was like, you know, you know, 0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:45.040 I wanted to make sure that I saw done on 0:13:45.080 --> 0:13:47.439 a big screen and it was totally worth it. I 0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:50.440 love doing it, um and you know, if it weren't 0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:52.600 for Oh Macron, I would be there like every week, 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:56.520 I think, um so, so I'm bullish on on movie 0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:58.480 theaters in general. I think it's a it's a thing 0:13:58.520 --> 0:14:01.080 that people love doing and I want to be doing 0:14:01.080 --> 0:14:05.600 it again. And I think Hollywood feels the same, right Brian, Yeah, 0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:09.400 they do. Uh. It's definitely a big push to get 0:14:10.320 --> 0:14:15.280 big films established film names that Batman coming in March 0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:18.920 and others to write trying to make a event and 0:14:19.040 --> 0:14:23.800 experience again. June was available on HBO Max. That's right, 0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:27.120 saw it. It was beautiful that didn't have the sweep 0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:29.000 that you would have seen on a big screen that 0:14:29.120 --> 0:14:33.400 Joel had. Okay, I'm curious to hear you haven't been, 0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:35.680 have you? I have not been. The last movie I 0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:39.200 saw in theaters January, cats have not been back since 0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:41.960 I heard that. Fitting I could have guessed that's what 0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:45.560 you saw. Unfortunately I have a very defined brand. But 0:14:45.640 --> 0:14:49.160 in any case, Brian talked to me about, you know, 0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:53.120 the theater exclusivity, because you have sort of seen this 0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:56.760 trend emerge where Okay, a movie will get released in theaters, 0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:59.800 it's exclusive to theaters for forty five days. I think 0:14:59.800 --> 0:15:03.120 it's stat I saw, and then it's available online on 0:15:03.240 --> 0:15:07.440 streaming services. I mean, is that the way of the future. 0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:10.520 Our theater is trying to change that? Well, it's the 0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:13.120 way of right now for the pandemic. You know, we 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:16.520 would see films come out on streaming services three months 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:19.520 after it hits theaters. Before then, it was a lot 0:15:20.000 --> 0:15:24.520 longer of a time period. Last year, some of the studios, 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:29.840 including Warner Brothers, they put films simultaneously in theaters and 0:15:29.880 --> 0:15:33.840 on services like HBO Max. Uh. Theaters didn't like that. 0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:38.320 It really crimp their there were seats, so sort of 0:15:38.320 --> 0:15:41.520 a compromise and experiment going forward to doing that forty 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:44.440 five days thing you're talking about really have films and 0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:48.040 theaters if it hits theaters for you know, a month 0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:50.520 and a half, and then it'll hit HBO Max, it'll 0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:57.960 hit Peacock, Paramount Plus and others. So Brian talk to 0:15:58.040 --> 0:15:59.800 us about what it's going to take for you to 0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:02.120 get into a theater. Is it gonna be Tom Cruise 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:05.280 and is it gonna be Tom top Gun or is 0:16:05.280 --> 0:16:08.960 it gonna be Tom Cruise Mission impossible? That's the question 0:16:09.560 --> 0:16:12.120 before a macron. I was looking forward to seeing Lucorice Pizza, 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:15.120 which is the theaters right now, the latest all tom 0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:18.000 Aul Thomas Anderson movie. I haven't seen it yet, looking 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:20.840 forward to seeing it. I think The Batman in March 0:16:20.920 --> 0:16:24.600 might be what gets me out next. And what about Hollywood? 0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:26.720 Like the first movie that we're really going to see 0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:30.080 this strategy come to bear on is going to be Ambulance, Right, 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:34.640 that's one of the first coming out Peacock's film and 0:16:35.360 --> 0:16:37.920 sorry it's the universal film that will hit theaters in 0:16:37.960 --> 0:16:40.600 April and then four ane days later it will be 0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:43.600 on Peacock. Um. I think we're to see a film 0:16:43.640 --> 0:16:47.600 mcannel last week from Universal. Very similar will be on 0:16:47.680 --> 0:16:51.280 Peacock probably in late February. You know, I do wonder 0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:54.480 too about the increased competition just for talent and content, right, 0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:56.960 the streaming services are still going to be competing for 0:16:57.080 --> 0:16:59.800 lots of stuff. Um, you know, what does this do 0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:01.880 to the price of things, especially as we kind of 0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:05.200 increasingly move towards normal any indications, I mean, it sounds 0:17:05.200 --> 0:17:06.639 like box office receipts are still going to be a 0:17:06.640 --> 0:17:08.800 little bit down once we get back to a little 0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:12.520 bit more normal. Yeah, I mean, we'll see receipts be 0:17:12.720 --> 0:17:15.720 below where they were before the pandemic, although it'll almost 0:17:15.760 --> 0:17:18.399 certainly do nearly double what it was last year, So 0:17:18.800 --> 0:17:20.520 theaters are gonna see a bit of a return, not 0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:23.280 what it was, you know, pre covid. Uh. In terms 0:17:23.320 --> 0:17:25.960 of streaming sites, you know, they're focusing really heavily, and 0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:31.000 you said on driving new subscriptions, on growth, and for 0:17:31.040 --> 0:17:35.200 a lot of the studios, they're focused increasingly on these services, 0:17:35.680 --> 0:17:37.760 even more so in some cases than when they put 0:17:37.760 --> 0:17:42.399 in theaters. And Brian, you mentioned simultaneous releases, you know, 0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:45.480 putting big films out online and in theaters at the 0:17:45.560 --> 0:17:48.760 same time. There's I get it. They didn't like that model. 0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:53.879 Did anyone like it? Though? How did those films actually perform? 0:17:53.920 --> 0:17:57.440 A lot of the films had old box office receipts 0:17:57.920 --> 0:18:02.600 um King Richard was on HBO Acts in November around 0:18:02.600 --> 0:18:07.360 Thanksgiving simultaneous release. It was pretty well viewed online. It 0:18:07.400 --> 0:18:11.119 didn't get a great box office. Um, we've seen that 0:18:11.119 --> 0:18:13.560 in other cases as well. Matrix did okay last month, 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:17.720 but again it had that release at home. In the 0:18:17.720 --> 0:18:19.359 case of June, again, I saw that at home. I 0:18:19.359 --> 0:18:23.320 didn't see that in theaters. Um, it may adult. You know. 0:18:23.400 --> 0:18:28.600 The box office for seats or grows for these films 0:18:28.560 --> 0:18:32.640 was a particularly interesting case study, Brian, because it was like, 0:18:33.200 --> 0:18:35.640 you know, one of the things that I jumped out 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:39.080 to me as we're looking at this lineup where you've got, 0:18:39.560 --> 0:18:42.679 you know, a Batman movie and Tom Cruise movies like 0:18:42.720 --> 0:18:45.480 these are like Avatar to which we haven't even mentioned, 0:18:45.520 --> 0:18:49.639 Like we've got we've got known entities and Hollywood always 0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:52.280 loves the sure thing. At the same time, it's like 0:18:52.320 --> 0:18:53.840 I kind of want to go to a theater and 0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:58.640 just see a big, awesome movie that isn't a thing 0:18:58.800 --> 0:19:02.200 I've seen before, you know, Jurassic World being uh, yet 0:19:02.200 --> 0:19:04.560 another thing that's coming out. So it's so Carol. Katie, 0:19:04.960 --> 0:19:07.960 here's my question for you. Are you more inclined to 0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:10.359 go see something that's all, you know, a known entity, 0:19:10.480 --> 0:19:12.359 or do you want to see something that's totally new 0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:14.919 from Hollywood in the theater. And what's the thing that 0:19:14.960 --> 0:19:16.560 brings you back? About you, Katy, I want to see 0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:19.240 my dinosaurs up on the big screen, just totally, but 0:19:19.280 --> 0:19:21.920 I think a known entity, I'm willing to be like, Okay, 0:19:21.960 --> 0:19:23.280 I know that's something I want to see on the 0:19:23.280 --> 0:19:25.200 big screen. What about you, Katie? Yeah, you know I 0:19:25.200 --> 0:19:29.639 would go in for cats too, but in terms like 0:19:29.840 --> 0:19:31.879 to get me into the theater again, I mean I 0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:34.400 was I'm I'm terrible at watching movies. I just fall 0:19:34.400 --> 0:19:37.359 asleep anyway, so I'm probably not the target audience that 0:19:37.440 --> 0:19:40.600 these theaters are worried about. Anyway. What about you, Joel, Well, 0:19:42.359 --> 0:19:45.600 I'll go back, you know the moment that um, I 0:19:45.600 --> 0:19:47.560 can go into Date to Night and not you know, 0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:54.480 be worried about Omicron Like, I will take that option, please, Brian. Yeah, 0:19:54.480 --> 0:19:56.199 I mean I think what's really good for Hollywood this 0:19:56.280 --> 0:19:58.919 year is because of the postponment from COVID. You had 0:19:59.000 --> 0:20:02.600 this really a strong slate of big movies. Uh, this 0:20:02.680 --> 0:20:04.400 is really gonna test whether people want to come out 0:20:04.440 --> 0:20:06.800 those theaters are not because you have such a robust 0:20:07.000 --> 0:20:12.080 lineup of well known content. Yeah, I'm missing those big, 0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:14.560 cushy seats. You now, you kick back if you go up, 0:20:14.720 --> 0:20:17.719 And I'm just gonna say, um, alright, guys, fingers crossed, 0:20:17.800 --> 0:20:20.680 we can get back to those uh movie theaters more 0:20:20.720 --> 0:20:24.520 so in Joe Weber, Editor Bloomberg business Week and Brian 0:20:24.560 --> 0:20:27.040 Nett Cass, reporter at Bloomberg News. Catch the year ahead 0:20:27.119 --> 0:20:31.480 issue of Bloomberg Business Week on newsstands, online at Bloomberg 0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:34.720 dot com and also on the Bloomberg terminal. This is 0:20:34.720 --> 0:20:39.679 Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser 0:20:39.880 --> 0:20:44.320 and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. This 0:20:44.480 --> 0:20:46.960 definitely shut up on our radar today. It's about the 0:20:46.960 --> 0:20:49.800 many scandals over at metaformally known of course, is Facebook 0:20:50.320 --> 0:20:52.880 and Katie how some of this may be a bit 0:20:52.960 --> 0:20:56.920 demoralizing for employees. Um when you think it's the case, 0:20:57.000 --> 0:21:00.320 especially as they're trying to recruit folks in it like what, 0:21:00.760 --> 0:21:03.680 I would think that's a pretty difficult on their recruiting 0:21:03.720 --> 0:21:05.840 team to catch my eye that it didn't seem like 0:21:05.840 --> 0:21:08.080 a lot of the disfaction had to do with COVID, 0:21:08.119 --> 0:21:10.000 which I feel like when we hear about employee morale 0:21:10.119 --> 0:21:12.120 has to do more with COVID than anything else. But 0:21:12.440 --> 0:21:14.280 now with Meta, Yeah, it's a really good point. Hey, 0:21:14.359 --> 0:21:16.480 let's get all the details that Bloomberg News tech reporter 0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:19.359