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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure

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Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Is Trump going to guarantee

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Speaker 1: Ukraine's security after a deal with Russia is reached by

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Speaker 1: putting US troops into Ukraine. This is the single biggest

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Speaker 1: question that came out of today's meeting at the White House.

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Speaker 1: President Trump has said, quote, he's going to give a

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Speaker 1: lot of help, a lot of help to Ukraine when

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Speaker 1: he had this meeting with Zelensky. A very different tone

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Speaker 1: from the President as he sat down this time with

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Speaker 1: Zelenski the last time, six months ago, these two had

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Speaker 1: a meeting. And I think what it shows is one

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Speaker 1: how much President Trump is dedicated to the idea of

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Speaker 1: getting a deal done. I mean, this is an absolute

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Speaker 1: focus of his administration. He could not have more input

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Speaker 1: and more drive into this process. And beyond that, he's

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Speaker 1: willing to take some pretty severe or serious steps depending

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Speaker 1: on who you ask. We don't know if it means

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Speaker 1: they'll be troops US troops as part of this guarantee.

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Speaker 1: Here's the problem, though, If this guarantee is going to

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Speaker 1: be worthy of the name, it can't just be economic

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Speaker 1: if Russia and Ukraine put down their weapons, divvy up

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Speaker 1: the land, and then there's a an agreed upon DMZ

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Speaker 1: if you will, something like a demilitarized zone, some kind

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Speaker 1: of a buffer zone between the countries, which won't be

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Speaker 1: very substantial, but it'll be very heavily armed and mined

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Speaker 1: and built up. If that's where this is all heading,

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Speaker 1: there has to be a reasonable belief on the side

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Speaker 1: of the Ukrainians that Russia's not just going to rearm,

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Speaker 1: re equip and then just punch through again in a

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Speaker 1: few years, probably when you don't have Donald Trump as

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Speaker 1: president in this country, waiting for some wimpy Democrat administration

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Speaker 1: to come along who won't do anything. But the possibility

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Speaker 1: even of US troops as part of the guarantee has

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Speaker 1: a lot of people in MAGA asking questions because certainly

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Speaker 1: at this stage of the game we've all seen there

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Speaker 1: are a lot of people who are really pro Trump

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Speaker 1: and want the Ukraine war to end, but they're single

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Speaker 1: guiding their single issue vote if you will, on this

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Speaker 1: that they're guiding principle on. This is no US troops involved,

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Speaker 1: This is not our fight. Now, we wouldn't be getting

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Speaker 1: into the fight in the short term. But if we're

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Speaker 1: going to put ourselves in a place where the United States,

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Speaker 1: let's say, has a military base in Ukraine, that would

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Speaker 1: be the most straightforward way of doing this. It would

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Speaker 1: be something like what we have in South Korea and

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Speaker 1: what we have in Germany. Now, a lot of MAGA

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Speaker 1: is going to say absolutely not, this is what we

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Speaker 1: don't want. Perhaps it doesn't go to this. I'm just

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Speaker 1: working through what the possibilities are, what a security guarantee

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Speaker 1: could really look like, because the Ukrainians are smart enough

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Speaker 1: to know that a security quote guarantee that only involve

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Speaker 1: sanctions is not worth the paper it's printed on. I

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Speaker 1: mean the Russians, we can't hit them hard enough economically

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Speaker 1: to get them to stop doing this. We can't get

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Speaker 1: putin to turn the tanks around because the ruble is

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Speaker 1: getting hit too hard. It's not it hasn't happened in years.

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Speaker 1: It's not going to happen, not while they're a fossil

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Speaker 1: fuel superpower, which, unfortunately, because of their natural resources, they

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Speaker 1: still are oil and gas. They got a lot of it,

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Speaker 1: a lot of fertilizer too, So that means that we

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Speaker 1: have to see this through beyond just the economic implications.

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Speaker 1: And this is where Trump is saying, there's going to

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Speaker 1: be a lot of help. Now there's the US base,

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Speaker 1: US basing rights, or a basing situation in Ukraine. That's

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Speaker 1: one way this could go. We could have something like

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Speaker 1: US promises of military support direct military intervention if Russia invades.

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Speaker 1: But now either one of these situations that would seem

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Speaker 1: to be a little bit of a lesser one. Ukrainians

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Speaker 1: wouldn't want that. I'm sure they want to base a

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Speaker 1: US base there, although there's some sovereignty issues for them

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Speaker 1: too with that, but I think they would want it nonetheless.

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Speaker 1: But the issue then becomes is this just a backdoor

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Speaker 1: Article five NATO situation? Does this then just turn into

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Speaker 1: the perhaps biggest redline that Putin has in all of

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Speaker 1: this is Ukraine cannot be a staging ground. This isn't

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Speaker 1: his thinking. I know, people say, oh, that's a Russian

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Speaker 1: talking point. Yeah, well this is what he says, and

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Speaker 1: I think we can all agree this is what he thinks,

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Speaker 1: or at least he says out loud. If it's going

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Speaker 1: to be any attack on Ukraine is triggering a US

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Speaker 1: military a direct military response like our planes in the sky,

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Speaker 1: our troops on the ground, even if it's solely defensive

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Speaker 1: a nature, meaning we're not going to go into Russian territory,

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Speaker 1: but we're going to try to support Ukraine. That looks

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Speaker 1: like Article five NATO, doesn't it. So how could Putin

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Speaker 1: sign off on his side of the deal if he

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Speaker 1: is giving away what would be the biggest stumbling block

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Speaker 1: I would assume for the Russians in this whole thing,

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Speaker 1: which is, No, you can't have a Ford operating base

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Speaker 1: of NATO, a de facto Ford operating base of NATO

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Speaker 1: in Ukraine, which is he says, the whole reason for

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Speaker 1: this war. I think the real reason for this war

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Speaker 1: is a resource grab. It is Russian expansionism, irridentism, Russian imperialism, Yes,

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Speaker 1: all of that, but certainly the ostensible reason, or the

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Speaker 1: you could say the fig leaf, the pretextual reason, is

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Speaker 1: to prevent the encroachment of NATO right onto Russia's Russia's

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Speaker 1: borders with Ukraine. And that's where this thing gets really

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Speaker 1: really messy. We'll come back to it. You know, our

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Speaker 1: out today. Okay, so US security guarantee for Russia, you know,

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Speaker 1: or for Ukraine rather against Russian aggression. This is all

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Speaker 1: feeling a lot like it is tied into at least

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Speaker 1: an analogous to what we've seen in World War One

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Speaker 1: with the style of warfare. It is largely trench warfare

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Speaker 1: with drones. That's the best way to describe what the

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Speaker 1: front in Ukraine is based on all the reports you

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Speaker 1: can read, and it's pretty stunning how deep the fortifications,

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Speaker 1: the ground fortifications are. They've referred to it well. They

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Speaker 1: want to avoid calling an imagine no line for Ukraine

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Speaker 1: because of what happened to the French Magino line, but

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Speaker 1: that is probably the closest historical analogy, and when you

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Speaker 1: see what the plan is here, it's going to be

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Speaker 1: to make it impossible for Russia to advance further in

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Speaker 1: its territorial ambitions and to strengthen the defensive perimeter of Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: But there's no future in which anyone sees Ukraine punching

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Speaker 1: across that no man's land, if you will, and taking

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Speaker 1: the fight to the Russians in territory they currently truly

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Speaker 1: control and expelling them all from Ukraine. So that means

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Speaker 1: you're going to have territorial concessions. That part of it,

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Speaker 1: I think is unavoidable. And that part of it is

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Speaker 1: I think where you're going to see a lot of

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Speaker 1: pushback from our press because they're going to say Trump,

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Speaker 1: if we do get to a deal, first of all,

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Speaker 1: no matter what the deal is, there are going to

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Speaker 1: be the Trump haters out there who say the deal

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Speaker 1: is not good enough. He pushed them into this, he

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Speaker 1: sold out Ukraine, because the one thing they cannot accept,

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Speaker 1: they will not accept, is that Trump has done anything

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Speaker 1: good here, that Trump has done something perhaps even worthy

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Speaker 1: of a Nobel prize if we get there right now.

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Speaker 1: That's not the case right now, it's a best effort,

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Speaker 1: but we have to be very honest about what the

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Speaker 1: implications are here. If he gets this through, and it

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Speaker 1: will be the most impressive win on the world stage

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Speaker 1: by a president I really think since Reagan and the

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Speaker 1: fall of the Berlin Wall. I don't know what else

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Speaker 1: could be equivalent to this, because Trump will have brought

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Speaker 1: together this negotiation and ended a massive conflict between advanced

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Speaker 1: military's advanced economies. This isn't, you know, some third world

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Speaker 1: counterinsurgency campaign somewhere. This is Russia with a lot of nukes.

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Speaker 1: This is a big deal, and up is doing everything

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Speaker 1: he can to bring this thing to a conclusion. It's

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Speaker 1: so bloody and it's such a horrific loss of life

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Speaker 1: on both sides. So on a humanitarian front, you would

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Speaker 1: just want this to end as quickly as possible because

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Speaker 1: of the horrendous casualties that are mounting and a generation

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Speaker 1: of Russians, a generation of Ukrainians lost. And I understand

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Speaker 1: we're to think that the Russians are the bad guys,

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Speaker 1: and certainly Putin is the aggressor here. I'm very clear

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Speaker 1: on that. I understand, and we've been able to see

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Speaker 1: this all along. Putin is not a good person. He's

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Speaker 1: not an ethical person the way we think of ethics.

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Speaker 1: But a lot of these Russian conscripts, you know, they

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Speaker 1: just think they're fighting for their country. They're fighting because

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Speaker 1: they have no choice. They don't want to go to

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Speaker 1: prison or they don't want to be you know, beaten

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Speaker 1: by the FSB and conscripted anyway. So they're in a

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Speaker 1: tough situation. You know, the average Russian who's being thrown

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Speaker 1: onto the front lines here doesn't really have a choice,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of Ukrainians are also in that situation

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Speaker 1: where they don't have much of a choice, if at all.

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Speaker 1: And I know there's been very aggressive conscription on the

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Speaker 1: Ukrainian side of things too, So I feel bad. These

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Speaker 1: are human beings. These are human beings who are living

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Speaker 1: in trenches, who are hoping that they don't have a

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Speaker 1: drone flown right at them, that explodes right next to them,

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Speaker 1: and if it doesn't just kill them outright, horrifically maims them,

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Speaker 1: you know, takes their arm, maybe half their face. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's awful, awful stuff that's going on here, and so

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Speaker 1: we can know who's in charge of pieces of territory

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Speaker 1: that most Americans honestly still and this isn't a knock

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Speaker 1: on Americans who can't but most Americans still can't find

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Speaker 1: this stuff on a map. And why should they. It's

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Speaker 1: very far away. It's not you know, it's not their thing.

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Speaker 1: It's not our problem. You know, this isn't a territorial

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Speaker 1: dispute between Mexico and Arizona. This isn't really our problem

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Speaker 1: in that sense. But because where America, I guess anything

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Speaker 1: becomes our problem if it's big enough anywhere in the world,

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Speaker 1: and this is certainly big enough. So I'm very hopeful

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Speaker 1: that Trump will be able to move this to a

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Speaker 1: better place and get the bloodshed to stop, and it

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Speaker 1: will be remarkable if that is in fact the case.

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Speaker 1: We're also seeing here a preview I think of what

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Speaker 1: warfare in the future is going to look like, particularly

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Speaker 1: with the drones, but also increasingly with a combination of

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Speaker 1: technology and manufacturing. It's not just going to be who

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Speaker 1: has the most advanced stuff. It's going to be who

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Speaker 1: can make this stuff at scale? That and a whole

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Speaker 1: bunch of different things, different kinds of drone, different kinds

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Speaker 1: of munitions. So the the industrial backbone, you know, the US,

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Speaker 1: once it got going in World War Two, the US

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Speaker 1: industrial and economic might was just so incredible that we

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Speaker 1: were able to eventually just steamroll the bad guys, particularly

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Speaker 1: in the Pacific theater. We just could make more planes,

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Speaker 1: better planes, more, you know, we had more and better everything,

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Speaker 1: and we yeah, it was our brave on the front lines,

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Speaker 1: but it was also the machinery back home that was

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Speaker 1: making all this stuff. And that's what warfare in the

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Speaker 1: future is gonna We're gonna it's gonna look like we're

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Speaker 1: gonna get away from the continued Third World counterinsurgency operations

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Speaker 1: of the anti g hottest GWAT campaigns and move toward

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Speaker 1: what kind of drones can you fly that can take

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Speaker 1: out a tank? What kind of drones do you have

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Speaker 1: or missiles do you have that can take out major

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Speaker 1: naval surface ships? I mean this is these are the

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Speaker 1: calculations going forward. I think they're going to be dominating

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Speaker 1: warfare and our focus of it. So there's gonna there's

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Speaker 1: a lot that's being learned because there's no laboratory of

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Speaker 1: warfare quite like a war. As all history shows us.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot that's being learned on the front lines

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Speaker 1: in Ukraine that will be applicable for our own defense

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Speaker 1: as well as other countries, other allies of ours defense

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Speaker 1: going forward. I'm thinking about Taiwan and China obviously in

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Speaker 1: a big way. Uh you know, the time ease. I'm

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Speaker 1: sure I have a lot that they are learning from

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Speaker 1: being able to stop a power that is superior in

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Speaker 1: materiel and manpower overall. But with the right techno, with

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Speaker 1: the right technology and the right interlocking fields of fire

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Speaker 1: if you will, from the whether it's anti aircraft, anti

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Speaker 1: personnel trenches, all these things brought together a much smaller

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Speaker 1: but technologically advanced power can be formidable on the defensive.

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Speaker 1: So that may be very good news for Taiwan. But

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Speaker 1: it's something that we're seeing play out now. You know.

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Speaker 1: Our sponsor here is Paradigm Press. Our federal government has

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